Knowledge of post-larval swordfish (Xiphias gladius) ecology in the world’s oceans is incomplete as they are rarely found in ichthyoplankton samplings or commercial catches and individuals are difficult to observe in the marine ecosystem. Analyses of stomach contents of apex predators can provide otherwise unobtainable ecological insights. Two well-preserved bills of post-larval swordfish were identified among the partially digested stomach contents of an adult male dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) caught in the northern Tyrrhenian Sea. The lower jaw to fork lengths of the two predated swordfish were estimated at respectively, 18 and 22 cm, corresponding to 81- and 99-day-old swordfish hatched in the 2022 spawning season. This analysis and recent information on the reproductive dynamics of swordfish in the same area reported in the literature shed light not only on the early stages of swordfish growth but also on dolphinfish ecology in the Tyrrhenian Sea. The two species share the same habitat and are both caught with commercial pelagic surface longlines. Environmental shifts associated with climate change could unpredictably modify the reproduction dynamics, growth, recruitment and distribution of both species. This knowledge is important for the sustainable management of regional fisheries.

The lithium-ion batteries are widely used as a power source for portable devices, including cell phones. The useful life is about 2 years or 500 cycles, contributing to the generation of waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE). Mining of lithium and cobalt damages the environment and is onerous; therefore, sustainable alternatives, such as obtaining these elements from secondary sources as recycling of lithium-ion batteries, are essential to provide the inputs used in the sector. However, the metallurgical route which will used to recovering them must be considered, due to this work aims for a more environmentally favorable process using DL-malic acid 1.5 M and instead of compared with sulfuric acid 2 M, heat pretreatment of 1 h and 3 h, and for all conditions, experiments were carried out with and without adding the oxidizing agent hydrogen peroxide. The best yields occurred in presence of H2O2 10 % v/v, and heat pretreatment of 1 h: 33.49 % Co and 4.63 % Li, and 29.78 % Co e 3.44 % Li were recovered by sulfuric acid and DL-malic acid, respectively.

Pelagic stingray (Pteroplatytrygon violacea) is the only species of stingray (Dasyatidae) that utilizes both pelagic and demersal habitats. It is the main bycatch species in pelagic longline fisheries targeting bluefin tuna in the Gulf of Lions. In the Mediterranean Sea, their stock structure, behavioural ecology and movements are unknown. For the first time in the Mediterranean, 17 individuals (39 to 60 cm disc width) were tagged with pop-up satellite archival transmitting tags using a novel method of tag attachment, to investigate horizontal and vertical movements. The tags were attached for between two and 60 days. Between the months of July and October, pelagic stingray occupied a temperature range of 12.5 to 26.6°C, and a depth range extending from the surface to 480 m. Monthly trends in catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) of pelagic stingray peaked in August and decreased by late autumn. Pelagic stingray may aggregate on the continental shelf during summer, and move southwards in early autumn, and this movement pattern is considered in relation to the reproductive cycle and overwintering. Future work and options for bycatch mitigation are discussed.

Epithelial–mesenchymal transition (EMT) is defined as a cellular process during which epithelial cells acquire mesenchymal phenotypes and behavior following the downregulation of epithelial features. EMT and its reversed process, the mesenchymal-epithelial transition (MET), and the special form of EMT, the endothelial-mesenchymal transition (EndMT), have been thought as a universal dogma controlling developmental and pathological processes. More than half a century of EMT study has made it a large research field and a mainstream concept. However, discrepancies and disputes over EMT and EMT research have also grown over time. Particularly, neither the epithelial and mesenchymal states/properties nor their regulatory networks nor specific markers have been defined, rendering the EMT, MET and EndMT concepts groundless. Moreover, EMT and MET effects should not be a cause, but rather a consequence of or an accompanying effect during developmental and pathological processes. EMT and MET represented by the change in cell shapes or adhesiveness or symbolized by EMT factors are biased interpretation of the overall change in cellular property and regulatory networks during development and cancer progression. The true meaning of EMT effects in some developmental and pathological processes, such as fibrosis, needs re-evaluation. But the core EMT factors are actually a few components of the regulatory networks of neural stemness, which determines tumorigenicity and pluripotency. The EMT effects in cancer progression and neural crest formation are wrong attribution of the role of neural stemness during cancer progression and the cell-intrinsic property of neural crest cells to the unknown mesenchymal state. It is time to reassess the significance of EMT and its related concepts in scientific research.

Semi-continuous data are very common in the social science and economics. In this paper, a Bayesian variable selection procedure is developed to assess the influence of exogenous factors including observed and unobserved on the semi-continuous data. Our formulation is based on the two-part latent variable model with polytomous response. We consider two schemes for the penalties of regression coefficients and factor loadings: the Bayesian spike and slab bimodal prior and the Bayesian lasso prior. Within the Bayesian framework, we implement Markov Chains Monte Carlo sampling method to conduct posterior inference. To facilitate posterior sampling, we recast the logistic model in part one as the norm-like mixture model. Gibbs sampler is designed to draw observations from the posterior. Our empirical results show that with suitable hyper-parameters, the spike and slab bimodal method slightly outperforms the Bayesian lasso in the current analysis. Finally, a real example related to the China household finance survey is analyzed to illustrate the application of the methodology.. .

Flavonoids are secondary plant metabolites involved in biological activity that are present in plentiful proportions in many plant origin foods and beverages. Owing to their chemical difference and qualities that make them beneficial for human health, they have received a lot of focus in research. This review therefore presents an account on the chemical structure of flavonoids, food sources and their metabolism with emphasis on bioavailability. And they also examine their antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, anticancer, cardiovascular protective, neuroprotective, and antimicrobial properties and reveal related molecular processes. In addition, it overviews the clinical data concerning their possible use in the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases. Some of the problems that attend current flavonoid research are also dealt with; such issues as variation in the bioactivity of flavonoids and scarcity of clinical studies. This review is designed to present current state of knowledge and to provoke further research concerning the further potential of flavonoids in enhancing human health.

The high performance of liquid chromatography(HPLC) has long been an indispensable tool for vigilance and analysis across range disciplines such as pharmaceuticals, environmental monitoring, food safety attributes etc. We will discuss about HPLC method development and validation, types of liquid chromatography methods focusing on proper use of a mobile phase like an eluent selection, how to optimize the conditions as well take it through its various procedures required for approval from regulatory bodies. Strategies to improve method robustness, sensitivity and reproducibility are highlighted. The future breakthroughs in HPLC technology and some innovative trends have also been speculated to limit this fundamental methodology.

Solanum indicum Linn, is commonly known as Indian Nightshade or Poison Berry belongs to the family Solanaceae. This review studied the botanical description, traditional uses of its seeds, its chemical composition, pharmacological properties and modern applications in medicinal system. The plant is rich in alkaloids, steroidal saponins, flavonoids and phenolic acids having diverse pharmacological activities and phytochemical profile. It is used in treatment of various respiratory disorders, inflammation, skin problems and gastrointestinal disease since ancient times. Scientific research in modern times also tested many of the traditional uses revealing anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, antimicrobial activities as well as some cytotoxic and even antidiabetic effects. These pharmacological activities show potential future as uses for organic drugs, natural health products, skincare formulations and agricultural advancements.

In this paper we propose the notion of a transposed Poisson superalgebra. We prove that a transposed Poisson superalgebra can be constructed by means of a commutative associative superalgebra and an even degree derivation of this algebra. Making use of this we construct two examples of transposed Poisson superalgebra. One of them is the graded differential algebra of differential forms on a smooth finite dimensional manifold, where we use the Lie derivative as an even degree derivation. The second example is the commutative superalgebra of basic fields of the quantum Yang-Mills theory, where we use the BRST-supersymmetry as an even degree derivation to define a graded Lie bracket. We prove several identities, which hold in a transposed Poisson superalgebra.

The main purpose of this paper is to introduce and investigate degenerate Poisson distrib- ution which is a new extension of the Poisson distribution including the degenerate expo- nential function. We then provide several properties of the degenerate Poisson distribution such as the first and the second raw moments and di¤erence operator property. Moreover, we acquired the skewness and the kurtosis for the degenerate Poisson distribution. We also derive its moment generating function by which we define the degenerate Bell polynomials and give a connection for these polynomials related to the unsigned Stirling numbers of the …rst kind.

Background: Bayesian Network (BN) modeling is a prominent methodology in computational systems biology. However, the incommensurability of datasets fre- quently encountered in life science domains gives rise to contextual dependence and numerical irregularities in the behavior of model selection criteria (such as MDL, Minimum Description Length) used in BN reconstruction. This renders model features, first and foremost dependency strengths, incomparable and diffi- cult to interpret. In this study, we derive and evaluate a model selection principle that addresses these problems. Results: The objective of the study is attained by (i) approaching model eval- uation as a classification problem, (ii) estimating the effect that sampling error has on the satisfiability of conditional independence criterion, as reflected by Mutual Information, and (iii) utilizing this error estimate to penalize uncertainty with the novel Minimum Uncertainty (MU) model selection principle. We vali- date our findings numerically and demonstrate the performance advantages of the MU criterion. Finally, we illustrate the advantages of the new model evaluation framework on real data examples. Conclusions: The new BN model selection principle successfully overcomes per- formance irregularities observed with MDL, offers a superior average convergence rate in BN reconstruction, and improves the interpretability and universality of resulting BNs, thus enabling direct inter-BN comparisons and evaluations.

The e-commerce sector is in a constant state of growth and evolution, particularly within its subdomain of online food delivery. As such, ensuring customer satisfaction is critical for companies working in this field. One way to achieve this is by providing accurate delivery time estimation. While companies can track couriers via GPS, they often lack real-time data on traffic and road conditions, complicating delivery time predictions. To address this, a range of statistical and machine learning techniques are being employed, including neural networks and specialized expert systems, with different degree of success. One issue with neural networks and machine learning models is their heavy dependence on vast, high quality data. To mitigate this issue we propose two Bayesian generalized linear models to predict time of the delivery. Utilizing a linear combination of predictor variables, we generate practical range of outputs with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling method. These models offer a balance of generality and adaptability, allowing for tuning with expert knowledge. They were compared with PSIS-LOO and WAIC criteria. Results show that both models accurately estimated delivery times from the dataset, while maintaining numerical stability. Model with more predictor variables proved to be more accurate.

Estimating parameters for multiple datasets can be time consuming, especially when the number of datasets is large. One solution is to sample from multiple datasets simultaneously using Bayesian methods such as adaptive multiple importance sampling (AMIS). Here we use the AMIS approach to fit a von Misses distribution to multiple datasets for wind trajectories derived from a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model driven from a 3D meteorological data. The primary objective is to characterise the uncertainties in wind trajectories in a form that can be used as inputs for predictive models of wind-dispersed insect pests and pathogens of agricultural crops for use in evaluating risk and in planning mitigation actions. Our results show that AMIS can significantly improve the efficiency of parameter inference for multiple datasets.

Many clustering approaches succeed in pattern segmentation in many applications. This unsupervised segmentation should be effective to reduce an expert labelling time: i.e, they must be able to detect the number of patterns and identify them in a sequence or map with the right cuts. Several direct and hierarchical clustering approaches are compared for this task. A divisive spectral clustering architecture with a no-cut criteria is also proposed. This new algorithm achieves promise segmentation of spatial UCI databases and marine time series compared to other approaches.

The normal and Poisson distribution assumptions in the normal-Poisson mixed effects regression model are often too restrictive for many real count data. Several works have independently relaxed the Poisson conditional distribution assumption for counts or the normal distribution assumption for random effects. This work couples some recent advances in these two regards to develop a skew t–discrete gamma regression model in which the count outcomes have full dispersion flexibility and random effets can be skewed and heavy tailed. Inference in the model is achieved by maximum likelihood using pseudo-adaptive Gaussian quadature. The use of the proposal is demonstrated on a popular owl sibling negotiation data. It appears that, for this example, the proposed approach outperforms models based on normal random effects and the Poisson or negative binomial count distribution.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a global health concern driven by factors such as obesity, sedentary behavior, and poor diet. This study uses data from the 2017-18 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) to analyze regional and individual predictors of diabetes and predi-abetes. Employing a Bayesian multinomial mixed-effects model, we account for regional varia-bility and individual factors like age, gender, BMI, residence, wealth, education, employment, and hypertension. Our results indicate significant regional differences and associations between de-mographic and health-related factors with diabetes risk. Younger individuals and those with higher BMI are more likely to be diabetic, while hypertension significantly increases diabetes risk. We applied machine learning (ML) models, including logistic regression, decision trees, k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis, and random forest, to classify diabetic status using these predictors, assessing their accuracy through 10-fold cross-validation. Logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis demonstrated robust performance across various response distributions. Simulation studies further examined the impact of different response distributions on model performance, revealing significant differences in classification accuracies. This approach of esti-mating parameters with a Bayesian model, applying ML for prediction, and conducting simulation studies to explore various scenarios highlights the importance of integrating these methodologies for effective diabetes prediction, providing insights for public health strategies to mitigate T2DM's impact.

We find at least 4 quantum properties that are indeed universal in some number systems; and we can use them for quantum consciousness. Using the sets B={0,1}, N, Z, or Q has the +4 quantum properties that one can trust, as archetypes of easy communication to friends and foes, to ignoranti or cognoscenti, and for quantum computing. This paper proposes the use of Bayesian geometry to reduce the space of possible results, reducing or increasing initial beliefs by successive experimentation. This is exemplified in biology and mathematics, and can be applied to physics and other sciences. The conclusion is that an experimental fact can be absolutely verified. Any mathematical choice (as verified by computers) militating against R=Q, is under an absolutely low chance to succeed. Infinitesimals are denied based on 3^16 independent factors. This is not a probabilistic result, but based on reduction of the Bayes geometry for updating beliefs. This work applies to non-probabilistic and unknown phenomena, such as those found in oscillations (neutrino, health), evolution, and quantum computing, denies Gödel's uncertainty, and solves the liar's paradox by reflection. This connects different scientific fields with one another, in an internet, i.e., in a network of connections of multiple open networks, using the set Q, resembling a hologram, and includes entanglement.

This pandemic of COVID-19 is tedious to control. The only lockdown is the way to stop the spread of this infection. Conventional health care is facing a real challenge to operate. Primarily the challenge is to provide health care support for COVID-19 patients with limited resources and continue the health care services like earlier.Perhaps, this challenge is the same but magnitude is different from different geographical locations around the globe. In this article, we presented a Bayesian algorithm with the Code to predict cancer death due to COVID-19. This code is possible to run at different time points and different geographical locations around the world. This code will help us to get the best strategy and shift the treatment option for cancer treatment. The model would provide physicians with an objective tool for counseling and decision making at different hotspots and small areas to implement.

This paper investigates an inverse problem of option pricing in the extended Black--Scholes model. We identify the model coefficients from the measured data and attempt to find arbitrage opportunities in financial markets using a Bayesian inference approach. The posterior probability density function of the parameters is computed from the measured data. The statistics of the unknown parameters are estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which explores the posterior state space. The efficient sampling strategy of MCMC enables us to solve inverse problems by the Bayesian inference technique. Our numerical results indicate that the Bayesian inference approach can simultaneously estimate the unknown drift and volatility coefficients from the measured data.

The research work examined the trend of HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Hepatitis diseases in Plateau state. Annual data from 2003 to 2018 was collected from the department of biostatistics at Plateau State Specialist Hospital (PSSH), Jos. The methods of analysis used are the Poisson Autoregressive Model (PAR(1)) and the Poisson Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Model (PEWMA). The results revealed a significant annual decrease of 23.9% and 4% in Tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS respectively. Furthermore, the results showed a significant annual increase of 46% in Hepatitis. The PEWMA model used revealed that TB increased by 0.02% when there is an increase in HIV but not significant, while Hepatitis significantly aggravates TB by at least 0.24%. Also, there is a significant rise in HIV by 0.85% when TB increases but Hepatitis has no such effect on HIV. Lastly, PEWMA model indicated a rise of 0.5% in Hepatitis cases when there is an increase in TB, but a surge in HIV has no such effect on Hepatitis cases in Jos. The study recommended that fight against TB should be intensified since TB cases significantly affect both HIV and Hepatitis in Jos, Nigeria.

Correlated binary data in a 2x2 table has been analyzed from both the frequentist and Bayesian perspectives, but a fully Bayesian hierarchical model has not been proposed. This is a commonly used model for correlated proportions when considering, for example, a diagnostic test performance where negative subjects are tested a second time. We consider a new hierarchical Bayesian model for the parameters resulting from a 2x2 table with a structural zero. We investigate the performance of the hierarchical model via simulation. We then illustrate the usefulness of the model by showing how a set of historical studies can be used to build a predictive distribution for a new study that can be used as a prior distribution for both the rate ratio and marginal probability of a positive test. We then show how the prior based on historical 2x2 tables can be used to power a future study that accounts for pre-experimental uncertainty. High quality prior information can lead to better decision making by improving precision in estimation and by providing realistic numbers to power studies.

The entropy models have been recently adopted in many studies to evaluate the distribution of the shear stress in circular channels. However, the uncertainty in their predictions and their reliability remains an open question. We present a novel method to evaluate the uncertainty of four popular entropy models, including Shannon, Shannon-Power Low (PL), Tsallis, and Renyi, in shear stress estimation in circular channels. The Bayesian Monte-Carlo (BMC) uncertainty method is simplified considering a 95% Confidence Bound (CB). We developed a new statistic index called as FREE_opt-based OCB (FOCB) using the statistical indices Forecasting Range of Error Estimation (FREE) and the percentage of observed data in the CB (N_in), which integrates their combined effect. The Shannon and Shannon PL entropies had close values of the FOCB equal to 8.781 and 9.808, respectively, had the highest certainty in the calculation of shear stress values in circular channels followed by traditional uniform flow shear stress and Tsallis models with close values of 14.491 and 14.895, respectively. However, Renyi entropy with much higher values of FOCB equal to 57.726 has less certainty in the estimation of shear stress than other models. Using the presented results in this study, the amount of confidence in entropy methods in the calculation of shear stress to design and implement different types of open channels and their stability is determined.

In this study, based on our previous study, we examined the mathematical properties, especially the stability of the equilibrium for our proposed mathematical model. By means of the results of the stability in this study, we also used actual data representing transient booms and resurgent booms, and conducted parameter estimation for our proposed model using Bayesian inference. In addition, we conducted a model fitting to five actual data. By this study, we reconfirmed that we can express the resurgences or minute vibrations of actual data by means of our proposed model.

In his best-selling book An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, W. Feller established a way of ending the St. Petersburg Paradox by the introduction of an entrance fee, and provided it for the case in which the game is played with a fair coin. A natural generalization of his method is to establish the entrance fee for the case in which the probability of head is θ (0 < θ < 1/2). The deduction of those fees is the main result of Section 2. We then propose a Bayesian approach to the problem. When the probability of head is θ (1/2 < θ < 1) the expected gain of the St. Petersburg Game is finite, therefore there is no paradox. However, if one takes θ as a random variable assuming values in (1/2,1) the paradox may hold, what is counter-intuitive. On Section 3 we determine a necessary and sufficient condition for the absence of paradox on the Bayesian approach and on Section 4 we establish the entrance fee for the case in which θ is uniformly distributed in (1/2,1), for in this case there is paradox.

Rapid post-earthquake damage diagnosis of bridges can guide decision-making for emergency response management and recovery. This can be facilitated using digital technologies to remove the barriers of manual post-event inspections. Prior mechanics-based Finite Element (FE) models can be used for post-event response simulation using the measured ground motions at nearby stations; however, the damage assessment outcomes would suffer from uncertainties in structural and soil material properties, input excitations, etc. For instrumented bridges, these uncertainties can be reduced by integrating sensory data with prior models through a model updating approach. This study presents a sequential Bayesian model updating technique, through which a linear/nonlinear FE model, including soil-structure interaction effects, and the foundation input motions are jointly identified from measured acceleration responses. The efficacy of the presented model updating technique is first examined through a numerical verification study. Then, seismic data recorded from the San Rogue Canyon Bridge in California are used for a real-world case study. Comparison between the free-field and the foundation input motions reveals valuable information regarding the soil-structure interaction effects at the bridge site. Moreover, the reasonable agreement between the recorded and estimated bridge responses shows the potentials of the presented model updating technique for real-world applications. The updated FE model is considered as the digital twin of the bridge and can be used to analyze the bridge and monitor the structural response at element, section, and fiber levels to diagnose the location and severity of any potential damage mechanism.

Vibration signal analysis is regarded as a fundamental approach in diagnosing faults in rolling bearings, and recent advancements have shown notable progress in this domain. However, the presence of substantial background noise often results in the masking of these fault signals, posing a significant challenge for researchers. In response, an Adaptive Denoising Autoencoder (ADAE) approach is proposed in this paper. The data representations are learned by the encoder through convolutional layers, while the data reconstruction is performed by the decoder using deconvolutional layers. Both the encoder and decoder incorporate adaptive shrinkage units to simulate denoising functions, effectively removing interfering information while preserving sensitive fault features. Additionally, dropout regularization is applied to sparsify the network and prevent overfitting, thereby enhancing the overall expressive power of the model. To further enhance ADAE's noise resistance, shortcut connections are added. Evaluation using publicly available datasets under scenarios with known and unknown noise demonstrates that ADAE effectively enhances the signal-to-noise ratio in strongly noisy backgrounds, facilitating accurate diagnosis of faults in rolling bearings.

The giant challenge breeding flood-irrigated rice is to identify superior genotypes that present high-yielding with specific grain qualities, resistance to abiotic and biotic stresses, excellent adaptation to the target environment. Thus, the objectives of this study were to propose a bayesian multi-trait model, estimate genetic parameters, and select flood-irrigated rice genotypes with better genetic potentials in different evaluation environments. For this, twenty-five rice genotypes belonging to the flood-irrigated rice improvement program were evaluated. The grain yields, grain length, width and thickness, grain length, and grain width and weight of 100 grains in the agricultural year 2016/2017. The experimental design used in all experiments was a randomized block design with three replications. The Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm estimated genetic parameters and genetic values. The grain thickness trait was considered highly heritable, with a credibility interval ranging from: h^2: 0.9480; 0.9440; 0.8610, in environments 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The grain yields showed a low correlation estimate between grain thickness and 100-grain weight, in all environments, with a credibility interval ranging from (ρ= 0.5477; 0.5762; 0.5618 and 0.5973; 0.5247; 0.5632, grain thickness and 100-grain weight, in environments 1, 2, and 3, respectively). The Bayesian multi-trait model proved to be an adequate strategy for the genetic improvement of flood-irrigated. Genotypes 2 and 15 had similar potential in the three environments, they should be selected as high-performance multi-trait genotypes for the genetic breeding of flood-irrigated rice in the program.

Theoretical mathematics is a key evolution factor of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Nowadays, representing a Smart system as a mathematical model helps to analyze any system with under development and support different case studies found in the real life. Additionally, the Markov chain has shown itself to be an invaluable tool for decision-making systems, natural language processing, and predictive modelling. In an Internet of Things (IoT), Machine-to-Machine (M2M) traffic necessitates new traffic models due to its unique pattern and different goals. In this context, we have two types of modeling: 1) Source Traffic modeling used to design stochastic processes such that they match the behavior of physical quantities of measured data traffic (e.g., video, data, voice). 2) Aggregated Traffic modeling which refers to the process of combining multiple small packets into a single packet in order to reduce the header overhead in the network. In real world, the heavy challenge is striking a balance between the model accuracy and dealing with a massive number of M2M devices. On the one hand, due to their reliability, Source traffic models have a competitive advantage over Aggregated traffic models. On the other hand, their complexity is expected to make managing the exponential growth of M2M devices difficult. In this paper, we propose a Markov Modulated Poisson Processes (MMPP) framework to study M2M heterogeneous traffic effects as well as Human-to-Human (H2H) traffic using MMPP. To characterize the H2H and M2M coexistence, we use Markov chains as a stochastic process tool. Once using the traditional evolved Node B (eNodeB), our simulation results show that the network's service completion rate will suffer significantly. In the worst-case scenario, when an accumulative storm of M2M requests attempts to access the network simultaneously, the degradation reaches 8% as a completion task rate. However, using our "Coexistence of Heterogeneous traffic Analyzer and Network Architecture for Long term evolution" (CHANAL) solution, we can achieve a service completion rate of 96%.

This study introduces a new discrete distribution which is a weighted version of Poisson-Lindley distribution. The weighted distribution is obtained using the negative binomial weight function and can be fitted to count data with over-dispersion. The p.m.f., p.g.f. and simulation procedure of the new weighted distribution, namely weighted negative binomial Poisson-Lindley (WNBPL), are provided. The maximum likelihood method for parameter estimation is also presented. The WNBPL distribution is fitted to several insurance datasets, and is compared to the Poisson and negative binomial distributions in terms of several statistical tests.

This study has developed a Matlab application for simulating statistical models project (SMp) probabilistic distributions that are similar to binomial and Poisson, which were created by mathematical procedures. The simulated distributions are graphically compared with these popular distributions. The application allows to obtain many probabilistic distributions, and shows the trend (τ ) for n trials with success probability p, i.e. the maximum probability as τ=np. While the Poisson distribution PD(x;µ) is a unique probabilistic distribution, where PD=0 in x=+∞, the application simulates many SMp(x;µ,Xmax) distributions, where µ is the Poisson parameter and value of x with generally the maximum probability, and Xmax is the upper limit of x with SMp(x;µ,Xmax) ≥ 0 and limit of the stochastic region of a random discrete variable. It is shown that by simulation via, one can get many and better probabilistic distributions than by mathematical one.

This study has developed a Matlab application for simulating statistical models project (SMp) probabilistic distributions that are similar to binomial and Poisson, which were created by mathematical procedures. The simulated distributions are graphically compared with these legendary distributions. The application allows to obtain many probabilistic distributions, and shows the trend (τ ) for n trials with success probability p, i.e. the maximum probability as τ=np. While the Poisson distribution PD(x;µ) is a unique probabilistic distribution, where PD=0 in x=+∞, the application simulates many SMp(x;µ,Xmax) distributions, where µ is the Poisson parameter and value of x with generally the maximum probability, and Xmax is upper limit of x with SMp(x;µ,Xmax) ≥ 0 and limit of the stochastic region of the random discrete variable X. It is shown that by simulation via, one can get many and better probabilistic distributions than by mathematical one.

We present a finite element model updating technique for soil-structure system identification of the Millikan Library building using the seismic data recorded during the 2002 Yorba Linda earthquake. A detailed finite element (FE) model of the Millikan Library building is developed in OpenSees and updated using a sequential Bayesian estimation approach for joint parameter and input identification. A two-step system identification approach is devised. First, the fixed-base structural model is updated to estimate the structural model parameters (including effective elastic modulus of structural components, distributed floor mass, and Rayleigh damping parameters) and some uncertain components of the foundation-level motion. Then, the identified structural model is used for soil-structure model updating wherein the Rayleigh damping parameters, the stiffness and viscosity of the soil subsystem (modeled using a substructure approach), and the foundation input motions (FIMs) are estimated. The identified model parameters are compared with state-of-practice recommendations. While a specific application is made for the Millikan Library, the present work offers a framework for integrating large-scale FE models with measurement data for model inversion. By utilizing this framework for different civil structures and earthquake records, key structural model parameters can be estimated from the real-world recorded data, which can subsequently be used for assessing and improving, as necessary, state-of-the-art seismic analysis and structural modeling techniques. This paper presents an effort towards using real-world measurements for large-scale FE model updating in the soil and structure, uniform soil time domain for joint parameter and input estimation, and thus paves the way for future applications in system identification, health monitoring and diagnosis of civil structures.

This paper proposes the use of Bayesian inference techniques to search for and obtain valid instruments in dynamic panel data models where endogenous variables may exist. The use of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) allows for obtaining a reduced number of instruments in comparison to the high number of instruments commonly used in the literature, and Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) methods enable efficient exploration of the instrument space, deriving accurate point estimates of the elements of interest. The proposed methodology is illustrated in a simulated case and in an empirical application, where the partial effect of a series of determinants on the attraction of international bank flows is quantified. The results highlight the importance of promoting and developing the private sector in these economies, as well as the importance of maintaining good levels of credit worthiness.

Breaching and liquefaction are two types of coastal flow slides proposed in the literature. While their final results are similar, liquefaction and breaching failure are two different processes, with breaching failure characterized by a different progression and sand movement mechanisms. In densely packed sand, breaching causes delayed sand grain discharge and negative excess pore pressures. Liquefaction, when a mass of soil suddenly behaves like a liquid, flow out over overly gentle slopes. Flow slides typically go unnoticed until the slope fails above ground because they start below the water. Without modern technology, diving equipment, risk assessment, and probabilistic and sensitivity assessments, flow slides inherently challenging. The authors developed a new sensitivity index to detect the susceptibility of coastal flow slides. It was established a sophisticated hybrid model that accommodates flow slides in sync with unpredictable variables employed in this new sensitivity index. Innovative hybrid model has three distinctive models. The Hybrid Hydrodynamic Model addresses wave, wind, current, climate change, and sediment transfer. The Monte Carlo Simulation analyses sensitivity, and the Bayesian Network calculates joint probability of coastal flow slide parameters of this new index that includes environmental characteristics, including climate change. With the assistance of these three models, researchers aim at a) presenting a methodology for coupling coastal flow slide projections with outcomes; b) distinguishing two flow slides; c) examining variables influencing flow slides. The use of such a hybrid model and risk index offers a robust and computationally efficient approach to evaluating the critical angle slope for breaching failure.

Fitting parameters on spline curves produces more parsimonious models, maintaining fit quality. Smoothing the splines reduces predictive variance. Individual splines are often fit by type of variable, e.g., in age-period-cohort models. Linear and cubic splines are most common. Several smoothing criteria have been used for parameter curves, with cubic splines fit by constraining the integral of splines’ squared-second derivatives popular recently. Constraining the sum of squared second differences for linear splines is analogous. Generally the degree of smoothing is selected using cross-validation. Known spline dummy-variable matrices allow regression estimation of splines, with smoothing done via constrained regression. Smoothing criteria based on sums of squares or absolute values of parameters, as in ridge regression or LASSO, improves predictive accuracy and produces splines similar to smoothing by second-derivative constraints. Variables with very low t-statistics represent points where curve-shapes barely change. Eliminating those variables leaves knots concentrated where spline shapes change. A Bayesian version of this puts shrinkage priors on spline parameters. This yields realistic joint parameter distributions, avoids problems associated with using cross-validation for parameter estimation, and readily expands to non-linear modeling, such as interactions among variable types. Regularized regression and Bayesian spline methods are compared for two example datasets.

We propose a generalization of Nambu-Hamilton equation in superspace $\mathbb R^{3|2}$ with three real and two Grassmann coordinates. We construct the even degree vector field in the superspace $\mathbb R^{3|2}$ by means of the right-hand sides of proposed generalization of Nambu-Hamilton equation and show that this vector field is divergenceless in superspace. Then we show that our generalization of Nambu-Hamilton equation in superspace leads to family of ternary brackets of even degree functions defined with the help of Berezinian. This family of ternary brackets is parametrized by the infinite dimensional group of invertible second order matrices, whose entries are differentiable functions on the space $\mathbb R^{3}$. We study the structure of ternary bracket in a more general case of a superspace $\mathbb R^{n|2}$ with $n$ real and two Grassmann coordinates and show that for any invertible second order functional matrix it splits into the sum of two ternary brackets, where one is usual Nambu-Poisson bracket, extended in a natural way to even degree functions in a superspace $\mathbb R^{n|2}$, and the second is a new ternary bracket, which we call $\Psi$-bracket, where $\Psi$ can be identified with invertible second order functional matrix. We prove that ternary $\Psi$-bracket as well as the whole ternary bracket (the sum of $\Psi$-bracket with usual Nambu-Poisson bracket) is totally skew-symmetric, satisfies the Leibniz rule and the Filippov-Jacobi identity (Fundamental Identity).

Energy Measurement and Verification (M&V) aims to make inferences about the savings achieved in energy projects, given the data and other information at hand. Traditionally, a frequentist approach has been used to quantify these savings and their associated uncertainties. We demonstrate that the Bayesian paradigm is an intuitive, coherent, and powerful alternative framework within which M&V can be done. Its advantages and limitations are discussed, and two examples from the industry-standard International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP) are solved using the framework. Bayesian analysis is shown to describe the problem more thoroughly and yield richer information and uncertainty quantification than the standard methods while not sacrificing model simplicity. We also show that Bayesian methods can be more robust to outliers. Bayesian alternatives to standard M&V methods are listed, and examples from literature are cited.

Vegetation status assessment is crucial for agricultural monitoring and management. Vegetation indices derived from high resolution image time series can be used to derive key phenological parameters for annual crops. In this work, we propose a procedure for the estimation of these parameters and their associated uncertainties. The approach uses Bayesian inference through Markov Chain Monte Carlo in order to obtain the full joint posterior distribution of the phenological parameters given the satellite observations. The proposed algorithm is quantitatively validated on synthetic data. Its use on real data is presented together with an application to real-time within season estimation allowing for phenology forecasting.

The incorporation of unmanned aircraft terminal operations into the scope of Detect and Avoid systems necessitates analysis of the safety performance of those systems—principally, an assessment of how well those systems prevent loss of well clear from and collision with other aircraft. This type of analysis has typically been conducted by Monte Carlo simulation with synthetic, statistically representative encounters between aircraft drawn from an appropriate encounter model. While existing encounter models include terminal airspace classes, none explicitly represents the structure expected while engaged in terminal operations, e.g., aircraft in a traffic pattern. The work described herein is an initial model of such operations, scoped at this time specifically for assessment of unmanned aircraft landings and encounters with other aircraft either landing or taking off. The model shares the Bayesian network foundation of other MIT Lincoln Laboratory encounter models but tailors those networks to address structured terminal operations, i.e., correlations between trajectories and the airfield and each other. This initial model release is intended to elicit feedback from the standards-writing community.

A vast majority of the countries is under the economic and health crises due to the current epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The present study analyzes the COVID-19 using time series, which is an essential gizmo for knowing the enlargement of infection and its changing behavior, especially the trending model. We have considered an autoregressive model with a non-linear time trend component that approximately converted into the linear trend using the spline function. The spline function split the COVID-19 series into different piecewise segments between respective knots and fitted the linear time trend. First, we obtain the number of knots with its locations in the COVID-19 series and then the estimation of the best-fitted model parameters are determined under Bayesian setup. The results advocate that the proposed model/methodology is a useful procedure to convert the non-linear time trend into a linear pattern of newly coronavirus case for various countries in the pandemic situation of COVID-19.

ACL instability poses a significant challenge in traumatology and orthopedic medicine, often requiring accurate diagnosis for appropriate treatment. While the pivot-shift test offers a crucial means of assessment, its reliance on subjective interpretation underscores the need for supplementary imaging studies. This study aims to address this limitation by developing a Bayesian classification algorithm tailored for integration into a mobile application. Using the built-in inertial sensors of smartphones, this new approach aims to dynamically evaluate rotational stability during knee examinations. Orthopedic specialists conducted knee evaluations on 52 subjects, with subsequent analysis revealing interesting insights. Intraobserver and interobserver analyses, as measured by ICC, demonstrated strong agreement both in terms of timing between maneuvers (ICC = 0.94) and signal amplitude (ICC = 0.71-0.66). Notably, the Bayesian algorithm successfully classified 95% of joint hypermobility cases, with an additional 7 cases of hyperlaxity identified by the Pivot-Shift Meter (PSM). These findings highlight the practicality and effectiveness of implementing a Bayesian classification algorithm within a mobile application for assessing and categorizing signals captured by smartphone inertial sensors during the pivot-shift test.

In this paper we consider type II bivariate generalized power series Poisson distribution as a compound Poisson distribution with bivariate generalized power series compounding distribution. We obtain some properties, p.m.f. and conditional distributions. In addition we also give a brief discussion about the multivariate extension of this case. Then we introduce type II bivariate generalized power series Poisson process and consider a bivariate risk model with type II bivariate generalized power series Poisson model as the counting process. For this model we derive distribution of the time to ruin and bounds for the probability of ruin. We obtain partial integro-differential equation for the ruin probabilities and express its bivariate transform through two univariate boundary transforms,where one of the initial capitals is fixed at zero.

Machine learning forks into three main branches such as supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and reinforcement learning where reinforcement learning is much potential to artificial intelligence (AI) applications because it solves real problems by progressive process in which possible solutions are improved and finetuned continuously. The progressive approach, which reflects ability of adaptation, is appropriate to the real world where most events occur and change continuously and unexpectedly. Moreover, data is getting too huge for supervised learning and unsupervised learning to draw valuable knowledge from such huge data at one time. Bayesian optimization (BO) models an optimization problem as a probabilistic form called surrogate model and then directly maximizes an acquisition function created from such surrogate model in order to maximize implicitly and indirectly the target function for finding out solution of the optimization problem. A popular surrogate model is Gaussian process regression model. The process of maximizing acquisition function is based on updating posterior probability of surrogate model repeatedly, which is improved after every iteration. Taking advantages of acquisition function or utility function is also common in decision theory but the semantic meaning behind BO is that BO solves problems by progressive and adaptive approach via updating surrogate model from a small piece of data at each time, according to ideology of reinforcement learning. Undoubtedly, BO is a reinforcement learning algorithm with many potential applications and thus it is surveyed in this research with attention to its mathematical ideas. Moreover, the solution of optimization problem is important to not only applied mathematics but also AI.

In this paper, we introduce a control method for the linear quadratic tracking (LQT) problem with zero steady-state error. It is achieved by augmenting the original system with an additional state representing the integrated error between the reference and actual outputs. In its essence, it is a linear quadratic integral (LQI) control embedded in a general LQT control framework, with the reference trajectory generated by a linear exogenous system. During the simulative implementation for the specific real-world system Car-in-the-Loop (CiL) test bench, we assume that the 'real' system is completely known. Therefore, for the model-based control, we can have a perfect model identical to the 'real' system. It becomes clear that stable solutions can scarcely be achieved with controller designed with the perfect model of the 'real' system. Contrary, we show that a model learnt via Bayesian Optimization (BO) can facilitate a much bigger set of stable controllers. It exhibits an improved control performance. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this discovery is the first in the LQT related literature.

Understanding surface water evaporation in tropical catchments is pivotal for effective water management, but limited research exists on stable isotopic (δ2H and δ18O) assessment of water evaporation losses. Our study bridges that gap, examining stable isotopes in meteoric water and surface waters across tropical regions, both humid and semi-arid. Using the Craig-Gordon model, we calibrated evaporation-to-inflow (E/I) ratios, identifying distinct E/I variations between seasons and regions. Notably, the semi-arid region consistently exhibited higher E/I ratios due to climatic characteristics. By integrating the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and the No-U-Turn Sampler, we were able to quantify uncertainties in isotopic and meteorological parameters, resulting in E/I estimates within 68% and 95% confidence intervals. Our Bayesian model insights are critical for freshwater resource optimization and hydrological modeling in tropical regions.

Bayesian model calibration techniques are commonly employed in the characterization of nonlinear dynamic systems, as they provide a conceptual and effective framework to deal with model uncertainties, experimental errors and procedure assumptions. This understanding has resulted in the need to introduce a model discrepancy term to account for the differences between model-based predictions and real observations. Indeed, the goal of this work is to enhance model-driven Structural Health Monitoring procedures by incorporating the posterior uncertainty linked to updated model discrepancy, and thus make relevant considerations for its use in the Structural Health Monitoring. Specifically, the Bayesian inference has been applied to the calibration of nonlinear hysteretic systems to both provide: (i) most probable values (MPV) of the parameters following the calibration, and; (ii) estimates of the model discrepancy posterior distribution. The effect of the model discrepancy in the calibration is first illustrated recurring to a single degree of freedom Bouc-Wen type oscillator, and then applied for calibrating a reference nonlinear Bouc-Wen model, deriving from real data acquired on a monitored masonry building.

When extract building from high resolution remote sensing image with meter/sub-meter accuracy, the shade of trees and interference of roads are the main factors of reducing the extraction accuracy. Proposed a Bayesian Convolutional Neural Networks(BCNET) model base on standard fully convolutional networks(FCN) to solve these problems. First take building with no shade or artificial removal of shade as Sample-A, woodland as Sample-B, road as Sample-C. Set up 3 sample libraries. Learn these sample libraries respectively, get their own set of feature vector; Mixture Gauss model these feature vector set, evaluate the conditional probability density function of mixture of noise object and roofs; Improve the standard FCN from the 2 aspect:(1) Introduce atrous convolution. (2) Take conditional probability density function as the activation function of the last convolution. Carry out experiment using unmanned aerial vehicle(UVA) image, the results show that BCNET model can effectively eliminate the influence of trees and roads, the building extraction accuracy can reach 97%.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) approaches that could learn from large data sources have been identified as useful tools to support clinicians in their decisional process; AI and ML implementations have had a rapid acceleration during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. However, many ML classifiers are “black box” to the final user, since their underlying reasoning process is often obscure. Additionally, the performance of such models suffer from poor generalization ability in presence of dataset shift. Here, we present a comparison between an explainable-by-design (“white box”) model (Bayesian Network (BN)) versus a black-box model (Random Forest), both studied with the aim to support clinicians of Policlinico San Matteo University Hospital in Pavia (Italy) during the triage of COVID-19 patients. Our aim is to evaluate whether the BN predictive performances are comparable with those of a widely used but less explainable ML model such as Random Forest and to test the generalization ability of the ML models across different waves of the pandemic.

Bootstrap resampling techinques, introduced by Efron and Rubin, can be presented in a general Bayesian framework, approximating the statistical distribution of a statistical functional φ(F), where F is a random distribution function. Efron’s and Rubin’s bootstrap procedures can be extended introducing an informative prior through the Proper Bayesian bootstrap. In this paper different bootstrap techniques are used and compared in predictive classification and regression models based on ensemble approaches, i.e. bagging models involving decision trees. Proper Bayesian bootstrap, proposed by Muliere and Secchi, is used to sample the posterior distribution over trees, introducing prior distributions on the covariates and the target variable. The results obtained are compared with respect to other competitive procedures employing different bootstrap techniques. The empirical analysis reports the results obtained on simulated and real data.

Historical forest management practices in the southwestern US have left forests prone to high intensity, stand-replacement fires. Effective management to reduce the cost and impact of forest-fire management and allow fires to burn freely without negative impact depends on detailed knowledge of stand composition, in particular, above-ground biomass (AGB). Lidar-based modeling techniques provide opportunities to reduce costs and increase ability of managers to monitor AGB and other forest metrics. Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), we develop a regionally applicable lidar-based statistical model for Ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forest systems of the southwestern USA, using previously collected field data. The selected regional model includes a mid and low canopy height metric, a canopy cover, and height distribution term. It explains 72% of the variability in field estimates of AGB, and the RMSE of the two independent validation data sets are 23.25 and 32.82 Mg/ha. The regional model developed is structured in accordance with previously described models fit to local data, and performs equivalently to models designed for smaller scale application. Developing regional models for broad scale application provides a cost-effective, robust approach for managers to monitor and plan adaptively at the landscape scale.

With continued scaling of semiconductor devices , the value of predictive analysis through 1 accurate quantum transport modeling is exponentially increasing. Quantum transmitting Boundary 2 method (QTBM) has been a well-known method of choice to model quantum transport in simple 1-D 3 devices. Here, we present an extension of the QTBM to the 2-D domain and apply it for more realistic 4 devices for accurate performance analysis.

In this study, we investigate the performance of the saddlepoint approximation of the probability mass function and the cumulative distribution function for the weighted sum of independent Poisson random variables. The goal is to approximate the hazard rate function for this complicated model. The better performance of this method is shown by numerical simulations and comparison with a performance of other approximation methods.

This paper investigates generalized Bayesian (GB) inference in the context of a one-parameter Pareto distribution. The study focuses on the derivation of generalized Bayesian estimators (GBE) and generalized empirical Bayesian estimators (GEBE) for the parameters of the Pareto distribution using type II censored data. In addition, the study investigates a one-sample prediction approach to examine generalized Bayesian prediction (GBP) and generalized empirical Bayesian prediction (GEBP). To evaluate the performance of these estimation and prediction methods, Monte Carlo simulations were performed comparing GBE with GEBE and GBP with GEBP for different parameter values and learning rate parameters (LRP).

In this paper, we obtain the existence and uniqueness theorem for solutions of Caputo type fractional stochastic delay differential systems (FSDDSs) with Poisson jumps by utilizing delayed perturbation of Mittag-Leffler function. Moreover, by using Burkholder-Davis-Gundy's inequality, Doob's martingale inequality and Holder inequality, we prove that the solution of the averaged FSDDSs converges to that of the standard FSDDSs in the sense of Lp. Some known results in the literature are extended.

Knowledge-based approaches are useful alternatives to predict the Failure Probability (FP) coping with the insufficient data, process integrity, and complexity issue in manufacturing systems. This study proposes a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) approach as proactive knowledge-based technique to estimate the FP based maintenance planning with subjective information from domain experts. However, the classical-FTA still suffers from uncertainty and static structure limitations which poses a substantial dilemma in predicting FP. To deal with the uncertainty issues, a Fuzzy-FTA (FFTA) model was developed by statistical analysing the effective attributes such as experts' trait impacts, scales variation and, assorted membership and defuzzification functions. Besides, a Bayesian Network (BN) theory was conducted to overcome the static limitation of classical-FTA. The results of FFTA model revealed that the changes in decision attributes were not statistically significant on FP variation while BN model considering conditional rules to reflect the dynamic relationship between events had more impact on predicting FP. After all, the integrated FFTA-BN model was used in the optimization model to find the optimal maintenance intervals according to estimated FP and the total expected cost. As a practical example, the proposed model was implemented in a semi-automatic filling system in an automotive production line. The outcomes could be useful for upgrading the availability and safety of complex equipment in manufacturing systems.

Understanding the spatially varying effects of demographic factors on the spatio-temporal variation of intestinal parasites infections is important for public health intervention and monitoring. This paper presents a hierarchical Bayesian spatially varying coefficient model to evaluate the effects demographic factors on intestinal parasites morbidities in Ghana. The modeling relied on morbidity data collected by the District Health Information Management Systems. We developed Poisson and Poisson-gamma spatially varying coefficient Models. We used the demographic factors, unsafe drinking water, unsafe toilet and unsafe liquid waste disposal as model covariates. The models were fitted using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA). The overall risk of intestinal parasites infection was estimated to be 10.9 per 100 people with a wide spatial variation in the district-specific posterior risk estimates. Substantial spatial variation of increasing multiplicative effects of unsafe drinking water, unsafe toilet and unsafe liquid waste disposal occurs on the variation of intestinal parasites risk. The structured residual spatial variation widely dominates the unstructured component, suggesting that the unaccounted-for risk factors are spatially continuous in nature. The study concludes that both the spatial distribution of the posterior risk and the associated exceedance probability maps are essential for monitoring and control of intestinal parasites.

The study used the data from emerging markets to examine the impact of restrictive macroprudential policies on income inequality from 2000–2019 using Bayesian panel vector autoregression and Bayesian panel dynamics generalized method of moments models. The chosen models are suitable for addressing multiple entity dynamics, accommodating a wide range of variables, handling dense parameterization, and optimizing formativeness and heterogeneous individualspecific factors. The empirical analysis utilized various macroprudential policy proxies and income inequality measures. The results show that when the central banks tighten systems using macroprudential policy instruments to sticker debt-to-income and financial instruments for lower-income borrowers (the bottom 40% of the income distribution) promote income inequality in these countries while reducing income inequality for high-income borrowers (the high 1 per-cent of the income distribution). The impact loan-to-value ratios were found to be insignificant in these countries. Fiscal policy through government expenditure and economic development reduces income inequality, while money supply and oil price shocks exacerbate it. The study suggests implementing a progressive debt-to-income (DTI) ratio system in emerging markets to ad-dress income inequality among lower-income borrowers. This would adjust DTI thresholds based on income brackets, allowing lenient credit access for lower-income borrowers while stricter limits for higher-income borrowers. This would improve financial stability and reduce income disparities. Additionally, targeted financial literacy programs and a petroleum-linked basic income program could be implemented to distribute oil revenue to lower-income households. Monetary Supply Stabilization Fund could also be established to maintain financial stability and prevent excessive inflation.

This article examines the impact of some system parameters on an industrial system composed of two dissimilar parallel units with one repairman. The active unit may fail due to essential factors like aging or deteriorating, or exterior phenomena such as Poisson shocks that occur at various time periods. Whenever the value of a shock is larger than the specified threshold of the active unit, the active unit will fail. The article assumes that the repairman has the right to take any of two decisions at the beginning of the system operation: either a takes a vacation if the two units work in a normal way, or stay in the system to monitor the system until the first system failure. In case of having a failure in any of the two units during the absence of the repairman, the failing unit will have to wait until the repairman is called back to work. We suppose that the value of every shock is assumed to be i.i.d. with some known distribution. The length of the repairman’s vacation, repair time, and recall time are arbitrary distributions. Various reliability measures have been calculated by the supplementary variable technique and the Markov’s vector process theory. At last, numerical computation and graphical analysis have been given for a particular case to validate the derived indices.

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) stands as a pivotal technological stride toward a sustainable future, with the practice of injecting supercritical CO2 into subsurface formations having already been an established practice for enhanced oil recovery operations. The overarching objective of CCS is to protract the operational viability and sustainability of platforms and oilfields, thereby facilitating a seamless transition towards sustainable practices. This study introduces a comprehensive framework for optimizing well placements in CCS operations, employing a derivative-free method known as Bayesian optimization. The development plan is tailored for scenarios featuring aquifers devoid of flow boundaries, incorporating production wells tasked with controlling pressure buildup and injection wells dedicated to CO2 sequestration. Notably, the wells operate under group control, signifying predefined injection and production targets and constraints that must be adhered to throughout the project’s lifespan. As a result, the objective function remains invariant under specific permutations of the well locations. Our investigation delves into the efficacy of Bayesian optimization under the introduced permutation invariance. The results reveal that it demonstrates critical efficiency in handling the optimization task extremely fast. In essence, this study advocates for the efficacy of Bayesian optimization in the context of optimizing well placements for CCS operations, emphasizing its potential as a preferred methodology for enhancing sustainability in the energy sector.

Generalized Bayesian (GB) is a Bayesian approach based on the learning rate parameter (LRP) () as a fraction of the power of the likelihood function. In this paper, we consider the GB method to perform inference studies for a class of exponential distributions. Generalized Bayesian estimators (GBE) and generalized empirical Bayesian estimators (GEBE) for the parameters of the considered distributions were obtained based on the censored type II samples. In addition, generalized Bayesian prediction (GBP) and generalized empirical Bayesian prediction (GEBP) were considered using a one-sample prediction scheme. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to compare the performance of the GBE and GEBE estimation results and the GBP and GEBP prediction results for different values of the LRP.

Serious crime modelling typically needs to be undertaken securely behind a firewall where police knowledge and capabilities can remain undisclosed. Data informing an ongoing incident is often sparse, with a large proportion of relevant data only coming to light after the incident culminates or after police intervene - by which point it is too late to make use of the data to aid real-time decision making for the incident in question. Much of the data that is available to police to support real-time decision making is highly confidential so cannot be shared with academics, and is therefore missing to them. In this paper, we describe the development of a formal protocol where a graphical model is used as a framework for securely translating a model designed by an academic team to a model for use by a police team. We then show, for the first time, how libraries of these models can be built and used for real-time decision support to circumvent the challenges of data missingness and tardiness seen in such a secure environment. The parallel development described by this protocol ensures that any sensitive information collected by police, and missing to academics, remains secured behind a firewall. The protocol nevertheless guides police so that they are able to combine the typically incomplete data streams that are open source with their more sensitive information in a formal and justifiable way. We illustrate the application of this protocol by describing how a new entry - a suspected vehicle attack - can be embedded into such a police library of criminal plots.

This paper focuses on a joint model to analyse longitudinal proportion and survival data. After transforming the longitudinal proportional data by a logit function, we adopt a partially linear mixed-effect model for it, in which nonlinear function of time is fitted via using B-splines technique and a centered Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (CDPMM) is specified for a general distribution of random effects. The survival data is assumed to a Cox proportional hazard model, the sharing random effects joint model is developed for the two types of data. Combining the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, we propose a Bayesian Lasso (BLasso) method to simultaneously estimate unknown parameters and select important covariates. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the finite sample performance of the proposed methods. An example from the MA.5 research experiment is used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

Classical methods for inverse problems are mainly based on regularization theory. In particular those which are based on optimization of a criterion with two parts: a data-model matching and a regularization term. Different choices for these two terms and great number of optimization algorithms have been proposed. When these two terms are distance or divergence measures, they can have a Bayesian Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) interpretation where these two terms correspond, respectively, to the likelihood and prior probability models.

The power function distribution is a flexible waiting time model that may provide better fit for some failure data. This paper presents the comparison of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates of two-parameter power function distribution. The Bayes estimates are obtained, using conjugate priors, under five loss functions consist of square error, precautionary, weighted, LINEX and DeGroot loss function. The Gibbs sampling algorithm is proposed to generate samples from posterior distributions and in result the Bayes estimates are computed. The comparison of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates are done through the root mean squared errors. One real-life data set is analyzed to illustrate the evaluation of proposed methods of estimation. Finally, results from the simulation are discussed to assess the performance behavior of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates.

We present a first formal analysis of specific and complete local integration. Complete local integration was previously proposed as a criterion for detecting entities or wholes in distributed dynamical systems. Such entities in turn were conceived to form the basis of a theory of emergence of agents within dynamical systems. Here, we give a more thorough account of the underlying formal measures. The main contribution is the disintegration theorem which reveals a special role of completely locally integrated patterns (what we call ι-entities) within the trajectories they occur in. Apart from proving this theorem we introduce the disintegration hierarchy and its refinement-free version as a way to structure the patterns in a trajectory. Furthermore we construct the least upper bound and provide a candidate for the greatest lower bound of specific local integration. Finally, we calculate the i-entities in small example systems as a first sanity check and find that ι-entities largely fulfil simple expectations.

In this paper we totally discard the traditional trial-and-error algorithms of choosing acceptable shape parameter c in the multiquadrics $-\sqrt{c^{2}+\|x\|^{2}}$ when dealing with differential equations. Instead, we choose c directly by the MN-curve theory and hence avoid the time-consuming steps of solving a linear system required by each trial of the c value in the traditional methods. The quality of the c value thus obtained is supported by the newly born choice theory of the shape parameter. Experiments show that the approximation error of the approximate solution to the differential equation is very close to the best approximation error among all possible choices of c.

Anxiety in older individuals is understudied despite its prevalence. Investigating its occurrence can be challenging, yet understanding the factors influencing its recurrence is important for improved management. This study aimed to model the recurrence of anxiety symptomatology in an older population within a five-month timeframe. Data included baseline socio-demographic and general health information for older adults aged 60 years or older with at least mild depressive symptoms. A Bayesian network model explored the relationship between baseline data and recurrent anxiety symptomatology. Model evaluation employed the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC). The Bayesian model was also compared to three machine learning models. The model achieved an AUC of 0.821 on the test data, using a threshold of 0.367. This result surpassed both the Logistic Regression and XGBoost models, but slightly behind SGDClassifier. Key factors associated with recurrence of anxiety symptomatology were: “Not being able to stop or control worrying”; “Becoming easily annoyed or irritable”; “Trouble relaxing”; and “depressive symptomatology severity”. The model demonstrated generalisation abilities and outperformed some machine learning models while being less complex and more explainable. These findings indicate a prioritised sequence of predictors to identify individuals most likely to experience recurrent anxiety symptomatology.

Species distribution models have become tools of great importance in ecology since the advanced knowledge of suitable habitat of species is needed in the process of the world's biodiversity conservation. Models that use presence-only data are of great interests and are widely used in ecology due to their easy access. However, these models do not estimate accurately the true spatial species distribution based solely on presence-only data since they do not account for biases induced by the sampling techniques used and imperfect detection. To address this gap, Hierarchical integrated models have been recently introduced. Through this study, we assessed the relative performance of these new SDMs models using simulated data. The performance of the models was tested by comparing the estimates of parameters of the distribution models they provide with parameters used to simulate the distribution of the virtual species. The best model was the one whose estimates were close to the true distribution parameters of the virtual species. Results showed that analyzing Presence-only data in conjunction with Point-counts data through the Dorazio's Hierarchical model produced estimates of the coecients of the species intensity models with high precision and less bias while the Koshkina integrated model showed poor performance. Site-occupancy data, being not informative of species abundance, did not allow reducing biases in Presence-only data. The Dorazio's Hierarchical model produced estimates with high precision even with low detection probability. We have also found that the species rarity tends to in ate the variability of the models' estimates making modelling abundant species to be more accurate than modelling less abundant species. Hence, to model the species distribution with high precision based on Presence-only data, additional Point-counts data are required to account for sampling bias and imperfect detection.

In this paper, we focus on variational Bayesian learning deterministic optimization methods for inference in biparametric exponential models where the parameters follow semiparametric regression structures. This combination of data models and algorithms contributes to solving real-world problems and reduces the computation time. This allows both the rapid exploration of many data models and the accurate estimation of the mean and variance functions through the connection between generalized linear models and graph theory. A simulation study was carried out to assess the performance of the deterministic approximation. Finally, herein, we present an application using macroeconomic data to emphasize the benefits of the proposed approach.

The increasing prevalence of species that are detrimental to biodiversity is a major concern, particularly for managers of National Parks. To develop effective programs for controlling weeds, it is essential to have a thorough understanding of the extent and severity of infestations, as well as the contributing factors such as temperature, rainfall, and disturbance. Predicting these factors on a regional scale requires models that can incorporate a wide range of variables in a quantifiable manner, while also assisting with on-ground operations. In this study, we present two Bayesian Network models specifically designed for six significant weed species found along the southern coast of Australia. Our models are based on empirical data collected during a coastal weed survey conducted in 2015 and repeated in 2016. We applied these models to the coastal national parks in the isolated and pristine East Gippsland region. Importantly, the prediction models were developed at two different spatial scales that directly corresponded to the scale of the observations. Our findings indicate that coastal habitats, with their vulnerable environments and prevalence of open dune systems, are particularly susceptible to weed infestations. Moreover, adjacent regions also have the potential for colonization if these infestations are not effectively controlled. Climate-related factors play a role in moderating the potential for colonization, which is a significant concern for weed control efforts in the context of global climate change.

We propose a novel adaptive importance sampling scheme for Bayesian inversion problems where the inference of the variables of interest and the power of the data noise is split. More specifically, we consider a Bayesian analysis for the variables of interest (i.e., the parameters of the model to invert), whereas we employ a maximum likelihood approach for the estimation of the noise power. The whole technique is implemented by means of an iterative procedure, alternating sampling and optimization steps. Moreover, the noise power is also used as a tempered parameter for the posterior distribution of the the variables of interest. Therefore, a sequence of tempered posterior densities is generated, where the tempered parameter is automatically selected according to the actual estimation of the noise power. A complete Bayesian study over the model parameters and the scale parameter can be also performed. Numerical experiments show the benefits of the proposed approach.

This paper considers estimating the ratio of two distributions with different parameters and common supports. We consider a Bayesian approach based on the Log--Huber loss function which is resistant to outliers and useful to find robust M-estimators. We propose two different types of Bayesian density ratio estimators and compare their performance in terms of Bayesian risk function with themselves as well as the usual plug-in density ratio estimators. Some applications such as classification and divergence function estimation are addressed.

Technology development changes society and society demands new and innovative technology development. We analyze technology to understand society and technology itself. Many researches have been introduced in various fields. Most of them were about patent analysis. This is because detailed and accurate results of research and development are patented. In this paper, we study on new patent analysis method based on count data model and Bayesian regression analysis. Using count data model, we analyze the technological keywords extracted from the collected patent documents. We use the posterior distribution of Bayesian statistics to reflect the experience and knowledge of the relevant technological experts in the analysis model. Moreover, we apply the proposed model to finding sustainable technologies. Finding and developing sustainable technologies is an important activity for companies and research institutes to maintain their technological competitiveness. To illustrate how our modeling could be applied to real domain, we carry out a case study using the patent documents related to artificial intelligence.

This paper formulates the classic Monty Hall problem as a Bayesian game. Allowing Monty a small amount of freedom in his decisions facilitates a variety of solutions. The solution concept used is the Bayes Nash Equilibrium (BNE), and the set of BNE relies on Monty's motives and incentives. We endow Monty and the contestant with common prior probabilities (p) about the motives of Monty, and show that under certain conditions on p, the unique equilibrium is one where the contestant is indifferent between switching and not switching. This coincides and agrees with the typical responses and explanations by experimental subjects. Finally, we show that our formulation can explain the experimental results in Page (1998) [12]; that more people gradually choose switch as the number of doors in the problem increases.

Categorical variables are common in spatial data analysis. Traditional analytical methods for deriving probabilities of class occurrence, such as kriging-family algorithms, have been hindered by the discrete characteristics of categorical fields. This study introduces the theoretical backgrounds of linear Bayesian updating (LBU) approach for spatial classification through expert system. Transition probabilities are interpreted as expert opinions for updating the prior marginal probabilities of categorical response variables. The main objective of this paper is to present the solid theoretical foundations of LBU and provide a categorical random field prediction method which yields relatively higher classification accuracy compared with conventional Markov chain random field (MCRF) approach. A real-world case study has also been carried out to demonstrate the superiority of our method. Since the LBU idea is originated from aggregating expert opinions and not restricted to conditional independent assumption (CIA), it may prove to be reasonably adequate for analyzing complex geospatial data sets, like remote sensing images or area-class maps.

Flood frequency analysis at large scales, essential for the development of flood risk maps, is hindered by the uncertainty in outputs of process-based hydrological models and the scarcity of gauge flow data. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) based on the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for regional flood frequency analysis at high resolution across North America. Our model leverages annual maximum flow data from ≈20000 gauged stations and a dataset of 130 static catchment-specific covariates to predict extreme flows at all catchments over the continent as well as their associated statistical uncertainty. Additionally, a modification is made to the data layer of the BHM to include daily gauge discharge data when available, which improves the precision of the discharge level estimates. We validated the model using a hold-out approach and found that its predictive power is very good for the GEV distribution location and scale parameters and improveable for the shape parameter, which is notoriously hard to estimate. The resulting discharge return levels yield satisfying agreement when compared with available design peak discharge from various government sources. Assessment of the covariates’ contributions to the model also informs on the most relevant underlying factors influencing flood-inducing peak flows. The key covariates in our model are temperature-related bioindicators, the catchment drainage area and geographical location.

In this paper, under the symmetric entropy and the scale squared error loss functions, we consider the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and Bayesian estimation of the Shannon entropy and Rényi entropy of the two-parameter inverse Weibull distribution. In the ML estimation, the dichotomy is used to solve likelihood equation. In addition, the approximation confidence interval is given by the Delta method. Because the form of estimation results is more complex in the Bayesian estimation, the Lindley approximation method is used to achieve the numerical calculation. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations and a real data set are used to illustrate the results derived. By comparing the mean square error between the estimated value and the real value, it can be found that the performance of ML estimation of Shannon entropy is better than that of Bayesian estimation, and there is no significant difference between the performance of ML estimation of Rényi entropy and that of Bayesian estimation.

Bayesian nonlinear mixed effects models for data in the form of continuous, repeated measurements from a population, also known as Bayesian hierarchical nonlinear models, are a popular platform for analysis when interest focuses on individual specific characteristics and relevant uncertainty quantification. Due to the limitation of computational power, this framework was relatively dormant until the late 1980s, but in recent years, the statistical research community saw vigorous development of new methodological and computational techniques for these models, the emergence of software, and wide application of the models in numerous industrial and academic fields. This article presents an overview of the formulation, interpretation, and implementation of Bayesian nonlinear mixed effects models and surveys recent advances and applications.

For each $t\in(-1,1)$, exact values of the least upper bounds $$ H(t)=\sup_{\E X=t,\,\E X^2=1} \frac{\E\abs{X}^3}{\E \abs{X-t}^3},\quad \sup_{\E X=t,\,\E X^2=1} \frac{L_1(X)}{L_1(X-t)} $$ are obtained, where $L_1(X)=\E|X|^3/(\E X^2)^{3/2}$ is the non-cental Lyapunov ratio. It is demonstrated that these values are attained only at two-point distributions. As a corollary, S.\,Shorgin's conjecture is proved that states that the exact value is $$ \sup\frac{L_1(X)}{L_1(X-\E X)}= \frac{\sqrt{17 + 7\sqrt7}}{4} = 1.4899\ldots, $$ where the supremum is taken over all non-degenerate distributions of the random variable $X$ with the finite third moment. Also, in terms of the central Lyapunov ratio $L_1(X-\E X)$, an analog of the Berry--Esseen inequality is proved for Poisson random sums of independent identically distributed random variables with the constant $$ 0.3031\cdot H\left(\frac{\E X}{\sqrt{\E X^2}}\right) \left(1-\frac{(\E X)^2}{\E X^2}\right)^{3/2} \le 0.3031\cdot \frac{\sqrt{17 + 7\sqrt7}}{4}<0.4517.$$ where $\Law(X)$ is the common distribution of the summands.

This study examines the causal relationships between interest rates in the Korean financial market using a vector error correction model (VECM) and a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network, a novel approach in this context, identifies two distinct transmission channels: one led by call rates (reflecting monetary policy) and another by 10-year Treasury bond yields (reflecting fiscal policy). While the call rate channel aligns with traditional views, affecting bank lending rates, corporate bond spreads, and commercial paper rates, the 10-year Treasury yield channel highlights a separate fiscal policy transmission mechanism, influencing commercial paper rates indirectly through 30-year Treasury yields and directly impacting merchant bank lending rates. This finding suggests that fiscal intervention could potentially interfere with monetary policy, emphasizing the need for coordinated macroeconomic policy measures. The study also emphasizes the role of 10-year Treasury bonds as a benchmark in the Korean bond market, reflecting medium- to long-term economic outlooks and serving as the underlying asset for various derivatives.

Oral squamous cell carcinoma often arises from an oral potentially malignant disorder called oral leukoplakia (OL). With this work we aimed to develop a novel data-driven predictive model based on gene expression profiles to distinguish OL patients who underwent malignant transformation from those who did not. We used the Tree Augmented Naïve (TAN) Bayes classifier to predict the posterior probability of having oral cancer given the data. 86 patients were included with a median follow-up of 7.11 years. Fifty-one patients (51/86; 59%) underwent malignant transformation. We found that 16 genes were predictors of oral cancer in patients with OL and these included SLC7A11, SPINK6, SERPINA12, VIT, ATP1B3, CST6, FLRT2, ELMOD1, AZGP1, RNASE13, DIO2, ECM1, CYP4F11, SYTL4, AKR1C1, and AKR1C3. In conclusion, we showed that Bayesian gene networks are a data-driven approach which could be used also in other predictor models in oncology.

Lysine is the first limiting essential amino acid in rice because it is present in the lowest quantity compared to all the other amino acids. Amino acids are the building block of proteins and play an essential role in maintaining the human body’s healthy functioning. Rice is a staple food for large proportion of the global population, thus increasing the lysine content in rice will improve its nutritional value. In this paper, we studied the lysine biosynthesis pathway in rice (Oryza Sativa) to identify the regulators of the lysine reporter gene LYSA (LOC_Os02g24354). Genetically intervening at the regulators has the potential to increase the overall lysine content in rice. We modeled the lysine biosynthesis pathway in rice seedlings under normal and saline (NaCl) stress conditions using Bayesian networks. We estimated the model parameters using experimental data and identified the gene DAPF(LOC_Os12g37960) as a positive regulator of the lysine reporter gene LYSA under both normal and saline stress conditions. Based on this analysis, we conclude that the gene DAPF is a potent candidate for genetic intervention. Upregulating DAPF using methods such as CRISPR-Cas9 has the potential to upregulate the lysine reporter gene LYSA and increase the overall lysine content in rice.

The ability to smell is crucial for most species as it enables the detection of environmental threats like smoke, fosters social interactions, and contributes to the sensory evaluation of food and eating behavior. The high prevalence of smell disturbances throughout the life span calls for a continuous effort to improve tools for quick and reliable assessment of olfactory function. Odor-dispensing pens, called Sniffin' Sticks, are an established method to deliver olfactory stimuli during diagnostic evaluation. We tested the suitability of a Bayesian adaptive algorithm (QUEST) to estimate olfactory sensitivity using Sniffin' Sticks by comparing QUEST sensitivity thresholds with those obtained using a procedure based on an established standard staircase protocol. Thresholds were measured twice with both procedures in two sessions (Test and Retest). Overall, both procedures exhibited considerable overlap with QUEST displaying slightly higher test-retest correlations, less variability between measurements, and reduced testing duration. Notably, participants were more frequently presented with the highest concentration during the QUEST which may foster adaptation and habituation effects. We conclude that further research is required to better understand and optimize the procedure for assessment of olfactory performance.

This paper deals with the formulation of a Cobot kinematic model by developing both the direct and inverse kinematics and choosing the noa transformation matrix for defining the end-effector position and orientation with respect to the base frame. These algorithms have been validated via software in Matlab environment and by means of suitable experimental tests, which have been carried out by using a UR5e Cobot. Moreover, a specific industrial application regarding the robotized assembling of a multi-cylinder IC engine, has been designed in terms of layout and corresponding automatic cycle that is intended as a sequence of the robot elementary actions. In particular, the proposed robotized cell is composed by the UR5e Cobot along with its controller and a suitable electropneumatic circuit that includes a PLC with its user interface, which are both governed by means of a specific electronic board and a switch control box. The IC engine in scale of 1:5 and specific parts of the end-effector, which takes the role of vacuum gripper and torque limiting screwdriver, have been designed and manufactured by using a 3D printer.

Background: Metabolic flux analysis (MFA) is an indispensable tool in metabolic engineering. The simplest variant of MFA relies on an overdetermined stoichiometric model of the cell’s metabolism under the pseudo-steady state assumption, to evaluate the intracellular flux distribution. Despite its long history, the issue of model error in the overdetermined MFA, particularly misspecifications of the stoichiometric matrix, has not received much attention. Method: We evaluated the performance of statistical tests from linear least square regressions, namely Ramsey RESET test, F-test and Lagrange multiplier test, in detecting model misspecifications in the overdetermined MFA, particularly missing reactions. We further proposed an iterative procedure using the F-test to correct such an issue. Result: Using Chinese hamster ovary and random metabolic networks, we demonstrated that: (1) a statistically significant regression does not guarantee high accuracy of the flux estimates, (2) the removal of a reaction with a low flux magnitude can cause disproportionately large biases in the flux estimates, (3) the F-test could efficiently detect missing reactions, and (4) the proposed iterative procedure could robustly resolve the omission of reactions. Conclusion: Our work demonstrated that statistical analysis and tests could be used to systematically assess, detect and resolve model misspecifications in the overdetermined MFA.

Amidst the escalating demands for efficient Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) management, the significance of accurate Origin-Destination (OD) data prediction has emerged as a paramount concern, given its indispensable role in the ITS domain. This paper introduces a groundbreaking integrated model, creatively fusing the unique strengths of Graph Convolutional Network (GCN), Residual Neural Network (ResNet), and Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM) into a single architecture, which we name GraphResLSTM, to exploit road segment average speed data for OD prediction. Compared with conventional road segment traffic volume data, average speed data is more readily available, significantly reducing the data accessibility barrier for OD prediction. We underscore the critical role of selection of key road segments and employs a combination of Entropy Weight Method and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to identify 41 representative road segments from the experimental road network. In the experimental phase, we simulate 86400000 seconds of traffic conditions, generating a total of 1440000 data records. Utilizing these simulated data, we design and conduct comparative experiments between models as well as data types. The results demonstrate that both the GraphResLSTM model and road segment average speed data outperform other models and data types notably in OD prediction tasks.

The current study compared the goodness of fit and estimation precision of Bayes and maximum likelihood (ML) structural equation modeling across sample sizes. Data consisted of Markov Chain Monte Carlo generated samples of 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, 200, 250, 500, 750, 1000, and 1500 observations. The Bayes and ML methods were used to estimate a structural equation model with 40 parameters, including 12 continuous observed indicators, four latent variables, and three structural paths. Analyses were conducted with the Mplus 8.0 statistical software and were replicated 500 times with each of the 22 conditions (11 sample sizes x 2 estimation methods). Indices of model fit were the Bayes information criterion, the Tucker-Lewis index, the comparative fit index, the root mean square error of approximation, the posterior predictive p-value (for Bayes models), and the ꭓ2 test (for ML models). Results showed that as the sample size increased, both estimation methods exhibited improved model fit and enhanced estimation precision, and both methods performed well with samples of 200 or larger; however, ML demonstrated a marginally superior fit with smaller samples. These findings were not consistent with previous research and suggest that ML remains a better choice with continuous data and small samples.

The general objective of the study is to analyze food insecurity determinants mainly related to food price at macro level. The study used a time series data from the year 1988 quarter one to 2018 quarter four. Our empirical finding on the macroeconomic model show the short term consequence of food price change is positive with food security (negative with food insecurity). The long term consequence of food price change is, however, negative with food security (positive with food insecurity) at macro level. From the variance decomposition, it can be learned that the speed by which the undernourished people decrease in number in the short term because of the inflation happened is higher than the speed by which the number of undernourished people increase in the long run. At macro level, concern should be made to the supply side for food security improvement.

Background: All Payer Claims Databases (APCD) are a rich source of health information, however, race and ethnicity (R&E) data are largely missing. Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) is a common R&E imputation method, yet, validation of BISG in APCDs is lacking. We used the BISG to impute missing R&E in the Oregon APCD. Methods: BISG imputed R&E for Asian Pacific Islanders (API), Blacks, Hispanics and Whites were contrasted to the gold standard (vital statistics) and sensitivity and specificity improvements were assessed. Logistic regression examined whether missing R&E was random across patient characteristics. Results: Among 85,857 individuals in the study, 32.1% (n=27,594) had missing R&E. Missing R&E was not randomly distributed. There were higher odds of missingness among males, Whites, those age 65 and older, and commercially insured individuals. Differences in the percent missing were also found by co-morbid conditions and mortality causes. Imputing the missing R&E with BISG method improved the sensitivity to identify White, Black, API, and Hispanics. Conclusions: APCDs can benefit from enhancing missing R&E with BISG imputation to perform more robust population-health level analyses and identify inequities according to R&E without losing power or dropping non-random records with missing R&E data.

The studied solar pot is a recent invention, which gained a utility model protection in 2021 from the Hungarian Intellectual Property Office under patent number 5489. The device is made for environmentally friendly cooking or heating (by utilizing solar energy) of foods and liquids. Its structure is similar to a double pipe heat exchanger, it has an outer mantle and an inner cooking tank. The goals of the paper are proposing a new physically-based mathematical model describing the solar pot and carrying out computer experiments with it, assembling an experimental system of the pot connected with a solar collector and performing measurements on it. Based on the results, the solar pot can successfully be used for cooking or sterilizing foods or liquids during the studied time period, in Hungary.

This paper aims to demonstrate how the detection of communities for epidemiological networks can be used to reduce the dimensionality of optimal control problems. A range of planted partition stochastic blockmodels are generated, where the underlying communities in the model vary in detectability. A high-performance computing workflow is then used to simulate and estimate reduced model dynamics for the networks, which in turn is used to find optimal control solutions.

Pulmonary Embolism (PE) is the obstruction of blood arteries in the lungs by a blood clot. The mortality risk for PE is approximately 30%. Detecting pulmonary embolism in the segmental arteries of the lung is more challenging than in the main arteries and is very prone to being missed. A computer-based approach was created in this work to automatically identify pulmonary embolism in the segmental arteries using computed tomography images. The system's infrastructure includes an enhanced Mask R-CNN deep neural network that has been trained with images containing PE. The network accurately identifies the location of the pulmonary embolism on the computed tomography picture and successfully extracts its borders. The investigation was conducted by generating a local dataset. The study's performance was evaluated using pulmonary embolisms identified manually by the expert radiologist. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, dice coefficient, and Jaccard index values for 2130 pictures were 96.4%, 93.5%, 96.1%, 0.96, and 0.90, respectively. The improved Mask R-CNN model has demonstrated superior performance when compared to the traditional Mask R-CNN and U-Net models. This high-performance technology is designed to identify pulmonary embolism and will aid professionals in assessing the size of the embolism.

Estimating the ocean’s subsurface thermohaline information from satellite measurements is essential for understanding ocean dynamics and El Niño phenomenon. This paper proposes an improved double-output Residual Neural Network (DO-ResNet) model to concurrently estimate the ocean subsurface temperature (OST) and ocean subsurface salinity (OSS) in the tropical Western Pacific using multi-source remote sensing data, including sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface height anomaly(SSHA), sea surface wind (SSW), and geographical information (including longitude (LON) and latitude (LAT)). In the model experiment, Argo data were used to train and validate the model, and the root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and coefficient of determination (R²) were employed to evaluate the model's performance. The results showed that the sea surface parameters selected in this study have a positive effect on the estimation process, and the average RMSE and R² values for estimating OST (OSS) by the proposed model are 0.34 °C (0.05 psu) and 0.91 (0.95), respectively. Under the data conditions considered in this study, DO-ResNet demonstrates superior performance relative to the extreme gradient boosting model, random forest model, and artificial neural network model. Additionally, this study evaluates the model’s accuracy by comparing its estimations of OST and OSS across different depths with Argo-derived data, demonstrating the model's ability to effectively capture the most spatial features, and by comparing NRMSE across different depths and seasons, the model displays strong seasonal adaptability. In conclusion, this research introduces a novel artificial intelligence technique for estimating OST and OSS in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean.

This article systematically studied the A-optimal designs of a high-order mixture central polynomial model, which is an advancement of the research results for the A-optimal design of the most recent third-order mixture central polynomial model and a more accurate response surface model. This article is based on the simplex center design, obtaining measurement values at various design points, and verifying them through the A-optimal equivalence theorem. We also compare the A-efficiency of designs through examples, which can be applied to the A-optimal precise design of the fourth-order mixture model.

Refractoriness to antiseizure medications is still a major concern in the pharmacotherapy of epilepsy. For this reason, we decided to evaluate the combination of levetiracetam and cannabidiol, administered at a subthreshold dose, to limit the possible adverse effects of this phytocannabinoid. We administered levetiracetam (300 mg/kg/day, via osmotic minipumps), cannabidiol (120 mg/kg/day, injected once a day subcutaneously), or their combination for one week in epileptic rats. Saline-treated epileptic rats were the control group. Animals were monitored with video electroencephalography the week before and after the treatment. No changes were found in the controls. Levetiracetam did not significantly reduce the total seizure number or the overall seizure duration. Still, the overall number of seizures (p&lt;0.001, Duncan’s new multiple range test) and their total duration (p&lt;0.01) increased in the week following treatment withdrawal. Cannabidiol did not change seizures when administered as a single drug. Instead, levetiracetam combined with cannabidiol resulted in a significant reduction in the overall number and duration of seizures (p&lt;0.05), when comparing values measured during treatment with both pre- and post-treatment values. These findings depended on changes in convulsive seizures, while non-convulsive seizures were stable. These results suggest cannabidiol determined a remarkable potentiation of levetiracetam antiseizure effects at a subthreshold dose.

Public safety and intelligent surveillance systems critically depend on anomaly behavior detection for effective monitoring. In real-world pedestrian detection scenarios, prevalent challenges such as missed detections, complex background interference, and small target sizes hinder accurate anomaly identification. To address these issues, this study introduces YOLO-ABD, a lightweight method for anomaly behavior detection that integrates small target detection and channel shuffling. This method employs YOLOv8n as the baseline model, incorporating a small target detection mechanism in the Head part and utilizing GSConv convolution in the Backbone to enhance perceptual capability. Additionally, the SimAM attention mechanism is integrated to mitigate complex background interference, thereby improving target detection performance. Evaluation on the IITB-Corridor dataset demonstrated mAP50 and mAP50-95 scores of 89.3% and 60.6%, respectively. Generalization testing on the street-view-gdogo dataset further highlighted the superiority of YOLO-ABD over advanced detection algorithms, underscoring its effectiveness and generalizability. With a relatively small parameter count, YOLO-ABD presents an excellent lightweight solution for pedestrian anomaly behavior detection.

In order to shorten the detection time and improve the average precision on embedded devices, A lightweight and high accuracy model is proposed for passion fruit in complex environments (backlight, occlusion, overlap, sunny, cloudy, rainy). Firstly, replacing the backbone network of YOLOv5 with a lightweight GhostNet model reduces the number of parameters and computation while improving detection speed. Secondly, a new feature branch is added to the GhostNet network, and the feature fusion layer in the neck network is reconstructed to effectively combine the lower-level and higher-level features, which not only improves the accuracy of the model but also maintains its lightweight. Finally, the knowledge distillation methods are used to transfer the knowledge from the more capable teacher model to the less capable student model, which significantly improving the detection accuracy. The improved model is denoted as G-YOLO-NK. The average accuracy of the G-YOLO-NK network is 96.00%, which is 1.00% higher than the original YOLOv5s model. Furthermore, the improved model size is 7.14MB, reduced to half of the original model, and the real-time detection frame rate is 11.25 FPS on the Jetson Nano. Compared to the state-of-the-art model, the proposed model outperforms them in terms of average precision and detection performance. The present work provides an effective model for real-time detection of passion fruits in complex orchard scenes, which can provide valuable technical support for the development of orchard picking robots and greatly improve the intelligence level of orchards.

This paper presents a scenario evolution model for maritime accidents using Bayesian networks (BN) to predict the most likely causes of specific types of maritime incidents. The BN nodes encompass accident type, life loss contingency, accident severity, the quarter and time period of the accident, and the type and gross tonnage of the ships involved. We analyzed 5,660 global maritime accidents from 2005 to 2020. Using Netica software, we constructed a Tree Augmented Network (TAN) model, accounting for interdependencies among risk influencing factors. We validated the results through sensitivity analysis and historical accident records. Forward causal inference and reverse diagnostic inference were then performed on each node variable to investigate the accident development trend and evolution process under predetermined conditions. The findings indicate that the model can effectively predict the likelihood of various accident scenarios under specific conditions, as well as the extrapolation of accident consequences. Forward causal reasoning reveals that general cargo ships with a gross tonnage of 1-18,500 t are most likely to experience collision, grounding, and stranding accidents in the first quarter. Reverse diagnostic reasoning indicates that during early morning hours, container ships, general cargo ships, and chemical ships with a tonnage of 1-18,500 t are less likely to involve life loss in the event of collision accidents.

In many Bayesian computations, first, we obtain the expression of the joint distribution of all the unknown variables given the observed data. In general, this expression is not separable in those variables. Thus, obtaining their marginals for each variable and computing the expectations are difficult and costly. This problem becomes even more difficult in high dimensional quandaries, which is an important issue in inverse problems. We may then try to propose a surrogate expression with which we can do approximate computations. Often a separable expression approximation can be useful enough. The Variational Bayesian Approximation (VBA) is a technique that approximates the joint distribution $p$ with an easier, for example separable, one $q$ by minimizing Kullback–Leibler Divergence $KL(q|p)$. When $q$ is separable in all the variables, the approximation is also called Mean Field Approximation (MFA) and so $q$ is the product of the approximated marginals. A first standard and general algorithm is alternate optimization of $KL(q|p)$ with respect to $q_i$. A second general approach is its optimization in the Riemannian manifold. However, in this paper, for practical reasons, we consider the case where $p$ is in the exponential family and so is $q$. For this case, $KL(q|p)$ becomes a function of the parameters $\thetab$ of the exponential family. Then, we can use any other optimization algorithm to obtain those parameters. In this paper, we compare three optimization algorithms: standard alternate optimization, a gradient-based algorithm and a natural gradient algorithm and study their relative performances on three examples.

The adoption of Machine Learning (ML) for building emulators for complex physical processes has seen an exponential rise in the recent years. While neural networks are good function approximators, optimizing the hyper-parameters of the network to reach a global minimum is not trivial, and often needs human knowl- edge and expertise. In this light, automatic ML or autoML methods have gained large interest as they automate the process of network hyper-parameter tuning. In addition, Neural Architecture Search (NAS) has shown promising outcomes for improving model performance. While autoML methods have grown in popularity for image, text and other applications, their effectiveness for high-dimensional, complex scientific datasets remains to be investigated. In this work, a data driven emulator for turbulence closure terms in the context of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) models is trained using Artificial Neural Networks and an autoML frame- work based on Bayesian Optimization, incorporating priors to jointly optimize the hyper-parameters as well as conduct a full neural network architecture search to converge to a global minima, is proposed. Additionally, we compare the effect of using different network weight initializations and optimizers such as ADAM, SGDM and RMSProp, to explore the best performing setting. Weight and function space similarities during the optimization trajectory are investigated, and critical differences in the learning process evolution are noted and compared to theory. We observe ADAM optimizer and Glorot initialization consistently performs better, while RMSProp outperforms SGDM as the latter appears to have been stuck at a local minima. Therefore, this autoML BayesOpt framework provides a means to choose the best hyper-parameter settings for a given dataset.