This paper investigates the impact of price and real exchange rate volatility on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in a panel of 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries, observed between 1990 and 2012. Both price and exchange rate volatility series are estimated through the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH). Our results, obtained employing the Fixed Effects estimator, confirm the theory of hysteresis and option value, in so far it is found a statistically significant negative effect of exchange rate volatility on FDI. Price volatility, instead, turns out to be positive but insignificant. Moreover, we show that human capital and trade openness are key for attracting foreign capital. From the policy perspective, our analysis suggests the importance of stabilization policies as well as the one of government credibility in promoting trade openness and human capital formation.

This research paper aimed to examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on South Africa's exports from 1994 Q1 to 2023 Q2. The study used the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests to test for stationarity. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and smooth threshold regression (STR) are employed to analyse the relationship between exchange rate volatility and exports. The GARCH (1.1) technique is used to construct the exchange rate volatility data. The results of the stationarity tests reveal that variables are either integrated in order I(0) or I(1). This implies that the variables used in this study are stationary, which is crucial for conducting accurate analyses. Moreover, the NARDL test approach provided insights into the long-run effects of exchange rate volatility on South Africa's exports. Based on the NARDL test, positive shocks have a greater but statistically insignificant effect on exports than negative shocks. Therefore, a greater level of exchange rate volatility may lead to increased exports from South Africa. Furthermore, the STR also reveals that the impact of exchange rate volatility is insignificant. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and firms to make informed decisions regarding exchange rate management and export strategies in South Africa.

One of the factors in the mobility of a nation's economy is the stock exchange which plays a decisive role in sustainable economic development. Accordingly, and for the special place of the stock exchange in the economy, we decided to investigate the relationship between the interest and exchange rates and the Tehran stock exchange dividend and price index (TEDPIX). Using the autoregressive distributed lag method, the present study is conducted utilizing the annual data over the period of 1991 to 2020. The results indicate that the exchange rate has a positive long-run relationship with the TEDPIX, but no statistically significant relationship was found between the TEDPIX and the interest rate. Furthermore, the results of the estimation of the error correction model show that 30.786% of the disequilibrium in each period is adjusted to the long-run equilibrium.

The aim of this research work was to provide model for predicting stock volatility in Nigeria Stock market. To achieve this, monthly data for Nigerian stock exchange, Exchange rate, Share index and inflation rate was collected for a period of January 1990 to December 2016.The descriptive statistics revealed these variables to exhibit volatility as a characteristics of financial time –varying series. DCC Model was fitted, were the coefficients for all the parameters and that of the correlation-Targeting (rho_21) are both negative and positive and tend very close to 1 and -1, indicating that high persistence in the conditional variances. The Model DCC, satisfied the properties of a good model of conditional mean and variance of the confidential Interval (C.I) of 1 and -1, that is, the conditional variances are finites and their series are strictly stationary. This therefore implies that the Nigerian Stock Exchange, Exchange rate, share index and Inflation rate will experience a non-steady shock in the Stock market. However Each of these variables have different length of recovery (volatility half- life) ranging from 1.5month, 6.5months, 6months to 2,4months for stock exchange, exchange rate, share index and inflation rate respectively. By implication, the volatility of these variables had a long memory, persistence and mean-reverting.

In this paper, we investigate the “statics and dynamics” return and volatility spillovers transmission across developed and developing countries. Quoted against the U.S. dollar, we study twenty-three global currencies over 2005 – 2016. Focusing on the spillover index methodology, the generalised VAR framework is employed. Our findings indicate no evidence of bi-directional return and volatility spillovers between developed and developing countries. However, a unidirectional volatility spillover from developed to developing countries is highlighted. Furthermore, our findings document significant bi-directional volatility spillovers within the European region (Eurozone and non-Eurozone currencies) with the British Pound (GBP) and the Euro (EUR) as the most significant transmitters of volatility. The findings reiterate the prominence of volatility spillovers to financial regulators.

Inflation and exchange rates have great influence on consumer prices especially on imports and exports. Exchange rate fluctuations create inefficiency and distort world prices whereas changes in inflation rates have a direct impact on consumer goods prices which incidentally include exchange rates. There is a direct interdependence between inflation and exchange rates and this paper is aimed at investigating this relationship in dynamic context. It tries to find out how changes in inflation and exchange rates impact on another by adopting the econometric and copula approaches. Both inflation and exchange rates data are susceptible to volatility clustering, possess fat tails and are skewed coupled with conditional heteroskedasticity. Hence we model the univariate distributions by using ARMA$(p,q)$-GARCH$(x,y)$ so as to capture the most important stylized features of inflation and exchange rates. A bivariate model is then constructed by coupling the marginal distributions of inflation and exchange rates using the survival Clayton copula. Empirical results from monthly inflation and exchange rates data show positive correlation between the two based on Kendall $\tau$ test which confirms that a change in inflation results in change of exchange rates an vice versa hence there is co-movement. Furthermore, by the Granger causality test, exchange rates spikes cause changes in inflation rates. The results of the study have implications on economic policy design and hedging strategies for traders on imports and exports.

In this study the impact of terrorist attacks on exchange rate is estimated. Particularly, the study focuses on Turkish terrorist attacks and its implication on Turkish lira versus pound sterling exchange rate. In order, to find the causal effect the study employed Autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing approach as an estimation technique. Accordingly, the analysis reveals that terrorist attack has a negative impact on the exchange rate in both short and long-run. However, the negative effect of terrorism tends to be small in both the short-run and long-run. More precisely, terrorist attack depreciates the exchange rate between Turkish lira and pound sterling by approximately 0.00072 in the next trading day. The long-term effect also shows that terrorist attack depreciates the exchange rate on average by 0.00212.

Conventional economic theory outlines that developing countries experience economic growth through an undervalued exchange rate and that exchange rate overvaluations has negative long term effects on economic growth. This paper examined the impact of exchange rate movements as well as exchange rate misalignments on economic growth for the Trinidad and Tobago economy over the period 1960 to 2016. We find statistically significant evidence that both exchange rate appreciation and misalignments impact negatively on economic growth in the T&T economy. Drilling deeper we find interestingly that there exist no non-linear effects of exchange rate misalignments on growth. Specifically we find statistically significant evidence that both overvaluations and undervaluations hamper economic growth in the Trinidad and Tobago economy. We attribute this to T&T’s small and underdeveloped manufacturing sector that tends to be overlooked on account of its energy resources, in addition to the fact that its manufacturing sector is highly import oriented. A major policy recommendation would be for the critical reassessment of the rules governing the HSF, as government expenditure was allowed to follow energy revenues due to its current limitations.

The impact of monetary policies and their implementation by exchange rate covered the economic condition of Ghana. The social inclusion and conversion factors change the implemented policies of nations, where the real price, trade, technology, a price rate and price level of ratio take an important part of growth. The reform of the financial sector favors the free floating of the exchange rate and global trade by under the premise of flexible exchange rates. The tragedy of country growth and exchange rate toward a trajectory of growth with the growth-enhancing effect through social inclusion, conversion factors, price level ratio, exchange rate, merchant rate, export and trade services. The research study is based on secondary study and social inclusion equity indicators with public resources, building human resources and social protection for economic development has determined. The monetary policies are classified by the different evidence and trade indicators. The significant influence of growth and internal policies has affected trade and exchange rates with growth and reserve policies. The results have computed by linear regression and it proved that social inclusion and alternative conversion factors impact on the global trade and create short term binary relationship.

This study examines the exchange rate rebound effects of the Central Bank intervention in the selected ECOWAS economies. An empirical understanding of these effects is very important to trade adjustment as well as the macroeconomic stability in these countries. Using the panel data modelling framework, the study finds that the impact of the Central Bank intervention on exchange rate is insignificant and it does not lead to the exchange rate rebound. In addition, money supply as well as monetary policy rate implemented by the monetary authorities significantly influences the level of exchange rate in a positive direction.

This study is the first to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price volatility on stock returns for the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE). We utilized weekly series of VN30-Index, WTI crude oil prices, geopolitical risks (GPR) index and gold prices spanning from 6 February 2012 to 31 December 2023 as data sources. Using a nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) bounds testing approach, we found that in the short-term, oil price volatility has negative asymmetric effects on the market returns. Specifically, in the short-term, a one percent increase in oil price volatility immediately leads to a 2,6868 percent decrease in the market returns while a similar magnitude decrease in oil price volatility is associated with 6.3180 percent increase in the market returns. In addition, the results obtained from the NARDL model indicated that, in the long-term, the negative and positive changes of oil price volatility have significantly negative effects on the market returns. Finally, the findings derived from the error correction model (ECM) show that 98.21 percent of the disequilibria from the previous week are converged and corrected back to the long-term equilibrium in the current week.

The present reality of the Nigerian economy is the fact that inflation has remained unabated in spite of all exchange rate measures that have been adopted by the monetary authority. This calls for investigation into the extent to which exchange rate impact on inflation in Nigeria. The research paper examined the impact of exchange rate depreciation on inflation in Nigeria for the period 1981–2017, using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test Cointegration Procedure. The research shows that inflation rate in Nigeria is highly susceptible to lagged inflation rate, exchange rate, lagged exchange rate, lagged broad money, and lagged gross domestic product at 5% level of significance. A long run relationship was also found to exist between inflation rate, gross domestic product and general government expenditure, indicating that the model has a self-adjusting mechanism for correcting any deviation of the variables from equilibrium. Therefore, this study concludes that exchange rate is an important tool to manage inflation in the country; thus, this paper recommends that policies that have direct influence on inflation as well as exchange rate policies that would checkmate inflation movement in the country, should be used by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Also, monetary growth and import management policies should be put in place to encourage domestic production of export commodities, which are currently short-supplied. In addition, policy makers should not rely on this instrument totally to control inflation, but should use it as a complement to other macro-economic policies.

This paper examines the asymmetrical relationship between exchange rate and consumer prices in 40 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 1990q1 to 2017q4. The exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices is estimated for each country by using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) framework and dynamic panel estimators robust to cross-sectionally correlated errors. Firstly, our findings suggest an asymmetrical ERPT in the SSA region during the short-term, whereas there are mixed results across sub-regions in the long-term. Next, we find incomplete and significant ERPT to consumer prices in the entire SSA region which is higher during the depreciation of the local currency than after appreciations. Third, we find nonlinear ERPT with respect to the size of the exchange rate. The pass-through is higher during large exchange rate changes than after small changes. Finally, we find that the pass-through is greater in the countries with fixed exchange rate regime (CFA franc zone) having low inflationary environment than in the other SSA countries with flexible exchange rate regime and high inflation levels. As a result, policymakers should take into account these asymmetries and non-linearities to improve the credibility of monetary policy, strengthen trade liberalization and establish competitive market structures in the Sub-Saharan region.

Lactoperoxidase (LP), which is a high-value minor whey protein, has recently drawn extensive attention from research scientists and industry due to its multi-function and potential therapeutic applications. In this study, the separation and optimization of two similar-sized proteins, LP and lactoferrin (LF) were investigated using strong cation exchange column chromatography. Optimization was started with central composite design based experiments to characterize the importance of different decision variables. The three variables used in the optimization were flow rate, length of gradient and final salt concentration in the linear elution gradient step. The obtained empiric functional model represented the effect of the significant factors on the yield as the objective function. Afterwards, the calibrated mechanistic model was employed to predict accurate optimal set of variables. The optimal operating points were found and the results were compared with validation experiments. Predictions respecting yield confirmed a very good agreement with experimental results while keeping purity, a product quality characteristic, equal or above to a predefined value.

We analyze whether the central banks of a selected sample of emerging economies respond to exchange rate movements. We use economies that are inflation targters and exporters of a limited number of commodities. The latter renders them vulnerable to terms of trade shocks. The sample comprises Brazil, the Czech Republic, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa. We also investigate the role played by the terms of trade in explaining their business cycles. We estimate, for each economy separately and using Bayesian techniques, a regime switching open new Keynesian model. This model allows the parameters of the policy rule and the structural shocks to switch between periods of low and high regimes. We perform posterior simulation and find that, when compared to a constant parameters model, the regime switching fits the data better. The results indicate that, in some periods, the different economies respond strongly to exchange rate, while in others, some respond weakly. A terms of trade improvement leads to a currency appreciation. However, this is reversed for those economies that respond strongly to exchange rate movements. This leads to a rise in output and inflation even for economies that do not respond strongly but play a major role in international trade. This is the case of Russia. The terms of trade are found to play a major rule in explaining business cycles in emerging economies. Thus, although these economies follow an inflation targeting framework, they may set their respective policy rate in a manner to take into account exchange rate developments. This insulates themselves against adverse terms of trade shocks.

As marine traffic is contributing to pollution and mostly have predictable route with repetitive load profiles, to reduce their impact on environment, hybrid system with proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFC-s) and battery pack, is promising replacement. For this purpose, the numerical model of repowered existing vessel that have two diesel engines with 300 kWe is developed. The goal of this paper is to develop numerical model which analyzes and determine equivalent hybrid ship propulsion system for known traveling route. The developed numerical model consists of an interconnected system with PEMFC stack and battery pack as power sources. Numerical model is developed and optimized to meet minimal required power demand for successful route demand, which has variable loads and daily sails six-time same voyage- in total 54 nautical miles. The results have shown that equivalent hybrid power system consists of 300 kWe PEMFC stack and battery pack with 424 kWh battery and state of charge varying between 20 and 87%. To power this new hybrid power system, hydrogen tank of 7200 l holding 284.7 kg at pressure of 700 bar is needed, compared to previous system that spend 1524 kg of diesel and generate 4886 kg of CO2.

The concept of a Social License to Operate (SLO) has become increasingly important in the sustainability literature in recent years. Having its origins in the business discourse of the mining industry with respect to limiting opposition to mining projects, the notion of a social contract above and beyond legal requirements has since become applied across a number of different industries. Despite the concepts adoption confusion exists over the practices and outcomes of SLO, and particularly the nature of engagement. Given this situation it is surprising that not more attention to the role of marketing, and social marketing in particular, in operationalizing the concept. The paper discusses the potential of social marketing to contribute to SLO. Economic, political and social relations are complex in SLO and exchange is intricate in such relational environments. A community-based social marketing orientation is proposed as a means to improve exchange relations and enhance engagement. Seven models of SLO related social marketing models are discussed with community-based social marketing and adaptive co-marketing models being regarded as the most positive for the achievement of an SLO. Potential barriers to adoption of these approaches are noted.

Ambulatory heart rate (HR) monitors that acquire electrocardiogram (ECG) or/and photoplethysmographm (PPG) signals from the torso, wrists, or ears are notably less accurate in tasks associated with high levels of movement compared to clinical measurements. However, reliable estimation of HR can be obtained through data fusion from different sensors. These methods are especially suitable for multimodal hearable devices, where heart rate can be tracked from different modalities, including electrical ECG, optical PPG, and sounds (heart tones). Combined information from different modalities can compensate for single source limitations. In this paper, we evaluate the possible application of data fusion methods in hearables. We assess data fusion for heart rate estimation from simultaneous in-ear ECG and in-ear PPG, recorded on eight subjects while performing 5-minute sitting and walking tasks. Our findings show that data fusion methods provide a similar level of mean absolute error as the best single-source heart rate estimation but with much lower intra-subject variability, especially during walking activities. We conclude that data fusion methods provide more robust HR estimation than a single cardiovascular signal. These methods can enhance the performance of wearable devices, especially multimodal hearables, in heart rate tracking during physical activity.

This study aims to determine how the effect of interest rates and changes in the dollar exchange rate (USD) on the stock price. The type of research carried out in this research is quantitative research with the object of research, namely Bank Central Asia (BCA). The data used in this study comes from secondary data, namely from books, the internet, documents, and banking sites. This study indicates that the independent variable, namely the interest rate, has a significant negative effect on the joint-stock price index and the other independent variable, namely the dollar exchange rate (USD), has a significant positive effect on the joint-stock price index. The coefficient test results show that interest rates and exchange rates (USD) simultaneously affect stock prices, namely 67.2% while the remaining 32.8% is influenced by other factors.

Using DCC-GARCH and EGARCH model, this paper finds that since 1990, the relationship between crude oil prices and the US dollar index is time-varying, demonstrating a process of “very weak correlation—negative correlation—enhanced negative correlation—weakening negative correlation”, but the existing research does not provide enough reasonable explanation. Therefore, this paper proposed a “key mediating factors” hypothesis which points out that whether there is a common “key mediating factor” is important source of the time-varying relationship between two assets. We argue that market trend and financial market sentiment undertook the role of “key mediating factor” during the period of “2002 to the financial crisis” and “financial crisis to 2013”, while other periods lack the “key mediating factors”.

The spectra and global distributions of the X-ray emissions generated by the solar wind charge-exchange (SWCX) process in the terrestrial magnetosheath are investigated based on a global hybrid model and a global geocoronal hydrogen model. The solar wind O6+ ions which are the primary charge state for oxygen ions in solar wind are considered. The line emissivity of the charge-exchange born O5+ ions are calculated by Spectral Analysis System for Astrophysical and Lab oratory (SASAL). It is found that the emission lines from the O5+ ranges from 105.607 to 118.291 eV with the strong line at 107.047 eV. We then simulated the magnetosheath X-ray emission intensity distributions with a virtual camera at two positions of north pole and dusk at six stages during the passing of a perpendicular interplanetary shock combined with a tangential discontinuity structure through the Earth’s magnetosphere. During this process, the X-ray emission intensity increases with time, and the maximum value is 27.11 keV cm-2 s-1 sr-1 on the dayside, which is 4.5 times that before the solar wind structure reaches the Earth. A clear shock structure can be seen in the magnetosheath and moves earthward. The maximum emission intensity seen at dusk is always higher than that seen at north pole.

Turner syndrome (TS) is caused by a complete or partial absence of an X or Y chromosome, including chromosomal mosaicism, affecting 1 in 2,500 female live births. Sister chromatid exchange (SCE) is used as a sensitive indicator of spontaneous chromosome instability. Cells from mosaic patients constitute useful material for SCE evaluations as they grow under the influence of the same genetic background and endogenous and exogenous factors. We evaluated proliferation dynamics and SCE frequencies of 45,X and 46,XN cells of 17 mosaic TS patients. In two participants, 45,X cells exhibited a proliferative disadvantage in relation to 46,XN cells after 72h of cultivation. The analysis of mean PI showed significant differences between 45,X and 46,XN lineages; however there were no intraindividual differences. On the other hand, mean SCE frequencies showed no differences between the two lineages, but there were intraindividual differences in 5 patients. The absence of mean SCE frequency differences between 45,X and 46,XN lineages may indicate that both were equally unstable, as more than 70% of the 46,XN lineages had an anomalous karyotype. However, 46,XN had a higher mean PI, suggesting that the amount of cells with a karyotype distinct from 45,X may increase with time in mosaic TS women.

As new vaccines reduce P. falciparum (Pf) cases, clinicians can focus on rescuing more children with cerebral malaria (CM). Adjunctive “therapeutically-rational exchange transfusion” (T-REX) refers to using special “Pf-resistant” donor red blood cells (RBCs) that secrete nano-sized RBC extracellular vesicles (EVs). Can some RBC EVs rapidly dislodge Pf-infected RBCs (iRBCs) sequestered in blood vessels and reduce inflammation? Does post-exchange “rebound parasitemia” reflect sequestration-reversal? We reviewed case-reports, EV and liposome studies, expert perspectives, and time-sequence data. In the AQUAMAT study, median coma-recovery time was 20 hours for artesunate. In contrast, a CM patient treated with type-O T-REX quickly began speaking (during the procedure). For other rapid-recovery CM patients, donor RBC variables had not been specified. Despite rapid Pf-killing, drugs need 20 hours to substantially reduce iRBC cytoadhesion while EVs can selectively bind distant inflamed tissues within 15 minutes. RBCs stressed by blood-bank storage and Pf infection secrete EVs. Post-exchange “rebound parasitemia” can occur within 60 minutes and may reflect release of sequestered iRBCs. Sequestration-reversal can be assessed by monitoring Pf parasitemia and total Pf biomass. New data suggest clinicians, working with transfusion- and laboratory-medicine physicians, can, and should, assess T-REX options and publish their findings to help clarify how RBC EVs may serve as therapeutic “decoy ligands.”

: In the realm of data management, data preservation stands as a critical undertaking aimed at preserving and upholding the integrity of data. Regardless of whether it concerns personal or enterprise data, the detrimental effects of malicious alterations implemented by attackers cannot be overlooked. Particularly in conventional industrial control environments, the prevalent practice involves the transmission of data from sensors to databases for storage purposes. However, it is essential to recognize that this process exposes the data to various vulnerabilities. Thus, to ensure the long-term security and reliability of the data, it becomes imperative to implement robust data preservation strategies within these industrial control systems. However, the reliance of these databases on physical hard disks introduces inherent vulnerabilities, including the potential for data loss due to disk damage or targeted malicious attacks. Consequently, it becomes imperative to prioritize the implementation of robust data preservation measures. These measures are crucial in mitigating the risk of disruptions and protecting critical data from compromise. By establishing effective data backup systems, employing advanced security protocols, and implementing proactive monitoring mechanisms, organizations can bolster their data preservation capabilities and safeguard against potential threats to data integrity and availability. As a result, many enterprises opt to store their data with third-party providers to ensure data integrity. However, this approach carries inherent risks. If the third-party service experiences an attack or if the data is tampered with, it becomes challenging to verify the integrity of the data. To address these concerns and ensure data preservation within the context of the Internet of Things (IoT), a growing number of individuals are integrating IoT with Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT). By leveraging DLT, the integrity of data can be ensured, reducing reliance on centralized third-party storage and enhancing security in the IoT ecosystem. In this article, IOTA is the DLT, which employs Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) to store transaction information. Compared to Ethereum or other blockchain technologies, IOTA offers notable advantages in terms of transaction verification speed, making it highly suitable for real-time IoT environments. However, the conventional transmission path from sensors to IOTA nodes entails a complex route, involving multiple hardware devices before reaching the intended destination. This complexity poses challenges in ensuring data integrity during transmission and introduces vulnerabilities such as man-in-the-middle attacks or SQL injection attacks. To address these issues, we propose a method to streamline the transmission path between sensors and IOTA, specifically tailored for industrial fields with numerous IoT devices. Our approach involves preprocessing the data stored on the server using our method before uploading, ensuring data confidentiality, and leveraging IOTA to guarantee data integrity. To achieve the shortest path between IoT and DLT nodes, it becomes necessary to establish IOTA nodes on lower-level devices, such as Raspberry Pi or IoT controllers. By simplifying the transmission path, we can reduce the potential for tampering and enhance overall data security. Implementing our proposed method enables the assurance of data confidentiality and integrity during both transmission and storage on the server, strengthening the trustworthiness of the IoT, and IOTA integration.

Bio-molecular reagents like antibodies required in experimental biology are expensive and their effectiveness, among other things, is critical to the success of the experiment. Although such resources are sometimes donated by one investigator to another through personal communication between the two, there is no previous study to our knowledge on the extent of such donations, nor a central platform that directs resource seekers to donors. In this paper, we describe, to our knowledge, a first attempt at building a web-portal titled Bio-Resource Exchange that attempts to bridge this gap between resource seekers and donors in the domain of experimental biology. Users on this portal can request for or donate antibodies, cell-lines and DNA Constructs. This resource could also serve as a crowd-sourced database of resources for experimental biology. Further, in order to index donations outside of our portal, we mined scientific articles to find instances of donations of antibodies and attempted to extract information about these donations at the finest granularity. Specifically, we extracted the name of the donor, his/her affiliation and the name of the antibody for every donation by parsing the acknowledgements sections of articles. To extract annotations at this level, we propose two approaches – a rule based algorithm and a bootstrapped relation learning algorithm. The algorithms extracted donor names, affiliations and antibody names with average accuracies of 57% and 62% respectively. We also created a dataset of 50 expert-annotated acknowledgements sections that will serve as a gold standard dataset to evaluate extraction algorithms in the future. Contact: [email protected], [email protected] Database URL: http://tonks.dbmi.pitt.edu/brx Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Database online.

This paper investigates whether currency risk is priced differently in the different sectors (industrial, financial, and basic materials) of equity markets in a sample of developed United States of America (USA) and developing economies (Brazil, India, Poland, and South Africa). The paper makes use of the following techniques: (i) Univariate Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average and Exponential General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARFIMA-EGARCH), (ii) the Markov-Switching method (MS), and (iii) the Canonical Vine Copulas (C-Vine) techniques. Using a sample of daily data made of the foreign exchange rate against the domestic currency and equity market sectors; our findings show that there is an asymmetry effect between equities markets and the foreign exchange rate: there is a heterogeneous, strong, and positive dependence between the two. Higher equities prices are associated with depreciation of local currencies, according to US dollar (USD) exchange rates. In addition, we find that the selected emerging economies are pricing a positive and considerable currency risk. The pricing of currency risk has a varied effect in both regimes representing the states of the economy. In fact, when currency risk pricing has a beneficial impact on certain sectors of the economy, investors predict better returns.

Evaluation of market connectedness and asymmetric volatility spillover has recently seen a surge in financial risk analytics and portfolio diversification. We carried out a meta-literature review on connectedness and spillovers, providing solid insight into the research field and robust guidelines for future investigation. The review consists of a quantitative bibliometric analysis of 594 papers and a qualitative content analysis of 77 papers covering 1991 to 2021. The results of the meta-citation analysis shows that Diebold's Spillover index (2007) is the predominant method in most works as far as market connectedness and spillover is concerned. With an extensive review, we answered the following objectives (1) Analyze the most influential authors, journals, and publications, (2) Understand the research streams and most studied streams, (3) Understand the theme structure and thematic evolution, and keyword trends, (4) Examine the pattern of collaboration, and most productive affiliations, (5) Explore future research directions and untapped areas. The content analysis revealed the following important research streams in the current literature (1) Asymmetries in the market connectedness, (2) Influence of Macro Factors in the market connectedness and spillover, (3) the Role of Oil in market spillovers and hedging portfolios, (4) Dynamic cross-market connectedness and spillovers. The ongoing financial turmoil and market advancements make market connectedness a vital research topic; thus, our work would significantly contribute to macroeconomic policymakers, researchers and hedging investors.

This article utilizes the Canny edge extraction algorithm based on contour curvature and the cross-correlation template matching algorithm to extensively study the impact of high-repetition-rate CO2 pulsed Laser on the target extraction and tracking performance of the infrared imaging detector. It establishes a quantified dazzling pattern for lasers on infrared imaging systems. By conducting laser dazzling and damage experiments, a detailed analysis of the normalized correlation between target and dazzling images is performed to quantitatively describe laser dazzling effects. Simultaneously, an evaluation system, including target distance and laser power evaluation factors, is established to determine the dazzling level and whether the target is recognizable. The research results reveal that laser power and target position are crucial factors affecting the detection performance of infrared imaging-guided weapon systems under laser dazzling. Different laser powers are required to successfully interfere with the recognition algorithm of infrared imaging-guided weapons at different distances. And laser dazzling will produce a lot of false edge information, which seriously affects the performance of pattern recognition algorithm. In laser damage experiments, the detector experienced functional damage, with a quarter of the image displaying as completely black. The energy density threshold required for functional damage to the detector is approximately 3 J/cm2. The dazzling assessment conclusions also apply to evaluating damage results. Finally, the proposed evaluation formula aligns with experimental results, objectively reflecting the actual impact of laser dazzling on the target extraction and tracking performance of infrared imaging systems. This study provides an in-depth and accurate analysis for understanding the influence of lasers on the performance of infrared imaging-guided weapons.

The Food and Drug Administration’s 2011 Process Validation Guidance and International Council for Harmonization Quality Guidelines recommend continued process verification (CPV) as a mandatory requirement for pharmaceutical, biopharmaceutical, and other regulated industries. As a part of product life cycle management, after process characterization in stage 1 and process qualification and validation in stage-2, CPV is performed as stage-3 validation during commercial manufacturing. CPV ensures that the process continues to remain within a validated state. CPV requires the collection and analysis of data related to critical quality attributes, critical material attributes, and critical process parameters on a minimum basis. Data is then used to elucidate process control regarding the capability to meet predefined specifications and stability via statistical process control tools. In statistical process control, control charts and Nelson rules are commonly used throughout the industry to monitor and trend data to ensure that a process remains in control. In the control chart, the mean value is taken as the center line, and 3σ limits are placed on either side of the center line. In CPV, manufactured lots are summarized, trended, and discussed at a cross-functional level at pre-defined intervals (either weekly, bi-weekly, or even monthly) based on the batch run rate. A cross-functional team assesses details regarding 1) violation frequency, 2) statistical strength of the signal, 3) violation magnitude and its impact on process or quality, and 4) any potential root causes for out-of-expectation or out-of-trend signals. The cross-functional team must analyze whether any signal identified by the control chart is reliable and must determine whether corrective action should be taken and justify the decision in the CPV meeting minutes based on statistical strength and reliability of the signal. However, basic control charts are susceptible to false alarms and nuisance alarms. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the assumptions behind control charts and the inherent false alarm rates for different Nelson rules. In this article, the authors have detailed the assumptions behind the usage of control charts, the rate of false alarms for different Nelson rules, the impact of skewness and kurtosis of a data distribution on the false alarm rate, and methods for optimizing control chart design by reducing false alarm rates and nuisance signals.

This study employs traditional OLS (ordinary least squares) regression analysis to investigate the influence of various external factors on Bitcoin price fluctuations from January 2014 to March 2023 using a multidimensional approach. We use factors from the traditional financial market, such as economic policy uncertainty (EPU), oil prices, the NASDAQ index, and gold prices, to identify factors contributing to Bitcoin volatility. Considering the unique situation in the Bitcoin market, that is, 24-hour trading and the short duration of its existence, we incorporate the broadest possible data range to achieve alignment between Bitcoin data and other datasets. The findings of the statistical analysis indicate that EPU and the NASDAQ index promote positive fluctuations in Bitcoin volatility, whereas gold prices act as a dampener. However, we find no empirical support for the influence of energy prices on Bitcoin volatility. These results suggest that Bitcoin should not be underestimated; all stakeholders should treat the issue of Bitcoin volatility seriously, including governments, who should actively regulate the Bitcoin market, and investors, who should recognize the dangers of this volatility, making rational decisions based on individual circumstances and employing flexible trading strategies.

Low volatility ETFs have become popular in recent year because investors are starting to understand the advantages involved in investing in those ETFs compared to traditional index investment. In this research I have examined the performance of six popular low volatility ETFs, four of them invest in U.S stocks and the other two invest in other developed and emerging markets. Results have pointed out that not only five of the low volatility ETFs have exposed their investors to lower risk, four of them have also produced higher returns. The advantage of investing in low volatility ETFs is prominent in the U.S stock market. All three sizes of stocks categories (Large, Mid and Small Capitalization) low volatility ETFs have outperformed their indexes bench marks in terms of risk and returns. For the non U.S stock investing, while no advantage have been found for investing in low volatility ETFs for developed countries, significant lower risk was found for emerging markets.

This study investigates the impact of financial integration on international dynamics from the perspective of volatility shocks. To achieve this, I employ an IRBC model with time-varying volatilities, recursive preferences, and a global bank. The model demonstrates that volatility shocks trigger precautionary saving incentives, but the specific effects vary based on the type of shock. In the presence of productivity volatilities, countries with a higher level of financial integration exhibit greater divergence in their business cycles, while financial integration tends to result in more synchronized business cycles in the face of financial volatilities. Disregarding volatility shocks would underestimate the impact of financial integration on the comovement of business cycles across countries. Furthermore, welfare analysis also indicates that financial markets play a crucial role in enhancing social welfare, regardless of the type of volatility.

. This paper features an analysis of the relative effectiveness of a variety of methods of modelling Realised Volatility (RV), namely: the use of Gegenbaur processes in Auto-Regressive Moving Average format, GARMA, as opposed to Heterogenous Auto-Regressive HAR models and simple rules of thumb. The analysis is applied to two data sets that feature the RV of the S&P500 index, as sampled at 5 minute intervals, provided by the Oxford Man RV database. The GARMA model does perform slightly better than the HAR model, but both models are matched by a simple rule of thumb regression model based on the application of lags of squared, cubed and quartic, demeaned daily returns.

In this work, satellite data from the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments is analyzed to determine how the global absorbed sunlight and global entropy generation rate have changed during the time period from 2002 to 2023. The data is used to test hypotheses derived from the Maximum Power Principle (MPP) and Maximum Entropy Production Principle (MEP) about the evolution of earth’s surface and atmosphere. The results indicate that the amount of absorbed sunlight has increased over the last 20 years but rising surface temperatures have caused the entropy generation rate to remain approximately constant despite that decrease in albedo. The results are simpler to explain using the MPP but do not completely rule out the MEP. Given the acceptance of the MPP or MEP, some extensions and nuances are discussed.

Two polyurethanes (PUs) were similarly synthesized by reacting a cycloaliphatic isocyanate with 1,4 butanediol and two polyols of different nature (polyester, polycarbonate diol) with molecular weights of 1000 Da. The PU made with polycarbonate diol polyol (YCD) was the only showing intrinsic self-healing at 20 °C. For assessing the mechanism of intrinsic self-healing of YCD, a structural characterization by molecular weights determination, infrared and X-ray photoelectronic spectroscopies, differential scanning calorimetry, X-ray diffraction, thermal gravimetric analysis and dynamic mechanical thermal analysis was carried out. It was concluded that the self-healing at 20 °C of YCD was due to non-covalent dynamic exchange interactions among the carbonate groups of the soft segments. Therefore, the chemical nature of the polyol played a key role in developing PUs with intrinsic self-healing at 20 °C.

Modern exchange theories model a large market, but do not explain single exchange. The paper considers the phenomenon of single exchange and formulates the general exchange problem in the form of a system of two equations, subjective and objective. Subjective equilibrium is given by the Walras-Jevons marginal utility equation. Objective equilibrium equations by Walras and Jevons are averaged over all transactions in the market and can only give a rough general picture without explaining the specific price of an individual exchange. An exchange micro-condition must be found that, when averaged, will give the Walras market equilibrium macro-condition. The study of the internal structure of exchange leads to the need to consider power. The concept of generalized power is introduced. It is generalized power that serves as the primary comparable and measurable objective basis of exchange. The power theory of exchange provides the objective price-equation. It is demonstrated that money is a measure of generalized power in exchange and a certification of generalized power in subsequent exchanges. The proposed theory is able to uniformly explain any exchange, including a single one, which is impossible with the existing theories of exchange.

Few studies have examined the dietary protein intake and sources in combination with the longitudinal changes in brain structure markers. Our study aimed to examine the association between dietary protein intake and different sources of dietary protein with the longitudinal rate of change in brain structural markers. A total of 2723 and 2679 participants from the UK Biobank were included in the analysis. The relative and absolute amounts of dietary protein intake were calculated through a 24-hour dietary recall questionnaire. The longitudinal change rates of brain structural biomarkers were computed using two waves of brain imaging data. We utilized multiple linear regression to examine the association between dietary protein and different sources and the longitudinal changes in brain structural biomarkers. Restrictive cubic splines were used to explore nonlinear relationships, and stratified and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Increasing the proportion of animal protein in dietary protein intake is associated with a slower reduction in the total hippocampus volume (THV, β: -0.02524, P<0.05), left hippocampus volume (LHV, β: -0.02435, P<0.01) and right hippocampus volume (RHV, β: -0.02544, P<0.05).Higher intake of animal protein relative to plant protein is linked to a lower atrophy rate in THV (β: -0.01249, P<0.05) and LHV (β: -0.01173, P<0.05) and RHV (β: -0.01193, P<0.05). Individuals with higher intake of seafood exhibit lower longitudinal rate of change in HV compared to those with no consume (THV, β: -0.004514; P<0.05; RHV, β: -0.005527, P<0.05). In subgroup and sensitivity analyses, there was not a significantly alteration. A moderate increase in the intake and proportion of animal protein in the diet, especially from seafood, is associated with a lower longitudinal change rate in hippocampus volume.

This paper investigates five different GARCH models (GARCH, EGARCH, IGARCH, Component GARCH (CGARCH) and GJR-GARCH) along with six distributions (Normal, Student’s t, GED and their skewed forms), which are used to forecast the volatility for the Bulgarian Stock index SOFIX. We use a GARCH model to predict how much time it will take, after the latest crisis, for the SOFIX index to reach its historical peak once again. The empirical data covers the period between the years 2000 and 2024, including the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose is to answer which of the five models is the best at forecasting the volatility of SOFIX and which distribution is most appropriate. The results, based on BIC and AIC information criteria, show that the ARMA(1,1)-CGARCH(1,1) specification with the Student t-distribution is preferred for forecasting. With the help of 5000 simulations, it is estimated that the chances of Index SOFIX reaching its historical peak value of 1976.73 (08.10.2007) are higher than 90% at 13.08.2087.

In this study, we employ the GARCH-MIDAS (Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity variant of Mixed Data Sampling) model to explore the predictability of commodity return volatility in relation to US climate policy uncertainty (CPU). Our analysis utilizes the 20-day annualized realized commodity volatility returns of nine global commodities (Aluminium, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Cotton, Rice, Soybean, Sugar, and Wheat) to construct the GARCH-MIDAS model, with Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) serving as the predictive variable. The outcomes of our investigation reveal a consistently positive and statistically significant relationship between CPU and the selected commodities. This implies that CPU effectively serves as a robust predictor of volatility in commodity returns. The implications drawn from our results suggest that climate change policies play a pivotal role in influencing economic activities within the commodity market. This underscores the substantial impact of climate change considerations on investment decisions and further emphasizes the integral role of climate change in shaping economic choices.

Feedback trading theory is one of the most primitive theories about financial market. But for a long time，researches and modelings on this topic are rarely seen. The model in this paper shows the effects of sentiment shocks on asset prices in a market characterized by feedback trading in the long run. We find that，generally，feedback trading will lead to cognitive bias effect and trading inducement effect. Cognitive bias effect increases with the feedback trading parameter ( FTP) . In our model，the abnormal volatility of asset prices is captured by cognitive bias effect，sentiment shock effect and trading inducement effect．

The limitedness of the nonrenewable local energy resources in Israel, even in background of the later gas fields’ findings, continues to force the state to devote various efforts for the ‘green’ energy development. These efforts include installations both in the solar and in the wind energy, with a purpose to improve the diversity of energy sources. While the standard discounted cash flow (DCF) method using the net present value (NPV) criterion is extensively adopted to evaluate investments, the standard DCF method is inappropriate for the rapidly changing investment climate and for the managerial flexibility in investment decisions. In recent years, the real options analysis (ROA) technique is widely applied in many studies for valuation of renewable energy investment projects. Hence, we apply in this study the real options analysis approach for the valuation of wind energy turbines and apply it to the analysis of wind energy economic potential in Israel.

This paper studies the contemporaneous relationship between S&P 500 index returns and log-increments of the market volatility index (VIX) via a nonparametric copula method. Specifically, we propose a conditional dependence index to investigate how the dependence between the two series varies across different segments of the market return distribution. We find that: (a) the two series exhibit strong, negative, extreme tail dependence; (b) the negative dependence is stronger in extreme bearish markets than in extreme bullish markets; (c) the dependence gradually weakens as the market return moves toward the center of its distribution, or in quiet markets. The unique dependence structure supports the VIX as a barometer of markets' mood in general. Moreover, applying the proposed method to the S&P 500 returns and the implied variance (VIX²), we find that the nonparametric leverage effect is much stronger than the nonparametric volatility feedback effect, although, in general, both effects are weaker than the dependence relation between the market returns and the log-increments of the VIX.

The literature offers limited information on the effect of obesity on the rate of force development, a critical parameter for mobility in older adults. The objectives of this study were; to explore the influence of obesity on RFD in older adults and to examine the association between this neuromuscular parameter and walking speed. 42 older adults were classified into two groups: the control group (CG, n=22; age=81.13±4.02 years; Body mass index (BMI)=25.13±3.35 kg/m²), and the obese group (OG, n=20; age=77.71±2.95 years; BMI=34.46±3.25 kg/m²). Walking speed (m/s) was measured using the 10-meter walking test. Neuromuscular parameters of the plantar flexors were evaluated during a maximal voluntary contraction test using a dynamometer. The RFD was calculated from the linear slop of the force – time curve in two phases: from the onset of the contraction to 50 ms (RFD50-100) and from 100 to 200 ms (RFD100-200). The gait speed was lower in the OG compared to the CG (p

The integration of commodities into stock exchanges marked a pivotal moment in the analysis of price dynamics. Commodities, essential for both daily sustenance and industrial processes, encompass hard commodities like metals and energy, alongside soft commodities such as agricultural produce. This paper investigates the implications of commodity price volatility on commercial and financial landscapes, recognizing its profound impact on global economies. This study employs a meticulous methodology, delineated into four stages: identification, control, and final selection of academic articles, culminating in their tabulation. Methodologically, a literature review serves as the primary tool for data acquisition, with a focus on existing scientific knowledge to bridge gaps and propose avenues for further inquiry. Drawing from reliable sources, including Google Scholar and Science Direct, the research navigates through a wealth of scholarly discourse on commodity market dynamics. By analyzing trends in academic publications, particularly focusing on the interplay between volatility spillover and gold, this paper provides insights into the evolution of research paradigms over time. Ultimately, this paper not only synthesizes existing knowledge but also identifies lacunae for future investigation, thereby contributing to a deeper understanding of the complexities surrounding commodity markets and their ramifications on global economies.

The paper is an investigation on the impact of financial markets on the volatility of green bonds credit risk component, measured by the option-adjusted spread/swap curve (OAS) of the Global Bloomberg Barclays MSCI Green Bond Index, for both the non and pandemic periods. For these purpose, after observing the dynamic joint correlations between all the variables through a DCC-GARCH, we adopt GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models, putting the OAS as dependent variable. Our main results show that the conditional variance parameters are significant and persistent in both times, testifying the overall impact of the other markets on the OAS. In more detail, we highlight that the gamma in the two EGARCH models is positive: so the “green” credit risk volatility is more sensitive to positive shocks than negative ones. With reference to the conditional mean, we note that if during the non pandemic time only the stock market is significant, during the pandemic also conventional bonds and gold are impacting. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study that analyzes the specific credit risk component of green bond yields: we deem our findings useful to observe the change of green bonds creditworthiness in a complex market context.

: To improve the efficiency of rhizobial inoculation operations and address the current situation of rhizobial inoculation being labor-intensive, a spraying and control system for variable rate application (VRA) of liquid rhizobia was developed. The system can accurately regulate the spraying rate of liquid rhizobia according to the desired rate of rhizobia by incremental Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) closed-loop control algorithm, making it particularly suitable for precise spraying with small amounts. In the laboratory experiment of precise flow control, variation coefficient of spraying nozzle from 0.10 MP to 0.20 MP pressure were no more than 1.2%. A clear linear relationship was observed between the spraying rate and pressure. The maximum response time was 1.93 seconds, while the average response time was 1.62 seconds when controlling the spraying system for small amounts. Field trial was conducted in Heilongjiang Agricultural Xianghe Farm of China. Average seeds number and 100-seed weight of soybean plant with rhizobia inoculation treatment were better than control group, and average yield of spraying liquid rhizobia agent with full base fertilizer increased by 232.5 kg/hm2, representing a significant 7.4% improvement over the control group. The results of these trails clearly showed the positive effect of the spraying and control system for liquid rhizobial inoculation, which has superior to existing inoculation manners, and provides an important technical support for the widespread adoption of rhizobia technology.

Abstract: Building Information Modelling (BIM) methodology has been empowering the quality of the construction activity in all sectors: multidisciplinary designs development; construction planning and monitoring; building management and maintenance. A BIM environment aggre-gates several disciplines and different professional skillsets and in order to control and improve the quality of a BIM project, a BIM manager is required. The BIM manager has the responsibility to coordinate all tasks involved in a building design and associated activities usually workout over the project documents. This professional can access to the distinct discipline models, located in a shared platform, and request for amendments if inconsistencies are detected. The topic of the present study is illustrated with three building cases were distinct specific projects, disciplines and tasks were elaborated: collaboration between disciplines (architecture, structures and con-struction); structural analyses and reinforcement details; quantity take-off of materials and cost estimation; construction scheduling and simulation. Although there are still limitations in the implementation of BIM methodology in all sectors and stages, within the construction industry, BIM has been bringing an important improvement in the quality of a building design, reflected in the quality of the final product. The present study put in evidence the BIM manager role in pro-jects that aggregates several disciplines and experts, bringing an important contribution in the quality of a building design. BIM methodology is a current demand in the construction industry supported on advanced technology and in an adequate management of projects.

The Foreign Exchange rate is very much crucial for determining the economic health level of the country. The foreign exchange rate provides financial stability, enhances purchasing power and allows global trades. This rate usually fluctuates due to the market forces which control the supply and demand of the currency. Nominal and relative inflation and income level have a substantial effect on determining the exchange rates. Government measures, international situations, natural disasters or any unexpected situation like Covid-19, Rohingya crisis etc. can affect the exchange rates. Besides this, the interaction between the factors can create different reasoning to affect the market. This study tries to identify some factors with relevant examples.

We introduce a novel key exchange protocol based on non-commutative matrix multiplication defined in $\mathbb{F}_p^{n \times n}$. The security of our method does not rely on computational problems as integer factorization or discrete logarithm whose difficulty is conjectured. We show that the public, secret and channel keys become indistinguishable to the eavesdropper under matrix multiplication. Remarkably, for achieving a 512-bit security level, the public key is 1024 bits and the private key is 768 bits, making them the smallest keys among post-quantum key exchange algorithms. Also, we discuss how to achieve key authentication, interdomain certification and Perfect Forward Secrecy (PFS). Therefore, Lizama's algorithm becomes a promising candidate to establish shared keys and secret communication between (IoT) devices in the quantum era.

We introduce a novel key exchange protocol based on non-commutative matrix multiplication defined in $\mathbb{Z}_p^{n \times n}$. The security of our method does not rely on computational problems as integer factorization or discrete logarithm whose difficulty is conjectured. We claim that the unique eavesdropper's opportunity to get the secret/private key is by means of an exhaustive search which is equivalent to the unsorted database search problem. Furthermore, we show that the secret/private keys become indistinguishable to the eavesdropper. Remarkably, to achieve a 512-bit security level, the keys (public/private) are of the same size when matrix multiplication is done over a reduced 8-bit size modulo. Also, we discuss how to achieve key certification and Perfect Forward Secrecy (PFS). Therefore, Lizama's algorithm becomes a promising candidate to establish shared keys and secret communication between (IoT) devices in the quantum era.

Empirical evidence is lacking on the nexus between coffee commodity output, climate change and commodity price volatility of Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria and other developing countries. To fill this gap, this study analyzed the reaction of coffee output to climate change and commodity price volatility. We used secondary data from 1961 to 2015 from reliable sources for Nigeria. The study adopted GARCH, ARCH and FMOLS in analysis of coffee output reaction to climate change and commodity price volatility. The findings show that coffee output in Nigeria is influenced by climate change and the international commodity price of coffee. The study demonstrates the potential benefits of improving coffee output and export through climate mitigation and adaptation measures and revival of Agricultural Commodity Marketing in Nigeria and other developing countries.

In econometrics and finance, volatility modelling has long been a specialised field for addressing a variety of issues pertaining to the risk and uncertainties of an asset. This study presents a robust framework, through a step-by-step design, that is relevant for effective Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) with empirical verifications to estimate volatility using the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model. The framework describes an organised approach to the MCS experiment that includes "background (optional), defining the aim, research questions, method of implementation, and summarised conclusion". The method of implementation is a workflow that consists of writing the code, setting the seed, setting the true parameter a priori, data generation process, and performance assessment through meta-statistics. Among the findings, it is experimentally demonstrated in the study that the GAS model with a lower unconditional shape parameter value can generate a dataset that adequately reflects the behaviour of financial time series data, relevant for volatility estimation. This dynamic framework is intended to help interested users on MCS experiments utilising the GAS model for reliable volatility calculations in finance and other areas.

This study rolls out a robust framework relevant for simulation studies through the Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model using the rugarch package. The package is thoroughly investigated, and novel findings are identified for improved and effective simulations. The focus of the study is to provide necessary simulation steps for volatility estimation that involve "background (optional), defining the aim, research questions, method of implementation, and summarised conclusion". The method of implementation is a workflow that includes writing the code, setting the seed, setting the true parameters a priori, data generation process and performance assessment through meta-statistics. This novel, easy-to-understand steps are demonstrated on financial returns using illustrative Monte Carlo simulation with empirical verification. Among the findings, the study shows that regardless of the arrangement of the seed values, the efficiency and consistency of an estimator generally remain the same as the sample size increases. The study also derived a new and flexible true-parameter-recovery measure which can be used by researchers to determine the level of recovery of the true parameter by the MCS estimator. It is anticipated that the outcomes of this study will be broadly applicable in finance, with intuitive appeal in other areas, for volatility estimation.

An abundance of natural resources is both an opportunity and a challenge for developing countries. Several resource-rich, low-income countries receive amounts of foreign aid that are similar to or larger than their actual or potential revenues from natural resources. In such countries, the donors may have an opportunity to help a government to use its resource revenues productively and minimize the magnitude of risks created by resource rents. Development of aid instruments tailored for such purposes might be helped by model-based analysis of the effects of foreign aid on resource-rich, low-income economies and its interactions with the flows of natural resource revenues. This paper develops a growth model à la Barro in which the government receives windfalls (from natural resources and foreign aid) and rent-seeking agents contest for public funds. The key conclusion is that making aid countercyclical helps to achieve higher economic growth, and so does conditioning disbursements on enhancement of public capital. Introducing elements of insurance in the design of both aid products financing investments in infrastructure and social services and supporting policy and institutional reforms may help to achieve both of these objectives.

This paper investigates calendar anomalies, volatility patterns, and the best forecasting model for predicting volatility in the cryptocurrency market, focusing on ten prominent cryptocurrencies: Binance USD, Bitcoin, Binance Coin, Cardano, Dogecoin, Ethereum, Solana, Tether, USD Coin, and Ripple. Spanning from January 2016 to December 2023, the study utilizes sophisticated statistical models such as GARCH (p,q), EGARCH (p,q), and GJR-GARCH (p,q) to analyze precise changes in market dynamics and the impact of day-of-week fluctuations on cryptocurrency returns. Empirical evidence reveals significant findings regarding the persistence of volatility, positive and negative news effects on volatility, and day-of-week effects on cryptocurrency returns. Post-COVID-19, Sunday emerges as the least volatile day for cryptocurrencies, while Thursdays and Tuesdays exhibit greater volatility. Binance, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and Tether show anomalies where returns on Tuesday and Thursday significantly differed from those on other days of the week. Many other currencies, like the USD coin, Cardano, and Ripple, show anomalies only in the pre-COVID-19 period. The findings highlight the best forecast model for volatility for each top cryptocurrency, offering practical implications for investors, traders, regulators, and policymakers. These insights emphasize the importance of understanding and addressing calendar anomalies in the cryptocurrency market for informed decision-making, trading strategies, regulatory frameworks, and market stability.

The relationship between economic growth, growth volatility and financial sector development continues to attract attention in the theoretical and empirical literature. Over time, some studies hypothesize that finance has a causal linear relationship with growth. Recently several other authors contradict this claim and argue that the relationship that exists between finance and growth is nonlinear. We investigate these claims for Nigeria for the period between 1970 and 2015, using semi-parametric econometric methods, Hansen sample splitting techniques and threshold estimator. We observed no evidence of ‘Too much finance’ as claimed by many researchers in recent times. We show that the relationship between financial development and economic growth is U-shaped. This is equally true for the relationship between financial development and growth volatility. We also discuss policy implications of our findings and recommend financial innovations and decentralization of stock exchanges to boost access to financial services, in addition, improved regulation to enhance financial market efficiency.

Our paper deals with an advanced statistical tool for the volatility prediction problem in financial (crypto) markets. Firstly, we consider the conventional GARCH involved volatility models. We next extend the corresponding GARCH based forecasting and calculate a specific probability associated with the predicted volatility levels. Since the probability evaluation is based on a stochastic model, we next develop an additional data-driven estimation of this probability. The proposed advanced statistical estimation uses real (historical) market data. The obtained theoretic results for the statistical probability of levels are also discussed in the framework of the integrated volatility concept. A possible application of the established probability estimation to the volatility clustering problem is also mentioned. Our paper includes a concrete practical implementation of the resulting (combined) volatility prediction tool and considers a novel module for trading and volatility estimation in crypto markets recently developed by 1ex Trading Board group in collaboration with the GoldenGate Venture. Moreover, we discuss shortly a possible using of the proposed model based and data-driven volatility prediction methodology in the financial risk management.

This paper models and estimates the volatility of nonfinancial, innovative and hi-tech focused stock index, the Nasdaq-100, using univariate symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models. We employ GARCH, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH using daily data over the period January 4, 2000 through March 19, 2019. We find that the volatility shocks on the index returns are quite persistent. Furthermore, our findings show that the index has leverage effect, and the impact of shocks is asymmetric, whereby the impacts of negative shocks on volatility are higher than those of positive shocks of the same magnitude.

Over the last two decades, a considerable amount of equipment has been acquired (spreaders, seeders, sprayers, among others) to respond to the challenges of Precision Agriculture (PA) concept. Most of this equipment has been purchased at a high cost. However, many of them, despite still being functional and equipped with sensors, actuators, and electronic processing units capable of adjusting to variations in speed, have become obsolete in terms of communication, and incompatible with new monitoring and control systems based on the “Isobus” protocol. This work aims to present a solution for updating the control system (“Ferticontrol”) of a “Vicon RS-EDW” spreader with variable rate application (VRA), making it compatible with the “InCommand” system from “Ag Leader”. The solution includes low-cost “Arduino” and “Raspberry Pi” microcontrollers and open-source software. The development shows that it is possible to implement a solution that is accessible to farmers in general. It also provides a niche business opportunity for young researchers to set up small technology-based enterprises associated with universities and research centers. These partnerships guarantee permanent innovation and represent a decisive step towards modern, technological, competitive, and sustainable agriculture.

In this work, optimal consumption and investment strategies are derived for risk-averse investors under the 4/2 stochastic volatility class of models. We work under an expected utility (EUT) framework and consider a Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) investor, who might also be ambiguity-averse. The corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) and HJB-Isaacs (HJBI) equations are solved in closed-form for a subset of the parametric space and under some restrictions on the portfolio setting, for complete markets. Conditions for proper changes of measure and well defined solutions are provided. These are the first analytical solutions for the 4/2 stochastic volatility model and the embedded 3/2 model for the type of excess returns established in .

This study investigates the country level determinants of liquidity synchronization and degrees of liquidity synchronization during economic growth volatility. As a non-diversifiable risk factor, liquidity co-movement shock spreads market wide and thus disrupts the overall functioning of the financial market. Firms in Asian markets operate in legal and regulatory environments distinct from those of firms analyzed in the previous literature. Comprehensive analyses of liquidity synchronicity in emerging markets are limited. A major knowledge gap pertaining to Asian emerging markets serves as the primary motivation for this study. Seven Asian emerging economies are selected from the MSCI emerging market index: Bangladesh, China, India, Indo-nesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and the Philippines for analysis from 2010 to 2019. The empirical findings show high levels of liquidity synchronicity in weaker economic and financial environments with low GDP growth, high inflation and interest rates and underdeveloped financial systems taking the form of low levels of private credit. Liquidity synchronicity is also affected by poor investor protection, political instability, weak rule of law and government ineffectiveness. Moreover, levels of liquidity synchronicity are higher in period of economic growth volatility.

In Shark Bay, a large hypersaline bay in Western Australia, longitudinal density gradients force gravitational circulation that is important for Bay-ocean exchange. Observations of vertical stratification and velocity are presented, confirming a steady near-bed dense water outflow from Shark Bay’s northern Geographe Channel that persisted through all stages of the tide. Outflow velocities were 2–3 times stronger than the outflows recorded previously in Naturaliste Channel (in the west) and were more resistant to breakdown by tidal mixing. Estimates of turbulent kinetic energy production derived from ADCP data using the variance method showed a more complex structure in Geographe Channel, due to shear associated with the stratified conditions, with peak levels of turbulence occurring during reversal of tidal flows. For both channels the main source of turbulence was tidal flow along the seabed, with the bottom current speed cubed, |U_b³|, providing a reasonable proxy for tidal mixing and prediction of dense water outflows from Shark Bay the majority of the time. Orientation and deeper water of Geographe Channel along the main axis of the longitudinal density gradient provided an explanation for the predominant outflow from the Bay’s northern entrance. These density-driven currents could potentially influence recruitment of commercially fished scallops and prawns through dispersal and flushing of larvae.

(1)Background:The purpose of the study was conducted to investigate the recovery of heart rate according to the performance level and rest interval conditions during 65%1RM bench press exercise;(2)Methods:The subjects of this study were eight healthy male college studentsin their 20 (years) attending University C. 1RM was measured before theexperiment, and the exercise sequence of six rest intervals (30sec, 1, 2, 3, 4,5min) was randomly selected and cross-distribution experiment. The experimental measurement was conducted a total of six times according to the rest interval condition (six conditions) once every 3 days to minimize the learning effect. The data was verified with repeated measures Two-way ANOVA and Contrast's repeated method was applied for post-comparison;(3)Results: First, the amount of exercise and the number of repetitions statistically substantially dropped (p<.001) as the number of sets rose, and a greater decline was shown when the rest periods got shorter. Second, the heart rate after exercise was increased significantly (p<.01) as the set progressed in the long rest interval conditions (4, 5min), and the heart rate after rest was increased statistically significantly (p<,05) as the set progressed in the short rest interval conditions (30sec, 1min). Third, the heart rate recovery rate (%) was able to perform more repetitions than in the short rest interval condition due to the relatively high physiological recovery of the neuromuscular and circulatory system under the long rest interval condition;(4)Conclusions: Therefore, according to the rest conditionduring the 65%1RM bench press exercise conducted in this study, the restinterval condition of 2~3min may be effective in improving muscular endurance,and the rest interval condition of 4~5min may be effective in improving muscular hypertrophy. As a result of this study, there was a significant difference in exercise performance (repetition) and physiological recovery depending on the rest interval condition according to the set progress during the same intensity resistance exercise. Through this, it is judged that it is possible to adjust the amount of exercise appropriate for the purpose of training by adjusting not only the intensity during resistance exercise but also the rest interval between sets.

Volatility estimation and quantile regression are relevant active research areas in statistics, machine learning and econometrics. In this work, we propose two procedures to estimate local variances in generic regression problems by using of kernel smoothers. The proposed schemes can be applied in multidimesional scenarios (not just for time series analysis) and easily in a multi-output framework, as well. Moreover, they allow the possibility of providing uncertainty estimation using a generic kernel smoother technique. Several numerical experiments show the benefits of the proposed methods, even comparing with benchmark techniques. One of these experiment involves a real dataset analysis.

This paper studies single change-point detection in the volatility of a class of parametric conditional heteroscedastic autoregressive nonlinear (CHARN) models. The conditional least-squares (CLS) estimators of the parameters are defined and are proved to be consistent. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov type-test for change-point detection is constructed and its null distribution is provided. An estimator of the change-point location is defined. Its consistency and its limiting distribution are studied in detail. A simulation experiment is carried out to assess the performance of the results which are also applied to two sets of real data.

Financial markets require a great deal of decision making from the investors and market makers. One metric that can help ease the process of decision making is investment risk which can be measured in two parts; systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk. Clear understanding of the volatilities in each risk component can be a powerful signal in recognizing the right assets to maximize the investment returns. In this paper, we focus on the idiosyncratic volatility values and pre-calculate the idiosyncratic volatility values for 31,198 members of NYSE, Amex and Nasdaq markets for the trades occurring between January 1963 and December 2019. Utilizing a subset of dataset, limited to Nasdaq100 index, we consider the application of machine learning techniques in predicting the idiosyncratic volatility values using the raw trade data to explore a data extension option for the future market trade records that have not yet occurred. We offer a deep learning based regression model and compare it with traditional tree-based methods on a small subset of our per-calculated idiosyncratic volatility dataset. Our analytical results show that the performance of the deep learning techniques is much more robust in comparison to that of the traditional tree-based baselines.

Green investors have expressed concerns about the environment and sustainability due to the high energy consumption involved in cryptocurrency mining and transactions. This article investigates the safe haven characteristics of clean energy stock indexes in relation to 3 cryptocurrencies, taking into account their respective levels of "dirty" energy consumption from May 16, 2018, to May 15, 2023. By virtue of analyzing a tumultuous era in the global economy, the level of integration between clean energy stock indexes and cryptocurrencies will be inferred by using Gregory and Hansen's methodology. Furthermore, to assess the presence of a volatility spillover effect between clean energy stock indexes and “dirty-classified” cryptocurrencies, the ?-test of heteroscedasticity of two samples from Forbes and Rigobon will be employed. The empirical findings show that clean energy stock indexes may offer a viable safe haven for dirty energy cryptocurrencies. However, the precise associations differ depending on the cryptocurrency under examination. The implications of the study's results are significant for investment strategies, this knowledge can inform decision-making procedures and facilitate the adoption of sustainable investment practices. Investors and policymakers can gain a deeper understanding of the interplay between investments in renewable energy and the cryptocurrency market.

The research is a deep study of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which represent the market sentiments of the S & P 500 Index (SPX) over a period of 33 years. It evaluates how the two indexes perform in the stock market crash and how reliable VIX is in predicting market sentiments. The research distributes the market rally in two forms, and one is a trust rally, when investors are happy to see the market in a stable form, and investors' sentiments are positive towards the stock market. Second is a fear rally, where investors' sentiments are negative, and their outlook is bearish for various reasons. It observes the pattern of rallies, like the longest trust or fear rally, in which year and its duration. The research analyzes data to reach a meaningful conclusion and various inferences that can be drawn from the study of historical data.

Recent years' global shocks (e.g., the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic) and environmental shocks - such as natural disasters - have heightened the vulnerability of developing countries to future shocks, and can compromise their development prospects. International institutions and researchers have advocated that the strengthening of productive capacities in these countries would help them enhance the resilience of their economies to shocks, and promote sustainable development. The present paper has examined the effect of productive capacities on economic growth and economic growth volatility in developing countries, in particular when they face a high level of structural economic vulnerability. The analysis covers 117 developing countries over the period 2000-2018. It shows that productive capacities do not only promote economic growth, but also reduce economic growth volatility. On the other hand, structural economic vulnerability reduces economic growth, in particular when it exceeds a certain level, and induces greater volatility of economic growth. Interestingly, the findings suggest that productive capacities promote economic growth and reduce economic growth volatility in countries that face a high degree of structural economic vulnerability. These findings support the recommendation by international institutions and researchers that if they were to enhance the resilience of their economies to shocks, and promote sustainable economic growth, developing countries (in particular the poorest ones) should strengthen their productive capacities.

Experimental systems to simulate future elevated CO2 conditions in the field often have large, rapid fluctuations in CO2. To examine possible impacts of such fluctuations on photosynthesis, intact leaves of field grown plants of five species were exposed to two-minute cycles of CO2 between 400 and 800 mol mol-1 lasting a total of 10 minutes, with photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and PSII fluorescence measured at the end of each half-cycle, and also 10 minutes after the end of the cycling. Prior to the cyclic CO2 treatments, steady-state responses of leaf gas exchange and fluorescence to CO2 were determined. In four of the five species, in which stomatal conductance decreased with increasing CO2, the cyclic CO2 treatments reduced stomatal conductance. In those species, both photosynthesis and the photochemical efficiency of PSII were reduced at limiting internal CO2 levels, but not at saturating CO2. In the fifth species, there was no change in stomatal conductance with CO2, and no change in either photosynthesis or PSII efficiency at any CO2 level with CO2 cycling. It is concluded that in many, but not all, species fluctuations in CO2 may reduce photosynthesis at low CO2 partly by decreasing the photochemical efficiency of photosystem II, as well as by decreasing stomatal conductance.

The majority of E-commerce transactions reveal private information such as customers' identities, order contents, and payment information during the transaction. Other personal information such as health conditions, religion, and even ethnicity may be also deduced. Even when deploying electronic cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, anonymity cannot be fully guaranteed. Also, many anonymous payment schemes suffer from possible double spending circumstances. E-commerce privacy is basically a difficult problem as it involves parties with concurring interests. Three major e-commerce requirements are highly difficult to resolve: anonymous purchase, anonymous delivery, and anonymous payment. This work presents a possible e-commerce system addressing all three anonymity requirements for electronic-items business on open networks. The system offers anonymous entities authentication mechanisms up to completing a fair anonymous e-commerce transaction. The system is based on deploying a physically clone-resistant hardware token for each relevant involved party. The tokens are made clone-resistant by accommodating a Secret Unknown Cipher (SUC) in each hardware-token as a digital PUF-like identity. A set of novel generic system-setups for units, protocols and e-commerce schemes is introduced. The proposed anonymization is basically attained by virtually-replacing relevant e-commerce entities by low-cost, unique and clone-resistant tokens/units using SUCs. The units act as trustable anonymous, authenticated and non-replaceable entities monitored by their acting users.

This work shows the physicochemical and mineralogical characterization of diatomites form the Hidalgo and Jalisco States, Mexico. In the case of the mineral from Hidalgo State, this has the following chemical composition; 70.0 % wt. SiO₂, 11.63 wt. % Al₂O₃, 1.95 wt. % FeO, 1.79 wt. % MgO, 2.41 wt. % K₂O, 0.85 wt. % CaO and 6.10 wt. % Na₂O. On the other hand, the mineral from Jalisco has the following chemical composition; 93.58 wt. % SiO₂, 3.03 wt. % Al₂O₃, 1.81 wt. % FeO, 0.40 wt. % MgO, 0.92 wt. % K₂O, 0.11 wt. % CaO and 0.24 wt. % Na₂O. For recovery of metals, both minerals got arsenic, silver, lead and nickel recoveries upper to 95 % and lower to 10 % for chromium. According to efficiency of interchange, the mineral from Hidalgo is slightly higher in the case of arsenic, lead and silver; while for nickel and particularly chromium (VI) the efficiency is higher for the mineral from Jalisco.

The paper proposes a mechanism for the impact of changes in the key rate on the volume of newly issued loans. The volume depends on the price (interest rates on loans), and the price depends on the key rate and the actual consumption of loans in the previous period (generalized cobweb cycle). The model was estimated by a Kalman filter, adequacy was confirmed by simulation. It is possible to forecast the average rate on loans for a month in advance according to the information published by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CB). By playing various scenarios for changing the key rate, it was found that in quiet periods of economic development, the usual laws of supply and demand operate in the loan market and by raising the key rate, you can reduce inflation. In the turbulent (overheated) state of the economy, an increase in the key rate can, on the contrary, provoke an increase in the issuance of loans and unconventional manipulations with the key rate are required.

Average of 41,900 patients are diagnosed annually with staphylococcus bacterial infection in California, 24,089 patients have Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) and 17,810 patients have Methicillin-Sensitive Staphylococcus (MSSA). This paper demonstrates that there is a difference in mortality rate due to staphylococcus infection between males and females (P-value<0.05, CI 95%). Male patient diagnosed with S. aureus has 1.3 chance of mortality incidence than female patient. In addition, MRSA infection rate is 1.4 times MSSA infection (P-value<0.05, CI 95%), but the gap of infection is decreasing; however, mortality of both infections combined are more than threefold greater compared to three decades ago.

In real financial markets, the certainty equivalent rate is an important factor for investors to consider. From the value of a specific company’s certainty equivalent rate, investors can judge if this company is worth investing in. In this paper, we will explore how to obtain the value of the certainty equivalent rate so that we can evaluate a given company. First, we will introduce the theoretical support of this paper, which is put-call parity. From put-call parity, we will derive the mathematical expression for the certainty equivalent rate. Second, we will use the mathematical expression for the certainty equivalent rate to perform an empirical study. We will consider some extreme examples, including some of the best- and worst-performing stocks up to this point in 2023. Based on these stocks’ data, we will visualize the performance of these stocks and explain the meaning of the data. Finally, we will apply the results to a very popular industry—the electric vehicle industry—to explore the current electric vehicle market situation in the U.S.A.

This study rigorously investigates the impact of COVID-19 on the Tunisian stock market volatility. The investigation spans from January 2020 to December 2022, employing a GJR-GARCH model, bias-corrected wavelet analysis, and an ARDL approach. Specific variables related to health measures and government interventions are incorporated. The findings highlight that confirmed and death cases contribute significantly to the escalation in TUNINDEX volatility. Interestingly, certain indices related to government interventions exhibit no substantial impact on volatility, indicating a weak resilience of the Tunisian stock market amidst the challenges posed by COVID-19. However, the application of the bias-corrected wavelet analysis yields more nuanced outcomes in terms of correlations of volatility to the same metrics. Notably, the study recognizes the potential influence of uncertainties linked to the duration of lockdowns on financial market volatility. The positive and long-term impact on volatility of the US Equity Market uncertainty and VIX is evident through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), whereas economic policy uncertainty shows no significant impact. This indicates a potential vulnerability of the Tunisian stock market to future shocks, emphasizing the need for government efforts to instill investor confidence. This comprehensive exploration contributes to our understanding of the dynamics between the pandemic’ metrics, government interventions, and financial market stability. Our findings provide valuable insights for implementing risk management strategies amid the COVID‐19 crisis.

This study challenges the prevailing belief in the necessity of complex models for accurate forecasting by demonstrating the effectiveness of parsimonious econometric models, namely ARCH(1) and GARCH(1,1), over deep learning robust approaches, such as LSTM and 1D-CNN neural networks, in modeling historical volatility within pre-emerging stock markets, specifically the Moroccan and Bahraini stock markets. The findings suggest reevaluating the balance between model complexity and predictive accuracy. Future research directions include investigating the potential existence of threshold effects in market capitalization for optimal model performance. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of volatility dynamics and enhances forecasting models’ effectiveness in diverse market conditions.

Water electrolysis provides efficient and cost-effective production of hydrogen from renewable energy. Currently, the oxidation half-cell reaction relies on noble-metal catalysts, impeding widespread application. In order to adopt water electrolyzers as the main hydrogen production systems, it is critical to develop inexpensive and earth-abundant catalysts. This review discusses the proton exchange membrane (PEM) water electrolysis (WE) and the progress in replacing the noble-metal catalysts with earth-abundant ones. Researchers within this field are aiming to improve the efficiency and stability of earth-abundant catalysts (EACs), as well as to discover new ones. The latter is particularly important for the oxygen evolution reaction (OER) under acidic media, where the only stable and efficient catalysts are noble-metal oxides, such as IrO_x and RuO_x. On the other hand, there is significant progress on EACs for the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) in acidic conditions, but how many of these EACs have been used in PEM WEs and tested under realistic conditions? What is the current status on the development of EACs for the OER? These are the two main questions this review addresses.

In this paper, I propose new models of quantum information processing using the exchange interaction in physical systems. The partial SWAP operator that can be realized using the exchange interaction is used as the underlying resource for defining models of quantum computation, quantum communication, quantum memory and decoherence-free subspaces. Given the non-commutativity of these operators (for adjacent operators operating on a common qubit), a number of quantum states and entanglement patters can be obtained. This zoo of states can be classified, due to the parity constraints and permutation symmetry of the states, into invariant subspaces that are used for the definition of some of the applications in this paper.

We have developed deep learning models for automatic identification of the maternal heart rate (MHR) and, more generally, false signals (FSs) on fetal heart rate (FHR) recordings. The models can be used to preprocess FHR data prior to automated analysis or as a clinical alert system to assist the practitioner. Three models were developed and used to detect (i) FSs on the MHR channel (the FSMHR model), (ii) the MHR and FSs on the Doppler FHR sensor (the FSDop model), and (iii) FSs on the scalp ECG channel (the FSScalp model). The FSDop model was the most useful because FSs are far more frequent on the Doppler FHR channel. All three models were based on a multilayer, symmetric, GRU and were trained on data recorded during the first and second stages of delivery. The FSMHR and FSDop models were also trained on antepartum recordings. The training dataset contained 1030 expert-annotated periods (mean duration: 36 min) from 635 recordings. In an initial evaluation of routine clinical practice, 30 fully annotated recordings for each sensor type (mean duration: 5 h for MHR and Doppler sensors, and 3 h for the scalp ECG sensor) were analyzed. The sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV) and accuracy were respectively 62.20%, 87.1% and 99.90% for the FSMHR model, 93.1%, 95.6% and 99.68% for the FSDop model, and 44.6%, 87.2% and 99.93% for the FSScalp model. We built a second test dataset with a more solid ground truth by selecting 45 periods (lasting 20 min, on average) on which the Doppler FHR and scalp ECG signals were recorded simultaneously. Using scalp ECG data, the experts estimated the true FHR value more reliably and thus annotated the Doppler FHR channel more precisely. The models achieved a sensitivity of 53.3%, a PPV of 62.4%, and an accuracy of 97.29%. In comparison, two experts (blinded to the scalp ECG data) respectively achieved a sensitivity of 15.7%, a PPV of 74.3%, and an accuracy of 96.91% and a sensitivity of 60.7%, a PPV of 83.5% and an accuracy of 98.24%. Hence, the models performed at expert level (better than one expert and worse than the other), although a well-trained expert with good knowledge of FSs could probably do better in some cases. The models and datasets have been included in the Fetal Heart Rate Morphological Analysis open-source MATLAB toolbox and can be used freely for research purposes.

Shrubs are a significant component of urban vegetation residing in parks, but they experience various influences of biotic and abiotic agents, among which aphids play an important role. In this work, the effect of aphid colonization on three shrub species in urban environment was examined. Fourteen parameters have been analyzed, describing photosynthetic pigment content and gas exchange to carbon, nitrogen, and hydrogen partition. While no significant effect of colonization was found on photosynthetic pigment parameters, the effect was significant on gas exchange parameters. The strongest effect aphid colonization achieved on nitrogen partition and C/N ratio, parameters that could be suggested in further similar studies. All parameters were classified in two groups according to principal component analysis, suggesting correlation between nitrogen and carbon content, C/N ratio, measured gas exchange parameters and chlorophyll a content. The ratio between net photosynthesis and dark respiration (A/K) was in the second group, suggesting that this parameter provide additional information on the effect of aphid colonization, and deserve special attention in further studies. There were differences in reaction of examined shrub species, where the strongest reaction by gross primary productivity (GPP) achieved Hybiscus syriacus, and by nitrogen partition and C/N ratio Spirea trilobata and Cydonia japonica.

This paper uses panel data to find the determinants of tracking errors in exchange traded funds (ETFs) in the Hong Kong stock market. A comparison of tracking errors between physical and synthetic ETFs also indicates that the synthetic ETFs have higher tracking errors. The magnitude of tracking errors is found to be negatively related to size but positively related to dividend yield, trading volumes of funds, and market risk. However, this study also finds that expense ratio has a negative impact on tracking error, which is not consistent with previous studies, and which this paper addresses.

Different values of the Hubble constant for extragalactic objects are not considered here. We give a number of examples of the extreme accordance of expansion rates of different fields of knowledge with the cosmological expansion rate. The coincidence of the expansion rates means that a common cause is almost inevitable. All these examples are gravitationally bound in themselves and in this case are subject to cosmological expansion. According to standard theory, this should not happen. We therefore question the common boundary of gravity and expansion for both theoretical and observational reasons and conclude that all gravitationally dominated objects participate in cosmological expansion or scale drift, contrary to general doctrine. The space expands with its contents while numerically maintaining distance, radius, rotation time and density. What is generally interpreted as an expansion is obviously a scale drift with a drift rate that corresponds to the size of the Hubble constant. The Earth is subject to expansion and scale drift. This results in numerically constant measured values. This drift apparently also applies to distant galaxies and other objects. The cosmological red shift is not interpreted here as a Doppler effect and numerical increase in distances, but in accordance with standard theory as an expansion or drift of the space-time scale. The expansion of the radii of galaxies makes the assumption of dark matter superfluous. The continents and our everyday environment are not subject to expansion or scale drift.

Demographic and socio-economic developments couple with other requirements to satisfy human needs result in rapid urban expansion sometimes with increasing rate of surface extent greater than the rate of growth of population, that result in continuous sealing of ground surface thereby affecting ecosystem services. This study applied remote sensing toward achieving the progress of SDGs and stage to determine the ratio of the rate of land consumption to the rate of population growth of Gombe metropolis. QGIS 2.18 was used for the image processing and classification analysis for the key Landsat ETM+ (Enhanced Thematic Mapper), Impervious Surface Indices and population data to inform on the urban trend and LCR/PGR for the periods 2000-2005, 2005-2010, and 2010-2015. The result appears that the LCR/PGR for the periods of study show split trends. During 2000-2005 the result shows that the study area expanded outward with LCR/PGR of 1.2. The result also indicate that during 2005-2010, the study area densified with little expansion with the LCR/PGR of 0.8. The result further reveals that during 2010-2015 the LCR/PGR reached 1.8. Pointing that the study area expanded outward with the rate of ground sealing getting high.

ABSTRACT The present study aimed to investigate the presence of asymmetric stochastic volatility and leverage effects within the Nasdaq-100 index. This index is widely regarded as an important indicator for investors. We focused on the nine leading stocks within the index, which are highly popular and hold significant weight in the investment world. These stocks are Netflix, PayPal, Google, Intel, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Apple, and Meta. The study covered the period between 03/01/2017 and 30/01/2023, and we employed the Eviews and WinBUGS applications to conduct the analysis. We began by calculating the logarithmic difference to obtain the return series. We then performed a sample test with 100,000 iterations, excluding the first 10,000 samples to eliminate the initial bias of the coefficients. This left us with 90,000 samples for analysis. Using the results of the asymmetric stochastic volatility model, we evaluated both the Nasdaq-100 index as a whole and the volatility persistence, predictability, and correlation levels of individual stocks. This allowed us to evaluate the ability of individual stocks to represent the characteristics of the Nasdaq-100 index. Our findings revealed a dense clustering of volatility, both for the Nasdaq-100 index and the nine individual stocks. We observed that this volatility is continuous but has a predictable impact on variability. Moreover, with the exception of Intel, all the stocks in the model exhibited both leverage effects and the presence of asymmetric relationships, as did the Nasdaq-100 index as a whole. Overall, our results show that the characteristics of stocks in the model are similar to the volatility characteristic of the Nasdaq-100 index and have the ability to represent it.

Volatility is the most widespread measure of risk. Volatility modeling allows investors to capture potential losses and investment opportunities. This work aims to examine the impact of the two waves of COVID-19 infections on the return and volatility of the stock market indices of the euro area countries. The study also focuses on other important aspects such as time-varying risk premium and leverage effect. Thus, this investigation employed the Threshold GARCH(1,1)-in-Mean model with exogenous dummy variables. Daily returns of ten euro area stock indices from 4th January 2016 to 31th December 2020 has been used for the analysis. The results reveal that euro area stock markets respond differently to the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, the first wave of COVID-19 infections had a notable impact on stock market volatility of euro area countries with large and middle financial centres while the second wave had a significant impact only on stock market volatility of Belgium.

It is known that ammonium has a higher permeability through anion-exchange and bipolar membranes compared to K+ cation that has the same mobility in water. However, the mechanism of this high permeability is not clear enough. We develop a mathematical model based of the Nernst-Planck and Poisson equations for diffusion of ammonium chloride through an anion-exchange membrane; proton exchange reactions between ammonium, water and ammonia are taken into account. It is assumed that ammonium, chloride and OH− ions can only pass through membrane hydrophilic pores, while ammonia can also dissolve in membrane matrix fragments not containing water and diffuse through these fragments. It is found that due to the Donnan exclusion of H+ ions as coions, the pH in the membrane internal solution increases when approaching the membrane side facing distilled water. Consequently, there is a change in the principal nitrogen-atom carrier in the membrane: in the part close to the side facing the feed NH4Cl solution (pH&lt;8.8), it is the NH4+ cation, and in the part close to distilled water, NH3 molecules. The concentration of NH4+ reaches almost zero at a point close to the middle of the membrane cross-section, which approximately halves the effective thickness of the diffusion layer for the transport of this ion. When NH3 takes over the nitrogen transport, it only needs to pass through the other half of the membrane. Leaving the membrane, it captures an H+ ion from water, and the released OH− goes towards the membrane side facing the feed solution to meet the NH4+ ions. The comparison of the simulation with experiment shows a satisfactory agreement.

The Algiers Stock Exchange (ASE) is the only stock exchange in Algeria. It’s one of the newest and smallest emerging stock exchanges in the world. The focus of this paper is to model and forecast monthly returns of the ASE index (DZAIRINDEX) using The Box- Jenkins methodology. The period of this study is from Jun 2010 to July 2019. According to Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) estimator, the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average SARIMA(2,0,0)(0,0,1) is chosen as the best model for forecasting the monthly DZAIRINDEX returns. Diagnostic tests confirm that the fitted model is adequate, where the residuals of this model are normally distributed with no autocorrelation and no heteroskedasticity. The forecast of the monthly DZAIRINDEX returns for one year ahead using this model shows a decreasing fluctuations trend. Based on different measures of forecast accuracy such as ME, MAE, RMSE, MASE, we show that the forecast accuracy of SARIMA(2,0,0)(0,0,1) is acceptable and this model performs much better than a naïve model. These results could be used by the financial communities in Algeria to deal with stock exchange risks and to improve their decisions.

This study aims to examines three elements shape leadership in Leader-Member Exchange (LMX) theory as a relationship and process. LMX quality is important for the company, because it relates to employee behavior and attitudes, including improving employee performance. The research method applied literature review using description logic and systematics. In this article the theory will be observed specially the effect of LMX on employee performance and antecedents of LMX. The results of the study found that the effect of LMX quality on performance is determined by the characteristics of the task as antecedent LMX in the company.

Swarm electrification-driven communities face significant challenges, including implementing advanced distributed control in areas with limited ICT access and establishing trust among villagers hesitant to grant access to their assets. This paper proposes a distributed DC microgrid architecture for P2P energy exchange in these communities, ensuring stability and effective exchange operation. By implementing a Blockchain marketplace specifically designed to suit the rural context, the proposed architecture ensures tracing of exchange transactions to fairly settle participants. Validation experiments demonstrate its efficacy in achieving peak shaving. It provides 11% of the requester's total demand from the community even while maintaining the constraint of reducing discharge-charge cycles to one per day, thereby preserving battery life. Additionally, the solution reduces prosumer production losses by 16% of the total PV production.

We propose an experimental method for the unidirectional excitation of spin waves. By structuring Au nanowires arrays within a coplanar waveguide onto a thin yttrium iron garnet (YIG) film, we observe a chiral coupling between the excitation field geometry of the nanowires grating and several well-resolved propagating magnon modes. We report a propagating spin wave spectroscopy study with unprecedented spectral definition, wavelengths down to 130 nm and attenuation lengths well above the 100 μm over the 20 GHz frequency band. The proposed experiment paves the way for future non-reciprocal magnonic devices.

Purpose: We evaluated the outcomes of fluid-gas exchange (FGE) for long-term flap closure of idiopathic macular hole (MH) after the inverted internal limiting (ILM) flap technique. Methods: We included eyes showed flap closure without complete MH closure, connection of the apart macular tissue, 1 month postoperatively after the inverted ILM flap technique. The eyes stayed at flap closure at 2 months postoperatively further underwent in-office FGE with 16% C3F8. Results: Among 10 eyes, 5 eyes (50%) showed flap closure at 2 months postoperatively further underwent FGE for complete MH closure while the remaining 5 eyes (50%) progressed directly at 2 months postoperatively. The improvement in vision of all flap closure from baseline was significant (p=0.015), with the mean baseline vision was 1.19 [Snellen equivalent (SE), 20/307] ± 0.52 logMAR and the mean final vision being 0.63 (SE, 20/85) ± 0.38 logMAR. The group that underwent FGE showed a better final vision of 0.45 (SE, 20/75) ± 0.23 logMAR than the group that didn’t undergo FGE (0.81 [SE, 20/128] ±0.44 logMAR). All eyes achieved complete MH closure, including the eyes that underwent FGE in a mean period of 5.60 months (range 3-10 months) after the inverted ILM flap technique. The eyes that underwent FGE achieved higher rate of foveal restoration [complete external limiting membrane (ELM): 80%; complete ellipsoid zone (EZ): 60%] than those that didn’t receive FGE (complete ELM: 40%; complete EZ: 10%). Conclusions: Eyes that underwent FGE accelerated complete MH closure and showed better final vision and fovea l restoration.

The objective of this study is to determine the impact of COVID-19 on the performance of Pakistani Stock Market. This study uses the data of COVID-19 related positive cases, fatalities, recovers and the closing prices of PSX 100 index of the first half of 2020. The findings of the study suggest that only COVID-19 recoveries are influencing the performance of the index and the daily positive cases and fatalities are insignificantly related to the performance. Further studies can be performed by incorporating other variables such as economic growth, interest rate and inflation rate along with the COVID-19 related variables at a cross-country level.

Teachers of English as a foreign language in Taiwan are challenged to organize multi-dimensional language activities for foreign students coming from ASEAN countries, including Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Vietnam. With different cultural backgrounds, these students have different prior knowledge of Taiwanese culture, and, because of the similarities and differences between Taiwan and these countries, it is meaningful to explore the development of globalization with the students, who are learning both English and Chinese. The different historical backgrounds, various cultural and religious differences, and social conditions, such as gender relationships in working places, are significant topics for class discussions. When teachers serve as discussion facilitators, they encourage students to express their own multi-identities and expectations for the exchange program. Most interesting of all is to find out about their own short-term and long-term career goals. 32 foreign students from the Philippines and Vietnam were recruited for research. Questionnaires were used to assess their foreign language learning motivation and strategies, as well as to discover the learning environment they prefer and their globalization prospects. It was found that multi-lingual language policies for promoting globalization in higher education are very likely to influence the success of foreign student study in Taiwan.

The rationalization of single molecule magnets’ (SMMs) magnetic properties by quantum mechanical approaches represents a major task in the field of the Molecular Magnetism. The fundamental interpretative key of molecular magnetism is the phenomenological Spin Hamiltonian and the understanding of the role of its different terms by electronic structure calculations is expected to steer the rational design of new and more performing SMMs. This paper deals with the ab initio calculation of isotropic and anisotropic exchange contributions in the Fe(III) dimer [Fe₂(OCH₃)₂(dbm)₄]. This system represents the building block of one of the most studied Single Molecule Magnets ([Fe₄RC(CH₂O)₃)₂(dpm)₆] where R can be an aliphatic chain or a phenyl group just to name the most common functionalization groups) and its relatively reduced size allows the use of a high computational level of theory. Calculations were performed using CASSCF and NEVPT2 approaches on the X-ray geometry as assessment of the computational protocol, which has then be used to evinced the importance of the outer coordination shell nature through organic ligand modelization. Magneto-structural correlations as function of internal degrees of freedom for isotropic and anisotropic exchange contributions are also presented, outlining for the first time the extremely rapidly changing nature of the anisotropic exchange coupling.

This study explores the effect of seasonality on soil carbon efflux and pasture growth based on field and lysimeter experiments during summer-fall and winter-spring in two years. Focus is also pointed on irrigation strategies to alleviate the crop response to seasonal fluctuations in precipitation and surface temperatures. Soil respiration, soil and air temperature, leaf photosynthesis, plant dry weight and leaf area index were quantified and analyzed. It has been found significant differences in the CO₂ efflux between the two growing season. Emission of soil CO₂ allowed to characterize and to prioritize the temperature and rain influence in seasonal brachiaria response. During the seasons, the transient variation of CO₂ efflux was highly correlated with rainfall (r = 0.87, P < 0.05), and poorly correlated with soil temperatures (r = 0.5, P < 0.05). The CO₂ efflux and plant response to different level of reposition of evapotranspiration demonstrated that irrigation during fall mitigates the reduction of growth conditioned by drying soil and the lower temperatures. The lower temperatures are limiting only when the soil moisture is below 32% of the field capacity. Thus, we propose to keep the soil moisture around 50% during the fall as a key practices for mitigating the effect of seasonality and its intensification with the climate change, even more if added to management routine practices the soil and water conservation.

Language is an essential aspect of teaching and learning mathematics. It is necessary for communicating, transmission of concepts and ideas, and formation of meaning of mathematical concepts. In mathematics, besides symbols, which are usually common in different languages, words and expressions are used, which may invoke different concept images to students in various languages. Some words are used in mathematics and in everyday language with different meanings, while others are used only in mathematics or in mathematics and other disciplines in similar but non-identical ways. In Mathematical Analysis, the used vocabulary is gradually enhanced, and the concepts are defined in a more formal way. In the current study, the language used regarding mathematics of change is examined, focusing on rate of change and in relation to misconceptions of students.

We explored the dynamics of the two interacting information systems. We show that for the Markovian marginal systems the driving force for information dynamics is determined by both the information landscape and information flux. While the information landscape can be used to construct the driving force to describe the equilibrium time reversible information system dynamics, the information flux can be used to describe the nonequilibrium time-irreversible behaviours of the information system dynamics. The information flux explicitly breaks the detailed balance and is a direct measure of the degree of the nonequilibriumness or time irreversibility. We further demonstrate that the mutual information rate between the two subsystems can be decomposed into the equilibrium time-reversible and nonequilibrium time-irreversible parts respectively. This decomposition of the mutual information rate (MIR) corresponds to the information landscape-flux decomposition explicitly when the two subsystems behave as Markov chains. Finally, we uncover the intimate relationship between the nonequilibrium thermodynamics in terms of the entropy production rates and the time-irreversible part of the mutual information rate. We found that this relationship and MIR decomposition still hold for the more general stationary and ergodic cases. We demonstrate the above features with two examples of the bivariate Markov chains.

In financial time series modelling and forecasting, combining ARMA and GARCH models tend to produce superior and reliable models for volatility persistence, half-life volatility and backtesting (application of model in real life). In Nigeria, banking stocks are mostly traded because of its potential benefits to investors. This study modelled and forecasted the Guaranty Trust (GT) Bank daily stock returns from January 2^nd 2001 to May 8^th 2017 data set collected from a secondary source. The ARMA-GARCH models, persistence, half-life and backtesting were used to analysed the collected data using student t and skewed student t distributions, and the analyses are carried out R environment using rugard and performanceAnaytics Packages. The study revealed that using the lowest information criteria values only could be misleading rather we added the use of backtesing. The ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) models fitted exhibited high persistency in the daily stock returns while the days it takes for mean-reverting of the models ranges from 5 days to 100 days but unfortunately the models failed backtesting. The results further revealed ARMA(1,1)-eGARCH (2,2) model with student t distribution provides a suitable model for evaluating the GT bank stock returns among the competing models while it takes less than 30 days for the persistence volatility to return back to its average value of the stock returns. This study recommended that researchers should adopt backtesting approach while fitting GARCH models while GT bank stocks investor should be assured that no matter the fluctuations in the stock market, the GT bank stock returns has the ability to returns to its mean price return.

Over the last two decades, knowledge production, research and reconfiguration of universities have been understood as ways of giving new meanings to the university-society binomial. In this regard, humanities are the subject of multiple debates in the face of ideas about their impact in relation to the "other sciences". Based on these premises, this article sets out to explore possible meanings attributed by researchers to the concepts of commitment, mobilization and transfer of research in humanities in view of the debates on the university-society interaction and the third mission of the university (Alonso, Cuschnir and Napoli, 2021). The methodology used will address bibliographical analysis, theoretical background and statements from different institutions, as well as the analysis of material from four interviews. As a first instance, the preliminary results show that strengthening critical thinking as forms of commitment emerge as central senses, focusing on hungarian characteristics and productions in order to unravel the ways of understanding and imagining Eastern European reality. In this respect, the discussion of certain western knowledge is seen as a task associated with social commitment with public universities as a focus of resistance.