The Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) poses a significant global public health concern, especially in Africa. Since its first isolation in Tanzania in 1953, CHIKV has caused recurrent outbreaks, challenging healthcare systems in low-resource settings. Recent outbreaks in Africa highlight the dynamic nature of CHIKV transmission and the challenges of underreporting and underdiagnosis. Here, we review literature and analyze publicly available cases, outbreaks, and genomic data providing insights into the epidemiology, genetic diversity, and transmission dynamics of CHIKV in Africa. Our analyses reveal the circulation of geographically distinct CHIKV genotypes, with certain regions experiencing a disproportionate burden of disease. Phylogenetic analysis of sporadic outbreaks in West Africa suggests repeated emergence of the virus through enzootic spillover, which is markedly different from inferred transmission dynamics in East Africa, where the virus is often introduced from Asian outbreaks, including the recent reintroduction of the Indian Ocean lineage from the Indian subcontinent to east Africa. Furthermore, there is limited evidence of viral movement between these two regions. Understanding the history and transmission dynamics of outbreaks is crucial for public health planning. Despite advances in surveillance and research, diagnostic and surveillance challenges persist. This review and secondary analysis highlight the importance of ongoing surveillance, research, and collaboration to mitigate the burden of CHIKV in Africa and improve public health outcomes.

The lithium-ion batteries are widely used as a power source for portable devices, including cell phones. The useful life is about 2 years or 500 cycles, contributing to the generation of waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE). Mining of lithium and cobalt damages the environment and is onerous; therefore, sustainable alternatives, such as obtaining these elements from secondary sources as recycling of lithium-ion batteries, are essential to provide the inputs used in the sector. However, the metallurgical route which will used to recovering them must be considered, due to this work aims for a more environmentally favorable process using DL-malic acid 1.5 M and instead of compared with sulfuric acid 2 M, heat pretreatment of 1 h and 3 h, and for all conditions, experiments were carried out with and without adding the oxidizing agent hydrogen peroxide. The best yields occurred in presence of H2O2 10 % v/v, and heat pretreatment of 1 h: 33.49 % Co and 4.63 % Li, and 29.78 % Co e 3.44 % Li were recovered by sulfuric acid and DL-malic acid, respectively.

Epithelial–mesenchymal transition (EMT) is defined as a cellular process during which epithelial cells acquire mesenchymal phenotypes and behavior following the downregulation of epithelial features. EMT and its reversed process, the mesenchymal-epithelial transition (MET), and the special form of EMT, the endothelial-mesenchymal transition (EndMT), have been thought as a universal dogma controlling developmental and pathological processes. More than half a century of EMT study has made it a large research field and a mainstream concept. However, discrepancies and disputes over EMT and EMT research have also grown over time. Particularly, neither the epithelial and mesenchymal states/properties nor their regulatory networks nor specific markers have been defined, rendering the EMT, MET and EndMT concepts groundless. Moreover, EMT and MET effects should not be a cause, but rather a consequence of or an accompanying effect during developmental and pathological processes. EMT and MET represented by the change in cell shapes or adhesiveness or symbolized by EMT factors are biased interpretation of the overall change in cellular property and regulatory networks during development and cancer progression. The true meaning of EMT effects in some developmental and pathological processes, such as fibrosis, needs re-evaluation. But the core EMT factors are actually a few components of the regulatory networks of neural stemness, which determines tumorigenicity and pluripotency. The EMT effects in cancer progression and neural crest formation are wrong attribution of the role of neural stemness during cancer progression and the cell-intrinsic property of neural crest cells to the unknown mesenchymal state. It is time to reassess the significance of EMT and its related concepts in scientific research.

In the promptness of the COVID-19 outbreak, it would be very important to observe and estimate the pattern of diseases to reduce the contagious infection. To study this effect, we developed a COVID-19 analytical epidemic framework that combines with isolation and lockdown effect by incorporating five various groups of individuals. Then we analyze the model by evaluating the equilibrium points and analyzing their stability as well as determining the basic reproduction number. The extensive numerical simulations show the dynamics of a different group of the population over time. Thus, our findings based on the sensitivity analysis and the reproduction number highlight the role of outbreak of the virus that can be useful to avoid a massive collapse in Bangladesh and rest of the world. The outcome of this study concludes that outbreak will be in control which ensures the social and economic stability.

Susceptible, infective, recovered, and hospitalized/isolated individuals are placed on the cells of a nxn square lattice, where each cell is occupied by a single individual or is vacant. At discrete time units (typically one day each) all susceptibles and infectives execute a random movement and when a coincidence of the two types occurs the susceptible is converted to infective status according to some probability. Infectives are labelled by the number of days since originally infected. At each time increment the age label of the infectives is increased by one unit. When the label reaches a number like 15 or 20 days the susceptibles recover with some probability or become isolated/hospitalized. Upon reaching some age the latter types either recover or die. Probabilities for the movements and conversions from one status to another are implemented by random numbergeneration. Simulations were carried out to investigate the effect of several probability and age parameters, the size of population (proportional to nxn) and density (related to fraction of occupied cells), and the size of the movements. Mid-term gradual conversion of susceptibles to isolated was explored as intervention policy.

While there are many models of epidemic evolution perhaps the basis for such models finds itself in the lumped behavior expressed through the so-called SIR model (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) from which spring many related models. This paper discusses multiple analytic solutions to that equation including those that are available in closed analytic form and those for which at least one final integral has to be done numerically, so-called quasi-analytic solutions. The solutions are intrinsically time-dependent of course. The hope is that such an investigation will lead to a better understanding of when and how models can be of use in studying the dynamical evolution of diseases including, perhaps, the great influenza pandemic of 1918 together with later pandemics and epidemics not excluding the Covid-19 pandemic of the present day.

We present a new mathematical model of disease spread reflecting specialties of covid-19 epidemic by elevating the role social clustering of population. The model can be used to explain slower approaching herd immunity in Sweden, than it was predicted by a variety of other mathematical models; see graphs Fig. \ref{GROWTH2}. The hierarchic structure of social clusters is mathematically modeled with ultrametric spaces having treelike geometry. To simplify mathematics, we consider homogeneous trees with $p$-branches leaving each vertex. Such trees are endowed with algebraic structure, the $p$-adic number fields. We apply theory of the $p$-adic diffusion equation to describe coronavirus' spread in hierarchically clustered population. This equation has applications to statistical physics and microbiology for modeling {\it dynamics on energy landscapes.} To move from one social cluster (valley) to another, the virus (its carrier) should cross a social barrier between them. The magnitude of a barrier depends on the number of social hierarchy's levels composing this barrier. As the most appropriate for the recent situation in Sweden, we consider {\it linearly increasing barriers.} This structure matches with mild regulations in Sweden. The virus spreads rather easily inside a social cluster (say working collective), but jumps to other clusters are constrained by social barriers. This behavior matches with the covid-19 epidemic, with its cluster spreading structure. Our model differs crucially from the standard mathematical models of spread of disease, such as the SIR-model. We present socio-medical specialties of the covid-19 epidemic supporting our purely diffusional model.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has raised numerous questions concerning the shape and range of state interventions whose goals are to reduce the number of infections and deaths. The lockdowns, which have become the most popular response worldwide, are assessed as being an outdated and economically inefficient way to fight the disease. However, in the absence of efficient cures and vaccines, there is a lack of viable alternatives. In this paper we assess the economic consequences of the epidemic prevention and control schemes that were introduced in order to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. The analyses report the results of epidemic simulations that were obtained using the agent-based modelling methods under the different response schemes and their use in order to provide conditional forecasts of the standard economic variables. The forecasts were obtained using the DSGE model with the labour market component.

The original purpose of this article was to modify the original SIR equations to allow for a direct source of infection (without which the original equations would have no solutions unless one starts with an already infected population) and also to see to what extent one could obtain multiple outbreaks of an infectious disease. In the course of developing the basic ideas several other factors arose to take prominent roles.Perhaps one of the more salient factors is the point that choosing an arbitrary time to change conditions from say a lock-down for the population to a less stringent social behavior, such as allowing partial or complete opening of businesses and schools, etc. should be based on knowledge of the disease and its evolution. Such decisions are usually made by politicians who have less than full information concerning the consequences of their actions. Several examples are given to illustrate these points.

We study epidemic spreading in complex networks by a multiple random walker approach. Each walker performs an independent simple Markovian random walk on a complex undirected (ergodic) random graph where we focus on Barabási-Albert (BA), Erdös-Rényi (ER) and Watts-Strogatz (WS) types. Both, walkers and nodes can be either susceptible (S) or infected and infectious (I) representing their states of health. Susceptible nodes may be infected by visits of infected walkers, and susceptible walkers may be infected by visiting infected nodes. No direct transmission of the disease among walkers (or among nodes) is possible. This model mimics a large class of diseases such as Dengue and Malaria with transmission of the disease via vectors (mosquitos). Infected walkers may die during the time span of their infection introducing an additional compartment D of dead walkers. Infected nodes never die and always recover from their infection after a random finite time. This assumption is based on the observation that infectious vectors (mosquitos) are not ill and do not die from the infection. The infectious time spans of nodes and walkers, and the survival times of infected walkers, are represented by independent random variables. We derive stochastic evolution equations for the mean-field compartmental populations with mortality of walkers and delayed transitions among the compartments. From linear stability analysis, we derive the basic reproduction numbers R M , R 0 with and without mortality, respectively, and prove that R M < R 0 . For R M , R 0 > 1 the healthy state is unstable whereas for zero mortality a stable endemic equilibrium exists (independent of the initial conditions) which we obtained explicitly. We observe that the solutions of the random walk simulations in the considered networks agree well with the mean-field solutions for strongly connected graph topologies, whereas less well for weakly connected structures and for diseases with high mortality. Our model has applications beyond epidemic dynamics, for instance in the kinetics of chemical reactions, the propagation of contaminants, wood fires, among many others.

In this paper, we propose a new mathematical model based on the association between susceptible and recovered individual, where the association between susceptible and recovered individual is disturbed by white noise. This model is based on demographic changes and is used for long term behavior. We study the stability of equilibria of the deterministic model and prove the conditions for the extinction of diseases. Then, we investigate and obtain the critical condition of the stochastic epidemic model for the extinction and the permanence in mean of the disease with the white noise. To verify our results, we present some numerical simulations for real data related to disease.

The stability and optimal control for an SIS epidemic model with demographics and heterogeneous control strategies (immunization and quarantine) on complex networks are investigated. The epidemic threshold, disease-free and endemic equilibria are derived. Then, global asymptotical stability about the two equilibria are studied based on different methods. Furthermore, the optimal control issue about the system is also considered. We obtain the existence and uniqueness of the optimal control and optimal control tactics. Some numerical simulations were conducted to illustrate and supplement the theoretical results. Meanwhile, the effects of the combination of various immunization and quarantine schemes are studied and also compared with the optimal control strategies.

Monitored infection and vaccination rates during past past Corona waves are used to infer a posteriori two key parameter of the SIRV-epidemic model, namely the real time variation of the (i) ratio of recovery to infection rate and (ii) ratio of vaccination to infection rate. We demonstrate that using the classical SIR model the ratio between recovery and infection rates tends to overestimate the true ratio, that is of relevance in predicting the dynamics of an epidemics in the presence of vaccinations.

The dramatic outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics and its ongoing progression boosted the scientific community's interest in epidemic modelling and forecasting. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a simple mathematical model of epidemic outbreaks, yet for decades it evaded the efforts of the community to derive explicit solution. The present work demonstrates that this is a non-trivial task. Notably, it is proven that the explicit solution of the model requires the introduction of a new transcendental special function, related to the Wright's Omega function. The present manuscript reports new analytical results and numerical routines suitable for parametric estimation of the SIR model. The manuscript introduces iterative algorithms approximating the incidence variable, which allows for estimation of the model parameters from the numbers of observed cases. The numerical approach is exemplified with data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) for several European countries in the period Jan 2020 -- Jun 2020.

This paper presents a discrete compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered/Dead (SEIR/D) model to address the expansion of Covid-19 pandemic. When time passes, the status of the cells is determined by binary rules that update following both a neighbourhood and a delay pattern. The model assumes the environmental parameters have a crucial impact on the expansion of the disease so a grid is assigned to each parameter to model the single effect caused by this parameter. The expansion is then the weighted sum of all the grids. This proposal shows how the grid architecture, along with an update rule and a neighbourhood pattern is a valuable tool to model the pandemic expansion. This model has already been analyzed in previous works and compared with the corresponding continuous models solved by ordinary differential equations (ODE), coming to find the homologous parameters between both approaches. Thus, it has been possible to prove that the combination neighborhood-update rule is responsible for the rate of expansion and recovering/death of the illness. The delays (between Susceptible and Asymptomatic, Asymptomatic and Infected, Infected and Recovered/Dead) may have a crucial impact on both the peak of Infected and the Recovery/Death rate. This theoretical model has been successfully tested in the case of the dissemination of information through mobile social networks and in the case of plant pests.

In this paper, we proposed the numerical method called the variational iteration orthogonal collocation method (VIOCM), for the approximate solution of the deadly Corona virus model using Mamadu-Njoseh polynomials as basis functions. The proposed method is an elegant mixture of the variational iteration method (VIM) and the orthogonal collocation method (OCM). It was observed that the proposed method converges rapidly to the exact solution even as N increases. This suggests that the use of orthogonal polynomials as trial functions for the SEIR model is indeed an effective approximant as it produces the analytic solution at just few iterations. Resulting numerical evidences were compared with the standard variational iteration method as available in literature. All computational frameworks were executed with MAPLE software.

The ongoing outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia (also known as COVID-19) has triggered a series of stringent control measures in China, such as city closure, traffic restrictions, contact tracing and household quarantine. These containment efforts often lead to changes in the contact pattern among individuals of the population. Many existing compartmental epidemic models fail to account for the effects of contact structure. In this paper, we devised a pairwise epidemic model to analyze the COVID-19 outbreak in China based on confirmed cases reported during the period February 3rd--17th, 2020. By explicitly incorporating the effects of family clusters and contact tracing followed by household quarantine and isolation, our model provides a good fit to the trajectory of COVID-19 infections and is useful to predict the epidemic trend. We obtained the average of the reproduction number $R=1.494$ ($95\%$ CI: $1.483-1.507$) for Hubei province and $R=1.178$ ($95\%$ CI: $1.145-1.158$) for China (except Hubei), suggesting that some existing studies may have overestimated the reproduction number by neglecting the dynamical correlations and clustering effects. We forecasted that the COVID-19 epidemic would peak on February 13th ($95\%$ CI: February $9-17$th) in Hubei and 6 days eariler in the regions outside Hubei. Moreover the epidemic was expected to last until the middle of March in China (except Hubei) and late April in Hubei. The sensitivity analysis shows that ongoing exposure for the susceptible and population clustering play an important role in the disease propagation. With the enforcement of household quarantine measures, the reproduction number $R$ effectively reduces and epidemic quantities decrease accordingly. Furthermore, we gave an answer to the public concern on how long the stringent containment strategies should maintain. Through numerical analysis, we suggested that the time for the resumption of work and production in China (except Hubei) and Hubei would be the middle of March and the end of April, 2020, respectively. These constructive suggestions may bring some immeasurable social-economic benefits in the long run.

We present a modification of the logistic model of epidemics that takes into account the possibility that an epidemic can develop from multiple physically-distinct hot spots with a range of starting times. This produces an improved understanding of the time evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic taking place in the United States in the spring of 2020.

Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) is a swine wasting disease caused by coronavirus infection. It causes great economic damage to the swine industry worldwide. Despite the continued use of vaccines, PED outbreaks continue, highlighting the need to review the effectiveness of current vaccines and develop additional vaccines based on new platforms. Here, we review existing vaccine technologies for preventing PED and highlight promising technologies that may help control PED virus in the future.

Ongoing outbreak of pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) began in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and the number of new patients continues to increase. On the contrary to ongoing outbreak in China, however, there are limited secondary outbreaks caused by exported case outside the country. We here conducted simulations to estimate the impact of potential secondary outbreaks at a community outside China. Simulations using stochastic SEIR model was conducted, assuming one patient was imported to a community. Among 45 possible scenarios we prepared, the worst scenario resulted in total number of persons recovered or removed to be 997 (95% CrI 990-1,000) at day 100 and maximum number of symptomatic infectious patients per day of 335 (95% CrI 232-478). Calculated mean basic reproductive number (R0) was 6.5 (Interquartile range, IQR 5.6-7.2). However, with good case scenarios with different parameter led to no secondary case. Altering parameters, especially time to hospital visit could change the impact of secondary outbreak. With this multiple scenarios with different parameters, healthcare professionals might be able to prepare for this viral infection better.

In the context of the COVID-19 epidemic, and on the basis of the Theory of Dynamical Systems, we propose a simple model for the expansion of contagious diseases, with a particular focus on viral respiratory tracts. The infection develops through contacts between contagious and exposed people, with a rate proportional to contact duration and turnover, inversely proportional to the efficiency of protection measures, and balanced by the average immunological response. The obvious initial exponential increase is readily hindered by the size reduction of the exposed population. The system converges towards a stable attractor whose value is expressed in terms of the ratio C/D of contamination vs decay factors. Decreasing this ratio below a critical value leads to a tipping point beyond which the epidemic is over. By contrast, significant values of C/D may bring the system through a bifurcating hierarchy of stable cycles up to a chaotic behaviour.

Most studies modelling population mobility and the spread of infectious diseases, particularly using meta-population-multi-patched models, tend to focus on theoretical properties and numerical simulations of such models. There is relatively scanty literature published on fit, inference and uncertainty quantification on epidemic models with population mobility. In this research, we have used three estimation techniques to solve an inverse problem and quantify its uncertainty on a human mobility-based multi-patched epidemic model, using mobile phone sensing data and COVID-19 confirmed positive cases in Hermosillo, Mexico. First, we have utilized a Brownian bridge model using mobile phone GPS data to estimate residence and mobility parameters of the epidemic model. In the second step, we have estimated the optimal model epidemiological parameters by deterministically inverting the model using a Darwinian inspired evolutionary algorithm (EA) known as the genetic algorithm (GA). The third part of the analysis involves performing inference and uncertainty quantification on the epidemic model using two Bayesian Monte Carlo sampling methods: t-walk and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). The results show that the estimated model parameters and incidence adequately fit the observed daily COVID-19 incidence in Hermosillo. Moreover, the estimated parameters from HMC result into large credible intervals, improving their coverage for the observed and predicted daily incidences. We also observe improved predictions when using multi-patch model with mobility against the single-patch model.

A major challenge for the dissemination, replication, and reuse of epidemiological forecasting studies during COVID-19 pandemics is the lack of clear guidelines and platforms to exchange models in a Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) manner, facilitating reproducibility of research outcomes. During the beginning of pandemics, models were developed in diverse tools that were not interoperable, opaque without traceability and semantics, and scattered across various platforms - making them hard to locate, infer and reuse. In this work, we demonstrate that implementing the standards developed by the systems biology community to encode and share COVID-19 epidemiological models can serve as a roadmap to implement models as a tool in medical informatics, in general. As a proof-of-concept, we encoded and shared 24 epidemiological models using the standard format for model exchange in systems biology, annotated them with cross-references to data resources, packed up all associated files in COMBINE archives for easy sharing, and finally, disseminated the models through BioModels repository to significantly enhance their reproducibility and repurposing potential. We recommend the use of systems biology standards to encode and share models of epidemic and pandemic forecasts to improve their findability, accessibility, interoperability, reusability, and reproducibility.

Less aligned emphasis has been given to the COVID-19 infodemic coordinating with the COVID-19 outbreak. Global profusion of tangled monikers and hashtags has found their ways in daily communication and contributed to backlash against Chinese. Official naming efforts against infodemic should be meet with a fair share of identification. Based on brief critical reviews on previous multifarious naming practices, we punctuate heuristic introspection in scientific conventions and sociocultural paradigms. Infodemiological analysis promises to articulate that people around the globe are divided in their favor stigmatized monikers in the public and scientific communities because of perceptual bias. There is no positive correlation between the degree of infection in their territories and collective perceptual bias to COVID-19. The official portfolio “COVID-19” and “SARS-CoV-2” has not become de facto standard usages, but full-fledged official names are excepted to duly contribute to the resilience of negative perceptual bias and collective behavioral propensities.

This article investigates a proposed new mathematical model that considers the infected individuals using various rate coefficients such as transmission, progression, recovery and vaccination. The fact that the dynamic analysis is completely determined by the basic reproduction number is established. More specifically, local and global stabilities of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium are proved under certain parameter conditions when the basic reproduction number is below or above unity. A realistic computer simulation is performed for better understanding of the variations in trends of different compartments after the outbreak of the disease.

This study mainly explores the effect of policy formalism, equipment insufficiency, covid-19 fear and job insecurity on construction workers’ insomnia during the epidemic. The main contribution of this article is to introduce policy formalism into the exploration of the causes of insomnia among construction site workers during the epidemic. This study collected 733 valid samples of construction site workers. We tested the established hypotheses using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling. The research results found that equipment insufficiency positively affects Covid-19 fear. Policy formalism and Covid-19 fear positively affect job burnout. Social support negatively affects job burnout. Job burnout and job insecurity positively affect insomnia.

Symmetry concepts in parametrized dynamical systems may reduce the number of external parameters by a suitable normalization prescription. If, under the action of a symmetry group G, parameter space A becomes a (locally) trivial principal bundle, A ~ A/G x G, then the normalized dynamics only depends on the quotient A/G. In this way, the dynamics of fractional variables in homogeneous epidemic SI(R)S models, with standard incidence, absence of R-susceptibility and compartment independent birth and death rates, turns out to be isomorphic to (a marginally extended version of) Hethcote's classic endemic model, first presented in 1973. The paper studies a 10-parameter master model with constant and I -linear vaccination rates, vertical transmission and a vaccination rate for susceptible newborns. As recently shown by the author, all demographic parameters are redundant. After adjusting time scale, the remaining 5-parameter model admits a 3-dimensional abelian scaling symmetry. By normalization we end up with Hethcote's extended 2-parameter model. Thus, in view of symmetry concepts, reproving theorems on endemic bifurcation and stability in such models becomes needless.

This paper studies pandemic viruses that spread during the period (1759–2020) according to solar activity cycles. Our findings and results include the following: (1) The severity of a pandemic correlates negatively with the strength of solar activity; (2) Pandemic viruses are classified into three types based on their compatibility with solar activity associations. Most of them spread through the quiet Sun, where viruses survive better in cold and rainy weather, and in stable geomagnetic fields without strong disturbances; (3) The emergence of new strains of influenza viruses was manifested in two ways. First, the annual epidemics due to antigenic drift. Second, pandemics recur every 1–12 solar cycles (about 11–120 years) due to viral reassortment of new subtypes, which results in antigenic shifts; (4) Pandemic viruses have two groups according to their recurring period: first, recurring in nine solar cycles; second, recurring in twelve solar cycles. Furthermore, we reassort pandemic viruses from their previous spread in the same periodic classification. Moreover, we derive a periodicity formula for each subtype of the pandemic virus as a spread date.

In India the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reported on 30 January 2020, and thereafter cases were increasing daily after the last week of Feb. 2020. COVID-19 identified as family member of coronaviridae where previously Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS belongs to same family. The COVID-19 attacks on respiratory system signing fever, cough and breath shortness, in severe cases may cause pneumonia, SARS or some time death. The aim of this study work is to develop model which predicts the epidemic peak for COVID-19 in India by using the real-time data from 30 Jan to 10 May 2020. There are uncertainties while identifying the population information due to the incomplete and inaccurate data, we initiate the most popular model for epidemic prediction i.e Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, & Recovered SEIR initially the compartmental model for the prediction. Based on the solution of the state estimation problem for polynomial system with Poisson noise, we estimate that the epidemic peak may reach the early-middle July 2020, initializing recovered R0 to 0 and Infected I0 to 1. The outcomes of the model will help epidemiologist to isolate the source of the disease geospatially and analyze the death. Also government authorities will be able to target their interventions for rapidly checking the spread of the epidemic.

This study presents a dynamic modeling approach to investigate the impact of saturation dynamics on HIV/AIDS transmission in the presence of vertical transmission and treatment strategies. The proposed model incorporates disease-free and endemic equilibria, with a focus on analyzing the basic reproduction number and conducting stability analysis. Results indicate that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable under certain conditions. The findings suggest that a combination of treatment interventions and awareness campaigns, along with other control measures, may play a crucial role in curbing the spread of the HIV/AIDS virus. This research contributes to understanding the complex dynamics of HIV/AIDS epidemics and highlights the importance of considering saturation effects in epidemic modeling.

Our study essentially concerns the dynamic behavior of an SIRS epidemic model in discrete time. Two equilibrium points are obtained; one is disease-free while the other is endemic. We are interested in the endemic fixed point as well as its asymptotic stability. Depending on the parameters which are estimated using the data from US Department of health and SIRS modelling with optimization, two Flip and Transcritical bifurcations appear. We illustrate their diagrams, as well as their bifurcation curves using the method of Carcasses \cite{carcasses1993determination,carcasses1995singularities} for the Flip bifurcation and by an implicit function deduced from such an equation for the Transcritical bifurcation. We use the scanning of the parametric plane to have a global view of the behavior of the model and to highlight the zones of stability of the existing singularities. A superposition of the bifurcation curves with the parametric plane can show the overlap of the curves with the boundaries of the stability domains, which confirms the smooth running of the simulation and its correspondence with the theory, we finish this article with constrained optimal control applied to infection rate and recruitment rate for an SIRS discrete epidemic model. Pontryagin's maximum principle is used to determine these optimal controls. Finally using COVID-19 data in the USA, we obtain results that demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy to mitigate the spread of the pandemic.

Monitored differential infection rates of past Corona waves are used to infer, a posteriori, the real time variation of the ratio of recovery to infection rate as key parameter of the SIR-epidemic model. From monitored Corona waves in five different countries it is found that this ratio exhibits a linear increase at early times below the first maximum of the differential infection rate before the ratios approach a nearly constant value close to unity at the time of the first maximum with small amplitude oscillations at later times. The observed time dependencies at early times and at times near the first maximum agree favorably well with the behavior of the calculated ratio for the Gaussian temporal evolution of the rate of new infections, although the predicted linear increase of the Gauss ratio at late times is not observed.

Amidst the escalating demands for efficient Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) management, the significance of accurate Origin-Destination (OD) data prediction has emerged as a paramount concern, given its indispensable role in the ITS domain. This paper introduces a groundbreaking integrated model, creatively fusing the unique strengths of Graph Convolutional Network (GCN), Residual Neural Network (ResNet), and Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM) into a single architecture, which we name GraphResLSTM, to exploit road segment average speed data for OD prediction. Compared with conventional road segment traffic volume data, average speed data is more readily available, significantly reducing the data accessibility barrier for OD prediction. We underscore the critical role of selection of key road segments and employs a combination of Entropy Weight Method and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to identify 41 representative road segments from the experimental road network. In the experimental phase, we simulate 86400000 seconds of traffic conditions, generating a total of 1440000 data records. Utilizing these simulated data, we design and conduct comparative experiments between models as well as data types. The results demonstrate that both the GraphResLSTM model and road segment average speed data outperform other models and data types notably in OD prediction tasks.

Background: Metabolic flux analysis (MFA) is an indispensable tool in metabolic engineering. The simplest variant of MFA relies on an overdetermined stoichiometric model of the cell’s metabolism under the pseudo-steady state assumption, to evaluate the intracellular flux distribution. Despite its long history, the issue of model error in the overdetermined MFA, particularly misspecifications of the stoichiometric matrix, has not received much attention. Method: We evaluated the performance of statistical tests from linear least square regressions, namely Ramsey RESET test, F-test and Lagrange multiplier test, in detecting model misspecifications in the overdetermined MFA, particularly missing reactions. We further proposed an iterative procedure using the F-test to correct such an issue. Result: Using Chinese hamster ovary and random metabolic networks, we demonstrated that: (1) a statistically significant regression does not guarantee high accuracy of the flux estimates, (2) the removal of a reaction with a low flux magnitude can cause disproportionately large biases in the flux estimates, (3) the F-test could efficiently detect missing reactions, and (4) the proposed iterative procedure could robustly resolve the omission of reactions. Conclusion: Our work demonstrated that statistical analysis and tests could be used to systematically assess, detect and resolve model misspecifications in the overdetermined MFA.

The Dark Web is known as a place triggering a variety of criminal activities. Anonymization techniques enable illegal operations, leading to the loss of confidential information and its further use as bait, a trade product or even a crime tool. Despite technical progress, there is still not enough awareness of the Dark Web and its secret activity. In this study, we introduced the Dark Web Enhanced Analysis (DWEA), in order to analyze and gather information about the content accessed on the Dark Net based on data characteristics. The research was performed to identify how the Dark Web has been influenced by recent global events, such as the COVID-19 epidemic. The research included the usage of a crawler, which scans the network and collects data for further analysis with machine learning. The result of this work determines the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic on the Dark Net.

The studied solar pot is a recent invention, which gained a utility model protection in 2021 from the Hungarian Intellectual Property Office under patent number 5489. The device is made for environmentally friendly cooking or heating (by utilizing solar energy) of foods and liquids. Its structure is similar to a double pipe heat exchanger, it has an outer mantle and an inner cooking tank. The goals of the paper are proposing a new physically-based mathematical model describing the solar pot and carrying out computer experiments with it, assembling an experimental system of the pot connected with a solar collector and performing measurements on it. Based on the results, the solar pot can successfully be used for cooking or sterilizing foods or liquids during the studied time period, in Hungary.

Estimating the ocean’s subsurface thermohaline information from satellite measurements is essential for understanding ocean dynamics and El Niño phenomenon. This paper proposes an improved double-output Residual Neural Network (DO-ResNet) model to concurrently estimate the ocean subsurface temperature (OST) and ocean subsurface salinity (OSS) in the tropical Western Pacific using multi-source remote sensing data, including sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface height anomaly(SSHA), sea surface wind (SSW), and geographical information (including longitude (LON) and latitude (LAT)). In the model experiment, Argo data were used to train and validate the model, and the root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and coefficient of determination (R²) were employed to evaluate the model's performance. The results showed that the sea surface parameters selected in this study have a positive effect on the estimation process, and the average RMSE and R² values for estimating OST (OSS) by the proposed model are 0.34 °C (0.05 psu) and 0.91 (0.95), respectively. Under the data conditions considered in this study, DO-ResNet demonstrates superior performance relative to the extreme gradient boosting model, random forest model, and artificial neural network model. Additionally, this study evaluates the model’s accuracy by comparing its estimations of OST and OSS across different depths with Argo-derived data, demonstrating the model's ability to effectively capture the most spatial features, and by comparing NRMSE across different depths and seasons, the model displays strong seasonal adaptability. In conclusion, this research introduces a novel artificial intelligence technique for estimating OST and OSS in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean.

Pulmonary Embolism (PE) is the obstruction of blood arteries in the lungs by a blood clot. The mortality risk for PE is approximately 30%. Detecting pulmonary embolism in the segmental arteries of the lung is more challenging than in the main arteries and is very prone to being missed. A computer-based approach was created in this work to automatically identify pulmonary embolism in the segmental arteries using computed tomography images. The system's infrastructure includes an enhanced Mask R-CNN deep neural network that has been trained with images containing PE. The network accurately identifies the location of the pulmonary embolism on the computed tomography picture and successfully extracts its borders. The investigation was conducted by generating a local dataset. The study's performance was evaluated using pulmonary embolisms identified manually by the expert radiologist. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, dice coefficient, and Jaccard index values for 2130 pictures were 96.4%, 93.5%, 96.1%, 0.96, and 0.90, respectively. The improved Mask R-CNN model has demonstrated superior performance when compared to the traditional Mask R-CNN and U-Net models. This high-performance technology is designed to identify pulmonary embolism and will aid professionals in assessing the size of the embolism.

In order to shorten the detection time and improve the average precision on embedded devices, A lightweight and high accuracy model is proposed for passion fruit in complex environments (backlight, occlusion, overlap, sunny, cloudy, rainy). Firstly, replacing the backbone network of YOLOv5 with a lightweight GhostNet model reduces the number of parameters and computation while improving detection speed. Secondly, a new feature branch is added to the GhostNet network, and the feature fusion layer in the neck network is reconstructed to effectively combine the lower-level and higher-level features, which not only improves the accuracy of the model but also maintains its lightweight. Finally, the knowledge distillation methods are used to transfer the knowledge from the more capable teacher model to the less capable student model, which significantly improving the detection accuracy. The improved model is denoted as G-YOLO-NK. The average accuracy of the G-YOLO-NK network is 96.00%, which is 1.00% higher than the original YOLOv5s model. Furthermore, the improved model size is 7.14MB, reduced to half of the original model, and the real-time detection frame rate is 11.25 FPS on the Jetson Nano. Compared to the state-of-the-art model, the proposed model outperforms them in terms of average precision and detection performance. The present work provides an effective model for real-time detection of passion fruits in complex orchard scenes, which can provide valuable technical support for the development of orchard picking robots and greatly improve the intelligence level of orchards.

This paper aims to demonstrate how the detection of communities for epidemiological networks can be used to reduce the dimensionality of optimal control problems. A range of planted partition stochastic blockmodels are generated, where the underlying communities in the model vary in detectability. A high-performance computing workflow is then used to simulate and estimate reduced model dynamics for the networks, which in turn is used to find optimal control solutions.

Public safety and intelligent surveillance systems critically depend on anomaly behavior detection for effective monitoring. In real-world pedestrian detection scenarios, prevalent challenges such as missed detections, complex background interference, and small target sizes hinder accurate anomaly identification. To address these issues, this study introduces YOLO-ABD, a lightweight method for anomaly behavior detection that integrates small target detection and channel shuffling. This method employs YOLOv8n as the baseline model, incorporating a small target detection mechanism in the Head part and utilizing GSConv convolution in the Backbone to enhance perceptual capability. Additionally, the SimAM attention mechanism is integrated to mitigate complex background interference, thereby improving target detection performance. Evaluation on the IITB-Corridor dataset demonstrated mAP50 and mAP50-95 scores of 89.3% and 60.6%, respectively. Generalization testing on the street-view-gdogo dataset further highlighted the superiority of YOLO-ABD over advanced detection algorithms, underscoring its effectiveness and generalizability. With a relatively small parameter count, YOLO-ABD presents an excellent lightweight solution for pedestrian anomaly behavior detection.

Currently there are fewer depth models applied to pepper picking detection, while the existing generalized neural networks have problems such as large model parameters, long training time, and low model accuracy.In order to solve the above problems, this paper proposes a Yolo-chili target detection algorithm for chili pepper detection. First, the classical target detection algorithm yolov5 is used as a benchmark model, and an adaptive spatial feature pyramid structure combining the attention mechanism and the idea of multi-scale prediction is introduced to improve the model's detection effect on occluded peppers and small target peppers. Secondly, a three-channel attention mechanism module is introduced to improve the algorithm's long-distance recognition ability and reduce the interference of redundant testers. Finally, the quantized pruning method is used to reduce the model parameters and realize the lightweight processing of the model. Applying the method to the homemade chili pepper dataset, the AP value of chili pepper reaches 93.11%; the accuracy rate is 93.51% and the recall rate is 92.55%.The experimental results show that yolo-chili is able to achieve accurate and real-time pepper detection under complex orchards.

The first attempt to control and mitigate an epidemic outbreak caused by a previously unknown virus occurs primarily via non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In case of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which since the early days of 2020 caused the COVID-19 pandemic, NPIs aimed at reducing transmission enabling contacts between individuals. The effectiveness of contact reduction measures directly correlates with the number of individuals adhering to such measures. Here, we illustrate by means of a very simple compartmental model how partial noncompliance with NPIs can prevent these from stopping the spread of an epidemic.

Session-based recommendations which aim to predict subsequent user-item interaction based on historical user behavior during anonymous sessions can be challenging tasks. Two main challenges need to be addressed and improved: (1) How to analyze these sessions to accurately and completely capture users’ preferences, and (2) how to identify and eliminate any interference caused by noisy behavior. Existing methods have not adequately addressed these issues since they either neglected the valuable insight that can be gained from analyzing consecutive groups of items or failed to take these noisy data in sessions seriously and handled them properly, which can jointly impede recommendation systems from capturing users’ real intentions. To address these two problems, we designed a multi-order semantic denoising (MSD) model for session-based recommendations. Specifically, we grouped items of different lengths as varying multi-order semantic units to mine the user’s primary intention from multiple dimensions. Meanwhile, a novel denoising network was designed to alleviate the interference of noisy behavior and provide a more precise session representation. The result of extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrated that the proposed MSD model exhibited improved performance compared with existing state-of-the-art methods in session-based recommendation.

Day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers, and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participate in predicting the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, Fixed Weight Method (FWM) and Varying Weight Method (VWM), for selecting each hour's expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features derived from information such as past electricity price data, weather data, and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than both the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF) method and our own previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) alone do on the datasets for New York, Australian, and Spanish electricity markets.

The SK model proposed by Sherrington and Kirkpatrick is an important mean field model for spin glasses. The dependence structure of Hamiltonians of the SK model is considered in this paper. We have investigated the covariance matrix of Hamiltonians of the SK model, and establish a relationship between the rank of the corresponding covariance matrix and the dimension of the space spanned by the Hamiltonians. Finally, we also give an upper bound for the rank of the covariance matrix, which might be the best.

We applied a generalized SEIR epidemiological model to the recent SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the world, with a focus on Italy and its Lombardia, Piemonte, and Veneto regions. We focus on the application of a stochastic approach in fitting the model numerous parameters using a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) solver, to improve the reliability of predictions in the medium term (30 days). We analyze the official data and the predicted evolution of the epidemic in the Italian regions, and we compare the results with data and predictions of Spain and South Korea. We link the model equations to the changes in people’s mobility, with reference to Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. We discuss the effectiveness of policies taken by different regions and countries and how they have an impact on past and future infection scenarios.

Geothermal energy, being a clean energy source, has immense potential, and accurate wellbore modeling is crucial for optimizing the drilling process and ensuring safety. This paper presents a novel geothermal wellbore model based on the drift-flux approach, tested under three different temperature and pressure well conditions. The proposed model integrates the conservation equations of mass, momentum, and energy, incorporating the gas-liquid two-phase flow drift-flux model and heat transfer model. Key features include handling heat transfer between the for-mation and the wellbore, addressing the slip relationship between gas and liquid phases, and accounting for wellbore friction. The nonlinear equations are discretized using the finite differ-ence method, and the highly nonlinear system is solved using the Newton-Raphson method. Numerical simulation, validation, and comparison with existing models demonstrate the en-hanced accuracy of this model. In our tests, the model achieved high accuracy in calculating bottom hole pressure and temperature, with Mean Relative Errors (MRE) significantly lower than those of other models. These results offer valuable insights for optimizing drilling parameters and ensuring drilling safety. Comparisons indicate that this approach significantly outperforms others in capturing the complex dynamics of geothermal wellbores, making it a superior tool for geo-thermal energy development.

With the development of deep learning, several Graph Neural Networks (GNN)-based approaches have been utilized for text classification. However, GNNs encounter challenges in capturing contextual text information within a document sequence. To address this, a novel text classification model RB-GAT is proposed by combining RoBERTa-BiGRU embedding and a multi-head Graph ATtention Network (GAT). First, the pre-trained RoBERTa model is exploited to learn word and text embeddings in different contexts. Second, the Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU) is employed to capture long-term dependencies and bidirectional sentence information from the text context. Next, the multi-head graph attention network is applied to analyze this information, which serves as a node feature for the document. Finally, the classification results are generated through a Softmax layer. Experimental results on three benchmark datasets demonstrate that our method can achieve an accuracy of 71.48%, 98.45%, and 80.32% on Ohsumed, R8, and MR, which is superior to the existing nine text classification approaches.

This study addresses the implementation of the International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) in the European Union as of January 1, 2018, replacing the International Accounting Standard 39 (IAS 39) to introduce a new model for recognizing Loan Loss Provisions (LLP) based on Expected Credit Loss (ECL). This model responds to criticisms of the former Incurred Credit Loss (ICL) system for its inability to reflect credit losses in a timely manner, potentially exacerbating the effects of financial crises (Bushman &amp; Williams, 2015; Gebhardt &amp; Novotny-Farkas, 2011). The study focuses on the effects of adopting the ECL model on the level of Loan Loss Allowances (LLA) in loans, own equity, and the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio across 13 Portuguese commercial banks. A mean comparison test is used to evaluate scenarios before and after the application of the ECL model, highlighting the importance of regulator actions and the adequacy of loss recognition policies, including the effects of Regulation (EU) 2017/2395 of December 12. The results obtained demonstrate significant negative impacts on the net values of loans, own equity, and the CET1 ratio upon adopting the IFRS 9 ECL model, due to the widespread increase in LLAs.

Our aim is to provide an insight of the procedures and the dynamics that lead the spread of contagious diseases through populations. Our simulation tool can increase our understanding on the spatial parameters which affect the diffusion of a virus. SIR models are based on the hypothesis that populations are “well mixed”. Our model constitutes an attempt to focus on the effects of the specific distribution of the initially infected individuals through the population and provide insights, considering the stochasticity of the transmission process. For this purpose, we represent the population using a square lattice of nodes. Each node represents an individual that may or may not carry the virus. Nodes that carry the virus can only transfer it to susceptible neighboring nodes. This important revision of the common SIR model provides a very realistic property: the same number of initially infected individuals can lead to multiple paths, depending on their initial distribution in the lattice. This property creates better predictions and probable scenarios to construct a probability function and appropriate confidence intervals. Finally, this structure permits realistic visualizations of the results to understand the procedure of contagion and spread of a disease and the effects of any measures applied.

In this paper we provide an ``expository overview" of classic epidemic projection models. Starting with the simple case of an epidemic that grows exponentially we then investigate ``compartmental" models. These assume that the growth of an infected population is limited endogenously by the size of the underlying pool of susceptibles. We then describe a new family of so-called "Exo-r" statistical models, which hinge on an exogenously driven growth rate of the infected population. This family, which can be used to model both infections and deaths, captures parsimoniously both the depletion of susceptibles and the effect of interventions such as lockdowns and ``social distancing". The model is used to fit numbers of Covid-19 infections in China. It is also used to model and project deaths in the United States. Results are used to inform a discussion on i) the challenges at hand and ii) the extent to which epidemic projection models may be useful despite being wrong.

Non-pharmacological interventions in the fight against COVID 19 include: a) suppression, which facilitates its extinction; and b) mitigation, which reduces its speed of spread. Left unmitigated, the intensive care unit bed capacity (ICU) is exceeded over its maximum supply, resulting in increased deaths. Suppression has shown in simulation models the potential for decreasing ICU occupation below its surge limit, effectively decreasing mortality. However, for avoiding a rebound in transmission, suppression must be maintained intermittently until a vaccine is available (which may take up to 2 years). The objective of this paper was to describe the mortality patterns observed in Spain, Italy and South Korea for discussing a hypothetical combined public health policy and socioeconomic model that could potentially reduce mortality while reducing the economic impact of this pandemic in Spain. The plan is based on a progressive-voluntary reinstatement to work of the population exposed to the lowest risks (healthy non-immune family units <50 y/o and immune population) and it depends on having sufficiently available ICU beds for providing adequate support. This model, if proven correct for Spain, could eventually be followed by other countries facing a similar impact of the present pandemic.

By introducing environmental mediator, for avoiding randomness in selecting indicators and subjectivity in deciding interaction path coefficients to reveal interaction mechanism among forest industry, ecology and environmental capacity, structural Pressure–State–Impact–Response (PSIR) and quantitative Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) are utilized with data on thirty–one provinces of China. We can find that: (i) forest industry has a negative influence on ecology, whereas ecology has a positive influence on industry; (ii) the destructive influence that industry has on ecology is much greater than the positive effect ecology has on industry; and (iii) environmental capacity plays a partial mediating role between industry and ecology. According to these results we can conclude that: (i) forest industry and ecology are not in a symbiotic relationship and have not reached a level of ecological security; (ii) the interaction between industry and ecology is in a period of transition from antagonistic to beneficial; and (iii) industry dominates ecology. However, we prospect the following advice: (i) methods of forest industry should be changed; (ii) new modes of industrial integration and circular economy should be developed; and (iii) the ability of the environment to sustain itself should be enhanced. The level of forest ecological security to discuss the symbiotic mechanism of industry and ecology will propose to be measured in future.

The assortment of low-cost 3D printers for “in-practice” use, e.g., for clear aligner therapies, is ever increasing. To address concerns about the accuracy of orthodontic models produced on such printers when cost efficient modes of 3D printing are employed, this study examined the effect of print model body type and print angulation on accuracy. Six printing-configuration groups were included: 2 model types (solid or hollow shell) combined with 3 print angles (0°, 70°, or 90°) with 10 models/group; all models were printed with 100-µm layer thickness using a digital light processing-based 3-dimensional printer. Eleven selected structures and distances were measured on the printed models with a digital microscope and compared to the same measures on a digitized master model. The clinically-acceptability range was set at ±0.25 mm difference from the master model for single tooth measurements (intra-tooth) and ±0.5 mm for cross-arch measurements (inter-tooth). For individual measurements across all models, 98% fell within clinical acceptability. For mean measurements within each model group, only canine height for the shell-0° model had a mean difference (0.26 mm ± 0.03) outside the clinically acceptable range for intra-tooth measurements. Standard deviations for all intra-tooth measurements were within 0.07 mm. While none of the mean inter-tooth measurements exceeded the acceptability range, the standard deviations were larger (0.04 to 0.30 mm). Accuracy of orthodontic models for clear aligner therapies was not impacted beyond the clinically acceptable range when altering model body type and print angulation to improve efficiency of 3D printing. These findings suggest greater flexibility of the practitioner to alter print settings to address time and cost efficiency in various clinical scenarios and still maintain clinically acceptable model accuracy.

Considering characteristics of high river density, special underlying surface in plain river network region, and municipal drainage system function, river network drainage unit model is proposed, which is defined as a region surrounded by main river or embankment. Flood storage variety and control projects regulation of small rivers in each unit is simulated. With drainage catchment as an object, according to its drainage capacity, simplified municipal drainage model was developed. Coupling river network drainage unit model, simplified municipal drainage model and 2D flood routing model, urban flood analysis model for plain tidal river network region was developed, which could be applied to analyzing flood from upstream river, storm surge and local rainfall. Demonstration research was carried out in Puxi flood protected area in Shanghai.

Traffic sign detection plays a pivotal role in autonomous driving systems. The intricacy of the detection model necessitates high-performance hardware. Real-world traffic environments exhibit considerable variability and diversity, posing challenges for effective feature extraction by the model. Therefore, it is imperative to develop a detection model that is not only highly accurate but also lightweight. In this paper, we proposed YOLO-ADual, a novel lightweight model. Our method leverages the C3Dual and Adown lightweight modules as replacements for CPS and CBL modules in YOLOv5. The Adown module effectively mitigates feature loss during downsampling while reducing computational costs. Meanwhile, C3Dual optimizes the processing power for kernel feature extraction, enhancing computation efficiency while preserving network depth and feature extraction capability. Furthermore, the inclusion of the CBAM module enables the network to focus on salient information within the image, thus augmenting its feature representation capability. Our proposed algorithm achieves a [email protected] of 70.1% while significantly reducing the number of parameters and computational requirements to 51.83% and 64.73% of the original model, respectively. Compared to various lightweight models, our approach demonstrates competitive performance in terms of both computational efficiency and accuracy.

We propose a pricing formula for a defaultable zero-coupon bond with imperfect information under a regime-switching model using a structural form of credit risk modelling. While the value of the firm’s equity is observed continuously, we assume that the total value of the firm is only observed at discrete times, such as the dates of the release of the firm’s annual reports, or quarterly reports. This uncertainty about the true value of the firm results in credit spreads that do not approach zero as the debt approaches maturity, which is a problem with many structural models. The firm’s value is typically defined as its equity and debt; however, we consider the asset-to-equity ratio, an accounting ratio used to examine a firm’s financial well-being. A dependent regime-switching process models the components of this ratio, and the Markov chain represents the states of the economy. The main contribution is to study this problem when the dynamics of a firm’s assets have different parameters with regime changes.

The critical systems, which the failure and malfunction may result in human, environment and financial severe damages, are essential components in various sectors and particularly in energy domains. Although unwished, integration error problems in supervision of critical systems occurs, incurring significant expenses because of operator’s subjective analysis and on hardware topology failures. In this work, a malleable model design approach is proposed to formulate and solve the integration error problem in the critical systems supervision in terms of reliability. A real Hybrid Power Plant (HPP) case is considered as a requirement for a study case with simulated data. A method framework with informal approach (C4 diagram) and formal approach (Hierarchical Coloured Petri Nets) in radial spectrum is applied to the HPP supervision design. Using formal methods, a formulation and solution to this problem through structured, scalable and compact mathematical representations are possible. This malleable model intends to guarantee functional correctness and then reliability of the plant supervision system based on system software architecture. Outcomes suggest corroboration that the malleable model is appropriate for energy domain, and can be used for other types of critical systems, bringing all the benefits of this methodology to the context in which it will be applied.

In the intersection of the Internet of Things (IoT) and Machine Learning (ML), the choice between high-level and low-level programming libraries presents a significant dilemma for developers, impacting not only the efficiency and effectiveness of ML models but also their environmental footprint. We have proposed a comprehensive framework to aid in this decision-making process, underpinned by a detailed comparative analysis of both types of libraries on one of the key IoT ML task; image classification. We have introduced a novel algorithm designed to calculate the green footprint of ML model training, factoring in execution time, memory utilization, power consumption, and CPU temperature, addressing the urgent need for sustainable ML practices. Through an empirical evaluation of popular libraries such as PyTorch for high-level and Libtorch for low-level development, we have assessed their performance, development efficiency, and hardware compatibility. The culmination of our research is a decision support system that synthesizes the experimental findings to guide developers toward choices that harmonize model performance with environmental sustainability.

Results from an explorative study revealing spatio-temporal patterns of the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 epidemic in Germany are presented. We dispense with contestable model assumptions and show the intrinsic spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic dynamics. The analysis is based on COVID-19 incidence data, which are age-stratified and spatially resolved at the county level, provided by the Federal Government’s Public Health Institute of Germany (RKI) for public use. Although the 400 county-related incidence time series show enormous heterogeneity both with respect to temporal features as well as spatial distributions, the counties’ incidence curves organise into well distinguished clusters that coincide with East and West Germany. The analysis is based on dimensionality reduction, multidimensional scaling, network analysis, and diversity measures. Dynamical changes are captured by means of difference-in-difference methods which are related to fold changes of the effective reproduction numbers. The age-related dynamical patterns suggest a considerably stronger impact of children, adolescents and seniors on the epidemic activity than previously expected. Besides these concrete interpretations, the work mainly aims at providing an atlas for spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic which serves as a basis to be further explored with the expertise from different disciplines, particularly sociology and policy makers. The study should also be understood as a methodological contribution to getting a handle on the unusual complexity of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In this work, we consider two SIR patterns with demography: the classical pattern and a modified pattern with a linear transmission coefficient of the infection. By reformulating of each first order differential systems as a system with two second-order differential equations, we investigate the nonlinear dynamics of the system from the Jacobi stability point of view by using the KCC geometric theory. We will study the intrinsic geometric properties of the systems by determining the geometric associated objects: the zero-connection curvature tensor, the nonlinear connection, the Berwald connection, and the five KCC invariants: the first invariant - the external force εi, the second invariant - the deviation curvature tensor Pji, the third invariant - the torsion tensor Pjki, the fourth invariant - the Riemann-Christoffel curvature tensor Pjkli, and the fifth invariant - the Douglas tensor Djkli. In order to obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for the Jacobi stability near the equilibrium points, the deviation curvature tensor will be determined at each equilibrium points. Furthermore, we will compare the Jacobi stability with the classical linear stability, inclusive by diagrams related to the values of parameters of the system.

The state of epidemic emergency in force in our country since March and the related requirement to implement various sanitary procedures constitute problems for the operation of all companies. However, the unique operation of underground mining companies increases their scale considerably. However, despite initial turbulent moments related to the occurrence of an unknown threat, it was possible to stabilise the situation in all such companies as a result of implementing various anti-threat actions. Following the initial introduction to basic properties of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, the paper presents the results of the study (a case study) on actions taken in individual mining companies. There was an attempt to formulate the so-called good work practices recommended to be applied.

Most popular statistical models in epidemic evolution focus on the dynamics of average relevant quantities and overlooks the role of small fluctuations on the model parameters. Models for Covid-19 are no exception. In this paper we show that the role of time-correlated fluctuations, far from being negligible, can in fact determine the spreading of an epidemic and, most importantly, the resurgence of the exponential diffusion in the presence of time-limited episodes in promiscuity behaviours.

Purpose: This review highlights the global scenario of dengue outbreaks, dengue pathogenesis, symptoms, immune response, diagnosis methods and preventive measures which facilitates the better understanding of the global expansion and concerns relating to the disease. Recent Findings: A recent study showed that natural killer cells of the infected person become activated soon after the infection which may help in treatment and vaccine development. A research team has also produced synthetically engineered mosquitoes that can prevent the transmission and dissemination of the dengue virus by the activation of an antibody. Furthermore, a mutation in the protein envelope of the dengue virus leads to variation in shapes, developing resistance towards the vaccine. Summary: The mosquito vectors marked their worldwide distribution through an increasing number of reported cases which was further facilitated by the growth in the shipping and commerce industries. The immune system, through activation of the innate and adaptive immune responses, facilitates the recruitment of an array of leukocytes which help neutralize the virus. Apart from the laboratory standard PRNT method, several other dengue detection methods such as ELISA, RT-LAMP and several optical, microfluidic and electrochemical methods have been developed. The existence of the 4 different viral serotypes makes the secondary infection life-threatening and also leads to difficulties in vaccine development. Since Dengvaxia® (CYD-TDV) has its own set of drawbacks and limitations, several companies have been investing for the production of more potential vaccines that are currently in trial.

Classifying network flow subsequences in an Industrial IoT gateway is an effective method for identifying Industrial IoT faults. This paper proposes a subsequence classification algorithm SSGBUL-IKNN based on unsupervised learning encoding to address the problem of low classification accuracy. Firstly, we built a network module based on unsupervised learning to encode the flow sequence of the Industrial IoT gateway. In the encoding module, a subsequence calibration algorithm controls the increasing error during the coding process. Then, the specific fault type is obtained through an improved KNN classification algorithm based on the indication distance source from the integrated coding sequences converted by multi-dimensional network flow sequences. The test result on three Industrial IoT datasets of a sewage treatment plant shows that the accuracy of SSGBUL-IKNN in this paper exceeds 92%, significantly higher than the algorithm DTW and TSF. It reaches the classification requirements of Industrial IoT fault diagnosis.

The traffic light detection and recognition are crucial for enhancing the security of unmanned systems. This study proposes a YOLOv5-based traffic light detection algorithm to tackle the challenges posed by small targets and complex urban backgrounds. Initially, the mosaic-9 method is employed to enhance the training dataset, thereby boosting the network’s ability to generalize and adapt to real-world scenarios. Furthermore, the network incorporates the Squeezed-and-Excitation (SE) attention mechanism to improve. Moreover, the YOLOv5 algorithm’s loss function has been optimized by substituting it with EIoU_loss, which addresses issues like missed detection and false alarms. Experimental results demonstrate that the model , trained with this enhanced network, achieves a 99.4% mAP on a custom dataset, which is 6.3% higher than the original YOLOv5, while maintaining a detection speed of 74 f/s. Therefore, this algorithm offers higher detection accuracy and effectively meets real-time operational requirements.

CAMx-LPiG (Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions – Linear Plume in Grid) is an online hybrid model, based on the Chemistry and Transport Model (CTM) CAMx, that includes a sub-grid scale module to simulate the dispersion of linear road traffic emissions, called LPiG. LPiG is a plume in grid module specifically developed by extending the capabilities of the Lagrangian puff sub-grid model available in CAMx. The online integration of the local scale model within the Eulerian CTM allows for a multiscale simulation of air quality from the regional scale to the urban scale, preserving a coherent description of the chemical state of the atmosphere at all spatial scales and avoiding any double counting of the emissions simulated by the sub-grid module. In this work the model is presented and evaluated against measured NO2 concentrations for the city of Milan for the month of January 2017. The model is able to introduce road traffic induced gradient in NO2 concentration at sub-grid resolution. Moreover, CAMx-LPiG is shown to reduce the bias compared to CAMx stand-alone simulations.

To address the problems of insufficient semantic fusion between text and questions and the lack of consideration of global semantic information encountered in machine reading comprehension models, we proposed a machine reading comprehension model called BERT_hybrid based on BERT and hybrid attention mechanism. In this model, BERT is utilized to separately map the text and questions into the feature space. Through the integration of Bi-LSTM, attention mechanism, and self-attention mechanism, the proposed model achieves comprehensive semantic fusion between text and questions. The probabilities distribution of answers is computed using Softmax. Experimental results on the public dataset DuReader demonstrate that the proposed model achieves improvements in BLEU-4 and ROUGE-L scores compared to existing models. Furthermore, to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model design, we analyze the factors influencing the model’s performance.

Attribute reduction is a core technique in the rough set domain and an important step in data preprocessing. Researchers have proposed numerous innovative methods to enhance the capability of attribute reduction, such as the emergence of multi-granularity rough set models, which can effectively process distributed and multi-granularity data. However, these innovative methods still have many shortcomings, such as how to deal with complex constraints and how to perform multi-angle effectiveness evaluations. Based on the multi-granularity model, this study proposes a new method of attribute reduction, namely using multi-granularity neighborhood information gain ratio as the measurement criterion. This method combines both supervised and unsupervised perspectives, and by integrating multi-granularity technology with neighborhood rough set theory, constructs a model that can adapt to multi-level data features. This model can select the optimal granularity level or attribute set according to the requirements. Finally, the proposed method is experimented with on 15 UCI datasets against six other attribute reduction algorithms. The experimental outcomes, upon analysis and comparative review, substantiate the reliability and consistency of the attribute reduction approach introduced in this study.

Despite the growing capabilities of large language models, concerns exist about the biases they develop. In this paper, we propose a novel, automated mechanism for debiasing through specified dataset augmentation in the lens of bias producers that can be useful in a variety of industries, especially ones that are “restricted” and have limited data. We consider that bias can occur due to intrinsic model architecture and dataset quality. The two aspects are evaluated using two different metrics we created. We show that our dataset augmentation algorithm reduces bias as measured by our metrics.

This work presents a Fault-Tolerant Model Predictive Control (FTMPC) algorithm applied to a simulation model for sewer networks. The control system will aim to prevent contaminated water from escaping the network, especially during periods of heavy rainfall, that can cause combined sewer overflows (CSO), while maintaining the flow of water towards the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) as close as possible to its nominal value. The main purpose of the work is to preserve the operation of the predictive controller as much as possible, in accordance with its operational objectives, when there may be anomalies affecting the elements of the control system, mainly sensors and actuators. Comparing the results obtained considering various types of faults, with situations of normal controlled operation and with the behavior of the sewer network when no control is applied, will allow some conclusions to be drawn at the end.

The outbreak of COVID-19 is a public health emergency that caused disastrous results in many countries. The global aim is to stop transmission and prevent the spread of the disease. To achieve it, every country needs to scale up emergency response mechanisms, educate and actively communicate with the public, intensify infected case finding, contact tracing, monitoring, quarantine of contacts, and isolation of cases. Responding to an emergency requires efficient collaboration and a multi-skilled approach (medical, information, statistical, political, social, and other expertise), which makes it hard to define one interface for all. As actors from different perspectives and domain backgrounds need to address diverse functions, the possibility to exchange available information quickly would be desirable. Geoportal provides an entry point to access a variety of data (geospatial data, epidemiological data) and could be used for data discovery, view, download, and transformation. It helps to deal with challenges like data analysis, confirmed cases geocoding, recognition of disease dynamics, vulnerable groups identification, and capacity mapping. Predicting and modeling the spread of infection, along with application support for communication and collaboration, are the biggest challenges. In response to all these challenges, we have established the Epidemic Location Intelligence System (ELIS) using open-source software components in the cloud, as a working platform with all the required functionalities.

The epidemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) has brought many changes to people's life. This study aims to analysis Chinese people's psychological change and life after quarantining Wuhan and explore the influencing factors. Based on data from a web-survey after quarantining Wuhan (N=3268), the principal-component-analysis (PCA), multiple-linear-regression (MLR), propensity-score-matching (PSM) were used to explore the psychological change of people in China and the influencing factors. 83.3% of the respondents said that the impact of the epidemic on their life had increased after quarantining Wuhan. A considerable proportion of people's anxiety increased, being reflected in negative emotion, behavioral response and physiological response. The proportion of people who said their anxiety had increased in Wuhan was higher than that in other regions (p <0.05). The anxiety of people who were in medical isolation increased less than those who were not (p <0.05). All three aspects of people’s anxiety were positively related with time of medical isolation and degree of the attention on the epidemic (p＜0.05) except the effect of attention degree on the physiological response (p＝0.06). The measure of medical isolation at home should be advocated. Yet people should reduce the concern for the epidemic while paying attention to self-protection.

This short note proposes a national Geographic Information System (GIS) - based health infrastructure to deal with epidemics and pandemics. Currently, there is no pan-India health infrastructure available that can compile, update, and report the spread of epidemic diseases. It not only curtails the opportunity of finding the real-time data on the spatial distribution of a disease but prevents one to inquire into the causes of the disease through epidemiological analysis. The proposed infrastructure in this study is a pan-India one and can broadly be divided into two parts, hotspot mapping and accessibility to services. In the first part, hospitals are proposed to act as nodes of data collection, sending data to a national GIS portal. This portal shall have the capabilities of plotting the data using map rendering services such as Google and Bing Maps. This way, hotspots can be visualized in no time, benefitting the government and common citizenry alike. The second part deals with the accessibility of citizenry to a wide range of services, i.e., healthcare services, grocery outlets, emergency services, baby food, and many other essential services of the day to day life. In order to implement this, we propose that the government need to enforce a mandatory submission of locational coordinates of all Goods and Services Tax (GST) enrolled service providers. Once the coordinates are submitted, the government can effectively control the opening and closing of services and inform the citizenry at the same time. The proposed infrastructure is going to help deal with the extraordinary situations during epidemic and pandemics similar to what the world is currently facing in the form of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Furthermore, the infrastructure can be scaled up or down as per the spread of a disease. The health-GIS platform proposed in this concept paper, shall help India in controlling and managing the epidemic more efficiently.

BackgroundThe novel virus COVID-19, also known as SARS-CoV‑2, is currently rapidly spreading around the globe and pushing healthcare systems to the limits of their capacity. One of the functions of predictive models is to timely act for epidemic preparedness including hospital preparedness. In Egypt, like many other countries in the world, the epidemic situation and forecasting have not yet sufficiently studied. ObjectiveThe study was carried out to develop a short-term forecast scenario for the COVID-19 epidemic situation in Egypt and predict the hospital needs to accommodate the growing number of cases.MethodsSecondary data from the COVID-2019 daily reports and the report issued 8^th of April by the Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population were used. Due to the daily changing level of knowledge and data, the article reflects the status up to 18 April 2020. The prediction was based on the exponential growth rate model. For the depiction of the situation, the full length of the epidemic timeline was analyzed (from February 14^th till April 18^th). The growth rates and their rates of decline during the period from the 22^nd of March till the 18^th of April were calculated and extrapolated in the coming 7 weeks. The predicted hospital needs were assessed against the announced allocated resources.ResultsThe epidemic curve in Egypt is on the ascending arm as of April, 18. The active cases showed exponential growth from the start of the epidemic till April, 18. At the end of this period time, the recovery rate was 23.12% and the case fatality rate (CFR) was7.39. The case fatality rate median level during the last four weeks was 6.64. The active cases are expected to reach more than 20,000 by late May then starts to decline. The allocated regular hospital beds are predicted to show shortage by the time of the release of the paper. The intensive care units (ICU) beds and ventilators are predicted to show insufficiency on May 6.Conclusions: The COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt is expected to continue on the rise for the next few weeks and expected to start to decline late in May, 2020. Our estimates should be useful in preparedness planning. Serious actions should be taken to provide ICU beds and ventilators enough for the predicted number of cases that would need them, not later than the end of April. Mitigation actions have to continue for the coming 6 weeks or until the epidemic situation is more clearly seen.

In this work model of mirror elements equilibrium of the micromechanical components is developed, the behavior analysis of the mirror element of micromechanical mirrors in case changing of control voltages of electrostatic actuators is carried out, an expression for determining the maximum value of deflection voltage at which the snap-down effect will take the following form is obtained in case of the influence of the coefficient of the electrostatic rigidity of electrostatic actuators. The developed equilibrium model of mirror elements and the obtained results of modeling can be used at design of micromechanical mirrors with internal suspensions.

Background: In response to inflammation, the absorption of nutritional iron is restricted. Multiple inflammation-related signaling pathways can lead to ferroptosis, an iron-dependent mechanism of programmed cell death. Since the pathophysiological significance of the presence and uptake of iron in chronic inflammation is still unknown, we tested the effect of a low iron diet on the clinical course of arthritis in the mouse model of collagen-induced arthritis (CIA). Methods: Six- to eight-week-old male DBA/1 mice were fed either a normal or a low iron diet starting three weeks before arthritis induction. From day four after the collagen-booster made on day 25, the development of arthritis was regularly monitored until the end of the experiment (day 34), using a standard clinical arthritis score. The complete blood count was determined as well as Fe2+, Fe3+, oxidized and reduced glutathione (GSH and GSSG) and malondialdehyde (MDA) in whole paw tissue by ELISA. Quantitative PCR was performed from whole paw tissue for glutathione peroxidase 4 and other key regulator genes of iron metabolism and ferroptosis. We used nonparametric tests to com-pare markers of iron metabolism and ferroptosis as well as nonlinear regression models for longitu-dinal data for signs of arthritis. Results: Mice fed a low iron diet showed a significantly less severe course of arthritis compared to mice fed a normal iron diet (p

By repeated unloading and loading of the excavation dynamic and static loads, repeated train dynamic and static loads of multi-factors, the underpass tunnel, cross tunnel engineering influence area rock layer, the existing tunnel structure of the three constitutes a multifaceted structure, multi-factor interaction system. Existing tunnels into the prediction theory model of the new tunnel excavation process of dynamic and static loads, dynamic and static loads of existing tunnels are mostly analyzed individually, the results of synergistic analysis needs to be improved. Based on the theory of the current layer method, the paper comprehensively considers the stiffness of the existing tunnel, the stiffness of the new tunnel, the excavation method load and the existing tunnel load, coupled with Peck's empirical formula, the theoretical model of deformation prediction for excavation of a two-lane highway tunnel under the tunnel through the existing railroad is proposed, and verified and optimized by numerical calculations and monitoring data, which proves the applicability and reliability of the theoretical model in the similar strata and the project promotion.

During the last decade, Bangladesh has been experienced a significant climatic anomalies which lead to an increase in magnitude and frequency of various climate relate extreme events. Climate scientists substantiate that global temperature and precipitation pattern is expected to change, which may result in consequential impact on agriculture, livelihood, and ecosystem. Bangladesh is therefore likely to face substantial challenges in the coming decades. In order to adequately understand this complex, dynamic phenomena, Analyzing historical Climate change scenarios as well as projecting its future trends is a great concern for researcher. This study aims to analyzes/ historical climatic data from (1901-2020), and predict future temperature and precipitation patterns in Bangladesh using CMIP6 data. Data used in this study (Observed data is from CRU TS 4.05 and future data is from CMIP6) have been acquired from WorldClim v2.1. Various methods including correlation, regression, standard deviation, correlation matrix, percentiles, cell statistics, and IDW interpolation were performed to analyze the trends, variability and spatial patterns of temperature and rainfall. This study revealed that Over the historical study period (1901-2020) Bangladesh has been experienced a significant warming trend with an average increase in temperature 2°C and with annual decline of the total precipitation 607.26 mm along with a shift towards drier conditions despite weak correlation with hotter years. Projected climate models represents that Bangladesh minimum temperature is expected to increase from 1°C to 4.4°C as well as maximum temperatures from 1°C to 4.1°C by 2100. Moreover, projected precipitation is expected to increase by 480.38 mm, with the biggest rises during monsoon months. Regional variations in temperature and precipitation are again expected, with the Southeast (SE) likely experiencing the most significant warming and the Northeast (NE) seeing the most substantial increase in precipitation.

COVID-19 infection is extremely dangerous for persons with comorbidities such as kidney disease and diabetes. Although many people of all ages and socioeconomic backgrounds have suffered due to this pandemic, those with underlying medical conditions like kidney disease and diabetes are more vulnerable to becoming infected with COVID-19 related to weak immunity. However, the role of vaccination in the co-infection of COVID-19 with diabetics is not available in the literature. Therefore, we examine the unique challenges presented by the co-infection of COVID-19 in individuals with diabetes, focusing on its disease transmission dynamics. A mathematical modelling technique is to be employed in this work to analyse the dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks with seven compartments, including vaccination with comorbidities such as diabetes. We also investigated analytically by displaying the solutions' existence, boundedness, positivity and sensitivity. After calculating the basic reproduction numbers, the stability analysis of model equilibrium points is also covered. If the reproduction numbers are less than unity, the disease-free equilibrium points of the model appear to be both locally and globally stable. The findings of this study are that as the vaccination rate rises, the incidence of COVID-19 and its co-infections with diabetes decreases. Effective disease treatment strategies may be based partly on the possible impact of vaccination on the co-infection of COVID-19 related to diabetic disease insights.

Currently, in some domestic and foreign mines, the backfill drilling pipeline experience a rupture phenomenon even when the wear degree is low. This results in a delay in production due to the filling becoming 'sick'. This paper presents, for the first time, the damage mechanism from a mechanical perspective and re-derives the anti-extrusion strength model of the backfill drilling pipeline. We investigate the influence of law on the anti-extrusion strength of pipelines from the perspective of stratum and cement ring. We then verify the theoretical and simulation results through engineering examples. The results demonstrate that the Mises stress criterion is a suitable modification principle for the anti-extrusion strength model of the backfill drilling pipeline. The anti-extrusion strength of the pipeline is related to the elastic modulus and Poisson's ratio of the stratum, and the thickness of the cement ring. It is negatively affected by the depth of the stratum. For hard strata, a cement ring with a smaller elastic modulus is suitable, while for soft stratum, a cement ring with a larger elastic modulus is recommended. When the missing angle of the cement ring is less than 60°, the stress concentration factor increases up to 2.2. The stress unloading capacity of the cement ring ranges from 32.7% to 37.8%, and optimal performance of the cement ring is achieved when it has high strength and low rigidity. The backfill filling pipeline of a copper mine abroad was destroyed due to external extrusion force exceeding its anti-extrusion strength value. The modified pipeline anti-extrusion strength model is 18.2% higher than the casing API strength value. This finding can inform the design of the backfill filling pipeline for China's kilometer-deep wells in the future.

The high penetration of distributed energy resources poses significant challenges to the dispatch and operation of power systems. Improving the accuracy of short-term load forecasting (STLF) can optimize grid management, leading to increased economic and social benefits. Currently, some simple AI and hybrid models has issues to deal with and struggle with multivariate dependencies, long-term dependencies, and non-linear relationships. This paper proposes a novel hybrid model for short-term load forecasting (STLF) that integrates multiple AI models with Lasso regression using the stacking technique. The base learners include ANN, XgBoost, LSTM, Stacked LSTM, and Bi-LSTM, while Lasso regression serves as the meta-learner. By considering factors such as temperature, rainfall, and daily electricity prices, the model aims to more accurately reflect real-world conditions and enhance predictive accuracy. Empirical analyses on real-world datasets from Australia and Spain show significant improvements in forecasting accuracy, with a substantial reduction in Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) compared to existing hybrid models and individual AI models. This research highlights the efficiency of the stacking technique in improving STLF accuracy, suggesting potential operational efficiency benefits for the power industry.

The Range–Doppler (R-D) model is extensively employed for the geometric processing of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. Refining the sensor motion state and imaging parameters is the most common method for achieving high-precision geometric processing using the R-D model, comprising a process that involves numerous parameters and complex computations. In this study, we introduce a novel approach to improve the positioning accuracy of the R-D model, implementing a low-order polynomial to compensate for the original imaging errors without altering the initial positioning parameters. We also design low-order polynomial compensation models with different parameters. The models are evaluated on various SAR images from different platforms and bands, including spaceborne TerraSAR-X and GF3-C images, manned airborne SAR-X images, and unmanned aerial vehicle-mounted miniSAR-Ku images. Furthermore, image positioning experiments involving the use of different polynomial compensation models and various numbers and distributions of Ground Control Points (GCPs) are conducted. The experimental results demonstrate that geometric processing accuracy comparable to that of the classical rigorous positioning method can be achieved even when applying only an affine transformation model to the images. Compared to classical refinement models, however, the proposed image-compensated R-D model is much simpler and easy to implement. Thus, this study provides a convenient, robust, and widely applicable method for the geometric positioning processing of SAR images, offering a potential approach for the joint-positioning processing of multi-source SAR images.

Periodontitis is a chronic inflammatory disease which results in the destruction of the tooth’ s supporting tissues and the alveolar bone resorption. The complement becomes a major link between infection and inflammatory pathology including periodontitis. Gingipians as important virulence factors of P. gingivalis have the activity of C5 convertase, could cleave C5 into fully functional C5a to activate C5aR. The above process could be blocked by the C5aR antagonist (PMX-53) to suppress local periodontal inflammation, and then achieves the purpose of treatment of periodontitis. Nanoparticles incorporated within gelatin are promising carrier system for drug delivery in recent years. This study aimed to investigate whether gelatin nanoparticles loaded with PMX-53 prevents alveolar bone resorption in miniature swines model of periodontitis. Four miniature swines were placed ligatures around the maxillary and mandibular fourth premolar and first molar on both sides for seven weeks to induce periodontitis. Then, animals were assigned randomly to four groups: minocycline-treated group, gelatin with PMX53-treated group, gelatin-treated group and a sham control group. They were treated with 1ml related drugs respectively, into gingival sulcusl for 4 times at one-week intervals. We showed that local treatments with gelatin nanoparticles loaded with PMX-53 could inhibit alveolar bone loss of periodontitis. Our study revealed that gelatin nanoparticles loaded with PMX-53 prevented alveolar bone resorption miniature swines model of periodontitis. In addition, provided proof-of-concept for local targeting of gelatin nanoparticles loaded with PMX-53 as a powerful candidate for the treatment of periodontitis.

Concrete is more stable than filler as a false roof in a downward approach type infill quarry, but the mechanical model of a concrete false roof is not clear. As a result, there has been limited application. Therefore, it is necessary to establish the mechanical model of a concrete artificial false roof to enhance the stability of the downward approach infill quarry. This paper combines theoretical analysis, model derivation, finite element analysis and field application methods. Firstly, the basic assumptions of thin plate theory and elasticity mechanics are used as the premise to establish the differential equations of the deflection curve of the concrete thin plate false roof. Then, the three types of bending moment generation of the concrete thin plate false roof are explored. Secondly, the relationship between the location of dangerous surface and dangerous point in hard-supported weak-slab structure and soft-supported weak-slab structure is analyzed, and the type of uniform load and calculation model of concrete thin-slab false roof are improved. Finally, according to the established mechanical model of thin slab false roof, finite element analysis and field application were carried out. The results show that there are three types of deflection curve differential equations in the concrete thin slab false roof perpendicular to the strike, and three extreme points exist in the middle section of the thin slab and on both sides of the surrounding rock. The hazardous surface of the hard-supported weak-slab structure is present at the intersection of the encircling rock and the thin-slab fake ceiling, with the perilous point situated on the top of this surface. The hazardous surface of the soft-supported weak-slab structure can be found in the centre section of the thin-slab fake ceiling, with the perilous point being located at the bottom of this surface. Moreover, the damage mode for both structures is that of maximum tensile stress damage. Upon conducting a finite element analysis, the results indicate that the concrete's maximum tensile stress is significantly high.

In this paper, a semi-empirical model of air waves induced by falling rock is described. The model is composed of a uniform motion phase (velocity close to 0 m·s^-1) and an acceleration movement phase. The uniform motion phase was determined based on experimentally and the acceleration movement phase was derived by theoretical analysis. A series of experiments were performed to verify the semi-empirical model and elucidated the law of the uniform motion phase. The acceleration movement phase accounted for a larger portion with a greater height of the falling rock. Experimental results of different falling heights of the goaf showed close agreement with theoretical analysis values. The semi-empirical model could accurately and conveniently estimate the velocity of air wave induced by falling rock. Thus, the semi-empirical model can provide a reference and basis for estimating the speed of air waves and designing protective measures in mines.

The paper presents an error model of a measurement chain containing link performing discrete wavelet transform algorithm which is most often the last stage of measurement signal processing. The goal is to determine the uncertainty budget of the input quantities of the wavelet transform algorithm. The error model takes into account parts of analog, analog-to-digital and digital processing, describing the properties of subsequent fragments of the chain using their transmittance and processing functions. The proposed model enables the description of both deterministic and non-deterministic properties of signal errors. The proposed model was validated using an example measurement chain created for this purpose.

This paper addresses the input coupling problem for the shape memory alloy (SMA) actuated parallel platform with completely unknown nonlinear dynamics. The problem means that in a parallel platform with multiple SMA actuators acting together, the displacement of one of the actuators will simultaneously affect the remaining actuators to change. Due to the coupling problem and nonlinear characteristics of the SMA actuators, it is not easy to control the platform to achieve bi-directional swing with completely unknown nonlinear dynamics. Therefore, a model-free adaptive sliding mode control method is proposed to improve the control accuracy of the complex motion of the platform, avoiding the complex modeling process of the SMA actuated parallel platform. Based on the model-free adaptive control (MFAC) theory, a multiple input and multiple output (MIMO) dynamic linearized mathematical model of the parallel platform is established using the online input and output data of the system. Then, a sliding mode controller is designed based on the dynamic model. A rigorous theoretical analysis proves that the proposed model-free adaptive sliding mode controller is able to stably control the SMA actuated parallel platform, and its tracking error is uniformly ultimately bounded (UUB). Finally, experiments are conducted on the established SMA actuated parallel platform. The results show that the proposed model-free controller is feasible and effective, and can control the system well to achieve the complex motion of bi-directional swing.

A model for enabling the production of lower carbon cement paste is proposed in this research. The model is based on predicting the strength of cement pastes with partial replacement of wheat straw ash (WSA) and silica fume (SF), two major wastes of agricultural and industrial production. The model is set up based on response surface methodology and Box-Behnken design, and included a suite of mechanical tests with distinct replacements following a micro an meso characterization. The model shows capability for predicting strength of any cement paste, including partial substitution of WSA and/or SF at any combination level with excellent accuracy, which is verified with three validation mixtures demonstrating maximum errors of less than 6% at the three ages. The analysis of the response surface evidences that any cement replacement in the range of 0-20% WSA and above 5% SF allows the reduction of the carbon footprint by maximizing the incorporation of both wastes. The proposed model can be used by setting the required strength of cement paste and calculating the maximum possible replacement, which should contribute to making the construction industry more sustainable by utilizing local waste.

Sentiment analysis has become an important tool for understanding public opinion across languages and domains. Recently, there has been an increase in the number of studies on sentiment analysis in low-resource languages such as Kazakh. This is important to ensure that modern text analysis technologies are accessible to all users, regardless of their language background. The aim of the study is to create a sentiment analysis model for analyzing texts in Kazakh. As part of this work, we aim to use fine-tuning techniques on our own dataset for already existing models, thus improving their accuracy and efficiency for analyzing Kazakh language texts. This paper presents a manually collected dataset "KazIntTelCom" from the city information service 2GIS, consisting of user reviews, manually annotated by the authors taking into account the polarity of sentiment (i.e. negative positive or neutral). This dataset was used to fine-tune two pre-trained multi-lingual Transformer-based sentiment analysis models taken from the HuggingFace platform. The distillBERT and XLM-RoBERTa models were used for tuning. Also, the models were tested on the dataset "KazSAnDRA". The results show that accurate tuning even on a relatively small dataset gives a significant increase in performance, which is confirmed by an increase in the accuracy index by 20%-30%. In addition, false misses and false detections are analyzed, which allows us to identify directions for further improvement of the models. The contribution of this work, in addition to the dataset, is the analysis of model errors, which will help future developers to make more accurate settings of hyperparameters of training for sentiment analysis in Kazakh. These results are important for natural language processing and their adaptation to low-resource languages, promoting more inclusive and equitable access to modern analytical tools. Thus, this study demonstrates the effectiveness of the Transformers architecture for sentiment analysis in Kazakh and opens new opportunities for further model improvement.

Smart manufacturing encompasses a category of manufacturing that employs computer-integrated capabilities and technologies to enhance supply chain optimization, production efficiency, and recyclability. Yet limited studies have been conducted to optimize these prospects from the perspective of low resource countries where such innovative studies have not been adequately explored. This paper aims to examine the implications of smart manufacturing practices (Smart Procurement, Smart Supply Chain, Smart Production Planning and Control, Automation and Industrial Robot, and Supply Chain Configuration) on pro-environmental behaviour and develop a baseline moderated mediation model to explain the relationship between smart manufacturing and pro-environmental behaviour with a role of green dynamic capability, and environmental orientation. This study is anchored on quantitative research approach, deductive reasoning, and explanatory design. Cross – sectional survey data have been obtained from 382 manufacturing companies in Ghana. Our hypotheses have been tested using Structural Equation Modelling and SMART-PLS version 3.8.9. The study has revealed that smart manufacturing practices significantly and positively relate to pro-environmental behaviour. Moreover, green dynamic capability and environmental orientation moderate the relationship between smart manufacturing and pro-environmental behaviour. The implications of the study include the emergence of a baseline model to guide policymakers, practitioners, and academicians to explain the relationship between smart manufacturing and sustainable manufacturing in the context of developing countries. Again, the social implication of the study includes the realisation of decent job and economic growth, responsible consumption and production as well as actions taken to combat climate change.

We investigate the possible laboratory origins of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b genotype B3.13, currently affecting various animal species and causing sporadic human infections. The first detection of HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b in the Netherlands in 2020 raises concerns about earlier gain-of-function research. The proximal origins of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b may be the USDA Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory (SEPRL) in Athens, Georgia and the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Genetic analysis indicates that genotype B3.13 emerged in 2024 and exhibits genetic links to genotype B1.2, which was identified to have originated in Georgia in January 2022 after the start of serial passage research with H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 in mallard ducks at the USDA Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory (SEPRL) in Athens, Georgia in April 2021. Genotype B1.2 was found in a bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) in March 2022 in Florida, indicating sudden new adaptations to different animal species. The NP gene of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b (genotype B3.13), which is causing outbreaks in cattle, was reported to have likely originated from an avian influenza A virus derived from mallard ducks. Significant mutations found in recent human cases, including PB2 E627K and PB2 M631L, also suggest links to serial passage experiments. However, further investigation is urgently needed to confirm these findings and to identify all H5N1 laboratory leaks that may have occurred with a focus on mallard ducks and other migratory waterfowl, which have the potential to infect a large number of poultry and livestock facilities around the world. A moratorium on gain-of-function research including serial passage of H5N1 is indicated to prevent a man-made influenza pandemic affecting animals and humans.

In this paper, by using the variational method, a sufficient condition for the unique existence of the stationary solution of the reaction-diffusion ecosystem is obtained, which directly leads to the global asymptotic stability of the unique equilibrium point. Moreover, delayed feedback ecosystem with reaction-diffusion item is considered, and utilizing impulse control results in the globally exponential stability criterion of the delayed ecosystem. It is worth mentioning that the Neumann zero-boundary value that the infected and the susceptible people or animals should be controlled in the epidemic prevention area and not allowed to cross the border, which is a good simulation of the actual situation of epidemic prevention. And numerical examples illuminate the effectiveness of impulse control, which has a certain enlightening effect on the actual epidemic prevention work . That is, in the face of the epidemic situation, taking a certain frequency of positive and effective epidemic prevention measures is conducive to the stability and control of the epidemic situation. Particularly, the newly-obtained theorems quantifies this feasible step. Besides, utilizing Laplacian semigroup derives the $p$th moment stability criterion for the impulsive ecosystem.

A comprehensive kinetic model of the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FTS) is developed in a fixed bed reactor under operating conditions (temperature, 230–235°C, pressure, 20–25 bar, gas hourly space velocity, 4000–5000 cm³(STP)/h/g_catalyst ,H₂/CO feed molar ratio, 2.1) over a Co based catalyst. Reaction rate equations based on Eley-Rideal (ER) type model for initiation step and Langmuir-Hinshelwood-Hougen-Watson (LHHW) type model for propagation and termination steps of the FTS reactions have been considered and the readsorption of olefins were taken into account. The model that was reported in the literature was modified in order to explain many significant deviations from the ASF distribution. Optimum parameters have been obtained by Genetic Algorithms (GA). The calculated activation energies to produce n-paraffins and 1-olefins were in the range of 82.24 to 90.68 kJ/mol and 100.66 to 105.24 kJ/mol, respectively. The hydrocarbon distribution in FTS reactions was satisfactorily predicted particularly for paraffins.

The organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) is a significant environmental threat, and an economic and social challenge to manage. As such, the efficient treatment of OFMSW is a significant key factor in achieving sustainable waste management. Decentralized Composting (DC) develops a new framework of waste management. The DC Analysis Model (DCAM), proposed in our previous study, provides a powerful tool for decision makers, based on the quantification of the DC project characteristics. In this paper, we focus on the qualitative analysis as a complementary tool to support decision making, in cases where quantitative analysis is unequivocal. The qualitative analysis identifies the main players in the field, the critical stakeholders and the potential conflicts between them. It also reveals the root problems and the core competencies for the project's implementation. DCAM qualitative analysis in Shefa-Amr (case study) indicates that unresolved root problems, such as the “lack of national regulation”, “clear ownership of the project” and “lack of ongoing budget” can result in an unsustainable composting system. Countering that, “the commitment of the municipality”, together with “economic viability” and securing “suitable areas for placing composters” are among the most important core competencies for the effective implementation of DC projects.

This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER) rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1) formulation of risk assessment hierarchy, (2) representation of both qualitative and quantitative information, (3) elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities, (4) aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5) quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.

This paper addresses a new micromechanical model to predict biaxial tensile moduli of plain weave fabric (PWF) composites by considering the interaction between the orthogonal interlacing strands. The two orthogonal yarns in micromechanical unit cell (UC) were idealized as the curved beams with a path depicted by using sinusoidal shape functions. The biaxial tensile moduli of PWF composites were derived by means of the minimum total complementary potential energy principle founded on micromechanics. The biaxial tensile tests were respectively conducted on the RTM-made EW220/5284 PWF composites at five biaxial loading ratios of 0, 1, 2, 3 and ∞ to validate the new model. The predictions from the new model were compared with experimental data and good correlation was achieved between the predictions and actual experiments, demonstrating the practical and effective use of the proposed model. Using the new model, the biaxial tensile moduli of plain weave fabric (PWF) composites could be predicted based only on the properties of basic woven fabric.

Although, promotion of urbanization culture in recent decades has made inevitable development of cities in the world, however, the development can be guided in a direction that leave, to the extent possible, minimum socioeconomic and environmental impacts. For this, it is required to first forecast auto-spreading orientation of cities and suburbs in rural areas over time and then avoid shapeless growth of cities. This paper is an attempt to develop a dynamic hybrid model based on logistic regression (LR), Markov chain (MC), and cellular automata (CA) for prediction of future urban sprawl in fast-growing cities. The model was developed using 12 widely-used urban development criteria, whose significant coefficient was determined by logistic regression, and validated by relative operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The validated model was run in Guilan, a tourist province in northern Iran with a very high rate of urban development. For this, changes in the area of urban land use were detected over the period of 1989 to 2013 and then, future sprawl of the province was forecasted by the years 2025 and 2037. The analysis results revealed that the area of urban land use was increased by more than 1.7 % from 36012.5 ha in 1989 to 59754.8 ha in 2013, and the area of Caspian Hyrcanian forestland was reduced by 31628 ha. The results also predicted an alarming increase in the rate of urban development in the province by the years 2025 and 2037, during which urban land use is predicted to develop 0.9 % and 1.38 %, respectively. The development pattern is expected to be uneven and scattered, without following any particular direction. The development will occur close to the existing or newly-formed urban basements as well as around major roads and commercial areas. This development, if not controlled, will lead to the loss of 13863 ha of Hyrcanian forests and if the trend continues, 21013 ha of Hyrcanian forests and 20208 ha of Barren/open lands are expected to be destroyed by the year 2037. In general, the proposed model is an efficient tool for the support of urban planning decisions and facilitates the process of sustainable development of cities by providing decision-makers with an overview on future development of cities where the growth rate is very fast.

Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a chronic inflammatory disease, the incidence of which is increasing worldwide. However, the etiology and pathogenesis of UC remains unclear. The n-butanol extract of pulsatilla decoction (BEPD) of the traditional Chinese medicine herbal formula has been shown to be effective in treating UC. We aimed to explore the molecular mechanism underlying the effects of BEPD on UC, in particular its effects on neutrophil extracellular trap (NET) formation by neutrophils. High-performance liquid chromatography was used to determine the principal compounds of BEPD. UC was induced in mice using dextran sodium sulfate, and mice were treated with 20, 40, or 80 mg/kg BEPD daily for seven days. Colonic inflammation was determined by assessing the disease activity index, histopathology, colonic mucosal damage index, colonic mucosal permeability, and pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokine levels. The infiltration and activation status of neutrophils in the colon were determined by analyzing the levels of chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand (CXCL)1 and CXCL2, reactive oxygen species, Ly6G, and numerous NET proteins. Our results showed that BEPD improved the disease activity index, histopathology, and colonic mucosal damage index scores of mice with UC, and restored colonic mucosal permeability compared with untreated mice. The expression levels of the pro-inflammatory cytokines interleukin-1β, interleukin-6, and tumor necrosis factor-α in colon tissues were significantly decreased, while the expression levels of anti-inflammatory cytokines in colon tissues were significantly increased, exceeding those of control mice. In addition, BEPD reduce the expression of the neutrophil chemokines CXCL1 and CXCL2 in the colon tissue of mice with UC, reduced neutrophil infiltration, reduced reactive oxygen species levels, and significantly reduced the expression of NET proteins. BEPD also significantly reduced NET formation. The results of this study suggest that BEPD exerts therapeutic effects in a murine model of UC by inhibiting neutrophil infiltration and activation in the colon, as well as by inhibiting the expression of key proteins involved in NET formation and reducing NET formation, thereby alleviating local tissue damage and disease manifestations.