The main objective of this study is to search better prediction result of rainy seasonal rainfall (15 June-15 August). A correlation between rainfall of Bengali rainy seasons at Rangpur, Dhaka, Barisal and Sylhet and global sea surface temperature (SST) of different areas of the world was studied by using the both data of 1975- 2008 years with the help of the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) to find more positive correlated SST with observed rainfall and use as predictor for giving the prediction of the year 2009. Using SST of one month before rainy season as predictor, the positive deviation of predicted rainfall from observed rainfall was 1.34 mm/day at Sylhet and 0.9 mm/day at Dhaka. The negative deviation of mean rainfall was 1.16 mm/day at Rangpur and 1.10 mm/day at Barisal. Again, using of starting one month SST of rainy season as predictor, positive deviation of predicted rainfall from observed rainfall was 4.03 mm/day at Sylhet. The positive deviation of daily mean rainfall was found 6.58 mm/day at Dhaka and 6.23 mm/day over southern Bangladesh. The study reveals that sea surface temperature (SST) of one month before rainy season was better predictor than SST of starting month of rainy season.

Existing research indicates that mineralization of Carlin-type gold deposit is related to geological structures, but current studies mostly focus on the qualitative association, and lack quantitative analysis of the relationship between mineralization and structural features, which limits the potential for predictive mineral exploration. In this study, the Nibao Carlin-type gold deposit was selected as the research area to conduct three-dimensional geological modeling, spatial analysis, and three-dimensional prospectivity modeling. Spatial analysis revealed that the majority of gold ore bodies are situated near the main fault, with gold mineralization primarily occurring within a spatial range of approximately -80 meters to 20 meters from the main fault plane. This spatial distribution predominantly aligns in a SW-NE direction. Spatial characteristic extraction of fault slope indicators suggests that the slope angles are conducive to the migration and accumulation of ore-forming hydrothermal fluids, with ore body metal content rapidly increasing within an angle range of approximately 20° to 60°. The shape analysis of the mainfault indicates that the principal spaces of mineralization enrichment are within -10m to 20m of the fault plane undulations, where gold resources are concentrated in a relatively flat area. However, the degree of mineralization is more pronounced in the protruding sections than in the depressed areas. The areas with significant dip changes in faults display higher variations in orebody attitudes, with mineralization noticeably weaker in areas where the fault steepness changes markedly. Ore-bearing units exhibit significantly higher grades within the -17° to 3° interval of fault steepness transition. This interval also sees a rapid accumulation of gold resources. The Nibao gold mine's mineralization is derived from deep, ore-bearing hydrothermal fluids ascending along major fractures, precipitating, and accumulating in favorable ore-hosting spaces (faults, anticline cores) and lithological combinations (sedimentary tuffs, tuffs). Three deep potential gold targets were identified, highlighting the deep western edge of the F1 fault and the deep southeast-trending lower plate as prospective areas for future exploration. This study underscores the effectiveness of 3D prospective modeling as an indispensable tool for elucidating the spatial distribution of fault-controlled Carlin-type gold deposits and their tectonic determinants.

Water quality assessment in pastoral of Tibetan Plateau, which is water sources for about 40% of world's population and the runoff-yield area of Yellow rivers, is very important. In this paper, Xiahe county which belongs to Tibetan Plateau pastoral was investigated. Six parameters(via, chloride, COD, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate, fluoride, sulfate) were selected to assess the water quality and health degree by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods. The hydrochemical type in surface water was of HCO3--Mg2+-Ca2+ type. The cations and anions in surface water were mainly from weathering and dissolution of carbonate rock. Results showed that the water quality in all 69 sampling sites was all of class Ⅰ. The integrated health degree reached more than 0.85 and the health rate were 100%. Although ammonia nitrogen was regarded as the main contamination factor, but it had a little effect on the entire body of water. Overall, the surface water qualities of most samples in Xiahe County was good condition.

Heavy rains have created significant threats to human health and life. Floods and other natural disasters, which have a global impact annually, can be attributed to extended durations of intense precipitation. Accurate rainfall predictions are crucial in nations such as Bangladesh, where agriculture is the predominant occupation. The efficiency of machine learning (ML) methods is enhanced by the non-linearity of rainfall, surpassing the effectiveness of other alternative ways. Machine learning techniques show that individual classifiers exhibit worse accuracy than ensemble learning (EL) methodologies. Ensemble Learning techniques are utilized for rainfall prediction and estimating rainfall quantity and daily average temperature to enhance comprehension of the diverse Machine Learning algorithms. This research implements the machine learning techniques and ensemble-based classifier to predict the rainfall occurrence, along with the machine learning regressor models and ensemble-based regressor for the rainfall amount prediction and daily average temperature prediction, using Bangladesh Weather Dataset. The results of the machine learning and ensemble-based models are compared using the Accuracy and F1 score for rainfall occurrence prediction. In contrast, MAE and RMSE evaluation metrics are used for ensemble regressor and regression algorithms for the rainfall amount and daily average temperature prediction. With an accuracy of 83.41% and a recall of 78.17%, the Ensemble Classifier is the best at predicting when it will rain, but its precision of 51.16% stands in for the lowest. The Ensemble Regression model outperforms Linear Regression, Random Forest, and SVR in rainfall amount prediction, with the lowest MAE of 0.36 and RMSE of 0.90. The Ensemble Regression provides the most precise results for daily average temperature prediction with the lowest MAE 0.42 and RMSE 0.54 highlighting its superiority over the other regression models in forecasting temperature with less error. Ensemble approaches consistently lead task performance metrics.

This study estimates rainfall interception losses from natural wetland ecosystems based on maximum canopy storage measurements. Rainfall interception losses play an important role in water balance, which is crucial in wetlands, and has not yet been thoroughly studied in relation to this type of ecosystem. Maximum canopy storage was measured using the weight method. Based on these measurements, daily values of interception losses were estimated and then used to calculate long term interception losses based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data for the 1971–2015 period. Depending mainly on the number of days with precipitation, the results show that total interception losses for the growing season as well as monthly interception losses are around 13% of gross rainfall. This value is similar to the values observed for some forests. Hence, interception losses should not be disregarded in hydrologic models of wetlands, especially because data trends in meteorological conditions (mainly number of days with precipitation) show that interception losses will increase in the future if those trends stay the same.

Tanzania like any other developing countries is depending on uncertain rainfall for their subsistence and commercial agriculture. In this paper the start and end of rains for Mbeya Meteorological Station in Tanzania Mainland was analyzed and critically examined. Data were kindly given by Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) during face to face Statistics in Applied Climatology (fSIAC) workshop which was held at Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA) the year 2013 prior to online Course on Statistics in Applied climatology (eSIAC). In this study data were analyzed using Instat (for windows version 3.3.7) package developed by the Statistical Services Centre of the University of Reading. The analysis showed that much of rains start early December all the way to May. There is also 50 percent chance of having below and above the mean for both total annual rainfall and number of rains, in other word one in two years the total rains are below means likewise the number of rain days.

Rainfall is a major climate parameter whose variation in space and time influences activities in different weather sensitive sectors such as agriculture, transport, and energy among others. Therefore, accurately forecasting rainfall is of paramount importance to the development of these sectors. In this regard, this study sought to contribute to quantitative forecasting of rainfall over Eastern Uganda through assessing the Weather Research and Forecasting model’s ability to simulate the intra–seasonal characteristics of the September to December rain season. These were: onset and cessation dates; wet days and lengths of the wet spells. The data used in the study included daily ground rainfall observations and lateral and boundary conditions data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) final analysis at 1 0 horizontal resolution and at a temporal resolution of 6 hours for the entire study period were used to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The study considered four weather synoptic weather stations namely; Jinja, Serere, Soroti and Tororo. The results show that the WRF model generally simulated fewer wet days at each station except for Tororo. Also, the WRF model simulated earlier onset and cessation dates of the rainfall season and overestimated the length of the wet spells.

It has been an outstanding challenge for global climate models to simulate and predict East Asia (EA) summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall. This study evaluates the dynamical hindcast skills with the newly developed Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model version 3.0 (NESM3.0). To improve the poor prediction of an earlier version of NESM3.0, we have modified convective parameterization schemes to suppress excessive deep convection and enhance insufficient shallow and stratiform clouds. The new version of NESM3.0 with modified parameterizations (MOD hereafter) yields significantly improved rainfall prediction in the northern and southern China but not over the Yangtze River Valley. The improved prediction is primarily attributed to the improvements in the predicted climatological summer mean rainfall and circulations, seasonal march of the subtropical rain belt, Nino 3.4 SST anomaly, and the rainfall anomalies associated with the development and decay of El Nino events. However, the MOD still has notable biases in the predicted leading mode of interannual variability of precipitation. The leading mode captures the dry (wet) anomalies over the South China Sea (northern EA) but misplaced precipitation anomalies over the Yangtze River Valley. The model can capture the interannual variation of the circulation indices very well, but the bias in the circulation-rainfall connection caused predicted rainfall errors. The results here suggest that over EA land regions, the skillful rainfall prediction relies on not only model’s capability in predicting better summer mean and seasonal march of rainfall and ENSO teleconnection with EASM, but also accurate prediction of the leading modes of interannual variability.

Accurate and consistent rainfall observations are vital for climatological studies in support of better planning and decision making. However, estimation of accurate spatial rainfall is limited by sparse rain gauge distributions. Satellite rainfall products can thus potentially play a role in spatial rainfall estimation but their skill and uncertainties need to be under-stood across spatial-time scales. This study aimed at assessing the temporal and spatial performance of seven satellite products (TARCAT (Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT) African Rainfall Climatology And Time series), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM-3B43), Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Morphing (CMORPH), the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks- Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) using gridded (0.05o) rainfall data over East Africa for 15 years(1998-2012). The products’ error distributions were qualitatively compared with large scale horizontal winds (850 mb) and elevation patterns with respect to corresponding rain gauge data for each month during the ‘long’ (March-May) and ‘short’ (October-December) rainfall seasons. For validation only rainfall means extracted from 284 rain gauge stations were used, from which qualitative analysis using continuous statistics of Root Mean Squared Difference, Standard deviations, Correlations, coefficient of determinations (from scatter plots) were used to evaluate the products’ performance. Results revealed rainfall variability dependence on wind flows and modulated by topographic influences. The products’ errors showed seasonality and dependent on rainfall intensity and topography. Single sensor and coarse resolution products showed lowest performance on high ground areas. All the products showed low skills in retrieving rainfall during ‘short’ rainfall season when orographic processes were dominant. CHIRPS, CMORPH and TRMM performed well, with TRMM showing the best performance in both seasons. There is need to reduce products’ errors before applications.

This study investigates the spatio-temporal variability of the onset, offset, and Length of the rainy season in Senegal over the 1981-2018 period. The onset, offset dates, and length of the rainy season are crucial parameters for agricultural planning in West Africa, which exhibits high interannual and spatial variability in rainfall. The objective is to detect and spatially classify these phenological parameters across Senegal using different approaches. Daily precipitation data from the Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset over the study period and ERA5 reanalysis were used. The method of was applied to detect the onset, offset dates, and length of the rainy season. The Kohonen algorithm was then used to spatially classify these parameters on topological maps. A hierarchical ascendant classification was also performed to reduce the number of classes obtained. Finally, a composite analysis of moisture transport before the onset and end of the 1984 and 2007 seasons was conducted with ERA5 data. The results show a meridional gradient of the start of the season, progressively later from southeast to northwest, while the end follows a north-south gradient. The duration of the rainy season ranges from 45 days in northern Senegal to 150 days in the south. The maximum number of dry days also decreases from north to south. The Kohonen self-organizing maps allow spatial prediction of the onset, end date, and duration of the rainy season across Senegal. The dynamics analysis reveals that early onset years are associated with stronger and earlier northward moisture transport over West Africa, underscoring the role of this parameter in triggering the rainy season. These promising results can provide an early warning to policymakers and farmers on the start and end dates of the season in each area of Senegal.

Spatial pattern-oriented evaluations of distributed hydrological models have contributed towards an improved realism of hydrological simulations. This advancement was supported by the broad range of readily available satellite-based datasets of key hydrological variables, such as evapotranspiration (ET). At larger scale, spatial patterns of ET are often characterized by an underlying climate gradient, and with this study, we argue that gradient dominated patterns may hamper the potential of spatial pattern-oriented evaluation frameworks. We hypothesize that the climate control of spatial patterns of ET overshadows the effect model parameters have on the simulated variability. To solve this limitation, we propose a climate normalization strategy. This is demonstrated for the Senegal River basin as modeling case study, where the dominant north-south precipitation gradient is the main driver of the observed hydrological variability. Two multi-objective calibration experiments investigate the effect of climate normalization. Both calibrations utilize observed discharge (Q) in combination with remote sensing ET data, where one is based on the original ET pattern and the other utilizes the normalized ET pattern. We identify parameter sets that balance the tradeoffs between the two independent observations and find that the calibration using the normalized ET pattern does not compromise the spatial patern performance of the original pattern. However, vice versa, this is not necessarily the case, since the calibration using the original ET pattern showed a poorer performance for the normalized pattern. Both calibrations reached comparable performance of Q. With this study, we identified a general shortcoming of spatial pattern-oriented model evaluations using ET in basins dominated by a climate gradient, but we argue that this also applies to other variables such as, soil moisture or land surface temperature.

Accurate and timely rainfall prediction enhances productivity and can aid proper planning in sectors such as agriculture, health, transport and water resources. This study is aimed at improving rainfall prediction using ensemble methods. It first assesses the performance of six convective schemes (Kain–Fritsch (KF); Betts–Miller–Janji´c (BMJ); Grell–Fretas (GF); Grell 3D ensemble (G3); New–Tiedke (NT) and Grell–Devenyi (GD)) using the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean error (ME) focusing on the March–May 2013 rainfall period over Uganda. 18 ensemble members are generated from the three best performing convective schemes (i.e. KF, GF & G3). The performance of three ensemble methods (i.e. ensemble mean (EM); ensemble mean analogue (EMA) and multi–member analogue ensemble (MAEM)) is also analyzed using the RMSE and ME. The EM presented a smaller RMSE compared to individual schemes (EM:10.02; KF:23.96; BMJ:26.04; GF:25.85; G3:24.07; NT:29.13 & GD:26.27) and a better bias (EM:-1.28; KF:-1.62; BMJ:-4.04; GF:-3.90; G3:-3.62; NT:-5.41 & GD:-4.07). The EMA and MAEM presented 13 out of 21 stations & 17 out of 21 stations respectively with smaller RMSE compared to EM thus demonstrating additional improvement in predictive performance. The MAEM is a new approach proposed and described in the study.

Recently, some authors have claimed that we may live in one of a pair of universes in which one is expanding receding from the Big Bang and its partner is contracting and moving towards the Big Bang. We show that near a black hole binary system, this event may be occurring. If we suppose that there is a N dimensional brane which contains many smaller k dimensional branes and black holes, there is a possibility that the curved space times near black holes act like mirrors. This is because these space-times contain two regions such that the branes in the one region have opposite quantum numbers with respect to the branes in the other region. Also, if branes in one region are expanding and go away from a point state and the Big Bang, anti-branes in the other region are contracting and moving towards the point state and the Big Bang. If black holes join and form a binary system, then their states become similar to two mirrors that are facing each other and producing many images themselves of smaller branes and even black holes in the binary system. Summing over all branes and images give the CPT system. Dark energy could be a result of the images of observed matter. Comparing the masses of the observed objects and dark energy, the angle between cosmic mirrors like black hole binary systems could be determined.

Hydrologic models are conventionally constrained and evaluated using point measurements of streamflow, which represents an aggregated catchment measure. As a consequence of this single objective focus, model parametrization and model parameter sensitivity are typically not reflecting other aspects of catchment behavior. Specifically for distributed models, the spatial pattern aspect is often overlooked. Our paper examines the utility of multiple performance measures in a spatial sensitivity analysis framework to determine the key parameters governing the spatial variability of predicted actual evapotranspiration (AET). Latin hypercube one-at-a-time (LHS-OAT) sampling strategy with multiple initial parameter sets was applied using the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) and a total of 17 model parameters were identified as sensitive. The results indicate different parameter sensitivities for different performance measures focusing on temporal hydrograph dynamics and spatial variability of actual evapotranspiration. While spatial patterns were found to be sensitive to vegetation parameters, streamflow dynamics were sensitive to pedo-transfer function (PTF) parameters. Above all, our results show that behavioral model definition based only on streamflow metrics in the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) type methods require reformulation by incorporating spatial patterns into the definition of threshold values to reveal robust hydrologic behavior in the analysis.

This study was undertaken to derive and analyze the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E) sea surface temperature (SST) footprint associated with the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) Level-2 (L2) product. The footprint, in this case, is characterized by the weight attributed to each 4  4 km square contributing to the SST value of a given AMSR-E pixel. High-resolution L2 SST fields obtained from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), carried on the same spacecraft as AMSR-E, are used as the sub-resolution “ground truth“ from which the AMSR-E footprint is determined. Mathematically, the approach is equivalent to a linear inversion problem, and its solution is pursued by means of a constrained least square approximation based on the bootstrap sampling procedure. The method yielded an elliptic-like Gaussian kernel with an aspect ratio  1.58, very close to the AMSR-E 6.93GHz channel aspect ratio,  1.7. (The 6.93GHz channel is the primary spectral frequency used to determine SST.) The semi-major axis of the estimated footprint is found to be alignedwith the instantaneous field-of-view of the sensor as expected fromthe geometric characteristics of AMSR-E. Footprintswere also analyzed year-by-year and as a function of latitude and found to be stable – no dependence on latitude or on time. Precise knowledge of the footprint is central for any satellite-derived product characterization and, in particular, for efforts to deconvolve the heavily oversampled AMSR-E SST fields and for studies devoted to product validation and comparison. A preliminarly analysis suggests that use of the derived footprint will reduce the variance between AMSR-E and MODIS fields compared to the results obtained.

The primary measure of the quality of sea surface temperature (SST) fields obtained from satellite-borne infrared sensors has been the bias and variance of matchups with co-located in-situ values. Because such matchups tend to be widely separated, these bias and variance estimates are not necessarily a good measure of small scale (several pixels) gradients in these fields because one of the primary contributors to the uncertainty in satellite retrievals is atmospheric contamination, which tends to have large spatial scales compared with the pixel separation of infrared sensors. Hence, there is not a good measure to use in selecting SST fields appropriate for the study of submesoscale processes and, in particular, of processes associated with near-surface fronts, both of which have recently seen a rapid increase in interest. In this study, two methods are examined to address this problem, one based on spectra of the SST data and the other on their variograms. To evaluate the methods, instrument noise was estimated in Level-2 VIIRS and AVHRR SST fields of the Sargasso Sea. The two methods provided very nearly identical results for AVHRR: along-scan values of approximately 0.18 K for both day and night and along-track values of 0.21 K also for day and night. By contrast, the instrument noise estimated for VIIRS varied by method, scan geometry and day-night. Specifically, daytime, along-scan (along-track), spectral estimates were found to be approximately 0.05 K (0.08 K) and the corresponding nighttime values of 0.02 K (0.03 K). Daytime estimates based on the variogram were found to be 0.08 K (0.10 K) with the corresponding nighttime values of 0.04 K (0.06 K). Taken together: AVHRR instrument noise is significantly larger than VIIRS instrument noise, along-track noise is larger than along-scan noise and daytime levels are higher than nighttime levels. Given the similarity of results and the less stringent preprocessing requirements, the variogram is the preferred method although there is a suggestion that this approach overestimates the noise for high quality data in dynamically quiet regions. Finally, simulations of the impact of noise on the determination of SST gradients show that on average the gradient magnitude for typical ocean gradients will be accurately estimated with VIIRS but substantially overestimated with AVHRR.

This paper analyses the application of deep learning techniques for predicting wave overtopping events in port environments using sea state and weather forecasts as inputs. The study was conducted in the outer port of Punta Langosteira, A Coruña, Spain. A video recording infrastructure was installed to monitor overtopping events from 2015 to 2022, identifying 3709 overtopping events. The data collected was merged with actual and predicted data for the sea state and weather conditions during the overtopping events, creating three datasets. We used these datasets to create several machine learning models to predict whether an overtopping event would occur based on sea state and weather conditions. The final models achieved a high accuracy level during the training and testing stages: 0.81, 0.73, and 0.84 average accuracy during training and 0.67, 0.48, and 0.86 average accuracy during testing, respectively. The results of this study have significant implications for port safety and efficiency, as wave overtopping events can cause disruptions and potential damage. Using deep learning techniques for overtopping prediction can help port managers take preventative measures and optimize operations, ultimately improving safety and helping to minimize the economic impact that overtopping events have on the port's activities.

Day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers, and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participate in predicting the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, Fixed Weight Method (FWM) and Varying Weight Method (VWM), for selecting each hour's expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features derived from information such as past electricity price data, weather data, and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than both the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF) method and our own previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) alone do on the datasets for New York, Australian, and Spanish electricity markets.

The geotechnical characterisation of offshore wind farm sites requires measurement or estimation of the small-strain shear stiffness Gmax of the subsoil. This parameter can be derived from shear wave velocity Vs measurements if the bulk density of the soil is known. Since direct measurements of Vs are generally not available at all foundation locations in a wind farm, CPT-based correlations are often used to determine location-specific stiffness parameters for foundation design. Existing correlations have mostly been calibrated to onshore datasets which may not contain the same soil types and stress conditions found in the North Sea. The distinct geological history of the North Sea necessitates a critical review of these existing CPT-based correlations. They are evaluated against an extensive database of in-situ Vs measurements in the Southern North Sea. The importance of modelling the stress-dependent nature of Vs is highlighted and a novel stress-dependent model for Vs from CPT data is presented. As the small-strain stiffness is used as an input to foundation response calculations, the model uncertainty of the correlation can introduce significant uncertainty in the resulting foundation response. This transformation uncertainty is quantified for each of the correlations evaluated in this study and shows important variations.

High-resolution (2 km) high-frequency (hourly) SST data from 2015-2020 provided by the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) onboard the Japanese Himawari-8 geostationary satellite positioned over 140.7°E were used to study spatial and temporal variability of the China Coastal Front (CCF) in the East China Sea. The hourly SST data were processed with the Belkin and O’Reilly (2009) algorithm to generate long-term mean monthly maps of SST gradient magnitude (GM) and frontal frequency (FM) using a GM threshold of 0.1°C/km. Horizontal structure of SST field in the vicinity of the CCF was investigated from cross-frontal distributions of SST along 8 parallels from 31°N to 24°N. The high resolution (2 km) monthly distributions of SST along these 8 parallels were used to determine inshore and offshore boundaries of the CCF and calculate the CCF strength defined as the total cross-frontal SST step dSST=Offshore SST – Inshore SST. The CCF emerges in November, fully develops in December and peaks in strength in January-February. The front’s fragmentation and shrinking/weakening begins in February and March, respectively. In winter (December-February), the front’s strength dSST exceeds 5°C offshore the Zhejiang-Fujian coast and could be as high as 7.5°C when nearshore waters cool down to 7°C. In winter, the front’s strength decreases downstream from 31°N to 24°N. The CCF changes its physical nature as the seasons progress. In winter, the CCF is a water mass front between cold and fresh water coming from the north and warm and salty water coming from the south. In summer, the CCF becomes a coastal upwelling front maintained largely by southerly winds. In winter, the CCF’s cross-frontal structure in the SST field is ramp-shaped, with SST increasing monotonously in the offshore direction. In summer, the CCF’s cross-frontal structure in the SST field is V-shaped or U-shaped, featuring a minimum SST formed by cold upwelled water at some distance from the shore. Thus, the summer SST structure effectively consists of two fronts, a nearshore and offshore, with a minimum SST in-between. Across the inshore/offshore front, the SST decreases/increases in the offshore direction. The local bathymetry, especially the relatively steep shelf slope between 20-m and 50-m isobath, steers the front, which does not meander in winter offshore the Zhejiang-Fujian coast. As the cold season progresses, the front’s axis gradually shifts into deeper waters, from ~20 m to ~50 m.

A PLS-based quality prediction method is proposed for batch processes using two-dimensional extended windows. To realize the adoption of information in the direction of sampling time and batch, a new definition region of support (ROS), k-i-back-extended region of support (KIBROS), is proposed to establish the extended window, which including the data of the previous sampling times in the same batch, the data of the same sampling time in the historical batches, the data of the previous sampling times in the historical batches and the data of the later sampling times in the historical batches. According to these regions of support, extended windows are established, and different models are proposed based on the extended windows for batch processes quality prediction. Further, using a typical batch process as an example, the injection molding process, the proposed quality prediction method is experimentally verified, proving that the proposed methods have higher prediction accuracy than the traditional method and the prediction stability is also improved.

In the dynamic landscape of the telecommunications industry, understanding and mitigating customer churn is paramount for maintaining competitive advantage and sustaining revenue streams. This comprehensive literature review delves into the intricacies of customer churn prediction, a crucial aspect in fortifying the bond between telecom businesses and their customers. The review methodically analyzes 11 articles published between 2000 and March 2024, spotlighting the strategic role of Customer Relationship Management and the prevalence of high churn rates that necessitate a shift from customer acquisition to retention strategies. Furthermore, the review navigates through the challenges inherent in churn prediction, including the complexities of managing large, imbalanced, and noisy datasets and the intricacies involved in model selection and optimization. Despite these challenges, the paper highlights the superior capability of machine learning techniques in handling complex datasets to provide accurate predictions, albeit acknowledging their practical complexities. The main aim of the study is to provide an overview, serving as a knowledge base for researchers interested in machine learning techniques within the realm of telecommunications.

Landslides are serious geological hazards that become a disaster worldwide, causing a large number of casualties and economic losses every year. There are many factors affecting landslide susceptibility, such as rainfall, soil and slope. Each of them has an important role in the process of slope losing stability. In this paper, the effects of rainfall intensity, rainfall pattern, slope gradient and soil type on landslide susceptibility are studied. In the process of rainfall-induced landslide, the relevant physical quantities of soil changes continuously. Their values and processes are closely related to the time of landslide occurrence. Hence, the variation of soil volumetric water content, matrix suction, pore water pressure and total stress throughout the rainfall are measured. As the results, soil type, slope gradient and rainfall intensity have a large influence on landslide susceptibility. The occurrence of landslides has a prerequisite that the slope is greater than or equal to 15°. The rainfall intensity needs to be not less than 80 mm/h. The difference of rainfall pattern also affects the landslide susceptibility. The rainfall pattern with rainfall intensity peak at the later stage is more likely to induce landslide. Coarser soils with gravels are prone to landslides when other conditions are the same. Steeper slopes, stronger rainfall, and coarser soils can all increase the amount of sediment yield.

By repeated unloading and loading of the excavation dynamic and static loads, repeated train dynamic and static loads of multi-factors, the underpass tunnel, cross tunnel engineering influence area rock layer, the existing tunnel structure of the three constitutes a multifaceted structure, multi-factor interaction system. Existing tunnels into the prediction theory model of the new tunnel excavation process of dynamic and static loads, dynamic and static loads of existing tunnels are mostly analyzed individually, the results of synergistic analysis needs to be improved. Based on the theory of the current layer method, the paper comprehensively considers the stiffness of the existing tunnel, the stiffness of the new tunnel, the excavation method load and the existing tunnel load, coupled with Peck's empirical formula, the theoretical model of deformation prediction for excavation of a two-lane highway tunnel under the tunnel through the existing railroad is proposed, and verified and optimized by numerical calculations and monitoring data, which proves the applicability and reliability of the theoretical model in the similar strata and the project promotion.

Ombrian curves, i.e. curves linking rainfall intensity to return period and time-scale, are well-established engineering tools, crucial to the design against storm waters and floods. Whereas at-site construction of such curves is considered a standard hydrological task, it is a rather challenging one when large regions are of interest. Regional modelling of ombrian curves is particularly complex due to the need to account for spatial dependence together with the increased variability of rainfall extremes in space. We develop a framework for the parsimonious modelling of the extreme rainfall properties at any point in a given area. This is achieved by assuming a common ombrian model structure except for a spatially varying scale parameter which is itself modelled by a spatial smoothing model for the 24 h average rainfall maxima that employs elevation as an additional explanatory variable. The fitting is performed on the pooled all-stations data using an advanced estimation procedure (K-moments) that allows both for reliable high-order moment estimation and simultaneous handling of space-dependence bias. The methodology is applied in the Thessaly region, a 13 700 km2 water district of Greece characterized by varying topography and hydrometeorological properties.

This study proposes a novel hybrid machine learning approach for modeling of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. The proposed approach is a combination of an instance-based learning algorithm (k-NN) and Rotation Forest (RF), state of the art machine techniques that have seldom explored for landslide modeling. The Lang Son city area (Vietnam) is selected as a case study. For this purpose, a spatial database for the study area was constructed, and then, was used to build and evaluate the hybrid model. Performance of the model was assessed using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), area under the ROC curve (AUC), success rate and prediction rate, and several statistical evaluation metrics. The results showed that the model has high performance with both the training data (AUC = 0.948) and the validation data (AUC = 0.848). The results were compared with those obtained from soft computing techniques i.e. Random Forest, J48 Decision Trees, and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks. Overall, the performance of the proposed model is better than those obtained from the above methods. Therefore, the proposed model is a promising tool for landslide modeling. The research result can be highly useful for land use planning and management in landslide prone areas.

The medium-voltage DC (MVDC) technology has gained increasing interests in recent years. Power electronics devices dominate those grids. Accurate simulation of such a grid, with detailed models of switching semiconductors, can quickly became very time-consuming, according to the number of connected devices to be simulated. A simulation approach based on interactions on a continuous time model can be very interesting, especially for developing a system level control model of such a modern MVDC distribution grid. Aim of this paper is to present all the steps required for obtaining a continuous time modelling of a +/- 10 kV MVDC grid case study, including Solid State Transformer (SST) and Modular Multilevel Converter (MMC) based Active Front End (AFE). Additional aim of this paper is to supply an educational content about the use of the continuous time simulation approach, thanks to a detailed description of the various devices modelled into the presented MVDC grid. The results of a certain number of simulation scenarios are eventually presented.

This paper describes a system that is used to gather data from Smart Home sensors measuring energy consumption, analyze and predict future consumption by using machine learning algorithm for prediction. It focuses on the architecture of the system as well as the need for such system to exist in practice – why the consumption should be measured at all and how that measurement can be put to good use for achieving energy efficiency.

The Mara River basin (MRB) has a world-famous ecosystem, but the vegetation has been damaged due to economic development in recent years, and there is little known about the area that will experience severe vegetation damage in the future. Based on the vegetation vulnerability system, principal component analysis, and three CMIP6 scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), vegetation vulnerability was calculated in the base period (2010-2019), near-term period (2020-2059) and long-term period (2060-2099) in the MRB. The spatial cluster of vegetation vulnerability was revealed by spatial correlation analysis, and the transition of vegetation vulnerability of different periods was analyzed by stochastic matrix. The results showed that in all periods, the vulnerability showed a high-high cluster in the east, and a low-low cluster midstream and downstream. From the stochastic matrix, the area of high vulnerability increased the least under the SSP1-2.6, while it increased the most under the SSP5-8.5. The vegetation vulnerability upstream increased the most from the base period to the near-term period and long-term period in the MRB. By comparing the vegetation vulnerability under different scenarios, and pointing out the areas with the highest vulnerability increase, this study can better provide comprehensive decision-making for vegetation protection in the MRB.

This paper explores the capability of various machine learning algorithms, including Random Forests and advanced gradient boosting techniques such as XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost, to predict customer churn in the telecommunications sector. For this analysis, a dataset available to the public was employed. The performance of these algorithms was assessed using recognized metrics, including Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-score, and the Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under Curve (ROC AUC). These metrics were evaluated at different phases: subsequent to data preprocessing and feature selection; following the application of SMOTE and ADASYN sampling methods; and after conducting hyperparameter tuning on the data that had been adjusted by SMOTE and ADASYN. The outcomes underscore the notable efficiency of upsampling techniques such as SMOTE and ADASYN in addressing the imbalance inherent in customer churn prediction. Notably, the application of random grid search for hyperparameter optimization did not significantly alter the results, which remained comparatively unchanged. The algorithms' performance post- ADASYN application marginally surpassed that observed after SMOTE application. Remarkably, LightGBM achieved an exceptional F1-score of 89% and an ROC AUC of 95% subsequent to the ADASYN sampling technique. This underlines the effectiveness of advanced boosting algorithms and upsampling methods like SMOTE and ADASYN in navigating the complexities of imbalanced datasets and intricate feature interdependencies.

Although the water absorption feature (WAF) at 970 nm is not very well-defined, it may be used alongside other indices to estimate the canopy water content. The individual performance of a number of existing vegetation water content (VWC) indices against the WAF is assessed using linear regression model. We developed a new Combined Vegetation Water Index (CVWI) by merging indices to boost the weak absorption feature. CVWI showed a promise in assessing the vegetation water status derived from the 970 nm absorption wavelength. CVWI was able to differentiate two groups of dataset when regressed against the absorption feature. CVWI could be seen as an easy and robust method for vegetation water content studies using hyperspectral field data.

Accurate diagnosis for the 400 million people with rare diseases is critical for healthcare decisions, prognosis, understanding disease mechanisms, and identification of treatments. Despite advances in genome sequencing, barriers such as high interpretation costs, diagnostic expertise, throughput associated delays, and uncertain variant classifications persist, with demand exceeding capacity. Many variant classification methods focus narrowly on specific consequences, leading to the use of complex integrative pipelines that often overlook transcript variability and lack prediction transparency. To overcome these limitations, we introduce DITTO. This transparent, transcript-aware machine-learning method demonstrates superior overall performance in accuracy, recall, and precision when compared to existing tools. DITTO is publicly available at https://github.com/uab-cgds-worthey/DITTO

The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is one of the most endangered species of land mammals and has significant academic research value worldwide. The evaluation of hematological parameters in giant pandas is important for assessing the physiological status of animals. This study collected blood samples from 12 healthy giant pandas from September 2018 to August 2020 under non-anesthetic conditions. The samples were then analyzed for basic blood indices and blood rheology, and normal values for hematological parameters and blood rheology under non-anesthetic conditions in giant pandas in Beijing area were obtained. The study confirmed the influence of age and season on hematological and biochemical parameters in captive giant pandas: hematological morphology, blood rheology, and serum enzymes showed seasonal variations, while age affected the changes in serum enzymes, serum protein content, and serum metabolite content. There are significant differences in blood indicators among different age groups of giant pandas, indicating variations in the overall metabolic processes and differences among pandas of different age groups. Seasonal variations showed a regulatory effect on blood rheology parameters and a negative effect on blood viscosity. Further research should be conducted to investigate whether factors such as season and climate cause environmental stress in captive giant pandas. The results obtained in this study aim to better protect the stability of the giant panda population and provide references for the appropriate feeding and medical care of captive giant pandas.

Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) is a global agricultural pest that poses a threat to crop production, characterized by its refractory polyphagous nature that makes it difficult to control and may lead to damage to woody plants. However, research on its adaptability to woody plants remains limited. This study compares the feeding adaptations (survival rate, pupation time, pupation rate, weight, length, and feeding volume), protective enzyme activities, and feeding preferences of S. frugiperda on leaves of six economically significant tree species (Areca catechu, Aquilaria sinensis, Cocos nucifera, Camellia oleifera, Dalbergia odorifera and Hevea brasiliensis) and maize as a control treatment. The results indicate that A. sinensis as the most vulnerable trees in high risk, H. brasiliensis and C. nucifera presented varying degrees of susceptibility, A. catechu, C. oleifera, and D. odorifera were unsuitability for S. frugiperda. In conclusion, this report extensively explores the feeding effects of S. frugiperda on six economically important tree species, and provides insights into the feeding preferences on these plants, thereby informing the potential threat posed by S. frugiperda to economically vital trees.

Rainfall variability has resulted in extreme events like devastating floods and droughts which is the main cause of human vulnerability to precipitation in West Africa. Attempts have been made by previous studies to understand rainfall variability over Ghana but these have mostly focused on the major rainy season of April-July, leaving a gap in our understanding of the variability in the September-November season which is a very important aspect of the Ghanaian climate system. The current study seeks to close this knowledge gap by employing statistical tools to quantify variabilities in rainfall amounts, rain days, and extreme precipitation indices in the minor rainfall season over Ghana. We find extremely high variability in rainfall with a Coefficient of variation (CV) between 25.3% and 70.8%, and moderate to high variability in rain days (CV=14.0% - 48.8%). Rainfall amount was found to be higher over the middle sector (262.7 mm – 400.2 mm) but lowest over the east coast (125.2 mm – 181.8 mm). Analysis of the second rainfall season using the Mankandell Test presents a non-significant trend of rainfall amount and extreme indices (R10, R20, R99p, and R99p) for many places in southern Ghana. Rainfall Anomaly Indices show that the middle sector recorded above normal precipitation which is the opposite for areas in the transition zone. The result of this work provides a good understanding of rainfall in the minor rainfall season and may be used for planning purposes.

The paper analyses the national DK-model Hydrological Information and Prediction (HIP) system and HIP portal viewed as a ‘Digital Twin’ and how the introduction of real-time dynamic updating of the DK-model HIP simulations can give room for plug-in sub-models with real-time boundary conditions made available from a HIP portal. The possible feedback to a national real-time risk knowledge base during extreme events (flooding and drought) is also discussed. Under climate change conditions, Denmark is likely to experience more rain in winter, more evapotranspiration in summer, intensified cloudbursts, drought, and sea level rise. These challenges have been addressed as part of the Joint Governmental Digitalization Strategy 2016-2020 for better use and sharing of public data about the terrain, water, and climate to support climate adaptation, water management, and disaster risk reduction. This initiative included the development of a new web-based data portal (HIP portal) developed by the Danish Agency for Data Supply and Infrastructure (SDFI). GEUS delivered 5 terra-byte of hydrological model data to the portal with robust calibration methods and hybrid Machine Learning (ML) being key parts of the deliverables. The paper discusses the challenges and potentials of further developing the HIP Digital Twin with ‘plug-in Digital Twins’ for local river basins including feedback to the national level.

Background and Objectives: ARNE score was developed for the prediction of difficult airway for both general and ENT surgery with a universal cut-off value. We tested the accuracy of this score in the case of laryngeal surgery and provided an insight of its combination with flexible laryngoscopy. Materials and Methods: This prospective pilot clinical study included 100 patients who were being scheduled for microscopic laryngeal surgery. We have calculated ARNE score for every patient and flexible laryngoscopy was provided preoperative. Difficult intubation was assessed according to intubation difficulty score (IDS). Results: A total of 33% patients had difficult intubation according to IDS. ARNE score showed to be accurate for prediction of difficult intubation in laryngology with P<0.0001 and AUC 0.784. Flexible laryngoscopy showed to be an independent parameter with P<0.0001 and AUC 0.766. We have defined a new cut-off value of 15.50 for laryngology, according to AUC curve. After the patients were divided in two groups, according to the new cut-off value and provided cut-off value, AUC improved to 0.707 from 0.619 respectively. Flexible laryngoscopy improved the prediction model of ARNE score to AUC 0.882 and of new cut-off value to AUC 0.833. Conclusions: It is recommended to use flexible laryngoscopy together with ARNE score in difficult airway prediction in patients with laryngeal pathology. Also, universally recommended cut-off value of 11 can not be effectively used in laryngology and a new cut-off value of 15.50 is recommended.

Accurate estimates of daily rainfall are essential for understanding and modeling the physical processes involved in the interaction between the land surface and the atmosphere. In this study, daily satellite soil moisture observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) generated by implementing the standard NASA- algorithm are employed for estimating rainfall, firstly, through the use of recently developed approach, SM2RAIN (Brocca et al., 2013) and, secondly, the nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) neural modelling at five climate stations in the Karkheh river basin (KRB), located in southwest Iran. In the SM2RAIN method, the period 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2005 is used for the calibration of algorithm and the remaining 9 months from 1 January 2006 to 30 September 2006 is used for the validation of the rainfall estimates. In the NARX model, the full study period is split into a training (1 January 2003 to 31 September 2005) and a testing (1 September 2005 to 30 September 2006) stage. For the prediction of the rainfall as the desired target (output), relative soil moisture changes from AMSR-E and measured air temperature time series are chosen as exogenous (external) inputs in NARX. The quality of the estimated rainfall data is evaluated by comparing it with observed rainfall data at the five rain gauges in terms of the correlation coefficient R, the RMSE and the statistical bias. For the SM2RAIN method, R ranges between 0.44 and 0.9 for all stations, whereas for the NARX- model the values are generally slightly lower. Moreover, the values of the bias for each station indicate that although SM2RAIN is likely to underestimate large rainfall intensities, due to the known effect of soil moisture saturation, its biases are somewhat lower than those of NARX. In conclusion, the results of the present study show that with the use of AMSR-E soil moisture products in the physically based SM2RAIN- algorithm as well as in the NARX neural network, rainfall for poorly gauged regions can be fairly predicted.

The aim of the research was to study the influence of the calving season in the conditions of the upcoming climate changes on the productive traits of dairy cows in Bulgaria. The study was conducted in a cattle farm with a capacity of 500 dairy cows, loose-housed in open free stall barn (shed type). In the research 286 lactations of 199 Holstein cows from the studied farm were included. The cows with the highest average milk yield for lactation calved in the spring - 8522.2 kg, and the cows with the lowest milk yield calved in the summer - 8082.7 kg. Cows calved in the spring had the highest maximum daily milk yield (lactation peak) - 38 kg, and the lowest in the summer - 35.7 kg. Regarding the composition indicators of milk, fat and protein content, no significant effect of the calving season was found, but a tendency for the lowest values for the percentage of fat in milk was reported for cows calved in the summer - 3.68%, and the most - high for those calved in the spring - 3.71%. Regarding the percentage of protein in the milk, the lowest values were for cows that calved in autumn - 3.19%, and the highest for cows that calved in summer - 3.27%.

The study focused on two climatic variables i.e. precipitation and stream flow for analysing change in trend of rainfall for the River Ssezibwa Catchment area and stream flow of River Ssezibwa. This Catchment is found in the districts of Mukono and Buikwe in Uganda. In this area agriculture is majorly dependent on rainfall and irrigation on a small scale. However, rainfall occurrence has become unpredictable over the past few years as result of the changes in patterns of weather. This has caused severe effects on the agricultural cropping system as well as caused negative effects on the natural water resources. Stream flow data of 57 years (1960 – 2017) and rainfall data for 35 years (1982 – 2017) on a daily basis was analysed to find out the trend and detect change point. Trend analysis was done by using the non-parametric analysis while the change point detection was carried out by using the Pettit test (1979).Magnitude of trend for the time series data was carried out using Sen’s Slope estimator and Mann – Kendall test was done to determine the trend. Results from the statistical analysis highlighted that; for stream flow the trend was generally positive and change point detected to be in the year 2000 while for rainfall data analysis indicated that the trend was predominantly negative and change point was in the year 1998.

With the development of electricity spot markets, accurate electricity load forecasting enables power generation companies to supply the right amount of electricity, Significantly avoid power waste. As a result, time series forecasting in the field of power can bring significant benefits. Previously, the Informer model successfully introduced the Transformer into long time series forecasting(LTSF) by proposing the ProbSparse self-attention mechanism, which solved the inherent problem of high memory complexity in self-attention. Recent research has further demonstrated the potential of the self-attention for mining complex dependencies. However, the limited amount of historical data has become one of the main challenges in applying deep learning techniques to power LSTF tasks. Previous reserches often add a large number of time covariates to provide more information. In this paper, to address this issue, (i) we design a simple but effective Season-aware Block to enhance the model’s ability to mine artificial prior information in temporal covariates; (ii) we conduct experiments using the provincial power data of Zhejiang Province, China, from 2019 to 2022, and our model outperforms other models, achieving a 19 percent MSE relative improvement; (iii) we conduct ablation experiments to assess the efficacy of the Season-aware Block in extracting temporal periodic features. Furthermore, we elucidate the underlying reasons for the effectiveness of both the self-attention mechanism and the Season-aware Block through visualization experiments.

Objective: To determine the effect of birth season climate on adult total serum IgE (TSIgE) levels. Study design: The study is a retrospective chart review with the following inclusion criteria: TSIgE measurement, age ≥16, and northeastern Tennessee birthplace. Main outcome measures include TSIgE levels, birth season climatic conditions, and regional pollen-producing plant and pollen counts. Results: The records of 1,274 women (mean age 40.8 ± 17.5, age range 16-96) and 762 men (mean age 38.1 ± 17, age range 16-82) seen in our Allergy Clinic were reviewed. Persons born in the spring and summer, the seasons with the highest pollen counts and the most favorable climatic conditions for plant growth, had nearly twice the odds of having TSIgE levels >1σ above the mean of the study group when compared to those born in the fall or winter (odds ratio (OR) 1.75, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96-3.17 and OR 1.93, 95% CI 1.04-3.57, respectively); odds were highest for those born in March (OR 2.55, 95% CI 1.37-4.74) and July (OR 2.38, 95% CI 1.25-4.51) and lowest for those born in November (OR 0.11, 95% CI 0.0068-1.79). When averaged over the 95-years of study and five 30-year climate cycles TSIgE levels increased linearly as the seasons progressed from fall to summer (r²= 0.9475, P=0.0266). Of the climatic factors, TSIgE levels correlated most strongly with levels of precipitation (r²= 0.9145, P=0.0437). Conclusion: Climatic conditions that increase birth season exposure to environmental allergens may have a life-long effect on TSIgE production.

The intense motion of a ship can greatly impacts the comfort of crew members and the safety of the vessel. Therefore, accurately estimating and predicting ship attitudes has become an important issue. This paper introduces the latest development in functional deep learning model called DeepOnet. It takes wave height as input and ship motion as output, using a cause-to-result prediction approach. The modeling data used in this study is sourced from publicly available experimental data from the Iowa Institute of Hydraulic Research. Firstly, parameters system tuning was conducted for the neural network's hyperparameters to determine the appropriate combination of parameters. Secondly, the DeepOnet model for wave height and multi-degree-of-freedom motion was established, and the influence of increasing time steps on prediction accuracy was examined. Finally, a comparison was made between the DeepOnet model and the classical time series model LSTM. It was found that the DeepOnet model had a 10-fold improvement in accuracy for roll and heave attitudes. Moreover, as the forecast duration increased, the advantage of DeepOnet showed a trend of strengthening. As a functional prediction model, DeepOnet provides a new promising tool for very short-term prediction of ship motion.

Taiwan developing offshore wind power to promote green energy and self-electricity production. In this study, a Light Detection and Ranging (Lidar) was set up at Chang-Hua development zone one on the sea and 10km away from the seashore. At Lidar location, WRF (3.33km & 2km grid lengths) model and WAsP were used to simulate the wind speed at various elevations. Three days mean wind speed of simulated results were compared with Lidar data. From the four wind data sets, developed five different comparisons to find an error% and R-Squared values. Comparison between WAsP and Floating Lidar was shown good consistency. Lukang meteorological station 10 years wind observations at 5m height were used for wind farm energy predictions. The yearly variation of energy predictions of traditional and TGC wind farm layouts are compared under purely neutral and stable condition. The one-year cycle average surface heat flux over the Taiwan Strait is negative (-72.5 (W/m2) and 157.13 STD), which represents stable condition. At stable condition TGC (92.39%) and 600(92.44%), wind farms were shown higher efficiency. The Fuhai met mast wind data was used to estimate roughness length and power law exponent. The average roughness lengths are very small and unstable atmosphere.

Philippines as an archipelago and tropical country, which is situated near the Pacific ocean, faces uncertain rainfall intensities. This makes environmental, agricultural and economic systems affected by precipitation difficult to manage. Time series analysis of Philippine rainfall pattern has been previously done, but there is no study investigating its probability distribution. Modeling the Philippine rainfall using probability distributions is essential, especially in managing risks and designing insurance products. Here, daily and cumulative rainfall data (January 1961 - August 2016) from 28 PAGASA weather stations are fitted to probability distributions. Moreover, the fitted distributions are examined for invariance under subsets of the rainfall data set. We observe that the Gamma distribution is a suitable fit for the daily up to the ten-day cumulative rainfall data. Our results can be used in agriculture, especially in forecasting claims in weather index-based insurance.

An observational cohort study of patients diagnosed with endometrial cancer (EC) stage IA G1, or atypical endometrial hyperplasia (AHE), undergoing organ-preserving treatment, was conducted. Objective of the study: to determine CDO1, PITX2, and CDH13 gene methylation levels in early endometrial cancer and atypical hyperplasia specimens obtained before organ-preserving treatment in the patients with adequate response and with insufficient response to hormonal treatment. Materials and methods: 41 endometrial specimens obtained during diagnostic uterine curettage in women with EC (n=28) and AEH (n=13), willing to preserve reproductive function, were studied; 18 specimens of endometrial cancer IA stage G1 from peri- and early postmenopausal women (comparison group) were included in the study. The control group included 18 endometrial specimens from healthy women obtained by diagnostic curettage for missed abortion and/or intrauterine adhesions. Methylation levels were analyzed using the modified MS-HRM method. Results: All 13 women with AEH had complete response (CR) to medical treatment. In the group undergoing organ-preserving treatment for uterine cancer IA stage G1 (n=28), 14 patients had complete response (EC CR group) and 14 had not (non-CR). It was found that all groups had statistically significant differences in CDO1 gene methylation levels with the control group (p<0.001) except for the EC CR group (p=0.21). The p-value of difference between EC CR and EC non-CR groups was <0.001. The differences in PITX2 gene methylation levels between the control and study groups were also significantly different (p<0.001), except for AEH group (p=0.21). For the difference between EC CR and EC non-CR groups, the p-value was 0.43. For CDH13 gene methylation levels, statistically significant differences were found between the control and EC non-CR groups (p<0.001), and the control and EC comparison groups (p=0.005). When comparing the EC CR group with EC non-CR group, the p-value for this gene was <0.001. Simultaneous assessment of CDO1 and CDH13 genes methylation allowed to accurately distinguish between EC CR and EC non-CR groups (AUC=0.96). Conclusion: Assessment of CDO1 and CDH13 gene methylation in endometrial specimens from patients with endometrial cancer (IA stage G1), planned for medical treatment, can predict the treatment outcome.

Flood records of the Kunmalik River in Chinese Tien Shan mountains have showed that glacier- dammed lake outburst floods (GLOF) had occurred almost every year since 1956 from the glaci-er-dammed Lake Merzbacher. However, GLOF in cold season is seldomly studied. The defense and management of the flood need further observation and study. The maximum peak discharge of 825 m3/s occurred on 5th December 1996 with the maximum flood volume of 2.875×108 m3, which was 18 times larger than that of the mean daily discharge in winter over the past six decades. The drainage of the Merzbacher lake is not a mechanical breaking up of the glacier dam, but the release of pressurized water along a subglacial tunnel triggered by quickly surge of the Northern Glacier, the subglacial tunnels are enlarged by both ice melting and frictional heat in the flooding water and heat under the glaciated dam and the lake in winter. There is no correlation between the GLOF size and air temperature of cold season. The floods in cold season have become bigger since 1996 than that before, and the flood duration has been extended from winter to spring. Once the cold GLOF starts, its discharge can be forecasted day by day to extrapolate the monitoring hydrograph as a linear curve.

Adequate serum vitamin D and iron levels are thought to positively influence physical training adaptations and mood. The purpose of this prospective, observational, study was to investigate relationships between serum 25-OH vitamin D and serum ferritin levels with body composition and athlete burnout symptoms. Seventy-three collegiate athletes (49 female) from 7 indoor and outdoor sports were tested pre-season and post-season for: nutrient biomarkers (serum 25-OH vitamin D and serum ferritin) via venipuncture; body composition (total lean mass, bone mineral densi-ty/BMD, and % body fat) via dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans; and athlete burnout symptoms (post-season) via the athlete burnout questionnaire (ABQ). When male and female co-horts were combined, significant relationships were noted between pre-season serum 25-OH vit-amin D versus the change (∆: post-season minus pre-season) in both BMD (r=-0.34;p=0.0003) and % body fat (r=-0.28;p=0.015). Serum ferritin ∆ was significantly associated with lean mass ∆ (r=-0.34;p=0.003). For burnout symptoms, serum 25-OH vitamin D ∆ significantly explained 20.6% of the variance for devaluation of sport in the male cohort only. Across time, serum 25-OH vitamin D levels increased while serum ferritin levels decreased, non-significantly, in both males and fe-males. Relationships between nutrient biomarkers and body composition were opposite of physio-logical expectations.

With the use of linear regression modeling, this study sought to forecast and analyze rainfall patterns in Ethiopia. The dataset included historical rainfall data as well as pertinent independent variables. The R-squared score and mean squared error (MSE) were used to assess the effectiveness of the linear regression model. The results showed that the model's ability to forecast and analyze rainfall patterns was not very good. Only around 5.3% of the variance in rainfall could be explained by the chosen independent variables, according to the R-squared score of 0.053. This low number indicated that there was little correlation between the selected variables and rainfall, and that a sizable percentage of the variation in the dependent variable was not captured by the model. The model's accuracy in forecasting rainfall was shown to be quite low by the MSE error, with significant squared discrepancies between the expected and actual amounts. These results support the notion that the linear regression model as it is now designed is not appropriate for studying or forecasting Ethiopia's rainfall patterns. Alternative modeling approaches, the inclusion of other pertinent factors, and the assurance of the availability of high-quality data that faithfully captures the intricate dynamics of rainfall in the area all require more investigation.

The spatiotemporal variations of rainfall erosivity in the Hengduan Mountains, charac-terized by rugged terrain and high potential soil erosion risks, over the past 30 years was exam-ined. The changing trends of rainfall erosivity for 2025-2040 was also be investigated under the comprehensive scenario of moderate socio-economic development (SSP2-4.5) combined with me-dium-low radiative forcing, using four global climate models (GCMs) based on CMIP6. The results indicated that: (1) The annual distribution of rainfall erosivity in the Hengduan Mountains exhib-ited significant seasonal variations, with the order of erosivity being summer > autumn > spring > winter on a seasonal scale. (2) Over the past 30 years, there has been a slight decrease in annual precipitation and a slight increase in rainfall erosivity, with periodic extreme values occurring every 6-8 years. (3) Rainfall erosivity showed a decreasing gradient from southeast to northwest in terms of spatial distribution. There was a significant positive correlation between rainfall ero-sivity and precipitation, while a significant negative correlation existed with elevation in the ver-tical direction. Moreover, there was an increasing trend of rainfall erosivity in the northeastern part of the Hengduan Mountains and a decreasing trend in the southern region. (4) Under the joint driving forces of increased precipitation and erosive rainfall events, rainfall erosivity in the future is expected to significantly increase, posing a more severe risk of soil erosion in the Heng-duan Mountains.

Vehicle safety promises to be one of the Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) biggest benefits. Higher levels of automation remove the human driver from the chain of events that can lead to a crash. Sensors play an influential role in vehicle driving as well as in ADAS by helping the driver to watch the vehicle’s surroundings for safe driving. Thus, the driving load is drastically reduced from steering as well as accelerating and braking for long-term driving. The baseline for the development of future intelligent vehicles relies even more on the fusion of data from surrounding sensors such as Camera, Lidar and Radar. These sensors not only need to perceive in clear weather but also need to detect accurately adverse weather and illumination conditions. Otherwise, a small error could have an incalculable impact on ADAS. As most of the current study is based on indoor or static testing. In order to solve this problem, this paper designs a series of dynamic test cases with the help of outdoor rain and intelligent lightning simulation facilities to make the sensor application scenarios more realistic. As a result, the effect of rainfall and illumination on sensor perception performance is investigated. As speculated, the performance of all automotive sensors is degraded by adverse environmental factors, but their behaviour is not identical. Future work on sensor model development and sensor information fusion should therefore take this into account.

The aim of this study was to examine the seasonal variations in relevant indices of physical performance in female soccer players. Twenty-seven female soccer players were assessed at week 2 of the season (pre-season, PS), week 7 (end of pre-season, EP), week 24 (half-season, HS), and week 38 (end of season, ES). Testing sessions consisted of: 1) vertical countermovement jump (CMJ); 2) 20-m running sprint (T20); 3) 25-m side-step cutting maneuver test (V-CUT); and 4) progressive loading test in the full-squat exercise (V1-LOAD). Participants followed their normal soccer training, which consisted of three weekly training sessions and an official match, without any type of intervention. No significant time effects were observed for CMJ height (P = 0.29) and T20 (P = 0.11) along the season. Significant time effects were found for V-CUT (P = 0.004) and V1-LOAD (P = 0.001). V-CUT performance significantly improved from HS to ES (P = 0.001). Significant increases were observed for V1-LOAD throughout the season: PS-HS (P = 0.009), PS-ES (P < 0.001); EP-ES (P < 0.001); HS-ES (P = 0.009). In conclusion, female adapted soccer training may be effective for increasing muscle strength and change of direction ability. The high volume of endurance-type training typically accumulated throughout the season may prevent any sprint and jump improvements.

We have studied the stochastic processes A and B concerning fade durations due to rain, by simulating attenuation time series A(t) (dB) in the zenith paths of GeoSurf satellite constellations, at sites located in different climatic regions, with the Synthetic Storm Technique. Process B gives the statistics of outages (occurrences), process A gives the statistics of outage duration (fraction of time), for the same rain attenuation threshold A(t)>S. The two processes are not independent, therefore, we have studied the relationship between their probabilities and defined a uniformity index 0<U(S)≤1. U(S) is useful for comparing real cases – fade durations fragmented in many different intervals, with changing S and site – and the limiting case of all fades lasting the same time. As S increases, U(S) increases, approaching 1 at very large thresholds. These results should guide the designers of future GeoSurf satellite constellations to consider the impact of A(t) on the diverse communications services. Process B (occurrences) impacts on non–real time services, such as data delivery, more disturbed by the number of outages rather than by their duration. Process A (fraction of time) impacts on real–time services such as television, video conference etc., more disturbed by the duration of the outage.

Precipitation during 2001-2016 over the northern and central part of Tuscany was studied in order to characterize the rainfall regime. The dataset consisted of hourly cumulative rainfall series recorded by a network of 801 rain gauges. The territory was divided into 30x30 km square areas, the annual, seasonal and daily Average Cumulative Rainfall (ACR) in all areas was estimated along with its uncertainty. The trend analysis of ACR time series was performed by means of the Mann-Kendall test. Four climatic zones were identified: the north-western was the rainiest, followed by the north-eastern, north-central and south-central. An overall increase in precipitation was identified, more intense in the north-west, and determined mostly by the increase in winter precipitation. On the entire territory, the ACR, number of rainy days, mean precipitation intensity and sum of daily ACR in four intensity groups were evaluated at annual and seasonal scale. The main result was a magnitude of the ACR trend evaluated as 35 mm/year, due mainly to an increase in light and extreme precipitations. This result is in contrast with the decreasing rainfall detected in the past decades.

High-throughput screening technologies continues to produce large amounts of multiomics data from different populations and cell types for various diseases, such as cancer. However, analysis of such data encounters difficulties due to cancer heterogeneity, further exacerbated by human biological complexity and genomic variability. There is a need to redefine the drug discovery development pipeline, bringing an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-powered informational view that integrates relevant biological information and explores new ways to develop effective anticancer approaches. Here, we show SynPred, an interdisciplinary approach that leverages specifically designed ensembles of AI-algorithms, links omics and biophysical traits to predict synergistic anticancer drug synergy. SynPred exhibits state-of-the-art performance metrics: accuracy – 0.85, precision – 0.77, recall – 0.75, AUROC – 0.82, and F1-score - 0.76 in an independent test set. Moreover, data interpretability was achieved by deploying the most current and robust feature importance approaches. A simple web-based application available online at http://www.moreiralab.com/resources/synpred/ was constructed to predict synergistic anticancer drug combinations requiring only the upload of the two drug SMILES to be tested, allowing easy access by non-expert researchers.

Hazelnut (Corylus avellana L.) is of great agroeconomic importance, prized for its nutritional value and antioxidant properties. Its yield and quality may differ due to factors such as season (S), locality (L) and cultivar (C). Our objective was to determine the dynamics of morphological features and antioxidant properties in nuts of Barcelona and Tonda di Giffoni (TDG) cultivars planted at two localities (Cunco and Perquenco) during three productive seasons (S1, S2 and S3). Barcelona grown in Perquenco in S1 and S3 (less precipitation, more solar radiation), performed better than in Cunco with respect to most morphological nut, kernel and shell features, and the same parameters generally had the same trends for TDG in S2 and S3. Among the seasons at the same localities, the differences between the predominant condition defects for both cultivars were in the decreasing order wrinkled/deformed kernels, double kernels, blank and mold ker-nels, with about 75% of hazelnuts without defect. In both cultivars, the shell had higher antioxi-dant properties that increased in S1 and S3 at both localities, and were consistently higher than in the kernels. Lipid peroxidation was higher in the kernel than shell in both cultivars and local-ities for S1 and S3. The results of this study suggest that the different hazelnut cultivar features including physical and chemical components depend on season and locality, which offers im-portant clues for all those interested in the hazelnut industry.

Climate warming profoundly affect vegetative growth, flowering phenology and sexual reproduction of plants, therefore the ornamental value of wild flowers. Despite this, the extent and mechanism of the impact remain unclear. Here, we conducted warming experiment for two growing seasons (1.89 ℃ in 2017 and 2.37 ℃ in 2018 increases) with infrared heaters to examine the effects of warming on ornamental value of wild flower I. oxyanthera, endemic to China, in Mount Emei. We fitted generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) and generalized linear model (GLM) to examine how warming affected plant morphology and floral traits. We evaluated comprehensive ornamental value based on plant morphology and flowering characteristics using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and disentangled the impact of the two traits on ornamental value using principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) under the ambient and warming treatments. Warming decreased significantly plant height and crown width, while increased branch number and single leaf area. Warming also decreased vexillum length, corolla tube length, nectar spur length and pedicel length. In addition, warming shortened flowering duration per plant and reduced flower number, while there was no significant effect on flower longevity, flower color at full-bloom stage between the control and warming treatment. Therefore, comprehensive ornamental value under warming was lower than that under the control. Pedicel length, flower color, flower longevity and flowering duration per plant were the main factors of affecting comprehensive ornamental value. PLS-SEM showed that warming had an indirect negative effect on ornamental value via direct negative effects on flowering traits. Collectively, these results indicate that although promoting vegetative growth, short-term warming decreased significantly ornamental value of I. oxyanthera due to warming-caused smaller flowers and shorter flowering duration.

This study represents the first to examine the nutritional status of Moroccan football players. The aim of this research is to assess the energy and macronutrient intake of professional players from a club competing in the Moroccan professional league "Botola-Pro." Moreover, the study tries to find the potential correlation between nutritional intake and physical performance. A total of 27 professional players participated in a seven consecutive-day study, during a microcycle of the preseason period. The dietary intake was evaluated using the self-reported, complemented by a 24-hour recall. The InBody 120 bioelectrical impedance was employed for assessing body composition measurements, while the Yo-Yo test was utilized to evaluate physical performance; which estimates the maximal oxygen consumption level (VO2max). Among these players, their protein intake levels aligned with recommendations (1.6 to 2.2 g/kg of Body Mass). On the other hand, fat intake slightly surpassed the recommended values. However, carbohydrate intake was relatively subdued compared to recommendations of the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) in the pre-season training phase. A positive correlation was observed (P-value of < 0.001 and R=0.831) between carbohydrate intake and the measure of VO2max. This suggests that an increase in carbohydrate consumption is associated with enhanced performance, especially within the range of 6 to 8 g/kg BM per day. Conversely, a negative correlation was identified (P-value of < 0.01 and R= − 0.847) between the percentage of dietary fat and the VO2max. The findings of this study highlight areas of nutrition that could be enhanced among professional football players to optimize their performance. In effect, nutritional education is necessary for this category of athletes. Thus, an individual care approach is strongly recommended.

Intense rainfall events frequently occur in Brazil, often leading to rapid flooding. Despite their recurrence, there is a notable lack of sub-daily studies in the country. This research aims to assess patterns related to the structure and microphysics of clouds driving intense rainfall in Brazil, resulting in high accumulations within 1 hour. Employing a 40 mm/h threshold and validation criteria, 83 events were selected for study, observed by both single and dual-polarization radars. Contoured Frequency by Altitude Diagrams (CFADs) of reflectivity, Vertical Integrated Liquid (VIL), and Vertical Integrated Ice (VII) are employed to scrutinize the vertical cloud characteristics in each region. To address limitations arising from the absence of polarimetric coverage in some events, three case studies focusing on polarimetric variables are included. A fourth case study enhances the overall understanding of these events, emphasizing the underexplored nature of short-term intense rainfall studies in Brazil. Results reveal that the generating system significantly influences the rainfall pattern, especially in the Southern, Southeastern, and Central-Western regions. Regional CFADs unveil primary convective columns with 40-50 dBZ reflectivity, extending to approximately 6 km. The microphysical analysis highlights the rapid structural intensification, challenging the event predictability and the issuance of timely specific warnings.

This study proposes a new algorithm termed rain cell identification and tracking (RCIT) to identify and track rain cells from high resolution weather radar data. Previous algorithms have limitations when tracking non-consequent rain cells owing to their use of maximum correlation coefficient methods and their lack of an alternative way to handle the variation stages of rain cells during their life cycles. To address these deficiencies, various methods are implemented in the new algorithm. These include the particle image velocimetry (PIV) method for motion estimation and the rain cell matching rule to obtain the stage changes of rain cells. High resolution (5-min and 1-km) radar reflectivity data from three rainy days over the German federal state North Rhine Westphalia (NRW) are used to evaluate the proposed algorithm. The performance of the new algorithm is compared with a radar reflectivity map and verified by two object-oriented methods: structure–amplitude–location (SAL) and geometric index. The verification results suggest that the performance of the new algorithm is good. Application of the RCIT algorithm to the selected cases shows that the inner structure of rainfall events in the experimental region present extreme value distributions, with most rainfall events having a short duration with less intensity. The new algorithm can effectively capture the stage changes of rain cells during their life cycles. The proposed algorithm can serve as the basis for further hydro-meteorological applications such as spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall events and short-term flood forecasting.

Irrigation is one of key agricultural management practices of crop cultivation in the world. Irrigation practice is traceable on satellite image. Most irrigated area mapping methods were developed based on time series of NDVI or back scatter coefficient within the growing season. However, it found the winter irrigation out of growing season is also dominating in north China. This kind of irrigation aims to increase the soil moisture for coping with spring drought, and also reduce the wind erosion with the wet soil in the field surface as the strong wind happens in spring. This study developed a remote sensing-based classification approach to identify irrigated fields with Radom Forest algorithm out of growing season. The results showed that the mean of the highest accuracies of 7 RF models was 94.9% and the mean of the averaged accuracies of 7 RF models was 94.1%; the overall accuracy for all 7 outputs was in the range of 86.8-92.5%, Kappa in the range of 84.0-91.0% and F-1 score in the range of 82.1-90.1%. These results showed that the classification was acceptable and not over performed as the accuracies of all classified images were lower than the models. This study also found that irrigation started to apply in early November and irrigated fields were increased and suspended in December and January due to freeze. The newly irrigated fields were found again in March and April when the temperature goes up above zero degree. The area of irrigated fields in the study area were increasing over time with sizes of 98.6, 166.9, 208.0, 292.8, 538.0, 623.1, 653.8 km2 from December to April, accounting for 6.1%, 10.4%, 12.9%, 18.2%, 33.4%, 38.7%, and 40.6% of the total irrigatable land in the study area, respectively.

The mountains in northern Xinjiang of China were studied during the snowmelt season. Multi-source fusion live data Chinese Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS,0.05°× 0.05°,hourly data) were used as real data, and Central Meteorological Observatory guidance forecast (SCMOC,0.05°× 0.05 °,forecasting the following 10 days in 3 h intervals) was used as forecast data, both issued by the China Meteorological Administration. The dynamic linear regression and the average filter correction algorithms were selected to revise the original forecast products SCMOC.Based on conventional temperature forecast information,we designed four temperature rise prediction algorithms for essential factors affecting snowmelt.Temperature rise prediction algorithms included the daily maximum temperature algorithm, daily temperature rise range algorithm, snowmelt temperature algorithm, and daily snowmelt duration algorithm.Four temperature rise prediction algorithms values were calculated of each prediction product.Root-mean-square error algorithm and temperature prediction accuracy algorithm were used to compare and test each prediction algorithm value from the time sequence and spatial distribution.Comprehensive tests show that the forecast product revised by the average filter algorithm was superior to revised by the dynamic linear regression algorithm as well as the original forecast product.Through these algorithms, the more suitable temperature rise forecast value for each grid point in the study area can be obtained at different prediction times. The comprehensive and accurate temperature forecast value in mountainous snowmelt season can provide an accurate theoretical basis for effective prediction of the runoff in snowmelt areas and prevention of snowmelt flooding.

Owing to its unique position within multiple monsoon regimes, latitudinal extent, and complex topography, Vietnam is divided into seven agroclimatic zones, each with distinct rainy season characteristics. Variation in the dominant rainfall system across zones affects the rainfall climatology, the primary water resource for regional crops. This study explores the creation of an agronomic rainy season onset based on high-resolution rainfall data for each agroclimatic zone for applications in an agricultural context. Onset information has huge practical importance for both agriculture and the economy. The spatiotemporal characteristics of zonal onset date are analyzed using integrated approaches of spatial and interannual variability, temporal changes, and estimation of predictability using teleconnection with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) for 1980 to 2010. Results suggest that northern and southern zones experience regional onset dates in May, while the central zones experience rainy season onset in late August. The regional variability of rainy season onset is lower in a single dominant monsoon regime (northern and southern zones) and higher in latitudinally extended zones on the border of monsoon regimes (central zones). The interannual variation in rainy season onset date is found to be approximately 2 weeks across all agroclimatic zones. The significant negative trend in rainy season onset date is found for Central Coast and South Central Coast zones, suggesting that the onset date shifted earlier for the entire period. In the decadal scale, the zonal mean onset date shifted later in the Northwest and earlier in the Central Highlands. Out of the seven climate zones, a significant positive correlation is only noticed in the Central Highlands and South zones between zonal mean onset date and Niño 3.4 SSTA for Dec-Jan-Feb, suggesting the potential of seasonal scale predictability of rainy season onset date with respect to preceding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.

Canistel (Pouteria campechiana (Kunth) Baehni) (yellow sapote, canistel). Originally from Mexico, the fruit is edible, and the tree is used as an ornamental and medicinal plant. Descriptive studies were carried out with the objective of morphologically characterizing the fruits and leaves of trees located in different regions of Mexico to select outstanding specimens and propose their massive reproduction. The trees were selected in three zones. In zone 2 from flower anthesis to harvest 11 months, fruits with 3 seeds, greater weight (180 to 330 g) and quantity of pulp (198.88 g), subglobose shape, total soluble solids 33 %. The fruits of zone 1 at harvest 8 months and zone 3 took 9 months to be harvested, in the rest of the characteristics evaluated were exceeded by the fruits of zone 2. To characterize the canistel (P. campechiana) leaf and identify accessions or cultivars, the three main variables, according to the principal component analysis were: leaf area, perimeter, and minor diameter. The three zones where canistel fruits and leaves were characterized are important and can be recommended for propagation in zones with favorable climatic conditions for fruiting in tropical and subtropical regions of Mexico.

Hydrological processes are complex to compute on hilly areas when compared to the plain areas. Most of the hydrological model do not take into account the critical rainfall-runoff generation processes such as subsurface storm flow, saturation excess flow, overland flow, return flow and pipe storage. The simulations of the above processes in the soil matrix requires detailed hillslope hydrological modelling. In present study, a hillslope experimental plot is designed to study the runoff generation processes on the plot scale. The setup is designed keeping in view the natural hillslope conditions prevailing in the north western Himalayas, India where high intensity storm event occurs frequently. Using the experimental data and the developed conceptual model, the overland flow and the subsurface flow through macropore dominated area has been estimated/analyzed on the pixel basis. Over the experimental hillslope plot, a rainfall simulator was installed to generate the rainfall intensity in the range of 15 to 150 mm/hr which represented the dominating rainfall intensity range in the region. Soil moisture sensors were also installed at 100 mm and 300 mm depth at different locations of the plot to observe soil moisture variations. It was found that once the soil is saturated, it remains in the field capacity for next 24-36 hours. Such antecedent moisture conditions are most favorable for the generation of rapid stormflow from hillslopes. Dye infiltration test was also performed on the undisturbed soil column to observe the macropore fraction variability over the vegetated hillslopes. The surface runoff predicted using the developed hillslope hydrological model compared well with the observed surface runoff under high intensity rainfall conditions.

The development and utilization of wind energy is of great significance to the sustainable development of China's economy and the realization of the goal of "dual carbon". Under the typhoon system, the randomness and volatility of wind speed become an important basis for affecting the energy efficiency utilization and design of wind turbines. Therefore, based on wind speed and wind direction data at 10m, 30m, 50m and 70m heights of a wind power tower in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province, this paper analyzes the change characteristics of wind speed and wind direction by using BFAST method and Hurst index. Based on typhoon body data, topographic data and mesoscale system wind direction data, the causes of the occurrence and development of wind speed and wind direction of wind tower are further analyzed, and a conclusion is drawn: (1) In BEAST method, there are 5, 5, 6 and 6 change points at the height of 10m, 30m, 50m and 70m respectively. Among them, the change points at the height of 10m, 30m and 50m all change before and after node 325, and the change time point at the height of 70m is inconsistent with other heights. Hurst index results show that the inconsistency at 70m altitude is stronger than that at other altitudes. (2) The wind direction sequence at 10m, 30m, 50m and 70m altitude is fitted by stages, and the direction of wind direction is SE-E-SE-SW-W-NW, where, At the height of 70m, the deviation of the fitting trend line from other altitudes is larger in the wind speed strengthening stage and weakening stage. (3) The wind speed at the height of 10m and 70m has different response degrees to the typhoon body. The correlation between the wind speed and the distance between the wind measurement tower and the typhoon near the center is stronger at the height of 10m than at the height of 70m. The surface type and the wind direction of the mesoscale system also have certain effects on the wind speed and direction. In this paper, the change characteristics and influencing factors of wind speed and direction of wind tower are studied, which provides methods and theoretical support for the study of short-term wind speed when typhoon passes through, and provides reliable support for the selection of wind power forecast indicators and the selection and design of wind turbines under extreme gale weather systems.

The 2021/2022 influenza season was not characterised by a well-defined incidence peak. A high value of incidence was recorded in week 13, but it was still lower than in other influenza seasons. This abnormal circulation was probably due to relaxation of the COVID-19 pandemic restriction measures, which greatly reduced the circulation of respiratory-transmitted viruses, including human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV). The symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza are quite similar, sharing the human-to-human transmission route via respiratory droplets. The aim of this study was to estimate the rate of coinfection with influenza viruses and/or HRSV in SARS-CoV-2-positive subjects (N=940) in a population of central Italy during the 2021/2022 season. A total of 54 cases of coinfection were detected during the study period, 51 cases (5.4%) of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus and three cases (0.3%) of SARS-CoV-2 and HRSV coinfection. These results highlight the importance of continuous monitoring of the circulation of influenza virus and other respiratory viruses in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Management of Sclerotinia stem rot (SSR) disease in Brassica napus is heavily reliant on prophylactic fungicide applications at flowering, which often provides inconsistent control depending on timing of ascospore release in the field and environmental conditions. Understanding host response to Sclerotinia sclerotiorum infection is essential for sustainable disease management in the future. This study determined the host response of nine B. napus varieties to four aggressive S. sclerotiorum isolates across two years by measuring four disease variables; area under the disease progress stairs (AUDPS), seed production, sclerotia number and average sclerotia weight. Brassica napus varieties varied greatly in their response to the four measured variables, with varieties producing the highest AUDPS not the same varieties that had the lowest seed production, the highest numbers of sclerotia or heaviest sclerotia. Repeating the experiment over two years using the same varieties and isolates identified the impact of environment as the most influential factor on measured disease variables, highlighting the complexity of disease responses to diverse isolates and host genotypes under different environments. It was recommended that both long-term (such as inoculum production) and short-term (such as seed production) disease outcomes be combined with lesion length measurement (i.e. AUDPS) for future host screening studies.

The study aimed to identify football players at high risk (HR) for anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury via a four-test battery and assess possible factors affecting classification. Ninety-one professional and semi-professional athletes participated in a field-based preseason screening. Aknowledged inter-limb asymmetry limits for quadriceps and hamstrings isometric strength, and Single Leg Triple Hop for distance, in addition to the Landing Error Scoring System (LESS) comprised the test-battery. Additional assessment of hip adductors and core stability completed the global functional profile of the players. Sixty-one players were identified as HR and 30 as low-risk (LR) for ACL injury. Test-battery classified adequately 78,0% of them (Chi-square= 27,485 p=,000), identifying only 4 misclassified cases in the LR group, this low number being important for avoiding improper treatment of injury-prone athletes. All partcipants were considered healthy, and history of a previously rehabilitated injury did not interfere with the results. LESS seems to be the optimal criterion for classification and also the best predictor of both the initial grouping and the secondary one with the wrong vs correct classification cases. The proposed test-battery provides a promising option for field-based preseason ACL-risk assessment of football players and needs to be studied prospectively.

Despite increased protection globally, climate change and other anthropogenic factors have caused a significant decline in seagrass cover. Identifying the specific causes of this decline is paramount if they are to be addressed. Therefore, we identified the causes of long-term change in seagrass/submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) percentage cover and extent in the Bluefields Bay Special Fish Conservation Area (BBSFCA), a marine protected area on Jamaica’s southern coast. We used two random forest regression (RFr) models that included 2013 hydroacoustic survey SAV percentage cover data (dependent variable), and auxiliary data, reflectance data from level 2 processed 2013 Landsat 7 and 8 images and image band texture statistics maps (mean and variance) as predictors to generate 24 SAV percentage cover maps for the period 1984 – 2021 (37 years) using data from Landsat 4-5, 7 and 8 images., from which benthic features maps (SAV present, absent and coral reef) were created. Rainfall and map data were used to determine if SAV extent/area (km2) and average percentage cover and annual rainfall changed significantly over time and to evaluate the influence of rainfall. Rainfall impact on the overall spatial patterns of SAV loss, gain, and percentage cover change was assessed using a pixel-based regression. Finally, the most important spatial pattern predictors (two rainfall proxies (distance and direction from river mouth), benthic topography, depth, and hurricane exposure (a measure of hurricane disturbance)) of SAV loss, gain, and percentage cover change during 23 successive 1-to-4-year periods were identified using spatial Bayesian INLA generalized linear mixed models. SAV area/extent was largely stable with > 70% mean percentage cover for multiple years. However, Hurricane Ivan (in 2004) caused a significant decline in SAV area/extent (by 1.62 km2, or a 13%) during 2002 – 2006 and a second hurricane (Dean) in 2007 delayed recovery until 2015. Additionally, rainfall declined significantly by >1000 mm since 1901, and mean monthly rainfall positively influenced SAV percentage cover change. The pixel-based regression highlighted areas where mean monthly rainfall had a positive overall effect on SAV cover percentage change (across the entire bay) and gain (closer to the mouth of a river). The most frequently selected important spatial pattern predictors were the two rainfall proxies (areas closer to the river mouth were more likely to experience SAV loss and gain) and depth, with shallow areas generally having a higher probability of SAV loss and gain. Three hurricanes had significant but different impacts depending on their distance from the southern coastline. Hurricane Gilbert, which made landfall in 1988, resulted in higher SAV percentage cover loss in 1987 - 1988. Benthic locations with a northwestern/northern facing aspect (the predominant direction of Ivan’s leading edge wind bands) experienced higher SAV losses during 2002 – 2006. Although some locations impacted by Ivan and not by Dean recovered during 2006 – 2008, exposure to Ivan explained percentage cover loss during 2006 – 2008 and average exposure to (the cumulative impact of) Ivan and Dean (both with tracks close to the southern coastline) explained SAV loss during 2013 – 2015. Therefore, despite historic lows in annual rainfall, overall, higher rainfall was beneficial, multiple hurricanes impacted the site, and despite two hurricanes in three years SAV recovered within a decade. Hurricanes and a further reduction in rainfall may pose a serious threat to SAV persistence in the future.

The statistical analysis of impact of the top 50 solar flares of X-class (1997-2023) on the global seismic activity, as well as on the earthquake preparation zones located in illuminated part of the globe and in the area of 5000 km radius around the subsolar point was carried out. It is shown by a method of epoch superposition that for all cases the increase of seismicity is observed, especially in the region around the subsolar point (up to 38%) during 10 days after the solar flare in comparison with preceding 10 days. The case study of aftershock sequence of strong M=9.1 earthquake (Su-matra-Andaman Islands, 26.12.2004) after the solar flare of X7.2 class (20.01.2005) demonstrated that the number of aftershocks with magnitude M≥2.5 increases more than 20 times after the solar flare with a delay of 7 days. For the case of the Darfield earthquake (M=7.1, 04.09.2010, New Zealand) it was shown that strong solar flares of class X and M probably triggered two strong aftershocks (M>6) with the same delay of 6 days on the Port Hills fault, which is the most sensitive to external electromagnetic impact from point of view of the fault electrical conductivity and orientation. Based on the obtained results the possible application of natural electromagnetic triggering of earthquakes is discussed for a short-term earthquake prediction using confidently recorded strong external electromagnetic triggering impacts on the specific earthquake preparation zones, as well as ionospheric perturbations due to aerosol emission from the earthquake sources recorded by satellites.

This research focusing on the environmental impact of tire and brake pad wear constitutes a significant area of transport-related studies. These two key vehicle components are not only the most frequently worn, but also generate micro and nano pollutants (i.e., rubber, metal oxides) that potentially harm the environment. Over half of the globally produced natural and synthetic rubbers, which amounted to about 30 million tons in 2022, are used for tire production. According to Wagner et al.'s research, over 1.3 million tons of such particles are released due to wear and tear in the European Union alone. This work focuses on examining snow deposits from various locations in an urban agglomeration (Poznan, Poland) in the winter season. FT-IR and NMR spectroscopic studies, optical and electron scanning microscopy SEM-EDS, and particle size studies using the DLS technique were conducted for a detailed characterization of pollutants in the environment. The conducted particle separation methods allowed for the extraction of a fraction mainly containing gum residues with particle sizes less than 2 µm. The results of these studies are crucial for understanding the impact of vehicle part exploitation on the environment.

Today, given the paramount importance of food safety to human health, mycotoxins are considered especially important contaminants of foodstuffs. Among the mycotoxins, aflatoxins are potent food contaminants which are present in maize and wheat. Invasions of toxigenic fungi in the field and during storage are directly affected by climate and other environmental factors. A total of 129 samples of maize and grain harvested in 2022 were surveyed for mycological contamination. Aflatoxin B1 contamination was investigated using the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) method.Our study revealed the presence of fungi from five genera: Aspergillus, Fusarium, Penicillium, Alternaria, and Cladosporium. We also found that maize was more frequently contaminated than wheat. Fungi of the Penicillium genus were the most abundant (77.89%), followed by Fusarium (74.73%) and Aspergillus (72.63%). Samples originating from the Korça region (10⁴ units) exhibited a higher fungal load on the three genera. AFB1 contamination is a more critical issue in maize than wheat. The incidence of AFB1 in maize was 88.23%, with a maximum concentration of 69.12 μg/kg; in contrast, the incidence of AFB1 in wheat was only 4.91%. In wheat, no samples had AFB1 concentrations above the EU Maximum Residue Level (MRL) of 2 μg/kg; in maize, 41.18% of samples exceeded the AFB1 MRL of 5 μg/kg for human food, and 32.25% exceeded the MRL for animal feed. These findings, together with other research results from the last decade, suggest that relevant information should be made available to farmers, and good agriculture practices encouraged, as a matter of priority.

Seasonal influenza is a common cause of hospital admission, especially in older people and those with comorbidities. The objective of this study was to determine influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing intensive care admissions and shortening the length of stay (LOS) in hospitalized laboratory-confirmed influenza cases (HLCI) in Catalonia (Spain).A retrospective cohort study was carried out during the 2017-2018 season in HLCI aged ≥ 18 years from 14 public hospitals. Differences in means and proportions were assessed using a t-test or a chi-square test as necessary and the differences were quantified using standardized effect measures; Cohen’s d for quantitative and Cohen’s w for categorical variables. Adjusted influenza vaccine effectiveness in preventing severity was estimated by multivariate logistic regression where the adjusted VE = (1-adjusted odds ratio) ·100%; adjustment was also made using the propensity score.We analyzed 1414 HLCI aged ≥ 18 years; 465 (33%) were vaccinated, of whom 437 (94%) were aged ≥ 60 years, 269 (57.8%) were male and 295 (63.4%) were positive for influenza type B. ICU admission was required in 214 (15.1%) cases. There were 141/1118 (12.6%) ICU admissions in patients aged ≥ 60 years and 73/296 (24.7%) in those aged < 60 years (p<0.001). The mean LOS and ICU LOS did not differ significantly between vaccinated and unvaccinated patients. There were 52/465 (11.2%) in vaccinated cases) ICU admissions in vaccinated cases vs. 162/949 (17.1%) in unvaccinated cases. Patients admitted to the ICU had a longer hospital LOS (mean: 22.4 [SD 20.3] days) than those who were not (mean: 11.1 [SD14.4] days); p<0.001. Overall, vaccination was associated with a lower risk of ICU admission. Taking virus types A and B together, the estimated adjusted VE in preventing ICU admission was 31% (95% CI 1-52; p=0.04). When stratified by viral type, the aVE was 40% for type A (95% CI -11-68; p = 0.09) and 25% for type B (95% CI -18-52; p = 0.21). Annual influenza vaccination may prevent ICU admission in cases of HLCI. A non-significantly shorter mean hospital stay was observed in vaccinated cases. Our results support the need to increase vaccination uptake and public perception of the benefits of influenza vaccination in groups at a higher risk of hospitalization and severe outcomes.

The static formation temperature (SFT) is required to determine the thermophysical properties and production parameters in geothermal and oil reservoirs. However, the SFT is not easy to be obtained by both experimental and physical methods. In this paper, a mathematical approach to predicting SFT based on a new model describing the relationship between bottom hole temperature (BHT) and shut-in time was proposed. The unknown coefficients of the model were derived from least squares fit by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. Besides, the ability to predict SFT based on a few BHT data (such as first 3, 4, or 5 ones of a data set) was evaluated. The accuracy of the proposed method to predict SFT was testified with a deviation percentage less than ±4% and high values of regression coefficient R² (>0.98). The proposed method could be used as a practical tool to predict SFT in both geothermal and oil wells.

In permafrost regions, ground surface deformations induced by freezing and thawing threaten the integrity of the built environment. Mapping the frost susceptibility of the ground at a high spatial resolution is of practical importance for the construction and planning sectors. We processed Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data from thawing seasons 2015 to 2019, acquired over the area of Ilulissat, West Greenland. We used a least-squares inversion scheme to retrieve the average seasonal displacement (S) and long-term deformation rate (R). We secondly investigated two different methods to extrapolate active layer thickness (ALT) measurements, based on their statistical relationship with remotely-sensed surface characteristics. A Generalized Linear Model (GLM) was first implemented, but the model was not able to fit the data and represent the ALT spatial variability over the entire study domain. ALT were alternatively averaged per vegetation class, using a land cover map derived by supervised classification of Sentinel-2 images. We finally estimated the active layer ice content and used it as a proxy to map the frost susceptibility of the ground at the community scale. Fine-grained sedimentary basins in Ilulissat were typically frost susceptible and subject to average seasonal downward displacements of 3 to 8 cm. Areas following a subsiding trend of up to 2.6 cm/yr were likely affected by permafrost degradation and melting of ground ice below the permafrost table. Our approach enabled us to identify frost-susceptible areas subject to severe seasonal deformations, and/or long-term subsidence induced by degrading permafrost. Used in combination with traditional site investigations, InSAR maps provide valuable information for risk management and community planning in the Arctic.

The potential yield of annual crops is affected by management practices and water and energy availabilities throughout the crop season. The current work aimed to assess the effects of plant population and soil covering on yield components of maize. Field experiments were carried out during 2014-15 and 2015-16 growing seasons at areas grown with oat straw, voluntary plants and bare soil, considering five different plant populations (40,000, 60,000, 80,000, 100,000 and 120,000 plants ha-1) and three sowing dates (15 Sep., 30 Oct., 15 Dec.) for the hybrid P30F53YH in Ponta Grossa, State of Parana, Brazil. Non-impacts of soil covering or plant population on plant height at the flowering phenological stage were observed. Significant effects of soil covering on crop physiological and yield components responses throughout the 2014-15 season were detected. Influence of plant populations on yield components was evidenced, suggesting that from 80,000 plants ha-1 the P30F53YH hybrid performs a compensatory effect among assessed yield components in such a way as to not compromise productivity insofar as plant population increases up to 120,000 plants ha-1. It was noticed a positive trend of yield components and crop final yield as a function of plant density increments.

Advances in remote sensing have led to use of satellite-derived rainfall products to complement the sparse rain gauge data. Although globally derived and some regional bias corrected, these products often show large discrepancies with ground measurements attributed to local and external factors that require systematic consideration. Decreasing rain gauge network however inhibits continuous validation of these products. We propose to deal with this problem by the use of Bayesian approach to merge the existing historical rain gauge information to create a consistent satellite rainfall data that can be used for climate studies. Monthly Bayesian bias correction is applied to the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS v2) data to reduce systematic errors using a corresponding gridded (0.05°) rain gauge data over East Africa for a period of 33 (1981–2013) years of which 22 years are utilized to derive error fields which are then applied to an independent CHIRPS data for 11 years for validation. The bias correction is spatially and temporally assessed during the rainfall wet months of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and October–December (OND) in East Africa. Results show significant reduction of systematic errors at both monthly and yearly scales and harmonization of their cumulative distributions. Monthly statistics showed a reduction of RMSD (29–56)% and MAE (28–60)% and an increase of correlations (2–32) %, while yearly ones showed reductions of RMSD (9-23)%, and MAE (7–27)% and increase of correlations (4–77)% for MAM months, reduction of RMSD (15–35)% and MAE (16–41)% and increase in correlations (5–16)% for JJA months, and reduction of RMSD (3–35)% and MAE (9–32)% and increase of correlations (3–65)% for OND months. Systematic errors of corrected data were influenced by local processes especially over Lake Victoria and high elevated areas. Large-scale circulations induced errors were mainly during JJA and OND rainfall seasons and were reduced by the separation of anomalous years during training. The proposed approach is recommended for generating long-term data for climate studies where consistencies of errors can be assumed.

Aiming at the development of the application of massive and heterogeneous LEO constellations, the influence of typical perturbation forces on the orbit prediction of LEO satellites at different altitudes is analyzed. Firstly, the main perturbation force model of LEO satellites is introduced. Then experiments for analyzing the influence of orbit prediction on LEO satellites at different altitudes are designed. Finally, the influence of typical perturbation forces on the orbit prediction under different prediction durations by numerical analysis is assessed systematically, and the orbit prediction of LEO satellites with different non-spherical gravitational field orders, ocean tide orders and atmospheric density models were compared and calculated. The research results show that different orders of non-spherical gravitational fields should be considered when the altitude of satellites is different, the reasonable gravitational field orders for LEO satellites at 500km, 1000km, 1500km and 2000km under 1-hour forecast time are 140x140, 80x80, 60x60 and 40x40 orders, the reasonable orders of ocean tide perturbation for 1500km and 2000km satellites are 20x20 orders. Under the 24-hour forecast time, atmospheric resistance has a great influence on the precision of LEO satellites at orbit altitude below 1,000km. The forecast deviation of the LEO satellites orbit at 500km reaches 8751.576m. The difference of orbit precision between different atmospheric density models is in the meter level. The orbit deviation by the Standard Atmosphere 1976 and NRLMSISE 2000 atmospheric models respectively reaches 25.494m. Relevant conclusions provide support for the optimization and selection of dynamical models in high precision orbit determination and fast orbit prediction of LEO satellites.

This manuscript describes the construction and validation of high resolution daily gridded (0.05° × 0.05°) rainfall and maximum and minimum temperature data for Bangladesh : the Enhancing National Climate Services for Bangladesh Meteorological Department (ENACTS-BMD) dataset. The dataset was generated by merging data from weather stations, satellite products (for rainfall) and reanalysis (for temperature). ENACTS-BMD is the first high-resolution gridded surface meteorological dataset developed specifically for studies of surface climate processes in Bangladesh. Its record begins in January 1981 and is updated in real-time monthly and outputs have daily, decadal and monthly time resolution. The Climate Data Tools (CDT), developed by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, is used to generate the dataset. This data processing includes the collection of weather and gridded data, quality control of stations data, downscaling of the reanalysis for temperature, bias correction of both satellite rainfall and downscaled reanalysis of temperature, and the combination of station and bias-corrected gridded data. The ENACTS-BMD dataset is available as an open-access product at BMD’s official website, allowing the enhancement of the provision of services, overcoming the challenges of data quality, availability, and access, promoting at the same time the engagement and use by stakeholders.

The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of constitutive equations on the prediction accuracy for springback in cold stamping with various deformation modes. In this study, two types of yield functions—Hill’48 and Yld2000-2d—were considered to describe yield behavior. Isotropic and kinematic hardening models based on the Yoshida–Uemori model were also adopted to describe hardening behavior. Various material tests (such as uniaxial tension, tension- compression, loading-unloading, and hydraulic bulging tests) were carried out to determine the material parameters of the models. The obtained parameters were implemented in the finite element (FE) simulation to predict springback, and the results were compared with experimental data. U-bending and T-shape drawing were employed to evaluate the springback prediction accuracy. Obviously, the springback prediction accuracy was greatly influenced by constitutive equations. Therefore, it is important to choose appropriate constitutive equations for accurate description of material behaviors in FE simulation.

We investigated rainfall patterns in India over during the 60-year period from 1951 to 2010 and predicted changes for the next century (2051-2100) with an assumed 4K warming from large ensemble experiments (190 members). We focused on rainfall patterns during two periods of present-day climate (1951-1980 and 1981-2010) and their projected changes for the near and far future (2051-2080 and 2081-2110). Our analysis revealed that the northeastern region of India and some southern regions received higher rainfall during the period of 1951-2010. This finding is consistent with daily observations from the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE). In a warming climate, rainfall events in India are predicted to carry more precipitation, with the northeast and southern regions experiencing stronger rainfall events. The frequency and intensity of these events (with more than 20mm of rainfall per day, on average) are also expected to increase. Overall, our study suggests that water-related disasters such as flooding and landslides could be much worse in India in the future due to climate warming.

Satellite-based rainfall estimation products provide a vital alternative source of rainfall data in areas where conventional precipitation measurement is not readily available. In order to facilitate the use of these products there is the need to evaluate their accuracies. This study evaluated the accuracy of three satellite rainfall products; TMPA 3B42RT, TMPA 3B42 and CMORPH in the Pra basin (23,330 km²) of Ghana. The evaluation was through the point-to-pixel method by comparing 0.25°x 0.25° satellite grids to gauged rainfall based on gauge locations and analyzed statistically using correlation coefficient (r), bias and percent bias (pBias) as the performance verification methods. Seven (7) gauge stations with no missing data for the period of 2003-2008 was used in the evaluation. The analysis was based on daily, monthly, annual and seasonal timescales. Our results showed a good correlation between the TMPA products and the gauged data on all timescales considered. The CMORPH on the other hand showed huge overestimation at all gauge locations. The TMPA 3B42 was seen to be the best amongst the three products. The overall rainfall in the basin was well depicted by the TMPA 3B42 and 3B42RT. Although there wasn’t a perfect match between the 3B42RT and 3B42 products and the gauged rainfall, these products can be used to supplement gauged rainfall measurements in the basin and in estimation of rainfall in ungauged basins with similar characteristics.

We have an unprecedented ability to map the Earth’s surface as deep learning technologies are applied to an abundance of high-frequency Earth observation data. Simple, free, and effective methods are needed to enable a variety of stakeholders to use these tools to improve scientific knowledge and decision making. Here we present a trained U-Net model that can map and delineate ground mounted solar arrays using publicly available Sentinel-2 imagery, and that requires minimal data pre-processing and no feature engineering. By using label overloading and image augmentation during training, the model is robust to temporal and spatial variation in imagery. The trained model achieved a precision and recall of 91.5% each and an intersection over union of 84.3% on independent validation data from two distinct geographies. This generalizability in space and time makes the model useful for repeatedly mapping solar arrays. We use this model to delineate all ground mounted solar arrays in North Carolina and the Chesapeake Bay watershed to illustrate how these methods can be used to quickly and easily produce accurate maps of solar infrastructure.

Ongoing climate change causes abnormal climate events worldwide such as increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. With South Korea facing growing damage from the increased frequency of localized heavy rains, the country is not an exception. In particular, its steep slope lands, including mountainous areas, are vulnerable to damage from landslides and debris flows. In addition, localized short-term heavy rains that occur in urban areas with extremely high intensity tend to lead a sharp increase in damage from soil-related disasters and cause huge losses of life and property. Currently, South Korea predicts landslides and debris flows using the standards for forecasting landslides and heavy rains. However, as the forecasting is conducted separately for rainfall intensity and accumulated rainfall, this lacks a technique that reflects both amount and intensity of rainfall in an episode of localized heavy rainfall. This study, therefore, aims to develop such a technique by collecting past cases of debris flow occurrences and rainfall events that accompanied debris flows to calculate the rainfall triggering index (RTI) reflecting accumulated rainfall and rainfall intensity. In addition, the RTI is converted into the critical accumulated rainfall (Rc) to use precipitation information and provide real-time forecasting. The study classifies the standards for flow debris forecasting into three levels: ALERT (10%–50%), WARNING (50%–70%), and EMERGENCY (70% or higher), to provide a nomogram for 6 hr, 12 hr, and 24 hr. As a result of applying this classification into the actual cases of Seoul, Chuncheon, and Cheongju, it is found that about 2–4 hr of response time is secured from the point of the Emergency level to the occurrence of debris flows.

The City of Pasadena is located in southern California; a region which has a Mediterranean climate and where the vast majority of rainfall occurs between October and April with the period between January and March being the most intense. A significant amount of the local water supply comes from regional rainfall, therefore any changes in precipitation patterns in the area has considerable significance. HYPOTHESIS: Local climate change has been occurring in the Pasadena area over the last 100 years resulting in changes in air temperature and rainfall. AIR TEMPERATURES: Between 1886 and 2016 the air temperature in Pasadena, California has increased significantly, from a minimum of 23.8°C in the daytime and 8.1°C at night between 1911 and 1920 to 27.2°C and 13.3°C between 2011 and 2016. The increase in nighttime temperature was uniform throughout the year, however daytime temperatures showed more seasonal variation. There was little change in the daytime temperatures May through July but more change the rest of the year. For example, the median daytime temperature for June between 1911 and 1920 was 27.9°C but was 28.7°C between 2011 and 2016, a difference of 0.8°C. In contrast, for October for the same periods the median daytime temperatures were 25.6°C and 28.9°C, a difference of 3.3°C. RAINFALL: There has been a change in local rainfall pattern over the same period. In comparing rainfall between 1883 – 1949 and 1950 – 2016, there appeared to be less rainfall in the months of October, December, and April while other months seemed to show no change in rainfall. For example, between the two periods mentioned above, the median rainfall in October was 12.4 mm and 8.9 mm respectively while for December they were 68.6 mm and 40.4 mm. There was comparatively a smaller change in the median volume of rainfall in April (18.8 mm vs. 17.5 mm). However, between 1883 and 2016 there were 13 with less than 1 mm of rain, 12 of which occurred after 1961. In the same line of logic, no measureable amount of rain occurred for 23 Octobers, 15 of those occurred after 1961. CONCLUSION: As air temperatures increased over the last 100 years in the Pasadena area, rainfall may have decreased in October, December, and April.

TThe following three objectives were tested in this study: (1) investigate the utility of low-altitude remote sensing using UAS technology to compare the effects of different N application systems in rice production; (2) use spatial extrapolation to scale up plot-level generated to farmer field rice yield data based on crop spectral signatures, and (3) predict and map out rice productivity as a function of N placement systems. Images were captured on a UAV platform at midseason of the rice crop. Orthomosaics were developed for selected fields in rice-producing zones. Grain yields were assessed from low, medium, and high crop health plots delineated based on NDVI values. On the plot scale, UDP outyielded non-UDP by 0.84%. Individual plot yield data were scaled up to the farmer field level through Jenks natural breaks classification and es-tablishing an empirical relationship between OSAVI and plot yields. Assessment of the scaled-up field levelfield-level data also confirmed the superiority of UDP N man-agement over the non-UDP systems in promoting rice yields. Scaling up plot scale da-ta to whole field levels also facilitated generating and mapping expected yield maps for individual farmer fields in the three zones studied. This study has established a tangible simple but tangible protocol protocol for predicting and mapping rice yields in small-scale farmer fields using UAS data.

: This study investigates the use of various thunderstorm indices in predicting severe thunderstorms events during the monsoon season in four different regions in India. The research evaluates the performance of the prediction model using a model skill score and utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the double moment microphysics scheme to simulate model cases. It also compares fifteen thunderstorm indices derived from the ERA5 dataset to identify the most effective index for predicting severe thunderstorms events. The results of this study show that in-corporating thunderstorm indices with model skill scores improves severe thunderstorms fore-casting in the monsoon season in India. The result revealed that determining the optimal threshold for each index is crucial in achieving accurate predictions. The study also highlights the importance of considering multiple indices rather than relying on a single index to predict severe thunderstorms events. The advance indices such as Energy Helicity Index (EHI), Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP), mainly works well with extreme severe thunderstorms. The simplistic indices can predict the weak or severe thunderstorm easily. The use of multiple thunderstorm indices can also help mete-orologists to make more accurate predictions, which can further enhance public safety. In conclu-sion, this study demonstrates the potential of incorporating thunderstorm indices with model skill scores like HSS and TSS and combinations of different skill scores in severe thunderstorms fore-casting during the monsoon season in India. Future research can build upon the findings of this study to develop more accurate and reliable severe weather forecasting models.

Ethiopian agriculture is not only affected by precipitation declines (meteorological droughts) but also soil dryness caused by temperature increases and associated long-term hydrological changes. Meteorological drought indicators (e.g., SPI), do not fully capture the water deficits in agricultural systems (i.e., agricultural droughts). An Ethiopia-wide assessment of meteorological and agricultural drought trends was carried out to characterize century-scale (1902 – 2016) changes in droughts. SPI and SPEI calculated using two-month accumulation and the Palmer Z-index were used for assessing intra-season drought trends. SPI and SPEI at six-month accumulations and PDSI were used to define full season droughts. Detrended variance corrected Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis during Bega (dry), Belg (short-rainy) and Meher (long-rainy) seasons. The SPEI-2 and PDSI were most aggressive in characterizing intra-season and seasonal-drought trends. There is on average 1% - 6% annual increase in dryness with the lower estimate based on precipitation declines and the upper end accounting for seasonal soil moisture dynamics. The area between 37.5° E – 42.5° E denotes a climate hot-spot. Precipitation declines in Belg along the Ethiopia-South-Sudan/Sudan border during Belg and along Eretria-Ethiopia border during Meher have the potential to exacerbate transboundary water conflicts and further threaten the food security of the region.

BKW is a highly efficient Storage Function-type rainfall-runoff model that utilizes the steady-state storage (S) and outflow (Q) of a catchment at different rainfall intensities as the S-Q relation of the catchment. For the inundation nowcasting of urban areas under high-intensity, short-duration rainfall, a Storage Function-type model is a judicious choice. However, S-Q hysteresis exists in the catchment S-Q relation, and BKW is unable to exhibit hysteresis due to assuming that the S-Q relation of a catchment is a nonlinear relation. The S-Q hysteresis can influence the outflow estimation of BKW, reducing the model's accuracy. Through the evaluation of analytical solutions, we found that the change in rainfall intensity dominates the S-Q relation of a catchment. The S-Q relation during a rainfall event is a dynamic process rather than a monotonic nonlinear relation. By applying the dynamic S-Q relation in BKW, we improved BKW to become a highly efficient and accurate rainfall-runoff model for small urban catchments.

This paper investigates the influence of different vegetation on the permeability of the shallow soil layers of slopes under rainfall infiltration. Firstly, four large slopes are filled in the outdoor natural environment, and the overburdens of the four slopes are Magnolia multiflora, Cynodon dactylon, Magnolia multiflora mixed with Cynodon dactylon, and no vegetation. Secondly, the four slopes are cultivated in the outdoor natural environment for one year. After the vegetation overburdens are matured, the field artificial rainfall test is carried out through the self-developed artificial rainfall device to monitor the water migration law inside the four slopes in real time. Finally, the unsaturated permeability coefficients of the shallow soil layers of slopes are calculated. The results show that the infiltration rate of rainwater in each overburden slope from fast to slow is Magnolia multiflora overburden slope, no vegetation slope, Cynodon dactylon overburden slope, Magnolia multiflora mixed with Cynodon dactylon overburden slope. In the early stage of rainfall, Magnolia multiflora increases the permeability coefficient of the shallow soil layer of the slope, thus weakening the anti-seepage ability of the slope, but the influence of Magnolia multiflora is not obvious in the later stage. Cynodon dactylon and Magnolia multiflora mixed with Cynodon dactylon can significantly reduce the permeability coefficient of the shallow soil layers of the slopes, thereby increasing the anti-seepage ability of the slopes, and the mixed planting of Magnolia multiflora and Cynodon dactylon can minimize the permeability coefficient of the shallow soil of the slope, resulting in the best anti-seepage effect.

Climate change is an issue that is the order of the day, and among the many consequences it has on the environment one is its influence on the amount and frequency of rainfall on our planet, since our water supply depends on them. Therefore, in order to quantify these effects, a rainfall analysis has been carried out using data collected in Bilbao over the last 150 years. Thanks to this, it has been possible to observe that, although the total annual amount seems to suffer a slight decrease, hardly quantifiable with certainty, it is true that the intra-annual patterns are more concentrated at certain times of the year, with greater imbalances between one month and another than in previous years. However, taking into account the capacity of the reservoirs that supply the Greater Bilbao area, it can be concluded that this does not pose any problem for Bilbao's supply, at least at present.

This study proposed a spatially and temporally improving methodology adopting the Regional Frequency Analysis with L-moments approach to estimate rainfall quantiles from 22787 grids of radar rainfall in Taiwan for a 24-hour duration. Due to limited radar coverage in the eastern region, significant discordant grids were found in the coastal area of the eastern region. A K-means cluster analysis using scaled at-site characteristics was used to group the QPESUMS grids in Taiwan into 22 clusters/sub-regions based on their characteristics. Spatially, homogeneous subregions with QPESUMS data produce more detailed homogeneous subregions with clear and continuous boundaries, especially in the mountain range area where the number of rain stations is still very limited. According to the results of z-values and L-moment ratio diagrams, the Wakeby (WAK), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Generalized Pareto (GPA) distributions of rainfall extremes fitted well for the majority of subregions. The Wakeby distribution was the dominant best-fitted distribution, especially in the central and eastern regions. The east of the northern part and southern part of Taiwan had the highest extreme rainfall for each return period. Both areas were frequently struck by typhoons. By using grid-based (at-site) as the basis for assessing regional frequency analysis, the results show that the regional approach in determining extreme rainfall is very suitable for large-scale applications and even better for smaller scales such as watershed areas. The spatial investigation was performed by establishing regions of interest in small subregions across the northern part. It showed that regionalization was correct and consistent.

Rainfall retrieval using geostationary satellites provides critical means to the monitoring of extreme rainfall events. Using the relatively new Himawari 8 meteorological satellite with three times more channels than its predecessors, the deep learning framework of “convolutional autoencoder” (CAE) was applied to the extraction of cloud and precipitation features. The CAE method was incorporated into the Convolution Neural Network version of the PERSIANN precipitation retrieval that uses GOES satellites. By applying the CAE technique with the addition of Residual Blocks and other modifications of deep learning architecture, the presented derivation of PERSIANN operated at the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan (referred to as PERSIANN-CWB) expands four extra convolution layers to fully use Himawari 8’s infrared and water vapor channels, while preventing degradation of accuracy caused by the deeper network. The development of PERSIANN-CWB was trained over Taiwan for its diverse weather systems and localized rainfall features, and the evaluation reveals an overall improvement from its CNN counterpart and superior performance over all other rainfall retrievals analyzed. Limitation of this model was found in the derivation of typhoon rainfall, an area requiring further research.

In this study a new approach for planning Micro-Catchment Water Harvesting (M.C.W.H.) systems for irrigation in semi-arid regions such as the Aegean islands, is presented. M.C.W.H. is a cheap solution for constructing irrigation infrastructure with zero energy cost in regions where water is scarce. The proposed approach introduces simple linear relationships for estimating the annual volume of water V_s collected mainly from the CA (Contributing Area), stored in the root zone (Infiltration Basin, IB), according to the annual rainfall and runoff depths, after having determined the ratio of areas of micro-catchment (MC) components i.e. λ= Α_CA/Α_ΙΒ and its whole area A_MC This procedure was applied in Paros island of the Cyclades complex in the middle of the Aegean sea in east Mediterranean. Besides, income-cost analysis was performed via NPV method for almond, peach and apricot trees. The new approach was proved versatile and easy to use. Besides, the investment turned out to be advantageous two years after the MCs construction.

In this work a modified version of the well-known Simple Water Balance (SWB) model, comprising here three parameters instead of one, was used. Although simple, the model was tested in large-scale river basins in east-central Greece, upstream two hydrometric stations. The available historic runoff records comprised 19 hydrologic years each, on a monthly basis. Thirteen among them were used for calibrating the model, whereas the six subsequent, for validating it. Two different efficiency criteria were used as a measure of performance of the modified model. Their values, calculated for both calibration and validation stages, were close and relatively high. Thus, keeping in mind both the size and complexity of the river basins studied, one can conclude that the modified model, despite its simplistic concept and lumped form, fits satisfactorily the historic runoff series.

The Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) on the Core GPM satellite provides spaceborne 3-dimensional observations of the precipitation field and surface rainfall rate with quasi global coverage. The present study evaluates the behavior of liquid precipitation intensity, radar reflectivity factor (ZKu and ZKa) and Drop Size Distribution (DSD) parameters (weighted mean diameter Dm and intercept parameter Nw) of the GPM DPR derived products version 07 from 2014 to 2023. Observations from seven Parsivel disdrometers located in different topographic zones in the Western Mediterranean are taken as ground reference. Four matching techniques between satellite estimates and ground level observations were tested, and best results were found for the so-called optimal comparison approach. Overall, GPM DPR products capture well the variability of the observed DSD at different rainfall intensities. However, overestimation of the mean Dm and underestimation of the mean Nw are observed, being much more sensitive to errors in drop diameters larger than 1.5 mm. Moreover, lowest errors were found for radar reflectivity factor and Dm, and highest for Nw and rainfall rate. In addition, the GPM DPR convective and stratiform classification was tested and it was found a substantial overestimation of stratiform cases compared to disdrometer observations.

This study investigates the historical variability in annual average precipitation in the northwest region of Mexico, aiming to evaluate the cumulative impact of precipitation on soil degradation and associated risks posed by rainfall. Despite being known as "The Agricultural Heart of Mexico," the region's soil has experienced significant damage to its granulometric structure due to unpredictable rainfall patterns attributed to climate change. Sixteen historical series of average annual rainfall were analyzed as stationary stochastic processes for spectral analysis. The results revealed exponential decay curves in each radial spectrum, indicating a linear relationship between frequency and amplitude. These curves identified initial impulses correlated with moments of severity for structural damages caused by rainfall-induced degradation. The degradation process, exacerbated by water stress, accelerates, as evidenced by maps illustrating approximately 75% soil damage. In the context of climate change and the uncertainty surrounding soil responses to extreme meteorological events, understanding this phenomenon becomes crucial. Recognizing the dynamic nature of soil responses to environmental stressors is essential for effective soil management. Emphasizing the need to employ numerical processes tailored to new environmental considerations related to observed soil damages is crucial for sustainable soil management practices in any region.

In recent decades, there have been significant problems worldwide related to global warming and the intensification of extreme temperature and rainfall events. This research evaluated daily temperature and rainfall indices trends to identify whether warming signals have occurred in South Australia over the past fifty years. Extreme cold, hot, and rainfall events were calculated using climatic data from 37 weather stations. A Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis with Sen's estimator. As a result, we determined that for the 1970-2021 period, the maximum and minimum temperatures increased by 1.1 and 0.7 °C, respectively, while precipitation had a negative trend (-52.2 mm/period). Since statistical significance was found in analysing extreme cold and hot events, we find that warming signals have several impacts on South Australia. In the case of rainfall events, we identified a heterogeneous pattern characterised by a reduction in the annual amount, and an increase in extreme rainfall events. The findings enable us to conclude that the area shows signs of global warming that could affect the intensity and magnitude of droughts. This information is essential for continuing with current management strategies to adapt and mitigate the effects of global warming in South Australia.

This study aims to assess trends and significant changes in precipitation and river flow in the Senegal River basin and its upper basin over the period 1982-2021. Eight hydroclimate indicators, namely maximum river discharge (QMAX), standardized flow index, mean daily rainfall intensity index (SDII), maximum 5-day consecutive precipitation (RX5DAY), annual precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile (R95p), annual precipitation exceeding the 99th percentile (R99P), annual flows exceeding the 95th percentile (Q95p), and annual flows exceeding the 99th percentile (Q95p) were considered.. The modified Mann-Kendall test (MMK) was used to analyze trends in extremes while standard normal homogeneity and Pettit’s tests were employed to detect potential breakpoints in these trends. The results indicated an irregular precipitation pattern, with high values of extreme precipitation indices (R95p, R99p, SDII, and RX5DAY) in the southern part, while the northern part exhibits lower values. Inter-annual analysis revealed a significant increase in extreme precipitation events between 1982 and 2021, with a notable breakpoint around the years 2006 and 2007. This breakpoint marks a transition to a much wetter period starting from 2008. Regarding extreme flows, a significant increase was observed between 1982 and 2021. This study provides insights into past hydrological extremes in the study area and can serve as a basis for future research in this field.