The state detection of power cable is very important to ensure the reliability of power supply. Traditional sensors are mostly based on electric field detection, the operation is complex, and its efficiency needs to be improved. This paper optimizes the design and development of the magnetic field detection sensor for AC power cables. Firstly, through the establishment of the magnetic field sensor model, it is determined that permalloy is the material of the magnetic core, the optimal aspect ratio of the magnetic core is 20, and the ratio of coil length to core length is 0.3. Secondly, the coil simulation model is established, and it is determined that the optimal number of turns of the coil is 11000 turns, the diameter of the enamelled copper wire is 0.08mm, and the equivalent magnetic field noise of the sensor is 0.06pT. Finally, the amplifying circuit based on negative magnetic flux feedback is designed and the sensor is assembled, and the experimental circuit is built for sensitivity test. the results show that the sensitivity of the magnetic field sensor is 327.6mV/μT. The sensor designed in this paper has the advantages of small size, high sensitivity, easy to carry and high reliability.

The magnetic properties of 0.10 mm ultra-thin grain-oriented (UTGO) silicon steel and Fe-based amorphous (FBA) alloy under sinusoidal excitation were measured experimentally, and the magnetic field strength and iron loss of the two materials under different frequencies and magnetic densities were obtained. Based on the measured data, the magnetization and loss characteristics of the two materials were analyzed and compared. Furthermore, two Epstein square ring models of the same specification and different materials were designed, and the reliability of the models was verified. Then, the electromagnetic characteristics of the two Epstein square ring models at higher and lower frequencies were calculated by using the finite element method, and the iron loss was obtained and compared. The results show that the FBA alloy has good application characteristics at low frequency and low power, and the 0.10 mm UTGO silicon steel has good application characteristics at high frequency and high power. This research can provide important data basis to promote the application of these two materials in new energy equipment.

As the adoption of renewable energy sources grows, ensuring a stable power balance across various time frames has become a central challenge for modern power systems. In line with the "dual carbon" objectives and the seamless integration of renewable energy sources, harnessing the advantages of various energy storage resources and coordinating the operation of long-term and short-term storage have become pivotal directions for future energy storage deployment. To address the complexities arising from the coupling of different time scales in optimizing energy storage capacity, this paper proposes a method for energy storage planning that accounts for power imbalance risks across multiple time scales. Initially, the Seasonal and Trend decomposition using the Loess (STL) decomposition method is utilized to temporally decouple actual operational data. Subsequently, power balance computations are performed based on the obtained data at various time scales to optimize the allocation of different types of energy storage capacities and assess the associated imbalance risks. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated through hourly applications using real-world data from a province in China over recent years.

In the modern power grid, characterized by the increased penetration of power electronics and extensive utilization of renewable energy, inverters-based power plants play a pivotal role as the principal interface of renewable energy sources (RESs) and the grid. Considering the stability characteristics of grid-following (GFL) inverters when the grid is relatively weak, the application of grid-forming (GFM) controls becomes imperative to enhance the stability of the entire power plant. Thus, there is an urgent need for suitable and effective models to study the interaction and stability of the paralleled inverters employing GFL and GFM controls. Thus, the small-signal modeling with full-order state space model and eigenvalues analysis is presented in this paper. First, the small-signal state-space model of the individual GFL and GFM inverters is obtained considering the control loop, interaction, reference frame, transmissions, and time delays. Then, the models of the individual inverter are extended to the hybrid inverters to study the effects of the GFM inverters on the small- signal stability of the entire system. And, the impacts of the inertia and damping are analyzed by the eigenvalues of the state-transition matrix. Case comprising three parallel GFL inverters and two GFL inverters with one GFM inverter, respectively, are studied to examine the effectiveness and accuracy of the model. Finally, the stability margin obtained from the eigenvalue analysis of the entire system is verified by time-domain simulations.

Estimating parameters for multiple datasets can be time consuming, especially when the number of datasets is large. One solution is to sample from multiple datasets simultaneously using Bayesian methods such as adaptive multiple importance sampling (AMIS). Here we use the AMIS approach to fit a von Misses distribution to multiple datasets for wind trajectories derived from a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model driven from a 3D meteorological data. The primary objective is to characterise the uncertainties in wind trajectories in a form that can be used as inputs for predictive models of wind-dispersed insect pests and pathogens of agricultural crops for use in evaluating risk and in planning mitigation actions. Our results show that AMIS can significantly improve the efficiency of parameter inference for multiple datasets.

With the development of higher voltage power grid, the high and low voltage parallel loops are emerging, which lead to energy losses, even threaten the security and stability of power system. The multi-infeed HVDC configurations widely appearing in AC/DC interconnected power system make this situation even worse. Aimed at energy saving and system security, a decision optimization method for power grid operating condition with high and low voltage parallel loops is proposed in this paper. Firstly, considering hub substation distribution and power grid structure, parallel loop opening schemes are generated with GN algorithm. Then, candidate opening schemes are preliminarily selected from all these generated schemes based on a filtering index. Finally, with the influence on power system security, stability and operation economy in consideration, an evaluation model for candidate opening schemes is founded based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP). And a fuzzy evaluation algorithm is used to find the optimal scheme. Simulation results of New England 39-bus system and an actual power system validate the effectiveness and superiority of this proposed method.

The insufficient flexibility of the hybrid renewable integrated energy system (HRIES) makes it difficult to accommodate renewable energy with a high proportion. It is thus necessary to excavate its potential flexibility to improve its operational performance and consume renewable energy. This paper unlocks the adjustment potential of flexible buildings and builds a flexible thermal load regulation model according to the dynamic thermal characteristics and thermal comfort elastic interval of the buildings and a regulation model of the flexible electrical load based on its transferability, resectability, and rigidity. An operation optimization model, which incorporates multiple flexible load regulations and the variable load of devices, is then developed. A case study is presented to analyze the regulation and synergy mechanism in different types of flexible loads. Its results show a saturation effect between the flexible thermal and electrical loads in increasing renewable energy consumption and a synergy effect in decreasing the total cost. This synergy can reduce the total cost by 0.73%. Besides, the total cost can be reduced by 15.13%, and the renewable energy curtailment rate can decrease by 12.08% if the flexible electric and thermal loads are integrated into the operation optimization of HRIES.

In his best-selling book An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, W. Feller established a way of ending the St. Petersburg Paradox by the introduction of an entrance fee, and provided it for the case in which the game is played with a fair coin. A natural generalization of his method is to establish the entrance fee for the case in which the probability of head is θ (0 < θ < 1/2). The deduction of those fees is the main result of Section 2. We then propose a Bayesian approach to the problem. When the probability of head is θ (1/2 < θ < 1) the expected gain of the St. Petersburg Game is finite, therefore there is no paradox. However, if one takes θ as a random variable assuming values in (1/2,1) the paradox may hold, what is counter-intuitive. On Section 3 we determine a necessary and sufficient condition for the absence of paradox on the Bayesian approach and on Section 4 we establish the entrance fee for the case in which θ is uniformly distributed in (1/2,1), for in this case there is paradox.

Single-phase-to-ground fault in non-effectively grounded systems poses serious public safety concern. Along with increasing deployment of low-voltage (LV) sensors, new opportunities and ways are created for solving this traditional problem in distribution systems. A new approach, identifying primary single-phase-to-ground line fault and locating it through measurement data from smart sensors deployed in the secondary side of distribution transformers, is proposed in this paper. When a fault occurs in primary distribution feeder, the transient aerial mode voltage (AMV) of each LV smart sensor is calculated. The fault line can be identified by an abrupt change value of AMV at LV side. Next, by finding the position of the maximum value of this AMV from LV sensors on the fault line, the fault location can be pinpointed to two neighboring distribution transformers. The proposed method has been proven to be efficient and reliable by simulation studies.

Semi-continuous data are very common in the social science and economics. In this paper, a Bayesian variable selection procedure is developed to assess the influence of exogenous factors including observed and unobserved on the semi-continuous data. Our formulation is based on the two-part latent variable model with polytomous response. We consider two schemes for the penalties of regression coefficients and factor loadings: the Bayesian spike and slab bimodal prior and the Bayesian lasso prior. Within the Bayesian framework, we implement Markov Chains Monte Carlo sampling method to conduct posterior inference. To facilitate posterior sampling, we recast the logistic model in part one as the norm-like mixture model. Gibbs sampler is designed to draw observations from the posterior. Our empirical results show that with suitable hyper-parameters, the spike and slab bimodal method slightly outperforms the Bayesian lasso in the current analysis. Finally, a real example related to the China household finance survey is analyzed to illustrate the application of the methodology.. .

An active power dispatch method for a microgrid (MG) with multi-type loads, renewable energy sources (RESs) and distributed energy storage devices (DESDs) is the focus of this paper. The MG operates in a grid-connected model, and distributed power sources contribute to the service for load demands. The outputs of multiple DESDs are controlled to optimize the active power dispatch. Our goal with optimization is to reduce the economic cost under time-of-use (TOU) price, and to adjust the excessively high or low load rate of distributed transformers (DTs) caused by the peak-valley demand and load uncertainties. To simulate a practical environment, the stochastic characteristics of multi-type loads are formulated. The transition matrix of system state is provided. Then, a finite-horizon Markov decision process (FHMDP) model is established to describe the dispatch optimization problem. A learning-based technique is adopted to search the optimal joint control policy of multiple DESDs. Finally, simulation experiments are performed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, and the fuzzification analysis of the method is presented.

ACL instability poses a significant challenge in traumatology and orthopedic medicine, often requiring accurate diagnosis for appropriate treatment. While the pivot-shift test offers a crucial means of assessment, its reliance on subjective interpretation underscores the need for supplementary imaging studies. This study aims to address this limitation by developing a Bayesian classification algorithm tailored for integration into a mobile application. Using the built-in inertial sensors of smartphones, this new approach aims to dynamically evaluate rotational stability during knee examinations. Orthopedic specialists conducted knee evaluations on 52 subjects, with subsequent analysis revealing interesting insights. Intraobserver and interobserver analyses, as measured by ICC, demonstrated strong agreement both in terms of timing between maneuvers (ICC = 0.94) and signal amplitude (ICC = 0.71-0.66). Notably, the Bayesian algorithm successfully classified 95% of joint hypermobility cases, with an additional 7 cases of hyperlaxity identified by the Pivot-Shift Meter (PSM). These findings highlight the practicality and effectiveness of implementing a Bayesian classification algorithm within a mobile application for assessing and categorizing signals captured by smartphone inertial sensors during the pivot-shift test.

Off-grid electrification planning increasingly recognizes the importance of productive use of electricity (PUE) to promote community value creation and (financial) project sustainability. To ensure a sustainable and efficient integration in the community and energy system, PUE assets must carefully be evaluated to match both the community needs and the residential electricity demand patterns. We propose a novel methodology interlinking qualitative interviews, statistical analysis, and energy system modelling to optimize decision-making for PUE integration in off-grid energy systems in rural Madagascar by aligning relevant PUE effectively with anticipated residential electricity demand patterns based on socio-economic determinants of the community. We find that a possible contribution of the PUE to reducing the electricity costs depends signifi-cantly on three factors: 1. the residential electricity consumption patterns that are influenced by the socio-economic composition of the community, 2. the degree of flexibility of i) PUE assets and ii) operational preferences of the PUE user, and 3. the capacity of community members to finance and operate PUE assets. Our study demonstrates that significant cost reductions for PUE-integrated off-grid energy systems can be achieved by applying our proposed methodology. When matching PUE and residential consumption patterns, the integration of PUE assets in residential community energy system can reduce the financial risk of operators, provided the PUE enterprise operates reliably and sustainably. We highlight that the consideration of local value chains and co-creation approaches are essential to ensure the energy system is addressing the community’s needs, creates value for the community, enhances the project´s financial sustainability, and is achieving the overall objectives of decentralized energy system planning.

Fitting parameters on spline curves produces more parsimonious models, maintaining fit quality. Smoothing the splines reduces predictive variance. Individual splines are often fit by type of variable, e.g., in age-period-cohort models. Linear and cubic splines are most common. Several smoothing criteria have been used for parameter curves, with cubic splines fit by constraining the integral of splines’ squared-second derivatives popular recently. Constraining the sum of squared second differences for linear splines is analogous. Generally the degree of smoothing is selected using cross-validation. Known spline dummy-variable matrices allow regression estimation of splines, with smoothing done via constrained regression. Smoothing criteria based on sums of squares or absolute values of parameters, as in ridge regression or LASSO, improves predictive accuracy and produces splines similar to smoothing by second-derivative constraints. Variables with very low t-statistics represent points where curve-shapes barely change. Eliminating those variables leaves knots concentrated where spline shapes change. A Bayesian version of this puts shrinkage priors on spline parameters. This yields realistic joint parameter distributions, avoids problems associated with using cross-validation for parameter estimation, and readily expands to non-linear modeling, such as interactions among variable types. Regularized regression and Bayesian spline methods are compared for two example datasets.

Energy Measurement and Verification (M&V) aims to make inferences about the savings achieved in energy projects, given the data and other information at hand. Traditionally, a frequentist approach has been used to quantify these savings and their associated uncertainties. We demonstrate that the Bayesian paradigm is an intuitive, coherent, and powerful alternative framework within which M&V can be done. Its advantages and limitations are discussed, and two examples from the industry-standard International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP) are solved using the framework. Bayesian analysis is shown to describe the problem more thoroughly and yield richer information and uncertainty quantification than the standard methods while not sacrificing model simplicity. We also show that Bayesian methods can be more robust to outliers. Bayesian alternatives to standard M&V methods are listed, and examples from literature are cited.

This paper proposes a novel single-stage buck-boost three-Level neutral-point-clamped (NPC) inverter with two independent dc sources coupled for the grid-tied photovoltaic (PV) application, which can effectively solve the unbalanced operational conditions generally appeared between two coupled independent PV sources induced by the unequal irradiation and temperature distribution. The proposed control scheme can simultaneously guarantee the maximum power point (MPP) operation of both PV sources and maintain the output waveform quality. Compared to the traditional two-stage PV inverter, the proposed NPC inverter could reduce the PV array voltage requirement and dc-link capacitors’ voltage rating, meanwhile show the advantage in operational efficiency. MATLAB simulations and the captured experimental results are presented to show the performance of the proposed three-level inverter.

Machine learning forks into three main branches such as supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and reinforcement learning where reinforcement learning is much potential to artificial intelligence (AI) applications because it solves real problems by progressive process in which possible solutions are improved and finetuned continuously. The progressive approach, which reflects ability of adaptation, is appropriate to the real world where most events occur and change continuously and unexpectedly. Moreover, data is getting too huge for supervised learning and unsupervised learning to draw valuable knowledge from such huge data at one time. Bayesian optimization (BO) models an optimization problem as a probabilistic form called surrogate model and then directly maximizes an acquisition function created from such surrogate model in order to maximize implicitly and indirectly the target function for finding out solution of the optimization problem. A popular surrogate model is Gaussian process regression model. The process of maximizing acquisition function is based on updating posterior probability of surrogate model repeatedly, which is improved after every iteration. Taking advantages of acquisition function or utility function is also common in decision theory but the semantic meaning behind BO is that BO solves problems by progressive and adaptive approach via updating surrogate model from a small piece of data at each time, according to ideology of reinforcement learning. Undoubtedly, BO is a reinforcement learning algorithm with many potential applications and thus it is surveyed in this research with attention to its mathematical ideas. Moreover, the solution of optimization problem is important to not only applied mathematics but also AI.

Bootstrap resampling techinques, introduced by Efron and Rubin, can be presented in a general Bayesian framework, approximating the statistical distribution of a statistical functional φ(F), where F is a random distribution function. Efron’s and Rubin’s bootstrap procedures can be extended introducing an informative prior through the Proper Bayesian bootstrap. In this paper different bootstrap techniques are used and compared in predictive classification and regression models based on ensemble approaches, i.e. bagging models involving decision trees. Proper Bayesian bootstrap, proposed by Muliere and Secchi, is used to sample the posterior distribution over trees, introducing prior distributions on the covariates and the target variable. The results obtained are compared with respect to other competitive procedures employing different bootstrap techniques. The empirical analysis reports the results obtained on simulated and real data.

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) stands as a pivotal technological stride toward a sustainable future, with the practice of injecting supercritical CO2 into subsurface formations having already been an established practice for enhanced oil recovery operations. The overarching objective of CCS is to protract the operational viability and sustainability of platforms and oilfields, thereby facilitating a seamless transition towards sustainable practices. This study introduces a comprehensive framework for optimizing well placements in CCS operations, employing a derivative-free method known as Bayesian optimization. The development plan is tailored for scenarios featuring aquifers devoid of flow boundaries, incorporating production wells tasked with controlling pressure buildup and injection wells dedicated to CO2 sequestration. Notably, the wells operate under group control, signifying predefined injection and production targets and constraints that must be adhered to throughout the project’s lifespan. As a result, the objective function remains invariant under specific permutations of the well locations. Our investigation delves into the efficacy of Bayesian optimization under the introduced permutation invariance. The results reveal that it demonstrates critical efficiency in handling the optimization task extremely fast. In essence, this study advocates for the efficacy of Bayesian optimization in the context of optimizing well placements for CCS operations, emphasizing its potential as a preferred methodology for enhancing sustainability in the energy sector.

Market turbulence with fiscal investment influences has altered IT infrastructure performance as business pursue extravagant new technology adoption. Yet, few studies have examined how shareware solution goes beyond Medium Size Enterprise that pushes efficiency and sustainability. This PLS-SEM integrated with dual primary compilation approach lessens shallow perceptions coupled with outlooks that streamline each phenomenal activity that is worthy of the necessity for competitive innovation. This unified model was applied to sampling respondents and analyzed using an ordinal regression relationship that generates a robust association that triggers the hypothesis acceptance. The adopting of BOINC shareware mesh network towards unified processing designs that were employed to build the yield by promising financial possibility using coordinated interworks hence improved group accomplishment and establishing greater esteem. This paper showcases a flexible inner IT infrastructure alongside the economic uncertainty with the framework advancement for Exostructure as a Service. Associated theoretical and practical implications were discussed.

In classical broadcast models, information is disseminated in synchronous rounds under the constant communication time model, wherein a node may only inform one of its neighbors in each time unit—also known as the processor-bound model. These models assume either a coordinating leader or that each node has a set of coordinated actions optimized for each originator, which may requiring nodes to have sufficient storage, processing power, and the ability to determine the originator. This assumption is not always ideal, and a broadcast model based on the node’s local knowledge can sometimes be more effective. Messy models address these issues by eliminating the need for a leader, knowledge of the starting time, and the identity of the originator, relying solely on local knowledge available to each node. This paper investigates the Messy broadcast time and optimal scheme in a Grid graph, a structure widely used in computer networking systems, particularly in parallel computing, due to its robustness, scalability, fault tolerance, and simplicity. The focus is on scenarios where the originator is located at one of the corner vertices, aiming to understand the efficiency and performance of Messy models in such Grid structures.

This paper presents an improved droop control strategy for grid-connected inverter power stability and power quality under distorted with consideration of grid fluctuation and inter-harmonics. An instantaneous frequency without PLL and amplitude of capacitor voltage feed-forward control strategy is given to power stability control, meanwhile a grid current feedback control is given by an incomplete derivation with a high-pass filter, so that the harmonics and inter-harmonics current can be suppressed. These approaches can provide both good active and reactive power dynamic response under fluctuation of frequency, and rejection ability against harmonic and inter-harmonic voltage. Based on model of inverter, the proposed control strategies are designed in detail. Simulations and experiments are present to validate the effectiveness of proposed method.

When a grid-forming (GFM) inverter is connected to a low or medium voltage weak power grid, the line impedance with resistive-inductive characteristics will cause power coupling. Typical GFM decoupling control strategies are designed under nominal line impedance parameters. However, there are deviations between the nominal line impedance and actual parameters, resulting in poor decoupling effects. Aiming at this problem, this paper proposes a power decoupling strategy based on a reduced-order extended state observer (ESO). Firstly, the power dynamic model of GFM is established based on the dynamic phasor method. Then, the model deviation and power coupling due to line impedance parameter perturbation are estimated as internal disturbances of the system, and the disturbances are compensated on the basis of typical power control strategy and virtual impedance decoupling. Good decoupling performance is obtained under different impedance parameters, improving the control strategy's robustness. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by the results of RT Box hardware-in-the-loop experiments.

A robust explicit model predictive control (EMPC)-based frequency adaptive grid voltage sensorless control is developed for a grid-connected inverter (GCI) via a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach under the model parameter uncertainties and non-ideal grid environment. The control scheme is achieved by an enhanced prediction model rather than the conventional prediction model provided by fixed parameters to maintain the quality of grid currents injected into the grid when the model parameters are varied. Furthermore, an LMI-based observer is integrated with the disturbance observer to improve the reference tracking performance and reject disturbances. The proposed observer is employed for the grid frequency adaptive control without need of grid voltage sensors. The proposed current controller and observer employ the LMI scheme to maintain a stable and robust operation of the GCI. The discrete-time frequency response and pole-zero map analyses are used to investigate system stability and robustness against parameter uncertainties. Comprehensive simulation, experimental results and analyses clearly demonstrate the robustness of the proposed control scheme under various adverse test conditions with unexpected grid and system uncertainties.

This paper focuses on a joint model to analyse longitudinal proportion and survival data. After transforming the longitudinal proportional data by a logit function, we adopt a partially linear mixed-effect model for it, in which nonlinear function of time is fitted via using B-splines technique and a centered Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (CDPMM) is specified for a general distribution of random effects. The survival data is assumed to a Cox proportional hazard model, the sharing random effects joint model is developed for the two types of data. Combining the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, we propose a Bayesian Lasso (BLasso) method to simultaneously estimate unknown parameters and select important covariates. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the finite sample performance of the proposed methods. An example from the MA.5 research experiment is used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

In this paper study, we develop a Bayesian Network model selection principle that address addresses the incommensurability of network features obtained from incongruous datasets and overcomes performance irregularities of the Minimum Description Length model selection principle. This is achieved (i) by approaching model evaluation as a classification problem, (ii) by estimating the effect that sampling error has on the satisfiability of conditional independence criterion, as reflected by Mutual Information, and (iii) by utilizing this error estimate to penalize uncertainty in the Minimum Uncertainty (MU) model selection principle. We validate our findings numerically and demonstrate the performance advantages of the MU criterion. Finally, we illustrate the advantages of the new model evaluation framework on a tRNA structural biology example.

Classical methods for inverse problems are mainly based on regularization theory. In particular those which are based on optimization of a criterion with two parts: a data-model matching and a regularization term. Different choices for these two terms and great number of optimization algorithms have been proposed. When these two terms are distance or divergence measures, they can have a Bayesian Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) interpretation where these two terms correspond, respectively, to the likelihood and prior probability models.

The power function distribution is a flexible waiting time model that may provide better fit for some failure data. This paper presents the comparison of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates of two-parameter power function distribution. The Bayes estimates are obtained, using conjugate priors, under five loss functions consist of square error, precautionary, weighted, LINEX and DeGroot loss function. The Gibbs sampling algorithm is proposed to generate samples from posterior distributions and in result the Bayes estimates are computed. The comparison of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates are done through the root mean squared errors. One real-life data set is analyzed to illustrate the evaluation of proposed methods of estimation. Finally, results from the simulation are discussed to assess the performance behavior of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates.

We present a first formal analysis of specific and complete local integration. Complete local integration was previously proposed as a criterion for detecting entities or wholes in distributed dynamical systems. Such entities in turn were conceived to form the basis of a theory of emergence of agents within dynamical systems. Here, we give a more thorough account of the underlying formal measures. The main contribution is the disintegration theorem which reveals a special role of completely locally integrated patterns (what we call ι-entities) within the trajectories they occur in. Apart from proving this theorem we introduce the disintegration hierarchy and its refinement-free version as a way to structure the patterns in a trajectory. Furthermore we construct the least upper bound and provide a candidate for the greatest lower bound of specific local integration. Finally, we calculate the i-entities in small example systems as a first sanity check and find that ι-entities largely fulfil simple expectations.

The synchronization of complex networks is believed to be closely related to network topology. How to study synchronization of real network without clear topology and parameters? In this Letter, a synchronized stability boundary equation is derived that is system- and disturbance-independent and applicable to arbitrarily coupled grids. The results imply that spontaneous synchronization in a network may be network independent. These conclusions provide new research paths for network synchronization and analyze the synchronization stability of grids in a unified way.

The rapid integration of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is transforming the traditional electrical grid into a {\em Smart Grid}. Smart grids enable two-way communication and improved monitoring and control between utilities and customers. However, due to its heterogeneous nature, public exposure, and weak security at low-powered devices, the Smart Grid has vulnerabilities to various malicious threats, adversaries, and cyber attacks, which may affect cost and service availability. Additionally, when the systems' confidentiality, integrity, or availability are compromised, the resulting fallout can threaten national security and have cascading effects on human lives. Given the extreme consequences of an attack, smart-grid technology must be thoroughly tested for correct operation and security {\em before} it is deployed. As a result, vulnerability testing of smart grids, not only for correctness but for security purposes, has been the subject of numerous studies by academics, government agencies, and private companies. This paper reviews the vulnerabilities associated with the smart grid and spotlights simulation as the vulnerability testing methodology conducted in recent pertinent research works. It also presents various security aspects of the smart grid, including grid applications, system and network infrastructure and components, cyber threats and attacks, simulation, and different mitigation techniques. Finally, we analyze the gaps in the current research works, focusing on simulation. We briefly present a real-time simulation testbed that mimics customer behaviour and integrates hardware in the loop to apply attack methods, analyze vulnerabilities and risk mitigation associated with the smart grid system, and propose future work to improve the current framework.

Accurately estimating the current state of local traffic scenes is one of the key problems in the development of software components for automated vehicles. In addition to details on free space and drivability, static and dynamic traffic participants, information on the semantics may also be included in the desired representation. Multi-layer grid maps allow to include all this information in a common representation. However, most existing grid mapping approaches only process range sensor measurements such as LIDAR and Radar and solely model occupancy without semantic states. In order to add sensor redundancy and diversity it is desired to add vision based sensor setups in a common grid map representation. In this work, we present a semantic evidential grid mapping pipeline including estimates for eight semantic classes that is designed for straightforward fusion with range sensor data. Unlike in other publication our representation explicitly models uncertainties in the evdiential model. We present results of our grid mapping pipeline based on a monocular vision setup and a stereo vision setup. Our mapping resulsts are accurate and dense mapping due to the incorporation of a disparity- or depth-based ground surface estimation in the inverse perspective mapping. We conclude this paper by providing a detailed quantitative evaluation based on real traffic scenarios in the Kitti odometry benchmark and demonstrating the advantages compared to other semantic grid mapping approaches.

The increasing complexity of the design and operation evaluation process of multi-energy grids (MEGs) requires tools for the coupled simulation of power, gas and district heating grids. Most tools analyzed in this paper either do not allow coupling of infrastructures, simplify the grid model or are not publicly available. We introduce the open source piping grid simulation tool pandapipes that – in interaction with pandapower - fulfills three crucial criteria: clear data structure, adaptable MEG model setup and performance. In an introduction to pandapipes we illustrate how it fulfills these criteria through its internal structure and demonstrate how it performs in comparison to STANET®. Then we show two case studies that have been performed with pandapipes already. The first case study demonstrates a peak shaving strategy as interaction of a local electricity and district heating grid in a small settlement. The second case study analyzes the potential of a power-to-gas device to serve as flexibility in a power grid under consideration of gas grid constraints. They both show the importance of a clear database, a simple simulation setup and good performance to set up different large and complex studies on grid infrastructure design and operation.

In this paper, we focus on variational Bayesian learning deterministic optimization methods for inference in biparametric exponential models where the parameters follow semiparametric regression structures. This combination of data models and algorithms contributes to solving real-world problems and reduces the computation time. This allows both the rapid exploration of many data models and the accurate estimation of the mean and variance functions through the connection between generalized linear models and graph theory. A simulation study was carried out to assess the performance of the deterministic approximation. Finally, herein, we present an application using macroeconomic data to emphasize the benefits of the proposed approach.

This paper presents findings of a study on continuous feed-in management and continuous synthetic inertia contribution with wind turbines. A realistic case study, based on real measurements, is outlined. A wind turbine feeds into a weak feeder, such that its power has to be adapted to the permissible loading of this feeder. At the same time the wind turbine is to provide inertia to the grid by applying the previously published variable inertia constant controller. It is discussed that optimal grid utilisation and simultaneous inertia contribution are mandatory for the frequency control in power systems that are heavily penetrated with renewable energies. The study shows that continuous feed-in management can be combined well with continuous inertia provision. There are hardly any negative consequences for the wind turbine. The benefits for the grid are convincing, both in terms of increased system utilisation and in terms of provided inertia. It is concluded that wind turbines can enhance angular stability in a power system to a larger extent than conventional power plants.

The increasing prevalence of species that are detrimental to biodiversity is a major concern, particularly for managers of National Parks. To develop effective programs for controlling weeds, it is essential to have a thorough understanding of the extent and severity of infestations, as well as the contributing factors such as temperature, rainfall, and disturbance. Predicting these factors on a regional scale requires models that can incorporate a wide range of variables in a quantifiable manner, while also assisting with on-ground operations. In this study, we present two Bayesian Network models specifically designed for six significant weed species found along the southern coast of Australia. Our models are based on empirical data collected during a coastal weed survey conducted in 2015 and repeated in 2016. We applied these models to the coastal national parks in the isolated and pristine East Gippsland region. Importantly, the prediction models were developed at two different spatial scales that directly corresponded to the scale of the observations. Our findings indicate that coastal habitats, with their vulnerable environments and prevalence of open dune systems, are particularly susceptible to weed infestations. Moreover, adjacent regions also have the potential for colonization if these infestations are not effectively controlled. Climate-related factors play a role in moderating the potential for colonization, which is a significant concern for weed control efforts in the context of global climate change.

We propose a novel adaptive importance sampling scheme for Bayesian inversion problems where the inference of the variables of interest and the power of the data noise is split. More specifically, we consider a Bayesian analysis for the variables of interest (i.e., the parameters of the model to invert), whereas we employ a maximum likelihood approach for the estimation of the noise power. The whole technique is implemented by means of an iterative procedure, alternating sampling and optimization steps. Moreover, the noise power is also used as a tempered parameter for the posterior distribution of the the variables of interest. Therefore, a sequence of tempered posterior densities is generated, where the tempered parameter is automatically selected according to the actual estimation of the noise power. A complete Bayesian study over the model parameters and the scale parameter can be also performed. Numerical experiments show the benefits of the proposed approach.

This paper considers estimating the ratio of two distributions with different parameters and common supports. We consider a Bayesian approach based on the Log--Huber loss function which is resistant to outliers and useful to find robust M-estimators. We propose two different types of Bayesian density ratio estimators and compare their performance in terms of Bayesian risk function with themselves as well as the usual plug-in density ratio estimators. Some applications such as classification and divergence function estimation are addressed.

Technology development changes society and society demands new and innovative technology development. We analyze technology to understand society and technology itself. Many researches have been introduced in various fields. Most of them were about patent analysis. This is because detailed and accurate results of research and development are patented. In this paper, we study on new patent analysis method based on count data model and Bayesian regression analysis. Using count data model, we analyze the technological keywords extracted from the collected patent documents. We use the posterior distribution of Bayesian statistics to reflect the experience and knowledge of the relevant technological experts in the analysis model. Moreover, we apply the proposed model to finding sustainable technologies. Finding and developing sustainable technologies is an important activity for companies and research institutes to maintain their technological competitiveness. To illustrate how our modeling could be applied to real domain, we carry out a case study using the patent documents related to artificial intelligence.

This paper formulates the classic Monty Hall problem as a Bayesian game. Allowing Monty a small amount of freedom in his decisions facilitates a variety of solutions. The solution concept used is the Bayes Nash Equilibrium (BNE), and the set of BNE relies on Monty's motives and incentives. We endow Monty and the contestant with common prior probabilities (p) about the motives of Monty, and show that under certain conditions on p, the unique equilibrium is one where the contestant is indifferent between switching and not switching. This coincides and agrees with the typical responses and explanations by experimental subjects. Finally, we show that our formulation can explain the experimental results in Page (1998) [12]; that more people gradually choose switch as the number of doors in the problem increases.

Categorical variables are common in spatial data analysis. Traditional analytical methods for deriving probabilities of class occurrence, such as kriging-family algorithms, have been hindered by the discrete characteristics of categorical fields. This study introduces the theoretical backgrounds of linear Bayesian updating (LBU) approach for spatial classification through expert system. Transition probabilities are interpreted as expert opinions for updating the prior marginal probabilities of categorical response variables. The main objective of this paper is to present the solid theoretical foundations of LBU and provide a categorical random field prediction method which yields relatively higher classification accuracy compared with conventional Markov chain random field (MCRF) approach. A real-world case study has also been carried out to demonstrate the superiority of our method. Since the LBU idea is originated from aggregating expert opinions and not restricted to conditional independent assumption (CIA), it may prove to be reasonably adequate for analyzing complex geospatial data sets, like remote sensing images or area-class maps.

Natural polluted insulator surfaces are always coated with various kinds of soluble constituents, and those constituents affect flashover performance differentially. Currently this fact is not considered either in laboratory experiments or field pollution degree measurements, causing the existing insulation selection method to be deficient. In this paper a systematical research on insulator flashover voltage gradient correction involving types of soluble pollution constituents was presented. Taking typical type glass insulator as the sample, its flashover tests polluted by typical soluble chemicals NaCl, NaNO₃, KNO₃, NH₄NO₃, MgSO₄, Ca(NO₃)₂ and CaSO₄ were carried out. Then the flashover gradient correction was made combining the flashover performance of each soluble constituent, the ESDD contribution of the seven constituents, as well as the saturation performance of CaSO₄. The correction was well verified with the flashover test results of insulator polluted by three types of soluble mixture. Research results indicate that the flashover gradient correction method proposed by this paper performs well in reducing the calculating error. It is recommended to carry out component measurements and flashover gradient correction to better select outdoor insulation configuration.

The upgrade of energy infrastructure to those of smart grids, necessarily goes through the provision of integrated technological solutions that ensure the interoperability of their business capabilities and reduce the risk of devaluation of the systems used. The heterogeneity of the infrastructures and the dynamics of their operating environment, requires the continuous reduction of the complexity, the faster execution of the processes and the easy addition of innovative counterparts. Also, the integrated management of the overall ecosystem demands the provision of end-to-end interconnection, quality assurance, the definition of strict security policies, collaborative integration and correlation of events. In this respect, every design detail can be critical to the success or failure of a costly and ambitious project, such as that of smart energy networks. This work presents communication operating standards specific to the smart electricity networks applications, which should be taken into account in the process of planning and implementation of new infrastructures.

This policy paper explores various strategies that would facilitate transitioning the traditional Jordanian electrical grid to a secure smart grid. It includes comprehensive recommendations from academia and industry for the regulatory and governmental sector in Jordan to achieve specific roadmap objectives. As Jordan is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, This policy paper also provides recommendations for incorporating more renewables into its energy mix, thereby facilitating a sustainable future. The proposed policies will emphasise the creation of an enabling environment where innovation, research, and development initiatives flourish, thereby promoting private sector engagement.

In this paper, under the symmetric entropy and the scale squared error loss functions, we consider the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and Bayesian estimation of the Shannon entropy and Rényi entropy of the two-parameter inverse Weibull distribution. In the ML estimation, the dichotomy is used to solve likelihood equation. In addition, the approximation confidence interval is given by the Delta method. Because the form of estimation results is more complex in the Bayesian estimation, the Lindley approximation method is used to achieve the numerical calculation. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations and a real data set are used to illustrate the results derived. By comparing the mean square error between the estimated value and the real value, it can be found that the performance of ML estimation of Shannon entropy is better than that of Bayesian estimation, and there is no significant difference between the performance of ML estimation of Rényi entropy and that of Bayesian estimation.

Bayesian nonlinear mixed effects models for data in the form of continuous, repeated measurements from a population, also known as Bayesian hierarchical nonlinear models, are a popular platform for analysis when interest focuses on individual specific characteristics and relevant uncertainty quantification. Due to the limitation of computational power, this framework was relatively dormant until the late 1980s, but in recent years, the statistical research community saw vigorous development of new methodological and computational techniques for these models, the emergence of software, and wide application of the models in numerous industrial and academic fields. This article presents an overview of the formulation, interpretation, and implementation of Bayesian nonlinear mixed effects models and surveys recent advances and applications.

The utilization of wind energy has become increasingly popular in the United States and many European countries due to its abundant natural source and optimized design. While existing wind turbines are predominantly large-scale and not suitable for standalone or distributed power production, Lubbock County in West Texas offers a diverse range of renewable energy options to meet its energy needs. The region relies heavily on utility-scale wind energy sources to supply power to the Texas Grid, replacing conventional fossil fuel-based systems. Currently, standalone solar PV systems are the preferred choice for renewable energy generation. However, West Texas possesses an ample supply of wind energy that can be harnessed to establish a microgrid and provide standalone power to rural communities. By employing the latest technology and optimizing efficiency, even in low-scale generation, a 6 kW permanent magnet alternator-based distributed wind turbine has been designed. This paper focuses on analyzing the techno-economic aspects of implementing this wind turbine in a real-world scenario, taking into account wind attributes such as velocity and available power at the specific location.

Presently power control and management play a vigorous role in information technology and power management. Instead of non-renewable power manufacturing, renewable power manufacturing is preferred by every organization for controlling resource consumption, price reduction and efficient power management. Smart grid efficiently satisfies these requirements with the integration of machine learning algorithms. Machine learning algorithms are used in a smart grid for power requirement prediction, power distribution, failure identification etc. The proposed Random Forest-based smart grid system classifies the power grid into different zones like high and low power utilization. The power zones are divided into number of sub-zones and map to random forest branches. The sub-zone and branch mapping process used to identify the quantity of power utilized and the non-utilized in a zone. The non-utilized power quantity and location of power availabilities are identified and distributed the required quantity of power to the requester in a minimal response time and price. The priority power scheduling algorithm collect request from consumer and send the request to producer based on priority. The producer analysed the requester existing power utilization quantity and availability of power for scheduling the power distribution to the requester based on priority. The proposed Random Forest based sustainability and price optimization technique in smart grid experimental results are compared to existing machine learning techniques like SVM, KNN and NB. The proposed random forest-based identification technique identifies the exact location of the power availability, which takes minimal processing time and quick responses to the requestor. Additionally, the smart meter based smart grid technique identifies the faults in short time duration than the conventional energy management technique is also proven in the experimental results.

This work presents a control scheme to control the grid-connected single-phase photovoltaic (PV) system. The considered system has four 250W solar panels, a non-inverting buck-boost DC-DC converter, and DC-AC inverter with LCL filter. The control system aims to track and operate at the maximum power point (MPP) of PV panels, regulate the voltage of DC link, and supply the grid with a unity power factor. To well achieve these goals, the proposed control system consists of three parts, that are MPP tracking controller module with a fuzzy-based modified incremental conductance (INC) algorithm, a DC-link voltage regulator with a hybrid fuzzy proportional-integral (PI) controller, and a Current Controller module using the linear quadratic regulator (LQR) for grid-connected power. Based on fuzzy control and LQR, this work introduces a full control solution for grid-connected single-phase PV systems. The key novelty of this research is to analyze and prove that the newly proposed method is more successful in numerous aspects by comparing and evaluating the previous and present control methods. The designed control system settles quickly, which is critical for output stability. In addition, as compared to backstepping approach used in our past study, the LQR technique is more resistant to sudden changes and disturbances. Furthermore, backstepping method produces the larger overshoot, which has a detrimental impact on efficiency. Simulation findings under various weather conditions were compared to theoretical ones to indicate that the system can deal with variations in weather parameters.

Many research work has demonstrated that taken the Combined Cooling Heating and Power system (CCHP) as the core equipment, the integrated energy system (IES) can bring obvious benefit to energy efficiency, CO2 emission reduction and operation economy in urban areas. Compared with isolated IES, integrated energy micro-grid (IEMG) which is formed by connecting multiple regions IES together, through distribution and thermal network, can further improve the reliability, flexibility, cleanliness and economy of regional energy supply. Based on the existing IES model, this paper describes the basic structure of IEMG and built a IEMG planning model. The planning based on the mixed integer linear programming, and economically construction planning scheme are calculated by using known electricity, heating and cooling loads information and the given multiple equipment selection schemes. At last, the model is validated by a case study. The results show that the application of IEMG can effectively improve the economy of regional energy supply.

This study examines the causal relationships between interest rates in the Korean financial market using a vector error correction model (VECM) and a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network, a novel approach in this context, identifies two distinct transmission channels: one led by call rates (reflecting monetary policy) and another by 10-year Treasury bond yields (reflecting fiscal policy). While the call rate channel aligns with traditional views, affecting bank lending rates, corporate bond spreads, and commercial paper rates, the 10-year Treasury yield channel highlights a separate fiscal policy transmission mechanism, influencing commercial paper rates indirectly through 30-year Treasury yields and directly impacting merchant bank lending rates. This finding suggests that fiscal intervention could potentially interfere with monetary policy, emphasizing the need for coordinated macroeconomic policy measures. The study also emphasizes the role of 10-year Treasury bonds as a benchmark in the Korean bond market, reflecting medium- to long-term economic outlooks and serving as the underlying asset for various derivatives.

Oral squamous cell carcinoma often arises from an oral potentially malignant disorder called oral leukoplakia (OL). With this work we aimed to develop a novel data-driven predictive model based on gene expression profiles to distinguish OL patients who underwent malignant transformation from those who did not. We used the Tree Augmented Naïve (TAN) Bayes classifier to predict the posterior probability of having oral cancer given the data. 86 patients were included with a median follow-up of 7.11 years. Fifty-one patients (51/86; 59%) underwent malignant transformation. We found that 16 genes were predictors of oral cancer in patients with OL and these included SLC7A11, SPINK6, SERPINA12, VIT, ATP1B3, CST6, FLRT2, ELMOD1, AZGP1, RNASE13, DIO2, ECM1, CYP4F11, SYTL4, AKR1C1, and AKR1C3. In conclusion, we showed that Bayesian gene networks are a data-driven approach which could be used also in other predictor models in oncology.

Lysine is the first limiting essential amino acid in rice because it is present in the lowest quantity compared to all the other amino acids. Amino acids are the building block of proteins and play an essential role in maintaining the human body’s healthy functioning. Rice is a staple food for large proportion of the global population, thus increasing the lysine content in rice will improve its nutritional value. In this paper, we studied the lysine biosynthesis pathway in rice (Oryza Sativa) to identify the regulators of the lysine reporter gene LYSA (LOC_Os02g24354). Genetically intervening at the regulators has the potential to increase the overall lysine content in rice. We modeled the lysine biosynthesis pathway in rice seedlings under normal and saline (NaCl) stress conditions using Bayesian networks. We estimated the model parameters using experimental data and identified the gene DAPF(LOC_Os12g37960) as a positive regulator of the lysine reporter gene LYSA under both normal and saline stress conditions. Based on this analysis, we conclude that the gene DAPF is a potent candidate for genetic intervention. Upregulating DAPF using methods such as CRISPR-Cas9 has the potential to upregulate the lysine reporter gene LYSA and increase the overall lysine content in rice.

The ability to smell is crucial for most species as it enables the detection of environmental threats like smoke, fosters social interactions, and contributes to the sensory evaluation of food and eating behavior. The high prevalence of smell disturbances throughout the life span calls for a continuous effort to improve tools for quick and reliable assessment of olfactory function. Odor-dispensing pens, called Sniffin' Sticks, are an established method to deliver olfactory stimuli during diagnostic evaluation. We tested the suitability of a Bayesian adaptive algorithm (QUEST) to estimate olfactory sensitivity using Sniffin' Sticks by comparing QUEST sensitivity thresholds with those obtained using a procedure based on an established standard staircase protocol. Thresholds were measured twice with both procedures in two sessions (Test and Retest). Overall, both procedures exhibited considerable overlap with QUEST displaying slightly higher test-retest correlations, less variability between measurements, and reduced testing duration. Notably, participants were more frequently presented with the highest concentration during the QUEST which may foster adaptation and habituation effects. We conclude that further research is required to better understand and optimize the procedure for assessment of olfactory performance.

The smart grid system, an improvised form of the traditional grid, is considered a critical cyber-physical system. Due to its complex combination of smart and legacy technologies, this technology is characterized by a wide range of features such as full duplex communication, advanced metering infrastructure, remote monitoring, and control. However, despite this system’s substantial environmental and socio-economic impact on modern life, it poses severe security vulnerabilities due to its integration and interconnected and interdependent cyber-physical components. Based on the rapid development of cyber-physical systems (CPS), academics and industries have investigated relevant techniques to enhance and strengthen the security measures of the SG system. The intrusion detection system is a countermeasure, a powerful safeguard against various cyber-attacks and threats. The contribution of the IDSs to the SG paradigm is examined in this study. A comprehensive review has been presented in this study, highlighting different techniques, basic ideas, and analyses. Besides discussing the contemporary pertinent research studies, the shortcomings of the existing IDS for the SG system are also identified with a recommendation for future research direction.

High-precision ground point cloud data has a wide range of applications in various fields, and the separation of ground points from non-ground points is a crucial preprocessing step. Therefore, designing an efficient, accurate, and stable ground extraction algorithm is of great significance for improving the processing efficiency and analysis accuracy of point cloud data. The study area in this article was a Park in Guilin, Guangxi, China. The point cloud was obtained by utilizing the UAV platform. In order to improve the stability and accuracy of the Filter algorithm, this article proposed a triangular grid filter based on Slope Filter, found violation points by the spatial position relationship within each point in the triangulation network, improved KD-Tree-Based Euclidean Clustering, and applied it to the non-ground points extraction, this method has good accuracy, stability and achieves good results in separating ground points from non-ground points. At first, using Slope Filter to remove some non-ground points, to reduce the error of taking ground points as non-ground points; Secondly, established a triangular grid based on the triangular relationship between each point, the violation-triangle can determin through the grid, and then the corresponding violation points were found in the violation-triangle; Thirdly, according to the three-point collinear method to extract the regular points, used these points to extract the regular landmarks by KD-Tree-Based Euclidean Clustering and Convex Hull Algorithm; Finally, removed disperse points and irregular landmarks by Clustering Algorithm. In order to confirm the superiority of this algorithm, this article compared the filter effects of various algorithms on the study area and filtered the 15 sample data provided by ISPRS, and obtained an average error of 3. 46%. The results showed that the algorithm in this article have a high processing efficiency and accuracy, which can greatly improve the processing efficiency of point cloud data in practical applications.

A detection system, modeled in a graph, uses "detectors" on a subset of vertices to uniquely identify an "intruder" at any vertex. We consider two types of detection systems: open-locating-dominating (OLD) sets and identifying codes (ICs). An OLD set gives each vertex a unique, non-empty open neighborhood of detectors, while an IC provides a unique, non-empty closed neighborhood of detectors. We explore their fault-tolerant variants: redundant OLD (RED:OLD) sets and redundant ICs (RED:ICs), which ensure that removing/disabling at most one detector guarantees the properties of OLD sets and ICs, respectively. This paper focuses on constructing optimal RED:OLD sets and RED:ICs on the infinite king's grid, and presents the proof for the bounds on their minimum densities; [3/10, 1/3] for RED:OLD sets and [3/11, 1/3] for RED:ICs.

In South Korea, in line with the increasing need for a reliable water supply following the continuous increase in water demand, the Smart Water Grid Research Group (SWGRG) was officially launched in 2012. With the vision of providing water welfare at a national level, SWGRG incorporated information and communications technology in its water resource management, aiming at the development of core technologies for a Smart Water Grid consisting of intelligent microgrids and a demonstration and tests of the developed technologies through a field operation in a living lab. The living lab was built in Block 112 of YeongJong Island, Incheon, South Korea (area of 17.4 km2, population of 8,000), where Incheon International Airport, a hub of Northeast Asia, is located. In this location, water is supplied through a single submarine pipeline, making the place optimal for responses to water crises and the construction of a water supply system during emergencies. From 2017 to 2019, ultrasonic wave type smart water meters and IEEE 802.15.4g advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) networks were installed at 527 sites of 958 consumer areas in the living lab, and core element technologies (intelligent water source management and distribution system, smart water distribution network planning/control/operation strategy establishment, AMI network and device development, integrated management of bi-directional smart water information), and operation solutions (smart water statistics information, real-time demand-supply analysis, decision support system, real-time hydraulic pipeline network analysis, smart DB management, and water information mobile application) were developed through a field operation and testing.

The current study compared the goodness of fit and estimation precision of Bayes and maximum likelihood (ML) structural equation modeling across sample sizes. Data consisted of Markov Chain Monte Carlo generated samples of 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, 200, 250, 500, 750, 1000, and 1500 observations. The Bayes and ML methods were used to estimate a structural equation model with 40 parameters, including 12 continuous observed indicators, four latent variables, and three structural paths. Analyses were conducted with the Mplus 8.0 statistical software and were replicated 500 times with each of the 22 conditions (11 sample sizes x 2 estimation methods). Indices of model fit were the Bayes information criterion, the Tucker-Lewis index, the comparative fit index, the root mean square error of approximation, the posterior predictive p-value (for Bayes models), and the ꭓ2 test (for ML models). Results showed that as the sample size increased, both estimation methods exhibited improved model fit and enhanced estimation precision, and both methods performed well with samples of 200 or larger; however, ML demonstrated a marginally superior fit with smaller samples. These findings were not consistent with previous research and suggest that ML remains a better choice with continuous data and small samples.

The general objective of the study is to analyze food insecurity determinants mainly related to food price at macro level. The study used a time series data from the year 1988 quarter one to 2018 quarter four. Our empirical finding on the macroeconomic model show the short term consequence of food price change is positive with food security (negative with food insecurity). The long term consequence of food price change is, however, negative with food security (positive with food insecurity) at macro level. From the variance decomposition, it can be learned that the speed by which the undernourished people decrease in number in the short term because of the inflation happened is higher than the speed by which the number of undernourished people increase in the long run. At macro level, concern should be made to the supply side for food security improvement.

Background: All Payer Claims Databases (APCD) are a rich source of health information, however, race and ethnicity (R&E) data are largely missing. Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) is a common R&E imputation method, yet, validation of BISG in APCDs is lacking. We used the BISG to impute missing R&E in the Oregon APCD. Methods: BISG imputed R&E for Asian Pacific Islanders (API), Blacks, Hispanics and Whites were contrasted to the gold standard (vital statistics) and sensitivity and specificity improvements were assessed. Logistic regression examined whether missing R&E was random across patient characteristics. Results: Among 85,857 individuals in the study, 32.1% (n=27,594) had missing R&E. Missing R&E was not randomly distributed. There were higher odds of missingness among males, Whites, those age 65 and older, and commercially insured individuals. Differences in the percent missing were also found by co-morbid conditions and mortality causes. Imputing the missing R&E with BISG method improved the sensitivity to identify White, Black, API, and Hispanics. Conclusions: APCDs can benefit from enhancing missing R&E with BISG imputation to perform more robust population-health level analyses and identify inequities according to R&E without losing power or dropping non-random records with missing R&E data.

The proposed method deals with the problem of data privacy and sharing when processing personal mobility tracking data. Previous methods concentrate on producing highly detailed data on short-term and restricted areas, e.g. for autonomous driving scenarios. Another possibility consists of city-wide scales and beyond, that are used to predict general traffic flows. The presented approach takes the tracked mobility behavior of individuals to create coherent new mobility data that reflects the long-term mobility behavior of the person, guaranteeing location persistency and sound embedding within the point-of-interest structure of the observed area. After an analysis and clustering step with the original data, the area is distributed into a geospatial grid structure (H3 is used here), and the neighborhood relationships between the grids are interpreted as a graph. A feed-forward-autoencoder and a graph encoding-decoding network generate a latent space representation of the area. The original clustered data is associated with their respective H3 grids. With a greedy algorithm approach and concerning privacy strategies, new combinations of grids are top-level patterns for individual mobility behavior. Concrete locations are found and connected within the grids based on the original data. The described method is then applied to a study with 1000 participants from the city of Munich in Germany, and the results are described, showing the application of the approach in generating synthetic data, enabling further research on individual mobility behavior and patterns. The result is a sharable dataset on the same abstraction level as the input data, which makes it interesting, particularly for machine learning applications.

It is a critical issue to allocate redundancy to critical smart grid infrastructure for disaster recovery planning. In this study, we present a framework to combine statistical prediction methods and optimization models for the optimal redundancy allocation problem. First, we develop statistical simulation methods to identify critical nodes of very large-scale smart grid infrastructure based on the topological features of embedding networks, and then present a linear integer programming model based on generalized assignment problem (GAP) for redundancy allocation of critical nodes in smart grid infrastructure. The model is specifically implemented in the context of smart grid infrastructure. The findings demonstrate that the combined approach of statistical simulation and optimization effectively addresses the size limitations inherent in a sole optimization approach. Notably, the optimal solutions for redundancy allocation in very large grid systems highlight that the cost of redundancy is only a fraction of the economic losses incurred due to weather-related outages.

To ensure sustainability of the future power grid, the rate of expansion of distributed renewable energy resources (DRER) has introduced operational challenges. These includes managing transmission constraints with DRER power injection, dispatching DRER efficiently, managing system frequency and ensuring sufficient reactive power for voltage support. Coupled with the intensification of wildfires, power infrastructure across the United States faces challenges to minimize the impact to maintain system reliability and resiliency. This research embarks on a comprehensive evaluation, beginning with an in-depth historical analysis to delineate regions most susceptible to wildfires. Utilizing a multidimensional approach, the study assesses wildfire-induced risks to power grids, by integrating historical wildfire occurrences, real-time wildfire proximities, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived vegetation metrics, and system parameters, by employing Principal Component Analysis (PCA) based optimal weights, leading to the formulation of a novel risk factor model. This risk factor has the potential to be the key to ensuring the resilience of a renewable-rich smart grid when faced with a severe weather event. Our model’s applicability was further verified through an empirical assessment, selecting representative networks from diverse regions, providing insights into the geographical variability of risk factors. Ultimately, this study offers stakeholders and policymakers a comprehensive tool-set, empowering decisions regarding infrastructure investments, grid reinforcements, and strategic power rerouting to ensure consistent energy delivery using risk assessment against wildfire.

This paper is concerned with developing an efficient numerical algorithm for fast implementation of the sparse grid method for computing the $d$-dimensional integral of a given function. The new algorithm, called the MDI-SG ({\em multilevel dimension iteration sparse grid}) method, implements the sparse grid method based on a dimension iteration/reduction procedure, it does not need to store the integration points, nor does it compute the function values independently at each integration point, instead, it reuses the computation for function evaluations as much as possible by performing the function evaluations at all integration points in a cluster and iteratively along coordinate directions. It is shown numerically that the computational complexity (in terms of CPU time) of the proposed MDI-SG method is of polynomial order $O(Nd^3 )$ or better, compared to the exponential order $O(N(\log N)^{d-1})$ for the standard sparse grid method, where $N$ denotes the maximum number of integration points in each coordinate direction. As a result, the proposed MDI-SG method effectively circumvents the curse of dimensionality suffered by the standard sparse grid method for high-dimensional numerical integration.

High-penetration of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) in low voltage distribution grids, mainly photovoltaics (PV), might lead to overvoltage in the point of common coupling. Volt-VAr is one of the common control functions for DER power converters used to enhance the stability and the reliability of the voltage in the distribution system and, thus, fulfilling the network operator requirements. In this study, a centralized algorithm will provide local Volt-VAr control parameters to each PV inverter, based on the electrical grid characteristics where each equipment is installed. Since accurate information of grid characteristics is typically not available, the parametrization of the electrical grid is done using power meter data in DER location and a voltage sensitivity matrix. The algorithm has different optimization modes to both minimize voltage deviation and line current. In order to validate the effectiveness of the algorithm and its deployment in real infrastructure, it has been tested in an experimental setup with PV emulators in a set of 5-day tests. Volt-VAr control algorithm successfully adapted its parameters based on grid topology and PV inverter characteristics, achieving a voltage reduction up to 25% of the allowed voltage deviation.

From ancient time, electric grid system developed as one way direction in which users get the electricity from generators to far end. However, it is not the consumer centric as its one way process and consumer have no way to communicate to the server. Thus, with the development of digital revolution, the grid converted to smart grid and meter converted to smart meter. In smart grid, the protocol follows the bidirectional way of communication with support of consumers in the system. Recently in 2016, Jo et al. proposed the scheme for smart grid system using privacy preserving model and claimed to be efficient and secure. However, in this paper we have analyzed the scheme of Jo et al. and proved that the scheme is vulnerable to Replay attack and afterwards shows the change in protocol to withstand against this attack.

This paper presents a scenario evolution model for maritime accidents using Bayesian networks (BN) to predict the most likely causes of specific types of maritime incidents. The BN nodes encompass accident type, life loss contingency, accident severity, the quarter and time period of the accident, and the type and gross tonnage of the ships involved. We analyzed 5,660 global maritime accidents from 2005 to 2020. Using Netica software, we constructed a Tree Augmented Network (TAN) model, accounting for interdependencies among risk influencing factors. We validated the results through sensitivity analysis and historical accident records. Forward causal inference and reverse diagnostic inference were then performed on each node variable to investigate the accident development trend and evolution process under predetermined conditions. The findings indicate that the model can effectively predict the likelihood of various accident scenarios under specific conditions, as well as the extrapolation of accident consequences. Forward causal reasoning reveals that general cargo ships with a gross tonnage of 1-18,500 t are most likely to experience collision, grounding, and stranding accidents in the first quarter. Reverse diagnostic reasoning indicates that during early morning hours, container ships, general cargo ships, and chemical ships with a tonnage of 1-18,500 t are less likely to involve life loss in the event of collision accidents.

In many Bayesian computations, first, we obtain the expression of the joint distribution of all the unknown variables given the observed data. In general, this expression is not separable in those variables. Thus, obtaining their marginals for each variable and computing the expectations are difficult and costly. This problem becomes even more difficult in high dimensional quandaries, which is an important issue in inverse problems. We may then try to propose a surrogate expression with which we can do approximate computations. Often a separable expression approximation can be useful enough. The Variational Bayesian Approximation (VBA) is a technique that approximates the joint distribution $p$ with an easier, for example separable, one $q$ by minimizing Kullback–Leibler Divergence $KL(q|p)$. When $q$ is separable in all the variables, the approximation is also called Mean Field Approximation (MFA) and so $q$ is the product of the approximated marginals. A first standard and general algorithm is alternate optimization of $KL(q|p)$ with respect to $q_i$. A second general approach is its optimization in the Riemannian manifold. However, in this paper, for practical reasons, we consider the case where $p$ is in the exponential family and so is $q$. For this case, $KL(q|p)$ becomes a function of the parameters $\thetab$ of the exponential family. Then, we can use any other optimization algorithm to obtain those parameters. In this paper, we compare three optimization algorithms: standard alternate optimization, a gradient-based algorithm and a natural gradient algorithm and study their relative performances on three examples.

The adoption of Machine Learning (ML) for building emulators for complex physical processes has seen an exponential rise in the recent years. While neural networks are good function approximators, optimizing the hyper-parameters of the network to reach a global minimum is not trivial, and often needs human knowl- edge and expertise. In this light, automatic ML or autoML methods have gained large interest as they automate the process of network hyper-parameter tuning. In addition, Neural Architecture Search (NAS) has shown promising outcomes for improving model performance. While autoML methods have grown in popularity for image, text and other applications, their effectiveness for high-dimensional, complex scientific datasets remains to be investigated. In this work, a data driven emulator for turbulence closure terms in the context of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) models is trained using Artificial Neural Networks and an autoML frame- work based on Bayesian Optimization, incorporating priors to jointly optimize the hyper-parameters as well as conduct a full neural network architecture search to converge to a global minima, is proposed. Additionally, we compare the effect of using different network weight initializations and optimizers such as ADAM, SGDM and RMSProp, to explore the best performing setting. Weight and function space similarities during the optimization trajectory are investigated, and critical differences in the learning process evolution are noted and compared to theory. We observe ADAM optimizer and Glorot initialization consistently performs better, while RMSProp outperforms SGDM as the latter appears to have been stuck at a local minima. Therefore, this autoML BayesOpt framework provides a means to choose the best hyper-parameter settings for a given dataset.

Advances in remote sensing have led to use of satellite-derived rainfall products to complement the sparse rain gauge data. Although globally derived and some regional bias corrected, these products often show large discrepancies with ground measurements attributed to local and external factors that require systematic consideration. Decreasing rain gauge network however inhibits continuous validation of these products. We propose to deal with this problem by the use of Bayesian approach to merge the existing historical rain gauge information to create a consistent satellite rainfall data that can be used for climate studies. Monthly Bayesian bias correction is applied to the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS v2) data to reduce systematic errors using a corresponding gridded (0.05°) rain gauge data over East Africa for a period of 33 (1981–2013) years of which 22 years are utilized to derive error fields which are then applied to an independent CHIRPS data for 11 years for validation. The bias correction is spatially and temporally assessed during the rainfall wet months of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and October–December (OND) in East Africa. Results show significant reduction of systematic errors at both monthly and yearly scales and harmonization of their cumulative distributions. Monthly statistics showed a reduction of RMSD (29–56)% and MAE (28–60)% and an increase of correlations (2–32) %, while yearly ones showed reductions of RMSD (9-23)%, and MAE (7–27)% and increase of correlations (4–77)% for MAM months, reduction of RMSD (15–35)% and MAE (16–41)% and increase in correlations (5–16)% for JJA months, and reduction of RMSD (3–35)% and MAE (9–32)% and increase of correlations (3–65)% for OND months. Systematic errors of corrected data were influenced by local processes especially over Lake Victoria and high elevated areas. Large-scale circulations induced errors were mainly during JJA and OND rainfall seasons and were reduced by the separation of anomalous years during training. The proposed approach is recommended for generating long-term data for climate studies where consistencies of errors can be assumed.

In this paper we perform numerous numerical studies for the problem of low-rank matrix completion. We compare the Bayesian approaches and a recently introduced de-biased estimator which provides a useful way to build confidence intervals of interest. From a theoretical viewpoint, the de-biased estimator comes with a sharp minimax-optimal rate of estimation error whereas the Bayesian approach reaches this rate with an additional logarithmic factor. Our simulation studies show originally interesting results that the de-biased estimator is just as good as the Bayesian estimators. Moreover, Bayesian approaches are much more stable and can outperform the de-biased estimator in the case of small samples. However, we also find that the length of the confidence intervals revealed by the de-biased estimator for an entry is absolutely shorter than the length of the considered credible interval. These suggest further theoretical studies on the estimation error and the concentration for Bayesian methods as they are being quite limited up to present.

Establishing an accurate mathematical model is the foundation of simulating the motion of marine vehicles and structures, and it is the basis of modeling-based control design. System identification from observed input-output data is a practical and powerful method. However, for modeling objects with different characteristics and known information, a single modeling framework can hardly meet the requirements of model establishment. Moreover, there are some challenges in system identification, such as parameter drift and overfitting. In this work, three robust methods are proposed for generating ocean hydrodynamic models based on Bayesian regression. Two Bayesian techniques, semi-conjugate linear regression and noisy input Gaussian process regression, are used for parametric and nonparametric gray-box modeling and black-box modeling. The experimental free-running tests of the KVLCC2 ship model and a multi-freedom wave energy converter (WEC) are used to validate the proposed Bayesian models. The results demonstrate that the proposed schemes for system identification of the ship and WEC have good generalization ability and robustness. Finally, the developed modeling methods are evaluated considering the aspects required conditions, operating characteristics and prediction accuracy.

The paper proposes a methodological way to compensate the imbalance between energy generation and consumption using the battery block of electric vehicles as energy reservoir through the well-known Vehicle to Grid system (V2G). The method is based on a simulation process developed by the authors that take into consideration the daily fluctuations of energy consumption as well as the power level generated by an energy source, either conventional, renewable or hybrid. The study shows that for very large electric vehicle fleet the system renders non-viable, since the remaining energy in the battery block to let the electric vehicle usable for running during daytime avoids to compensating for the energy grid imbalance, only allowing to cover a percentage of the energy imbalance, which the proposed methodology may optimize. The analysis of the proposed methodology also shows the viability of the system when being applied to a small fleet of electric vehicles, not only compensating for the energy imbalance but also preserving the required energy in the battery of the electric vehicle to make it run. The method allows predicting the optimum size of electric vehicle battery, which depends on the energy generation level, coverage factor of the energy imbalance and size of the electric vehicle fleet.

Smart grids are seeing an increase in renewable energy and an enormous introduction of advanced power electronics, increasing the number of disturbance sources. This requires improving the accuracy of measurement systems capable of acquiring data for use in power system monitoring applications. Rogowski Coils (RCs) and Merging Units (MUs) are being widely deployed in controlling, metering, and monitoring of digital power systems. Because the performance of digital measurement devices has a direct influence on power measurement accuracy, it is critical to perform a laboratory calibration of these measurement instruments before they are installed in any project. To determine the magnitude and phase displacement errors of the RC+MU under normal and abnormal operating conditions, this article presents a comprehensive laboratory digital calibration system constructed from precise, readily available commercial products such as a fluxgate current transducer and a National Instrument. In addition, the analysis of measurement chain is affected by sources of uncertainty is discussed. The tests yield findings that are consistent with the relevant standards.

This paper focuses on the combination of the method of moments and the wire-grid approximation as an effective computational technique for modeling symmetrical antennas with low computational cost and quite accurate results. The criteria and conditions for the use of wire-grid surface approximation from various sources are presented together with new recommendations for modeling symmetrical antenna structures using the wire-grid approximation. These recommendations are used to calculate the characteristics of biconical and horn antennas at different frequencies. The results obtained using different grid and mesh settings are compared to those obtained analytically. Moreover, the results are compared to those obtained using the finite difference time domain numerical method, as well as the measured ones. All results are shown to be in a good agreement. The used recommendations for building a symmetrical wire-grid of those symmetrical antenna elements provided the most advantageous parameters of the grid and mesh settings and the wire radius, which are able to give a quite accurate results with low computational cost. Additionally, the known equal area rule was modified for a rectangular grid form. The obtained radiation patterns of a conductive plate using both the original rule and the modified one are compared with the electrodynamic analysis results. It is shown that the use of the modified rule is more accurate when using a rectangle grid form.

As a consequence of the increasing share of renewable energies and sector coupling technologies, new approaches are needed for the study, planning, and control of modern energy systems. Such new structures may add extra stress to the electric grid, as is the case with heat pumps and electrical vehicles. Therefore, the optimal performance of the system must be estimated considering the constraints imposed by the different sectors. In this research, a dispatch optimization method with an iterative grid constraint generation, decoupled from the linear unit commitment problem, is employed. From the considered scenarios, it was found that in a typical German neighborhood with 150 households, PV penetration of ∼5kWp per household can lead to curtailment of ∼60MWh per year due to line loading. Furthermore, the proposed method eliminates grid violations due to the addition of new sectors reducing the curtailment up to 60%. With the optimization of the heat pump operation, an increase of 7% of the self-consumption was achieved with similar results for the combination of battery systems and electrical vehicles. In conclusion, a safer and optimal operation of a complex energy system is fulfilled. Safer control strategies and more accurate plant sizing could be derived from this work.

In the present article we describe a few simple and efficient finite volume type schemes on moving grids in one spatial dimension for the sake of simplicity. The underlying finite volume scheme is conservative and it is accurate up to the second order in space. The main novelty consists in the motion of the grid. This new dynamic aspect can be used to resolve better the areas with high solution gradients or any other special features. No interpolation procedure is employed, thus an unnecessary solution smearing is avoided. Thus, our method enjoys excellent conservation properties. The resulting grid is completely redistributed according the choice of the so-called monitor function. Several more or less universal choices of the monitor function are provided. Finally, the performance of the proposed algorithm is illustrated on several examples stemming from the simple linear advection to the simulation of complex shallow water waves. We believe that the techniques described in our paper can be beneficially used to model tsunami wave propagation and run-up.

In Zambia, three feasibility studies have been conducted to assess the potential of wind energy for power generation. However, these studies did not investigate the capability of local support industries to manufacture wind turbine blades and towers. This study aimed to investigate and profile the capability of Zambian industries to manufacture wind turbine blades and towers. The study used a mixed-method approach to collect data; this utilized qualitative and quantitative approaches. The population of Zambian industries was collected from the Zambia Association of Manufacturers based on the registered members. This data was used to define the population for the study; the population was arranged into three strata whose characteristics are homogeneous within the stratum. Due to the low population, the study was conducted on the whole population. The qualitative data was collected from each stratum using a quantitative data collection tool developed for each stratum and analyzed. The study considered the capability of manufacturing companies based on wind potential results for Class III and Class IV, which exist in some sites. The results have revealed that on an as-is basis, no company in Zambia can manufacture WT blades and towers unless there is a complete overhaul of some companies or total investment in new infrastructure and equipment. The findings are useful for stakeholders involved in developing the wind power sector in Zambia.

The optimization of the energy grid is a critical task for ensuring a sustainable and efficient energy future. Deep machine learning techniques have the potential to improve energy grid optimization by predicting energy demands and supplies, optimizing energy production and distribution, and detecting and preventing fraud. However, there are also several challenges associated with the use of deep machine learning in energy grid optimization. These include the lack of standardized datasets and data quality issues, interpretability and explain-ability of machine learning models, ethical and social implications of using machine learning, and integration with existing energy infrastructure and regulatory frameworks. Having a clear understanding that continued research and developments in deep learning applications to energy field are crucial for achieving a sustainable and efficient energy future. This paper therefore reviewed existing literature for challenges and opportunities associated with deep machine learning in energy grid optimization; and highlights the importance of continued research and development in the field. The paper found out that opportunities for future research in deep machine learning for energy grid optimization include advancements in machine learning algorithms and techniques, development of new datasets and data collection methods, integration of machine learning with other emerging technologies. It also established needs for collaborative research and public-private partnerships.

ABSTRACT Background Ubiquitination plays an important role in protein post-translational processes and has been found to be involved in a number of regulatory functions including proteasome degradation, DNA repair, transcription, signal transduction, endocytosis, and sorting. As the identification of ubiquitination site is critical to furthering our understanding of the mechanism of ubiquitination, various experimental and machine learning methods have been used to conduct this task. It has been an important but challenging task to improve the accuracy of ubiquitination site prediction. In this research, we explore the possibility of improving the prediction performance of machine learning by incorporating grid search in the training process. Method We developed grid search procedures for each of six widely used machine learning methods including NB, LR, DT, SVM, LASSO, and KNN, and applied them to ubiquitination site prediction using the six PCP datasets that were previously developed. For each of the ML methods, we developed a set of values for each of the tunable hyperparameters available to the method. These sets of values then can be combined to form a large grid of hyperparameter settings, and each of these settings is used in the grid search. We integrated 5-fold cross-validation in grid search to train and test ML models and applied an additional independent validation procedure by conducting a pre-training 80-20 sample split. We evaluated the performance of the six methods by comparing them side by side for each of the six datasets. We also compared the grid search results with the results that were previously published without doing grid search. To optimize the prediction performance, we trained 1.1 million ML models in total through grid search. Results We compared the overall prediction performance of these six methods, as well as their prediction performance when working with balanced vs. imbalanced data, and large-scale vs. small-scale data. From the perspective of dataset, we find that the overall performance of every PCP dataset has been significantly improved in this study compared to the previous study, with the percentage increase of the average AUC of all six datasets ranging from 7.9% (PCP-4) up to 17.0% (PCP-1). From the perspective of method, we find that three out of four methods significantly benefit from grid search comparing to their previously published non-grid search results, with the maximum AUC improvement as high as 47% (LASSO on PCP-5), 43.3% (NB on PCP-1), and 33.7% (SVM on PCP-6). SVM overall ranks number one, followed by KNN as the number two performer based on their average AUCs on all datasets. But these two also ranked the top two (KNN 76 days and SVM 15 days) in terms of the total running time that they need to do grid search. We also find that SVM, KNN, and DT tend to handle small-scale and imbalanced datasets better, while LR, and LASSO are doing well with large-scale and balanced datasets. NB is more sensitive to data imbalance while less sensitive to the size of a dataset. Conclusions Our results show that using grid search has improved the performance of ubiquitination prediction significantly. We find that the performance of a method is closely related to its hyperparameter setting and the type of data it handles. Even though SVM is on average an outperformer, none of the methods can provide the best performance for all datasets. When sufficient computing resources are well accessible, grid search is an effective way to identify both a top performing model for a machine learning method and a suitable machine learning method for a particular dataset.

Because of the significant enabling role smart meters can play in securing the transition towards sustainable energy distribution, the paper provides insights to support smart meters implementation projects. Energy utilities must propose adequate solutions to manage grid-upgrading projects and, in the meantime, increase efficiency levels. Based on empirical data analysis the paper provides insights aimed at maximize probability of success of smart meters projects. Results show common patterns of variables that may support project undertakers, policymakers and scholar when it comes to analyze projects to predict to maximize opportunities. For smart meters projects to succeed, regulatory stability is essential as long-period investments grids produce benefits for energy utilities, and for society.

Sparse direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation of wideband signal has attracted widespread researches for its unique high-resolution performance. Numerous existing methods based on sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) don’t possess the ability to enhance sparsity even if they have already enjoyed high favor among sparse recovery approaches. In view of this, we propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian prior framework that enhance sparsity evidently and derive its corresponding iterative algorithm. On analysis, the computational complexity of the iterative are less than most existing other state-of-the-art algorithms. Not only that, proposed method possesses high angular estimation precision and sparsity performance by utilizing joint sparsity of multiple measure vector (MMV) models. Last but not least, the method obtains the ability to stabilize the estimated values between different frequencies or snapshots such that flat spatial spectrum. Extensive simulation results are presented to prove the superior performance of our methods

We find at least 4 quantum properties that are indeed universal in some number systems; and we can use them for quantum consciousness. Using the sets B={0,1}, N, Z, or Q has the +4 quantum properties that one can trust, as archetypes of easy communication to friends and foes, to ignoranti or cognoscenti, and for quantum computing. This paper proposes the use of Bayesian geometry to reduce the space of possible results, reducing or increasing initial beliefs by successive experimentation. This is exemplified in biology and mathematics, and can be applied to physics and other sciences. The conclusion is that an experimental fact can be absolutely verified. Any mathematical choice (as verified by computers) militating against R=Q, is under an absolutely low chance to succeed. Infinitesimals are denied based on 3^16 independent factors. This is not a probabilistic result, but based on reduction of the Bayes geometry for updating beliefs. This work applies to non-probabilistic and unknown phenomena, such as those found in oscillations (neutrino, health), evolution, and quantum computing, denies Gödel's uncertainty, and solves the liar's paradox by reflection. This connects different scientific fields with one another, in an internet, i.e., in a network of connections of multiple open networks, using the set Q, resembling a hologram, and includes entanglement.

The description of stellar interiors remains as a big challenge for the nuclear astrophysics community. The consolidated knowledge is restricted to density regions around the saturation of hadronic matter $\rho _{0} = 2.8\times 10^{14} {\rm\ g\ cm^{-3}}$, regimes where our nuclear models are successfully applied. As one moves towards higher densities and extreme conditions up to five to twenty times $\rho_{0}$, little can be said about the microphysics of such obejects. Here, we employ an MCMC strategy in order to access the variability of polytropic three-pircewised models for neutron star equation of states. With a fixed description of the hadronic matter we explore a variety of models for the high density regimes leading to stellar masses up to 2.5 $M_{\odot}$. In addition, we also discuss the use of a Bayesian power regression model with heteroscedastic error. The set of EoS from LIGO was used as inputs and treated as data set for testing case.

This pandemic of COVID-19 is tedious to control. The only lockdown is the way to stop the spread of this infection. Conventional health care is facing a real challenge to operate. Primarily the challenge is to provide health care support for COVID-19 patients with limited resources and continue the health care services like earlier.Perhaps, this challenge is the same but magnitude is different from different geographical locations around the globe. In this article, we presented a Bayesian algorithm with the Code to predict cancer death due to COVID-19. This code is possible to run at different time points and different geographical locations around the world. This code will help us to get the best strategy and shift the treatment option for cancer treatment. The model would provide physicians with an objective tool for counseling and decision making at different hotspots and small areas to implement.

This paper investigates an inverse problem of option pricing in the extended Black--Scholes model. We identify the model coefficients from the measured data and attempt to find arbitrage opportunities in financial markets using a Bayesian inference approach. The posterior probability density function of the parameters is computed from the measured data. The statistics of the unknown parameters are estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which explores the posterior state space. The efficient sampling strategy of MCMC enables us to solve inverse problems by the Bayesian inference technique. Our numerical results indicate that the Bayesian inference approach can simultaneously estimate the unknown drift and volatility coefficients from the measured data.

Evidence-based data for endometriosis management are limited. Experiments are excluded without adequate animal models. Data are limited to symptomatic women and occasional observations. Hormonal medical therapy cannot be blinded if recognised by the patient. Randomised controlled trials are not realistic for surgery since a variable disease with low numbers. Each diagnosis and treatment is an experiment with an outcome and experience is Bayesian updating from the past. If the experience of many is similar, this has more value than an opinion. The combined experience of a group of endometriosis surgeons was used to discuss problems in the management of endometriosis. Considering endometriosis as several genetically/epigenetically different diseases is important for medical therapy. Imaging cannot exclude endometriosis and diagnostic accuracy is limited for superficial lesions, deep lesions, and cystic corpora lutea. Surgery should not be avoided for emotional reasons. Shifting infertility treatment to IVF without considering fertility surgery is questionable. The concept of complete excision should be reconsidered. Surgeons should introduce quality control and teaching should move to explain why it is done. The perception of information has a personal bias. These are the major problems in the management of endometriosis identified by the combined experience of endometriosis surgeons.

Chronic non-cancer pain is a highly debilitating condition affecting approximately 20% of the global population. Chronic pain may lead to significant physical disability, emotional distress, social isolation and financial burden. Whilst^. pharmacological therapies remain the cornerstone of pain management in non-cancerous chronic pain, factors including the current opioid epidemic have led to non-pharmacological techniques becoming a more attractive proposition. We explored the prevalence of medical device use and their treatment efficacy in non-cancer pain management. A systematic methodology was developed, peer reviewed and published in PROSPERO (CRD42021235384). Key words of medical device, pain management devices, chronic pain, lower back pain, back pain, leg pain and chronic pelvic pain using Science direct, PubMed, Web of Science, PROSPERO, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PorQuest and ClinicalTrials.gov. All clinical trials, epidemiology and mixed methods studies that reported the use of medical devices for non-cancer chronic pain management published between the 1^st of January 1990 and the 30^th of April 2022 were included. 13 studies were included in systematic review, of these 6 were used in the meta-analysis with 173 participants. Our meta-analysis for pain reduction in each study showed that transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation combined with instrument-assisted soft tissue mobilization treatment and pulsed electromagnetic therapy produced significant treatment on chronic lower back pain patients. Pooled evidence revealed the use of medical device related interventions resulted in 0.7 degree of pain reduction under a 0-10 scale. Significant improvement in disability scores, with a 7.44 degree reduction in disability level compared to a placebo using a 50 score range was also seen. The application of medical devices in patients with chronic pain has gained popularity due to increasingly cost effective techniques, minimally invasiveness and greater awareness of risks associated with pharmacological management. Our analysis has shown that the optimal use of medical devices in a sustainable manner requires further extensive research, needing larger cohort studies with greater gender parity, in a more diverse range of geographical locations.

The fatigue life of concrete is affected by many interwoven factors whose effect is nonlinear. Be-cause of its unique self-learning ability and strong generalization capability, the Bayesian regu-larized backpropagation neural network (BR-BPNN) is proposed to predict concrete behavior in tensile fatigue. The optimal model was determined through various combinations of network parameters. The average relative impact value (ARIV) was constructed to evaluate the correla-tion between fatigue life and its influencing parameters (maximum stress level Smax, stress ratio R, static strength f, failure probability P). ARIV results were also compared with other factor as-sessment methods (weight equation and multiple linear regression analyses). Using BR-BPNN, S-N curves were then obtained for the combinations of R=0.1, 0.2, 0.5; f=5, 6, 7MPa; P=5%, 50%, 95%. The tensile fatigue results under different testing conditions were finally compared for compatibility. It was concluded that Smax has the most significant negative effect on fatigue life; the degree of influence of R, P, and f, which positively correlate with fatigue life, decreases suc-cessively. ARIV is confirmed as a feasible way to analyze the importance of parameters and could be recommended for future applications. The tensile fatigue performance of plain concrete under different stress states (flexural tension, axial tension, splitting tension) does not differ sig-nificantly. Besides utilizing the valuable fatigue test data scattered in the literature, insights gained from this work could provide a reference for subsequent fatigue test program design and fatigue evaluation.

Rapid post-earthquake damage diagnosis of bridges can guide decision-making for emergency response management and recovery. This can be facilitated using digital technologies to remove the barriers of manual post-event inspections. Prior mechanics-based Finite Element (FE) models can be used for post-event response simulation using the measured ground motions at nearby stations; however, the damage assessment outcomes would suffer from uncertainties in structural and soil material properties, input excitations, etc. For instrumented bridges, these uncertainties can be reduced by integrating sensory data with prior models through a model updating approach. This study presents a sequential Bayesian model updating technique, through which a linear/nonlinear FE model, including soil-structure interaction effects, and the foundation input motions are jointly identified from measured acceleration responses. The efficacy of the presented model updating technique is first examined through a numerical verification study. Then, seismic data recorded from the San Rogue Canyon Bridge in California are used for a real-world case study. Comparison between the free-field and the foundation input motions reveals valuable information regarding the soil-structure interaction effects at the bridge site. Moreover, the reasonable agreement between the recorded and estimated bridge responses shows the potentials of the presented model updating technique for real-world applications. The updated FE model is considered as the digital twin of the bridge and can be used to analyze the bridge and monitor the structural response at element, section, and fiber levels to diagnose the location and severity of any potential damage mechanism.

Construction projects are usually operating in a complex and dynamic environment in which the accumulation of many interrelated factors causes high uncertainty. Construction projects are complex and frequently involve substantial uncertainties including process complicatedness, intricate organization structure, dynamic environment, and financial strain. The study aims to categorize the influencing factors into three groups, namely construction project system, economic-market climate, and external environment. It attempts to adopt a novel analysis tool to examine the relationship between the project cost and multiple influencing factors by using Bayesian SEM. While the Bayesian SEM method has been receiving increasing attention in exploring the relationship between latent variables, construction studies still heavily rely on the covariance-based SEM approach. This study introduces several advantages of Bayesian SEM that make it more flexible and powerful than covariance-based SEM and provides the foundation of Bayesian SEM estimation and inference by illustrating this method in a project cost application.

Construction projects are usually operating in a complex and dynamic environment in which the accumulation of many interrelated factors causes high uncertainty. Construction projects are complex and frequently involve substantial uncertainties including process complicatedness, intricate organization structure, dynamic environment, and financial strain. The study aims to categorize the influencing factors into three groups, namely construction project system, economic-market climate, and external environment. It attempts to adopt a novel analysis tool to examine the relationship between the project cost and multiple influencing factors by using Bayesian SEM. While the Bayesian SEM method has been receiving increasing attention in exploring the relationship between latent variables, construction studies still heavily rely on the covariance-based SEM approach. This study introduces several advantages of Bayesian SEM that make it more flexible and powerful than covariance-based SEM and provides the foundation of Bayesian SEM estimation and inference by illustrating this method in a project cost application.

Bayesian analysis for masked data under competing risk frameworks is studied for the purpose of assessing the impact of covariates on the hazard functions when the failure time is exactly observed for some subjects but only known to lie in an interval of time for the remaining subjects. Such data, known as partly interval-censored data, usually result from periodic inspection. Dirichlet and Gamma processes are assumed as priors for masking probabilities and baseline hazards. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is employed for the implementation of the Bayesian approach. The effectiveness of the proposed model is tested through numerical studies, including simulated and real data sets.

The electrification of rural areas of the planet has become one of the greatest challenges for sustainability. In fact, it would be the key to guaranteeing development for the poorest of the planet, but from which most of the raw material for the food market derives. The paradigm of centralized production is not applicable in these territories, because the distribution network would involve unjustifiable costs. For this reason, studies have multiplied to ensure the energy supply, especially electricity, of off-grid utilities, to guarantee energy autonomy while reducing the dependence on specialist assistance for the management of the system. In this work, a hybrid system (HRES) is proposed that combines the exploitation of solar energy with that of the wind through the use of static devices, in order to improve the system's availability and limit the cost of operation and maintenance.

The growing number of the accessed energy-efficient frequency conversion air conditioners is likely to generate a large number of harmonics on the power grid. The following shortage in the reactive power of peak load may trigger voltage collapse. Hence, this conflicts with people’s expectations for a cozy environment. Concerning the problems mentioned above, an active management scheme is put forward to balance the electricity use and the normal operation of air conditioning systems. To be specific, schemes to suppress the low voltage ride through (LVRT) and harmonic are designed firstly. Then to deaden the adverse effects caused by nonlinear group load running on the grid, and to prevent the unexpected accidents engendered from grid malfunction, the dynamic sensing information obtained by an online monitor is analyzed, which can be seen as an actively supervise mechanism. The combined application of active and passive filtering technology is studied as well. Thirdly, the new energy storage is accessed reliably to cope with peak-cutting or grid breaking emergencies, and the fuzzy control algorithm is researched. Finally, system feasibility is verified by functional modules co-operation simulation, and active management target is achieved under scientific and reasonable state-of-charge (SOC) management strategy.

Smart grid software interconnects multiple Engineering disciplines (power systems, communication, software and hardware technology, instrumentation, big data, etc.). The software architecture is an evolving concept in smart grid systems in which systematic architecture development is a challenging process. The architecture has to realize the complex legacy power grid systems and cope up with current Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). The distributed generation in smart grid environment expects the software architecture to be distributed and to enable local control. Smart grid architecture should also be modular, flexible and adaptable to technology upgrades. In this paper, the authors have made a comprehensive review on architecture for smart grids. An in depth analysis of layered and agent based architectures is presented and compared under various domains.

Continuous greenhouse gas emissions are causing global warming and impacting the habitats of many animals. Researchers in the field of electric power are making efforts to mitigate this situation. Operating and maintaining the power grid in an economic, low-carbon, and stable is challenging. To address the issue, we propose a grid dispatching technique that combines prediction technology, reinforcement learning, and optimization technology. Prediction technology can forecast future power demand and solar power generation, while reinforcement learning and optimization technology can make charging and discharging decisions for energy storage devices based on current and future grid conditions. In the power system, the aggregation of distributed energy resources increases uncertainty, particularly due to the fluctuating generation of renewable energy. This requires the use of advanced predictive control techniques to ensure long-term economic and decarbonization goals. In this paper, we present a real-time dispatching framework that integrates deep learning-based prediction, reinforcement learning-based decision-making, and stochastic optimization techniques. The framework can rapidly adapt to target uncertainty caused by various factors in real-time data distribution and control processes. The proposed framework achieved global Champion in the NeurIPS Challenge 2022 competition and demonstrated its effectiveness in practical scenarios of intelligent building energy management.

Limited accessibility in some parts of Indonesia causes difficulties in logistic distribution, especially for emergency and medical supplies. Emerging drone cargo technology is a potential solution to improve logistic distribution in those areas. However, implementing drone cargo technology involves unknown risks, both in technical and non-technical aspects. Since data on drone operations in Indonesia is limited, a new method is explored to build a Bayesian Network (BN) model for risk analysis of drone crashes in Indonesia’s outermost and underdeveloped areas. The method optimizes the modelling process, in which significant risk factors are selected based on three drone operator companies’ experiences, which include wind speed, rain intensity, and system component failure or malfunction. Real wind speed and rain probability data are then implemented in the model. The operator’s data shows that wind speed contributes to drone crashes, which can be appropriately modelled in the BN model. The model produced a probability of safe operation of 94.1%, comparable to the annual operator’s data. The result shows that most operations are safe, with a minimum case of crashing and no case of harming human life.

This paper presents the five-parameter Exponentiated Weibull Weibull (EWW) distribution with Weibull base failure rate parameterization, developed to model the dropout times of students in an online class module. Parameters of the model were estimated using both Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian estimation procedures to determine the most effective estimation method. Simulation results indicate that, across various hazard types and censoring levels, Bayesian estimates are more accurate and precise than Maximum Likelihood estimates. Real-life data analysis of online students module presentation supports these findings, showing significantly lower standard deviations for Bayesian estimates compared to Maximum Likelihood estimates, highlighting the efficiency of Bayesian estimation for the EWW distribution. Additionally, a comparative goodness-of-fit analysis demonstrated that the EWW distribution better fits the student dropout times dataset than Weibull Weibull (WW), Weibull Exponential (WE), and Exponential Weibull (EW) distributions. The median dropout time estimated using the EWW distribution is 24 days, suggesting that instructors should closely monitor student attendance around this period.