The profile of secondary metabolites occurring in apple cuticular layer is not only characteristic for particular apple cultivar, but also dynamically reflects various external factors in growing environment. In this study, the possibility to authenticate apple samples based on analysis of their cuticular layer extracts was investigated. Ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to high resolution tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-HRMS/MS) was employed for obtaining metabolomic fingerprints. In total, 274 authentic apple samples, four cultivars harvested within the seasons 2020 to 2022 in the Czech Republic and Poland were analysed. The generated complex data processed by univariate and multivariate statistical methods enabled to build classification models for discrimination of apple cultivars as well as their geographical origin. The models showed very good performance in differentiation of Czech and Polish samples for three of four cultivars: ‘Gala’, ‘Golden Delicious’ and ‘Idared’, moreover, the validity of the models was verified over harvest seasons. The diagnostic markers, besides metabolites of triterpene biosynthetic pathway, mainly represented wax esters. ‘Jonagold’, which is known to be susceptible to mutations, was the only cultivar for which the unambiguous classification of geographical origin was not possible.

Plant cells' ability to withstand abiotic stress is strongly linked to modifications in their mechanical characteristics. Nevertheless, the lack of a workable method for consistently tracking plant cell mechanical properties severely restricts our comprehension of the mechanical alterations in plant cells under stress. With Polyethylene Glycol (PEG6000), we created a drought-like environment, and we used the Double Resonator Piezoelectric Cytometry (DRPC) method to dynamically and non-invasively track changes in the stress (ΔS) created and viscoelasticity (storage modulus G' and loss modulus G") of protoplasts and suspension cells of rice during drought stress. The findings demonstrate that, rice suspension cells and protoplasts react mechanically differently to 5%–15% PEG6000 stress, implying distinct resistance mechanisms. However, neither of them can withstand 25% PEG6000 stress, they respond mechanically similarly to 25% PEG6000 stress. The results of DRPC are further corroborated by the morphological alterations of rice cells and protoplasts observed under an optical microscope. To sum up, the DRPC technique functions as a precise cellular mechanical sensor and offers novel research tools for the evaluation of plant cell adversity and differentiating between the mechanical reactions of cells and protoplasts under abiotic stress.

Vibration signal analysis is regarded as a fundamental approach in diagnosing faults in rolling bearings, and recent advancements have shown notable progress in this domain. However, the presence of substantial background noise often results in the masking of these fault signals, posing a significant challenge for researchers. In response, an Adaptive Denoising Autoencoder (ADAE) approach is proposed in this paper. The data representations are learned by the encoder through convolutional layers, while the data reconstruction is performed by the decoder using deconvolutional layers. Both the encoder and decoder incorporate adaptive shrinkage units to simulate denoising functions, effectively removing interfering information while preserving sensitive fault features. Additionally, dropout regularization is applied to sparsify the network and prevent overfitting, thereby enhancing the overall expressive power of the model. To further enhance ADAE's noise resistance, shortcut connections are added. Evaluation using publicly available datasets under scenarios with known and unknown noise demonstrates that ADAE effectively enhances the signal-to-noise ratio in strongly noisy backgrounds, facilitating accurate diagnosis of faults in rolling bearings.

Energy Measurement and Verification (M&V) aims to make inferences about the savings achieved in energy projects, given the data and other information at hand. Traditionally, a frequentist approach has been used to quantify these savings and their associated uncertainties. We demonstrate that the Bayesian paradigm is an intuitive, coherent, and powerful alternative framework within which M&V can be done. Its advantages and limitations are discussed, and two examples from the industry-standard International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP) are solved using the framework. Bayesian analysis is shown to describe the problem more thoroughly and yield richer information and uncertainty quantification than the standard methods while not sacrificing model simplicity. We also show that Bayesian methods can be more robust to outliers. Bayesian alternatives to standard M&V methods are listed, and examples from literature are cited.

In this study, we investigate the growth of EV ownership among Swedish households. Through detailed socio-economic data and the Swedish vehicle register, we are able compare characteristics of households that bought an EV in 2016 with those that became EV owners in 2020. We are thus able to describe and analyse the transition from the early EV owners to the early majority. Unlike many prior studies in the field, which are based on surveys or interviews, this study relies on registry data, thereby encompassing all car owners in Sweden. In this study, we have also scrutinized the significance of ownership mode by distinguishing between households that have chosen to purchase a car and those that have chosen to lease one. The results show that the demand for EVs has reached new consumer groups, e.g. both younger and older car buyers, and that the option to lease a car privately has broadened the market for new cars in general, and for EV’s in particular.

Regulation of the diet in terms of the content of soluble and insoluble fibre is of great importance from the point of view of dietetics, microbiology of the gastrointestinal tract and immunology of the organism. Dietary fibre plays an important role in maintaining the balance between the con-tinuity of gut mucus production (intestinal mucosa), the stability of the intestinal microbiome composition, the regeneration of the intestinal epithelium and the immune status within the gut-associated lymphoid tissue (GALT) are played by pectin and their metabolic products in the form of pectin oligosaccharides. The main purpose of this review was to focus on pectin, their functions, their impact on the human's health and on some of the most promising prebiotics due to their solubility in the gastrointestinal tract in the form of pectin oligosaccharides. They have the properties of pectin, but have also additional features and postbiotics obtained in fermentation process can affect the intestinal microbiome and GALT-related immunity. They can be obtained from plant agro-wastes.

Previous high throughput screening studies indicated trans-eQTLs tend to be tissue specific. In this study, I probed if this feature can be used to identify tissue-specific gene regulatory networks. eQTL data (P<5e-8) for 16,259 genes were identified and their summary association statistics were obtained from the eQTLGene database. Next, eQTLs that display both cis and trans regulatory effects were selected and the association between their corresponding genes were examined using Mendelian randomization. A total of 169 genes that exerted trans-regulatory impacts on 692 genes were identified. 90% of the genes (N=749) aggregated into a gene regulatory network significantly enriched in hemo-immune processes. The robustness of finding was confirmed through simulation. The identified network displayed the scale-free topology. This provided the reason to examine the association of the network’s hub genes with the phenome. The outcome of analyses revealed GSDMB and ORMDL3 impact several disorders of immune origin and ALDH2 overexpression contributes to obesity. This study reports trans-eQTLs can be used to identify tissue-specific gene regulatory networks and describes a workflow to achieve this purpose. The network identified in this study showed scale-free topology indicating the hub genes of a GRN could be targeted to prevent disease outcomes.

The paper presents the problem of damage detection in steel girders. Static displacements at the selected point of the structure play the role of measured variables. Structural response signal decomposition is performed according to the Mallat pyramid algorithm, which is used to perform the discrete wavelet transform (DWT). This procedure allows us to quite well determine the location of structural damage. The geometry and the placement of any defective part of the structure may have a random character. It can be assumed that the random processes occurring in the broadly understood structure mechanics are Gaussian in nature. The first four probabilistic moments are estimated using three approaches independent: semi-analytical (SAM), perturbative (SPT), and Monte-Carlo simulations (MCS). The semi-analytical random approach seems to be the most optimal due to the necessary computation time. The incorporation of the mathematical stochastic apparatus into the classical (deterministic) analysis of the statics of the structure makes it possible to estimate the reliability measures of the analyzed girder.

Estimating parameters for multiple datasets can be time consuming, especially when the number of datasets is large. One solution is to sample from multiple datasets simultaneously using Bayesian methods such as adaptive multiple importance sampling (AMIS). Here we use the AMIS approach to fit a von Misses distribution to multiple datasets for wind trajectories derived from a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model driven from a 3D meteorological data. The primary objective is to characterise the uncertainties in wind trajectories in a form that can be used as inputs for predictive models of wind-dispersed insect pests and pathogens of agricultural crops for use in evaluating risk and in planning mitigation actions. Our results show that AMIS can significantly improve the efficiency of parameter inference for multiple datasets.

This paper focuses on a joint model to analyse longitudinal proportion and survival data. After transforming the longitudinal proportional data by a logit function, we adopt a partially linear mixed-effect model for it, in which nonlinear function of time is fitted via using B-splines technique and a centered Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (CDPMM) is specified for a general distribution of random effects. The survival data is assumed to a Cox proportional hazard model, the sharing random effects joint model is developed for the two types of data. Combining the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, we propose a Bayesian Lasso (BLasso) method to simultaneously estimate unknown parameters and select important covariates. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the finite sample performance of the proposed methods. An example from the MA.5 research experiment is used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

This study explores fault-tolerant consensus in leader-following heterogeneous multi-agent systems, focusing on actuator failures in uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) and uncrewed ground vehicles (UGVs). An optimization-based fault-tolerant consensus algorithm is proposed. The algorithm utilizes the Euler-Lagrange formula to ensure system consistency under actuator failures, with the Lyapunov stability theory proving the asymptotic stability of the consistency error. The algorithm is applied to heterogeneous multi-agent systems of UAVs and UGVs to derive optimal fault-tolerant consensus control laws for each vehicle type. Simulation experiments give evidence for the feasibility of the proposed control strategy.

A new model for international bed numbers is applied to local area populations for English Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) where the Age Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR) is used as a measure of population health and hence for total occupied hospital bed demand (elective plus emergency admission types, including acute, rehabilitation, mental health, and maternity), rather than simple bed availability. A 100-unit increase in ASMR (European Standard population) leads to a 15.3 – 30.7 (feasible range) unit increase in occupied beds per 1,000 deaths. ASMR shows why the Australian states of the Northern Territory and Tasmania have an intrinsic higher bed demand than the other states – although in both cases the bed planning methodologies failed to indicate this need and both states show a large bed deficit. Due to the high volatility in bed demand the average bed demand for 2019 was determined by a linear trend using data for 2014/15 to 2019/20 — as the pre-COVID-19 baseline. The slope of the relationship between occupied beds per 1,000 deaths and deaths per 1,000 population shows a power law function. As is to be expected there is scatter around the trend line which will partly arise from uncertainty in the expected occupied beds in 2019, fluctuations in both ASMR and deaths per 1,000 population from one year to another, changes in the number of persons on the elective, outpatient and diagnostic waiting lists, and local area variation in births and consequently upon maternity, neonatal and pediatric bed demand. Additional variation in bed demand will arise from differences in the level of funding for social care, especially elderly care, and to a lesser extent upon patients using private health care, and charitable hospices for palliative care. However, after including the change in bed demand arising from ASMR the model is sufficiently accurate to identify gross differences in bed demand as a prelude to further investigation. The model requires further extension to cover specialty-level demand, and perhaps segregation between elective and emergency types of inpatient demand. A method for benchmarking the whole hospital’s average bed occupancy is given which enables them to run at optimum efficiency and safety. Using this method English hospitals can be shown to operate at highly disruptive and unsafe levels of bed occupancy leading to deleterious ‘turn-away’. Turn-away implies bed unavailability for the next arriving patient. The problems associated with crafting effective bed planning are illustrated using the English NHS as an example.

The accurate detection of clouds is an important first-step in the processing of remotely sensed satellite data analyses and subsequent cloud model predictions. While initial cloud retrieval technology began with the exploitation of one or two bands of satellite imagery, it has accelerated rapidly in recent years as sensor and retrieval technology have exploded, creating a new era in space exploration. Additionally, initial emphasis in satellite retrieval technology focused on cloud detection for cloud forecast models, more recently cloud screening in satellite acquired data is playing an increasingly critical role in the investigation of cloud free data for the retrieval of soil moisture, vegetation cover, ocean colour concentration and sea surface temperatures, as well as environmental monitoring of a host of products, e.g. atmospheric aerosol data, to study the Earth’s atmospheric and climatic systems. With about 60% of the Earth covered by clouds, on average, it is necessary to both accurately detect clouds in remote sensing data to screen cloud contaminate data in remote sensing analyses. In this paper, the evolution of cloud detection technology is highlighted with advancement in sensor hardware technology and possible AI algorithmic advances. Additionally, a discussion is presented on methods to obtain the cloud truth data needed to determine the accuracy of these cloud detection approaches.

The paper delves into the critical issue of damage detection within the guy cable of a truss steel mast, a pivotal component in structural integrity. It introduces a model wherein damage manifests as a localized cross-section reduction in a single element of the cable. Employing Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), a pioneering methodology, the study scrutinizes the behavior of the affected elements through static structural analyses. Signal decomposition via the Mallat pyramid algorithm facilitates comprehensive examination. Static displacements at the connection point between the cable and the truss mast serve as the measured variables. Through systematic investigation, the paper evaluates the impact of damage size and location, external loading force, and cable tension force on the efficacy of the proposed approach. Utilizing data derived from Finite Element Method (FEM) computations for wavelet analysis the authors substantiate the findings with numerical examples, thus offering valuable insights into damage detection strategies for structural health monitoring and engineering applications.

Objective. To test the hypothesis that a session of unilateral tSMS over the dominant primary motor cortex (M1) in healthy subjects produces a transient decrease in manual dexterity. Methods. A triple-blinded randomized control trial was conducted in 40 healthy participants who were allocated to real- or sham-tSMS group. Each participant underwent one session of tSMS and were assessed before, immediately after, 15 minutes, and 40 minutes after stimulation. Outcome measures were Finger Tapping Test (FTT), 5-seconds FTT, nine Hole Peg Test, and the hand grip assessment. Results: Significant differences were found between groups 15 minutes after stimulation in favor of the tSMS group in the FTT (2.2 ± 0.99; CI= .18-4.22; d= .84p=.034), and 5-second FTT (4.2 ± 1.98; CI= .199-8.2, d= .68; p=.04). In the intragroup analysis, a significantly lower number of taps 15 minutes after stimulation was observed in sham group (3.3 ± 1.01; CI= .47-6.13; d= .42; p=.015), but not in the real stimulation group. Conclusion: A unilateral session of tSMS in the M1 of the dominant hemisphere of healthy individuals does not reduce manual dexterity or grip strength. This technique could have benefits on the motor performance of the arm contralateral to the stimulated motor cortex

Lysine is the first limiting essential amino acid in rice because it is present in the lowest quantity compared to all the other amino acids. Amino acids are the building block of proteins and play an essential role in maintaining the human body’s healthy functioning. Rice is a staple food for large proportion of the global population, thus increasing the lysine content in rice will improve its nutritional value. In this paper, we studied the lysine biosynthesis pathway in rice (Oryza Sativa) to identify the regulators of the lysine reporter gene LYSA (LOC_Os02g24354). Genetically intervening at the regulators has the potential to increase the overall lysine content in rice. We modeled the lysine biosynthesis pathway in rice seedlings under normal and saline (NaCl) stress conditions using Bayesian networks. We estimated the model parameters using experimental data and identified the gene DAPF(LOC_Os12g37960) as a positive regulator of the lysine reporter gene LYSA under both normal and saline stress conditions. Based on this analysis, we conclude that the gene DAPF is a potent candidate for genetic intervention. Upregulating DAPF using methods such as CRISPR-Cas9 has the potential to upregulate the lysine reporter gene LYSA and increase the overall lysine content in rice.

The Solvency II regulatory framework specifies procedures and parameters for determining solvency capital requirements (SCRs) for insurance companies. The proposed standard SCR calculations involve two steps. The Value–at–Risk (VaR) of each risk driver is measured and, in a second step, all components are aggregated to the company’s overall SCR, using the Standard Formula. This formula has two inputs: the VaRs of the individual risk drivers and their correlations. The appropriate calibration of these input parameters has been the purpose of various Quantitative Impact Studies that have been conducted during recent years. This paper demonstrates that the parameter calibration for the equity–risk module—overall, with about 25%, the most significant risk component—is seriously flawed, giving rise to spurious and highly erratic parameter values. As a consequence, an implementation of the Standard Formula with the currently proposed calibration settings for equity–risk is likely to produce inaccurate, biased and, over time, highly erratic capital requirements.

Flood frequency analysis at large scales, essential for the development of flood risk maps, is hindered by the uncertainty in outputs of process-based hydrological models and the scarcity of gauge flow data. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) based on the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for regional flood frequency analysis at high resolution across North America. Our model leverages annual maximum flow data from ≈20000 gauged stations and a dataset of 130 static catchment-specific covariates to predict extreme flows at all catchments over the continent as well as their associated statistical uncertainty. Additionally, a modification is made to the data layer of the BHM to include daily gauge discharge data when available, which improves the precision of the discharge level estimates. We validated the model using a hold-out approach and found that its predictive power is very good for the GEV distribution location and scale parameters and improveable for the shape parameter, which is notoriously hard to estimate. The resulting discharge return levels yield satisfying agreement when compared with available design peak discharge from various government sources. Assessment of the covariates’ contributions to the model also informs on the most relevant underlying factors influencing flood-inducing peak flows. The key covariates in our model are temperature-related bioindicators, the catchment drainage area and geographical location.

In his best-selling book An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, W. Feller established a way of ending the St. Petersburg Paradox by the introduction of an entrance fee, and provided it for the case in which the game is played with a fair coin. A natural generalization of his method is to establish the entrance fee for the case in which the probability of head is θ (0 < θ < 1/2). The deduction of those fees is the main result of Section 2. We then propose a Bayesian approach to the problem. When the probability of head is θ (1/2 < θ < 1) the expected gain of the St. Petersburg Game is finite, therefore there is no paradox. However, if one takes θ as a random variable assuming values in (1/2,1) the paradox may hold, what is counter-intuitive. On Section 3 we determine a necessary and sufficient condition for the absence of paradox on the Bayesian approach and on Section 4 we establish the entrance fee for the case in which θ is uniformly distributed in (1/2,1), for in this case there is paradox.

The general objective of the study is to analyze food insecurity determinants mainly related to food price at macro level. The study used a time series data from the year 1988 quarter one to 2018 quarter four. Our empirical finding on the macroeconomic model show the short term consequence of food price change is positive with food security (negative with food insecurity). The long term consequence of food price change is, however, negative with food security (positive with food insecurity) at macro level. From the variance decomposition, it can be learned that the speed by which the undernourished people decrease in number in the short term because of the inflation happened is higher than the speed by which the number of undernourished people increase in the long run. At macro level, concern should be made to the supply side for food security improvement.

To decrease oral pathogens and increase the number of beneficial bacteria, probiotics and bioactive compounds made via microbial bioconversion are recently used. In addition, the interest regarding probiotics-mediated bioconversion with popular medicinal plants is increasing. These compounds produced during the process exhibit synergistic effect and enhance a variety of biological activities including pathogen inhibition in host. Therefore, we developed bioconverted milk with high inhibitory activity against oral pathogens and α-glucosidase. Lactiplantibacillus plantarum SMFM2016-RK was chosen as the probiotic due to its beneficial characteristics such as high acid and bile tolerance, antioxidant activity, and α-glucosidase inhibition. Based on the minimal bactericidal concentration against three oral pathogens, the following appropriate concentrations of Artemisia herba-alba extract were added to milk: 5 mg/mL of A. herba-alba ethanol extract and 25 mg/mL of A. herba-alba hot-water extract. Four bioconverted milks (BM), BM1, BM2, BM3, and BM4, were produced by combining L. plantarum SMFM2016-RK alone, L. plantarum SMFM2016-RK and ethanol extract, L. plantarum SMFM2016-RK and hot-water extract, and L. plantarum SMFM2016-RK with both extracts. As a result of antimicrobial activity, BM3 inhibited the growth of Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans and Porphyromonas gingivalis the most, and BM4 suppressed the growth of Fusobacterium nucleatum the most. In addition, bioconverted milk containing A. herba-alba (BM2, BM3, and BM4) inhibited α-glucosidase more effectively than BM1. In conclusion, A. herba-alba-added milk bioconverted by L. plantarum SMFM2016-RK displayed the growth inhibitory effect on oral pathogens and the α-glucosidase inhibitory activity, thus it necessitates to evaluate the effects on the alleviation of oral diseases and glycemic control through future animal experiments.

Alpha emitters like plutonium pose severe health risks when ingested, damaging DNA and potentially causing cancer. Traditional detection methods require proximity within millimeters of the contamination source, presenting safety risks and operational inefficiencies. Long-range detection through alpha radioluminescence (RL) offers a promising alternative. However, most of the previous experiments have been carried out under controlled conditions that preclude the overwhelming effect of ambient light. This study demonstrates successful detection of a 3 MBq alpha emitter in an open environment using a newly developed, lightweight compact alpha camera. This camera incorporates a deep-cooled CCD and a specially designed lens system with a low f-number to maximum the signal intensity. The lens was also designed to minimize blue shift effects of filters. Nighttime imaging was achieved with a dual-filter system using a sandwich filters assembly centered at 337 nm and 343 nm for capturing alpha RL and subtracting background light, respectively. At night, the alpha source was detected from 1 meter away within one minute. The system was also evaluated under simulated urban lighting conditions. For daytime imaging, a stack of tilted 276 nm short pass filters minimized sunlight interference, enabling clear detection of the alpha source at 70 cm within 10 minutes under indirect sunlight. This research not only underscores the viability of long-range optical detection of alpha emitters for environmental monitoring and scientific research but also highlights its ability to enhance nuclear safety and public health in real-world settings.

This study analyses regional development in one of the poorest provinces in China, Guizhou Province, between 2000 and 2012 using a multiscale and multi-mechanism framework. In general, regional inequality has been declining since 2000. In addition, economic development in Guizhou Province presented spatial agglomeration and club convergence, which shows how the development pattern of one core area, two-wing areas and a contiguous area at the edge of the province have been developed between 2006 and 2012. Multilevel regression analysis revealed that industrialization and investment level were the primary driving forces of regional economic disparity in Guizhou Province. The influences of marketization and decentralization on regional economic disparity were relatively weak. Investment level reinforced regional economic disparity and the development of core-periphery structure in the province. However, investment level actually weakened the regional economic disparity in Guizhou Province when the variable of time was considered. In addition, both the topography and urban–rural differentiation were the two main reasons for forming a core-periphery structure in Guizhou Province.

Semi-continuous data are very common in the social science and economics. In this paper, a Bayesian variable selection procedure is developed to assess the influence of exogenous factors including observed and unobserved on the semi-continuous data. Our formulation is based on the two-part latent variable model with polytomous response. We consider two schemes for the penalties of regression coefficients and factor loadings: the Bayesian spike and slab bimodal prior and the Bayesian lasso prior. Within the Bayesian framework, we implement Markov Chains Monte Carlo sampling method to conduct posterior inference. To facilitate posterior sampling, we recast the logistic model in part one as the norm-like mixture model. Gibbs sampler is designed to draw observations from the posterior. Our empirical results show that with suitable hyper-parameters, the spike and slab bimodal method slightly outperforms the Bayesian lasso in the current analysis. Finally, a real example related to the China household finance survey is analyzed to illustrate the application of the methodology.. .

Densely urbanized areas, with a low percentage of green vegetation, are highly exposed to Heat Waves (HW) which nowadays are increasing in terms of frequency and intensity also in the middle-latitude regions, due to ongoing Climate Change (CC). Their negative effects may combine with those of the UHI (Urban Heat Island), a local phenomenon where air temperatures in the compact built up cores of towns increase more than those in the surrounding rural areas, with significant impact on the quality of urban environment, on citizens health and energy consumption and transport, as it has occurred in the summer of 2003 on France and Italian central-northern areas. In this context this work aims at designing and developing a methodology based on aero-spatial remote sensing (EO) at medium-high resolution and most recent GIS techniques, for the extensive characterization of the urban fabric response to these climatic impacts related to the temperature within the general framework of supporting local and national strategies and policies of adaptation to CC. Due to its extension and variety of built-up typologies, the municipality of Rome was selected as test area for the methodology development and validation. First of all, we started by operating through photointerpretation of cartography at detailed scale (CTR 1: 5000) on a reference area consisting of a transect of about 5x20 km, extending from the downtown to the suburbs and including all the built-up classes of interest. The reference built-up vulnerability classes found inside the transect were then exploited as training areas to classify the entire territory of Rome municipality. To this end, the satellite EO HR (High Resolution) multispectral data, provided by the Landsat sensors were used within a on purpose developed "supervised" classification procedure, based on data mining and “object-classification” techniques. The classification results were then exploited for implementing a calibration method, based on a typical UHI temperature distribution, derived from MODIS satellite sensor LST (Land Surface Temperature) data of the summer 2003, to obtain an analytical expression of the vulnerability model, previously introduced on a semi-empirical basis.

This paper presents the five-parameter Exponentiated Weibull Weibull (EWW) distribution with Weibull base failure rate parameterization, developed to model the dropout times of students in an online class module. Parameters of the model were estimated using both Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian estimation procedures to determine the most effective estimation method. Simulation results indicate that, across various hazard types and censoring levels, Bayesian estimates are more accurate and precise than Maximum Likelihood estimates. Real-life data analysis of online students module presentation supports these findings, showing significantly lower standard deviations for Bayesian estimates compared to Maximum Likelihood estimates, highlighting the efficiency of Bayesian estimation for the EWW distribution. Additionally, a comparative goodness-of-fit analysis demonstrated that the EWW distribution better fits the student dropout times dataset than Weibull Weibull (WW), Weibull Exponential (WE), and Exponential Weibull (EW) distributions. The median dropout time estimated using the EWW distribution is 24 days, suggesting that instructors should closely monitor student attendance around this period.

The challenge of missing data in scientific research prompts researchers to decide between imputing incomplete data or discarding observations, where discarding can lead to information loss. Various methods exist, from simple deletion to sophisticated approaches like Multiple Imputation (MI). However, these methods often fall short with high-dimensional datasets. Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) and Random Forest (RF) proximity imputation offer promising alternatives. Therefore, in this paper, we propose integrating MICE with Bayesian random forest (BRF) to enhance imputation accuracy and predictive power, particularly in high-dimensional analyses. Our approach combines MICE’s efficiency with BRF’s robustness, offering a comprehensive solution to missing data challenges. By way of example, we provide empirical evaluations to validate its effectiveness using synthetic data of various missing data scenarios. The results from the simulations showed that the combination of BRF and MICE offered a promising strategy for high-dimensional analysis in the presence of missing data.

Chronic non-cancer pain is a highly debilitating condition affecting approximately 20% of the global population. Chronic pain may lead to significant physical disability, emotional distress, social isolation and financial burden. Whilst^. pharmacological therapies remain the cornerstone of pain management in non-cancerous chronic pain, factors including the current opioid epidemic have led to non-pharmacological techniques becoming a more attractive proposition. We explored the prevalence of medical device use and their treatment efficacy in non-cancer pain management. A systematic methodology was developed, peer reviewed and published in PROSPERO (CRD42021235384). Key words of medical device, pain management devices, chronic pain, lower back pain, back pain, leg pain and chronic pelvic pain using Science direct, PubMed, Web of Science, PROSPERO, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PorQuest and ClinicalTrials.gov. All clinical trials, epidemiology and mixed methods studies that reported the use of medical devices for non-cancer chronic pain management published between the 1^st of January 1990 and the 30^th of April 2022 were included. 13 studies were included in systematic review, of these 6 were used in the meta-analysis with 173 participants. Our meta-analysis for pain reduction in each study showed that transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation combined with instrument-assisted soft tissue mobilization treatment and pulsed electromagnetic therapy produced significant treatment on chronic lower back pain patients. Pooled evidence revealed the use of medical device related interventions resulted in 0.7 degree of pain reduction under a 0-10 scale. Significant improvement in disability scores, with a 7.44 degree reduction in disability level compared to a placebo using a 50 score range was also seen. The application of medical devices in patients with chronic pain has gained popularity due to increasingly cost effective techniques, minimally invasiveness and greater awareness of risks associated with pharmacological management. Our analysis has shown that the optimal use of medical devices in a sustainable manner requires further extensive research, needing larger cohort studies with greater gender parity, in a more diverse range of geographical locations.

Bayesian analysis for masked data under competing risk frameworks is studied for the purpose of assessing the impact of covariates on the hazard functions when the failure time is exactly observed for some subjects but only known to lie in an interval of time for the remaining subjects. Such data, known as partly interval-censored data, usually result from periodic inspection. Dirichlet and Gamma processes are assumed as priors for masking probabilities and baseline hazards. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is employed for the implementation of the Bayesian approach. The effectiveness of the proposed model is tested through numerical studies, including simulated and real data sets.

The pollution of the bays in Abidjan is a major concern for the Ivorian policy makers. In fact, the pollution of the bays induce high costs to the society while impacting population health dramatically. As a result, pollution reduction management of production activities has been undertaken in the Cocody Bay area. To our knowledge, no study has yet proposed a model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these pollution management strategies. A cost-effectiveness model, based on Monte Carlo simulation, was developed to assess the economic and environmental impacts of various scenarios characterized by a set of production practices, both in the short term and in the long term. The authors discuss the steps and input parameters of the model presented. The proposed model may serve as the basis for identifying an optimal production scenario defined as the scenario with the best incremental cost-effectiveness ratio considering a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold. The WTP, to be estimated based on the gross domestic product of Côte d’Ivoire, represents the opportunity costs associated with selecting the optimal scenario. The current framework can also be applied to other settings facing similar challenge.

Limited accessibility in some parts of Indonesia causes difficulties in logistic distribution, especially for emergency and medical supplies. Emerging drone cargo technology is a potential solution to improve logistic distribution in those areas. However, implementing drone cargo technology involves unknown risks, both in technical and non-technical aspects. Since data on drone operations in Indonesia is limited, a new method is explored to build a Bayesian Network (BN) model for risk analysis of drone crashes in Indonesia’s outermost and underdeveloped areas. The method optimizes the modelling process, in which significant risk factors are selected based on three drone operator companies’ experiences, which include wind speed, rain intensity, and system component failure or malfunction. Real wind speed and rain probability data are then implemented in the model. The operator’s data shows that wind speed contributes to drone crashes, which can be appropriately modelled in the BN model. The model produced a probability of safe operation of 94.1%, comparable to the annual operator’s data. The result shows that most operations are safe, with a minimum case of crashing and no case of harming human life.

Fitting parameters on spline curves produces more parsimonious models, maintaining fit quality. Smoothing the splines reduces predictive variance. Individual splines are often fit by type of variable, e.g., in age-period-cohort models. Linear and cubic splines are most common. Several smoothing criteria have been used for parameter curves, with cubic splines fit by constraining the integral of splines’ squared-second derivatives popular recently. Constraining the sum of squared second differences for linear splines is analogous. Generally the degree of smoothing is selected using cross-validation. Known spline dummy-variable matrices allow regression estimation of splines, with smoothing done via constrained regression. Smoothing criteria based on sums of squares or absolute values of parameters, as in ridge regression or LASSO, improves predictive accuracy and produces splines similar to smoothing by second-derivative constraints. Variables with very low t-statistics represent points where curve-shapes barely change. Eliminating those variables leaves knots concentrated where spline shapes change. A Bayesian version of this puts shrinkage priors on spline parameters. This yields realistic joint parameter distributions, avoids problems associated with using cross-validation for parameter estimation, and readily expands to non-linear modeling, such as interactions among variable types. Regularized regression and Bayesian spline methods are compared for two example datasets.

In this paper, the transmutation operator method is used to construct an exact solution to the initial boundary value problem for the equation of multidimensional free transverse vibration of a thin elastic plate with a singular Bessel operator acting on geometric variables. We emphasize that multidimensional Erdélyi–Kober operators of fractional order have the property of a transmutation operator, allowing one to transform more complex multidimensional partial differential equations with singular coefficients acting over all variables into simpler ones. If formulas for solutions are known for a simple equation, then we also obtain representations for solutions to the first complex partial differential equation with singular coefficients. In particular, it is successfully applied to the singular differential equations, especially with Bessel-type operators. Using this operator, the considered problem is reduced to a similar problem without the Bessel operator. Based on the solution to the auxiliary problem, an exact solution to the original problem is constructed and analyzed.

ACL instability poses a significant challenge in traumatology and orthopedic medicine, often requiring accurate diagnosis for appropriate treatment. While the pivot-shift test offers a crucial means of assessment, its reliance on subjective interpretation underscores the need for supplementary imaging studies. This study aims to address this limitation by developing a Bayesian classification algorithm tailored for integration into a mobile application. Using the built-in inertial sensors of smartphones, this new approach aims to dynamically evaluate rotational stability during knee examinations. Orthopedic specialists conducted knee evaluations on 52 subjects, with subsequent analysis revealing interesting insights. Intraobserver and interobserver analyses, as measured by ICC, demonstrated strong agreement both in terms of timing between maneuvers (ICC = 0.94) and signal amplitude (ICC = 0.71-0.66). Notably, the Bayesian algorithm successfully classified 95% of joint hypermobility cases, with an additional 7 cases of hyperlaxity identified by the Pivot-Shift Meter (PSM). These findings highlight the practicality and effectiveness of implementing a Bayesian classification algorithm within a mobile application for assessing and categorizing signals captured by smartphone inertial sensors during the pivot-shift test.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) approaches that could learn from large data sources have been identified as useful tools to support clinicians in their decisional process; AI and ML implementations have had a rapid acceleration during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. However, many ML classifiers are “black box” to the final user, since their underlying reasoning process is often obscure. Additionally, the performance of such models suffer from poor generalization ability in presence of dataset shift. Here, we present a comparison between an explainable-by-design (“white box”) model (Bayesian Network (BN)) versus a black-box model (Random Forest), both studied with the aim to support clinicians of Policlinico San Matteo University Hospital in Pavia (Italy) during the triage of COVID-19 patients. Our aim is to evaluate whether the BN predictive performances are comparable with those of a widely used but less explainable ML model such as Random Forest and to test the generalization ability of the ML models across different waves of the pandemic.

This study presents the evaluation of an ion exchange resin-based installation designed for the recycling of engine coolants, specifically ethylene glycol (EG) and propylene glycol (PG). The recycling process aims to restore the coolant to meet the stringent ASTM standards for both new and recycled coolants. A combination of physical-chemical methods, gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS), and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) was employed to analyze and validate the purity and performance of the recycled product. The experimental setup included performance tests to assess the efficacy of the recycled coolants in comparison to new coolant standards. The results demonstrate that the recycled EG coolants exhibit comparable quality to new coolants, with all critical parameters falling within the acceptable ASTM limits. This indicates that the ion exchange resin method is a viable and efficient solution for the recycling of engine coolants, offering an environmentally friendly alternative to the disposal of used coolants while ensuring compliance with industry standards.

The production of lithium-ion battery cells is characterized by a high degree of complexit due to numerous cause-effect relationships between process characteristics. Knowledge about the multi-stage production is spread among several experts, rendering tasks such as failure analysis challenging. In this paper, a method is presented, which includes expert knowledge acquisition in production ramp-up by combining Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) with a Bayesian Network. We show the effectiveness of this holistic method by building up a large scale, cross-process Bayesian Failure Network in lithium-ion battery production. Using this model, we are able to conduct root cause analyses as well as analyses of failure propagation. The former support operators in identifying root causes once a cell possesses a specific failure by calculating most-probable explanations matched to the individual battery cell data. The latter enable us to analyze propagation of failures and deviations in the production chain and thus provide support for placement of quality gates, leading to a significant reduction in scrap rate. Moreover, it gives an insight into which process steps are key drivers for which final product characteristics.

Effectively mapping and monitoring rubber plantation is still changing. Previous studies have explored the potential of phenology features for rubber plantation mapping through a pixel-based approach (pixel-based phenology approach). However, in fragmented mountainous Xishuangbanna, it could lead to noises and low accuracy of resultant maps. In this study, we investigated the capability of an integrated approach by combining phenology information with an object-based approach (object-based phenology approach) to map rubber plantations in Xishuangbanna. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data were firstly used to acquire the temporal profile and phenological features of rubber plantations and natural forests, which delineates the time windows of defoliation and foliation phases. Landsat images were then used to extract a phenology algorithm comparing three different approaches: pixel-based phenology, object-based phenology, and extended object-based phenology to separate rubber plantations and natural forests. The results showed that the two object-based approaches achieved higher accuracy than the pixel-based approach, having overall accuracies of 96.4%, 97.4%, and 95.5%, respectively. This study proved the reliability of a phenology-based rubber mapping in fragmented landscapes with a distinct dry/cool season using Landsat images. This study indicated that the object-based phenology approaches can effectively improve the accuracy of the resultant maps in fragmented landscapes.

The studied solar pot is a recent invention, which gained a utility model protection in 2021 from the Hungarian Intellectual Property Office under patent number 5489. The device is made for environmentally friendly cooking or heating (by utilizing solar energy) of foods and liquids. Its structure is similar to a double pipe heat exchanger, it has an outer mantle and an inner cooking tank. The goals of the paper are proposing a new physically-based mathematical model describing the solar pot and carrying out computer experiments with it, assembling an experimental system of the pot connected with a solar collector and performing measurements on it. Based on the results, the solar pot can successfully be used for cooking or sterilizing foods or liquids during the studied time period, in Hungary.

The e-commerce sector is in a constant state of growth and evolution, particularly within its subdomain of online food delivery. As such, ensuring customer satisfaction is critical for companies working in this field. One way to achieve this is by providing accurate delivery time estimation. While companies can track couriers via GPS, they often lack real-time data on traffic and road conditions, complicating delivery time predictions. To address this, a range of statistical and machine learning techniques are being employed, including neural networks and specialized expert systems, with different degree of success. One issue with neural networks and machine learning models is their heavy dependence on vast, high quality data. To mitigate this issue we propose two Bayesian generalized linear models to predict time of the delivery. Utilizing a linear combination of predictor variables, we generate practical range of outputs with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling method. These models offer a balance of generality and adaptability, allowing for tuning with expert knowledge. They were compared with PSIS-LOO and WAIC criteria. Results show that both models accurately estimated delivery times from the dataset, while maintaining numerical stability. Model with more predictor variables proved to be more accurate.

In this paper we describe a method which combines sentiment analysis with machine learning techniques and/or multivariate statistical analysis. By applying this methodology it is possible to classify a collection of texts into two or more groups or clusters. On the basis of a number of previously defined clusters, the novelty of the outlined approach is the use of the sentiment analysis results as input to the machine learning model or multivariate statistical analysis. Once the classifier has been obtained, we can assign a given text into one of the pre-established clusters. The groups or clusters can represent different time periods, classes of texts transcribed from different conversations, etc. The method is illustrated through an example taken from one of the two studies in which we have applied this methodology. In one of the studies, the method was used to classify press news of a volcanic eruption, while in the other study it was used to classify the conversations recorded between a chatbot with different kinds of speakers (humans or chatbots). This last study was the seminal work in which we introduced this methodology.

Machine learning forks into three main branches such as supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and reinforcement learning where reinforcement learning is much potential to artificial intelligence (AI) applications because it solves real problems by progressive process in which possible solutions are improved and finetuned continuously. The progressive approach, which reflects ability of adaptation, is appropriate to the real world where most events occur and change continuously and unexpectedly. Moreover, data is getting too huge for supervised learning and unsupervised learning to draw valuable knowledge from such huge data at one time. Bayesian optimization (BO) models an optimization problem as a probabilistic form called surrogate model and then directly maximizes an acquisition function created from such surrogate model in order to maximize implicitly and indirectly the target function for finding out solution of the optimization problem. A popular surrogate model is Gaussian process regression model. The process of maximizing acquisition function is based on updating posterior probability of surrogate model repeatedly, which is improved after every iteration. Taking advantages of acquisition function or utility function is also common in decision theory but the semantic meaning behind BO is that BO solves problems by progressive and adaptive approach via updating surrogate model from a small piece of data at each time, according to ideology of reinforcement learning. Undoubtedly, BO is a reinforcement learning algorithm with many potential applications and thus it is surveyed in this research with attention to its mathematical ideas. Moreover, the solution of optimization problem is important to not only applied mathematics but also AI.

Bootstrap resampling techinques, introduced by Efron and Rubin, can be presented in a general Bayesian framework, approximating the statistical distribution of a statistical functional φ(F), where F is a random distribution function. Efron’s and Rubin’s bootstrap procedures can be extended introducing an informative prior through the Proper Bayesian bootstrap. In this paper different bootstrap techniques are used and compared in predictive classification and regression models based on ensemble approaches, i.e. bagging models involving decision trees. Proper Bayesian bootstrap, proposed by Muliere and Secchi, is used to sample the posterior distribution over trees, introducing prior distributions on the covariates and the target variable. The results obtained are compared with respect to other competitive procedures employing different bootstrap techniques. The empirical analysis reports the results obtained on simulated and real data.

Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) is increasingly used in predicting and mapping spatio-temporal data. However, studies that have fully evaluated its robustness empirically are rare. Therefore, this research examined empirically the effect of skewness, sample size and spatial dependency level using simulated data. We considered symmetric data, data positively skewed by 1, 3, 6 and 9, data with weak, moderate, and strong spatial dependency levels, and sample sizes from 100 to 500 at the interval length of 50. The results showed that the variation of sample sizes and spatial dependency levels do not affect the Mean Square Error (MSE) and bias of BME prediction. However, skewness affects the MSE of prediction but does not affect the bias. This result indicates that BME is robust to sample size and is unbiased. Despite the significant difference due to skewness, a graphical plot showed values of MSE close to zero, suggesting that BME can be considered robust to skewness.

Online food delivery services are rapidly growing in popularity, making customer satisfaction critical for company success in a competitive market. Accurate delivery time predictions are key to ensuring high customer satisfaction. While various methods for travel time estimation exist, effective data analysis and processing are often overlooked. This paper addresses this gap by leveraging spatial data analysis and preprocessing techniques to enhance the data quality used in Bayesian models for predicting food delivery times. We utilized the OSRM API to generate routes that accurately reflect real-world conditions. Next, we visualized these routes using various techniques to identify and examine suspicious results. Our analysis of route distribution identified two groups of outliers, leading us to establish an appropriate boundary for maximum route distance to be used in future Bayesian modelling. The spatial analysis revealed that these outliers were primarily deliveries to the outskirts or beyond the city limits. By refining the data quality through these methods, we aim to improve the accuracy of delivery time predictions, ultimately enhancing customer satisfaction.

The most frequent, noticeable, and frequent natural calamity in the karakoram region is landslides. Extreme landslides have occurred frequently along Karakoram highway, particularly during the monsoon, causing a major loss of life and property. Therefore, it was necessary to look for a solution to increase growth and vigilance in order to lessen losses related to landslides caused by natural disasters. By utilizing contemporary technologies, an early warning system might be developed. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are widely used nowadays across many industries. This paper's major goal is to provide new integrative models for assessing landslide susceptibility in a prone area of north of Pakistan. To do this, the training of an artificial neural network (ANN) is supervised using metaheuristic and Bayesian techniques: particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), Genetic algorithm (GA), Bayesian optimization Gaussian process (BO_GP), and Bayesian optimization Gaussian process (BO_TPE). 304 previous landslides and the eight most prevalent conditioning elements combine to form a geographical database. The models are hyper-parameter optimized, and the best ones are employed to generate the susceptibility maps. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUROC) accuracy index found demonstrated that the maps produced by both Bayesian and metaheuristic algorithms are highly accurate. The effectiveness and efficiency of applying artificial neural networks (ANNs) for landslide mapping, susceptibility analysis, and forecasting are studied in this research it’s observed from experimentation that the performance differences for GA, BO_GP, and PSO compared to BO_TPE are relatively small, ranging from 0.3166% to 1.8399%. This suggests that these techniques achieved comparable performance to BO_TPE in terms of AUC. However, it's important to note that the significance of these differences can vary depending on the specific context and requirements of the ML task. Additionally in this study, we explore eight feature selection algorithms to determine the geospatial variable importance for landslide susceptibility mapping along the KKH. The algorithms considered include Information Gain, Gain Ratio, OneR Classifier, Subset Evaluators, Principal Components, Relief Attribute Evaluator, Correlation, and Symmetrical Uncertainty. These algorithms enable us to evaluate the relevance and significance of different geospatial variables in predicting landslide susceptibility. By applying these feature selection algorithms, we aim to identify the most influential geospatial variables that contribute to landslide occurrences along the KKH. The algorithms encompass a diverse range of techniques, such as measuring entropy reduction, accounting for attribute bias, generating single rules, evaluating feature subsets, reducing dimensionality, and assessing correlation and information sharing. The findings of this study will provide valuable insights into the critical geospatial variables associated with landslide susceptibility along the KKH. These insights can aid in the development of effective landslide mitigation strategies, infrastructure planning, and targeted hazard management efforts. Additionally, the study contributes to the field of geospatial analysis by showcasing the applicability and effectiveness of various feature selection algorithms in the context of landslide susceptibility mapping.

Supplementation with 200% of the recommended daily dietary quantity of copper modified vascular contraction and relaxation through increased reactive oxygen species (ROS) and prostaglandin formation, which modified the antioxidant status of middle–aged rats. In this study, young (1 month old) male Wistar rats (n/group = 10) received a diet supplemented with 6.45 mg copper/kg (100%—Group A) for 8 weeks. The experimental group received 12.9 mg copper/kg of diet (200%—Group B). Experimental supplementation with 200% copper increased the copper concentration in the blood, liver, and kidneys; increased the ROS concentration in the aortic rings; and enhanced the sensitivity of the aortic rings to acetylcholine. We observed increased participation of nitric oxide (NO) derived from inducible NO synthase (iNOS) in vascular contraction and a decreased net effect of vasodilator prostanoids derived from cyclooxygenase–2 (COX–2) in vascular relaxation. Supplementation with 200% copper was less significant than expected after previous studies conducted with middle–aged rats.

Aiming at the prediction of environmental vibrations induced by elevated high-speed railway, a machine-learning method is developed by combining random forest algorithm and Bayesian optimization, which using the dataset from on-site experiments . When it comes to achieving a rapid and effective prediction of environmental vibration, there is few research on com-parisons and verifications of different algorithms, and neither on parameter tuning and optimi-zation of machine learning algorithms. In this paper, a field experiment is firstly carried out to measure the ground vibrations caused by high-speed trains running on bridge, and then the en-vironmental vibration characteristics are analyzed in view of ground accelerations and weighted vibration levels. Subsequently, three machine-learning algorithms of linear regression, support vector machine and random forest are developed by using experimental database, and their prediction performance are discussed. Finally, two optimization models for the hyperparameter set of random forest algorithm are further compared. It turns out that the integrated random forest algorithm has higher accuracy in predicting environmental vibration than linear regression and support vector machine; the Bayesian optimization has excellent performance and high efficiency in achieving efficient and in-depth optimization of parameters, and can be combined with the RF machine learning algorithm to effectively predict the environmental vibrations induced by the high-speed railway.

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) stands as a pivotal technological stride toward a sustainable future, with the practice of injecting supercritical CO2 into subsurface formations having already been an established practice for enhanced oil recovery operations. The overarching objective of CCS is to protract the operational viability and sustainability of platforms and oilfields, thereby facilitating a seamless transition towards sustainable practices. This study introduces a comprehensive framework for optimizing well placements in CCS operations, employing a derivative-free method known as Bayesian optimization. The development plan is tailored for scenarios featuring aquifers devoid of flow boundaries, incorporating production wells tasked with controlling pressure buildup and injection wells dedicated to CO2 sequestration. Notably, the wells operate under group control, signifying predefined injection and production targets and constraints that must be adhered to throughout the project’s lifespan. As a result, the objective function remains invariant under specific permutations of the well locations. Our investigation delves into the efficacy of Bayesian optimization under the introduced permutation invariance. The results reveal that it demonstrates critical efficiency in handling the optimization task extremely fast. In essence, this study advocates for the efficacy of Bayesian optimization in the context of optimizing well placements for CCS operations, emphasizing its potential as a preferred methodology for enhancing sustainability in the energy sector.

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are causing significant damages to many nations. For mitigating its risk, Japan’s Prime Minister called on all elementary, junior high and high schools nationwide to close beginning March 1, 2020. However, its effectiveness in decreasing disease burden has not been investigated. Methods: We used daily data on the report of COVID-19 and coronavirus infection incidence in Japan until March 31, 2020. Time series analysis were conducted using Bayesian method. Local linear trend models with interventional effect were constructed for number of newly reported cases of COVID-19, including asymptomatic infections. We considered that the effects of intervention start to appear 9 days after the school closure; i.e., on March 9. Results: The intervention of school closure did not appear to decrease the incidence of coronavirus infection. If the effectiveness of school closure began on March 9, mean coefficient α for effectiveness of the measure was calculated to be 0.08 (95% credible interval -0.36 to 0.65), and the actual reported cases were more than predicted, yet with rather wide credible interval. Sensitivity analyses using different dates also showed similar results. Conclusions: School closure carried out in Japan did not show the effectiveness to mitigate the transmission of novel coronavirus infection.

Cortex Periplocae, as a traditional Chinese herbal medicine, has been widely used for autoimmune diseases, especially rheumatoid arthritis. Due to its potential pharmaceutical values, more studies about the biological activities of Cortex Periplocae have been conducted recently. Meanwhile, the adverse reaction of Cortex Periplocae is not a negligible problem in clinic. In this article, we reviewed a series of articles and summarized the recent studies of Cortex Periplocae in the areas of phytochemistry and pharmacology. More than 100 constituents have been isolated and identified from Cortex Periplocae, including steroids, cardiac glycosides, terpenoids, and fatty acid compounds. The crude extracts of Cortex Periplocae and its active compounds exhibit various biological activities, such as cardiotonic effect, anticancer action, and anti-inflammatory effect. This paper aims to provide an overall review on the bioactive ingredients, pharmacological effect, and toxicity of this plant. Furthermore, this review suggests investigating and developing new clinical usages according to the above pharmacological effects.

The progress in markerless technologies is bringing clinicians tools to rapidly evaluate tests such as Timed Up and Go (TUG) without compromising the time of the assessment, yet it raises questions about the potential trade-off in accuracy compared to traditional marker-based systems, suggesting that the precision of these evaluations is not yet conclusively established. The OpenCap system is an easy tool to process 3D kinematics with two iPhone cameras placed in front of the subject. Previous research has primarily focused on walking and movement towards the cameras with the subject facing the cameras (WF) and thus has been unable to disentangle the differences in the movement directions. We have compared the OpenCap system with a standard marker-based system for both walking directions. In OpenCap, we found significantly worse results capturing walking facing away from the cameras (RW). Compared to the marker-based system, our findings indicate troubles measuring kinematic parameters but provide good accuracy in measuring spatial-temporal parameters. These insights pave the way for refining markerless assessment technologies, potentially enhancing their utility in clinical settings.

The tobacco epidemic is one of the leading public health threats the world has ever faced and public health policy that seeks to limit the problem may not only have to target the price of tobacco but also the initiation stage in a smoker’s life – the adolescent stage. This research contributes to the health economics literature by using a Bayesian hierarchical logistic model, estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) methods to empirically identify what drives the intentions to quit smoking among adolescent smokers in Zambia. Results suggest that among the junior secondary school-going adolescent smokers in Zambia, about 63% have plans to quit smoking. We find socio-demographic characteristics and several tobacco-smoking-related factors as the main drivers of adolescent smokers’ plans to quit smoking. Most importantly, we provide insights that could be useful to help adolescent smokers realize their quitting plans.

In this paper study, we develop a Bayesian Network model selection principle that address addresses the incommensurability of network features obtained from incongruous datasets and overcomes performance irregularities of the Minimum Description Length model selection principle. This is achieved (i) by approaching model evaluation as a classification problem, (ii) by estimating the effect that sampling error has on the satisfiability of conditional independence criterion, as reflected by Mutual Information, and (iii) by utilizing this error estimate to penalize uncertainty in the Minimum Uncertainty (MU) model selection principle. We validate our findings numerically and demonstrate the performance advantages of the MU criterion. Finally, we illustrate the advantages of the new model evaluation framework on a tRNA structural biology example.

Classical methods for inverse problems are mainly based on regularization theory. In particular those which are based on optimization of a criterion with two parts: a data-model matching and a regularization term. Different choices for these two terms and great number of optimization algorithms have been proposed. When these two terms are distance or divergence measures, they can have a Bayesian Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) interpretation where these two terms correspond, respectively, to the likelihood and prior probability models.

The power function distribution is a flexible waiting time model that may provide better fit for some failure data. This paper presents the comparison of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates of two-parameter power function distribution. The Bayes estimates are obtained, using conjugate priors, under five loss functions consist of square error, precautionary, weighted, LINEX and DeGroot loss function. The Gibbs sampling algorithm is proposed to generate samples from posterior distributions and in result the Bayes estimates are computed. The comparison of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates are done through the root mean squared errors. One real-life data set is analyzed to illustrate the evaluation of proposed methods of estimation. Finally, results from the simulation are discussed to assess the performance behavior of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates.

We present a first formal analysis of specific and complete local integration. Complete local integration was previously proposed as a criterion for detecting entities or wholes in distributed dynamical systems. Such entities in turn were conceived to form the basis of a theory of emergence of agents within dynamical systems. Here, we give a more thorough account of the underlying formal measures. The main contribution is the disintegration theorem which reveals a special role of completely locally integrated patterns (what we call ι-entities) within the trajectories they occur in. Apart from proving this theorem we introduce the disintegration hierarchy and its refinement-free version as a way to structure the patterns in a trajectory. Furthermore we construct the least upper bound and provide a candidate for the greatest lower bound of specific local integration. Finally, we calculate the i-entities in small example systems as a first sanity check and find that ι-entities largely fulfil simple expectations.

Abstract: Peptide pools composed of short amino acid sequences have proven to be versatile tools in various research areas and clinical applications. They are powerful tools for epitope mapping, immunotherapy, and vaccine development. Their importance lies in their ability to map complex protein structures, enabling a comprehensive understanding of immune responses and facilitating the identification of potential therapeutic agents. The application of peptide pools also extends to the field of personalized medicine, offering tailored solutions for diseases such as cancer and infectious diseases. Peptide pools are complex mixtures of immunostimulatory antigens primarily intended for T-cell stimulation. They are commercially available in many different compositions and variants. However, unlike other reagents that consist of only one or a few compounds, peptide pools are highly complex products with limited stability. This makes their quality control a major challenge. Quantitative peptide analysis usually requires sophisticated methods, in most cases isotope-labeled standards and reference materials. None of these are routinely available for these products. Synthesis and purification of all labeled peptides might be required. Usually, this approach would be prohibitively laborious and expensive. Therefore, an approach is needed to provide a practical and feasible method for quality control of peptide pools. With insufficient quality control, the use of such products could lead to incorrect experimental results, which would worsen the well-known reproducibility crisis in the biomedical sciences. Here we propose the use of ultra-high performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) with two detectors, a standard UV detector (at 214 nm) for quantitative analysis and a high-resolution mass spectrometer (HRMS) for identity confirmation. To be cost-efficient and fast, quantification and identification are performed in one chromatographic run. An optimized protocol is shown, and different peak integration methods are compared and discussed. This work was performed using a peptide pool known as CEF, which consists of 32 peptides derived from cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and influenza virus, ranging from 8 to 12 amino acids in length.

(1) Background: Since microplastics in the aquatic environment are difficult to prevent and can cause adverse physiological and biochemical reactions to various organisms, we aimed to analyze the effectiveness of an eco-friendly removal method using aquatic plants with high ornamental value and excellent water purification ability. (2) Methods: Iris pseudacorus and Lythrum anceps were planted in tap water contaminated with microplastics to analyze the removal rate and root adsorption of microplastics. (3) Results: The amount of microplastics in the planting boxes of Iris pseudacorus and Lythrum anceps was significantly reduced, and the adsorption of microplastics on the roots was confirmed. (4) Conclusions: It was found that the removal of microplastics in water by aquatic plants is effective and that microplastic pollution does not significantly affect plant growth. However, the removal of microplastics by adsorption on plant roots may be affected by various environmental factors, so it is necessary to consider various limitations.

In this paper, we focus on variational Bayesian learning deterministic optimization methods for inference in biparametric exponential models where the parameters follow semiparametric regression structures. This combination of data models and algorithms contributes to solving real-world problems and reduces the computation time. This allows both the rapid exploration of many data models and the accurate estimation of the mean and variance functions through the connection between generalized linear models and graph theory. A simulation study was carried out to assess the performance of the deterministic approximation. Finally, herein, we present an application using macroeconomic data to emphasize the benefits of the proposed approach.

This study is framed on the Information Theory as a constructive criterion to generate probabilistic distributions –through the elaboration of Bayesian Networks- and to reduce the uncertainty in the occurrence and relationship between two key psychological variables associated with the sports’ performance: Self-Determined Motivation and Competitive Anxiety. We analyzed 674 universitary students/athletes who competed in the 2017 Universitary Games (Universiade) in México, from 44 universities, with an average age of 21 years old (SD = 2.07), and with a sportive experience of 8.61 years of average (SD = 5.15). Methods: Regarding the data analysis, first of all a CHAID algorithm was carried out for to know the independence links among variables, and then two Bayesian networks (BN) were elaborated. The validation of the BN revealed AUC values ranging from 0.5 to 0.92. Subsequently, various instantations were carried out with hypothetical values applied to the “bottom” variables. Results showed two probability trees that have Extrinisic Motivation and Amotivation at the top, while the anxiety/activation due to the worry for performance was at the bottom of probabilities. The instantiations carried out support the existence of these probabilistic relationships, demonstrating the little influence on the competition anxiety generated by the intrinsic motivation. In conclusion, the reduction of the uncertainty made up by the restricted BN may aloe to re-introduce Information Theory principles in psychosocial studies, allowing authors to obtain useful probabilities values upon target psychological variables related with sportive performance.

The aim of this work was to classify the business incubators in Spain according to the four phases of startups incubation. Taking into account that the graduation rate implies greater survival and business success of the incubated companies, they have been identified at each stage of the incubation (spread of entrepreneurship, pre-incubation, advanced incubation, and graduation). The activities that present higher impacts on the success of the incubated companies and the activities carried out by the incubator that have a greater relevance on the graduation of the companies have concretely been considered. Principal component (PC) cluster analysis have been applied. All the incubation variables were used simultaneously, reducing their number, and grouping them into factors, finally the cases were grouped according to these latent variables. Principal components analysis reduced dimensionality to 8 factors with a 74 % of explained variance. Factor 1 was positively related to pre-incubation variables, factor 2 was linked to training and collaboration variables within the entrepreneurship diffusion phase. Factor 3 called activity monitoring and control and was related to phase 3 or basic incubation variables. Clusters analysis facilitates the grouping of incubators into three clusters: Group 1 (16 % of the total), incubators with strong deficits in incubation phases 1, 2 and 3. They are small Business Incubators, often located in rural areas or cities and low graduation rate. Group 2 (30 %), business incubators with very high graduation rate, and strongly positive values in factor 1 and 2. Factor 3 although positive is susceptible to improvement. They are the largest incubators and usually located in industrial and technological parks. Group 3 (54 %) is the majority, with values close to cluster 2 and 3.

The increasing prevalence of species that are detrimental to biodiversity is a major concern, particularly for managers of National Parks. To develop effective programs for controlling weeds, it is essential to have a thorough understanding of the extent and severity of infestations, as well as the contributing factors such as temperature, rainfall, and disturbance. Predicting these factors on a regional scale requires models that can incorporate a wide range of variables in a quantifiable manner, while also assisting with on-ground operations. In this study, we present two Bayesian Network models specifically designed for six significant weed species found along the southern coast of Australia. Our models are based on empirical data collected during a coastal weed survey conducted in 2015 and repeated in 2016. We applied these models to the coastal national parks in the isolated and pristine East Gippsland region. Importantly, the prediction models were developed at two different spatial scales that directly corresponded to the scale of the observations. Our findings indicate that coastal habitats, with their vulnerable environments and prevalence of open dune systems, are particularly susceptible to weed infestations. Moreover, adjacent regions also have the potential for colonization if these infestations are not effectively controlled. Climate-related factors play a role in moderating the potential for colonization, which is a significant concern for weed control efforts in the context of global climate change.

We propose a novel adaptive importance sampling scheme for Bayesian inversion problems where the inference of the variables of interest and the power of the data noise is split. More specifically, we consider a Bayesian analysis for the variables of interest (i.e., the parameters of the model to invert), whereas we employ a maximum likelihood approach for the estimation of the noise power. The whole technique is implemented by means of an iterative procedure, alternating sampling and optimization steps. Moreover, the noise power is also used as a tempered parameter for the posterior distribution of the the variables of interest. Therefore, a sequence of tempered posterior densities is generated, where the tempered parameter is automatically selected according to the actual estimation of the noise power. A complete Bayesian study over the model parameters and the scale parameter can be also performed. Numerical experiments show the benefits of the proposed approach.

This paper considers estimating the ratio of two distributions with different parameters and common supports. We consider a Bayesian approach based on the Log--Huber loss function which is resistant to outliers and useful to find robust M-estimators. We propose two different types of Bayesian density ratio estimators and compare their performance in terms of Bayesian risk function with themselves as well as the usual plug-in density ratio estimators. Some applications such as classification and divergence function estimation are addressed.

Technology development changes society and society demands new and innovative technology development. We analyze technology to understand society and technology itself. Many researches have been introduced in various fields. Most of them were about patent analysis. This is because detailed and accurate results of research and development are patented. In this paper, we study on new patent analysis method based on count data model and Bayesian regression analysis. Using count data model, we analyze the technological keywords extracted from the collected patent documents. We use the posterior distribution of Bayesian statistics to reflect the experience and knowledge of the relevant technological experts in the analysis model. Moreover, we apply the proposed model to finding sustainable technologies. Finding and developing sustainable technologies is an important activity for companies and research institutes to maintain their technological competitiveness. To illustrate how our modeling could be applied to real domain, we carry out a case study using the patent documents related to artificial intelligence.

This paper formulates the classic Monty Hall problem as a Bayesian game. Allowing Monty a small amount of freedom in his decisions facilitates a variety of solutions. The solution concept used is the Bayes Nash Equilibrium (BNE), and the set of BNE relies on Monty's motives and incentives. We endow Monty and the contestant with common prior probabilities (p) about the motives of Monty, and show that under certain conditions on p, the unique equilibrium is one where the contestant is indifferent between switching and not switching. This coincides and agrees with the typical responses and explanations by experimental subjects. Finally, we show that our formulation can explain the experimental results in Page (1998) [12]; that more people gradually choose switch as the number of doors in the problem increases.

Categorical variables are common in spatial data analysis. Traditional analytical methods for deriving probabilities of class occurrence, such as kriging-family algorithms, have been hindered by the discrete characteristics of categorical fields. This study introduces the theoretical backgrounds of linear Bayesian updating (LBU) approach for spatial classification through expert system. Transition probabilities are interpreted as expert opinions for updating the prior marginal probabilities of categorical response variables. The main objective of this paper is to present the solid theoretical foundations of LBU and provide a categorical random field prediction method which yields relatively higher classification accuracy compared with conventional Markov chain random field (MCRF) approach. A real-world case study has also been carried out to demonstrate the superiority of our method. Since the LBU idea is originated from aggregating expert opinions and not restricted to conditional independent assumption (CIA), it may prove to be reasonably adequate for analyzing complex geospatial data sets, like remote sensing images or area-class maps.

A method based on ultra performance liquid chromatography with diode array detector (UPLC-DAD) was developed for quantitative analysis of five active compounds and chemical fingerprint analysis of Rosa rugosa. Ten batches of Rosa rugosa collected from different plantations in the Xinjiang region of China were used to establish the fingerprint. The feasibility and advantages of the used UPLC fingerprint were verified for its similarity evaluation by systematically comparing chromatograms with professional analytical software recommended by State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA) of China. In quantitative analysis, the five compounds showed good regression (R²=0.999 5) within the test ranges and the recovery of the method was in the range of 94.2–103.8%. The similarities of the fingerprints of 10 batches of the samples were more than 0.981. The developed UPLC fingerprint method is simple, reliable and validated for the quality control and identification of Rosa rugosa. Additionally, simultaneous quantification of five major bioactive ingredients in the Rosa rugosa samples was conducted to interpret the consistency of the quality test. The results indicated that the UPLC fingerprint as a characteristic distinguishing method combining similarity evaluation and quantification analysis, can be successfully used to assess the quality and to identify the authenticity of Rosa rugosa.

Staphylococcus aureus and coagulase-negative staphylococci account for about 80% of infections associated with medical devices and are associated with increased virulence due to their ability to form biofilm. In this study, we aimed to construct a comprehensive reference map followed by significant pathway analysis in the proteome of S. aureus biofilm grown for 3-days as compared with 24 h planktonic using a high-resolution TMT based MS. We identified proteins associated with secondary metabolites, ABC transporters, biosynthesis of amino acids, response to stress, and amino sugar and nucleotide sugar metabolism were significantly upregulated in the 3-day biofilm. In contrast, proteins associated with virulence factors, microbial metabolism in diverse environments, translation, and energy metabolism were significantly downregulated. GO functional annotation indicated that more proteins are involved in metabolic processes, catalytic activity, and binding in biofilm, respectively. Among the significantly dysregulated proteins, hyaluronidase (hysA) in conjunction with chitinase may play a significant role in the elimination and/or prevention of biofilm development. This study advances the current S. aureus subproteomes, identified potential pathways significant to biofilm biology and helped to understand their potential role in S. aureus which may shed light on developing new therapeutic regimes including antibiofilm agents in the treatment of biofilm-infections related with implantable medical devices.

In this paper, under the symmetric entropy and the scale squared error loss functions, we consider the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and Bayesian estimation of the Shannon entropy and Rényi entropy of the two-parameter inverse Weibull distribution. In the ML estimation, the dichotomy is used to solve likelihood equation. In addition, the approximation confidence interval is given by the Delta method. Because the form of estimation results is more complex in the Bayesian estimation, the Lindley approximation method is used to achieve the numerical calculation. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations and a real data set are used to illustrate the results derived. By comparing the mean square error between the estimated value and the real value, it can be found that the performance of ML estimation of Shannon entropy is better than that of Bayesian estimation, and there is no significant difference between the performance of ML estimation of Rényi entropy and that of Bayesian estimation.

Bayesian nonlinear mixed effects models for data in the form of continuous, repeated measurements from a population, also known as Bayesian hierarchical nonlinear models, are a popular platform for analysis when interest focuses on individual specific characteristics and relevant uncertainty quantification. Due to the limitation of computational power, this framework was relatively dormant until the late 1980s, but in recent years, the statistical research community saw vigorous development of new methodological and computational techniques for these models, the emergence of software, and wide application of the models in numerous industrial and academic fields. This article presents an overview of the formulation, interpretation, and implementation of Bayesian nonlinear mixed effects models and surveys recent advances and applications.

This study examines the causal relationships between interest rates in the Korean financial market using a vector error correction model (VECM) and a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network, a novel approach in this context, identifies two distinct transmission channels: one led by call rates (reflecting monetary policy) and another by 10-year Treasury bond yields (reflecting fiscal policy). While the call rate channel aligns with traditional views, affecting bank lending rates, corporate bond spreads, and commercial paper rates, the 10-year Treasury yield channel highlights a separate fiscal policy transmission mechanism, influencing commercial paper rates indirectly through 30-year Treasury yields and directly impacting merchant bank lending rates. This finding suggests that fiscal intervention could potentially interfere with monetary policy, emphasizing the need for coordinated macroeconomic policy measures. The study also emphasizes the role of 10-year Treasury bonds as a benchmark in the Korean bond market, reflecting medium- to long-term economic outlooks and serving as the underlying asset for various derivatives.

Oral squamous cell carcinoma often arises from an oral potentially malignant disorder called oral leukoplakia (OL). With this work we aimed to develop a novel data-driven predictive model based on gene expression profiles to distinguish OL patients who underwent malignant transformation from those who did not. We used the Tree Augmented Naïve (TAN) Bayes classifier to predict the posterior probability of having oral cancer given the data. 86 patients were included with a median follow-up of 7.11 years. Fifty-one patients (51/86; 59%) underwent malignant transformation. We found that 16 genes were predictors of oral cancer in patients with OL and these included SLC7A11, SPINK6, SERPINA12, VIT, ATP1B3, CST6, FLRT2, ELMOD1, AZGP1, RNASE13, DIO2, ECM1, CYP4F11, SYTL4, AKR1C1, and AKR1C3. In conclusion, we showed that Bayesian gene networks are a data-driven approach which could be used also in other predictor models in oncology.

The ability to smell is crucial for most species as it enables the detection of environmental threats like smoke, fosters social interactions, and contributes to the sensory evaluation of food and eating behavior. The high prevalence of smell disturbances throughout the life span calls for a continuous effort to improve tools for quick and reliable assessment of olfactory function. Odor-dispensing pens, called Sniffin' Sticks, are an established method to deliver olfactory stimuli during diagnostic evaluation. We tested the suitability of a Bayesian adaptive algorithm (QUEST) to estimate olfactory sensitivity using Sniffin' Sticks by comparing QUEST sensitivity thresholds with those obtained using a procedure based on an established standard staircase protocol. Thresholds were measured twice with both procedures in two sessions (Test and Retest). Overall, both procedures exhibited considerable overlap with QUEST displaying slightly higher test-retest correlations, less variability between measurements, and reduced testing duration. Notably, participants were more frequently presented with the highest concentration during the QUEST which may foster adaptation and habituation effects. We conclude that further research is required to better understand and optimize the procedure for assessment of olfactory performance.

We performed Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA) to suggest frontline treatments for patients with high PD-L1 expression (at least 50%). A total of 5,237 patients from 22 studies were included in this NMA. In terms of progression-free survival, immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) plus bevacizumab plus chemotherapy had the highest surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) value (98.1%), followed by ICI plus chemotherapy (82.9%). In terms of overall survival (OS), dual immunotherapy plus chemotherapy had the highest SUCRA value (79.1%), followed by ICI plus bevacizumab plus chemotherapy (73.4%). However, there was no significant difference of survival outcomes among treatment regimens combined with immunotherapy. Moreover, ICI plus chemotherapy failed to reveal a significant OS superiority to ICI monotherapy (hazard ratio = 0.978, 95% credible internal: 0.771-1.259). In conclusion, this NMA indicates that ICI plus chemotherapy with/without bevacizumab might to be the best options in terms of OS for NSCLC with high PD-L1 expression. Considering there was no significant difference of survival outcomes among treatment regimens incorporating immunotherapy and ICI plus chemotherapy failed to show significant survival benefits over ICI monotherapy, however, ICI monotherapy may be reasonable as first-line treatment for advanced NSCLC with high PD-L1 expression and no targetable aberrations.

While Europe was beginning to deal with the resurgence of COVID-19 due to the Delta variant, the European football championship took place, June 11 - July 11, 2021. We studied the inversion in the decrease/increase rate of new SARS-COV-2 infections in the countries of the tournament, investigating the hypothesis of an association. Using a Bayesian piecewise regression with a Poisson Generalized Linear Model, we looked for a changepoint in the timeseries of the new SARS-COV-2 cases of each country, expecting it to appear not later than two to three weeks after the date of their first match. The two slopes, before and after the changepoint, were used to discuss the reversal from a decreasing to an increasing rate of the infections. For 17 out of 22 countries (77%) the changepoint came on average 14.97 days after their first match [95% CI 12.29 to 17.47]. For all those 17 countries, the changepoint coincides with an inversion from a decreasing to an increasing rate of the infections. Before the changepoint, the new cases were decreasing, halving on average every 18.07 days [95% CI 11.81 to 29.42]. After the changepoint, the cases begin to increase, doubling every 29.10 days [95% CI 14.12 to 49.78]. This inversion in the SARS-COV-2 case rate, happened during the tournament, provides evidence in favor of a relationship

Rotorcrafts operate HUMS for fault diagnosis, but the capabilities of HUMS analysts are important due to the complex mechanical configuration of rotorcraft and the difficulty of analysis. Accordingly, an advanced algorithm is needed to identify faults, and flight data can be used to develop the algorithm. However, flight data contains abnormal or missing data due to problems such as sensor defects, which can be a major problem in algorithm development. Therefore, in this paper, we study a gap filling method using MLP to obtain normal data when there are problems such as abnormal or missing data in rotorcraft flight data. Existing methods typically fill the gap through interpolation or curve fitting using the before and after values of missing data. However, in this study, normal values were estimated using the values of other parameters at the moment of missing or abnormal data occurred. As a result of evaluating the performance of the trained MLP using normal data, it was confirmed that the output of the model well estimates the changing trend of the target. And when abnormal data was applied to the trained model, it was confirmed that point outliers were eliminated and appropriate values were found in the case of missing data.

The current study compared the goodness of fit and estimation precision of Bayes and maximum likelihood (ML) structural equation modeling across sample sizes. Data consisted of Markov Chain Monte Carlo generated samples of 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, 200, 250, 500, 750, 1000, and 1500 observations. The Bayes and ML methods were used to estimate a structural equation model with 40 parameters, including 12 continuous observed indicators, four latent variables, and three structural paths. Analyses were conducted with the Mplus 8.0 statistical software and were replicated 500 times with each of the 22 conditions (11 sample sizes x 2 estimation methods). Indices of model fit were the Bayes information criterion, the Tucker-Lewis index, the comparative fit index, the root mean square error of approximation, the posterior predictive p-value (for Bayes models), and the ꭓ2 test (for ML models). Results showed that as the sample size increased, both estimation methods exhibited improved model fit and enhanced estimation precision, and both methods performed well with samples of 200 or larger; however, ML demonstrated a marginally superior fit with smaller samples. These findings were not consistent with previous research and suggest that ML remains a better choice with continuous data and small samples.

Background: All Payer Claims Databases (APCD) are a rich source of health information, however, race and ethnicity (R&E) data are largely missing. Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) is a common R&E imputation method, yet, validation of BISG in APCDs is lacking. We used the BISG to impute missing R&E in the Oregon APCD. Methods: BISG imputed R&E for Asian Pacific Islanders (API), Blacks, Hispanics and Whites were contrasted to the gold standard (vital statistics) and sensitivity and specificity improvements were assessed. Logistic regression examined whether missing R&E was random across patient characteristics. Results: Among 85,857 individuals in the study, 32.1% (n=27,594) had missing R&E. Missing R&E was not randomly distributed. There were higher odds of missingness among males, Whites, those age 65 and older, and commercially insured individuals. Differences in the percent missing were also found by co-morbid conditions and mortality causes. Imputing the missing R&E with BISG method improved the sensitivity to identify White, Black, API, and Hispanics. Conclusions: APCDs can benefit from enhancing missing R&E with BISG imputation to perform more robust population-health level analyses and identify inequities according to R&E without losing power or dropping non-random records with missing R&E data.

In order to tackle the issue of severe rocking phenomenon under seismic conditions in structures equipped with steel spring isolation bearings, this paper investigates a novel type of anti-rocking bearing. Firstly, the structural configuration and working principle of the novel anti-rocking bearing are introduced, and a design method for bearing parameters is proposed. Secondly, a finite element analysis model is established using SAP2000 software to conduct nonlinear dynamic time history analysis under seismic loading. The analysis results show that the structural arrangement of the novel anti-rocking bearing reduces both the vertical displacement difference and the rocking angle of the isolation layer. The bearing exhibits a certain level of anti-rocking effect, but it may cause significant tensile forces in some bearings, necessitating the installation of anti-tensile reinforcement. The effectiveness of the anti-rocking effect improves as the stiffness of the steel tension rod in the bearing increases; however, it also leads to higher maximum tension in individual bearings as well as the total tension in all bearings. For structures equipped with the novel anti-rocking bearing, the acceleration amplifies under most cases, with amplification coefficients ranging from 0.82 to 1.55. The performance of the novel anti-rocking bearing varies significantly for different seismic waves. The stiffness of the steel tension rod should be determined considering the reference pressure of the bearing and the maximum designed tension of the bearing. Through the finite element simulation of the bearing, the mechanical properties of the bearing are basically the same as the theoretical analysis results. For the cylinder and the joint bearing, certain structural measures need to be taken to ensure its strength and stiffness.

The COVID-19 pandemics has had an unprecedented global impact, and the COVID-19 mass vaccination campaign has been commonly regarded as crucial to overcome the pandemics. Since all-cause mortality is the best way to measure the consequences of a health intervention, the present study was devised to analyze the all-cause mortality data of the United Kingdom (UK), which are made publicly available broken down by vaccination status. Data from April 2021 to May 2023 were retrospectively collected and analyzed according to age groups and vaccination status and the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) for all-cause mortality and for non-COVID-19 were calculated in comparison to the corresponding unvaccinated groups. Results show that, since an age group dependent date, the all-cause mortality SMRs were increasing in any of the age groups considered. Initially, the all-causes death SMRs were less than 1 for all age groups, but due to their growth, for the age groups 18-39, 80-89 and 90+ years by a certain date they exceeded the reference value. For the other age groups, as long as the trend is maintained, it is possible to predict the date in which the SMR would reach the value 1. Non-COVID-19 SMR values show a very similar trend. Their initial values much lower than 1 suggest the presence of significant biases in the ONS dataset which lead to an underestimation of the risks for those vaccinated, as it is not plausible that the vaccine protects from causes other than COVID-19. The finding that all-cause mortality SMRs in vaccinated in comparison to unvaccinated people increases over time requires careful examination to understand the underlying factors. Meanwhile, the other major countries should undertake a systematic collection of all-causes mortality broken down by vaccination status, and should be implemented a moratorium of the promotion of mass vaccination campaigns.

The textile sector is responsible for a number of environmental impacts. Due to the in-creasing quantities of textiles, their share is rising and a trend reversal from a linear to a circular textile chain is needed. This article presents the background, methodological approach and results of a participatory textile development model. In the commercial B2B sector, three textile prototypes were developed together with users and trialled over several months in three application areas. Textile development took into account the requirements of fibre regeneration in the product design and focused on innova-tive chemical recycling solutions. The three sustainably aligned textiles were subject-ed to spectroscopic and textile-technological tests. Screening life cycle assessments an-alysed their environmental profile and compared it with reference textiles that are used as standard. Overall, it is clear that the three textiles can match conventional ref-erence textiles in terms of quality and have considerable environmental benefits com-pared to the reference textiles. The user survey did identify concerns about a high arti-ficial fibre content, although a general rejection of recycled fibres was not observed. The results show that a transformation is possible, but must start with the fibre com-position; recycling, on the other hand, is of minor importance.

In the field of quality analysis of food and flavoring products, gas chromatography – quadrupole mass spectrometry – ion mobility spectrometry (GC-QMS-IMS) is a powerful technique for the simultaneous detection of volatile organic compounds (VOC) by both QMS and IMS. GC is an established technique for the separation of complex VOC-rich foods such as beverages, dairy and fruit products as well as flavorings in general. While the subsequent detection by IMS features soft ionization of fragile compounds (e.g., terpenes) with characteristic drift times, MS provides the analytes’ m/z-values for database substance identification. A limitation of the prominently used static headspace-based GC-QMS-IMS systems is the substantially higher sensitivity of IMS in comparison to full scan QMS, which results in the detection of relevant VOC only in IMS, but not in the QMS analyzer. The present study describes a new prototypic trapped-headspace (THS)-GC-QMS-IMS setup, with optimized active flow regulation, able to gain valuable data of both detectors. This ultimately allows the combination of a soft ionization with m/z values obtained from database-searchable electron ionization (EI) spectra and as such, offers a substantial advantage in fields of quality control. The new setup features aligned retention times for IMS and MS and sufficient signal intensities for QMS and IMS. The analytical setup was evaluated with a set of mango puree samples from various provenances and the data was evaluated by suitable machine learning approaches. The results demonstrate that THS-GC-QMS-IMS allows for the classification of mango purees from different cultivars and can be a promising alternative method for authenticity control of food, flavors, and beverages.

The organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) is a significant environmental threat, and an economic and social challenge to manage. As such, the efficient treatment of OFMSW is a significant key factor in achieving sustainable waste management. Decentralized Composting (DC) develops a new framework of waste management. The DC Analysis Model (DCAM), proposed in our previous study, provides a powerful tool for decision makers, based on the quantification of the DC project characteristics. In this paper, we focus on the qualitative analysis as a complementary tool to support decision making, in cases where quantitative analysis is unequivocal. The qualitative analysis identifies the main players in the field, the critical stakeholders and the potential conflicts between them. It also reveals the root problems and the core competencies for the project's implementation. DCAM qualitative analysis in Shefa-Amr (case study) indicates that unresolved root problems, such as the “lack of national regulation”, “clear ownership of the project” and “lack of ongoing budget” can result in an unsustainable composting system. Countering that, “the commitment of the municipality”, together with “economic viability” and securing “suitable areas for placing composters” are among the most important core competencies for the effective implementation of DC projects.

This paper presents a scenario evolution model for maritime accidents using Bayesian networks (BN) to predict the most likely causes of specific types of maritime incidents. The BN nodes encompass accident type, life loss contingency, accident severity, the quarter and time period of the accident, and the type and gross tonnage of the ships involved. We analyzed 5,660 global maritime accidents from 2005 to 2020. Using Netica software, we constructed a Tree Augmented Network (TAN) model, accounting for interdependencies among risk influencing factors. We validated the results through sensitivity analysis and historical accident records. Forward causal inference and reverse diagnostic inference were then performed on each node variable to investigate the accident development trend and evolution process under predetermined conditions. The findings indicate that the model can effectively predict the likelihood of various accident scenarios under specific conditions, as well as the extrapolation of accident consequences. Forward causal reasoning reveals that general cargo ships with a gross tonnage of 1-18,500 t are most likely to experience collision, grounding, and stranding accidents in the first quarter. Reverse diagnostic reasoning indicates that during early morning hours, container ships, general cargo ships, and chemical ships with a tonnage of 1-18,500 t are less likely to involve life loss in the event of collision accidents.

In many Bayesian computations, first, we obtain the expression of the joint distribution of all the unknown variables given the observed data. In general, this expression is not separable in those variables. Thus, obtaining their marginals for each variable and computing the expectations are difficult and costly. This problem becomes even more difficult in high dimensional quandaries, which is an important issue in inverse problems. We may then try to propose a surrogate expression with which we can do approximate computations. Often a separable expression approximation can be useful enough. The Variational Bayesian Approximation (VBA) is a technique that approximates the joint distribution $p$ with an easier, for example separable, one $q$ by minimizing Kullback–Leibler Divergence $KL(q|p)$. When $q$ is separable in all the variables, the approximation is also called Mean Field Approximation (MFA) and so $q$ is the product of the approximated marginals. A first standard and general algorithm is alternate optimization of $KL(q|p)$ with respect to $q_i$. A second general approach is its optimization in the Riemannian manifold. However, in this paper, for practical reasons, we consider the case where $p$ is in the exponential family and so is $q$. For this case, $KL(q|p)$ becomes a function of the parameters $\thetab$ of the exponential family. Then, we can use any other optimization algorithm to obtain those parameters. In this paper, we compare three optimization algorithms: standard alternate optimization, a gradient-based algorithm and a natural gradient algorithm and study their relative performances on three examples.

The adoption of Machine Learning (ML) for building emulators for complex physical processes has seen an exponential rise in the recent years. While neural networks are good function approximators, optimizing the hyper-parameters of the network to reach a global minimum is not trivial, and often needs human knowl- edge and expertise. In this light, automatic ML or autoML methods have gained large interest as they automate the process of network hyper-parameter tuning. In addition, Neural Architecture Search (NAS) has shown promising outcomes for improving model performance. While autoML methods have grown in popularity for image, text and other applications, their effectiveness for high-dimensional, complex scientific datasets remains to be investigated. In this work, a data driven emulator for turbulence closure terms in the context of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) models is trained using Artificial Neural Networks and an autoML frame- work based on Bayesian Optimization, incorporating priors to jointly optimize the hyper-parameters as well as conduct a full neural network architecture search to converge to a global minima, is proposed. Additionally, we compare the effect of using different network weight initializations and optimizers such as ADAM, SGDM and RMSProp, to explore the best performing setting. Weight and function space similarities during the optimization trajectory are investigated, and critical differences in the learning process evolution are noted and compared to theory. We observe ADAM optimizer and Glorot initialization consistently performs better, while RMSProp outperforms SGDM as the latter appears to have been stuck at a local minima. Therefore, this autoML BayesOpt framework provides a means to choose the best hyper-parameter settings for a given dataset.

Advances in remote sensing have led to use of satellite-derived rainfall products to complement the sparse rain gauge data. Although globally derived and some regional bias corrected, these products often show large discrepancies with ground measurements attributed to local and external factors that require systematic consideration. Decreasing rain gauge network however inhibits continuous validation of these products. We propose to deal with this problem by the use of Bayesian approach to merge the existing historical rain gauge information to create a consistent satellite rainfall data that can be used for climate studies. Monthly Bayesian bias correction is applied to the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS v2) data to reduce systematic errors using a corresponding gridded (0.05°) rain gauge data over East Africa for a period of 33 (1981–2013) years of which 22 years are utilized to derive error fields which are then applied to an independent CHIRPS data for 11 years for validation. The bias correction is spatially and temporally assessed during the rainfall wet months of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and October–December (OND) in East Africa. Results show significant reduction of systematic errors at both monthly and yearly scales and harmonization of their cumulative distributions. Monthly statistics showed a reduction of RMSD (29–56)% and MAE (28–60)% and an increase of correlations (2–32) %, while yearly ones showed reductions of RMSD (9-23)%, and MAE (7–27)% and increase of correlations (4–77)% for MAM months, reduction of RMSD (15–35)% and MAE (16–41)% and increase in correlations (5–16)% for JJA months, and reduction of RMSD (3–35)% and MAE (9–32)% and increase of correlations (3–65)% for OND months. Systematic errors of corrected data were influenced by local processes especially over Lake Victoria and high elevated areas. Large-scale circulations induced errors were mainly during JJA and OND rainfall seasons and were reduced by the separation of anomalous years during training. The proposed approach is recommended for generating long-term data for climate studies where consistencies of errors can be assumed.

In this paper we perform numerous numerical studies for the problem of low-rank matrix completion. We compare the Bayesian approaches and a recently introduced de-biased estimator which provides a useful way to build confidence intervals of interest. From a theoretical viewpoint, the de-biased estimator comes with a sharp minimax-optimal rate of estimation error whereas the Bayesian approach reaches this rate with an additional logarithmic factor. Our simulation studies show originally interesting results that the de-biased estimator is just as good as the Bayesian estimators. Moreover, Bayesian approaches are much more stable and can outperform the de-biased estimator in the case of small samples. However, we also find that the length of the confidence intervals revealed by the de-biased estimator for an entry is absolutely shorter than the length of the considered credible interval. These suggest further theoretical studies on the estimation error and the concentration for Bayesian methods as they are being quite limited up to present.

Establishing an accurate mathematical model is the foundation of simulating the motion of marine vehicles and structures, and it is the basis of modeling-based control design. System identification from observed input-output data is a practical and powerful method. However, for modeling objects with different characteristics and known information, a single modeling framework can hardly meet the requirements of model establishment. Moreover, there are some challenges in system identification, such as parameter drift and overfitting. In this work, three robust methods are proposed for generating ocean hydrodynamic models based on Bayesian regression. Two Bayesian techniques, semi-conjugate linear regression and noisy input Gaussian process regression, are used for parametric and nonparametric gray-box modeling and black-box modeling. The experimental free-running tests of the KVLCC2 ship model and a multi-freedom wave energy converter (WEC) are used to validate the proposed Bayesian models. The results demonstrate that the proposed schemes for system identification of the ship and WEC have good generalization ability and robustness. Finally, the developed modeling methods are evaluated considering the aspects required conditions, operating characteristics and prediction accuracy.

Natural risks encompass a range of disasters and dangers, requiring comprehensive management through assessments, anticipations, and advanced alert systems. Our specific focus is on landslides in challenging terrains. The evaluation of landslide risks employs sophisticated multicriteria models, such as the weighted sum approach, integrating qualitative parameters. Despite the challenges of the rugged terrain in Northern Algeria, it paradoxically hosts a dense population attracted by valuable hydro-agricultural resources. Our research is dedicated to studying landslide risks in these areas, particularly in the Mila region, with the aim of constructing a statistical model integrating considerations of both danger and vulnerability. This complex process identifies threats and their determining factors, including geomorphology and socio-economic conditions. The result is a valuable tool for effective risk management, strengthening safety and resilience against natural disasters. By understanding the intricate interplay of geological, environmental, and social elements, our research can contribute to the development of targeted interventions, fostering a more resilient community in the face of natural adversities.

This study explores the complexities involved in the extraction and purification of catechins, prominent bioactive compounds found in plant extracts and tea. It addresses challenges arising from the intricate molecular structure of catechins and their inherent variability across botanical sources. Despite these obstacles, catechins present significant potential, particularly in healthcare. Their potent antioxidant properties have been extensively investigated and associated with numerous health benefits, positioning them as promising therapeutic agents for combating chronic diseases. Furthermore, catechins have diverse applications across various industries, including food and beverage, cosmetics, agriculture, and materials science. This abstract emphasizes the importance of continued research and innovation in catechin extraction and utilization, which hold promise for advancing human health and technological progress across multiple domains.

Glycosidic linkage analysis was conducted on the unfractionated polysaccharides in the alcohol-insoluble residues (AIRs) prepared from six red seaweeds (Gracilariopsis sp., Prionitis sp., Mastocarpus papillatus, Callophyllis sp., Mazzaella splendens, and Palmaria palmata) using GC-MS/FID analysis of partially methylated alditol acetates (PMAAs). The cell walls of P. palmata primarily contained mixed-linkage xylans and small amounts of sulfated galactans and cellulose. In contrast, the unfractionated polysaccharides of the other five species were rich in galactans displaying diverse 3,6-anhydro-galactose and galactose linkages with varied sulfation patterns. Different levels of cellulose were also observed. This glycosidic linkage method offers advantages for cellulose analysis over traditional monosaccharide analysis that is known for underrepresenting glucose in crystalline cellulose. Relative linkage compositions calculated from GC-MS and GC-FID measurements showed that anhydro sugar linkages generated more response in the latter detection method. This improved linkage workflow presents a useful tool for studying polysaccharide structural variations across red seaweed species. Furthermore, for the first time, relative linkage compositions from GC-MS and GC-FID measurements, along with normalized FID and total ion current (TIC) chromatograms without peak assignments, were analyzed using principal component analysis (PCA) as a proof-of-concept demonstration of the technique's potential to differentiate various red seaweed species.

Background: Metabolic flux analysis (MFA) is an indispensable tool in metabolic engineering. The simplest variant of MFA relies on an overdetermined stoichiometric model of the cell’s metabolism under the pseudo-steady state assumption, to evaluate the intracellular flux distribution. Despite its long history, the issue of model error in the overdetermined MFA, particularly misspecifications of the stoichiometric matrix, has not received much attention. Method: We evaluated the performance of statistical tests from linear least square regressions, namely Ramsey RESET test, F-test and Lagrange multiplier test, in detecting model misspecifications in the overdetermined MFA, particularly missing reactions. We further proposed an iterative procedure using the F-test to correct such an issue. Result: Using Chinese hamster ovary and random metabolic networks, we demonstrated that: (1) a statistically significant regression does not guarantee high accuracy of the flux estimates, (2) the removal of a reaction with a low flux magnitude can cause disproportionately large biases in the flux estimates, (3) the F-test could efficiently detect missing reactions, and (4) the proposed iterative procedure could robustly resolve the omission of reactions. Conclusion: Our work demonstrated that statistical analysis and tests could be used to systematically assess, detect and resolve model misspecifications in the overdetermined MFA.

Plantar flexors (PF) spasticity is known to poorly correlate with active dorsiflexion (DF) impairment throughout the swing phase of hemiparetic gait. Spastic Cocontraction, instead, stemming from descending pathways, potentially misdirect antagonist PF activity opposing DF during swing. Electromyographic (EMG) recordings, while unable to differentiate between reflex-based and descending origins, may offer valuable insights into this distinction by exploring PF EMG activity after tibial nerve neurotomy (which eliminates PF spasticity). Eleven subjects with hemiparesis walking at comfortable velocity and 11 controls walking at comfortable and slow velocity, underwent kinematic and PF/DF EMG analysis. Five of the hemiparetic subjects underwent tibial neurotomy &gt;1 year prior. We evaluated spasticity at rest (Tardieu scale), maximal ankle dorsiflexion, tibialis anterior agonist recruitment and gastrocnemius medialis and soleus cocontraction coefficients during swing. At slow velocity, controls (0.80±0.12 m/s) moved at a similar pace as hemiparetic subjects (0.73±0.37 m/s, NS). Hemiparetic subjects showed: (i) reduced ankle DF across swing (ii) increased PF cocontraction, including before any DF (iii) higher cocontraction despite absent spasticity in tibial neurotomy subjects (iv) higher tibialis anterior recruitment. Increased PF cocontraction occurs in the absence of spasticity or ankle DF despite higher agonist recruitment. Spastic cocontraction is a major factor limiting active DF at swing, unlike spasticity.

Superior fiber quality is one of the most important objectives in cotton breeding. To detect the genetic basis underlying fiber quality, an F2 population containing 413 plants was constructed by crossing Jifeng 914 and Jifeng 173, both of which have superior fiber quality, with Jifeng 173 being better. Five fiber quality traits were investigated in the F2, F2:3, F2:4, and F2:5 populations. Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping was conducted based on a high-density genetic map containing 11,488 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and spanning 4,202.12 cM in length. Transgressive segregation patterns and complex correlations in the five tested traits were observed. A total of 108 QTLs were found, including 27 for fiber length (FL), 16 for fiber strength (FS), 24 for micronaire (MC), 17 for fiber uniformity (FU), and 24 for fiber elongation rate (FE). Chromosome A7 contained 12 QTL, ranking the first. No QTL was found on chromosome D1 and D11. Each QTL contributed 1.98%–21.45% to the phenotypic variation (PV), including 13 major effect QTLs that contributed more than 10% toward PV. Two QTLs could be repeatedly detected in three populations, including qFL-D3-2 in F2, F2:4, and F2:5 with 9.18%–21.45% of PV, qFS-A11-1 in F2:3, F2:4 and F2:5 with 6.05%–10.41% of PV. Another seven stable QTLs could be detected in two populations, including four major effect QTLs: qFL-A12-3, qFS-D10-2, qMC-D6-2, and qMC-D8-1. Fourteen QTL-overlapping regions were found, which might explain the complex correlations among the five phenotypic traits. Four regions on chromosome A11, D3, D6, and D10 covered by both stable and major effect QTLs are promising for further fine mapping. The genomic regions of the two QTLs detected in three populations and the four major effect QTLs contain 810 genes. Gene functional analysis revealed that the annotated genes are mainly involved in protein binding and metabolic pathways. Fifteen candidate genes in the qFL-D3-2 region are highly expressed in fiber or ovules during fiber initiation, elongation, secondary cell wall thickening, or maturation stages. qRT-PCR revealed that Ghir_D03G005440.1 and Ghir_D03G011310.1 may play a role in promoting fiber initiation, Ghir_D03G006470.1 may be beneficial for promoting fiber elongation. This study provides more information for revealing the molecular genetic basis underlying cotton fiber quality.

The strong competition in the automotive industry has required manufacturers to implement lean production, both with methods and techniques specific to Industry 4.0. At the same time, universities must provide graduates with specific skills for applying these new production methods and techniques. In this context, a Lean Learning Factory was developed in the Pitesti University Center, which allows students to learn, experiment, and research, in an environment similar to that of enterprises, the new Lean Manufacturing methods and techniques, and Industry 4.0. The research presented in this study had as its objective identifying the minimum number of repetitions necessary to train operators who serve two differently organized workstations, one classic, the other including digital techniques, but on which the same assembly operation is performed. Several indicators were considered in the analysis, such as the number of errors, the number of stops, the effective duration of the work cycle, and the percentage ratio between the standard duration of cyclical activities and the effective duration of the work cycle. The evolution of these indicators was mathematically modelled by regression functions, using the least squares method. The obtained results also highlight the usefulness of applying the DOJO method as a Lean manufacturing-specific learning technique and the efficiency of implementing digital techniques in work organization.

The design complexity of the new generation of civil aero-engines results in higher demands on engines’ components, higher component temperature, higher heat generation, and, finally, critical thermal management issues. This paper will propose a methodological approach to create physics-based models for heat loads developed by sources as well as a systematic sensitivity analysis to identify the effects of design parameters on the thermal behaviour of civil aero-engines. The ranges and levels of heat loads generated by heat sources (e.g., accessory gearbox, bearing, pumps, etc.) and heat absorption capacity of heat sinks (e.g., engine fuel, oil, and air) are discussed systematically. The practical research challenges for thermal management system design and development for the new and next generation of turbofan engines will then be addressed through a sensitivity analysis of the heat load values as well as the heat sinks flow rates. The potential solutions for thermal performance enhancements of propulsion systems will be proposed and discussed accordingly.

The way people innovate and create new ideas and bring them to the market is undergoing a fundamental change from closed innovation to open innovation. Why and how do firms perform open innovation? Firms’ open innovation is measured through the levels of firms’ joint patent applications. Next, we analyze network structures and characters of firms’ joint patent applications such as betweenness and degree centrality, structure hole, and closure. From this research, we drew conclusions as follows. First, the structure of collaboration networks has both direct and indirect effects on firms’ innovative performance. Second, in the process of joint patent applications, there is a long tail phenomenon in networks of joint patent applications. Third, the number of patents and International Patent Classification (IPC) subclasses together constitute a meaningful measure of the innovation performance of firms.