Machine learning methods have been a standard approach to select features that are associated with an outcome and build a prediction model when the number of candidate features is large. LASSO has been one of the most popular approaches to this end. LASSO approach selects features with large regression estimates, rather than based on statistical significance, associating the outcome, by imposing L1-norm penalty to overcome the high dimensionality of the candidate features. As a result, LASSO may select insignificant features while possibly missing significant ones. Furthermore, from our experience, LASSO has been found to select too many features. By selecting features that are not associated with the outcome, we may have to spend more cost to collect and manage them in the future use of a fitted prediction model. Using the combination of L1- and L2-norm penalties, elastic net (EN) tends to select more features than LASSO. The overly selected features that are not associated with the outcome act like white noise, so that the fitted prediction model loses the prediction accuracy. In this paper, we propose to use the standard regression methods (without any penalizing approach) with stepwise variable selection procedure to overcome these issues. Unlike LASSO and EN, this method selects features based on statistical significance. Through extensive simulations, we show that this maximum likelihood estimation based method selects very small number of features while maintaining a high prediction power, while LASSO and EN make a large number of false selections to result in loss of prediction accuracy. Contrary to LASSO and EN, the regression methods combined with a stepwise variable selection method is a standard statistical method, so that any biostatistician can use it to analyze high dimensional data even without advanced bioinformatics knowledge.

Estimating parameters for multiple datasets can be time consuming, especially when the number of datasets is large. One solution is to sample from multiple datasets simultaneously using Bayesian methods such as adaptive multiple importance sampling (AMIS). Here we use the AMIS approach to fit a von Misses distribution to multiple datasets for wind trajectories derived from a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model driven from a 3D meteorological data. The primary objective is to characterise the uncertainties in wind trajectories in a form that can be used as inputs for predictive models of wind-dispersed insect pests and pathogens of agricultural crops for use in evaluating risk and in planning mitigation actions. Our results show that AMIS can significantly improve the efficiency of parameter inference for multiple datasets.

In his best-selling book An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, W. Feller established a way of ending the St. Petersburg Paradox by the introduction of an entrance fee, and provided it for the case in which the game is played with a fair coin. A natural generalization of his method is to establish the entrance fee for the case in which the probability of head is θ (0 < θ < 1/2). The deduction of those fees is the main result of Section 2. We then propose a Bayesian approach to the problem. When the probability of head is θ (1/2 < θ < 1) the expected gain of the St. Petersburg Game is finite, therefore there is no paradox. However, if one takes θ as a random variable assuming values in (1/2,1) the paradox may hold, what is counter-intuitive. On Section 3 we determine a necessary and sufficient condition for the absence of paradox on the Bayesian approach and on Section 4 we establish the entrance fee for the case in which θ is uniformly distributed in (1/2,1), for in this case there is paradox.

Semi-continuous data are very common in the social science and economics. In this paper, a Bayesian variable selection procedure is developed to assess the influence of exogenous factors including observed and unobserved on the semi-continuous data. Our formulation is based on the two-part latent variable model with polytomous response. We consider two schemes for the penalties of regression coefficients and factor loadings: the Bayesian spike and slab bimodal prior and the Bayesian lasso prior. Within the Bayesian framework, we implement Markov Chains Monte Carlo sampling method to conduct posterior inference. To facilitate posterior sampling, we recast the logistic model in part one as the norm-like mixture model. Gibbs sampler is designed to draw observations from the posterior. Our empirical results show that with suitable hyper-parameters, the spike and slab bimodal method slightly outperforms the Bayesian lasso in the current analysis. Finally, a real example related to the China household finance survey is analyzed to illustrate the application of the methodology.. .

ACL instability poses a significant challenge in traumatology and orthopedic medicine, often requiring accurate diagnosis for appropriate treatment. While the pivot-shift test offers a crucial means of assessment, its reliance on subjective interpretation underscores the need for supplementary imaging studies. This study aims to address this limitation by developing a Bayesian classification algorithm tailored for integration into a mobile application. Using the built-in inertial sensors of smartphones, this new approach aims to dynamically evaluate rotational stability during knee examinations. Orthopedic specialists conducted knee evaluations on 52 subjects, with subsequent analysis revealing interesting insights. Intraobserver and interobserver analyses, as measured by ICC, demonstrated strong agreement both in terms of timing between maneuvers (ICC = 0.94) and signal amplitude (ICC = 0.71-0.66). Notably, the Bayesian algorithm successfully classified 95% of joint hypermobility cases, with an additional 7 cases of hyperlaxity identified by the Pivot-Shift Meter (PSM). These findings highlight the practicality and effectiveness of implementing a Bayesian classification algorithm within a mobile application for assessing and categorizing signals captured by smartphone inertial sensors during the pivot-shift test.

Fitting parameters on spline curves produces more parsimonious models, maintaining fit quality. Smoothing the splines reduces predictive variance. Individual splines are often fit by type of variable, e.g., in age-period-cohort models. Linear and cubic splines are most common. Several smoothing criteria have been used for parameter curves, with cubic splines fit by constraining the integral of splines’ squared-second derivatives popular recently. Constraining the sum of squared second differences for linear splines is analogous. Generally the degree of smoothing is selected using cross-validation. Known spline dummy-variable matrices allow regression estimation of splines, with smoothing done via constrained regression. Smoothing criteria based on sums of squares or absolute values of parameters, as in ridge regression or LASSO, improves predictive accuracy and produces splines similar to smoothing by second-derivative constraints. Variables with very low t-statistics represent points where curve-shapes barely change. Eliminating those variables leaves knots concentrated where spline shapes change. A Bayesian version of this puts shrinkage priors on spline parameters. This yields realistic joint parameter distributions, avoids problems associated with using cross-validation for parameter estimation, and readily expands to non-linear modeling, such as interactions among variable types. Regularized regression and Bayesian spline methods are compared for two example datasets.

Energy Measurement and Verification (M&V) aims to make inferences about the savings achieved in energy projects, given the data and other information at hand. Traditionally, a frequentist approach has been used to quantify these savings and their associated uncertainties. We demonstrate that the Bayesian paradigm is an intuitive, coherent, and powerful alternative framework within which M&V can be done. Its advantages and limitations are discussed, and two examples from the industry-standard International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP) are solved using the framework. Bayesian analysis is shown to describe the problem more thoroughly and yield richer information and uncertainty quantification than the standard methods while not sacrificing model simplicity. We also show that Bayesian methods can be more robust to outliers. Bayesian alternatives to standard M&V methods are listed, and examples from literature are cited.

The generation of different types of defective viral genomes (DVG) is an unavoidable consequence of the error-prone replication of RNA viruses. In recent years, a particular class of DVGs, those containing long deletions or genome rearrangements, has gain interest due to their potential therapeutic and biotechnological applications. Identifying such DVGs in high-throughput sequencing data has become an interesting computational problem. Up to nowadays, several algorithms have been proposed, though all incur in false positives, a problem of practical interest if such DVGs have to be synthetized and tested in the laboratory. Here we develop a novel software, DVGfinder, that wraps the two most commonly used algorithms into a pipeline that predicts DVGs. Using a gradient boosting classifier machine learning algorithm, we evaluate the performance of DVGfinder compared to previous algorithms and found that it outcompetes their precision and sensitivity in simulated datasets. DVGfinder generates user-friendly output files in HTML format that can assist users to identify DVGs based on their associated probability of being true positives.

Machine learning forks into three main branches such as supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and reinforcement learning where reinforcement learning is much potential to artificial intelligence (AI) applications because it solves real problems by progressive process in which possible solutions are improved and finetuned continuously. The progressive approach, which reflects ability of adaptation, is appropriate to the real world where most events occur and change continuously and unexpectedly. Moreover, data is getting too huge for supervised learning and unsupervised learning to draw valuable knowledge from such huge data at one time. Bayesian optimization (BO) models an optimization problem as a probabilistic form called surrogate model and then directly maximizes an acquisition function created from such surrogate model in order to maximize implicitly and indirectly the target function for finding out solution of the optimization problem. A popular surrogate model is Gaussian process regression model. The process of maximizing acquisition function is based on updating posterior probability of surrogate model repeatedly, which is improved after every iteration. Taking advantages of acquisition function or utility function is also common in decision theory but the semantic meaning behind BO is that BO solves problems by progressive and adaptive approach via updating surrogate model from a small piece of data at each time, according to ideology of reinforcement learning. Undoubtedly, BO is a reinforcement learning algorithm with many potential applications and thus it is surveyed in this research with attention to its mathematical ideas. Moreover, the solution of optimization problem is important to not only applied mathematics but also AI.

Bootstrap resampling techinques, introduced by Efron and Rubin, can be presented in a general Bayesian framework, approximating the statistical distribution of a statistical functional φ(F), where F is a random distribution function. Efron’s and Rubin’s bootstrap procedures can be extended introducing an informative prior through the Proper Bayesian bootstrap. In this paper different bootstrap techniques are used and compared in predictive classification and regression models based on ensemble approaches, i.e. bagging models involving decision trees. Proper Bayesian bootstrap, proposed by Muliere and Secchi, is used to sample the posterior distribution over trees, introducing prior distributions on the covariates and the target variable. The results obtained are compared with respect to other competitive procedures employing different bootstrap techniques. The empirical analysis reports the results obtained on simulated and real data.

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) stands as a pivotal technological stride toward a sustainable future, with the practice of injecting supercritical CO2 into subsurface formations having already been an established practice for enhanced oil recovery operations. The overarching objective of CCS is to protract the operational viability and sustainability of platforms and oilfields, thereby facilitating a seamless transition towards sustainable practices. This study introduces a comprehensive framework for optimizing well placements in CCS operations, employing a derivative-free method known as Bayesian optimization. The development plan is tailored for scenarios featuring aquifers devoid of flow boundaries, incorporating production wells tasked with controlling pressure buildup and injection wells dedicated to CO2 sequestration. Notably, the wells operate under group control, signifying predefined injection and production targets and constraints that must be adhered to throughout the project’s lifespan. As a result, the objective function remains invariant under specific permutations of the well locations. Our investigation delves into the efficacy of Bayesian optimization under the introduced permutation invariance. The results reveal that it demonstrates critical efficiency in handling the optimization task extremely fast. In essence, this study advocates for the efficacy of Bayesian optimization in the context of optimizing well placements for CCS operations, emphasizing its potential as a preferred methodology for enhancing sustainability in the energy sector.

Abstract: Type A acute aortic dissection is a serious condition within the acute aortic syndromes that demands immediate treatment. Despite advancements in diagnostic and referral pathways, the survival rate post-surgery currently sits at almost 20%. Our objective was to pinpoint clinical indicators for mortality and morbidity, particularly raised arterial lactate as a key factor for negative outcomes. Methods: All patients referred to the three cardiovascular centres between January 2005 and December 2022 were included in the study. The inclusion criteria required the presence of a lesion involving the ascending aorta, symptoms within 7 days of surgery, and referral for primary surgical repair of TAAAD based on recommendations, with consideration for other concomitant major cardiac surgical procedures needed during TAAAD and retrograde extension of TAAAD. We conducted an analysis of both continuous and categorical variables and utilized predictive mean matching to fill in missing numeric features. For missing binary variables, we used logistic regression to impute values. We specifically targeted early postoperative mortality and employed LASSO regression to minimize potential collinearity of over-fitting variables and variables measured from the same patient. Results: 633 patients were recruited for the study, out of which 449 patients had complete preoperative arterial lactate data. The average age of the patients was 64 years, and 304 patients were male (67.6%). The crude early postoperative mortality rate was 24.5% (110 out of 449 patients). The mortality rate did not show any significant difference when comparing conservative and extensive surgeries. However, malperfusion had a significant impact on mortality [48/131 (36.6%) vs 62/318 (19.5%), p<0.001]. Preoperative arterial lactates were significantly elevated in patients with malperfusion. The optimal prognostic threshold of arterial lactate for predicting early postoperative mortality in our cohort was ≥ 2.6 mmol/L. Conclusion: The arterial lactate concentration in patients referred for TAAAD is an independent factor for both operative mortality and postoperative complications. In addition to mortality, patients with an upper arterial lactate cut-off of ≥2.6 mmol/L face significant risks of VA ECMO and the need for dialysis within the first 48 hours after surgery. To improve recognition and facilitate rapid transfer and surgical treatment protocol, more diligent efforts are required in the management of malperfusion in TAAAD.

This paper focuses on a joint model to analyse longitudinal proportion and survival data. After transforming the longitudinal proportional data by a logit function, we adopt a partially linear mixed-effect model for it, in which nonlinear function of time is fitted via using B-splines technique and a centered Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (CDPMM) is specified for a general distribution of random effects. The survival data is assumed to a Cox proportional hazard model, the sharing random effects joint model is developed for the two types of data. Combining the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, we propose a Bayesian Lasso (BLasso) method to simultaneously estimate unknown parameters and select important covariates. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the finite sample performance of the proposed methods. An example from the MA.5 research experiment is used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

In this paper study, we develop a Bayesian Network model selection principle that address addresses the incommensurability of network features obtained from incongruous datasets and overcomes performance irregularities of the Minimum Description Length model selection principle. This is achieved (i) by approaching model evaluation as a classification problem, (ii) by estimating the effect that sampling error has on the satisfiability of conditional independence criterion, as reflected by Mutual Information, and (iii) by utilizing this error estimate to penalize uncertainty in the Minimum Uncertainty (MU) model selection principle. We validate our findings numerically and demonstrate the performance advantages of the MU criterion. Finally, we illustrate the advantages of the new model evaluation framework on a tRNA structural biology example.

Classical methods for inverse problems are mainly based on regularization theory. In particular those which are based on optimization of a criterion with two parts: a data-model matching and a regularization term. Different choices for these two terms and great number of optimization algorithms have been proposed. When these two terms are distance or divergence measures, they can have a Bayesian Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) interpretation where these two terms correspond, respectively, to the likelihood and prior probability models.

The power function distribution is a flexible waiting time model that may provide better fit for some failure data. This paper presents the comparison of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates of two-parameter power function distribution. The Bayes estimates are obtained, using conjugate priors, under five loss functions consist of square error, precautionary, weighted, LINEX and DeGroot loss function. The Gibbs sampling algorithm is proposed to generate samples from posterior distributions and in result the Bayes estimates are computed. The comparison of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates are done through the root mean squared errors. One real-life data set is analyzed to illustrate the evaluation of proposed methods of estimation. Finally, results from the simulation are discussed to assess the performance behavior of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates.

We present a first formal analysis of specific and complete local integration. Complete local integration was previously proposed as a criterion for detecting entities or wholes in distributed dynamical systems. Such entities in turn were conceived to form the basis of a theory of emergence of agents within dynamical systems. Here, we give a more thorough account of the underlying formal measures. The main contribution is the disintegration theorem which reveals a special role of completely locally integrated patterns (what we call ι-entities) within the trajectories they occur in. Apart from proving this theorem we introduce the disintegration hierarchy and its refinement-free version as a way to structure the patterns in a trajectory. Furthermore we construct the least upper bound and provide a candidate for the greatest lower bound of specific local integration. Finally, we calculate the i-entities in small example systems as a first sanity check and find that ι-entities largely fulfil simple expectations.

In this paper, we focus on variational Bayesian learning deterministic optimization methods for inference in biparametric exponential models where the parameters follow semiparametric regression structures. This combination of data models and algorithms contributes to solving real-world problems and reduces the computation time. This allows both the rapid exploration of many data models and the accurate estimation of the mean and variance functions through the connection between generalized linear models and graph theory. A simulation study was carried out to assess the performance of the deterministic approximation. Finally, herein, we present an application using macroeconomic data to emphasize the benefits of the proposed approach.

The increasing prevalence of species that are detrimental to biodiversity is a major concern, particularly for managers of National Parks. To develop effective programs for controlling weeds, it is essential to have a thorough understanding of the extent and severity of infestations, as well as the contributing factors such as temperature, rainfall, and disturbance. Predicting these factors on a regional scale requires models that can incorporate a wide range of variables in a quantifiable manner, while also assisting with on-ground operations. In this study, we present two Bayesian Network models specifically designed for six significant weed species found along the southern coast of Australia. Our models are based on empirical data collected during a coastal weed survey conducted in 2015 and repeated in 2016. We applied these models to the coastal national parks in the isolated and pristine East Gippsland region. Importantly, the prediction models were developed at two different spatial scales that directly corresponded to the scale of the observations. Our findings indicate that coastal habitats, with their vulnerable environments and prevalence of open dune systems, are particularly susceptible to weed infestations. Moreover, adjacent regions also have the potential for colonization if these infestations are not effectively controlled. Climate-related factors play a role in moderating the potential for colonization, which is a significant concern for weed control efforts in the context of global climate change.

We propose a novel adaptive importance sampling scheme for Bayesian inversion problems where the inference of the variables of interest and the power of the data noise is split. More specifically, we consider a Bayesian analysis for the variables of interest (i.e., the parameters of the model to invert), whereas we employ a maximum likelihood approach for the estimation of the noise power. The whole technique is implemented by means of an iterative procedure, alternating sampling and optimization steps. Moreover, the noise power is also used as a tempered parameter for the posterior distribution of the the variables of interest. Therefore, a sequence of tempered posterior densities is generated, where the tempered parameter is automatically selected according to the actual estimation of the noise power. A complete Bayesian study over the model parameters and the scale parameter can be also performed. Numerical experiments show the benefits of the proposed approach.

This paper considers estimating the ratio of two distributions with different parameters and common supports. We consider a Bayesian approach based on the Log--Huber loss function which is resistant to outliers and useful to find robust M-estimators. We propose two different types of Bayesian density ratio estimators and compare their performance in terms of Bayesian risk function with themselves as well as the usual plug-in density ratio estimators. Some applications such as classification and divergence function estimation are addressed.

Technology development changes society and society demands new and innovative technology development. We analyze technology to understand society and technology itself. Many researches have been introduced in various fields. Most of them were about patent analysis. This is because detailed and accurate results of research and development are patented. In this paper, we study on new patent analysis method based on count data model and Bayesian regression analysis. Using count data model, we analyze the technological keywords extracted from the collected patent documents. We use the posterior distribution of Bayesian statistics to reflect the experience and knowledge of the relevant technological experts in the analysis model. Moreover, we apply the proposed model to finding sustainable technologies. Finding and developing sustainable technologies is an important activity for companies and research institutes to maintain their technological competitiveness. To illustrate how our modeling could be applied to real domain, we carry out a case study using the patent documents related to artificial intelligence.

This paper formulates the classic Monty Hall problem as a Bayesian game. Allowing Monty a small amount of freedom in his decisions facilitates a variety of solutions. The solution concept used is the Bayes Nash Equilibrium (BNE), and the set of BNE relies on Monty's motives and incentives. We endow Monty and the contestant with common prior probabilities (p) about the motives of Monty, and show that under certain conditions on p, the unique equilibrium is one where the contestant is indifferent between switching and not switching. This coincides and agrees with the typical responses and explanations by experimental subjects. Finally, we show that our formulation can explain the experimental results in Page (1998) [12]; that more people gradually choose switch as the number of doors in the problem increases.

Categorical variables are common in spatial data analysis. Traditional analytical methods for deriving probabilities of class occurrence, such as kriging-family algorithms, have been hindered by the discrete characteristics of categorical fields. This study introduces the theoretical backgrounds of linear Bayesian updating (LBU) approach for spatial classification through expert system. Transition probabilities are interpreted as expert opinions for updating the prior marginal probabilities of categorical response variables. The main objective of this paper is to present the solid theoretical foundations of LBU and provide a categorical random field prediction method which yields relatively higher classification accuracy compared with conventional Markov chain random field (MCRF) approach. A real-world case study has also been carried out to demonstrate the superiority of our method. Since the LBU idea is originated from aggregating expert opinions and not restricted to conditional independent assumption (CIA), it may prove to be reasonably adequate for analyzing complex geospatial data sets, like remote sensing images or area-class maps.

In this paper, under the symmetric entropy and the scale squared error loss functions, we consider the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and Bayesian estimation of the Shannon entropy and Rényi entropy of the two-parameter inverse Weibull distribution. In the ML estimation, the dichotomy is used to solve likelihood equation. In addition, the approximation confidence interval is given by the Delta method. Because the form of estimation results is more complex in the Bayesian estimation, the Lindley approximation method is used to achieve the numerical calculation. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations and a real data set are used to illustrate the results derived. By comparing the mean square error between the estimated value and the real value, it can be found that the performance of ML estimation of Shannon entropy is better than that of Bayesian estimation, and there is no significant difference between the performance of ML estimation of Rényi entropy and that of Bayesian estimation.

Bayesian nonlinear mixed effects models for data in the form of continuous, repeated measurements from a population, also known as Bayesian hierarchical nonlinear models, are a popular platform for analysis when interest focuses on individual specific characteristics and relevant uncertainty quantification. Due to the limitation of computational power, this framework was relatively dormant until the late 1980s, but in recent years, the statistical research community saw vigorous development of new methodological and computational techniques for these models, the emergence of software, and wide application of the models in numerous industrial and academic fields. This article presents an overview of the formulation, interpretation, and implementation of Bayesian nonlinear mixed effects models and surveys recent advances and applications.

This study examines the causal relationships between interest rates in the Korean financial market using a vector error correction model (VECM) and a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network, a novel approach in this context, identifies two distinct transmission channels: one led by call rates (reflecting monetary policy) and another by 10-year Treasury bond yields (reflecting fiscal policy). While the call rate channel aligns with traditional views, affecting bank lending rates, corporate bond spreads, and commercial paper rates, the 10-year Treasury yield channel highlights a separate fiscal policy transmission mechanism, influencing commercial paper rates indirectly through 30-year Treasury yields and directly impacting merchant bank lending rates. This finding suggests that fiscal intervention could potentially interfere with monetary policy, emphasizing the need for coordinated macroeconomic policy measures. The study also emphasizes the role of 10-year Treasury bonds as a benchmark in the Korean bond market, reflecting medium- to long-term economic outlooks and serving as the underlying asset for various derivatives.

Oral squamous cell carcinoma often arises from an oral potentially malignant disorder called oral leukoplakia (OL). With this work we aimed to develop a novel data-driven predictive model based on gene expression profiles to distinguish OL patients who underwent malignant transformation from those who did not. We used the Tree Augmented Naïve (TAN) Bayes classifier to predict the posterior probability of having oral cancer given the data. 86 patients were included with a median follow-up of 7.11 years. Fifty-one patients (51/86; 59%) underwent malignant transformation. We found that 16 genes were predictors of oral cancer in patients with OL and these included SLC7A11, SPINK6, SERPINA12, VIT, ATP1B3, CST6, FLRT2, ELMOD1, AZGP1, RNASE13, DIO2, ECM1, CYP4F11, SYTL4, AKR1C1, and AKR1C3. In conclusion, we showed that Bayesian gene networks are a data-driven approach which could be used also in other predictor models in oncology.

Lysine is the first limiting essential amino acid in rice because it is present in the lowest quantity compared to all the other amino acids. Amino acids are the building block of proteins and play an essential role in maintaining the human body’s healthy functioning. Rice is a staple food for large proportion of the global population, thus increasing the lysine content in rice will improve its nutritional value. In this paper, we studied the lysine biosynthesis pathway in rice (Oryza Sativa) to identify the regulators of the lysine reporter gene LYSA (LOC_Os02g24354). Genetically intervening at the regulators has the potential to increase the overall lysine content in rice. We modeled the lysine biosynthesis pathway in rice seedlings under normal and saline (NaCl) stress conditions using Bayesian networks. We estimated the model parameters using experimental data and identified the gene DAPF(LOC_Os12g37960) as a positive regulator of the lysine reporter gene LYSA under both normal and saline stress conditions. Based on this analysis, we conclude that the gene DAPF is a potent candidate for genetic intervention. Upregulating DAPF using methods such as CRISPR-Cas9 has the potential to upregulate the lysine reporter gene LYSA and increase the overall lysine content in rice.

The ability to smell is crucial for most species as it enables the detection of environmental threats like smoke, fosters social interactions, and contributes to the sensory evaluation of food and eating behavior. The high prevalence of smell disturbances throughout the life span calls for a continuous effort to improve tools for quick and reliable assessment of olfactory function. Odor-dispensing pens, called Sniffin' Sticks, are an established method to deliver olfactory stimuli during diagnostic evaluation. We tested the suitability of a Bayesian adaptive algorithm (QUEST) to estimate olfactory sensitivity using Sniffin' Sticks by comparing QUEST sensitivity thresholds with those obtained using a procedure based on an established standard staircase protocol. Thresholds were measured twice with both procedures in two sessions (Test and Retest). Overall, both procedures exhibited considerable overlap with QUEST displaying slightly higher test-retest correlations, less variability between measurements, and reduced testing duration. Notably, participants were more frequently presented with the highest concentration during the QUEST which may foster adaptation and habituation effects. We conclude that further research is required to better understand and optimize the procedure for assessment of olfactory performance.

The current study compared the goodness of fit and estimation precision of Bayes and maximum likelihood (ML) structural equation modeling across sample sizes. Data consisted of Markov Chain Monte Carlo generated samples of 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, 200, 250, 500, 750, 1000, and 1500 observations. The Bayes and ML methods were used to estimate a structural equation model with 40 parameters, including 12 continuous observed indicators, four latent variables, and three structural paths. Analyses were conducted with the Mplus 8.0 statistical software and were replicated 500 times with each of the 22 conditions (11 sample sizes x 2 estimation methods). Indices of model fit were the Bayes information criterion, the Tucker-Lewis index, the comparative fit index, the root mean square error of approximation, the posterior predictive p-value (for Bayes models), and the ꭓ2 test (for ML models). Results showed that as the sample size increased, both estimation methods exhibited improved model fit and enhanced estimation precision, and both methods performed well with samples of 200 or larger; however, ML demonstrated a marginally superior fit with smaller samples. These findings were not consistent with previous research and suggest that ML remains a better choice with continuous data and small samples.

The general objective of the study is to analyze food insecurity determinants mainly related to food price at macro level. The study used a time series data from the year 1988 quarter one to 2018 quarter four. Our empirical finding on the macroeconomic model show the short term consequence of food price change is positive with food security (negative with food insecurity). The long term consequence of food price change is, however, negative with food security (positive with food insecurity) at macro level. From the variance decomposition, it can be learned that the speed by which the undernourished people decrease in number in the short term because of the inflation happened is higher than the speed by which the number of undernourished people increase in the long run. At macro level, concern should be made to the supply side for food security improvement.

Background: All Payer Claims Databases (APCD) are a rich source of health information, however, race and ethnicity (R&E) data are largely missing. Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) is a common R&E imputation method, yet, validation of BISG in APCDs is lacking. We used the BISG to impute missing R&E in the Oregon APCD. Methods: BISG imputed R&E for Asian Pacific Islanders (API), Blacks, Hispanics and Whites were contrasted to the gold standard (vital statistics) and sensitivity and specificity improvements were assessed. Logistic regression examined whether missing R&E was random across patient characteristics. Results: Among 85,857 individuals in the study, 32.1% (n=27,594) had missing R&E. Missing R&E was not randomly distributed. There were higher odds of missingness among males, Whites, those age 65 and older, and commercially insured individuals. Differences in the percent missing were also found by co-morbid conditions and mortality causes. Imputing the missing R&E with BISG method improved the sensitivity to identify White, Black, API, and Hispanics. Conclusions: APCDs can benefit from enhancing missing R&E with BISG imputation to perform more robust population-health level analyses and identify inequities according to R&E without losing power or dropping non-random records with missing R&E data.

This paper presents a scenario evolution model for maritime accidents using Bayesian networks (BN) to predict the most likely causes of specific types of maritime incidents. The BN nodes encompass accident type, life loss contingency, accident severity, the quarter and time period of the accident, and the type and gross tonnage of the ships involved. We analyzed 5,660 global maritime accidents from 2005 to 2020. Using Netica software, we constructed a Tree Augmented Network (TAN) model, accounting for interdependencies among risk influencing factors. We validated the results through sensitivity analysis and historical accident records. Forward causal inference and reverse diagnostic inference were then performed on each node variable to investigate the accident development trend and evolution process under predetermined conditions. The findings indicate that the model can effectively predict the likelihood of various accident scenarios under specific conditions, as well as the extrapolation of accident consequences. Forward causal reasoning reveals that general cargo ships with a gross tonnage of 1-18,500 t are most likely to experience collision, grounding, and stranding accidents in the first quarter. Reverse diagnostic reasoning indicates that during early morning hours, container ships, general cargo ships, and chemical ships with a tonnage of 1-18,500 t are less likely to involve life loss in the event of collision accidents.

In many Bayesian computations, first, we obtain the expression of the joint distribution of all the unknown variables given the observed data. In general, this expression is not separable in those variables. Thus, obtaining their marginals for each variable and computing the expectations are difficult and costly. This problem becomes even more difficult in high dimensional quandaries, which is an important issue in inverse problems. We may then try to propose a surrogate expression with which we can do approximate computations. Often a separable expression approximation can be useful enough. The Variational Bayesian Approximation (VBA) is a technique that approximates the joint distribution $p$ with an easier, for example separable, one $q$ by minimizing Kullback–Leibler Divergence $KL(q|p)$. When $q$ is separable in all the variables, the approximation is also called Mean Field Approximation (MFA) and so $q$ is the product of the approximated marginals. A first standard and general algorithm is alternate optimization of $KL(q|p)$ with respect to $q_i$. A second general approach is its optimization in the Riemannian manifold. However, in this paper, for practical reasons, we consider the case where $p$ is in the exponential family and so is $q$. For this case, $KL(q|p)$ becomes a function of the parameters $\thetab$ of the exponential family. Then, we can use any other optimization algorithm to obtain those parameters. In this paper, we compare three optimization algorithms: standard alternate optimization, a gradient-based algorithm and a natural gradient algorithm and study their relative performances on three examples.

The adoption of Machine Learning (ML) for building emulators for complex physical processes has seen an exponential rise in the recent years. While neural networks are good function approximators, optimizing the hyper-parameters of the network to reach a global minimum is not trivial, and often needs human knowl- edge and expertise. In this light, automatic ML or autoML methods have gained large interest as they automate the process of network hyper-parameter tuning. In addition, Neural Architecture Search (NAS) has shown promising outcomes for improving model performance. While autoML methods have grown in popularity for image, text and other applications, their effectiveness for high-dimensional, complex scientific datasets remains to be investigated. In this work, a data driven emulator for turbulence closure terms in the context of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) models is trained using Artificial Neural Networks and an autoML frame- work based on Bayesian Optimization, incorporating priors to jointly optimize the hyper-parameters as well as conduct a full neural network architecture search to converge to a global minima, is proposed. Additionally, we compare the effect of using different network weight initializations and optimizers such as ADAM, SGDM and RMSProp, to explore the best performing setting. Weight and function space similarities during the optimization trajectory are investigated, and critical differences in the learning process evolution are noted and compared to theory. We observe ADAM optimizer and Glorot initialization consistently performs better, while RMSProp outperforms SGDM as the latter appears to have been stuck at a local minima. Therefore, this autoML BayesOpt framework provides a means to choose the best hyper-parameter settings for a given dataset.

Advances in remote sensing have led to use of satellite-derived rainfall products to complement the sparse rain gauge data. Although globally derived and some regional bias corrected, these products often show large discrepancies with ground measurements attributed to local and external factors that require systematic consideration. Decreasing rain gauge network however inhibits continuous validation of these products. We propose to deal with this problem by the use of Bayesian approach to merge the existing historical rain gauge information to create a consistent satellite rainfall data that can be used for climate studies. Monthly Bayesian bias correction is applied to the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS v2) data to reduce systematic errors using a corresponding gridded (0.05°) rain gauge data over East Africa for a period of 33 (1981–2013) years of which 22 years are utilized to derive error fields which are then applied to an independent CHIRPS data for 11 years for validation. The bias correction is spatially and temporally assessed during the rainfall wet months of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and October–December (OND) in East Africa. Results show significant reduction of systematic errors at both monthly and yearly scales and harmonization of their cumulative distributions. Monthly statistics showed a reduction of RMSD (29–56)% and MAE (28–60)% and an increase of correlations (2–32) %, while yearly ones showed reductions of RMSD (9-23)%, and MAE (7–27)% and increase of correlations (4–77)% for MAM months, reduction of RMSD (15–35)% and MAE (16–41)% and increase in correlations (5–16)% for JJA months, and reduction of RMSD (3–35)% and MAE (9–32)% and increase of correlations (3–65)% for OND months. Systematic errors of corrected data were influenced by local processes especially over Lake Victoria and high elevated areas. Large-scale circulations induced errors were mainly during JJA and OND rainfall seasons and were reduced by the separation of anomalous years during training. The proposed approach is recommended for generating long-term data for climate studies where consistencies of errors can be assumed.

In this paper we perform numerous numerical studies for the problem of low-rank matrix completion. We compare the Bayesian approaches and a recently introduced de-biased estimator which provides a useful way to build confidence intervals of interest. From a theoretical viewpoint, the de-biased estimator comes with a sharp minimax-optimal rate of estimation error whereas the Bayesian approach reaches this rate with an additional logarithmic factor. Our simulation studies show originally interesting results that the de-biased estimator is just as good as the Bayesian estimators. Moreover, Bayesian approaches are much more stable and can outperform the de-biased estimator in the case of small samples. However, we also find that the length of the confidence intervals revealed by the de-biased estimator for an entry is absolutely shorter than the length of the considered credible interval. These suggest further theoretical studies on the estimation error and the concentration for Bayesian methods as they are being quite limited up to present.

Establishing an accurate mathematical model is the foundation of simulating the motion of marine vehicles and structures, and it is the basis of modeling-based control design. System identification from observed input-output data is a practical and powerful method. However, for modeling objects with different characteristics and known information, a single modeling framework can hardly meet the requirements of model establishment. Moreover, there are some challenges in system identification, such as parameter drift and overfitting. In this work, three robust methods are proposed for generating ocean hydrodynamic models based on Bayesian regression. Two Bayesian techniques, semi-conjugate linear regression and noisy input Gaussian process regression, are used for parametric and nonparametric gray-box modeling and black-box modeling. The experimental free-running tests of the KVLCC2 ship model and a multi-freedom wave energy converter (WEC) are used to validate the proposed Bayesian models. The results demonstrate that the proposed schemes for system identification of the ship and WEC have good generalization ability and robustness. Finally, the developed modeling methods are evaluated considering the aspects required conditions, operating characteristics and prediction accuracy.

Sparse direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation of wideband signal has attracted widespread researches for its unique high-resolution performance. Numerous existing methods based on sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) don’t possess the ability to enhance sparsity even if they have already enjoyed high favor among sparse recovery approaches. In view of this, we propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian prior framework that enhance sparsity evidently and derive its corresponding iterative algorithm. On analysis, the computational complexity of the iterative are less than most existing other state-of-the-art algorithms. Not only that, proposed method possesses high angular estimation precision and sparsity performance by utilizing joint sparsity of multiple measure vector (MMV) models. Last but not least, the method obtains the ability to stabilize the estimated values between different frequencies or snapshots such that flat spatial spectrum. Extensive simulation results are presented to prove the superior performance of our methods

We find at least 4 quantum properties that are indeed universal in some number systems; and we can use them for quantum consciousness. Using the sets B={0,1}, N, Z, or Q has the +4 quantum properties that one can trust, as archetypes of easy communication to friends and foes, to ignoranti or cognoscenti, and for quantum computing. This paper proposes the use of Bayesian geometry to reduce the space of possible results, reducing or increasing initial beliefs by successive experimentation. This is exemplified in biology and mathematics, and can be applied to physics and other sciences. The conclusion is that an experimental fact can be absolutely verified. Any mathematical choice (as verified by computers) militating against R=Q, is under an absolutely low chance to succeed. Infinitesimals are denied based on 3^16 independent factors. This is not a probabilistic result, but based on reduction of the Bayes geometry for updating beliefs. This work applies to non-probabilistic and unknown phenomena, such as those found in oscillations (neutrino, health), evolution, and quantum computing, denies Gödel's uncertainty, and solves the liar's paradox by reflection. This connects different scientific fields with one another, in an internet, i.e., in a network of connections of multiple open networks, using the set Q, resembling a hologram, and includes entanglement.

The description of stellar interiors remains as a big challenge for the nuclear astrophysics community. The consolidated knowledge is restricted to density regions around the saturation of hadronic matter $\rho _{0} = 2.8\times 10^{14} {\rm\ g\ cm^{-3}}$, regimes where our nuclear models are successfully applied. As one moves towards higher densities and extreme conditions up to five to twenty times $\rho_{0}$, little can be said about the microphysics of such obejects. Here, we employ an MCMC strategy in order to access the variability of polytropic three-pircewised models for neutron star equation of states. With a fixed description of the hadronic matter we explore a variety of models for the high density regimes leading to stellar masses up to 2.5 $M_{\odot}$. In addition, we also discuss the use of a Bayesian power regression model with heteroscedastic error. The set of EoS from LIGO was used as inputs and treated as data set for testing case.

This pandemic of COVID-19 is tedious to control. The only lockdown is the way to stop the spread of this infection. Conventional health care is facing a real challenge to operate. Primarily the challenge is to provide health care support for COVID-19 patients with limited resources and continue the health care services like earlier.Perhaps, this challenge is the same but magnitude is different from different geographical locations around the globe. In this article, we presented a Bayesian algorithm with the Code to predict cancer death due to COVID-19. This code is possible to run at different time points and different geographical locations around the world. This code will help us to get the best strategy and shift the treatment option for cancer treatment. The model would provide physicians with an objective tool for counseling and decision making at different hotspots and small areas to implement.

This paper investigates an inverse problem of option pricing in the extended Black--Scholes model. We identify the model coefficients from the measured data and attempt to find arbitrage opportunities in financial markets using a Bayesian inference approach. The posterior probability density function of the parameters is computed from the measured data. The statistics of the unknown parameters are estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which explores the posterior state space. The efficient sampling strategy of MCMC enables us to solve inverse problems by the Bayesian inference technique. Our numerical results indicate that the Bayesian inference approach can simultaneously estimate the unknown drift and volatility coefficients from the measured data.

Evidence-based data for endometriosis management are limited. Experiments are excluded without adequate animal models. Data are limited to symptomatic women and occasional observations. Hormonal medical therapy cannot be blinded if recognised by the patient. Randomised controlled trials are not realistic for surgery since a variable disease with low numbers. Each diagnosis and treatment is an experiment with an outcome and experience is Bayesian updating from the past. If the experience of many is similar, this has more value than an opinion. The combined experience of a group of endometriosis surgeons was used to discuss problems in the management of endometriosis. Considering endometriosis as several genetically/epigenetically different diseases is important for medical therapy. Imaging cannot exclude endometriosis and diagnostic accuracy is limited for superficial lesions, deep lesions, and cystic corpora lutea. Surgery should not be avoided for emotional reasons. Shifting infertility treatment to IVF without considering fertility surgery is questionable. The concept of complete excision should be reconsidered. Surgeons should introduce quality control and teaching should move to explain why it is done. The perception of information has a personal bias. These are the major problems in the management of endometriosis identified by the combined experience of endometriosis surgeons.

Chronic non-cancer pain is a highly debilitating condition affecting approximately 20% of the global population. Chronic pain may lead to significant physical disability, emotional distress, social isolation and financial burden. Whilst^. pharmacological therapies remain the cornerstone of pain management in non-cancerous chronic pain, factors including the current opioid epidemic have led to non-pharmacological techniques becoming a more attractive proposition. We explored the prevalence of medical device use and their treatment efficacy in non-cancer pain management. A systematic methodology was developed, peer reviewed and published in PROSPERO (CRD42021235384). Key words of medical device, pain management devices, chronic pain, lower back pain, back pain, leg pain and chronic pelvic pain using Science direct, PubMed, Web of Science, PROSPERO, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PorQuest and ClinicalTrials.gov. All clinical trials, epidemiology and mixed methods studies that reported the use of medical devices for non-cancer chronic pain management published between the 1^st of January 1990 and the 30^th of April 2022 were included. 13 studies were included in systematic review, of these 6 were used in the meta-analysis with 173 participants. Our meta-analysis for pain reduction in each study showed that transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation combined with instrument-assisted soft tissue mobilization treatment and pulsed electromagnetic therapy produced significant treatment on chronic lower back pain patients. Pooled evidence revealed the use of medical device related interventions resulted in 0.7 degree of pain reduction under a 0-10 scale. Significant improvement in disability scores, with a 7.44 degree reduction in disability level compared to a placebo using a 50 score range was also seen. The application of medical devices in patients with chronic pain has gained popularity due to increasingly cost effective techniques, minimally invasiveness and greater awareness of risks associated with pharmacological management. Our analysis has shown that the optimal use of medical devices in a sustainable manner requires further extensive research, needing larger cohort studies with greater gender parity, in a more diverse range of geographical locations.

The fatigue life of concrete is affected by many interwoven factors whose effect is nonlinear. Be-cause of its unique self-learning ability and strong generalization capability, the Bayesian regu-larized backpropagation neural network (BR-BPNN) is proposed to predict concrete behavior in tensile fatigue. The optimal model was determined through various combinations of network parameters. The average relative impact value (ARIV) was constructed to evaluate the correla-tion between fatigue life and its influencing parameters (maximum stress level Smax, stress ratio R, static strength f, failure probability P). ARIV results were also compared with other factor as-sessment methods (weight equation and multiple linear regression analyses). Using BR-BPNN, S-N curves were then obtained for the combinations of R=0.1, 0.2, 0.5; f=5, 6, 7MPa; P=5%, 50%, 95%. The tensile fatigue results under different testing conditions were finally compared for compatibility. It was concluded that Smax has the most significant negative effect on fatigue life; the degree of influence of R, P, and f, which positively correlate with fatigue life, decreases suc-cessively. ARIV is confirmed as a feasible way to analyze the importance of parameters and could be recommended for future applications. The tensile fatigue performance of plain concrete under different stress states (flexural tension, axial tension, splitting tension) does not differ sig-nificantly. Besides utilizing the valuable fatigue test data scattered in the literature, insights gained from this work could provide a reference for subsequent fatigue test program design and fatigue evaluation.

Rapid post-earthquake damage diagnosis of bridges can guide decision-making for emergency response management and recovery. This can be facilitated using digital technologies to remove the barriers of manual post-event inspections. Prior mechanics-based Finite Element (FE) models can be used for post-event response simulation using the measured ground motions at nearby stations; however, the damage assessment outcomes would suffer from uncertainties in structural and soil material properties, input excitations, etc. For instrumented bridges, these uncertainties can be reduced by integrating sensory data with prior models through a model updating approach. This study presents a sequential Bayesian model updating technique, through which a linear/nonlinear FE model, including soil-structure interaction effects, and the foundation input motions are jointly identified from measured acceleration responses. The efficacy of the presented model updating technique is first examined through a numerical verification study. Then, seismic data recorded from the San Rogue Canyon Bridge in California are used for a real-world case study. Comparison between the free-field and the foundation input motions reveals valuable information regarding the soil-structure interaction effects at the bridge site. Moreover, the reasonable agreement between the recorded and estimated bridge responses shows the potentials of the presented model updating technique for real-world applications. The updated FE model is considered as the digital twin of the bridge and can be used to analyze the bridge and monitor the structural response at element, section, and fiber levels to diagnose the location and severity of any potential damage mechanism.

Construction projects are usually operating in a complex and dynamic environment in which the accumulation of many interrelated factors causes high uncertainty. Construction projects are complex and frequently involve substantial uncertainties including process complicatedness, intricate organization structure, dynamic environment, and financial strain. The study aims to categorize the influencing factors into three groups, namely construction project system, economic-market climate, and external environment. It attempts to adopt a novel analysis tool to examine the relationship between the project cost and multiple influencing factors by using Bayesian SEM. While the Bayesian SEM method has been receiving increasing attention in exploring the relationship between latent variables, construction studies still heavily rely on the covariance-based SEM approach. This study introduces several advantages of Bayesian SEM that make it more flexible and powerful than covariance-based SEM and provides the foundation of Bayesian SEM estimation and inference by illustrating this method in a project cost application.

Construction projects are usually operating in a complex and dynamic environment in which the accumulation of many interrelated factors causes high uncertainty. Construction projects are complex and frequently involve substantial uncertainties including process complicatedness, intricate organization structure, dynamic environment, and financial strain. The study aims to categorize the influencing factors into three groups, namely construction project system, economic-market climate, and external environment. It attempts to adopt a novel analysis tool to examine the relationship between the project cost and multiple influencing factors by using Bayesian SEM. While the Bayesian SEM method has been receiving increasing attention in exploring the relationship between latent variables, construction studies still heavily rely on the covariance-based SEM approach. This study introduces several advantages of Bayesian SEM that make it more flexible and powerful than covariance-based SEM and provides the foundation of Bayesian SEM estimation and inference by illustrating this method in a project cost application.

Bayesian analysis for masked data under competing risk frameworks is studied for the purpose of assessing the impact of covariates on the hazard functions when the failure time is exactly observed for some subjects but only known to lie in an interval of time for the remaining subjects. Such data, known as partly interval-censored data, usually result from periodic inspection. Dirichlet and Gamma processes are assumed as priors for masking probabilities and baseline hazards. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is employed for the implementation of the Bayesian approach. The effectiveness of the proposed model is tested through numerical studies, including simulated and real data sets.

Limited accessibility in some parts of Indonesia causes difficulties in logistic distribution, especially for emergency and medical supplies. Emerging drone cargo technology is a potential solution to improve logistic distribution in those areas. However, implementing drone cargo technology involves unknown risks, both in technical and non-technical aspects. Since data on drone operations in Indonesia is limited, a new method is explored to build a Bayesian Network (BN) model for risk analysis of drone crashes in Indonesia’s outermost and underdeveloped areas. The method optimizes the modelling process, in which significant risk factors are selected based on three drone operator companies’ experiences, which include wind speed, rain intensity, and system component failure or malfunction. Real wind speed and rain probability data are then implemented in the model. The operator’s data shows that wind speed contributes to drone crashes, which can be appropriately modelled in the BN model. The model produced a probability of safe operation of 94.1%, comparable to the annual operator’s data. The result shows that most operations are safe, with a minimum case of crashing and no case of harming human life.

Vibration signal analysis is regarded as a fundamental approach in diagnosing faults in rolling bearings, and recent advancements have shown notable progress in this domain. However, the presence of substantial background noise often results in the masking of these fault signals, posing a significant challenge for researchers. In response, an Adaptive Denoising Autoencoder (ADAE) approach is proposed in this paper. The data representations are learned by the encoder through convolutional layers, while the data reconstruction is performed by the decoder using deconvolutional layers. Both the encoder and decoder incorporate adaptive shrinkage units to simulate denoising functions, effectively removing interfering information while preserving sensitive fault features. Additionally, dropout regularization is applied to sparsify the network and prevent overfitting, thereby enhancing the overall expressive power of the model. To further enhance ADAE's noise resistance, shortcut connections are added. Evaluation using publicly available datasets under scenarios with known and unknown noise demonstrates that ADAE effectively enhances the signal-to-noise ratio in strongly noisy backgrounds, facilitating accurate diagnosis of faults in rolling bearings.

The challenge of missing data in scientific research prompts researchers to decide between imputing incomplete data or discarding observations, where discarding can lead to information loss. Various methods exist, from simple deletion to sophisticated approaches like Multiple Imputation (MI). However, these methods often fall short with high-dimensional datasets. Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) and Random Forest (RF) proximity imputation offer promising alternatives. Therefore, in this paper, we propose integrating MICE with Bayesian random forest (BRF) to enhance imputation accuracy and predictive power, particularly in high-dimensional analyses. Our approach combines MICE’s efficiency with BRF’s robustness, offering a comprehensive solution to missing data challenges. By way of example, we provide empirical evaluations to validate its effectiveness using synthetic data of various missing data scenarios. The results from the simulations showed that the combination of BRF and MICE offered a promising strategy for high-dimensional analysis in the presence of missing data.

The Ocean Color - Simultaneous Marine and Aerosol Retrieval Tool (OC-SMART) is a robust data processing platform that supports a large array of multi-spectral and hyper-spectral sensors. It provides accurate aerosol optical depths and remote sensing reflectances (Rrs estimates) that can be used to generate products such as absorption coefficients due to phytoplankton and detritus/Gelbstoff as well as backscattering coefficients due to particulate matter. The OC-SMART platform yields improved performance in complex environments by utilizing scientific machine learning (SciML) in conjunction with comprehensive radiative transfer computations. This paper expands the capability of OC-SMART by quantifying uncertainties in ocean color retrievals. Bayesian inversion is used to relate measured top of atmosphere radiances and a priori data to estimate posterior probability density functions and associated uncertainties. A framework of the methodology and implementation strategy is presented and uncertainty estimates for Rrs retrievals are provided to demonstrate the approach by applying it to MODIS, OLCI Sentinel-3, and VIIRS sensor data.

Quantile regression model is widely used in variable relationship research of general size data, due to strong robustness and more comprehensive description of the response variables' characteristics. With the increase of data size and data dimension, there have been some studies on high-dimensional quantile regression under the classical statistical framework, including higher-efficient frequency perspective, which is however at cost of randomness quantification, or lower-efficient Bayesian method based on MCMC sampling. To overcome these problems, we propose the high-dimensional quantile regression with Spike-and-Slab Lasso penalty based on variational Bayesian (VBSSLQR), which can not only improve the computational efficiency but also measure the randomness via variational distributions. The simulation studies and real data analysis illustrate that the proposed VBSSLQR method is superior to or equivalent to other quantile and non-quantile regression methods (including Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods), and its efficiency is higher than any other method.

Stage of cancer is a discrete ordinal response that indicates aggressiveness of disease and is often used by physicians to determine the type and intensity of treatment to be administered. For example, the FIGO stage in cervical cancer is based on the size and depth of the tumor as well as the level of spread. It may be of clinical relevance to identify molecular features from high-throughput genomic assays that are associated with stage of cervical cancer, to elucidate pathways related to tumor aggressiveness, identify improved molecular features that may be useful for staging, and identify therapeutic targets. High-throughput RNA-Seq data and corresponding clinical data (including stage) for cervical cancer patients has been made available through The Cancer Genome Atlas Project (TCGA). We recently described penalized Bayesian ordinal response models that can be used for variable selection for over-parameterized datasets such as the TCGA-CESC dataset. Herein, we describe our ordinalbayes R package, available from the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN), which is capable of fitting cumulative logit models when the outcome is ordinal and the number of predictors exceeds the sample size, P>N, such as for TCGA data. We demonstrate use of this package through application to TCGA cervical cancer dataset. Our ordinalbayes package can be used to fit models to high-dimensional dataset and effectively performs variable selection.

The entropy models have been recently adopted in many studies to evaluate the distribution of the shear stress in circular channels. However, the uncertainty in their predictions and their reliability remains an open question. We present a novel method to evaluate the uncertainty of four popular entropy models, including Shannon, Shannon-Power Low (PL), Tsallis, and Renyi, in shear stress estimation in circular channels. The Bayesian Monte-Carlo (BMC) uncertainty method is simplified considering a 95% Confidence Bound (CB). We developed a new statistic index called as FREE_opt-based OCB (FOCB) using the statistical indices Forecasting Range of Error Estimation (FREE) and the percentage of observed data in the CB (N_in), which integrates their combined effect. The Shannon and Shannon PL entropies had close values of the FOCB equal to 8.781 and 9.808, respectively, had the highest certainty in the calculation of shear stress values in circular channels followed by traditional uniform flow shear stress and Tsallis models with close values of 14.491 and 14.895, respectively. However, Renyi entropy with much higher values of FOCB equal to 57.726 has less certainty in the estimation of shear stress than other models. Using the presented results in this study, the amount of confidence in entropy methods in the calculation of shear stress to design and implement different types of open channels and their stability is determined.

In this study, based on our previous study, we examined the mathematical properties, especially the stability of the equilibrium for our proposed mathematical model. By means of the results of the stability in this study, we also used actual data representing transient booms and resurgent booms, and conducted parameter estimation for our proposed model using Bayesian inference. In addition, we conducted a model fitting to five actual data. By this study, we reconfirmed that we can express the resurgences or minute vibrations of actual data by means of our proposed model.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental condition characterized by impaired social communication and repetitive or stereotypic behaviours. In utero exposure to environmental chemicals, such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), may play a role in the etiology of ASD. We examined the relation between plasma PCB concentrations measured during pregnancy and autistic behaviours in a subset of children aged 3–4 years old in the Maternal-Infant Research on Environmental Chemicals (MIREC) Study, a pregnancy and birth cohort of 546 mother-infant pairs from Canada (enrolled: 2008-2011). We quantified the concentrations of 6 PCB congeners that were detected in >40% of plasma samples collected during the 1st trimester. At age 3–4 years, caregivers completed the Social Responsiveness Scale-2 (SRS), a valid and reliable measure of children’s reciprocal social and repetitive behaviors and restricted interests. We examined SRS scores as both a continuous and binary outcome, and we calculated Bayesian predictive odds ratios for more autistic behaviours based on a latent variable model for SRS scores >60. We found no association between plasma PCB concentrations and autistic behavior, However, we found small and imprecise increases in the mean SRS score and odds of more autistic behaviour for the highest quartile of plasma PCB concentrations compared with the lowest quartile; for instance, an average increase of 1.1 [95%PCI: −0.5, 2.6] in the mean SRS (exposure contrast 4^th versus 1^st quartile) for PCB138 translated to an odds ratio of 1.6 [95%PCI: 1.0, 2.5]. Our findings illustrate the importance of measuring associations between PCBs and autistic behaviour on both continuous and binary scales.

This study explores the relationship between job satisfaction, employee loyalty and two types of flexible employment arrangements; teleworking and flexi-time. The analysis relies on data derived by the Workplace Employee Relations Survey (WERS) in 2004 and 2011. A propensity score matching and least squares regressions are applied. Furthermore, Bayesian Networks (BN) and Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) are employed in order to confirm the causality between employment types explored and the outcomes of interest. Finally, an instrumental variables (IV) approach based on the BN framework is proposed and applied in this study. The results support that there is a positive causal effect from these employment arrangements on job satisfaction and employee loyalty.

Cartels cause tremendous damage to the market economy and disadvantage consumers by causing higher prices and lower quality; moreover, they are difficult to detect. We need to prevent them by scientific analysis, which includes the determination of an indicator to explain antitrust enforcement. Particularly, the probability of cartel penalization is a useful indicator for the evaluation of the competition enforcement. This study is to estimate the probability of cartel penalization by using a Bayesian approach. In the empirical study, the probability of cartel penalization is estimated by Bayesian approach from cartel data of Department of Justice in United States from 1970 to 2009. The probability of cartel penalization is seen to be sensitive to change of competition law and the results shows the usefulness of higher interpretation than other research. The result of the policy simulation shows how effective the leniency program is. From this estimation, antitrust enforcement is evaluated, and thereby, can be improved.

Breaching and liquefaction are two types of coastal flow slides proposed in the literature. While their final results are similar, liquefaction and breaching failure are two different processes, with breaching failure characterized by a different progression and sand movement mechanisms. In densely packed sand, breaching causes delayed sand grain discharge and negative excess pore pressures. Liquefaction, when a mass of soil suddenly behaves like a liquid, flow out over overly gentle slopes. Flow slides typically go unnoticed until the slope fails above ground because they start below the water. Without modern technology, diving equipment, risk assessment, and probabilistic and sensitivity assessments, flow slides inherently challenging. The authors developed a new sensitivity index to detect the susceptibility of coastal flow slides. It was established a sophisticated hybrid model that accommodates flow slides in sync with unpredictable variables employed in this new sensitivity index. Innovative hybrid model has three distinctive models. The Hybrid Hydrodynamic Model addresses wave, wind, current, climate change, and sediment transfer. The Monte Carlo Simulation analyses sensitivity, and the Bayesian Network calculates joint probability of coastal flow slide parameters of this new index that includes environmental characteristics, including climate change. With the assistance of these three models, researchers aim at a) presenting a methodology for coupling coastal flow slide projections with outcomes; b) distinguishing two flow slides; c) examining variables influencing flow slides. The use of such a hybrid model and risk index offers a robust and computationally efficient approach to evaluating the critical angle slope for breaching failure.

This study investigates the application of regression neural networks, in particular the fitrnet model, in predicting the hardness of steels. The experiments involve extensive tuning of hyperparameters using Bayesian optimization and employ 5-fold and 10-fold cross-validation schemes. The trained models are rigorously evaluated, and their performances are compared using various metrics such as mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R2). The results provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of the models and their ability to generalize to unseen data. In particular, Model 4208 (8-85-141-1) emerges as the top performer with an impressive RMSE of 1.0790 and an R² of 0.9900. The research paper contains an illustrative example that demonstrates the practical application of the developed model in determining the hardenability band for a specific steel grade and shows the effectiveness of the model in predicting and optimizing heat treatment results.

Random Forest (RF) is a widely used data prediction and variable selection technique. However, the variable selection aspect of RF can become unreliable when there are more irrelevant variables than relevant ones. In response, we introduced the Bayesian Random Forest (BRF) method specifically designed for high-dimensional datasets with a sparse covariate structure. Our research demonstrates that BRF possesses the oracle property, which means it achieves strong selection consistency without compromising efficiency or bias.

The giant challenge breeding flood-irrigated rice is to identify superior genotypes that present high-yielding with specific grain qualities, resistance to abiotic and biotic stresses, excellent adaptation to the target environment. Thus, the objectives of this study were to propose a bayesian multi-trait model, estimate genetic parameters, and select flood-irrigated rice genotypes with better genetic potentials in different evaluation environments. For this, twenty-five rice genotypes belonging to the flood-irrigated rice improvement program were evaluated. The grain yields, grain length, width and thickness, grain length, and grain width and weight of 100 grains in the agricultural year 2016/2017. The experimental design used in all experiments was a randomized block design with three replications. The Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm estimated genetic parameters and genetic values. The grain thickness trait was considered highly heritable, with a credibility interval ranging from: h^2: 0.9480; 0.9440; 0.8610, in environments 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The grain yields showed a low correlation estimate between grain thickness and 100-grain weight, in all environments, with a credibility interval ranging from (ρ= 0.5477; 0.5762; 0.5618 and 0.5973; 0.5247; 0.5632, grain thickness and 100-grain weight, in environments 1, 2, and 3, respectively). The Bayesian multi-trait model proved to be an adequate strategy for the genetic improvement of flood-irrigated. Genotypes 2 and 15 had similar potential in the three environments, they should be selected as high-performance multi-trait genotypes for the genetic breeding of flood-irrigated rice in the program.

The production of lithium-ion battery cells is characterized by a high degree of complexit due to numerous cause-effect relationships between process characteristics. Knowledge about the multi-stage production is spread among several experts, rendering tasks such as failure analysis challenging. In this paper, a method is presented, which includes expert knowledge acquisition in production ramp-up by combining Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) with a Bayesian Network. We show the effectiveness of this holistic method by building up a large scale, cross-process Bayesian Failure Network in lithium-ion battery production. Using this model, we are able to conduct root cause analyses as well as analyses of failure propagation. The former support operators in identifying root causes once a cell possesses a specific failure by calculating most-probable explanations matched to the individual battery cell data. The latter enable us to analyze propagation of failures and deviations in the production chain and thus provide support for placement of quality gates, leading to a significant reduction in scrap rate. Moreover, it gives an insight into which process steps are key drivers for which final product characteristics.

Especially for drought periods, the higher the accuracy of reservoir inflow forecasting, the more reliable the water supply from a dam. The article focuses on probabilistic forecasting of seasonal inflow to reservoirs and determines estimates from the probabilistic seasonal inflow according to drought forecast results. The probabilistic seasonal inflow was forecasted by a copula-based Bayesian network employing a Gaussian copula function. Drought forecasting was performed by calculation of the standardized streamflow index value. The calendar year is divided into four seasons; the total inflow volume of water to a reservoir for a season is referred to as the seasonal inflow. Seasonal inflow forecasting curves conforming to drought stages produce estimates of probabilistic seasonal inflow according to the drought forecast results. The forecasted estimates of seasonal inflow were calculated by using the inflow records of Soyanggang and Andong dams in the Republic of Korea. Under the threshold probability of drought occurrence ranging from 50 to 55 %, the forecasted seasonal inflows reasonably matched critical drought records. Combining the drought forecasting with the seasonal inflow forecasting may produce reasonable estimates of drought inflow from the probabilistic forecasting of seasonal inflow to a reservoir.

The comprehensibility of good predictive models learned from high-dimensional gene expression data is attractive because it can lead to biomarker discovery. Several good classifiers provide comparable predictive performance but differ in their abilities to summarize the observed data. We extend a Bayesian Rule Learning (BRL-GSS) algorithm, previously shown to be a significantly better predictor than other classical approaches in this domain. It searches a space of Bayesian networks using a decision tree representation of its parameters with global constraints, and infers a set of IF-THEN rules. The number of parameters and therefore the number of rules are combinatorial to the number of predictor variables in the model. We relax these global constraints to a more generalizable local structure (BRL-LSS). BRL-LSS entails more parsimonious set of rules because it does not have to generate all combinatorial rules. The search space of local structures is much richer than the space of global structures. We design the BRL-LSS with the same worst-case time-complexity as BRL-GSS while exploring a richer and more complex model space. We measure predictive performance using Area Under the ROC curve (AUC) and Accuracy. We measure model parsimony performance by noting the average number of rules and variables needed to describe the observed data. We evaluate the predictive and parsimony performance of BRL-GSS, BRL-LSS and the state-of-the-art C4.5 decision tree algorithm, across 10-fold cross-validation using ten microarray gene-expression diagnostic datasets. In these experiments, we observe that BRL-LSS is similar to BRL-GSS in terms of predictive performance, while generating a much more parsimonious set of rules to explain the same observed data. BRL-LSS also needs fewer variables than C4.5 to explain the data with similar predictive performance. We also conduct a feasibility study to demonstrate the general applicability of our BRL methods on the newer RNA sequencing gene-expression data.

: Mistrust, amplified by numerous artificial intelligence (AI) related incidents, has caused the energy and industrial sectors to be amongst the slowest adopter of AI methods. Central to this issue is the black-box problem of AI, which impedes investments and fast becoming a legal hazard for users. Explainable AI (XAI) is a recent paradigm to tackle this challenge. Being the backbone of the industry, the prognostic and health management (PHM) domain has recently been introduced to XAI. However, many deficiencies, particularly lack of explanation assessment methods and uncertainty quantification, plague this young field. In this paper, we elaborate a framework on explainable anomaly detection and failure prognostic employing a Bayesian deep learning model to generate local and global explanations from the PHM tasks. An uncertainty measure of the Bayesian model is utilized as marker for anomalies expanding the prognostic explanation scope to include model’s confidence. Also, the global explanation is used to improve prognostic performance, an aspect neglected from the handful of PHM-XAI publications. The quality of the explanation is finally examined employing local accuracy and consistency properties. The method is tested on real-world gas turbine anomalies and synthetic turbofan data failure prediction. Seven out of eight of the tested anomalies were successfully identified. Additionally, the prognostic outcome showed 19% improvement in statistical terms and achieved the highest prognostic score amongst best published results on the topic.

The most frequent, noticeable, and frequent natural calamity in the karakoram region is landslides. Extreme landslides have occurred frequently along Karakoram highway, particularly during the monsoon, causing a major loss of life and property. Therefore, it was necessary to look for a solution to increase growth and vigilance in order to lessen losses related to landslides caused by natural disasters. By utilizing contemporary technologies, an early warning system might be developed. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are widely used nowadays across many industries. This paper's major goal is to provide new integrative models for assessing landslide susceptibility in a prone area of north of Pakistan. To do this, the training of an artificial neural network (ANN) is supervised using metaheuristic and Bayesian techniques: particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), Genetic algorithm (GA), Bayesian optimization Gaussian process (BO_GP), and Bayesian optimization Gaussian process (BO_TPE). 304 previous landslides and the eight most prevalent conditioning elements combine to form a geographical database. The models are hyper-parameter optimized, and the best ones are employed to generate the susceptibility maps. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUROC) accuracy index found demonstrated that the maps produced by both Bayesian and metaheuristic algorithms are highly accurate. The effectiveness and efficiency of applying artificial neural networks (ANNs) for landslide mapping, susceptibility analysis, and forecasting are studied in this research it’s observed from experimentation that the performance differences for GA, BO_GP, and PSO compared to BO_TPE are relatively small, ranging from 0.3166% to 1.8399%. This suggests that these techniques achieved comparable performance to BO_TPE in terms of AUC. However, it's important to note that the significance of these differences can vary depending on the specific context and requirements of the ML task. Additionally in this study, we explore eight feature selection algorithms to determine the geospatial variable importance for landslide susceptibility mapping along the KKH. The algorithms considered include Information Gain, Gain Ratio, OneR Classifier, Subset Evaluators, Principal Components, Relief Attribute Evaluator, Correlation, and Symmetrical Uncertainty. These algorithms enable us to evaluate the relevance and significance of different geospatial variables in predicting landslide susceptibility. By applying these feature selection algorithms, we aim to identify the most influential geospatial variables that contribute to landslide occurrences along the KKH. The algorithms encompass a diverse range of techniques, such as measuring entropy reduction, accounting for attribute bias, generating single rules, evaluating feature subsets, reducing dimensionality, and assessing correlation and information sharing. The findings of this study will provide valuable insights into the critical geospatial variables associated with landslide susceptibility along the KKH. These insights can aid in the development of effective landslide mitigation strategies, infrastructure planning, and targeted hazard management efforts. Additionally, the study contributes to the field of geospatial analysis by showcasing the applicability and effectiveness of various feature selection algorithms in the context of landslide susceptibility mapping.

The enormous increase in the volume of Earth Observations (EOs) has provided the scientific community with unprecedented temporal, spatial, and spectral information. However, this increase in the volume of EOs has not yet resulted in proportional progress with our ability to forecast agricultural systems.This study examines the applicability of EOs obtained from Sentinel2 and Landsat8 for constraining the APSIM-Maize model parameters. We leveraged leaf area index (LAI) retrieved from Sentinel2 and Landsat8 NDVI to constrain a series of APSIM-Maize model parameters in three different Bayesian multi-criteria optimization frameworks across 13 different sites across the U.S Midwest. A time variant sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the most influential parameters driving the LAI estimates in APSIM-Maize model. Then surrogate models were develop using random samples taken from the parameter space using Latin hypercube sampling to emulate APSIM’s behavior in simulating NDVI and LAI at all sites. Site-level, global and hierarchical Bayesian optimization models were then developed using the site-level emulators to simultaneously constrain all parameters and estimate the site to site variability in crop parameters. For within sample predictions, site-level optimization showed the largest predictive uncertainty around LAI and crop yield, whereas the global optimization showed the most constraint predictions for these variables. Lowest RMSE for within sample yield prediction was found for hierarchical optimization scheme (1423 Kg ha−1) while the largest RMSE was found for site-level (1494 Kg ha−1). In out-of-sample predictions within the spatio-temporal extent of the training sites, global optimization showed lower RMSE (1627 Kg ha−1) compared to the hierarchical approach (1822 Kg ha−1) across 90 independent sites in the U.S Midwest. On comparison between these two optimization schemes across another 242 independent sites outside the spatio-temporal extent of the training sites, global optimization also showed substantially lower RMSE (1554 Kg ha−1) as compared to the hierarchical approach (2532 Kg ha−1). Overall, EOs demonstrated their real use case for constraining process-based crop models and showed comparable results to model calibration exercises using only field measurements.

The present reality about the Nigerian economy calls for investment and development in the non-oil sector. This becomes necessary as a result of fall in the oil price in the global market. This paper examined the Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) modeling and forecasting of the dynamic interrelationship between Economic growth and revenue from the oil and non-oil sectors in Nigeria. To achieve this, annual data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), revenue from oil and non-oil sectors were collected from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) bulletin, the sample from 1981 to 2008 was used for analysis, while sample from 2009 to 2014 was used for model validation. Six (6) versions of Sims-Zha BVAR models were compared for out-of-sample forecast, the result revealed the superiority of the BVAR6 model over the other BVAR models. Lastly, evidence from the decomposition forecast errors revealed that revenue of oil sector contributed 7.69% to GDP while revenue from non-oil sector contributed 0.12% to GDP in Nigeria. This paper therefore recommended that the present government should encourage investment that is geared toward development in the non-oil sector, of which it has the capacity to improve the Economic growth of the Nigerian economy.

This study explores the use of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) for estimating chlorophyll-a concentration ([CHL-a]) from remotely sensed data. The BNN model enables uncertainty quantification, offering additional layers of information compared to traditional ocean colour models. An extensive in situ bio-optical dataset is utilized, generated by merging 27 data sources across the world’s oceans. The BNN model demonstrates remarkable capability in capturing mesoscale features and ocean circulation patterns, providing comprehensive insights into spatial and temporal variations in [CHL-a] across diverse marine ecosystems. In comparison to established ocean colour algorithms, such as Ocean Colour 4 (OC4), the BNN shows comparable performance in terms of correlation coefficients, errors, and biases when compared with the in situ data. The BNN, however, further provides critical information about the distribution of [CHL-a], which can be used to assess uncertainties in the prediction. Moreover, the BNN model’s ability to provide more information for coastal waters, especially with higher spatial resolution imagery, offers valuable advantages for marine research and management. By quantifying uncertainty, the model builds confidence in [CHL-a] predictions, even in regions with limited data coverage. This is reflected by the spread in the model predictions, where the BNN can detect a range of uncertainty bounds that reflect confidence in the retrievals. Introducing BNNs as probabilistic ocean colour models represents a significant advancement, enabling more accurate and reliable predictions of [CHL-a] in the global oceans.

Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) is increasingly used in predicting and mapping spatio-temporal data. However, studies that have fully evaluated its robustness empirically are rare. Therefore, this research examined empirically the effect of skewness, sample size and spatial dependency level using simulated data. We considered symmetric data, data positively skewed by 1, 3, 6 and 9, data with weak, moderate, and strong spatial dependency levels, and sample sizes from 100 to 500 at the interval length of 50. The results showed that the variation of sample sizes and spatial dependency levels do not affect the Mean Square Error (MSE) and bias of BME prediction. However, skewness affects the MSE of prediction but does not affect the bias. This result indicates that BME is robust to sample size and is unbiased. Despite the significant difference due to skewness, a graphical plot showed values of MSE close to zero, suggesting that BME can be considered robust to skewness.

The aim of the paper is to identify the most likely factors that determine the demand for Renewa-ble Energy Consumption (R.E.C.) in European countries. Although in Europe a high environmen-tal awareness is omnipresent, countries differ in scope and share of R.E.C. due to historical ener-getic policies and dependencies, investments into renewable and traditional energetic sectors, R&D development, structural changes required by energetic policy change, and many other fac-tors. The study refers to a set of macroeconomic, institutional, and social factors affecting energetic renewable policy and R.E.C. in selected European countries in two points of time: i.e., before and after the Paris Agreement. The Bayesian Average Classical Estimates (BACE) is applied to indicate the most likely factors affecting R.E.C. in 2015 and 2018. The comparison of the results reveals that the G.D.P. level, nuclear and hydro energy consumption were the determinants significant in both analyzed years. Furthermore, it became clear that in 2015 the R.E.C. depended strongly on the energy consumption structure, while in 2018, the foreign direct investment and trade openness played their role in increasing renewable energy consumption. The direction of changes is positive and complies with sustainable development goals (S.D.G.s).

Often, when solving forward, inverse or data assimilation problems, only a part of the solution is needed. As a model, we consider the stationary diffusion problem. We demonstrate an algorithm that can compute only a part or a functional of the solution, without calculating the full inversion operator and the complete solution. It is a well-known fact about partial differential equations that the solution at each discretisation point depends on the solutions at all other discretisation points. Therefore, it is impossible to compute the solution only at one point, without calculating the solution at all other points. The standard numerical methods like a conjugate gradient or Gauss elimination compute the whole solution and/or the complete inverse operator. We suggest a method which can compute the solution of the given partial differential equation 1) at a point; 2) at few points; 3) on an interface; or a functional of the solution, without computing the solution at all points. The required storage cost and computational resources will be lower as in the standard approach. With this new method, we can speed up, for instance, computation of the innovation in filtering or the likelihood distribution, which measures the data misfit (mismatch). Further, we can speed up the solution of the regression, Bayesian inversion, data assimilation, and Kalman filter update problems. Applying additionally the hierarchical matrix approximation, we reduce the cubic computational cost to almost linear $\mathcal{O}(k^2n \log^2 n)$, where $k\ll n$ and $n$ is the number of degrees of freedom. Up to the hierarchical matrix approximation error, the computed solution is exact. One of the disadvantages of this method is the need to modify the existing deterministic solver.

This paper develops Bayesian inference in reliability of a class of scale mixtures of log-normal failure time (SMLNFT) models with stochastic (or uncertain) constraint in their reliability measures. The class is comprehensive and includes existing failure time (FT) models (such as log-normal, log-Cauchy, and log-logistic FT models) as well as new models that are robust in terms of heavy-tailed FT observations. Since classical frequency approaches to reliability analysis based on the SMLNFT model with stochastic constraint are intractable, the Bayesian method is pursued utilizing a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling based approach. This paper introduces a two-stage maximum entropy (MaxEnt) prior, which elicits a priori uncertain constraint and develops Bayesian hierarchical SMLNFT model by using the prior. The paper also proposes an MCMC method for Bayesian inference in the SMLNFT model reliability and calls attention to properties of the MaxEnt prior that are useful for method development. Finally, two data sets are used to illustrate how the proposed methodology works.

COVID-19 transmission models have conferred great value in informing public health understanding, planning, and response. However, the pandemic also demonstrated the infeasibility of basing public health decision-making on transmission models with pre-set assumptions. No matter how favourably evidenced when built, a model with fixed assumptions is challenged by numerous factors that are difficult to predict. Ongoing planning associated with rolling back and re-instituting measures, initiating surge planning, and issuing public health advisories can benefit from approaches that allow state estimates for transmission models to be continuously updated in light of unfolding time series. A model being continuously regrounded by empirical data in this way can provide a consistent, integrated depiction of the evolving underlying epidemiology and acute care demand, offer the ability to project forward such a depiction in a fashion suitable for triggering the deployment of acute care surge capacity or public health measures, support quantative evaluation of tradeoffs associated with prospective interventions in light of the latest estimates of the underlying epidemiology. We describe here the design, implementation and multi-year daily use for public health and clinical support decision-making of a particle filtered COVID-19 compartmental model, which served Canadian federal and provincial governments via regular reporting starting in June 2020. The use of the Bayesian Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm of Particle Filtering allows the model to be re-grounded daily and adapt to new trends within daily incoming data – including test volumes and positivity rates, endogenous and travel-related cases, hospital census and admissions flows, daily counts dose-specific vaccinations administered, measured concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater, and mortality. Important model outputs include estimates (via sampling) of the count of undiagnosed infectives, the count of individuals at different stages of the natural history of frankly and pauci-symptomatic infection, the current force of infection, effective reproductive number, and current and cumulative infection prevalence. Following a brief description of model design, we describe how the machine learning algorithm of particle filtering is used to continually reground estimates of dynamic model state, support probabilistic model projection of epidemiology and health system capacity utilization and service demand and probabilistically evaluate trade-offs between potential intervention scenarios. We further note aspects of model use in practice as an effective reporting tool in a manner that is parameterized by jurisdiction, including support of a scripting pipeline that permits a fully automated reporting pipeline other than security-restricted new data retrieval, including automated model deployment, data validity checks, and automatic post-scenario scripting and reporting. As demonstrated by this multi-year deployment of Bayesian machine learning algorithm of particle filtering to provide industrial-strength reporting to inform public health decision making across Canada, such methods offer strong support for evidence-based public health decision making informed by ever-current articulated transmission models whose probabilistic state and parameter estimates are continually regrounded by diverse data streams.

Aiming at the prediction of environmental vibrations induced by elevated high-speed railway, a machine-learning method is developed by combining random forest algorithm and Bayesian optimization, which using the dataset from on-site experiments . When it comes to achieving a rapid and effective prediction of environmental vibration, there is few research on com-parisons and verifications of different algorithms, and neither on parameter tuning and optimi-zation of machine learning algorithms. In this paper, a field experiment is firstly carried out to measure the ground vibrations caused by high-speed trains running on bridge, and then the en-vironmental vibration characteristics are analyzed in view of ground accelerations and weighted vibration levels. Subsequently, three machine-learning algorithms of linear regression, support vector machine and random forest are developed by using experimental database, and their prediction performance are discussed. Finally, two optimization models for the hyperparameter set of random forest algorithm are further compared. It turns out that the integrated random forest algorithm has higher accuracy in predicting environmental vibration than linear regression and support vector machine; the Bayesian optimization has excellent performance and high efficiency in achieving efficient and in-depth optimization of parameters, and can be combined with the RF machine learning algorithm to effectively predict the environmental vibrations induced by the high-speed railway.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) approaches that could learn from large data sources have been identified as useful tools to support clinicians in their decisional process; AI and ML implementations have had a rapid acceleration during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. However, many ML classifiers are “black box” to the final user, since their underlying reasoning process is often obscure. Additionally, the performance of such models suffer from poor generalization ability in presence of dataset shift. Here, we present a comparison between an explainable-by-design (“white box”) model (Bayesian Network (BN)) versus a black-box model (Random Forest), both studied with the aim to support clinicians of Policlinico San Matteo University Hospital in Pavia (Italy) during the triage of COVID-19 patients. Our aim is to evaluate whether the BN predictive performances are comparable with those of a widely used but less explainable ML model such as Random Forest and to test the generalization ability of the ML models across different waves of the pandemic.

Algorithms for machine learning have found extensive use in numerous fields and applications. One important aspect of effectively utilizing these algorithms is tuning the hyperparameters to match the specific task at hand. The selection and configuration of hyperparameters directly impact the performance of machine learning models. Achieving optimal hyperparameter settings often requires a deep understanding of the underlying models and the appropriate optimization techniques. While there are many automatic optimization techniques available, each with its own advantages and disadvantages, this article focuses on hyperparameter optimization for well-known machine learning models. It explores cutting-edge optimization methods and provides guidance on applying them to different machine learning algorithms. The article also presents real-world applications of hyperparameter optimization by conducting tests on spatial data collections for landslide susceptibility mapping. Based on the experiment's results, both Bayesian optimization and metaheuristic algorithms showed promising performance compared to baseline algorithms. For example, the metaheuristic algorithm improved the overall accuracy of the random forest model. Additionally, Bayesian algorithms, such as Gaussian processes, performed well for models like KNN and SVM. The paper thoroughly discusses the reasons behind the efficiency of these algorithms. By successfully identifying appropriate hyperparameter configurations, this research paper aims to assist researchers, spatial data analysts, and industrial users in developing machine learning models more effectively. The findings and insights provided in this paper can contribute to enhancing the performance and applicability of machine learning algorithms in various domains.

When separation to the parameters of interest appears below resolution limit of the estimator, the ambiguity arises whether two parameter estimates relate to one source emitted twice or two close sources emitted once. In the paper, novel Bayes technique aimed to identify one/two sources below resolution limit by the pair of Gaussian estimates of a source(s) planar location as parameter is developed. Prior probabilities of the hypotheses on one/two sources are available from the analysis of physical characteristics of the emissions, assuming that they can be equally probable. The identifier recalculates a posteriori these probabilities subject to a distance between sources. It is applied to distinguish two location estimates obtained in the planar time difference of arrival mobile communication network. The work of the identifier is studied in the domain of closely spaced network users where covariance matrices of estimates are sufficiently approximated by the constant. The application gives an example of how the identifier revises the prior probabilities and can change thereby the initial preference of a hypothesis with a distance between users in some cases.

Vegetation status assessment is crucial for agricultural monitoring and management. Vegetation indices derived from high resolution image time series can be used to derive key phenological parameters for annual crops. In this work, we propose a procedure for the estimation of these parameters and their associated uncertainties. The approach uses Bayesian inference through Markov Chain Monte Carlo in order to obtain the full joint posterior distribution of the phenological parameters given the satellite observations. The proposed algorithm is quantitatively validated on synthetic data. Its use on real data is presented together with an application to real-time within season estimation allowing for phenology forecasting.

The incorporation of unmanned aircraft terminal operations into the scope of Detect and Avoid systems necessitates analysis of the safety performance of those systems—principally, an assessment of how well those systems prevent loss of well clear from and collision with other aircraft. This type of analysis has typically been conducted by Monte Carlo simulation with synthetic, statistically representative encounters between aircraft drawn from an appropriate encounter model. While existing encounter models include terminal airspace classes, none explicitly represents the structure expected while engaged in terminal operations, e.g., aircraft in a traffic pattern. The work described herein is an initial model of such operations, scoped at this time specifically for assessment of unmanned aircraft landings and encounters with other aircraft either landing or taking off. The model shares the Bayesian network foundation of other MIT Lincoln Laboratory encounter models but tailors those networks to address structured terminal operations, i.e., correlations between trajectories and the airfield and each other. This initial model release is intended to elicit feedback from the standards-writing community.

A vast majority of the countries is under the economic and health crises due to the current epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The present study analyzes the COVID-19 using time series, which is an essential gizmo for knowing the enlargement of infection and its changing behavior, especially the trending model. We have considered an autoregressive model with a non-linear time trend component that approximately converted into the linear trend using the spline function. The spline function split the COVID-19 series into different piecewise segments between respective knots and fitted the linear time trend. First, we obtain the number of knots with its locations in the COVID-19 series and then the estimation of the best-fitted model parameters are determined under Bayesian setup. The results advocate that the proposed model/methodology is a useful procedure to convert the non-linear time trend into a linear pattern of newly coronavirus case for various countries in the pandemic situation of COVID-19.

Understanding surface water evaporation in tropical catchments is pivotal for effective water management, but limited research exists on stable isotopic (δ2H and δ18O) assessment of water evaporation losses. Our study bridges that gap, examining stable isotopes in meteoric water and surface waters across tropical regions, both humid and semi-arid. Using the Craig-Gordon model, we calibrated evaporation-to-inflow (E/I) ratios, identifying distinct E/I variations between seasons and regions. Notably, the semi-arid region consistently exhibited higher E/I ratios due to climatic characteristics. By integrating the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and the No-U-Turn Sampler, we were able to quantify uncertainties in isotopic and meteorological parameters, resulting in E/I estimates within 68% and 95% confidence intervals. Our Bayesian model insights are critical for freshwater resource optimization and hydrological modeling in tropical regions.

Generalized Bayes is a Bayesian approach based on the learning rate parameter η. In this study, we examine the effect of parameter η on the estimation results considering joint type-I and type-II hybrid censored samples from k exponential populations. In addition to the learning rate parameter, we consider two loss functions, the Linex and general entropy loss functions in the Bayesian approach. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the estimation results under losses and different values of η. An illustrative example is performed to study the effect of the learning rate parameter and the different losses with different parameters.

Bayesian model calibration techniques are commonly employed in the characterization of nonlinear dynamic systems, as they provide a conceptual and effective framework to deal with model uncertainties, experimental errors and procedure assumptions. This understanding has resulted in the need to introduce a model discrepancy term to account for the differences between model-based predictions and real observations. Indeed, the goal of this work is to enhance model-driven Structural Health Monitoring procedures by incorporating the posterior uncertainty linked to updated model discrepancy, and thus make relevant considerations for its use in the Structural Health Monitoring. Specifically, the Bayesian inference has been applied to the calibration of nonlinear hysteretic systems to both provide: (i) most probable values (MPV) of the parameters following the calibration, and; (ii) estimates of the model discrepancy posterior distribution. The effect of the model discrepancy in the calibration is first illustrated recurring to a single degree of freedom Bouc-Wen type oscillator, and then applied for calibrating a reference nonlinear Bouc-Wen model, deriving from real data acquired on a monitored masonry building.

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are causing significant damages to many nations. For mitigating its risk, Japan’s Prime Minister called on all elementary, junior high and high schools nationwide to close beginning March 1, 2020. However, its effectiveness in decreasing disease burden has not been investigated. Methods: We used daily data on the report of COVID-19 and coronavirus infection incidence in Japan until March 31, 2020. Time series analysis were conducted using Bayesian method. Local linear trend models with interventional effect were constructed for number of newly reported cases of COVID-19, including asymptomatic infections. We considered that the effects of intervention start to appear 9 days after the school closure; i.e., on March 9. Results: The intervention of school closure did not appear to decrease the incidence of coronavirus infection. If the effectiveness of school closure began on March 9, mean coefficient α for effectiveness of the measure was calculated to be 0.08 (95% credible interval -0.36 to 0.65), and the actual reported cases were more than predicted, yet with rather wide credible interval. Sensitivity analyses using different dates also showed similar results. Conclusions: School closure carried out in Japan did not show the effectiveness to mitigate the transmission of novel coronavirus infection.

Comorbidities can have a cumulative effect on hospital outcomes of care, such as the length of stay (LOS), and hospital mortality. This study examines patients hospitalized with Congestive Heart Failure (CHF), a life-threatening condition, which, when it coexists with a burdened disease profile, the risk for negative hospital outcomes increases. Since coexisting conditions co-interact, with a variable effect on outcomes, clinicians should be able to recognize these joint effects. In order to study CHF comorbidities, we used medical claims data from CMS. After extracting the most frequent cluster of CHF comorbidities, we: (i) Calculated, step-by-step, the conditional probabilities for each disease combination inside this cluster (ii) Estimated the cumulative effect of each comorbidity combination on the LOS and hospital mortality (iii) Constructed (a) Bayesian, scenario-based graphs and (b) Bayes-networks to visualize results. Results show that, for CHF patients, different comorbidity constructs have variable effect on the LOS and hospital mortality. Therefore, dynamic comorbidity risk assessment methods should be implemented for informed clinical decision making in any ongoing effort for quality of care improvements.

When extract building from high resolution remote sensing image with meter/sub-meter accuracy, the shade of trees and interference of roads are the main factors of reducing the extraction accuracy. Proposed a Bayesian Convolutional Neural Networks(BCNET) model base on standard fully convolutional networks(FCN) to solve these problems. First take building with no shade or artificial removal of shade as Sample-A, woodland as Sample-B, road as Sample-C. Set up 3 sample libraries. Learn these sample libraries respectively, get their own set of feature vector; Mixture Gauss model these feature vector set, evaluate the conditional probability density function of mixture of noise object and roofs; Improve the standard FCN from the 2 aspect:(1) Introduce atrous convolution. (2) Take conditional probability density function as the activation function of the last convolution. Carry out experiment using unmanned aerial vehicle(UVA) image, the results show that BCNET model can effectively eliminate the influence of trees and roads, the building extraction accuracy can reach 97%.

Aiming at the problem that the performance of Adaptive Kalman filter estimation will be affected when the statistical characteristics of the process and measurement noise matrix are inaccurate and time-varying in the linear Gaussian state-space model, an algorithm of Multi-fading factor and update monitoring strategy adaptive Kalman filter based variational Bayesian is proposed. Inverse Wishart distribution is selected as the measurement noise model, the system state vector and measurement noise covariance matrix are estimated with the variational Bayesian method. The process noise covariance matrix is estimated by the maximum a posteriori principle, and the update monitoring strategy with adjustment factors is used to maintain the positive semi-definite of the updated matrix. The above optimal estimation results are introduced as time-varying parameters into the multiple fading factors to improve the estimation accuracy of the one-step state predicted covariance matrix. The application of the proposed algorithm in target tracking is simulated. The results show that compared with the current filters, the proposed filtering algorithm has better accuracy and convergence performance, and realizes the simultaneous estimation of inaccurate time-varying process and measurement noise covariance matrices.

Knowledge-based approaches are useful alternatives to predict the Failure Probability (FP) coping with the insufficient data, process integrity, and complexity issue in manufacturing systems. This study proposes a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) approach as proactive knowledge-based technique to estimate the FP based maintenance planning with subjective information from domain experts. However, the classical-FTA still suffers from uncertainty and static structure limitations which poses a substantial dilemma in predicting FP. To deal with the uncertainty issues, a Fuzzy-FTA (FFTA) model was developed by statistical analysing the effective attributes such as experts' trait impacts, scales variation and, assorted membership and defuzzification functions. Besides, a Bayesian Network (BN) theory was conducted to overcome the static limitation of classical-FTA. The results of FFTA model revealed that the changes in decision attributes were not statistically significant on FP variation while BN model considering conditional rules to reflect the dynamic relationship between events had more impact on predicting FP. After all, the integrated FFTA-BN model was used in the optimization model to find the optimal maintenance intervals according to estimated FP and the total expected cost. As a practical example, the proposed model was implemented in a semi-automatic filling system in an automotive production line. The outcomes could be useful for upgrading the availability and safety of complex equipment in manufacturing systems.

The tobacco epidemic is one of the leading public health threats the world has ever faced and public health policy that seeks to limit the problem may not only have to target the price of tobacco but also the initiation stage in a smoker’s life – the adolescent stage. This research contributes to the health economics literature by using a Bayesian hierarchical logistic model, estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) methods to empirically identify what drives the intentions to quit smoking among adolescent smokers in Zambia. Results suggest that among the junior secondary school-going adolescent smokers in Zambia, about 63% have plans to quit smoking. We find socio-demographic characteristics and several tobacco-smoking-related factors as the main drivers of adolescent smokers’ plans to quit smoking. Most importantly, we provide insights that could be useful to help adolescent smokers realize their quitting plans.

This study is framed on the Information Theory as a constructive criterion to generate probabilistic distributions –through the elaboration of Bayesian Networks- and to reduce the uncertainty in the occurrence and relationship between two key psychological variables associated with the sports’ performance: Self-Determined Motivation and Competitive Anxiety. We analyzed 674 universitary students/athletes who competed in the 2017 Universitary Games (Universiade) in México, from 44 universities, with an average age of 21 years old (SD = 2.07), and with a sportive experience of 8.61 years of average (SD = 5.15). Methods: Regarding the data analysis, first of all a CHAID algorithm was carried out for to know the independence links among variables, and then two Bayesian networks (BN) were elaborated. The validation of the BN revealed AUC values ranging from 0.5 to 0.92. Subsequently, various instantations were carried out with hypothetical values applied to the “bottom” variables. Results showed two probability trees that have Extrinisic Motivation and Amotivation at the top, while the anxiety/activation due to the worry for performance was at the bottom of probabilities. The instantiations carried out support the existence of these probabilistic relationships, demonstrating the little influence on the competition anxiety generated by the intrinsic motivation. In conclusion, the reduction of the uncertainty made up by the restricted BN may aloe to re-introduce Information Theory principles in psychosocial studies, allowing authors to obtain useful probabilities values upon target psychological variables related with sportive performance.

The ongoing evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has resulted in the recent emergence of a highly divergent variant of concern (VOC) defined as Omicron or B.1.1.529. This VOC is of particular concern because it has the potential to evade most therapeutic antibodies and has undergone a sustained genetic evolution, resulting in the emergence of five distinct sub-lineages. However, the evolutionary dynamics of initially identified Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 sub-lineages remain poorly understood. Herein, we combined Bayesian phylogenetic analysis, mutational profiling, and selection pressure analysis to track virus genetic changes that drive the early evolutionary dynamics of the Omicron. Based on the Omicron dataset chosen for the improved temporal signals and sampled globally between November 2021 and January 2022, most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) and substitution rates for BA.1 were estimated to be 18 September 2021 (95% highest posterior density (HPD) 04 August – 22 October 2021) and 1.435×10-3 (95% HPD = 1.021×10-3 – 1.869×10-3) substitution/site/year, respectively, whereas 03 November 2021 (95% highest posterior density (HPD) 26 September – 28 November 2021) and 1.074×10-3 (95% HPD = 6.444×10-4 – 1.586×10-3) substitution/site/year for BA.2 sub-lineage. The findings of this study suggest that the Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 sub-lineages originated independently and evolved over time. Furthermore, we identified multiple sites in spike protein undergoing continued diversifying selection that may alter the neutralization profile of BA.1. This study shed light on the ongoing global genomic surveillance and Bayesian molecular dating analyses to better understand the evolutionary dynamics the virus and, as a result, mitigate the impact of emerging variants on public health.

The goal of VAR or BVAR is the characterization of the dynamics and endogenous relationships among time series. Also the VAR models are known for their applications to forecasting and policy analysis. This paper compare the performance of VAR and Sims-Zha Bayesian VAR models when the multiple time series are jointly influenced by different levels of collinearity and autocorrelation in the short term (T=16, 32, 64 and 128). Five levels (-0.9,-0.5, 0,+0.5,+0.9) of collinearity and autocorrelation were considered and the results from the simulation study revealed that VAR(2) model dominated for no and moderate levels of autocorrelation (-0.5, 0, +0.5) irrespective of the collinearity level except in few cases when T=16. While the BVAR models dominated for high autocorrelation levels (-0.9 and +0.9) irrespective of the collinearity level except in few cases when T=128. The performance of the models varies at different levels of the collinearity and autocorrelated error, and also varies with the short term periods. Furthermore, the values of the RMSE and MAE criteria decrease as a result of increase in the time series length. In conclusion, the performance of the forecasting models depend on the time series data structure and the time series length. It is therefore recommended that the data structure and series length should be considered in using an appropriate model for forecasting.

The hourly and daily rainfall data which is spatially distributed are required as an input for run-off rain model. Furthermore, the run-off rain model is used to detect early flooding. The daily and hourly rainfall data have characteristics that most of data are zero. Therefore we need a model which can capture the phenomenon. A time series model involving location, which is a model that can be developed to approach the daily and hourly rainfall data, we can call Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The VAR model allows us for modeling rainfall data in several areas. However, in certain conditions the VAR model often occurs over-parameterization and reduces degrees of freedom. The aim of this study is to compare the VAR model with Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) and Bayesian to hourly and daily rainfall data in SampeanWatershed of Bondowoso. The results showed that the hourly and daily rainfall data are fitted to VAR process of orde 5 and 1 respectively. Based on the AIC and SBC values indicate that the Bayesian is better than the MLE method. The Bayesian is able to predict parameters by producing a smaller variance covariance matrix than the MLE.

Appeals to governments for implementing basic income systems are contemporary. The theoretical background of the basic income notion, only prescribes transferring equal amounts to individuals irrespective of their socioeconomic attributes. However, the most recent basic income initiatives all around the world are attached to certain attributes of the households to become the eligible receivers. Iran is known as the first country in the world to provide a de facto based on the definition basic income to all its citizens irrespective of their socioeconomic attributes. Since the recent years and in the face of budget constraints, the Iranian government has been attempting to consider a set of rules with regard to the welfare attributes of the receiver households to become eligible. This approach is facing significant challenges with regard to appropriate classification of the relative vulnerable from the relative wealthier groups. Can integrating machine learning contribute to reliable recognition of households’ eligibility? In this paper, we analyze this question by utilizing the official welfare statistics of one and a half million Iranian citizens and a Bayesian network approach. Our analysis provides insight into whether machine learning will forward the future of the original basic income notion towards an intelligible direction.