2020 United States presidential election in Alaska
![]() | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Turnout | 60.67% (![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Elections in Alaska |
---|
![]() |
The 2020 United States presidential election in Alaska took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.[1] Alaska voters chose three electors[2] to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. The Libertarian, Green, Constitution, and Alliance Party nominees were also on the ballot, as was an Independent candidate.
Prior to the election, 13 of 14 news organizations making predictions considered this a state Trump would win, or otherwise a red state. Since it was admitted into the Union in 1959, Alaska has voted for the Republican nominee in every single election except 1964[3] in Lyndon B. Johnson's nationwide landslide, when he carried it with 65.91% of the vote.[4] However, some analysts believed Alaska could be competitive based on polling.[5][6]
Despite not being a swing state, Alaska was one of the last states to be called; the state did not start counting absentee ballots or early votes that were cast after October 29 until November 10.[7] Mail-in votes only had to be received by November 13 for them to be counted, and counting had to be completed by November 18.[8] As a result, Alaska was called for Trump on November 11.[9] He won the state by 10.06%, the closest margin in the state since 1992. Biden received the highest percentage of the vote for a Democrat in the state since 1964. It was also the second time a Democrat won over 40% of the vote in the state since 1968, the first being Barack Obama in 2012.[10]
Alaska shifted 4.67% to the Democratic nominee compared to the 2016 election. The state ultimately weighed in as 14.51 percentage points more Republican than the national average in 2020. Biden was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win Anchorage since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and the first Democrat to receive a majority in Haines Borough since 1964.
Primary elections
[edit]Canceled Republican primary
[edit]On September 21, 2019, the Alaska Republican Party became one of several state Republican parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses. The party argued that a primary would be useless with an incumbent Republican president.[11]
Of the 29 total delegates, 3 is allocated to the at-large congressional district, 10 to at-large delegates, and another 3 are allocated to pledged party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates). 13 bonus delegates were allocated.
The state party still formally conducted the higher meetings in their walking subcaucus-type delegate selection system. The legislative district conventions were held on the four consecutive Saturdays from February 8 to 29 to select delegates to the Alaska State Republican Convention. At the Alaska State Republican Convention, which took place from April 2 to April 4, 2020, the state party formally bound all 29 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[12]
The 26 pledged delegates Alaska sent to the national convention were joined by 3 pledged PLEO delegates, consisting of the National Committeeman, National Committeewoman, and chairman of the Alaska Republican Party.
Democratic primary
[edit]The Alaska Democratic primary was originally scheduled for April 4, 2020. On March 23, due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic, the Alaska Democratic Party canceled in-person voting, but extended mail-in voting to April 10.[13]
Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[15] |
---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden | 10,834 | 54.83 | 8 |
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) | 8,755 | 44.31 | 7 |
Inactive votes[a] | 170 | 0.86 | |
Total | 19,759 | 100% | 15 |
Libertarian nominee
[edit]No contest was held for the Libertarian Party's nomination in the state of Alaska. At the 2020 Libertarian National Convention, the Alaskan delegates cast their votes for Georgia politician John Monds, but on the third and fourth ballots voted for Jo Jorgensen, psychology senior lecturer at Clemson University. Jorgensen would become the party's nominee after being elected on the fourth ballot, her running mate being entrepreneur and podcaster Spike Cohen.[16][17]
General election
[edit]Issues
[edit]Several of Trump's environmental policies involved loosening restrictions on energy, hunting, and mining in Alaska: he instructed the Department of Agriculture to exempt Tongass National Forest from logging restrictions;[18] supported the construction of Pebble Mine, an unpopular[19] gold and copper mine in Bristol Bay (though the permit was ultimately denied);[20] rolled back limits on hunters in federal land in Alaska;[21] and opened the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling.[22] While these policies expanded their respective industries, they were met with opposition among environmental groups and the Gwich'in, whose sacred land is partly within the refuge.[23][24] Biden pledged to reverse several of Trump's climate policies[25] and address the climate crisis, and he enacted a temporary moratorium on gas and oil leasing in the ANWR after being inaugurated on January 20, 2021.[26]
Trump's environmental and gun policy also included reviving hunting techniques in Alaska, an action condemned by several animal rights groups.[27]
Final predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking |
---|---|
The Cook Political Report[28] | Likely R |
Inside Elections[29] | Lean R |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[30] | Likely R |
Politico[31] | Lean R |
RCP[32] | Likely R |
Niskanen[33] | Tossup |
CNN[34] | Solid R |
The Economist[35] | Likely R |
CBS News[36][b] | Likely R |
270towin[37] | Likely R |
ABC News[38] | Lean R |
NPR[39][c] | Lean R |
NBC News[40] | Likely R |
538[41] | Likely R |
Polling
[edit]Graphical summary
![]() | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [d] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270 to Win[42] | October 6 – November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 43.8% | 49.4% | 6.8% | Trump +5.6 |
FiveThirtyEight[43] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 43.6% | 51.2% | 5.2% | Trump +7.7 |
Average | 43.7% | 50.3% | 6.0% | Trump +6.7 |
Polls
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[e] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyMonkey/Axios[44] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 634 (LV) | ± 5% | 54%[f] | 45% | – | – | – |
Gravis Marketing[45] | Oct 26–28, 2020 | 770 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 43% | – | – | 5% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[44] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 1,147 (LV) | – | 54% | 44% | – | – | – |
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care[46][A] | Oct 19–20, 2020 | 800 (V) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 45% | - | – | 5% |
Siena College/NYT Upshot[47] | Oct 9–14, 2020 | 423 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 45% | 39% | 8% | 2%[g] | 6%[h] |
Patinkin Research Strategies[48] | Sep 30 – Oct 4, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 49% | 46% | – | 3%[i] | 2% |
Alaska Survey Research[49] | Sep 26 – Oct 4, 2020 | 696 (LV) | – | 50% | 46% | - | - | 4% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[44] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 563 (LV) | – | 53% | 45% | - | - | 2% |
Harstad Strategic Research/Independent Alaska[50][B] | Sep 20–23, 2020 | 602 (LV) | ± 4% | 47% | 46% | - | - | – |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[44] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 472 (LV) | – | 57% | 42% | - | - | 1% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[44] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 412 (LV) | – | 55% | 43% | - | - | 2% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[51][C] | Jul 23–24, 2020 | 885 (V) | – | 50% | 44% | - | - | 6% |
Public Policy Polling[52][j] | Jul 7–8, 2020 | 1,081 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 45% | - | - | 6% |
Alaska Survey Research[53] | Jun 23 – Jul 7, 2020 | 663 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 48% | - | - | 4% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[44] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 161 (LV) | – | 52% | 46% | - | - | 2% |
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics[54] | Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019 | 321 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 45% | 40% | - | - | 15% |
Former candidates
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
|
Fundraising
[edit]According to the Federal Election Commission, in 2019 and 2020, of the candidates who were on the ballot, Donald Trump and his interest groups raised $1,487,277.13,[55] Joe Biden raised $1,321,242.60,[56] and Jo Jorgensen raised $7,420.85[57] from Alaska-based contributors. Don Blankenship,[58] Brock Pierce,[59] and Rocky De La Fuente,[60] all of which were on the ballot, did not raise any money from the state.
Candidate ballot access
[edit]- Donald Trump / Mike Pence, Republican
- Joe Biden / Kamala Harris, Democratic
- Jo Jorgensen / Spike Cohen, Libertarian
- Jesse Ventura / Cynthia McKinney, Green[k]
- Don Blankenship / William Mohr, Constitution
- Brock Pierce / Karla Ballard, Independent
- Rocky De La Fuente / Darcy Richardson, Alliance
In addition, write-in candidates were required to file a Declaration of Intent with the Alaska Division of Elections at least five days before the election. They were also obligated to file a financial disclosure statement. Write-in votes were not counted individually.[61][62] The following candidates were given write-in access:[63]
- Dennis Andrew Ball / Richard A. Sanders, American Party of America – American National Committee
- Barbara Ruth Bellar / Kendra Bryant, Republican
- President R19 Boddie / Eric C. Stoneham, Independent
- David C. Byrne / Tony N. Reed, C.C.U.S.A.
- Brian T. Carroll / Amar Patel, American Solidarity
- Todd Cella / Timothy Bryan "Tim" Cella, Independent
- Mark Robert Charles / Adrian D. Wallace, Independent
- Ryan Stephen Ehrenreich / Veronica Ehrenreich, Independent
- Howard "Howie" Gresham Hawkins / Angela Nicola Walker, Socialist Party USA
- Thomas "Tom" Hoefling / Andy Prior, Independent
- Shawn W. Howard / Alyssa C. Howard, Independent
- Dario David Hunter / Dawn Neptune Adams, Progressive
- Joseph W. "Joe" McHugh / Elizabeth "Liz" Storm, Independent
- Albert L. Raley / Darlene Raley, Republican
- Deborah Ann "Debbie" Rouse / Sheila Maria Cannon, Independent
- Jade Simmons / Claudeliah J. "CJ" Roze, Independent
- Mary Ruth Caro Simmons / Sherrie Dow, Independent
- Ajay Sood / Richard Mende, Independent
- Sheila "Samm" Tittle / John Wagner, Independent
- Kasey J. Wells / Rachel M. Wells, Independent
- Kanye West / Michelle Tidball, Independent
- Demetra Jefferson Wysinger / Cedric D. Jefferson, WXYZ New Day
Electoral slates
[edit]The voters of Alaska cast their ballots for electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, rather than directly for the President and Vice President. Alaska is allocated 3 electors because it has 1 congressional district and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the most votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector. In the state of Alaska, a faithless elector's vote is counted and not penalized.[64][65]
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 14, 2020, to cast their votes for president and vice president. All 3 pledged electors from Alaska cast their votes for President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead, the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective state capitals (the District of Columbia electors meet within the District). The electoral vote was tabulated and certified by Congress in a joint session on January 6, 2021, per the Electoral Count Act.
These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[66]
Donald Trump and Mike Pence Republican Party |
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris Democratic Party |
Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen Libertarian Party |
Jesse Ventura and Cynthia McKinney Green Party |
Don Blankenship and William Mohr Constitution Party |
Brock Pierce and Karla Ballard Independent |
Rocky De La Fuente and Darcy Richardson Alliance |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Binkley Judy Eledge Randy Ruedrich |
Paul Kelly Frances Degnan Cindy Spanyers |
none listed | Robert Shields Lenin Lau Josh Hadley |
Samuel Smith Rebecca Anderson William Topel |
Arenz Thigpen Jr. Roderick Butler John Ray |
Ross Johnston Marie Motschman Anne Begle-Shedlock |
Delay in results
[edit]As expected, there was a nationwide delay in reporting election results, due to the extreme influx of absentee and mail-in ballots as a public health measure in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.[67] In Alaska, these delays were especially severe. Alaska mailed absentee ballot applications to every voter aged 65 and over.[68] Mail-in ballots only needed to be postmarked by Election Day and received by November 13 (November 18 for overseas voters), further delaying the count.[69] Only early votes cast before October 29 and Election Day votes would be released on Election Night and the state could not even begin the counting of absentee ballots nor the remaining early votes until November 10.[68] Counting was expected to be complete by November 18. By November 4, the state still had at least 122,233 absentee ballots to count.[70][71] Alaska and New York are the only two states to begin counting absentee ballots after Election Day.[72] Gail Felunumiai, Alaska's Director of Elections, attributed the delay to the need to verify that voters who voted by mail and also at their polling places did not have their ballots counted twice.[73]
The delay in counting left many races undecided for weeks.[74] The extreme rural nature of the state only worsened the delay: with many local communities being accessible only by boat or plane, seven communities had to vote entirely by absentee ballots in the primary due to a last-minute shortage of election workers.[73] The Associated Press called the race for Trump on November 11 at 12:16 PM EST (8:16 AM AKST),[9][75] 4 days after President-elect Biden won the national election.
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
189,951 | 52.83% | +1.55% | |
Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
153,778 | 42.77% | +6.23% | |
Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
8,897 | 2.47% | −3.41% | |
Green | Jesse Ventura[k] Cynthia McKinney |
2,673 | 0.74% | −1.06% | |
Constitution | Don Blankenship William Mohr |
1,127 | 0.31% | −0.90% | |
Independent | Brock Pierce Karla Ballard |
825 | 0.23% | N/A | |
Alliance | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson |
318 | 0.09% | N/A | |
Write-in | 1,961 | 0.55% | N/A | ||
Total votes | 359,530 | 100.00% | +6.67% |
By State House district
[edit]Unlike every other U.S. state, Alaska is not divided into counties or parishes. Rather, it is administratively divided into 20 boroughs: 19 organized and 1 unorganized, which act as county-equivalents.[3] The Unorganized Borough lacks a borough government structure and itself is divided into eleven census areas.[77] Contrary to election results in most states, official results by borough are not available – rather, they are estimates based on precinct-level data.[78] However, the Alaska Division of Elections does release official results by State House district, which are listed in the table below. Trump won 21 districts to Biden's 19. Biden also won overseas ballots. The 5th, 23rd, 25th, 27th, 28th, and 35th districts swung from voting for Donald Trump in 2016 to Joe Biden in 2020.[79][80]
State House District[81] | Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Jesse Ventura Green |
Don Blankenship Constitution |
Brock Pierce Independent |
Rocky De La Fuente Alliance |
Write-in | Margin | Total votes | Registered voters | Voter turnout | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||||
1 - Fairbanks | 3,511 | 47.43% | 3,477 | 46.97% | 216 | 2.92% | 50 | 0.68% | 34 | 0.46% | 24 | 0.32% | 2 | 0.03% | 89 | 1.20% | 34 | 0.46% | 7,403 | 13,926 | 53.16% |
2 - Fort Wainwright | 3,674 | 59.54% | 2,104 | 34.09% | 287 | 4.65% | 30 | 0.49% | 18 | 0.29% | 14 | 0.23% | 9 | 0.15% | 35 | 0.57% | 1,570 | 25.45% | 6,171 | 11,997 | 51.44% |
3 - North Pole | 6,076 | 71.89% | 1,903 | 22.52% | 316 | 3.74% | 42 | 0.50% | 27 | 0.32% | 13 | 0.15% | 8 | 0.09% | 67 | 0.79% | 4,173 | 49.37% | 8,452 | 14,878 | 56.81% |
4 - Goldstream | 4,690 | 44.10% | 5,345 | 50.25% | 323 | 3.04% | 93 | 0.87% | 27 | 0.25% | 29 | 0.27% | 4 | 0.04% | 125 | 1.18% | -655 | -6.15% | 10,636 | 15,274 | 69.63% |
5 - West Fairbanks | 4,077 | 46.65% | 4,204 | 48.11% | 259 | 2.96% | 68 | 0.78% | 21 | 0.24% | 17 | 0.19% | 8 | 0.09% | 85 | 0.97% | -127 | -1.46% | 8,739 | 13,958 | 62.61% |
6 - Rural Interior | 5,770 | 60.36% | 3,272 | 34.23% | 266 | 2.78% | 83 | 0.87% | 33 | 0.35% | 31 | 0.32% | 5 | 0.05% | 99 | 1.04% | 2,498 | 26.13% | 9,559 | 15,444 | 61.89% |
7 - Wasilla | 7,027 | 72.35% | 2,215 | 22.80% | 272 | 2.80% | 54 | 0.56% | 36 | 0.37% | 13 | 0.13% | 5 | 0.05% | 91 | 0.94% | 4,812 | 49.55% | 9,713 | 16,692 | 58.19% |
8 - Knik | 7,618 | 76.28% | 1,953 | 19.56% | 241 | 2.41% | 48 | 0.48% | 28 | 0.28% | 18 | 0.18% | 6 | 0.06% | 75 | 0.75% | 5,665 | 56.72% | 9,987 | 17,531 | 56.97% |
9 - Sutton-Valdez-Delta | 7,787 | 70.17% | 2,769 | 24.95% | 301 | 2.71% | 77 | 0.69% | 39 | 0.35% | 16 | 0.14% | 4 | 0.04% | 105 | 0.95% | 5,018 | 45.22% | 11,098 | 16,917 | 65.60% |
10 - Houston | 8,081 | 71.64% | 2,727 | 24.18% | 286 | 2.54% | 64 | 0.57% | 22 | 0.20% | 19 | 0.17% | 6 | 0.05% | 75 | 0.66% | 5,354 | 47.46% | 11,280 | 17,577 | 64.17% |
11 - Palmer | 7,096 | 66.14% | 3,130 | 29.17% | 269 | 2.51% | 88 | 0.82% | 22 | 0.21% | 17 | 0.16% | 6 | 0.06% | 101 | 0.94% | 3,966 | 36.97% | 10,729 | 16,491 | 65.06% |
12 - Butte | 7,893 | 69.66% | 2,957 | 26.10% | 288 | 2.54% | 54 | 0.48% | 28 | 0.25% | 15 | 0.13% | 3 | 0.03% | 92 | 0.81% | 4,936 | 43.56% | 11,330 | 16,546 | 68.48% |
13 - Chugiak | 4,652 | 59.69% | 2,666 | 34.21% | 308 | 3.95% | 40 | 0.51% | 16 | 0.21% | 25 | 0.32% | 6 | 0.08% | 80 | 1.03% | 1,986 | 25.48% | 7,793 | 13,888 | 56.11% |
14 - Eagle River | 6,714 | 57.94% | 4,261 | 36.77% | 356 | 3.07% | 50 | 0.43% | 46 | 0.40% | 10 | 0.09% | 6 | 0.05% | 145 | 1.25% | 2,453 | 21.17% | 11,588 | 16,726 | 69.28% |
15 - JBER | 2,671 | 47.48% | 2,622 | 46.61% | 197 | 3.50% | 36 | 0.64% | 10 | 0.18% | 13 | 0.23% | 10 | 0.18% | 67 | 1.19% | 49 | 0.87% | 5,626 | 12,607 | 44.63% |
16 - Nunaka Valley | 3,516 | 42.84% | 4,274 | 52.08% | 210 | 2.56% | 64 | 0.78% | 27 | 0.33% | 15 | 0.18% | 12 | 0.15% | 89 | 1.08% | -758 | -9.24% | 8,207 | 15,067 | 54.47% |
17 - UMed | 2,810 | 38.42% | 4,136 | 56.56% | 184 | 2.52% | 64 | 0.88% | 18 | 0.25% | 18 | 0.25% | 9 | 0.12% | 74 | 1.01% | -1,326 | -18.14% | 7,313 | 13,307 | 54.96% |
18 - West Anchorage | 2,760 | 35.33% | 4,681 | 59.92% | 157 | 2.01% | 79 | 1.01% | 24 | 0.31% | 15 | 0.19% | 4 | 0.05% | 92 | 1.18% | -1,921 | -24.59% | 7,812 | 14,183 | 55.08% |
19 - Mountain View | 1,975 | 36.69% | 3,118 | 57.92% | 110 | 2.04% | 52 | 0.97% | 22 | 0.41% | 11 | 0.20% | 13 | 0.24% | 82 | 1.52% | -1,143 | -21.23% | 5,383 | 12,328 | 43.66% |
20 - Downtown Anchorage | 2,383 | 31.35% | 4,881 | 64.21% | 153 | 2.01% | 53 | 0.70% | 8 | 0.11% | 15 | 0.20% | 4 | 0.05% | 105 | 1.38% | -2,498 | -32.86% | 7,602 | 14,086 | 53.97% |
21 - Turnagain-Sand Lake | 3,690 | 38.71% | 5,414 | 56.79% | 203 | 2.13% | 70 | 0.73% | 29 | 0.30% | 19 | 0.20% | 4 | 0.04% | 104 | 1.09% | -1,724 | -18.08% | 9,533 | 14,633 | 65.15% |
22 - Jewel Lake | 4,684 | 48.55% | 4,553 | 47.20% | 200 | 2.07% | 46 | 0.48% | 16 | 0.17% | 18 | 0.19% | 3 | 0.03% | 127 | 1.32% | 131 | 1.35% | 9,647 | 15,077 | 63.98% |
23 - Campbell Creek | 3,655 | 46.64% | 3,810 | 48.62% | 170 | 2.17% | 53 | 0.68% | 22 | 0.28% | 16 | 0.20% | 13 | 0.17% | 98 | 1.25% | -155 | -1.98% | 7,837 | 14,325 | 54.71% |
24 - East Anchorage | 5,378 | 50.98% | 4,736 | 44.89% | 222 | 2.10% | 46 | 0.44% | 15 | 0.14% | 24 | 0.23% | 7 | 0.07% | 122 | 1.16% | 642 | 6.09% | 10,550 | 15,078 | 69.97% |
25 - Abbott | 4,407 | 46.88% | 4,600 | 48.94% | 201 | 2.14% | 67 | 0.71% | 21 | 0.22% | 14 | 0.15% | 15 | 0.16% | 75 | 0.80% | -193 | -2.06% | 9,400 | 15,175 | 61.94% |
26 - O'Malley-Huffman | 5,243 | 51.26% | 4,558 | 44.56% | 207 | 2.02% | 55 | 0.54% | 23 | 0.22% | 23 | 0.22% | 2 | 0.02% | 118 | 1.15% | 685 | 6.70% | 10,229 | 15,591 | 65.61% |
27 - Hillside | 4,324 | 45.13% | 4,844 | 50.55% | 228 | 2.38% | 59 | 0.62% | 21 | 0.22% | 24 | 0.25% | 6 | 0.06% | 76 | 0.79% | -520 | -5.42% | 9,582 | 15,390 | 62.26% |
28 - Girdwood | 6,162 | 47.76% | 6,264 | 48.55% | 219 | 1.70% | 69 | 0.53% | 16 | 0.12% | 16 | 0.12% | 3 | 0.02% | 153 | 1.19% | -102 | -0.79% | 12,902 | 16,743 | 77.06% |
29 - Nikiski-Seward | 7,464 | 68.96% | 2,985 | 27.58% | 190 | 1.76% | 69 | 0.64% | 26 | 0.24% | 10 | 0.09% | 3 | 0.03% | 76 | 0.70% | 4,479 | 41.38% | 10,823 | 16,296 | 66.42% |
30 - Kenai | 7,180 | 69.97% | 2,638 | 25.71% | 270 | 2.63% | 42 | 0.41% | 26 | 0.25% | 17 | 0.17% | 3 | 0.03% | 86 | 0.84% | 4,542 | 44.26% | 10,262 | 16,782 | 61.15% |
31 - Homer | 6,971 | 55.56% | 5,037 | 40.15% | 250 | 1.99% | 100 | 0.80% | 27 | 0.22% | 18 | 0.14% | 7 | 0.06% | 136 | 1.08% | 1,934 | 15.41% | 12,546 | 18,132 | 69.19% |
32 - Kodiak | 4,440 | 52.89% | 3,506 | 41.76% | 238 | 2.84% | 105 | 1.25% | 21 | 0.25% | 21 | 0.25% | 4 | 0.05% | 60 | 0.71% | 934 | 11.13% | 8,395 | 13,986 | 60.02% |
33 - Juneau | 3,059 | 27.65% | 7,535 | 68.11% | 197 | 1.78% | 103 | 0.93% | 27 | 0.24% | 25 | 0.23% | 9 | 0.08% | 108 | 0.98% | -4,476 | -40.46% | 11,063 | 16,306 | 67.85% |
34 - Mendenhall | 4,543 | 41.85% | 5,763 | 53.09% | 279 | 2.57% | 68 | 0.63% | 36 | 0.33% | 34 | 0.31% | 6 | 0.06% | 127 | 1.17% | -1,220 | -11.24% | 10,856 | 16,034 | 67.71% |
35 - Sitka-Petersburg | 4,769 | 46.71% | 5,011 | 49.08% | 170 | 1.67% | 95 | 0.93% | 35 | 0.34% | 16 | 0.16% | 6 | 0.06% | 107 | 1.05% | -242 | -2.37% | 10,209 | 15,766 | 64.75% |
36 - Ketchikan | 5,114 | 54.47% | 3,796 | 40.43% | 245 | 2.61% | 79 | 0.84% | 30 | 0.32% | 20 | 0.21% | 8 | 0.09% | 97 | 1.03% | 1,318 | 14.04% | 9,389 | 15,375 | 61.07% |
37 - Bristol Bay-Aleutians | 2,358 | 45.09% | 2,560 | 48.95% | 86 | 1.64% | 56 | 1.07% | 51 | 0.98% | 17 | 0.33% | 14 | 0.27% | 88 | 1.68% | -202 | -3.86% | 5,230 | 10,447 | 50.06% |
38 - Bethel | 1,737 | 32.17% | 3,202 | 59.30% | 105 | 1.94% | 112 | 2.07% | 52 | 0.96% | 61 | 1.13% | 30 | 0.56% | 101 | 1.87% | -1,465 | -27.13% | 5,400 | 12,145 | 44.46% |
39 - Nome | 1,939 | 32.26% | 3,580 | 59.56% | 123 | 2.05% | 104 | 1.73% | 80 | 1.33% | 45 | 0.75% | 20 | 0.33% | 120 | 2.00% | -1,641 | -27.30% | 6,011 | 12,144 | 49.50% |
40 - Kotzebue-Utqiagvik | 1,994 | 42.63% | 2,318 | 49.56% | 94 | 2.01% | 86 | 1.84% | 47 | 1.00% | 39 | 0.83% | 25 | 0.53% | 74 | 1.58% | -324 | -6.93% | 4,677 | 10,118 | 46.22% |
Overseas ballots[82] | 59 | 13.47% | 373 | 85.16% | 1 | 0.23% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 5 | 1.14% | -314 | -71.69% | 438 | 681 | 64.32% |
Total | 189,951 | 52.83% | 153,778 | 42.77% | 8,897 | 2.47% | 2,673 | 0.74% | 1,127 | 0.31% | 825 | 0.23% | 318 | 0.09% | 3,831[l] | 1.06% | 36,173 | 10.06% | 361,400[l] | 595,647 | 60.67% |
Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]Borough that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- North Slope Borough (largest city: Utqiagvik)
By congressional district
[edit]Trump won the state's lone at-large district.[83]
District | Trump | Biden | Elected Representative |
---|---|---|---|
At-large | 52.8% | 42.8% | Don Young |
Analysis
[edit]Biden narrowly won Anchorage, the state's largest city, outperforming local Democrats.[84] Biden was the first Democrat to win Anchorage since Johnson. This also made Trump the first candidate of either party to prevail in Alaska without winning Anchorage. James Brooks at the Anchorage Daily News attributed Trump's victory to strong performances in the Kenai Peninsula and Matanuska-Susitna Borough.[84]
The election corresponded with the 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska, with incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan being successfully re-elected against independent Al Gross, who was also nominated and endorsed by the Democratic Party.[85] Sullivan won by a 12.71% margin, outperforming Trump by 2.65 percentage points, consistent with a nationwide trend where down-ballot Republicans outperformed Trump.[86] In the United States House of Representatives election in Alaska, incumbent Republican Don Young underperformed Trump by 0.92 percentage points against Democrat-endorsed independent Alyse Galvin.[87]
Associated Press exit polling
[edit]The following are estimates from exit polls conducted by the University of Chicago for the Associated Press interviewing 689 likely voters in Alaska, adjusted to match the actual vote count.[88]
2020 presidential election in Alaska by subgroup (Associated Press exit polling)[88] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | Jorgensen | % of
total vote |
Total vote | 42.77 | 52.83 | 2.47 | 100 |
Ideology | ||||
Liberals | 93 | 7 | <1 | 29 |
Moderates | 53 | 41 | 5 | 26 |
Conservatives | 5 | 91 | 3 | 45 |
Party | ||||
Democrats or lean Democrat | 97 | 2 | <1 | 38 |
Republicans or lean Republican | 6 | 90 | 3 | 55 |
Independents | 40 | 38 | 14 | 6 |
Type of vote | ||||
Election Day | 22 | 72 | 5 | 37 |
Early in-person | 51 | 47 | 2 | 29 |
59 | 38 | 1 | 34 | |
Vote in 2016 | ||||
Hillary Clinton | 98 | 1 | <1 | 30 |
Donald Trump | 5 | 92 | 1 | 44 |
Someone else | 47 | 33 | 13 | 13 |
Did not vote | – | – | – | 14 |
Gender | ||||
Men | 36 | 60 | 4 | 53 |
Women | 52 | 45 | 1 | 47 |
Race/ethnicity | ||||
White | 44 | 53 | 2 | 72 |
Black | – | – | – | 3 |
Latino | – | – | – | 5 |
Other | 46 | 49 | 2 | 20 |
Age | ||||
18–29 years old | – | – | – | 15 |
30–44 years old | 41 | 56 | 2 | 27 |
45–64 years old | 39 | 57 | 4 | 38 |
65 and older | 48 | 52 | <1 | 20 |
Religion | ||||
Protestant/Other Christian | 21 | 76 | 2 | 43 |
Catholic | – | – | – | 12 |
Other | 48 | 48 | 1 | 16 |
None | 74 | 24 | 1 | 29 |
Sexual orientation | ||||
LGBT | – | – | – | 5 |
Heterosexual | 40 | 57 | 1 | 95 |
Education | ||||
High school or less | – | – | – | 24 |
Some college education or associate degree | 37 | 58 | 2 | 40 |
College graduate | 58 | 44 | 7 | 23 |
Postgraduate degree | 55 | 43 | <1 | 13 |
Total household income (2019) | ||||
Under $50,000 | 50 | 45 | 3 | 23 |
$50,000–$99,999 | 43 | 52 | 3 | 40 |
Over $100,000 | 38 | 60 | 2 | 37 |
Union households | ||||
Yes | – | – | – | 28 |
No | 39 | 59 | 1 | 72 |
Veteran households | ||||
Yes | – | – | – | 52 |
No | 45 | 47 | 8 | 48 |
Area type | ||||
Urban | 51 | 47 | 1 | 21 |
Suburban | 35 | 59 | 4 | 30 |
Small town | 50 | 46 | 3 | 30 |
Rural | 37 | 61 | <1 | 19 |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Alaska
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Votes which had all its 5 ranked vote-choices allocated towards eliminated candidates who did not reach the threshold of 15%.
- ^ CBS News' presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
- ^ NPR's presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
- ^ Includes "Refused"
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ Poll's funding crowdsourced by Election Twitter.
- ^ a b The national Green Party nominated Howie Hawkins for President with Angela Nicole Walker as his running mate, but the Alaska state party chose Ventura and McKinney.
- ^ a b For an unknown reason, the number of write-in votes differs between the official statewide results and the official State House district-level results. The former counts 1,961 and the latter 3,831. Results for all other candidates are identical between the two sources.
Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on January 3, 2019. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Archived from the original on January 9, 2019. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ a b Savicki, Drew (May 4, 2020). "The Road to 270: Alaska". 270toWin. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
- ^ Guthrie, Benjamin J.; Roberts, Ralph R. (August 15, 1965). "Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 3, 1964" (PDF). Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
- ^ Cohn, Nate (October 16, 2020). "Alaska Is More Competitive, but Republicans Still Lead". The New York Times. Retrieved December 31, 2023.
- ^ Solender, Andrew (October 31, 2020). "Biden Competitive In Alaska? Republicans Fret Over Trump Odds In Once-Reliable Red States". Forbes. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
- ^ Durkee, Alison (November 5, 2020). "Here's Why Alaska Hasn't Been Called Yet". Forbes. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
- ^ Rakich, Nathaniel; Mejía, Elena (October 30, 2020). "When To Expect Election Results In Every State". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
- ^ a b "Trump wins Alaska after losing U.S. presidency to Biden: Edison Research". Reuters. November 11, 2020. Archived from the original on November 12, 2020. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
- ^ Guthrie, Benjamin J. (July 1, 1969). "Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 5, 1968" (PDF). Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
- ^ Cole, Devan (September 23, 2019). "Alaska GOP cancels its 2020 presidential primary in show of support for Trump". CNN. Archived from the original on September 25, 2019. Retrieved September 26, 2019.
- ^ "Alaska Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Archived from the original on March 1, 2020. Retrieved February 21, 2020.
- ^ Sulivan, Kate (March 23, 2020). "Rhode Island postpones primaries and Alaska Democrats cancel in-person voting due to coronavirus". CNN. Archived from the original on March 25, 2020. Retrieved March 29, 2020.
- ^ "RANK-CHOICE VOTING DETAILS" (PDF). Alaska Democratic Party. Retrieved April 11, 2020.[permanent dead link]
- ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved April 30, 2020.
- ^ Clemson professor wins Libertarian nomination for president Greenville News. May 26, 2020.
- ^ LNC Convention Day 2. Libertarian Party. May 23, 2020. Event occurs at [time needed]. Retrieved May 23, 2020.
- ^ Buchman, Brandi (October 28, 2020). "Trump Opens Tongass, the Nation's Largest Intact Protected Forest, to Logging". Courthouse News Service. Archived from the original on October 31, 2020. Retrieved January 22, 2021.
- ^ Heimer, Taryn Kiekow (July 10, 2020). "62% of Alaskans Oppose the Pebble Mine, New Poll Shows". Natural Resources Defense Council. Archived from the original on July 30, 2020. Retrieved January 22, 2021.
- ^ Ruskin, Liz (November 25, 2020). "Trump Administration Rejects Pebble Mine Project In Alaska". NPR. Archived from the original on November 25, 2020. Retrieved January 22, 2021.
- ^ Fears, Darryl (June 9, 2020). "Trump administration makes it easier for hunters to kill bear cubs and wolf pups in Alaska". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved January 22, 2021.
- ^ Groom, Nichola; Rosen, Yereth (January 6, 2021). "Oil drillers shrug off Trump's U.S. Arctic wildlife refuge auction". Reuters. Retrieved January 22, 2021.
- ^ Newman, Matthew N.; Furlong, Wesley James. "Arctic National Wildlife Refuge". Native American Rights Fund. Archived from the original on July 18, 2019. Retrieved January 22, 2021.
- ^ Hanlon, Tegan (December 15, 2020). "Gwich'in, conservation groups ask court to block ANWR oil leasing". Alaska Public Media. NPR, PBS. Archived from the original on December 15, 2020. Retrieved January 22, 2021.
- ^ "Biden to reverse Trump policies on COVID, race and climate on day one". Euronews. Associated Press. January 20, 2021. Archived from the original on January 20, 2021. Retrieved January 22, 2021.
- ^ Bohrer, Becky (January 20, 2021). "Biden plans temporary halt of oil activity in Arctic refuge". Associated Press. Archived from the original on January 20, 2021. Retrieved January 22, 2021.
- ^ Friedman, Lisa (June 9, 2020). "Trump Administration Revives Banned Hunting Techniques in Alaska". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved January 22, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Electoral College Ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. October 28, 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 5, 2021. Retrieved May 21, 2019 – via Wayback Machine.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". Inside Elections. October 28, 2020. Archived from the original on January 10, 2021. Retrieved May 21, 2019 – via Wayback Machine.
- ^ "2020 Electoral College Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 2, 2020. Archived from the original on January 10, 2021. Retrieved May 21, 2019 – via Wayback Machine.
- ^ "Who wins 2020? Presidential Election Predictions & Key Races". Politico. November 2, 2020. Archived from the original on November 30, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. April 19, 2019. Archived from the original on January 10, 2021. Retrieved April 27, 2020 – via Wayback Machine.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Archived from the original on June 24, 2020. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Archived from the original on July 5, 2020. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Archived from the original on July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win. Archived from the original on July 29, 2020. Retrieved July 29, 2020.
- ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Archived from the original on July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Archived from the original on August 4, 2020. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Archived from the original on August 7, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Archived from the original on August 14, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- ^ 270 to Win
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
- ^ Gravis Marketing
- ^ Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care
- ^ Siena College/NYT Upshot
- ^ Patinkin Research Strategies
- ^ Alaska Survey Research
- ^ Harstad Strategic Research/Independent Alaska
- ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Alaska Survey Research
- ^ a b c d e Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics
- ^ "TRUMP, DONALD J. - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved December 9, 2020.
- ^ "BIDEN, JOSEPH R JR - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved December 9, 2020.
- ^ "JORGENSEN, JO - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved December 9, 2020.
- ^ "BLANKENSHIP, DON - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
- ^ "PIERCE, BROCK - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
- ^ "DE LA FUENTE, ROQUE ROCKY - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
- ^ "Ballot access requirements for political candidates in Alaska". Ballotpedia. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
- ^ "Dominion Voting System Ballot" (PDF). State of Alaska. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
- ^ "Alaska 2020 General Election". The Green Papers. Retrieved December 20, 2020.
- ^ "Faithless Elector State Laws". FairVote. July 7, 2020. Retrieved December 9, 2020.
- ^ "Alaska Statutes Title 15. Elections § 15.30.090. Duties of electors". FindLaw. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
- ^ a b "Alaska Certificate of Ascertainment" (PDF). National Archives. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
- ^ Rakich, Nathaniel (August 14, 2020). "Why We're Planning For An Election Day That Could Last Months". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved December 20, 2020.
- ^ a b Mejía, Elena; Rakich, Nathaniel (October 30, 2020). "When To Expect Election Results In Every State". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved December 20, 2020.
- ^ Durkee, Alison (November 5, 2020). "Here's Why Alaska Hasn't Been Called Yet". Forbes. Retrieved December 20, 2020.
- ^ Herz, Nat (November 4, 2020). "With more than 100,000 ballots still to count, Alaska campaigns cross fingers and crunch numbers". KTOO. Retrieved December 20, 2020.
- ^ Brooks, James (November 3, 2020). "What's next in Alaska's election? Waiting". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved December 20, 2020.
- ^ Corasaniti, Nick; Lu, Denise (October 13, 2020). "How Quickly Will Your Absentee Vote Be Counted? A State-by-State Timeline". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved December 20, 2020.
- ^ a b Kitchenman, Andrew (October 31, 2020). "In close races, results in Alaska not expected for at least a week after Election Day". KTOO. Retrieved December 20, 2020.
- ^ Kitchenman, Andrew (November 4, 2020). "Some Alaska Republicans build large leads through Wednesday's vote count, with counting to resume in a week". KTOO. Retrieved December 20, 2020.
- ^ "AP Politics on Twitter: "BREAKING: Donald Trump wins Alaska. #APracecall at 8:16 a.m. Alaska Standard Time. #Election2020"". Twitter. November 11, 2020. Retrieved December 20, 2020.
- ^ "General Election Results Summary" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved November 30, 2020.
- ^ "Changes to Counties and County Equivalent Entities: 1970-Present". United States Census Bureau. Retrieved December 20, 2020.
- ^ "Alaska Presidential Results by County, 1960-2016|Maps". The CINYC. Archived from the original on January 25, 2021. Retrieved December 20, 2020.
- ^ "General Election – November 8, 2016 ELECTION RESULTS (OFFICIAL)". Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved December 20, 2020.
- ^ "State of Alaska Division of Elections". Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved December 20, 2020.
- ^ "2020 GENERAL OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS". Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2020. Retrieved December 22, 2020.
- ^ "Results By Precincts (Text)". Alaska Division of Elections. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 22, 2020.
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". m.dailykos.com/. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
- ^ a b Brooks, James (November 17, 2020). "Biden will claim Alaska's best showing for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
- ^ Aaro, David (November 4, 2020). "Who is Al Gross? What to know about Alaska's Senate candidate". Fox News. Archived from the original on November 4, 2020. Retrieved January 22, 2021.
- ^ Chang, Alvin; Gutiérrez, Pablo; Kirk, Ashley (November 17, 2020). "How Trump's presidency turned off some Republicans – a visual guide". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
- ^ "2020 GENERAL ELECTION Election Summary Report November 3, 2020 OFFICIAL RESULTS" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 1, 2020. Retrieved January 22, 2021.
- ^ a b "Alaska Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
Further reading
[edit]- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Alaska
External links
[edit]- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Alaska", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Alaska: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Alaska". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Alaska at Ballotpedia