Reliability analysis techniques are customary standard tools that are used for evaluating the performance of different equipment and devices in order to minimize their downtime. To predict the reliability, life data from a sample that is satisfactorily representative of the equipment should be fitted to the suitable statistical distribution. The parameterized distribution may be used to estimate essential characteristics such as failure rate; and probability at a precise time, as well as system reliability. In the current study, Weibull++/ALTA software package is used as a novel tool to fit the available data set to estimate the best fitted probability density function (PDF) using Maximum Likelihood (MLE) for parameter estimation. The determined distributions are then assessed using goodness-of-fit test to define how well it fits the available data set. There are multiple methods for determining goodness-of-fit. Weibull distributions and their special cases’ parameters have an effect on life times.

In recent decades, there have been numerous endeavors to develop a novel category of survival distributions possessing enhanced flexibility through the extension of existing distributions. This article constructs and validates the statistical properties of a novel survival distribution in order to obtain an alternative distribution that is suitable for analyzing survival data by presenting the novel mixture of the Fréchet distribution along with statistical properties such as the probability density function (PDF), cumulative distribution function (CDF), rth ordinary moment, skewness, kurtosis, moment-generating function, mean, variance, mode, survival function, hazard function, and asymptotic behavior, as well as constructing the estimators of the unknown parameter by employing the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, and simulated annealing. Additionally, the performance of the proposed estimators was compared with bias, mean squared errors (MSE), and simulated variances, and given an illustrative example of the proposed distribution to the survival data set in order to show that the proposed distribution is appropriate for the right-skewed data. This will be extremely advantageous in survival analysis.

This paper extends the Stochastic Method of Cuts (SMoC) to approximate of the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) of urban networks and uses Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method to estimate the model parameters based on empirical data from a corridor and 30 cities around the world. For the corridor case, the estimated values are in good agreement with the measured values of the parameters. For the network datasets, the results indicate that the method yields satisfactory parameter estimates and graphical fits for roughly 50\% of the studied networks, where estimations fall within the expected range of the parameter values. The satisfactory estimates are mostly for the datasets which (i) cover a relatively wider range of densities and (ii) the average flow values at different densities are approximately normally distributed similar to the probability density function of the SMoC. The estimated parameter values are compared to the real or expected values and any discrepancies and their potential causes are discussed in depth to identify the challenges in the MFD estimation both analytically and empirically. In particular, we find that the most important issues needing further investigation are: (i) the distribution of loop detectors within the links, (ii) the distribution of loop detectors across the network, and (iii) the treatment of unsignalized intersections and their impact on the block length.

COVID-19 national spikes had been reported at varying temporal scales as a result of differences in the driving factors. Factors affecting case load and mortality rates have varied between countries and regions. We investigated the association between various socio-economic, demographic and health variables with the spread on COVID-19 cases in Eswatini using the maximum likelihood estimation method for count data. A generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model was fitted with the data comprising of fifteen covariates to predict COVID-19 risk in Eswatini. The results showed that variables that were key determinants in the spread of the disease were those that included the proportion of elderly above 55 years at 98% (95% CI: 97%-99%) and the proportion of youth below 35 years at 0.08% (95% CI: 0.017%-38%) with a pseudo R-square of 0.72. However, in the early phase of the virus when cases were fewer, results from the Poisson regression showed that household size, household density and poverty index were associated with COVID-19. We produced a risk map of predicted COVID-19 in Eswatini using the variables that were selected at 5% significance level. The map could be used by the country to plan and prioritize health interventions against COVID-19. The identified areas of high risk may be further investigated in order to find out the risk amplifiers and assess what could be done to prevent them.

Most existing flexible count regression models allow only approximate inference. Balanced discretization is a simple method to produce a mean-parametrizable flexible count distribution starting from a continuous probability distribution. This makes easy the definition of flexible count regression models allowing exact inference under various types of dispersion (equi-, under- and overdispersion). This study describes maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and inference in count regression based on balanced discrete gamma (BDG) distribution and introduces a likelihood ratio based latent equidispersion (LE) test to identify the parsimonious dispersion model for a particular dataset. A series of Monte Carlo experiments were carried out to assess the performance of ML estimates and the LE test in the BDG regression model, as compared to the popular Conway-Maxwell-Poisson model (CMP). The results show that the two evaluated models recover population effects even under misspecification of dispersion related covariates, with coverage rates of asymptotic 95% confidence interval approaching the nominal level as the sample size increases. The BDG regression approach, nevertheless, outperforms CMP regression in very small samples (n = 15 − 30), mostly in overdispersed data. The LE test proves appropriate to detect latent equidispersion, with rejection rates converging to the nominal level as the sample size increases. Two applications on real data are given to illustrate the use of the proposed approach to count regression analysis.

Generalized distributions have been studied a lot recently because of their flexibility and relia-bility in modeling lifetime data. The two-parameter exponentially-modified logistic distribution is a new flexible modified distribution that was introduced recently. It is regarded as a strong competitor for widely used classical symmetrical and non-symmetrical distributions such as normal, logistic, lognormal, and log-logistic. In this study, the unknown parameters of the dis-tribution are estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The Grey Wolf Optimization al-gorithm, which is a new meta-heuristic algorithm, is applied in order to solve the nonlinear like-lihood equations of the study model. The performance of the Grey Wolf Optimization method is compared to that of the other meta-heuristic algorithms used in this study, which include the Whale Optimization Algorithm, the Sine Cosine Algorithm, and the Particle Swarm Optimiza-tion Algorithm. The efficiencies of maximum likelihood estimates for all algorithms are com-pared via an extensive Monte-Carlo simulation study. The likelihood estimates for the location α and scale β parameters of the exponentially-modified logistic distribution developed with the Grey Wolf Optimization algorithm are the most efficient among others, according to simulation findings. Four real datasets are analyzed to show the flexibility of this distribution.

The severity of forest fires derived from remote sensing data for research and management has become increasingly widespread in the last decade, where these data typically quantify the pre- and post-fire spectral change between satellite images on multi-spectral sensors. However, there is an active discussion about which of the main indices (dNBR, RdNBR or RBR) is the most adequate to estimate the severity of the fire, as well about the adjustment model used in the classification of severity levels. This study proposes and evaluates a new technique for mapping severity as an alternative to regression models, based on the use of the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) automatic learning algorithm, from GeoCBI field data and spectral indices dNBR, RdNBR and RBR applied to Landsat TM, ETM+ Images, for two fires in central Spain. We compare the severity discrimination capability on dNBR, RdNBR and RBR, through a spectral separability index (M) and then evaluated the concordance of these metrics with field data based on GeoCBI measurements. Specifically, we evaluated the correspondence (R²) between each metric and the continuous measurement of fire severity (GeoCBI) and the general precision of the regression and MLE models, for the four categorized levels of severity (Unburned, Low, Moderate, and High). The results show that the RBR has more spectral separability (average between two fires M = 2.00) that the dNBR (M = 1.82) and the RdNBR (M=1.80), additionally the GeoCBI has a better adjustment with the RBR of (R² = 0.73), than the RdNBR (R² = 0.72), and dNBR (R² = 0.71). Finally, the overall classification accuracy achieved with the MLE (Kappa = 0.65) has a better result than regression models (Kappa = 0.58) and higher accuracy of individual classes.

This paper studies the maximum reliability of multi-hop relay UAV, in which UAV provides wireless services for remote users without direct communication link on the ground as a coded cooperative relay. In this paper, the analytical expressions of total power loss and total bit error rate are derived as reliability measures. Firstly, based on the environmental statistical parameters, a LOS probability model is proposed. Then the problem of minimizing the bit error rate of static and mobile UAVs is studied. The goal is to minimize the total bit error rate by jointly optimizing the height, elevation, power and path loss, and subject to the maximum allowable path loss con-straints, transmission power allocation constraints and UAV height and elevation constraints. At the same time the total path loss is minimized to achieve maximum ground communication cov-erage. However, the formulated joint optimization problem is non-convex and generally difficult to solve. Therefore, we decomposed the problem into two subproblems and proposed an effective joint optimization iteration algorithm. Finally, the simulation results are given, and the analysis shows that the optimal height of different reliability measures is slightly different, and using the mobility of UAVs can improve the reliability of communication performance.

Modelling diameter distribution is an integral part of forest management. It requires the use of a suitable probability density function or cumulative distribution function with the appropriate fitting method. In this study, we compared the suitability of eight probability density functions fitted by derivative and optimization methods used for diameter distribution estimation of forest stands. The derivation and optimization were used on A Charlier, beta, generalized beta, gamma, Gumbel, Johnson’s SB, and Weibull (2 and 3-parameter). We used data from 167 permanent sample plots from Atlantic forest (Quercus robur) and 59 temporary sample plots from tropical forests (Tectona grandis). The quality of the fits was evaluated with different indices such as Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Cramer-von Mises, mean absolute error, bias and mean squared error. The results showed Johnson’s SB function was more suitable for describing the diameter distribution of the stands. Johnson’s SB, 3-parameter Weibull and generalized beta had consistent performance regardless of the fitting methods. The quality of fits produced by gamma, Gumbel and 2-parameter Weibull was poor.

Predicting the outcome of a future game between two National Basketball Association (NBA) teams poses a challenging problem of interest to statistical scientists as well as the general public. In this article, we formalize the problem of predicting the game results as a classification problem and apply the principle of maximum entropy to construct NBA maximum entropy (NBAME) model that fits to discrete statistics for NBA games, and then predict the outcomes of NBA playoffs by the NBAME model. The best NBAME model is able to correctly predict the winning team 74.4 percent of the time as compared to some other machine learning algorithms which is correct 69.3 percent of the time.

The hourly and daily rainfall data which is spatially distributed are required as an input for run-off rain model. Furthermore, the run-off rain model is used to detect early flooding. The daily and hourly rainfall data have characteristics that most of data are zero. Therefore we need a model which can capture the phenomenon. A time series model involving location, which is a model that can be developed to approach the daily and hourly rainfall data, we can call Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The VAR model allows us for modeling rainfall data in several areas. However, in certain conditions the VAR model often occurs over-parameterization and reduces degrees of freedom. The aim of this study is to compare the VAR model with Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) and Bayesian to hourly and daily rainfall data in SampeanWatershed of Bondowoso. The results showed that the hourly and daily rainfall data are fitted to VAR process of orde 5 and 1 respectively. Based on the AIC and SBC values indicate that the Bayesian is better than the MLE method. The Bayesian is able to predict parameters by producing a smaller variance covariance matrix than the MLE.

Daily maximum surface air temperature (Tamax) is a crucial factor for understanding complex land surface processes under rapid climate change. Remote detection of Tamax has widely relied on the empirical relationship between air temperature and land surface temperature (LST), a product derived from remote sensing. However, little is known about how such a relationship is affected by the high heterogeneity in landscapes and dynamics in seasonality. This study aims to advance our understanding of the roles of land cover and seasonal variation in the estimation of Tamax using the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) LST product. We developed statistical models to link Tamax and LST in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China for five major land-cover types (i.e., forest, shrub, water, impervious surface, cropland, and grassland) and two seasons (i.e., growing season and non-growing season). Results show that the performance of modeling the Tamax-LST relationship was highly dependent on land cover and seasonal variation. Estimating Tamax over grasslands and water bodies achieved superior performance; while uncertainties were high over forested lands that contained extensive heterogeneity in species types, plant structure, and topography. We further found that all the land-cover specific models developed for the plant non-growing season outperformed the corresponding models developed for the growing season. Discrepancies in model performance mainly occurred in the vegetated areas (forest, cropland, and shrub), suggesting an important role of plant phenology in defining the statistical relationship between Tamax and LST. For impervious surfaces, the challenge of capturing the high spatial heterogeneity in urban settings using the low-resolution MODIS data made Tamax estimation a difficult task, which was especially true in the growing season.

The paper presents a method to assess the effect of electrolyte additives on the energy capacity of Pb-acid batteries. The method applies to any chemically unreactive additive, including suspensions and gels. The approach is thermodynamically based and it leads to the definition of a region of admissible concentrations –the battery’s admissible range– where the battery can undergo an indefinite number of charge/discharge cycles without suffering permanent damage. An experimental procedure to determine this range is presented. The obtained results provide a way to assess the potential of electrolyte additives to improve the energy capacity of Pb-acid batteries. The same results also provide a means to determine the additive concentration that produces the maximum energy capacity increase of the battery. The paper closes with an example of application of the proposed approach to a practical case.

Accurate, detailed and recent Information about land cover/use is important and much more needed for different aspects of sustainable development and environmental management. As remote sensing datasets are becomes one of the most important and effective tools to generate such information, this study aimed to generating land cover map for sub area in Al-Ahasaa Oasis, Saudi Arabia, by using and classifying a subset of Landsat-ETM+ image of the selected study area, as bases and required input for future studies and researches. Different image preprocessing techniques in addition to a will-known and widely used classification method (i.e., Maximum Likelihood classifier) were applied. To be reliable with the final product, accuracy assessment was carried out with 89% agreement and accepted according to the applied method. Different land cover classes were found in the study area, which includes (Sand dunes, Water bodies, Sabakha, Bare soil, Urban, and Agricultural lands). The study also revealed that the dominant land cover class is sand dunes with approximately ± 70% in area. The study strongly indicated that the area has long been affected by sand movement. Finally, the study suggested that, further researches with more advanced methods rather than traditional methods are needed in the future to support the findings of this study, with high degree of accuracy.

This work continues the review and illustrative application to energy systems of the “Fourth-Order Best-Estimate Results with Reduced Uncertainties Predictive Modeling” (4th-BERRU-PM) methodology. The 4th-BERRU-PM methodology uses the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) principle to incorporate fourth-order experimental and computational information, in-cluding fourth (and higher) order sensitivities of computed model responses with respect to model parameters. The 4th-BERRU-PM methodology yields the fourth-order MaxEnt posterior distribution of experimentally measured and computed model responses and parameters, in the combined phase-space of model responses and parameters. The 4th-BERRU-PM methodology encompasses fourth-order sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ), which were reviewed in the accompanying work (Part 1), as well as fourth-order data assimilation (DA) and model calibration (MC) capabilities, which will be reviewed and illustrated in this work (Part 2). The applicability of the 4th-BERRU-PM methodology to energy systems is illustrated by using the Polyethylene-Reflected Plutonium (acronym: PERP) OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark, which is modeled using the linear neutron transport Boltzmann equation, involving 21976 im-precisely known parameters. This benchmark is representative of “large-scale computations” such as those involved in the modeling of energy systems. The result (“response”) of interest for the PERP benchmark is the leakage of neutrons through the outer surface of this spherical benchmark, which can be computed numerically and measured experimentally. The impact of the high-order sensitivities of the response with respect to the PERP model parameters is quantified for “high-precision” parameters (2% standard deviations) and “medium-precision” parameters (5% standard deviations). Analyzing the best-estimate results with reduced uncertainties for the 1st- through 4th-order moments (mean values, covariance, skewness, and kurtosis) produced by the 4th-BERRU-PM methodology for the PERP benchmark indicates that, even for systems mod-eled by linear equations (e.g., the PERP benchmark), retaining only first-order sensitivities is insufficient for reliable predictive modeling (including SA, UQ, DA, MC). At least second-order sensitivities should be retained in order to obtain reliable predictions.

A typhoon-induced storm surge is considered one of the most severe coastal disasters in Taiwan. However, the combination of the storm surge and the astronomical tide called the storm tide can actually cause extreme flooding in coastal areas. This study implemented a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to account for the interaction between tides and storm surges on the coast of Taiwan. The model was validated with observed water levels at Sauo Fish Port, Hualien Port, and Chenggong Fish Port under different historical typhoon events. The model results are in reasonable agreement with the measured data. The validated model was then used to evaluate the effects of the typhoon's intensity, bathymetric change, and the combination of the typhoon’s intensity and bathymetric change on the maximum storm tide and its distribution along the east coast of Taiwan. The results indicated that the maximum storm tide rises to 1.92 m under a typhoon with an intensity of a 100-year return period. The maximum storm tide increased from a baseline of 1.26 m to 2.63 m for a 90% bathymetric rise at Sauo Fish Port under the conditions of Typhoon Jangmi (2008). The combination of the intensity of a typhoon with a 100-year return period and a 90% bathymetric rise will result in a maximum storm tide exceeding 4 m, 2 m, and 3 m at Sauo Fish Port, Hualien Port, and Chenggong Fish Port, respectively. We also found that the distribution of the maximum storm tide on the east coast of Taiwan can expand significantly subject to the bathymetric rise.

Banks are normally offered two kinds of deposit accounts. It consists of deposits like current/saving account and term deposits like fixed or recurring deposits. For enhancing the maximized profit from bank as well as customer perspective, term deposit can accelerate uplifting of finance fields. This paper focuses on likelihood of term deposit subscription taken by the customers. Bank campaign efforts and customer detail analysis can influence term deposit subscription chances. An automated system is approached in this paper that works towards prediction of term deposit investment possibilities in advance. This paper proposes deep learning based hybrid model that stacks Convolutional layers and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) layers as predictive model. For RNN, Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) is employed. The proposed predictive model is later compared with other benchmark classifiers such as k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN), Decision tree classifier (DT), and Multi-layer perceptron classifier (MLP). Experimental study concludes that proposed model attains an accuracy of 89.59% and MSE of 0.1041 which outperform well other baseline models.

The effectiveness of combining strength-specific training with endurance training to enhance the performance of endurance runners remains uncertain. This study aimed to analyze effect of practising maximum-strength (MAX), explosive strength (EXP) or both combined (COMB) on seven runners’ performance-indicators: vertical jump (VJ), one-repetition-maximum-squat (1RM), peak-velocity/peak-running-speed (PV), lactate-threshold (over incremental-test-protocols, LT), middle-distance-time-trial (TT), maximum-oxygen-consumption (VO2max), running-economy (RE). Systematic-review (Scopus, Wed of Science, Sports Discuss, PubMed) with meta-analysis was conducted following PRISMA standards. Inclusion-criteria (PICOS) were: recreational or well-trained athletes aged 18-45 performing concurrent-training ≥five-week. Used search-terms were related to different types of strength/endurance, participants’ age, sport-modality. 20 manuscripts were selected, quality-assessed with PEDro. MAX training is more effective than EXP, COMB in improving VJ, 1RM, PV, while COMB is more effective than MAX, EXP to enhance TT. MAX is more effective than EXP in improving LT. Concurrent-workouts do not provide additional benefits to VO2max. It is unknown which strength-modality (MAX, EXP or COMB) is more effective in improving RE. Concurrent-training is more effective than single-mode-endurance-training for enhancing specific performance-variables in adult-endurance-runners. Middle-, long-distance-runners may consider incorporating MAX-training to target specific goals, e.g., improving VJ, 1RM, LT, PV while utilizing COMB-training to enhance TT. Certain variables may benefit from EXP. New randomized-controlled-trials are required to confirm these findings.

This work (in two parts) will review the recently developed predictive modeling methodology called “4th-BERRU-PM” and its applicability to energy systems as exemplified by an illustrative application to the Polyethylene-Reflected Plutonium (acronym: PERP) OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark. The acronym 4th-BERRU-PM designates the “Fourth-Order Best-Estimate Results with Reduced Uncertainties Predictive Modeling” methodology, which yields best-estimate results with reduced uncertainties for the first fourth-order moments (mean values, covariance, skewness, and kurtosis) of the optimally predicted posterior distribution of model results and calibrated model parameters. The 4th-BERRU-PM uses the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) principle to incorporate fourth-order experimental and computational information, including fourth (and higher) order sensitivities of computed model responses to model parameters, thus incorporating, as particular cases, the results previously predicted by the second-order predictive modeling methodology 2nd-BERRU-PM, and vastly generalizing the results produced by extant data assimilation and data adjustment procedures. The 4th-BERRU-PM methodology encompasses the scopes of high-order sensitivity analysis (SA), uncertainty quantification (UQ), data assimilation (DA) and model calibration (MC). The application of the 4th-BERRU-PM methodology to energy systems is illustrated by means of the above-mentioned OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark, which is modeled using the neutron transport Boltzmann equation involving 21976 imprecisely known parameters, the solution of which is representative of “large-scale computations.” The model result (“response”) of interest is the leakage of neutrons through the outer surface of this spherical benchmark, which can be computed numerically and measured experimentally. Part 1 of this work illustrates the impact of high-order sensitivities, in conjunction with parameter standard deviations of various magnitudes, on the determination of the expected value and variance of the computed response in terms of the first four moments of the distribution of the uncertain model parameters. Part 2 of this work will illustrate the capabilities of the 4th-BERRU-PM methodology for combining computational and experimental information, up to and including forth-order sensitivities and distributional moments, for producing best-estimate values for the predicted responses and model parameters while reducing their accompanying uncertainties.

In this paper a robust version of the Wald test statistic for composite likelihood is considered by using the composite minimum density power divergence estimator instead of the composite maximum likelihood estimator. This new family of test statistics will be called Wald-type test statistics. The problem of testing a simple and a composite null hypothesis is considered and the robustness is studied on the basis of a simulation study. Previously, the composite minimum density power divergence estimator is introduced and its asymptotic properties are studied.

Extending from the current Elaboration likelihood model scholarship, this article proposes a framework for applying ELM to cricket bat purchase. Professional cricketers or fans require comprehensive and adequate pieces of information about cricket bat through the Internet. Buyers simultaneously encourage internet reviews for product impressions, and they experience meaningful associations. ELM and the Internet exemplify the cricket bat buying process by engaging buyers with product specification and create a meaningful relationship between buyers and sellers. At the same time, buyers feel empowered to choose a product of their choice. Describing the Elaboration likelihood model, we have facilitated an approach for cricket bats buying. This article has explored how ELM through the Internet can encourage buyers to be informative about cricket bats while silencing retailers' voices and visions into a unique buyer-seller relationship.

The pollution of the bays in Abidjan is a major concern for the Ivorian policy makers. In fact, the pollution of the bays induce high costs to the society while impacting population health dramatically. As a result, pollution reduction management of production activities has been undertaken in the Cocody Bay area. To our knowledge, no study has yet proposed a model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these pollution management strategies. A cost-effectiveness model, based on Monte Carlo simulation, was developed to assess the economic and environmental impacts of various scenarios characterized by a set of production practices, both in the short term and in the long term. The authors discuss the steps and input parameters of the model presented. The proposed model may serve as the basis for identifying an optimal production scenario defined as the scenario with the best incremental cost-effectiveness ratio considering a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold. The WTP, to be estimated based on the gross domestic product of Côte d’Ivoire, represents the opportunity costs associated with selecting the optimal scenario. The current framework can also be applied to other settings facing similar challenge.

Hypersonic aircraft focuses more on the integration of aircraft and engine than ordinary aircraft owing to high performance requirements, and the nozzle design is reflected in the required large area ratio of nozzle inlet and outlet and the compactness of the overall size of the aircraft. In this study, the height constraint is directly introduced into the maximum thrust nozzle design method. A new method for designing nozzles under the height constraints that consults the maximum thrust theory is proposed. Initially, the condition that the nozzle reaches the maximum thrust under the height constraint is deduced mathematically. Then, a nozzle design method satisfying the height constraint is computed using the method of characteristics (MOC). Subsequently, the influence of the design parameters on the design method is studied parametrically. Results show that Mach number scale and asymmetrical factors can affect ramp length and flap length of the nozzle, respectively. These factors great influence the axial thrust performance and lift under a specific height constraint. Compared with the traditional truncation design method, the thrust coefficient and lift increased by 11.93% and 138.45% respectively.

Maximum entropy production principle (MEPP) has been formulated in the mid-twentieth century, and today it has acquired the status of an important principle of science, which is extremely effective in considering various non-equilibrium problems. In this study, for the first time, definition of life is based on an easily measurable physical quantity that is entropy production. Life and evolution are discussed from the point of view of MEPP and the Universe, but not a human

Rapid online surveys are an important tool in tracking the public’s knowledge and perceptions during infectious disease outbreaks. In June 2020, during the early phases of COVID-19 vaccines development, a survey had been conducted, aimed at assessing attitudes and opinions about vaccination of 885 Italian adults, in addition to their vaccine literacy levels (i.e. skills of finding, understanding and using information about vaccines). In January 2021, the same questionnaire has been administered to a similar population (n=160). Interactive vaccine literacy was significantly higher than in June 2020 (mean score 3.38 vs 3.27 respectively, P=.0021). The percentage of participants willing to be vaccinated against COVID-19 was assessed by the means of either-or questions, and was equally high in both surveys (>90%), which is quite reassuring, despite metrics based on categorical scales cannot identify hesitant subjects.

For enhancing the maximized profit from bank as well as customer perspective, term deposit can accelerate finance fields. This paper focuses on likelihood of term deposit subscription taken by the customers. Bank campaign efforts and customer details are influential while considering possibilities of taking term deposit subscription. An automated system is provided in this paper that approaches towards prediction of term deposit investment possibilities in advance. Neural network(NN) along with stratified 10-fold cross-validation methodology is proposed as predictive model which is later compared with other benchmark classifiers such as k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN), Decision tree classifier (DT), and Multi-layer perceptron classifier (MLP). Experimental study concluded that proposed model provides significant prediction results over other baseline models with an accuracy of 88.32% and Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.1168.

We introduce the lower chaos grade of a real-valued function F defined on the Markov triple (E,μ,Γ), where μ is a probability measure and Γ is the carré du champ operator. As an application of this concept, we obtain the better estimate of the four moments theorem for Markov diffusion generators worked by Bourguin et al (2019). For our purpose, we need to find the largest number except zero in the set of eigenvalues corresponding to its eigenfunction in the case where the square of a random variable F, coming from a Markov triple structure, can be expressed as a sum of eigenfunctions, We give some examples of eigenfunctions of the diffusion generators such as Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, Jacobi and Romanovski-Routh. In particular, two bounds, called the four moments theorem and fourth moment theorem respectively, will be provided for the normal approximation of the case where a random variable F comes from eigenfunctions of a Jacobi generator.

Estimating ground surface PM2.5 with fine spatiotemporal resolution is a critical technique for exposure assessments in epidemiological studies of its health risks. Previous studies have utilized monitoring, satellite remote sensing or air quality modeling data to evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of PM2.5 concentrations, but such studies rarely combined these data simultaneously. We develop a three-stage model to fuse PM2.5 monitoring data, satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) and community multi-scale air quality (CMAQ) simulations together and apply it to estimate daily PM2.5 at a spatial resolution of 0.1˚ over China. Performance of the three-stage model is evaluated using a cross-validation (CV) method step by step. CV results show that the finally fused estimator of PM2.5 is in good agreement with the observational data (RMSE = 23.00 μg/m^3 and R2 = 0.72) and outperforms either AOD-retrieved PM2.5 (R2 = 0.62) or CMAQ simulations (R2 = 0.51). According to step-specific CVs, in data fusion, AOD-retrieved PM2.5 plays a key role to reduce mean bias, whereas CMAQ provides all-spacetime-covered predictions, which avoids sampling bias caused by non-random incompleteness in satellite-derived AOD. Our fused products are more capable than either CMAQ simulations or AOD-based estimates in characterizing the polluting procedure during haze episodes and thus can support both chronic and acute exposure assessments of ambient PM2.5. Based on the products, averaged concentration of annual exposure to PM2.5 was 55.75 μg/m3, while averaged count of polluted days (PM2.5 > 75 μg/m3) was 81, across China during 2014. Fused estimates will be publicly available for future health-related studies.

The objective of this study is to examine a nonparametric estimate , using the kernel approach, of the conditional distribution function of a scalar response variable that is given a random variable whose values take place in a separable real Hilbert space. The observations will be dependent on one another in a quasi-associated fashion. The pointwise practically perfect consistencies with rates of this estimator are established by us under some broad conditions. The study’s major objective is to investigate the convergence rate of the proposed estimator and its application in the convergence rate and asymptotic normality of the hazard function. The asymptotic normality of the developed estimator is established precisely. Simulation studies were conducted to investigate the behavior of the asymptotic property in the context of finite sample data.

In recent years, there has been a rise in the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The diagnosis of ASD requires behavioral observation and standardized testing completed by highly trained experts. Early intervention for ASD can begin as early as 1-2 years of age, but ASD diagnoses are not typically made until ages 2-5 years, thus delaying the start of intervention. There is an urgent need for non-invasive biomarkers to detect ASD in infancy. While previous research using physiological recordings has focused on brain-based biomarkers of ASD, this study investigated the potential of electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings as an ASD biomarker in 3-6-month-old infants. We recorded heart activity of infants at typical and elevated familial likelihood for ASD during naturalistic interactions with objects and caregivers. After obtaining the ECG signals, features such as heart rate variability (HRV) and sympathetic and parasympathetic activities were extracted from them. Then we evaluated the effectiveness of multiple machine learning classifiers for the classification of ASD likelihood. Our findings support our hypothesis that infant ECG signals contain a significant amount of information about ASD familial likelihood. Among the various machine learning algorithms tested, XGBoost performed best according to sensitivity (0.76±0.12), f1-score (0.75±0.12), precision (0.79±0. 12), classification accuracy (0.77±0.12, p-value = 0.01) and AUC (0.76±0.12, p-value = 0.02). These results suggest that ECG signals contains relevant information about the likelihood of an infant to develop ASD. Future studies should consider the potential of information contained in ECG, and other indices of autonomic control, for the development of biomarkers of ASD in infancy.

Arborists commonly investigate the extent of stem decay to assess the likelihood of stem failure when conducting tree risk assessments. Studies have shown that (i) arborists can sometimes judge the extent of internal decay based on external signs; (ii) sophisticated tools can reliably illustrate the extent of internal decay; and (iii) assessing components of tree risk can be highly subjective. We recruited 18 experienced tree risk assessors who held the International Society of Arboriculture’s Tree Risk Assessment Qualification (TRAQ) to assess the likelihood of stem failure due to decay after each of 5 consecutive assessments on 30 individuals of 2 genera. Five assessment techniques, in stepwise order, were 1) visual, 2) sounding the trunk with a mallet, 3) viewing a scaled diagram of the cross-section that revealed sound and decayed wood ascertained from resistance drilling, 4) viewing sonic and electrical resistance tomograms, and 5) consulting with a peer. For each technique, assessors assigned two or more likelihood of failure ratings (LoFRs) for at least 83% of trees, which were proportionally greatest after assessors viewed tomograms; the proportions did not differ among the other four assessment techniques. Covariates that influenced the distribution of LoFRs included percent of the cross-section that was decayed, and assessors’ experience using resistance drilling devices and tomography in regular practice. Practitioners should be aware that disagreement on the likelihood of tree failure exists even among experienced arborists.

Li-ion battery packs are the heart of modern electric vehicles. Due to their perishable nature, it is crucial to supervise them closely. In addition to on-board supervision over safety and range, insights into the battery’s degradation are also becoming increasingly important, not only for the vehicle manufacturers but also for vehicle users. The concept of digital twins has already emerged on the field of automotive technology, and can also help to digitalize the vehicle’s battery. In this work, we set up a data pipeline and digital battery twin to track the battery state, including state of charge (SOC), state of health (Capacity) (SOHc ) and state of health (Resistance) (SOHr ). To achieve this goal, we reverse-engineer the diagnostics interface of a 2014 e-Golf to query for Unified Diagnostic Services (UDS) messages containing both battery pack and cell-individual data. An on-board diagnosis (OBD) logger records the data with edge-processing capability. Pushing this data into the cloud twin system using IoT-technology, we can fit battery models to the data and infer cell individual internal resistance from them. We find that the resistances of the cells differ by a magnitude of two. Furthermore, we propose an architecture for the battery twin in which the twin fleet shares resources like models by encapsulating them in Docker containers run on a cloud stack. By using web technology, we present the analyzed results on a web interface.

Ammonia is an atmospheric pollutant, predominantly emitted from agriculture, leading acidification and eutrophication of soil and water and contributing to secondary PM2.5. The implementation of accurate emission inventories with high spatial and time resolution plays a fundamental role in the development of air modelling simulation and in the impact assessment of actions for air quality improvement. The development and release of new algorithms and the increase of data availability are supporting the implementation of machine learning approaches in environmental and air quality data analysis. In this paper we present a methodology developed by the application of the Random Forest algorithm to bottom-up local emission inventories of ammonia to validate annual time series of ammonia emissions and calculate high resolution temporal profiles. The model has been trained and tested by the hourly measurements of ammonia concentrations and atmospheric turbulence parameters starting from a constant emission scenario. The initial values of emissions are calculated based on a bottom-up emission inventory detailed at the municipal basis and considering a circular area of about 4 km radius centered on measurement sites. By comparing predicted and measured concentrations, the emissions are modified, the model's training and testing are repeated, and the model converges to a very high performance in predicting ammonia concentrations and establishing an hourly time changing emission profile. The site-specific emissions profiles, estimated by the proposed methodology, clearly show a nonlinear relation with measured concentrations and allow to identify the effect of atmospheric turbulence on pollutant accumulation. The estimated time series well confirm the available data of the emission inventories and the monthly emission profiles have been compared with estimated data from satellite.

The Principle of Indifference (“PI”: the simplest non-informative prior in Bayesian probability) has been shown to lead to paradoxes since Bertrand (1889). Von Mises (1928) introduced the “Wine/Water Paradox” as a resonant example of a “Bertrand paradox”, and which has been presented as demonstrating that the PI must be rejected. We now resolve these paradoxes by a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) treatment of the PI that also includes information provided by Benford’s “Law of Anomalous Numbers” (1938). We show that the PI should be understood to represent a family of informationally-identical MaxEnt solutions; each solution being identified with its own explicitly justified boundary condition. In particular, our solution of the Wine/Water Paradox exploits Benford’s Law to construct a non-uniform distribution representing the universal constraint of scale invariance, which is a physical consequence of the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

The recent glaciation of the southern part of the Altai is estimated (1256 glaciers with the total area of 559.15±31.13 km2), the area of the glaciers of the whole Altai mountains is evaluated by 1096.55 km2. In the southern part of Altai 2276 glaciers with the total area of 1348.43±56.16 km2 were reconstructed, the first estimate of the LIA glacial area for the whole Altai mountain system is given (2288.04 km2). Since the LIA the glaciers decrease by 59% in the southern part of Altai and by 47.9% for the whole Altai. The ELA in the southern part of Altai increased averagely by 106 m. The higher changes of ELA in relatively humid areas is probably caused by decrease of precipitation. Glaciers of Tavan Bogd glacial center degraded with higher rates after 1968 relative to the interval between 1850-1968. One of the intervals of the fastest shrinkage of the glaciers in 2000-2010 was caused by unfavorable for the glaciers dry and warm interval 1989-2004. However, the fast decrease of the glaciers in 2000-2010 was mainly caused by the shrinkage or disappearance of the smaller glaciers, large valley glaciers started fast retreat after 2010.

This paper reviews the low-resilience problem in many cities, poor designs of cities to cope with disasters, and the need for tolerance of urban constructions. It explores answers concerning the question of how shall we build cities resiliently? The method of this applied research is a multiphase process that considers all physical and socioeconomic elements of a city. It introduces six indicator groups of urban management (M), economy (E), built environments (U), Infrastructures (I), natural environments (N), and health protection (H). The groups include 55 indicators as variables in the mathematical calculations in this paper. This paper builds a mathematical model to maximize the profitability of resilient buildings by optimizing investments in the required projects. The projects will upgrade the firmness and tolerance of cities against nature-based and human-made dangers and risks. There is a linear programming in 55 variables to select optimal solutions from fifty-five factorial alternatives. Then, the programming will develop into non-linear programming. The unique innovation of this paper is its linear programming interpretation by non-linear to give optimal solutions for the problem. Applying the Lagrange function in the Kuhn-Tucker conditions proves the accuracy of the hypothesis that post-COVID urbanization requires maximum resilience. Only in this way, the urban economies will be free of risks. Outcomes in this paper will assist in the pre-planning, design, and building of built environments everywhere resilient and sustainable.

In this paper we re-investigated the relationship between the symmetry of inertial systems and the Lorentz transformation. We found that when we just follow the following three principles: (1)we can define the time in the whole space with a prescribed clock synchronization, (2)the time-space is uniform and the space is isotropic and (3)all the inertial systems are equivalent, then we can totally construct a general coordinate transformation to meet the symmetry of inertial systems, and with a special assumption on the speed of light, we can construct a non-Lorentz transformation between inertial systems to make the particle’s energy have a limited value, which is similar to the rainbow model. Similar to the usual Lorentz violating models, the non-Lorentz transformation in this paper lead to a new modified disperse relation. We applied the obtained disperse relation to analyze the photon’s arrival time lag effect in astronomy and found that the "maximum energy" derived in our model is somewhat related to the "maximum energy" assumed in the rainbow model.

Trees in residential landscapes provide many benefits, but can injure persons and damage property when they fail. In hurricane-prone regions like Florida, USA, the regular occurrence of hurricanes has provided an opportunity to assess factors that influence the likelihood of wind-induced tree failure and develop species failure profiles. We assessed open-grown trees in Naples, Florida, following the passage of Hurricane Irma in September 2017 to determine the effect of relevant factors on the degree of damage sustained by individual trees. Of 4,034 assessed individuals (n = 15 species), 74% sustained no damage, 4% sustained only minor damage (i.e., minimal corrective pruning needed), 6% sustained significant damage (i.e., major corrective pruning needed), and 15% were whole tree failures (i.e., overturned trees or trees requiring removal). The proportion of individuals in each damage category varied among species, stem diameter at 1.4 m above ground, and the presence of utility lines, which was a proxy for maintenance. We compared our results with the findings of seven previous hurricanes in the region to explore species’ resilience in hurricanes.

The use of Attitude and Heading Reference Systems (AHRS) for orientation estimation is now common practice in a wide range of applications, e.g., robotics and human motion tracking, aerial vehicles and aerospace, gaming and virtual reality, indoor pedestrian navigation and maritime navigation. The integration of the high-rate measurements can provide very accurate estimates, but these can suffer from errors accumulation due to the sensors drift over longer time scales. To overcome this issue, inertial sensors are typically combined with additional sensors and techniques. As an example, camera-based solutions have drawn a large attention by the community, thanks to their low-costs and easy hardware setup; moreover, impressive results have been demonstrated in the context of Deep Learning. This work presents the preliminary results obtained by DOES , a supportive Deep Learning method specifically designed for maritime navigation, which aims at improving the roll and pitch estimations obtained by common AHRS. DOES recovers these estimations through the analysis of the frames acquired by a low-cost camera pointing the horizon at sea. The training has been performed on the novel ROPIS dataset, presented in the context of this work, acquired using the FrameWO application developed for the scope. Promising results encourage to test other network backbones and to further expand the dataset, improving the accuracy of the results and the range of applications of the method.

The aim of the study was to determine the maximum safe concentration of calcium and phosphate in neonatal parenteral nutrition (PN) solutions when various combinations of inorganic and organic salts are applied. Twelve PN solutions for neonatal use were aseptically prepared. Increasing concentration of inorganic and organic calcium and phosphate were added to the standard formulas. Each admixture was separately tested according to following conditions; after mixing, 37°C for 24 h, and maximum safe combination of calcium and phosphate were stored at 4°C for 30 days and followed by 24 h at 37°C. Visual inspections against a black and white contrast background, microscopic observation of undiluted PN solutions as well as the membrane filter after filtration of the PN solution, pH evaluation, and spectrophotometry at 600 nm were examined in triplicate. Safe maximum concentration of organic and inorganic calcium and phosphate was proposed individually for each composition of parenteral nutrition solutions. Surprisingly organic calcium with organic phosphate showed precipitation but over the therapeutic range. The protective effect of amino acid was observed and higher concentrations of calcium and phosphate were free of precipitation.

This paper provides a new management method (MM) to optimally operate standalone direct current (DC) photovoltaic water pumping system (PVWPS) and synchronize its hydraulic performance to variable daily irradiance. The proposed approach well considers the issues from PV generator and a positive displacement pump mismatching to deserve a hydraulic network. Accordingly, Management Method uses small pumps mounted in parallel scheme to displace the hydraulic power point (HPP) in order to satisfy the mal adequacy between supply and load. Based on experimental Study; this approach showed a yielded standalone system, possibility of running pumping system using only photovoltaic supply (Without use of capacitance), and possibility to design more economical PV systems as the maximum peak power demand for each month can be satisfied using small power pumps in parallel and adjusting their switch with accordance to varying daily irradiance. Moreover, an analytical model was developed with reference to the obtained experimental results. This model based on a daily occurring irradiance as inputs in order to predict optimal performance outputs. It can be considered as a decision tool to track power point resulting from optimal electrical and hydraulic performances of the pumping system according to changes of the daily irradiance.

The algorithm now known as Kadane’s algorithm for the maximum subarray problem uses many of the ideas that Kadane proposed, but it is not the algorithm that Kadane intended. This paper compares the two algorithms in question. They are both linear in time, employ just a few words of memory, and use a dynamic programming structure. The upshot is two light-weight algorithms for the maximum subarray problem.

The maximization of entropy S within a closed system is accepted as an inevitability (as the second law of thermodynamics) by statistical inference alone. The Maximum Entropy Production Principle (MEPP) states that not only S maximizes, but $\dot{S}$ as well: a system will dissipate as fast as possible. There is still no consensus on the general validity of this MEPP, even though it shows remarkable explanatory power (both qualitatively and quantitatively), and has been empirically demonstrated for many domains. In this theoretical paper I provide a generalization of entropy gradients, to show that the MEPP actually follows from the same statistical inference, as that of the 2nd law of thermodynamics. For this generalization I only use the concepts of super-statespaces and microstate-density. These concepts also allow for the abstraction of 'Self Organizing Criticality' to a bifurcating local difference in this density, and allow for a generalization of the fundamentally unresolved concepts of 'chaos' and 'order'.

Often, when solving forward, inverse or data assimilation problems, only a part of the solution is needed. As a model, we consider the stationary diffusion problem. We demonstrate an algorithm that can compute only a part or a functional of the solution, without calculating the full inversion operator and the complete solution. It is a well-known fact about partial differential equations that the solution at each discretisation point depends on the solutions at all other discretisation points. Therefore, it is impossible to compute the solution only at one point, without calculating the solution at all other points. The standard numerical methods like a conjugate gradient or Gauss elimination compute the whole solution and/or the complete inverse operator. We suggest a method which can compute the solution of the given partial differential equation 1) at a point; 2) at few points; 3) on an interface; or a functional of the solution, without computing the solution at all points. The required storage cost and computational resources will be lower as in the standard approach. With this new method, we can speed up, for instance, computation of the innovation in filtering or the likelihood distribution, which measures the data misfit (mismatch). Further, we can speed up the solution of the regression, Bayesian inversion, data assimilation, and Kalman filter update problems. Applying additionally the hierarchical matrix approximation, we reduce the cubic computational cost to almost linear $\mathcal{O}(k^2n \log^2 n)$, where $k\ll n$ and $n$ is the number of degrees of freedom. Up to the hierarchical matrix approximation error, the computed solution is exact. One of the disadvantages of this method is the need to modify the existing deterministic solver.

This article introduces an analytical framework that interprets individual measures of entropy-based mobility derived from mobile phone data. We explore and analyze two widely recognized entropy metrics: random entropy and uncorrelated Shannon entropy. These metrics are estimated through collective variables of human mobility, including movement trends and population density. By employing a collisional model, we establish statistical relationships between entropy measures and mobility variables. Furthermore, our research addresses three primary objectives: firstly, validating the model; secondly, exploring correlations between aggregated mobility and entropy measures in comparison to five economic indicators; and finally, demonstrating the utility of entropy measures. Specifically, we provide an effective population density estimate that offers a more realistic understanding of social interactions. This estimation takes into account both movement regularities and intensity, utilizing real-time data analysis conducted during the peak period of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) thunderclouds, produced from extreme bushfires, can initiate frequent cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning strikes containing extended continuing currents. This, in turn, can ignite new spotfires and inflict massive harm on the environment and infrastructures. This study presents a 3D numerical thundercloud model for estimating the lightning of different types and its striking zone for the conceptual tripole thundercloud structure which is theorized to elucidate the lightning phenomenon in pyroCb storms. More emphasis is given to the lower positive charge structure thundercloud to thoroughly examine various electrical parameters including the longitudinal electric field, electric potential, and surface charge density. The simulation outcomes on pyroCb thunderclouds with a tripole structure confirm the presence of negative longitudinal electric field initiation at the cloud’s lower region. This initiation is accompanied by enhancing the lower positive charge region, resulting in an overall positive electric potential increase. Consequently, negative surface charge density appears underneath the pyroCb thundercloud which has the potential to induce positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) lightning flashes. The suggested model would establish the basis for identifying the potential area impacted by lightning and could also be expanded to analyze the dangerous conditions that may arise in wind energy farms or power substations in times of severe pyroCb events.

Total Hip Arthroplasty is one of the most successful surgery. However, due to the worldwide growing population life expectancy and the related incidence of age-dependent bone diseases, a growing number of cases of intra-operative fractures lead to revision surgery with high rates of morbidity and mortality. Surgeons choose the type of the implant, either cemented or cementless prosthesis, on the basis of the age, the quality of the bone and the general medical conditions of the patients. Generally, no quantitative measures are available to assess the intra-operative fracture risk. Consequently, the decision-making process is mainly based on medical operators’ expertise and qualitative information obtained by imaging. Motivated by this scenario, we here propose a mechanical-supported strategy to assist surgeons in their decisions, by giving intelligible maps of the risk fracture which take into account the interplay between actual strength distribution inside the bone tissue and its response to the forces exerted by the implant. To this end, we produce charts and patient-specific synthetic “traffic-light” indicators of fracture risk, by making use of ad hoc analytical solutions to predict the stress levels in the bone by means of CT-based mechanical and geometrical parameters of the patient. We felt that, if implemented in a friendly software or proposed as an app, the strategy could constitute a practical tool to help the medical decision-making process, in particular with respect to the choice of adopting cemented or cementless implant

One of the most important parameters that characterize the traction-coupling properties of a wheeled tractor is its slip. The more tractor's gross traction, the higher its traction-coupling properties. But, this gross traction should not exceed its maximum possible value, which, in turn out, is to be determined by the maximum permissible slip. This article provides the equation to calculate this crucial parameter and establishes the dependencies between the tractor's slip and soil structure coefficient. It was shown that the value basically depends on such soil characteristics as the bulk deformation coefficient and the coefficient of rolling resistance. Calculations showed that for the average value of the soil bulk deformation coefficient at, the average value of rolling resistance coefficient at 0.16, the ratio value of the maximum permissible soil pressure to the tractor wheel rolling radius at the maximum permitted amount slip of the tractor wheels should not exceed 15%. With more slip, the soil structure deteriorates significantly. In this case, its structure coefficient may be less than critical, equal to 0.4.

Despite their obvious differences, biological systems at different scales tend to exhibit common organizational patterns. Unfortunately, these commonalities are usually obscured by the parcelled terminology employed by various scientific sub-disciplines. To explore these commonalities, this papers a comparative study of diverse applications of the maximum entropy principle, ranging from amino acids up to societies. By presenting these studies under a common language, this paper establishes a unified view over seemingly highly heterogeneous biological scenarios.

We consider the maximum entropy Markov chain inference approach to characterize the collective statistics of neuronal spike trains, focusing on the statistical properties of the inferred model. We review large deviations techniques useful in this context to describe properties of accuracy and convergence in terms of sampling size. We use these results to study the statistical fluctuation of correlations, distinguishability and irreversibility of maximum entropy Markov chains. We illustrate these applications using simple examples where the large deviation rate function is explicitly obtained for maximum entropy models of relevance in this field.

Experimental recordings of the collective activity of interacting spiking neurons exhibit random behavior and memory effects, thus the stochastic process modeling the spiking activity is expected to show some degree of time irreversibility. We use the thermodynamic formalism to build a framework, in the context of spike train statistics, to quantify the degree of irreversibility of any parametric maximum entropy measure under arbitrary constraints, and provide an explicit formula for the information entropy production of the inferred Markov maximum entropy process. We provide examples to illustrate our results and discuss the importance of time irreversibility for modeling the spike train statistics.

A convenient practical model for accurately estimating the total entropy (ΣSi) of atmospheric gases based on physical action is proposed. This realistic approach is fully consistent with statistical mechanics, but reinterprets its partition functions as measures of translational, rotational and vibrational action or quantum states, to estimate the entropy. With all kinds of molecular action expressed as logarithmic functions, the total heat required for warming a chemical system from 0o K (ΣSiT) to a given temperature and pressure can be computed, yielding results identical with published experimental third law values of entropy. All thermodynamic properties of gases including entropy, enthalpy, Gibbs energy and Helmholtz energy are directly estimated using simple algorithms based on simple molecular and physical properties, without resource to tables of standard values; both free energies are measures of quantum field states and of minimal statistical degeneracy, decreasing with temperature and declining density. We propose that this more realistic approach has heuristic value for thermodynamic computation of atmospheric profiles, based on steady state heat flows equilibrating with gravity. Potentially, this application of an action principle can provide better understanding of emergent properties of many natural or evolving complex systems, including modelling of predictions for global warming.

We present a numerical study in which large-scale bulk simulations of self-assembled DNA constructs have been carried out with a realistic coarse-grained model. The investigation aims at obtaining a precise, albeit numerically demanding, estimate of the free energy for such systems. We then, in turn, use these accurate results to validate a recently proposed theoretical approach that builds on a liquid-state theory, the Wertheim theory, to compute the phase diagram of all-DNA fluids. This hybrid theoretical/numerical approach, based on the lowest order virial expansion and a nearest-neighbor DNA model, can provide, in an undemanding way, a thermodynamic description of DNA associating fluids that is in semi-quantitative agreement with experiments. We show that the predictions of such scheme are as accurate as the ones obtained with more sophisticated methods. We also demonstrate the flexibility of the approach by incorporating non-trivial additional contributions that go beyond the nearest-neighbor model to compute the DNA hybridization free energy.

In the paper, a fully discrete compact difference scheme with $O(\tau^{2}+h^{4})$ precision is established by considering the numerical approximation of the one-dimensional Allen-Cahn equation. The numerical solutions satisfy discrete maximum principle under reasonable step ratio and time step constraint is proved. And the energy stability for the fully discrete scheme is investigated. An example is finally presented to show the effectiveness of scheme.

NMR spectroscopy, which is based on the phenomenon of nuclear magnetic resonance, has been widely popularized by its application in medical imaging under the name of MRI. In the organic laboratory, the 13C NMR spectrum of a newly synthetized compound remains an essential step in elucidating its structure. For the chemist, the interpretation of such a spectrum, which is a set of chemical shift values, is made easier if he has a tool capable of predicting with sufficient accuracy the carbon shift values from the structure he intends to prepare. As there are few open source methods for accurately estimating this property, we applied our graph machine approach to build models capable of predicting the chemical shifts of carbons. For this study, we have focused on benzene compounds building an optimized model derived from training a database of 10577 chemical shifts originating from 2026 structures which contain up to ten types of atoms other than carbon, namely H, O, N, S, P, Si and halogens. It provides a training root mean squared relative error (RMSRE) of 0.5 %, i.e. a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.6 ppm, and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.4 ppm for estimating the chemical shifts of the 10k carbons. The predictive capability of the graph machine model is also compared with that of three commercial software on a data set of 171 original benzenic structures (1012 chemical shifts). The graph machine model proves very efficient in predicting chemical shifts with an RMSE of 0.9 ppm, and compares favorably with the RMSEs of 3.4, 1.8 and 1.9 ppm computed with ChemDraw, ACD and MestReNova softwares respectively. Finally, a Docker-based tool is proposed to predict the carbon chemical shifts of benzenic compounds solely from their SMILES codes.

Cities are important sources of anthropogenic methane emissions. Municipal governments can play a role in reducing those emissions to support climate change mitigation, but they need information on the rate of emissions to context mitigation actions and track progress. Here, we examine the application of satellite data from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) to estimate city-level methane emissions rates in a case study of the City of Calgary, Alberta, Canada. While satellites are touted as a global methane monitoring system, we found limited observational coverage over Calgary that precluded the reliability of measurement-based models to track the annual emissions. In this work, we integrated valid observations over three years (2020-22) and used mass balance modeling to derive a long-term averaged emission estimate. The column-averaged dry-air mole fraction (XCH4) enhancement over Calgary was small, 4.7 ppb, but within the city boundary, we identified local hot spots in the vicinity of known sources (wastewater treatment facility and landfills). The city-scale emissions estimate from mass balance was 215.4 ± 132.8 t/d CH4. This estimate is approximately four- and six-times larger than estimates from Canada's gridded national inventory report of anthropogenic CH4 emissions and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v8.0), respectively. Valid observations are more common in warmer months and occur during a narrow daily overpass timeslot over Calgary – these effects may bias the emissions estimate. Overall, the findings from this case study highlight the challenge of deriving routine (sub-annual to annual) satellite-based estimates of city-scale methane emissions in similar geographic settings and suggest that more granular emissions inventories are needed to improve methane reporting.

Estimating precipitation is of critical importance to climate systems and decision-making processes. This paper presents Espresso, a deep learning model designed for estimating precipitation from satellite observations on a global scale. Conventional methods, like ground-based radars, are limited in terms of spatial coverage. Satellite observations, on the other hand, allow global coverage. Combined with deep learning methods these observations offer the opportunity to address the challenge of estimating precicpation on a global scale. This research paper presents the development of a deep learning model using geostationary satellite data as input and generating instantaneous rainfall rates, calibrated using data from the Global Precipitation Measurement Core Observatory (GPMCO). The performance impact of various input data configurations on Espresso was investigated. These configurations include a sequence of four images from geostationary satellites and the optimal selection of channels. Additional descriptive features were explored to enhance the model’s robustness for global aplications. When evaluated against the GPMCO test set, Espresso demonstrated highly accurate precipitation estimation, especially within equatorial regions. A comparison against six other operational products using multiple metrics indicated its competitive performance. The model’s superior storm localization and intensity estimation were further confirmed through visual comparisons in case studies. Espresso has been incorporated as an operational product at Météo-France, delivering high-quality, real-time global precipitation estimates every 30 minutes.

Dietary fiber has been associated with health benefits, therefore, the availability of validated tools to assess food consumption associated with high-fiber foods would allow the quantification of the intake of this functional nutrient, the identification of risk groups and target populations, and the development of public policies and/or programs aimed at improving the health of the population. In this study, a fiber intake short food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) was translated into Spanish and its content validity was determined by a group of experts, to subsequently conduct a pilot test including 198 subjects aged 36+12.5 years, residing in Chile (46 men and 150 women), with the purpose of quantifying dietary fiber intake. The global assessment of the FFQ revealed a validity coefficient of 0.98+0.02; after the application of the pilot, mean dietary fiber intake in adult Chilean residents was of 13 g per day, with similar results to those found in the National Food Consumption Survey 2010 (12.5 g per day in men, and 11.5 g in women). The FFQ is a quick and valid tool to classify people on the basis of their habitual dietary fiber intake.

Deep coal beds have been suggested as possible usable underground geological locations for carbon dioxide storage. Furthermore, injecting carbon dioxide into coal beds can improve the methane recovery. Due to importance of this issue, a novel investigation has been done on adsorption of carbon dioxide on various types of coal seam. This study has proposed four types of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) approaches with different kernel functions to estimate excess adsorption of carbon dioxide in terms of temperature, pressure and composition of coal seams. The comparison of GPR outputs and actual excess adsorption expresses that proposed models have interesting accuracy and also the Exponential GPR approach has better performance than other ones. For this structure, R2=1, MRE=0.01542, MSE=0, RMSE=0.00019 and STD=0.00014 have been determined. Additionally, the impacts of effective parameters on excess adsorption capacity have been studied for the first time in literature. According to these results, the present work has valuable and useful tools for petroleum and chemical engineers who dealing with enhancement of recovery and environment protection.

According to the current understanding, the recently observed accelerated expansion of the universe is caused by the dark or the vacuum energy. Attempts to calculate the magnitude of this energy using the standard model of particle physics led to values which are 59 – 120 orders of magnitude larger than the experimentally estimated one. Even though the expanding space has positive internal energy, in a flat universe it is completely balanced by the negative energy of gravitational field making the net energy equal to zero. However, the current physical theories may breakdown for times less than or on the order of Planck time and one cannot assume that the above assertion concerning the balance of two energies is valid also in this time scale. In this note it is assumed that this balance of the two energies during the creation of new space as the universe expands takes place only for times larger than the Planck time. If this assumption is correct, the net energy of the newly created space remains positive for times on the order of Planck time and the positive vacuum energy has to be burrowed from empty space before it is being balanced by gravity. This can happen only within the restrictions of the time-energy uncertainty principle. In this note it is shown that such considerations lead to a vacuum energy density of about 0.3 Nanojoules per cubic meter which has to be compared with the measured value of 0.6 Nanojoules per cubic meter.

Geodetic networks are essential for most geodetic, geodynamics and civil projects, such as monitoring the position and deformation of man-made structures, monitoring the crustal deformation of the Earth, establishing and maintaining a geospatial reference frame, mapping, civil engineering projects and so on. Before the installation of geodetic marks and gathering of survey data, geodetic networks need to be designed according to the pre-established quality criteria. In this study, we present a method for designing geodetic networks based on the concept of reliability. We highlight that the method discards the use of the observation vector of Gauss-Markov model. In fact, the only needs are the geometrical network configuration and the uncertainties of the observations. The aim of the proposed method is to find the optimum configuration of the geodetic control points so that the maximum influence of an outlier on the coordinates of the network is minimum. Here, the concept of Minimal Detectable Bias defines the size of the outlier and its propagation on the parameters is used to describe the external reliability. The proposed method is demonstrated by practical application of one simulated levelling network. We highlight that the method can be applied not only for geodetic network problems, but also in any branch of modern science.

The Maximum Entropy Theory of Ecology, or METE, is a theoretical framework of macroecology that makes a variety of realistic ecological predictions about how species richness, abundance of species, metabolic rate distributions, and spatial aggregation of species interrelate in a given region. In the METE framework, "ecological state variables" (representing total area, total species richness, total abundance, and total metabolic energy) describe macroecological properties of an ecosystem. METE incorporates these state variables into constraints on underlying probability distributions. The method of Lagrange multipliers and maximization of information entropy (MaxEnt) lead to predicted functional forms of distributions of interest. We demonstrate how information entropy is maximized for the general case of a distribution, which has empirical information that provides constraints on the overall predictions. We then show how METE’s two core functions are derived. These functions, called the "Spatial Structure Function" and the "Ecosystem Structure Function" are the core pieces of the theory, from which all the predictions of METE follow (including the Species Area Distribution, the Species Abundance Distribution, and various metabolic distributions). Primarily, we consider the discrete distributions predicted by METE.We also explore the parameter space defined by the METE’s state variables and Lagrange multipliers. We aim to provide a comprehensive resource for ecologists who want to understand the derivations and assumptions of basic mathematical structure of METE.

Confidence interval of is an interval corresponding to a specified confidence and including the true value. It can be used to describe the precision of a statistical quantity and quantify its uncertainty. Although the principle of maximum entropy (POME) has been used for a variety of applications in hydrology, the confidence intervals of the POME quantile estimators have not been available. In this study, the calculation formulas of asymptotic variances and confidence intervals of quantiles based on POME for Gamma, Pearson type 3 (P3) and Extreme value type 1 (EV1) distributions were derived. Monte Carlo Simulation experiments were performed to evaluate the performance of derived formulas for finite samples. Using four data sets for annual precipitation at the Weihe River basin in China, the derived formulas were applied for calculating the variances and confidence intervals of precipitation quantiles for different return periods and the results were compared with those of the methods of moments (MOM) and of maximum likelihood (ML) method. It is shown that POME yields the smallest standard errors and the narrowest confidence intervals of quantile estimators among the three methods, and can reduce the uncertainty of quantile estimators

Accurate estimation of livestock carrying capacity (LCC) and implementing an appropriate actual stocking rate (ASR) is key to sustainable management of grazing adapted alpine grassland ecosystems. Reliable determination of aboveground biomass is fundamental to these determinations. Peak aboveground biomass (AGBP) captured from satellite data at the peak of the growing season (POS) is widely used as a proxy for annual aboveground biomass (AGBA) to estimate LCC of grasslands. Here we demonstrate limitations of this approach and highlight the ability of POS in the estimation of ASR. We develop and trail new approaches that incorporate remote sensing phenology timings of grassland response to grazing activity, considering relations between biomass growth and consumption dynamics, in efforts to support more accurate and reliable estimation of LCC and ASR. Results show that based on averaged values from large-scale studies of alpine grassland on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), differences between AGBP and AGBA underestimate LCC by about 31%. Findings from a smaller-scale study that incorporate phenology timings into estimation of annual aboveground biomass reveal that Haibei alpine meadows were overgrazed by 11.5% during the study period from 2000-2005. The methods proposed can be extended to map grassland grazing pressure by predicting LCC and tracking ASR, thereby improving sustainable resource use in alpine grasslands.

The study focused on the technical and scale efficiency of smallholder pineapple farmers in the Central Region of Ghana. The input-oriented Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was used to estimate technical, pure and scale efficiencies of the smallholder pineapple farmers, of which a random sampling procedure was used to select 320 respondents. The study revealed that the farmers were technically inefficient with mean technical efficiency under Constant Returns to Scale (CRS), pure efficiency under Variable Returns to Scale (VRS) and the Scale Efficiency levels of 0.505, 0.641 and 0.772, respectively, due to farmers’ inability to exploit fully the available technology while experiencing evident post-harvest losses resulting from low adoption of post-harvest technologies. Such findings are meaningful and could help the farming communities and relevant policymakers to understand the issues in farming production and hence undertake necessary actions to potentially improve farmers’ technical and scale efficiencies in the study area.

Temporary streams are a key component of the hydrological cycle in arid and semi-arid regions, but their flow is highly variable and difficult to measure. In this paper, we present a novel approach that could be used to assess the flow of temporary streams and characterize their environmental status. Specifically, we apply the Image Velocimetry method to estimate surface velocity in temporary streams using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with optical sensors (IV-UAV method). The IV-UAV method enables the easy, safe and quick estimation of the velocity on the water’s surface. This method was applied in different temporary streams in Lesvos Island, Greece. The produced results show that the IV-UAV can be implemented at low discharges, at temporary streams and at small streams. However, there were many occasions that measurements were unable due to various reasons such as dense vegetation or archaeological sites. Despite of this, the proposed methodology could be incorporated in optical protocols which are used to assess the environmental status of temporary streams of Mediterranean conditions. Finally, this would become a valuable tool for understanding the dynamics of these eco-systems and monitoring changes over time.

Validation of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) products is typically based on comparisons with in-situ measurements at a few meters depth, that are mostly done at a single location and time. The difference in term of spatio-temporal resolution between the in-situ near-surface salinity and the two-dimensional satellite SSS results in a sampling mismatch uncertainty. The Climate Change Initiative (CCI) project has merged SSS from three satellite missions. Using an optimal interpolation, weekly and monthly SSS and their uncertainties are estimated at a 50 km spatial resolution over the global ocean. Over the 2016-2018 period the mean uncertainty on weekly CCI SSS is 0.13, whereas the standard deviation of weekly CCI minus in-situ Argo salinities is 0.24. Using high resolution SSS simulations, we estimate the expected uncertainty due to the CCI versus Argo sampling mismatch. Most of the largest spatial variability of the satellite minus Argo salinity are observed in regions with large mismatch. A quantitative validation is performed by considering the statistical distribution of the CCI minus Argo salinity normalized by the sampling and retrieval uncertainties. This quantity should follow a Gaussian distribution with a standard deviation of 1, if all uncertainty contributions are properly considered. We find that 1) the sampling mismatch can explain most of the observed differences between Argo and CCI data, especially for monthly products and in dynamical regions (river plumes, fronts), 2) overall, the uncertainties are well estimated in CCI version 3, much better compared to CCI version 2. There are a few dynamical regions where discrepancies remain, and where the satellite SSS, their associated uncertainties and the sampling mismatch estimates should be further validated.

Characterization of flying insects in-situ measurement using remote sensing spectroscopy is an emerging research field. Also, most analysis techniques in remote sensing spectroscopy are based on the use of an intensity threshold which introduces indeterminacies in the number of detected specimens. In this manuscript, we investigated the possibility of analysing passive remote sensing spectroscopy measurement data using the maximum noise fraction method. The results obtained show that this analysis technique can help to overcome the measurement of background noise in spectroscopic measurements.

Let BT4l denotes a subclass of bounded turning functions connected with a four-leaf-type domain. The goal of the study is to probe into coefficients of |b6|, |b7|, |b8|, the bounds of the logarithmic coefficients and the third-order determinants of H3,1, H3,2, H3,3 for functions in this class.

Knowledge of permafrost’s ice and unfrozen water content is critical for predicting the permafrost behavior during ice–water–ice transition. This is especially relevant when ice and permafrost are melting in many regions under the influence of global warming. It is well-known that only a part of the formation's pore water turns into ice at 0 ^oC. After the further lowering the temperature, the water phase transition continues, but at gradually decreasing rates. Thus, the porous space is filled with ice and unfrozen water. The laboratory data show that frozen formations' mechanical, thermal, and rheological properties strongly depend on the moisture content. Hence, porosity and temperature are essential parameters of permafrost. In this paper, it is shown how, and by combining research in three fields: (1) geophysical exploration, (2) numerical modeling, and (3) temperature logging, it is possible to estimate in-situ the porosity of permafrost. To demonstrate the procedure, five examples of numerical modeling (where all input parameters are specified) are given. This investigation is the first attempt to analyze the permafrost’s porosity in situ quantitively.

Vitamin K is a multifunctional micronutrient essential for human health, and deficiency has been linked to multiple pathological conditions. In this study we aimed to develop and validate a new food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) to estimate total vitamin K intake, over the course of a 30-day interval, in a Portuguese, Mediterranean-based, population. We conducted a prospective study in a non-random sample of 38 healthy adult volunteers. The FFQ was designed based on a validated Portuguese FFQ used in nationally representative studies and on literature reviews, to include foods containing ≥ 5μg of vitamin K/100g and foods with a lower vitamin K content, yet commonly in-cluded in a Mediterranean diet. Vitamin K intake was estimated from 24h recalls and six days of food records. The final FFQ included 54 food items which, according to regression analyses, explains 90% of vitamin K intake. Mean differences in vitamin K intake based on food records (80±47.7 μg/day) and on FFQ (96.5±64.3 μg/day) were statistically non-significant. Further, we found a strong correlation between both methods (r= 0.7; p=0.003). Our results suggest that our new FFQ is a valid instrument to assess the last 30-days of vitamin K intake in the Portuguese Mediterranean population.

Bohrnstedt’s (1969) attempt to derive a formula to compute the partial correlation coefficient and simultaneously correct for attenuation sought to simplify the process of performing each task separately. He suggested that his formula, developed from algebraic and psychometric manipulations of the partial correlation coefficient, produces a corrected partial correlation value. However, an algebraic error exists within his derivations. Consequently, the formula proposed by Bohrnstedt does not appropriately represent the value he intended it to estimate. By correcting the erroneous step and continuing the derivation based upon his proposed procedure, the steps outlined in this paper ultimately produce the formula that Bohrnstedt desired.

The kinetic energy transfer between the atmosphere and oceans, called wind work, affects ocean dynamics including near-inertial oscillations and internal gravity waves, mesoscale eddies, and large-scale zonal jets. For the most part, recent numerical estimates of global wind work amplitude are almost 5 times larger than those reported 10 years ago. This large increase is explained by the impact of the broad range of spatial and temporal scales covered by winds and currents, the smallest of which have only recently been uncovered by increasingly high resolution modeling efforts. However, existing satellite observations do not fully sample this broad range of scales. The present study assesses the capabilities of ODYSEA, a conceptual satellite mission to estimate the amplitude of wind work in the global ocean. To this end, we use an ODYSEA measurement simulator fed by the outputs of a km-scale coupled ocean-atmosphere model to estimate wind work globally. Results indicate that compared with numerical truth estimates, the ODYSEA instrument performs well globally, except for latitudes north of 40∘N during summer due to unresolved storm evolution. This performance is explained by the wide-swath properties of ODYSEA (a 1,700 km wide swath with 5 km posting for winds and surface currents), its twice-a-day (daily) coverage at mid-latitudes (low latitudes), and the insensitivity of the wind work to uncorrelated errors in estimated wind and current.

The color and NIR spectrum are key to build an oil estimation model, thus it requires individual olives clustering before the Sohlext oil extraction method can be applied. The objective was to analyze an OC estimation model of individual olives, based on cluster of similar color and NIR spectrum in different combination of the first and/or the second season. This study was performed with Chilean Arbequina olives in 2016 and 2017. The descriptor of the cluster consisted of the 3 color channels of c1, c2, c3 color model plus 11 reflectance points between 1710 and 1735 nm of each olive, normalized with the Z-score index. Clusters of similar color and NIR spectrum were formed with the k-means++ algorithm, leaving a sufficient amount of olives to be able to perform the Sohlext analysis of OC, as reference value. The estimation models were based on the Support Vector Machine. The test was carried out with the Leave One-Out Cross Validation in different training-testing combinations. The best model predicted the OC with 6% and 13%deviation respect to the real value in one season by itself and when one season tested with another season, respectively. The use of clustering in estimation model is discussed.

Large amounts of gas hydrate are present in marine sediments offshore Taitao Peninsula, near the Chile Triple Junction. Here, marine sediments on the forearc contain carbon that is converted to methane in a zone of very high heat flow and intense rock deformation above the downgoing oceanic spreading ridge separating the Nazca and Antarctic plates. This regime enables vigorous fluid migration. Here we present an analysis of the spatial distribution, concentration, estimate of gas phases (gas hydrate and free gas) and geothermal gradients in the accretionary prism and forearc sediments offshore Taitao (45.5° - 47° S). Velocity analysis of Seismic Profile RC2901-751 indicates gas hydrate concentration values <10% of the total rock volume, and extremely high geothermal gradients (<190 °Ckm^-1). Gas hydrates are located in shallow sediments (90-280 meters below the seafloor). The large amount of hydrate and free gas estimated (7.21x10¹¹ m³ and 4.1x10¹⁰ m³, respectively), the high seismicity, the mechanically unstable nature of the sediments, and the anomalous geothermal conditions, set the stage for potential massive releases of methane to the ocean mainly through hydrate dissociation and/or migration directly to the seabed through faults. We conclude that the Chile Triple Junction is an important methane seepage area and should be the focus of novel geological and ecological research.

Models with age as a variable but actual dynamics invariant under age structure allow use of MaxEnt to predict uniform age structure. Interpretations include a major role for accepting randomness as a causal principle in ecology (in the face of ignorance, in a further interpretative stance).

We study the performance of an endoreversible magnetic Otto cycle with a working substance composed of a single quantum dot described using the well-known Fock-Darwin model. We find that tuning the intensity of the parabolic trap (geometrical confinement) impacts the proposed cycle’s performance, quantified by the power, work, efficiency, and parameter region where the cycle operates as an engine. We demonstrate that a parameter region exists where the efficiency at maximum output power exceeds the Curzon-Ahlborn efficiency, the efficiency at maximum power achieved by a classical working substance.

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key variable in surface-atmosphere energy and water exchanges. The main goals of this study are to (i) evaluate the LST of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalyses over Iberian Peninsula using the Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) product and to (ii) understand the main drivers of the LST errors in the reanalysis. Simulations with the ECMWF land-surface model in offline mode (uncoupled) were carried out over the Iberian Peninsula and compared with the reanalysis data. Several sensitivity simulations were performed in a confined domain centered in Southern Portugal to investigate potential sources of the LST errors. The Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) fraction of green vegetation cover (FCover) and the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI) Land Cover dataset were explored. We found a general underestimation of daytime LST and slightly overestimation at night-time. The results indicate that there is still room for improvement in the simulation of LST in ECMWF products. Still, ERA5 presents an overall higher quality product in relation to ERA-Interim. Our analysis suggested a relation between the large daytime cold bias and vegetation cover differences between (ERA5 and CGLS FCocver) with a correlation of -0.45. The replacement of the low and high vegetation cover by those of ESA-CCI provided an overall reduction of the large Tmax biases during summer. The increased vertical resolution of the soil at the surface, has a positive impact, but much smaller when compared with the vegetation changes. The sensitivity of the vegetation density parameter, that currently depends on the vegetation type, provided further proof for a needed revision of the vegetation in the model, as there is a reasonable correlation between this parameter and the Tmax mean errors when using the ESA-CCI vegetation cover (while the same correlation cannot be reproduced with the original model vegetation). Our results support the hypothesis that vegetation cover is one of the main drivers of the LST summertime cold bias in ERA5 over Iberian Peninsula.

Temperature-index modeling is used to determine the magnitude of temperature depression in the northern Sawatch Range required to maintain steady-state mass balances of six reconstructed glaciers at their extent during the local Last Glacial Maximum (LLGM), dated at ~21 ka. Assuming no significant differences in precipitation compared to modern values, mean annual temperatures in the region were on average 8.8 +0.5/–0.8 °C cooler than they are today. Allowing for modest increases or decreases in precipitation, required temperature depressions only differ by ± 0.2 °C. Temperature depression in the northern Sawatch Range are consistent, although slightly greater, with those determined in other ranges in Colorado using similar approaches. The estimates presented here are, however, substantially less than those suggested by several downscaled simulations of global LGM climate, that might be due to the need for improved calibration of such downscalings, or the models from which they are derived. Our estimates of LGM temperature depression are considerably greater than that previously determined in the study area and those in two other ranges in Colorado derived using different methodologies, the latter being most likely responsible for the discrepancies.

Although most biological processes are characterized by a strong temporal asymmetry, several popular mathematical models neglect this issue. Maximum entropy methods provide a principled way of addressing time irreversibility, which leverages powerful results and ideas from the3literature of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. This article provides a comprehensive overview of these issues, with a focus in the case of spike train statistics. We provide a detailed account of the5mathematical foundations and work out examples to illustrate the key concepts and results from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics

This study estimates rainfall interception losses from natural wetland ecosystems based on maximum canopy storage measurements. Rainfall interception losses play an important role in water balance, which is crucial in wetlands, and has not yet been thoroughly studied in relation to this type of ecosystem. Maximum canopy storage was measured using the weight method. Based on these measurements, daily values of interception losses were estimated and then used to calculate long term interception losses based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data for the 1971–2015 period. Depending mainly on the number of days with precipitation, the results show that total interception losses for the growing season as well as monthly interception losses are around 13% of gross rainfall. This value is similar to the values observed for some forests. Hence, interception losses should not be disregarded in hydrologic models of wetlands, especially because data trends in meteorological conditions (mainly number of days with precipitation) show that interception losses will increase in the future if those trends stay the same.

Windthrow (i.e., trees broken and uprooted by wind) is a major natural disturbance in the Amazon. Images from medium-resolution optical satellites (mostly Landsat) combined with extensive field data have allowed researchers to assess patterns of tree mortality and monitor forest recovery over decades of subsequent succession in different regions. Although satellites with high spatial-resolution have become available for the Amazon in the last decade, they have not yet been employed for the mapping and quantification of windthrow tree-mortality. Here, we address how increasing the spatial resolution of satellites affects plot-to-landscape estimates of windthrow tree-mortality. We combined forest inventory data with Landsat 8 (30 m pixel), Sentinel 2 (10 m), and WorldView 2 (2 m) imagery over an old-growth forest in the Central Amazon that was disturbed by a single windthrow event in November/2015. Remote sensing estimates of tree mortality were produced with Spectral Mixture Analysis and analyzed together with forest inventory data using Generalized Linear Models. Windthrow tree-mortality measured in 3 transects (30 subplots) crossing the entire disturbance gradient was 26.9 ± 11.1% (mean ± 95% CI). Based on this ground truth, the three satellites produced reliable and statistically similar estimates (from 26.5% to 30.3% windthrow tree-mortality, p&lt;0.001). The mean-associated uncertainties decreased systematically with increasing spatial resolution (i.e., from Landsat 8 to Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2). However, the overall quality of fit of models showed the opposite pattern, which may reflect the influence of crown damage not accounted for in our field study, and fast-growing regeneration of leaf area. Among the satellites studied, Landsat 8 most accurately captured field observations of variations in tree mortality across the disturbance gradient (i.e., lower under- and/or overestimation from undisturbed to extremely damaged forest). Although satellites with high spatial-resolution can refine estimates of windthrow severity by allowing the quantification of individual tree damage and mortality, our results validate the reliability of Landsat imagery for assessing patterns of windthrow tree-mortality in dense and heterogeneous tropical forests. Although high-resolution imagery may improve estimates of tree damage and mortality, these should be validated using field data at compatible scales.

The use of allometric tools allows estimating the biomass of a plant species with greater precision. Tree roots are the least studied part of the vegetation due to the difficulty in obtaining complete root systems. For this reason, the objective was to generate an allometric model to estimate the amount of biomass accumulated in the root system of Abies religiosa trees in El Chico National Park, Hidalgo. For this purpose, 61 trees of A. religiosa were extracted from 0.06 to 3.56 m in height, using a backpack sprayer of pressurized water that detached the soil from the root. The response variable was root fresh weight and the independent variables were height, diameter and age+1, according to the fit of the models tested. Diameter was the variable with the best fit (r2 = 0.95 ± 0.04), obtaining the following equation PFR = (20.918 + D (2.4475)). The allometric model accurately estimates the below-ground biomass contained in the roots, which will allow us to obtain the complete biomass of an A. religiosa forest by having access to data on both the aerial and root components.

The European pear is a climacteric fruit species characterized by high storability. 'Conference', a pear cultivar very popular on the market, can be stored in a CA room without major losses for half a year. However, for ‘Conference’ storage to be successful, the fruit must be harvested fully developed even before it enters the climatic maturation phase. Harvested too early or too late, pears will taste bad, have physiological disorders and will be poorly storable. Among the various methods used to determine the optimal harvest date, the degree-days method, which relies of the sum of active temperatures, seems to be relatively accurate and easy to apply. During 11 years of study, ‘Conference’ pears were harvested on 4 dates (every 4-5 days) chosen based on measurements and observations, and then, after a six-month storage period, the optimum harvest date was determined. During the growing season, temperature was measured using an automatic weather station to calculate the sum of active temperatures from full bloom to the optimal harvest date. Measurements made after storage were analysed and the sum of active temperatures needed for the proper development of ‘Conference’ pear was calculated to be 2469 degree days. The calculations are very accurate because the dispersion calculated using the standard deviation was only 20 °. The base temperature with the smallest error was 0 °. On the basis of the study results, this method can be recommended as useful for determining the optimal harvest date.

Inorganic nanoparticles are utilized for therapeutic, diagnostic, or in combination, theranostic purposes. The latter involves simultaneous sensing, imaging, or tracking of drug delivery. Furthermore, these nanoparticles can differ in their morphologies, which affect outcomes such as the effectiveness of hyperthermia, induction, drug loading, circulation time by escaping the body's immune system, imaging modality clarity, and biosensing. However, design of these theranostics is limited by the lack of a method to predict their therapeutic efficacy. Herein, we report a simple and novel computational approach via algebraic and geometric calculations of surface area (SA) to volume (V) ratios (SA:V) which can help predict the efficacy of the inorganic nanoparticles of the investigated morphologies. The approach comprises a coding platform for the program and uses Python 3 on a Windows 10 operating system. Analyses of 29 polyhedral morphologies that inorganic nanoparticles could assume ex silico showed that only particular concave and convex morphologies in this size regime are more productive over the standard sizes as well as a few noted in literature for baseline comparison. Our results provide a method that can aid in predicting the efficacy of inorganic nanoparticles with certain morphology giving rise to their fundamental basis and eventual implementation ex silico.

Accurate prediction of mercury content emitted from fossil-fueled power stations is of utmost important to environmental pollution assessment and hazard mitigation. In this paper, mercury content in the output gas from boilers was predicted using an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) integrated with particle swarm optimization (PSO). Input parameters were selected from coal characteristics and the operational configuration of boilers. The proposed ANFIS-PSO model is capable of developing a nonlinear model to represent the dependency of flue gas mercury content into the specifications of coal and also the boiler type. In this study, operational information from 82 power plants has been gathered and employed to educate and examine the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model the statistical meter of MARE% was implemented, which resulted 0.003266 and 0.013272 for training and testing respectively. Furthermore, relative errors between acquired data and predicted values were between -0.25% and 0.1%, which confirm the accuracy of PSO-ANFIS model.

Accurate estimations of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) are fundamental for various environmental issues. Artificial Intelligence-based models are considered a promising alternative to the most common direct ETa estimation techniques and indirect methods by remote sensing (RS)-based surface energy balance models. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are proven to be suitable for predicting reference evapotranspiration and ETa based on RS data. The aim of this study is to develop a methodology based on ANNs for estimating daily ETa values using NDVI and land surface temperature, coupled with limited site-specific climatic variables at a large irrigation catchment. Two scenarios were implemented by the ANN model. Data from only the 38 days of satellite overpass dates was selected in Scenario-I, while the 769-day data included the satellite overpass dates and other days located between two satellite overpass acquisitions in Scenario-II. An irrigation scheme in the Mediterranean region of Turkiye was selected, and a total of 38 Landsat images, and local climatic data were used in 2021 and 2022. Results showed that R2 values in Scenario-I and II were acknowledgeably high for training (0.79 and 0.86), testing (0.75 and 0.81), and the entire dataset (0.76 and 0.84), respectively. Results of the new model in two scenarios showed acceptable agreement with ETa-METRIC values. The proposed ANN model demonstrated the potential of obtaining daily ETa using limited climatic data and RS imagery.

The performance of Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (V06B-IMERG) is evaluated at subdaily and daily scale using 10 years of heavy precipitation over a region in the Western Med-iterranean for different temporal aggregations with a dense network of rain gauges. On a half-hourly scale, the contribution of passive microwave (PMW) and infrared (IR) sources in the satellite estimates was considered, as well as the relation of various microphysical properties of cloud tops using Cloud Microphysics (CMIC- NWC SAF) data. IMERG shows a marked tendency to underestimate precipitation compared to rain gauges as the rainfall intensity threshold and temporal resolution increases. Results indicate that the negative bias is weaker when retrievals are due to PMW data. On the other hand, the benefits of filling the PMW gaps of IMERG by including IR information come at the expense of increasing the bias. IMERG performs dramatically better in the presence of precipitating ice clouds compared to warm and mixed phase clouds, which seems to be related with microphysical properties such as cloud optical thickness and cloud top effective radius. This work contributes to the understanding of the factors affecting satellite estimates of extreme precipitation and their relationship with the microphysical characteristics of clouds, which generates added value for further downstream applications and users’ decision making.

Longevity risk constitutes an important risk factor for life insurance companies and it can be managed through longevity-linked securities. The market of longevity-linked securities is at present far from being complete and does not allow to find a unique pricing measure. We propose a method to estimate the maximum market price of longevity risk depending on the risk margin implicit within the calculation of the technical provisions as defined by Solvency II. The maximum price of longevity risk is determined for a survivor forward (S-forward), an agreement between two counterparties to exchange at maturity a fixed survival-dependent payment for a payment depending on the realized survival of a given cohort of individuals. The maximum prices determined for the S-forwards can be used to price other longevity-linked securities, such as q-forwards. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd model is used to represent the evolution of mortality over time, that combined with the information on the risk margin, enables us to calculate upper limits for the risk-adjusted survival probabilities, the market price of longevity risk and the S-forward prices. Numerical results can be extended for the pricing of other longevity-linked securities.

This paper deals with the analysis of the temperatures in a group of 36 African countries. By looking at the maximum, minimum and the range (the difference between the maximum and the minimum) and using a long memory model based on fractional integration and cointegration, we first show that all series display a long memory pattern, with a significant positive time trend in 29 countries for the maximum temperatures and in 33 for the minimum ones. Looking at the range, the estimated value for the order of integration is smaller than the one based on maximum or minimum temperatures in 17 countries. Performing fractional cointegration tests between the maximum and minimum temperatures, our results indicate that the two series cointegrate in the classical sense (i.e., with a short memory equilibrium relationship) in a group of 11 countries, and there is another group of eight countries displaying cointegration in a fractional sense. The remaining 17 countries with no evidence of cointegration are therefore at the very high risk of climate change due to the absence of long-term comovement in their maximum and minimum temperatures. Findings in this paper are of tremendous interpretations and relevance for the analysis and climate projections in Africa.

The emergence of electric vehicles has brought new issues such as the problem of rolling element bearings (REBs) operating at high speeds. Losses due to these components in mechanical transmissions are a key issue and must therefore be taken into account right from the design stage of these systems. Among these losses, the one induced by the motion of rolling elements , known as drag loss, becomes predominant in high-speed REBs. Although an experimental approach is still possible, it is difficult to isolate this loss in order to study it properly. A numerical approach based on CFD is therefore a possible way forward, even if other issues arise. The aim of this article is to study the ability of such an approach to correctly estimate the drag coefficient associated with the motion of rolling elements. The influence of the numerical domain extension, the mesh refinement, the simplification of the ring shape and the presence of the cage, on the values of the drag coefficient is presented. While it seems possible to compromise on the calculation domain and mesh size, it appears that the other parameters must be taken into account as much as possible to obtain realistic results.

In this study, 737 individual sheep milk samples were collected to evaluate the relationships between Brix refractometer measurements and milk constituents—particularly, protein and fat percentages—with the aim of verifying the ability of the refractometer to predict milk constituents. The Pearson's simple (rSP) and partial (rPP) correlations between milk constituents were calculated, and several first- and second-order regressions were tested to predict the protein and fat percentages. The results of the forecasts can be considered satisfactory only for the simple regression that predicted the percentage of milk protein through the measurements read with the Brix refractometer (PRT = -2.996 + 0.639*Brix), while the regression that predicted the percentage of fat + milk protein presented a weak forecasting capacity, which was probably due to the absence of partial correlations between the Brix refractometer measurements and the fat percentage.

Subglottal Impedance-Based Inverse Filtering (IBIF) allows for the continuous, non-invasive estimation of glottal airflow from a surface accelerometer placed over the anterior neck skin below the larynx, which has been shown to be advantageous for the ambulatory monitoring of vocal function. However, during long-term ambulatory recordings over several days, conditions may drift from the laboratory environment where the IBIF parameters were initially estimated due to sensor positioning, skin attachment, and temperature, among other factors. Observation uncertainties and model mismatch may result in significant deviations in the glottal airflow estimates, but are very difficult to quantify in ambulatory conditions due to a lack of a reference signal. To address this issue, we propose a Kalman filter implementation of the IBIF filter, which allows for both estimating the model uncertainty and adapting the airflow estimates to correct for signal deviations. One-way ANOVA results from laboratory experiments using the Rainbow Passage indicate a an improvement on amplitude-based measures for PVH subjects compared to IBIF which shows a statistically difference with respect to the reference oral airflow (p=0.02,F=4.1). MFDR from PVH subjects is slightly different to the oral airflow when compared to IBIF (p=0.04, F=3.3). Other measures did not have significant differences with either Kalman or IBIF, with the exception of H1H2, whose performance deteriorates for both methods. Overall, both methods show similar flottal airflow measures, with the advantage of Kalman by improving amplitude estimation. Moreover, Kalman filter deviations from the IBIF output airflow might suggest a better representation of some fine details in the ground-truth glottal airflow signal. Other applications may take more advantage from the adaptation offered by the Kalman filter implementation.

In this work, we treat a prediction problem via the conditional hazard function of a scalar response variable Y given a functional random variable X by using the local linear technique. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the asymptotic normality of the nonparametric estimator of the conditional hazard function, under some general conditions. A simulation study, conducted to assess finite sample behavior, demonstrates the superiority of our method than the standard kernel method

Legacy mining industry has left a large number of tailings ponds exposed to water and wind erosion that causes serious environmental and health problems. Prior to rehabilitation actions a deep sampling of the materials infilling the pond used to be necessary. Thus, the primary objective of this study is to demonstrate the usefulness of the Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) method as a non-invasive tool to determine the physicochemical composition of mine tailings ponds, enabling more efficient and low-cost surveys. To achieve this objective, three ERT profiles and three boreholes in each profile were carried out, from each borehole three waste samples from differents depths were collected and a geochemical characterization of the samples was carried. In order to estimate the composition of the infilling wastes in tailing ponds from electrical resistivity measures, several regression models were calculated for different physicochemical properties and metal concentrations. As a result, a high resistivity area was depicted in profiles G2 and G3 while a non-resistive area (profile G1) was also found. Relationships among low resistivity values and high salinity, clay content and high metal concentrations and mobility were established. Specifically, calibrated models were obtained for electrical conductivity, particles sizes of 0.02-50 µm and 50-2000 µm, total Zn and Cd concentration, and bioavailable Ni, Cd and Fe. Therefore, the ERT technique could be considered as a useful tool for mine tailings ponds characterization, and it can be used to estmate some physicochemical properties and metal concentrations of this mine waste.

In our recent publications, based on strong and electroweak interactions, we have developed a completely new formula for estimating nuclear binding energy. With reference to currently believed Semi Empirical Mass Formula (SEMF), we call our formula as ‘Strong and Electroweak Mass Formula’ (SEWMF). Our formula constitutes 4 simple terms and only one energy coefficient of magnitude 10.1 MeV. First term is a volume term, second term seems to be a representation of free nucleons associated with electroweak interaction, third term is a radial term and fourth one is an asymmetry term about the mean stable mass number. In this paper, we make an attempt to understand and estimate the maximum binding energy associated with any mass number. It can be expressed as, for A > 4, $\left(BE\right)_A\cong \left[A-0.000935A^2-A^{1/3}-A^{-1/2}\right]$ MeV. We are working on refining the 4^th term with even-odd corrections, shell corrections and other microscopic corrections. Proceeding further, stable mass numbers and super heavy mass numbers can be understood with a relation of the form, $\left[\textrm{RoundOff}\left(\left(Z+2.9464\right)^{1.2}-1.7165\right)\right]\pm\left[0,1\right]\pm\left(2n\right)$ where $n \cong 0,1,2$. It needs a review with respect to even-odd proton numbers and other microscopic corrections.

The primary purpose of this article is to deduce specific order estimates for the \textit{Mertens Function} $M(n)$, which facilitates us to analyze the location of zeros of the \textit{Riemann Zeta function} $\zeta(s)$. The paper also provides a brief overview about the notion of the \textit{Mertens Function} $M(n)$ and \textit{Redheffer Matrices} $\mathbb{A}_{n}$. In addition to learning about various \textit{spectral properties} of $ \mathbb{A}_{n}$, we shall also deduce the relation between these two, which, eventually would lead us to establish a necessary and sufficient condition for the \textit{Riemann Hypothesis} to hold true, as justified by \textit{Redheffer} himself. We shall also observe several numerical evidence as well as theoretical justification behind the falsity of the famous \textit{Mertens Hypothesis}, along with how researchers over the years have approached towards deriving an estimate of the smallest possible natural number $n$ for which the first such violation of the theorem occurs, utilizing numerous conjectures annotating about the order of $M(n)$. Readers who are highly motivated in pursuing research in any of the topics relevent to the contents of this paper will surely find the \texttt{References} section to be extremely resourceful.

Agricultural workers utilize pesticides extensively on their farms to control weeds and insects, as well as increase crop productivity. Despite these advantages, their excessive use poses a seri-ous threat, particularly to the population living at the nexus of urban and rural areas. Exposure to pesticide drift can be investigated using geospatial tools. Remote sensing technology and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques have been used intensively and constitute trusted tools in different sectors, especially in agriculture. Remote sensing depends on pro-cessing the electromagnetic radiation reflected and emitted from the ground target and can be used to identify the spectral signature of crops exposed to pesticides. GIS has powerful tools for building a spatial geo-database of pesticide exposure drift. Therefore, the major objective of the research was to explore the effectiveness of using remote sensing and GIS techniques to estimate the exposure to pesticides in Macon County (Alabama). To achieve this objective, Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) was used to identify accurate cropland areas. The Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 satellite images. Available agricultural pesticide usage data (seven of the seventeen organophosphates used in Alabama) were obtained through the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The results indicated that 6.6% of Macon County’s residents are considered potentially severely exposed, and the potentially affected population resides primarily in rural areas. While 23 percent of residents of rural edges are considered to have potentially medium to high expo-sure. In addition, 38% of residents living in suburban areas are considered to have potentially low-to-medium exposure. Also, the results indicated that both GIS and remote sensing can play an effective role in estimating pesticide exposure drift.

This study aims to evaluate the patient’s dose exposure from Computed Tomography Pulmonary Angiography (CTPA) examination and to estimates the cancer risk induced from the examinations based on the patient’s size. One hundred patients were recruited, and data information was collected retrospectively. A multi-detector (MDCT) (Philips Brilliance 128, USA) scanner were utilized for the CTPA examination, and dose data were obtained from the system. The effective diameter of each subjects’ image was measured for the Size-specific dose estimates (SSDEs). All subjects divided into Group 1 (19 – 25 cm), Group 2 (25-28 cm) and Group 3 (28-38 cm), where the association between gender were analysed. Effective dose (E), SSDE, organ dose and cancer risk of each group were evaluated and compared statistically using independent t-test and one-way ANOVA. The range of mean CTDI_vol, DLP and E values were (6.44 – 17.42 mGy), (239 – 631 mGy), (5.19 – 13.90 mSv), respectively. In respective with the patient’s effective diameter, the mean SSDE value for Group 1, Group 2 and Group 3 were 9.93 ± 3.89 mGy, 13.70 ± 9.04 mGy and 22.29 ± 7.35 mGy. The organ dose and cancer risk attained for breast, lung and liver were 17.05 ± 10.40 mGy (194 per one million procedure), 17.55 ± 10.86 mGy (192 per one million procedure) and 15.04 ± 9.75 mGy (53 per one million procedure), respectively. Lung and breast with more massive patient’s effective diameter received the highest dose exposure which increases the probability of the cancer risk. CTDI_vol was found to be underestimated, and SSDE provides more accurate in describing the radiation dose and cancer risk. Body effective diameter found to be significant on the estimation except for gender. Therefore, it is essential to apply optimised protocols in order to reduce patient’s exposure during CTPA examination.

Recently, in a previous study, we have experimentally shown the existence of an optimal injected steam mass flow rate, per unit length, ϕopt, which produces the maximal recovery of con- densate in a preformed steam chamber with an elliptical cross section of horizontal semi-major axis. Mutatis mutandis, in this work we present experimental studies in preformed steam chambers, one elliptical and the other circular. In both cases, we also have found the existence of unique optimal values. These configurations try to recreate the steam condensation, at a given time lapse, as it would occur during the growth stage of the steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) process, a method used in the recovery of heavy and extra-heavy oil from homogeneous reservoirs. Finding the optimal mass flow rates in actual recovery process could become useful in the design of optimized SAGD processes.