The high penetration of distributed energy resources poses significant challenges to the dispatch and operation of power systems. Improving the accuracy of short-term load forecasting (STLF) can optimize grid management, leading to increased economic and social benefits. Currently, some simple AI and hybrid models has issues to deal with and struggle with multivariate dependencies, long-term dependencies, and non-linear relationships. This paper proposes a novel hybrid model for short-term load forecasting (STLF) that integrates multiple AI models with Lasso regression using the stacking technique. The base learners include ANN, XgBoost, LSTM, Stacked LSTM, and Bi-LSTM, while Lasso regression serves as the meta-learner. By considering factors such as temperature, rainfall, and daily electricity prices, the model aims to more accurately reflect real-world conditions and enhance predictive accuracy. Empirical analyses on real-world datasets from Australia and Spain show significant improvements in forecasting accuracy, with a substantial reduction in Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) compared to existing hybrid models and individual AI models. This research highlights the efficiency of the stacking technique in improving STLF accuracy, suggesting potential operational efficiency benefits for the power industry.

Commercial buildings are a significant consumer of energy worldwide. Logistics facilities, and specifically warehouses, are a common building type yet under-researched in the demand-side energy forecasting literature. Warehouses have an idiosyncratic profile when compared to other commercial and industrial buildings with a significant reliance on a small number of energy systems. As such, warehouse owners and operators are increasingly entering in to energy performance contracts with energy service companies (ESCOs) to minimise environmental impact, reduce costs, and improve competitiveness. ESCOs and warehouse owners and operators require accurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. This paper explores the performance of three machine learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)), three deep learning models (Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)), and a classical time series model, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for predicting daily energy consumption. The dataset comprises 8,040 records generated over an 11-month period from January to November 2020 from a non-refrigerated logistics facility located in Ireland. The grid search method was used to identify the best configurations for each model. The proposed XGBoost models outperform other models for both very short load forecasting (VSTLF) and short term load forecasting (STLF); the ARIMA model performed the worst.

With the global objectives of achieving a ‘carbon peak’ and ‘carbon neutrality’, along with the implementation of carbon reduction policies, China’s industrial structure has undergone significant adjustments, resulting in constraints on high-energy consumption and high-emission industries while promoting the rapid growth of green industries. Consequently, these changes have led to an increasingly complex power system structure and presented new challenges for electricity demand forecasting. To address this issue, this study proposes a 24-step multivariate time series short-term load forecasting algorithm model based on KNN data imputation and BiTCN bidirectional temporal convolutional networks combined with BiGRU bidirectional gated recurrent units and attention mechanism. The Kepler adaptive optimization algorithm (KOA) is employed for hyperparameter optimization to effectively enhance prediction accuracy. Furthermore, using real load data from a wind farm in Xinjiang as an example, this paper predicts the electricity load from January 1st to December 30th in 2019. Experimental results demonstrate that our comprehensive short-term load forecasting model exhibits lower prediction errors and superior performance compared to traditional methods, thus holding great value for practical applications.

Nowadays, power sector is an area that gather great scientific interest, due to events such as the increase in electricity prices in the wholesale energy market and new investments due to technological development in various sectors. These new challenges have in turn created new needs, such as the accurate prediction of the electrical load of the end users. On the occasion of the new challenges, Artificial Neural Networks approaches have become increasingly popular due to their ability to adopt efficiently to time-series predictions. In this paper, it is presented the development of a model which, through an automated process, will provide an accurate prediction of electrical load for the island of Thira in Greece. Through an automated application, deep learning load forecasting models have been created, such as Multilayer Perceptron, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Network One Dimensional (CNN-1D), CNN-LSTM, Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) and a proposed hybrid model called Convolutional LSTM Encoder-Decoder. The results in terms of prediction accuracy show satisfactory performances for all models, with the proposed hybrid model achieving the best accuracy.

Accurate forecasting of wind power generation plays a key role in improving the operation and management of a power system network and thereby its reliability and security. However, predicting wind power is complex due to the existence of high non-linearity in wind speed that eventually relies on prevailing weather conditions. In this paper, a novel hybrid deep learning model is proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of very short-term wind power generation for the Bodangora Wind Farm located in New South Wales, Australia. The hybrid model consists of convolutional layers, gated recurrent unit (GRU) layers and a fully connected neural network. The convolutional layers have the ability to automatically learn complex features from raw data while the GRU layers are capable of directly learning multiple parallel sequences of input data. The data sets of five-minute intervals from the wind farm are used in case studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model against other advanced existing models, including long short-term memory (LSTM), GRU, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM), which are tuned to optimise outcome. It is observed that the hybrid deep learning model exhibits superior performance over other forecasting models to improve the accuracy of wind power forecasting, numerically, up to 1.59 per cent in mean absolute error, 3.73 per cent in root mean square error and 8.13 per cent in mean absolute percentage error.

A reinforcement learning algorithm is proposed to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting (STLF) in this article. The proposed model integrates radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), support vector regression (SVR), and adaptive annealing learning algorithm (AALA). In the proposed methodology, firstly, the initial structure of RBFNN is determined by using SVR. Then, an AALA with time-varying learning rates is used to optimize the initial parameters of SVR-RBFNN (AALA-SVR-RBFNN). In order to overcome the stagnation for searching optimal RBFNN, a particle swarm optimization (PSO) is applied to simultaneously find promising learning rates in AALA. Finally, the short-term load demands are predicted by using the optimal RBFNN. The performance of the proposed methodology is verified on the actual load dataset from Taiwan Power Company (TPC). Simulation results reveal that the proposed AALA-SVR-RBFNN can achieve a better load forecasting precision as compared to various RBFNNs.

The intense motion of a ship can greatly impacts the comfort of crew members and the safety of the vessel. Therefore, accurately estimating and predicting ship attitudes has become an important issue. This paper introduces the latest development in functional deep learning model called DeepOnet. It takes wave height as input and ship motion as output, using a cause-to-result prediction approach. The modeling data used in this study is sourced from publicly available experimental data from the Iowa Institute of Hydraulic Research. Firstly, parameters system tuning was conducted for the neural network's hyperparameters to determine the appropriate combination of parameters. Secondly, the DeepOnet model for wave height and multi-degree-of-freedom motion was established, and the influence of increasing time steps on prediction accuracy was examined. Finally, a comparison was made between the DeepOnet model and the classical time series model LSTM. It was found that the DeepOnet model had a 10-fold improvement in accuracy for roll and heave attitudes. Moreover, as the forecast duration increased, the advantage of DeepOnet showed a trend of strengthening. As a functional prediction model, DeepOnet provides a new promising tool for very short-term prediction of ship motion.

A block-diagonal fuzzy neural network for short-term load forecasting is proposed. DBD-FELF consists of fuzzy rules with consequent parts that are neural networks with internal recurrence. These networks have a hidden layer which consists of pairs of neurons with feedback connections between them. The overall fuzzy model partitions the input space in partially overlapping fuzzy regions, where the recurrent neural networks of the respective rules operate. The partition of the input space and determination of the fuzzy rule base is performed by use of Fuzzy C-Means clustering algorithm and the RENNCOM constrained optimization method is applied for consequent parameter tuning. The electric load time-series of the Greek power system is examined, and hourly-based forecasting for the whole year is performed. The performance of DBD-FELF is tested via extensive experimental analysis and the results are promising, since an average percentage error of 1.18% is attained, along with an average yearly absolute error of 76.2 MW. Moreover, DBD-FELF is compared with Deep Learning, fuzzy and neurofuzzy rivals, such that its particular attributes are highlighted.

The power system has rapidly grown and expanded over the past decades and has been experiencing major changes and challenges. The increase in energy demand and the modern advancements in the smart grid, such as solar and wind energies and electric vehicles, have led to complexity and complications for utilities. A further layer of complexity and difficulty was added by the rapid expansion of behind-the-meter (BTM) photovoltaic (PV) systems with various designs and characteristic features. The rapid increase and the invisible solar power (BTM) have led to fluctuations in power grid stability and reliability and to inefficiency. Accurate forecasting of load generation will help to assure optimal planning, minimize the negative effects of the PV systems, and minimize the operational and maintenance costs. The authors propose a solution that uses combinations of K-means clustering with neural network machine learning models, AMI real-world PV load generation, and weather data to forecast the generation load at customer locations to achieve a 2.49% error between actual and predicted generation load.

In this paper, a systematic literature review is presented, through a survey in the main digital databases, about modelling methods for Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) for hourly electricity demand for residential electricity and to realize the performance evolution and impact of the Artificial Intelligent (AI) in STLF. With these specific objectives, it was developed a conceptual framework on the subject, a systematic review of the literature based on scientific publications with high impact and a bibliometric study directed to the scientific production of AI and STLF. The review of research articles over a 10-year period, which takes place between 2012-2022, uses the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) method. This research resulted in more than 300 articles, available in 4 (four) databases: Web of Science, IEEE Xplore, Scopus and Science Direct. The research was organized around 3 (three) central themes, which were defined through keywords: STLF, Electricity, Residential and their corresponding synonyms. 334 research articles were analyzed and identified the year of publication, journal, author, geography by continent and country and the area of application. Of the 334 documents found in the initial research and after applying the inclusion/exclusion criteria, which allowed delimiting the subject addressed in the topics of interest for analysis, 37 (thirty-seven) documents are in English (25 are journal articles and 12 are conference papers). The results point to a diversity of modelling techniques and associated algorithms. The corresponding performance is measured with different metrics and, therefore, cannot be compared directly. Hence, it should be desirable to have a unified data set together with a set of benchmarks with well-defined metrics for a clear comparison of all the modelling techniques and the corresponding algorithms.

This study proposes a short- and medium-term electricity consumption prediction algorithm by combining the GRU model suitable for long-term forecasting and the Prophet model suitable for seasonality and event handling. (1) Manufacturing Company B's Electricity consumption data and meteorological data in Naju, Jeollanam-do, South Korea are collected and preprocessed. (2) The preprocessed data proposes the Prophet model in the first step for seasonality and event handling prediction. (3) In the second step, seven multivariate data are experimented with GRU. Specifically, the seven multivariate data consist of six meteorological data and the residuals between the predicted data from the proposed Prophet model in Step 1 and the observed data. These are utilized to predict electricity consumption at 15-minute intervals. (4) Electricity consumption is predicted for short-term (2 days and 7 days) and medium-term (15 days and 30 days) scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the conventional Prophet model by more than 23 times and the modified GRU model by more than 2 times in terms of MAPE.

To enhance the safety of power grid operations, this study proposes a high-precision short-term photovoltaic power prediction method that integrates information from surrounding pho-tovoltaic stations and the Conv-LSTM-ATT model. In the deep learning prediction model, not only is numerical weather prediction (NWP) data from the target photovoltaic station used as input features, but also highly correlated features from nearby photovoltaic stations are incor-porated. The research begins by analyzing the correlation between irradiance and power se-quences, along with distance factors, to calculate a composite similarity index between the target and other regional photovoltaic stations. Stations with high similarity indices are then selected as data sources. Subsequently, Bayesian optimization techniques are employed to find the optimal data fusion ratios. Ultimately, using the selected data, power prediction mod-eling is conducted via the Conv-LSTM-ATT deep neural network. Experimental results con-firm the superiority of the proposed model, which demonstrates higher predictive accuracy compared to three other classical models. The data fusion strategy determined by Bayesian optimization significantly enhances prediction accuracy, reducing the root mean square error (RMSE) of the test set by 20.04%, 28.24%, and 30.94% for three weather types, respectively.

The prediction of hydrological flows (rainfall-depth or rainfall-discharge) is becoming increasingly important in the management of hydrological risks such as floods. In this study, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a state-of-the-art algorithm dedicated to time series, is applied to predict the daily water level of lake Nokoue in Benin. This paper aims to provide an effective and reliable method enable of reproducing the future daily water level of Lake Nokoue, which is influenced by a combination of two phenomena: rainfall and river flow (runoff from the Ouémé River, the Sô River, the Porto-Novo lagoon, and the Atlantic Ocean). Performance analysis based on the forecasting horizon indicates that LSTM can predict the water level of Nokoué Lake up to a forecast horizon of t+10 days. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) agree on a forecast horizon of up to t+3 days. The values of these metrics remain stable for forecast horizons of t+1 days, t+2 days, and t+3 days. The values of R² and NSE are greater than 0.97 during the training and testing phases in the Nokoué Lake basin. Based on the evaluation indices used to assess the model's performance for the appropriate forecast horizon of water level in the Nokoué lake basin, the forecast horizon of t+3 days is chosen for predicting future daily water levels.

Short-term energy consumption forecasting crucial for the operation of new electrical en-ergy grids, not only due to their own characteristics, but also due to the new elements pre-sent in the energy matrix. Many existing models are limited by their methodologies or by considering only a narrow set of factors influencing energy consumption. This study in-troduces a pipeline for developing an energy forecasting model and evaluates the signifi-cance of factors affecting energy consumption and, consequently, forecast accuracy. The study utilizes a dataset from ISO NE (Independent System Operator New England), span-ning the total electric load of various cities in New England from January 2017 to December 2019. This dataset comprises 23 independent variables, including weather data, economic indicators, and market information. The results outline the steps involved in constructing energy forecast models using time series analysis. By carefully selecting variables and rep-resenting external factors, the study demonstrates the feasibility of generating more accu-rate predictions with reduced computational resources.

The electric power distribution utility is responsible for providing energy to consumers in a continuous and stable way, failures in the electrical power system reduce the reliability indexes of the grid, directly harming its performance. For this reason, there is a need for failure prediction to reestablish power in the shortest possible time. Considering an evaluation of the number of failures over time, this paper proposes to perform a failure prediction during the first year of the pandemic in Brazil (2020) to verify the feasibility of using time series forecasting models for fault prediction. The Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model will be evaluated to obtain a forecast result that can be used by the electric power utility to organize the maintenance teams. The Wavelet transform shows to be promising in improving the predictive ability of the LSTM, making the Wavelet LSTM model suitable for the study at hand. The results show that the proposed approach has better results regarding the evaluation of the error in prediction and has robustness when a statistical analysis is performed.

This paper compares Demand Response algorithms suitable for Short-term Forecasting based on Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI). It selects ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average), SARIMA (Seasonal ARIMA), LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), and SVM (Support Vector Machine) as the primary research algorithms and delves into their theoretical foundations and functional characteristics. The theoretical background section explores each algorithm’s applicability in analyzing time-series data, recognizing nonlinear patterns, and solving optimization and classification problems. The methodology section will detail the methods of AMI data collection, the implementation of the algorithms, and the experimental setup. In the experiments and results section, the performance of each algorithm will be assessed by applying AMI data and presenting the outcomes of comparative analyses, with a focus on evaluating the predictive accuracy of the algorithms. The discussion will interpret the experimental results, analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of each algorithm and their applicability in the AMI system. It will also explore the limitations of the current research and directions for future research. The conclusion will summarize the key findings of the study and affirm how this research contributes to understanding and improving short-term forecasting and demand response systems based on AMI.

In this study, a computational method is proposed that employs Recurrent Convolutional 1 Neural Networks, utilizing meteorological radar images to forecast storm movement and intensity up 2 to 3 hours ahead, a process known as nowcasting. For this purpose, images from a radar situated in 3 southern Brazil were used. These data are publicly accessible on the website of the National Institute 4 for Space Research (INPE) in Brazil. The approach involves evaluating a spatiotemporal learning 5 recurrent convolutional neural network called PredRNN++. The results were validated through 6 case studies of storms within the radar’s coverage area. To evaluate the performance of the neural 7 network, both visual assessments and metrics such as RMSE and SSIM were employed. The findings 8 indicate that PredRNN++ was effective in simulating the shape and location of the meteorological 9 system.

Recognition, decoding and tracking of vortex patterns is of increasing importance in many fields reaching from astronomical observation of distant galaxies to turbulence phenomena in liquids or gases. Currently, coherent light beams with orbital angular momentum (OAM) are of particular interest for optical communication, metrology, micro-machining or particle manipulation. One common task is to identify characteristic spiral patterns in pixelated intensity maps at real-world signal-to-noise ratios. Recently, Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) was applied to the quantitative analysis of spiral interference patterns of OAM beams. Our study considers this approach in more detail. It is demonstrated that specific information can be extracted by combining conformal mapping by polar transform with determining one- or two-dimensional angular frequency spectra either in spatially fixed or scanning mode. Results of proof-of-principle experiments are presented.

In this work, a novel approach is presented for the multivariate prediction of hydrological variables, employing a specialized type of recurrent neural network (RNN) known as the long-term memory network (LSTM).The central objective is to develop a flood prediction model using data collected from two hydrological stations situated along the Atrato River in the Choc´o Department, Colombia. The interconnected variables of water level, water flow, and water precipitation are analyzed in this model to enhance flood prediction accuracy. The LSTM model, integrated into an RNN structure, is designed to capture the complex dynamics and cross-correlations inherent in these hydrological variables. Validation involves a comparison with linear and nonlinear Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous input (NARX) models, considering factors such as estimation error and computational time. Additionally, the study conducts further analysis for water level prediction under two scenarios: utilizing only outflow and inflow measurements or predicting outflow alongside measuring inflow, with the objective of utilizing the proposed approach as a flood early warning system. † This article is a revised and expanded version of a paper entitled Multivariable NARX based Neural Networks Models for Short-term Water Level Forecasting, which was presented at International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting (ITISE-2023), Gran Canaria, Spain, 12th-14th July, 2023.

Electricity demand forecasting plays a significant role in energy markets. Accurate prediction of electricity demand is the key factor to optimize power generation, consumption, saving energy resources, and determining the energy prices. However, integrating energy mix scenarios, including solar and wind power which are highly non-linear and seasonal, into an existing grid increases uncertainty in generation, adds the challenges for precise forecast. To tackle these challenges, state-of-the-art methods and algorithms have been implemented in literature. We have developed Artificial Intelligence (AI) based deep learning models that can effectively handle the information of long time-series data. Based on the pattern of dataset, four different scenarios were developed and two best scenarios were selected for prediction. Dozens of models were developed and tested in deep AI networks. In the first scenario (Scenario1), data for weekdays excluding holidays was taken and in the second scenario (Scenario2) all the data in the basket was taken. Remaining two scenarios, weekends and holidays were tested and neglected because of their high prediction error. To find the optimal configuration, models were trained and tested within a large space of alternatives called hyper-parameters. In this study, an Aritificial Neural Network (ANN) based Feed-forward Neural Network (FNN) showed the minimum prediction error for Scenario1 while a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based Gated Recurrent Network (GRU) showed the minimum prediction error for Scenario2. While comparing the accuracy, the lowest MAPE of 2.47% was obtained from FNN for Scenario1. When evaluating the same testing dataset (non-holidays) of Scenario2, the RNN-GRU model achieved the lowest MAPE of 2.71%. Therefore, we can conclude that grouping of weekdays as Senario1 prepared by excluding the holidays provides better forecasting accuracy compared to the single group approach used in Scenario2, where all the dataset is considered together. However, Scenario2 is equally important to predict the demand for weekends and holidays.

Accurately predicting electrical signals of three-phase Direct Torque Control (DTC) induction motors is crucial for optimal motor performance and effective condition monitoring. However, multiple DTC motors’ complexity and operating conditions’ variations pose challenges for traditional prediction methods. To overcome these challenges, we propose an innovative approach that combines Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to transform electrical motor simulation data and a Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) network to forecast processed motor data. By transforming the DTC induction motor signals from the time domain to the frequency domain, we enhance the capability of learning models to capture subtle differences and generate various input features. The Bi-LSTM model effectively captures both forward and backward dependencies in time series data, enabling accurate prediction of electrical signals. We evaluate the proposed approach using our simulated dataset and compare the proposed method to a state-of-the-art model, the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), demonstrating its effectiveness in improving the accuracy and reliability of induction motor signals forecasting. The finding provides valuable insights for advancing motor control and operation in industrial applications.

The goal of the study presented in this article is to investigate interconnection issues of the Intelligent Electrical Networks (IENs) with the existing ones, as well as the deployment of the appropriate load forecasting demand techniques. The concept of IENs has recently emerged as a potential solution to the global energy problem, due to the more flexible dispersed production units that are involved. In the same context, additional issues, such as the reduction of production-transfer-distribution costs as well as power losses are analyzed as well, via the penetration of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs). To this end, it is necessary to use appropriate advanced infrastructure, where in combination with modern telecommunication networks will make possible the full exploitation of IENs. Moreover, to make the electricity system more efficient, to avoid voltage and frequency imbalance issues and to implement optimal production and consumption planning, the Electric Load Forecast (ELF) is a vital process and plays a key role in the planning as well as in the management of electricity systems. Therefore, recent state of the art approaches in ELF methods are discussed as well.

The application of non-uniform spiral gratings to control structure, topological parameters and propagation of orbital angular momentum (OAM) beams was studied experimentally with coherent near-infrared light. Adapted digital spiral grating structures were programmed into the phase map of a high-resolution liquid-crystal-on-silicon spatial light modulator (LCoS-SLM). It is shown that characteristic spatio-spectral anomalies related to Gouy phase shift can be used as pointers to quantify rotational beam properties. Depending on sign and gradient of spatially variable periods of chirped spiral gratings (CSG), variations of rotation angle and angular velocity as a function of propagation distance were measured. Propagation-dependent self-torque is introduced in analogy to known local self-torque phenomena of OAM beams as obtained by the superposition of temporally chirped or phase modulated wavepackets.

Accurately predicting the power of solar power generation can greatly reduce the impact of the randomness and volatility of power generation on the stability of the power grid system, which is beneficial for the balanced operation and optimized dispatch of the power grid system, and reduces operating costs. Solar PV power generation depends on weather conditions, which are prone to large fluctuations under different weather conditions. Its power generation is characterized by randomness, volatility and intermittency. Recently, the demand for further investigation and effective use on the uncertainty of short-term solar PV power generation prediction has been getting increasing attention in many application of renewable energy sources. In order to improve the predictive accuracy of output power of solar PV power generation and develop a precise predictive model, the authors worked predictive algorithms for the output power of a solar PV power generation system. Moreover, since short-term solar PV power forecasting is one of the important aspects for optimizing the operation and control of renewable energy systems and electricity markets, this review focuses on the predictive models of solar PV power generation, which can be verified in the daily planning and operation of a smart grid system. In addition, the predictive methods in the reviewed literature are classified according to the input data source used for accurate predictive models, and the case studies and examples proposed are analyzed in detail. The contributions, advantages and disadvantages of the predictive probabilistic methods are compared. Finally, the future studies of short-term solar PV power forecasting is proposed.

As a vital component of the terrestrial ecosystem, grassland accounts for one-third of the global vegetation system. Grassland degradation has been exacerbated due to extreme overgrazing in China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR). While conservation was carried out as the Ecological Subsidy and Award Program (ESAP) to mitigate grassland degradation, little is known about its effectiveness in improving the biophysical conditions of grassland. This paper integrates the conceptual frameworks of total socio-environmental systems to assess how ecological systems respond to ESAP, investigate spatial heterogeneity of ESAP, and explore the meddling effects of socio-environmental interactions on ESAP. We integrate ecological, climate, and socioeconomic data and developed several hierarchical linear mixed models (HLMM) to investigate how these factors interact with ESAP in IMAR. Our findings prove that the above-ground biomass between 2011 and 2015 responds significantly to variations in socioeconomic conditions and ecological communities. Available land resources, hospital and medical facilities, and net farmer and herdsman income are the most critical factors contributing to grassland productivity. Primary industries like mining, total consumer retail value, farming, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery productions, and GDP are the most damaging factors affecting biomass. Our study recommends a regionally or locally tailored ecological recovery policy, instead of a generalized one, in the future effort to conserve grassland.

Due to the intermittency and fluctuation of photovoltaic (PV) output power, a high proportion of grid-connected PV power generation systems has a significant impact on power systems. Accurate PV power forecasting can alleviate the uncertainty of the PV power and is of great significance for the stable operation and scheduling of the power systems. Therefore, in this study, a feature rise-dimensional (FRD) two-layer ensemble learning (TLEL) model for short-term PV power deterministic forecasting and probability forecasting is proposed. First， based on the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), CatBoost, and Long-short-term memory (LSTM) models, a TLEL model is constructed utilizing the ensemble learning algorithm. Meanwhile, the FRD method is introduced to construct the FRD-XGBoost-LSTM (R-XGBL), FRD-RF-LSTM(R-RFL), and FRD- CatBoost - LSTM (R-CatBL) models. Subsequently, the above models are combined to construct the FRD-TLEL model for deterministic forecasting, and perform probability interval forecasting based on quantile regression(QR). Finally, the performance of the proposed model is demonstrated with a real-world dataset. By comparing with other models, the proposed model displays better forecasting accuracy for deterministic forecasting and reliable forecasting intervals for probability forecasting, and good generalization ability in the datasets of different seasons and weather types.

It is crucial to forecast the water demand accurately for supplying water efficiently and stably in a water supply system. In particular, accurately forecasting short-term water demand helps in saving energy and reducing operating costs. With the introduction of the Smart Water Grid (SWG) in a water supply system, the amount of water consumption is obtained in real time through an advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) sensor, which can be used for forecasting the short-term water demand. The models widely used for water demand forecasting include the autoregressive integrated moving average, radial basis function-artificial neural network, quantitative multi-model predictor plus, and long short-term memory. However, there is a lack of research on assessing the performance of models and forecasting the short-term water demand by applying the data on the amount of water consumption by purpose and the pipe diameter of an end-use level of the SWG demonstration plant in each demand forecasting model. Therefore, in this study, the short-term water demand was forecasted for each model using the data collected from the AMI, and the performance of each model was assessed. The Smart Water Grid Research Group installed ultrasonic-wave-type AMI sensors in the block 112 located in YeongJong Island, Incheon, and the actual data used for operating the SWG demonstration plant were adopted. The performance of the model was assessed by using the residual, root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) as indices. The water demand forecast was slightly underestimated in models that employed the assessment results based on the RMSE and NRMSE. Furthermore, the forecasting accuracy was low for the NSE due to a large number of negative values; the correlation between the observed and forecasted values of the PCC was not high, and it was difficult to forecast the peak amount of water consumption. Therefore, as the short-term water demand forecasting models using only time and the amount of water consumption have limitations in reflecting the characteristics of consumers, a water supply system can be managed more precisely if other factors (weather, customer behavior, etc.) influencing the water demand are applied.

Human milk (HM) is the gold standard for feeding infants but has been associated with slower growth in preterm infants compared with preterm formula. This systematic review and meta-analysis summarises the post-1990 literature to examine the effect of HM feeding on growth during the neonatal admission of preterm infants with birth weight ≤1500g and/or born ≤28 weeks’ gestation. Medline, PubMed, CINAHL and Scopus were searched, and comparisons grouped as: exclusive human milk (EHM) vs exclusive preterm formula (EPTF), any HM vs EPTF and higher vs lower doses of HM. We selected studies that used fortified HM and compared that with a PTF; studies comparing unfortified HM and term formula were excluded. Experimental and observational studies were pooled separately. The GRADE system was used to evaluate risk of bias and certainty of evidence. Forty-four studies were included with 37 (n =9,963 infants) included in the meta-analyses. In general, due to poor quality studies, evidence of the effect of any HM feeds or higher versus lower doses of HM was inconclusive. There was a possible effect that lower doses of HM compared with higher doses of HM improved weight gain during the hospital admission, and separately, a possible effect of increased head circumference growth in infants fed EPTF vs any HM. The clinical significance of this is unclear. There was insufficient evidence to determine the effects of an exclusive HM diet on any outcomes.

Electricity load forecasting is a crucial undertaking within all the deregulated markets globally. In contemporary times, the transition from conventional electricity grids to Smart Grids constitutes an area where extensive research is conducted on a global scale. Among the research challenges, the investigation of Deep Transfer Learning (DTL) in the field of electricity load forecasting represents a fundamental effort that imparts generality to Artificial Intelligence applications, due to new capabilities, such as knowledge transfer and computational power reduction. In this paper a comprehensive study is conducted for day-ahead electricity load forecasting. For this purpose, three Sequence-to-Sequence (Seq2seq) Deep Learning (DL) models are used, namely the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and the Ensemble Learning Model (ELM), which is consisted of the weighted combination of the outputs of MLP and CNN models. Also, the study focuses on the development of different forecasting strategies based on DTL and emphasizing the way the datasets are trained and fine-tuning for higher forecasting accuracy. In order to implement the forecasting strategies using Deep Learning models, load datasets from three Greek islands, Rhodes, Lesvos, and Chios, are used. The main purpose is to apply DTL for day-ahead predictions (1-24 hours) for each month of the year for Chios dataset after training and fine-tuning the models using the datasets of the three islands in various combinations. After several trials, four DTL strategies are illustrated. In the first strategy (DTL Case 1), each of the three DL models is trained using only Lesvos dataset, while fine-tuning is performed on the dataset of Chios island, in order to create day-ahead predictions for Chios load. In the second strategy (DTL Case 2), data from both Lesvos and Rhodes concurrently are used for the DL model training period, and fine-tuning is performed on the data from Chios. The third DTL strategy (DTL Case 3) contains the training of the DL models using Lesvos dataset, and the testing period performed directly on the Chios dataset without fine-tuning. The fourth strategy is a Multi-task Deep Learning (MTDL) approach, which has been extensively studied in recent years. In MTDL, the three DL models are trained simultaneously on all three datasets and the final predictions are made on the unknown part of the dataset of Chios. In this paper, we explore the performance of DTL and compare the results with those produced with MTDL. The results demonstrated that DTL can be applied with high efficiency for day-ahead load forecasting. Specifically, the two cases with fine-tuning (DTL Case 1 and 2) outperformed MTDL in terms of load prediction accuracy. Regarding the DL models, all three exhibit very high prediction accuracy, especially in the two cases with fine-tuning. The ELM excels compared to the single models. More specifically, for conducting day-ahead predictions, it has been concluded that the MLP model presents best monthly forecasts with a MAPE of 6.24% and 6.01% for the first two cases, the CNN model presents best monthly forecasts with a MAPE of 5.57% and 5.60% respectively and the ELM model achieves best monthly forecasts with a MAPE of 5.29% and 5.31%, respectively, indicating the very high accuracy it can achieve.

Mammarenavirus Wenzhouense (WENV) is broadly distributed in Asia, while the he dynamics process of WENV infection remains unclear. A field derived strain of WENV was used to inoculate Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats by intramuscular injection, the process of virus infection was de-tected by controlling time for 28 days. Viral RNA became detectable in the blood at 3 d pi, and remained detectable for about 12 d. In most organ tissues, viral RNA peaked at 7 d pi, then began to decline by 14 d, however remained detectable in intestine and brain tissues at 21 and 28 d pi. Virus shedding had been detected from fecal samples for 5 days from 6 to 11 d pi using qRT-PCR, and was recovered from feces collected at 8 d pi. Horizontal contact infection occurred among cage-mates at 14 and 21 d pi. Antibodies against the nucleocapsid were detected at 5 dpi, next increased and persisted until the end of experiment. The results enabled to discriminate the kinetic of viremic response, virus shedding in feces and horizontal transmission, as well as the potential sites for WENV replication or maintenance of the virus in nature.

Developing short-term forecasting model for global atmospheric temperature and wind in the near space is crucial for understanding atmospheric dynamics and supporting human activities in this region. While numerical models have been extensively developed, deep learning techniques have recently shown promise in improving atmospheric forecasting accuracy. In this study, convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) and convolutional gated recurrent unit (ConvGRU) neural networks were applied to build for short-term global-scale forecasting model of atmospheric temperature and wind in the `near space based on the MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset from 2010-2022. The model results showed that the ConvGRU model outperforms the ConvLSTM model in the short-term forecast results. The ConvGRU model achieved a root mean square error in the first three hours of approximately 1.8 K for temperature predictions, and errors of 4.2 m/s and 3.8 m/s for eastward and northward wind predictions, respectively.

This paper addresses the evolving landscape of electricity markets in Europe, with a focus on the integration of Renewable Energy Communities as introduced by the Renewable Energy Directive 2018/2001. Residents within a postal code area are highly incentivized to join a community, which enables them to exchange energy among themselves at lower procurement costs. Thereby, energy management systems optimize the operation of respective energy systems, with electrical load forecasting playing a key role. Given that prosumers may switch between communities on a daily basis, electricity demands within these groups will vary, leading to data that is non-stationary, discontinuous as well as non-identical and independently distributed. To encounter this issue, we propose a sophisticated forecasting model that applies federated learning, using informations from various distributed communities to learn domain-invariant features. To achieve this, we initially utilize synthetic electrical load time series at district level and aggregate them to profiles of Renewable Energy Communities with dynamic portfolios. Subsequently, we develop a forecasting model that accounts for the composition of residents of a Renewable Energy Community, adapt data pre-processing in accordance with the time series process, and detail a federated learning algorithm that incorporates weight averaging and data sharing. Following the training of various experimental setups, we ultimately evaluate their effectiveness. The findings suggest that our proposed framework is capable of effectively forecast non-stationary and discontinuous time series and that it can be applied to new, unseen data through the integration of knowledge from multiple sources.

Electricity demand forecasting has been a real challenge for power system scheduling in the different levels of the energy sectors. Various computational intelligence techniques and methodologies have been employed in the electricity market for load forecasting; although, scant evidence is available about the feasibility of each of these methods considering the type of data and other potential factors. This work introduces several scientific, technical rationale behind intelligent forecasting methods, based on the work of previous researchers in the field of energy. The fundamental benefits and main drawbacks of the aforementioned methods are discussed in order to depict the efficiency of each approach in various situations. In the end, a proposed hybrid strategy is represented.

Electricity demand forecasting has been a real challenge for power system scheduling in the different levels of the energy sectors. Various computational intelligence techniques and methodologies have been employed in the electricity market for load forecasting; although, scant evidence is available about the feasibility of each of these methods considering the type of data and other potential factors. This work introduces several scientific, technical rationale behind intelligent forecasting methods, based on the work of previous researchers in the field of energy. The fundamental benefits and main drawbacks of the aforementioned methods are discussed in order to depict the efficiency of each approach in various situations. In the end, a proposed hybrid strategy is represented.

Electric vehicles are in focus and growing, with new adoptions every day. Its wide use represents a new scenario and challenge for the electrical power system due to the high charge storage requirements. Predicting these loads using artificial neural networks proves to be a very efficient tool for solving time series. This work uses a multilayer perceptron network through supervised backpropagation training with Bayesian regularization to improve generalization, reducing overfit- ting errors. In this research, the aggregation of the actual consumption of 200 homes and 348 plug-in electric vehicles is used in the training and forecasting process, and to validate the method developed, MAPE was used. Short-term forecasts were made considering the year’s four seasons, predicting the next 24 hours of total aggregate demand from homes and vehicles. The methodology presented significant and relevant results using hybrid training for the problem, with the potential to be applied in the real world.

This study presents a novel approach for predicting hierarchical short time series. In this article, our objective was to formulate long-term forecasts for household natural gas consumption by considering the hierarchical structure of territorial units within a country's administrative divisions. For this purpose, we utilized natural gas consumption data from Poland. The length of the time series was an important determinant of the data set. We contrast global techniques, which employ a uniform method across all time series, with local methods that fit a distinct method for each time series. Furthermore, we compare the conventional statistical approach with a machine learning (ML) approach. Based on our analyses, we devised forecasting methods for short time series that exhibit exceptional performance. We have demonstrated that global models provide better forecasts than local models. Among ML models, neural networks yielded the best results, with the MLP network achieving comparable performance to the LSTM network while requiring significantly less computational time.

To minimise environmental impact, avoid regulatory penalties, and improve competitiveness, energy-intensive manufacturing firms require accurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. Deep learning is widely touted as a superior analytical technique to traditional artificial neural networks, machine learning, and other classical time series models due to its high dimensionality and problem solving capabilities. Despite this, research on its application in demand-side energy forecasting is limited. We compare two benchmarks (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and an existing manual technique used at the case site) against three deep learning models (simple Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)) and three machine learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVM), Random Forest, and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN)) for short term load forecasting (STLF) using data from a Brazilian thermoplastic resin manufacturing plant. We use the grid search method to identify the best configurations for each model, and then use Diebold-Mariano testing to confirm the results. Results suggests that the legacy approach used at the case site is the worst performing, and that the GRU model outperformed all other models tested.

This study introduces a comparative analysis of two deep learning (multilayer perceptron neural networks (MLP-NN) and the long short term memory networks (LSTMN)) models for transit travel time prediction. The two models were trained and tested using one-year worth of data for a bus route in Blacksburg, Virginia. In this study, the travel time was predicted between each two successive stations to all the model to be extended to include bus dwell times. Additionally, two additional models were developed for each category (MLP of LSTM): one for only segments including controlled intersections (controlled segments) and another for segments with no control devices along them (uncontrolled segments). The results show that the LSTM models outperform the MLP models with a RMSE of 17.69 sec compared to 18.81 sec. When splitting the data into controlled and uncontrolled segments, the RMSE values reduced to 17.33 sec for the controlled segments and 4.28 sec for the uncontrolled segments when applying the LSTM model. Whereas, the RMSE values were 19.39 sec for the controlled segments and 4.67 sec for the uncontrolled segments when applying the MLP model. These results demonstrate that the uncertainty in traffic conditions introduced by traffic control devices has a significant impact on travel time predictions. Nonetheless, the results demonstrate that the LSTMN is a promising tool that can has the ability to account for the temporal correlation within the data. The developed models are also promising tools for reasonable travel time predictions in transit applications.

A new model for international bed numbers is applied to local area populations for English Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) where the Age Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR) is used as a measure of population health and hence for total occupied hospital bed demand (elective plus emergency admission types, including acute, rehabilitation, mental health, and maternity), rather than simple bed availability. A 100-unit increase in ASMR (European Standard population) leads to a 15.3 – 30.7 (feasible range) unit increase in occupied beds per 1,000 deaths. ASMR shows why the Australian states of the Northern Territory and Tasmania have an intrinsic higher bed demand than the other states – although in both cases the bed planning methodologies failed to indicate this need and both states show a large bed deficit. Due to the high volatility in bed demand the average bed demand for 2019 was determined by a linear trend using data for 2014/15 to 2019/20 — as the pre-COVID-19 baseline. The slope of the relationship between occupied beds per 1,000 deaths and deaths per 1,000 population shows a power law function. As is to be expected there is scatter around the trend line which will partly arise from uncertainty in the expected occupied beds in 2019, fluctuations in both ASMR and deaths per 1,000 population from one year to another, changes in the number of persons on the elective, outpatient and diagnostic waiting lists, and local area variation in births and consequently upon maternity, neonatal and pediatric bed demand. Additional variation in bed demand will arise from differences in the level of funding for social care, especially elderly care, and to a lesser extent upon patients using private health care, and charitable hospices for palliative care. However, after including the change in bed demand arising from ASMR the model is sufficiently accurate to identify gross differences in bed demand as a prelude to further investigation. The model requires further extension to cover specialty-level demand, and perhaps segregation between elective and emergency types of inpatient demand. A method for benchmarking the whole hospital’s average bed occupancy is given which enables them to run at optimum efficiency and safety. Using this method English hospitals can be shown to operate at highly disruptive and unsafe levels of bed occupancy leading to deleterious ‘turn-away’. Turn-away implies bed unavailability for the next arriving patient. The problems associated with crafting effective bed planning are illustrated using the English NHS as an example.

: Leveraging the sustainability of the power system market, researchers have developed various ML models for forecasting electricity demand. The LSSVM is well suited to handle complex non-linear power load series. However, the less optimal regularization parameter and the Gaussian kernel function in the LSSVM model have contributed to flawed forecasting accuracy and random generalization ability. Thus, these parameters of LSSVM need to be chosen appropriately using intelligent optimization algorithms. This study proposes a hybrid model based on the LSSVM optimized by the IBFOA for forecasting the daily electricity load in Peninsular Malaysia. The IBFOA for parameter optimization of LSSVM is introduced. The IBFOA based on the sine cosine equation is proposed to adjust the constant step size in the BFOA, which creates an imbalance between the exploration and exploitation during optimization. Finally, the load forecasting model based on LSSVM-IBFOA is constructed using MAPE as the objective function. Comparative analysis demonstrates the model, achieving the highest R2 (0.9880) and significantly reducing error metrics (MAPE, MAE, RMSE, MSE, NRMSE) compared to the baseline LSSVM (average reduction of 27.72% to 47.72%). Additionally, IBFOA exhibits faster convergence and higher accuracy compared to BFOA, highlighting the accuracy of LSSVM-IBFOA for short-term load forecasting.

The Eastern Kunlun Fault Zone (EKFZ) is located in a seismic blank area. This study investigates the hydrogeochemical characteristics of varied-temperature springs in the EKFZ to understand the relationship between fractures, fluids and earthquakes. It aids in establishing their induction mechanisms and assists in monitoring the earthquake precursors of the EKFZ. In this study, the main elements, trace elements, hydrogen and oxygen isotopes and strontium isotopes of 23 varied-temperature springs in the EKFZ were analyzed. The results reveal the source of groundwater recharge, hydrochemical types, mineral saturation, and for a select few springs indicative of geothermal activity, collected geothermal reservoir temperatures. The study also explores the relationship between earthquakes and springs, identifying sensitive chemical indicators. Based on continuous monitoring at Maqu Station, we found that before the occurrence of the Maerkang Ms 6.0 earthquake, the concentration of Cl− rose by 2.9 times, and 46 days before the Gande earthquake (Ms = 4.7), the concentrations of Na+ and SO42− significantly increased. Finally, a conceptual model of the hydrogeochemistry of springs is presented to describe the groundwater circulation in the study area. This research is of great significance for the analysis of fluid geochemistry in this area and for assessing the seismic hazards of the EKFZ.

Launched on 2 February 2018, CSES is the first constellation in China to advance our understanding of seismo-ionospheric influence and lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling process in electromagnetic environment during earthquake prediction practice. For this purpose, a software platform developed for automatically searching ionospheric perturbations from the CSES plasma data had been put into service immediately after the Wushi MS 7.1 earthquake occurred on 23 January 2024 to weekly detect possible precursory information before impending aftershocks. Effective ionospheric variations were successfully detected two times during more than four weeks. An ionospheric perturbation with an enhanced magnitude 38.3% was primarily detected on electron density but none on ion density on 24 January 2024 at night orbit 33175 and the corresponding variations in different parameters recorded at the same orbit presented a complex features. There irregularities possibly combined with influence both from three following strong aftershocks with magnitudes over 5.0 during 25–30, January and magnetic storm disturbance due to Kp value once up to 3.7 on 24 January. An electron perturbation with an amplitude 24.6%, as well as an ion one with 27.3%, was successfully searched automatically at the same revisiting orbit 33251 occurred on the revisiting date of 3 February 2024 in a magnetic quiet period. These two plasma variations, as well as ones on other ionospheric parameters, were characterized by highly similar properties, which increases the availability as seismic precursors. However, no obvious variations had been observed at other revisiting orbits or other orbits near the aftershock areas during this period till the occurrence of a magnitude 5.3 earthquake on 24 February and the strongest one 5.8 on 25 February, respectively, 20 days after and 1000 km away.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by impairments in social interaction and communication, anxiety, hyperactivity, and restricted interest for specific subjects. In addition to the genetic factors, multiple environmental factors have been related to the development of ASD. Animal models can serve as crucial tools for understanding the complexity of ASD and identifying potential therapeutic strategies. In this study, a chemical model of ASD has been developed in zebrafish by exposing embryos to valproic acid (VPA) from 4 to 48 hours post-fertilization. After the exposure, embryos were transferred to fish water and the effects on behavior and neurotransmitters profile were analyzed at both larval and adult stages. Larvae from VPA-treated embryos showed hyperactivity and decreased visual and vibrational escape responses, as well as an altered neurotransmitters profile, with increased glutamate and decreased acetylcholine and norepinephrine levels. Adults from VPA-treated embryos exhibited impaired social behavior characterized by larger shoal sizes and a decreased interest for their conspecifics. Neurotransmitter analysis revealed a significant decrease in dopamine and GABA levels in the brain. These results support the interest of this model in the study of ASD.

We reviewed various physical and biological manifestations of an unprecedented large-scale water temperature anomaly that emerged in the Northeast Pacific in late 2013. The anomaly dubbed “The Blob” persisted through 2014-2016, with some signs of its persistence through 2017-2018 and a possible reemergence in 2019. The tentative timeline of The Blob’s successive appearances around the Northeast Pacific is suggestive of its advection by currents around the Gulf of Alaska, along the Aleutians, into the Bering Sea, and eventually to the Bering Strait. During the initial phase of The Blob’s development in 2013-2014, advection along the Polar Front might have played a certain role. The extreme persistence and magnitude of The Blob resulted in numerous and sometimes dramatic ecosystem responses in the eastern Bering Sea. The multi-year duration of The Blob might have preconditioned the Bering Sea for the record low seasonal sea ice extent during the winter of 2017-2018 and disappearance of the cold pool in 2016 and 2018 that profoundly affected zooplankton, invertebrates, fishes, sea birds, and marine mammals. Comparison of time-series of population responses across trophic levels suggests that The Blob lowered primary production during spring, increasing small copepod production and jellyfish, and reducing energy transfer efficiently to higher trophic levels. While the Bering Sea’s water temperature, seasonal sea ice, and cold pool seem to return to the long-term mean state in 2022, it remains to be seen if the Bering Sea ecosystem will completely recover. The two most likely alternative scenarios envision either irreversible changes or hysteresis recovery.

Coastal wave modeling and forecasting are essential in oceanography, sustainable marine energy, and ocean engineering. Precise forecasting of wave speed and direction are crucial for offshore operations, marine energy, risk management, environmental management, coastal and sustainable maritime management. The coastline of Brunei Darussalam can generate between 15 and 126 Giga Watt of wave energy. In this experimental research, we used two numerical approaches, the finite difference, and spectral element methods, to model and simulate wave speed and direction. We calculated the mean error between numerical and analytical solutions. We proposed a novel, promising, univariate time series forecasting model by combining the Long Short-Term (LSTM) with KerasTuner hyperparameters tuning and optimization techniques. This method helps us to improve the accuracy and efficiency of time-series forecasting.. The experimental data was computed from high-precision Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) sensor data. This research is part of the preliminary feasibility analysis of wave energy production in Brunei Darussalam and net zero commitment for a sustainable environment. Seven independent forecast experiments were performed for wave speed and direction in degree and radian units for 1, 3, 6, 8, 10, 12, and 24 hours. Mean squared error (MSE) was adopted as a metric for both training and testing. The experimental results reveal that the wave speed forecast has the lowest MSE compared to direction, regardless of the unit of measure, but has a longer duration. In addition, the direction forecast in the degree unit has the lowest errors compared to the unit of radians; the latter has a longer running time than the former. The model has delivered optimal results throughout the experiments with minor training and test errors. We conducted a thorough evaluations on two benchmark time series datasets, which include the study dataset and air quality index dataset, to validate the performance of the proposed model with other models. The proposed model outperforms cutting-edge forecasting models, such as the conventional LSTM, ARIMA, and Prophet. The model has the slightest forecast error compared to the existing literature’s result.

Deep underground laboratories offer advantages for conducting high-precision observations of weak geophysical signals, benefitting from a low background noise level. It is both valuable and feasible to enhance strong, noisy ground electromagnetic (EM) field data using synchronously recorded underground EM signals, which typically exhibit a high signal-to-noise ratio. In this study, we propose an EM field reconstruction method employing a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network with referenced deep underground EM observations. Initially, a deep learning model was developed to capture the time-varying features of underground multi-component EM fields using the LSTM recurrent neural network. Subsequently, this model was applied to process synchronously observed strong, noisy data from other conventional observation systems, such as those at surface, to achieve noise suppression through signal reconstructions. Both theoretical analysis and practical observational data suggest that the proposed method effectively suppresses noise and reconstructs clean EM signals. This method is efficient and time-saving, representing an effective approach to fully utilizing the advantages of deep underground observation data. Furthermore, this method could be extended to the processing and analysis of other geophysical data.

In recent years, transformer-based models have gained prominence in multivariate long-term time series forecasting (LTSF), demonstrating significant advancements despite facing challenges such as high computational demands, difficulty in capturing temporal dynamics, and managing long-term dependencies. The emergence of LTSF-Linear, with its straightforward linear architecture, has notably outperformed transformer-based counterparts, prompting a reevaluation of the transformer's utility in time series forecasting. In response, this paper presents an adaptation of a recent architecture termed extended LSTM (xLSTM) for LTSF. xLSTM incorporates exponential gating and a revised memory structure with higher capacity that has good potential for LTSF. Our adopted architecture for LTSF termed as xLSTMTime surpasses current approaches. We compare xLSTMTime's performance against various state-of-the-art models across multiple real-world datasets, demonstrating superior forecasting capabilities. Our findings suggest that refined recurrent architectures can offer competitive alternatives to transformer-based models in LTSF tasks, potentially redefining the landscape of time series forecasting.

Background: Pediatric mallet finger injuries lack specific treatment guidelines, necessitating an exploration of effective techniques. Our aim was to evaluate the outcomes of the extension block technique in adolescent mallet finger management. Methods: A comprehensive retrospective analysis was conducted involving 36 adolescents who underwent surgery between 2014 and 2022. Ishiguro’s extension block pinning technique was the primary method employed. Treatment outcomes were evaluated using Crawford's criteria, and complications were also assessed. Results: Bone union was achieved in all cases with a mean union time of 42 days (range: 30-92 days). According to Crawford's criteria, 27 cases (75%) were classified as excellent, 5 cases (14%) as good, and 4 cases (11%) as fair. Minimal complications were observed, including three cases (8%) of superficial infections, one case (3%) of dermal necrosis, and another rare instance (3%) of osteomyelitis. No cases of poor outcomes or significant long-term complications were noted. The average follow-up period was 8.6 months (range: 2-42 months). Conclusions: Ishiguro’s extension block technique is a promising surgical option for adolescent mallet fingers. Its adoption could enhance pediatric orthopedic care, offering a valuable child-friendly treatment alternative.

The influence of short term water absorption on the mechanical properties of halloysite nanotubes-multi layer graphene reinforced polyester hybrid nanocomposites has been investigated. The addition of nano-fillers significantly increased the flexural strength; tensile strength and impact strength in dry and wet conditions. After short term water exposure; the maximum microhardness; tensile; flexural and impact toughness values were observed at 0.1 wt% MLG. The microhardness increased up to 50.3%; tensile strength increased up to 40% and flexural strength increased up to 44%. Compared to dry samples; the fracture toughness and surface roughness of all types of produced nanocomposites were increased that may be attributed to plasticization effect. Scanning electron microscopy revealed that the main failure mechanism is caused by the weakening of nano-filler-matrix interface induced by water absorption. It was further observed that synergistic effects were not effective at concentration of 0.1 wt% to produce considerable improvement in mechanical properties of produced hybrid nanocomposites.

The load of power system changes with the development of economy, short-term load forecasting play a very important role in dispatching and management of power system. In this paper, the Ant Lion Optimizer (ALO) is introduced to improve the input weights and hidden-layer Matrix of extreme learning machine (ELM), after the parameters of ELM are optimized by ALO, then input nodes, hidden layer nodes and output nodes are determined, so a load forecasting model based on ALO-ELM combined algorithm is established. The proposed method is illustrated based on the historical load data of a city in China. The results show that the average absolute error of short-term load demand predicted by ALO-ELM model is 1.41, while that predicted by ELM is 4.34, the proposed ALO-ELM algorithm is superior to the ELM and meet the requirements of engineering accuracy, which proves the effectiveness of proposed method.

Buildings have started to play a critical role in the stability and resilience of modern smart grids, leading to a refocusing of large scale energy management strategies from the supply side to the consumer side. When the buildings integrate local renewable energy generation in the form of renewable energy resources they become prosumers and this reflects into additional complexity into the operation of the interconnected complex energy systems. A class of methods of modelling the energy consumption patterns of the building have recently emerged as black-box input-output approaches with the ability to capture underlying consumption trends. These make use and require large quantities of quality data produces by non-deterministic processes underlying the energy consumption. We present an application of a class of neural networks, namely deep learning techniques for time series sequence modelling with the goal of accurate and reliable building energy load forecasting. The Recurrent Neural Network implementation uses Long Short-Term Memory layers in increasing density of nodes to quantify prediction accuracy. The case study is illustrated on four university buildings from temperate climates over one year of operation using a reference benchmarking dataset that allows replicable results. The obtained results are discussed in terms of accuracy metrics and computational and network architecture aspects and are considered suitable for further used in future in situ energy management at the building and neighbourhood levels.

This study introduces a novel method for early prediction of Kimchi cabbage (Brassica rapa subsp. pekinensis (Lour.) Hanelt) height, utilizing drone imagery and a long short-term memory (LSTM) model. The research was conducted on a testbed at the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences (NAS) in South Korea, encompassing two distinct soil types (loam and sandy loam) to investigate their impact on growth. High-resolution drone images were captured throughout the growing season to generate a canopy height model (CHM) for estimating plant height at various stages. Missing height data were interpolated using a logistic growth curve, and an LSTM model was trained on this data to predict the final height of Kimchi cabbage at harvest. Three LSTM models were developed using time-series data collected at 29, 36, and 44 days after planting (DAP). The model trained on data from DAP 44 demonstrated the highest accuracy with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.83, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.48 cm, and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.26 cm, outperforming models trained on earlier data. Color-coded maps were generated to visualize the spatial distribution of predicted Kimchi cabbage heights, revealing variations in growth patterns across the testbed and confirming the model's potential for site-specific management. Considering the trade-off between accuracy and prediction timing, the model trained on DAP 36 data (MAE = 2.77 cm) was deemed optimal for informing cultivation management decisions. This research demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of integrating drone imagery, logistic growth curves, and LSTM models for early and accurate prediction of Kimchi cabbage height. The proposed technology enables data-driven decision-making for farmers, facilitating timely interventions based on predicted growth patterns. This could lead to improved crop yields, resource optimization, and a more sustainable agricultural future. Future research will focus on refining the model's accuracy and exploring its applicability to other crops, further expanding the potential of precision agriculture technologies.

Urban tourism has witnessed significant growth in recent years, driven by various factors that foster the transformation of urban areas into tourist hotspots. These factors include a rising interest in culture and heritage, ongoing urban redevelopment and conversion processes, and the introduction of new experiences and activities. Two particularly influential factors contributing to this growth are low-cost travel, which facilitates more accessible access to urban destinations, and the emergence of new types of accommodation, such as short-term rental (also known as local accommodation or Airbnb-type accommodation). This sudden and continuous growth of this type of tourist accommodation brings new challenges to cities and local communities. On the positive side, it contributes to job opportunities, the dynamism of the local economy, and urban revitalization. On the other hand, it also represents more difficulty in retaining the local population in city centers, as more and more buildings are converted into hostels and tourist apartments. In this context, it becomes essential to conduct studies evaluating the impacts of these dynamics in urban areas and how they influence residents' and visitors' perspectives. Therefore, this study aims to identify the main transformations resulting from short-term rental (STR) development, focusing on the impacts felt by tourists and residents in Porto. A questionnaire was distributed to tourists and residents in Porto's city center in June 2023. The results reveal differences in opinions between tourists and residents, particularly concerning historical heritage preservation, local population relocation, and reduced housing availability for residents. Nevertheless, there is a similarity in their opinions regarding the stimulus that local accommodation brings to the economy and the rehabilitation of buildings and urban areas. This study reinforces the need to pay more attention to the future development of tourist accommodation in city centers, especially regarding local policies and territorial planning, to balance better tourism development and local communities' quality of life.

The Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent implementation of lockdown measures have significantly impacted global electricity consumption, necessitating accurate energy consumption forecasts for optimal energy generation and distribution during a pandemic. In this study, we propose a new forecasting model called the Multivariate Multilayered LSTM with Covid-19 case injection ($\proposedModel$) for improved energy forecast during the next occurrence of a similar pandemic. We utilize data from commercial buildings in Melbourne, Australia during the Covid-19 pandemic to predict energy consumption and evaluate the model's performance against commonly used methods such as LSTM, Bi-LSTM, Linear Regression, Support Vector Machine and the previously published work of Multilayered LSTM (M-LSTM). The proposed forecasting model was analyzed using the following metrics of mean percent absolute error (MPAE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), and $R^2$ score values. The model $\proposedModel$ demonstrates superior performance, achieving the lowest MPAE values of 0.061, 0.093, and 0.158 for data sets from 3 different buildings, respectively. Our results highlight the improved precision and accuracy of the model, providing valuable information for energy management and decision-making during the challenges posed by the occurrence of a pandemic like Covid-19 in the future.

This work focuses on short-term forecasting of PV output power. The multilayer perception (MLP), convolutional neural networks (CNN), and k-nearest neighbour (kNN) neural networks have been used singly or in a hybrid (with other algorithms) to forecast solar PV power or global solar irradiance with good success. Their performances in forecasting PV power have been compared with other algorithms but not with themselves. The study aims to compare performance of a number of neural network algorithms in solar PV energy yield forecasting under different weather conditions. The performance of MLPNN, CNN and kNN are being compared using solar PV (hourly) energy yield data for Grahamstown, Eastern Cape, South Africa. The choice of location is part of the study parameters to provide insight into renewable energy power integration in specific areas in south Africa that may be prone to extreme weather conditions. The kNN algorithm was found to have RMSE value of 4.95% and MAE value of 2.74% at its worst performance, and RMSE value of 1.49% and MAE value of 0.85% at its best performance. It outperformed the others by a good margin and kNN could serve as a fast, easy, and accurate tool to forecast solar PV output power.

With the rapid development of technology and the advancement of Internet technology, various social networking platforms are gradually coming into people's view and occupying a higher and higher position. In the recommendation scenario, the user-item interaction naturally forms a bipartite heterogeneous graph structure and with the development of graph embedding and graph neural network technologies based on deep learning to process graph domain information, the combination of graph information and recommendation systems shows strong research potential and application prospects. The methodological improvement of the recommendation algorithm based on collaborative filtering takes advantage of the nature that user-items can form a bipartite graph in the recommendation scenario. The existing methods still have some shortcomings. The methods that only use weights or convolutional recurrent neural networks to implicitly model different historical behaviors lack explicit modeling of video switching relationships in serialized behaviors. The user's interest is changing all the time, so it is not possible to recommend based on the user's history, and it is necessary to consider both the long-term and short-term interest of the user according to the video content in order to achieve accurate recommendation of short videos. In this paper, we design a recommendation model based on graph neural network, which models users' long-term and short-term interests by two vector propagation methods, respectively.

The statistical analysis of impact of the top 50 solar flares of X-class (1997-2023) on the global seismic activity, as well as on the earthquake preparation zones located in illuminated part of the globe and in the area of 5000 km radius around the subsolar point was carried out. It is shown by a method of epoch superposition that for all cases the increase of seismicity is observed, especially in the region around the subsolar point (up to 38%) during 10 days after the solar flare in comparison with preceding 10 days. The case study of aftershock sequence of strong M=9.1 earthquake (Su-matra-Andaman Islands, 26.12.2004) after the solar flare of X7.2 class (20.01.2005) demonstrated that the number of aftershocks with magnitude M≥2.5 increases more than 20 times after the solar flare with a delay of 7 days. For the case of the Darfield earthquake (M=7.1, 04.09.2010, New Zealand) it was shown that strong solar flares of class X and M probably triggered two strong aftershocks (M>6) with the same delay of 6 days on the Port Hills fault, which is the most sensitive to external electromagnetic impact from point of view of the fault electrical conductivity and orientation. Based on the obtained results the possible application of natural electromagnetic triggering of earthquakes is discussed for a short-term earthquake prediction using confidently recorded strong external electromagnetic triggering impacts on the specific earthquake preparation zones, as well as ionospheric perturbations due to aerosol emission from the earthquake sources recorded by satellites.

Responsible, efficient, and environmentally conscious energy consumption practices are increasingly essential for ensuring the reliability of the modern electricity grid. This study focuses on leveraging time series analysis to improve forecasting accuracy, crucial for various application domains where real-world time series data often exhibit complex, non-linear patterns. Our approach advocates for utilizing Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) models for precise time series forecasting. To ensure a fair evaluation, we compare the performance of our proposed approach with traditional neural networks, time-series forecasting methods, and conventional decline curves. Additionally, individual models based on LSTM, Bi-LSTM, and other machine learning methods are implemented for a comprehensive assessment. Experimental results consistently demonstrate that our proposed model outperforms all benchmarking methods in terms of mean absolute error (MAE) across most datasets. Addressing the imbalance between activations by consumer and prosumer groups, our predictions show superior performance compared to several traditional forecasting methods, such as the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). Specifically, the root mean square error (RMSE) of Bi-LSTM is 5.35%, 46.08%, and 50.6% lower than LSTM, ARIMA, and SARIMA, respectively, on the May test data.

The predictability of wind information in a given location is essential for the evaluation of a wind power project. Predicting wind speed accurately improves the planning of wind power generation, reducing costs and improving the use of resources. This paper seeks to predict the mean hourly wind speed in anemometric towers (at a height of 50 meters) at two locations: a coastal region and one with complex terrain characteristics. To this end, the Holt-Winters (HW), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Hybrid time-series models were used. Observational data evaluated by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications-Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis at the same height of the towers. The results show that the hybrid model had a better performance in relation to the others, including when compared to the evaluation with MERRA-2. For example, in terms of statistical residuals, RMSE and MAE were 0.91 and 0.62 m/s, respectively. As such, the hybrid models are a good method to forecast wind speed data for wind generation.

We conducted a hybrid-design study on a historical cohort of 359 adult recipients of a liver graft who received transplants between 1996 and 2002. The study aimed to identify predictors of survival and investigate the prevalence of co-morbidities among long-term survivors. The actuarial (95% CI) patient survival of the overall study cohort was 96% (94.6%-98.3%), 69% (64.2%-73.6%), 55% (49.8%-59.9%), 42.8% (37.6%-47.8%), and 34% (29.2%-38.9%) at 1, 5, 10, 15, and 20 years, respectively. The actuarial (95% CI) graft survival was 93.8% (91.6%-97.2%), 67.6% (62.2%-71.5%), 54.3% (49.6%-59.3%), 42.1% (37.3%-47.4%), and 33.8% (29.0%-38.4%) at 1, 5, 10, 15, and 20 years, respectively. The leading cause of death was hepatitis C virus recurrence (24.6%), followed by extrahepatic malignancies (16.9%), infection (14.4%), and hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence (14.4%). The Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that several independent factors were associated with the survival probability. These factors include younger donor and recipient ages (p=0.001 and 0.004, respectively), female recipient sex (p<0.001), absence of HCV (p<0.01), absence of HCC (p=0.001), and absence of diabetes mellitus at one year (p<0.01). At the latest follow-up, the leading comorbidities in the long-term survivors were hypertension (53.6%), obesity (18.7%), diabetes mellitus (17.1%), hyperlipidemia (14.7%), chronic kidney dysfunction (14.7%), and extrahepatic malignancies (13.8%), with 73.9% of patients having more than one complication. The Kaplan-Meier probability (95% CI) of complication-free survival was 65.4% (60.2%-70.3%), 38.4% (33.4%-43.7%), 17.8% (14.1%-22.2%), 7.2% (4.8%-10.5%), and 1.94% (0.85%-4.15%) at 1, 5, 10, 15, and 20 years, respectively. Aging with a liver graft is associated with an increased risk of complications and requires ongoing care to reduce the long-term attrition rate resulting from chronic immunosuppression.

Recently, the application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in many areas of life has allowed raising the efficiency of systems and converting them into smart ones, especially in the field of energy. Integrating AI with power systems allows electrical grids to be smart enough to predict the future load, which is known as Intelligent Load Forecasting (ILF). Hence, suitable decisions for power system planning and operation procedures can be taken accordingly. Moreover, ILF can play a vital role in electrical demand response, which guarantees a reliable transitioning of power systems. This paper introduces a Perfect Load Forecasting Strategy (PLFS) for predicting future load in smart electrical grids based on AI techniques. The proposed PLFS consists of two sequential phases, which are; Data Preprocessing Phase (DPP) and Load Forecasting Phase (LFP). In the former phase, input electrical load dataset is prepared before the actual forecasting takes place through two essential tasks, namely feature selection and outlier rejection. Feature selec-tion is done using Advanced Leopard Seal Optimization (ALSO) as a new natural inspired opti-mization technique, Citation: To be added by editorial staff during production. Academic Editor: Firstname Last-name Received: date Revised: date Accepted: date Published: date Copyright: © 2023 by the authors. Submitted for possible open access publication under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). While outlier rejection is accomplished through Interquartile Range (IQR) as a measure of statis-tical dispersion. On the other hand, actual load forecasting takes place in LFP using a new pre-dictor called; Weighted K-Nearest Neighbor (WKNN) algorithm. The proposed PLFS has been tested through excessive experiments. Results have shown that PLFS outperforms recent load forecasting techniques as it introduces the maximum prediction accuracy with the minimum root mean square error.

The article discusses issues related to the optimization of the operation of medium voltage networks, focusing on the optimization of network division points and the selection of the optimal network configuration aimed at reducing power and energy losses. The article provides a critical review of selected scientific works from recent years on the issue of network configuration optimization. The developed solution uses non-deterministic network models and statistical and probabilistic approaches. Optimization studies were carried out using heuristic optimization methods and proprietary algorithms for forecasting the load and power generated from renewable energy sources. The solution proposed in the article has many application possibilities. It can be used to optimize the location of network division points (reducing economic costs related to the modernization of network infrastructure) as well as to optimize the reconfiguration process in order to reduce power losses while maintaining voltage criteria.

Almost 115 million tons of fibers of which almost 90 million tons of chemical fibers were produced in the world in 2021, which are mainly used for the production of clothing and footwear. 30% of textile and apparel products are never sold, which means an extreme waste production. This article points out the possibilities of forecasting the sales of clothing in the case of one relatively large online store. Inadequate stocks of textile products in the company lead to loss and the need to sell products at a discount, which is undesirable for the company. The study in this article points to the calculation of the sales forecast for 2019 for the selected textile products, finding the analogy of the followed product sale. Sales for the years 2017 and 2018 serve as input data. The problem with textile products is that they have a short life cycle, i.e. the length of the life cycle is approximately half a year, and a high seasonality is also presented there. Therefore, the seasonal indices and Holt-Winters methods (multiplication and additional approaches) were used for products forecasting. Ultimately, this model could contribute to reducing the loss of unsold goods and thus reduce the waste of resources and increase the use of goods in other similar companies.

The mathematical structure underlying a sentence is made of two independent processing units in series. The conditional probability density function of sentence length (measured in words) recordable in the extended short–term memory (E–STM) buffer made of CF cells is Gaussian. The number of sentences that authors of Italian and English Literatures have written is compared to that theoretically available to them. The multiplicity factor α describes this comparison. α&gt;1 is more likely than α&lt;1 and often α≫1, therefore the same sentence pattern is reused many times. These texts are easier to read. Very few novels show α&lt;1. In these cases, there are enough diverse sentence patters to convey meaning, but most of them are not used. Texts are more difficult to read, as measured by a universal readability index GU. A mismatch index IM synthetically describes the process. α, GU. and IM increase with year of publication. Future work will concern other literatures – including ancient ones as Greek and Latin – to confirm what, in our opinion, is general feature of human mind.

We investigated the role of the human medio-temporal complex (hMT+) in the memory encoding and storage of a sequence of four coherently moving RDKs by applying repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) during an early or late phase of the retention interval. Moreover, in a second experiment we also tested whether disrupting the functional integrity of hMT+ during the early phase impaired the precision of the encoded motion directions. Overall, results showed that both recognition accuracy and precision were worse in middle serial positions, suggesting the occurrence of primacy and recency effects. We found that rTMS delivered during the early (but not the late) phase of the retention interval was able to impair not only recognition of RDKs, but also the precision of the retained motion direction. However, such impairment occurred only for RDKs presented in middle positions along the presented sequence, where performance was already closer to chance level. Altogether these findings suggest an involvement of hMT+ in the memory encoding of visual motion direction. Given that both position sequence and rTMS modulated not only recognition but also precision of the stored information, these findings are in support of a model of visual short-term memory with a variable resolution of each stored item, consistent with the assigned amount of memory resources, and that such item-specific memory resolution is supported by the functional integrity of area hMT+.

Heart rate variability (HRV) is commonly intended as the variation in the heart rate (HR) and it is evaluated in the time and frequency domains with various well known methods. In the present paper, we first consider an abstract model in which the HR is the instantaneous frequency of an otherwise periodic signal such as the electrocardiogram (ECG). Thus the ECG is assumed as a frequency modulated signal, or carrier signal, where HRV or HRVt is a supposed time-domain signal which is frequency modulating the carrier ECG signal around its average frequency. Hence we describe an algorithm able to frequency demodulate the ECG signal to extract a continuous signal HRVt with possibly enough time resolution to analyse fast time-domain variations in the instantaneous HR. After exhaustive testing of the method on simulated frequency modulated sinusoidal signals, we have applied the procedure on actual ECG tracings. The purpose of the work is to eventually use the heart as a kind of biological sensor of the fast activity of the autonomous nervous system (ANS) to study the ANS ultra-short-term event-evoked responses. A few preliminary, not clinical, real examples are also given.

The incorporation of renewable energy systems in the world energy system has been steadily increasing during the last years. In terms of the building sector, the usual consumers are becoming increasingly prosumers, and the trend is that communities of energy, whose households share produced electricity, will increase in number in the future. Another observed tendency is that the aggregator (the entity that manages the community) trades the net community energy in public energy markets. To accomplish economically good transactions, accurate and reliable forecasts of the day-ahead net energy community must be available. These can be obtained using an ensemble of multi-step shallow artificial neural networks, with prediction intervals obtained by the covariance algorithm. Using real data obtained by a small energy community of four houses located in the South region of Portugal, one can verify that the deterministic and probabilistic performance of the proposed approach is at least similar, typically better than using complex, deep models.

Background: The reference test for SARS-CoV-2 detection is the reverse transcriptase real time PCR (real time RT-PCR). However, evidences reported that real time RT-PCR has a lower sensitivity compared with the droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) leading to possible false negative in low viral load cases. Methods: We used ddPCR for viral genes N1 and N2 on 20 negative (no detection) samples from symptomatic hospitalized COVID-patients presenting fluctuating real time RT-PCR results and 10 suspected samples (Ct value>35) from asymptomatic not hospitalized subjects. Results: ddPCR performed on RNA revealed 65% of positivity for at least one viral target in the hospitalized patients group of samples (35% for N1 and N2, 10% only for N1 and 20% only for N2) and 50% in the suspected cases (30% for N1 and N2, while 20% only for N2). On hospitalized patients’ samples, we applied also a direct ddPCR approach on the swab material, achieving an overall positivity of 83%. Conclusion: ddPCR, in particular the direct quantitation on swabs, shows a sensitivity advantage for the SARS-CoV-2 identification and may be useful to reduce the false negative diagnosis, especially for low viral load suspected samples.

There are now a wide variety of global metrics. To find the degree of overlap between these different measures, we employ a principal components analysis (PCA) to 15 indices across 145 countries. Our results demonstrate that the most important underlying dimension highlights that economic development and social progress go hand in hand with state stability. The results are used to produce categorical divisions of the world. The threefold division identifies a world composed of what we describe and map as Rich, Poor and Middle countries. A five-group classification provided a more nuanced categorization described as; The Very Rich, Free and Stable, Affluent and Free, Upper Middle, Lower Middle, and Poor and Not Free.

The optimal surgical approach for thymoma resection is still an object of debate. The increasing experience in robotic-assisted thoracic surgery (RATS) has led to the progressive affirmation of this technique as a valid alternative to Video-Assisted Thoracic Surgery (VATS), sternotomy and thoracotomy in this setting. The present study aims to compare the post-operative and short-term results of RATS Thymectomy for thymoma with those of other main surgical approaches (sternotomy, thoracotomy, and VATS) from a high-volume single center.Between May 2021 - September 2023, 40 consecutive patients underwent RATS Thymectomy for I to limited-stage III thymoma in our center. Three homogenous groups of consecutive patients who received thymic surgery by main alternative approaches (sternotomy, thoracotomy, VATS) over the last 5 years, were identified in order to perform a comparative analysis. Data of operative technique, time of surgery, associated resections, conversion rate, overall morbidity, tumor size, radicality, postoperative pain, length of hospital stay, and cosmetic results were recorded and compared between each control group and the RATS group. Tumor size was higher in the sternotomy group, but not significantly. The mean operative time of RATS interventions was significantly lower than that of sternotomy and VATS. It was significantly shorter compared to thoracotomy if excluding docking-undocking time. Higher rate of associated adjacent structures resection was reported in the sternotomy group (p=0.005). Conversion rate was significantly higher in VATS group (p= 0.026) compared to RATS. Postoperative pain at 24 and 48 hours was significantly lower in RATS group compared to the others. Improved cosmetics results were reported after RATS compared to sternotomy (p= 0.0001) and thoracotomy (p= 0.001) groups, with a trend towards better results compared to VATS (p=0.05). Length of hospital stay was shorter in the RATS group with a significant difference vs. the sternotomy group (p<0.001). These results from a single center confirm the safety and effectiveness of RATS for the treatment of limited stage thymoma. Advantage in terms of operative outcomes, post-operative pain, cosmetic results, and hospital stay was observed if compared to the alternative approaches. Short-term oncologic outcome was excellent based on the high complete excision rate of the tumor.

Both cementless and cemented stems have exhibited favorable long-term outcomes in total hip arthroplasty. Nonetheless, in elderly patients, cemented hips offer an advantage because of their reduced risk of periprosthetic fractures. The present study aimed to assess the initial outcomes of 28 patients who underwent unilateral cemented total hip arthroplasty utilizing the calcar-guided A2 stem (Artiqo GmbH, Lüdinghausen, Germany). Various types of antibiotic-loaded cement were employed. Demographic data, comorbidities, and standardized clinical assessment tools, including the Harris Hip Score, were utilized during the follow-up. Radiographic assessments included preoperative, postoperative, and follow-up imaging to evaluate subsidence, osteolysis, and bone resorption. The results indicated that among the 28 patients, 5 withdrew consent, and 2 patients passed away from unrelated causes. Additionally, one prosthesis was explanted because of undersizing of the cement stopper, resulting in an inadequate cement mantle. As a result, 20 patients underwent a 1-year follow-up, revealing noteworthy enhancements in clinical scores, with no instances of radiolucent lines or osteolysis. In summary, our short-term experience with this particular cemented short-stem design yielded promising results, exhibiting excellent functional outcomes and no aseptic loosening attributable to the stem. Further clinical studies and registry data are essential to corroborate these findings.

The European Union Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC; WFD) aims to achieve a good ecological and chemical status of all bodies of surface water by 2027. The development of an integrated guidance on surface water chemical monitoring (e.g. WFD Guidance Document No. 7/19) has been transferred into national German law (Ordinance for the Protection of Surface Waters, OGewV). For the majority of compounds, this act requires a monthly sampling frequency to assess the chemical water quality status of a surface water body. To evaluate the representativeness of the sampling strategy under the OGewV, high-frequency online monitoring data is investigated under different sampling scenarios and compared with current, monthly grab sampling strategy. About 23 million data points were analyzed for this study, three chemical parameters (dissolved oxygen, nitrate-nitrogen, chloride concentration) and discharge data were selected from four catchment of different sizes ranging from 51391 km² to 84 km² (Elbe, Vereinigte Mulde, Neiße and two stations at Lockwitzbach). In this paper we proposed short-term online-monitoring (STOM) as a sampling alternative. STOM considers the placement of online sensors over a limited duration and return interval. In general we: (I) compare the results of conventional grab sampling with STOM, (II) investigate the different performance of STOM and grab sampling using discharge data as proxy for analyzing event-mobilized pollutants and (III) investigate the related uncertainties and costs of both sampling methods. Results show, that STOM outperforms grab sampling for parameters where minimum/maximum concentrations are required by law as the probability to catch a single extreme value is higher with STOM. Furthermore, parameters showing a pronounced diurnal pattern, like dissolved oxygen, are also captured considerably better. The performance of STOM showed no substantial improvements for parameters with small concentration variability, as nitrogen-nitrate The analysis of discharge events as a proxy parameter for event-mobilized pollutants proved that the probability of capturing samples during events is significantly increased by STOM.

Stock price prediction has long been a critical area of research in financial modeling. The inherent complexity of financial markets, characterized by both short-term fluctuations and long-term trends, poses significant challenges in accurately capturing underlying patterns. While Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have shown strong performance in short-term stock price prediction, they struggle with effectively modeling long-term dependencies. In this paper, we propose an advanced stock price prediction model based on the Extended Long Short-Term Memory (xLSTM) algorithm, designed to enhance predictive accuracy over both short and long-term periods. We conduct extensive experiments by building and evaluating models based on xLSTM and LSTM architectures for multiple stocks. Our results demonstrate that the xLSTM model consistently outperforms the LSTM model across all stocks and time horizons, with the performance gap widening as the prediction period extends. The observations underscore the superior capability of the xLSTM-based model to capture long-term patterns in financial data, offering a promising approach for more accurate and reliable stock price predictions.

Immersion in forest environments was shown to produce beneficial effects to human health, in particular psychophysical relaxation, so much that this practice is increasingly recognized as a form of integrative medicine. Limited evidence exists about both statistical significance and size of the effects conditioned on personal characteristics, as well as on the main external variables. The primary purpose of this study was to substantiate the very concept of forest therapy by means of the quantification and significance of the psychological effects, stratified by gender, age groups and place of residence. A preliminary qualitative analysis of the main determinants, in particular the method of conducting, the meteorological comfort and the concentration of volatile organic compounds in the forest atmosphere, was afforded. Seven forest therapy sessions were performed in late summer though early fall, resulting in 150 psychological self-assessment questionnaires administered before and after each session. The results were comparable or even better than others reported in the international literature. Moreover, preliminary evidence arose about different functionality towards specific psychological indexes conditioned at least on gender and age groups, as well as meteorological comfort, structured programs and, possibly, volatile organic compounds showed an impact on the outcomes.

Thermal variations affect tri-trophic interactions involving plants, herbivores, and parasitoids, causing a mismatch between their phenological cycles. In the current environmental context of climate change, climatic factors can undergo profound and sudden changes, such as sudden hot or cold snaps. Here we show that episodes of short but sustained low temperatures have increased, mainly in the month of May, in the last two decades. We subjected galls induced by Asian chestnut gall wasp (ACGW) Dryocosmus kuriphilus to cold stress to assess if and how the pest and its parasitoids were affected. Over the course of two years seasonal parasitism, parasitism rates, the relative abundance of each parasitoid species, and mortality of ACGW were calculated. We found that the cold treatment affected both pest and parasitoids, resulting in a reduction in emerging ACGWs and differing ratios of species within the parasitoid community. The striking example was the change in the relative frequency of three species of Eupelmus spp. and of Mesopolobus tibialis, which doubled in thermally-stressed galls in all chestnut fields. The thermal effects on the development of the host and the direct effects of cold temperatures on the surface of galls (i.e., humidity or hardness of the galls) warrant further research in this direction.

The pollution of the bays in Abidjan is a major concern for the Ivorian policy makers. In fact, the pollution of the bays induce high costs to the society while impacting population health dramatically. As a result, pollution reduction management of production activities has been undertaken in the Cocody Bay area. To our knowledge, no study has yet proposed a model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these pollution management strategies. A cost-effectiveness model, based on Monte Carlo simulation, was developed to assess the economic and environmental impacts of various scenarios characterized by a set of production practices, both in the short term and in the long term. The authors discuss the steps and input parameters of the model presented. The proposed model may serve as the basis for identifying an optimal production scenario defined as the scenario with the best incremental cost-effectiveness ratio considering a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold. The WTP, to be estimated based on the gross domestic product of Côte d’Ivoire, represents the opportunity costs associated with selecting the optimal scenario. The current framework can also be applied to other settings facing similar challenge.

This paper investigates portfolio optimization methodologies and short-term investment strate-gies in the context of the cryptocurrency market, focusing on ten major cryptocurrencies from January 2020 to November 2023. We employ high frequency data and utilize the Kurtosis Mini-mization methodology, alongside other optimization strategies, to construct and evaluate port-folios under different rebalancing frequencies. The empirical analysis reveals that cryptocurren-cies exhibit significant volatility, skewness, and kurtosis, necessitating sophisticated portfolio management techniques. We find that the Kurtosis Minimization methodology consistently outperforms other optimization strategies, delivering optimal returns to investors, particularly in shorter-term investment horizons. We demonstrate the diversification benefits of integrating cryptocurrencies into multi-asset portfolios and emphasize the importance of regular portfolio rebalancing in the volatile cryptocurrency market. Our findings offer insights for portfolio man-agers and investors seeking to optimize their investment outcomes in the cryptocurrency market, highlighting the importance of risk management, diversification, and dynamic portfolio man-agement strategies.

Understanding the optimal strategy for a real estate investment and how performance changes based on characteristics is crucial for optimising the achievable return. This is prominent in tourist areas such as Paphos where there is no clear distinction as to whether short or long-term approaches are optimal. The study aimed to develop a model for predicting the optimal rental strategy whilst assessing which model performed best and which property attributes impacted its return the greatest. Short-term data was collected from AirDNA and long-term data was manually collected from real estate agents websites. Furthermore, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbour and Multiple Linear Regression models were created to predict the highest and best use for each property. Model accuracy varied between data sets with the best performing model for short-term properties being Random Forest (R-Squared: 0.843), and Distance-Based Multiple Linear Regression for long-term approach (R-Squared: 0.843). The study demonstrated that accurate models could be created to predict the optimal rental strategy with the number of bedrooms being the main driver for rental income, followed by luxury finishes and the presence of a pool. It found that locational characteristics didn’t impact the returns significantly assuming that the property was located within a tourist area.

ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), a major cause of mortality worldwide, has been shown through epidemiological studies to have a relationship with short-term exposure to air pollutants; however, the association between air pollutants and the outcome of STEMI has not been well studied. The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of air pollutants on the outcomes of STEMI. Data on particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM2.5), <10 μm (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) at each of the 11 air monitoring stations in Kaohsiung City were collected between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2017. Medical records of non-trauma patients aged > 20 years who had visited the ED with a principal diagnosis of STEMI were extracted. The primary outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. After adjusting for potential confounders and meteorological variables, we found that an increase in the interquartile range (IQR) in NO2 was associated with an elevated risk of in-hospital mortality in patients with STEMI. Moreover, during the warm season, an IQR increase in NO2 corresponded to a higher risk of in-hospital mortality in patients with STEMI on lag 3 (OR=3.266; 95% CI:1.203–8.864, p=0.02). Conversely, an IQR increase in PM10 was associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality in patients with STEMI on lag 3 (OR=2.792; 95%CI:1.115–6.993, p=0.028) during the cold season. Our study suggests that exposure to NO2 (during warm season) and PM10 (during cold season) may contribute to a higher risk of poor prognosis in patients with STEMI.

Precipitation downscaling is widely employed for enhancing the resolution and accuracy of precipitation products from general circulation models (GCMs). In this study, we propose a novel statistical downscaling method to foster GCMs’ precipitation prediction resolution and accuracy for monsoon region. We develop a deep neural network composed of convolution and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent module to estimate precipitation based on well-resolved atmospheric dynamical fields. The proposed model is compared against GCM precipitation product and classical downscaling methods in the Xiangjiang River Basin in South China. Results show considerable improvement compared to the ECMWF-Interim reanalysis precipitation. Also, the model outperforms benchmark downscaling approaches, including 1) quantile mapping, 2) support vector machine, and 3) convolutional neural network. To test the robustness of the model and its applicability in practical forecast, we apply the trained network for precipitation prediction forced by retrospective forecasts from ECMWF model. Compared to ECMWF precipitation forecast, our model makes better use of the resolved dynamical field for more accurate precipitation prediction at lead time from 1 day up to 2 weeks. This superiority decreases along forecast lead time, as GCM’s skill in predicting atmospheric dynamics being diminished by the chaotic effect. At last, we build a distributed hydrological model and force it with different sources of precipitation inputs. Hydrological simulation forced with the neural network precipitation estimation shows significant advantage over simulation forced with the original ERA-Interim precipitation (with NSE value increases from 0.06 to 0.64), and the performance is just slightly worse than the observed precipitation forced simulation (NSE=0.82). This further proves the value of the proposed downscaling method, and suggests its potential for hydrological forecasts.

Dhaka one of the fastest-growing megacities in the world is increasingly vulnerable to urban flooding due to rapid urbanization, inadequate drainage infrastructure, and climate change-induced extreme weather events. This study presents the development of an urban flood forecasting system for Dhaka City using the MIKE+ hydrodynamic modeling software. The system integrates detailed hydrological and hydraulic models to simulate urban flooding scenarios, accounting for complex drainage networks and catchment characteristics. Real-time data from river gauges, rainfall stations, and drainage systems are incorporated to enhance the accuracy and reliability of the forecasts. The model's predictive capability is validated against historical flood events, demonstrating its effectiveness in forecasting flood extents, depths, and durations in critical areas of the city. This system serves as a valuable tool for city planners, emergency response teams, and decision-makers, enabling proactive flood management and risk mitigation. The study underscores the importance of such advanced modeling tools in safeguarding urban populations and infrastructures from the increasing threat of urban floods in Dhaka and similar rapidly urbanizing cities.

We study the short−term memory capacity of ancient readers of the original New Testament written in Greek, of its translations to Latin and modern languages. To model the short–term capacity, we have considered the number of words per interpunctions, the “word interval” , because this parameter can model how the human mind memorizes “chunks” of information. Since can be calculated for any alphabetical text, we can perform experiments − otherwise impossible − with ancient readers by studying the literary works they used to read. The “experiments” compare the of texts of a language/translation to those of another language/translation by measuring the minimum average probability of finding joint readers (those who can read both texts because of their similar short–-term memory capacity) and by defining an “overlap index”. We also define a population of universal readers who can read any the New Testament written in alphabetical language. More than 50% of the readers of specific languages overlap with the universal readers with probability . Future work is vast, with many research tracks, because alphabetical literatures are very large and allow many experiments, such as comparing authors, translations or even texts written by artificial intelligence tools.

The role of pregnancy in multiple sclerosis (MS) is of importance because many patients with MS are young women in the childbearing age who require information to inform their reproductive decisions. Pregnancy is now well-known to be associated with fewer relapses of MS and reduced activity of autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE). However, in women with multiple sclerosis, this benefit is not always sufficient to protect against a rebound of disease activity if disease modulating therapy is ceased for pregnancy. There is reason to be concerned that use of assisted reproductive therapies can be associated with relapses of MS. It is thought that the beneficial effects of pregnancy are due to the pregnancy-associated changes in the maternal immune system. There is some evidence of this in human studies and studies of EAE. There is also evidence that having been pregnant leads to better long-term outcome of MS. The mechanism for this is not fully understood but it could result from epigenetic changes resulting from pregnancy or parenthood. Further studies of the mechanisms of the beneficial effects of pregnancy could provide information that might be used to produce new therapies.

Accurate forecasts of ocean waves energy can not only reduce costs for investment but it is also essential for management and operation of electrical power. This paper presents an innovative approach based on the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) to predict the power generation of an economical wave energy converter named “Searaser”. The data for analyzing is provided by collecting the experimental data from another study and the exerted data from numerical simulation of searaser. The simulation is done with Flow-3D software which has high capability in analyzing the fluid solid interactions. The lack of relation between wind speed and output power in previous studies needs to be investigated in this field. Therefore, in this study the wind speed and output power are related with a LSTM method. Moreover, it can be inferred that the LSTM Network is able to predict power in terms of height more accurately and faster than the numerical solution in a field of predicting. The network output figures show a great agreement and the root mean square is 0.49 in the mean value related to the accuracy of LSTM method. Furthermore, the mathematical relation between the generated power and wave height was introduced by curve fitting of the power function to the result of LSTM method.

Modeling brain dynamics to better understand and control complex behaviors underlying various cognitive brain functions are of interests to engineers, mathematicians, and physicists from the last several decades. With a motivation of developing computationally efficient models of brain dynamics to use in designing control-theoretic neurostimulation strategies, we have developed a novel data-driven approach in a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network architecture to predict the temporal dynamics of complex systems over an extended long time-horizon in future. In contrast to recent LSTM-based dynamical modeling approaches that make use of multi-layer perceptrons or linear combination layers as output layers, our architecture uses a single fully connected output layer and reversed-order sequence-to-sequence mapping to improve short time-horizon prediction accuracy and to make multi-timestep predictions of dynamical behaviors. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in reconstructing the regular spiking to bursting dynamics exhibited by an experimentally-validated 9-dimensional Hodgkin-Huxley model of hippocampal CA1 pyramidal neurons. Through simulations, we show that our LSTM neural network can predict the multi-time scale temporal dynamics underlying various spiking patterns with reasonable accuracy. Moreover, our results show that the predictions improve with increasing predictive time-horizon in the multi-timestep deep LSTM neural network.

Accurate and fast traffic flow forecasting is vital in intelligent transportation system because many of the advanced features in intelligent transportation systems are based on it. However, existing methods have poor performance regarding accuracy and computational efficiency in long-term traffic flow forecasting under big data. Hence, we propose an improved Long short-term memory (LSTM) Network and its cluster computing implementation in this paper to address the above challenge. We propose a singular point probability LSTM (SDLSTM) algorithm. The method discards the units of the network according to the singular point probability during the training process and amends the SDLSTM by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) to achieve the accurate prediction of 24-hour traffic flow data. Furthermore, the paper designs a scheme for implementing this method through cluster computing to shorten the calculation time and improve the system's operating speed. Theoretical analysis and experimental results show that SDLSTM gains a higher accuracy rate and better stability in the long-term traffic flow forecasting compared with previous methods.

This study investigates the cyclic load application impact on fly ash-based geopolymer composites that are reinforced with a low amount of fibre reinforcement. For reinforcement purposes, PVA and steel fibres are used. For testing purposes, four geopolymer composite mixes were made, 3 of which had fibre reinforcement. Simultaneously specimens were tested for shrinkage, static load-induced creep, and cyclic load-induced creep. For static and cyclic creep testing, specimens were loaded with 20% of their strength. For cyclic creep testing, load application and release cycles were seven days long. When each cycle was introduced, the load was added in steps. In 5 minutes, by 25% steps of the necessary load, the specimens were loaded or unloaded. Only plain specimens show that static creep strains are within cyclic creep strains. For all the other specimens, the static load is higher than the cyclic load-induced creep amplitude. Also, 1% PVA fibre-reinforced specimens show the most elastic characteristics under cyclic load, and 1% steel fibre-reinforced specimens appear to be the most resistant to the cyclic load introduction.

To improve the accuracy of short-term multi-energy load prediction models for integrated energy systems, the historical development law of the multi-energy loads must be considered. Moreover, understanding the complex coupling correlation of the different loads in the multi-energy systems and accounting for other load-influencing factors, such as weather, may further improve the forecasting performance of such models. In this study, a two-stage fuzzy optimization method is proposed for the feature selection and identification of the multi-energy loads. To enrich the information content of the prediction input feature, we introduced a copula correlation feature analysis in the proposed framework, which extracts the complex dynamic coupling correlation of multi-energy loads and applies Akaike information criterion (AIC) to evaluate the adaptability of the different copula models presented. Furthermore, we combined a NARX neural network with Bayesian optimization and an extreme learning machine model optimized using a genetic algorithm to effectively improve the feature fusion performances of the proposed multi-energy load prediction model. The effectiveness of the proposed short-term prediction model was confirmed by the experimental results obtained using the multi-energy load time-series data of an actual integrated energy system.

Modelling both long and short-term user interests from historical data is crucial for accurate recommendations. However, unifying these metrics across multiple application domains can be challenging, and existing approaches often rely on complex, intertwined models which can be difficult to interpret. To address this issue, we propose a lightweight, plug-and-play interest enhancement module that fuses interest vectors from two independent models. After analyzing the dataset, we identify deviations in the recommendation performance of long and short-term interest models. To compensate for these differences, we use feature enhancement and loss correction during training. In the fusion process, we explicitly split long-term interest features with longer duration into multiple local features. We then use a shared attention mechanism to fuse multiple local features with short-term interest features to obtain interaction features. To correct for bias between models, we introduce a comparison learning task that monitors the similarity between local features, short-term features, and interaction features. This adaptively reduces the distance between similar features. Our proposed module combines and compares multiple independent long-term and short-term interest models on multiple domain datasets. As a result, it not only accelerates the convergence of the models but also achieves outstanding performance in challenging recommendation scenarios.

Photovoltaic(PV) power generation is highly nonlinear and stochastic. Accurate prediction of PV power generation plays a crucial role in grid connection as well as the operation and scheduling of power plants. To predict the PV power combination model, this paper suggests a method based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Neural Networks with Exogenous Input (NARXNN), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network, and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) algorithms. To attempt to reduce the non-smoothness of PV power, the weather variable features with the greatest effect on PV power are first identified by correlation analysis. Following this, the PV power modal decomposition is split and reorganized into a new feature matrix. Finally， a NARX is used to obtain preliminary PV power components and residual vector features， and the PV power is predicted by combining three models of LightGBM， LSTM, and NARX and then the final prediction results are obtained by combining the PV power prediction results using error inverse method weighted optimization. The prediction results demonstrate that the model put forth in this paper outperforms those of other models and validate the model's validity by utilizing real measurement data from Andre Agassi College in the United States.

Instep weights cause mechanical changes, modifying muscle activity and changing ground plantar support. 30 semi-professional sprinters, randomized in 3 groups [no-weight, Ascending (50, 100, 150 and 200g), Descending (200, 150, 100 and 50g)] run 6 consecutive 50-meter series at maximum speed (first and sixth without weights); partial, total times and speed were analyzed. Instep weights were safe and well tolerated. 6th series speed decreased except in men’s ascending group, who achieved a lower time in sixth compared to first series. Weights presented in ascending order in men during warm-up could improve running time. Instep weights neuromuscular effects could compensate men’s tiredness in last series; weights could be included in training methodologies. Men training weights presented in ascending order may provide better results.

BackgroundThe novel virus COVID-19, also known as SARS-CoV‑2, is currently rapidly spreading around the globe and pushing healthcare systems to the limits of their capacity. One of the functions of predictive models is to timely act for epidemic preparedness including hospital preparedness. In Egypt, like many other countries in the world, the epidemic situation and forecasting have not yet sufficiently studied. ObjectiveThe study was carried out to develop a short-term forecast scenario for the COVID-19 epidemic situation in Egypt and predict the hospital needs to accommodate the growing number of cases.MethodsSecondary data from the COVID-2019 daily reports and the report issued 8^th of April by the Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population were used. Due to the daily changing level of knowledge and data, the article reflects the status up to 18 April 2020. The prediction was based on the exponential growth rate model. For the depiction of the situation, the full length of the epidemic timeline was analyzed (from February 14^th till April 18^th). The growth rates and their rates of decline during the period from the 22^nd of March till the 18^th of April were calculated and extrapolated in the coming 7 weeks. The predicted hospital needs were assessed against the announced allocated resources.ResultsThe epidemic curve in Egypt is on the ascending arm as of April, 18. The active cases showed exponential growth from the start of the epidemic till April, 18. At the end of this period time, the recovery rate was 23.12% and the case fatality rate (CFR) was7.39. The case fatality rate median level during the last four weeks was 6.64. The active cases are expected to reach more than 20,000 by late May then starts to decline. The allocated regular hospital beds are predicted to show shortage by the time of the release of the paper. The intensive care units (ICU) beds and ventilators are predicted to show insufficiency on May 6.Conclusions: The COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt is expected to continue on the rise for the next few weeks and expected to start to decline late in May, 2020. Our estimates should be useful in preparedness planning. Serious actions should be taken to provide ICU beds and ventilators enough for the predicted number of cases that would need them, not later than the end of April. Mitigation actions have to continue for the coming 6 weeks or until the epidemic situation is more clearly seen.

Brown adipose tissue (BAT) function may depend on its anatomical location and developmental origin. Interscapular BAT (iBAT) regulates acute macronutrient metabolism, whilst perivascular BAT (PVAT) regulates vascular function. Although phenotypically similar, whether these depots respond differently to acute nutrient excess is unclear. Given their distinct anatomical locations and developmental origins and we hypothesised that iBAT and PVAT would respond differently to brief period of nutrient excess. Sprague-Dawley rats aged 12 weeks (n = 12) were fed either a standard (10% fat, n = 6) or high fat diet (HFD: 45% fat, n = 6) for 72 h and housed at thermoneutrality. Following an assessment of whole body physiology, fat was collected from both depots for analysis of gene expression and the proteome. HFD consumption for 72 h induced rapid weight gain (c. 2.6%) and reduced serum NEFA with no change in either total adipose or depot mass. In iBAT, an upregulation of genes involved in insulin signalling and lipid metabolism was accompanied by enrichment of lipid-related processes and functions, plus glucagon and PPAR signalling pathways. In PVAT, HFD induced a pronounced down-regulation of multiple metabolic pathways which was accompanied with increased abundance of proteins involved in apoptosis (e.g. Hdgf and Ywaq) and toll-like receptor signalling (Ube2n). There was also an enrichment of DNA-related processes and functions (e.g., nucleosome assembly and histone exchange) and RNA degradation and cell adhesion pathways. In conclusion, we show that iBAT and PVAT elicit divergent responses to short-term nutrient excess highlighting early adaptations in these depots before changes in fat mass.

Objectives: Minimally invasive direct coronary artery bypass (MIDCAB) is an alternative for revascularisation of isolated left anterior descending (LAD) or as multi-vessel (MV) procedure for diagonal branch (RD) or circumflex artery (RCX) region. Methods: From 2021 to 2022 91 patients underwent MIDCAB procedure in our heartcenter. 80% were male. Eighty percent of the patients had two or three vessel coronary artery disease. Mean age was 65±10 years. The left internal mammary artery (LIMA) was anastomosed to the left anterior descending via left minithoracotomy approach in all patients. Fourteen patients received multi-vessel MIDCAB (15%) with two or three anastomoses a saphenous vein graft (as T-graft to LIMA) was anastomosed to RD or RCX. Results: Mean operation time was 2.6±0.8 hours. The 30-day mortality was 0. Mean required packed red blood cells (pRBC) was 0.4±1.2 unit. The intensive care unit stay (ICU) was 1.5±1.6 days mean. We observed two patients (2%) with wound infections postoperatively. Four patients underwent rethoracotomy because of bleeding. Mean follow-up time was 1.5±0.5 years. Seventy-eight patients (86%) were in New York Heart Association (NYHA) class 1, 11 patients (12%) were in NYHA class 2. One patient received percutaneous coronary intervention due to de novo stenosis of the RCA. Late mortality was 2%. The Kaplan-Meier survival rate was 98.8% at 1 and 2 years. Conclusion: MIDCAB is technically demanding. Our postoperative and short-term clinical results demonstrate that this procedure is safe and feasible. Optimal patient selection and an experienced surgical team are mandatory.

With the escalation of size and complexity of modern Denial of Service attacks, there is a need for research in the context of Machine Learning (ML) used in attack execution and defense against such attacks. This paper investigates the potential use of ML in generating behavioral telemetry data using Long-Short Term Memory network and spoofing requests for the analyzed traffic to look legitimate. For this research, a custom testing environment was built, that listens for mouse and keyboard events and analyzes them accordingly. While the economic feasibility of this attack currently limits its immediate threat, advancements in technology could make it more cost-effective for attackers in the future. Therefore, proactive development of countermeasures remains essential to mitigate potential risks and stay ahead of evolving attack methods.

The increasing use of renewable energies as a source of electricity has led to a fundamental transition of the power supply system. The integration of fluctuating weather-dependent energy sources into the grid already has a major impact on the load flows of the grid. As a result, the interest in forecasting wind and solar radiation with a sufficient accuracy over short time horizons grew. In this study the short-term forecast of the effective cloud albedo based on optical flow estimation methods are investigated. The optical flow method utilized here is TV-L¹ from the open source library OpenCV. This method uses a multi-scale-approach to capture cloud motions on various spatial scales. After the clouds are displaced the solar surface radiation will be calculated with SPECMAGIC NOW which computes the global irradiation spectrally resolved from satellite imagery. Due to a high temporal and spatial resolution of satellite measurements the effective cloud albedo and thus solar radiation can be forecasted from 5 minutes up to 4 hours with a resolution of 0.05°. In the following there will be a brief description of the method for the short-term forecast of the effective cloud albedo. Subsequently evaluation results will be presented and discussed. Finally an outlook of further developments will be given.

Keywords: mHealth; peritoneal dialysis; functionality; usability

The severest form of muscular dystrophy (MD) termed Duchenne MD (DMD) remains to this day an incurable disease, hence the continued effort to further develop supportive therapies. Perturbation of autophagy, a degradative yet protective mechanism activated when tissues face severe and persistent stress, is critically involved in DMD, consequently, treatments harnessing autophagic capacities represent an amenable therapeutic strategy. We studied the effects of the protective osmolyte ectoine in the standard mouse model of DMD, the MDX, zooming in on the autophagy-related proteome. From birth, mice were treated with ectoine in the drinking water (150mg/kg) or through daily intraperitoneal injection (177mg/kg) until 5 weeks old. Hind limb muscles were dissected, performing western blotting for protein quantification and immunofluorescence to investigate tissue distribution. We report significant alterations of total levels of autophagy related 5 (ATG5), Ser366 phosphorylated sequestosome 1 (SQSTM1) and heat shock protein 70 (HSP70), and of activated microtubule-associated protein 1A/1B-light chain 3 (LC3 II) in mitochondrial fractions. Ectoine tends to restore the shifted balance between LC3 II and SQSTM1 levels observed in MDX muscle, and LC3 II upregulation was most pronounced on muscle fibers of MDX treated with ectoine in the drinking water. Findings from this explorative study support a possible beneficial effect of ectoine on the autophagic deficit in the MDX, which warrants its further exploration as a therapeutic supplement for DMD.

Overweight and Obesity (Ow/Ob) is a risk factor for developing cardiometabolic disease, and metabolic dysfunction. Dietary interventions, such as caloric restriction (CR), have been explored but little is known about the acute effects of CR and often such diets are not standardized. PURPOSE: To assess the impact of a standardized 3-day CR diet (~590kcal/d) on cardiometabolic health and fat metabolism in Ow/Ob individuals. METHODS: Fifteen Ow/Ob men and women were assessed pre-post 3-day CR using standardized diet; specifically, body weight/composition (% body fat, visceral fat score (Vfs), waist-hip circumferences, blood pressure and vascular stiffness, resting energy expenditure (REE), substrate utilization (respiratory quotient, RQ), and blood glucose/lipid profile. RESULTS: CR induced changes in body weight (93.1±15.2 to 90.67±14.4 kg, p&lt;0.001, d=1.9), body mass index (32.9±4.0 to 32.0±3.7 kg/m2, p&lt;0.001, d=1.4), body fat (37.2±7.5 to 35.8±7.5%, p=0.002, d=1.1) and Vfs (13.1±4.5 to 12.2±3.9 a.u., p=0.002, d=1.1), but not body water (46.3±3.6 to 46.0±3.6%, p=0.29, d=0.3). CR had no effect on peripheral (86±5 to 89±5 mmHg, p=0.23, d=0.3) or central mean arterial pressure (86±5 to 87±6 mmHg, p=0.44, d=0.2), but lowered augmentation index (29.8±17.5 to 21.5±14.5%, p=0.05, d=0.6). Blood glucose (86±7 to 84±11 mg/dl, p=0.33, d=0.3) and blood lipids (total cholesterol (196±49 to 203±54 mg/dl, p=0.16, d=0.4) and TC/HDL (4.9±2.4 to 6.1±4.7, p=0.13, d=0.4)) were unchanged. RQ decreased with CR (0.84±0.01 to 0.76±0.00, p&lt;0.001, d=1.9), though REE was unchanged (1718±274 to 1722±317 kcal/d, p=0.83, d=0.1). CONCLUSION: The 3-day CR significantly improved body weight and composition and fat metabolism, with minimal cardiovascular effects.

This paper proposes an encryption scheme for high pixel density images. Based on the application of the quantum random walk algorithm, the Long short-term memory (LSTM) can effectively solve the problem of low efficiency of the quantum random walk algorithm in generating large-scale pseudorandom matrices, and further improve the statistical properties of the pseudorandom matrices required for encryption. The LSTM is then divided into columns and fed into the LSTM in order for training. Due to the randomness of the input matrix, the LSTM cannot be trained effectively, so the output matrix is predicted to be highly random. The LSTM prediction matrix of the same size as the key matrix is generated based on the pixel density of the image to be encrypted, which can effectively complete the encryption of the image. In the statistical performance test, the proposed encryption scheme achieves an average information entropy of 7.9992, an average number of pixels changed rate (NPCR) of 99.6231%, an average uniform average change intensity (UACI) of 33.6029% and an average correlation of 0.0032. Finally, various noise simulation tests are also conducted to verify its robustness in real-world applications where common noise and attack interference are encountered.