While numerous studies have explored the correlation between the built environment and ride-hailing demand, few have assessed their nonlinear interplay. Utilizing ride-hailing order data and multi-source built environment data from Nanjing, China, this paper uses the machine learning method, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), combined with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Partial Dependence Plots (PDP) to investigate the impact of built environment factors on ride-hailing travel demand, including their non-linear and threshold effects. The findings reveal that dining facilities have the most significant impact, with a contribution rate of 30.75%, on predicting ride-hailing travel demand. Additionally, financial, corporate, and medical facilities also exert considerable influence. The built environment factors need to reach a certain threshold or within a certain range to maximize the impact of ride-hailing travel demand. population density, land use mix and distance to the subway station collectively influence ride-hailing demand. The results are helpful for TNCs to allocate network ride-hailing resources reasonably and effectively.

Accurate demand forecasting plays a critical role in most furniture businesses’ operational, tactical, and strategic decisions, as the demand in the furniture business is considered seasonal and becomes more complex in crises. In this work, a neural network model using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method was developed to forecast the demand for specific product groups. LSTM is a leading deep learning model for time series prediction, particularly seasonal, multi-item, and non-linear situations. The developed model was used to predict the demand based on old data before the Covid-19 pandemic and recent data of the first months of the pandemic as a fast response to the crisis. In addition, a comparison study was conducted between the developed model and the traditional planning inventory used by furniture businesses that provided us with the data. The results showed that the Covid-19 pandemic significantly impacted demand forecasting. Also, the fast response to Covid-19 pandemic has slightly increased the model performance. Finally, the comparison study demonstrated that our model is robust and better than the traditional demand forecasting method. Therefore, the developed model may help the business improve inventory and production planning to create a more flexible supply chain.

Various risks and uncertainties are strengthening the downside of the global economy. This paper aims to estimate the impact of US-China conflict and the WTO Appellate Body's shutdown on global logistics demand and to show the seriousness of the situation. Existing literature studies on protectionism or US-China trade conflict, with a focus on the effects of specific issues or impact on bilateral relations. No research has considered the adverse effects of the WTO Appellate Body's shutdown. This paper considers both US-China conflict and the installation of new NTBs in other countries due to weakened WTO function, and tries to suggest that the combination of tariffs and NTBs can severely reduce international trade and the demand for maritime logistics services, making this paper differs from previous studies. This paper suggests that a catastrophe could occur in global maritime logistics, based on quantitative estimates for the impact of global protectionism. Finally, underlining that the international trade order should not seriously be damaged, this paper proposes that countries around the world should seriously discuss this issue at the 12th WTO Trade Ministers' Meeting in Kazakhstan June 2020.

Hybrid forecasting methods have emerged as a solution surpassing the limitations of both statistical and deep learning approaches. While the first emphasize the significance of variables, they often produce worse forecasting results when compared to newer techniques. In contrast, deep learning models remain enigmatic "black boxes" in terms of interpretability, although achieving better results in forecasting. This article introduces the Comprehensive Cross-Correlation and Lagged Linear Regression Deep Learning (CCLR-DL) framework, designed to harness the best of both approaches, enhancing forecasting accuracy while retaining model interpretability through a feature selection process. CCLR-DL blens cross-correlation analysis, lagged multiple linear regression and granger's causality procedures with deep learning architectures based on LSTM. In a practical demonstration, CCLR-DL was applied to a real database of clinical visits associated to diagnoses in Catalonia, Spain (tracking a population of 6.3 million patients during 10 years). Predicting visits enables the healthcare managers to be ready for future demand shifts. Results demonstrate a consistent and substantial improvement over standalone statistical and deep learning methods when predicting healthcare demand. This hybrid approach not only showcases its efficacy but also offers a promising solution to the challenge of balancing predictive accuracy with model explicability. In this context, this work aims to design and validate a method for feature selection and forecasting of multivariate high dimensional time series datasets not only to improve prediction accuracy but also to model transparency by identifying a subset of variables that improve predictions and G-cause the target variable.

In this paper, we consider a make-to-order supply chain which satisfies demand that is dependent on both price and quoted lead -time. The manufacturer chooses the lead -time and the order quantity, and the retailer sets the revenue shares. The interactions between the manufacturer and the retailer are modelled as a Nash Game, and the existence and uniqueness of pure strategy equilibrium are demonstrated. A mechanism that enables the supply chain to coordinate the decisions of the members is developed. Lastly, we also analyze how the supply chain system parameters impact the optimal supply chain decisions and the supply chain performance.

Global demand for sleep-tracking wearables, or consumer sleep technologies (CSTs), is steadily increasing. CST marketing campaigns often feature a scientific component, but the scientific relevancy and monetary value of CST features within the sleep research community remains unquantified. Sleep medicine experts were recruited through social media and nonprobability sampling techniques to complete a survey identifying sleep metrics and device features that are most desirable to the scientific community. A hypothetical purchase task (HPT) estimated economic valuation for devices with different features by price. Forty-six (N=46) respondents with an average of 10±6 years’ experience conducting research in real-world settings completed the online survey. Total sleep time was ranked as the most important measure of sleep followed by objective sleep quality while sleep architecture/depth and diagnostic information were ranked as least important. Experts preferred wrist-worn devices that could reliably determine sleep episodes as short as 20 minutes. Economic value was greater for hypothetical devices with longer battery life. These data set a precedent to determine how scientific relevance of a product impacts the potential market value of a CST device. This is the first known attempt to establish consensus opinion or economic valuation for scientifically-desirable CST features and metrics using expert elicitation.

In this short note, the described step-by-step derivations of the industrial energy demand function from the production function framework and provided researchers with two specifications. Then we applied these theoretical specifications to the time series data as empirical analysis. We concluded that theories should be considered at the beginning of the empirical analyses but the data also should be allowed to speak freely. Hence, the main suggestion of this short note is that it would be a better strategy to consider the combination of theory-driven and data-driven approaches in the empirical analyses.

This work investigates how to balance the electricity supply and demand in a carbon-neutral northern Europe. Applying a cost-minimizing electricity system model including options to invest in eleven different flexibility measures, cost-efficient combinations of strategies to manage varia-tions are identified. The results of the model are post-processed using a novel method to map the net load before and after flexibility measures are applied to reveal the contribution of each flexi-bility measure. The net load is mapped in the space spanned by the amplitude, duration, and number of occur-rences. The mapping shows that, depending on cost structure, flexibility measures contribute to reduce the net load in three different ways; 1) by reducing variations of long duration but low amplitude, 2) by reducing variations of high amplitude but short duration and low occurrence or 3) by reducing variations of high amplitude, short duration and high occurrence. It is found that cost-efficient variation management is achieved by combining wind and solar power and by combining strategies (1-3) to manage variations. The cost-efficient combination of strategies de-pends on electricity system context where electricity trade, flexible hydrogen and heat production (1) manage the majority of variations in regions with good conditions for wind power while sta-tionary batteries (3) are the main contributors in regions with good conditions for solar power.

Background: As the opioid epidemic continues, understanding the geospatial, temporal and demand patterns is important for policymakers to assign resources and interdict individual, organization, and country-level bad actors. Methods: GIS geospatial-temporal analysis and extreme-gradient boosted random forests evaluate ICD-10 F11 opioid-related admissions and admission rates using geospatial analysis, demand analysis, and explanatory models, respectively. The period of analysis was January 2016 through September 2018. Results: The analysis shows existing high opioid admissions in Chicago and New Jersey with emerging areas in Atlanta, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. High rates of admission (claims per 10,000 population) exist in the Appalachian area and on the Northeastern seaboard. Explanatory models suggest that hospital overall workload and financial variables might be used for allocating opioid-related treatment funds effectively. Gradient-boosted random forest models accounted for 87.8% of the variability of claims on blinded 20% test data. Conclusions: Based on the GIS analysis, opioid admissions appear to have spread geographically, while higher frequency rates are still found in some regions. Interdiction efforts require demand-analysis such as that provided in this study to allocate scarce resources for supply-side and demand-side interdiction: prevention, treatment, and enforcement. Based on GIS analysis, the opioid epidemic is likely to spread or diffuse through the country, and interdiction efforts require demand-analysis such as that provided in this study to allocate scarce resources for supply-side and demand-side interdiction: prevention, treatment, and enforcement.

This paper examines an important problem in smart grid energy scheduling; peaks in power demand are proportionally more expensive to generate and provision for. The issue is exacerbated in local microgrids that do not benefit from the aggregate smoothing experienced by large grids. Demand-side scheduling can reduce these peaks by taking advantage of the fact that there is often flexibility in job start times. We focus attention on the case where the jobs are non-preemptible, meaning once started, they run to completion. The associated optimization problem is called the Peak Demand Minimization problem and has been previously shown to be NP-hard. Our results include an optimal fixed-parameter tractable algorithm, a polynomial-time approximation algorithm, as well as an effective heuristic that can also be used in an online setting of the problem. Simulation results show these methods can reduce peak demand by up to 50% versus on-demand scheduling for household power jobs.

In this paper we develop a forecasting algorithm for recurrent patterns in consumer demand. We study this problem in two different settings: pull and push models. We discuss several features of the algorithm concerning sampling, periodic approximation, denoising and forecasting.

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the global gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets. The article begins by discussing the increasing demand for gas and LNG, particularly in Asia, as countries aim to transition to cleaner sources of energy. It explores how market volatility has led to energy security interventions and lasting economic and emissions impacts. It then explores the global supply and demand dynamics, highlighting the structural change expected in the market and the competition between Europe and Asia for limited new LNG supply. The article also focuses on Europe's increased flexibility and dependence on LNG imports, which have risen by 60% to 121 million tonnes, offsetting lower Russian pipeline imports. Furthermore, the article delves into global supply and demand dynamics, how the market is expected to remain tight, and how record gas and LNG prices have led to demand reductions. Additionally, it analyzes the future outlook and investment needs, highlighting the continued uptake of gas in heavy-duty transport and the need for further investment to avoid a supply-demand gap. The article concludes with an analysis of the implications for the future of the global gas and LNG markets.

The kidney and the heart work together in balancing the body circulation and although their physiology is based on strict inter dependence, their performance fulfills different aims. While the heart can rapidly increase its own oxygen consumption to comply with the wide changes in metabolic demand linked to body function, the kidney physiology is primarily designed to maintain a stable metabolic rate and has limited capacity to cope with any steep increase in renal metabolism. In the kidneys the glomerular population filters a large amount of blood and the tubular system has been programmed to reabsorb 99% of filtrate by reabsorbing sodium together with other filtered substances including all glucose molecules. Glucose reabsorption involves the sodium-glucose cotransporters SGLT2 and SGLT1 on the apical membrane in the proximal tubular section; it also enhances bicarbonate formation so as to preserve the acid-base balance. The complex work of reabsorption in the kidney is the main factor in renal oxygen consumption; analysis of renal glucose transport in disease states is providing better understanding of the renal physiology changes that occur when clinical conditions alter the neurohormonal response leading to an increase in glomerular filtration pressure. In this circumstance glomerular hyperfiltration occurs, imposing a higher metabolic demand on kidney physiology and causing progressive renal impairment. Albumin urination is the warning signal of renal engagement over-exertion and most frequently heralds heart failure development, regardless of disease etiology. The review analyzes the mechanisms linked to renal oxygen consumption, focusing on sodium-glucose management.

Cold chain logistics of Agricultural Products demand forecasting can provide the scientific basis for the country to formulate logistics strategy, which further promotes the development of social economy and the improvement of living standards in China. In this paper, a new mathematical combined model is proposed to Agricultural Products Demand. Shandong, one of a China’s province, serves as the main producer and distributor of agricultural products. Based on the index system created from multiple related factors influencing cold chain logistics demand of agricultural products in Shandong, this paper employs principal component analysis to reduce the dimension of various indexes and predicts principal components with time series. Thereafter, multiple linear regression model and neural network model were constructed to forecast the cold chain logistics demand of agricultural products in Shandong, and their combined forecast models were compared. What's more, the paper provides insight for reference and decision-making concerning the development of cold chain logistics industry of agricultural products in Shandong province.

The case for demand-driven research and development has received important considerations among governments, donors and programme implementing partners in development planning and implementation. Addressing demand is believed to be a bottom-top approach for designing and responding to development priorities and is good for achieving development outcomes. In this paper, we discuss the concept and application of demand driven research for development (DDRD) in Africa. We use evidence of six projects implemented under the BiomassWeb Project in Africa. We focus on parameters on level of engagement of stakeholders - whose demand is being articulated, the processes for demand articulation, capacity building and implementation processes, innovativeness of the project, reporting and sustainability of the project. We find that the nature of the institutions involved in articulation and implementation of demand-driven research and development projects and their partnerships influence the impact and reporting of demand-driven projects.

PM-Gati-Shakti Initiative, integration of ministries, including railways, ports, waterways, logistic infrastructure, mass transport, airports, and roads. Aimed at enhancing connectivity and bolstering the competitiveness of Indian businesses, the initiative focuses on six pivotal pillars known as "Connectivity for Productivity": comprehensiveness, prioritization, optimization, synchronization, analytical, and dynamic. In this study, we explore the application of these pillars to address the problem of "Maximum Demand Forecasting in Delhi." Electricity forecasting plays a very significant role in the power grid as it is required to maintain a balance between supply and load demand at all times, to provide a quality electricity supply, for Financial planning, generation reserve, and many more. Forecasting helps not only in Production Planning but also in Scheduling like Import / Export which is very often in India and mostly required by the rural areas and North Eastern Regions of India. As Electrical Forecasting includes many factors which cannot be detected by the models out there, We use Classical Forecasting Techniques to extract the seasonal patterns from the daily data of Maximum Demand for the Union Territory Delhi. This research contributes to the power supply industry by helping to reduce the occurrence of disasters such as blackouts, power cuts, and increased tariffs imposed by regulatory commissions. The forecasting techniques can also help in reducing OD and UD of Power for different regions. We use the Data provided by a department from the Ministry of Power and use different forecast models including Seasonal forecasts for daily data.

This study purposes the use of plug-in electric vehicles for demand side management (DSM) considering uncertainties in demand as well as uncertainties due to mobility of PEV to mitigate peak demand. The solution also seeks to reduce electric cost in addition to reducing the effects of greenhouse gases. In recent years DSM using distributed storage system such as battery energy management system (BESS) and plugged-in electric vehicles (PEV) have become very prevalent with most implementations resorting to deterministic load forecast. These methods do not consider the potential growth in demand making their solutions less robust. In this study we propose a real-time density demand forecast and stochastic optimization for robust operation of PEV for a building. This method accounts for demand uncertainties in addition to uncertainties in mobile energy storage as found in PEV, making the resulting solution robust as compared to the deterministic case. A case study on a real site in South Korea is used for verification and testing. The proposed study is verified and tested against existing algorithms. The result verifies the effectiveness of the proposed approach

A Demand-side management technique are deployed along with battery energy-storage systems (BESSs) to lower the electricity cost by mitigating the peak load of a building. Most of the existing methods rely on manual operation of the BESS, or even an elaborate building energy-management system resorting to a deterministic method that is susceptible to unforeseen growth in demand. In this study we propose a real-time optimal operating strategy for BESS based on density demand forecast and stochastic optimization. This method takes into consideration uncertainties in demand when accounting for an optimal BESS schedule, making it robust compared to the deterministic case. The proposed method is verified and tested against existing algorithms. Data obtained from a real site in South Korea is used for verification and testing. The results show that the proposed method is effective, even for the cases where the forecasted demand deviates from the observed demand

The primary attraction of IaaS is providing elastic resources on demand. It becomes imperative that IaaS-users have an effective methodology for learning what resources they require, how many resources and for how long they need. However, the heterogeneity of resources, the diversity resource demands of different cloud applications and the variation of application-user behaviors pose IaaS-users big challenge. In this paper, we purpose a unified resource demand forecasting model suiting for different applications, various resources and diverse time-varying workload patterns. With the model, taking input from parameterized applications, resources and workload scenarios, the corresponding resources demands during any time interval can be deduced as output. The experiments configure concrete functions and parameters to help understanding the above model.

Copper demand for a country's copper industry has a greater pull effect. China's copper consumption in 2015 has accounted for 50% of the world. The scientific forecast of China's copper demands trend is also an important basis for analyzing its future environmental impact. This paper assumes that China's economy will be developing high, medium and low scenarios, and forecasts economic and social indicators such as total GDP, population and per capita GDP in China from 2016 to 2030. Then, predicted the demand of copper resources in China from 2016 to 2030 by the combination of system dynamics model, vector autoregressive moving average model and inverted U-type empirical model. The results show that: (1) in 2020, 2025 and 2030, China's refined copper demand will be 13 Mt, 15 Mt and 15.5 Mt. (2) China's copper demand growth slowed down significantly from 2016-2030. (3) 2025-2030, China's copper resource demand is stable, into the platform of demand growth, the highest peak value in 2027 will be 15.5 Mt. (4) 2030 years later, China's copper resource demand will enter a slow decline.

In the context of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, in order to achieve low carbon emissions and promote the efficient utilization of wind energy, hydrogen energy as an important energy carrier is proposed to mix hydrogen and natural gas to form hydrogen enriched compressed natu-ral gas (HCNG). It is also injected into the natural gas pipeline network to realize the transmission and utilization of hydrogen energy. At the same time, the participation of demand response is considered, the load peak and trough period is adjusted, and large-scale consumption of renewa-ble energy and the reduction of carbon emissions are realized. First of all, a fine model of hydro-gen production and hydrogen use equipment is established to analyze the impact of adding hy-drogen mixing on the economy and low-carbon of the system. With green certificates and demand response, the utilization rate of hydrogen energy is improved to further explore the energy utiliza-tion rate and emission reduction capacity of the system. Secondly, on the basis of modeling, the optimal scheduling strategy is proposed with the sum of energy purchase cost, equipment opera-tion cost, carbon emission cost, wind curtailment cost and green certificate income as the lowest objective function. Considering the constraints such as hydrogen blending ratio and flexible load ratio of the pipeline network, a low-carbon economic scheduling model of hydrogen mixed natu-ral gas was established. The model was linearized and solved by using MATLAB and CPLEX solver. By comparing different scenarios, the superiority of the model and the effectiveness of the strategy are verified.

In this paper we compare the effects of forecasting demand using individual (disaggregated) components versus first aggregating the components either fully or into several clusters. Demand streams are assumed to follow autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. Using individual demand streams will always lead to a superior forecast compared to any aggregates, however we show that if several aggregated clusters are formed in a structured manner then these subaggregated clusters will lead to a forecast with minimal increase in mean-squared forecast error. We show this result based on theoretical MSFE obtained directly from the models generating the clusters as well as estimated MSFE obtained directly from simulated demand observations. We suggest a pivot-algorithm, that we call Pivot Clustering, to create these clusters. We also provide theoretical results to investigate sub-aggregation, including for special cases such as, aggregating MA(1) streams and ARMA streams with similar or same parameters.

Energy demand forecasting is a fundamental aspect of modern energy management. It impacts resource planning, economic stability, environmental sustainability, and energy security. This importance is making it critical for countries worldwide, particularly in cases like Türkiye, where the energy dependency ratio is notably high. The goal of this study is to propose ensemble machine learning methods such as boosting, bagging, blending, and stacking with hyperparameter tuning and k-fold cross-validation, and investigate the application of these methods for predicting Türkiye's energy demand. This study utilizes population, GDP per capita, imports and exports as input parameters based on historical data from 1979 to 2021 in Türkiye. Eleven combinations of all predictor variables were analyzed, and the best one was selected. It was observed that a very high correlation exists among population, GDP, imports, exports, and energy demand. In the first phase, the preliminary performance was investigated of 19 different machine learning algorithms using 5-fold cross-validation and measured their performance using five different metrics: MSE, RMSE, MAE, R-squared, and MAPE. Secondly, ensemble models were constructed by utilizing individual machine learning algorithms, and the performance of these ensemble models was compared with both each other and the best-performing individual machine learning algorithm. The analysis of the results revealed that placing Ridge as the meta-learner and using ET, RF and Ridge as the base learners in the stacking ensemble model produced superior results compared to the other models across performance metrics. It is anticipated that the findings of this research can be applied globally and prove valuable for energy policy planning in any country. The results obtained not only highlight the accuracy and effectiveness of our predictive model but also underscore the broader implications of this study within the framework of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The growing number of the accessed energy-efficient frequency conversion air conditioners is likely to generate a large number of harmonics on the power grid. The following shortage in the reactive power of peak load may trigger voltage collapse. Hence, this conflicts with people’s expectations for a cozy environment. Concerning the problems mentioned above, an active management scheme is put forward to balance the electricity use and the normal operation of air conditioning systems. To be specific, schemes to suppress the low voltage ride through (LVRT) and harmonic are designed firstly. Then to deaden the adverse effects caused by nonlinear group load running on the grid, and to prevent the unexpected accidents engendered from grid malfunction, the dynamic sensing information obtained by an online monitor is analyzed, which can be seen as an actively supervise mechanism. The combined application of active and passive filtering technology is studied as well. Thirdly, the new energy storage is accessed reliably to cope with peak-cutting or grid breaking emergencies, and the fuzzy control algorithm is researched. Finally, system feasibility is verified by functional modules co-operation simulation, and active management target is achieved under scientific and reasonable state-of-charge (SOC) management strategy.

The world is progressing towards a more advanced society where end-consumers have access to local renewable-based generation and advanced forms of information and technology. Hence, it is in a current state of transition between the traditional approach to power generation and distribution, where end-consumers of electricity have typically been inactive in their involvement with energy markets and a new approach that integrates their active participation. This new approach includes the use of distributed energy resources (DER) such as renewable-based generations and demand response (DR), which are being rapidly adopted by end-consumers, where incentives are strong. This paper presents the role of DR aggregator to effectively integrate DER technologies as a new source of energy capacity, into the electricity networks using information communication technology and industry knowledge. This framework based on DR aggregators will facilitate renewable energy integration and customer engagement in electricity market efficiently. To this aim, advantages and disadvantages of DR aggregators are discussed in this paper from political, economic, social and technological (PEST) point of views. Based on this analysis, a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis for a typical DR aggregator is presented.

The paper proposes a game theory model of price oligopoly with a heterogeneous product, where total demand depends linearly on the minimum market price. This model develops the Bertrand oligopoly for the case of imperfect price elasticity of demand. The most interesting result is an asymmetric Nash equilibrium with different prices and sales in the situation of symmetric oligopolists. The asymmetry is explained by the fact that a decrease in the minimum market price leads not only to a reallocation of consumers among firms, but also to an increase in total demand. Modifications of a two-stage game with a leader and followers and the price discrimination model are also considered. Microeconomic substantiation of the model is given on the basis of the spatial differentiation approach.

This research work aims to develop a mathematical modeling for production-inventory systems. Two mathematical models are present: An infinite dimensional, partial differential equation (PDE), production level modeling is present and a finite dimensional system for a coupled dynamic pricing, production rate and inventory level ordinary differential equations (ODE), integrating a proper Lyapunov stability analysis of the dynamical system and simulations.

As traditional supply chains face increasingly severe environmental issues and countries promote green development and sustainable development policy concepts, cultivating green supply chain operation models is gradually being highly valued by current governments and enterprises. Generally speaking, the production of green products incurs higher additional costs and thus their total production costs also increase. In this work, the product green level is related to the random demand. Under the green supply chain buy-back contract with the green product R&D cost sharing between the manufacturer and the retailer, both the product green level and the order quantity need to be decided to maximize the channel profit. In order to coordinate the green supply chain, the manufacturer needs to share both the risk of good salvage and the green product R&D cost with the retailer. We find that both the wholesale price and buy-back price increase in the manufacturer’s proposition of the green product R&D cost, but decrease in emission reduction efficiency coefficient or carbon trading price. In addition, the product green level, the optimal order quantity and the channel profit increase in emission reduction efficiency coefficient, but decrease in the R&D cost coefficient of the product green level. Interestingly, we find that if the carbon trading price is low, the manufacturer will set a low product green level and the product carbon emission trading is a cost for the supply chain. The increment of the carbon trading price leads to a higher cost such that the channel profit is decreased. However, if the carbon trading price is high, the manufacturer will set a high product green level and the product carbon emission trading is a revenue for the supply chain. The increment of the carbon trading price leads to a higher revenue such that the channel profit is increased.

This study focuses on the decisions of picking, inventory, ripening, delivering, and selling mangoes in a harvesting season. Demand, supply, and prices are uncertain, and their probability density functions are fitted based on actual trading data collected from the largest spot market in Taiwan. A stochastic programming model is formulated to minimize the expected cost under the considerations of labor, storage space, shelf life, and transportation restrictions. We implement the sample-average approximation to obtain a high-quality solution of the stochastic program. The analysis compares deterministic and stochastic solutions to assess the uncertain effect on the harvest decisions. Finally, the optimal harvest schedule of each mango type is suggested based on the stochastic program solution.

Building energy consumption plays an essential role in urban sustainability. The prediction of the energy demand is also of particular importance for developing smart cities and urban planning. Machine learning has recently contributed to the advancement of methods and technologies to predict demand and consumption for building energy systems. This paper presents a state of the art of machine learning models and evaluates the performance of these models. Through a systematic review and a comprehensive taxonomy, the advances of machine learning are carefully investigated and promising models are introduced.

Τhe building automation control is a crucial factor for improving buildings energy efficiency and management, as well as improving the electricity grid's reliability indices. This paper presents the methodology, describes the necessary technology requirements and presents the decentralized building automation novel algorithm for Efficient demand side management in a building. All these are applied in an experimental university microgrid and the results are presented in terms of energy saving in kWh, money in € and working hours.

In this paper, particular attention is paid to an advanced variant of the plug-in hybrid engine, known as PHEV, which combines two functionalities: the vehicle's internal combustion engine (ICEV) and the electric engine (BEV). The paper also presents the assumptions of the DEVS model, which allows for the estimation of vehicle’s energy consumption. The study described herein also presents the influence of factors such as ambient temperature and constant speed on the PHEV’s energy consumption. It has been shown that the vehicle’s range estimated based on its electronic control module (ECU) is about 20% shorter per annum on average for its year-round operation in every-day driving conditions. When analyzing the energy consumption based on the vehicle’s unit energy consumption model, attention was paid to values that are strongly correlated with the traffic volume and weather conditions affecting the moving vehicle. In addition, the authors emphasized that the estimated total energy consumption of an electric (BEV) or hybrid (PHEV) vehicle, relative to the normative values arising from the type approval test cycle, deviate from the actual values arising from real driving conditions and often vary substantially. In extreme cases, the actual range of a hybrid vehicle is 75% shorter.

We have modelled the energy consumption of prototype and real buildings under present and future climatic conditions with the EnergyPlus model to develop a better understanding of the relationship between changing climate conditions and energy demand. We have produced detailed meteorological information with 50 meters of spatial resolution through dynamical downscaling process combining regional, urban and computational fluid dynamics models which include the effects of the buildings on urban wind patterns. The city of Madrid has been chosen for our experiment. The impact on energy demand and their respective economic cost are calculated for year 2100 versus 2011 based on two IPCC climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 (stabilization of emissions) and RCP 8.5 (not reduction of emissions). Findings show that climate change will have a significant impact on the energy demand for buildings. Space heating demand will be increased by the RCP 4.5 and cooling demand will be increased for the RCP 8.5 in the analysed buildings.

This paper investigates the use of deep learning techniques to perform energy demand forecasting. Specifically, the authors have adapted a deep neural network originally thought for image classification and composed of a convolutional neural network (CNN) followed by a multilayered fully connected artificial neural network (ANN). The convolutional part of the network was fed with a grid of temperature forecasting data distributed in the area of interest in order to extract a featured temperature. The subsequent ANN is then fed with this calculated temperature along with other data related to the timing of the forecast. The proposed structure was first trained and then used in a real setting aimed to provide the French energy demand forecast using ARPEGE forecasting weather data. The results show that the performance of this approach is in the line of the performance provided by the reference RTE subscription-based service, which opens the possibility to obtain high accuracy forecasting using widely accessible deep learning techniques through open-source machine learning platforms.

The deepening of electricity reform results in increasingly frequent auctions and the surge of generators, it becomes difficult to analyze generators’ behaviors. Since it’s hard to find analytical market equilibriums, approximate equilibriums were obtained instead in previous studies by market simulations, which are strict to initial estimations and simulation results are chaotic in some cases. In this paper, a multi-unit power bidding model is proposed to reveal the bidding mechanism under clearing pricing rule by employing auction approach, for which initial estimations are non-essential. Normalized bidding price is introduced to construct generator's price-related bidding strategy. Nash equilibriums are derived depend on the marginal cost and the winning probability which are computed from bidding quantity, transmission cost and demand distribution. Furthermore, we propose a comparative analysis to explore the impact of uncertain elastic demand on the performance of the electricity market. The result indicates that, there exists market power among generators leading to social welfare decreases even under competitive conditions but elastic demand is an effective way to restrain generators’ market power. The feasibility of the models is verified by a case study. Our work provides decision support for generators and a direction for improving market efficiency.

Agricultural productivity is expected to decrease under changing climate conditions that correspond to the stability of West African food systems. Although numerous studies evaluated food production gaps or impacts of climate variability on crop yields, many uncertainties are associated with climate extremes, but also rapid population growth and the corresponding dietary lifestyle determine farming activities. Here, we present a food supply and demand analysis based on the relationship between climate change, crop production, as well as population growth in three experimental sites from southwestern Burkina Faso to southwestern Ghana. The method consists of a tiered approach that encompassed a statistical analysis of historical climate as well as agricultural time series using boxplots and a trend test by Mann-Kendall. Food balance sheets were calculated by estimating the demand using a population growth model linked to food supply with local consumption patterns. Results of the boxplot analysis revealed for the majority of climate time series light to strong right-skewed distributions with either a few heavy rainfall or hot temperature events. We found almost insignificant rainfall and temperature trends for both sites in the Sudano-Guinean savannah. The rainfall regime of southwestern Ghana indicated an insignificant upward or downward trend while the temperature significantly increased over time. Crop yield boxplots demonstrated mainly right-skewed distributions for cereals, legumes and tubers as well as cash crops such as cotton. Backed by the Mann-Kendall test, maize and sorghum significantly enhanced in both study areas of the Sudano-Guinean savannah. Southwestern Ghana depicted a different crop pattern where cassava and plantain showed a strong upward trend at a confidence level of 1%. The grouped food balances sheets across the regions illustrated a surplus for the Sudano-Guinean savannah ranging from 221.2 megatons (Mt) to 4,846.77 Mt while southwestern Ghana exhibited a deficit between -193.33 Mt and -16,188.82 Mt. Despite a growing yield of various crops, food demand outpaces the regional production. Hence, it is recommended to focus on a larger array of commodities, imports and marketing of farm products.

This paper provides an optimization strategy for flexible operation at the system level, so as to guide the real-time flexible ramping of the power grid. Firstly, the concept of regional power grid flexibility was clarified, and the ramping factor is proposed as a flexibility metric. On this basis, taking the output priority of each node as the objective function and considering constraints such as line flow, power balance, and system flexibility, a mathematical model for regional power grid transmitting flexible power externally is proposed. Compare with the traditional models, this model focuses more on flexibility rather than economy. The case analysis based on the improved IEEE 30-Bus System verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed strategy and its advantages over the traditional models.

Retail buildings can provide energy flexibility to the grid with the possibility of load shifting and building automation systems. Demand response is a collective innovation in the smart grid domain. Various stakeholders should be involved in the demand response activities to ensure the success. The owners or senior management of retail buildings need to consider the stakeholders who are directly influenced by the demand response participation, e.g. customers and employees. Meanwhile, demand response activities are influenced by various factors, such as energy market structure, policy, etc. Therefore, this paper investigates the demand response readiness for retail buildings with three aspects: energy control preferences, stakeholder engagement, and cross-national differences. A questionnaire is designed and collected with store managers in Denmark (N=51) and the Philippines (N=36). The result shows that: 1) retail stores are much readier to participate in the implicit demand response by manual energy control compared to the utility control or building automation. Meanwhile, store managers have significant concerns about business activities and indoor lighting compared to other aspects; 2) the statistically significant influential factors for retail stores to participate in the demand response are related to whether the DR participation matches the company goals, influences business operation, and whether retail stores are lack of related knowledge; 3) retail stores believe that stakeholders should be informed about the DR activities but not involved in; 4) there are significant differences regarding the energy control preferences and concerns between retail stores in Denmark and the Philippines, but no significant difference regarding the stakeholder engagement.

Demand response flexible loads can provide fast regulation and ancillary services as reserve capacity in power systems. This paper proposes a joint optimization dispatch control strategy for source-load system with stochastic renewable power injection and flexible thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Specifically, the optimization model is characterized by a chance constraint look-ahead programming to maximal the social welfare of both units and load agents. By solving the chance constraint optimization with sample average approximation (SAA) method, the optimal power scheduling for units and TCL/PEV agents can be obtained. Secondly, two demand response control algorithms for TCLs and PEVs are proposed respectively based on the aggregate control models of the load agents. The TCLs are controlled by its temperature setpoints and PEVs are controlled by its charging power such that the DR control objective can be fulfilled. The effectiveness of the proposed dispatch and control algorithm has been demonstrated by the simulation studies on a modified IEEE 39 bus system with a wind farm, a photovoltaic power station, two TCL agents and two PEV agents.

As the world grapples with the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a sudden and abrupt change in global energy landscape. Traditional fossil fuels that serve as the linchpin of the modern civilization have found their consumption rapidly fell across the most categories due to strict lockdown and stringent measures that have been adopted to suppress the disease. These changes consequently steered various environmental benefits across the world in recent time. The present article is an attempt to investigate these environmental benefits and reversals that have been materialized in this unfolding situation due to reduced consumption of fossil fuels. Life cycle assessment tool has been used hereby to evaluate nine environmental impacts and one energy based impact. These impacts include: ozone formation (terrestrial ecosystems), terrestrial acidification, freshwater eutrophication, marine eutrophication, terrestrial ecotoxicity, freshwater ecotoxicity, marine ecotoxicity, land use, mineral resources scarcity and cumulative exergy demand. Outcomes from the study demonstrate that COVID-19 has delivered impressive changes in global environment and life cycle exergy demand with about 11-25% curtailment in all above-mentioned impacts in 2020 in comparison to their corresponding readings in 2019.

Predicting the growth response of seedlings from the environmental responses of photosynthesis and metabolism may be improved by considering the dynamics of non-structural carbohydrate, NSC, over a diurnal cycle. Attenuation of growth metabolism when NSC content is low could explain why some NSC is conserved through the night. A dynamic model, incorporating diurnal variation in NSC, was developed to simulate growth of seedlings hour-by-hour. I compared predictions of this model to published growth and NSC data for seedlings that varied according to temperature, light, day length, or CO₂. Prolonged-darkness experiments showed a temperature dependent upper limit on the respiration capacity. Respiration was attenuated as NSC was depleted. Furthermore, when NSC was high at dawn, inhibition of photosynthesis could attenuate the accumulation of NSC under low temperature, or high light, or high CO₂. These concepts were used to simulate plant metabolism and growth rates and diurnal variation of NSC in tomato seedlings under two light levels and various temperatures. Comparison of other results using the same model parameters showed the dynamic model could predict results for starch and starch-less plants, and when growth was affected by CO₂ enrichment and day length.

Following electrification of automotive transport, studies on the penetration of Electric Vehicles (EVs) are widespread, especially in defined contexts, e.g. cities. As major transport hubs, airports fall within contexts worth of interest. In this work, a forecast of the demand for electric mobility in an Italian international airport (Rome, Fiumicino) is presented. First, a wide review of proposed sce-narios on the penetration of EVs at international and national level and available data on local automotive transport are presented, as preliminary study for the definition of reference scenarios for the local context. Then the methodology proposed is presented and applied to the specific case study. Finally, a preliminary sizing of the required charging infrastructure is reported. The proposed approach can be considered as reference for similar studies on electrical mobility in other airport areas around the world.

The forecast of electricity demand has been a recurrent research topic for decades, due to its economical and strategic relevance. Several Machine Learning (ML) techniques have evolved in parallel with the complexity of the electric grid. This paper reviews a wide selection of approaches that have used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to forecast electricity demand, aiming to help newcomers and experienced researchers to appraise the common practices and to detect areas where there is room for improvement in the face of the current widespread deployment of smart meters and sensors, which yields an unprecedented amount of data to work with. The review looks at the specific problems tackled by each one of the selected papers, at the results attained by their algorithms, and at the strategies followed to validate and compare the results. This way, it is possible to highlight some peculiarities and algorithm configurations that seem to consistently outperform others in specific settings.

In large infrastructures such as dams, which have a relatively high economic value, ensuring the proper operation of the associated hydraulic facilities in different operating conditions is of utmost importance. To ensure the correct and successful operation of the dam's hydraulic equipment and prevent possible damages, including gates and downstream tunnel, to build laboratory models and perform some tests are essential (the advancement of the smart sensors based on artificial intelligence is essential). One of the causes of damage to dam bottom outlets is cavitation in downstream and between the gates, which can impact on dam facilities, and air aeration can be a solution to improve it. In the present study, six dams in different provinces in Iran has been chosen to evaluate the air entrainment in the downstream tunnel experimentally. Three artificial neural networks (ANN) based machine learning (ML) algorithms are used to model and predict the air aeration in the bottom outlet. The proposed models are trained with genetic algorithms (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), i.e., ANN-GA, ANN-PSO, and ANFIS-PSO. Two hydrodynamic variables, namely volume rate and opening percentage of the gate, are used as inputs into all bottom outlet models. The results showed that the most optimal model is ANFIS-PSO to predict the dependent value compared with ANN-GA and ANN-PSO. The importance of the volume rate and opening percentage of the dams' gate parameters is more effective for suitable air aeration.

In this paper, we study the performance of various deep reinforcement learning algorithms to enhance the energy management system of a microgrid. We propose a novel microgrid model that consists of a wind turbine generator, an energy storage system, a set of thermostatically controlled loads, a set of price-responsive loads, and a connection to the main grid. The proposed energy management system is designed to coordinate among the different flexible sources by defining the priority resources, direct demand control signals, and electricity prices. Seven deep reinforcement learning algorithms were implemented and are empirically compared in this paper. The numerical results show that the deep reinforcement learning algorithms differ widely in their ability to converge to optimal policies. By adding an experience replay and a semi-deterministic training phase to the well-known asynchronous advantage actor-critic algorithm, we achieved the highest model performance as well as convergence to near-optimal policies.

On 2013 the Villonaco wind farm (16.5 MW), the first wind farm in continental Ecuador near the city of Loja, began operations. The power generated is delivered to the National Interconnected System (SNI), which services the city. This research confronts two sets of real data, the electricity use of the urban area of Loja, and the power generated by the Villonaco Wind Farm. Electricity use follows clearly defined daily and weekly cycles, and wind power has a seasonal behaviour. The study shows that wind power integration cannot be a long-term stable power source regardless power or generation surplus. Another essential finding is that time series can be used as a statistical source to determine the need for short- (seconds) and long- (days, weeks) term energy storage. Strategies to further the energy autonomy of the urban area through the expansion of the wind farm by a factor of 2 are discussed.

In the present study, a hybrid optimizing algorithm has been proposed using Genetic Algorithm (GA)and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to improve the estimation of electricity demand of the state of Tamil Nadu in India. The GA-PSO model optimizes the coefficients of factors of gross state domestic product (GSDP) , electricity consumption per capita, income growth rate and consumer price index (CPI) that affect the electricity demand. Based on historical data of 25 years from 1991 till 2015 , the simulation results of GA-PSO models are having greater accuracy and reliability than single optimization methods based on either PSO or GA. The forecasting results of ANN-GA-PSO are better than models based on single optimization such as ANN-BP, ANN-GA, ANN-PSO models. Further the paper also forecasts the electricity demand of Tamil Nadu based on two scenarios. First scenario is the "as-it-is" scenario , the second scenario is based on milestones set for achieving goals of "Vision 2023" document for the state. The present research also explores the causality between the economic growth and electricity demand in case of Tamil Nadu. The research indicates that a direct causality exists between GSDP and the electricity demand of the state.

In the present study, a hybrid optimizing algorithm has been proposed using Genetic Algorithm (GA)and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to improve the estimation of electricity demand of the state of Tamil Nadu in India. The GA-PSO model optimizes the coefficients of factors of gross state domestic product (GSDP) , electricity consumption per capita, income growth rate and consumer price index (CPI) that affect the electricity demand. Based on historical data of 25 years from 1991 till 2015, the simulation results of GA-PSO models are having greater accuracy and reliability than single optimization methods based on either PSO or GA. The forecasting results of ANN-GA-PSO are better than models based on single optimization such as ANN-BP, ANN-GA, ANN-PSO models. Further the paper also forecasts the electricity demand of Tamil Nadu based on two scenarios. First scenario is the “as-it-is” scenario, the second scenario is based on milestones set for achieving goals of “Vision 2023” document for the state. The present research also explores the causality between the economic growth and electricity demand in case of Tamil Nadu. The research indicates that a direct causality exists between GSDP and the electricity demand of the state.

In the traditional power system, customers respond to their primary electricity consumption pattern based on price or incentive to take additional advantages. By developing energy hubs (EHs) where electricity, heat, natural gas and other forms of energy are coupled together, all types of energy customers even the inelastic loads can participate in demand response (DR) program. This novel vision has led to the concept of "integrated demand response (IDR)". IDR programs (IDRPs) in EHs involve coordinating multiple DR activities across different energy systems, such as buildings, industrial complexes, and transportation networks. The main purpose of IDR is that multi-energy users can respond not only by shifting or reducing energy consumption from the demand side, but also by changing the type of energy consumed, in response to the dispatching center. The integration of IDRPs in EHs can help to reduce energy costs, improve grid stability, and increase the penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) in the power system. Moreover, by synchronizing DR activities across different energy systems, IDRPs can provide additional benefits, such as improved energy efficiency, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and increased resilience to power outages and other disruptions. In this paper, we provide a review, assessment, and classification of fundamental principles, modeling techniques and optimization methods for IDR programs in EHs.

Electricity demand prediction is vital for energy production management and proper exploitation of the present resources. Recently, several novel machine learning (ML) models have been employed for electricity demand prediction to estimate the future prospects of the energy requirements. The main objective of this study is to review the various ML models applied for electricity demand prediction. Through a novel search and taxonomy, the most relevant original research articles in the field are identified and further classified according to the ML modeling technique, perdition type, and the application area. A comprehensive review of the literature identifies the major ML models, their applications and a discussion on the evaluation of their performance. This paper further makes a discussion on the trend and the performance of the ML models. As the result, this research reports an outstanding rise in the accuracy, robustness, precision and the generalization ability of the prediction models using the hybrid and ensemble ML algorithms.

Consumers are attracted by the increasing number of available SVOD platforms, but subscribing to all of them would be too expensive. To reduce costs, consumers could combine the use of proprietary subscriptions, non-proprietary subscriptions, and illegal streaming sites. In turn, platforms could enforce access control, a decision that could produce the desired reduction in non-proprietary subscriptions but also an undesired reduction in proprietary subscriptions. The effects of this decision and the determinants of SVOD content demand remain largely unexplored. We propose a baseline model where the SVOD content demand is driven by variety seeking, household financial situation, ethical evaluation, and social norms, as well as a change model where the subscription variation is driven by users’ trait reactance and perceived fairness of the decision. We conducted a survey on the current ways of SVOD content consumption and the responses to a hypothetical access control enforcement, with four randomized versions of the authentication mode. Results confirmed many of the proposed determinants and showed a noteworthy reduction in proprietary subscriptions due to the control enforcement but no effect due to the authentication modes. All these findings may help improve future models on SVOD content consumption and better address the difficult challenge of converting unauthorized users into authorized ones.

Due to the imbalance between the supply and demand of oxygen, the oxygen system of iron- and steel-making enterprises in China has problems with high oxygen emission and high pressure in the pipelines, resulting in the energy consumption of oxygen production being high. To relieve this problem, using a large-scale iron- and steel-making mill as a case study, the research on demand forecasting and optimal scheduling of the oxygen system was carried out. The ARIMA model and the GABP model are employed to forecast oxygen demand. Based on the forecast results, an optimal scheduling model for the oxygen system was developed to conduct optimal scheduling. The case study shows that based on the oxygen demand forecast and the optimal scheduling, the oxygen emission and the pipeline pressure in the studied iron- and steel-making enterprise can be significantly reduced, thereby achieving considerable energy-saving effects and economic benefits. Specifically, the following conclusions are obtained: (1) For the oxygen demand forecast, the prediction accuracy of the GABP model is better than that of the ARIMA model. The average MAPE of the 12 sets of data of the ARIMA and GABP models are 23.8% and 20.2%, respectively. (2) By comparing the scheduling results and the field data, it is found that after the scheduling, the amount of oxygen emission has decreased by 6.32%, the pipeline pressure has decreased by 0.61%, and the energy consumption of oxygen compression has decreased by 1.6%. Considering both the oxygen emission loss and the energy consumption of oxygen compression, the total power consumption of the oxygen system is reduced by 1.38%, which saves the electricity cost of about 9.03 million RMB per year.

The Internet of Things (IoT) is experiencing exponential growth, revolutionizing various industries with its ability to connect devices and enable advanced applications. In the realm of energy production, IoT offers significant potential for optimizing processes and improving efficiency. This study presents a comprehensive monitoring and energy management strategy for the University of Cuenca's microgrid photovoltaic (PV) system, utilizing IoT and ThingSpeak as key technologies. The proposed strategy leverages intelligent environments and utilizes ThingSpeak as a robust platform for data presentation and analysis. By integrating IoT devices and sensors, real-time monitoring of PV system parameters such as solar radiation and temperature is achieved. The collected data is then analyzed using advanced algorithms and visualized through ThingSpeak, enabling effective energy management and decision-making. The developed monitoring system was rigorously tested in a laboratory microgrid setting, where the PV system is interconnected with other generation and storage systems, as well as the electrical grid. Through the seamless integration of these components, the monitoring system provides enhanced visibility and control over the microgrid's energy production. The results demonstrate the successful implementation of the monitoring system, showcasing its ability to improve the supervision, automation, and analysis of daily energy production. By leveraging IoT technologies and ThingSpeak, stakeholders can access real-time data, analyze performance trends, and optimize energy resources.

The selectin of a demand forecasting method is critical for companies aiming to avoid manufacturing overproduction or shortages in pursuit of sustainable development. Various qualitative and quantitative criteria with different weights must be considered during the evaluation of a forecasting method. The qualitative criteria and criteria weights are usually assessed in linguistic terms. Aggregating these various criteria and linguistic weights for evaluating and selecting demand forecasting methods in sustainable manufacturing is a major challenge. This paper proposes an extension of fuzzy Elimination and Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE) I to resolve this problem. In the proposed method, fuzzy weighted ratings are defuzzified with the signed distance to develop a crisp ELECTRE I model. Moreover, an extension to ELECTRE I is developed by suggesting an extended modified discordance matrix and a closeness coefficient for ranking alternatives. The proposed extension can overcome the problem of information loss which can lead to incorrect ranking result when using the Hadamard product to combine concordance and modified discordance matrices. A comparison is conducted to show the advantage of the proposed extension. Finally, a numerical example is used to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method; furthermore, a numerical comparison is made to display the advantage of the proposed method.

Energy imports and the transition to renewable energy sources are of critical importance in the current geopolitical context, which necessitates concrete actions to tackle the energy crisis at the European Union level. The study aims to explore the impact of imported non-renewable energy resources on the EU-27 economy. It examines the correlations and causal relationships between GDP, GVA, R&D investments, and energy imports from 2000 to 2021. Data normality was assessed using the Shapiro-Wilk test, while Pearson's test identified correlations between variables. Linear and multiple regression analyses were conducted to determine the effects of changes in independent variables on dependent variables. The study found a strong association between natural gas imports and GDP, with increases in GDP leading to a more than fourfold rise in imports. Furthermore, multiple regression analysis indicated that a 1% increase in R&D investments results in a 2.21% decrease in fossil fuel imports in 91.7% of cases. This suggests that R&D investments contribute to improved efficiency and the use of renewable energy sources.

The creation of a Europe-wide electricity market combined with the increased intermittency of supply from renewable sources calls for an investigation into the risk of aggregate peak demand. This paper makes use of a risk model to assess differences in time-use data from residential end-users in five different European electricity markets. Drawing on the Multinational Time-Use Survey database, it assesses risk in relation to the probability of electrical appliance use within households for five European countries. Findings highlight in which countries and for which activities the risk of aggregate peak demand is higher and link smart home solutions (automated load control, dynamic pricing and smart appliances) to different levels of peak demand risk.

The Smart Park (well-known as Taman Pintar) as a major educational tourism destination in Jogjakarta offers a variety of tourism attractions that are very interesting for tourists. The main purpose of tourists visiting Smart Park is to get an educational tourism experience. A subjective experience raises a specific challenge for Smart Park toward the status of competitive destination. The purpose of this study is to analyze the aspects of educational tourism experience that are affected by tourism demand and supply. Data were collected by survey technique to 150 respondents and analyzed using path analysis. The results of analysis show that tourism demand and supply contributed to the variation of tourism activities by 45.1%, while the remaining was explained by other variables, such as National Budget, Local Budget, ticket sale, and cooperation with some stakeholders. Tourism supply had a higher effect than tourism demand. Tourism demand did not partially affect tourism experience. However, the results of the path analysis indicate that tourism supply had direct and indirect effects on tourism experience through the variation of tourism activities with indirect effect being dominant. In the management of Smart Park, there is still a gap between tourism demand and supply, so that the environment of tourism experience has not been created maximally.

A new model for international bed numbers is applied to local area populations for English Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) where the Age Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR) is used as a measure of population health and hence for total occupied hospital bed demand (elective plus emergency admission types, including acute, rehabilitation, mental health, and maternity), rather than simple bed availability. A 100-unit increase in ASMR (European Standard population) leads to a 15.3 – 30.7 (feasible range) unit increase in occupied beds per 1,000 deaths. ASMR shows why the Australian states of the Northern Territory and Tasmania have an intrinsic higher bed demand than the other states – although in both cases the bed planning methodologies failed to indicate this need and both states show a large bed deficit. Due to the high volatility in bed demand the average bed demand for 2019 was determined by a linear trend using data for 2014/15 to 2019/20 — as the pre-COVID-19 baseline. The slope of the relationship between occupied beds per 1,000 deaths and deaths per 1,000 population shows a power law function. As is to be expected there is scatter around the trend line which will partly arise from uncertainty in the expected occupied beds in 2019, fluctuations in both ASMR and deaths per 1,000 population from one year to another, changes in the number of persons on the elective, outpatient and diagnostic waiting lists, and local area variation in births and consequently upon maternity, neonatal and pediatric bed demand. Additional variation in bed demand will arise from differences in the level of funding for social care, especially elderly care, and to a lesser extent upon patients using private health care, and charitable hospices for palliative care. However, after including the change in bed demand arising from ASMR the model is sufficiently accurate to identify gross differences in bed demand as a prelude to further investigation. The model requires further extension to cover specialty-level demand, and perhaps segregation between elective and emergency types of inpatient demand. A method for benchmarking the whole hospital’s average bed occupancy is given which enables them to run at optimum efficiency and safety. Using this method English hospitals can be shown to operate at highly disruptive and unsafe levels of bed occupancy leading to deleterious ‘turn-away’. Turn-away implies bed unavailability for the next arriving patient. The problems associated with crafting effective bed planning are illustrated using the English NHS as an example.

Electricity demand forecasting plays a significant role in energy markets. Accurate prediction of electricity demand is the key factor to optimize power generation, consumption, saving energy resources, and determining the energy prices. However, integrating energy mix scenarios, including solar and wind power which are highly non-linear and seasonal, into an existing grid increases uncertainty in generation, adds the challenges for precise forecast. To tackle these challenges, state-of-the-art methods and algorithms have been implemented in literature. We have developed Artificial Intelligence (AI) based deep learning models that can effectively handle the information of long time-series data. Based on the pattern of dataset, four different scenarios were developed and two best scenarios were selected for prediction. Dozens of models were developed and tested in deep AI networks. In the first scenario (Scenario1), data for weekdays excluding holidays was taken and in the second scenario (Scenario2) all the data in the basket was taken. Remaining two scenarios, weekends and holidays were tested and neglected because of their high prediction error. To find the optimal configuration, models were trained and tested within a large space of alternatives called hyper-parameters. In this study, an Aritificial Neural Network (ANN) based Feed-forward Neural Network (FNN) showed the minimum prediction error for Scenario1 while a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based Gated Recurrent Network (GRU) showed the minimum prediction error for Scenario2. While comparing the accuracy, the lowest MAPE of 2.47% was obtained from FNN for Scenario1. When evaluating the same testing dataset (non-holidays) of Scenario2, the RNN-GRU model achieved the lowest MAPE of 2.71%. Therefore, we can conclude that grouping of weekdays as Senario1 prepared by excluding the holidays provides better forecasting accuracy compared to the single group approach used in Scenario2, where all the dataset is considered together. However, Scenario2 is equally important to predict the demand for weekends and holidays.

In addition to the traditional QoS metrics of delay, delay jitter, and packet loss probability (PLP), Quality of Experience (QoE) is now widely accepted as a numerical proxy for actual user experience. The literature has reported many mathematical mappings between QoE and QoS. These QoS parameters are measured by the network providers using sampling. There are some papers studying sampling errors in QoS measurements; however there is no account of propagation of these sampling errors to QoE evaluation. In this paper, we used industrially acquired measurements of PLP and jitter to evaluate the sampling errors and correlation in measurements. Focussing on Video-on-demand (VoD) applications, we use subjective testing and regression to map QoE metrics onto PLP and jitter. The resulting mathematical functions of QoE and theory of error propagation was used to evaluate the propagated error in QoE, and this error was represented as confidence interval. Using the guidelines of UK government for sampling, our results indicate that confidence intervals around estimated QoE in a busy hour can be between MOS=1 to MOS=5 at targeted operating point of QoS parameters. These results are a new perspective on QoE evaluation, and are of great significance to all organisations that need to estimate the QoE VoD applications precisely.

Power systems have been going through a barrage of transformations due to the recent developments in the field, such as deregulation and restructuring of the electric power supply chain, the proliferation of distributed generation (DG), and advancements in information and communications technologies. These have significantly impacted the approach to the planning, design, and operation of active distribution networks or systems. Due to this constant change, the system has become more complex to plan, maintain, and control. In this paper, the benefits, and challenges of active distribution systems relative to traditional passive and active distribution systems are evaluated and investigated while the management and operational characteristics of demand-side resources in Active Distribution Systems (ADS) are studied. In a typical ADS, there exist several vulnerabilities and threats that eventually pose a challenge in the control and automation of substations. These vulnerabilities and threats are reviewed, and potential mitigation measures are suggested. Also in this paper, the communication technologies, and their implementation in terms of control and automation capabilities in active distribution networks are also studied. From this work, it is concluded that communication technologies play an integral role in the realization of a more active distribution networks and that the internet of energy (IoE) is a major player in ADS in the reduction of faults due to human error, fast responses, and improving the stability of power supply. Cyber threats are also and will still be a continuous challenge in smart metering technologies and in substation automation systems (SAS) which will require frequent evaluation and mitigation measures so as not to prevent the power supply system from collapsing.

Over-capacity flight scheduling by commercial airlines due to the surging demand in recent years creates congestion and significant delays at major airports. This maximizing throughput attitude calls for tactical flight rescheduling to comply with airports’ capacity limitations and distribute the peak hour demand over the course of a day. Such displacements of flights may cause significant problems and costs for airlines and some cancellations or missed connections for the passengers. This paper presents an optimization model for flight rescheduling at a schedule-coordinated airport to minimize congestion and flight delays. The optimization model is used to make better scheduling intervention decisions considering the airport resource constraints and safety of operation. We have also developed a simulation method to replicate arrival and departure processes in such an airport. The simulation adheres to a first come first served (FCFS) discipline and enforces runway capacity constraints and minimum turnaround times. We compare the delays caused by an ad hoc FCFS operation with those obtained by the optimization model. Computational results from a case study demonstrate that a reduction of 40.7% and 61.6% in total delay times for the arrival and departure flights can be achieved by the optimization model. It also facilitates implementing a collaborative decision-making system for better coordination with commercial airlines.

Rapid population growth causes smallholders to practice unsustainable forms of land intensification to meet increasing food demand. Food insecurity is exacerbated by unreliable rainfall. We revisit family planning, smallholder irrigation, and agricultural cooperatives as potential sustainable solutions. We use descriptive statistics based on primary data from Kakamega Central and Navakholo in Kenya. Results from respondents indicate 83% had no family planning information, while 82% had no access to irrigation. The major reasons are poverty, illiteracy, misconceptions, gender inequality, constraints in accessing credit, lack of investment in water resources, and family planning. Lack of access to agricultural extension services limits the adoption of sustainable farming practices. Cooperatives’ principles and values make them suitable pathways to reach the poorest and facilitate members’ access to productive resources. Cooperatives can be used to train members in sustainable agricultural practices and educate members on family planning issues. Cooperatives have contributed to better yields, incomes, nutritional status, and reduced poverty. However are constrained by a lack of capital, credit, infrastructure, markets, training and technology, delayed payment, and low prices. Governments and development agencies should support the establishment and development of cooperatives with capacity building, market infrastructure, finance, and education in cooperative principles and values.

Transportation, environmental conditions, quality of human life within smart cities, and system infrastructure have all needed practical and dependable smart solutions as urbanization has accelerated in recent years. In addition, the emerging Internet of Things (IoT) provides access to a plethora of cutting-edge, all-encompassing apps for smart cities, all of which contribute significantly to lowering energy consumption and other negative environmental impacts. For smart cities to meet the challenge of using less energy, the authors of this research article suggest planning and implementing an integrated power and heat architecture that puts renewable energy infrastructure and energy-storage infrastructure at the top of the list. To address these issues, we describe a smart proposed NEOSRD architecture that uses a distributed smart area domain to optimize renewable demand energy in a smart city across a wide area network. The energy requirements of desalination procedures are negligible when compared to the total local energy consumption and transportation, a feat accomplished by the proposed NEOSRD system. Here, the computational model shows how the established system is a valuable response to our problems and a cost-effective strategy for creating smarter structural elements that cut down on overall smart cities' energy costs.

The part transportation efficiency is a main factor of aircraft sortie generation rate. Part transportation is used to transport spare part from base to carrier. Transportation strategy depends on both demand on carrier and inventory in transportation base. The transportation time and stochastic demand will induce fluctuations of cost and inventory. Thus, a Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system of dynamic part transportation is established considering transportation time and stochastic demand. And a novel Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy robust control is designed for dynamic part transportation, which will keep transportation cost and part inventory stable. First of all, a fuzzy model with stochastic demand and transportation time is proposed. Then, a novel robust control with cross rule groups is conducted according to production and transportation strategy, which will reduce fluctuations induced by strategies switch. Moreover, robust stability is guaranteed and part can be supplied in time under a low cost. Finally, simulation illustrates usefulness and quickness of the novel Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy robust control. Besides, the proposed method will be useful in other transportation electrification systems with delay time and uncertainty.

A humidity-sensitive demand-controlled ventilation system is known for many years. It has been developed and commonly applied in regions with an oceanic climate. Some attempts were made to introduce this solution in Poland in a much severe continental climate. The article evaluates this system's performance and energy consumption applied in an 8-floor multi-unit residential building, virtual reference building described by the National Energy Conservation Agency NAPE, Poland. The simulations using the computer program CONTAM were performed for the whole hating season for Warsaw's climate. Besides passive stack ventilation that worked as a reference, two versions of humidity-sensitive demand-controlled ventilation were checked. The difference between them lies in applying the additional roof fans that convert the system to hybrid. The study confirmed that the application of demand-controlled ventilation in multi-unit residential buildings in a continental climate with warm summer (Dfb) leads to significant energy savings. However, the efforts to ensure acceptable indoor air quality require hybrid ventilation, which reduces the energy benefits. It is especially visible when primary energy use is analyzed.

The rise in population density, vehicle ownership, and urban development has significantly influenced travel demand and altered travel patterns, leading to traffic congestion in rapidly growing urban centers like Accra, Ghana. The traditional approach of expanding roadways to accommodate rising traffic is no longer environmentally sustainable. Instead, emphasis has shifted towards travel demand management (TDM) strategies as a more sustainable solution. This study aimed to investigate a range of TDM strategies that can be adopted in Accra to improve traffic flow through the lenses of everyday road users. The study employed a questionnaire survey and a stratified sampling technique to gather data from 615 respondents for relative importance index (RII) ranking, and Chi-square statistical analysis. The findings reveal that the topmost preferred strategies were mass transit improvements, walking and cycling improvements, and alternative work schedules. Notably, mass transit improvements emerged as the most preferred strategy. The study also unveiled a statistically significant correlation between variables such as age, education level, marital status, income level, and mode of transportation with all selected TDM preferences. However, no significant relationship was found between gender and car ownership with all selected TDM preferences. The study provides valuable insights regarding road users’ preferences for TDM strategies that can aid in planning future urban mobility systems to proactively manage travel demand, alleviate congestion, and promote sustainable transportation options for the city’s residents.

Modelling and presenting mathematical relationships for human behaviour is one of the most complex issues that researchers have always dealt with. In this article, a bottom-up framework for calculating agricultural needs is presented using the socioeconomic characteristics of farmers (such as education level, age, and dependence on income on agriculture) and how their lands are located concerning each other (interactions between neighbours). The objective function of this framework is to maximize the profit of individual farmers based on the amount of water received. Two scenarios, ABM1 (not considering neighbourhood effects) and ABM2 (all cases of farmers' placement and feeling neighbourhood effects), were investigated. In the first scenario (ABM1), there was a noteworthy reduction in water deficit volumes by approximately 35%, accompanied by a 20% increment in farmers' profits. Interestingly, higher risk-taking tendencies correlated with reduced profit margins. The second scenario (ABM2) underscored the significant role of neighborhood dynamics in cultivating diverse behavioral patterns among farmers, subsequently affecting their profitability. A granular examination revealed that farmers with a higher propensity for risk-taking generally accrued lower profits. Additionally, the study facilitated the calculation of total annual profits and average water consumption for each farmer, offering valuable insights for optimizing water resource management and allocation strategies. These findings are instrumental for planners and water resource managers aiming to promote sustainable agricultural practices and efficient water use.

In this article, we present the use of the coupled land surface model and groundwater flow model SWAT-MODFLOW with the decision support tool WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning software) to predict future surface water abstraction scenarios in a complex river basin, under conditions of climate change. The modeling framework is applied to the Dee River catchment in Wales, United Kingdom. Regarding hydrology, the coupled model improves overall water balance and low streamflow conditions, compared to a stand-alone SWAT model. The calibrated SWAT-MODFLOW is employed with high resolution climate model data from the UKCP18 project with future scenario of RCP85 from 2020 to 2040. Then, water supply results from SWAT-MODFLOW are fed into WEAP as input for the river reach in the downstream region of the river basin. This system is utilized to create various future scenarios of surface water abstraction of public water supply in the downstream region: maximum licensed withdraw, 50 % authorized abstractions, monthly time series with 1% increase of water use, and maximum water withdraw year based on historical records repeated every year with 1% increase of water use, to estimate the unmet demands and streamflow requirement. This modeling approach can be used in other river basins to manage scenarios of supply and demand.

Climate change has become the greatest threat to the survival of world and its ecosystem. With the irreversible impact on the ecosystem, problems like rise in sea level, food-insecurity, natural resources scarcity, seasonal disorders have increased over the past few years. Among these problems, the issue of water scarcity due to the lack of water resources and global warming has plagued several nations. Owing to the rising concerns over water scarcity United Nations (UN) has acknowledged water as a primary resource to the development of societies under the ‘Water Goal’ of the sustainable development goals. As the changing climate and intermittent availability of water resources pose major challenges to forecast demand, especially in countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) which has one of the highest per capita residential water consumption rates in the world. Therefore, the aim of this study is to propose an accurate water demand forecasting technique that incorporates all significant factors to predict the future water demands of the UAE. The forecasting model used is the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), with the factors considered are mean temperature, mean rainfall, relative humidity, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and population growth. The LSTM model predicts the water demand forecasting in the UAE showing that the future demand will decrease from 1821 million m3 in 2018 to 1809.9 million m3 in 2027.

This study presents application of demand response strategy in a standalone wind-solar-battery hybrid energy system (HES). Inputs for the designed HES are wind speed, solar radiation, temperature and load demand which is variable with time. In this study, hourly values of meteorological data and hourly load demand are considered in one year. An improved gravitational search algorithm (IGSA) is used to optimize the configuration of the standalone wind-solar-battery hybrid power system. The optimal objectives of the system are cost of the system in life cycle, the loss of power supply probability（LPSP）and the energy excess percentage（EXC）.The effect of demand response on economic benefit and energy storage allocation of the standalone wind-solar-battery system is studied. The obtained optimal configuration of the proposed HES can provide minimal energy cost with excellent performance and reduced waste and unmet load.

Over the last decade, there has been a renewed interest in oral health workforce planning. The purpose of this review is to examine oral health workforce planning models on supply, demand and needs, mainly in respect to their data sources, modelling technique and use of skill mix. A search was carried out on PubMed, Web of Science, and Google Scholar databases for published scientific articles on oral health workforce planning models between 2010 to 2020. No restrictions were placed on the type of modelling philosophy, and all studies including supply, demand or needs based models were included. Rapid review methods guided the review process. Twenty-three studies from 15 different countries were included in the review. A majority were from high income countries (n=17). Dentists were the sole oral health workforce group modelled in 13 studies; only five studied included skill mix (allied dental personnel) considerations. The most common application of modelling was a workforce to population ratio or a needs-based demand weighted variant. Nearly all studies presented weaknesses in modelling process due to the limitations in data sources and/or non availability of necessary data to inform oral health workforce planning. Skill mix considerations in planning models were also limited to horizontal integration within oral health professionals. Planning for the future oral health workforce is heavily reliant on quality data being available for supply, demand and needs models. Integrated methodologies that expand skill mix considerations and account for uncertainty are essential for future planning exercises.

E-commerce has gained increased popularity over the last decade. To date, there is an open debate as to whether e-commerce or brick-and-mortar shopping is environmentally less sustainable, especially due to the growing mobility resources needed for e-commerce distribution. The analysis at hand compares the CO2-equivalent emissions of e-commerce and brick-and-mortar shopping of pharmaceutical products considering spatial aspects and the typical transport modal mix of consumers when doing online and offline shopping. The object of analysis is a retailer of pharmaceutical products, more precisely medicines, which offers, both, brick-and-mortar shop and online shopping possibilities. The results show that spatial aspects concerning the residential location of consumers, the vehicles used for shopping trips, the shopping basked size, and trip-chaining effects have a crucial impact on the mobility demand and CO2-equivalent emissions of the two commerce forms. In general, for rural and sub-urban areas, e-commerce results in lower CO2-equivalent emissions, while in urban areas, brick-and-mortar shopping is the favourable solution, if the consumers walk or cycle to the next pharmacy.

The prevalence of corona virus and the novel COVID-19 disease in the entire globe has exacerbated different impact on socioeconomic spectrum in the world, including water use pattern. Thus a research was conducted to examine the comparative use of water during pre- and post-COVID-19 lockdown pattern among post-primary schools in Iwo, Osun State, Nigeria. A survey was conducted among fifteen schools which were randomly selected, but with eight public and seven private schools for the investigation. Both descriptive and inferential statistical techniques were used in data analysis. The results revealed that the major source of water to the schools investigated is ground water which is obtained through hand-dug wells and boreholes. It was further discovered that there was increase in water use during post-COVID-19 lockdown era as a result of the directive by the government that clean water should be provided for hand-washing by all schools regardless of the owner to curtail the spread of COVID-19 disease in the country. One sample t-test also revealed that there was a significant difference in water use at (p<0.01) level. It is recommended that the government and other stakeholders in water sector to ensure that all-time and non-seasonal dependent source of water be provided rather than ground water source which is susceptible to variations in water yields from seasonal variations. This will enable continuous clean water supply, for all purposes, including COVID-19 protocols.

The present state of the natural environment is significantly influenced by the construction sector. Due to the large amounts of consumed natural resources and materials as well as the high volume of emitted pollutants, the building industry is considered to have a key influence in achieving a global sustainable development. A considerable part of the ecological impact of the built environment is influenced by the energy consumed for creating appropriate indoor conditions as well as by the greenhouse gases that are emitted during the operation stage of a building’s life cycle. Therefore, the energy performances of existing buildings must be significantly improved in the near future. This paper analyzes the influence of the thermal insulation thickness of walls on the linear thermal transmittances and the heating demand of an existing building. The resulted values show that while increasing the insulation of the walls leads to a serious heat demand reduction, a deep renovation of the building cannot be achieved solely by using this solution.

This work focuses on an inland area of North Sardinia (Italy), which is currently subject to depopulation and economic crisis because it is not affected by the summer tourism typical of the region. Despite this, the area shows an interesting architectural and natural heritage, as of today insufficiently known and valued. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to illustrate the application of the Conjoint Analysis methodology on this case study aimed at supporting processes of valorisation, diversification of the tourist offer and promotion of the through the detection of the preferences of a sample of residents and visitors on a set of 9 cards (itinerary profiles) which also promote the peculiarities of small rural centres. Thus, by valorising the material and immaterial heritage and their intrinsic characteristics, it is shown that inland areas can generate an economy by offering new types of tourism, not just the typically invasive summer and maritime tourism. The research, therefore, seeks to estimate the economic value of the area from a public point of view through the WTP measured by a questionnaire of 600 interviews between inhabitants (300) and tourists (299).

Energy poverty, defined as a lack of access to reliable electricity and reliance on traditional biomass resources for cooking, affects over a billion people daily. The World Health Organization estimates that household air pollution from inefficient stoves causes more premature deaths than malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS). Increasing demand for energy has led to dramatic increases in carbon emissions. The need for reliable electricity and limiting carbon emissions drives research on Resil-ient Hybrid Energy Systems (RHES) that provide low-carbon energy through combined wind, so-lar, and biomass energy with traditional fossil energy, increasing production efficiency and relia-bility, and reducing generating costs and carbon emissions. Microgrids have been shown as an ef-ficient means of implementing RHES, with some focused mainly on reducing the environmental impact of electric power generation. The technical challenges of designing, implementing and ap-plying microgrids involve conducting a cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate these systems' environmental and economic performance under diverse operating conditions to evaluate resiliency. A sample RHES has been developed and used to demonstrate implementation in rural applications. This system can provide reliable electricity for heating, cooling, lighting, and pumping clean water. This paper's primary focus is the challenges of using resilient energy sys-tems in the Middle East.

It is crucial to forecast the water demand accurately for supplying water efficiently and stably in a water supply system. In particular, accurately forecasting short-term water demand helps in saving energy and reducing operating costs. With the introduction of the Smart Water Grid (SWG) in a water supply system, the amount of water consumption is obtained in real time through an advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) sensor, which can be used for forecasting the short-term water demand. The models widely used for water demand forecasting include the autoregressive integrated moving average, radial basis function-artificial neural network, quantitative multi-model predictor plus, and long short-term memory. However, there is a lack of research on assessing the performance of models and forecasting the short-term water demand by applying the data on the amount of water consumption by purpose and the pipe diameter of an end-use level of the SWG demonstration plant in each demand forecasting model. Therefore, in this study, the short-term water demand was forecasted for each model using the data collected from the AMI, and the performance of each model was assessed. The Smart Water Grid Research Group installed ultrasonic-wave-type AMI sensors in the block 112 located in YeongJong Island, Incheon, and the actual data used for operating the SWG demonstration plant were adopted. The performance of the model was assessed by using the residual, root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) as indices. The water demand forecast was slightly underestimated in models that employed the assessment results based on the RMSE and NRMSE. Furthermore, the forecasting accuracy was low for the NSE due to a large number of negative values; the correlation between the observed and forecasted values of the PCC was not high, and it was difficult to forecast the peak amount of water consumption. Therefore, as the short-term water demand forecasting models using only time and the amount of water consumption have limitations in reflecting the characteristics of consumers, a water supply system can be managed more precisely if other factors (weather, customer behavior, etc.) influencing the water demand are applied.

The purpose of this paper is to provide empirical evidence to water policy-makers and the evaluation of the application of economic instruments such as price and other factors affecting demand, they contribute to improved decision-making around water management in the Biosphere Reserve El Vizcaino, Mexico. It was estimated a dynamic function with average price specification and other price perception specification. The findings show that consumers react to average price perceived and not the marginal price; long-run price elasticity is higher than short-run and both elasticities are inelastic. Elasticities inelastic with rising prices generate high incomes to improve water planning, supply quality and expand service coverage. The results suggest that the level of knowledge of users on the price is key to take into account restructuring rates in a scenario where the consumer has asymmetric information and themselves achieve goals of economic efficiency, social equity and environmental sustainability.

To satisfy the interests of multiple agents and those of comprehensive indicators such as peak-to-valley differences and load fluctuations occurring on the network side, this paper presents a flexible load demand-side response optimization method that considers the benefits of peak-to-valley smoothing. First, load aggregation modelling of air conditioning and electric vehicles was conducted, and the complementarity of the power consumption behaviour of different types of flexible loads was used to improve the responsiveness of the load aggregator. Second, considering demand-side responses and taking into account the interests of both supply and demand, the load fluctuation and peak-to-valley difference on the network side are reduced, and a flexible load double-layer optimization model incorporating the peak-to-valley smoothing benefit is established. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed optimization model is verified by using the KKT condition and the big M method to evaluate this two-layer optimization problem as a single-layer optimization problem. Comparative examples demonstrate that the proposed two-layer optimization method can improve the revenue of the distribution network operators and the load aggregators by using the complementary nature of the load response characteristics of electric vehicles and air conditioners. Moreover, the proposed method can effectively reduce the load peak-to-valley difference and load fluctuation of the distribution network by introducing the peak-to-valley smoothing benefit model.

Space and water heating for residential and commercial buildings amount to a third of the European Union’s total final energy consumption. Approximately 75% of the primary energy is still produced by burning fossil fuels, leading to high greenhouse gas emissions in the heating sector. Therefore, policymakers increasingly strive to trigger investments in sustainable and low-emission heating systems. This study forms part of the “Roll-out of Deep Geothermal Energy in North-West-Europe”-project and aims at quantifying the spatial heat demand distribution in the Interreg North-West-Europe region. An open-source geographic information system and selected Python packages for advanced geospatial processing, analysis, and visualization are utilized to constrain the maps. These were combined, streamlined, and optimized within the open-source Python package PyHeatDemand. Based on national and regional heat demand input data, three maps are developed to better constrain heat demand at a high spatial resolution of 100*100m2 for the residential and commercial sectors, and for both together (in total). The developed methodology cannot only be applied to transnational heat demand mapping but also on various scales ranging from city district level to states and countries. In addition, the workflow is highly flexible working with raster data, vector data, and tabular data. Results reveal a total heat demand of the Interreg North-West-Europe region of about 1,700TWh. The spatial distribution of the heat demand follows specific patterns, where heat demand peaks are usually in metropolitan regions like for the city of Paris (1,400MWh/ha), the city of Brussels (1,300MWh/ha), the London metropolitan area (520 MWh/ha), and the Rhine-Ruhr region (500 MWh/ha). The developed maps are compared with two international projects, Hotmaps and Heat Roadmap Europe’s Pan European Thermal Atlas. The average total heat demand difference from values obtained in this study to Hotmaps and Heat Roadmap Europe is 24 MWh/ha and 84 MWh/ha, respectively. It is assumed that the implementation of real consumption data is an improvement in spatial predictability. The heat demand maps are therefore predestined to provide a conceptual first overview for decision-makers and market investors. The developed methods will further allow for anticipated mandatory municipal heat demand analyses.

This paper provides a new multi-function Blockchain Technology-enabled Pharmaceutical Supply Chain (BT-enabled PSC) mathematical cost model, including PSC costs, BT costs, and uncertain demand fluctuations. The purpose of this study is to find the most appropriate algorithm(s) with minimum prediction errors to predict the costs of the BT-enabled PSC model. This paper also aims to determine the importance and cost of each component of the multi-function model. To reach these goals, we combined four Supervised Learning algorithms (KNN, DT, SVM, and NB) with two Evolutionary Computation algorithms (HS and PSO) after data generation. Each component of the multi-function model has its own importance, and we applied the Feature Weighting approach to analyse their importance. Next, four performance metrics evaluated the multi-function model, and the Total Ranking Score determined predictive algorithms with high reliability. The results indicate the HS-NB and PSO-NB algorithms perform better than the other six algorithms in predicting the costs of the multi-function model with small errors. The findings also show that the Raw Materials cost has a stronger influence on the model than the other components. This study also introduces the components of the multi-function BT-enabled PSC model.

The impact of climate change on water resources is a global issue with significant regional implications. The Ghba subbasin has experienced a higher socioeconomic change. In this paper, we assess the potential impact of climate change and human activity on water supply and demand in the Ghba subbasin of Ethiopia. We then evaluate the effectiveness of regional adaptation strategies for water supply management under these conditions. To do this, we use the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and the water assessment and planning tool (WEAP) to simulate and analyse future water conditions. After running the model through a calibration and validation process, minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures, water demand and unmet water demand were projected for 2100 horizon, using different climate change scenarios. The results showed that the model's performance, calibration, and validation were all satisfactory. The analysis showed that, under A2 and B2 emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the mean precipitation will increase by 31% and 26%, respectively. The projected mean Tmax and Tmin will be warmer than the baseline period, with Tmax increasing by 1.5°C (A2) and 1.3°C (B2), and Tmin by 1.7°C (A2) and 1.5°C (B2) by 2100. The results also illustrate that in all scenarios, water consumption would rise and that this need will not be satisfied, and the pressure on water resources will intensify, resulting in a water shortage. The findings show that future water demand under the influence of climate change is projected to exceed 210 million cubic meters (MCM) by 2100. The findings show that while the evaluations of the recommended adaption techniques are effective, they are not enough to guarantee the Ghba subbasin's water sustainability.

The utilization of primary school buildings is multifaceted, primarily due to the high occupancy density, varying thermal preferences among occupants, diverse indoor activities (such as walking, sports, and conversation), and a constant flow of individuals entering and exiting the building. This results in frequent opening and closing of external windows and doors and fluctuations in internal heat gain. Consequently, frequent interactions between the indoor and outdoor microenvironments lead to energy losses. This study conducts a comprehensive literature review on building energy loss stemming from occupant behavior and the interactions between indoor and outdoor microenvironments. Furthermore, it proposes a dynamic real-time monitoring system based on a computer data capture and visualization platform foundation for building energy loss. The research methods include data crawling, data association rule mining, and data association analysis. The research findings yield a universally applicable and informative building energy-saving design theory based on extensive data analysis. Additionally, the system presents information on occupants' behavior and the microclimate data of indoor and outdoor environments on a computer screen, facilitating human-machine communication and enabling timely adjustments to design strategies for new buildings and operation and maintenance strategies for existing buildings.

: This study examines the prospects of residential water demand management policy regulations in Ethiopia and their implications for sustainable water resource management. This study aims to evaluate the existing policy regulations and analyze their effectiveness in promoting efficient water use and conservation practices in residential areas. By considering the potential challenges and opportunities associated with these regulations, the research provides insights into the future of residential water demand management in Ethiopia and suggests strategies for enhancing sustainable water resource management. Integrated literature and policy document review, alongside observation and interviews, was used to assess the viability of residential water demand management policies. The assessment of current policy regulations for residential water demand management in Ethiopian urban towns has revealed significant shortcomings in promoting water conservation activities. Hence, there is a need for significant improvements in the current water resource policy guidelines, which lack specificity, particularly in residential water demand management conservation strategies. The lack of awareness among residents regarding the importance of conserving their limited water resources is evident. To address these challenges and ensure the sustainability of the water supply, the government and policy developers must engage with various stakeholders, including the community, in the process of revising current policy documents. A more precise and tailored approach is necessary for its effective implementation.

In this paper, a systematic literature review is presented, through a survey in the main digital databases, about modelling methods for Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) for hourly electricity demand for residential electricity and to realize the performance evolution and impact of the Artificial Intelligent (AI) in STLF. With these specific objectives, it was developed a conceptual framework on the subject, a systematic review of the literature based on scientific publications with high impact and a bibliometric study directed to the scientific production of AI and STLF. The review of research articles over a 10-year period, which takes place between 2012-2022, uses the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) method. This research resulted in more than 300 articles, available in 4 (four) databases: Web of Science, IEEE Xplore, Scopus and Science Direct. The research was organized around 3 (three) central themes, which were defined through keywords: STLF, Electricity, Residential and their corresponding synonyms. 334 research articles were analyzed and identified the year of publication, journal, author, geography by continent and country and the area of application. Of the 334 documents found in the initial research and after applying the inclusion/exclusion criteria, which allowed delimiting the subject addressed in the topics of interest for analysis, 37 (thirty-seven) documents are in English (25 are journal articles and 12 are conference papers). The results point to a diversity of modelling techniques and associated algorithms. The corresponding performance is measured with different metrics and, therefore, cannot be compared directly. Hence, it should be desirable to have a unified data set together with a set of benchmarks with well-defined metrics for a clear comparison of all the modelling techniques and the corresponding algorithms.

Peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading could help address grid management challenges in a decentralizing electricity system, as well as providing other social and environmental benefits. Many existing and proposed trading schemes are enabled by blockchain, a distributed ledger technology (DLT) relying on cryptographic proof of ownership rather than human intermediaries to establish energy transactions. This study used an online survey experiment (n=2064) to investigate how consumer demand for blockchain-enabled peer-to-peer energy trading schemes in the United Kingdom varies depending on how the consumer proposition is designed and communicated. The analysis provides some evidence of a preference for schemes offering to meet a higher proportion of participants’ energy needs, and for those operating at the city/region (as compared to national or neighbourhood) level. People were more likely to say they would participate when the scheme was framed as being run by their local council, followed by an energy supplier, community energy organization, and social media company. Anonymity was the most valued DLT characteristic and mentioning blockchain’s association with Bitcoin led to a substantial decrease in intended uptake. We highlight a range of important questions and implications suggested by these findings for the introduction and operation of P2P trading schemes.

The outbreak of SARS-COV-2 disease 2019 (COVID-19) abruptly changed the patterns in electricity consumption, challenging the system operations of forecasting and balancing supply and demand. This is due to the mitigation measures that include lockdown and Work from Home (WFH), which decreased the aggregated demand and remarkably altered its profile. Here, we characterise these changes with various quantitative markers and compare it with pre-COVID-19 business-as-usual data using Great Britain (GB) as a case study. The ripple effects on the generation portfolio, system frequency, forecasting accuracy and imbalance pricing are also analysed. An energy data extraction and pre-processing pipeline that can be used in a variety of similar studies is also presented. Analysis of the GB demand data during the March 2020 lockdown indicates that a shift to WFH will result to a net benefit for flexible stakeholders, such as consumer on variable tariffs. Furthermore, the analysis illustrates a need for faster and more frequent balancing actions, as a result of the increased share of renewable energy in the generation mix. This new equilibrium of energy demand and supply will require a redesign of the existing balancing mechanisms as well as the longer-term power system planning strategies.

Recently natural gas (NG) global market attracted much attention in case it is cleaner than oil, and simultaneously in most regions is cheaper than renewable energy sources. However, price fluctuations, environmental concerns, technological development, emerging unconventional resources, energy security challenges, and shipment are some of the forces that made the NG market more dynamic and complex. From a policy-making perspective, it is vital to uncover demand-side future trends. This paper proposed an intelligent forecasting model to forecast NG global demand, however investigating a multi-dimensional purified input vector. The model starts with a data mining (DM) step to purify input features, identify the best time lags, and to pre-process selected input vector. Then a hybrid artificial neural network (ANN) which equipped with genetic optimizer is applied to set up ANN’s characteristics. Among 13 available input features, six features (e.g. Alternative and Nuclear Energy, CO2 Emissions, GDP per Capita, Urban Population, Natural Gas Production, Oil Consumption) selected as the most critical feature via the DM step. Then, the hybrid prediction model is designed to extrapolate the consumption of future trends. The proposed model overcomes competitive models refer to different error based evaluation statistics. Besides, as the model proposed the best input feature set, results compared to the model which used the raw input set, with no DM purification process.

As climate is not only a valuable tourism resource but also a factor influencing travel experience, estimating climate change can provide implications to sustainable development of the tourism industry. This study develops Climate Volatility Index (CVI) using GARCH model and estimates the relationship between CVI and Japanese tourism demand for Korea using a tourism demand model, based on data from January 2000 to December 2013. Time lag is applied based on a decision making process regarding travel destinations. The result shows that an increase in volatility of climate change leads to a decrease in tourism demand.

The power generation from hydroelectric plants has increased worldwide, contributing to the participation of the renewable sources to the energy matrix. In the semiarid Brazilian Northeast (NEB), thousands of small dams have been built over time as a solution for water supply. Although incompatible with hydropower generation due to the conflict with human water supply in the region, small reservoirs accumulate water and hydraulic energy at high altitudes. In this work, simulations were performed to assess how the arrangement of various sized reservoirs impact the power demand for water distribution in the Banabuiú River Basin – BRB (19,800 km²), Brazil. The power required to pump water from all 1,405 reservoirs to the districts is 6.5 GWh/year, whereas in the scenario with the 12 larger strategic reservoirs only, the power demand reaches 45.3 GWh/year. Although representing roughly 60% of the water availability of the BRB and being able to supply all the districts, the Arrojado Lisboa reservoir alone would demand 195 GWh/year to supply water to the entire basin, i.e. 30 times the power required in the real reservoir arrangement. By storing water at high altitudes and distributing it spatially, the small reservoirs increase the energy efficiency on the water distribution system.

To regulate the growth of battery-based electric vehicles (BEVs) in Indonesia and mitigate their impact on the power grid's supply-demand balance, the government can adjust BEV regulations and offer subsidies. The Jawa-Madura-Bali (Jamali) electrical system, being the largest in Indonesia [1], faces the challenge of accommodating the increasing number of vehicles [2]. Subsequent to analyzing Jamali's electricity supply using data from the National Electricity Company (RUPTL) [3], simulations are constructed to model the grid's demand side. Input variables such as Jamali's population, internal combustion engine (ICE) and electric vehicle populations, initial charging time (ICT), slow- and fast-charging ratios, and BEV charge load curves are simulated. Scenario variables like supply capacity growth speed, vehicle population growth speed, subsidy impact on EV attractiveness, ICT, and fast-charging ratio are subsequently simulated for 2024-2029. Four key simulation outcomes are identified: the best-case scenario (Scenario 1776), achieves the highest EV growth with minimal grid disruption, resulting in a 45.38% EV percentage in 2029 and requiring an annual allocation of 492 billion rupiah to match supply with demand. The worst outcome scenario leads to a 23.12% EV percentage, necessitating 47.566 billion rupiah for EV subsidies in 2029. Additionally, the most and least probable scenarios based on literature research are evaluated. This simulation and its results provide insights into EV growth's impact on the grid's balance in one presidential term from 2024 to 2029 [4], aiding the government in planning regulations and subsidies effectively. Improving the simulation's accuracy depends on refining input variables over time.

Survivors of sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) are often hindered in their quest to access quality healthcare. This could complicate the achievement of the laudable SDG Target 3.7. The study used an ethnographic approach to solicit information from health providers, adolescents, and young women (AYW) in 10 communities from Lagos and Ibadan; two major cities in Nigeria. Findings indicated that the structural system of services provided in the health services at the primary healthcare level was limited, which posed a great challenge in AYW’s utilization of services for sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV). Some of the challenges identified by health providers included non-existing counseling services, rehabilitation centers, referral problems, and a lack of training for health providers in handling victims of SGBV. The study provided the context of the health providers’ inadequacy and structural problem of health services in providing comprehensive support services to victims of SGBV like adolescents and young women in the slum setting. This poses a barrier to the utilization of services by the survivors. Necessary inclusive services that will meet the need of the victims of SGBV should be in place at primary healthcare centers close to the people in the community for accessibility.

The paper focuses on the application of a multilevel, integrative and territorial approach to the protection of cultural heritage through planning instruments in Serbia. It points out the problems of the sectoral approach and discusses international recommendations that can be integrated into the planning methodology. The case study is the area of Djerdap National Park, which has an already established international and national importance. The research suggests that the cultural heritage in the area, with the exception of the Roman limes, is still recognized at the level of individual localities. The study emphasizes the importance of aligning all levels of governance to safeguard the whole spatial entity rather than focusing solely on its particular areas. The interna-tional and national importance of the planning area contributes to the strengthening of awareness of heritage and its institutional protection. However, the vitality of the area, which is key to its sustainable development, comes from the local level. Planning documents contribute to the inte-gration of local values and local communities into development programs and projects.

Glycosidic linkage analysis was conducted on the unfractionated polysaccharides in the alcohol-insoluble residues (AIRs) prepared from six red seaweeds (Gracilariopsis sp., Prionitis sp., Mastocarpus papillatus, Callophyllis sp., Mazzaella splendens, and Palmaria palmata) using GC-MS/FID analysis of partially methylated alditol acetates (PMAAs). The cell walls of P. palmata primarily contained mixed-linkage xylans and small amounts of sulfated galactans and cellulose. In contrast, the unfractionated polysaccharides of the other five species were rich in galactans displaying diverse 3,6-anhydro-galactose and galactose linkages with varied sulfation patterns. Different levels of cellulose were also observed. This glycosidic linkage method offers advantages for cellulose analysis over traditional monosaccharide analysis that is known for underrepresenting glucose in crystalline cellulose. Relative linkage compositions calculated from GC-MS and GC-FID measurements showed that anhydro sugar linkages generated more response in the latter detection method. This improved linkage workflow presents a useful tool for studying polysaccharide structural variations across red seaweed species. Furthermore, for the first time, relative linkage compositions from GC-MS and GC-FID measurements, along with normalized FID and total ion current (TIC) chromatograms without peak assignments, were analyzed using principal component analysis (PCA) as a proof-of-concept demonstration of the technique's potential to differentiate various red seaweed species.

Background: Educating college students about the importance of good sleep habits could lead to the adoption of healthier sleep routines, including sufficient sleep duration and sleep quality. The current pre-post study examines the impact of completing a sleep education program called “Sleep 101” on (1) sleep hygiene practices, (2) sleep quality, and (3) weekday and weekend sleep behaviors among college students. “Sleep 101” is an interactive online course developed to educate college students about the importance of sleep by addressing basic sleep physiology, the impact of sleep on mood, academic and physical performance, the interactions between sleep and various substances, and common sleep disorders. Methods: 338 college students were recruited from a midsized public university in the US and invited to participate in “Sleep 101”, of which 25 participants completed the baseline and post-intervention questionnaire. The Sleep Hygiene Index (SHI) was utilized to evaluate sleep hygiene practices, while standard questions were employed to assess weekday and weekend sleep behaviors and overall sleep quality. Results: Those who completed the study demonstrated a significant increase in weekday sleep duration and were less likely to engage in negative prior bedtime activities. In addition, 40% of those who completed baseline and post-intervention assessments noticed improvements in their sleep quality. Conclusion: These findings suggest that a brief online program is beneficial in improving sleep behaviors among college and could be a scalable approach to addressing current sleep issues and preventing future sleep problems in college students.

The profile of secondary metabolites occurring in apple cuticular layer is not only characteristic for particular apple cultivar, but also dynamically reflects various external factors in growing environment. In this study, the possibility to authenticate apple samples based on analysis of their cuticular layer extracts was investigated. Ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to high resolution tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-HRMS/MS) was employed for obtaining metabolomic fingerprints. In total, 274 authentic apple samples, four cultivars harvested within the seasons 2020 to 2022 in the Czech Republic and Poland were analysed. The generated complex data processed by univariate and multivariate statistical methods enabled to build classification models for discrimination of apple cultivars as well as their geographical origin. The models showed very good performance in differentiation of Czech and Polish samples for three of four cultivars: ‘Gala’, ‘Golden Delicious’ and ‘Idared’, moreover, the validity of the models was verified over harvest seasons. The diagnostic markers, besides metabolites of triterpene biosynthetic pathway, mainly represented wax esters. ‘Jonagold’, which is known to be susceptible to mutations, was the only cultivar for which the unambiguous classification of geographical origin was not possible.

Strawberry root rot caused by Neopestalotiopsis clavispora is one of the main diseases of strawberry and significantly impacts the yield and quality of strawberry fruit. There are now no effective control techniques available except for fungicide sprays, which may directly impact consumers. Biological control is becoming an alternative method for the control of plant diseases to replace or decrease the application of traditional synthetic chemical fungicides. Trichoderma is widely used as a biological agent for controlling strawberry root rot. In order to provide resources for screening the highly effective biocontrol fungus for controlling strawberry root rot caused by Neopestalotiopsis clavispora, the biocontrol mechanism,the control effects of Trichoderma asperellum CMT10 against strawberry root rot and growth-promoting effects on strawberry seedlings were investigated by plate culture, microscopy observation and root drenching methods.The results showed that CMT10 had obvious competitive, antibiotic and hyperparasitism effects on Neopestalotiopsis clavispora CMGF3. The CMT10 could quickly occupy nutritional space, and the inhibition rates of CMT10 against CMGF3 in confrontation culture on 7 d was 65.49%. The inhibition rates of volatile metabolite and fermentation metabolite produced by CMT10 against CMGF3 were 79.67% and 69.84%, respectively. The mycelium of strain CMT10 can act as hyperparasites by making contacting, winding and penetrating hyphae of CMGF3. Pot experiment showed that the biocontrol efficacy of CMT10 on strawberry root rot caused by Neopestalotiopsis clavispora was 63.00%. CMT10 had obvious promotion effect on strawberry growth, the plant height, root length, total fresh weight, root fresh weight, stem fresh weight and root dry weight, with the promotion rates were 20.09%, 22.39%, 87.11%, 101.58%, 79.82% and 72.33%, respectively. Overall, this study showed the ability of Trichoderma asperellum CMT10 to control strawberry root rot and their potential to develop as novel biocontrol agents to replace chemical fungicides for eco-friendly, sustainable agriculture.

Apis mellifera, especially weak ones, are highly vulnerable to Carpoglyphus lactis mites, which can rapidly infest and consume stored pollen, leading to weakened colonies and potentially colony collapse. This study aimed to ascertain and investigate the prevalence of this mite in honeybee colonies across 9 provinces in the Republic of Korea (ROK). A total of 615 honeybee colonies were collected, from 66 apiaries during the spring and 58 apiaries during the summer of 2023. A 1,242 bp segment of the the Cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI) gene was amplified using the polymerase chain reaction method. The detection levels of C. lactis in the honeybees were compared between winter and summer. Based on the COI sequence analysis, the nucleotide sequence similarity of C. lactis mites isolated in the ROK with those from China (NC048990.1) was found to be 99.5%, and with those from the United Kingdom (KY922482.1) was 99.3%. This study is the first report of C. lactis in Korean apiaries. The findings in this study demonstrate a significantly higher detection rate in winter, which is 4.1 times greater than that in summer (p &lt; 0.001). Furthermore, the results underscore the usefulness of molecular diagnostic techniques for detecting C. lactis mites.

COX II containing a dual core CuA active site is one of the three core subunits of mitochondrial Cco, which plays a significant role in the physiological process. In this report, the full-length cDNA of COXⅡ gene was cloned from Sitophilus zeamais, which had an ORF of 684 bp encoding 227 amino acids residues. The predicted COXⅡ protein had a molecular mass of 26.2 kDa with pI value of 6.37, and multiple sequence alignment and phylogenetic analysis indicated that Sitophilus zeamais COXⅡ had high sequence identity 78.51% with the COXⅡ of other insect species, especially similarity to sitophilus oryzae. This gene was subcloned into the prokaryotic expression vector pET-32a, and induced by IPTG in E.coli Transetta (DE3) expression system. Finally the COXⅡ with 6-His tag was purified using affinity chromatography with Ni²⁺-NTA agarose. WB showed the recombinant COXⅡ was about 44 kD, and the concentration of fusion protein was 50μg/mL. UV-spectrophotometer and infrared spectrometer analysis showed that recombinant COXⅡ could catalyze the oxidation of substrate Cytc, and influenced by AITC. It was found that AITC could form a hydrophobic region with COXⅡ protein via molecular docking, besides, a sulfur atom of AITC structure could form a length of 2.9 Å hydrogen bond with Leu-31. These results will provide valuable information for elucidating the role of COXⅡ in Sitophilus zeamais responses to AITC, meanwhile, it will helpful to carry out a point mutation in AITC binding sites for the future research.