Accurate and consistent rainfall observations are vital for climatological studies in support of better planning and decision making. However, estimation of accurate spatial rainfall is limited by sparse rain gauge distributions. Satellite rainfall products can thus potentially play a role in spatial rainfall estimation but their skill and uncertainties need to be under-stood across spatial-time scales. This study aimed at assessing the temporal and spatial performance of seven satellite products (TARCAT (Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT) African Rainfall Climatology And Time series), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM-3B43), Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Morphing (CMORPH), the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks- Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) using gridded (0.05o) rainfall data over East Africa for 15 years(1998-2012). The products’ error distributions were qualitatively compared with large scale horizontal winds (850 mb) and elevation patterns with respect to corresponding rain gauge data for each month during the ‘long’ (March-May) and ‘short’ (October-December) rainfall seasons. For validation only rainfall means extracted from 284 rain gauge stations were used, from which qualitative analysis using continuous statistics of Root Mean Squared Difference, Standard deviations, Correlations, coefficient of determinations (from scatter plots) were used to evaluate the products’ performance. Results revealed rainfall variability dependence on wind flows and modulated by topographic influences. The products’ errors showed seasonality and dependent on rainfall intensity and topography. Single sensor and coarse resolution products showed lowest performance on high ground areas. All the products showed low skills in retrieving rainfall during ‘short’ rainfall season when orographic processes were dominant. CHIRPS, CMORPH and TRMM performed well, with TRMM showing the best performance in both seasons. There is need to reduce products’ errors before applications.

Quantum gravity theories rely on a minimal measurable length for their formulations, which clashes with the classical formulation of the uncertainty principle and with Lorentz invariance from general relativity. These incompatibilities led to the development of the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP) from string theories and its various modifications. GUP and covariant formulations of the uncertainty principle are discussed, together with implications for space-time quantization.

This research aimed to investigate the relationship between climate policy uncertainty (CPU), clean energy (ENERGY), carbon emission allowance prices (CARBON), and Bitcoin returns (BTC) for the period from August 2012 to August 2022. The empirical analysis strategies utilized in this study included the Fourier Bootstrap ARDL long-term coefficient estimator, Fourier Granger Causality, and Fourier Toda Yamamoto Causality methods. Following the confirmation of cointegration among the variables, we observed a positive relationship between BTC and CARBON, a positive relationship between BTC and CPU, and a negative relationship between BTC and ENERGY. In terms of causal associations, we identified one-way causality running from CARBON to BTC, BTC to CPU, and BTC to the ENERGY variable. The study underscores the potential benefits and revenue opportunities for investors seeking diversified investment strategies in light of climate change concerns. Furthermore, it suggests actionable strategies for policymakers, such as implementing carbon taxes and educational campaigns, to foster a transition towards clean energy sources within the cryptocurrency mining sector and thereby mitigate environmental impacts.

Global warming may increase the potential evapotranspiration (Etp), thereby affecting the amount of clean water resources available in a region. In this study, the systematic biases in temperature outputs of 24 global climate models (GCMs) under 3 emission scenarios are corrected by using 8 bias correction methods. The trend of Etp in Yangzi River Delta in the 21st century is projected by using 4 Etp calculation formulas. The uncertainty of the projections is estimated and decomposed by using multi-way analysis of variance. The influence of uncertainty on the projected change signal is quantified by using the signal-to-noise ratio. The results show that, relative to the reference period (1971~2000), the annual mean daily Etp in Yangzi River Delta will increase by 0.14~0.17mm/d during the period 2021~2050 and by 0.21~0.41mm/d during the period 2061~2090, respectively. During 2021~2050, the uncertainty of Etp increase projections is dominantly contributed by the main effects of GCM (63%) and Etp calculation formula (24%). During 2061~2090, it is mainly contributed by the main effect of GCM (36%), followed by the main effects of emission scenario (34%) and Etp calculation formula (18%). The increase projections of Etp are generally reliable and robust during the two projection periods.

In this paper, a continuous power management for a decentralized DC microgrid (DCMG) is proposed to achieve voltage regulation and power balance even under system uncertainty and voltage sensor failure. The DCMG system achieves a continuous power management through only the primary controller to reduce the computational burden of each power agent. To enhance the reliability and resilience of the DCMG system under voltage sensor failure, a DC bus voltage (DCV) sensor fault detection algorithm is proposed. In this algorithm, the DCV sensor failure is detected by comparing the measured DCV with the estimated DCV. When the power agent identifies the DCV sensor failure, it changes the operation properly according to the proposed control mode decision algorithm to maintain the stability of the DCMG system. When uncertain conditions such as the power variation of the distributed generations, sudden grid disconnection, DCV sensor failure, electricity price change, and critical battery status occur, the DCMG system is changed to transitional operation modes. These transitional operation modes are employed to transmit the power agent information to other agents without digital communication links (DCLs) and to accomplish power sharing even under such uncertain conditions. In the transitional operation modes of the DCMG system, the DCV levels are temporarily shifted to an appropriate level, enabling each power agent to detect the uncertainty conditions, and subsequently to determine its operation modes based on the DCV levels. Simulation and experimental results under different test conditions confirm the reliability and effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.

The paper examines the various uncertainties encountered in high-frequency trading (HFT) environments and delves into the multiple challenges faced by HFT firms in navigating the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (referred to as the "Dodd-Frank Act"), particularly during the initial stages of its enactment. These challenges include the ambiguity surrounding the definition of HFT, the lack of clarity regarding regulatory requirements and boundaries, inconsistencies in enforcement resulting from deviations in understanding the content, and the absence of detailed descriptions of the Act’s provisions. These hurdles significantly impact not only the daily operations of HFT firms but also pose higher demands on their long-term strategic planning and risk management. Drawing upon the Data, Information, Knowledge, Wisdom, and Purpose (DIKWP) model, this study employs an innovative analytical framework. Through the comprehensive application of conceptual space, cognitive space, and semantic space, it provides a systematic methodology for identifying and analyzing the aforementioned issues. This approach not only aids firms in better comprehending and adhering to complex regulatory requirements but also enables them to explore new business opportunities and competitive advantages while ensuring compliance.

The uncertainty in the secondary path of an Active Noise Control (ANC) headphone affects the waterbed effect and stability of the feedback system. This study focuses on the uncertainty of the secondary path when real users wear headphones, and proposes a new uncertainty constraint based on the measured results of the secondary path transfer function under different wearing conditions of dummy head and limited subjects. This constraint and a cascaded second-order infinite impulse response filter with fixed coefficients are used to formulate a control strategic function, which is optimized by the Improved Grey Wolf Optimizer (IGWO) algorithm to obtain the optimal controller with better noise reduction performance. The proposed method and simulation model are validated based on the experimental test results. The results demonstrate that the safety factor and waterbed suppressing factor contained in the proposed uncertainty constraint ensures more stable noise reduction and effective suppression of the waterbed effect for new subjects without a priori data.

While the foundations of climate science and ethics are well established, fine-grained climate predictions, as well as policy-decisions, are beset with uncertainties. This chapter maps climate uncertainties and classifies them as to their ground, extent and location. A typology of uncertainty is presented, centered along the axes of scientific and moral uncertainty. This typology is illustrated with paradigmatic examples of uncertainty in climate science, climate ethics and climate economics. Subsequently, the chapter discusses the IPCC’s preferred way of representing uncertainties and evaluates its strengths and weaknesses from a risk management perspective. Three general strategies for decision-makers to cope with climate uncertainty are outlined, the usefulness of which largely depends on whether or not decision-makers find themselves in a context of deep uncertainty. The chapter concludes by offering two recommendations to ease the work of policymakers, faced with the various uncertainties engrained in climate discourse.

Einstein was skeptical of part of quantum mechanics, and he believed that Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle did not reflected the full depth of reality. He famously stated, ”God does not play dice with the universe.” However, since quantum mechanics has passed so many experimental tests, most physicists today assume that Einstein was wrong. Nevertheless, we will demonstrate that Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle must be modified to unify gravity with quantum mechanics. This modification leads to the Certainty-Uncertainty principle where the certainty part is strongly linked to gravity. This means Einstein likely was right in his intuition also on this point. The key is to understand that the de Broglie wavelength is not the actual wavelength of matter but merely a derivative of the true matter wavelength, namely the Compton wavelength. Furthermore, one must understand that the gravitational constant, first introduced in 1873, is simply a composite constant needed to rectify the in- complete definition of kilogram mass introduced into Newtonian gravity in 1873.

In the century and a half since Maxwell first conjured his “finite being” which Lord Kelvin subsequently dubbed a “daemon”, researchers have explored the connections between non-equilibrium thermodynamics, entropy, and information theory. In recent years various Thermodynamic Uncertainty Relations (TURs) have been derived to inform upon the relationship between the entropy production and the precision possible in thermodynamic machines and processes. In this paper the recently derived TURs are applied to the hypothetical thermodynamic economy as described by Parker [1]. The TURs define the lower bound on the total entropy production of the economy. Changes in this entropy production rate has consequences on the stability of the economic system and plays a central role in the business cycle. This new perspective has important implications for policy makers, researchers, and other economic actors.

In this paper we establish information theoretical bridges between 1) Thermal Heisenberg uncertainties $\Delta x \Delta p$ (at temperature $T$), and 2) LMC structural quantifiers. After having achieved such purpose, we determine to what an extent our bridges can be extended to both the semi classical and classical realms. Also, we find a strict bound relating a special LMC structural quantifier to quantum uncertainties.

Phenomenon of vacuum fluctuations of virtual particles in high energy physics has been mathematically modeled by a third order differential equation. Aim of present theory is to unravel underlying mathematical equation capable of explaining microscopic phenomenon of vacuum fluctuations. Solution of such a differential equation after applying appropriate boundary conditions gives an acceptable wave function i.e. . Operation of energy and time operator on this wave function proves that these operators do not hold commutative property. Time energy uncertainty principle has been derived by calculating variance of energy and time for the same wave function.

Let $(\Omega, \mu)$, $(\Delta, \nu)$ be measure spaces. Let $(\{f_\alpha\}_{\alpha\in \Omega}, \{\tau_\alpha\}_{\alpha\in \Omega})$ and $(\{g_\beta\}_{\beta\in \Delta}, \{\omega_\beta\}_{\beta\in \Delta})$ be continuous p-Schauder frames for a Banach space $\mathcal{X}$. Then for every $x \in \mathcal{X}\setminus\{0\}$, we show that \begin{align}\label{CUE} \mu(\operatorname{supp}(\theta_f x))^\frac{1}{p} \nu(\operatorname{supp}(\theta_g x))^\frac{1}{q} \geq \frac{1}{\displaystyle\sup_{\alpha \in \Omega, \beta \in \Delta}|f_\alpha(\omega_\beta)|}, \quad \nu(\operatorname{supp}(\theta_g x))^\frac{1}{p} \mu(\operatorname{supp}(\theta_f x))^\frac{1}{q}\geq \frac{1}{\displaystyle\sup_{\alpha \in \Omega , \beta \in \Delta}|g_\beta(\tau_\alpha)|}. \end{align} where \begin{align*} &\theta_f: \mathcal{X} \ni x \mapsto \theta_fx \in \mathcal{L}^p(\Omega, \mu); \quad \theta_fx: \Omega \ni \alpha \mapsto (\theta_fx) (\alpha):= f_\alpha (x) \in \mathbb{K},\\ &\theta_g: \mathcal{X} \ni x \mapsto \theta_gx \in \mathcal{L}^p(\Delta, \nu); \quad \theta_gx: \Delta \ni \beta \mapsto (\theta_gx) (\beta):= g_\beta (x) \in \mathbb{K} \end{align*} and $q$ is the conjugate index of $p$. We call Inequality (\ref{CUE}) as \textbf{Functional Continuous Uncertainty Principle}. It improves the Functional Donoho-Stark-Elad-Bruckstein-Ricaud-Torr\'{e}sani Uncertainty Principle obtained by M. Krishna in \textit{[arXiv:2304.03324v1, 2023]}. It also answers a question asked by Prof. Philip B. Stark to the author.

Let $\{f_j\}_{j=1}^n$ and $\{g_k\}_{k=1}^m$ be Parseval p-frames for a finite dimensional Banach space $\mathcal{X}$. Then we show that \begin{align}\label{UE} \log (nm)\geq S_f (x)+S_g (x)\geq -p \log \left(\displaystyle\sup_{y \in \mathcal{X}_f\cap \mathcal{X}_g, \|y\|=1}\left(\max_{1\leq j\leq n, 1\leq k\leq m}|f_j(y)g_k(y)|\right)\right), \quad \forall x \in \mathcal{X}_f\cap \mathcal{X}_g, \end{align} where \begin{align*} &\mathcal{X}_f\coloneqq \{z\in \mathcal{X}: f_j(z)\neq 0, 1\leq j \leq n\}, \quad \mathcal{X}_g\coloneqq \{w\in \mathcal{X}: g_k(w)\neq 0, 1\leq k \leq m\},\\ &S_f (x)\coloneqq -\sum_{j=1}^{n}\left|f_j\left(\frac{x}{\|x\|}\right)\right|^p\log \left|f_j\left(\frac{x}{\|x\|}\right)\right|^p, \quad S_g (x)\coloneqq -\sum_{k=1}^{m}\left|g_k\left(\frac{x}{\|x\|}\right)\right|^p\log \left|g_k\left(\frac{x}{\|x\|}\right)\right|^p, \quad \forall x \in \mathcal{X}_g. \end{align*} We call Inequality (1) as \textbf{Functional Deutsch Uncertainty Principle}. For Hilbert spaces, we show that Inequality (1) reduces to the uncertainty principle obtained by Deutsch \textit{[Phys. Rev. Lett., 1983]}. We also derive a dual of Inequality (1).

The design flood concept (DF) provides for an essential tool in designing the hydraulic works, in defining the reservoir operation programs and for a reliable flood hazard identification. Under a simplified approach, the maximum discharge and the floods volume are statistically processed to reasonably define the DF. Yet, the integral hydrograph provides additional key temporal and quantitative details of important significance for flood management and particularly for the res-ervoirs operation and associated risks of failures. The procedure presented in this paper (as applied on a set of compatibly shaped hydrographs) involves the following key stages: (i) normalize the floods, (ii) define similar flood shape classes and (iii) evaluate the average dimensionless flood (ADF) for each class. The ADFs are finally transformed into a set of (DF)s. Many statistical distributions approximate acceptably the frequent values of the maximum discharges or the flood volumes, yet displaying a significant spread for medium or rare probabilities of exceedance (PE). This scattering, which can be explained by the epistemic uncertainty, defines an area of uncertainty both for measured and extrapolated values. In considering upper and lower values of the uncertainty in-tervals as limits for maximum discharges and flood volumes, then by combining them compatibly, a set of DFs - as completely defined hydrographs, with different shapes - results for each PE. The herein proposed procedure defines both one peak DF and multi-peaks DF. Subsequently, such DFs do assist water managers in examining and establishing tailored approaches for a variety of input hydrographs. Among the DFs that would correspond to a same PE, the most compact floods arise a special interest, for they are basic in defining the set of safe operation rules for hydraulic structures.

Uncertainty relations in hydrodynamics are numerically studied. We first give a review for the formulation of the generalized uncertainty relations in the stochastic variational method (SVM), following the work by two of the present authors [Phys.\ Lett.\ A\textbf{382}, 1472 (2018)]. In this approach, the origin of the finite minimum value of uncertainty is attributed to the non-differentiable (virtual) trajectory of a quantum particle and then both of the Kennard and Robertson-Schr\"{o}dinger inequalities in quantum mechanics are reproduced. The same non-differentiable trajectory is applied to the motion of fluid elements in the Navier-Stokes-Fourier equation or the Navier-Stokes-Korteweg equation. By introducing the standard deviations of position and momentum for fluid elements, the uncertainty relations in hydrodynamics are derived. These are applicable even to the Gross-Pitaevskii equation and then the field-theoretical uncertainty relation is reproduced. We further investigate numerically the derived relations and find that the behaviors of the uncertainty relations for liquid and gas are qualitatively different. This suggests that the uncertainty relations in hydrodynamics are used as a criterion to classify liquid and gas in fluid.

This work (in two parts) will review the recently developed predictive modeling methodology called “4th-BERRU-PM” and its applicability to energy systems as exemplified by an illustrative application to the Polyethylene-Reflected Plutonium (acronym: PERP) OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark. The acronym 4th-BERRU-PM designates the “Fourth-Order Best-Estimate Results with Reduced Uncertainties Predictive Modeling” methodology, which yields best-estimate results with reduced uncertainties for the first fourth-order moments (mean values, covariance, skewness, and kurtosis) of the optimally predicted posterior distribution of model results and calibrated model parameters. The 4th-BERRU-PM uses the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) principle to incorporate fourth-order experimental and computational information, including fourth (and higher) order sensitivities of computed model responses to model parameters, thus incorporating, as particular cases, the results previously predicted by the second-order predictive modeling methodology 2nd-BERRU-PM, and vastly generalizing the results produced by extant data assimilation and data adjustment procedures. The 4th-BERRU-PM methodology encompasses the scopes of high-order sensitivity analysis (SA), uncertainty quantification (UQ), data assimilation (DA) and model calibration (MC). The application of the 4th-BERRU-PM methodology to energy systems is illustrated by means of the above-mentioned OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark, which is modeled using the neutron transport Boltzmann equation involving 21976 imprecisely known parameters, the solution of which is representative of “large-scale computations.” The model result (“response”) of interest is the leakage of neutrons through the outer surface of this spherical benchmark, which can be computed numerically and measured experimentally. Part 1 of this work illustrates the impact of high-order sensitivities, in conjunction with parameter standard deviations of various magnitudes, on the determination of the expected value and variance of the computed response in terms of the first four moments of the distribution of the uncertain model parameters. Part 2 of this work will illustrate the capabilities of the 4th-BERRU-PM methodology for combining computational and experimental information, up to and including forth-order sensitivities and distributional moments, for producing best-estimate values for the predicted responses and model parameters while reducing their accompanying uncertainties.

The introduction of ChatGPT in academia has raised significant concerns, particularly regarding issues like plagiarism and the ethical use of generative text for academic purposes. Existing literature has predominantly focused on ChatGPT adoption, leaving a notable gap in addressing the strategies users employ to mitigate these emerging challenges. To bridge this gap, this research utilizes the Uncertainty Reduction Theory (URT) to formulate user strategies for reducing uncertainty. These strategies include both interactive and passive approaches. Concurrently, the study identifies key sources of uncertainty, which include concerns related to transparency, information accuracy, and privacy. Additionally, it introduces the concepts of seeking clarification and consulting peer feedback as mediating roles to facilitate reduced uncertainty. We tested these hypotheses with a sample of Indonesian users (N = 566) using structural equation modeling via Smart-PLS 4.0 software. The results confirm that interactive Uncertainty Reduction Strategies (URS) are more effective in reducing uncertainty when using ChatGPT compared to passive URS. Transparency concerns, information accuracy, and privacy concerns are identified as factors that increase the level of uncertainty. In contrast, consulting peer feedback is the most effective strategy for reducing uncertainty compared to seeking clarification at the individual-system level. Insights from the mediating effects confirm that consulting peer feedback significantly mediates uncertainty sources to reduce uncertainty. The study discusses various strategies for the ethical use of ChatGPT by users in the educational context and contributes significantly to theoretical development.

Let $(\Omega, \mu)$, $(\Delta, \nu)$ be measure spaces and $\{\tau_\alpha\}_{\alpha\in \Omega}$, $\{\omega_\beta\}_{\beta \in \Delta}$ be 1-bounded continuous Parseval frames for a Hilbert space $\mathcal{H}$. Then we show that \begin{align}\label{UE} \log (\mu(\Omega)\nu(\Delta))\geq S_\tau(h)+S_\omega (h)\geq -2 \log \left(\frac{1+\displaystyle \sup_{\alpha \in \Omega, \beta \in \Delta}|\langle\tau_\alpha , \omega_\beta\rangle|}{2}\right) , \quad \forall h \in \mathcal{H}_\tau \cap \mathcal{H}_\omega, \end{align} where \begin{align*} &\mathcal{H}_\tau := \{h_1 \in \mathcal{H}: \langle h_1 , \tau_\alpha \rangle \neq 0, \alpha \in \Omega\}, \quad \mathcal{H}_\omega := \{h_2 \in \mathcal{H}: \langle h_2, \omega_\beta \rangle \neq 0, \beta \in \Delta\},\\ &S_\tau(h):= -\displaystyle\int\limits_{\Omega}\left|\left \langle \frac{h}{\|h\|}, \tau_\alpha\right\rangle \right|^2\log \left|\left \langle \frac{h}{\|h\|}, \tau_\alpha\right\rangle \right|^2\,d\mu(\alpha), \quad \forall h \in \mathcal{H}_\tau, \\ & S_\omega (h):= -\displaystyle\int\limits_{\Delta}\left|\left \langle \frac{h}{\|h\|}, \omega_\beta\right\rangle \right|^2\log \left|\left \langle \frac{h}{\|h\|}, \omega_\beta\right\rangle \right|^2\,d\nu(\beta), \quad \forall h \in \mathcal{H}_\omega. \end{align*} We call Inequality (\ref{UE}) as \textbf{Continuous Deutsch Uncertainty Principle}. Inequality (\ref{UE}) improves the uncertainty principle obtained by Deutsch \textit{[Phys. Rev. Lett., 1983]}. We formulate Kraus conjecture for 1-bounded continuous Parseval frames. We also derive continuous Deutsch uncertainty principles for Banach spaces.

Visualizing geo-spatial data embedded into a three-dimensional terrain is challenging. The problem becomes even more complex when uncertainty information needs to be presented as well. This paper addresses the question of how to visually communicate all three aspects: the 3D terrain, the geo-spatial data, and the data-associated uncertainty. We argue that visualizing all aspects with a high degree of detail will likely exceed the visual budget. Therefore, we propose a visualization strategy based on prioritizing a selected aspect and presenting the remaining two with less detail. We discuss various design options that allow us to obtain differently prioritized visual representations. Our approach has been implemented as a tool for rapid visualization prototyping in the context of avionics applications. Practical solutions are described for a use case related to the visualization of 3D terrain and uncertain weather data.

Khosravi, Drnov\v{s}ek and Moslehian [\textit{Filomat, 2012}] derived Buzano inequality for Hilbert C*-modules. Using this inequality we derive Deutsch entropic uncertainty principle for Hilbert C*-modules over commutative unital C*-algebras.

We show that one of the two important uncertainty principles derived by Maccone and Pati \textit{[Phys. Rev. Lett., 2014]} can be derived for arbitrary maps defined on subsets of $\mathcal{L}^p$ spaces for $1< p<\infty$. Our main tool is the Clarkson inequalities. We also derive a nonlinear uncertainty principle for weak parallelogram spaces and Type-p Banach spaces.

Let $(\{f_j\}_{j=1}^n, \{\tau_j\}_{j=1}^n)$ and $(\{g_k\}_{k=1}^n, \{\omega_k\}_{k=1}^n)$ be two p-orthonormal bases for a finite dimensional Banach space $\mathcal{X}$. Let $M,N\subseteq \{1, \dots, n\}$ be such that \begin{align*} o(M)^\frac{1}{q}o(N)^\frac{1}{p}< \frac{1}{\displaystyle \max_{1\leq j,k\leq n}|g_k(\tau_j) |}, \end{align*} where $q$ is the conjugate index of $p$. Then for all $x \in \mathcal{X}$, we show that \begin{align}\label{FGJU} (1) \quad \quad \quad \quad \|x\|\leq \left(1+\frac{1}{1-o(M)^\frac{1}{q}o(N)^\frac{1}{p}\displaystyle\max_{1\leq j,k\leq n}|g_k(\tau_j)|}\right)\left[\left(\sum_{j\in M^c}|f_j(x)|^p\right)^\frac{1}{p}+\left(\sum_{k\in N^c}|g_k(x) |^p\right)^\frac{1}{p}\right]. \end{align} We call Inequality (1) as \textbf{Functional Ghobber-Jaming Uncertainty Principle}. Inequality (1) improves the uncertainty principle obtained by Ghobber and Jaming \textit{[Linear Algebra Appl., 2011]}.

We provide a comprehensive framework for forecasting five minute load using Gaussian processes with a positive definite kernel specifically designed for load forecasts. Gaussian processes are probabilistic, enabling us to draw samples from a posterior distribution and provide rigorous uncertainty estimates to complement the point forecast, an important benefit for forecast consumers. As part of the modeling process, we discuss various methods for dimension reduction and explore their use in effectively incorporating weather data to the load forecast. We provide guidance for every step of the modeling process, from model construction through optimization and model combination. We provide results on data from the PJMISO for various periods in 2018. The process is transparent, mathematically motivated, and reproducible. The resulting model provides a probability density of five-minute forecasts for 24 hours.

In this paper, we will revisit the derivation of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. We will see how the Heisenberg principle collapses at the Planck scale by introducing a minor modification. The beauty of our suggested modification is that it does not change the main equations in quantum mechanics; it only gives them a Planck scale limit where uncertainty collapses. We suspect that Einstein could have been right after all, when he stated, ``God does not throw dice." His now-famous saying was an expression of his skepticism towards the concept that quantum randomness could be the ruling force, even at the deepest levels of reality. Here we will explore the quantum realm with a fresh perspective, by re-deriving the Heisenberg principle in relation to the Planck scale. We will show how this idea also leads to an upper boundary on uncertainty, in addition to the lower boundary. These upper and lower boundaries are identical for the Planck mass particle; in fact, they are zero, and this highlights the truly unique nature of the Planck mass particle. Further, there may be a close connection between light and the Planck mass particle: In our model, the standard relativistic energy momentum relation also seems to apply to light, while in modern physics light generally stands outside the standard relativistic momentum energy relation. We will also suggest a new way to look at elementary particles, where mass and time are closely related, consistent with some of the recent work in experimental physics. Our model leads to a new time operator that does not appear to be in conflict with the Pauli objection. This indicates that both mass and momentum come in quanta, which are perfectly correlated to an internal Compton `clock' frequency in elementary particles.

In this paper, we consider a make-to-order supply chain which satisfies demand that is dependent on both price and quoted lead -time. The manufacturer chooses the lead -time and the order quantity, and the retailer sets the revenue shares. The interactions between the manufacturer and the retailer are modelled as a Nash Game, and the existence and uniqueness of pure strategy equilibrium are demonstrated. A mechanism that enables the supply chain to coordinate the decisions of the members is developed. Lastly, we also analyze how the supply chain system parameters impact the optimal supply chain decisions and the supply chain performance.

In recent years retarded gravity has explained many of the mysteries surrounding the "missing mass" related to galactic rotation curves, the Tully-Fisher relations, and gravitational lensing phenomena. Indeed a recent paper analyzing 143 galaxies, has demonstrated that retarded gravity will suffice to explain the galaxies rotation curves without the need to postulate dark matter for multiple types of galaxies. Moreover, it also demystified the "missing mass" related to galactic clusters and elliptic galaxies in which excess matter wad derived through the virial theorem. Here we give a mathematical criterion which specifies the cases for which retardation is important for gravity (and when it is not). The criterion takes the form of an "uncertainty" relation.

We derive an uncertainty principle for Lipschitz maps acting on subsets of Banach spaces. We show that this nonlinear uncertainty principle reduces to the Heisenberg-Robertson-Schrodinger uncertainty principle for linear operators acting on Hilbert spaces.

Let $\mathcal{X}$ be a Banach space. Let $\{\tau_j\}_{j=1}^n, \{\omega_k\}_{k=1}^m\subseteq \mathcal{X}$ and $\{f_j\}_{j=1}^n$, $\{g_k\}_{k=1}^m\subseteq \mathcal{X}^*$ satisfy $ |f_j(\tau_j)|\geq 1$ for all $ 1\leq j \leq n$, $|g_k(\omega_k)|\geq 1 $ for all $1\leq k \leq m$. If $x \in \mathcal{X}\setminus \{0\}$ is such that $x=\theta_\tau\theta_f x=\theta_\omega\theta_g x$, then we show that \begin{align}\label{FKDB} \|\theta_fx\|_0\|\theta_gx\|_0\geq \frac{\bigg[1-(\|\theta_fx\|_0-1)\max\limits_{1\leq j,r \leq n,j\neq r}|f_j(\tau_r)|\bigg]^+\bigg[1-(\|\theta_g x\|_0-1)\max\limits_{1\leq k,s \leq m,k\neq s}|g_k(\omega_s)|\bigg]^+}{\left(\displaystyle\max_{1\leq j \leq n, 1\leq k \leq m}|f_j(\omega_k)|\right)\left(\displaystyle\max_{1\leq j \leq n, 1\leq k \leq m}|g_k(\tau_j)|\right)}. \end{align} We call Inequality (\ref{FKDB}) as \textbf{Functional Kuppinger-Durisi-B\"{o}lcskei Uncertainty Principle}. Inequality (\ref{FKDB}) improves the uncertainty principle obtained by Kuppinger, Durisi and B\"{o}lcskei \textit{[IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory (2012)]} (which improved the Donoho-Stark-Elad-Bruckstein uncertainty principle \textit{[SIAM J. Appl. Math. (1989), IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory (2002)]}). We also derive functional form of the uncertainity principle obtained by Studer, Kuppinger, Pope and B\"{o}lcskei \textit{[EEE Trans. Inform. Theory, (2012)]}.

Let $(\Omega, \mu)$, $(\Delta, \nu)$ be measure spaces. Let $(\{f_\alpha\}_{\alpha\in \Omega}, \{\tau_\alpha\}_{\alpha\in \Omega})$ and $(\{g_\beta\}_{\beta\in \Delta}, \{\omega_\beta\}_{\beta\in \Delta})$ be continuous 1-Schauder frames for a Banach space $\mathcal{X}$. Then for every $x \in \mathcal{X}\setminus\{0\}$, we show that \begin{align*} \mu(\operatorname{supp}(\theta_f x)) \geq \frac{1}{\displaystyle\sup_{\alpha \in \Omega, \beta \in \Delta}|f_\alpha(\omega_\beta)|}, \quad \nu(\operatorname{supp}(\theta_g x))\geq \frac{1}{\displaystyle\sup_{\alpha \in \Omega , \beta \in \Delta}|g_\beta(\tau_\alpha)|}. \end{align*} where \begin{align*} &\theta_f: \mathcal{X} \ni x \mapsto \theta_fx \in \mathcal{L}^1(\Omega, \mu); \quad \theta_fx: \Omega \ni \alpha \mapsto (\theta_fx) (\alpha):= f_\alpha (x) \in \mathbb{K},\\ &\theta_g: \mathcal{X} \ni x \mapsto \theta_gx \in \mathcal{L}^1(\Delta, \nu); \quad \theta_gx: \Delta \ni \beta \mapsto (\theta_gx) (\beta):= g_\beta (x) \in \mathbb{K}. \end{align*} This solves a problem asked by K. M. Krishna in the paper 'Functional Continuous Uncertainty Principle' \textit{[arXiv:2308.00312v1]}.

The relativistic effects of the dynamical properties of light at angular incidence were analyzed from the perspectives of Bohr indeterminacy and Heisenberg uncertainties and statistical dispersion. It was found that these effects report minimal uncertainties that agree with one or the other according to the angular range of incidence and that decrease with increasing refringence of the medium, constituting a specific relativistic uncertainty at angular incidence. An anomaly is indicated for the uncertainty principle in the Quantum Theory (QT) setting for small angles of incidence, where the accuracy of the angular position does not imply an increase in the uncertainty of the linear momentum. The anomalies arise because TQ does not predict the alternation between the classical and relativistic regimes of photon inertia at angular incidence. Specific relativistic uncertainty particularizes the uncertainty principle in the transmission of light between media pairs at angular incidence for the relativistic scenario, considering an observer that registers the relativistic effects of measurements that interfere with the observed system, in another inertial referential.

Surrogate model based optimization method is widely-used to accelerate the design and optimization process~\cite{marler2004survey}. The input of regression model used in the surrogate model are numbers, which requires users to parametrize the geometries. In this paper, a new parameterization-free surrogate model is introduced and its corresponding uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis method are discussed. The input of new surrogate model methods is surface mesh of simulation domain. \Gls{gnns} is used to extract geometric information, and \Gls{cnns} is used to predict contours. This framework bypasses parameterization,as a consequence, uncertainties introduced by manual parameterization is reduced. However, such changes compared with conventional surrogate model methods impose great challenge on uncertainties quantification and sensitivity analysis. Uncertainties quantification in this paper means the error bar of prediction results, which is calculated by Gaussian Process Regression method in current surrogate method. In this paper, a new quantification method achieved by Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) is introduced. And the sensitivity analysis is conducted by Automatic Differentiation, which gives a Jacobian matrix of inputs. The method and analysis mentioned above are demonstrated by a low-pressure steam turbine rotator and its exhaust system.

The theories of quantum mechanics and relativity dramatically altered our understanding of the universe ushering in the era of modern physics. Quantum theory deals with objects probabilistically at small scales, whereas relativity deals classically with motion in space and time. We show here that the mathematical structures of quantum theory and of relativity follow together from pure thought, defined and uniquely constrained by the same elementary ``combining and sequencing'' symmetries that underlie standard arithmetic and probability. The key is uncertainty, which inevitably accompanies observation of quantity and imposes the use of pairs of numbers. The symmetries then lead directly to the use of complex \sqrt{-1} arithmetic, the standard calculus of quantum mechanics, and the Lorentz transformations of relativistic spacetime. One dimension of time and three dimensions of space are thus derived as the profound and inevitable framework of physics.

The study's motivation is to gauge the nexus between economic policy uncertainty and financial innovation for the period 2004M1 to 2018M12 in BRIC nations. For establishing a long-run cointegration study applied Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) and asymmetry effects of economic policy uncertainty investigated following nonlinear framework known as NARDL. Furthermore, directional causality is established by performing a non-granger causality test. Cointegration test results of Fpss, Wpss, and tBDM confirmed the long-run association between EPU and financial innovation. On the other hand, the Wald test results proved asymmetry effects furring from EPU to financial innovation both in the long-run and short-run. Referring to asymmetry effects that positive and negative shocks in financial innovation, the study revealed that negative linkage between shocks in EPU and financial innovation in the long-run but short-run effects are insignificant. Furthermore, financial innovation measured by R&D investment exhibits positive linked with shocks in EPU, implying that uncertainty induces innovation in the economy. Refers to directional causality estimation, the study revealed evidence supporting the feedback hypothesis between EPU and financial innovation in all sample countries.

Pharmacy personnel often answer telephones to respond to pharmacy customers (subjects) who received messages from automated systems. This research examines the communication process in terms of how users interact and engage with pharmacies after receiving automated messages. No study has directly addressed automated telephone calls and subjects’ interactions. The purpose of this study is to test the interpersonal communication (IC) process of uncertainty in subjects in receipt of automated telephone calls from pharmacies. Subjects completed a survey of validated scales for Satisfaction (S); Relevance (R); Quality (Q); Need for Cognitive Closure (NFC). Relationships between S, R, Q, NFC, and subject preference to an automated telephone call (ATC) were analyzed to determine whether subjects contacting pharmacies display information seeking behavior. This research demonstrates that seeking information occurs if subjects: are dissatisfied with the content of the ATC; perceive that the Q of the ATC is high; perceive that the Q of ATC is high, and like receiving the ATC or with high NFC, and do not like receiving ATCs. Other interactions presented complexities amongst uncertainty and tolerance of NFC within the IC process.

This article explores the profound implications of Dr. Anthony Fauci's testimony before the U.S. House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, where he admitted that key COVID-19 policies lacked scientific backing. By analyzing the foundation of these decisions, the piece delves into the broader issues of scientific evidence, hypothesis validation, and the societal consequences of implementing unverified measures. It raises critical questions about the role of scientific rigor and accountability in policy-making, urging a reflection on our approach to scientific inquiry and decision-making in public health.

Let $(\{f_n\}_{n=1}^\infty, \{\tau_n\}_{n=1}^\infty)$ and $(\{g_n\}_{n=1}^\infty, \{\omega_n\}_{n=1}^\infty)$ be unbounded continuous p-Schauder frames ($0<p<1$) for a disc Banach space $\mathcal{X}$. Then for every $x \in ( \mathcal{D}(\theta_f) \cap\mathcal{D}(\theta_g))\setminus\{0\}$, we show that \begin{align}\label{UB} \|\theta_f x\|_0\|\theta_g x\|_0 \geq \frac{1}{\left(\displaystyle\sup_{n,m \in \mathbb{N} }|f_n(\omega_m)|\right)^p\left(\displaystyle\sup_{n, m \in \mathbb{N}}|g_m(\tau_n)|\right)^p}, \end{align} where \begin{align*} & \theta_f: \mathcal{D}(\theta_f) \ni x \mapsto \theta_fx \coloneqq \{f_n(x)\}_{n=1}^\infty\in \ell^p(\mathbb{N}), \quad \theta_g: \mathcal{D}(\theta_g) \ni x \mapsto \theta_gx \coloneqq \{g_n(x)\}_{n=1}^\infty\in \ell^p(\mathbb{N}). \end{align*} Inequality (1) is unexpectedly different from both bounded uncertainty principle \textit{[arXiv:2308.00312v1]} and unbounded uncertainty principle \textit{[arXiv:2312.00366v1]} for Banach spaces.

Let $(\{f_j\}_{j=1}^n, \{\tau_j\}_{j=1}^n)$ and $(\{g_k\}_{k=1}^n, \{\omega_k\}_{k=1}^n)$ be two p-orthonormal bases for a finite dimensional Banach space $\mathcal{X}$. If $ x \in \mathcal{X}\setminus\{0\}$ is such that $\theta_fx$ is $\varepsilon$-supported on $M\subseteq \{1,\dots, n\}$ w.r.t. p-norm and $\theta_gx$ is $\delta$-supported on $N\subseteq \{1,\dots, n\}$ w.r.t. p-norm, then we show that \begin{align}\label{ME} &o(M)^\frac{1}{p}o(N)^\frac{1}{q}\geq \frac{1}{\displaystyle \max_{1\leq j,k\leq n}|f_j(\omega_k) |}\max \{1-\varepsilon-\delta, 0\},\\ &o(M)^\frac{1}{q}o(N)^\frac{1}{p}\geq \frac{1}{\displaystyle \max_{1\leq j,k\leq n}|g_k(\tau_j) |}\max \{1-\varepsilon-\delta, 0\},\label{ME2} \end{align} where \begin{align*} \theta_f: \mathcal{X} \ni x \mapsto (f_j(x) )_{j=1}^n \in \ell^p([n]); \quad \theta_g: \mathcal{X} \ni x \mapsto (g_k(x) )_{k=1}^n \in \ell^p([n]) \end{align*} and $q$ is the conjugate index of $p$. We call Inequalities (\ref{ME}) and (\ref{ME2}) as \textbf{Functional Donoho-Stark Approximate Support Uncertainty Principle}. Inequalities (\ref{ME}) and (\ref{ME2}) improve the finite approximate support uncertainty principle obtained by Donoho and Stark \textit{[SIAM J. Appl. Math., 1989]}.

This paper addresses the alliance route network design problem considering uncertainty of unit transportation cost. An alliance route network is constructed based on the hub-and-spoke (HS) network , in which airlines can achieve inter-area passenger transport through their international gateways. The design problem is formulated with a robust model containing a set of uncertain cost parameters. The model is established based on the three-subscript model of the HS network. A case study collected from real-world data is used to test the proposed model. The results show that the robust solution can reduce the impact of cost uncertainty.

This paper investigates the importance of enhancing the safety of research reactors, especially in newcomer countries where experience may be limited. The focus is on the role of Independent Assessment (IA) and assessors in addition to using Best Estimate plus Uncertainty (BEPU) approach in enhancing safety measures. By using the best estimate codes to perform uncertainty calculations, the BEPU technique logically connects nuclear thermal hydraulics and nuclear reactor safety. BEPU is based on an understanding of the phenomena related to the reactor state. Reactor circumstances, such as those related to operations or accidents, could be identified in this way. The IA process, involves experts supporting design, installation, safety analysis, decommissioning, and modification. In order to shape the use of IA process in this study feedback from nuclear professionals was collected through questionnaires, revealing a consensus on the necessity of qualified regulatory bodies in newcomer countries. Additionally, the questionnaires highlighted the potential benefits of IA, such as minimizing accident risks and providing valuable insights for future analyses. The results indicate a global anticipation of increased research reactor construction, particularly in newcomer countries. The study discusses the propagation of input uncertainties, emphasizing the importance of considering various factors and parameters in safety assessments. The BEPU method was applied by using the COBRA-TF code by modeling onset of nucleate boiling (ONB) conditions for VVR-K research reactor. For uncertain parameters; ±1% inlet/initial pressure, ±1% inlet temperature, and ±1% linear heat rate, the ONB temperature in the axial region with the average cladding temperature was calculated to be 114.44℃. Table 2 (our references) provided a value of 114.6℃. The close agreement between the reference value and the COBRA-TF result shows that the model used in the calculation of the reference value and the Chen relation used by COBRA-TF are compatible.

In this study, we employ the GARCH-MIDAS (Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity variant of Mixed Data Sampling) model to explore the predictability of commodity return volatility in relation to US climate policy uncertainty (CPU). Our analysis utilizes the 20-day annualized realized commodity volatility returns of nine global commodities (Aluminium, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Cotton, Rice, Soybean, Sugar, and Wheat) to construct the GARCH-MIDAS model, with Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) serving as the predictive variable. The outcomes of our investigation reveal a consistently positive and statistically significant relationship between CPU and the selected commodities. This implies that CPU effectively serves as a robust predictor of volatility in commodity returns. The implications drawn from our results suggest that climate change policies play a pivotal role in influencing economic activities within the commodity market. This underscores the substantial impact of climate change considerations on investment decisions and further emphasizes the integral role of climate change in shaping economic choices.

In this paper study, we develop a Bayesian Network model selection principle that address addresses the incommensurability of network features obtained from incongruous datasets and overcomes performance irregularities of the Minimum Description Length model selection principle. This is achieved (i) by approaching model evaluation as a classification problem, (ii) by estimating the effect that sampling error has on the satisfiability of conditional independence criterion, as reflected by Mutual Information, and (iii) by utilizing this error estimate to penalize uncertainty in the Minimum Uncertainty (MU) model selection principle. We validate our findings numerically and demonstrate the performance advantages of the MU criterion. Finally, we illustrate the advantages of the new model evaluation framework on a tRNA structural biology example.

The spatial resolution measurement limitation of the position-momentum uncertainty principle is shown to mathematically originate from the Bekenstein entropy bound and the associated second law of thermodynamics, as a special case in which a statistical thermodynamic distribution of energies is specialized to a fixed, definite probe energy equal to the average energy of that distribution. This is used in combination with the Wein displacement law to predict an ultraviolet cutoff for Planck blackbody radiation at about ⅛ of the Wein peak. A new UV photon counting experiment is proposed to test for this. A physical understanding of these results may be provided by a UV-complete, intelligible theory of general relativistic quantum mechanics in which the observation of a blackbody spectrum is simply a remote observation of Hawking radiation emitted from black hole fluctuations in the gravitational vacuum.

This study analyzes the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (hereinafter EPU) and corporate value, and verifies the differential effects of EPU on corporate value according to corporate social responsibility (hereinafter CSR) activities. The study period was from 2010 to 2020, and the EPU indexes measured by Baker et al. (2016)'s method and Hexun's CSR scores for companies listed on the Chinese stock market were used. Hexun is one of the three major evaluation agencies in China, and the CSR scores evaluated by this agency have been widely used in previous studies as a representative indicator of Chinese companies' CSR performance. The results of this study are as follows. First, EPU and corporate value were found to have a negative (-) relationship. Second, active CSR activities relieved the negative (-) relationship between EPU and corporate value. Finally, companies were divided into groups according to CSR activity scores to analyze the relationship and according to the result, the negative (-) relationship between EPU and corporate value was greater in the groups with low CSR activity scores than in the groups with high CSR activity scores. A lag model was applied to control endogeneity, and the results were consistent with the main results above. Previous studies have mainly focused on microscopic factors to investigate factors affecting corporate value. This study focused on macroeconomic policies and paid attention to the effects of changes in the macroenvironment caused by economic policy uncertainty on corporate value. In addition, this study is meaningful in that it expanded previous studies related to CSR activities by confirming that active CSR activities can be an advantageous tool for overcoming EPU.

Properties of coherent states for the Heisenberg group over a field of $p$-adic numbers are investigated. It turns out that coherent states form an orthonormal basis. The family of all such bases is parametrized by a set of self-dual lattices in the phase space. The Wehrl entropy $S_W$ is considered and its properties are investigated. In particular, it is proved that $S_W\geq 0$ and vanishes only on coherent states. For a pair of different bases of coherent states, an entropic uncertainty relation is obtained. It is shown that the lower bound for the sum of the corresponding Wehrl entropies is given by the distance between the lattices. The proof uses the fact that the bases of coherent states corresponding to a pair of lattices are mutually unbiased.

This study uses the social impact theory to analyse consumer behaviour amidst Covid-19. Fear of scarcity has changed consumer buying behaviour in crisis times such as the now abating global health crisis – i.e., Covid-19. The study asserts that the existing five-stage model of consumer purchasing decisions does not fit neatly in turbulent times. It proposes a shortened four-stage process of need recognition, purchase, ownership and satisfaction as a better and more adaptable fit. Cutting out information search and evaluation of alternatives in the old model, and replacing these with ownership, is where the main contribution of the study lies. The study has implications for managing the marketing mix as we know it. It asserts that not all the 4Ps of the marketing mix are important in crisis times.

Let $\{\tau_n\}_{n=1}^\infty$ and $\{\omega_m\}_{m=1}^\infty$ be two modular Parseval frames for a Hilbert C*-module $\mathcal{E}$. Then for every $x \in \mathcal{E}\setminus\{0\}$, we show that \begin{align}\label{UE} \|\theta_\tau x \|_0 \|\theta_\omega x \|_0 \geq \frac{1}{\sup_{n, m \in \mathbb{N}} \|\langle \tau_n, \omega_m\rangle \|^2}. \end{align} We call Inequality (\ref{UE}) as \textbf{Noncommutative Donoho-Stark-Elad-Bruckstein-Ricaud-Torr\'{e}sani Uncertainty Principle}. Inequality (\ref{UE}) is the noncommutative analogue of breakthrough Ricaud-Torr\'{e}sani uncertainty principle \textit{[IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 2013]}. In particular, Inequality (\ref{UE}) extends Elad-Bruckstein uncertainty principle \textit{[IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 2002]} and Donoho-Stark uncertainty principle \textit{[SIAM J. Appl. Math., 1989]}.

Let $(\Omega, \mu)$, $(\Delta, \nu)$ be measure spaces. Let $(\{f_\alpha\}_{\alpha\in \Omega}, \{\tau_\alpha\}_{\alpha\in \Omega})$ and $(\{g_\beta\}_{\beta\in \Delta}, \{\omega_\beta\}_{\beta\in \Delta})$ be unbounded continuous 1-Schauder frames for a Banach space $\mathcal{X}$. Then for every $x \in ( \mathcal{D}(\theta_f) \cap\mathcal{D}(\theta_g))\setminus\{0\}$, we show that \begin{align}\label{UB} \mu(\operatorname{supp}(\theta_f x))\nu(\operatorname{supp}(\theta_g x)) \geq \frac{1}{\left(\displaystyle\sup_{\alpha \in \Omega, \beta \in \Delta}|f_\alpha(\omega_\beta)|\right)\left(\displaystyle\sup_{\alpha \in \Omega , \beta \in \Delta}|g_\beta(\tau_\alpha)|\right)}. \end{align} where \begin{align*} &\theta_f:\mathcal{D}(\theta_f) \ni x \mapsto \theta_fx \in \mathcal{L}^1(\Omega, \mu); \quad \theta_fx: \Omega \ni \alpha \mapsto (\theta_fx) (\alpha):= f_\alpha (x) \in \mathbb{K},\\ &\theta_g: \mathcal{D}(\theta_g) \ni x \mapsto \theta_gx \in \mathcal{L}^1(\Delta, \nu); \quad \theta_gx: \Delta \ni \beta \mapsto (\theta_gx) (\beta):= g_\beta (x) \in \mathbb{K}. \end{align*} We call Inequality (\ref{UB}) as \textbf{Unbounded Donoho-Stark-Elad-Bruckstein-Ricaud-Torr\'{e}sani Uncertainty Principle}. Along with recent \textbf{Functional Continuous Uncertainty Principle} (derived in [arXiv:2308.00312v1 [math.FA], 1 August 2023]), Inequality (\ref{UB}) also improves Ricaud-Torr\'{e}sani uncertainty principle \textit{[IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 2013]}. In particular, it improves Elad-Bruckstein uncertainty principle \textit{[IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 2002]} and Donoho-Stark uncertainty principle \textit{[SIAM J. Appl. Math., 1989]}.

Let $(\{f_j\}_{j=1}^n, \{\tau_j\}_{j=1}^n)$ and $(\{g_k\}_{k=1}^m, \{\omega_k\}_{k=1}^m)$ be p-Schauder frames for a finite dimensional Banach space $\mathcal{X}$. Then for every $x \in \mathcal{X}\setminus\{0\}$, we show that \begin{align}\label{UE} \|\theta_f x\|_0^\frac{1}{p}\|\theta_g x\|_0^\frac{1}{q} \geq \frac{1}{\displaystyle\max_{1\leq j\leq n, 1\leq k\leq m}|f_j(\omega_k)|}\quad \text{and} \quad \|\theta_g x\|_0^\frac{1}{p}\|\theta_f x\|_0^\frac{1}{q}\geq \frac{1}{\displaystyle\max_{1\leq j\leq n, 1\leq k\leq m}|g_k(\tau_j)|}. \end{align} where \begin{align*} \theta_f: \mathcal{X} \ni x \mapsto (f_j(x) )_{j=1}^n \in \ell^p([n]); \quad \theta_g: \mathcal{X} \ni x \mapsto (g_k(x) )_{k=1}^m \in \ell^p([m]) \end{align*} and $q$ is the conjugate index of $p$. We call Inequality (\ref{UE}) as \textbf{Functional Donoho-Stark-Elad-Bruckstein-Ricaud-Torr\'{e}sani Uncertainty Principle}. Inequality (\ref{UE}) improves Ricaud-Torr\'{e}sani uncertainty principle \textit{[IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 2013]}. In particular, it improves Elad-Bruckstein uncertainty principle \textit{[IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 2002]} and Donoho-Stark uncertainty principle \textit{[SIAM J. Appl. Math., 1989]}.

Water resource management and flood forecasting are crucial societal and financial stakes requiring reliable predictions of flow parameters (depth, velocity), the accuracy of which is often limited by uncertainties in hydrodynamic numerical models. In this study, we assess the effect of two uncertainty sources, namely breach characteristics induced by overtopping and the roughness coefficient, on water elevations and inundation extent. A two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic solver was applied in a Monte Carlo integration framework to a reach of the Loire river (France) including about 300 physical parameters. Inundation hazard maps for different flood scenarios allowed highlighting the impact of the breach development chronology. A special attention was paid to proposing a relevant sensitivity analysis to exam the factors influencing the depth and extent of flooding. The spatial analysis of vulnerability area induced by a levee breach width exhibits that, with increasing the flood discharge, the rise of the parameter influence is accompanied by a more localized spatial effect. This argues for a local analysis to allow a clear understanding of the flood hazard. The physical interpretation, highlighted by a global sensitivity analysis, showed precisely the dependence of the flood simulation on the main factors studied, i.e. the roughness coefficients and the characteristics of the breaches.

Groundwater represents a pivotal asset in conserving natural water reservoirs for potable consumption, irrigation, and diverse industrial uses. Nevertheless, human activities intertwined with industry and agriculture contribute significantly to groundwater contamination, highlighting the critical necessity to appraise water quality for safe drinking and effective irrigation. This research primarily focused on employing the Water Quality Index (WQI) to gauge water's appropriateness for these purposes. However, the generation of an accurate WQI can prove time-intensive owing to potential errors in sub-index calculations. In response to this challenge, an artificial intelligence (AI) forecasting model was devised, aiming to streamline the process while mitigating errors. The study collected 422 data samples from Mirpurkash, a city nestled in the province of Sindh, for a comprehensive exploration of the region's WQI attributes. Furthermore, the study probed into unraveling the interdependencies amidst variables in the physiochemical analysis of water. Diverse machine learning classifiers were employed for WQI prediction, with findings revealing that random forest and gradient boosting eclipsed other algorithms, achieving an accuracy rate of 99%. In close pursuit were SVM and XGBoost, registering accuracy scores of approximately 95% and 93%, respectively, while KNN and Decision Trees garnered accuracy rates of 88% and 87%, respectively. In addition to WQI prediction, the study conducted an uncertainty analysis of the models using the R-factor, providing insights into the reliability and consistency of predictions. This dual approach, combining accurate WQI prediction with uncertainty assessment, contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of water quality in Mirpurkash and enhances the reliability of decision-making processes related to groundwater utilization

As a fundamental, overall, and strategic issue facing human society, human migration is a key factor affecting the development of countries and cities given constantly changing population numbers. The fuzziness of the spatiotemporal attributes of human migration limits the pool of open-source data for human migration prediction, leading to a relative lag in human migration prediction algorithm research. This study expands the definition of human migration research, reviews the progress of research into human migration prediction, and classifies and compares human migration algorithms based on open-source data. It also explores the critical uncertainty factors restricting the development of human migration prediction. Given the effect of human migration prediction, in combination with artificial intelligence and big data technology, the paper concludes with specific suggestions and countermeasures aimed at enhancing human migration prediction research results to serve economic and social development and national strategy.

Measurement uncertainty is typically expressed in terms of a symmetric interval , where denotes the measurement result and the expanded uncertainty. However, in the case of heteroscedasticity, symmetric uncertainty intervals can be misleading. In this paper, a different approach for the calculation of uncertainty intervals is introduced. This approach is applicable when a validation study has been conducted with samples with known concentrations. It will be shown how, under certain circumstances, asymmetric uncertainty intervals arise quite naturally and lead to more reliable uncertainty intervals.

Abstract: Droughts are complex and gradually evolving conditions of extreme water deficits which can compromise livelihoods and ecological integrity, especially in fragile arid and semi-arid regions that depend on rainfed farming, such as Kitui West in south-eastern Kenya. Against the background of low ground-station density, 10 gridded rainfall products and four gridded temperature products were used to generate an ensemble of 40 calculations of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to assess uncertainties in the onset, duration and magnitude of past droughts. These uncertainties were driven more by variations between the rainfall products than variations between the temperature products. Remaining ambiguities in drought occurrence could be resolved by complementing the quantitative analysis with ground-based information from key informants engaged in disaster relief, effectively formulating an ensemble approach to SPEI-based drought identification to aid decision making. The reported trend towards drier conditions in Eastern Africa was confirmed for Kitui West by the majority of data products, whereas the rainfall effect on the increasingly dry conditions was more subtle than annual and seasonal declines and greater annual variation, which warrants further investigation. Nevertheless, the effects of increasing droughts are already felt on the ground and warrant decisive action.

In this paper we perform numerous numerical studies for the problem of low-rank matrix completion. We compare the Bayesian approaches and a recently introduced de-biased estimator which provides a useful way to build confidence intervals of interest. From a theoretical viewpoint, the de-biased estimator comes with a sharp minimax-optimal rate of estimation error whereas the Bayesian approach reaches this rate with an additional logarithmic factor. Our simulation studies show originally interesting results that the de-biased estimator is just as good as the Bayesian estimators. Moreover, Bayesian approaches are much more stable and can outperform the de-biased estimator in the case of small samples. However, we also find that the length of the confidence intervals revealed by the de-biased estimator for an entry is absolutely shorter than the length of the considered credible interval. These suggest further theoretical studies on the estimation error and the concentration for Bayesian methods as they are being quite limited up to present.

In this paper, we concentrate on the study of the properties of residual Tsallis entropy for order statistics. Order statistics have an important role in reliability structural engineering for example for modelling lifetimes of series and parallel systems. The residual Tsallis entropy of ith order statistic from a continuous distribution function and its deviation from the residual Tsallis entropy of ith order statistics from a uniform distribution is investigated. In a mathematical framework, a method to express the residual Tsallis entropy of the ith order statistic from a continuous distribution in terms of the residual Tsallis entropy of the ith order statistic from a uniform distribution is provided. This approach may provide insight into the behavior and properties of the residual Tsallis entropy for order statistics. Further, we study the monotonicity properties of the residual Tsallis entropy of order statistics under dierent conditions. By studying these properties, deeper understanding of the relationship between the position of order statistics and the resulting residual Tsallis entropy is gained.

The incorporation of wind generation introduces challenges to the operation of the power system due to its uncertain characteristics. Therefore, the development of methods to accurately model the uncertainty is necessary. In this paper, the spatio-temporal Kriging and analog approaches are used to forecast wind power generation and used as input to solve an economic dispatch problem, considering the uncertainties of wind generation. Spatio-temporal Kriging takes into account the spatial and temporal information given by the database to enhance wind forecasts. We evaluate the performance of using the spatio-temporal Kriging, and comparisons are carried out versus other approaches in the framework of the economic power dispatch problem, for which simulations are developed on the modified IEEE 3-bus and IEEE 24-bus test systems. The results show that the use of Kriging-based spatio-temporal models in the context of economic power dispatch can provide an opportunity for lower operating costs in the presence of uncertainty when compared to other approaches.

Forest planners have traditionally used expected growth and yield coefficients to predict future merchantable timber volumes. However, because climate change affects forest growth, the typical forest planning methods using expected value of forest growth can lead to sub-optimal harvest decisions. We proposed in this paper to formulate the harvest planning with growth uncertainty due to climate change problem as a multistage stochastic optimization problem and use sample average approximation (SAA) as a tool for finding the best set of forest units that should be harvested in the first period even though we have a limited knowledge of what future climate will be. The objective of the harvest planning model is to maximize the expected value of the net present value (NPV) considering the uncertainty in forest growth and thus in revenues from timber harvest. The proposed model was tested on a small forest with 89 stands and the numerical results showed that the approach allows to have superior solutions in terms of net present value and robustness in face of different climate scenarios compared to the approach using the expected growth and yield. The SAA methods requires to generate samples from the distribution of the random parameter. Our results suggested that a sampling scheme that focuses on generating high number of samples in distant future stages is favorable compared to having large sample sizes for the near future stages. Finally, we demonstrated that, depending on the level of forest growth change, ignoring this uncertainty can negatively affect forest resources sustainability.

Industrial dynamical systems often exhibit multi-scale response due to material heterogeneities, operation conditions and complex environmental loadings. In such problems, it is the case that the smallest length-scale of the systems dynamics controls the numerical resolution required to effectively resolve the embedded physics. In practice however, high numerical resolutions is only required in a confined region of the system where fast dynamics or localized material variability are exhibited, whereas a coarser discretization can be sufficient in the rest majority of the system. To this end, a unified computational scheme with uniform spatio-temporal resolutions for uncertainty quantification can be very computationally demanding. Partitioning the complex dynamical system into smaller easier-to-solve problems based of the localized dynamics and material variability can reduce the overall computational cost. However, identifying the region of interest for high-resolution and intensive uncertainty quantification can be a problem dependent. The region of interest can be specified based on the localization features of the solution, user interest, and correlation length of the random material properties. For problems where a region of interest is not evident, Bayesian inference can provide a feasible solution. In this work, we employ a Bayesian framework to update our prior knowledge on the localized region of interest using measurements and system response. To address the computational cost of the Bayesian inference, we construct a Gaussian process surrogate for the forward model. Once, the localized region of interest is identified, we use polynomial chaos expansion to propagate the localization uncertainty. We demonstrate our framework through numerical experiments on a three-dimensional elastodynamic problem

Supervised land-use/land-cover (LULC) classifications are typically conducted using class assignment rules derived from a set of multiclass training samples. Consequently, classification accuracy varies with the training data set and is thus associated with uncertainty. In this study, we propose a bootstrap resampling and reclassification approach that can be applied for assessing not only the uncertainty in classification results of the bootstrap-training data sets, but also the classification uncertainty of individual pixels in the study area. Two measures of pixel-specific classification uncertainty, namely the maximum class probability and Shannon entropy, were derived from the class probability vector of individual pixels and used for the identification of unclassified pixels. Unclassified pixels that are identified using the traditional chi-square threshold technique represent outliers of individual LULC classes, but they are not necessarily associated with higher classification uncertainty. By contrast, unclassified pixels identified using the equal-likelihood technique are associated with higher classification uncertainty and they mostly occur on or near the borders of different land-cover.

The demonstration of compliance of rolling stock against disturbance limits for railway signaling, and in particular track circuits, is subject to a large deal of variability, caused by the diverse values of the electrical parameters of the railway line and resulting transfer functions, as well as operating conditions of rolling stock during tests. Instrumental uncertainty is evaluated with a Type B approach and shown to be much less than the experimental variability. Repeated test runs in acceleration, coasting, cruising, braking conditions are considered, deriving both max-hold (spread) and sample dispersion curves compared to the respective mean values (Type A approach to the evaluation of uncertainty). The major source of variability affecting a significant portion of the spectrum is caused by the superposed oscillations of the onboard LC filter, for which different choices of the transformation window duration are discussed. The test runs and the acquired data covered overall 1 day of tests along about 300 km of the Italian 3 kV DC railway network.

Deterministic simulations using the SWAN model were conducted along a stretch of the Tietê-Paraná waterway in the Ilha Solteira dam reservoir, São Paulo, Brazil, to assess the water waves generated by winds. Simultaneously employs a probabilistic metamodeling approach (PCE) and Sobol indices, to quantify uncertainty of the five involved physical parameters (wind velocity and direction, bottom friction (JONSWAP), whitecapping and depth-induced breaking index). In the deterministic part, Janssen’s formulation yielded the most successful and accurate estimations of wave heights. Probabilistic analysis underscored the importance of wind data and the whitecapping parameter in model calibration, with a significant influence of wind speed indicated by Sobol indices. The results not only refined the model calibration process, but also allowed the creation of contour maps for wave height and period that offer practical pre-project applications. This work advances understanding of wind wave hydrodynamics deterministically and probabilistically, with good concordance and performance indices compared to field data, despite being scarce.

Hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES), complemented by pumped hydropower storage (PHS), have become increasingly popular amidst the increase of renewable energy penetration. This con-figuration is even more prosperous in remote regions that are typically not connected to the mainland power grid, where the energy independence challenge intensifies. This research focuses on the design of such systems, from the perspective of establishing an optimal mix of renewable sources that takes advantage of their complementarities and synergies, combined with the versatility of PHS. However, this design is subject to substantial complexities, due to the multiple objectives and constraints to fulfill, on the one hand, and the inherent uncertainties as well, that span over all underlying processes, i.e., external, and internal. In this vein, we utilize a proposed HRES layout for the Aegean Island of Sifnos, Greece, to develop and evaluate a comprehensive simulation-optimization scheme in deterministic and, eventually, stochastic setting, revealing the design problem under the umbrella of uncertainty. In particular, we account for three major uncertain elements, namely the wind velocity (natural process), the energy demand (anthropogenic process), and the wind-to-power conversion (internal process, expressed in terms of a probabilistic power curve). Emphasis is also given to the decision-making procedure, which requires a thorough interpretation of the uncertainty-aware optimization outcomes. Finally, since the proposed PHS uses the sea as the lower reservoir, additional technical challenges are addressed.

Groundwater models serve as support tools to among others: assess water resources, evaluate management strategies, design remediation systems and optimize monitoring networks. Thus, the assimilation of information from observations into models is crucial to improve forecasts and reduce uncertainty of their results. As more information is collected routinely due to the use of automatic sensors, data loggers and real time transmission systems; groundwater modelers are becoming increasingly aware of the importance of using sophisticated tools to perform model calibration in combination with sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Despite their usefulness, available approaches to perform this kind of analyses still present some challenges such as non-unique solution for the parameter estimation problem, high computational burden and a need of a deep understanding of the theoretical basis for the correct interpretation and use of their results, in particular the ones related to uncertainty analysis. We present a brief derivation of the main equations that serve as basis for this kind of analysis. We demonstrate how to use them to estimate parameters, assess the sensitivity and quantify the uncertainty of the model results using an example inspired by a real world setting. We analyze some of the main pitfalls that can occur when performing such kind of analyses and comment on practical approaches to overcome them. We also demonstrate that including groundwater flow estimations, although helpful in constraining the solution of the inverse problem as shown previously, may be difficult to apply in practice and, in some cases, may not provide enough information to significantly constrain the set of potential solutions.

Conflict between agricultural water resources and socio-economy development is a global problem. Accurate evaluation of coordinated development of agricultural water resources and socio-economy and risk mitigation is necessary for sustainable development. An evaluation method, including selection of criteria, data collection, determination of weight, evaluation of coordinated development, prediction of parameters, and judgment of coordinated development state, has been proposed to study coordinated development degree. To deal with uncertainties, Monte Carlo method and fuzzy set method were used. The method is demonstrated to solve a real-world evaluation problem in Shanxi Province in the middle of China. Results show that coordinated development degrees were (0.7, 0.8) for most of the cities of Shanxi in 2015, indicating that coordinate development state was intermediate coordinate. To achieve balanced development, more attention should be put on socio-economic development in Taiyuan and Yanquan, and agricultural water resources utilization in Jinzhong, Yuncheng and Xinzhou. The average coordinated development degree is 0.758, and coordinate development state was intermediate coordinate from 2006 to 2015. Coordinated development degree has a trend of decreasing markedly, coordinate development state will be barely coordinated, and agricultural water resources utilization lags behind socio-economic development in 2020. The study demonstrates the practicability of the improved method, by evaluating coordinated development degree under uncertainty and forecasting future risks, which will conduce to promote sustainable development of agricultural water resources and socio-economy.

The topic of technology development and its disruptive effects has been the subject of much debate over the last 20 years with numerous theories at both macro and micro scale offering potential models of technology progression and disruption. This paper focuses on how the potential theories of technology progression can be integrated and considers whether suitable indicators of this progression and any subsequent disruptive effects (particularly considering these geographically) might be derived, based on the use of big data analytic techniques. Given the magnitude of the economic, social and political implications of many disruptive technologies, the ability to quantify disruptive change at the earliest possible stage could deliver major returns by reducing uncertainty, assisting public policy intervention and managing the technology transition through disruption into deployment. However, determining when this stage has been reached is problematic because small random effects in the timing, direction of development, the availability of essential supportive technologies or “platform” technologies, market response or government policy can all result in failure of a technology, its form of adoption or optimality of implementation. This paper reviews some of the key models of technology evolution and their disruptive effect including, in particular, the geographical spread of disruption. It suggests a methodology for utilising the recent explosion of open and web-discoverable data to determine a methodology to achieve this earlier determination and considers the potential exploitation of big data modelling and predictive analytical techniques to achieve this goal.

Optical current sensors have been developed and improved in recent decades, and their use has been widespread in power systems, including smart grids. Like any measuring instrument or system, the result of its measurements is associated with a measurement uncertainty, which quantifies its precision. This article presents a review of the main uncertainty contributions that affect the quality and performance of optical current sensors.

Nowadays, the selection of web services with uncertain quality of service (QoS) is gaining a lot of attention in the service-oriented computing paradigm (soc). In fact, searching for a service composition that fulfills a complex user’s request is known to be NP-Complete. The search time is mainly dependent on the number of the requested tasks, the size the available services, and the size of the QoS realizations (i.e., sample size). To handle this problem, we propose a two-stage approach that reduces the search space using heuristics for ranking the tasks’ services and a bat algorithm metaheuristic for selecting the final near optimal compositions. The fitness used by the metaheuristic aims to fulfill all the global constraints of the user. The experimental study shows that the ranking heuristics, termed “fuzzy pareto dominance” and "Zero-order stochastic dominance", are highly effective than the other heuristics and most of the existing state-of-the-art methods.

Stray current is a relevant phenomenon in particular for DC electrified transportation systems, affecting the track and infrastructure within the right of way and other structures and installations nearby. It worsens with time and the level of protection depend on timely maintenance, besides correct design choices. The assessment of track insulation is the starting point for both stray current monitoring systems and at commissioning or upon major changes. Standardized methods (ref. EN 50122-2, or IEC 62128-2) are almost unchanged in the last 20 years, but suffer from accuracy issues and variability due to parameters and conditions not under operator’s control. A critical discussion and analysis of the sources of variability and practical constraints is proposed, followed by the evaluation of uncertainty, with the objective not only to assess the accuracy of provided results, but to foster research on innovative, more flexible and accurate, methods.

Climate change, the scarcity of fossil fuels, technical advances in clean energy, and the volatility of crude oil prices are just a few of the factors that have prompted the world to recognize clean energy as a viable alternative to dirty energy. As part of the Paris Climate Accord of 2015, many countries agreed to change their economies to be more sensitive to climate change. Due to this Accord, which increased interest from investors and decision-makers, investments in clean energy companies have benefited [1,2]. Clean energy stocks, which are a part of the larger world of tradable reserves, might experience pricing inefficiencies. In this paper, we investigate the multifractal scaling behavior and efficiency of green finance markets, as well as traditional markets like gold, crude oil, and natural gas between January 1, 2018, and March 9, 2023, which covers periods of low volatility and financial instability (2020 and 2022 events). To test the serial dependency (autocorrelation) and the efficient market hypothesis, in its weak form, we employed the Lo and Mackinlay test and the DFA method. The empirical findings demonstrated that both periods exhibit severe multifractal and significant asymmetry, indicating that the price indices under study are not at all efficient.

We consider a class of density-driven flow problems. We are particularly interested in the problem of the salinization of coastal aquifers. We consider the Henry saltwater intrusion problem with uncertain porosity, permeability, and recharge parameters as a test case. The reason for the presence of uncertainties is the lack of knowledge, inaccurate measurements, and inability to measure parameters at each spatial or time location. This problem is nonlinear and time-dependent. The solution is the salt mass fraction, which is uncertain and changes in time. Uncertainties in porosity, permeability, recharge, and mass fraction are modeled using random fields. This work investigates the applicability of the well-known multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for such problems. The MLMC method can reduce the total computational and storage costs. Moreover, the MLMC method runs multiple scenarios on different spatial and time meshes and then estimates the mean value of the mass fraction. The parallelization is performed in both the physical space and stochastic space. To solve every deterministic scenario, we run the parallel multigrid solver ug4 in a black-box fashion. We use the solution obtained from the quasi-Monte Carlo method as a reference solution.

Problem. Image biomarker analysis, also known as radiomics, is a tool for tissue characterization and treatment prognosis that relies on routinely acquired clinical images and delineations. Due to the uncertainty in image acquisition, processing, and segmentation (delineation) protocols, radiomics often lacks reproducibility. Radiomics harmonization techniques have been proposed as a solution to reduce these sources of uncertainty and/or their influence on the prognostic model performance. A relevant question is how to estimate the protocol-induced uncertainty of a specific image biomarker, what the effect is on the model performance, and how to optimize the model given the uncertainty. In this manuscript, we show how protocol uncertainty can drastically reduce prognostic model performance. We introduce an effect-size measure η that assesses the protocol-induced uncertainty versus the measurable effect. Methods. Two non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cohorts, composed of 421 and 240 patients respectively, were used for training and testing. Per patient, a Monte Carlo algorithm was used to generate three hundred synthetic contours with a surface dice tolerance measure less than 1.18 mm with respect to the original GTV. These contours were subsequently used to derive 104 radiomic features, which were ranked on their relative sensitivity to contour perturbation, expressed in the parameter η. The top four (low η) and the bottom four (high η) features were selected for two models based on Cox proportional hazards model. To investigate the influence of segmentation uncertainty on the prognostic model, we trained and tested the setup in 5000 augmented realizations (using a Monte Carlo sampling method); the log-rank test was used to assess the stratification performance and stability to segmentation uncertainty. Results. Although both low and high η setup showed significant testing set log-rank p-values (p=0.01) in the original GTV delineations (without segmentation uncertainty introduced), in the model with high uncertainty to effect ratio only around 30% of the augmented realizations resulted in model performance with p < 0.05 in the test set. In contrast, the low η setup performed with log-rank p < 0.05 in 90% of the augmented realizations. Moreover, the high η setup classification was uncertain for 50% of the subjects in the testing set (for 80% agreement rate), whereas the low η setup was uncertain only in 10% of the cases. The code and part of the data are available at https://github.com/Maastro-CDS-Imaging-Group/sure. Discussion. Estimating image biomarker model performance based only on the original GTV segmentation without considering segmentation uncertainty may be deceiving. The model might result in a significant stratification performance, but can be unstable for delineation variations, which are inherent to manual segmentation. Simulating segmentation uncertainty using the method described allows for more stable image biomarker estimation, selection, and model development. The segmentation uncertainty estimation method described here is universal and can be extended to estimate other protocol uncertainties (such as image acquisition and pre-processing).

The classical uncertainty principle inequalities were imposed as a mathematical constraint over the general relativity geodesic equation. In this way, the uncertainty principle was reformulated in terms of the proper space-time length element, Planck length and a geodesic-derived scalar, leading to a geometric expression for the uncertainty principle (GeUP). This re-formulation confirmed the necessity for a minimum length for the space-time line element in the geodesic, dependent on a geodesic-derived scalar which made the expression Lorentz-covariant. In agreement with quantum gravity theories, GeUP required the imposition of a perturbation over the background Minkowski metric unrelated to classical gravity. When applied to the Schwarzschild metric, a geodesic exclusion zone was found around the singularity where uncertainty in space-time diverged to infinity.

Over a billion people live in slums, with poor sanitation, education, property rights and working conditions having direct impact on current residents and future generations. A key problem in relation to slums is slum mapping. Without delineations of where all slum settlements are, informed decisions cannot be made by policymakers in order to benefit the most in need. Satellite images have been used in combination with machine learning models to try and fill the gap in data availability of slum locations. Deep learning has been used on RGB images with some success but since labeled satellite images of slums are relatively low quality and the physical/visual manifestation of slums significantly varies within and across countries, it is important to quantify the uncertainty of predictions for reliable application in downstream tasks. Our solution is to train Monte Carlo dropout U-Net models on multispectral 13-band Sentinel-2 images from which we can calculate pixelwise epistemic (model) and aleatoric (data) uncertainty in our predictions. We trained our model on labelled images of Mumbai and verified our epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty quantification approach using altered models trained on modified datasets. We also used SHAP values to investigate how the different features contribute towards the model’s predictions and this showed that certain short-wave infrared and red-edge image bands are powerful features for determining the locations of slums within images. Having created our model with uncertainty quantification, in the future it can be applied to downstream tasks and decision-makers will know where predictions have been made with low uncertainty, giving them greater confidence in its deployment.

Symmetry in biological and physical systems is a product of self-organization driven by evolutionary processes, or mechanical systems under constraints. Symmetry-based feature extraction or representation by neural networks may unravel the most informative contents in large image databases. Despite significant achievements of artificial intelligence in recognition and classification of regular patterns, the problem of uncertainty remains a major challenge in ambiguous data. In this study, we present an artificial neural network that detects symmetry uncertainty states in human observers. To this end, we exploit a neural network metric in the output of a biologically inspired Self-Organizing Map, the Quantization Error (SOM-QE). Shape pairs with perfect geometric mirror symmetry but a non-homogenous appearance, caused by local variations in hue, saturation, or lightness within and/or across the shapes in a given pair produce, as shown here, longer choice RT for ‘yes’ responses relative to symmetry. These data are consistently mirrored by the variations in the SOM-QE from unsupervised neural network analysis of the same stimulus images. The neural network metric is thus capable of detecting and scaling human symmetry uncertainty in response to patterns. Such capacity is tightly linked to the metric’s proven selectivity to local contrast and color variations in large and highly complex image data.

Based on a previous risk calculation study along a road corridor, risk is recalculated using stochastic simulation by introducing variability for most of the parameters in the risk equation. This leads to an exceedance curve comparable to that of catastrophe models. This approach introduces uncertainty into the risk calculation in a simple way, which can be used for poorly documented cases to fulfil lack of data. This approach seems to tend to minimize risk or to question risk calculations.

Although energy management of a microgrid is generally performed using a day-ahead scheduling method, its effectiveness has been questioned by the research community due to the existence of high uncertainty in renewable power generation, power demand and electricity market. As a result, real-time energy management schemes are recently developed to minimise the operating cost of a microgrid while high uncertainty presents in the network. This paper develops modified particle swarm optimisation (MPSO) algorithms to solve optimisation problems of energy management schemes for a community microgrid and proposes a scheduling approach after taking into consideration high uncertainty to effectively minimise the operational cost of the microgrid. The optimisation problems are formulated for real-time and scheduling approaches, and solution methods are developed to solve the problems. It is observed that the scheduling program demonstrates superior performance in all the cases, including uncertainty in prediction, as compared to the other energy management approaches, although solutions have significant deviations due to prediction errors.

The primary measure of the quality of sea surface temperature (SST) fields obtained from satellite-borne infrared sensors has been the bias and variance of matchups with co-located in-situ values. Because such matchups tend to be widely separated, these bias and variance estimates are not necessarily a good measure of small scale (several pixels) gradients in these fields because one of the primary contributors to the uncertainty in satellite retrievals is atmospheric contamination, which tends to have large spatial scales compared with the pixel separation of infrared sensors. Hence, there is not a good measure to use in selecting SST fields appropriate for the study of submesoscale processes and, in particular, of processes associated with near-surface fronts, both of which have recently seen a rapid increase in interest. In this study, two methods are examined to address this problem, one based on spectra of the SST data and the other on their variograms. To evaluate the methods, instrument noise was estimated in Level-2 VIIRS and AVHRR SST fields of the Sargasso Sea. The two methods provided very nearly identical results for AVHRR: along-scan values of approximately 0.18 K for both day and night and along-track values of 0.21 K also for day and night. By contrast, the instrument noise estimated for VIIRS varied by method, scan geometry and day-night. Specifically, daytime, along-scan (along-track), spectral estimates were found to be approximately 0.05 K (0.08 K) and the corresponding nighttime values of 0.02 K (0.03 K). Daytime estimates based on the variogram were found to be 0.08 K (0.10 K) with the corresponding nighttime values of 0.04 K (0.06 K). Taken together: AVHRR instrument noise is significantly larger than VIIRS instrument noise, along-track noise is larger than along-scan noise and daytime levels are higher than nighttime levels. Given the similarity of results and the less stringent preprocessing requirements, the variogram is the preferred method although there is a suggestion that this approach overestimates the noise for high quality data in dynamically quiet regions. Finally, simulations of the impact of noise on the determination of SST gradients show that on average the gradient magnitude for typical ocean gradients will be accurately estimated with VIIRS but substantially overestimated with AVHRR.

In this study, the dependence between Bitcoin (BTC) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of USA and China is estimated by applying latest methodology of quantile cross-spectral dependence. The findings indicate a positive return interdependence between BTC and EPU is high in short-term, and this dependence decreases as investment horizons increase from weekly to yearly. The information on above interdependence is also extracted by applying wavelet coherence analysis and the estimation results suggest that correlation between BTC and EPU is positive during short-term investment horizon. Furthermore, more diversification benefits of BTC can be obtained during USA-EPU as compared to China-EPU.

We propose a model for medium-term hydropower scheduling (MTHS) with variable head and uncertainty in inflow, reserve capacity, and energy price. With an increase of intermittent energy sources in the generation mix, it is expected that a flexible hydropower producer can obtain added profits by participating in other markets than just the energy market. To capture this added potential the hydropower system should be modeled with a higher level of details. In this context, we apply an algorithm based on stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) to solve the nonconvex MTHS problem, and show that the use of Strengthened Benders (SB) cuts to represent the expected future profit (EFP) function provide accurate scheduling results for slightly nonconvex problems. A method to visualize the EFP function in a dynamic programming setting is provided, serving as a useful tool for a priori inspection of the EFP shape and its nonconvexity.

{\bf Abstract.} \\ {\bf Background:} Bangladesh hosts more than 800,000 Rohingya refugees from Myanmar. The low health immunity, lifestyle, access to good healthcare services, social-security cause this population to be at risk of far more direct effects of COVID-19 than the host population. Therefore, evidence-based forecasting of the COVID-19 burden is vital in this regard. In this study, we aimed to forecast the COVID-19 burden among the Rohingya refugees of Bangladesh to keep up with the disease outbreak's pace, health needs, and disaster preparedness. \noindent{\bf Methodology and Findings:} To estimate the possible consequences of COVID-19 in the Rohingya camps of Bangladesh, we used a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious Recovered (SEIR) transmission model. All the values of different parameters used in this model were from the Bangladesh Government’s database and the relevant emerging literature. We addressed two different scenarios, i.e., the best-fitting model and good fitting model with unique consequences of COVID-19. Our best fitting model suggests that there will be good control over the transmission of the COVID-19 disease. At the end of December 2020, there will be only 169 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Rohingya refugee camps. The average basic reproduction number ($ \mathcal{R}_{0} $) has been estimated to be 0.7563. \noindent{\bf Conclusion:} Our analysis suggests that, due to the extensive precautions from the Bangladesh government as well as other humanitarian organizations, the coronavirus disease will be under control if the maintenance continues like this. Although detailed and pragmatic preparedness should be adopted for the worst scenario.

This paper elucidates the impact of uncertainty on the Markowitz asset allocation and how it performs. The findings imply that when evaluated out-of-sample, estimation errors in parameters might significantly affect how well an allocation performs. Numerous publications that address this ambiguity have been highlighted to emphasize our findings further. In our work, we compare these approaches to alternative allocation strategies and explain their performance in both expected and real out-of-sample events. We find that the Markowitz framework can be improved by using tactics that take uncertainty into account. Longer sample numbers, however, may not always translate into better outcomes. Applying a short-sale constraint can also enhance the initial portfolio. Finally, we find that even more basic approaches to asset allocation, such as equally weighted allocation, perform reasonably well.

InSAR and associated analytic methods enable relative surface deformation measurements from low Earth orbit with a potential accuracy of centimeters to millimeters. However, assessing the actual accuracy can be quite difficult. The analytic methods are complicated enough that naive analytic error propagation is infeasible, and, in many settings, InSAR practitioners lack sufficient ground truth to assess results. Phase noise due to partial decorrelation from changes in the scattering properties of the ground is a prominent source of accuracy loss. In this paper we present a method to assess the loss of precision due to this component of phase noise. The proposed method consists of generating synthetic data stacks whose statistical properties match those of the actual input SAR data stacks, and then using the synthetic data for an ensemble calculation. The spread of the results of the ensemble calculation indicates the loss of precision. We show examples of the ensemble analysis at a mining operation in South Africa, and demonstrate the ability to estimate the precision of two InSAR deformation retrieval methods on a point-by-point and epoch-by-epoch basis.

One of the most common forms of dementia is Alzheimer’s disease (AD), which leads to progressive mental deterioration. Unfortunately, there is no definitive diagnosis and cure that can stop the condition progressing. The diagnosis is often performed based on the clinical history and neuropsychological data, including magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Deep neural networks (DNN) algorithms are gaining popularity for medical diagnosis, and have been used widely for the analysis of MRI data. DNNs can extract hidden features from thousands of training images automatically. However, they cannot judge how confident they are about their predictions. To use DNNs in safety-critical applications such as medical diagnosis, uncertainty quantification of DNNs predictions is crucial. For this purpose, Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) has been widely used, however, it may lead to overconfident and miss calibrated results. This paper proposes a framework in which the MCD algorithm’s hyper-parameters are optimized during training using Bayesian optimization for the first time. The conducted optimization leads to assigning high predictive entropy to erroneous predictions and making it possible to recognize risky predictions. The proposed framework is used for AD diagnosis, which has not been done before. We compare our method with some existing methods in the literature based on different uncertainty quantification criteria. The results of comprehensive experiments on the Kaggle dataset using a deep model pre-trained on the ImageNet dataset show that the proposed algorithm can quantify uncertainty much better than the existing methods.

The entropy models have been recently adopted in many studies to evaluate the distribution of the shear stress in circular channels. However, the uncertainty in their predictions and their reliability remains an open question. We present a novel method to evaluate the uncertainty of four popular entropy models, including Shannon, Shannon-Power Low (PL), Tsallis, and Renyi, in shear stress estimation in circular channels. The Bayesian Monte-Carlo (BMC) uncertainty method is simplified considering a 95% Confidence Bound (CB). We developed a new statistic index called as FREE_opt-based OCB (FOCB) using the statistical indices Forecasting Range of Error Estimation (FREE) and the percentage of observed data in the CB (N_in), which integrates their combined effect. The Shannon and Shannon PL entropies had close values of the FOCB equal to 8.781 and 9.808, respectively, had the highest certainty in the calculation of shear stress values in circular channels followed by traditional uniform flow shear stress and Tsallis models with close values of 14.491 and 14.895, respectively. However, Renyi entropy with much higher values of FOCB equal to 57.726 has less certainty in the estimation of shear stress than other models. Using the presented results in this study, the amount of confidence in entropy methods in the calculation of shear stress to design and implement different types of open channels and their stability is determined.

In this paper, a two-stage stochastic programming modelling is proposed to design a multi-period, multistage, and single-commodity integrated forward/reverse logistics network design problem under uncertainty. The problem involves both strategic and tactical decision levels. The first stage deals with strategic decisions, which are the number, capacity, and location of forward and reverse facilities. At the second stage tactical decisions such as base stock level as an inventory policy is determined. The generic introduced model consists of suppliers, manufactures, and distribution centers in forward logistic and collection centers, remanufactures, redistribution, and disposal centers in reverse logistic. The strength of proposed model is its applicability to various industries. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming model and is solved by using Benders’ Decomposition (BD) approach. In order to accelerate the Benders’ decomposition, a number of valid inequalities are added to the master problem. The proposed accelerated BD is evaluated through small-, medium-, and large-sized test problems. Numerical results reveal that proposed solution algorithm increases convergence of lower bound and upper bound of BD and is able to reach an acceptable optimality gap in a convenient CPU time.

Among many research areas to which Ron Yager contributed are decision making under uncertainty (in particular, under interval and fuzzy uncertainty) and aggregation – where he proposed, analyzed, and utilized the use of Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA). The OWA algorithm itself provides only a specific type of data aggregation. However, it turns out that if we allows several OWA stages one after another, we get a scheme with a universal approximation property – moreover, a scheme which is perfectly equivalent to deep neural networks. In this sense, Ron Yager can be viewed as a (grand)father of deep learning. We also show that the existing schemes for decision making under uncertainty are also naturally interpretable in OWA terms.

How robust is our assessment of impacts to ecosystems and species from a rapidly changing climate during the 21st century? We examine the challenges of uncertainty, complexity and constraints associated with applying climate projections to understanding future biological responses. This includes an evaluation of how to incorporate the uncertainty associated with different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and climate models, and constraints of spatiotemporal scales and resolution of climate data into impact assessments. We describe the challenges of identifying relevant climate metrics for ecological models and evaluate the usefulness and limitations of different methodologies of applying climate change to both quantitative and qualitative ecological response models. We discuss the importance of incorporating extreme climate events and their stochastic tendencies in assessing ecological impacts and transformation, and provide recommendations for better integration of complex climate-ecological interactions at relevant spatiotemporal scales. We further recognize the compounding nature of uncertainty when accounting for our limited understanding of the interactions between climate and biological processes. Given the inherent complexity in ecological processes and their interactions with climate, we recommend integrating quantitative modeling with expert elicitation from diverse disciplines and experiential understanding of recent climate-driven ecological processes to develop more robust understanding of ecological responses under different scenarios of future climate change. Inherently complex interactions between climate and biological systems also provide an opportunity to develop wide-ranging strategies that resource managers can employ to prepare for the future.

: Mistrust, amplified by numerous artificial intelligence (AI) related incidents, has caused the energy and industrial sectors to be amongst the slowest adopter of AI methods. Central to this issue is the black-box problem of AI, which impedes investments and fast becoming a legal hazard for users. Explainable AI (XAI) is a recent paradigm to tackle this challenge. Being the backbone of the industry, the prognostic and health management (PHM) domain has recently been introduced to XAI. However, many deficiencies, particularly lack of explanation assessment methods and uncertainty quantification, plague this young field. In this paper, we elaborate a framework on explainable anomaly detection and failure prognostic employing a Bayesian deep learning model to generate local and global explanations from the PHM tasks. An uncertainty measure of the Bayesian model is utilized as marker for anomalies expanding the prognostic explanation scope to include model’s confidence. Also, the global explanation is used to improve prognostic performance, an aspect neglected from the handful of PHM-XAI publications. The quality of the explanation is finally examined employing local accuracy and consistency properties. The method is tested on real-world gas turbine anomalies and synthetic turbofan data failure prediction. Seven out of eight of the tested anomalies were successfully identified. Additionally, the prognostic outcome showed 19% improvement in statistical terms and achieved the highest prognostic score amongst best published results on the topic.

Sea-level rise is a problem increasingly affecting coastal areas worldwide. The existence of Free and Open-Source Models to estimate the sea-level impact can contribute to better coastal man-agement. This study aims to develop and to validate two different models to predict the sea-level rise impact supported by Google Earth Engine (GEE) – a cloud-based platform for planetary-scale environmental data analysis. The first model is a Bathtub Model based on the uncertainty of projections of the Sea-level Rise Impact Module of TerrSet - Geospatial Monitoring and Modeling System software. The validation process performed in the Rio Grande do Sul coastal plain (S Brazil) resulted in correlations from 0.75 to 1.00. The second model uses Bruun Rule formula implemented in GEE and is capable to determine the coastline retreat of a profile through the creation of a simple vector line from topo-bathymetric data. The model shows a very high cor-relation (0.97) with a classical Bruun Rule study performed in Aveiro coast (NW Portugal). The GEE platform seems to be an important tool for coastal management. The models developed have been openly shared, enabling the continuous improvement of the code by the scientific commu-nity.

Sea-level rise is a problem increasingly affecting coastal areas worldwide. The existence 15 of Free and Open-Source Models to estimate the sea-level impact can contribute to better coastal 16 management. This study aims to develop and to validate two different models to predict the 17 sea-level rise impact supported by Google Earth Engine (GEE) – a cloud-based platform for plan-18 etary-scale environmental data analysis. The first model is a Bathtub Model based on the uncer-19 tainty of projections of the Sea-level Rise Impact Module of TerrSet - Geospatial Monitoring and 20 Modeling System software. The validation process performed in the Rio Grande do Sul coastal 21 plain (S Brazil) resulted in correlations from 0.75 to 1.00. The second model uses Bruun Rule for-22 mula implemented in GEE and is capable to determine the coastline retreat of a profile through the 23 creation of a simple vector line from topo-bathymetric data. The model shows a very high correla-24 tion (0.97) with a classical Bruun Rule study performed in Aveiro coast (NW Portugal). The GEE 25 platform seems to be an important tool for coastal management. The models developed have been 26 openly shared, enabling the continuous improvement of the code by the scientific community.

This study rigorously investigates the impact of COVID-19 on the Tunisian stock market volatility. The investigation spans from January 2020 to December 2022, employing a GJR-GARCH model, bias-corrected wavelet analysis, and an ARDL approach. Specific variables related to health measures and government interventions are incorporated. The findings highlight that confirmed and death cases contribute significantly to the escalation in TUNINDEX volatility. Interestingly, certain indices related to government interventions exhibit no substantial impact on volatility, indicating a weak resilience of the Tunisian stock market amidst the challenges posed by COVID-19. However, the application of the bias-corrected wavelet analysis yields more nuanced outcomes in terms of correlations of volatility to the same metrics. Notably, the study recognizes the potential influence of uncertainties linked to the duration of lockdowns on financial market volatility. The positive and long-term impact on volatility of the US Equity Market uncertainty and VIX is evident through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), whereas economic policy uncertainty shows no significant impact. This indicates a potential vulnerability of the Tunisian stock market to future shocks, emphasizing the need for government efforts to instill investor confidence. This comprehensive exploration contributes to our understanding of the dynamics between the pandemic’ metrics, government interventions, and financial market stability. Our findings provide valuable insights for implementing risk management strategies amid the COVID‐19 crisis.

Understanding tourist behaviour during and after major tourism crises is essential to help destinations recover. The COVID-19 pandemic, a period of uncertainty and risk, makes it relevant to assess factors that influence travel intentions. There has been little research on tourist behaviour during health crises and, in particular, on perceived health risk and uncertainty effects on travel intentions. This study was carried out during the first months of the pandemic in Brazil and aims to investigate the role of health risk perception and intolerance of uncertainty on travel intentions for 2020 and 2021. We applied an online survey to 1,150 Brazilian participants from March to May of 2020. Our findings indicate that perceived COVID-19 severity, perceived probability of contracting it, and expected pandemic duration are significant predictors of travel intentions for both years. This paper sheds new light on tourist behaviour in the context of global health crises.

Results from a behavioral economic laboratory experiment are used to enhance our understanding of public health decisions made during the COVID-19 pandemic. The identification of systematic biases from optimal decision theory found in controlled experiments could help inform public policy design for future public health crises. The laboratory and the shelter-in-place decisions made during COVID-19 included elements of risk, uncertainty and ambiguity. The lab findings found individuals adopt different decision rules depending on both personal attributes and on the context and environment in which the decision task is conducted. Key observations to consider in the context of the COVID-19 decision environment include the importance of past experience, the ability to understand and calculate the odds of each action, the size and differences in economic payoffs given the choice, the value of information received, and how past statistical independent outcomes influence future decisions. The academic space encompassing both public health and behavioral economics is small, yet important, particularly in the current crisis. The objective of continued research in this area would be to develop a more representative model of decision-making processes, particularly during crisis, that would serve to enhance future public health policy design.

This paper develops the mathematical modeling and deflection control of a textile-reinforced composite integrated with shape memory actuators. The model of the system is derived using identification method and unstructured uncertainty approach. Based on this model and robust stability analysis a robust proportional-integral controller is designed for controlling the deflection of the composite. The performance of the proposed controller is compared with a classical one through experimental analysis.

Empirical equations representing, interpolating and smoothing groups of measurement results by regression methods are in widespread use in metrology and other fields of science and engineering. Standard equations for the propagation of measurement uncertainties to values computed from such equations are available but suffer from a lack of general acceptance and are only infrequently applied in practice. One reason for the slow uptake is the lack of clear methods to account for systematic error. In this paper, uncertainty propagation equations in terms of covariance matrices are generalized to allow for systematic errors in least-squares regression, and effects of the resulting uncertainties are investigated analytically. A stochastic ensemble model of systematic error is proposed for the computation of the non-diagonal elements of the weight matrix of the Generalized Least-Squares method (GLS) from the measurement uncertainty. A GLS projector formalism is described which separates the effects of measurement scatter on values calculated by the equation from those on the related “residuals”, i.e., the residual errors in the fitted data. The same projectors act similarly on the associated uncertainties and covariance matrices and permit the effects of systematic errors on the simulation covariance to be quantified. It is demonstrated that, in order to include systematic errors in the uncertainty estimates of GLS, covariance matrices may be substituted by novel, specifically defined dispersion matrices that are not specified yet by the GUM[1]. Systematic measurement errors may be estimated from various sources; a particularly easy way suggested here involves analyzing the structure in the regression residuals. It is demonstrated that GLS projectors exhibit inherent features of “error blindness” also with respect to systematic errors. [1] GUM: Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, http://www.bipm.org/en/publications/guides

The article contains the results of experimental studies for a multi-opening orifice with substitute constriction factor of β = 0.5 (m = 0.25), mounted in a DN50 hydraulic measuring flume. Flow measurements were taken for a progressing turbulent flow within Reynolds numbers (Re = 4700...19500). Based on experimental data, flow characteristics as well as discharge coefficient C characteristics were determined. Relative expanded uncertainty of determining a discharge coefficient C was estimated within the changes of volume flow qv from 0.35 dm3/s to 0.68 dm3/s. The value does not exceed 1.25% within the changes of Reynolds numbers 9800 ≤ Re ≤ 19500.

Supplier selection/replacement strategies and optimized purchasing policies play a key role in efficient supply chain management in today’s dynamic market. Here we study supplier replacement in a one-level assembly system (OLAS) producing one type of finished product. To assemble the product, we need to provide multi-type components, but assembly will be interrupted if any single component is missing, and incoming units will get hoarded until the missing component arrives. The assembly process can be interrupted by various sources of uncertainty, including delays in component deliveries. There is consequently a non-negligible risk that the assembly process may get stopped any moment. This brings inventory-related costs, which should be minimized. Here we consider discrete lead-time distributions to mimic industry-world reality. We present a model that takes into account not only optimal assignment of component order release dates but also replacement of a critical supplier. For a given unit, we model several alternative suppliers with alternative pricing and lead-time uncertainties, and we evaluate the impact on the total assembly system. For a more general case where several suppliers may be replaced, we propose a genetic algorithm.

Risk modelling along with multi-objective optimization problems have been at theepicenter of attention for supply chain managers. In this paper, we introduce a datasetfor risk modelling in sophisticated supply chain networks based on formal mathematical models. We have discussed the methodology and simulation tools used to synthesize the dataset. Additionally, the underlying mathematical models are discussed in granular details along with providing directions to conducting statistical analyses or neural machine learning models. The simulation is performed using MATLAB ™Simulink and the models are illustrated as well.

Coastal inundation is an increasing problem. Sea-level rise will greatly increase the frequency and depth of inundation, forcing vulnerable communities to adapt. Communities will need to decide when and how to adapt. The process of decision-making along adaptive pathways is now being used internationally to plan for adaptation over time by anticipating decision points in the future however it unfolds. This process requires risk and uncertainty considerations to be transparent in the scenarios used in such planning. We outline a framework for uncertainty identification and management within coastal hazard assessments which recognizes different types of decision and identifies the types of uncertainty that must be accounted for, such as statistical, scenario and deep uncertainty types. We show how coastal-inundation hazard can be mapped and presented in a way that clearly separates sources of uncertainty, so that they are transparent within a dynamic adaptive pathways planning process. Traditional coastal inundation maps show inundated area only. We present maps of inundation depth and frequency which clearly show the degree of exposure, where that exposure occurs, and how much sea-level rise can be tolerated. The new uncertainty framework and mapping techniques can better identify decision points and their expected time range, which provides more useful input to the adaptation process than traditional coastal inundation assessments.