Algorithms for machine learning have found extensive use in numerous fields and applications. One important aspect of effectively utilizing these algorithms is tuning the hyperparameters to match the specific task at hand. The selection and configuration of hyperparameters directly impact the performance of machine learning models. Achieving optimal hyperparameter settings often requires a deep understanding of the underlying models and the appropriate optimization techniques. While there are many automatic optimization techniques available, each with its own advantages and disadvantages, this article focuses on hyperparameter optimization for well-known machine learning models. It explores cutting-edge optimization methods and provides guidance on applying them to different machine learning algorithms. The article also presents real-world applications of hyperparameter optimization by conducting tests on spatial data collections for landslide susceptibility mapping. Based on the experiment's results, both Bayesian optimization and metaheuristic algorithms showed promising performance compared to baseline algorithms. For example, the metaheuristic algorithm improved the overall accuracy of the random forest model. Additionally, Bayesian algorithms, such as Gaussian processes, performed well for models like KNN and SVM. The paper thoroughly discusses the reasons behind the efficiency of these algorithms. By successfully identifying appropriate hyperparameter configurations, this research paper aims to assist researchers, spatial data analysts, and industrial users in developing machine learning models more effectively. The findings and insights provided in this paper can contribute to enhancing the performance and applicability of machine learning algorithms in various domains.

Machine learning forks into three main branches such as supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and reinforcement learning where reinforcement learning is much potential to artificial intelligence (AI) applications because it solves real problems by progressive process in which possible solutions are improved and finetuned continuously. The progressive approach, which reflects ability of adaptation, is appropriate to the real world where most events occur and change continuously and unexpectedly. Moreover, data is getting too huge for supervised learning and unsupervised learning to draw valuable knowledge from such huge data at one time. Bayesian optimization (BO) models an optimization problem as a probabilistic form called surrogate model and then directly maximizes an acquisition function created from such surrogate model in order to maximize implicitly and indirectly the target function for finding out solution of the optimization problem. A popular surrogate model is Gaussian process regression model. The process of maximizing acquisition function is based on updating posterior probability of surrogate model repeatedly, which is improved after every iteration. Taking advantages of acquisition function or utility function is also common in decision theory but the semantic meaning behind BO is that BO solves problems by progressive and adaptive approach via updating surrogate model from a small piece of data at each time, according to ideology of reinforcement learning. Undoubtedly, BO is a reinforcement learning algorithm with many potential applications and thus it is surveyed in this research with attention to its mathematical ideas. Moreover, the solution of optimization problem is important to not only applied mathematics but also AI.

Speaker recognition methods based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) have been widely used in the security field and smart wearable devices. However, the traditional CNN has a large number of hyperparameters that are difficult to be determined, which makes the model easy to fall into local optimum or even fail to converge during the training process. Intelligent algorithms such as particle swarm optimization and genetic algorithm are used to solve the above problems. However, these algorithms have poor performance compared with the current emerging meta-heuristic algorithms. In this study, the dung beetle optimized convolution neural network (DBO-CNN) is proposed to identify the speakers, which is helpful in finding suitable hyperparameters for training. By testing the dataset of 50 people, it was demonstrated that the accuracy of the model was significantly improved by using this approach. Compared with the traditional CNN and CNN optimized by other intelligent algorithms, the accuracy of DBO-CNN has increased by 0.6%~4.8%, and reached 98.3%.

Contrapose the highly integrated, multiple types of faults and complex working conditions of aircraft Electro Hydrostatic Actuator (EHA), to effectively identify its typical faults, we propose a fault diagnosis method based on the fusion convolutional neural networks (FCNN). First, the aircraft EHA fault data is encoded by GADF to obtain the fault feature images. Then we build an FCNN model that integrates the 1DCNN and 2DCNN, where the original 1D fault data is the input of the 1DCNN model, and the feature images obtained by GADF transformation are used as the input of 2DCNN. Multiple convolution and pooling operations are performed on each of these inputs to extract the features, next these feature vectors are spliced in the convergence layer, and the fully connected layers and the Softmax layers are finally used to attain the classification of aircraft EHA faults. Furthermore, the multi-strategy hybrid particle swarm optimization (MSPSO) algorithm is applied to optimize the FCNN to obtain a better combination of FCNN hyperparameters; MSPSO incorporates various strategies, including an initialization strategy based on homogenization and randomization, and an adaptive inertia weighting strategy, etc. The experimental result indicates that the FCNN model optimized by MSPSO achieves an accuracy of 96.86% for identifying typical faults of the aircraft EHA, respectively higher than the 1DCNN and the 2DCNN about 16.5% and 5.7%. Additionally, the FCNN model improved by MSPSO has a higher accuracy rate when compared to PSO.

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) stands as a pivotal technological stride toward a sustainable future, with the practice of injecting supercritical CO2 into subsurface formations having already been an established practice for enhanced oil recovery operations. The overarching objective of CCS is to protract the operational viability and sustainability of platforms and oilfields, thereby facilitating a seamless transition towards sustainable practices. This study introduces a comprehensive framework for optimizing well placements in CCS operations, employing a derivative-free method known as Bayesian optimization. The development plan is tailored for scenarios featuring aquifers devoid of flow boundaries, incorporating production wells tasked with controlling pressure buildup and injection wells dedicated to CO2 sequestration. Notably, the wells operate under group control, signifying predefined injection and production targets and constraints that must be adhered to throughout the project’s lifespan. As a result, the objective function remains invariant under specific permutations of the well locations. Our investigation delves into the efficacy of Bayesian optimization under the introduced permutation invariance. The results reveal that it demonstrates critical efficiency in handling the optimization task extremely fast. In essence, this study advocates for the efficacy of Bayesian optimization in the context of optimizing well placements for CCS operations, emphasizing its potential as a preferred methodology for enhancing sustainability in the energy sector.

This paper explores the application of various machine learning techniques for predicting customer churn in the telecommunications sector. We utilized a publicly accessible dataset and implemented several models, including Artificial Neural Networks, Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines, Random Forests, Logistic Regression, and gradient boosting techniques (XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost). To mitigate the challenges posed by imbalanced datasets, we adopted different data sampling strategies, namely SMOTE, SMOTE combined with Tomek Links, and SMOTE combined with Edited Nearest Neighbors. Moreover, hyperparameter tuning was employed to enhance model performance. Our evaluation employed standard metrics such as Precision, Recall, F1-Score, and the Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under Curve (ROC AUC). Regarding the F1-Score metric, CatBoost demonstrates superior performance compared to other machine learning models, achieving an outstanding 93% following the application of Optuna hyperparameter optimization. In the context of the ROC AUC metric, both XGBoost and CatBoost exhibit exceptional performance, recording remarkable scores of 91%. This achievement for XGBoost is attained after implementing a combination of SMOTE with Tomek Links, while CatBoost reaches this level of performance after the application of Optuna hyperparameter optimization.

In many Bayesian computations, first, we obtain the expression of the joint distribution of all the unknown variables given the observed data. In general, this expression is not separable in those variables. Thus, obtaining their marginals for each variable and computing the expectations are difficult and costly. This problem becomes even more difficult in high dimensional quandaries, which is an important issue in inverse problems. We may then try to propose a surrogate expression with which we can do approximate computations. Often a separable expression approximation can be useful enough. The Variational Bayesian Approximation (VBA) is a technique that approximates the joint distribution $p$ with an easier, for example separable, one $q$ by minimizing Kullback–Leibler Divergence $KL(q|p)$. When $q$ is separable in all the variables, the approximation is also called Mean Field Approximation (MFA) and so $q$ is the product of the approximated marginals. A first standard and general algorithm is alternate optimization of $KL(q|p)$ with respect to $q_i$. A second general approach is its optimization in the Riemannian manifold. However, in this paper, for practical reasons, we consider the case where $p$ is in the exponential family and so is $q$. For this case, $KL(q|p)$ becomes a function of the parameters $\thetab$ of the exponential family. Then, we can use any other optimization algorithm to obtain those parameters. In this paper, we compare three optimization algorithms: standard alternate optimization, a gradient-based algorithm and a natural gradient algorithm and study their relative performances on three examples.

Estimating parameters for multiple datasets can be time consuming, especially when the number of datasets is large. One solution is to sample from multiple datasets simultaneously using Bayesian methods such as adaptive multiple importance sampling (AMIS). Here we use the AMIS approach to fit a von Misses distribution to multiple datasets for wind trajectories derived from a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model driven from a 3D meteorological data. The primary objective is to characterise the uncertainties in wind trajectories in a form that can be used as inputs for predictive models of wind-dispersed insect pests and pathogens of agricultural crops for use in evaluating risk and in planning mitigation actions. Our results show that AMIS can significantly improve the efficiency of parameter inference for multiple datasets.

In his best-selling book An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, W. Feller established a way of ending the St. Petersburg Paradox by the introduction of an entrance fee, and provided it for the case in which the game is played with a fair coin. A natural generalization of his method is to establish the entrance fee for the case in which the probability of head is θ (0 < θ < 1/2). The deduction of those fees is the main result of Section 2. We then propose a Bayesian approach to the problem. When the probability of head is θ (1/2 < θ < 1) the expected gain of the St. Petersburg Game is finite, therefore there is no paradox. However, if one takes θ as a random variable assuming values in (1/2,1) the paradox may hold, what is counter-intuitive. On Section 3 we determine a necessary and sufficient condition for the absence of paradox on the Bayesian approach and on Section 4 we establish the entrance fee for the case in which θ is uniformly distributed in (1/2,1), for in this case there is paradox.

This study investigates the application of regression neural networks, in particular the fitrnet model, in predicting the hardness of steels. The experiments involve extensive tuning of hyperparameters using Bayesian optimization and employ 5-fold and 10-fold cross-validation schemes. The trained models are rigorously evaluated, and their performances are compared using various metrics such as mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R2). The results provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of the models and their ability to generalize to unseen data. In particular, Model 4208 (8-85-141-1) emerges as the top performer with an impressive RMSE of 1.0790 and an R² of 0.9900. The research paper contains an illustrative example that demonstrates the practical application of the developed model in determining the hardenability band for a specific steel grade and shows the effectiveness of the model in predicting and optimizing heat treatment results.

Semi-continuous data are very common in the social science and economics. In this paper, a Bayesian variable selection procedure is developed to assess the influence of exogenous factors including observed and unobserved on the semi-continuous data. Our formulation is based on the two-part latent variable model with polytomous response. We consider two schemes for the penalties of regression coefficients and factor loadings: the Bayesian spike and slab bimodal prior and the Bayesian lasso prior. Within the Bayesian framework, we implement Markov Chains Monte Carlo sampling method to conduct posterior inference. To facilitate posterior sampling, we recast the logistic model in part one as the norm-like mixture model. Gibbs sampler is designed to draw observations from the posterior. Our empirical results show that with suitable hyper-parameters, the spike and slab bimodal method slightly outperforms the Bayesian lasso in the current analysis. Finally, a real example related to the China household finance survey is analyzed to illustrate the application of the methodology.. .

The enormous increase in the volume of Earth Observations (EOs) has provided the scientific community with unprecedented temporal, spatial, and spectral information. However, this increase in the volume of EOs has not yet resulted in proportional progress with our ability to forecast agricultural systems.This study examines the applicability of EOs obtained from Sentinel2 and Landsat8 for constraining the APSIM-Maize model parameters. We leveraged leaf area index (LAI) retrieved from Sentinel2 and Landsat8 NDVI to constrain a series of APSIM-Maize model parameters in three different Bayesian multi-criteria optimization frameworks across 13 different sites across the U.S Midwest. A time variant sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the most influential parameters driving the LAI estimates in APSIM-Maize model. Then surrogate models were develop using random samples taken from the parameter space using Latin hypercube sampling to emulate APSIM’s behavior in simulating NDVI and LAI at all sites. Site-level, global and hierarchical Bayesian optimization models were then developed using the site-level emulators to simultaneously constrain all parameters and estimate the site to site variability in crop parameters. For within sample predictions, site-level optimization showed the largest predictive uncertainty around LAI and crop yield, whereas the global optimization showed the most constraint predictions for these variables. Lowest RMSE for within sample yield prediction was found for hierarchical optimization scheme (1423 Kg ha−1) while the largest RMSE was found for site-level (1494 Kg ha−1). In out-of-sample predictions within the spatio-temporal extent of the training sites, global optimization showed lower RMSE (1627 Kg ha−1) compared to the hierarchical approach (1822 Kg ha−1) across 90 independent sites in the U.S Midwest. On comparison between these two optimization schemes across another 242 independent sites outside the spatio-temporal extent of the training sites, global optimization also showed substantially lower RMSE (1554 Kg ha−1) as compared to the hierarchical approach (2532 Kg ha−1). Overall, EOs demonstrated their real use case for constraining process-based crop models and showed comparable results to model calibration exercises using only field measurements.

In this paper, we introduce a control method for the linear quadratic tracking (LQT) problem with zero steady-state error. It is achieved by augmenting the original system with an additional state representing the integrated error between the reference and actual outputs. In its essence, it is a linear quadratic integral (LQI) control embedded in a general LQT control framework, with the reference trajectory generated by a linear exogenous system. During the simulative implementation for the specific real-world system Car-in-the-Loop (CiL) test bench, we assume that the 'real' system is completely known. Therefore, for the model-based control, we can have a perfect model identical to the 'real' system. It becomes clear that stable solutions can scarcely be achieved with controller designed with the perfect model of the 'real' system. Contrary, we show that a model learnt via Bayesian Optimization (BO) can facilitate a much bigger set of stable controllers. It exhibits an improved control performance. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this discovery is the first in the LQT related literature.

ACL instability poses a significant challenge in traumatology and orthopedic medicine, often requiring accurate diagnosis for appropriate treatment. While the pivot-shift test offers a crucial means of assessment, its reliance on subjective interpretation underscores the need for supplementary imaging studies. This study aims to address this limitation by developing a Bayesian classification algorithm tailored for integration into a mobile application. Using the built-in inertial sensors of smartphones, this new approach aims to dynamically evaluate rotational stability during knee examinations. Orthopedic specialists conducted knee evaluations on 52 subjects, with subsequent analysis revealing interesting insights. Intraobserver and interobserver analyses, as measured by ICC, demonstrated strong agreement both in terms of timing between maneuvers (ICC = 0.94) and signal amplitude (ICC = 0.71-0.66). Notably, the Bayesian algorithm successfully classified 95% of joint hypermobility cases, with an additional 7 cases of hyperlaxity identified by the Pivot-Shift Meter (PSM). These findings highlight the practicality and effectiveness of implementing a Bayesian classification algorithm within a mobile application for assessing and categorizing signals captured by smartphone inertial sensors during the pivot-shift test.

Aiming at the prediction of environmental vibrations induced by elevated high-speed railway, a machine-learning method is developed by combining random forest algorithm and Bayesian optimization, which using the dataset from on-site experiments . When it comes to achieving a rapid and effective prediction of environmental vibration, there is few research on com-parisons and verifications of different algorithms, and neither on parameter tuning and optimi-zation of machine learning algorithms. In this paper, a field experiment is firstly carried out to measure the ground vibrations caused by high-speed trains running on bridge, and then the en-vironmental vibration characteristics are analyzed in view of ground accelerations and weighted vibration levels. Subsequently, three machine-learning algorithms of linear regression, support vector machine and random forest are developed by using experimental database, and their prediction performance are discussed. Finally, two optimization models for the hyperparameter set of random forest algorithm are further compared. It turns out that the integrated random forest algorithm has higher accuracy in predicting environmental vibration than linear regression and support vector machine; the Bayesian optimization has excellent performance and high efficiency in achieving efficient and in-depth optimization of parameters, and can be combined with the RF machine learning algorithm to effectively predict the environmental vibrations induced by the high-speed railway.

The need to increase the energy efficiency of buildings as well as the use of local renewable heat sources has caused that heat meters are used not only to calculate the consumed energy but also for the active management of central heating systems. Increasing the reading frequency and the use of measurement data to control the heating system expands the requirements for the reliability of heat meters. The aim of the research is to analyse a large set of meters in the real network and predict their faults to avoid inaccurate readings, incorrect billing, heating system disruption and unnecessary maintenance. The reliability analysis of heat metres, based on historical data collected over several years, shows some regularities which cannot be easily described by physics-based models. The failure rate is almost constant and does depend on the past but is a non-linear combination of state variables. To predict meters' failures in the next settlement period, three independent machine learning models are implemented and compared with selected metrics because even the high performance of a single model (87\% True Positive for Neural Network) may be insufficient to make a maintenance decision. Additionally, performing hyperparameters optimisation boosts models' performance by a few percent. Finally, three improved models are used to build an ensemble classifier which outperforms the individual models. The proposed procedure ensures the high efficiency of fault detection (>95\%), while maintaining overfitting at the minimum level. The methodology is universal and can be utilised to study the reliability and predict faults of other types of meters and different objects with the constant failure rate.

Knowledge-based approaches are useful alternatives to predict the Failure Probability (FP) coping with the insufficient data, process integrity, and complexity issue in manufacturing systems. This study proposes a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) approach as proactive knowledge-based technique to estimate the FP based maintenance planning with subjective information from domain experts. However, the classical-FTA still suffers from uncertainty and static structure limitations which poses a substantial dilemma in predicting FP. To deal with the uncertainty issues, a Fuzzy-FTA (FFTA) model was developed by statistical analysing the effective attributes such as experts' trait impacts, scales variation and, assorted membership and defuzzification functions. Besides, a Bayesian Network (BN) theory was conducted to overcome the static limitation of classical-FTA. The results of FFTA model revealed that the changes in decision attributes were not statistically significant on FP variation while BN model considering conditional rules to reflect the dynamic relationship between events had more impact on predicting FP. After all, the integrated FFTA-BN model was used in the optimization model to find the optimal maintenance intervals according to estimated FP and the total expected cost. As a practical example, the proposed model was implemented in a semi-automatic filling system in an automotive production line. The outcomes could be useful for upgrading the availability and safety of complex equipment in manufacturing systems.

Proteomics research has become one of the most important topics in the fields of life science and natural science. At present, research on protein–protein interaction networks (PPINs) mainly focuses on detecting protein complexes or function modules. However, existing approaches are either ineffective or incomplete. In this paper, we investigate function module detection mechanisms in PPIN, including open databases, existing detection algorithms and recent solutions. After that, we describe the proposed solution based on simplified swarm optimization (SSO) algorithm and gene ontology knowledge. The proposed solution implements SSO algorithm for clustering proteins with similar function, and imports biological gene ontology knowledge for further identifying function complexes and improving detection accuracy. Furthermore, we use four different categories of species dataset for experiment: Fruitfly, Mouse, Scere, and Human. The testing and analysis result show that the proposed solution is feasible, efficient and could achieve a higher accuracy of prediction than existing approaches.

Fitting parameters on spline curves produces more parsimonious models, maintaining fit quality. Smoothing the splines reduces predictive variance. Individual splines are often fit by type of variable, e.g., in age-period-cohort models. Linear and cubic splines are most common. Several smoothing criteria have been used for parameter curves, with cubic splines fit by constraining the integral of splines’ squared-second derivatives popular recently. Constraining the sum of squared second differences for linear splines is analogous. Generally the degree of smoothing is selected using cross-validation. Known spline dummy-variable matrices allow regression estimation of splines, with smoothing done via constrained regression. Smoothing criteria based on sums of squares or absolute values of parameters, as in ridge regression or LASSO, improves predictive accuracy and produces splines similar to smoothing by second-derivative constraints. Variables with very low t-statistics represent points where curve-shapes barely change. Eliminating those variables leaves knots concentrated where spline shapes change. A Bayesian version of this puts shrinkage priors on spline parameters. This yields realistic joint parameter distributions, avoids problems associated with using cross-validation for parameter estimation, and readily expands to non-linear modeling, such as interactions among variable types. Regularized regression and Bayesian spline methods are compared for two example datasets.

The expansion of renewable energies is progressing strongly. The influence on the power supply networks by the volatility of the infeed must be met with new concepts. In this paper we investigate the possibilities of integrating microgrids as a cooperating unit in the power supply network to support further expansion of RES power plants. In this paper a differentiation of microgrids from similar network structures is established, a classification of proposed groups is made. Then, after the description of simulation of components in a microgrid, with practical advice, an example model is shown, which aids the dimensioning of the components within a microgrid to achieve a specified goal.

Energy Measurement and Verification (M&V) aims to make inferences about the savings achieved in energy projects, given the data and other information at hand. Traditionally, a frequentist approach has been used to quantify these savings and their associated uncertainties. We demonstrate that the Bayesian paradigm is an intuitive, coherent, and powerful alternative framework within which M&V can be done. Its advantages and limitations are discussed, and two examples from the industry-standard International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP) are solved using the framework. Bayesian analysis is shown to describe the problem more thoroughly and yield richer information and uncertainty quantification than the standard methods while not sacrificing model simplicity. We also show that Bayesian methods can be more robust to outliers. Bayesian alternatives to standard M&V methods are listed, and examples from literature are cited.

In the process of oil and gas development and production, when the flow rate in the wellbore is large, the materials underground will be eroded, causing the operation to be unable to proceed smoothly and reducing the efficiency of oil and gas production. Therefore, optimizing the anti-erosion coating under high-speed flow conditions in wellbore is a very interesting thing. It can greatly improve operational efficiency. In this paper, laser cladding was used to prepare the new coating used in the PDC drill bit. Then, the effects of tungsten carbide and multi-layer graphene on the microstructure and properties of the tungsten carbide coating were studied. The research results indicate that, for new coatings, 60% tungsten carbide and 0.3% graphene are the optimal ratios. After adding WC, the hardness has significantly improved. However, when the WC content further increases more than 30%, the increase in hardness is relatively small. In addition, when the content of graphene is more than 0.3%, the branched structure became thicker, and not only the segregation of Cr, Si and W became very obvious again, but also the segregation of Fe occurred at the Ni enrichment site. The research results contribute to improving oil and gas production and operational efficiency under high-speed fluid flow conditions in the wellbore.

As the adoption of renewable energy sources grows, ensuring a stable power balance across various time frames has become a central challenge for modern power systems. In line with the "dual carbon" objectives and the seamless integration of renewable energy sources, harnessing the advantages of various energy storage resources and coordinating the operation of long-term and short-term storage have become pivotal directions for future energy storage deployment. To address the complexities arising from the coupling of different time scales in optimizing energy storage capacity, this paper proposes a method for energy storage planning that accounts for power imbalance risks across multiple time scales. Initially, the Seasonal and Trend decomposition using the Loess (STL) decomposition method is utilized to temporally decouple actual operational data. Subsequently, power balance computations are performed based on the obtained data at various time scales to optimize the allocation of different types of energy storage capacities and assess the associated imbalance risks. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated through hourly applications using real-world data from a province in China over recent years.

Green synthesis of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) using raw Whey has never been reported. Silver nanoparticle formation involves a reduction reaction of silver salt solution with Whey extract. Extract and metal salt concentrations, and temperature can control this reaction. In this work, incubation period, extract, AgNO3, and NaOH concentrations were used as the independent factors using central composite design under response surface methodology. The aim was to elucidate the influence these factors have on the measured UV-Vis absorption spectra fitted with a Voigt function, and to optimize the conditions for nanoparticle formation. The fitting parameters, peak wavelength (λ0), peak area (A), and Full Width at Half Maximum (FWHM), were the responses. Silver nanoparticle formation was only possible in an alkaline environment (pH 10). The peak wavelength and the FWHM are influenced mainly by extract and AgNO3 concentrations. In contrast, the peak area is influenced by a total of 33.54 % from the interaction terms of AgNO3 and extract concentrations with NaOH. Metallic AgNPs were formed for the following parameter ranges: a) Whey (0.4 – 1.6 % v/v), b) AgNO3 (0.15 – 0.6 mM), c) NaOH (10 – 50 mM), and d) Time (20 – 60 min). Silver oxide nanoparticles were also observed.

The construction industry has a notable negative impact on the environment; thus, the promotion of the use of timber structures is an alternative to mitigate its effects. The research develops an artificial intelligence-based decision approach in the calculation of timber structures focused on the enhancement of the sustainability of roof structures. Based on the optimization carried out through genetic algorithms and the framework established in Eurocode 5, a general set of equations has been proposed for a laminated timber roof structure. The tool, which determines the most suitable roof structure for each strength class of laminated timber, allows for the determination of the dimensions of beams and purlins and their respective separations in order to minimize wood consumption. The ultimate goal is to offer multiple solutions regarding strength classes and structural designs in order to foster informed sustainable choices that promote efficient use of resources in construction.

Managing a portfolio whose value closely tracks an index by trading only in a subset of the index constituents involves an NP-hard optimisation problem. In the prior literature, it has been suggested to solve this problem using sequential Monte Carlo (SMC, a.k.a. particle filter) methods. However, this literature does not take transaction costs into account, although transaction costs are the primary motivation for attempting to replicate the index by trading in a subset, rather than the full set of index constituents. This paper extends the SMC approach to index tracking to allow for proportional transaction costs and implements this extended method on empirical data for a variety stock indices. In addition to providing a more practically useful tracking strategy by allowing for transaction costs, we find that including a penalty for transaction costs in the optimisation objective can actually lead to better tracking performance.

This article introduces a novel nature-inspired metaheuristic algorithm called Frilled Lizard Optimization (FLO), which emulates the hunting behavior of frilled lizards in their natural habitat. FLO draws in-spiration from the sit-and-wait strategy observed in frilled lizards during hunting. The underlying theory of FLO is presented and mathematically formulated in two phases: (i) an exploration phase, simulating the frilled lizard's attack towards prey, and (ii) an exploitation phase, simulating the lizard's retreat to the top of the tree after feeding. To assess FLO's efficacy in solving optimization problems, the algorithm's performance is evaluated across fifty-two standard benchmark functions, encompassing unimodal, high-dimensional multimodal, fixed-dimensional multimodal, and the CEC 2017 test suite. Comparative analyses with twelve existing metaheuristic algorithms are conducted. The simulation results reveal that FLO, distinguished by its adeptness in exploration, exploitation, and balancing them during search process, outperforms competing algorithms. Additionally, FLO is implemented on twenty-two constrained optimization problems from the CEC 2011 test suite and four engineering design problems, demonstrating its effectiveness in addressing real-world optimization applications.

This paper investigates an innovative photovoltaic cell configuration, denoted as “Au/CuSCN/RbGeI3/CdTe/ZnO/TiO2/FTO", using SCAPS-1D simulation. The research focuses on optimizing device performance by analyzing key components, including ZnO as the electron transport layer (ETL), RbGeI3 as the perovskite absorber layer, CuSCN as the hole transport layer (HTL), and CdTe as the active buffer layer. A comparison is made with the standard “Au/CuSCN/CH3NH3SnI3/CdTe/ZnO/TiO2/FTO" configuration under dark and illuminated conditions. Through an in-depth investigation involving temperature effects, generation rate analysis, RbGeI3 absorber layer thickness, Nd level, and interface defect levels, an optimized design for a unit area is achieved. The proposed solar cell demonstrates outstanding performance metrics, including an open circuit voltage (Voc) of 0.94V, a short circuit current density (Jsc) of 34.52mA/cm2, a fill factor (FF) of 77.77%, and an energy conversion efficiency (η) of 25.40%. These values significantly outperform the reference models with energy conversion efficiencies of 10.11% and 21.09%. Real-world applicability is validated by implementing these optimized characteristics in a photovoltaic system for Pakistan’s geographical location using PVSyst software. The suggested solar cell achieves a remarkable performance ratio (PR) of 85.6%, surpassing the PR of the reference basic solar cell model at 83%. The findings of this research offer a promising and superior solar cell design, incorporating innovative materials and optimization techniques to achieve exceptional energy conversion efficiency and overall performance. This study’s outcomes have the potential to advance photovoltaic technology and contribute to sustainable energy solutions worldwide.

Bootstrap resampling techinques, introduced by Efron and Rubin, can be presented in a general Bayesian framework, approximating the statistical distribution of a statistical functional φ(F), where F is a random distribution function. Efron’s and Rubin’s bootstrap procedures can be extended introducing an informative prior through the Proper Bayesian bootstrap. In this paper different bootstrap techniques are used and compared in predictive classification and regression models based on ensemble approaches, i.e. bagging models involving decision trees. Proper Bayesian bootstrap, proposed by Muliere and Secchi, is used to sample the posterior distribution over trees, introducing prior distributions on the covariates and the target variable. The results obtained are compared with respect to other competitive procedures employing different bootstrap techniques. The empirical analysis reports the results obtained on simulated and real data.

Lactoperoxidase (LP), which is a high-value minor whey protein, has recently drawn extensive attention from research scientists and industry due to its multi-function and potential therapeutic applications. In this study, the separation and optimization of two similar-sized proteins, LP and lactoferrin (LF) were investigated using strong cation exchange column chromatography. Optimization was started with central composite design based experiments to characterize the importance of different decision variables. The three variables used in the optimization were flow rate, length of gradient and final salt concentration in the linear elution gradient step. The obtained empiric functional model represented the effect of the significant factors on the yield as the objective function. Afterwards, the calibrated mechanistic model was employed to predict accurate optimal set of variables. The optimal operating points were found and the results were compared with validation experiments. Predictions respecting yield confirmed a very good agreement with experimental results while keeping purity, a product quality characteristic, equal or above to a predefined value.

As the oil industry increasingly turns to unconventional low-permeability and low-porosity reservoirs, precise post-fracture production prediction is a pivotal instrument in investment de-cision-making, formulation of energy policies, and promotion of environmental assessments. Nevertheless, despite extensive research spanning decades, the precise post-fracture production prediction based on logging parameters remains an intricate task. In this study, we gathered ex-tensive logging data and segmented the post-frac gas production during well testing on the first day to enrich the dataset. Nine pipelines were then architected using various techniques of data preprocessing, feature extraction, and advanced machine learning models. Hyperparameter op-timization was executed via the GridsearchCV. To assess the efficacy of diverse models, metrics including the coefficient of determination (R2), standard deviation (SD), and root mean square error (RMSE) were invoked. Among the several pipelines explored, the PS-NN exhibited excellent predictive capability in specific reservoir contexts (an R2 value of 0.94 and an RMSE of 48.15). In essence, integrating machine learning with logging parameters effectively assesses reservoir productivity at multi-meter formation scales. This strategy not only mitigates uncertainties en-demic to reservoir exploration but also equips petroleum engineers with monitoring on reservoir dynamics, thereby facilitating reservoir development. Additionally, this approach provides res-ervoir engineers with an efficient way of reservoir performance oversight.

An active power dispatch method for a microgrid (MG) with multi-type loads, renewable energy sources (RESs) and distributed energy storage devices (DESDs) is the focus of this paper. The MG operates in a grid-connected model, and distributed power sources contribute to the service for load demands. The outputs of multiple DESDs are controlled to optimize the active power dispatch. Our goal with optimization is to reduce the economic cost under time-of-use (TOU) price, and to adjust the excessively high or low load rate of distributed transformers (DTs) caused by the peak-valley demand and load uncertainties. To simulate a practical environment, the stochastic characteristics of multi-type loads are formulated. The transition matrix of system state is provided. Then, a finite-horizon Markov decision process (FHMDP) model is established to describe the dispatch optimization problem. A learning-based technique is adopted to search the optimal joint control policy of multiple DESDs. Finally, simulation experiments are performed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, and the fuzzification analysis of the method is presented.

Extraction techniques of important bioactive molecules from the major concern of Seafood byproducts are getting emphasis for better valorization. Employing green extraction technologies for efficient and quality production of these bioactive molecules is also strictly required. Hence, understanding the extraction process parameters to effectively design an applicable optimization strategy could make this real. In this review, statistical optimization strategies applied for the extraction process parameters of bioactive molecules from Seafood byproducts are focused. The type of experimental designs, and techniques applied to criticize and validate the effects of independent variables on the extraction output was addressed. Dominant parameters studied were enzyme/substrate ratio, pH, time, temperature and power of extraction instruments. The yield of bioactive compounds, chitin and chitosan, proteins and peptides, enzymes and carotenoids (Astaxanthins) were the most studied responses. Efficiency and/or economic and quality considerations and their selected optimization strategies that favour the production of potential bioactive molecules were also reviewed.

This research study focuses on addressing practical optimization challenges in audio-visual content using advanced computational intelligence methods, with a specific emphasis on privacy-preserving issues. The research will be presented as a proposal and can be conducted based on the provided ideas. Computational intelligence encompasses various approaches, including evolutionary algorithms, learning methods, fuzzy systems, and neural networks, which have become essential tools for tackling complex engineering optimization problems due to computational expenses, dimensional complexities, and interdisciplinary integration. The research objectives include a thorough investigation of optimization challenges in audio-visual content, the delineation of problem characteristics, and the development of relevant methodologies based on these specifications. The main goals of the study, titled "Advanced Computational Intelligence Assisted Less-Expensive Privacy-Preserving Optimization," encompass the development of a metamodel-based learning algorithm integrated with evolutionary computation for privacy-preserving optimization, less-expensive signal watermarking optimization using hybrid metamodeling and evolutionary algorithms, and a closed-loop robust intelligent PID control system applied in real-time dynamic signal watermarking. Additional objectives may be defined as the research progresses and further background review is conducted.

The advancement of urban scholarship and the effective addressing of urban environment challenges necessitate the adoption of sophisticated analytical methods. Urban scholars and policymakers need advanced analytical methods to tackle issues like gentrification, housing affordability, and urban sprawl. Predictive models are crucial in the realm of urban studies, and hyperparameter tuning methods can significantly improve their accuracy and efficiency. Our study compares three such methods — Optuna, Random Search, and Grid Search — using a housing transaction dataset. We find that Optuna is not only 4 to 6 times faster than the other two methods when applied to Gradient Boosting Machine and Random Forest algorithms, but also achieves lower error values in key evaluation metrics on the test set, such as mean absolute error, mean squared error, mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error.

Objective: The aim of this study was to optimize the fermentation process of Radix Ranunculi ternate via microbial fermentation and analyze the changes in the contents of the main components, the antioxidant and hypoglycemic capacities of the extract before and after fermentation. Methods: The solid-state fermentation process was optimized using single-factor tests and the response surface method, with the yield of the alcohol extract of R. ternate as an evaluation index. Results: The best fermentation process was optimized using solid-state endophytic fungus fermentation technology as follows: strain addition ratio of Chaetomium globosum/Fusarium equiseti =1:1, fermentation for 5 d, sieve size of 40 mesh, liquid/material ratio of 0.8:1 mL·g−1, fermentation temperature of 31 °C, and inoculation amount of 7.5%. Under the optimized conditions, the contents of the water-soluble extract and total polysaccharides decreased by 12.71% and 12.95%, respectively, in the fermentation, The contents of ethanol-soluble-extract, flavonoids, saponins, polyphenols, organic acids, and total amino acids of fermented R. ternate increased by 19.77%, 57.14%, 79.67%, 14.29%, 17.63% and 3.82%, respectively, and the scavenging rate for DPPH, ABTS+, ·OH free radicals and inhibitory rate for α-amylase also increased by 19.02%, 14.17%, 7.53% and 34.54%, respectively, compared with unfermented R. ternate. Conclusions: Solid-state fermentation opens new avenues for the development and application of R. ternate as natural antioxidant and hypoglycemic food.

The incremental sheet forming represents a relatively recent technology that guarantees high customization, thanks to the layered manufacturing principle typical of rapid prototyping, and cost-effectiveness, because it does not require dedicated equipment. Research has initially shown that this process is effective in metal materials capable of withstanding plastic deformation but, in recent years, the interest in this technique has been increasing for the manufacture of complex polymer sheet components as an alternative to the conventional technologies, based on heating-shaping-cooling manufacturing routes. Conversely, incremental formed polymer sheets can suffer from some peculiar defects, for example twisting. To reduce the risk of this phenomenon and the occurrence of failures, a viable way is to choose toolpath strategies that make the tool/sheet contact conditions less severe, and this represents the main goal of the present research. Polycarbonate sheets were worked by incremental forming; in detail, cone frusta with a fixed wall angle were manufactured with a reference and a stair toolpath strategy, and both the forming forces and the twist angle were monitored. The analysis of the results highlighted that a stair toolpath involving an alternation of diagonal up and vertical down steps represents a useful strategy to mitigate the forming forces and, with them, the occurrence of the twisting phenomenon in incremental formed thermoplastic sheets.

Amid the swift progression of the global automobile industry, the aspiration for lightweight vehicle design has surfaced as a crucial approach to boost fuel efficiency and curtail environmental impact. The objective of this study revolves around achieving holistic optimization of vehicle structure via detailed scrutiny of vehicle process characteristics, amalgamated with a Back Propagation neural network (BPNN) optimized by a genetic algorithm (GA) and a topology optimization (TO) method.The process initiates with an examination of the vehicle's technical characteristics, succeeded by an optimization protocol that couples GA with BPNN. This exhaustive optimization procedure derives the best-fit values of design parameters and identifies the globally optimal lightweight design approach. Subsequently, a comprehensive structural optimization is actualized by modifying the topological distribution of the structure.A simulation experiment of the conceptual car body beam skeleton is conducted as a conclusive step, and the anti-collision capacity of the car body beam skeleton is assessed by measuring deformation intrusion. The findings reveal that in the vehicle topology optimization, a comparative analysis of pre and post-optimization results indicates an improved topological density across diverse sections. The topological density of the vehicle's frontal structure escalates from 0.75 to 0.8. Following optimization, the stiffness assessment records a marginal increase (within the range of 0.02–0.05), implying that the lightweight design does not compromise the general rigidity of the structure.The optimized body structure manifests superior crashworthiness in the crash test: the deformation intrusion diminishes by 27% in front-end collisions. In side impacts, the deformation and intrusion at critical points are reduced by 13.15% to 10% respectively. The comprehensive method proposed herein proves to be an efficient strategy to actualize the lightweight design of vehicles.

Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems (HRES) integrate renewable sources, storage, and optionally conventional energies, offering an eco-friendly solution to fossil fuels. Microgrids (MGs) bolster HRES integration, enhancing energy management, resilience, and reliability at various levels. This study, emphasizing the need for refined optimization methods, investigates three themes: renewable energy, microgrid, and multiobjective optimization (MOO), through a bibliometric analysis of 470 Scopus documents from 2010-2023, analyzed with SciMAT software. It segments the research into two periods, 2010-2019 and 2020-2023, revealing a surge in MOO focus, especially in the latter period, with a 35% increase in MOO-related research. This indicates a shift towards com-prehensive energy ecosystem management that balances environmental, technical, and economic elements. The initial focus on MOO, genetic algorithms, and energy management systems has expanded to include smart grids and electric power systems, with MOO remaining a primary theme in the second period. The increased application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in optimizing HMGS within the MOO framework signals a move towards more sustainable, intelligent energy solutions. Despite progress, challenges remain, including high battery costs, the need for reliable MOO data, the intermittency of renewable energy sources, and HMGS network scalability issues, highlighting directions for future research.

This paper focuses on a joint model to analyse longitudinal proportion and survival data. After transforming the longitudinal proportional data by a logit function, we adopt a partially linear mixed-effect model for it, in which nonlinear function of time is fitted via using B-splines technique and a centered Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (CDPMM) is specified for a general distribution of random effects. The survival data is assumed to a Cox proportional hazard model, the sharing random effects joint model is developed for the two types of data. Combining the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, we propose a Bayesian Lasso (BLasso) method to simultaneously estimate unknown parameters and select important covariates. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the finite sample performance of the proposed methods. An example from the MA.5 research experiment is used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

In this paper study, we develop a Bayesian Network model selection principle that address addresses the incommensurability of network features obtained from incongruous datasets and overcomes performance irregularities of the Minimum Description Length model selection principle. This is achieved (i) by approaching model evaluation as a classification problem, (ii) by estimating the effect that sampling error has on the satisfiability of conditional independence criterion, as reflected by Mutual Information, and (iii) by utilizing this error estimate to penalize uncertainty in the Minimum Uncertainty (MU) model selection principle. We validate our findings numerically and demonstrate the performance advantages of the MU criterion. Finally, we illustrate the advantages of the new model evaluation framework on a tRNA structural biology example.

Classical methods for inverse problems are mainly based on regularization theory. In particular those which are based on optimization of a criterion with two parts: a data-model matching and a regularization term. Different choices for these two terms and great number of optimization algorithms have been proposed. When these two terms are distance or divergence measures, they can have a Bayesian Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) interpretation where these two terms correspond, respectively, to the likelihood and prior probability models.

The power function distribution is a flexible waiting time model that may provide better fit for some failure data. This paper presents the comparison of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates of two-parameter power function distribution. The Bayes estimates are obtained, using conjugate priors, under five loss functions consist of square error, precautionary, weighted, LINEX and DeGroot loss function. The Gibbs sampling algorithm is proposed to generate samples from posterior distributions and in result the Bayes estimates are computed. The comparison of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates are done through the root mean squared errors. One real-life data set is analyzed to illustrate the evaluation of proposed methods of estimation. Finally, results from the simulation are discussed to assess the performance behavior of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates.

We present a first formal analysis of specific and complete local integration. Complete local integration was previously proposed as a criterion for detecting entities or wholes in distributed dynamical systems. Such entities in turn were conceived to form the basis of a theory of emergence of agents within dynamical systems. Here, we give a more thorough account of the underlying formal measures. The main contribution is the disintegration theorem which reveals a special role of completely locally integrated patterns (what we call ι-entities) within the trajectories they occur in. Apart from proving this theorem we introduce the disintegration hierarchy and its refinement-free version as a way to structure the patterns in a trajectory. Furthermore we construct the least upper bound and provide a candidate for the greatest lower bound of specific local integration. Finally, we calculate the i-entities in small example systems as a first sanity check and find that ι-entities largely fulfil simple expectations.

This study was designed for the first time to improve phenolic yield and antioxidant activity of ultrasonic-assisted extraction from Acer truncatum leaves (ATL) using response surface methodology, and phenolic composition in ATL extracted under the optimized condition were characterized by UPLC-QTOF-MS/MS. Solvent and extraction time were selected based on preliminary experiments, and a four-factors-three-levels central composite design was conducted to optimize solvent concentration (X₁), material-to-liquid ratio (X₂), ultrasonic temperature (X₃) and power (X₄) for an optimal total phenol yield (Y₁) and DPPH• antioxidant activity (Y₂). The results showed that the optimal combination was ethanol: water (v:v) 66.21%, material-to-liquid ratio 1:15.31 g/mL, ultrasonic temperature 60 °C, power 267.30 W, and time 30 min with three extractions, giving a maximal total phenol yield of 7593.62 mg gallic acid equivalent /100 g d.w. and a maximal DPPH• antioxidant activity of 74241.61 μmol Trolox equivalent/100 g d.w.. Furthermore, 22 phenolics were first identified in ATL extract obtained under the optimized conditions, indicating that gallates, gallotannins, quercetin, myricetin and chlorogenic acid derivatives were the main phenolic composition in ATL. What’s more, a gallotannins pathway existing in ATL from gallic acid to penta-O-galloyl-glucoside was interpreted. All these results provided practical information aiming at full utilization of phenolics in ATL, together with fundamental knowledge for further research.

Agricultural greenhouse is largely answered in the agricultural sphere, despite the shortcomings it has, including overheating during the day and night cooling which sometimes results in the thermal inversion mainly due to its low inertia. The glasshouse dressed chapel is relatively more efficient than the conventional tunnel greenhouse. Its proliferation on the ground is more or less timid because of its relatively high cost[14-22]. Agricultural greenhouse aims to create a favorable microclimate to the requirements of growth and development of culture, from the surrounding weather conditions, produce according to the cropping calendars fruits, vegetables and flower species out of season and widely available along the year. It is defined by its structural and functional architecture, the quality thermal, mechanical and optical of its wall, with its sealing level and the technical and technological accompanying[12-13]. The greenhouse is a very confined environment, where multiple components are exchanged between key stakeholders and them factors are light, temperature and relative humidity[8]. This state of thermal evolution is the level sealing of the cover of its physical characteristics to be transparent to solar, absorbent and reflective of infrared radiation emitted by the enclosure where the solar radiation trapping effect otherwise called "greenhouse effect" and its technical and technological means of air that accompany. The socio-economic analysis of populations in the world leaves appear especially the last two decades of rapid and profound transformations These changes are accompanied by changes in eating habits, mainly characterized by rising consumption spread along the year[14]. To effectively meet this demand, greenhouse-systems have evolved, particularly towards greater control of production conditions (climate, irrigation, ventilation techniques, CO2 supply, etc ...). Technological progress has allowed the development of greenhouses so that they become increasingly sophisticated and of an industrial nature (heating, air conditioning, control, computer, regulation, etc ...). New climate driving techniques have emerged, including the use of control devices from the classic to the use of artificial intelligence[10-11] such as neural networks and / or fuzzy logic, etc... As a result, the greenhouse growers prefer these new technologies while optimizing the investment in the field to effectively meet the supply and demand of these fresh products cheaply and widely available throughout the year.

The weight coefficients of the diaphragm spring depend on experiences in the traditional optimization. However, this method not only cannot guarantee the optimal solution but it is also not universal. Therefore, a new optimization target function is proposed. The new function takes the minimum of average compress force changing of the spring and the minimum force of the separation as total objectives. Based on the optimization function, the result of the clutch diaphragm spring in a car is analyzed by the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) and the solution set of Pareto is obtained. The results show that the pressing force of the diaphragm spring is improved by 4.09%by the new algorithmand the steering separation force is improved by 6.55%, which has better stability and steering portability. The problem of the weight coefficient in the traditional empirical design is solved. The pressing force of the optimized diaphragm spring varied slightly during the abrasion range of the friction film, and the manipulation became remarkably light.

Micellar Casein Concentrate (MCC) is manufactured from microfiltration (MF) of skim milk utilizing ceramic or polymeric membrane filtration. While ceramic filtration has higher efficiency, use of polymeric is cost effective and the process is familiar to several US dairy processors. The aim of the present study was to develop an optimized membrane filtration process to produce MCC using spiral wound polymeric membrane filtration (SW MF) system by systematic selection of transmembrane pressure (TMP) and level of diafiltration (DF). Using skim milk as feed material, preliminary lab-scale MF experiments were conducted using 0.5 µm polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) membrane. Three TMP (34.5, 62.1, and 103.4 kPa) and three levels of DF (70, 100, and 150%) along with a process without DF as control were used in the study. Effect of TMP and effectiveness of DF on flux rates, SP removal, casein to total protein (CN/TKN) ratio, casein to true protein (CN/TP) ratio, rejection of casein (rej CN) and SP (rej SP) were evaluated. At all TMP values used in the study, the overall flux (O Flux) increased with the level of DF. Highest O Flux of 30.77 liter per meter square per hour (LMH) was obtained with 34.5 kPa pressure and 150% DF. The impact of DF was more pronounced at lower pressures than at the higher pressures used in the study. With controlled DF, instantaneous flux was maintained within 80% of initial flux for the entire process run. For all the experiments, casein has a rejection of 0.97 to 1.0, while serum protein has the lowest rejection of 0.10 at 34.5 kPa pressure and 150% DF level. Use of 34.5 kPa and DF level of 150 % contributed to 81.45% SP removal, and casein to true protein ratio of 0.96. SP removal data from the lab-scale experiments were fitted into a mathematical model using DF and square of TMP as factors. The model predicts SP removal within 90-95% of actual SP removal got from the pilot plant experiments.

In this paper, we focus on variational Bayesian learning deterministic optimization methods for inference in biparametric exponential models where the parameters follow semiparametric regression structures. This combination of data models and algorithms contributes to solving real-world problems and reduces the computation time. This allows both the rapid exploration of many data models and the accurate estimation of the mean and variance functions through the connection between generalized linear models and graph theory. A simulation study was carried out to assess the performance of the deterministic approximation. Finally, herein, we present an application using macroeconomic data to emphasize the benefits of the proposed approach.

Buckling defect will appear on the outer surface of the deformed ring during constrained ring rolling (CRR) of aluminum alloy thin wall conical ring with inner high ribs (AATWCRIHR), if the geometrical dimension of the ribs doesn't match the wall thickness. To avoid the buckling defect, a quantitative method for characterizing the degree of the buckling defect is proposed using the area of buckling profile. Then an orthogonal experimental scheme was designed taking the width of the middle rib, thickness of wall, and height of the middle rib as design variables and defining the area of buckling profile as optimization objective. Subsequently, a quadratic polynomial response surface model was established by combining the optimization algorithm with the finite element method (FEM), and the geometrical dimension of the middle ribs of the deformed AATWCRIHR is optimized. Also the optimal parameter combination to minimize the area of buckling profile is obtained and verified using FE simulation. Results show that the AATWCRIHR after optimization doesn’t generate the buckling defect during constrained ring rolling, and it is proved that the quantitative buckling defect representation method and the optimization design method based on the response surface model and the finite element simulation results are feasible for the constrained ring rolling process of the AATWCRIHR.

The increasing prevalence of species that are detrimental to biodiversity is a major concern, particularly for managers of National Parks. To develop effective programs for controlling weeds, it is essential to have a thorough understanding of the extent and severity of infestations, as well as the contributing factors such as temperature, rainfall, and disturbance. Predicting these factors on a regional scale requires models that can incorporate a wide range of variables in a quantifiable manner, while also assisting with on-ground operations. In this study, we present two Bayesian Network models specifically designed for six significant weed species found along the southern coast of Australia. Our models are based on empirical data collected during a coastal weed survey conducted in 2015 and repeated in 2016. We applied these models to the coastal national parks in the isolated and pristine East Gippsland region. Importantly, the prediction models were developed at two different spatial scales that directly corresponded to the scale of the observations. Our findings indicate that coastal habitats, with their vulnerable environments and prevalence of open dune systems, are particularly susceptible to weed infestations. Moreover, adjacent regions also have the potential for colonization if these infestations are not effectively controlled. Climate-related factors play a role in moderating the potential for colonization, which is a significant concern for weed control efforts in the context of global climate change.

We propose a novel adaptive importance sampling scheme for Bayesian inversion problems where the inference of the variables of interest and the power of the data noise is split. More specifically, we consider a Bayesian analysis for the variables of interest (i.e., the parameters of the model to invert), whereas we employ a maximum likelihood approach for the estimation of the noise power. The whole technique is implemented by means of an iterative procedure, alternating sampling and optimization steps. Moreover, the noise power is also used as a tempered parameter for the posterior distribution of the the variables of interest. Therefore, a sequence of tempered posterior densities is generated, where the tempered parameter is automatically selected according to the actual estimation of the noise power. A complete Bayesian study over the model parameters and the scale parameter can be also performed. Numerical experiments show the benefits of the proposed approach.

This paper considers estimating the ratio of two distributions with different parameters and common supports. We consider a Bayesian approach based on the Log--Huber loss function which is resistant to outliers and useful to find robust M-estimators. We propose two different types of Bayesian density ratio estimators and compare their performance in terms of Bayesian risk function with themselves as well as the usual plug-in density ratio estimators. Some applications such as classification and divergence function estimation are addressed.

Technology development changes society and society demands new and innovative technology development. We analyze technology to understand society and technology itself. Many researches have been introduced in various fields. Most of them were about patent analysis. This is because detailed and accurate results of research and development are patented. In this paper, we study on new patent analysis method based on count data model and Bayesian regression analysis. Using count data model, we analyze the technological keywords extracted from the collected patent documents. We use the posterior distribution of Bayesian statistics to reflect the experience and knowledge of the relevant technological experts in the analysis model. Moreover, we apply the proposed model to finding sustainable technologies. Finding and developing sustainable technologies is an important activity for companies and research institutes to maintain their technological competitiveness. To illustrate how our modeling could be applied to real domain, we carry out a case study using the patent documents related to artificial intelligence.

This paper formulates the classic Monty Hall problem as a Bayesian game. Allowing Monty a small amount of freedom in his decisions facilitates a variety of solutions. The solution concept used is the Bayes Nash Equilibrium (BNE), and the set of BNE relies on Monty's motives and incentives. We endow Monty and the contestant with common prior probabilities (p) about the motives of Monty, and show that under certain conditions on p, the unique equilibrium is one where the contestant is indifferent between switching and not switching. This coincides and agrees with the typical responses and explanations by experimental subjects. Finally, we show that our formulation can explain the experimental results in Page (1998) [12]; that more people gradually choose switch as the number of doors in the problem increases.

Categorical variables are common in spatial data analysis. Traditional analytical methods for deriving probabilities of class occurrence, such as kriging-family algorithms, have been hindered by the discrete characteristics of categorical fields. This study introduces the theoretical backgrounds of linear Bayesian updating (LBU) approach for spatial classification through expert system. Transition probabilities are interpreted as expert opinions for updating the prior marginal probabilities of categorical response variables. The main objective of this paper is to present the solid theoretical foundations of LBU and provide a categorical random field prediction method which yields relatively higher classification accuracy compared with conventional Markov chain random field (MCRF) approach. A real-world case study has also been carried out to demonstrate the superiority of our method. Since the LBU idea is originated from aggregating expert opinions and not restricted to conditional independent assumption (CIA), it may prove to be reasonably adequate for analyzing complex geospatial data sets, like remote sensing images or area-class maps.

With the development of higher voltage power grid, the high and low voltage parallel loops are emerging, which lead to energy losses, even threaten the security and stability of power system. The multi-infeed HVDC configurations widely appearing in AC/DC interconnected power system make this situation even worse. Aimed at energy saving and system security, a decision optimization method for power grid operating condition with high and low voltage parallel loops is proposed in this paper. Firstly, considering hub substation distribution and power grid structure, parallel loop opening schemes are generated with GN algorithm. Then, candidate opening schemes are preliminarily selected from all these generated schemes based on a filtering index. Finally, with the influence on power system security, stability and operation economy in consideration, an evaluation model for candidate opening schemes is founded based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP). And a fuzzy evaluation algorithm is used to find the optimal scheme. Simulation results of New England 39-bus system and an actual power system validate the effectiveness and superiority of this proposed method.

In this paper, under the symmetric entropy and the scale squared error loss functions, we consider the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and Bayesian estimation of the Shannon entropy and Rényi entropy of the two-parameter inverse Weibull distribution. In the ML estimation, the dichotomy is used to solve likelihood equation. In addition, the approximation confidence interval is given by the Delta method. Because the form of estimation results is more complex in the Bayesian estimation, the Lindley approximation method is used to achieve the numerical calculation. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations and a real data set are used to illustrate the results derived. By comparing the mean square error between the estimated value and the real value, it can be found that the performance of ML estimation of Shannon entropy is better than that of Bayesian estimation, and there is no significant difference between the performance of ML estimation of Rényi entropy and that of Bayesian estimation.

Bayesian nonlinear mixed effects models for data in the form of continuous, repeated measurements from a population, also known as Bayesian hierarchical nonlinear models, are a popular platform for analysis when interest focuses on individual specific characteristics and relevant uncertainty quantification. Due to the limitation of computational power, this framework was relatively dormant until the late 1980s, but in recent years, the statistical research community saw vigorous development of new methodological and computational techniques for these models, the emergence of software, and wide application of the models in numerous industrial and academic fields. This article presents an overview of the formulation, interpretation, and implementation of Bayesian nonlinear mixed effects models and surveys recent advances and applications.

Colombia is the world's leading producer of mild washed arabica coffee and produces 12.6 million bags of green coffee, but at the same time 784,000 tons of waste biomass are dumped in open fields, of which only 5% is recovered or used. The objective of this project was to evaluate the production of platform chemicals from these coffee wastes. To achieve this, biomass characterization was carried out using proximate analysis, ultimate analysis and structural analysis. Hydrothermal valorization was carried out at a temperature range of 120-180 °C (LHW) and 180-260 °C (HTC) for one hour, the platform chemicals obtained were quantified by HPLC-IR, monitored by pH and conductivity, and the solid fraction was characterized by monitoring the functional groups in IR spectroscopy, and elemental analysis. Hydrolysis processes were obtained from 150 °C, production of platform chemicals from 180 °C and maximum concentration at 180 °C-4h, over 200 °C degradation of the products in the liquid fraction starts to take place. Homogeneous basic and acid catalysts were used to improve the yields of the reaction. The kinetics of the hydrolysis of lignocellulosic structures to sugars were also analyzed and described, and reaction orders of 1 (LHW), 3 (HTC) and their respective reaction rate equations were reported.

In this work, a hybrid component Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) approach for industrial sensor systems is established and analyzed, to provide a hybrid schema that combines the advantages and eliminates the drawbacks of both model-based and data-driven methods of diagnosis. Moreover, it shines the light on a new utilization of Random Forest (RF) together with model-based diagnosis, beyond its ordinary data-driven application. RF is trained and hyperparameter tuned using three-fold cross validation over a random grid of parameters using random search, to finally generate diagnostic graphs as the dynamic, data-driven part of this system. This is followed by translating those graphs into model-based rules in the form of if-else statements, SQL queries or semantic queries such as SPARQL, in order to feed the dynamic rules into a structured model essential for further diagnosis. The RF hyperparameters are consistently updated online using the newly generated sensor data to maintain the dynamicity and accuracy of the generated graphs and rules thereafter. The architecture of the proposed method is demonstrated in a comprehensive manner, and the dynamic rules extraction phase is applied using a case study on condition monitoring of a hydraulic test rig using time-series multivariate sensor readings.

In this work, A hybrid component Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) approach for industrial sensor systems is established and analyzed, to provide a hybrid schema that combines the advantages and eliminates the drawbacks of both model-based and data-driven methods of diagnosis. Moreover, spotting the light on a new utilization of Random Forest (RF) together with model-based diagnosis, beyond its ordinary data-driven application. RF is trained and hyperparameter tuned using 3-fold cross-validation over a random grid of parameters using random search, to finally generate diagnostic graphs as the dynamic, data-driven part of this system. Followed by translating those graphs into model-based rules in the form of if-else statements, SQL queries or semantic queries such as SPARQL, in order to feed the dynamic rules into a structured model essential for further diagnosis. The RF hyperparameters are consistently updated online using the newly generated sensor data, in order to maintain the dynamicity and accuracy of the generated graphs and rules thereafter. The architecture of the proposed method is demonstrated in a comprehensive manner, as well as the dynamic rules extraction phase is applied using a case study on condition monitoring of a hydraulic test rig using time series multivariate sensor readings.

Combining modern thermodynamics theory branches, including finite time thermodynamics or entropy generation minimization, constructal theory and entransy theory, with metallurgical process engineering, this paper provides a new exploration on generalized thermodynamic optimization theory for iron and steel production processes. The theoretical core is to thermodynamically optimize performances of elemental packages, working procedure modules, functional subsystems, and whole process of iron and steel production processes with real finite-resource and/or finite-size constraints with various irreversibilities toward saving energy, decreasing consumption, reducing emission and increasing yield, and to achieve the comprehensive coordination among the material flow, energy flow and environment of the hierarchical process systems. A series of application cases of the theory are reviewed. It can provide a new angle of view for the iron and steel production processes from thermodynamics, and can also provide some guidelines for other process industries.

This study examines the causal relationships between interest rates in the Korean financial market using a vector error correction model (VECM) and a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network, a novel approach in this context, identifies two distinct transmission channels: one led by call rates (reflecting monetary policy) and another by 10-year Treasury bond yields (reflecting fiscal policy). While the call rate channel aligns with traditional views, affecting bank lending rates, corporate bond spreads, and commercial paper rates, the 10-year Treasury yield channel highlights a separate fiscal policy transmission mechanism, influencing commercial paper rates indirectly through 30-year Treasury yields and directly impacting merchant bank lending rates. This finding suggests that fiscal intervention could potentially interfere with monetary policy, emphasizing the need for coordinated macroeconomic policy measures. The study also emphasizes the role of 10-year Treasury bonds as a benchmark in the Korean bond market, reflecting medium- to long-term economic outlooks and serving as the underlying asset for various derivatives.

Oral squamous cell carcinoma often arises from an oral potentially malignant disorder called oral leukoplakia (OL). With this work we aimed to develop a novel data-driven predictive model based on gene expression profiles to distinguish OL patients who underwent malignant transformation from those who did not. We used the Tree Augmented Naïve (TAN) Bayes classifier to predict the posterior probability of having oral cancer given the data. 86 patients were included with a median follow-up of 7.11 years. Fifty-one patients (51/86; 59%) underwent malignant transformation. We found that 16 genes were predictors of oral cancer in patients with OL and these included SLC7A11, SPINK6, SERPINA12, VIT, ATP1B3, CST6, FLRT2, ELMOD1, AZGP1, RNASE13, DIO2, ECM1, CYP4F11, SYTL4, AKR1C1, and AKR1C3. In conclusion, we showed that Bayesian gene networks are a data-driven approach which could be used also in other predictor models in oncology.

Lysine is the first limiting essential amino acid in rice because it is present in the lowest quantity compared to all the other amino acids. Amino acids are the building block of proteins and play an essential role in maintaining the human body’s healthy functioning. Rice is a staple food for large proportion of the global population, thus increasing the lysine content in rice will improve its nutritional value. In this paper, we studied the lysine biosynthesis pathway in rice (Oryza Sativa) to identify the regulators of the lysine reporter gene LYSA (LOC_Os02g24354). Genetically intervening at the regulators has the potential to increase the overall lysine content in rice. We modeled the lysine biosynthesis pathway in rice seedlings under normal and saline (NaCl) stress conditions using Bayesian networks. We estimated the model parameters using experimental data and identified the gene DAPF(LOC_Os12g37960) as a positive regulator of the lysine reporter gene LYSA under both normal and saline stress conditions. Based on this analysis, we conclude that the gene DAPF is a potent candidate for genetic intervention. Upregulating DAPF using methods such as CRISPR-Cas9 has the potential to upregulate the lysine reporter gene LYSA and increase the overall lysine content in rice.

The ability to smell is crucial for most species as it enables the detection of environmental threats like smoke, fosters social interactions, and contributes to the sensory evaluation of food and eating behavior. The high prevalence of smell disturbances throughout the life span calls for a continuous effort to improve tools for quick and reliable assessment of olfactory function. Odor-dispensing pens, called Sniffin' Sticks, are an established method to deliver olfactory stimuli during diagnostic evaluation. We tested the suitability of a Bayesian adaptive algorithm (QUEST) to estimate olfactory sensitivity using Sniffin' Sticks by comparing QUEST sensitivity thresholds with those obtained using a procedure based on an established standard staircase protocol. Thresholds were measured twice with both procedures in two sessions (Test and Retest). Overall, both procedures exhibited considerable overlap with QUEST displaying slightly higher test-retest correlations, less variability between measurements, and reduced testing duration. Notably, participants were more frequently presented with the highest concentration during the QUEST which may foster adaptation and habituation effects. We conclude that further research is required to better understand and optimize the procedure for assessment of olfactory performance.

Water pollution, intensified by the release of hard-to-degrade pollutants, poses severe threats to ecosystems, human health, and economic development. The existing advanced oxidation processes often involve high operational costs and may result in secondary pollution, highlighting the necessity for innovative and more sustainable solutions. To address these challenges, our study introduces a cost-effective and eco-friendly corona discharge barrier plasma discharger for wastewater treatment. Through the central composite design/response surface methodology, a high decolorization rate of 98% of methylene blue (MB) within 10 minutes was achieved by optimizing parameters such as pH and voltage. Furthermore, the mechanisms of the generation of reactive oxygen species via this device was discussed in detail and the degradation pathways of MB were described. Moreover, this device is also very energy-efficient, with a low energy density and electrical energy per order of 0.15 watt/mL and 5.79 kWh/m³/order, respectively. In conclusion, the plasma discharger developed in this study provides a cost-effective and environmentally sustainable solution for dye wastewater treatment. This research contributes significantly to the advancement of sustainable dye wastewater management practices, offering an innovative method that meets both environmental and economic objectives.

The current study compared the goodness of fit and estimation precision of Bayes and maximum likelihood (ML) structural equation modeling across sample sizes. Data consisted of Markov Chain Monte Carlo generated samples of 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, 200, 250, 500, 750, 1000, and 1500 observations. The Bayes and ML methods were used to estimate a structural equation model with 40 parameters, including 12 continuous observed indicators, four latent variables, and three structural paths. Analyses were conducted with the Mplus 8.0 statistical software and were replicated 500 times with each of the 22 conditions (11 sample sizes x 2 estimation methods). Indices of model fit were the Bayes information criterion, the Tucker-Lewis index, the comparative fit index, the root mean square error of approximation, the posterior predictive p-value (for Bayes models), and the ꭓ2 test (for ML models). Results showed that as the sample size increased, both estimation methods exhibited improved model fit and enhanced estimation precision, and both methods performed well with samples of 200 or larger; however, ML demonstrated a marginally superior fit with smaller samples. These findings were not consistent with previous research and suggest that ML remains a better choice with continuous data and small samples.

The general objective of the study is to analyze food insecurity determinants mainly related to food price at macro level. The study used a time series data from the year 1988 quarter one to 2018 quarter four. Our empirical finding on the macroeconomic model show the short term consequence of food price change is positive with food security (negative with food insecurity). The long term consequence of food price change is, however, negative with food security (positive with food insecurity) at macro level. From the variance decomposition, it can be learned that the speed by which the undernourished people decrease in number in the short term because of the inflation happened is higher than the speed by which the number of undernourished people increase in the long run. At macro level, concern should be made to the supply side for food security improvement.

Background: All Payer Claims Databases (APCD) are a rich source of health information, however, race and ethnicity (R&E) data are largely missing. Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) is a common R&E imputation method, yet, validation of BISG in APCDs is lacking. We used the BISG to impute missing R&E in the Oregon APCD. Methods: BISG imputed R&E for Asian Pacific Islanders (API), Blacks, Hispanics and Whites were contrasted to the gold standard (vital statistics) and sensitivity and specificity improvements were assessed. Logistic regression examined whether missing R&E was random across patient characteristics. Results: Among 85,857 individuals in the study, 32.1% (n=27,594) had missing R&E. Missing R&E was not randomly distributed. There were higher odds of missingness among males, Whites, those age 65 and older, and commercially insured individuals. Differences in the percent missing were also found by co-morbid conditions and mortality causes. Imputing the missing R&E with BISG method improved the sensitivity to identify White, Black, API, and Hispanics. Conclusions: APCDs can benefit from enhancing missing R&E with BISG imputation to perform more robust population-health level analyses and identify inequities according to R&E without losing power or dropping non-random records with missing R&E data.

In the present work, a predictive modelling and optimization with the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system(ANFIS) modelling of mechanical properties of laser-coated NB/SiC/Ni welds was studied based on Taguchi design by laser cladding. An ANFIS model based on a Sugeno type fuzzy inference system was developed for predicting the hardness properties of SiC/BN/Ni welds by laser cladding with experimental data required for network training and prediction. Based on analysis of variance, three important factors were taken as inputs for the fuzzy logic inferences, while the hardness properties was taken as the output of the ANFIS. The microstructure of welds were analysed using scanning electron microscopy with an energy dispersive X-Ray spectrometer. Highly developed leaf-like dendrites and eutectic crystals were found in some areas of the melting zone for the BN/SiC/Ni weld, which was significantly hardened. The ANFIS model based on Taguchi's design provides a better pattern of response because the predicted and experimental values were highly similar. As a result, a satisfactory result was achieved between the predicted and experimental values of hardness in laser-coated NB/SiC/Ni welds, whereby the success and validity of the method was verified.

This paper presents a scenario evolution model for maritime accidents using Bayesian networks (BN) to predict the most likely causes of specific types of maritime incidents. The BN nodes encompass accident type, life loss contingency, accident severity, the quarter and time period of the accident, and the type and gross tonnage of the ships involved. We analyzed 5,660 global maritime accidents from 2005 to 2020. Using Netica software, we constructed a Tree Augmented Network (TAN) model, accounting for interdependencies among risk influencing factors. We validated the results through sensitivity analysis and historical accident records. Forward causal inference and reverse diagnostic inference were then performed on each node variable to investigate the accident development trend and evolution process under predetermined conditions. The findings indicate that the model can effectively predict the likelihood of various accident scenarios under specific conditions, as well as the extrapolation of accident consequences. Forward causal reasoning reveals that general cargo ships with a gross tonnage of 1-18,500 t are most likely to experience collision, grounding, and stranding accidents in the first quarter. Reverse diagnostic reasoning indicates that during early morning hours, container ships, general cargo ships, and chemical ships with a tonnage of 1-18,500 t are less likely to involve life loss in the event of collision accidents.

The adoption of Machine Learning (ML) for building emulators for complex physical processes has seen an exponential rise in the recent years. While neural networks are good function approximators, optimizing the hyper-parameters of the network to reach a global minimum is not trivial, and often needs human knowl- edge and expertise. In this light, automatic ML or autoML methods have gained large interest as they automate the process of network hyper-parameter tuning. In addition, Neural Architecture Search (NAS) has shown promising outcomes for improving model performance. While autoML methods have grown in popularity for image, text and other applications, their effectiveness for high-dimensional, complex scientific datasets remains to be investigated. In this work, a data driven emulator for turbulence closure terms in the context of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) models is trained using Artificial Neural Networks and an autoML frame- work based on Bayesian Optimization, incorporating priors to jointly optimize the hyper-parameters as well as conduct a full neural network architecture search to converge to a global minima, is proposed. Additionally, we compare the effect of using different network weight initializations and optimizers such as ADAM, SGDM and RMSProp, to explore the best performing setting. Weight and function space similarities during the optimization trajectory are investigated, and critical differences in the learning process evolution are noted and compared to theory. We observe ADAM optimizer and Glorot initialization consistently performs better, while RMSProp outperforms SGDM as the latter appears to have been stuck at a local minima. Therefore, this autoML BayesOpt framework provides a means to choose the best hyper-parameter settings for a given dataset.

Advances in remote sensing have led to use of satellite-derived rainfall products to complement the sparse rain gauge data. Although globally derived and some regional bias corrected, these products often show large discrepancies with ground measurements attributed to local and external factors that require systematic consideration. Decreasing rain gauge network however inhibits continuous validation of these products. We propose to deal with this problem by the use of Bayesian approach to merge the existing historical rain gauge information to create a consistent satellite rainfall data that can be used for climate studies. Monthly Bayesian bias correction is applied to the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS v2) data to reduce systematic errors using a corresponding gridded (0.05°) rain gauge data over East Africa for a period of 33 (1981–2013) years of which 22 years are utilized to derive error fields which are then applied to an independent CHIRPS data for 11 years for validation. The bias correction is spatially and temporally assessed during the rainfall wet months of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and October–December (OND) in East Africa. Results show significant reduction of systematic errors at both monthly and yearly scales and harmonization of their cumulative distributions. Monthly statistics showed a reduction of RMSD (29–56)% and MAE (28–60)% and an increase of correlations (2–32) %, while yearly ones showed reductions of RMSD (9-23)%, and MAE (7–27)% and increase of correlations (4–77)% for MAM months, reduction of RMSD (15–35)% and MAE (16–41)% and increase in correlations (5–16)% for JJA months, and reduction of RMSD (3–35)% and MAE (9–32)% and increase of correlations (3–65)% for OND months. Systematic errors of corrected data were influenced by local processes especially over Lake Victoria and high elevated areas. Large-scale circulations induced errors were mainly during JJA and OND rainfall seasons and were reduced by the separation of anomalous years during training. The proposed approach is recommended for generating long-term data for climate studies where consistencies of errors can be assumed.

In this paper we perform numerous numerical studies for the problem of low-rank matrix completion. We compare the Bayesian approaches and a recently introduced de-biased estimator which provides a useful way to build confidence intervals of interest. From a theoretical viewpoint, the de-biased estimator comes with a sharp minimax-optimal rate of estimation error whereas the Bayesian approach reaches this rate with an additional logarithmic factor. Our simulation studies show originally interesting results that the de-biased estimator is just as good as the Bayesian estimators. Moreover, Bayesian approaches are much more stable and can outperform the de-biased estimator in the case of small samples. However, we also find that the length of the confidence intervals revealed by the de-biased estimator for an entry is absolutely shorter than the length of the considered credible interval. These suggest further theoretical studies on the estimation error and the concentration for Bayesian methods as they are being quite limited up to present.

Establishing an accurate mathematical model is the foundation of simulating the motion of marine vehicles and structures, and it is the basis of modeling-based control design. System identification from observed input-output data is a practical and powerful method. However, for modeling objects with different characteristics and known information, a single modeling framework can hardly meet the requirements of model establishment. Moreover, there are some challenges in system identification, such as parameter drift and overfitting. In this work, three robust methods are proposed for generating ocean hydrodynamic models based on Bayesian regression. Two Bayesian techniques, semi-conjugate linear regression and noisy input Gaussian process regression, are used for parametric and nonparametric gray-box modeling and black-box modeling. The experimental free-running tests of the KVLCC2 ship model and a multi-freedom wave energy converter (WEC) are used to validate the proposed Bayesian models. The results demonstrate that the proposed schemes for system identification of the ship and WEC have good generalization ability and robustness. Finally, the developed modeling methods are evaluated considering the aspects required conditions, operating characteristics and prediction accuracy.

This study presents a groundbreaking approach in the field of gaming AI, focusing on the classic game” Pacman” through the lens of DRL integrated with advanced optimization techniques. The core of the research involves adapting DRL models for” Pacman”, utilizing the ESO for hyper- parameter tuning. These novel adaptations significantly enhance the AI agent’s performance, demonstrating a remarkable improvement in adaptability, responsiveness, and efficiency within the game environment. A pivotal aspect of this research is the innovative integration of metaheuristic optimization techniques into the DRL framework, a first in the domain of Atari gaming AI. This integration has proven essential in fine-tuning the DRL models, leading to a more effective and dynamic gaming experience. The study thoroughly evaluates and compares the performance of these algorithms, providing empirical support for their effectiveness and setting a new benchmark in AI-driven game development. The implications of this research extend beyond gaming AI, opening up possibilities for future exploration in several directions. Expanding DRL models to other complex gaming environments, continuous algorithmic enhancements, real-time learning adaptations, and applying these principles to robotics and autonomous vehicles are examples. The research also emphasizes ethical and responsible AI use in gaming to address fairness and addiction issues.

The present study analyzed the effect of temperature, pH, retention time, pretreatment and mixing ratio on the anerobic digestion process. The parameters during the anaerobic co digestion of cow manure and food waste were then optimized using the Taguchi experimental design method. ANOVA is carried out to find the significant parameters which influence the biogas production. Experimental tests were carried out at laboratory scale reactors kept at different temperatures (28 °C, 35 °C, and 50 °C). The specific methanogenic Performance (SMP) during anerobic digestion at higher temperatures was characterized with the analysis of acetate, propionate, butyrate, hydrogen, glucose, and formate. The improvement of biogas production with different pre-treatment i.e., ultrasonic, autoclave, and microwave techniques also analysed. The results showed that reactor that maintained at 35 °C showed the highest biogas production. While the reactor that maintained at lower temperature (28 °C) produced the lower volume of biogas. As the retention time increases, the amount of biogas produced increases. Methanogenic activities of microorganisms reduced at higher temperature conditions (65 °C). Biogas production increased by 28.1%, 20.23%, and 13.27 % when the of substrates treated with ultrasonic, autoclave, and microwave, respectively, compared to the untreated substrate. The optimized condition for the highest biogas production during anaerobic co digestion of food waste and cow manure is temperature of 35 °C, pH of 7 and mixing ratio (CM: FW=1.5:0.5). ANOVA showed that temperature is the most important input parameter affecting biogas production, followed by mixing ratio.

For marine vessels, a propeller shaft system, also known as a propulsion shaft system, is an essential changer in engine torque and propeller thrust. The propeller shaft system is subjected to transverse, longitudinal, and torsional excitations during operation. These sources of excitations originate from alternating thrust generated by the propeller, operation of a propeller in a stern flow field which is non-uniform in time and space, misalignment of components such as shafts, bearings, and keyholes in the assembly, excitations in the form of rotational motion, and the whirling motion of the shafts. These dynamic excitations posed a challenging issue for the integrity and reliability of a marine vehicle. Thus, it is crucial to analyze the dynamic response of the propulsion shaft system. The dynamic analysis of the propulsion shaft system is typically conducted using numerical /analytical models. At present, Finite Element Model (FEM) as a numerical model plays a vital role in analyzing the dynamic response of the structure. The computed response and the modal parameters from the FE model are reliable only if accurate boundary conditions, such as stiffness, can be imposed on the model. However, the numerical FE model deviates from the experimental results because of uncertainties in the stiffness values of the bearings and other connectors. This paper uses the Response Surface Optimization (RSO) technique to estimate the unknown stiffness of the bearings used in the propulsion shaft system. The experimental model of the propeller shaft system is constructed from the steady-state response of the system using the step sine excitation. The natural frequencies and the amplitude of vibrations in the FE model are updated using the parametric RSO technique. The updated model shows that the difference in natural frequencies and vibration amplitude is less than 10% between the optimized and experimental models. Propeller Shaft, Vibrations, Optimization, Response Surface

Sparse direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation of wideband signal has attracted widespread researches for its unique high-resolution performance. Numerous existing methods based on sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) don’t possess the ability to enhance sparsity even if they have already enjoyed high favor among sparse recovery approaches. In view of this, we propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian prior framework that enhance sparsity evidently and derive its corresponding iterative algorithm. On analysis, the computational complexity of the iterative are less than most existing other state-of-the-art algorithms. Not only that, proposed method possesses high angular estimation precision and sparsity performance by utilizing joint sparsity of multiple measure vector (MMV) models. Last but not least, the method obtains the ability to stabilize the estimated values between different frequencies or snapshots such that flat spatial spectrum. Extensive simulation results are presented to prove the superior performance of our methods

We find at least 4 quantum properties that are indeed universal in some number systems; and we can use them for quantum consciousness. Using the sets B={0,1}, N, Z, or Q has the +4 quantum properties that one can trust, as archetypes of easy communication to friends and foes, to ignoranti or cognoscenti, and for quantum computing. This paper proposes the use of Bayesian geometry to reduce the space of possible results, reducing or increasing initial beliefs by successive experimentation. This is exemplified in biology and mathematics, and can be applied to physics and other sciences. The conclusion is that an experimental fact can be absolutely verified. Any mathematical choice (as verified by computers) militating against R=Q, is under an absolutely low chance to succeed. Infinitesimals are denied based on 3^16 independent factors. This is not a probabilistic result, but based on reduction of the Bayes geometry for updating beliefs. This work applies to non-probabilistic and unknown phenomena, such as those found in oscillations (neutrino, health), evolution, and quantum computing, denies Gödel's uncertainty, and solves the liar's paradox by reflection. This connects different scientific fields with one another, in an internet, i.e., in a network of connections of multiple open networks, using the set Q, resembling a hologram, and includes entanglement.

The description of stellar interiors remains as a big challenge for the nuclear astrophysics community. The consolidated knowledge is restricted to density regions around the saturation of hadronic matter $\rho _{0} = 2.8\times 10^{14} {\rm\ g\ cm^{-3}}$, regimes where our nuclear models are successfully applied. As one moves towards higher densities and extreme conditions up to five to twenty times $\rho_{0}$, little can be said about the microphysics of such obejects. Here, we employ an MCMC strategy in order to access the variability of polytropic three-pircewised models for neutron star equation of states. With a fixed description of the hadronic matter we explore a variety of models for the high density regimes leading to stellar masses up to 2.5 $M_{\odot}$. In addition, we also discuss the use of a Bayesian power regression model with heteroscedastic error. The set of EoS from LIGO was used as inputs and treated as data set for testing case.

This pandemic of COVID-19 is tedious to control. The only lockdown is the way to stop the spread of this infection. Conventional health care is facing a real challenge to operate. Primarily the challenge is to provide health care support for COVID-19 patients with limited resources and continue the health care services like earlier.Perhaps, this challenge is the same but magnitude is different from different geographical locations around the globe. In this article, we presented a Bayesian algorithm with the Code to predict cancer death due to COVID-19. This code is possible to run at different time points and different geographical locations around the world. This code will help us to get the best strategy and shift the treatment option for cancer treatment. The model would provide physicians with an objective tool for counseling and decision making at different hotspots and small areas to implement.

This paper investigates an inverse problem of option pricing in the extended Black--Scholes model. We identify the model coefficients from the measured data and attempt to find arbitrage opportunities in financial markets using a Bayesian inference approach. The posterior probability density function of the parameters is computed from the measured data. The statistics of the unknown parameters are estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which explores the posterior state space. The efficient sampling strategy of MCMC enables us to solve inverse problems by the Bayesian inference technique. Our numerical results indicate that the Bayesian inference approach can simultaneously estimate the unknown drift and volatility coefficients from the measured data.

This research endeavors to illuminate the path toward efficient and optimized propeller design by delving into the realm of aerodynamics. Propellers, as vital mechanical marvels, constitute the core of numerous propulsion systems, spanning from aircraft and marine vessels to wind turbines. The pursuit of enhanced propeller efficiency and performance holds paramount importance in industries where propulsion assumes a critical role, underscoring the indispensable need for a profound understanding of aerodynamics. Through meticulously crafted theoretical insights and their practical applications, this study embarks on a journey into the fascinating realm of propeller aerodynamics. While the paper primarily addresses the aerodynamic aspects of propeller design and optimization, it serves as a foundational guide for those seeking to comprehend the intricacies of propeller engineering.The research journey commences with an in-depth exploration of the fundamental principles governing propeller performance. It unveils the intricate dynamics of airflow surrounding propeller blades, shedding light on their proficiency in generating thrust, lift, and torque. The bedrock of the theoretical insights is a comprehensive analysis encompassing airfoil profiles, blade geometry, and the underlying principles of blade element theory. In navigating the ensuing pages, the study embarks on the task of demystifying the intricate methods and calculations that propel the design and optimization of propellers. Leveraging cutting-edge methodologies, the research systematically assesses the aerodynamic characteristics of propellers across various operational conditions. These invaluable insights empower the tailoring of propeller designs with precision, aligning them seamlessly with specific performance objectives. The aim is not only to impart a comprehensive understanding of propeller aerodynamics but also to provide actionable insights for engineers and researchers striving to enhance propeller efficiency. This research endeavor serves as a guiding light for both propeller enthusiasts and professionals alike. It not only enriches the broader discourse on propeller technology but also equips readers with the requisite knowledge and tools to embark on their own quests for optimized propeller design. As propulsion technologies continue their evolution, the steadfast principles elucidated herein will persist, guiding future innovations and advancements in the realm of propeller engineering. This paper serves as a profound resource, offering new researchers a comprehensive understanding of propellers and their intricate design processes.

Mixing is considered as a critical process parameter (CPP) during process development due to its significant influence on reaction selectivity and process safety. Nevertheless, mixing issues are difficult to identify and solve owing to their complexity and dependence on knowledge of kinetics and hydrodynamics. In this paper, we proposed an optimization methodology using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) based compartmental modelling to improve mixing and reaction selectivity. More importantly, we have demonstrated that through the implementation of surrogate-based optimization, the proposed methodology can be used as a computationally non-intensive way for rapid process development of reaction unit operations. For illustration purpose, reaction selectivity of a process with Bourne competitive reaction network is discussed. Results demonstrate that we can improve reaction selectivity by dynamically controlling rates and locations of feeding in the reactor. The proposed methodology incorporates mechanistic understanding of the reaction kinetics together with an efficient optimization algorithm to determine the optimal process operation and thus can serve as a tool for quality-by-design (QbD) during product development stage.

The growing attention for plug-in electric vehicles, and the associated high-performance demands, have initiated a development trend towards highly efficient and compact on-board battery chargers. These isolated ac-dc converters are most commonly realized using two conversion stages, combining a non-isolated power factor correction (PFC) rectifier with an isolated dc-dc converter. This, however, involves two loss stages and a relatively high component count, limiting the achievable efficiency and power density and resulting in high costs. In this paper a single-stage converter approach is analyzed to realize a single-phase ac-dc converter, combining all functionalities into one conversion stage and thus enabling a cost-effective efficiency and power density increase. The converter topology consists of a quasi-lossless synchronous rectifier followed by an isolated dual active bridge (DAB) dc-dc converter, putting a small filter capacitor in between. To show the performance potential of this bidirectional, isolated ac-dc converter, a comprehensive design procedure and multi-objective optimization with respect to efficiency and power density is presented, using detailed loss and volume models. The models and procedures are verified by a 3.7 kW hardware demonstrator, interfacing a 400 V dc-bus with the single-phase 230 V, 50 Hz utility grid. Measurement results indicate a state-of-the-art efficiency of 96.1% and power density of 2.2 kW/dm³, confirming the competitiveness of the investigated single-stage DAB ac-dc converter.

Evidence-based data for endometriosis management are limited. Experiments are excluded without adequate animal models. Data are limited to symptomatic women and occasional observations. Hormonal medical therapy cannot be blinded if recognised by the patient. Randomised controlled trials are not realistic for surgery since a variable disease with low numbers. Each diagnosis and treatment is an experiment with an outcome and experience is Bayesian updating from the past. If the experience of many is similar, this has more value than an opinion. The combined experience of a group of endometriosis surgeons was used to discuss problems in the management of endometriosis. Considering endometriosis as several genetically/epigenetically different diseases is important for medical therapy. Imaging cannot exclude endometriosis and diagnostic accuracy is limited for superficial lesions, deep lesions, and cystic corpora lutea. Surgery should not be avoided for emotional reasons. Shifting infertility treatment to IVF without considering fertility surgery is questionable. The concept of complete excision should be reconsidered. Surgeons should introduce quality control and teaching should move to explain why it is done. The perception of information has a personal bias. These are the major problems in the management of endometriosis identified by the combined experience of endometriosis surgeons.

Chronic non-cancer pain is a highly debilitating condition affecting approximately 20% of the global population. Chronic pain may lead to significant physical disability, emotional distress, social isolation and financial burden. Whilst^. pharmacological therapies remain the cornerstone of pain management in non-cancerous chronic pain, factors including the current opioid epidemic have led to non-pharmacological techniques becoming a more attractive proposition. We explored the prevalence of medical device use and their treatment efficacy in non-cancer pain management. A systematic methodology was developed, peer reviewed and published in PROSPERO (CRD42021235384). Key words of medical device, pain management devices, chronic pain, lower back pain, back pain, leg pain and chronic pelvic pain using Science direct, PubMed, Web of Science, PROSPERO, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PorQuest and ClinicalTrials.gov. All clinical trials, epidemiology and mixed methods studies that reported the use of medical devices for non-cancer chronic pain management published between the 1^st of January 1990 and the 30^th of April 2022 were included. 13 studies were included in systematic review, of these 6 were used in the meta-analysis with 173 participants. Our meta-analysis for pain reduction in each study showed that transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation combined with instrument-assisted soft tissue mobilization treatment and pulsed electromagnetic therapy produced significant treatment on chronic lower back pain patients. Pooled evidence revealed the use of medical device related interventions resulted in 0.7 degree of pain reduction under a 0-10 scale. Significant improvement in disability scores, with a 7.44 degree reduction in disability level compared to a placebo using a 50 score range was also seen. The application of medical devices in patients with chronic pain has gained popularity due to increasingly cost effective techniques, minimally invasiveness and greater awareness of risks associated with pharmacological management. Our analysis has shown that the optimal use of medical devices in a sustainable manner requires further extensive research, needing larger cohort studies with greater gender parity, in a more diverse range of geographical locations.

The fatigue life of concrete is affected by many interwoven factors whose effect is nonlinear. Be-cause of its unique self-learning ability and strong generalization capability, the Bayesian regu-larized backpropagation neural network (BR-BPNN) is proposed to predict concrete behavior in tensile fatigue. The optimal model was determined through various combinations of network parameters. The average relative impact value (ARIV) was constructed to evaluate the correla-tion between fatigue life and its influencing parameters (maximum stress level Smax, stress ratio R, static strength f, failure probability P). ARIV results were also compared with other factor as-sessment methods (weight equation and multiple linear regression analyses). Using BR-BPNN, S-N curves were then obtained for the combinations of R=0.1, 0.2, 0.5; f=5, 6, 7MPa; P=5%, 50%, 95%. The tensile fatigue results under different testing conditions were finally compared for compatibility. It was concluded that Smax has the most significant negative effect on fatigue life; the degree of influence of R, P, and f, which positively correlate with fatigue life, decreases suc-cessively. ARIV is confirmed as a feasible way to analyze the importance of parameters and could be recommended for future applications. The tensile fatigue performance of plain concrete under different stress states (flexural tension, axial tension, splitting tension) does not differ sig-nificantly. Besides utilizing the valuable fatigue test data scattered in the literature, insights gained from this work could provide a reference for subsequent fatigue test program design and fatigue evaluation.

Rapid post-earthquake damage diagnosis of bridges can guide decision-making for emergency response management and recovery. This can be facilitated using digital technologies to remove the barriers of manual post-event inspections. Prior mechanics-based Finite Element (FE) models can be used for post-event response simulation using the measured ground motions at nearby stations; however, the damage assessment outcomes would suffer from uncertainties in structural and soil material properties, input excitations, etc. For instrumented bridges, these uncertainties can be reduced by integrating sensory data with prior models through a model updating approach. This study presents a sequential Bayesian model updating technique, through which a linear/nonlinear FE model, including soil-structure interaction effects, and the foundation input motions are jointly identified from measured acceleration responses. The efficacy of the presented model updating technique is first examined through a numerical verification study. Then, seismic data recorded from the San Rogue Canyon Bridge in California are used for a real-world case study. Comparison between the free-field and the foundation input motions reveals valuable information regarding the soil-structure interaction effects at the bridge site. Moreover, the reasonable agreement between the recorded and estimated bridge responses shows the potentials of the presented model updating technique for real-world applications. The updated FE model is considered as the digital twin of the bridge and can be used to analyze the bridge and monitor the structural response at element, section, and fiber levels to diagnose the location and severity of any potential damage mechanism.

Construction projects are usually operating in a complex and dynamic environment in which the accumulation of many interrelated factors causes high uncertainty. Construction projects are complex and frequently involve substantial uncertainties including process complicatedness, intricate organization structure, dynamic environment, and financial strain. The study aims to categorize the influencing factors into three groups, namely construction project system, economic-market climate, and external environment. It attempts to adopt a novel analysis tool to examine the relationship between the project cost and multiple influencing factors by using Bayesian SEM. While the Bayesian SEM method has been receiving increasing attention in exploring the relationship between latent variables, construction studies still heavily rely on the covariance-based SEM approach. This study introduces several advantages of Bayesian SEM that make it more flexible and powerful than covariance-based SEM and provides the foundation of Bayesian SEM estimation and inference by illustrating this method in a project cost application.

Construction projects are usually operating in a complex and dynamic environment in which the accumulation of many interrelated factors causes high uncertainty. Construction projects are complex and frequently involve substantial uncertainties including process complicatedness, intricate organization structure, dynamic environment, and financial strain. The study aims to categorize the influencing factors into three groups, namely construction project system, economic-market climate, and external environment. It attempts to adopt a novel analysis tool to examine the relationship between the project cost and multiple influencing factors by using Bayesian SEM. While the Bayesian SEM method has been receiving increasing attention in exploring the relationship between latent variables, construction studies still heavily rely on the covariance-based SEM approach. This study introduces several advantages of Bayesian SEM that make it more flexible and powerful than covariance-based SEM and provides the foundation of Bayesian SEM estimation and inference by illustrating this method in a project cost application.

Bayesian analysis for masked data under competing risk frameworks is studied for the purpose of assessing the impact of covariates on the hazard functions when the failure time is exactly observed for some subjects but only known to lie in an interval of time for the remaining subjects. Such data, known as partly interval-censored data, usually result from periodic inspection. Dirichlet and Gamma processes are assumed as priors for masking probabilities and baseline hazards. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is employed for the implementation of the Bayesian approach. The effectiveness of the proposed model is tested through numerical studies, including simulated and real data sets.

The multiobjective optimization problem is a key research direction in the field of optimization. Based on the multivariant optimization algorithm (MOA), this paper puts forward a multiobjective multivariant optimization algorithm (MMOA). A good point set is adopted for population initialization and to ensure the homogeneity of the initial solution set and avoid prematurity; global atoms are acquired by non-dominated sorting and an external archiving strategy; a nonlinear search radius is designed to balance global and local searches and enhance the convergence precision of the algorithm. Levy Flight and Sine chaotic mapping are introduced to redesign the update formula for local atoms, increase the convergence rate of the algorithm, and boost the optimization efficiency. Comparative experiments are conducted between MMOA and NSGA-II, MOEA/D, NSWOA, MOGWO, NSMFO on multiobjective test functions and an engineering example. The simulation results show that MMOA has superior convergence and diversity to the other five algorithms.

Portfolio optimization is a mathematical formulation whose objective is to maximize returns while minimizing risks. A lot of improvement in the model has been made, including adding practical constraints. With the growing of shares trading, the problem becomes dimensionally very large. In this paper, we propose the usage of modified Biogeography-Based Optimization to solve the large scale constrained portfolio optimization. Results indicate the effectiveness of the method used.

Limited accessibility in some parts of Indonesia causes difficulties in logistic distribution, especially for emergency and medical supplies. Emerging drone cargo technology is a potential solution to improve logistic distribution in those areas. However, implementing drone cargo technology involves unknown risks, both in technical and non-technical aspects. Since data on drone operations in Indonesia is limited, a new method is explored to build a Bayesian Network (BN) model for risk analysis of drone crashes in Indonesia’s outermost and underdeveloped areas. The method optimizes the modelling process, in which significant risk factors are selected based on three drone operator companies’ experiences, which include wind speed, rain intensity, and system component failure or malfunction. Real wind speed and rain probability data are then implemented in the model. The operator’s data shows that wind speed contributes to drone crashes, which can be appropriately modelled in the BN model. The model produced a probability of safe operation of 94.1%, comparable to the annual operator’s data. The result shows that most operations are safe, with a minimum case of crashing and no case of harming human life.

This paper presents the five-parameter Exponentiated Weibull Weibull (EWW) distribution with Weibull base failure rate parameterization, developed to model the dropout times of students in an online class module. Parameters of the model were estimated using both Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian estimation procedures to determine the most effective estimation method. Simulation results indicate that, across various hazard types and censoring levels, Bayesian estimates are more accurate and precise than Maximum Likelihood estimates. Real-life data analysis of online students module presentation supports these findings, showing significantly lower standard deviations for Bayesian estimates compared to Maximum Likelihood estimates, highlighting the efficiency of Bayesian estimation for the EWW distribution. Additionally, a comparative goodness-of-fit analysis demonstrated that the EWW distribution better fits the student dropout times dataset than Weibull Weibull (WW), Weibull Exponential (WE), and Exponential Weibull (EW) distributions. The median dropout time estimated using the EWW distribution is 24 days, suggesting that instructors should closely monitor student attendance around this period.

Vibration signal analysis is regarded as a fundamental approach in diagnosing faults in rolling bearings, and recent advancements have shown notable progress in this domain. However, the presence of substantial background noise often results in the masking of these fault signals, posing a significant challenge for researchers. In response, an Adaptive Denoising Autoencoder (ADAE) approach is proposed in this paper. The data representations are learned by the encoder through convolutional layers, while the data reconstruction is performed by the decoder using deconvolutional layers. Both the encoder and decoder incorporate adaptive shrinkage units to simulate denoising functions, effectively removing interfering information while preserving sensitive fault features. Additionally, dropout regularization is applied to sparsify the network and prevent overfitting, thereby enhancing the overall expressive power of the model. To further enhance ADAE's noise resistance, shortcut connections are added. Evaluation using publicly available datasets under scenarios with known and unknown noise demonstrates that ADAE effectively enhances the signal-to-noise ratio in strongly noisy backgrounds, facilitating accurate diagnosis of faults in rolling bearings.