The relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a popular diagnostic tool in forecast verification, with the area under the ROC curve (AUC) used as a verification metric measuring the discrimination ability of a forecast. Along with calibration, discrimination is deemed as a fundamental probabilistic forecast attribute. In particular, in ensemble forecast verification, AUC provides a basis for the comparison of potential predictive skill of competing forecasts. While this approach is straightforward when dealing with forecasts of common events (e.g. probability of precipitation), the AUC interpretation can turn out to be oversimplistic or misleading when focusing on rare events (e.g. precipitation exceeding some warning criterion). How should we interpret AUC of ensemble forecasts when focusing on rare events? How can changes in the way probability forecasts are derived from the ensemble forecast affect AUC results? How can we detect a genuine improvement in terms of predictive skill? Based on verification experiments, a critical eye is cast on the AUC interpretation to answer these questions. As well as the traditional trapezoidal approximation and the well-known bi-normal fitting model, we discuss a new approach which embraces the concept of imprecise probabilities and relies on the subdivision of the lowest ensemble probability category.

This work compared the performance of three methods for constructing a regional ensemble prediction system (EPS) for wind speed forecasts: dynamical downscaling, breeding of growth modes (BGM), and blending method. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to downscale the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) EPS. In addition, as the BGM method needs observation data for generating scaling factors, an alternative method for generating scaling factors was proposed to eliminate dependence on observation data. One-month tests between October 1st and October 30th, 2020, were implemented to evaluate the performance of three methods in the Gansu province of China. The results demonstrate that the blending method outperforms the other two methods. Furthermore, the difference in performance is evident mainly in early forecast lead time and becomes negligible as forecast time increases.

This study shows the application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) to probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation and ramps in Japan. SOMs are applied to atmospheric variables obtained from atmospheric reanalysis over the region, thus deriving classified weather patterns (WPs). Probabilistic relationships are established between the synoptic-scale atmospheric variables over East Japan and the generation of regionally integrated wind power in East Japan. Medium-range probabilistic wind power predictions are derived by SOM, as analog ensembles based on the WPs of the multi-center ensemble forecasts. As this analog approach handles stochastic uncertainties effectively, probabilistic wind power forecasts are rapidly generated from a very large number of forecast ensembles. The use of a multi-model ensemble provides better results than a one-forecast model. The hybrid ensemble forecasts further improve the probabilistic predictability skill of wind power generation, as compared with non-hybrid methods. It is expected that long-term wind forecasts will provide better guidance to transmission grid operators. The advantage of this method is that it can include an interpretative analysis of meteorological factors for variations in renewable energy.

Taiwan is highly susceptible to global warming, experiencing a 1.4°C increase in air temperatures from 1911-2005, which is twice the average for the Northern Hemisphere. This has led to higher rates of respiratory and cardiovascular mortality. Accurately predicting maximum temperatures during the summer season is crucial, but numerical weather models become less accurate and more uncertain beyond five days. To improve forecast reliability, statistical post-processing is needed to address systematic errors. In September 2020, NOAA NCEP implemented the Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFSv12) to help manage climate risks. This study developed a Hybrid statistical post-processing method that combines Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Quantile mapping (QQ) approaches to predict daily maximum temperatures and extremes in Taiwan during the summer season. The Hybrid technique, utilizing deep learning techniques, was applied to the GEFSv12 reforecast data and evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis. The Hybrid technique was the most effective among the three techniques tested. It had the lowest bias, RMSE, and highest correlation coefficient. It successfully reduced the warm bias and overestimation of Tmax extreme days. This led to improved prediction skills for all forecast lead times. Compared to ANN and QQ, the Hybrid method was more effective in predicting summer daily Tmax and its extremes on an extended-range time scale deterministic and ensemble probabilistic forecasts over Taiwan.

The feasibility of a hurricane initialization framework based on the GSI-4DEnVar data assimilation system for the HWRF model is evaluated in this study. The system considers the temporal evolution of error covariances via the use of four-dimensional ensemble perturbations that are provided by high-resolution, self-consistent HWRF ensemble forecasts. It is different from the configuration of the GSI-3DEnVar data assimilation system, similar to that used in the operational HWRF, which employs background error covariances provided by coarser-resolution global ensembles from the NCEP GFS ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation system. Data assimilation and numerical simulation experiments for Hurricanes Joaquin (2015), Patricia (2015), and Matthew (2016) are conducted during their intensity changes. The impacts of two initialization frameworks on the HWRF analyses and forecasts are compared. It is found that GSI-4DEnVar leads to a reduction in track, MSLP, and MSW forecast errors in all of the HWRF simulations, compared with the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework. Further diagnoses with Hurricane Joaquin indicate that GSI-4DEnVar can significantly alleviate the imbalances in the initial conditions and enhance the performance of the data assimilation and subsequent hurricane intensity and precipitation forecasts.

We provide a comprehensive framework for forecasting five minute load using Gaussian processes with a positive definite kernel specifically designed for load forecasts. Gaussian processes are probabilistic, enabling us to draw samples from a posterior distribution and provide rigorous uncertainty estimates to complement the point forecast, an important benefit for forecast consumers. As part of the modeling process, we discuss various methods for dimension reduction and explore their use in effectively incorporating weather data to the load forecast. We provide guidance for every step of the modeling process, from model construction through optimization and model combination. We provide results on data from the PJMISO for various periods in 2018. The process is transparent, mathematically motivated, and reproducible. The resulting model provides a probability density of five-minute forecasts for 24 hours.

Day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers, and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participate in predicting the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, Fixed Weight Method (FWM) and Varying Weight Method (VWM), for selecting each hour's expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features derived from information such as past electricity price data, weather data, and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than both the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF) method and our own previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) alone do on the datasets for New York, Australian, and Spanish electricity markets.

This paper presents the methods of estimating the mean square error of hydrological forecasts, allowing for assessment of their practical applicability. Depending upon the amount and composition of available hydrometeorological data, an appropriate method for forecast error estimation is chosen. A system of statistical tests for comparison of different forecasting methods for the same hydrologic characteristic with the same lead time is presented. These tests allow for choosing an optimal and most accurate forecasting method. Hydrological forecasting method efficiency estimation is based on comparing the forecast error with climatology or inertial (persistence) forecast error using presented tests.

In this study an adjusting post-processing approach is implemented for improving intra-hourly forecasts of solar power and ramp events of PV solar power systems at different locations in the United States. This study also serves as an out-of-sample test to evaluate the performance of the adjusting approach with different locations and timescales. Thus, various individual intra-hourly forecasts of solar power are combined and adjusted by applying the adjusting approach. Both point and probabilistic forecasts of solar power are included. After that, solar power ramp event forecasting by the adjusting approach is carried out.

High-resolution forecasting of vegetation type shifts may prove essential for anticipating and mitigating the impacts of future climate change on bird populations. Here, we used the US Forest Service Ecological Response Unit (ERU) classification to develop and assess vegetation-based breeding habitat profiles for eight owl species occurring in foothills and mountains of the southwestern US. Shifts in mapped habitat were forecast using an ecosystem vulnerability model based on the pre-1990 climate envelopes of ERUs and the A1B moderate IPCC emission scenario of future climate. For five of the eight owl species, regional breeding habitat extent was projected to decline by at least 60% by 2090. Three species, the boreal owl (Aegolius funereus; at the trailing edge of its distribution), flammulated owl (Psiloscops flammeolus), and northern pygmy-owl (Glaucidium gnoma) were projected to experience the steepest habitat-loss rates, or 85%, 85%, and 76%, respectively. Projected vegetation shifts overlaid with well-documented flammulated owl breeding populations showed complete or near complete loss of habitat by 2090 in areas of montane forest currently supporting dense aggregations of owl territories. Generalist or lower-elevation owl species were predicted to be less impacted, while for the whiskered screech-owl (Megascops trichopsis), the contraction of current habitat was nearly offset by a projected northward expansion. In general, the results of this study suggest high exposure to climate change impacts for upper-elevation forest owls of semi-arid southwestern North America. Long distance migration and low natal philopatry may prove important to some montane owl populations for adapting to regional loss of habitat.

While increasing empirical evidence suggests that global time series forecasting models can achieve better forecasting performance than local ones, there is a research void regarding when and why the global models fail to provide a good forecast. This paper uses anomaly detection algorithms and Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) to answer when and why a forecast should not be trusted. To address this issue, a dashboard was built to inform the user regarding (i) the relevance of the features for that particular forecast, (ii) which training samples most likely influenced the forecast outcome, (iii) why the forecast is considered an outlier, and (iv) provide a range of counterfactual examples to understand value changes, in the feature vector or the predicted value, can lead to a different outcome. Moreover, a modular architecture and a methodology were developed to iteratively remove noisy data instances from the train set, to enhance the overall global time series forecasting model performance. Finally, to test the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was validated on two publicly available real-world datasets.

In the context of growing global political tension and introduction of world trade barriers, the urgent task is to develop new tools for assessing their consequences. In the paper we present the agent-based model of trade wars, considering organizations, states and residents generated using initial statistical data. Simulation determines changes in output and supplies of organizations under trade restrictions. Results of calculations on the developed model and comparison of various model complexes forecasts with real consequences of trade wars between the USA and China in 2018 and Western countries against Russia in 2022 are presented. Within calculations four scenarios were considered: (1) baseline, (2) new restrictions between China and the USA, (3) more serious sanctions against China and Russia by the USA and the EU, (4) a global trade war. In the second scenario deviation GDP of the USA and China from the baseline scenario does not exceed 0.5%. In the third scenario, the range of countries involved is expanding, and the fall in GDP in them is expected at the level of 0.7-1%. In the fourth scenario, the entire world economy experiences a serious slowdown, and the EU are facing the most severe consequences, going into recession.

This paper explores how smart cities can cope with land subsidence and liquefaction in the context of rapid urbanization in Japan. Since the 1960s, liquefaction has become an important topic in geotechnical engineering, and great efforts have been made to evaluate the resistance of soil to liquefaction. There is currently a lack of machine learning applications specifically for smart cities in areas such as geological hazards. This study uses two machine learning techniques, artificial neural networks and ensemble learning, to obtain a prediction model with high performance in predicting the bearing layer depth to improve the accuracy of geo-engineering surveys. The model was developed by analyzing actual survey data from 433 locations in Setegaya, Tokyo, by using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and bagging, respectively. The results show that machine learning has great advantages in predicting the bearing layer depth. In addition, compared with a single model such as artificial neural networks, the prediction performance of ensemble learning can be improved by about 20%. Both interdisciplinary approaches can help predict address risks and thus promote sustainable urban development, highlighting the potential of smart cities in the future.

The paper deals with the problem of choosing the best O&M strategy for wind power plants. Current maintenance theory considers just production opportunities and minimizes the maintenance costs, but with the liberalization of the electricity market also the electricity price has become an important variable to take into account in the O&M scheduling. Another important variables that is often neglected by the existing maintenance theory is the weather condition. This paper proposes a new strategy that takes into account the electricity price and weather conditions, improves the expected profit of the systems, and reduce the overall maintenance and logistic costs. The maintenance schedule is formalized as an optimization problem where the discounted cumulative profit of a wind generation portfolio in a fixed-time horizon (e.g. two years ahead), subject to the technologically-derived maintenance time constraints is optimized. Both the theoretical and computational aspects of the proposed O&M strategy are discussed. Results show that taking into account market and weather opportunities in the design of the maintenance strategy, it is possible to achieve a more complete scheduling for a given set of wind power plants.

Recently, methods to detect DoS and spoofing attacks that occur on in-vehicle networks using CAN Protocol are being studied through deep learning models such as CNN, RNN, and LSTM. These studies have produced significant results in the field of In-Vehicle Network attack detection using deep learning models. In addition, significant results are being achieved through research on applying time series-based deep learning models such as LSTM to detect DoS attacks and replay attacks occurring in in-drone networks by expanding them to drones using the UAVCAN protocol. In this paper, we conducted an experiment to detect in-drone network attacks through non-time series analysis using machine learning models and deep learning models, and through appropriate learning for each attack type, it can also be analyzed through non-time series analysis. The results showed that it was possible to detect attacks.

Load forecasting is an important component of power system and resource planning for electrical grids. The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), behind-the-meter (BTM) solar, and heat pumps will significant change the amount and variability of loads. Electrification adoption and load forecasting in arctic regions and Alaska is limited. This paper provides the first load and electrification adoption forecast for the Alaska Railbelt transmission system, including yearly adoption rates of EVs, BTM solar, and heat pumps and hourly load data. Adoption rates are based on available historical data and compared to other regional and national trends. Two forecasts are created: 1) a moderate adoption forecast based on projections from current adoption rates and comparisons to other projections, and 2) an aggressive forecast, which provides a bookend comparison at the high adoption rate of 90% for all technologies. The results of these forecasts demonstrate a significant increase in both energy, 80% and 116% for moderate and aggressive, respectively and peak load demand, 113% and 219% for moderate and aggressive, respectively. Additionally, the results indicate a maximum hourly load change of 260% and 381% for the moderate and aggressive forecasts, respectively. These findings highlight a need for resource planning, which accounts for increases in demand and suggests that significant demand management is needed to smooth and control the load fluctuations as a result of the adoption of EVs, BTM solar, and heat pumps.

Forecasting streamflow accurately is essential to achieve an efficient integrated water resources management strategy and provide consistent support to water decision-makers. We present a simple, low-cost and robust approach for forecasting monthly and yearly streamflow during the hydrological year in course, applicable to headwater catchments. It combines the use of regression analysis techniques, the two-parameter Gamma continuous cumulative probability distribution function and the Monte Carlo method. It is based on a probabilistic comparison of the progression of the current hydrological year with the historic observed series. The methodology has been successfully applied to two headwater reservoirs within the Guadalquivir River Basin in southern Spain. The root-mean-square error and correlation coefficient were used to measure the accuracy of the model and the results showed good levels of reliability. The outputs are the probabilistic monthly and yearly streamflow and 80% confidence interval. Further reductions in prediction errors may be achieved from increasing the number of observed years. These risk-based predictions are of great value, especially, before the intensive irrigation campaign starts (usually in April), when Water Authorities are to take responsible management decisions about the best allocation of the available water volume between the different water users and environmental needs.

In-cloud ice mass accretion on wind turbines is a common challenge faced by energy companies operating in cold climates. On-shore wind farms in Scandinavia are often located in regions near patches of forest, the heterogeneity length scales of which are often less than the resolution of many numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The representation of these forests--including the cloud water response to surface roughness and albedo effects related to them--must therefore be parameterized in NWP models used as meteorological input in ice prediction systems, resulting in an uncertainty that is poorly understood and to present date not quantified. The sensitivity of ice accretion forecasts to the subgrid representation of forests is examined in this study. A single column version of the HARMONIE-AROME 3D NWP model is used to determine the sensitivity of the forecast of ice accretion on wind turbines to the subgrid forest fraction. Single column simulations of a variety of icing cases at a location in northern Sweden were examined in order to investigate the impact of vegetation cover on ice accretion in varying levels of solar insulation and wind magnitudes. In mid-winter cases, the wind speed response to surface roughness was the primary driver of the vegetation effect on ice accretion. In early season cases, the cloud water response to surface albedo effects plays a secondary role in the impact of in-cloud ice accretion, with the wind response to surface roughness remaining the primary driver for the surface vegetation impact on icing. Two different surface boundary layer (SBL) forest canopy subgrid parameterizations were tested in this study that feature different methods for calculating near-surface profiles of wind, temperature, and moisture, with the ice mass accretion again following the wind response to surface vegetation between both of these schemes.

We replace the current industry-standard empirical forecasts of oil production from hydrofractured horizontal wells in shales with a statistically and physically robust, accurate and precise approach, using the Bakken shale as an illustration. The proposed oil production forecasting method extends our previous work on predicting fieldwide gas production in the Barnett shale and merges it with our new scaling of oil production in shales. We first divide the existing 14,678 horizontal oil wells in the Bakken into 12 static samples in which depositional settings and completion technologies are similar. For each sample, we construct a purely data-driven P50 well prototype by merging the GEV distribution fits of oil production from appropriate well cohorts. We fit the parameters of our physics-based scaling curve to the statistical well prototypes, and obtain their smooth extrapolations to 30 years on production. By calculating the number of potential wells of each Bakken region, and scheduling future drilling programs, we stack up the extended well prototypes to achieve the most plausible forecast. We predict that Bakken will ultimately produce 5 billion barrels of oil from the existing wells, with the possible increments of 2 and 6 billion barrels from core and noncore areas.

Traffic Inspection (TI) work in this article is positioned as a specific module of road traffic with its primary function oriented towards monitoring and controlling safe traffic and the execution of significant events within a particular geographic area. Exploratory research on the significance of event execution in simple, complicated and complex traffic flow and process situations is related to the activities of monitoring and controlling functional states and performance of categorical variables, which include objects and locations of road infrastructure, communication infrastructure and networks of traffic inspection resources. It is emphasized that the words “work” and “traffic” have the semantic status as synonyms (in one world language), which is explained in the design of the Agent-based model of the complexity of content and contextual structure of TI work at the singular and plural level with 12 points of interest (POI) in the thematic research. An Event Execution Log (EEL) was created for on-site data collection with eight variables, seven of which are independent (event type, activities, objects, locations, host, duration-period and periodicity of the event) and one dependent (significance of the event) variable. The structured data set includes 10,994 input-output vectors in 970 categories collected in the EEL created by 32 human agents (traffic inspectors) over a 30-day period. An algorithmic presentation of the methodological research procedure for preprocessing and final data processing in the ensemble of machine learning models for classification and selection of TI tasks is given. Data cleaning was performed on the available dataset to increase data consistency for further processing. Vector elimination was carried out based on the Location variable, such that the total number of vectors equals the number of unique categories of this variable, which is 636. The main result of this research is the Classification modeling of the significance of events in TI work based on machine learning techniques and the Stacking ensemble. The created machine learning models for event significance classification modeling have high accuracy values. To evaluate the performance metrics of the Stacking ensemble of models, the confusion matrix, Precision, Recall, ND F1-score are used.

Smart cities, leveraging advanced data analytics, predictive models, and digital twin techniques, offer a transformative model for sustainable urban development. Predictive analytics plays a crucial role in proactive planning, enabling cities to adapt to evolving challenges. Concurrently, digital twin techniques provide a virtual replica of the urban environment, fostering real-time monitoring, simulation, and analysis of urban systems. This research underscores the significance of real-time monitoring, simulation, and analysis of urban systems to support test scenarios that identify bottlenecks and enhance smart city efficiency. The paper delves into the crucial roles of citizen report analytics, prediction, and digital twin technologies at the neighborhood level. The study integrates ETL/ELT processes, AI techniques, and a digital twin methodology to process and interpret urban data streams derived from citizen interactions with the city's coordinate-based problem mapping platform. By employing an interactive GeoDataFrame within the digital twin methodology, dynamic entities facilitate simulations based on various scenarios. This approach enables users to visualize, analyze, and predict the response of the urban system at the neighborhood level. Consequently, antecedent and predictive patterns, trends, and correlations are visualized at the physical level of each city area, leading to improvements in urban functionality, resilience, and resident quality of life.

Recent years have seen a rapid uptake in distributed energy resources (DER). Such technologies pose a number of challenges to network operators, which can ultimately limit the amount of rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) systems that can be connected to a network. The objective of this industry-based research was to determine the potential network effects of forecast levels of customer owned rooftop solar PV on Energy Queensland’s distribution network and formulate functions that can be used to determine such effects without the requirement for detailed network modeling and analysis. In this research, many of Energy Queensland’s distribution feeders were modelled using DIgSILENT PowerFactory and analyzed with forecast levels of solar PV and customer load. Python scripts were used to automate this process and quasi dynamic simulation (QDSL) models were used to represent the dynamic volt-watt and volt-var response of inverters, as mandated by the Australian Standard AS/NZS 4777. In analyzing the results, linear regression was used to form trend equations that represent various network characteristics against the number of PV connections. The trend equations provide a way of approximating network characteristics for other feeders under various levels of customer owned rooftop solar PV without the need for detail modeling.

Software project estimating (SPE) is a powerful but necessary step in the production of projects for software. Software project estimating includes several components, estimating software time, software resources, software costs, and software effort estimation (SEE). SEE seeks to estimate the number of "hours-person" and "months-person" of work required for developing or managing a software program. During the initial phase of the development of software, future efforts are impossible to predict. To estimate effort, many deep learning (DL) and machine learning (ML) models were previously created. For estimate, single-model techniques and ensemble methods were investigated in this research. Ensemble methods involve a combination of multiple separate models. Bagging, boosting, and voting were the ensemble methods looked into for estimation. Datasets considered for estimation were COCOMO81, COCOMONasa I, COCOMONasa II, Albrecht, Maxwell, China, Desharnais, Desharnais_1_1, Kitchenham, Boehm, and Belady. The evaluation criteria used MAE, RAE, RMSE, RRSE, and CC. The result from previous studies is that the total size of the set of data utilized is small in predicting the effort, as the largest size of the set of data used is the China dataset containing only 499 projects. So, in this study, the dataset has been merged to increase the total size of the set of data and increase the accuracy of prediction. The results indicated that the suggested merged dataset increased effort estimation accuracy.

Multilabel learning goes beyond standard supervised learning models by associating a sample with more than one class label. Among the many techniques developed in the last decade to handle multilabel learning best approaches are those harnessing the power of ensembles and deep learners. This work proposes merging both methods by combining a set of gated recurrent units, temporal convolutional neural networks, and long short-term memory networks trained with variants of the Adam optimization approach. We examine many Adam variants, each fundamentally based on the difference between present and past gradients, with step size adjusted for each parameter. We also combine Incorporating Multiple Clustering Centers and a bootstrap-aggregated decision trees ensemble, which is shown to further boost classification performance. In addition, we provide an ablation study for assessing the performance improvement that each module of our ensemble produces. Multiple experiments on a large set of datasets representing a wide variety of multilabel tasks demonstrate the robustness of our best ensemble, which is shown to outperform the state-of-the-art. The MATLAB code for generating the best ensembles in the experimental section will be made available at https://github.com/LorisNanni.

The dynamic increase in non-cash transactions is a global trend in payments. In rich countries, cashless transactions have been dynamically replacing cash. The fact that non-cash transactions are pro-ecological is worth noting. This means that it is conducive to sustainable development of a country's economy. The purpose of this study is to analyze the process of changes in non-cash payments in Poland, against the background of payment card use for ATM cash withdrawals. The tool used to analyze the potential process of cash transaction erosion caused by non-cash payments is a two-equation econometric model with feedback. For this purpose, statistical data, obtained from the National Bank of Poland was used. Accordingly, clarification is expected regarding the question of whether the Polish payment system is heading towards a dominance of cashless transactions or not. The reaction, in the form of changes in the value of non-cash payment card transactions in Poland, affected by the increase in the wealth of citizens, measured by an increase in the average pay, was examined. The modeling results were used to estimate forecasts of the share of non-cash transactions in the total value of market transactions and of the share of ATM cash withdrawals in the total value of transactions.

Explosion monitoring is performed by infrasound and seismoacoustic sensor networks that are distributed globally, regionally, and locally. However, these networks are unevenly and sparsely distributed, especially in the local scale as maintaining and deploying networks is costly. With increasing interest in smaller yield explosions, the need for more dense networks has increased. To address this issue, we propose using smartphone sensors for explosion detection as they are cost-effective and easy to deploy. Although there are studies using smartphone sensors for explosion detection, the field is still in its infancy and new technologies need to be developed. We applied a machine learning model for explosion detection using smartphone microphones. The data used were from the Smartphone High-explosion Audio Recordings Dataset (SHAReD), a collection of 326 waveforms from 70 high-explosive (HE) events recorded on smartphones, and the ESC-50 dataset, a benchmarking dataset commonly used for environmental sound classification. Two machine learning models were trained and combined into an ensemble model for explosion detection. The resulting ensemble model classified audio signals as either “explosion,” “ambient,” or “other” with true positive rates (recall) greater than 96% for all three categories.

Link prediction is a significant field in network science, which focuses on predicting the probability of the existence or formation of a link between nodes in a social network based on currently observed connections. The effectiveness of traditional algorithms can vary depending on the type of network, making some methods more suitable than others for specific scenarios. Recently, several efficient link prediction algorithms have been developed, demonstrating robust results in both prediction accuracy and interpretability. However, existing research has not clearly established the relationship between network characteristics and link creation mechanisms for community influence analysis and anomaly detection. The ability to predict complex networks with diverse features still requires further investigation. In light of this, we introduce a novel framework designed to combine the best features of different link prediction algorithms when applied to the network, with the aim of achieving more reliable predictions about how networks will evolve. According to the proposed framework, we first focus on the feature extraction stage. During this phase, we systematically identify and extract a comprehensive set of features from the network before moving onto the classification phase. Here, we utilize state-of-the-art ensemble learning models to assess and classify potential links within the network. By training our machine learning models on the extracted features, we can effectively predict whether a particular link is likely to form (positive link) or unlikely to form (negative link). The ML models were trained and evaluated using two datasets: Twitch and Facebook. Results: Additionally, we assessed their performance on these datasets by conducting specific preprocessing and hyperparameter tuning steps. The final prediction model achieves AUC values between 94% and 99.3%. This research contributes significantly to efforts aimed at enhancing link prediction in dynamic socisal network contexts, providing valuable insights into the effectiveness of different ML algorithms in predicting future connections and enhancing our understanding of network dynamics.

This paper explores the utilization of ensemble models and learning analytics techniques to predict student academic performance. With the advent of educational big data, institutions are increasingly leveraging advanced analytics to gain insights into student learning patterns and optimize educational outcomes. Ensemble models, which combine the predictive power of multiple algorithms, offer a robust approach to enhance prediction accuracy. The performance of the ensemble models was analyzed and compared using the Open University Learning Analytics Dataset, which consists of sources such as demographic information, historical performance data, and engagement metrics for 23,344 students. The evaluation of various ensemble models across different classification scenarios revealed that the proposed stacking model consistently emerges as the best-performing model, excelling in both multi-class and binary classification tasks.

Object classification is a crucial task in deep learning, which involves the identification and categorization of objects in images or videos. Although humans can easily recognize common objects, such as cars, animals, or plants, performing this task on a large scale can be time-consuming and error-prone. Therefore, automating this process using neural networks can save time and effort while achieving higher accuracy. Our study focuses on the classification step of human chromosome karyotyping, an important medical procedure that helps diagnose genetic disorders. Traditionally, this task is performed manually by expert cytologists, which is a time-consuming process that requires specialized medical skills. Therefore, automating it through deep learning can be immensely useful. To accomplish this, we implemented and adapted existing preprocessing and data augmentation techniques to prepare the chromosome images for classification. We used ResNet-50 convolutional neural networks and an ensemble approach to classify the chromosomes, obtaining state-of-the-art performance in the tested dataset.

The conventional machine learning (ML) algorithms are continuously advancing and evolving at a fast-paced by introducing the novel learning algorithms. ML models are continually improving using hybridization and ensemble techniques to empower computation, functionality, robustness, and accuracy aspects of modeling. Currently, numerous hybrid and ensemble ML models have been introduced. However, they have not been surveyed in a comprehensive manner. This paper presents the state of the art of novel ML models and their performance and application domains through a novel taxonomy.

By using various skill scores and spatial characteristics of spatial verification methods and tradi-tional techniques of the model evaluation tool (MET, V10.0.0), the gridded precipitation obser-vation CMPAV (V2.0) and three datasets that derived from local (LOC), Shanghai (SHA), and Grapes (GRA) model respectively are conducted to assess the 3 lead day rainfall forecast with 0.5-day intervals during summer of 2020 over central east China. Results have shown that LOC generally outperforms the other two for most skill scores but usually with relatively larger un-certainties than SHA, and it has the least displacement errors for moderate rainfall among the three datasets. However, the rainfall of GRA has been heavily underestimated and accompanied with large displacement error. Both LOC and SHA have shown almost equitable abilities in forecasting convection and rainstorms of the large area but with a slightly over-forecast of local convection, while LOC likely over-forecasts the local rainstorms. In addition, SHA slightly favors over-forecast on a broad scale range and a broad threshold range, and LOC slightly misses the rainfall exceeding 100 mm. Generally, for a broadly comparative evaluation on rainfall, the popular dichotomous methods should be recommended under considering reasonable classifi-cation of thresholds if the accuracy is highly demanded. And most spatial methods should be suggested to conduct with proper pre-handling of non-rainfall event cases. Especially, the veri-fications including spatial characteristic difference information could be recommended in a computationally sufficient environment.

Improvements that can be attained in seasonal climate predictions in various parts of Africa using the multimodel supersensemble scheme are presented in this study. The synthetic superensemble (SSE) used follows the approach originally developed at Florida State University (FSU). The technique takes more advantage of the skill in the climate forecast data sets from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models running at many centres worldwide including the WMO global producing centers (GPCs). The module used in this work drew data sets from the Four versions of FSU coupled model system, seven models from the DEMETER project which is the forerun to the current European Ensembles Forecast System, the NCAR Model, and the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), all making a set of 13 individual models. An archive consisting of monthly simulations of precipitation was available over all the 5 regions of Africa, namely Eastern, Central, Northern, Southern, and Western Africa. The results showed that the SSE forecast for precipitation carries a higher skill compared to each of the member models and the ensemble mean. Relative to the ensemble mean (EM), the SSE provides an improvement of 18% in simulation of season cycle of precipitation climatology. In Eastern Africa, during December-February season, a north-south gradient of precipitation prevails between Tropical East Africa and the sector of the region towards Southern Africa. This regional scale climate pattern is a direct influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITZC) across the African continent during this time of the year. The SSE emerges with superior skill scores such as lowest root mean square error above the EM and the member models, for example in the prediction of spatial location and precipitation magnitudes that characterize the see-saw precipitation pattern in Eastern Africa. In all parts of Africa, and especially Eastern Africa where seasonal precipitation variability is a frequent cause huge human suffering in due to droughts and famine, the multimodel superensemble and its subsequent improvements will always provide a forecast that out weighs the best Atmosphere-Ocean Climate Model.

Developing effective trend estimators is a main method to solve the online portfolio selection problem. Although the existing portfolio strategies have demonstrated good performance through the development of various trend estimators, it is still challenging to determine in advance which estimator will yield the maximum final cumulative wealth in online portfolio selection tasks. This paper studies an online ensemble approach for online portfolio selection by leveraging the strengths of multiple trend estimators. Specifically, a return-based loss function and a cross-entropy-based loss function are first designed to evaluate the adaptiveness of different trend estimators in a financial environment. On this basis, a passive aggressive ensemble model is proposed to weigh these trend estimators within a unit simplex according to their adaptiveness. Extensive experiments are conducted on benchmark datasets from various real-world stock markets to evaluate the performance. The results show that the proposed strategy achieves the state-of-the-art performance including efficiency and cumulative return.

We propose a new ensemble classification algorithm, named Super Random Subspace Ensemble (Super RaSE), to tackle the sparse classification problem. The proposed algorithm is motivated by the Random Subspace Ensemble algorithm (RaSE). The RaSE method was shown to be a flexible framework that can be coupled with any existing base classification. However, the success of RaSE largely depends on the proper choice of the base classifier, which is unfortunately unknown to us. In this work, we show that Super RaSE avoids the need to choose a base classifier by randomly sampling a collection of classifiers together with the subspace. As a result, Super RaSE is more flexible and robust than RaSE. In addition to the vanilla Super RaSE, we also develop the iterative Super RaSE, which adaptively changes the base classifier distribution as well as the subspace distribution. We show the Super RaSE algorithm and its iterative version perform competitively for a wide range of simulated datasets and two real data examples. The new Super RaSE algorithm and its iterative version are implemented in a new version of the R package RaSEn.

In this paper, we propose methods for brain tumor detection in MRI images based on ensemble learning. We build upon prior research on ensemble methods by testing the concatenation of pre-trained models: features extracted via transfer learning are merged and segmented by classification algorithms or a stacked ensemble of those algorithms. The proposed approach achieved accuracy scores of 0.98 , outperforming a benchmark VGG-16 model. Considerations to granular computing are given in the paper as well.

This paper surveys estimates of the transmission features of the novel coronavirus, and then proposes a model to address sample-selection bias in estimated determinants of infection. Containment assumptions of the infection forecasting models depend on assumed effects of policies and self-regulating behavior. In the commons dilemma of the pandemic, the perceived ‘low risks’ of unregulated marginal choices do not reflect the full social cost, implying non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) to reduce mortality can enhance social welfare. As more economic activity renews with liftings of restrictive NPI (RNPI), a critical question concerns the ability of milder NPI (MNPI) and voluntary precautions to mitigate the risk of greater infections and deaths while also limiting the pandemic’s economic damage and its social costs. Ineffective NPI could lead to continued COVID-19 waves and new types of crises, worsened expectations and delayed economic recoveries. From the central range of surveyed estimates of transmission and alternative herd-immunity-threshold estimates, a ‘worst-case’ virus guidepost suggests eventual deaths of around 25 to 41 million worldwide and 1.1 to 1.7 million in the U.S. needed to reach herd immunity with no vaccine or treatment. The most optimistic study surveyed (theoretical model from a non-reviewed preprint study) combined with the low end of the range of the estimated mortality rate suggests 6 to 9 million deaths worldwide and 250 to 370 thousand in the U.S. to reach herd immunity. Successes in the mix of NPI, treatments, and vaccine can limit the eventual global death toll of the virus. Improved estimation models for forecasting and decision making may assist in better targeting the local timings and mix of NPI. Diagnostic tests for the virus have been largely limited to symptomatic cases, causing possible sample selection bias. A recursive bivariate probit model of infection and testing is proposed along with several possible applications from cross-section or panel-data estimation. Multiple potential explanatory variables, data sources, and estimation needs are specified and discussed.

To effectively preserve marine environments and manage endangered species, it is necessary to employ efficient, precise, and scalable solutions for environmental monitoring. Ecoacoustics provides several benefits as it enables non-intrusive, prolonged sampling of environmental sounds, making it a promising tool for conducting biodiversity surveys. However, analyzing and interpreting acoustic data can be time-consuming and often demands substantial human supervision. This challenge can be addressed by harnessing contemporary methods for automated audio signal analysis, which have exhibited remarkable performance due to advancements in deep learning research. This paper introduces a research investigation into developing an automatic computerized system to detect dolphin whistles. The proposed method utilizes a fusion of various resnet50 networks integrated with data augmentation techniques. Through extensive experiments conducted on a publically available benchmark, our findings demonstrate that our ensemble yields significant performance enhancements across all evaluated metrics. The MATLAB/PyTorch source code is freely available at: https://github.com/LorisNanni/

Lower Back Pain (LBP) is a disease that needs immediate attention. Person with back pain shall go immediately to doctor for treatment. Injury, excessive works and some medical conditions are result of back pain. Back pain is common to any age of human for different reasons. Due to factors such as previous occupation and degenerative disk disease the chance of developing lower back pain increases for older people. It hampers the working condition of people common reason for seeking medical treatment. The result is absence from work and is unable to normal due to pain. It creates uncomfortable and debilitating situations. Hence, detecting this disease at an early stage will assist the medical field experts to suggest counter measures to the patients. Detection of lower back pain is implemented in this paper by applying ensemble machine learning technique. This paper proposes Stacking ensemble classifier as an automated tool that will predict lower back pain tendency of a patient. Experimental result implies that the proposed method reaches an accuracy of 76.34%, f1-score of 0.76 and MSE of 0.34.

Climate change poses new challenges for agricultural production as an increase in temperature also brings an increase in frequency and intensity of droughts. We study the occurrences of droughts in recent years as well as their effect on agricultural yields in combination with other factors such as winter frost. Furthermore we run experiments that aim to predict future drought events in order to provide insights whether current agricultural products will remain viable long-term and to indicate short-term drought risks. Our study area consists of the South-Moravian region in the Czech Republic and Saxony in Germany with the timeframe ranging from 1990 − 2022. For the effect on agricultural yields we use statistical methods such as regression and correlation. We train a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural net on data for the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in order to predict future events. Our results indicate that the increased severity of droughts in recent years didn’t yet cause yield losses in our researched area. Our predictions with the LSTM look promising, but will need more data for future use-cases in order to increase accuracy and robustness.

This study evaluates the effectiveness of Darknet53 and VGG16 pretrained models to develop a hybrid ensemble model named HybridPlantNet23 deep learning model for effective plant disease classification, using the publicly available dataset ‘A Dataset of Leaf Images’ from Mendeley webpage. The preprocessing of the dataset involved resizing the images to the respective requirements of the pretrained models to develop a combined datastore which served as the input. All experiments were conducted using MATLAB R2023b deep network designer interface. Model performances were evaluated based on the conventional accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. VGG16 achieved the highest accuracy (97.25%), precision (96.30%), recall (96.96%), and F1-score (96.55%), outperforming both Darknet53 and the ensemble HybridPlantNet23 model. Despite the advanced architecture of the ensemble model, its performance (accuracy: 95.37%, precision: 93.56%, recall: 94.20%, F1-score: 93.74%) was not significantly superior, thus highlighting scientific reasons behind this development. Recommendations for future works were provided accordingly.

The study combines two critical aspects of climate research in Nigeria. The first segment focuses on improving predictive performance of global circulation models (GCMs) employing ensemble techniques. ANN ensemble displayed significant improvement in the accuracy of climate projections, particularly in high-altitude geographic areas where traditional models exhibit limitations. Performance evaluation metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) demonstrate the effectiveness of the ANN multimodal ensemble. Building on the improved climate modelling, the second segment delves into a spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall and mean temperature patterns under climate change in Nigeria. By considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the study utilizes dynamically downscaled GCMs obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The Mann-Kendall test reveals significant spatiotemporal variations in climate trends across the country. The warming trend is particularly pronounced in the northern regions, with RCP8.5 showing more severe impacts compared to RCP4.5. This integrated approach not only highlights the importance of multimodal ensembles in climate modelling but also provides valuable insights into the spatial and temporal patterns of climate change to inform effective adaptation and mitigation strategies for Nigeria.

In this paper, solar irradiance and wind speed forecasts were performed considering time horizons ranging from 10 min to 60 min, under a 10 min time-step. Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and wind speed were computed using four forecasting models (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbours, Support Vector Regression, and Elastic Net) to compare their performance against two alternative dynamic ensemble methods (windowing and arbitrating). Forecasting models and dynamic forecasting ensembles were implemented in Python for performance evaluation. The performance comparison between the prediction models and the dynamic ensemble methods was carried out by evaluating the RMSE, MAE, R² and MAPE, to evaluate whether the dynamic ensemble forecasting method obtained greater. According to the results obtained windowing dynamic ensemble method was the most efficient among the tested. For the wind speed data, by varying its parameter λ (from 1 to 100), a variable performance profile was obtained, where from λ =1 to λ = 74, windowing proved to be the most efficient, reaching maximum efficiency for λ = 19. Windowing was the best method for the GHI analysis, reaching its best performance for λ = 1. The efficiency gain using windowing was 0.56% when using the wind speed model and 1.96% for GHI.

The world health organisation (WHO) revealed approximately 280 million people in the world suffer from depression. Yet, existing studies on early-stage depression detection using machine learning (ML) techniques are limited. Prior studies have applied a single stand-alone algorithm which are unable to deal with data complexities, prone to overfitting and limited in generalisation. To this end, our paper examined the performance of several ML algorithms for early-stage depression detection using two benchmark social media datasets (D1 and D2). More specifically, we incorporated sentiment indicator to improve our model performance. Our experimental results showed that sentence bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (SBERT) numerical vectors fitted into stacking ensemble model achieved comparable F1 scores of 69% in dataset (D1) and 76% in dataset (D2). Our findings suggest that utilising sentiment indicators as additional feature for depression detection yields an improved model performance and thus, we recommend the development of depressive term corpus for future work.

Communication is a key method of expressing one's thoughts and opinions. Amongst many modalities, speech and writing are the most powerful and common forms of human communication. Analysing what and how people think has inherently been an interesting and progressive research domain. This includes bimodal sentiment analysis which is an emerging area in natural language processing (NLP) and has received a great deal of attention in recent years in a variety of areas including social opinion mining, health care, banking, and so on. At present, there are limited studies on bimodal conversational sentiment analysis as it proves to be a challenging area given the complex nature of the way humans express sentiment cues across various modalities. To address this gap, a comparison of the performance of multiple data modality models has been conducted on the MELD dataset, a widely-used dataset for benchmarking sentiment analysis within the research community. Our work then demonstrates the results of combining acoustic and linguistic representations. Lastly, our proposed neural network-based ensemble learning technique is employed over six transformer and deep learning-based models, achieving a State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) accuracy.

There are uncertainties associated with every phase of the stock assessment process, ranging from the collection of data, assessment model choice, model assumptions and interpretation of risk to the implementation of management advice. The dynamics of fish populations are complex, and our incomplete understanding of those dynamics (and limited observations of important mechanisms) necessitate that models are simpler than nature. The aim is for the model to capture enough of the dynamics to accurately estimate trends and abundance and to provide advice to managers about sustainable harvests. The \textit{status quo} approach to assessment modelling has been to identify the `best' model, based on diagnostics and model selection criteria, and to generate advice from that model, mostly ignoring advice from other model configurations regardless of how closely they performed relative to the chosen model. We review the suitability of the ensemble modelling paradigm to more fully capture uncertainty in stock assessment model building and the provision of advice. We recommend further research to evaluate potential gains in modelling performance and advice from the use of ensemble modelling, while also suggesting revisions to the formal process for reviewing models and providing advice to management bodies.

Software fault prediction is the very consequent research topic for software quality assurance. Data driven approaches provide robust mechanisms to deal with software fault prediction. However, the prediction performance of the model highly depends on the quality of dataset. Many software datasets suffers from the problem of class imbalance. In this regard, under-sampling is a popular data pre-processing method in dealing with class imbalance problem, Easy Ensemble (EE) present a robust approach to achieve a high classification rate and address the biasness towards majority class samples. However, imbalance class is not the only issue that harms performance of classifiers. Some noisy examples and irrelevant features may additionally reduce the rate of predictive accuracy of the classifier. In this paper, we proposed two-stage data pre-processing which incorporates feature selection and a new Rough set Easy Ensemble scheme. In feature selection stage, we eliminate the irrelevant features by feature ranking algorithm. In the second stage of a new Rough set Easy Ensemble by incorporating Rough K nearest neighbor rule filter (RK) afore executing Easy Ensemble (EE), named RKEE for short. RK can remove noisy examples from both minority and majority class. Experimental evaluation on real-world software projects, such as NASA and Eclipse dataset, is performed in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. Furthermore, this paper comprehensively investigates the influencing factor in our approach. Such as, the impact of Rough set theory on noise-filter, the relationship between model performance and imbalance ratio etc. comprehensive experiments indicate that the proposed approach shows outstanding performance with significance in terms of area-under-the-curve (AUC).

As the primary secondary tree species in Northeast China, Quercus mongolica possesses significant ecological and economic value. This study employed the Biomod2 platform in conjunction with ArcGIS spatial analysis to assess the potential suitable habitat distribution area of Q. mongolica under current climatic conditions. Furthermore, it forecasted the distribution range and niche changes of potentially suitable habitats for Q. mongolica from 2022 to 2090, and pinpointed the key environmental factors influencing its distribution. The findings reveal that the total potential suitable area for Q. mongolica covers 74,994.792 km², predominantly spread across Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin, and other regions. The primary determinants of suitable area distribution were peak temperature of hottest month, lowest temperature of coldest month and altitude. Under future climate scenarios, the potentially suitable habitats of Q. mongolica are anticipated to diminish to varying extents, with the distribution center exhibiting a tendency towards northward migration. Concurrently, the overlap among different climate scenarios is predicted to expand over time. This investigation facilitates a comprehensive understanding of Q. mongolica's adaptation to climate change, enabling informed adjustments and serving as a valuable reference for the preservation and sustainable management of Q. mongolica populations.

This research centres on advancing the utilisation of a novel Deep Ensemble model called RicEns-Net for predicting crop yields through sophisticated multi-modal data engineering. Initially, data for the study were acquired from Ernst \& Young (EY), a prominent global technology and management consulting firm, as part of their annual data science challenge (EY Open Science Challenge 2023). The predictive models leverage multi-modal data by integrating radar and optical-type remote sensing data alongside meteorological data to create supplementary features essential for predicting crop yield. The primary data features are derived from spectral indices extracted from Sentinel 2 satellites, while more advanced features are generated through combinations and interactions of these fundamental features. Furthermore, data from Sentinel 1 and 3, along with meteorological measurements such as surface temperature and rainfall, account for the intricate natural factors influencing crop yield, creating a comprehensive set of data features based on existing research. To tackle the complexity introduced by numerous data features, extensive data engineering was conducted to identify the most predictive features among 100+ and mitigate the "curse of dimensionality," resulting in 15 features from 5 different modalities. The proposed RicEns-Net comprises multiple machine learning algorithms in a deep ensemble approach to leverage the best features of each of these techniques, achieving optimal performance. The proposed model achieves an MAE value of 341 kg/Ha for prediction, surpassing the performance of the EY Open Science Challenge 2023 winner models and state-of-the-art deep/machine learning approaches.

Recent advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and generative models have significantly accelerated the evolution of internet services. In data centers, where data is often distributed across multiple machines, leveraging these machines to expedite the training of machine learning applications is common. However, this approach incurs substantial communication overhead. To mitigate this, data compression techniques such as quantization, sparsification, and dimension reduction are gaining attention, especially with iterative training algorithms that frequently exchange gradients. With the advancement of FPGA technology, FPGA-based bump-in-the-wire network interface controllers (smartNICs) have demonstrated notable benefits for data centers, matching ASIC switches in port-to-port latency and capacity. However, FPGA-based switches often have spare hardware resources beyond their switching functions, which are typically wasted. we propose a novel architecture that integrates FPGA-based switches with ensemble learning methods, utilizing these spare resources on FPGA-based network switches. This architecture employs random projection as a compression method to accelerate machine learning tasks while maintaining high accuracy. Our system accelerates the training process for Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) models with a speedup of 2.1-6.7 times across four high-dimensional datasets. In addition, it leverages the Hamming distance metric for k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) classification, combining random projection with Hamming encoding, to offload large-scale classification tasks from downstream servers. This achieves a worst-case speedup of 2.3-8.7 times and a memory reduction of 3.9-27.7 times compared to CPU-based kNN classifiers using cosine distance. Our architecture addresses the challenges of high-dimensional data processing and exemplifies the potential of AI-driven solutions in accelerating and optimizing internet services. Moreover, the programmability of FPGAs allows the system to adopt various compression methods, extending its applicability. Offloading tasks to FPGAs can significantly reduce query response times, showcasing a crucial step towards achieving greater levels of autonomic computing and the rapid evolution of internet systems.

Solar radiation corresponds to fundamental parameters for solar photovoltaic (PV) technology. Reliable solar radiation prediction became valuable to design solar PV systems, performance, operatively efficient planning, safety operation, grid dispatch and financial characteristics. However, high quality ground-based solar radiation measurements are scarce, especially for very short-term time horizon. Most of the existent studies trained the machine learning (ML) model used dataset with time horizon of 1-hour or day, very fewer studies have been reported using a dataset with a 1-mitute time horizon. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation of nine ensemble learning algorithms (ELA) is performed to estimate the solar radiation in Santo Domingo with a 1-minute time horizon dataset collected from a local weather station. The ensemble learning evaluated included seven homogeneous ensembles; Random Forest (RF), Extra Tree (ET), Adaptive Gradient Boosting (AGB), Gradient Boosting (GB), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Light Gradient Boosting (LGBM), Histogram-based Gradient Boosting (HGB) and heterogeneous ensemble named as Voting and Stacking. RF, ET, GB, HGB were combined to develop Voting and Stacking and Linear Regression (LR) was adopted in the second layer of the Stacking. Five technical metrics, Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Coefficient of Determination (R2) were used as criteria to determine the prediction quality of the developed ensemble algorithms. Comparison of the results indicates that the HGB algorithm offers superior prediction performance among the homogeneous ensemble learning and overall, the Stacking provides the best accuracy with metric values of MSE=3218.27, RMSE= 56.73, MAE=29.87, MAPE=10.60, R2=0.964.

Predicting credit default risk is important to financial institutions, as accurately predicting the likelihood of a borrower defaulting on their loans will help to reduce financial losses, thereby maintaining profitability and stability. Although machine learning models have been used in assessing large applications with complex attributes for these predictions, there is still a need to identify the most effective techniques and to also address the issue of data imbalance. In this research, we conducted a comparative analysis of random forest, decision tree, SVM (Support Vector Machine), XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting), ADABoost (ADAptive Boosting) and multilayered perceptron with three-hidden layers, to predict credit default using loan data from LendingClub. Additionally, we also combined the model predictions using voting and stacking ensemble methods to enhance the models' performance. Furthermore, various sampling techniques was explored to handle the issue of class imbalance observed in the dataset, with the result showing that the balanced data performs better than the imbalanced data. Our proposed model achieved an accuracy of 93.7%, a precision of 95.6% and a recall of 95.5%, which shows the potential of ensemble methods in improving credit default predictions and can provide lending platforms with the tool to reduce default rates and financial losses. In conclusion, the findings from this study have broader implications for financial institutions, offering a robust approach to risk assessment beyond the Lend-ingClub dataset.

Financial fraud poses a severe threat to the integrity of corporate financial statements and market efficiency. While auditors play a crucial role in detecting and preventing such fraud, the unique characteristics of this domain, including class imbalance, high misclassification costs, and am-biguous attributes, pose significant challenges. Traditional classification algorithms may not be optimally suited for this task. This paper proposes a novel stacking ensemble learning approach to enhanced detecting of Financial Statement Scam. By combining the strengths of multiple base learners, including Random Forest, XGBoost, and Gradient Boosting Decision Trees, our model leverages their diverse predictions to improve overall performance. A Logistic Regression me-ta-learner is employed to integrate the outputs of the base learners, capturing their collective wisdom while mitigating individual weaknesses. Extensive experimentation using a real-world dataset shown the superiority of our approach, achieving remarkable recall, precision, accuracy, and area under the curve metrics. The proposed model outperforms individual base learners, under-scoring the efficacy of ensemble learning in tackling the intricate problem of financial fraud detection. This research contributes to the creation of substantial and robust fraud detection systems, fostering trust and transparency in financial markets.

In the era of digital advancements, the escalation of credit card fraud necessitates the development of robust and efficient fraud detection systems. This paper delves into the application of machine learning models, specifically focusing on ensemble methods, to enhance credit card fraud detection. Through an extensive review of existing literature, we identified limitations in current fraud detection technologies, including issues like data imbalance, concept drift, false positives/negatives, limited generalisability, and challenges in real-time processing. To address some of these shortcomings, we propose a novel ensemble model that integrates a Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RF), Bagging, and Boosting classifiers. This ensemble model tackles the dataset imbalance problem associated with most credit card datasets by implementing under-sampling and the Synthetic Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) on some machine learning algorithms. The evaluation of the model utilises a dataset comprising transaction records from European credit card holders, providing a realistic scenario for assessment. The methodology of the proposed model encompasses data pre-processing, feature engineering, model selection, and evaluation, with Google Colab computational capabilities facilitating efficient model training and testing. Comparative analysis between the proposed ensemble model, traditional machine learning methods, and individual classifiers reveals the superior performance of the ensemble in mitigating challenges associated with credit card fraud detection. Across accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score metrics, the ensemble outperforms existing models. This paper underscores the efficacy of ensemble methods as a valuable tool in the battle against fraudulent transactions. The findings presented lay the groundwork for future advancements in the development of more resilient and adaptive fraud detection systems, crucial as credit card fraud techniques continue to evolve.

Due to the recent trend of unmanned economy, retail stores have gradually reduced their service and cashier manpower. The retail product recognition becomes one of key issues for unmanned shopping. Although the success of deep neural networks has made object recognition feasible in a variety of applications, it still struggles to perform well on a large number of classes of retail products. In this paper, we propose an improved ensemble learning-based approach for retail product recognition. In the proposed approach, the object classification network is first improved through feature extraction and block attention. An ensemble model is then built by integrating multiple network models and using loss selection as model weights. In the experiments, the feasibility of our ensemble learning-based approach has been evaluated through many production items. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach compared with previous retail product recognition methods.

Many quantum devices signals are proportional to the number of the participating atoms that take part in the detection devices. Among these are optical magnetometers, atomic clocks, and atoms interferometers. One way to enhance the signal to noise ratio is to introduce atoms entanglement that increases the signal in a super-radiant like effect. An initial novel experiment to test the realization of atoms correlation is described here. A Cs optical magnetometer is used as a tool to test the operation of a cell-in-cavity laser and its characteristics. A vapor cell is inserted in-to an elongated external cavity of the pump laser in Littrow configuration. Higher atom polarization and reduced laser linewidth are obtained leading to better magnetometer sensitivity and signal-to-noise ratio. The Larmor frequency changes of the Free Induction Decay of optically pumped Cs atomic polarization in ambient earth magnetic field at room temperature is measured. Temporal changes in the magnetic field of less than 10 pT/Hz are measured. The first order dependence of the magnetic field on temperature and temperature gradients is eliminated, important in many practical applications. Single and gradiometric magnetometer con-figurations are presented.

Energy demand forecasting is a fundamental aspect of modern energy management. It impacts resource planning, economic stability, environmental sustainability, and energy security. This importance is making it critical for countries worldwide, particularly in cases like Türkiye, where the energy dependency ratio is notably high. The goal of this study is to propose ensemble machine learning methods such as boosting, bagging, blending, and stacking with hyperparameter tuning and k-fold cross-validation, and investigate the application of these methods for predicting Türkiye's energy demand. This study utilizes population, GDP per capita, imports and exports as input parameters based on historical data from 1979 to 2021 in Türkiye. Eleven combinations of all predictor variables were analyzed, and the best one was selected. It was observed that a very high correlation exists among population, GDP, imports, exports, and energy demand. In the first phase, the preliminary performance was investigated of 19 different machine learning algorithms using 5-fold cross-validation and measured their performance using five different metrics: MSE, RMSE, MAE, R-squared, and MAPE. Secondly, ensemble models were constructed by utilizing individual machine learning algorithms, and the performance of these ensemble models was compared with both each other and the best-performing individual machine learning algorithm. The analysis of the results revealed that placing Ridge as the meta-learner and using ET, RF and Ridge as the base learners in the stacking ensemble model produced superior results compared to the other models across performance metrics. It is anticipated that the findings of this research can be applied globally and prove valuable for energy policy planning in any country. The results obtained not only highlight the accuracy and effectiveness of our predictive model but also underscore the broader implications of this study within the framework of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

This paper presents a study of an automated system for identifying planktic foraminifera at the species level. The system uses a combination of deep learning methods, specifically Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), to analyze digital images of foraminifera taken at different illumination angles. The dataset is composed of 1437 groups of sixteen grayscale images, one group for each foraminifer, that are then converted to RGB images with various processing methods. These RGB images are fed into a set of CNNs, organized in an Ensemble Learning (EL) environment. The ensemble is built by training different networks using different approaches for creating the RGB images. The study finds that an ensemble of CNN models trained on different RGB images improves the system's performance compared to other state-of-the-art approaches. The proposed system was also found to outperform human experts in classification accuracy.

Talbot effect is a self-imaging or lensless imaging phenomenon of a periodic grating illuminated by a collimated light beam at regular distances from the grating. Research on the Talbot effect has recently made significant strides thanks to the quick development of optical superlattices. The emergence of various applications of this effect in fields such as optics, acoustics, X-ray, plasmonics, and information processing has led to the increasing importance of obtaining a Talbot carpet with the use of different structures. In this paper, we investigate the Talbot effect that originates from the tunneling effect between an ensemble of vertically coupled cylindrical quantum dots (QDs). The Talbot carpet can be manipulated by changing the parameters of the QD system. In the current paper, two modified Pöschl-Teller potentials were used to model the QDs ensemble. The exciton’s lifetime and tunneling time’s dependence on the first QD’s potential half-width is found for a fixed value of the external electric field. The nonlinear changes in the refractive index and absorption spectrum dependent on the tunneling effect are obtained. Afterward, the Talbot carpet formation is investigated, particularly the dependences of the formed periodic wavefront’s visibility on medium length, coupling field’s strength, and tunneling parameter. Finally, we have observed the intensity distribution of the diffraction field at Talbot half-distance.

Ransomware is one of the most dangerous types of malware, which is frequently intended to spread through a network to damage the designated client by encrypting the client’s vulnerable data. Conventional signature-based ransomware detection technique falls behind because it can only detect known anomalies. When it comes to new and non-familiar ransomware traditional system unveils huge shortcomings. For detecting unknown patterns and sorts of new ransomware families,behavior-based anomaly detection approaches are likely to be the most efficient approach. In the wake of this alarming condition, this paper presents an ensemble classification model consisting of three widely used machine learning techniques that include Decision Tree (DT), RandomForest (RF), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN). To achieve the best outcome ensemble soft voting and hard voting techniques are used while classifying ransomware families based on attack attributes. Performance analysis is done by comparing our proposed ensemble models with standalone models on behavioral attributes based ransomware dataset..

While the use of crime data has been widely advocated in the literature, its availability is often limited to large urban cities and isolated databases tend not to allow for spatial comparisons. This paper presents an efficient machine learning framework capable of predicting spatial crime occurrences, without using past crime as a predictor, and at a relatively high resolution: the U.S. Census Block Group level. The proposed framework is based on an in-depth multidisciplinary literature review allowing the selection of 188 best-fit crime predictors from socio-economic, demographic, spatial, and environmental data. Such data are published periodically for the entire United States. The selection of the appropriate predictive model was made through a comparative study of different machine learning families of algorithms, including generalized linear models, deep learning, and ensemble learning. The gradient boosting model was found to yield the most accurate predictions for violent crimes, property crimes, motor vehicle thefts, vandalism, and the total count of crimes. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets of crimes reported in 11 U.S. cities demonstrated that the proposed framework achieves an accuracy of 73 and 77% when predicting property crimes and violent crimes, respectively.

Automated medical diagnosis is one of the important machine learning applications in the domain of healthcare. In this regard, most of the approaches primarily focus on optimizing the accuracy of classification models. In this research, we argue that unlike general-purpose classification problems, medical applications, such as chronic kidney disease (CKD) diagnosis, require special treatment. In the case of CKD, apart from model performance, other factors such as the cost of data acquisition may also be taken into account to enhance the applicability of the automated diagnosis system. In this research, we have proposed two techniques for cost-sensitive feature ranking. An ensemble of decision tree models is employed in both the techniques for computing the worth of a feature in the CKD dataset. An automatic threshold selection heuristic is also introduced which is based on the intersection of features’ worth and their accumulated cost. A set of experiments are conducted to evaluate the efficacy of the proposed techniques on both tree-based and non-tree based classification models. The proposed approaches are also evaluated against several comparative techniques. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the proposed techniques select around 1/4^th of the original CKD features while reducing the cost by a factor of 7.42 of the original feature set. Based on the extensive experimentation it is concluded that the proposed techniques employing feature-cost interaction heuristic tend to select feature subsets that are both useful and cost-effective.

The very first case of corona-virus illness was recorded on 30 January 2020, in India and the number of infected cases, including the death toll, continues to rise. In this paper, we present short-term forecasts of COVID-19 for 28 Indian states and five union territories using real-time data from 30 January to 20May 2020. Applying Holt’s second-order exponential smoothing method and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, we generated 10-day ahead forecasts of the likely number of infected cases and deaths in India until 29 May2020. Our results show that the number of cumulative cases in India will rise to169109 [PI 95% (14426, 19455)], concurrently the number of deaths may increase to 4863 [PI 95% (4221, 5551)] by 29 May 2020.Further, we have marked the states (e.g. Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu) where outburst is expected by considering the cases above three standard deviations. Under the worst-case scenario, Maharashtra is likely to be the most affected state with around 62628 [PI 95% (52840, 73555)] cumulative cases by 29 May 2020. However, Kerala and Karnataka are likely to remain in the lesser affected region. The presented results mark the states where lockdown by 1 June2020, can be loosened.

The Covid19 pandemic and the current wars in some countries have put incredible pressures on the global economy. Challenges for the U.S. include not only economic factors, major disruptions and reorganizations of the supply chains, but also those of national security and global geopolitics. This unprecedented situation makes predicting economic crisis for the coming years crucial yet challenging. In this paper, we propose a method based on various machine-learning models to predict the probability of a recession for the US economy in the next year. We collect the U.S’ monthly macroeconomics indicators and recession data from January of 1983 to December of 2023 to predict the probability of an economic recession in 2024. The performance of the individual economics indicator for the coming year was predicted separately, and then all of the the predicted indicators were used to forecast a possible economic recession. Our results showed that the U.S. will face a high probability of being in a recession period in the last quarter of 2024.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has released reports indicating that heart disorders hold the unfortunate distinction of being the primary cause of death worldwide. Shockingly, an astonishing estimated 17.9 million lives are claimed by heart diseases annually, accounting for an alarming 31% of all global deaths. With all the flaws in the clinical situation, it is frequently challenging to assess the severity of cardiac disease and forecast its course of progression due to heterogeneity and complex interplay of factors. Therefore, early heart disease detection is essential for effective therapy. To address these challenges, Machine Learning (ML) boosting algorithms play a pivotal role as the main components of predictive analytics required to do this. The main objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive comparative framework to predict heart diseases using state-of-the-art machine learning with boosting techniques such as Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Catboost, XGboost, Light GBM, and Adaboost. To evaluate the performance of the models, a large heart disorders dataset is used from the UCI machine learning repository, comprised of 26 feature-based numerical and categorical attributes with 8763 samples from all over the globe. The Experimental results reveal that AdaBoost attained the highest accuracy of 95% and outperforms other algorithms concerning various performance measures like precision= 0.98, recall= 0.95, specificity= 0.95, f1-score=0.01, Negative predicted value= 0.83, False positive rate= 0.04, False negative rate= 0.04 and False Development rate= 0.01.

Deepfakes are manipulated or altered images, or video, that are created using deep learning models with high levels of photorealism. The two popular methods of producing a deepfake are based on either convolutional neural networks (CNN), or autoencoders. Deepfakes created using CNN comparatively show higher qualities of realism, yet oftentimes leave artifacts and distortions in the generated media that can be detected using machine learning and deep learning algorithms. In recent years, there has been an influx of periocular image and video data because of the increase usage of face masks. By wearing masks, much of what is used for facial recognition is hidden, leaving only the periocular region visible to an observer. This loss of vital information leads to easier misidentification of media, allowing deepfakes to less likely be identified as fake. In this work, feature extraction methods, such as Scale-Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT), Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG), and CNN, are used to train an ensemble deep learning model to detect deepfakes in videos on a frame-by-frame level based on the periocular region. Our proposed model is able to distinguish original and manipulated images with accuracies around 98.9 percent, which is an improvement to previous works by combining SIFT and HOG for deepfake detection in convolutional neural networks.

Increasingly measured data in the context of smart cities can be used to develop new and innovative business models to increase efficiency and the value of life. A time-series classification algorithm can support to automatize many different processes such as forecasting services. In order to ensure data security and privacy, Federated Learning trains a global model collaboratively on multiple clients. Having different data-distributions and data-quantities across participating clients, neural networks suffer from slow convergence and overfitting. Based on different data-distributions, data-quantities and number of clients, we develop and evaluate different data-clustering strategies to update global model weights in comparison to the state of the art. We use public time-series data, generate various synthetic datasets and train a Relational-Regularized Autoencoder for classification purposes. Our results show an improvement of model performance concerning generalization.

Ensembles of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) represent the geographic ranges of pathogen vectors by combining alternative analytical approaches and merging information on vector occurrences with more extensive environmental data. Biased collection data impact SDMs, regardless of the target species but no studies have compared the differences in the distributions predicted by the ensemble models when different sampling frameworks are used for the same species. We compared Ensemble SDMs for two important Ixodid tick vectors, Amblyomma americanum and Ixodes scapularis in mainland Florida, USA, when inputs were either convenience samples of ticks, or collections obtained using the standard protocols promulgated by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Ensemble SDMs for the convenience samples and standard surveys showed only a slight agreement (Kappa = 0.060, A. americanum; 0.053, I. scapularis). Convenience sample SDMs indicated A. americanum and I. scapularis should be absent from 34.5% and 30.9% of the state where standard surveys predicted the highest likelihood of occurrence of the respective vectors. Ensemble models from standard surveys predicted 81.4% and 72.5% (A. americanum and I. scapularis) of convenience sample sites. Omission errors by standard survey SDMs, of the convenience collections, frequently were associated with adjacency to at least one SDM or errors in geocoding algorithms that failed to correctly locate convenience samples. These geocoding errors emphasize commonly overlooked needs to explicitly evaluate and improve data quality for vector survey data used in spatial models.

Capability assessment plays a crucial role in the demonstration and construction of equipment. To improve the accuracy and stability of capability assessment, we study the neural network learning algorithms in the field of capability assessment and index sensitivity. Aiming at the problem of over-fitting and parameter optimization in neural network learning, the paper proposes an improved machine learning algorithm—the Ensemble Learning Based on Policy Optimization Neural Networks (ELPONN) algorithm with the policy optimization and ensemble learning. This algorithm presents optimized neural network learning algorithm through different strategies evolution, and builds an ensemble learning model of multi-intelligent algorithms to assessment the capability and analyze the sensitivity of the indexes. Through the assessment of capabilities, the algorithm effectively avoids parameter optimization from entering the minimum point in performance to improve the accuracy of equipment capability assessment, which is significantly better than previous neural network assessment methods. The experimental results show that the mean relative error is 4.10%, which is better than BP, GABP, and early stopping. The ELPONN algorithm has better accuracy and stability performance, and meets the requirements of capability assessment.

Tail-biting convolutional codes extend the classical zero-termination convolutional codes: Both encoding schemes force the equality of start and end states, but under the tail-biting each state is a valid termination. This paper proposes a machine-learning approach to improve the state-of-the-art decoding of tail-biting codes, focusing on the widely employed short length regime as in the LTE standard. This standard also includes a CRC code. First, we parameterize the circular Viterbi algorithm, a baseline decoder that exploits the circular nature of the underlying trellis. An ensemble combines multiple such weighted decoders, each decoder specializes in decoding words from a specific region of the channel words' distribution. A region corresponds to a subset of termination states; the ensemble covers the entire states space. A non-learnable gating satisfies two goals: it filters easily decoded words and mitigates the overhead of executing multiple weighted decoders. The CRC criterion is employed to choose only a subset of experts for decoding purpose. Our method achieves FER improvement of up to 0.75dB over the CVA in the waterfall region for multiple code lengths, adding negligible computational complexity compared to the circular Viterbi algorithm in high SNRs.

The lack of a generalizable machine learning model for predicting the safety of food for 1 human consumption is a significant challenge for policymakers and responsible authorities. This 2 study provides a step-by-step guide to predict the results of seafood product import inspections, 3 focusing on identifying and understanding the critical factors that influence these results. By compar- 4 ing the performances of an ensemble of machine learning models, this study combines the strengths 5 of multiple algorithms to improve the predictive accuracy and gain insights into the key factors 6 impacting them. The ensemble model based on the soft voting technique achieves superior perfor- 7 mance to that based on the hard voting technique in terms of the recall and area under the curve 8 (AUC) scores. The study discovered that various characteristics, such as the exporting country ratio, 9 major product category, overseas manufacturer ratio, importer ratio, and seasonal variation, had a 10 substantial influence on the models’ decisions. This research guide for predicting seafood product 11 import inspection results could pave the path for other items to follow.

Falls, especially those left unattended, are fatal for the elderly. Several efforts have been made to use the Internet of Things and Machine Learning algorithms to detect falls. All such systems have issues such as (a) sensor placement on the torso and thigh which will be uncomfortable for the elderly. (b) Predictions made on the cloud- the result of the prediction is then sent back to the end device to raise an alert. This is prone to network connectivity and latency issues. We have built an end/device that is wrist-worn and has multiple Inertial Measurement Unit sensors and a heart sensor. We have developed three novel ensemble algorithms (a)Stack(A) (b) Variable weighted Ensemble Voting algorithm-B(VWE(B)), and (c) Variable weighted Ensemble Voting algorithm-C (VWE(C)). Since the ensemble algorithm is run on the end-device built around Qualcomm Snapdragons 820c, we do both feature extraction and selection to reduce data dimensionality. We have used multiple methods such as (a) Identifying features that have maximum impact (b) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) (c) Shapley’s values (d) Cross-Correlation combined with relliefF. We got an accuracy of 97% and specificity of 99%. In this paper, we present the analysis of the system with and without pruning.

Antisense oligonucleotide (ASO)-mediated exon skipping has become a valuable tool for investigating gene function and developing gene therapy. Machine learning-based computational methods such as eSkip-Finder have been developed to predict the efficacy of ASOs via exon skipping. However, these methods are computationally demanding, and the accuracy of predictions remains suboptimal. In this study, we propose a new approach to reduce computational burden and improve prediction performance by using feature selection within machine learning algorithms and ensemble learning techniques. We evaluated our approach using a dataset of experimentally validated exon skipping events, dividing it into training and testing sets. Our results demonstrate that using a 3-way voting approach with random forest, gradient boosting, and XGBoost can significantly reduce computation time to under ten seconds while improving prediction performance, as measured by R2 for both 2’-O-methyl nucleotides (2OMe) and phosphorodiamidate morpholino oligomers (PMOs). Additionally, the feature importance ranking derived from our approach is in good agreement with previously published results. Our findings suggest that our approach has the potential to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of predicting ASO efficacy via exon skipping. It could also facilitate the development of novel therapeutic strategies. This study could contribute to the ongoing efforts to improve ASO design and optimize gene therapy approaches.

Stocks portfolio is a form of investment that can be used to minimize the risk of loss. In a stock portfolio, the value at risk (VaR) can be predicted through the portfolio return. If portfolio return variance is heteroscedastic risk prediction can be done by using VaR with ARIMA-GARCH or Ensemble ARIMA-GARCH model approach. Furthermore, the accuracy of VaR is tested through backtesting test. In this study, the portfolio formed from Astra Agro Lestari Ltd (AALI) and Indofood Ltd (INDF) stocks from 10/02/2012 to 10/01/2019. The results showed that the best model is ARIMA(0,0,[3])-GARCH(1,2) with AIC of -5.604 and MSE 1.874e-07.At confidence level of 95% and 1 day holding period, the VaR of the ARIMA(0,0,[3])-GARCH(1,2) was -0.3464. Based on the backtesting test, it is proven to be very accurate to predict the value of loss risk because the value of the violation ratio (VR) is equal to 0.

Groundnut is an oil seed cash crop, that can be consumed directly by humans and animals. It is also used as an intelligence in the industrial production of butter and other products. However, Groundnut seeds can become infected with fungi, viruses, pests, physical damage, and high heat, which can negatively impact crop yield, quality, and economic value, and pose health hazards. To address these challenges, computer vision technology detects and classifies defects. This study introduced an ensemble deep learning defected classification model that combines VGG16 and InceptionV3 using seed images. To enhance model performance, collected images are preprocessed using novel techniques tailored to different image types. Preprocessing techniques are chosen based on image-quality evaluation metrics. Watershed segmentation is applied followed by detecting the region of interest in the image using YOLOv3. The image dataset is augmented and balanced using a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN). The model development involves a combination of classical and deep-based features, comparing features extracted with (HOG and GLCM) to those extracted with InceptionV3 and VGG16. The ensemble model achieves an accuracy of 96.25% with a split ratio of 10% for testing, 10% for validation, and 80% for training set. This research benefits farmers looking to improve yield, consumers of groundnut products, and researchers studying seed defects. The work provides valid insights for future researchers regarding dataset creation, augmentation, methods, and feature selection for modeling. However, the model experienced misclassifications due to the similar appearance of sample images in different classes. Future researchers should address these challenges and consider factors such as oil content and defect grading.

Machine learning models are increasingly being used in critical domains, but their complexity, lack of transparency, and poor interpretability remain problematic. Decision trees (DTs) and rule-based approaches are well-known examples of interpretable models, and numerous studies have investigated techniques for approximating tree ensembles using DTs or rule sets; however, tree ensemble approximators do not consider interpretability. These methods are known to generate three main types of rule sets: DT-based, unordered-based, and decision list-based. However, no known metric has been devised to distinguish and compare these rule sets. Therefore, the present study proposes an interpretability metric to allow comparisons of interpretability between different rule sets, such as decision list- and DT-based rule sets, and investigates the interpretability of the rules generated by the tree ensemble approximators. To provide new insights into the reasons why decision list-based and inspired classifiers do not work well for categorical datasets consisting of mainly nominal attributes, we compare objective metrics and rule sets generated by the tree ensemble approximators and the \textit{Recursive-Rule eXtraction algorithm (Re-RX) with J48graft}. The results indicated that \textit{Re-RX with J48graft} can handle categorical and numerical attributes separately, has simple rules, and achieves high interpretability, even when the number of rules is large.

This research delves into the realm of predictive modeling within artificial intelligence (AI) and introduces an innovative ensemble approach designed to enhance prognostic precision. The proposed methodology, characterized by its ebullient nature, leverages the collective wisdom of diverse predictive models, synthesizing a comprehensive and robust framework. The pursuit of parsimony are paramount, underscoring the need for efficient model architectures that balance predictive acuracy and computational efficiency. Our study meticulously explores the amalgamation of diverse algorithms, encapsulating the intrinsic complexity of real-world phenomena. We navigate the intricate landscape of feature selection, algorithmic diversity, and model combination, fostering a holistic understanding of the prognostic process. The ebullient ensemble emerges as a dynamic solution, harnessing the synergy of constituent models while mitigating the risk of overfitting. To validate the efficacy of our approach, extensive experiments are conducted on diverse datasets, spanning domains such as healthcare, finance, and natural language processing. Comparative analyses demonstrate the superior predictive performance of our ensemble model in comparison to individual algorithms and traditional ensemble methods. Additionally, we delve into interpretability aspects, elucidating the underlying mechanisms that contribute to the model's prognostic prowess. Our research advances the frontier of predictive modeling in AI, offering a nuanced and sophisticated paradigm for prognostication. The ebullient ensemble approach stands as a testament to the synergy achievable through the amalgamation of diverse predictive models, providing a pragmatic and parsimonious avenue for enhanced prognostic acuracy in artificial intelligence applications.

Road collisions are among the world’s critical issues causing many casualties, deaths, and economic losses. To deal with this scenario, precise analysis is required. In this paper, we use Machine Learning (ML) techniques to assess and predict road traffic collisions. An ensemble machine learning model with two layers was developed to analyze simulation data from the driving simulator. The first (base) layer integrates supervised learning techniques namely, k- Nearest Neighbors (k-NN) AdaBoost, Naive Bayes (NB), and Decision Trees (DT). The second layer predicts road collisions by combining the base layer outputs by employing the stacking ensemble method using logistic regression as a meta-classifier. The data for this study were imbalanced; therefore, we performed a SMOTE resampling strategy to handle the dataset imbalance. To simplify the model, the PSO algorithm was used to select the most important features in our dataset. The two-layer ensemble model proposed had the best outcomes with an accuracy of 88%, F1 score of 83%, and an AUC of 86% as compared with k-NN, DT, NB, and AdaBoost.

Heart disease is a global health concern of paramount importance, causing a significant number of fatalities and disabilities. Precise and timely diagnosis of heart disease is pivotal in pre-venting adverse outcomes and improving patient well-being, thereby creating a growing demand for intelligent approaches to predict heart disease effectively. This paper introduces an Ensemble Heuristic-Metaheuristic Feature Fusion Learning (EHMFFL) algorithm for heart disease diagnosis. Within the EHMFFL algorithm, a diverse ensemble learning model is crafted, featuring different feature subsets for each heterogeneous base learner, including support vector machine, K-nearest neighbors, logistic regression, random forest, naive bayes, decision tree, and XGBoost. The primary objective is to identify the most pertinent features for each base learner, leveraging a combined heuristic-metaheuristic approach that integrates the heuristic knowledge of Pearson correlation coefficient with the metaheuristic-driven grey wolf optimizer. The second objective is to aggregate the decision outcomes of the various base learners through ensemble learning, aimed at constructing a robust prediction model. The performance of the EHMFFL algorithm is rigorously assessed using the Cleveland and Statlog datasets yielding remarkable results with an accuracy of 91.8% and 88.9%, respectively, surpassing state-of-the-art machine learning, ensemble learning, and feature selection techniques in heart disease diagnosis. These findings underscore the potential of the EHMFFL algorithm in enhancing diagnostic accuracy for heart disease and providing valuable support to clinicians in making more informed decisions regarding patient care.

Social media platforms are increasingly enabling the propagation of content from groups related to drug use, thus posing risks for the wider population and, in particular, individuals who are amenable to drug use and drug addiction. The detection of drug use content on social media platforms is a priority for governments, technology companies, and drug law enforcement organizations. To counter this issue, various techniques have been developed to identify and promptly remove drug use content, while also blocking its creators from network access. In this paper, we introduce a manually annotated Twitter dataset, comprising 156,521 tweets published between 2008 and 2022, specifically compiled for the purpose of drug use detection. The dataset underwent annotation by several group of expert annotators who classified the tweets as either drug use or non-drug use. Exploratory data analysis was conducted to comprehend the dataset's characteristics. Various classification algorithms, including SVM, XGBoost, RF, NB, LSTM, and BERT were employed using the dataset. Among the traditional machine learning models, SVM utilizing term frequency-inverse document frequency features achieved the highest F1-Score (0.9017). However, BERT with textual features concatenated with numerical and categorical features in ensemble method surpassed the performance of traditional models, attaining F1-Score of 0.9112. To facilitate future research and enhance English online drug use classification accuracy, the dataset will be made publicly available.

Symbolic pole/zero analysis is an important step when designing an analog operational amplifier. Generally, a simplified symbolic analysis of analog circuits suffers from NP-hardness, i.e., an exponential growth of the number of symbolic terms of the transfer function with the circuit size. In this study, we present a mathematical model combined with a heuristic-metaheuristic solution method for the symbolic pole/zero simplification in operational transconductance amplifiers (OTA). At first, the circuit is symbolically solved and an improved root splitting method is applied to extract symbolic poles/zeroes from the exact expanded transfer function. Then, a hybrid algorithm based on heuristic information and a metaheuristic technique using simulated annealing is performed for the simplification of the derived symbolic pole/zero expressions. The developed method has been tested on three analog OTAs. The obtained results show the effectiveness of the proposed method to achieve accurate simplified symbolic pole/zero expressions with the least complexity.

InSAR and associated analytic methods enable relative surface deformation measurements from low Earth orbit with a potential accuracy of centimeters to millimeters. However, assessing the actual accuracy can be quite difficult. The analytic methods are complicated enough that naive analytic error propagation is infeasible, and, in many settings, InSAR practitioners lack sufficient ground truth to assess results. Phase noise due to partial decorrelation from changes in the scattering properties of the ground is a prominent source of accuracy loss. In this paper we present a method to assess the loss of precision due to this component of phase noise. The proposed method consists of generating synthetic data stacks whose statistical properties match those of the actual input SAR data stacks, and then using the synthetic data for an ensemble calculation. The spread of the results of the ensemble calculation indicates the loss of precision. We show examples of the ensemble analysis at a mining operation in South Africa, and demonstrate the ability to estimate the precision of two InSAR deformation retrieval methods on a point-by-point and epoch-by-epoch basis.

Computers have evolved over the years and as the evolution continues, we have been ushered into an era where high-speed internet has made it possible for devices in our homes, hospital, energy and industry to communicate with each other. This era is what is known as the Internet of Things (IoT). IoT has several benefits in the health, energy, transportation and agriculture sectors of a country’s economy. These enormous benefits coupled with the computational constraint of IoT devices which makes it difficult to deploy enhanced security protocols on them make IoT devices a target of cyber-attacks. One approach that has been used in traditional computing over the years to fight cyber-attacks is Intrusion Detection System (IDS). However, it is practically impossible to deploy IDS meant for traditional computers in IoT environments because of the computational constraint of these devices. In this regard, this study proposes a lightweight IDS for IoT devices using an incremental ensemble learning technique. We used Gaussian Naive Bayes and Hoeffding tree to build our incremental ensemble model. The model was then evaluated on the TON IoT dataset. Our proposed model was compared with other state-of-the-art methods proposed and evaluated using the same dataset. The experimental results show that the proposed model achieved an average accuracy of 99.98\%. We also evaluated the memory consumption of our model which showed that our model achieved a lightweight model status of 650.11KB as the highest memory consumption and 122.38KB as the lowest memory consumption.

Real-world optimization problems are often governed by one or more constraints. Over the last few decades, extensive research has been performed in Constrained Optimization Problems (COPs) fueled by advances in computational intelligence. In particular, Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) are a preferred tool for practitioners for solving these COPs within practicable time limits. We propose an ensemble of multi- method hybrid EA framework with four mutation operators, two crossover operators, multi-search [Differential Evolution (DE) & Gaining Sharing Knowledge (GSK)] optimization algorithm, and ensemble of constraint handling techniques to solve global real- world constrained optimization problem. The proposed frame- work FEPEA has an ascendancy of multiple adaptation strategies concerning the control parameters, search mechanisms, two sub-populations as well as uses knowledge sharing mechanism between junior and senior phases. The algorithm also combines the power of four popular constraint handling techniques (CHT) and uses a voting mechanism to select any particular CHT. On top of that, this algorithm also uses both linear and non- linear population size reduction in every step of the evolutionary process. We test our method on 57 real-world problems provided as part of the CEC 2020 special session & competition on real- world constrained optimization benchmark suite. Experimental results indicate that FEPEA is able to achieve state-of-the- art performance on real-world constrained global optimization when compared against other well-known real-world constrained optimizers.

The rate of technical innovation, system interconnection, and advanced communications undoubtedly boost distributed energy networks' efficiency. However, when an additional attack surface is made available, the possibility of an increase in attacks is an unavoidable result. The energy ecosystem's significant variety draws attackers with various goals, making any critical infrastructure a threat, regardless of scale. Outdated technology and other antiquated countermeasures that worked years ago cannot address the complexity of current threats. As a result, robust artificial intelligence cyber-defense solutions are more important than ever. Based on the above challenge, this paper proposes an ensemble transfer learning spiking immune system for adaptive smart grid protection. It is an innovative Artificial Immune System (AIS) that uses a swarm of Evolving Izhikevich Neural Networks (EINN) in an Ensemble architecture, which optimally integrates Transfer Learning methodologies. The effectiveness of the proposed innovative system is demonstrated experimentally in multiple complex scenarios that optimally simulate the modern energy environment. In this way, the proposed system fully automates the strategic security planning of energy networks with computational intelligence methods. It allows the complete control of the digital strategies of the potential infrastructure that frames it, thus contributing to the timely and valid decision-making during cyber-attacks.

An electrocardiograph (ECG) reflects the health of the human heart and is used to help diagnose arrhythmia and myocardial infarction(MI) in clinical practice. Early diagnosis of arrhythmia helps implement preventive measures and plays a crucial role in saving a patient's life. With the increasing demand of clinicians for ECG analysis technology, intelligent detection and diagnosis of ECG signals has become a more efficient means to assist physicians in diagnosing cardiovascular diseases. This paper introduces an ECG diagnosis approach based on an ensemble deep learning combination of CNN(convolutional neural network) and SLAP(stacked-long short term memory architecture for prediction) architecture. ECG data is denoised and further divided into single heartbeats to achieve data standardization and sample diversity. Adam optimizer and BCEwithlogitsloss multi-classification loss function were used to enhance the model effect, and the system achieved the classification effect of 99.3% average accuracy, 99.0% F1-value, and 99.2% sensitivity in MIT-BIH standard database classification. It also shows good generalization ability on the Tianchi data set.

Covid-19 has caused infections and deaths worldwide. While research in the field of Data Science has contributed good predictions of positive Covid-19 case numbers, this study's review of literature shows there is little research in the use of variants of the virus in predictions. We set out to define and evaluate novel variant features. We find that features relating to variant trends, thresholds and amino acid substitutions are especially powerful in two tasks. In the first task, predicting Covid-19 case numbers, accuracy improved from 71.53% without variant features to 82.12% with variant features. In the second task, predicting transmission severity of variants between two classes, we created a method to build some variable ensembles through selecting appropriate models that are generated with variant features. The test results showed that our ensembles are more accurate and reliable. One particular ensemble of 14 models correctly classified 90.91% of variants, outperforming other models including the popular Random Forest ensemble. In addition, as the variant features have represented more underlying information about Covid-19 pathophysiology, our ensemble methods use only a few data samples to achieve an accurate prediction. The ensemble of 14 models uses only 50 cases of each variant, an ability that could be exploited for early detection of highly infectious variants. These research findings may benefit public health professionals, policy makers, and the research community in the collective efforts to overcome this disease.

This work can be considered as a first step of designing a future competitive data-driven approach for remaining useful life prediction of aircraft engines. The proposed approach is an ensemble of serially connected extreme learning machines. The results of prediction of the first networks are scaled and fed to the next networks as an additive features to the original inputs. This feature mapping allows increasing the correlation of training inputs with their targets by holding new prior knowledge about the probable behavior of the target function. The proposed approach is evaluated under remaining useful estimation using a set of “time-varying” data retrieved from the public dataset C-MAPSS (Commercial Modular Aero Propulsion System Simulation) provided by NASA. The prediction performances are compared to basic extreme learning machine and proved the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

We investigate the stationary and dynamic properties of the celebrated Nosé-Hoover dynamics of many-body interacting Hamiltonian systems, with an emphasis on the effect of inter-particle interactions. To this end, we consider a model system with both short- and long-range interactions. The Nosé-Hoover dynamics aims to generate the canonical equilibrium distribution of a system at a desired temperature by employing a set of time-reversible, deterministic equations of motion. A signature of canonical equilibrium is a single-particle momentum distribution that is Gaussian. We find that the equilibrium properties of the system within the Nosé-Hoover dynamics coincides with that within the canonical ensemble. Moreover, starting from out-of-equilibrium initial conditions, the average kinetic energy of the system relaxes to its target value over a size-independent timescale. However, quite surprisingly, our results indicate that under the same conditions and with only long-range interactions present in the system, the momentum distribution relaxes to its Gaussian form in equilibrium over a scale that diverges with the system size. On adding short-range interactions, the relaxation is found to occur over a timescale that has a much weaker dependence on system size. This system-size dependence of the timescale vanishes when only short-range interactions are present in the system. An implication of such an ultra-slow relaxation when only long-range interactions are present in the system is that macroscopic observables other than the average kinetic energy when estimated in the Nosé-Hoover dynamics may take an unusually long time to relax to its canonical equilibrium value. Our work underlines the crucial role that interactions play in deciding the equivalence between Nosé-Hoover and canonical equilibrium.

The incorporation of renewable energy systems in the world energy system has been steadily increasing during the last years. In terms of the building sector, the usual consumers are becoming increasingly prosumers, and the trend is that communities of energy, whose households share produced electricity, will increase in number in the future. Another observed tendency is that the aggregator (the entity that manages the community) trades the net community energy in public energy markets. To accomplish economically good transactions, accurate and reliable forecasts of the day-ahead net energy community must be available. These can be obtained using an ensemble of multi-step shallow artificial neural networks, with prediction intervals obtained by the covariance algorithm. Using real data obtained by a small energy community of four houses located in the South region of Portugal, one can verify that the deterministic and probabilistic performance of the proposed approach is at least similar, typically better than using complex, deep models.

This paper introduces a novel ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) that integrates a machine-learning approach. The approach employs nonlinear variable relationships established by a deep neural network (DNN) during the analysis stage of the EAKF. This process nonlinearly projects observation increments into the state variable space. The newly developed DNN-EAKF algorithm can be applied to coupled data assimilation using coupled ocean-atmosphere models. It enhances cross-component updates in strongly coupled data assimilation (SCDA) by diminishing errors in estimating cross-component error covariance arising from insufficient ensemble members, thereby improving the SCDA analysis. This paper employs a conceptual model to conduct twin experiments, validating the DNN-EAKF’s capability to utilize cross-component observation information in SCDA effectively. The approach is anticipated to offer insights for future methodological integrations of machine learning and data assimilation and provide methods for SCDA applications in coupled general circulation models.

Determining accurate PM2.5 pollution concentrations and understanding their dynamic patterns is crucial for scientifically informed air pollution control strategies. Traditional reliance on linear correlation coefficients for ascertaining PM2.5 related factors only uncovers superficial relationships. Moreover, the invariance of conventional prediction models restricts their accuracy. To enhance the precision of PM2.5 concentration prediction, this study introduces a novel integrated model that leverages feature selection and a clustering algorithm. Comprising three components - feature selection, clustering, and integrated prediction, the model first employs the non-dominated sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-III) to identify the most impactful features affecting PM2.5 concentration within air pollutants and meteorological factors. This step offers more valuable feature data for subsequent modules. The model then adopts a two-layer clustering method (SOM+K-means) to analyze the multifaceted irregularity within the dataset. Finally, the model establishes the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) weak learner for each classification, integrating multiple weak learners using the Adaboost algorithm to obtain a comprehensive prediction model. Through feature correlation enhancement, data irregularity exploration, and model adaptability improvement, the proposed model significantly enhances the overall prediction performance. Data sourced from 12 Beijing-based monitoring sites in 2016 were utilized for an empirical study, and the model's results compared with five other predictive models. The outcomes demonstrate that the proposed model significantly heightens prediction accuracy, offering useful insights and potential for broadened application to multifactor correlation concentration prediction methodologies for other pollutants.

The diffusion coefficient--a measure of dissipation, and the entropy--a measure of fluctuation are found to be intimately correlated in many physical systems. Unlike the fluctuation dissipation theorem in linear response theory, the correlation is often strongly non-linear. To understand this complex dependence, we consider the classical Brownian diffusion in this work. Under certain rational assumption, i.e. in the bi-component fluid mixture, the mass of the Brownian particle $M$ is far greater than that of the bath molecule $m$, we can adopt the weakly couple limit. Only considering the first-order approximation of the mass ratio $m/M$, we obtain a linear motion equation in the reference frame of the observer as a Brownian particle. Based on this equivalent equation, we get the Hamiltonian at equilibrium. Finally, using canonical ensemble method, we define a new entropy that is similar to the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy. Further, we present an analytic expression of the relationship between the diffusion coefficient $D$ and the entropy $S$ in the thermal equilibrium, that is to say, $D =\frac{\hbar}{eM} \exp{[S/(k_Bd)]}$, where $d$ is the dimension of the space, $k_B$ the Boltzmann constant, $\hbar $ the reduced Planck constant and $e$ the Euler number. This kind of scaling relation has been well-known and well-tested since the similar one for single component is firstly derived by Rosenfeld with the expansion of volume ratio.

Towards the investigation and further understanding of the development and propagation of Medicanes, this study explores the forecasting capability of WRF model in case of cyclone “Cleopatra” which affected with extreme rainfall and strong winds Sardinia and Calabria, Italy, in November 2013. This cyclone was unusual in that it developed a warm core but did not fulfill its transformation into a tropical-like cyclone because its core did not expand high enough in the tropospnere. The ERA5 reanalysis dataset was dynamically downscaled from 31 km spatial horizontal resolution to 9 km using WRF model. The methodology consists of; firstly, an extensive physical parameterization schemes sensitivity test and consequently, a short-range ensemble forecasting implementation based on the highest statistical scored physics configuration. All simulation results were validated against surface observations and remote sensing products. Subsequently, the modeled cyclone trajectories are compared to satellite imagery derived from EUMETSAT-SEVIRI gridded data. The findings of the conducted analysis illustrate that ensemble average displays significant difference in performance compared to any of the deterministic runs individually, suggesting that ensemble forecasts will be beneficial in studies assessing cyclonic events in the Mediterranean region.

The research work hereby presented, emerges from the urge to answer the well-known question of how the uncertainty of intermittent renewable sources affects the performance of a microgrid and how could we deal with it. More specifically, we want to evaluate what could be the impact in performance of a microgrid intended to serve a smart-building (powered by photovoltaic panels and with battery energy storage), when the uncertainty of the photovoltaic-production forecasts is considered in the energy management process. For this, several objectives (or services) are targeted based in a two-step (double-objective) energy management framework, that combines optimization-based and rule-based algorithms. The performance is evaluated based on some particular services proposed as performance indicators. Simulations are performed using data of a study-case microgrid (Drahi-Xnovation center, Ecole Polytechnique, France). The use of quantile forecasts (obtained with an analog-ensemble method) is tested as a mean to deal with (i.e. decrease) the uncertainty of the solar PV production. The proposed energy management framework is compared with basic reference strategies and the results show the superior performance of the former in almost all the services and forecasting scenarios proposed. The contrasting nature among some of the target services is one of the main conclusions of this work, as well as the different requirements in terms of forecasts when optimizing for different services and seasons of the year. This fact highlights the usefulness of the quantile forecasting approach, as a tool to deal with the intrinsic uncertainty of PV power production

Machine learning methods used for classification can face challenges due to class imbalance, where a certain class is underrepresented. Over/under-sampling of minority/majority class observations, or model selection for ensemble methods alone, may not be effective if the class imbalance ratio is very high. To address this issue, this paper proposes a method called enhance tree ensemble (ETE) based on generating synthetic data for minority class observations in conjunction with tree selection based on their performance on the training data. The proposed method first generates minority class instances to balance the training data and then uses the idea of tree selection by leveraging out-of-bag (〖ETE〗_OOB) and sub-samples (〖ETE〗_SS) observations, respectively. The efficacy of the proposed method is assessed using twenty benchmark problems for binary classification with moderate to extreme class imbalance, comparing it against other well-known methods such as optimal tree ensemble (OTE), SMOTE random forest (〖RF〗_SMOTE), over-sampling random forest (〖RF〗_OS), under-sampling random forest (〖RF〗_US), k-nearest-neighbor (k-NN), support vector machine (SVM), tree, and artificial neural network (ANN). Performance metrics such as classification error rate and precision are used for evaluation purposes. The analyses of the study revealed that the proposed method, based on data balancing and model selection, yielded better results than the other methods.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology offers a national operational 7-day ensemble streamflow forecast service covering regions of high environmental, economic and social significance. This semi-automated service generates streamflow forecasts every morning and is seamlessly integrated into the Bureau's Hydrologic Forecasting System (HyFS). Ensemble rainfall forecasts, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Poor Man's Ensemble (PME), available in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) suite, are used to generate these streamflow forecasts. The NWP rainfall undergoes pre-processing using the Catchment Hydrologic Pre-Processer (CHyPP) before being fed into the GR4H rainfall-runoff model, which is embedded in the Short-term Water Information Forecasting Tools (SWIFT) hydrological modelling package. The simulated streamflow is then post-processed using the Error Representation and Reduction In Stages (ERRIS). We evaluated the performance of the operational rainfall and streamflow forecasts for 96 catchments using four years of operational data between January 2020 and December 2023. Performance evaluation metrics included CRPS, relative CRPS, CRPSS, and PIT-Alpha for ensemble forecasts and NSE, PCC, MAE, KGE, PBias and RMSE and three categorical metrics CSI, FAR and POD for deterministic forecasts. The skill scores CRPS, relative CRPS, CRPSS and PIT-Alpha, gradually decreased for both rainfall and streamflow as the forecast horizon increased from Day 1 to Day 7. A similar pattern emerged for NSE, KGE, PCC, MAE and RMSE as well as the categorical metrics. Forecast performance also progressively decreased with the higher streamflow regime. Most catchments showed positive performance skills, meaning the ensemble forecast outperformed climatology. Both streamflow and rainfall forecast skills varied spatially across the country – and were generally better in the high runoff generating catchments, and poorer in the drier catchments situated in the western part of the Great Dividing Range, South Australia and mid-west of Western Australia. We did not find any association between model forecast skill and the catchment area. Our findings demonstrate that the 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasting service is robust and draws great confidence from agencies that use these forecasts to support decisions around water resources management.

Curcumin, a major constituent of turmeric, has beneficial effects against several diseases. In cystic fibrosis (CF), this compound potentiates the activity of a number of cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) mutants. Despite holding promise in the treatment of CF, the curcumin binding site in CFTR and the molecular mechanism of activation of this channel are still unknown. The results of the study, based on docking and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, allow to propose that curcumin binds the closed ATP-free CFTR near the NBD1/ ICl1/ICl4 interface. The bound ligand, once approached by NBD2 during transient channel opening, lays at a multiple interdomain cross point. Thereafter, curcumin can bridge NBD1 and NBD2, and also ICL1/ICL4 and ICL2/ICL3 finally tightening the same interdomain interactions that normally uphold the active conformation in the wild type ATP-bound CFTR. The proposed binding site is compatible with biochemical observations made in previous CFTR-curcumin interaction studies. These findings provide the framework for the design of novel drugs that activate CFTR mutants characterized by defects in ATP binding and/or NBD dimerization, or even lacking NBD2.

In this study, we conducted experiments to assess the forecasting capabilities for the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the South China Sea using the ensemble-based data assimilation system (EPS-DA) by WRF-LETKF. These experiments covered forecast lead times of up to 5 days and spanned a period from 2012 to 2019, involving a total of 45 TC formation events. The evaluation involved forecast probability assessments and positional and timing error analysis. Results indicated that successful forecasting depends on lead time and initial condition quality. For TC formation from an embryo vortex to tropical depression intensity, the EPS-DA system demonstrated improved accuracy as the forecast cycle approached the actual formation time. TC centers converged toward observed locations, highlighting the potential of assimilation up to 5 days before formation. We examined statistical variations in dynamic and thermodynamic variables relevant to TC processes, offering an objective system assessment. Our study emphasized early warnings of TC development appear linked to formation-time environmental conditions, particularly strong vorticity and enhanced moisture processes.

Bootstrap resampling techinques, introduced by Efron and Rubin, can be presented in a general Bayesian framework, approximating the statistical distribution of a statistical functional φ(F), where F is a random distribution function. Efron’s and Rubin’s bootstrap procedures can be extended introducing an informative prior through the Proper Bayesian bootstrap. In this paper different bootstrap techniques are used and compared in predictive classification and regression models based on ensemble approaches, i.e. bagging models involving decision trees. Proper Bayesian bootstrap, proposed by Muliere and Secchi, is used to sample the posterior distribution over trees, introducing prior distributions on the covariates and the target variable. The results obtained are compared with respect to other competitive procedures employing different bootstrap techniques. The empirical analysis reports the results obtained on simulated and real data.

Stueckelberg-Horwitz-Piron (SHP) electrodynamics formalizes the distinction between coordinate time (measured by laboratory clocks) and chronology (temporal ordering) by defining 4D spacetime events x^μ as functions of an external evolution parameter τ. Classical spacetime events x^μ (τ) evolve as τ grows monotonically, tracing out particle worldlines dynamically and inducing the five U(1) gauge potentials through which events interact. Since Lorentz invariance imposes time reversal symmetry on x⁰ but not τ, the formalism resolves grandfather paradoxes and related problems of irreversibility. The action involves standard first order field derivatives but includes a higher order τ derivative that while preserving gauge and Lorentz invariance removes certain singularities and makes the related QFT super-renormalizable. The resulting field equations are Maxwell-like but τ-dependent and sourced by a current that represents a statistical ensemble of instantaneous events distributed along the worldline. The width λ of this distribution defines a correlation time for the interactions and a mass spectrum for the photons that carry the interaction. As λ becomes very large, the photon mass goes to zero and the field equations become τ-independent Maxwell’s equations. Maxwell theory thus emerges as an equilibrium limit of SHP, in which λ is larger than any other relevant time scale. Particles and fields are not constrained to mass shells in SHP theory, and by exchanging mass may produce pair creation/annihilation processes at the classical level. On-shell evolution with fixed particle masses is restored through a self-interaction associated with the 5D wave equation.