Estimating parameters for multiple datasets can be time consuming, especially when the number of datasets is large. One solution is to sample from multiple datasets simultaneously using Bayesian methods such as adaptive multiple importance sampling (AMIS). Here we use the AMIS approach to fit a von Misses distribution to multiple datasets for wind trajectories derived from a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model driven from a 3D meteorological data. The primary objective is to characterise the uncertainties in wind trajectories in a form that can be used as inputs for predictive models of wind-dispersed insect pests and pathogens of agricultural crops for use in evaluating risk and in planning mitigation actions. Our results show that AMIS can significantly improve the efficiency of parameter inference for multiple datasets.

The studied solar pot is a recent invention, which gained a utility model protection in 2021 from the Hungarian Intellectual Property Office under patent number 5489. The device is made for environmentally friendly cooking or heating (by utilizing solar energy) of foods and liquids. Its structure is similar to a double pipe heat exchanger, it has an outer mantle and an inner cooking tank. The goals of the paper are proposing a new physically-based mathematical model describing the solar pot and carrying out computer experiments with it, assembling an experimental system of the pot connected with a solar collector and performing measurements on it. Based on the results, the solar pot can successfully be used for cooking or sterilizing foods or liquids during the studied time period, in Hungary.

Water is essential to all life-forms including various ecological, geological, hydrological, and climatic processes/activities. With changing climate, associated El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events appear to stimulate highly uncertain patterns of precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (EV) processes across the globe. Changes in P and EV patterns are highly sensitive to temperature variation and thus also affecting natural streamflow processes. This paper presents a novel suite of stochastic modelling approaches for associating streamflow sequences with climatic trends. The present work is built upon a stochastic modelling framework HMM_GP that integrates a Hidden Markov Model with a Generalised Pareto distribution for simulating synthetic flow sequences. The GP distribution within HMM_GP model is aimed to improve the model's efficiency in effectively simulating extreme events. This paper further investigated the potentials of Generalised Extreme Value Distribution (EVD) coupled with an HMM model within a regression-based scheme for associating impacts of precipitation and evapotranspiration processes on streamflow. The statistical characteristic of the pioneering modelling schematic has been thoroughly assessed for their suitability to generate/predict synthetic river flows sequences for a set of future climatic projections. The new modelling schematic can be adapted for a range of applications in the area of hydrology, agriculture and climate change.

Lap joints were friction stir welded in AA 7075-T6 at 1320 rpm and using two welding speeds: 70 mm/min and 120 mm/min. The temperature profiles of the weld zone were registered during the process; furthermore, the microhardness, tensile strength, and microstructure of the joints produced were examined. This study brings new insights into the thermomechanical behavior of the material during the process. The peak temperature obtained with the lower welding speed (70 mm/min) is 10% higher than that obtained with the higher speed (120 mm/min). Moreover, a 5% increase in microhardness and a 6% increase in tensile strength were were observed increasing the welding speed. Addition-ally, the microstructure examination demonstrated that, by decreasing the welding speed, the larger interaction between the tool and the material results in a deeper stir zone due to the increased heat diffusion downwards to the material. This heat flow affects the thermal profile and influences the resulting mechanical properties of the welded joints.

Despite being stored at 113 K and atmospheric pressure, LNG cold potential is not exploited to reduce green ships’ energy needs. An innovative system based on three Organic Ranking Cycles integrated into the regasification equipment is proposed to produce additional power and recover cooling energy from condensers. A first-law analysis identified ethylene and ethane as suitable working fluids for the first and the second ORC making available freshwater and ice. Propane, ammonia and propylene could be arbitrarily employed in the third ORC for air-conditioning. An environmental analysis that combines exergy efficiency, ecological indices and hazard aspects for marine environment and ship’s passengers, indicated propylene as safer and more environmentally friendly. The exergy analysis confirms more than 20% of the LNG potential can be recovered from every cycle to produce a net clean power of 76 kW, whereas 270 kW can be saved by recovering condensers' cooling power to satisfy some ship needs. Assuming the sailing mode, a limitation of 162 kg in LNG consumptions was determined, avoiding the emission of 1584 kg of CO2 per day. Marine thermal pollution is reduced by 3.5 times by recovering the working fluids' condensation heat for the LNG pre-heating.

This paper aims to demonstrate how the detection of communities for epidemiological networks can be used to reduce the dimensionality of optimal control problems. A range of planted partition stochastic blockmodels are generated, where the underlying communities in the model vary in detectability. A high-performance computing workflow is then used to simulate and estimate reduced model dynamics for the networks, which in turn is used to find optimal control solutions.

A controlled ammonia (NH₃) release experiment was performed at a grassland site to quantify the effect of dry deposition, at the field scale between the source and the receptors (NH₃ measurement locations), on the estimates of emission rates by means of inverse dispersion modelling. NH₃ was released for 3 hours at a constant rate of Q = 6.29 mg s⁻¹ from a grid of 36 orifices spread over an area of 250 m². The increase in line-integrated NH₃ concentration was measured with open-path optical miniDOAS devices at different locations downwind of the artificial source. Using a backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS) dispersion model (bLSmodelR), the fraction of the modelled release rate to the emitted NH₃ (Q_bLS/Q) was calculated from the measurements of the individual instruments. Q_bLS/Q was found to be systematically lower than 1, on average between 0.69 and 0.91, depending on the location of the receptor. We hypothesized that NH₃ dry deposition to grass and soil surfaces was the main factor responsible for the observed depletion of NH₃ between source and receptor. A dry deposition algorithm based on a deposition velocity approach was included in the bLS modelling. Model deposition velocities were evaluated from a ‘big‑leaf’ canopy resistance analogy. Canopy resistances (generally termed Rc) that provided Q_bLS/Q = 1 ranged from 75 to 290 s m⁻¹, showing that surface removal of NH₃ by dry deposition can plausibly explain the original underestimation of Q_bLS/Q. The inclusion of a dry deposition process in dispersion modelling is crucial for emission estimates, which are based on concentration measurements of depositing tracers downwind of homogeneous area sources or heterogeneously distributed hot spots, such as e.g. urine patches on pastures in the case of NH₃.

Nucleation is a fundamental and general process at the initial stage of first order phase transition. Although various models based on the classical nucleation theory (CNT) have been proposed to explain the energetics and kinetics of nucleation, detailed understanding on nanoscales are still required. Here we focus on homogeneous bubble nucleation, in which evaluation of the size dependence of bubble free energy is the key issue. We propose application of a formula in stochastic thermodynamics, the Jarzynski’s equality, for data analysis of molecular dynamics (MD) simulation to evaluate the free energy of bubble nucleation. As a test case, we performed a series of MD simulations with Lennard-Jones (LJ) fluid system. By applying an external spherical force field to equilibrated LJ liquid, we evaluated the free energy change during bubble growth as the Jarzynski’s ensemble average of required works. A fairly smooth free energy curve was obtained as a function of bubble radius in metastable liquid of mildly negative pressure conditions.

When wildlife and motor vehicles collide, the result for the animals is often death (roadkill). A commercial roadkill Virtual Fence (VF) mitigation device (iPTE Traffic Solutions) was used in a field trial to test its effectiveness along a 4.9-km segment of road on Bruny Island, Tasmania. A total of 585 days of monitoring of roadkill by species was conducted, with six sections alternatively switched on or off, according to a variation of a Crossover and Multiple Before-After-Control-Impact (MBACI) experimental designs that divided monitoring into “off-on” then “on-off” blocks of periods with each “on” period followed by a 16 d “wash-out” period. For the six sections over the four periods that exclude wash-outs, the 24 aggregated values of daily counts of roadkill of Tasmanian pademelons (Thylogale billardierii), that gave a total count of 222, were modelled. Other species were killed in insufficient numbers for analysis to be informative. The statistical analysis exploited the MBACI design to estimate the VF effect using a log-odds ratio parameter (LORP) while accounting for local spatio-temporal effects. Both versions of the analysis, either averaging over the three spatial replicates (paired sections) or two temporal replicates (blocks) gave no statistically significant effect of the VF judged as a LORP estimate not sufficiently below zero. Corresponding percentage reduction estimates of 9% and 16% were derived from the LORP estimates and given parameter uncertainty estimates the power to detect as significant a LORP corresponding to a 50% reduction in rate were 0.5 and 0.6, respectively. This study confirms results from a similar field trial carried out in 2018 also in southern Tasmania and adds to the evidence that this VF is likely to give if anything only a minor reduction in roadkill for a commonly killed species for which researchers have the best chance of detecting any practically useful reduction.

The objective of this paper was to verify the applicability of statistical learning (SL) compared to human reasoning with respect to the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), a complex tool for the assessment of outdoor thermal stress. UTCI is an equivalent temperature index based on the 48-dimensional output of an advanced model of human thermoregulation formed by 12 variables at four consecutive 30-minute intervals, which were calculated for 105642 thermal conditions from extreme cold to extreme heat. Comparing the performance of SL algorithms to the results accomplished by an international endeavor involving more than 40 experts from 23 countries, we found that random forests and k-nearest neighbors closely predicted UTCI values, but that clustering applied after dimension reduction algorithms (principal component analysis and t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding) were inadequate for risk assessment in relation to the UTCI stress categories. This indicates a potential supportive role for SL, as it will not (yet) fully replace the bio-meteorological expert knowledge.

Weak signal spectral detection is a serious problem in many applications, especially the target possesses certain frequency band and under low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). A kind of novel technique based on pre-whitening scale-transformation symmetric bistable parallel stochastic resonance (SR) is proposed to solve the problem. Firstly, the pre-whitening can ensure the even distribution of the receiving signal to fit the requirement of SR processing. Secondly, the scale- transformation can help to utilize the weak signal improvement property especially under low frequency band more effectively. Thirdly, the symmetric bistable parallel SR can try to reduce the variance of the clutter and additive noise fluently. Fourthly, by subtracting the steady state re-sponse of the selected symmetric bistable SR system from the parallel SR output, the weak signal spectral detection objective can be realized successfully. Simulation results based on the real sea clutter radar data guarantee the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed symmetric bistable PSR processing approach.

The expansion of renewable energies is progressing strongly. The influence on the power supply networks by the volatility of the infeed must be met with new concepts. In this paper we investigate the possibilities of integrating microgrids as a cooperating unit in the power supply network to support further expansion of RES power plants. In this paper a differentiation of microgrids from similar network structures is established, a classification of proposed groups is made. Then, after the description of simulation of components in a microgrid, with practical advice, an example model is shown, which aids the dimensioning of the components within a microgrid to achieve a specified goal.

In this study, a cholera infection model with the bilinear infection rate is developed by considering the perturbation of the infection rate by the mean-reverting process. First of all, we give the existence of a globally unique positive solution for a stochastic system at arbitrary initial value. On this basis, the sufficient condition for the model to have an ergodic stationary distribution is given by constructing proper Lyapunov functions and tight sets. This indicates in a biological sense the long-term persistence of cholera infection. Furthermore, after transforming the stochastic model to an relevant linearised system, an accurate expression for the probability density function of the stochastic model around a quasi-endemic equilibrium is derived. Subsequently, the sufficient condition to make the disease extinct is also derived. Eventually, the theoretical findings are shown by numerical simulations. Numerical simulations show that the impact of regression speed and fluctuation intensity on stochastic systems.

The strong competition in the automotive industry has required manufacturers to implement lean production, both with methods and techniques specific to Industry 4.0. At the same time, universities must provide graduates with specific skills for applying these new production methods and techniques. In this context, a Lean Learning Factory was developed in the Pitesti University Center, which allows students to learn, experiment, and research, in an environment similar to that of enterprises, the new Lean Manufacturing methods and techniques, and Industry 4.0. The research presented in this study had as its objective identifying the minimum number of repetitions necessary to train operators who serve two differently organized workstations, one classic, the other including digital techniques, but on which the same assembly operation is performed. Several indicators were considered in the analysis, such as the number of errors, the number of stops, the effective duration of the work cycle, and the percentage ratio between the standard duration of cyclical activities and the effective duration of the work cycle. The evolution of these indicators was mathematically modelled by regression functions, using the least squares method. The obtained results also highlight the usefulness of applying the DOJO method as a Lean manufacturing-specific learning technique and the efficiency of implementing digital techniques in work organization.

The paper presents the problem of damage detection in steel girders. Static displacements at the selected point of the structure play the role of measured variables. Structural response signal decomposition is performed according to the Mallat pyramid algorithm, which is used to perform the discrete wavelet transform (DWT). This procedure allows us to quite well determine the location of structural damage. The geometry and the placement of any defective part of the structure may have a random character. It can be assumed that the random processes occurring in the broadly understood structure mechanics are Gaussian in nature. The first four probabilistic moments are estimated using three approaches independent: semi-analytical (SAM), perturbative (SPT), and Monte-Carlo simulations (MCS). The semi-analytical random approach seems to be the most optimal due to the necessary computation time. The incorporation of the mathematical stochastic apparatus into the classical (deterministic) analysis of the statics of the structure makes it possible to estimate the reliability measures of the analyzed girder.

Energy consumption modelling is of critical importance for improving energy efficiency in the drive towards sustainable manufacturing. Modern manufacturing processes and machine tools are very complex as they involve interplay of several advanced technologies. Therefore, energy modelling of modern machine tools is a complex multi-disciplinary task. This paper proposes a systematic and practical framework to choose the appropriate modelling approach for a given industrial problem. The framework was validated by applying it to diverse industrial scenarios.

The article is devoted to the new results of the author, which add his previously published ones, of studying hidden rules and symmetries in structures of long single-stranded DNA sequences in eukaryotic and prokaryotic genomes. The author uses the existence of different alphabets of n-plets in DNA: the alphabet of 4 nucleotides, the alphabet of 16 douplets, the alphabet of 64 triplets, etc. Each of such DNA alphabets of n-plets can serve for constructing a text as a chain of these n-plets. Using this possibility, the author represents any long DNA nucleotide sequence as a bunch of many so-called n-texts, each of which is written on the basis of one of these alphabets of n-plets. Each of such n-texts has its individual percents of different n-plets in its genomic DNA. But it turns out that in such multi-alphabetical or multilayer presentation of each of many genomic DNA, analyzed by the author, universal rules of probabilities and symmetry exist in interrelations of its different n-texts regarding their percents of n-plets. In this study, the tensor product of matrices and vectors is used as an effective analytical tool borrowed from the arsenal of quantum mechanics. Some additions to the topic of algebra-holographic principles in genetics are also presented. Taking into account the described genomic rules of probability, the author puts also forward a concept of the important role of stochastic resonances in genetic informatics.

Here we are concerning with two problems of a coupled system of random and stochastic nonlinear differential equations with two coupled systems of nonlinear nonlocal random and stochastic integral conditions. The existence of solutions will be studied. The sufficient condition for the uniqueness of the solution will be given. The continuous dependence of the unique solution on the nonlocal conditions will be proved.

Some physicists surmise that gravity lies outside of quantum mechanics. Thus theories like the standard semiclassical theory of quantum to gravity coupling (that of Rosenfeld and Møller) are possible real models of interaction, rather than a mere approximation of a theory of quantum gravity. Unfortunately, semiclassical gravity creates inconsistencies such as superluminal communication. Alternatives by authors such as Diósi, Martin, Penrose, and Wang often use the term 'stochastic' to set themselves apart from the standard semiclassical theory. These theories couple to fluctuations caused by for instance continuous spontaneous localization, hence the term 'stochastic'. This paper looks at stochastic gravity in the framework of a class of emergent or ontological quantum theories, such as those by Bohm, Cetto, and de Broglie. It is found that much or all of the trouble in connecting gravity with a microscopic system falls away, as Einstein's general relativity is free to react directly with the microscopic beables. The resulting continuous gravitational wave radiation by atomic and nuclear systems does not, in contrast to Einstein's speculation, cause catastrophic problems. The small amount of energy exchanged by gravitational waves may have measurable experimental consequences. A very recent experiment by Vinante et al. performed on a small cantilever at mK temperatures shows a surprising non-thermal noise component, the magnitude of which is consistent with the stochastic gravity coupling explored here.

Nowadays, inquiries are one of the most important tasks to be executed in order to get valued information. When an inquiry is done to gather information about a human behavior there are some problems inherent to it. One of the main problems is how the information about many different persons can be processed to give good information about their environment. Most of the information gathered by these inquiries is used to analyze the behavior of the respondents. It can be used to estimate the success of a certain product on the market or just to validate the satisfaction of current costumers. The veracity of this information can be critical to model environments with some acceptable level of precision. Modelling environments through Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is highly common because ANN’s are excellent to model predictable environments using a set of data. ANN’s are good in deal with sets of data with some noise, but they are fundamentally surjective mathematical functions and they aren’t able to give different results for the same input. So if an ANN is trained using data where the same input has different images which can be the case of survey data, this can be a problem for the success of modelling the environment. Therefore is necessary to process the data in order to adjust and eliminate invalid data.

Performing optimisation and scale-up studies of crystallisation systems requires accurate and computationally efficient mathematical models. The assumption of the ideal mixing conditions in batch reactors typically produce inaccurate results while the computational expense of CFD models is still prohibitively high. Therefore, in this work, a new intermediary approach is proposed that takes into account the non-ideal mixing conditions in the reactor and requires less computational resources than full CFD simulations. Starting with the Danckwerts concept of the intensity of segregation, an analogy between its application to chemical reactions and the kinetics of the crystallisation phenomena (such as nucleation and growth) has been made. As a result, the modified kinetics expressions have been derived which incorporate the effect of non-idealities present in stirred reactors. This way, based on the experimental measurements of the mixing time using the Laser Induced Fluorescence (LIF) technique, computationally more efficient mathematical models can be developed in two ways: (1) the accurate semi-empirical correlations are available for standard mixing configurations with the most often used types of impellers, (2) CFD simulations can be utilised for estimation of the mixing time; in this case it is necessary to simulate only the mixing process. The benefits offered by the LIF experimental technique have been demonstrated and some frequent problems in its application analysed. The mixing time results for configurations with and without baffles for three types of impellers and four different rotational speeds have been presented. The false shorter mixing times in the non-baffled configurations have been observed and this phenomena explained by the existence of two segregated zones in the reactor and confirmed by additional experiments. The precise measurements in these cases have been shown as difficult using the LIF technique, particularly for higher rpms. The experimental data has been compared to the preliminary simulation results obtained from the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics method and the standard k-ε turbulence model with the modest success. The shortcomings of the SPH model have been recognized and the directions for the future work discussed.

We suppose that a Cooper pair (CP) will experience a damping force exerted by the condensed matter. A Langevin equation of a CP in two dimensional condensed matter is established. Following a method similar to Nelson's stochastic mechanics, generalized Schr\"{o}dinger equation of a CP in condensed matter is derived. If the CPs move with a constant velocity, then the corresponding direct current (DC) electrical conductivity can be calculated. Therefore, a Drude like formula of resistivity of CPs is derived. We suppose that the damping coefficient of CPs in two dimensional cuprate superconductors is a linear function of temperature. Then the resistivity and scattering rate of CPs turn out to be also linear-in-temperature. The origin of linear-in-temperature resistivity and Planckian dissipation in cuprate superconductors may be the linear temperature dependence of the damping coefficient of CPs.

Schistosomiasis, acquired by skin-penetrating cercariae of dioecious digenean schistosomes during freshwater contact, afflicts nearly 260 and 440 million people with active infections and residual morbidity, respectively; about 10 million women at reproductive age contract schistosomiasis during gestation every year. Acute schistosomiasis is characterized by pre-patent pro-inflammatory CD4+ T-helper 1 or CD4+ Th1/T-helper 17 reactivity against immature schistosomulae. Chronic schistosomiasis is dominated by post-patent anti-inflammatory CD4+ T-helper 2 reactivity against ova epitopes; flukes co-exist in immunocompetent definitive hosts as they are capable of evading their defense mechanisms. Preventive measures should be complemented by vaccination, inducing long-term protection against transmission, infection, and disease recurrence, given the latest advancements in schistosomal vaccines. Transmission models incorporating vaccination available in PubMed, Embase and Web of Science up to December 31, 2023 are presented. Besides conceptual model differences, predictions meant to guide decision- and policymaking reveal continued worm harboring facilitating transmission besides residual infections, and increased susceptibility to re-infection and rebound morbidity, both shifted to later life stages following the intervention. Consequently, a vaccination schedule is pivotal considering the optimal age for initial immunization, i.e., pre-schoolchildren or schoolchildren, in a cohort-based or population-based manner while incorporating potential non-adherers promoting ongoing transmission; longevity over magnitude of vaccine protection to antigenic schistosomal moieties is crucial including accounting for existing pre-acquired immunity from natural exposure, in utero priming besides herd immunity, and induced by chemotherapy. Combining as one multi-component approach long-term effects of vaccination with short-term effects of chemotherapy as regular repeated vaccine-linked therapy in contrast to a single-component intervention seems most promising for achieving WHO’s endpoints of transmission elimination and morbidity control.

We are witnessing a progressive divestment of some institutions with strong traditions and skills in physical modelling and their consequent impoverishment, to the detriment of numerical modelling. For many reasons, the economic imperatives and the exponential growth of computational means and numerical methods should certainly not be excluded. In this work, we aimed to highlight the new requirements of the recent sophisticated developments in physical modelling, precisely due to the new needs imposed on them by mathematical and numerical modelling and the growing risks in civil construction works. In this context, reflections are reported, justified by scientific and real-world examples, on the need for maintenance and reinforcement of investments in physical modelling, both to support the scientific community and to design buildings of significant economic, social and environmental impact.

The Vacuum Energy Parameter (VEP) of standard cosmology denotes the fraction of the critical density attributed to the accelerated expansion of the Universe. Astrophysical evidence sets the numerical range of VEP at 0.692 +, - 0.012, yet the root cause of these values is currently unknown. Drawing from the stochastic interpretation of early-Universe cosmology, we develop here a derivation of the VEP based on classical diffusion theory and the Langevin equation. Predictions are shown to be in reasonable agreement with observations.

The electric vehicle (EV) industry challenges battery joining technologies by requiring higher energy density both by mass and volume. Improving the energy density via new battery chemistry would be the holy grail but is seriously hindered and progresses slowly. In the meantime, alternative ways, such as implementing more efficient cell packaging by minimizing the electrical resistance of joints are of primary focus. In this paper we discuss the challenges associated with the electrical characterisation of laser soldered joints in general, and the minimization of their resistive losses, in particular. In order to assess the impact of the joint resistance on the overall resistance of the sample, the alteration in resistance was monitored as a function of voltage probe distance and modelled by finite element simulation. The experimental measurements showed two different regimes: one far from of the joint area and another in its vicinity and within the joints cross section. The presented results confirm the importance of the thickness of the filler material, the effective and the total soldered area, and the area and the position of the voids within the total soldered area in determining the electrical resistance of joints.

The relentless challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic have placed immense pressure on densely populated regions, such as Hong Kong, particularly in the context of an aging population. The burgeoning demand for healthcare services has necessitated the optimization of resource al-location within healthcare systems. This research presents an innovative analytical queueing model specifically tailored to address the intricate gridlock dynamics prevalent in healthcare systems, with a focused application in the challenging landscape of COVID-19 management. Hong Kong, like numerous other regions, has experienced a demo-graphic transition leading to heightened healthcare demands. Traditional methodologies for scrutinizing gridlock issues in healthcare settings, including simulation models, often prove suboptimal within the context of sophisticated optimization frameworks. This study, however, delves into analytical queueing models, offering a more efficient and effective approach. These models have been underexplored, primarily due to the intricacies involved in modeling gridlock propagation within restricted capacity, a critical concern magnified by the COVID-19 pandemic. The novel Queueing Model introduced in this research incorporates the maintenance of queue capacities and topological aspects as exogenous parameters, rendering it exceptionally adaptable for diverse gridlock-related applications. This adaptability is especially pertinent to healthcare management during the COVID-19 crisis. The model meticulously integrates the concept of gridlock, furnishing a comprehensive comprehension of its origins and repercussions. Validation of this model involves rigorous comparison with established methodologies, exact results, and simulation data, consistently high-lighting its versatility and precision. By applying the model to healthcare management, we scrutinize the dynamics of patient flow within a Hong Kong hospital, placing specific emphasis on the critical issue of bed blockage, further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The model's gridlock decomposition unearths the nuanced impact of bed blockage on distinct hospital units, addressing the imperative requirement for quantifying in-patient bed blockage within healthcare systems during a pandemic.

Water footprint has been widely used to illustrate the consumption of water in many situations; for instance, in products, processes or regions of interest. In this work, we analyzed – using a sensitivity analysis approach – the effect of some variables in the calculation of the water footprint in the viticulture in Brazilian Serra Gaúcha (the major producing region of Brazilian Wine).The classical Penman-Monteith model for evapotransporation was considered, with uncertainties in some parameters (dead mulch covering fraction in the vineyard, maximum temperatures for some months, altitudes and latitudes of the site). The sensitivity analysis was conducted using the SAFE toolbox under Octave framework. The results indicated that the the portion of the water footprint corresponding to the evapotranspiration is more sensitive to the values of mulch covering fraction and the altitude of the site in comparison with the latitude and the maximum temperatures.

Prior studies have focused on the overall behavior of randomly moving particle swarms. However, the characteristics of the stochastic-constrained particles that form ubiquitously within these swarms remain oblivious. This study demonstrates a generalized diffusion equation for stochastic-constrained particles that considers the velocity and location aggregation effects observed from their parent particle swarm (i.e., a completely random particle swarm). This equation can be approximated as the form of Schr\"odinger equation in the microcosmic case (low relative density) and describe the dynamics of the total mass distribution in the macrocosmic case (high relative density). The predicted density distribution of the particle swarm in the stable aggregation state is consistent with the total mass distribution of massive, relaxed galaxy clusters (at least in the range of r < r_s), preventing cuspy problems in the empirical Navarro-Frenk-White (NFW) profile. This study opens a window to observe the dynamics of stochastic-constrained particles from a third perspective, from which the aggregation effect of particles without gravitation can be saw.

We apply the stochastic thermodynamics formalism to describe the dynamics of systems of complex Langevin and Fokker-Planck equations. We provide in particular a simple and general recipe to calculate thermodynamical currents, dissipated and propagating heat for networks of nonlinear oscillators. By using the Hodge decomposition of thermodynamical forces and fluxes, we derive a formula for entropy production that generalises the notion of non-potential forces and makes transparent the breaking of detailed balance and of time reversal symmetry for states arbitrarily far from equilibrium. Our formalism is then applied to describe the off-equilibrium thermodynamics of a few examples, notably a continuum ferromagnet, a network of classical spin-oscillators and the Frenkel-Kontorova model of nano friction.

Capsule endoscopy, which uses a wireless camera to take images of the digestive tract, is emerging as an alternative to traditional colonoscopy. The diagnostic values of these images depend on the quality of revealed underlying tissue surfaces. In this paper, we consider the problem of enhancing the visibility of detail and shadowed tissue surfaces for capsule endoscopy images. Using concentric circles at each pixel for random walks combined with stochastic sampling, the proposed method enhances the details of vessel and tissue surfaces. The framework decomposes the image into two detail layers that contain shadowed tissue surfaces and detail features. The target pixel value is recalculated for the smooth layer using similarity of the target pixel to neighboring pixels by weighting against the total gradient variation and intensity differences. In order to evaluate the diagnostic image quality of the proposed method, we used clinical subjective evaluation with a rank order on selected KID image database and compared to state of the art enhancement methods. The result showed that the proposed method provides a better result in terms of diagnostic image quality and objective quality contrast metrics and structural similarity index.

This paper introduces a three-layer system, proposing a comprehensive model of granular mixture transport over a mobile sloped bed in a steady flow. This system, consisting of the bottom, contact and upper zones, provides complete, continuous sediment velocity and concentration vertical profiles. The model considers gravity’s effect on sediment transport in the bottom (dense) layer, a crucial factor often overlooked in previous studies. The induced movement in the mobile sublayer of the dense layer causes an increase in velocity at the upper boundary of this layer, significantly affecting the vertical distributions of velocity and concentration above this layer. We described the interactions between fractions and an intensive sediment mixing and sorting process in the contact layer. The proposed shear variation, with an increase in its maximum value at the bed, adds to the novelty of our approach. The data sets used for the model’s validation cover various conditions, including slopes, grain diameters, densities and grain mobility conditions, from incipient motion to a fully mobilised bed. This extensive validation process instils confidence in the theoretical description and its applicability to real-world scenarios.

Reservoirs created by damming rivers significantly modify the environment and problems may arise: the storage of nutrients and organic matter in reservoirs often leads to decreased water quality due to eutrophication. Reservoirs built on lowland rivers are exposed to significant nutrient loads, often leading to eutrophication. In this article, the Sulejów Reservoir, in Central Poland, was the subject of the research, which focused on the use of Sentinel-2 remote sensing data to detect phytoplankton blooms, and on understanding the pattern of wind-driven surface currents using the CCHE2D model (a depth-averaged hydrodynamic model). The calculation of the total phosphorus load has shown that the reservoir mainly acts as nutrient storage. Still, during the low flow and intensive phytoplankton bloom, it can be a source of nutrients. The distribution of phytoplankton bloom on the Sulejów Reservoir was documented using eight Sentinel-2 satellite images from the vegetation season of 2020 and the Normalized Difference Chlorophyll Index (NDCl). Coupling remote sensing data and numerical modelling helps to interpret the hydrodynamic model results and understand nutrients and sediment dynamics within the reservoir. Hydrodynamic modelling combined with remote sensing data can be a valuable tool for selecting appropriate locations for water quality measurements at monitoring stations.

The partial discharge (PD) event in high voltage insulation releases energy, exerts mechanical pressure, and generates elastic waves. Detecting and locating these PD events through short-duration acoustic pulses is well-established, particularly in gas-insulated systems and oil-insulated transformers. However, its full potential remains untapped in solid insulation systems, where the propagation capability of acoustic pulse and the acoustic reflections pose fundamental challenges to the Acoustic Emission (AE) detection technique. This study investigates the influence of reflections and multiple paths on the propagating acoustic pulse in polymeric insulating materials using a finite element method (FEM) in COMSOL. It was observed that the reflections from the boundary influence the propagating pulse's shape, peak magnitude, and arrival time. An analytical MATLAB model further quantifies the impact of multiple propagation paths on the shape, magnitude, and arrival time of the pulse travelling in a cylinder. Additionally, a Perfect Matched Layer (PML) was implemented in the COMSOL model to eliminate reflections from the boundary, and it revealed that the acoustic pulse magnitude decreases with distance following the inverse square law. In essence, the models aid in measuring how reflections contribute to the observed signals, facilitating the precise identification of the source of the PD event in the tested system.

Industrial fires at facilities including waste management sites, warehouses, factories, chemical works and fuel storage depots are relatively frequent occurrences. Often, these fires occur adjacent to urban communities and result in ground-level airborne pollutant concentrations that are well above guideline values. Land, water, livestock and crops may also be contaminated by the emissions and by firefighting activities. Moreover, impacted communities tend to have a higher proportion of minority ethnic populations, individuals with underlying health vulnerabilities, as well as those of lower socio-economic status. Nevertheless, this is an aspect of air quality that is under-researched, and so this review aims to highlight the public health hazards associated with industrial fires and the need for an effective, coordinated, public health response. We also review the range of monitoring techniques that have been utilised in such fires and highlight the role of dispersion modelling in predicting plume trajectories and in estimating population exposure. We recommend establishing 1-h guideline values for particulate matter to facilitate timely public health interventions and we highlight the need to review regulatory and technical controls for sites prone to fires, particularly in the waste sector.

The main sources of intrinsic noise in excitable cells at the microcircuit and network levels are the stochastic characteristics of ion channel gating and activation of the synaptic conductance. Studies using in vivo, in vitro, and in silico methods to examine the effects of synaptic background activity were not adequately investigated in non-neuronal excitatory cells, where neurotransmitter-based innervation also occurs. We created a mathematical model to replicate the background synaptic noise dynamics in a non-neuronal cell. We utilized the stochastic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to represent excitatory synaptic conductance, which was incorporated into a whole-cell model to produce spontaneous and evoked cellular electrical activities. The single-cell model includes many biophysically detailed ion channels represented by a set of ordinary differential equations in Hodgkin-Huxley and Markov formalisms. This paradigm effectively induced irregular spontaneous depolarizations (SDs) and spontaneous action potential (sAP) resembling in vitro-like electrical activity in the cells. The input resistance decreased by multiple factors, and the spontaneous action potential firing rate elevated. The potential to reach the action potential threshold is altered. Background synaptic activity can alter the input/output characteristics of non-neuronal excitatory cells. Suppressing these baseline activities would facilitate the discovery of new pharmaceutical targets for different clinical diseases.

The exact, non perturbative, response theory developed within the field of nonequilibrium molecular dynamics, also known as TTCF (Transient Time Correlation Function) applies to quite general dynamical systems. Its key element is called dissipation function, because it represents the power dissipated by external fields acting on the particle system of interest, whose coupling with the environment is given by deterministic thermostats. This theory has been initially developed for time independent external perturbations, and then it has been extended to time dependent perturbations. It has also been applied to dynamical systems of different nature, and to oscillator models undergoing phase transitions, which cannot be treated withe.g. linear response theory. The present work includes time dependent stochastic perturbations, in the theory, using the Karhunen-Loeve theorem. This leads to three different investigations of a given process. One in which a single realization of the stochastic coefficients is fixed, and averages are taken only over the initial conditions, as in a deterministic process. In the second, the initial condition is fixed, and averages are taken with respect to the distribution of stochastic coefficients. In the last investigations, one averages over both initial conditions and stochastic coefficients. We conclude illustrating the applicability of the resulting exact response theory with simple examples.

This study investigates the stochastic dynamics of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection using a newly proposed stochastic model. Contrary to deterministic models that fail to encapsulate the inherent randomness and fluctuations in biological processes, our stochastic model provides a more realistic representation of HBV infection dynamics. It incorporates random variability, thereby acknowledging the changes in viral and cellular populations and uncertainties in parameters such as infection rates and immune responses. We examine the solution's existence, uniqueness, and positivity for the proposed model, followed by a comprehensive stability analysis. We provide the necessary and sufficient conditions for local and global stability, offering deep insight into the infection dynamics. Furthermore, we utilize numerical simulations to corroborate our theoretical results. This research provides a robust tool for understanding the complex behavior of HBV dynamics, contributing significantly to the ongoing quest for more effective HBV control and prevention strategies.

Elderly individuals frequently perceive companion robots devoid of warmth, resulting in a reluctance to accept these robots' services. This perception has become a significant barrier to the introduction of companion robots into households. To address this issue, this study employs KE methods to translate the elderly's need for warmth perception from companion robots into elements of modelling design. Initially, 20 pairs of affective words and 22 sample images of companion robots were chosen. The "rational-emotional" and "dim-bright" dimensions were identified as positively influencing the elderly's warmth perception of companion robots through SD method analysis. Subsequently, a hierarchical analysis table was established, with warmth perception as the root layer, modelling style and color matching as the basic layer, "rational-emotional" and "dim-bright" as the expansion layer, and the eight characteristic elements of companion robots as the morphological layer. The link between affective imagery and design elements was then established from the sample robots with higher warmth perception scores. Based on the correlation between the two, various design schemes were formed through random combinations. Finally, the design schemes were evaluated using the warmth perception scale, and the warmth perception scores of each sample model were obtained. This research provides design references for designing companion robots for the elderly with a "sense of warmth".

An exploding demand for processing capabilities related to the emergence of the IoT, AI and big data, has led to the quest for increasingly efficient ways to expeditiously process the rapidly increasing amount of data. These ways include different approaches like improved devices capable of going further in the more Moore path, but also new devices and architectures capable of going beyond Moore and getting more than Moore. Among the solutions being proposed, Stochastic Computing has positioned itself as a very reasonable alternative for low-power, low-area, low-speed, and adjustable precision calculations; four key-points beneficial to edge computing. On the other hand, chaotic circuits and systems appear to be an attractive solution for (low-power, green) secure data transmission in the frame of edge computing and IoT in general. Classical implementations of this class of circuits require intensive and precise calculations. This paper discusses the use of the SC framework for the implementation of nonlinear systems, showing that it can provide results comparable to those of classical integration, with much simpler hardware, paving the way for relevant applications.

The paper presents the author’ original modification of the residual method in order to construct an efficient tool for assessing the condition of photovoltaic cells, in particular – panels made of amorphous cells which are characterized by significant random operation parameter changes. The solution constructed has been verified through experiments, which show the usefulness of the proposed methodology as it allows to minimize the risk of obtaining false diagnostic information in the process of assessing the condition of photovoltaic panels.

In January and February 2001, El Salvador was hit by two strong earthquakes that triggered thousands of landslides, causing 1,259 fatalities and extensive damage. The analysis of aerial and SPOT-4 satellite images taken a few days after the events allowed us to map 6,491 coesismic landslides, which occurred in 14 study areas extending for about 400 km2. Four different Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models were produced by using different covariate sets and landslide inventories, the latter containing the slope failures triggered by an extreme rainfall event of November 2009 and those induced by the earthquakes of 2001. Moreover, two validation scenarios were employed, including the 25% and 95% of the mapped landslides, respectively. The results of our experiment revealed that: (i) MARS algorithm provides reliable predictions of coesismic landslides; (ii) models calibrated with rainfall-induced landslides predict with acceptable accuracy landslides caused by deep earthquakes and distributed over vast areas; (iii) the best accuracy is achieved by models trained with both preparatory and trigger variables; (iv) a small portion of the landslides produced by an earthquake can be used to calibrate MARS predictive models that help to identify slopes where yet unreported landslides may have occurred.

This paper seeks to model the crack propagation in of AAs (aluminum-alloys) 2524-T3 and 7050-T7452 subjected to fatigue loading at low temperature. Fatigue crack growth tests were performed on AAs 2524-T3 and 7050-T7452 subjected to constant-amplitude and actual random-spectra loading histories at room temperature of about 25 °C and at cryogenic temperature of -70 °C, respectively, to determine their crack growth properties and residual lives. The interaction mechanisms between cryogenic temperature and the fatigue load were deduced on the basis of the results of fractographic analysis. Temperature-dependent residual lives under actual random-spectrum load history were modeled based on a modified accumulation damage rule by accounting for the load interaction. Good correlation was achieved between the predictions and actual experiments, demonstrating the practical and effective use of the proposed method.

The fitting and modeling of skewed, complex, symmetric, and asymmetric datasets is an exciting research topic in many fields of applied sciences, notably lifetime, medical, and financial sciences. The Heavy tailed Nadarajah Haghighi model is introduced by compounding the heavy tailed family and Nadarajah Haghighi distribution in this paper. The so obtained model has three parameters accounting for the scale and shape of the distribution. The proposed distribution's fundamental characteristics such as probability density, cumulative distribution, hazard rate, and survival functions are provided, and several key statistical properties are established, and several entropy information measures are proposed. The estimation of model parameter is performed via the ML procedure. Further, different simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate the performance of proposed estimator’s using some measure, like the average estimate, the average bias, and associated mean square error. Finally, we are applied our proposed model to analyze three different real datasets. In our illustration, we are compared the practicality of the recommended model with several well-known competing models.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are usually used to predict current species’ geographic distributions and to forecast the impact of climate change, with different aims, such as conservation, and biodiversity management. SDMs use has been increasing in the last decades, however, they are vulnerable to parametrization and data quality input. Thus, inappropriate input can lead to potential unreliability in results. In this context, the most used data and methodologies in SDM, and putative deviations from the consensual best practices, were identified, by analysing recent literature (2018 to 2022). Results show that the parameters presented more consistently are the chosen algorithm (MaxEnt was used in 98% of the studies), the accuracy measures, and the time windows. Many papers fail to specify other parameters, limiting the reproducibility of the studies. Some papers also fail to provide information about the target species: only a fraction of the species' range is considered, or no justification for including specific variables in the model is provided. These options can decrease reliability in predictions under future scenarios since data provided to the model is inaccurate from the start or there is insufficient information for outputs discussion.

Problem solving is one of the most important components of the human cognition that affects for ages the progress of the human society. Mathematical modelling is a special type of problem solving concerning problems related to science or everyday life situations. The present study is a review of the author’s earlier works on problem solving and mathematical modelling from the scope of Education. Its real goal is that it presents in a systematic way and in a few pages only the results of many years research on the subject. This helps the reader to get a comprehensive idea about a very important topic belonging to the core of Mathematics Education, which is very useful to those wanting to study deeper the subject and get directions for further research in the area.

Real assets in the energy market are subject to ecological uncertainty due to the penetration of renewables. We illustrate this point by analysing electrolysers, a class of assets which recently became the subject of a large interest, as they lead to the production of the desirable green hydrogen and green ammonia. The latter has the advantage of being easily stored and has huge potential in decarbonising both the fertilizer and shipping industries. We consider the optimization of green ammonia production with different types of electricity procurement in the context of stochastic power and ammonia markets, a necessary assumption to translate the features of renewable, hence intermittent, electricity. We emphasise the importance of using stochastic prices to effectively model the volatile nature of the price dynamics, illustrating the project risks that can be mitigated by hedging activities. This study shows the pivotal role of flexibility when dealing with fluctuating renewable production and volatile electricity prices to maximise profits and better manage risks.

Dealing with randomness is a crucial aspect that cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) tools need to address, but existing stochastic CEA tools have rarely examined risk and return from the perspective of global benefits. This paper proposes a stochastic CEA tool that supports medical decision-making from the perspective of global benefits of risk and return, the risk-adjusted incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The tool has a traditional form of ICER but uses the risk-adjusted expected cost. Theoretically, we prove that the tool can provide marginal medical decisions that promote the risk-return level on global benefits within any intervention structure and can also serve as a discriminating condition for the optimal intervention structure. Numerical simulations within a framework of mean-variance support the conclusions in this paper.

We outline and test a new methodology for genuine simulation of stochastic processes with any dependence and any marginal distribution. We reproduce time dependence with a generalized, time symmetric or asymmetric, moving-average scheme. This implements linear filtering of non-Gaussian white noise, with the weights of the filter determined by analytical equations in terms of the autocovariance of the process. We approximate the marginal distribution of the process, irrespective of its type, using a number of its cumulants, which in turn determine the cumulants of white noise in a manner that can readily support the generation of random numbers from that approximation, so that it be applicable for stochastic simulation. The simulation method is genuine as it uses the process of interest directly without any transformation (e.g. normalization). We illustrate the method in a number of synthetic and real-world applications with either persistence or antipersistence, and with non-Gaussian marginal distributions that are bounded, thus making the problem more demanding. These include distributions bounded from both sides, such as uniform, and bounded form below, such as exponential and Pareto, possibly having a discontinuity at the origin (intermittence). All examples studied show the satisfactory performance of the method.

In line with Pomeau’s conjecture about the relevance of directed percolation (DP) to turbulence onset/decay in wall-bounded flows, we propose a minimal stochastic model dedicated to the interpretation of the spatially intermittent regimes observed in channel flow before its return to laminar flow. Numerical simulations show that a regime with bands obliquely drifting in two stream-wise symmetrical directions bifurcates into an asymmetrical regime, before ultimately decaying to laminar flow. The model is expressed in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton evolving von Neumann neighbourhoods with probabilities educed from a close examination of simulation results. It implements band propagation and the two main local processes: longitudinal splitting involving bands with the same orientation, and transversal splitting giving birth to a daughter band with orientation opposite to that of its mother. The ultimate decay stage observed to display one-dimensional DP properties in a two-dimensional geometry is interpreted as resulting from the irrelevance of lateral spreading in the single-orientation regime. The model also reproduces the bifurcation restoring the symmetry upon variation of the probability attached to transversal splitting, which opens the way to a study of the critical properties of that bifurcation, in analogy with thermodynamic phase transitions.

Partial differential representation of self-similarity feature has been derived from notion of the homogenous function in general sense. This representation allows consideration of stochastic self-similar systems. As well as the partial differential representation allows consideration of Stochastic Partial Differential Equation.

The e-commerce sector is in a constant state of growth and evolution, particularly within its subdomain of online food delivery. As such, ensuring customer satisfaction is critical for companies working in this field. One way to achieve this is by providing accurate delivery time estimation. While companies can track couriers via GPS, they often lack real-time data on traffic and road conditions, complicating delivery time predictions. To address this, a range of statistical and machine learning techniques are being employed, including neural networks and specialized expert systems, with different degree of success. One issue with neural networks and machine learning models is their heavy dependence on vast, high quality data. To mitigate this issue we propose two Bayesian generalized linear models to predict time of the delivery. Utilizing a linear combination of predictor variables, we generate practical range of outputs with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling method. These models offer a balance of generality and adaptability, allowing for tuning with expert knowledge. They were compared with PSIS-LOO and WAIC criteria. Results show that both models accurately estimated delivery times from the dataset, while maintaining numerical stability. Model with more predictor variables proved to be more accurate.

This paper is motivated by spatio-temporal pattern in the occurrence of Leishmaniasis in Afghanistan and the relatively high number of zero counts. We hold the view that correlations that arise from spatial and temporal sources are inherently distinct. Our method decouples these two sources of correlations, there are at least two advantages in taking this approach. First, it circumvents the need to inverting a large correlation matrix, which is a commonly encountered problem in spatio-temporal analyses. Second, it simplifies the modelling of complex relationships such as anisotropy, which would have been extremely difficult or impossible if spatio-temporal correlations were simultaneously considered. We identify three challenges in the modelling of a spatio-temporal process: (1) accommodation of covariances that arise from spatial and temporal sources; (2) choosing the correct covariance structure and (3) extending to situations where a covariance is not the natural measure of association. Moreover, because the data covers a period that overlaps with the US invasion of Afghanistan, the high number of zero counts may be the result of no disease incidence or lapse of data collection. To resolve this issue, a model truncated at zero built on a foundation of the generalized estimating equations was proposed.

As a model for economic and ecological systems, replicator dynamics represents a basic form of agent competition for finite resources. Here, we investigate the effects of stochastic resetting in this kind of processes. Random reset events abruptly lead individual resources to a small value from which dynamics must start anew. Numerical results show that resource distribution over the population of competing agents develops highly nonuniform profiles, exhibiting clustering and fluctuations with anomalous dependence on the population size. This non-standard statistical behavior jeopardizes an analytical treatment based on mean-field assumptions. We propose alternative simplified analytical approaches which provide a stylized description of entropy evolution for the clustered distribution of resources and explain the unusually slow decrease of fluctuations.

Intratumoral heterogeneity can exist along multiple axes: Cancer Stem Cells (CSCs)/non-CSCs, drug-sensitive/drug-tolerant states and a spectrum of epithelial-hybrid-mesenchymal phenotypes. Further, these diverse cell-states can switch reversibly among one another, thereby posing a major challenge to therapeutic efficacy. Therefore, understanding the origins of phenotypic plasticity and heterogeneity remains an active area of investigation. While genomic components (mutations, chromosomal instability) driving heterogeneity have been well-studied, recent reports highlight the role of non-genetic mechanisms in enabling both phenotypic plasticity and heterogeneity. Here, we discuss various processes underlying phenotypic plasticity such as stochastic gene expression, chromatin reprogramming, asymmetric cell division and the presence of multiple “attractors”. These processes can facilitate a dynamically evolving cell population such that a subpopulation of (drug-tolerant) cells can survive lethal drug exposure and recapitulate population heterogeneity on drug withdrawal, leading to relapse. These drug-tolerant cells can be both pre-existing and also induced by the drug itself through cell-state reprogramming. The dynamics of cell-state transitions both in absence and presence of the drug can be quantified through mathematical models. Such a dynamical systems approach to elucidating patterns of intratumoral heterogeneity by integrating longitudinal experimental data with mathematical models can help design effective combinatorial and/or sequential therapies for better clinical outcomes.

In this paper, we compare the performance between systems of ordinary and (Caputo) fractional differential equations depicting the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) models of diseases. In order to understand the origins of both approaches as mean-field approximations of integer and fractional stochastic processes, we introduce the fractional differential equations as approximations of some type of fractional nonlinear birth--death processes. Then, we examine validity of the two approaches against empirical courses of epidemics; we fit both of them to case counts of three measles epidemics that occurred during the pre-vaccination era in three different locations. While FDEs appear more flexible in fitting empirical data, our ODEs offered better fits to two out of three data sets. Important differences in transient dynamics between these modeling approaches are discussed.

Healthcare leaders are faced with many financial challenges in the contemporary environment, leading to many bankruptcies in recent years. What is not well understood are the specific conditions that lead to organizational economic failure. Ideally, hospital leaders could examine the literature for guidance to predict bankruptcy before it occurs. However, existing regression methods have proven inadequate, especially when the finance variables follow a nonnormal frequency pattern. Furthermore, the regression approach encounters difficulties due to multicollinearity and nonnormality issues. Therefore, an alternate stochastic approach for predicting the probability of hospital bankruptcy is warranted. This new method includes computing and interpreting the correlations between the hospital’s revenue and expenses for bivariate lognormal data, calculating the risk of bankruptcy due to the mismatch between revenues and expenses, determining the likelihood of a hospital’s expense exceeding the state’s median expense level, and evaluating a hospital’s financial memory level. Ultimately in our research, we demonstrate a novel approach to anticipate hospital bankruptcy, which can be particularly useful for health policy analysts and hospital leaders in making informed financial decisions and proactively managing risks to ensure the sustainability and stability of their institutions.

The present paper reports an alternative solution of the measurement problem in quantum theory. The measurement problem can be characterized as that the U-procedure verses the R-procedure. The R-procedure is tested by the Yes/No measurement originally proposed by von Neuman and discussed in details by Penrose. We propose a novel stochastic sampling method to tackle the measurement paradox. Each testing sample produces a pair of Yes-number c and No-number d, which in turn generates a sample phase with respect to the exponential form of (c+id). All the sample phases forms a group G_R. Taking G_R as the sampling potential, combined with the dynamic phase group G_U，we establish a unified model of U-procedure and R-procedure for the evolution of wavefunction. Based on the Born rule, the probability of a sample is given by the squared magnitude of （c+id）. Some metaproperties of the new U-R model, such as natural transformation, consistency, and completeness, are presented. The present work provides a new picture of quantum mechanics and alike. The measurement problem widely exists in dynamic analysis, higher cognition, and large data modeling. Thus, the work reported here has a wide range of applications. Keywords: The measurement problem; U-R procedures; the Yes/No type measurement; stochastic sampling; sample phase; Born probability.

It is known that the source of a tectonic earthquake in the framework of the theory of elasticity and viscoelasticity is considered as a displacement along a certain fault surface. Usually, when describing the source, the geometry of the fault surface is simplified to a flat rectangular area. The displacement vector is assumed to be constant. In this paper, we propose a model of an earthquake source in the form of a displacement with a constant vector along a stochastic surface. A number of standard assumptions were made when modeling. We take into account only the elastic properties of the medium. We consider the Earth’s crust as a half-space and assume that the medium is homogeneous and isotropic. For the mathematical description of the earthquake source, we use the classical force equivalent of displacement along the fault. This is the distribution of double pairs of forces. The field of displacements under the action of body forces is found through a combination of Mindlin nuclei of strain. The paper presents solutions for strike-slip fault. To obtain a stochastic fault surface, we propose to introduce a random deformation of a rectangular flat surface. The paper presents the results of a computational experiment comparing the levels and regions of relative deformations of the Earth’s crust in the case of displacement along a flat rupture surface and along a stochastic one. In the case of a stochastic surface, the regions of relative deformations become asymmetric. The developed model will help to indirectly take into account various mechanical properties of the Earth’s crust when modeling deformations caused by earthquakes.

In this paper, we first establish upper stochastic bounds on the lifetime of a used cold standby system with arbitrary age, using the likelihood ratio order and the usual stochastic order. Then, stochastic comparisons are made between the lifetime of a used cold standby system with age t and the lifetime of a cold standby system consisting of used components with age t using the likelihood ratio order and the usual stochastic order. We use illustrative examples to explore the results presented.

A stochastic dominance (SD) relation can be defined by two different perspectives: One from the view of distributions, and the other one from the view of expected utilities. In early days, Fishburn investigated SD from the view of distributions and we refer this perspective as Fishburn’s SD. One of his many results was the development of fractional-order SD for continuous distributions. However, discrete fractional-order SD may not be generalized directly since some properties of fractional calculus do not have a discrete counterpart. In this paper, we develop a discrete analogue of fractional-order SD from the view of distributions. We generalize the order of SD by Lizama’s fractional delta operator, show the preservation of SD hierarchy, and formulate the utility classes that are congruent with our SD relations. This work brings a message that some results of discrete SD cannot be generalized directly from continuous SD. We characterize the difference between discrete and continuous fractional-order SD, as well as the way to handle them.

Due to the increased use of memristors, and its many applications, the use of emulators has grown in parallel to avoid some of the difficulties presented by real devices such as variability and reliability. In this paper, we present a memristive emulator designed using a Switched Capacitor (SC), this is, an analog component/ block and a control part or block implemented using stochastic computing (SCo) and therefore fully digital. Our design is thus a mixed signal circuit. Memristor equations are implemented using stochastic computing to generate the control signals necessary to work with the controllable resistor implemented as switched capacitor.

Cellular Nonlinear Networks (CNN) are a concept introduced in 1988 by Leon Chua and Lin Yang as a bio-inspired architecture, capable of massively parallel computation. Later on, CNN have been enhanced by incorporating designs that incorporate memristors to profit from their processing and memory capabilities. In addition, Stochastic Computing (SC) can be used to optimize the quantity of required processing elements; thus it provides a lightweight approximate computing framework, quite accurate and effective, though. In this work, we propose utilization of SC in designing and implementing a memristor-based CNN. As a proof of the proposed concept, an example of application is presented. This application combines Matlab and a FPGA in order to create the CNN. The implemented CNN has then been used to perform three different real-time applications on a 512x512 gray-scale and a 768x512 color image: storage of the image, edge detection, and image sharpening. It has to be pointed out that the same CNN has been used for the three different tasks, with the sole change of some programmable parameters. Results show an excellent capability with significant accompanying advantages, like the low number of needed elements further allowing for a low cost FPGA-based system implementation, something confirming the system’s ability for real time operation.

We present a class of efficient parametric closure models for 1D stochastic Burgers equations. Casting it as statistical learning of the flow map, we derive the parametric form by representing the unresolved high wavenumber Fourier modes as functionals of the resolved variables’ trajectory. The reduced models are nonlinear autoregression (NAR) time series models, with coefficients estimated from data by least squares. The NAR models can accurately reproduce the energy spectrum, the invariant densities, and the autocorrelations. Taking advantage of the simplicity of the NAR models, we investigate maximal and optimal space-time reduction. Reduction in space dimension is unlimited, and NAR models with two Fourier modes can perform well. The NAR model’s stability limits time reduction, with a maximal time step smaller than that of the K-mode Galerkin system. We report a potential criterion for optimal space-time reduction: the NAR models achieve minimal relative error in the energy spectrum at the time step where the K-mode Galerkin system’s mean CFL number agrees with the full model’s.

In recent years, the field of deep learning achieved considerable success in pattern recognition, image segmentation and may other classification fields. There are a lot of studies and practical applications of deep learning on images, video or text classification. In this study, we suggest a method for changing the architecture of the most performing CNN models with the aim of designing new models to be used as stand-alone networks or as a component of an ensemble. We propose to replace each activation layer of a CNN (usually a ReLu layer) by a different activation function stochastically drawn from a set of activation functions: in this way the resulting CNN has a different set of activation function layers.

Regression models form the core of the discipline of econometrics. One of the basic assumptions of classical linear regression model is that the values of the explanatory variables are fixed in repeated sampling. However, in most of the real life cases, particularly in economics the assumption of fixed regressors is not always tenable. Under a non-experimental or uncontrolled environment, the dependent variable is often under the influence of explanatory variables that are stochastic in nature. There is a huge literature related to stochastic regressors in various aspects. In this paper, a historical perspective on some of the works related to stochastic regressor is being tried to pen down based on literature search.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is characterized by diverse patterns of social interaction, communication, and behavior. This study explores the application of clustering and stochastic migration models to visualize and understand the social and neural connectivity patterns associated with autism. The clustering model, with its strong internal connections and limited external connections, mirrors the tight-knit social groups and communication barriers often observed in individuals with autism. In contrast, the stochastic model, characterized by more dispersed connections and greater adaptability, represents the variability and flexibility seen in social interactions across typical individuals. By comparing these models, we can gain deeper insights into the unique challenges and strengths of individuals with autism, highlighting the importance of personalized interventions. Additionally, these models provide a visual framework for understanding the differences in brain connectivity patterns observed in autism, with implications for both behavioral and neural correlates. This study underscores the value of computational models in advancing our understanding of autism and guiding effective support strategies.

Analyzing the records of Advanced LIGO and Virgo gravitational observatories, we found a specific time-domain asymmetry inherent only to the signals of their gravitational detectors. Experiments with different periodic signals, Gaussian and non-Gaussian noises, made it possible to conclude that the noise of gravitational detectors is an unusual mixture of signals. We also developed a specialized Pearson correlation analyzer to recognize the gravitational-wave events. It turned out that the LIGO detectors’ output signals include a significant (– 6 dB) component, which has the properties of records of reliably recognized gravitational waves. It allows us to argue that the gravitational background noise is largely due to the processes of merging astronomical objects. Since the specific signal is registered by the detectors continuously, we can consider the sub-kilohertz band gravitational oscillations field as detected. Our analysis method also allows us to estimate the contribution of the gravitational background component to the total signal energy. With its help, it will be possible not only to provide the radio-frequency estimation of the magnitude of gravitational disturbances but also, possibly, to construct a map of the gravitational noise of the sky.

In this study we discuss critical issues in modelling the structure and function of lymph nodes (LNs), with emphasis on how LN physiology is related to its multi-scale structural organization. In addition to macroscopic domains such as B-cell follicles and the T cell zone, there are vascular networks which play a key role in the delivery of information to the inner parts of the LN, i.e., the conduit and blood microvascular networks. We propose object-oriented computational algorithms to model the 3D geometry of the fibroblastic reticular cell (FRC) network and the microvasculature. Assuming that a conduit cylinder is densely packed with collagen fibers, the computational flow study predicted that the diffusion should be a dominating process in mass transport than convective flow. The geometry models are used to analyze the lymph flow properties through the conduit network in unperturbed- and damaged states of the LN. The analysis predicts that elimination of up to 60–90 % of edges is required to stop the lymph flux. This result suggests a high degree of functional robustness of the network.

Traumatic Brain Injury represents a significant public health concern due to its role in traumatic death and disability, often caused by head impacts or rapid accelerations. Despite advancements in Finite Element Head Models, existing models primarily represent adult males, neglecting anatomical and physiological differences between genders and age groups. Additionally, the mechanistic roles of specific intracranial tissues, such as the dura mater, have conventionally been overlooked. To better understand the mechanical behavior of the brain and its injured regions in the context of TBI, including the dura mater, this study proposes the development of a Female Finite Element Head Model. This model, representative of a middle-aged female subject, was developed using medical image-derived geometry and finite element modeling techniques. The validation results demonstrate a similarity between the numerical displacement curves and those obtained experimentally. In the model with dura mater, the numerical results show analogous behavior to the experimental results, despite minimal variations in the amplitude of the curves. These advancements highlight the significance of including the dura mater in biomechanical brain modeling. Incorporating the dura mater in Finite Element Head Models produces more realistic results than models without it. This emphasizes the importance of enhancing biomechanical models to better represent anatomical complexity.

The second article in the series presents the application of the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method to modelling of batch crystallisation in stirred tanks. A methodology to integrate the population balance equations (PBE) in parallel and independently from the Navier-Stokes equations is demonstrated. The benefits of the proposed methodology in terms of computational requirements, accuracy and availability of the crystal size distribution are discussed. The specific formulation of the SPH equations where the resulting system of ordinary differential equations is solved using the weighted contributions rather than numerically by solving a linear system of equations allows for massive parallelisation and a very loose coupling of the population balance and the fluid dynamics. It has been demonstrated, that the population balance equations can be solved on a Shared Memory Architecture (SMA) system using the OpenMP interface while the fluid dynamics equations being computed independently on a General Purpose Graphics Processing Unit (GPGPU) using the NVidia CUDA technology. This way, a significant portion of the computational overhead due to the large number of additional transport equations resulting from the discretisation of the population balance was removed: the SPH simulation coupled with 200 population balance equations was only 40% slower compared to SPH-only simulation. Two methods for the solution of population balance equations that preserve full crystal size distribution were implemented: discretised population balance (DPB) and method of characteristics (MOCH). The DPB equations are solved using the high-resolution finite-volume method with flux limiter and the effect of a large number of different flux limiters have been investigated. Both methods were validated using the case studies from the literature where an analytical solution can be derived. The developed models were applied to a numerical solution of coupled computational fluid dynamics and population balance equations to model a batch crystallization process. The effect of the hydrodynamics on the local temperature/supersaturation and the resulting crystal size distribution was captured and compared to the ideal mixing case. The simulation results from the DPB and MOCH methods were compared in terms of computational requirements and accuracy and MOCH selected as computationally more efficient and accurate.

In this paper we present a successful implementation of the Hindmarsh–Rose model within a SC environment. The merits of the proposed approach are design simplicity, due to stochastic computing, and the ease of implementation. Simulation results showed that the approximation achieved is equivalent to introducing a noise source into the original model. A study for the level of noise introduced, according to the number of bits in the stochastic sequence, has been performed. Additionally, we demonstrate that such an approach, even though it is noisy, it reproduces the behaviour of biological systems, which are intrinsically noisy. It is also demonstrated that a speedup of x2 compared to biological systems is easily achievable, with a very small number of gates, thus paving the road for the in silico implementation of large neuron networks.

Semantic segmentation is a very popular topic in modern computer vision and it has applications to many fields. Researchers proposed a variety of architectures over time, but the most common ones exploit an encoder-decoder structure that aims to capture the semantics of the image and it low level features. The encoder uses convolutional layers, in general with a stride larger than one, to extract the features, while the decoder recreates the image by upsampling an using skip connections with the first layers. In this work, we use DeepLab as architecture to test the effectiveness of creating an ensemble of networks by randomly changing the activation functions inside the network multiple times. We also use different backbone networks in our DeepLab to validate our findings. We manage to reach a dice coefficient of 0.888, and a mean Intersection over Union (mIoU) of 0.825, in the competitive Kvasir-SEG dataset. Results in skin detection also confirm the performance of the proposed ensemble, which is ranked first with respect to other state-of-the-art approaches (including HardNet) in a large set of testing datasets. The developed code will be available at https://github.com/LorisNanni.

In this paper, we introduce the evolve-then-filter (EF) regularization method for reduced order modeling of convection-dominated stochastic systems. The standard Galerkin projection reduced order model (G-ROM) yield numerical oscillations in a convection-dominated regime. The evolve-then-filter reduced order model (EF-ROM) aims at the numerical stabilization of the standard G-ROM, which uses explicit ROM spatial filter to regularize various terms in the reduced order model (ROM). Our numerical results based on a stochastic Burgers equation with linear multiplicative noise. It shows that the EF-ROM is significantly better results than G-ROM.

This study purposes the use of plug-in electric vehicles for demand side management (DSM) considering uncertainties in demand as well as uncertainties due to mobility of PEV to mitigate peak demand. The solution also seeks to reduce electric cost in addition to reducing the effects of greenhouse gases. In recent years DSM using distributed storage system such as battery energy management system (BESS) and plugged-in electric vehicles (PEV) have become very prevalent with most implementations resorting to deterministic load forecast. These methods do not consider the potential growth in demand making their solutions less robust. In this study we propose a real-time density demand forecast and stochastic optimization for robust operation of PEV for a building. This method accounts for demand uncertainties in addition to uncertainties in mobile energy storage as found in PEV, making the resulting solution robust as compared to the deterministic case. A case study on a real site in South Korea is used for verification and testing. The proposed study is verified and tested against existing algorithms. The result verifies the effectiveness of the proposed approach

A Demand-side management technique are deployed along with battery energy-storage systems (BESSs) to lower the electricity cost by mitigating the peak load of a building. Most of the existing methods rely on manual operation of the BESS, or even an elaborate building energy-management system resorting to a deterministic method that is susceptible to unforeseen growth in demand. In this study we propose a real-time optimal operating strategy for BESS based on density demand forecast and stochastic optimization. This method takes into consideration uncertainties in demand when accounting for an optimal BESS schedule, making it robust compared to the deterministic case. The proposed method is verified and tested against existing algorithms. Data obtained from a real site in South Korea is used for verification and testing. The results show that the proposed method is effective, even for the cases where the forecasted demand deviates from the observed demand

This study presents a detailed computational investigation aimed at identifying and evaluating potential small organic molecular scaffolds as inhibitors targeting the Pks13 protein, a critical enzyme in tuberculosis (TB) drug discovery. Our approach integrates multiple computational techniques, including quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modelling, compound library generation, molecular docking, biological activity prediction, re-evaluation of screened compounds, molecular dynamics (MD) analysis, and binding free energy estimation using the MM-GBSA approach. We developed a robust QSAR model using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques, specifically tailored to predict the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values of potential anti-TB agents. This model demonstrated excellent predictive performance, validated through rigorous internal and external validation procedures. Through molecular docking simulations, we identified five promising inhibitors Ethyl (R,Z)-2-(2-((2-chlorobenzyl) oxy)benzylidene)-5-(4-chlorophenyl)-7-methyl-3-oxo-2,3-dihydro-5H-thiazolo [3,2-a] pyrimidine-6-carboxylate (PKD1), (7R,9aR)-7-(2-hydroxyphenyl)-4-(2-methoxyphenyl)-3-methyl-7,8,9,9a-tetrahydroisoxazolo[5,4-b]quinolin-5(6H)-one (PKD2), (7-(4-methoxy phenyl)-2-methyl-3-phenylpyrazolo[1,5-a]pyrimidin-5-yl)(4-(3-(trifluoromethyl)phenyl) piperazin-1-yl)methanone (PKD3), (8S,10S)-10-(((2R,4S,5S,6S)-4-amino-5-hydroxy-6-methyl tetrahydro-2H-pyran-2-yl)oxy)-6,8,11-trihydroxy-8-(2-hydroxyacetyl)-1-methoxy-7,8,9,10-tetra-hydrotetracene-5,12-dione (PKD4), 3-(3,4-dimethylphenyl)-5-((2-(4-fluorophenyl)-2-oxoethyl) thio)-6-phenyl-2-thioxo-2,3,5,7a-tetrahydrothiazolo[4,5-d]pyrimidin-7(6H)-one (PKD5)with high binding affinities, prioritizing them based on their binding energies. These selected compounds were further assessed for their biological activity predictions, guiding the selection of candidates for experimental validation. Subsequent re-evaluation using absolute binding free energy estimation and MD simulations provided insights into the stability and dynamics of the protein-ligand complexes over time. Our findings highlighted the potential of identified compounds as stable binders within the Pks13-TE domain binding pocket, underscoring their viability as drug candidates. Additionally, binding free energy analysis using MM-GBSA reaffirmed the strong affinity of the proposed compounds towards Pks13. Our integrated computational approach offers a systematic and detailed framework for the identification and characterization of potential Pks13 inhibitors with specific relevance to TB drug discovery.

In the present work, a predictive modelling and optimization with the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system(ANFIS) modelling of mechanical properties of laser-coated NB/SiC/Ni welds was studied based on Taguchi design by laser cladding. An ANFIS model based on a Sugeno type fuzzy inference system was developed for predicting the hardness properties of SiC/BN/Ni welds by laser cladding with experimental data required for network training and prediction. Based on analysis of variance, three important factors were taken as inputs for the fuzzy logic inferences, while the hardness properties was taken as the output of the ANFIS. The microstructure of welds were analysed using scanning electron microscopy with an energy dispersive X-Ray spectrometer. Highly developed leaf-like dendrites and eutectic crystals were found in some areas of the melting zone for the BN/SiC/Ni weld, which was significantly hardened. The ANFIS model based on Taguchi's design provides a better pattern of response because the predicted and experimental values were highly similar. As a result, a satisfactory result was achieved between the predicted and experimental values of hardness in laser-coated NB/SiC/Ni welds, whereby the success and validity of the method was verified.

The classical Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model is globally stable and uniformly persistent. However, in real-life biosystems extinction of species due to stochastic effects is possible. In this paper, we consider the classical Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model under stochastic perturbations. For this model, using an analytical technique based on the direct Lyapunov method and a development of the ideas of R.Z. Khasminskii, we find the precise sufficient conditions for the stochastic extinction of one and both species and the precise necessary conditions for the stochastic system persistence. The stochastic extinction occurs via a process known as the stabilization by noise of the Khasminskii type, and, in order to establish the sufficient conditions for extinction, we found the conditions for the stabilization. The analytical results are illustrated by numerical simulations. {\bf Keywords:} stochastic perturbations, white noise, Ito's stochastic differential equation, the Lyapunov functions method, stability in probability, stabilization by noise, stochastic extinction, persistence.

Energy system models have become indispensable to shape future energy systems by providing insights into different trajectories. However, sustainable systems with high shares of renewable energy are characterized by growing cross-sectoral interdependencies and decentralized structures. To capture important properties of increasingly complex energy systems, sophisticated and flexible modelling tools are needed. At the same time open science becomes increasingly important in energy system modelling. This paper presents the Open Energy Modelling Framework (oemof) as a novel approach in energy system modelling, representation and analysis. The framework forms a toolbox to construct comprehensive energy system models and has been published open source under a free license. With a collaborative development based on open processes the framework seeks for a maximum level of participation and transparency to facilitate open science principles in energy system modelling. Based on a generic graph based description of energy systems it is well suited to flexibly model complex cross-sectoral systems and incorporate various modelling approaches. This makes the framework a multi-purpose modelling environment for modelling and analyzing different systems ranging from an urban to a transnational scale.

This study explores the potential trajectories of human civilization influenced by the development and competition of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) systems. Using a system of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), we model the probability density function representing the state of civilization in a phase space defined by prosperity and knowledge. The model incorporates diffusion, growth, saturation, and drift terms, alongside stochastic noise to reflect the uncertainties and random fluctuations in AI impacts.The simulation results are visualized in a probability density graph, revealing the likelihood of various outcomes ranging from extinction and regression, to prosperity and technological advancement. The analysis highlights the balanced prospects of human future, with significant probabilities in both positive and negative directions. Positive scenarios suggest potential for increased prosperity and knowledge, emphasizing the importance of effective AI management and international cooperation. Conversely, the notable risks of regression and extinction underline the need for strategic interventions to mitigate adverse impacts. Our findings stress the stochastic nature of future developments and the critical role of adaptive and flexible policies in steering human civilization towards favorable outcomes. This study provides a simple yet comprehensive framework for understanding the complex dynamics at play and underscores the importance of proactive strategies in the age of AI.

The container relocation problem (CRP) is one of the important topics in container terminals, which aims to find the optimal sequence of movements to minimize the total number of relocations needed to retrieve all the containers within a bay according to a given specific layout and retrieval order. However, determining such an order may be difficult due to uncertainty. Various CRP solution methods proposed so far show a common pitfall concerning the complexity of the solving process, whose scale grows exponentially with the number of containers. Considering the retrieval operation process of the inbound containers in a bay consists of several operation rounds, this paper focuses on the real-time operation scenario of each round to minimize the actual number of relocations during the pick-up process, i.e., starting from the initial layout of the bay, we minimize the sum of the incremental number of blocking containers due to the layout change and the number of reallocated containers unrelated to the target container. We present a heuristic algorithm (called SPFH) based on the three rules (LL, MSS, and FSS), considering the adjustment of the pick-up order of containers. Numerical experiments on a set of instances generated from the literature are performed. The proposed methodology excels in both execution efficiency and solution quality and is capable of solving instances that were impossible to solve before. This also makes our methods appealing for being applied in practice. The source codes are available at https://github.com/zhou-sf/rt-scrp.

Iterative Stochastic decoding is an alternative to standard fixed-point decoding of Low-density parity check codes (LDPC) to reduce inter-node routing. In this paper, we propose a Flexible Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA)-Based Stochastic decoding (SD) hardware architecture for LDPC codes in the Fifth-Generation (5G) New Radio (NR) Standard that supports decoding of set of various code rates. This decoder’s runtime flexibility is desirable to switch a better performing code rate automatically based on the channel conditions without the extra time needed for reprogramming of FPGA. An offline design method is implemented to generate the hardware description language (HDL) code description of the decoder for the required code-rate set, which is further synthesized and integrated into the Xilinx Kintex-7 series FPGA board to determine the hardware resource utilisation and processing throughput. The Synopsys design tools were employed during both the simulation and synthesis stages, in combination with TSMC 65-nm CMOS standard cell technology, to facilitate comparative analysis. Compared with state-of-the-art designs, the proposed architecture reduces hardware utilization by up to 26% and achieved energy efficiency by 52%.

The need to find the global minimum in multi-dimensional functions is a critical problem in many fields of science and technology. Effectively solving this problem requires the creation of initial solution estimates, which are subsequently used by the optimization algorithm to search for the best solution in the solution space. In the context of this article, a novel approach to generating the initial solution distribution is presented which is applied to a genetic optimization algorithm. Using the k-means clustering algorithm, a distribution based on data similarity is created. This helps in generating initial estimates that may be more tailored to the problem. Additionally, the proposed method employs a rejection sampling algorithm to discard samples that do not yield better solution estimates in the optimization process. This allows the algorithm to focus on potentially optimal solutions, thus improving its performance. Finally, the article presents experimental results from the application of this approach to various optimization problems, providing the scientific community with a new method for addressing this significant problem.

Machinery parts gradually wear out over time due to regular usage. To improve machinery health and prevent critical issues, a reliable prognosis framework can be implemented by monitoring the behaviour of machinery parts and issuing warnings before they reach a critical state. To achieve this, vibration data from roller bearings experiencing various fault conditions have been collected. Different techniques from the literature were combined to analyze the distinct configurations in the vibration data sets and identify the main defects in roller bearings. The significant features extracted from this analysis were then used to create optimized stochastic model equations, separately regressing inner and outer race fault features to healthy bearing features under random conditions. These models can help engineers design more dependable systems, optimize their performance, and minimize the risk of failures and downtime.

In this paper we consider a failed cold standby systems and obtain some stochastic bounds on the idle time of such systems. It is assumed that, at a time t the failure of a cold standby system is observed, but the actual time of the failure is a time before t. The idle time of the inactive cold standby system is measured as the time between the exact time of failure, which is a random variable, and time t. We use the idle times of the components of the system to obtain lower and upper bounds on the lifetime of the standby system to which they are assembled. We bring some examples to show that the results and the conditions imposed to get them are achievable.

A thermal load dispatch problem minimizes the number of objectives viz operating cost and emission of gaseous pollutants together while allocating the power demand among the committed generating units subject to physical and technological system constraints. A stochastic thermal load dispatch problem is undertaken while taking into consideration, the uncertainties, errors in data measurements and nature of load demand which is random. Owing to uncertain load demand, variance due to mismatch of power demand termed as risk, is considered as another conflicting objective to be minimized. Generally multiobjective problems generate a set of non-inferior solutions are generated and supplied to a decision maker to select the best solution from the set of non-inferior solutions. This paper proposes opposition-based greedy heuristic search (OGHS) method to generate a set of non-inferior solutions. Opposition-based learning is applied to generate initial population to select good candidates. Migration to maintain diversity in the set of feasible solutions is also based on opposition-based learning. Mutation strategy is implemented by perturbing the genes heuristically in parallel and better one solution is sought for each member. Feasible solutions are achieved heuristically by modifying the generation-schedules in such a manner that violation of operating generation limits are avoided. The OGHS method is simple to implement and provides global solutions derived from the randomness of the population generated without tuning of parameters. Decision maker exploits fuzzy membership functions to decide the final decision. Validity of the method has been demonstrated by analysing systems in different scenarios consisting of six generators and forty generators.

It is quite easy to stochastically distort an original count variable to obtain a new count variable with relatively more variability than in the original variable. Many popular overdispersion models (variance greater than mean) can indeed be obtained by mixtures, compounding or randomlystopped sums. There is no analogous stochastic mechanism for the construction of underdispersed count variables (variance less than mean), starting from an original count distribution of interest. This work proposes a generic method to stochastically distort an original count variable to obtain a new count variable with relatively less variability than in the original variable. The proposed mechanism, termed condensation, attracts probability masses from the quantiles in the tails of the original distribution and redirect them toward quantiles around the expected value. If the original distribution can be simulated, then the simulation of variates from a condensed distribution is straightforward. Moreover, condensed distributions have a simple mean-parametrization, a characteristic useful in a count regression context. An application to the negative binomial distribution resulted in a distribution allowing under, equi and overdispersion. In addition to graphical insights, fields of applications of special cases of condensed Poisson and condensed negative binomial distributions were pointed out as an indication of the potential of condensation for a flexible analysis of count data

Dams design and their operation cause strong environmental alteration and therefore a long-term debate is ongoing for the scale of these projects. At the same time, the concept of Environmental Flow Assessment (EFA) is a crucial element of modified ecosystems featuring large infrastructure such as dams and reservoirs for mitigating potential environmental degradation while they operate. Nowadays, integrated scientific frameworks are required to quantify the risks caused by large infrastructure. Through the use of stochastic analysis, it is possible to quantify these uncertainties, and present a solution that incorporates long-term persistence and environmental sustainability into a balanced reservoir simulation model. In this work, an attempt is made to determine a benchmark reservoir size incorporating hydrological and ecological criteria though stochastic analysis. The primary goal is to ensure the best possible conditions for the ecosystem, and then secondarily to allow a steady supply of water for other uses. Using a synthetic timeseries based on historical inputs, it is possible to determine and preserve essential statistical characteristics of a river’s streamflow, and use these to detect the optimal reservoir capacity that maximizes environmental and local water demand reliability.

This work (in two parts) will review the recently developed predictive modeling methodology called “4th-BERRU-PM” and its applicability to energy systems as exemplified by an illustrative application to the Polyethylene-Reflected Plutonium (acronym: PERP) OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark. The acronym 4th-BERRU-PM designates the “Fourth-Order Best-Estimate Results with Reduced Uncertainties Predictive Modeling” methodology, which yields best-estimate results with reduced uncertainties for the first fourth-order moments (mean values, covariance, skewness, and kurtosis) of the optimally predicted posterior distribution of model results and calibrated model parameters. The 4th-BERRU-PM uses the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) principle to incorporate fourth-order experimental and computational information, including fourth (and higher) order sensitivities of computed model responses to model parameters, thus incorporating, as particular cases, the results previously predicted by the second-order predictive modeling methodology 2nd-BERRU-PM, and vastly generalizing the results produced by extant data assimilation and data adjustment procedures. The 4th-BERRU-PM methodology encompasses the scopes of high-order sensitivity analysis (SA), uncertainty quantification (UQ), data assimilation (DA) and model calibration (MC). The application of the 4th-BERRU-PM methodology to energy systems is illustrated by means of the above-mentioned OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark, which is modeled using the neutron transport Boltzmann equation involving 21976 imprecisely known parameters, the solution of which is representative of “large-scale computations.” The model result (“response”) of interest is the leakage of neutrons through the outer surface of this spherical benchmark, which can be computed numerically and measured experimentally. Part 1 of this work illustrates the impact of high-order sensitivities, in conjunction with parameter standard deviations of various magnitudes, on the determination of the expected value and variance of the computed response in terms of the first four moments of the distribution of the uncertain model parameters. Part 2 of this work will illustrate the capabilities of the 4th-BERRU-PM methodology for combining computational and experimental information, up to and including forth-order sensitivities and distributional moments, for producing best-estimate values for the predicted responses and model parameters while reducing their accompanying uncertainties.

Recognizing trust as a pivotal element for success within Human-Robot Collaboration (HRC) environments, this article examines its nature, exploring the different dimensions of trust, analysing the factors affecting each of them, and proposing alternatives for trust measurement. To do so, we designed an experimental procedure involving 50 participants interacting with a modified 'Inspector game' while we monitor their brain, electrodermal, respiratory, and ocular activities. This procedure allowed us to map dispositional (static individual baseline) and learned (dynamic, based on prior interactions) dimensions of trust considering both demographic and psychophysiological aspects. Our findings challenge traditional assumptions regarding the dispositional dimension of trust and establish clear evidence that the first interactions are critical for the trust-building process and the temporal evolution of trust. By identifying more significant psychophysiological features for trust detection and underscoring the importance of individualized trust assessment, this research contributes to understanding the nature of trust in HRC. Such insights are crucial for enabling more seamless human-robot interaction in collaborative environments.

A non-steady state mathematical model of amino acid (phenylalanine (Phe)) and mineral salt (NaCl) solution separation by neutralization dialysis (ND) carried out in a batch mode is proposed. The model takes into account the characteristics of membranes (thickness, ion-exchange capacity and conductivity) and solutions (concentration, composition), as well as the flow rate of the solution in the dialyzer compartments. As compared to previously developed models, the new one considers the local equilibrium of Phe protolysis reactions in solutions and membranes and, also, the transport of all the phenylalanine forms (zwitterionic, positively and negatively charged) through membranes. A series of experiments on ND demineralization of NaCl and Phe mixed solution was carried out. In order to minimize Phe losses, the solution pH in the desalination compartment was controlled by changing the concentrations of the solutions in the acid and alkali compartments of the ND cell. The validity of the model was verified by comparison of simulated and experimental time dependencies of solution electric conductivity and pH, as well as the concentration of Na+, Cl– ions and Phe species in the desalination compartment. Based on the simulation results, the role of Phe transport mechanisms in the losses of this amino acid during ND was discussed.

Nodes in wireless sensor networks (WSN) are characterized particularly by their limited power and memory capabilities. Limited memory is an important parameter as it defines the size of the operating system and the processing code. As established previously, energy and memory efficiency is the most important evaluation factors of WSNs as they are directly related to data loss and network lifetime. However, based on our simulation results, memory efficiency determines the selection or abandon of nodes by the botmaster for the propagation of bots in an IoT infrastructure. Consequently, the node’s memory efficiency determined the spread of bots in the network and provides defense actors with an insight of the botmaster behavior for mitigation of the attack. Conventional botnet propagation and mitigation models did not consider the impact of node’s memory efficiency in the IoT platform. To address this gap, we build IoT-SIEF, a novel propagation model with forensic capability that will analyze command and control propagation behavior based on the perspective of the node’s memory efficiency. IoT-SIEF model used to explore the dynamics of propagation using numerical simulation with more than 50% outperform other models in mitigating the number of secondary bots. Consequently, it can serve as a basis for assisting the planning, design, and defense of such networks from the investigator's point of view.

This paper focus on the modeling and time-domain analyzing method of piecewise-smooth fractional-order circuit systems. Firstly, an analytical framework is constructed based on a generalized piecewise-smooth two-port impedance network model, which takes the topological characteristics of Dickson type switched-capacitor converters (SCCs) as examples, and considers the fractional-order characteristics of class-2 X7R ceramic capacitors, which are widely used in SCCs. Secondly, the time-domain analyzing method for such a piecewise-smooth fractional-order circuit system is developed, numerical solutions are obtained, and the influence of the fractional-order capacitor on the power conversion efficiency of the system are revealed. Finally, in order to validate the analysis, both numerical simulation and experiments are provided in the work, the results of which confirm that, the proposed fractional-order analytical framework can capture the power loss mechanism of piecewise-smooth fractional-order circuit systems more effectively than the traditional integer-order based approach, thus benefiting the design of circuit systems.

We study epidemic spreading in complex networks by a multiple random walker approach. Each walker performs an independent simple Markovian random walk on a complex undirected (ergodic) random graph where we focus on Barabási-Albert (BA), Erdös-Rényi (ER) and Watts-Strogatz (WS) types. Both, walkers and nodes can be either susceptible (S) or infected and infectious (I) representing their states of health. Susceptible nodes may be infected by visits of infected walkers, and susceptible walkers may be infected by visiting infected nodes. No direct transmission of the disease among walkers (or among nodes) is possible. This model mimics a large class of diseases such as Dengue and Malaria with transmission of the disease via vectors (mosquitos). Infected walkers may die during the time span of their infection introducing an additional compartment D of dead walkers. Infected nodes never die and always recover from their infection after a random finite time. This assumption is based on the observation that infectious vectors (mosquitos) are not ill and do not die from the infection. The infectious time spans of nodes and walkers, and the survival times of infected walkers, are represented by independent random variables. We derive stochastic evolution equations for the mean-field compartmental populations with mortality of walkers and delayed transitions among the compartments. From linear stability analysis, we derive the basic reproduction numbers R M , R 0 with and without mortality, respectively, and prove that R M < R 0 . For R M , R 0 > 1 the healthy state is unstable whereas for zero mortality a stable endemic equilibrium exists (independent of the initial conditions) which we obtained explicitly. We observe that the solutions of the random walk simulations in the considered networks agree well with the mean-field solutions for strongly connected graph topologies, whereas less well for weakly connected structures and for diseases with high mortality. Our model has applications beyond epidemic dynamics, for instance in the kinetics of chemical reactions, the propagation of contaminants, wood fires, among many others.

This article deals with a finite-source stock-dependent stochastic inventory system with heterogeneous servers and retrial facility. The system can store up to S number of items, and the lifetime of each item follows an exponential distribution. The primary customers arrive in a finite waiting hall from a finite source and get service from the multi-channel (c-heterogeneous servers). The customer’s arrival rate depends on the present stock level. Those customers who arrive while the waiting hall is full enter into the finite orbit. Also, customers in the waiting hall can become impatient and enter the orbit. The (s,Q) ordering policy is adopted for the replenishment of stocks. In the steady state, the joint probability distribution of a number of items in the inventory, busy servers, customers in the waiting hall, and orbit is computed. The comparative numerical analysis of heterogeneous and homogeneous servers on the expected total cost, the average number of customers in the waiting hall and orbit, the fraction of successful retrial rate, and the average impatient customer rate are also carried out.

Continuous greenhouse gas emissions are causing global warming and impacting the habitats of many animals. Researchers in the field of electric power are making efforts to mitigate this situation. Operating and maintaining the power grid in an economic, low-carbon, and stable is challenging. To address the issue, we propose a grid dispatching technique that combines prediction technology, reinforcement learning, and optimization technology. Prediction technology can forecast future power demand and solar power generation, while reinforcement learning and optimization technology can make charging and discharging decisions for energy storage devices based on current and future grid conditions. In the power system, the aggregation of distributed energy resources increases uncertainty, particularly due to the fluctuating generation of renewable energy. This requires the use of advanced predictive control techniques to ensure long-term economic and decarbonization goals. In this paper, we present a real-time dispatching framework that integrates deep learning-based prediction, reinforcement learning-based decision-making, and stochastic optimization techniques. The framework can rapidly adapt to target uncertainty caused by various factors in real-time data distribution and control processes. The proposed framework achieved global Champion in the NeurIPS Challenge 2022 competition and demonstrated its effectiveness in practical scenarios of intelligent building energy management.

A plant’s health and productivity is influenced by its associated microbes. Although the common microbiome is often thought to be the most influential, significant numbers of rare or uncommon microbes (eg. specialized endosymbionts) may also play an important role in the health and productivity of certain plants in certain environments. To help identify rare/specialized bacteria and fungi in the most important angiosperm plants, we contrasted microbiomes of the shoots, roots and rhizospheres of Arabidopsis, Brachypodium, maize, wheat, sugarcane, rice, tomato, coffee, common bean, cassava, soybean, switchgrass, sunflower, Brachiaria, barley, sorghum, and pea. Plants were grown inside sealed jars on sterile sand or field soil. About 95% and 86% of fungal and bacterial diversity inside plants was uncommon, however judging by read abundance, up to half of the mycobiome consists of uncommon fungal cells, while less than 11% of bacterial endophytes are rare. Uncommon seed transmitted microbiomes consisted mostly of Proteobacteria, Firmicutes, Bacteriodetes, Ascomycetes and Basidiomycetes that most heavily colonized shoots, to a lesser extent roots and least of all rhizospheres. Soil served as a more diverse source of rare microbes than seeds, replacing or excluding the majority of the uncommon seed transmitted microbiome. With the rarest microbes, their colonization pattern could either be the result of stringent biotic filtering by most plants, or uneven/stochastic inoculum distribution in seeds or soil. Several strong plant-microbe associations were observed such as seed transmission to shoots, roots and/or rhizospheres of Sarocladium zeae (maize), Penicillium (pea and Phaseolus), and Curvularia (sugarcane), while robust bacterial colonization from cassava field soil occurred with the cyanobacteria Leptolyngbya into Arabidopsis and Panicum roots, and Streptomyces into cassava roots. Some abundant microbes such as Sakaguchia in rice shoots or Vermispora in Arabidopsis roots appeared in no other samples, suggesting they were infrequent, stochastically deposited propagules from either soil or seed (impossible to know based on the available data). Future experiments with culturing and cross inoculation of these microbes between plants may help us better understand host preferences and their role in plant productivity, perhaps leading to their use in crop microbiome engineering and enhancement of agricultural production.

In this paper, we propose a new mathematical model based on the association between susceptible and recovered individual, where the association between susceptible and recovered individual is disturbed by white noise. This model is based on demographic changes and is used for long term behavior. We study the stability of equilibria of the deterministic model and prove the conditions for the extinction of diseases. Then, we investigate and obtain the critical condition of the stochastic epidemic model for the extinction and the permanence in mean of the disease with the white noise. To verify our results, we present some numerical simulations for real data related to disease.

The vibration feature of weak gear fault is often covered in strong background noise, which makes it necessary to establish weak feature enhancement methods. Among the enhancement methods, stochastic resonance (SR) has the unique advantage of transferring noise energy to weak signals and has a great application prospection in weak signal extraction. But the traditional SR potential model cannot form a richer potential structure and may lead to system instability when the noise is too great. To overcome these shortcomings, the article presents a periodic potential underdamping stochastic resonance (PPUSR) method after investigating the potential function and system signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). In addition, system parameters are further optimized by using ant colony algorithm. Through simulation and gear experiments, the effectiveness of the proposed method was verified. We concluded that compared with the traditional underdamped stochastic resonance (TUSR) method, the PPUSR method had a higher recognition degree and better frequency response capability.