Day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers, and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participate in predicting the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, Fixed Weight Method (FWM) and Varying Weight Method (VWM), for selecting each hour's expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features derived from information such as past electricity price data, weather data, and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than both the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF) method and our own previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) alone do on the datasets for New York, Australian, and Spanish electricity markets.

The conformity assessment of products or a measured value with the given standards is carried out based on the global risk of producers and consumers calculation. A product may conform to specifications but be falsely rejected as non-conforming. This is about the producer's risk. If a product doesn't meet the requirements but is falsely accepted as conforming, that poses a risk to the consumer. The conventional approach to risk assessment, which yields only a single numerical value for the global risk of producers and consumers, is naturally extended, and utilized for assessing risk in measurement models with linear regression. The outcomes of the two-dimensional extension, along a moderate scale, are the parabolas with an opening upwards. Risk surfaces were obtained through three-dimensional extension over the area limited by the moderate scale and guard band axes. Four models with different ranges of tolerance intervals were used to test this innovative method of risk assessment in linear regression. The corresponding standard measurement uncertainties are determined by applying a simplified measurement model with the use of comprehensive data on the measurement performance and by determining measurement uncertainty derived from consideration of the functional relationship obtained by linear regression analysis. Models that utilize information from linear regression analysis to determine measurement uncertainty are biased towards risks at the edges of the moderate scale. Testing the model's performances with metrics related to the confusion matrix, such as the F1 score, further substantiated this assertion. The diagnostic odds ratio has been proven to be extremely effective in identifying the curve along the guard band axis, along which the global risks of producers and consumers are at their lowest.

Cervical cancer is one of the ailments that endangers the health of women all over the world and causes infertility. Fortunately, this disease can be avoided. Both the results and participation rates of the current preventative strategy remain poor. Hence, preventative or early detection methods remain challenging and open. In gynecology and computer science fields, few studies on identifying cervical cancer are based on behavior risk factor and machine learning. Moreover, various social and behavioral aspects might often make it more difficult to detect cervical cancer especially in low‑ and middle‑income countries (LMICs). Accordingly, focus on predicting the presence of cervical cancer through behavioral risk factors is the basic structure of this research. We proposed an approach to classify cervical cancer from a social-behavioral perspective using logistic regression to predict cervical cancer. We got significantly improved outcomes than the existing methods. Moreover, we used feature engineering to formulate less dimensionality as a pre-processing step and optimized parameters to be prepared for classification phase. The results proved that using the logistic regression with regularization type L1 had a promising performance. The accuracy of Logistic Regression (LR) L1 was 97.2%. Such results support the proposed work as a reliable classification predictive tool.

As argued by ‘Declaration of Concrete Environment (2010)’ of Korea and ‘Declaration of Asian Concrete Environment (2011)’ of six Asian countries, concrete as a single material has lately shown extremely large impact on environmental issues such as climate change. Assessment of environmental impact from concrete material and production has considerable importance. Concrete is a major material used in the construction industry that emits a large amount of substances with environmental impacts during its life cycle. Accordingly, technologies for the reduction in and assessment of the environmental impact of concrete from the perspective of Life Cycle Assessment must be developed. At present, the studies in relation to greenhouse gas emission from concrete are being carried out globally as a countermeasure against climate change. In this study, a sustainable concrete mix design algorithm was designed using correlation analyses, and its carbon emission and cost reduction performances were assessed. Using correlation analyses, the concrete strength, w/b and s/a ratios, and CO₂ emissions were identified as major variables of concrete mix design that influenced other variables. Also, this study aims to evaluate the CO₂ emission reduction performance of the algorithm-deduced sustainable concrete mix design, and therefore, the CO₂ emissions of the sustainable concrete mix design are compared with those of the actual concrete mix design applied to the construction of the office building A in South Korea.

(1) Background: The prediction of cervical lesions evolution is a challenge for clinicians. The prospective study aimed to determine and compare the predictive accuracy of cytology, HPV genotyping, and p16/Ki67 dual staining alone or in combination with personal risk factors for the prediction of progression, regression or persistence of cervical lesions in human papillomavirus (HPV)-infected patients; (2) Methods: This prospective study included HPV-positive patients with or without cervical lesions that underwent follow-up. Descriptive statistics and sensitivity analysis for individual or combined index tests were used for data analysis; (3) Results: The highest predictive performance for the progression of cervical lesions was achieved by a model that comprised a Pap smear suggestive of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL), the presence of 16/18 HPV strains, a positive p16/Ki67 dual staining result along with the presence of at least 3 clinical risk factors, which had a sensitivity (Se) of 74.42%, a specificity of 97.92%, an area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of 0.961, and an accuracy of 90.65%. The prediction of cervical lesions regression or persistence was modest; (4) Conclusions: Multiple testing or new biomarkers should be used to improve HPV-positive patient surveillance, especially for cervical lesion regression or persistence prediction.

Although, promotion of urbanization culture in recent decades has made inevitable development of cities in the world, however, the development can be guided in a direction that leave, to the extent possible, minimum socioeconomic and environmental impacts. For this, it is required to first forecast auto-spreading orientation of cities and suburbs in rural areas over time and then avoid shapeless growth of cities. This paper is an attempt to develop a dynamic hybrid model based on logistic regression (LR), Markov chain (MC), and cellular automata (CA) for prediction of future urban sprawl in fast-growing cities. The model was developed using 12 widely-used urban development criteria, whose significant coefficient was determined by logistic regression, and validated by relative operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The validated model was run in Guilan, a tourist province in northern Iran with a very high rate of urban development. For this, changes in the area of urban land use were detected over the period of 1989 to 2013 and then, future sprawl of the province was forecasted by the years 2025 and 2037. The analysis results revealed that the area of urban land use was increased by more than 1.7 % from 36012.5 ha in 1989 to 59754.8 ha in 2013, and the area of Caspian Hyrcanian forestland was reduced by 31628 ha. The results also predicted an alarming increase in the rate of urban development in the province by the years 2025 and 2037, during which urban land use is predicted to develop 0.9 % and 1.38 %, respectively. The development pattern is expected to be uneven and scattered, without following any particular direction. The development will occur close to the existing or newly-formed urban basements as well as around major roads and commercial areas. This development, if not controlled, will lead to the loss of 13863 ha of Hyrcanian forests and if the trend continues, 21013 ha of Hyrcanian forests and 20208 ha of Barren/open lands are expected to be destroyed by the year 2037. In general, the proposed model is an efficient tool for the support of urban planning decisions and facilitates the process of sustainable development of cities by providing decision-makers with an overview on future development of cities where the growth rate is very fast.

Notion of median in one dimension is a foundational element in nonparametric statistics. It has been extended to multi-dimensional cases both in location and in regression via notions of data depth. Regression depth (RD) and projection regression depth (PRD) represent the two most promising notions in regression. Carrizosa depth DC is another depth notion in regression. Depth induced regression medians (maximum depth estimators) serve as robust alternatives to the classical least squares estimator. The uniqueness of regression medians is indispensable in the discussion of their properties and the asymptotics (consistency and limiting distribution) of sample regression medians. Are the regression medians induced from RD, PRD, and DC unique? Answering this question is the main goal of this article. It is found that only the regression median induced from PRD possesses the desired uniqueness property. The conventional remedy measure for non-uniqueness, taking average of all medians, might yield an estimator that no longer possesses the maximum depth in both RD and DC cases. These and other findings indicate that the PRD and its induced median are highly favorable among their leading competitors.

This work compared the performance of three methods for constructing a regional ensemble prediction system (EPS) for wind speed forecasts: dynamical downscaling, breeding of growth modes (BGM), and blending method. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to downscale the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) EPS. In addition, as the BGM method needs observation data for generating scaling factors, an alternative method for generating scaling factors was proposed to eliminate dependence on observation data. One-month tests between October 1st and October 30th, 2020, were implemented to evaluate the performance of three methods in the Gansu province of China. The results demonstrate that the blending method outperforms the other two methods. Furthermore, the difference in performance is evident mainly in early forecast lead time and becomes negligible as forecast time increases.

In this work we looked for a stable and accurate procedure to perform feature selection in datasets with a much higher number of predictors than individuals, as in Genome-Wide Association Studies. Due to the instability in feature selection when many potential predictors are measured, a variable selection procedure is proposed that combines several replications of shrinkage regression models. A weighted formulation is used to define the final predictors. The procedure is applied to investigate Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) predictors associated to Alzheimer’s disease in the Alzheimer’s disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset. Two data scenarios are investigated: one considering only the set of SNPs and another with the covariates age, sex, educational level and APOE4 genotype. The SNP rs2075650 and the APOE4 genotype are given as risk factors for AD, which is in line with the literature, and other four new SNPs are pointed, opening new hypotheses for in vivo analyses. These experiments demonstrate the potential of the new method for stable feature selection.

Objective: To evaluate the variables influencing the length of stay (LoS) for COVID-19 ICU patients at Tygerberg Hospital (Cape Town) and to identify the covariates that significantly influenced it and any potential risk factors associated with LoS. Methods and Results: Poisson, negative binomial (NB), Hurdle–Poisson, and Hurdle–NB regression models were used to model the LoS in this prospective cohort study. The fitted models were compared using the Akaike information criterion (AIC), Vuong’s test criteria, and Rootograms. Based on the chosen performance criteria, the NB model provided the best fit outperforming other candidate models. The baseline LoS count was 8 days. On average, antibiotics reduced LoS by 0.74-fold (95% CI 0.62-0.89) compared to not taking antibiotics. The second wave had a significant effect on the average LoS, which decreased by 0.36-fold (95% CI 0.14-0.93) compared to the first wave. Average LoS increased by 1.01-fold (95% CI 1.01-1.02) for every one-year increase in the age of the patient and by 1.02-fold (95% CI 1.01-1.03) for every 1 unit increase in neutrophils. A 1 ng/L increase in log (TropT) levels decreased the average LoS by 0.87-fold (95% CI 0.81-0.93) similarly, a unit increase in the PF ratio decreased the average LoS by 0.998-fold (95% CI 0.997-0.999) respectively. Conclusion: The study identified common clinical characteristics associated with length of stay in ICU for COVID-19 patients, including age at admission, PF ratio, neutrophils, TropT, Wave, and antibiotic use. These results can aid in identifying risk factors for increased length of stay, assist in healthcare systems planning, and aid in evaluating different models for analysing this type of data.

COVID-19 is the most severe health crisis of the 21st century. COVID-19 presents a threat to almost all countries world-wide. The restriction of human mobility is one of the strategies used to control the transmission of COVID-19. However, it has yet to be determined how effective this restriction is in controlling the rise in COVID-19 cases, particularly in major capital cities such as Jakarta, Indonesia. Using Facebook's mobility data, our study explores the impact of restricting human mobility on COVID-19 case control in Jakarta. Our main contribution is showing how the restriction of human mobility data can give important information about how COVID-19 spreads in different places. We proposed modifying a global regression model into a local regression model by accounting for the spatial and temporal interdependence of COVID-19 transmission across space and time. We applied Bayesian hierarchical Poisson spatiotemporal models with spatially varying regression coefficients. We estimated the regression parameters using an Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation. We found that the local regression model with spatially varying regression coefficients outperforms the global regression model based on DIC, WAIC, MPL, and R2 criteria for model selection. In Jakarta's 44 districts, the impact of human mobility varies significantly. The impacts of human mobility on the log relative risk of COVID-19 range from –4.445 to 2.353. The prevention strategy involving the restriction of human mobility may be beneficial in some districts but ineffective in others. Therefore, a cost-effective strategy had to be adopted.

Caudal regression syndrome (CRS) is a congenital abnormality characterized by an incomplete development of the spinal cord (SC) and other abnormalities. We studied a 9-months old CRS child presenting: interruption of SC at L2-L3 level, sacral agenesis, lack of innervation of the inferior limbs (flaccid paraplegia) and neurogenic bladder and bowel. Given the effects of growth hormone (GH) on the proliferation, differentiation and migration of neural stem cells (NSCs), we treated him with GH and rehabilitation, trying to induce the recovery of main sequelae. GMFM-88 test score was 12.31%. After a blood analysis, GH treatment (0.3 mg/day, 5 days/week, 3 months and then 15 days without GH) and rehabilitation commenced. This protocol was followed during 5 years, being the last GH dose 1 mg/day. Blood analysis and physical exams were performed every 3 months initially and every 6 months later. Six months after commencing the treatment GMFM-88 score increased to 39.48%. Responses to sensitive stimuli appeared in most of the territories explored; 18 months later sensitive innervation was complete and the patient moved any muscle over the knees and controlled his sphincters. Three years later he walked with the help of canes, there was plantar flexion and GMFM-88 score was 78.48%. In summary, GH plus rehabilitation may be useful for innervating distal territories, below the level of the incomplete spinal cord in CRS. Most likely, GH acts on ependymal SC NSCs, as the hormone does in the neurogenic niches in the brain.

Software project estimating (SPE) is a powerful but necessary step in the production of projects for software. Software project estimating includes several components, estimating software time, software resources, software costs, and software effort estimation (SEE). SEE seeks to estimate the number of "hours-person" and "months-person" of work required for developing or managing a software program. During the initial phase of the development of software, future efforts are impossible to predict. To estimate effort, many deep learning (DL) and machine learning (ML) models were previously created. For estimate, single-model techniques and ensemble methods were investigated in this research. Ensemble methods involve a combination of multiple separate models. Bagging, boosting, and voting were the ensemble methods looked into for estimation. Datasets considered for estimation were COCOMO81, COCOMONasa I, COCOMONasa II, Albrecht, Maxwell, China, Desharnais, Desharnais_1_1, Kitchenham, Boehm, and Belady. The evaluation criteria used MAE, RAE, RMSE, RRSE, and CC. The result from previous studies is that the total size of the set of data utilized is small in predicting the effort, as the largest size of the set of data used is the China dataset containing only 499 projects. So, in this study, the dataset has been merged to increase the total size of the set of data and increase the accuracy of prediction. The results indicated that the suggested merged dataset increased effort estimation accuracy.

Multilabel learning goes beyond standard supervised learning models by associating a sample with more than one class label. Among the many techniques developed in the last decade to handle multilabel learning best approaches are those harnessing the power of ensembles and deep learners. This work proposes merging both methods by combining a set of gated recurrent units, temporal convolutional neural networks, and long short-term memory networks trained with variants of the Adam optimization approach. We examine many Adam variants, each fundamentally based on the difference between present and past gradients, with step size adjusted for each parameter. We also combine Incorporating Multiple Clustering Centers and a bootstrap-aggregated decision trees ensemble, which is shown to further boost classification performance. In addition, we provide an ablation study for assessing the performance improvement that each module of our ensemble produces. Multiple experiments on a large set of datasets representing a wide variety of multilabel tasks demonstrate the robustness of our best ensemble, which is shown to outperform the state-of-the-art. The MATLAB code for generating the best ensembles in the experimental section will be made available at https://github.com/LorisNanni.

In Taiwan, mountainous areas account for approximately two-thirds of the total area. The steep terrain and concentrated rainfall during typhoons cause landslides, which pose a considerable threat to mountain settlements. Therefore, models for analyzing rainfall-induced landslide hazards are urgently required to ensure adequate land use in mountainous areas. In this study, focusing on Pingtung County in southern Taiwan, we developed a landslide hazard index (IRL) to land use. Using FORMOSA-2 and SPOT-5 satellite images, data were collected before and after four typhoons (one in 2009 and three in 2013). The ArcGIS random tree classifier was used for interpreting satellite images to explore surface changes and disasters, which were used to analyze slope disturbances. The product of the maximum 3-h rolling rainfall intensity and effective accumulated rainfall was used as a rainfall trigger index (IRT). Considering environmental and slope disturbance factors, an index of slope environmental strength potential (ISESP) was developed through logistic regression (LR). Landslide hazard to land use was estimated using IRT and ISESP. The average coefficient of agreement (Kappa) was approximately 0.71 (medium to high accuracy); the overall accuracy of slope environmental strength potential analysis was approximately 80.4%. At a constant ISESP, IRT increased with the increasing hazard potential of rainfall-induced landslides. Furthermore, IRT and ISESP were positively correlated with landslide occurrence. When large ISESP values occur (e.g., fragile environment and high land development intensity), small IRT values may induce landslides.

Expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful mathematical tool for estimating statistical parameter when data sample contains hidden part and observed part. EM is applied to learn finite mixture model in which the whole distribution of observed variable is average sum of partial distributions. Coverage ratio of every partial distribution is specified by the probability of hidden variable. An application of mixture model is soft clustering in which cluster is modeled by hidden variable whereas each data point can be assigned to more than one cluster and degree of such assignment is represented by the probability of hidden variable. However, such probability in traditional mixture model is simplified as a parameter, which can cause loss of valuable information. Therefore, in this research I propose a so-called conditional mixture model (CMM) in which the probability of hidden variable is modeled as a full probabilistic density function (PDF) that owns individual parameter. CMM aims to extend mixture model. I also propose an application of CMM which is called adaptive regressive model (ARM). Traditional regression model is effective when data sample is scattered equally. If data points are grouped into clusters, regression model tries to learn a unified regression function which goes through all data points. Obviously, such unified function is not effective to evaluate response variable based on grouped data points. The concept “adaptive” of ARM means that ARM solves the ineffectiveness problem by selecting the best cluster of data points firstly and then evaluating response variable within such best cluster. In order words, ARM reduces estimation space of regression model so as to gain high accuracy in calculation.

Object classification is a crucial task in deep learning, which involves the identification and categorization of objects in images or videos. Although humans can easily recognize common objects, such as cars, animals, or plants, performing this task on a large scale can be time-consuming and error-prone. Therefore, automating this process using neural networks can save time and effort while achieving higher accuracy. Our study focuses on the classification step of human chromosome karyotyping, an important medical procedure that helps diagnose genetic disorders. Traditionally, this task is performed manually by expert cytologists, which is a time-consuming process that requires specialized medical skills. Therefore, automating it through deep learning can be immensely useful. To accomplish this, we implemented and adapted existing preprocessing and data augmentation techniques to prepare the chromosome images for classification. We used ResNet-50 convolutional neural networks and an ensemble approach to classify the chromosomes, obtaining state-of-the-art performance in the tested dataset.

The conventional machine learning (ML) algorithms are continuously advancing and evolving at a fast-paced by introducing the novel learning algorithms. ML models are continually improving using hybridization and ensemble techniques to empower computation, functionality, robustness, and accuracy aspects of modeling. Currently, numerous hybrid and ensemble ML models have been introduced. However, they have not been surveyed in a comprehensive manner. This paper presents the state of the art of novel ML models and their performance and application domains through a novel taxonomy.

Byers Peninsula (62°34’-62°40’S-60°54’61°13’W), 60 km2 in size, is considered one of the largest ice-free areas in Antarctica. Since 2006, the Spanish Polar Program has taken part in a large number of environmental studies involving effects of climate changes, limnology and microbiology, live cycles, but not albedo. Surface albedo is one of the key physical parameters in the surface energy budget of polar regions. Most of Antarctica is covered by ice sheets; only about 0.44% of the area is permanently ice-free. However, in maritime Antarctica, the ice-free areas, corresponding to small islands, peninsulas, and coastal beaches, account for about 3% of the territory. To incorporate the contribution of these areas into global albedo models, it is necessary to relate the soil properties of the ice-free areas to the surface albedo response. Also, mapping soil properties and albedo have and special interest in these ice-free areas. Image classification using machine learning methods trained with georeferenced soil data could be useful for mapping soil properties and albedo in multispectral optical satellite images. A shallow neural network implemented using the Keras Python module was used to define and train models of soil properties using 15 explanatory variables corresponding to bands and spectral indices of a Sentinel image and a population of 49 soil samples taken from the top 5 centimeters of the soil profile. The soil samples were analyzed in the laboratory and a spectral library in the Vis-Nir range (350-2500 nm) was created. The albedo of the samples was integrated from the ADS spectra. At the same time, a linear regression model of albedo using the soil properties as explanatory variables was performed. The R2 fit of this new model was about 0.82 and the error of estimation was 4.1. The model was extended to the entire Byers Peninsula using the ML soil property models as explanatory variables. The RMSE of the extended models increased up to 8.2. We think that the main cause of this increase (2.6 points) is related to the error propagation, phenomenon due to the use of models as explanatory variables. However, another important part of the error increase could be due, among other reasons, to the use of an image that, although corrected, is not completely free of clouds.

Developing effective trend estimators is a main method to solve the online portfolio selection problem. Although the existing portfolio strategies have demonstrated good performance through the development of various trend estimators, it is still challenging to determine in advance which estimator will yield the maximum final cumulative wealth in online portfolio selection tasks. This paper studies an online ensemble approach for online portfolio selection by leveraging the strengths of multiple trend estimators. Specifically, a return-based loss function and a cross-entropy-based loss function are first designed to evaluate the adaptiveness of different trend estimators in a financial environment. On this basis, a passive aggressive ensemble model is proposed to weigh these trend estimators within a unit simplex according to their adaptiveness. Extensive experiments are conducted on benchmark datasets from various real-world stock markets to evaluate the performance. The results show that the proposed strategy achieves the state-of-the-art performance including efficiency and cumulative return.

We propose a new ensemble classification algorithm, named Super Random Subspace Ensemble (Super RaSE), to tackle the sparse classification problem. The proposed algorithm is motivated by the Random Subspace Ensemble algorithm (RaSE). The RaSE method was shown to be a flexible framework that can be coupled with any existing base classification. However, the success of RaSE largely depends on the proper choice of the base classifier, which is unfortunately unknown to us. In this work, we show that Super RaSE avoids the need to choose a base classifier by randomly sampling a collection of classifiers together with the subspace. As a result, Super RaSE is more flexible and robust than RaSE. In addition to the vanilla Super RaSE, we also develop the iterative Super RaSE, which adaptively changes the base classifier distribution as well as the subspace distribution. We show the Super RaSE algorithm and its iterative version perform competitively for a wide range of simulated datasets and two real data examples. The new Super RaSE algorithm and its iterative version are implemented in a new version of the R package RaSEn.

In this paper, we propose methods for brain tumor detection in MRI images based on ensemble learning. We build upon prior research on ensemble methods by testing the concatenation of pre-trained models: features extracted via transfer learning are merged and segmented by classification algorithms or a stacked ensemble of those algorithms. The proposed approach achieved accuracy scores of 0.98 , outperforming a benchmark VGG-16 model. Considerations to granular computing are given in the paper as well.

In this paper, we present a relapse based demonstrating way to deal with investigate various arrangement MTC information. A commonplace use of this displaying approach incorporates three stages: first, define a model that approximates the connection between quality articulation and trial factors, with boundaries consolidated to address the exploration premium; second, utilize least-squares and assessing condition methods to gauge boundaries and their relating standard blunders; third, register test insights, P-qualities and NFD as proportions of factual criticalness. The benefits of this methodology are as per the following. To begin with, it tends to the exploration interest in a particular, precise way, and maximally uses all the information and other important data. Second, it represents both orderly and irregular varieties related with the information, and the consequences of such examination give not just quality explicit data applicable to the exploration objective, yet additionally its dependability, in this way helping agents to settle on better choices for subsequent investigations. Third, this methodology is truly adaptable, and can undoubtedly be stretched out to different sorts of MTC considers or other microarray explores by detailing various models dependent on the test plan of the investigations.

To effectively preserve marine environments and manage endangered species, it is necessary to employ efficient, precise, and scalable solutions for environmental monitoring. Ecoacoustics provides several benefits as it enables non-intrusive, prolonged sampling of environmental sounds, making it a promising tool for conducting biodiversity surveys. However, analyzing and interpreting acoustic data can be time-consuming and often demands substantial human supervision. This challenge can be addressed by harnessing contemporary methods for automated audio signal analysis, which have exhibited remarkable performance due to advancements in deep learning research. This paper introduces a research investigation into developing an automatic computerized system to detect dolphin whistles. The proposed method utilizes a fusion of various resnet50 networks integrated with data augmentation techniques. Through extensive experiments conducted on a publically available benchmark, our findings demonstrate that our ensemble yields significant performance enhancements across all evaluated metrics. The MATLAB/PyTorch source code is freely available at: https://github.com/LorisNanni/

Lower Back Pain (LBP) is a disease that needs immediate attention. Person with back pain shall go immediately to doctor for treatment. Injury, excessive works and some medical conditions are result of back pain. Back pain is common to any age of human for different reasons. Due to factors such as previous occupation and degenerative disk disease the chance of developing lower back pain increases for older people. It hampers the working condition of people common reason for seeking medical treatment. The result is absence from work and is unable to normal due to pain. It creates uncomfortable and debilitating situations. Hence, detecting this disease at an early stage will assist the medical field experts to suggest counter measures to the patients. Detection of lower back pain is implemented in this paper by applying ensemble machine learning technique. This paper proposes Stacking ensemble classifier as an automated tool that will predict lower back pain tendency of a patient. Experimental result implies that the proposed method reaches an accuracy of 76.34%, f1-score of 0.76 and MSE of 0.34.

This manuscript presents a new two-parameter unit stochastic distribution, obtained by transforming the Laplace distribution, using generalized logistic map, into a unit interval. The distribution thus obtained is named the Laplace-logistic unit (abbreviated LLU) distribution, and its basic stochastic properties are examined in detail. Also, the procedure for estimating parameters based on quantiles is provided, along with the asymptotic properties of the obtained estimates and the appropriate numerical simulation study. Finally, the application of the LLU distribution in dynamic and regression analysis of real-world data with accentuated "peaks" and "fat" tails is also discussed.

With the use of linear regression modeling, this study sought to forecast and analyze rainfall patterns in Ethiopia. The dataset included historical rainfall data as well as pertinent independent variables. The R-squared score and mean squared error (MSE) were used to assess the effectiveness of the linear regression model. The results showed that the model's ability to forecast and analyze rainfall patterns was not very good. Only around 5.3% of the variance in rainfall could be explained by the chosen independent variables, according to the R-squared score of 0.053. This low number indicated that there was little correlation between the selected variables and rainfall, and that a sizable percentage of the variation in the dependent variable was not captured by the model. The model's accuracy in forecasting rainfall was shown to be quite low by the MSE error, with significant squared discrepancies between the expected and actual amounts. These results support the notion that the linear regression model as it is now designed is not appropriate for studying or forecasting Ethiopia's rainfall patterns. Alternative modeling approaches, the inclusion of other pertinent factors, and the assurance of the availability of high-quality data that faithfully captures the intricate dynamics of rainfall in the area all require more investigation.

This study investigates the suitability of the timestamp approach algorithm for predicting blood pressure (BP) using wearable and comfortable devices, showcasing its accuracy even with low-frequency sampled signals. Developed within the SINTEC European project, the algorithm utilizes Electrocardiogram (ECG) and Photoplethysmogram (PPG) sensors, demonstrating promising results in both laboratory and hospital settings. The research emphasizes the algorithm’s potential to transform continuous and non-invasive BP monitoring through wearable technology, offering frequent measurements with minimal discomfort. While the study shows promise, further exploration is needed, focusing on optimizing machine learning coefficients for long-term monitoring applications and addressing potential changes over time. Technological improvements, including the implementation of edge computing algorithms, hold the key to enhancing BP accuracy, denoising techniques, and integrating alarm systems for future wearable solutions. This study emphasizes the adaptability of the algorithm for diverse healthcare environments, paving the way for broader applications in convenient and reliable BP monitoring.

Like traditional single label learning, multi-label learning is also faced with the problem of dimensional disaster.Feature selection is an effective technique for dimensionality reduction and learning efficiency improvement of high-dimensional data. In this paper, Logistic regression, manifold learning and sparse regularization were combined to construct a joint framework for multi-label feature selection (LMFS). Firstly, the sparsity of the eigenweight matrix is constrained by the $L_{2,1}$-norm. Secondly, the feature manifold and label manifold can constrain the feature weight matrix to make it fit the data information and label information better. An iterative updating algorithm is designed and the convergence of the algorithm is proved.Finally, the LMFS algorithm is compared with DRMFS, SCLS and other algorithms on eight classical multi-label data sets. The experimental results show the effectiveness of LMFS algorithm.

In this project, we use a statistical multiple regression to study the impact of eight various predictors (relative compactness, surface area, wall area, roof area, overall height, orientation, glazing area, glazing area distribution) to estimate the cooling load energy efficiency of residential buildings. We try to analyze and visualize the effect of each predictor with each of the response variable using different classical statistical analysis tools used in describing linear models, in such a way so that we can find out the most strongly related predictor variables. Before starting all of this, we use the idea of model selection by stepwise regression technique and compare the AIC of these models and identified a better model between all of them. Then, we compare a classical linear regression approach by simulations on 768 diverse residential buildings show that we can predict CL with low mean absolute error. By using ANOVA we determine variation in the different residuals. Also, we use non constant variance test to verify it. Furthermore, we check leverage and influence points as well as outliers as well as determined cook distance for influential points. By taking box cox transformation and weights, we also introduce WLS technique to fit the model for better results and did all type of important analysis to understand the energy efficiency. Finally, we show 5-fold cross validation to verify our model.

The study combines two critical aspects of climate research in Nigeria. The first segment focuses on improving predictive performance of global circulation models (GCMs) employing ensemble techniques. ANN ensemble displayed significant improvement in the accuracy of climate projections, particularly in high-altitude geographic areas where traditional models exhibit limitations. Performance evaluation metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) demonstrate the effectiveness of the ANN multimodal ensemble. Building on the improved climate modelling, the second segment delves into a spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall and mean temperature patterns under climate change in Nigeria. By considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the study utilizes dynamically downscaled GCMs obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The Mann-Kendall test reveals significant spatiotemporal variations in climate trends across the country. The warming trend is particularly pronounced in the northern regions, with RCP8.5 showing more severe impacts compared to RCP4.5. This integrated approach not only highlights the importance of multimodal ensembles in climate modelling but also provides valuable insights into the spatial and temporal patterns of climate change to inform effective adaptation and mitigation strategies for Nigeria.

In this paper, solar irradiance and wind speed forecasts were performed considering time horizons ranging from 10 min to 60 min, under a 10 min time-step. Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and wind speed were computed using four forecasting models (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbours, Support Vector Regression, and Elastic Net) to compare their performance against two alternative dynamic ensemble methods (windowing and arbitrating). Forecasting models and dynamic forecasting ensembles were implemented in Python for performance evaluation. The performance comparison between the prediction models and the dynamic ensemble methods was carried out by evaluating the RMSE, MAE, R² and MAPE, to evaluate whether the dynamic ensemble forecasting method obtained greater. According to the results obtained windowing dynamic ensemble method was the most efficient among the tested. For the wind speed data, by varying its parameter λ (from 1 to 100), a variable performance profile was obtained, where from λ =1 to λ = 74, windowing proved to be the most efficient, reaching maximum efficiency for λ = 19. Windowing was the best method for the GHI analysis, reaching its best performance for λ = 1. The efficiency gain using windowing was 0.56% when using the wind speed model and 1.96% for GHI.

High-dimensional measurement error data are becoming more prevalent across various fields. Research on measurement error regression models has gained increasing attention due to the risk of drawing inaccurate conclusions if measurement errors are ignored. When the dimension p is larger than the sample size n, it is challenging to develop statistical inference methods for high-dimensional measurement error regression models due to the existence of bias, nonconvexity of objective function, high computational cost and many other difficulties. Over the past few years, some works have overcome the aforementioned difficulties and proposed several statistical inference methods. This paper mainly reviews the current development on estimation, hypothesis testing and variable screening methods for high-dimensional measurement error regression models and shows the theoretical results of these methods with some directions worthy of exploring for future research.

Predicting copper price is essential for making decisions that can affect companies and governments dependent on the copper mining industry. Copper prices follow a time series that is non-linear, non-stationary, and which have periods that change as a result of potential growth, cyclical fluctuation and errors. Sometimes the trend and cyclical components together are referred to as a trend-cycle. In order to make predictions, it is necessary to consider the different characteristics of trend-cycle. In this paper, we study a copper price prediction method using Support Vector Regression. This work explores the potential of the Support Vector Regression with external recurrences to make predictions at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 days into the future in the copper closing price at the London Metal Exchanges. The best model for each forecast interval is performed using a grid search and balanced cross-validation. In experiments on real data-sets, our results obtained indicate that the parameters (C, ε, γ) of the model Support Vector Regression do not differ between the different prediction intervals. Additionally, the amount of preceding values used to make the estimates does not vary according to the predicted interval. Results show that the support vector regression model has a lower prediction error and is more robust. Our results show that the presented model is able to predict copper price volatilities near reality, being the RMSE equal or less than the 2.2% for prediction periods of 5 and 10 days.

Regression models form the core of the discipline of econometrics. One of the basic assumptions of classical linear regression model is that the values of the explanatory variables are fixed in repeated sampling. However, in most of the real life cases, particularly in economics the assumption of fixed regressors is not always tenable. Under a non-experimental or uncontrolled environment, the dependent variable is often under the influence of explanatory variables that are stochastic in nature. There is a huge literature related to stochastic regressors in various aspects. In this paper, a historical perspective on some of the works related to stochastic regressor is being tried to pen down based on literature search.

Communication is a key method of expressing one's thoughts and opinions. Amongst many modalities, speech and writing are the most powerful and common forms of human communication. Analysing what and how people think has inherently been an interesting and progressive research domain. This includes bimodal sentiment analysis which is an emerging area in natural language processing (NLP) and has received a great deal of attention in recent years in a variety of areas including social opinion mining, health care, banking, and so on. At present, there are limited studies on bimodal conversational sentiment analysis as it proves to be a challenging area given the complex nature of the way humans express sentiment cues across various modalities. To address this gap, a comparison of the performance of multiple data modality models has been conducted on the MELD dataset, a widely-used dataset for benchmarking sentiment analysis within the research community. Our work then demonstrates the results of combining acoustic and linguistic representations. Lastly, our proposed neural network-based ensemble learning technique is employed over six transformer and deep learning-based models, achieving a State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) accuracy.

There are uncertainties associated with every phase of the stock assessment process, ranging from the collection of data, assessment model choice, model assumptions and interpretation of risk to the implementation of management advice. The dynamics of fish populations are complex, and our incomplete understanding of those dynamics (and limited observations of important mechanisms) necessitate that models are simpler than nature. The aim is for the model to capture enough of the dynamics to accurately estimate trends and abundance and to provide advice to managers about sustainable harvests. The \textit{status quo} approach to assessment modelling has been to identify the `best' model, based on diagnostics and model selection criteria, and to generate advice from that model, mostly ignoring advice from other model configurations regardless of how closely they performed relative to the chosen model. We review the suitability of the ensemble modelling paradigm to more fully capture uncertainty in stock assessment model building and the provision of advice. We recommend further research to evaluate potential gains in modelling performance and advice from the use of ensemble modelling, while also suggesting revisions to the formal process for reviewing models and providing advice to management bodies.

Software fault prediction is the very consequent research topic for software quality assurance. Data driven approaches provide robust mechanisms to deal with software fault prediction. However, the prediction performance of the model highly depends on the quality of dataset. Many software datasets suffers from the problem of class imbalance. In this regard, under-sampling is a popular data pre-processing method in dealing with class imbalance problem, Easy Ensemble (EE) present a robust approach to achieve a high classification rate and address the biasness towards majority class samples. However, imbalance class is not the only issue that harms performance of classifiers. Some noisy examples and irrelevant features may additionally reduce the rate of predictive accuracy of the classifier. In this paper, we proposed two-stage data pre-processing which incorporates feature selection and a new Rough set Easy Ensemble scheme. In feature selection stage, we eliminate the irrelevant features by feature ranking algorithm. In the second stage of a new Rough set Easy Ensemble by incorporating Rough K nearest neighbor rule filter (RK) afore executing Easy Ensemble (EE), named RKEE for short. RK can remove noisy examples from both minority and majority class. Experimental evaluation on real-world software projects, such as NASA and Eclipse dataset, is performed in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. Furthermore, this paper comprehensively investigates the influencing factor in our approach. Such as, the impact of Rough set theory on noise-filter, the relationship between model performance and imbalance ratio etc. comprehensive experiments indicate that the proposed approach shows outstanding performance with significance in terms of area-under-the-curve (AUC).

Byers Peninsula is considered one of the largest ice-free areas in Maritime Antarctica. Since 2006, the Spanish Polar Program has taken part in a large number of environmental studies involving effects of climate changes in lives cycles, limnology and microbiology. Soils from maritime Antarctica are generally weakly developed and have chemical, physical and morphological characteristics strongly influenced by the parent material. However, biological activity during the short Antarctic summer promotes intense transference of nutrients and organic matter in areas occupied by different species of birds and marine mammals. To mapping and monitoring those areas with high biological occupation, could be very useful to have models of edaphic properties prepared from satellite images. In this approach, Deep Learning and Linear Regression models of soil properties and spectral indexes as explicative variables were performed. We training models of soil properties closely related to biological activity such as Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) and the iron fraction associated with organic matter (Fe). We tested the best approach to model the spatial distribution of DOC, Fe and pH by training models of Linear Regression and Deep Learning over Sentinel2 and WorldView2 images. The most robust models were used to track possible areas with ornithogenic soils as well as areas of the Byers Peninsula that could support the highest biological development.

This paper uses the numerical results of surveys sent to Huelva’s (Andalusia, Spain) households to determine the degree of knowledge they have about the urban water cycle, needs, values, and attitudes regarding water in an intermediary city with low water stress. In previous research, we achieved three different households’ clusters. The first one grouped households with high knowledge of the integral water cycle and a positive attitude to smart devices at home. The second cluster described households with low knowledge of the integral water cycle and high sensitivity to price. The third one showed average knowledge and predisposition to have a closer relationship with the water company. This paper continues with this research line, applying Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to determine which hierarchy of variables/factors/ independent components obtained from the surveys are the decisive ones to predict the range of household water consumption in Huelva. Positive attitudes towards improved cleaning habits for personal or household purposes are the highest hierarchy component to predict the water consumption range. Second in the hierarchy, the variable Knowledge Global Score about the integral urban water cycle, associated with water literacy, also contributes to predicting the water consumption range. Together with the three clusters obtained previously, these results will allow us to design water demand management strategies (WDM) fit for purpose that enable Huelva’s households to use water more efficiently.

This work evaluates the surface water quality in terms of physico-chemical parameters of the Brahmani River, Odisha using statistical analysis involving the calculation of correlation coefficient and regression equation. Besides this, the work also highlights and draws attention towards the “Water Quality Index” in a simplified format which may be used at large and could represent the reliable picture of water quality. Surface water quality data is taken from OSPCB of various location i.e. Panposh D/S, Rourkela D/S, Rengali, Talcher U/S, Kamalanga D/S, Bhuban, Pattamundai and was assessed for summer, monsoon, winter for the years 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. Average of values, minimum of values and maximum of values of water quality parameters were obtained seasonally over the above mentioned years. Besides this, the standard deviation for the water quality parameters was also obtained for water quality parameters namely pH, Temperature, DO, TDS, Alkalinity, EC, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, K+, F-, Cl-, NO3-, SO42- and PO42-. Seasonal changes in various physical and chemical parameters were analysed.The values obtained were compared with the guideline values for drinking water by Bureau of Indian Standard (BIS). A systematic correlation and regression study is carried out for three seasons, showed linear relationship among different water quality parameters. This provides an easy and rapid method of monitoring water quality. Highly significant (0.8< r <1.0), moderately significant (0.6< r <0.8) and significant (0.5< r <0.6) correlations between the parameters have been worked out. High correlation coefficient has been observed between TDS,EC-Na+, Ca2+, Cl-, SO42- ; Na+- Cl-. From the collected quantities, certain parameters were selected to derive WQI for the variations in water quality of each designated sampling site. WQI of Brahmani River ranged from 36.7 to 44.1 which falls in the range of good quality of water.Panposh D/S and Rourkela D/S showed poor water quality in summer and winter season. It is shown that WQI may be a useful tool for assessing water quality and predicting trend of variation in water quality at differentlocations in the Brahmani River.

There is high prevalence of hypertension and is rapidly increasing around the world, despite the intervention programme implemented, this study aimed at estimating the prevalence rate, test of association between hypertension and risk factors and model hypertension rate. Data used was obtained from the health record of Federal Medical Centre, Keffi from January 2016 – January 2019. Ordinal logistic regression model was used; Model Fitting Information, Goodness-of-Fit, Pseudo R-Square and Test of Parallel Lines are fitted to the data sets to test the accuracy and correctness of the model. The results indicated that the overall prevalence of hypertension rate is high at 36.4%, among the adult population, body mass index and gender are statistically significant, and Age is not significant in the study. Individuals that are overweight are more likely to be hypertensive compare to other weights. At age 40 – 49 years which have the highest rate of 26.5% and the odd ratio is 0.75 compared to others. One year increase in age 30 – 39, the cumulative odd of being hypertensive is 0.91 while other independent variables are held constant. The odd ratio of female being hypertensive is 0.85, therefore the females are more likely to be hypertensive with 54.4% compared to the males at 45.6% . There is no presence of multicolinearity among the variables and Logit models were formulated to calculate probabilities of the various possible outcomes.

We present a new penalized method for estimation in sparse logistic regression models with group structure. Group sparsity suggests us to consider the Group Lasso penalty. Being different from penalized log-likelihood estimation, our method can be viewed as a penalized weighted score function method. Under some mild conditions, we provide non-asymptotic oracle inequalities promoting group sparsity of predictors. A modified block coordinate descent algorithm based on a weighted score function is also employed. The net advantage of our algorithm over the existing Group Lasso-type procedures is that the tuning parameter can be pre-specified. The simulations show that this algorithm is considerably faster and more stable than competing methods. Finally, we illustrate our methodology with two real data sets.

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD)-based simulation has been the traditional way to model complex industrial systems and processes. One very large and complex industrial system that has benefited from CFD-based simulations is the steel blast furnace. The problem with the CFD-based simulation approach is that it tends to be very slow to generate data. The CFD-only approach may not be fast enough for use in real-time decision-making. To address this issue, in this work, the authors propose the use of machine learning techniques to train and test models based on data generated via CFD simulation. Regression models based on neural networks are compared to tree boosting models. In particular, several areas (tuyere, raceway, and shaft) of the blast furnace are modeled using these approaches. The results of the model training and testing are presented and discussed. The obtained R2 metrics are, in general, very high. The results look promising and may help to improve the efficiency of operator and process engineer decision-making when running a blast furnace.

Training supervised machine learning models requires labeled examples. A judicious choice of examples is helpful when there is a significant cost associated with assigning labels. This article improves upon a promising extant method – Batch-mode Expected Model Change Maximization (B-EMCM) method – for selecting examples to be labeled for regression problems. Specifically, it develops and evaluates alternate strategies for adaptively selecting batch size in B-EMCM. By determining the cumulative error that occurs from the estimation of the stochastic gradient descent, a stop criteria for each iteration of the batch can be specified to ensure that selected candidates are the most beneficial to model learning. This new methodology is compared to B-EMCM via mean absolute error and root mean square error over ten iterations benchmarked against machine learning data sets. Using multiple data sets and metrics across all methods, one variation of AB-EMCM, the max bound of the accumulated error (AB-EMCM Max), showed the best results for an adaptive batch approach. It achieved better root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) than the other adaptive and non-adaptive batch methods while reaching the result in nearly the same number of iterations as the non-adaptive batch methods.

Neither tumor growth nor regression is truly spontaneous, but both may under special circumstances be driven by similar events. We describe a sequence of processes that typically leads to tumor progression but may on occasion inadvertently result in regression. A possible procedure for reducing tumor mass through a controlled intervention is also outlined.

Financial fraud poses a severe threat to the integrity of corporate financial statements and market efficiency. While auditors play a crucial role in detecting and preventing such fraud, the unique characteristics of this domain, including class imbalance, high misclassification costs, and am-biguous attributes, pose significant challenges. Traditional classification algorithms may not be optimally suited for this task. This paper proposes a novel stacking ensemble learning approach to enhanced detecting of Financial Statement Scam. By combining the strengths of multiple base learners, including Random Forest, XGBoost, and Gradient Boosting Decision Trees, our model leverages their diverse predictions to improve overall performance. A Logistic Regression me-ta-learner is employed to integrate the outputs of the base learners, capturing their collective wisdom while mitigating individual weaknesses. Extensive experimentation using a real-world dataset shown the superiority of our approach, achieving remarkable recall, precision, accuracy, and area under the curve metrics. The proposed model outperforms individual base learners, under-scoring the efficacy of ensemble learning in tackling the intricate problem of financial fraud detection. This research contributes to the creation of substantial and robust fraud detection systems, fostering trust and transparency in financial markets.

In the era of digital advancements, the escalation of credit card fraud necessitates the development of robust and efficient fraud detection systems. This paper delves into the application of machine learning models, specifically focusing on ensemble methods, to enhance credit card fraud detection. Through an extensive review of existing literature, we identified limitations in current fraud detection technologies, including issues like data imbalance, concept drift, false positives/negatives, limited generalisability, and challenges in real-time processing. To address some of these shortcomings, we propose a novel ensemble model that integrates a Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RF), Bagging, and Boosting classifiers. This ensemble model tackles the dataset imbalance problem associated with most credit card datasets by implementing under-sampling and the Synthetic Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) on some machine learning algorithms. The evaluation of the model utilises a dataset comprising transaction records from European credit card holders, providing a realistic scenario for assessment. The methodology of the proposed model encompasses data pre-processing, feature engineering, model selection, and evaluation, with Google Colab computational capabilities facilitating efficient model training and testing. Comparative analysis between the proposed ensemble model, traditional machine learning methods, and individual classifiers reveals the superior performance of the ensemble in mitigating challenges associated with credit card fraud detection. Across accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score metrics, the ensemble outperforms existing models. This paper underscores the efficacy of ensemble methods as a valuable tool in the battle against fraudulent transactions. The findings presented lay the groundwork for future advancements in the development of more resilient and adaptive fraud detection systems, crucial as credit card fraud techniques continue to evolve.

Due to the recent trend of unmanned economy, retail stores have gradually reduced their service and cashier manpower. The retail product recognition becomes one of key issues for unmanned shopping. Although the success of deep neural networks has made object recognition feasible in a variety of applications, it still struggles to perform well on a large number of classes of retail products. In this paper, we propose an improved ensemble learning-based approach for retail product recognition. In the proposed approach, the object classification network is first improved through feature extraction and block attention. An ensemble model is then built by integrating multiple network models and using loss selection as model weights. In the experiments, the feasibility of our ensemble learning-based approach has been evaluated through many production items. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach compared with previous retail product recognition methods.

Many quantum devices signals are proportional to the number of the participating atoms that take part in the detection devices. Among these are optical magnetometers, atomic clocks, and atoms interferometers. One way to enhance the signal to noise ratio is to introduce atoms entanglement that increases the signal in a super-radiant like effect. An initial novel experiment to test the realization of atoms correlation is described here. A Cs optical magnetometer is used as a tool to test the operation of a cell-in-cavity laser and its characteristics. A vapor cell is inserted in-to an elongated external cavity of the pump laser in Littrow configuration. Higher atom polarization and reduced laser linewidth are obtained leading to better magnetometer sensitivity and signal-to-noise ratio. The Larmor frequency changes of the Free Induction Decay of optically pumped Cs atomic polarization in ambient earth magnetic field at room temperature is measured. Temporal changes in the magnetic field of less than 10 pT/Hz are measured. The first order dependence of the magnetic field on temperature and temperature gradients is eliminated, important in many practical applications. Single and gradiometric magnetometer con-figurations are presented.

Energy demand forecasting is a fundamental aspect of modern energy management. It impacts resource planning, economic stability, environmental sustainability, and energy security. This importance is making it critical for countries worldwide, particularly in cases like Türkiye, where the energy dependency ratio is notably high. The goal of this study is to propose ensemble machine learning methods such as boosting, bagging, blending, and stacking with hyperparameter tuning and k-fold cross-validation, and investigate the application of these methods for predicting Türkiye's energy demand. This study utilizes population, GDP per capita, imports and exports as input parameters based on historical data from 1979 to 2021 in Türkiye. Eleven combinations of all predictor variables were analyzed, and the best one was selected. It was observed that a very high correlation exists among population, GDP, imports, exports, and energy demand. In the first phase, the preliminary performance was investigated of 19 different machine learning algorithms using 5-fold cross-validation and measured their performance using five different metrics: MSE, RMSE, MAE, R-squared, and MAPE. Secondly, ensemble models were constructed by utilizing individual machine learning algorithms, and the performance of these ensemble models was compared with both each other and the best-performing individual machine learning algorithm. The analysis of the results revealed that placing Ridge as the meta-learner and using ET, RF and Ridge as the base learners in the stacking ensemble model produced superior results compared to the other models across performance metrics. It is anticipated that the findings of this research can be applied globally and prove valuable for energy policy planning in any country. The results obtained not only highlight the accuracy and effectiveness of our predictive model but also underscore the broader implications of this study within the framework of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

This paper presents a study of an automated system for identifying planktic foraminifera at the species level. The system uses a combination of deep learning methods, specifically Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), to analyze digital images of foraminifera taken at different illumination angles. The dataset is composed of 1437 groups of sixteen grayscale images, one group for each foraminifer, that are then converted to RGB images with various processing methods. These RGB images are fed into a set of CNNs, organized in an Ensemble Learning (EL) environment. The ensemble is built by training different networks using different approaches for creating the RGB images. The study finds that an ensemble of CNN models trained on different RGB images improves the system's performance compared to other state-of-the-art approaches. The proposed system was also found to outperform human experts in classification accuracy.

Talbot effect is a self-imaging or lensless imaging phenomenon of a periodic grating illuminated by a collimated light beam at regular distances from the grating. Research on the Talbot effect has recently made significant strides thanks to the quick development of optical superlattices. The emergence of various applications of this effect in fields such as optics, acoustics, X-ray, plasmonics, and information processing has led to the increasing importance of obtaining a Talbot carpet with the use of different structures. In this paper, we investigate the Talbot effect that originates from the tunneling effect between an ensemble of vertically coupled cylindrical quantum dots (QDs). The Talbot carpet can be manipulated by changing the parameters of the QD system. In the current paper, two modified Pöschl-Teller potentials were used to model the QDs ensemble. The exciton’s lifetime and tunneling time’s dependence on the first QD’s potential half-width is found for a fixed value of the external electric field. The nonlinear changes in the refractive index and absorption spectrum dependent on the tunneling effect are obtained. Afterward, the Talbot carpet formation is investigated, particularly the dependences of the formed periodic wavefront’s visibility on medium length, coupling field’s strength, and tunneling parameter. Finally, we have observed the intensity distribution of the diffraction field at Talbot half-distance.

Ransomware is one of the most dangerous types of malware, which is frequently intended to spread through a network to damage the designated client by encrypting the client’s vulnerable data. Conventional signature-based ransomware detection technique falls behind because it can only detect known anomalies. When it comes to new and non-familiar ransomware traditional system unveils huge shortcomings. For detecting unknown patterns and sorts of new ransomware families,behavior-based anomaly detection approaches are likely to be the most efficient approach. In the wake of this alarming condition, this paper presents an ensemble classification model consisting of three widely used machine learning techniques that include Decision Tree (DT), RandomForest (RF), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN). To achieve the best outcome ensemble soft voting and hard voting techniques are used while classifying ransomware families based on attack attributes. Performance analysis is done by comparing our proposed ensemble models with standalone models on behavioral attributes based ransomware dataset..

The relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a popular diagnostic tool in forecast verification, with the area under the ROC curve (AUC) used as a verification metric measuring the discrimination ability of a forecast. Along with calibration, discrimination is deemed as a fundamental probabilistic forecast attribute. In particular, in ensemble forecast verification, AUC provides a basis for the comparison of potential predictive skill of competing forecasts. While this approach is straightforward when dealing with forecasts of common events (e.g. probability of precipitation), the AUC interpretation can turn out to be oversimplistic or misleading when focusing on rare events (e.g. precipitation exceeding some warning criterion). How should we interpret AUC of ensemble forecasts when focusing on rare events? How can changes in the way probability forecasts are derived from the ensemble forecast affect AUC results? How can we detect a genuine improvement in terms of predictive skill? Based on verification experiments, a critical eye is cast on the AUC interpretation to answer these questions. As well as the traditional trapezoidal approximation and the well-known bi-normal fitting model, we discuss a new approach which embraces the concept of imprecise probabilities and relies on the subdivision of the lowest ensemble probability category.

While the use of crime data has been widely advocated in the literature, its availability is often limited to large urban cities and isolated databases tend not to allow for spatial comparisons. This paper presents an efficient machine learning framework capable of predicting spatial crime occurrences, without using past crime as a predictor, and at a relatively high resolution: the U.S. Census Block Group level. The proposed framework is based on an in-depth multidisciplinary literature review allowing the selection of 188 best-fit crime predictors from socio-economic, demographic, spatial, and environmental data. Such data are published periodically for the entire United States. The selection of the appropriate predictive model was made through a comparative study of different machine learning families of algorithms, including generalized linear models, deep learning, and ensemble learning. The gradient boosting model was found to yield the most accurate predictions for violent crimes, property crimes, motor vehicle thefts, vandalism, and the total count of crimes. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets of crimes reported in 11 U.S. cities demonstrated that the proposed framework achieves an accuracy of 73 and 77% when predicting property crimes and violent crimes, respectively.

This paper investigates the relationship between public debt and economic growth in the context of a panel kink regression with latent group structures. The proposed model allows us to explore the heterogeneous threshold effects of public debt on economic growth based on unknown group patterns. We propose a least squares estimator and demonstrate the consistency of estimating group structures. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimator is evaluated by simulations. Our findings reveal that the nonlinear relationship between public debt and economic growth is characterized by a heterogeneous threshold level, which varies among different groups, and highlight that the mixed results found in previous studies may stem from the assumption of a homogeneous threshold effect.

Automated medical diagnosis is one of the important machine learning applications in the domain of healthcare. In this regard, most of the approaches primarily focus on optimizing the accuracy of classification models. In this research, we argue that unlike general-purpose classification problems, medical applications, such as chronic kidney disease (CKD) diagnosis, require special treatment. In the case of CKD, apart from model performance, other factors such as the cost of data acquisition may also be taken into account to enhance the applicability of the automated diagnosis system. In this research, we have proposed two techniques for cost-sensitive feature ranking. An ensemble of decision tree models is employed in both the techniques for computing the worth of a feature in the CKD dataset. An automatic threshold selection heuristic is also introduced which is based on the intersection of features’ worth and their accumulated cost. A set of experiments are conducted to evaluate the efficacy of the proposed techniques on both tree-based and non-tree based classification models. The proposed approaches are also evaluated against several comparative techniques. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the proposed techniques select around 1/4^th of the original CKD features while reducing the cost by a factor of 7.42 of the original feature set. Based on the extensive experimentation it is concluded that the proposed techniques employing feature-cost interaction heuristic tend to select feature subsets that are both useful and cost-effective.

Establishing an accurate mathematical model is the foundation of simulating the motion of marine vehicles and structures, and it is the basis of modeling-based control design. System identification from observed input-output data is a practical and powerful method. However, for modeling objects with different characteristics and known information, a single modeling framework can hardly meet the requirements of model establishment. Moreover, there are some challenges in system identification, such as parameter drift and overfitting. In this work, three robust methods are proposed for generating ocean hydrodynamic models based on Bayesian regression. Two Bayesian techniques, semi-conjugate linear regression and noisy input Gaussian process regression, are used for parametric and nonparametric gray-box modeling and black-box modeling. The experimental free-running tests of the KVLCC2 ship model and a multi-freedom wave energy converter (WEC) are used to validate the proposed Bayesian models. The results demonstrate that the proposed schemes for system identification of the ship and WEC have good generalization ability and robustness. Finally, the developed modeling methods are evaluated considering the aspects required conditions, operating characteristics and prediction accuracy.

Building energy demand impacts a myriad of interconnected economic, societal, and environmental aspects. As a result, Buildings Energy Models (BEM) play an important role in the process of urban design and planning. While previous studies have investigated the effects of building interventions on energy efficiency, their applicability may be limited due to the BEM’s high computational complexity. This limits their ability to systematically study important aspects of energy demand on a large scale. The development of Machine Learning Models (MLM) allows to design the required detailed analysis and solutions, while reducing the computational burden, making MLM attractive for urban designers. The capability of MLM to generalize well for multiple contexts (in our case, multiple buildings) is a crucial contributor to their applicability. However, the validation process in a wider context is often overlooked, therefore its generalization capabilities are not quantified. In this paper, we present a framework to train and validate a surrogate model derived from a physics-based BEM. Our method employs a Multiple Linear Regression model to predict Energy Use Intensity (EUI) for office buildings in Singapore using 36 input parameters (covariates), based on a training dataset of 23,000 samples. Model validation is performed by comparing the results of the Surrogate Model (SM) to a widely used BEM for a sample of 120 buildings. Our results indicate that the SM has an accuracy of NRMSE of 13%, NMBE of −3.56%, and R2 of 0.92, which suggests it can effectively and accurately predict building EUI. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis, which indicates that the parameters associated with internal loads and internal space usage are the most influential. Additionally, we present a reduced order model trained with only the 11 most influential parameters, which exhibits negligible loss in accuracy compared to the full SM while providing reduced complexity. Finally, we demonstrate an application of our SM to evaluate energy efficiency under uncertainty scenarios. The analytically derived results indicate a potential reduction of EUI of offices in Singapore from 227kWh/m2 to 99kWh/m2 by altering the building parameters that were identified as most influential.

Machine learning approaches are currently used to understand or model complex physical systems. In general, a substantial number of samples must be collected to create a model with reliable results. However, collecting numerous data is often relatively time-consuming or expensive. Moreover, the problems of industrial interest tend to be more and more complex and depending on a high number of parameters. High dimensional problems intrinsically involve the need of large data amount through the curse of dimensionality. That is why, new approaches based on smart sampling techniques are investigated to minimize the number of samples to be given to train the model, such as Active Learning methods. Here, we propose a technique based on a combination of Fisher information matrix and of Sparse Proper Generalized Decomposition that enables the definition of a new Active Learning informativeness criterion in high dimensions. We provide examples proving the performances of this technique on a theoretical 5D polynomial function and on an industrial crash simulation application. The results prove that the proposed strategy over-perform the usual ones.

Although data acquisition is a very usual technique, there are several aspects not always considered, as synchronization of acquired measures and evaluation of the errors that derive from this fact. The paper hereby aims to point this thing out, by mathematical determination of the necessary correction and implementing the software meant to evaluate the performances of the acquisition system. As an example, a three-phased acquisition system has been developed in order to monitor the currents and voltages on the three phases. Also other measures have been calculated, such as power and phase. The components on each phase don’t have to be fully identified because a whole system calibration can be made in the first stage. Calibration consists in finding the weighting coefficients for each quantity. The implemented solution for three-phased measures data acquisition starts from the hypothesis of a sampling frequency that respects Shannon theorem. The distance between two samples is small enough to consider a linear evolution between two moments for the same measure. Errors that affect the above mentioned, due to the different moments of time when samples are acquired, are analyzed and brought to the minimum value.

Background: In the functional data analysis (FDA), the hybrid or mixed data are scalar and functional datasets. The semi-functional partial linear regression model (SFPLR) is one of the first semiparametric models for the scalar response with hybrid covariates. Various extensions of this model are explored and summarized. Methods: Two first research articles, including “semi-functional partial linear regression model”, and “Partial functional linear regression” have more than 300 citations in Google Scholar. Finally, only 106 articles remained according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria such as 1) including the published articles in the ISI journals and excluding 2) non-English and 3) preprints, slides, and conference papers. We use the PRISMA standard for systematic review. Results: The articles are categorized into the following main topics: estimation procedures, confidence regions, time series, and panel data, Bayesian, spatial, robust, testing, quantile regression, varying Coefficient Models, Variable Selection, Single-index model, Measurement error, Multiple Functions, Missing values, Rank Method and Others. There are different applications and datasets such as the Tecator dataset, air quality, electricity consumption, and Neuroimaging, among others. Conclusions: SFPLR is one of the most famous regression modeling methods for hybrid data that has a lot of extensions among other models.

In this brief communication, we propose the concept that capillary regression may represent a primary pathogenic process underlying COVID-19 infection, particularly in the serious and life-threatening manifestations of the disease. We suggest that the marked elevations of pro-inflammatory mediators that are observed in these seriously ill patients may directly induce capillary regression and endothelial cell (EC) loss. Recent autopsy studies are demonstrating EC loss leading to widespread microthrombi and associated tissue damage. Recent work has indicated that interleukin-1 beta (IL-1β), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNFα), and thrombin, individually and in combination, can potently cause capillary tube regression in experimental models in vitro and in vivo. Other pro-inflammatory mediators including interferon gamma (IFNγ), interleukin-4 (IL-4), and interleukin-13 (IL-13) were also shown to be pro-regressive and could be relevant mediators in COVID-19 patients. Interestingly, combinations of pharmacologic agents were identified that reduced capillary regression and protected capillary tube networks against these pro-inflammatory mediators. Such an approach might be an important therapeutic option going forward to treat key disease states where capillary regression plays a major underlying pathogenic role. Finally, if capillary regression is occurring in response to these pro-inflammatory mediators during COVID-19 infection, we suggest that combinations of blocking agents directed to these key pro-regressive mediators might be necessary to appropriately treat patients.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has released reports indicating that heart disorders hold the unfortunate distinction of being the primary cause of death worldwide. Shockingly, an astonishing estimated 17.9 million lives are claimed by heart diseases annually, accounting for an alarming 31% of all global deaths. With all the flaws in the clinical situation, it is frequently challenging to assess the severity of cardiac disease and forecast its course of progression due to heterogeneity and complex interplay of factors. Therefore, early heart disease detection is essential for effective therapy. To address these challenges, Machine Learning (ML) boosting algorithms play a pivotal role as the main components of predictive analytics required to do this. The main objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive comparative framework to predict heart diseases using state-of-the-art machine learning with boosting techniques such as Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Catboost, XGboost, Light GBM, and Adaboost. To evaluate the performance of the models, a large heart disorders dataset is used from the UCI machine learning repository, comprised of 26 feature-based numerical and categorical attributes with 8763 samples from all over the globe. The Experimental results reveal that AdaBoost attained the highest accuracy of 95% and outperforms other algorithms concerning various performance measures like precision= 0.98, recall= 0.95, specificity= 0.95, f1-score=0.01, Negative predicted value= 0.83, False positive rate= 0.04, False negative rate= 0.04 and False Development rate= 0.01.

Deepfakes are manipulated or altered images, or video, that are created using deep learning models with high levels of photorealism. The two popular methods of producing a deepfake are based on either convolutional neural networks (CNN), or autoencoders. Deepfakes created using CNN comparatively show higher qualities of realism, yet oftentimes leave artifacts and distortions in the generated media that can be detected using machine learning and deep learning algorithms. In recent years, there has been an influx of periocular image and video data because of the increase usage of face masks. By wearing masks, much of what is used for facial recognition is hidden, leaving only the periocular region visible to an observer. This loss of vital information leads to easier misidentification of media, allowing deepfakes to less likely be identified as fake. In this work, feature extraction methods, such as Scale-Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT), Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG), and CNN, are used to train an ensemble deep learning model to detect deepfakes in videos on a frame-by-frame level based on the periocular region. Our proposed model is able to distinguish original and manipulated images with accuracies around 98.9 percent, which is an improvement to previous works by combining SIFT and HOG for deepfake detection in convolutional neural networks.

Increasingly measured data in the context of smart cities can be used to develop new and innovative business models to increase efficiency and the value of life. A time-series classification algorithm can support to automatize many different processes such as forecasting services. In order to ensure data security and privacy, Federated Learning trains a global model collaboratively on multiple clients. Having different data-distributions and data-quantities across participating clients, neural networks suffer from slow convergence and overfitting. Based on different data-distributions, data-quantities and number of clients, we develop and evaluate different data-clustering strategies to update global model weights in comparison to the state of the art. We use public time-series data, generate various synthetic datasets and train a Relational-Regularized Autoencoder for classification purposes. Our results show an improvement of model performance concerning generalization.

Ensembles of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) represent the geographic ranges of pathogen vectors by combining alternative analytical approaches and merging information on vector occurrences with more extensive environmental data. Biased collection data impact SDMs, regardless of the target species but no studies have compared the differences in the distributions predicted by the ensemble models when different sampling frameworks are used for the same species. We compared Ensemble SDMs for two important Ixodid tick vectors, Amblyomma americanum and Ixodes scapularis in mainland Florida, USA, when inputs were either convenience samples of ticks, or collections obtained using the standard protocols promulgated by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Ensemble SDMs for the convenience samples and standard surveys showed only a slight agreement (Kappa = 0.060, A. americanum; 0.053, I. scapularis). Convenience sample SDMs indicated A. americanum and I. scapularis should be absent from 34.5% and 30.9% of the state where standard surveys predicted the highest likelihood of occurrence of the respective vectors. Ensemble models from standard surveys predicted 81.4% and 72.5% (A. americanum and I. scapularis) of convenience sample sites. Omission errors by standard survey SDMs, of the convenience collections, frequently were associated with adjacency to at least one SDM or errors in geocoding algorithms that failed to correctly locate convenience samples. These geocoding errors emphasize commonly overlooked needs to explicitly evaluate and improve data quality for vector survey data used in spatial models.

Capability assessment plays a crucial role in the demonstration and construction of equipment. To improve the accuracy and stability of capability assessment, we study the neural network learning algorithms in the field of capability assessment and index sensitivity. Aiming at the problem of over-fitting and parameter optimization in neural network learning, the paper proposes an improved machine learning algorithm—the Ensemble Learning Based on Policy Optimization Neural Networks (ELPONN) algorithm with the policy optimization and ensemble learning. This algorithm presents optimized neural network learning algorithm through different strategies evolution, and builds an ensemble learning model of multi-intelligent algorithms to assessment the capability and analyze the sensitivity of the indexes. Through the assessment of capabilities, the algorithm effectively avoids parameter optimization from entering the minimum point in performance to improve the accuracy of equipment capability assessment, which is significantly better than previous neural network assessment methods. The experimental results show that the mean relative error is 4.10%, which is better than BP, GABP, and early stopping. The ELPONN algorithm has better accuracy and stability performance, and meets the requirements of capability assessment.

Tail-biting convolutional codes extend the classical zero-termination convolutional codes: Both encoding schemes force the equality of start and end states, but under the tail-biting each state is a valid termination. This paper proposes a machine-learning approach to improve the state-of-the-art decoding of tail-biting codes, focusing on the widely employed short length regime as in the LTE standard. This standard also includes a CRC code. First, we parameterize the circular Viterbi algorithm, a baseline decoder that exploits the circular nature of the underlying trellis. An ensemble combines multiple such weighted decoders, each decoder specializes in decoding words from a specific region of the channel words' distribution. A region corresponds to a subset of termination states; the ensemble covers the entire states space. A non-learnable gating satisfies two goals: it filters easily decoded words and mitigates the overhead of executing multiple weighted decoders. The CRC criterion is employed to choose only a subset of experts for decoding purpose. Our method achieves FER improvement of up to 0.75dB over the CVA in the waterfall region for multiple code lengths, adding negligible computational complexity compared to the circular Viterbi algorithm in high SNRs.

High PM10 concentrations are still a significant problem in many parts of the world. In many countries, including Poland, 50μg/m3 is the permissible threshold for a daily averaged PM10 concentration. The number of people affected by this threshold’s exceedance is challenging to estimate and requires high-resolution concentration maps. This paper presents an application of random forests for downscaling regional model air quality results. As policymakers and other end users are eager to receive a detailed resolution PM10 concentration maps, we propose a technique which utilizes the results of regional CTM (GEM-AQ, with 2.5km resolution) and local Gaussian plume model. As a result, we receive a detailed, 250-meter resolution PM10 distribution, which resembles the complex emission pattern in a foothill area in southern Poland. The random forest results are highly consistent with the GEM-AQ and observed concentration. We also discuss different strategies of data training random forest - using additional features and selecting target variables.

Recently, methods to detect DoS and spoofing attacks that occur on in-vehicle networks using CAN Protocol are being studied through deep learning models such as CNN, RNN, and LSTM. These studies have produced significant results in the field of In-Vehicle Network attack detection using deep learning models. In addition, significant results are being achieved through research on applying time series-based deep learning models such as LSTM to detect DoS attacks and replay attacks occurring in in-drone networks by expanding them to drones using the UAVCAN protocol. In this paper, we conducted an experiment to detect in-drone network attacks through non-time series analysis using machine learning models and deep learning models, and through appropriate learning for each attack type, it can also be analyzed through non-time series analysis. The results showed that it was possible to detect attacks.

The lack of a generalizable machine learning model for predicting the safety of food for 1 human consumption is a significant challenge for policymakers and responsible authorities. This 2 study provides a step-by-step guide to predict the results of seafood product import inspections, 3 focusing on identifying and understanding the critical factors that influence these results. By compar- 4 ing the performances of an ensemble of machine learning models, this study combines the strengths 5 of multiple algorithms to improve the predictive accuracy and gain insights into the key factors 6 impacting them. The ensemble model based on the soft voting technique achieves superior perfor- 7 mance to that based on the hard voting technique in terms of the recall and area under the curve 8 (AUC) scores. The study discovered that various characteristics, such as the exporting country ratio, 9 major product category, overseas manufacturer ratio, importer ratio, and seasonal variation, had a 10 substantial influence on the models’ decisions. This research guide for predicting seafood product 11 import inspection results could pave the path for other items to follow.

Falls, especially those left unattended, are fatal for the elderly. Several efforts have been made to use the Internet of Things and Machine Learning algorithms to detect falls. All such systems have issues such as (a) sensor placement on the torso and thigh which will be uncomfortable for the elderly. (b) Predictions made on the cloud- the result of the prediction is then sent back to the end device to raise an alert. This is prone to network connectivity and latency issues. We have built an end/device that is wrist-worn and has multiple Inertial Measurement Unit sensors and a heart sensor. We have developed three novel ensemble algorithms (a)Stack(A) (b) Variable weighted Ensemble Voting algorithm-B(VWE(B)), and (c) Variable weighted Ensemble Voting algorithm-C (VWE(C)). Since the ensemble algorithm is run on the end-device built around Qualcomm Snapdragons 820c, we do both feature extraction and selection to reduce data dimensionality. We have used multiple methods such as (a) Identifying features that have maximum impact (b) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) (c) Shapley’s values (d) Cross-Correlation combined with relliefF. We got an accuracy of 97% and specificity of 99%. In this paper, we present the analysis of the system with and without pruning.

Antisense oligonucleotide (ASO)-mediated exon skipping has become a valuable tool for investigating gene function and developing gene therapy. Machine learning-based computational methods such as eSkip-Finder have been developed to predict the efficacy of ASOs via exon skipping. However, these methods are computationally demanding, and the accuracy of predictions remains suboptimal. In this study, we propose a new approach to reduce computational burden and improve prediction performance by using feature selection within machine learning algorithms and ensemble learning techniques. We evaluated our approach using a dataset of experimentally validated exon skipping events, dividing it into training and testing sets. Our results demonstrate that using a 3-way voting approach with random forest, gradient boosting, and XGBoost can significantly reduce computation time to under ten seconds while improving prediction performance, as measured by R2 for both 2’-O-methyl nucleotides (2OMe) and phosphorodiamidate morpholino oligomers (PMOs). Additionally, the feature importance ranking derived from our approach is in good agreement with previously published results. Our findings suggest that our approach has the potential to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of predicting ASO efficacy via exon skipping. It could also facilitate the development of novel therapeutic strategies. This study could contribute to the ongoing efforts to improve ASO design and optimize gene therapy approaches.

Stocks portfolio is a form of investment that can be used to minimize the risk of loss. In a stock portfolio, the value at risk (VaR) can be predicted through the portfolio return. If portfolio return variance is heteroscedastic risk prediction can be done by using VaR with ARIMA-GARCH or Ensemble ARIMA-GARCH model approach. Furthermore, the accuracy of VaR is tested through backtesting test. In this study, the portfolio formed from Astra Agro Lestari Ltd (AALI) and Indofood Ltd (INDF) stocks from 10/02/2012 to 10/01/2019. The results showed that the best model is ARIMA(0,0,[3])-GARCH(1,2) with AIC of -5.604 and MSE 1.874e-07.At confidence level of 95% and 1 day holding period, the VaR of the ARIMA(0,0,[3])-GARCH(1,2) was -0.3464. Based on the backtesting test, it is proven to be very accurate to predict the value of loss risk because the value of the violation ratio (VR) is equal to 0.

Machine learning models are increasingly being used in critical domains, but their complexity, lack of transparency, and poor interpretability remain problematic. Decision trees (DTs) and rule-based approaches are well-known examples of interpretable models, and numerous studies have investigated techniques for approximating tree ensembles using DTs or rule sets; however, tree ensemble approximators do not consider interpretability. These methods are known to generate three main types of rule sets: DT-based, unordered-based, and decision list-based. However, no known metric has been devised to distinguish and compare these rule sets. Therefore, the present study proposes an interpretability metric to allow comparisons of interpretability between different rule sets, such as decision list- and DT-based rule sets, and investigates the interpretability of the rules generated by the tree ensemble approximators. To provide new insights into the reasons why decision list-based and inspired classifiers do not work well for categorical datasets consisting of mainly nominal attributes, we compare objective metrics and rule sets generated by the tree ensemble approximators and the \textit{Recursive-Rule eXtraction algorithm (Re-RX) with J48graft}. The results indicated that \textit{Re-RX with J48graft} can handle categorical and numerical attributes separately, has simple rules, and achieves high interpretability, even when the number of rules is large.

This research delves into the realm of predictive modeling within artificial intelligence (AI) and introduces an innovative ensemble approach designed to enhance prognostic precision. The proposed methodology, characterized by its ebullient nature, leverages the collective wisdom of diverse predictive models, synthesizing a comprehensive and robust framework. The pursuit of parsimony are paramount, underscoring the need for efficient model architectures that balance predictive acuracy and computational efficiency. Our study meticulously explores the amalgamation of diverse algorithms, encapsulating the intrinsic complexity of real-world phenomena. We navigate the intricate landscape of feature selection, algorithmic diversity, and model combination, fostering a holistic understanding of the prognostic process. The ebullient ensemble emerges as a dynamic solution, harnessing the synergy of constituent models while mitigating the risk of overfitting. To validate the efficacy of our approach, extensive experiments are conducted on diverse datasets, spanning domains such as healthcare, finance, and natural language processing. Comparative analyses demonstrate the superior predictive performance of our ensemble model in comparison to individual algorithms and traditional ensemble methods. Additionally, we delve into interpretability aspects, elucidating the underlying mechanisms that contribute to the model's prognostic prowess. Our research advances the frontier of predictive modeling in AI, offering a nuanced and sophisticated paradigm for prognostication. The ebullient ensemble approach stands as a testament to the synergy achievable through the amalgamation of diverse predictive models, providing a pragmatic and parsimonious avenue for enhanced prognostic acuracy in artificial intelligence applications.

Road collisions are among the world’s critical issues causing many casualties, deaths, and economic losses. To deal with this scenario, precise analysis is required. In this paper, we use Machine Learning (ML) techniques to assess and predict road traffic collisions. An ensemble machine learning model with two layers was developed to analyze simulation data from the driving simulator. The first (base) layer integrates supervised learning techniques namely, k- Nearest Neighbors (k-NN) AdaBoost, Naive Bayes (NB), and Decision Trees (DT). The second layer predicts road collisions by combining the base layer outputs by employing the stacking ensemble method using logistic regression as a meta-classifier. The data for this study were imbalanced; therefore, we performed a SMOTE resampling strategy to handle the dataset imbalance. To simplify the model, the PSO algorithm was used to select the most important features in our dataset. The two-layer ensemble model proposed had the best outcomes with an accuracy of 88%, F1 score of 83%, and an AUC of 86% as compared with k-NN, DT, NB, and AdaBoost.

Heart disease is a global health concern of paramount importance, causing a significant number of fatalities and disabilities. Precise and timely diagnosis of heart disease is pivotal in pre-venting adverse outcomes and improving patient well-being, thereby creating a growing demand for intelligent approaches to predict heart disease effectively. This paper introduces an Ensemble Heuristic-Metaheuristic Feature Fusion Learning (EHMFFL) algorithm for heart disease diagnosis. Within the EHMFFL algorithm, a diverse ensemble learning model is crafted, featuring different feature subsets for each heterogeneous base learner, including support vector machine, K-nearest neighbors, logistic regression, random forest, naive bayes, decision tree, and XGBoost. The primary objective is to identify the most pertinent features for each base learner, leveraging a combined heuristic-metaheuristic approach that integrates the heuristic knowledge of Pearson correlation coefficient with the metaheuristic-driven grey wolf optimizer. The second objective is to aggregate the decision outcomes of the various base learners through ensemble learning, aimed at constructing a robust prediction model. The performance of the EHMFFL algorithm is rigorously assessed using the Cleveland and Statlog datasets yielding remarkable results with an accuracy of 91.8% and 88.9%, respectively, surpassing state-of-the-art machine learning, ensemble learning, and feature selection techniques in heart disease diagnosis. These findings underscore the potential of the EHMFFL algorithm in enhancing diagnostic accuracy for heart disease and providing valuable support to clinicians in making more informed decisions regarding patient care.

Social media platforms are increasingly enabling the propagation of content from groups related to drug use, thus posing risks for the wider population and, in particular, individuals who are amenable to drug use and drug addiction. The detection of drug use content on social media platforms is a priority for governments, technology companies, and drug law enforcement organizations. To counter this issue, various techniques have been developed to identify and promptly remove drug use content, while also blocking its creators from network access. In this paper, we introduce a manually annotated Twitter dataset, comprising 156,521 tweets published between 2008 and 2022, specifically compiled for the purpose of drug use detection. The dataset underwent annotation by several group of expert annotators who classified the tweets as either drug use or non-drug use. Exploratory data analysis was conducted to comprehend the dataset's characteristics. Various classification algorithms, including SVM, XGBoost, RF, NB, LSTM, and BERT were employed using the dataset. Among the traditional machine learning models, SVM utilizing term frequency-inverse document frequency features achieved the highest F1-Score (0.9017). However, BERT with textual features concatenated with numerical and categorical features in ensemble method surpassed the performance of traditional models, attaining F1-Score of 0.9112. To facilitate future research and enhance English online drug use classification accuracy, the dataset will be made publicly available.

Symbolic pole/zero analysis is an important step when designing an analog operational amplifier. Generally, a simplified symbolic analysis of analog circuits suffers from NP-hardness, i.e., an exponential growth of the number of symbolic terms of the transfer function with the circuit size. In this study, we present a mathematical model combined with a heuristic-metaheuristic solution method for the symbolic pole/zero simplification in operational transconductance amplifiers (OTA). At first, the circuit is symbolically solved and an improved root splitting method is applied to extract symbolic poles/zeroes from the exact expanded transfer function. Then, a hybrid algorithm based on heuristic information and a metaheuristic technique using simulated annealing is performed for the simplification of the derived symbolic pole/zero expressions. The developed method has been tested on three analog OTAs. The obtained results show the effectiveness of the proposed method to achieve accurate simplified symbolic pole/zero expressions with the least complexity.

InSAR and associated analytic methods enable relative surface deformation measurements from low Earth orbit with a potential accuracy of centimeters to millimeters. However, assessing the actual accuracy can be quite difficult. The analytic methods are complicated enough that naive analytic error propagation is infeasible, and, in many settings, InSAR practitioners lack sufficient ground truth to assess results. Phase noise due to partial decorrelation from changes in the scattering properties of the ground is a prominent source of accuracy loss. In this paper we present a method to assess the loss of precision due to this component of phase noise. The proposed method consists of generating synthetic data stacks whose statistical properties match those of the actual input SAR data stacks, and then using the synthetic data for an ensemble calculation. The spread of the results of the ensemble calculation indicates the loss of precision. We show examples of the ensemble analysis at a mining operation in South Africa, and demonstrate the ability to estimate the precision of two InSAR deformation retrieval methods on a point-by-point and epoch-by-epoch basis.

Computers have evolved over the years and as the evolution continues, we have been ushered into an era where high-speed internet has made it possible for devices in our homes, hospital, energy and industry to communicate with each other. This era is what is known as the Internet of Things (IoT). IoT has several benefits in the health, energy, transportation and agriculture sectors of a country’s economy. These enormous benefits coupled with the computational constraint of IoT devices which makes it difficult to deploy enhanced security protocols on them make IoT devices a target of cyber-attacks. One approach that has been used in traditional computing over the years to fight cyber-attacks is Intrusion Detection System (IDS). However, it is practically impossible to deploy IDS meant for traditional computers in IoT environments because of the computational constraint of these devices. In this regard, this study proposes a lightweight IDS for IoT devices using an incremental ensemble learning technique. We used Gaussian Naive Bayes and Hoeffding tree to build our incremental ensemble model. The model was then evaluated on the TON IoT dataset. Our proposed model was compared with other state-of-the-art methods proposed and evaluated using the same dataset. The experimental results show that the proposed model achieved an average accuracy of 99.98\%. We also evaluated the memory consumption of our model which showed that our model achieved a lightweight model status of 650.11KB as the highest memory consumption and 122.38KB as the lowest memory consumption.

Real-world optimization problems are often governed by one or more constraints. Over the last few decades, extensive research has been performed in Constrained Optimization Problems (COPs) fueled by advances in computational intelligence. In particular, Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) are a preferred tool for practitioners for solving these COPs within practicable time limits. We propose an ensemble of multi- method hybrid EA framework with four mutation operators, two crossover operators, multi-search [Differential Evolution (DE) & Gaining Sharing Knowledge (GSK)] optimization algorithm, and ensemble of constraint handling techniques to solve global real- world constrained optimization problem. The proposed frame- work FEPEA has an ascendancy of multiple adaptation strategies concerning the control parameters, search mechanisms, two sub-populations as well as uses knowledge sharing mechanism between junior and senior phases. The algorithm also combines the power of four popular constraint handling techniques (CHT) and uses a voting mechanism to select any particular CHT. On top of that, this algorithm also uses both linear and non- linear population size reduction in every step of the evolutionary process. We test our method on 57 real-world problems provided as part of the CEC 2020 special session & competition on real- world constrained optimization benchmark suite. Experimental results indicate that FEPEA is able to achieve state-of-the- art performance on real-world constrained global optimization when compared against other well-known real-world constrained optimizers.

The rate of technical innovation, system interconnection, and advanced communications undoubtedly boost distributed energy networks' efficiency. However, when an additional attack surface is made available, the possibility of an increase in attacks is an unavoidable result. The energy ecosystem's significant variety draws attackers with various goals, making any critical infrastructure a threat, regardless of scale. Outdated technology and other antiquated countermeasures that worked years ago cannot address the complexity of current threats. As a result, robust artificial intelligence cyber-defense solutions are more important than ever. Based on the above challenge, this paper proposes an ensemble transfer learning spiking immune system for adaptive smart grid protection. It is an innovative Artificial Immune System (AIS) that uses a swarm of Evolving Izhikevich Neural Networks (EINN) in an Ensemble architecture, which optimally integrates Transfer Learning methodologies. The effectiveness of the proposed innovative system is demonstrated experimentally in multiple complex scenarios that optimally simulate the modern energy environment. In this way, the proposed system fully automates the strategic security planning of energy networks with computational intelligence methods. It allows the complete control of the digital strategies of the potential infrastructure that frames it, thus contributing to the timely and valid decision-making during cyber-attacks.

An electrocardiograph (ECG) reflects the health of the human heart and is used to help diagnose arrhythmia and myocardial infarction(MI) in clinical practice. Early diagnosis of arrhythmia helps implement preventive measures and plays a crucial role in saving a patient's life. With the increasing demand of clinicians for ECG analysis technology, intelligent detection and diagnosis of ECG signals has become a more efficient means to assist physicians in diagnosing cardiovascular diseases. This paper introduces an ECG diagnosis approach based on an ensemble deep learning combination of CNN(convolutional neural network) and SLAP(stacked-long short term memory architecture for prediction) architecture. ECG data is denoised and further divided into single heartbeats to achieve data standardization and sample diversity. Adam optimizer and BCEwithlogitsloss multi-classification loss function were used to enhance the model effect, and the system achieved the classification effect of 99.3% average accuracy, 99.0% F1-value, and 99.2% sensitivity in MIT-BIH standard database classification. It also shows good generalization ability on the Tianchi data set.

Covid-19 has caused infections and deaths worldwide. While research in the field of Data Science has contributed good predictions of positive Covid-19 case numbers, this study's review of literature shows there is little research in the use of variants of the virus in predictions. We set out to define and evaluate novel variant features. We find that features relating to variant trends, thresholds and amino acid substitutions are especially powerful in two tasks. In the first task, predicting Covid-19 case numbers, accuracy improved from 71.53% without variant features to 82.12% with variant features. In the second task, predicting transmission severity of variants between two classes, we created a method to build some variable ensembles through selecting appropriate models that are generated with variant features. The test results showed that our ensembles are more accurate and reliable. One particular ensemble of 14 models correctly classified 90.91% of variants, outperforming other models including the popular Random Forest ensemble. In addition, as the variant features have represented more underlying information about Covid-19 pathophysiology, our ensemble methods use only a few data samples to achieve an accurate prediction. The ensemble of 14 models uses only 50 cases of each variant, an ability that could be exploited for early detection of highly infectious variants. These research findings may benefit public health professionals, policy makers, and the research community in the collective efforts to overcome this disease.

This work can be considered as a first step of designing a future competitive data-driven approach for remaining useful life prediction of aircraft engines. The proposed approach is an ensemble of serially connected extreme learning machines. The results of prediction of the first networks are scaled and fed to the next networks as an additive features to the original inputs. This feature mapping allows increasing the correlation of training inputs with their targets by holding new prior knowledge about the probable behavior of the target function. The proposed approach is evaluated under remaining useful estimation using a set of “time-varying” data retrieved from the public dataset C-MAPSS (Commercial Modular Aero Propulsion System Simulation) provided by NASA. The prediction performances are compared to basic extreme learning machine and proved the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

We investigate the stationary and dynamic properties of the celebrated Nosé-Hoover dynamics of many-body interacting Hamiltonian systems, with an emphasis on the effect of inter-particle interactions. To this end, we consider a model system with both short- and long-range interactions. The Nosé-Hoover dynamics aims to generate the canonical equilibrium distribution of a system at a desired temperature by employing a set of time-reversible, deterministic equations of motion. A signature of canonical equilibrium is a single-particle momentum distribution that is Gaussian. We find that the equilibrium properties of the system within the Nosé-Hoover dynamics coincides with that within the canonical ensemble. Moreover, starting from out-of-equilibrium initial conditions, the average kinetic energy of the system relaxes to its target value over a size-independent timescale. However, quite surprisingly, our results indicate that under the same conditions and with only long-range interactions present in the system, the momentum distribution relaxes to its Gaussian form in equilibrium over a scale that diverges with the system size. On adding short-range interactions, the relaxation is found to occur over a timescale that has a much weaker dependence on system size. This system-size dependence of the timescale vanishes when only short-range interactions are present in the system. An implication of such an ultra-slow relaxation when only long-range interactions are present in the system is that macroscopic observables other than the average kinetic energy when estimated in the Nosé-Hoover dynamics may take an unusually long time to relax to its canonical equilibrium value. Our work underlines the crucial role that interactions play in deciding the equivalence between Nosé-Hoover and canonical equilibrium.

We introduce NodeFlow, a flexible framework for probabilistic regression on tabular data that combines Neural Oblivious Decision Ensemble (NODE) and Conditional Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNF). It offers improved modeling capabilities for arbitrary probabilistic distributions, addressing the limitations of traditional parametric approaches. In NodeFlow, the NODE captures complex relationships in tabular data through a tree-like structure, while the conditional CNF utilizes the NODE’s output space as a conditioning factor. The training process of NodeFlow employs standard gradient-based learning, facilitating end-to-end optimization of the NODEs and CNF-based density estimation. This approach ensures outstanding performance, ease of implementation, and scalability, making NodeFlow an appealing choice for practitioners and researchers. Comprehensive assessments on benchmark datasets underscore NodeFlow’s efficacy, revealing its achievement of state-of-the-art outcomes in multivariate probabilistic regression setup and its strong performance in univariate regression tasks. Furthermore, ablation studies are conducted to justify the design choices of NodeFlow. In conclusion, NodeFlow’s end-to-end training process and strong performance make it a compelling solution for practitioners and researchers. Additionally, it opens new avenues for research and application in the field of probabilistic regression on tabular data.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have successfully revealed many disease-associated genetic variants. For a case-control study, the adequate power of an association test can be achieved with a large sample size, although genotyping large samples is expensive. A cost‐effective strategy to boost power is to integrate external control samples with publicly available genotyped data. However, the naïve integration of external controls may inflate the type I error rates if ignoring the systematic differences (batch effect) between studies, such as the differences in sequencing platforms, genotype calling procedures, population stratification, and so forth. To account for the batch effect, we propose an approach by integrating External Controls into the Association Test by Regression Calibration (iECAT-RC) in case-control association studies. Extensive simulation studies show that iECAT-RC not only can control type I error rates but also can boost statistical power in all models. We also apply iECAT-RC to the UK Biobank data for M72 Fibroblastic disorders by considering genotype calling as the batch effect. Four SNPs associated with Fibroblastic disorders have been detected by iECAT-RC and the other two comparison methods. However, our method has a higher probability of identifying these significant SNPs in the scenario of an unbalanced case-control association study.

The paper deals with applying Artificial Intelligence techniques to examine CHIRP-recorded data in sand and sandstone sea-bottom sites. The provided analysis of the state of the art portrays that actual time series or spectrum backscattered data from a point on the sea bottom were rarely used as the features for machine learning models. The results of the examination indicate that types of sea bottom can be quantitatively characterized by applying logistic regression models to either the backscatter time series of a frequency-modulated signal or the spectrum of that backscatter. The examination accuracy reached 90% for the time series and 94% for the spectra. The application of spectral data as features for more advanced machine learning algorithms, and the advantages of its combination with other types of data have great potential for future research and the enhancement of remote marine soil classification.

Missing observations constitute one of the most important issues in data analysis in applied research studies. The magnitude and their structure impact parameters estimation in the modeling with important consequences for decision-making. This study aims to evaluate the efficiency of imputation methods combined with the backpropagation algorithm in a nonlinear regression context. The evaluation is conducted through a simulation study including sample sizes (50, 100, 200, 300 and 400) with different missing data rates (10, 20, 30 40 and 50%) and three missingness mechanisms (MCAR, MAR and MNAR). Four imputation methods (Last Observation Carried Forward, Random Forest, Amelia and MICE) were used to impute datasets before making prediction with backpropagation. 3-MLP model was used by varying the activation functions (Logistic-Linear, Logistic-Exponential, TanH-Linear and TanH-Exponentiel), the number of nodes in the hidden layer (3 - 15) and the learning rate (20 - 70%). Analysis of the performance criteria (R2, r and RMSE) of the network revealed good performances when it is trained with TanH-Linear functions, 11 nodes in the hidden layer and a learning rate of 50%. MICE and Random Forest were the most appropriate for data imputation. These methods can support up to 50% of missing rate with an optimal sample size of 200.

Most existing flexible count regression models allow only approximate inference. This work proposes a new framework to provide an exact and flexible alternative for modeling and simulating count data with various types of dispersion (equi-, under- and overdispersion). The new method, referred as “balanced discretization”, consists in discretizing continuous probability distributions while preserving expectations. It is easy to generate pseudo random variates from the resulting balanced discrete distribution since it has a simple stochastic representation in terms of the continuous distribution. For illustrative purposes, we have developed the family of balanced discrete gamma distributions which can model equi-, under- and overdispersed count data. This family of count distributions is appropriate for building flexible count regressionmodels because the expectation of the distribution has a simple expression in terms of the parameters of the distribution. Using the Jensen–Shannon divergence measure, we have shown that under equidispersion restriction, the family of balanced discrete gamma distributions is similar to the Poisson distribution. Based on this, we conjecture that while covering all types of dispersion, a count regression model based on the balanced discrete gamma distribution will allow recovering a near Poisson distribution model fit when the data is Poisson distributed.

The main objective of this article is to explore the causes of household electricity poverty in Spain from an innovative perspective. Based on evidence of energy inequality across households with different income levels, a quantile regression approach was used to better capture the heterogeneity of determinants of energy poverty across different levels of electricity expenditure. The results illustrate some interesting and counter-intuitive findings about the relationship between household income and electricity poverty, and the technical efficiency of quantile regression compared to the imprecise results of a standard single coefficient/OLS approach.

The classical approach to non-linear regression in physics, is to take a mathematical model describing the functional dependence of the dependent variable from a set of independent variables, and then, using non-linear fitting algorithms, extract the parameters used in the modeling. Particularly challenging are real systems, characterised by several additional influencing factors related to specific components, like electronics or optical parts. In such cases, to make the model reproduce the data, empirically determined terms are built-in the models to compensate for the impossibility of modeling things that are, by construction, impossible to model. A new approach to solve this issue is to use neural networks, particularly feed-forward architectures with a sufficient number of hidden layers and an appropriate number of output neurons, each responsible for predicting the desired variables. Unfortunately, feed-forward neural networks (FFNNs) usually perform less efficiently when applied to multi-dimensional regression problems, that is when they are required to predict simultaneously multiple variables that depend from the input dataset in fundamentally different ways. To address this problem, we propose multi-task learning (MTL) architectures. These are characterized by multiple branches of task-specific layers, which have as input the output of a common set of layers. To demonstrate the power of this approach for multi-dimensional regression, the method is applied to luminescence sensing. Here the MTL architecture allows predicting multiple parameters, the oxygen concentration and the temperature, from a single set of measurements.

Evaporation is one of the main processes in the hydrological cycle, and it is one of the most critical factors in agricultural, hydrological, and meteorological studies. Due to the interactions of multiple climatic factors, the evaporation is a complex and nonlinear phenomenon; therefore, the data-based methods can be used to have precise estimations of it. In this regard, in the present study, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Nearest-Neighbor (IBK), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were used to estimate the pan evaporation (PE) in the meteorological stations of Golestan Province, Iran. For this purpose, meteorological data including PE, temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (W) and sunny hours (S) collected from the Gonbad-e Kavus, Gorgan and Bandar Torkman stations from 2011 through 2017. The accuracy of the studied methods was determined using the statistical indices of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Furthermore, the Taylor charts utilized for evaluating the accuracy of the mentioned models. The outcome indicates that the optimum state of Gonbad-e Kavus, Gorgan and Bandar Torkman stations, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with the error values of 1.521, 1.244, and 1.254, the Nearest-Neighbor (IBK) with error values of 1.991, 1.775, and 1.577, Random Forest (RF) with error values of 1.614, 1.337, and 1.316, and Support Vector Regression (SVR) with error values of 1.55, 1.262, and 1.275, respectively, have more appropriate performances in estimating PE. It found that GPR for Gonbad-e Kavus Station with input parameters of T, W and S and GPR for Gorgan and Bandar Torkmen stations with input parameters of T, RH, W, and S had the most accurate performances and proposed for precise estimation of PE. Due to the high rate of evaporation in Iran and the lack of measurement instruments, the findings of the current study indicated that the PE values might be estimated with few easily measured meteorological parameters accurately.

XGBoost is recognized as an algorithm with exceptional predictive capacity. Models for a binary response indicating the existence of accident claims vs. no claims can be used to identify the determinants of traffic accidents. We compare the relative performances of logistic regression and XGBoost approaches for predicting the existence of accident claims using telematics data. The dataset contains information from an insurance company about individuals’ driving patterns – including total annual distance driven and percentage of total distance driven in urban areas. Our findings show that logistic regression is a suitable model given its interpretability and good predictive capacity. XGBoost requires numerous model-tuning procedures to match the predictive performance of the logistic regression model and greater effort as regards interpretation.

The incorporation of renewable energy systems in the world energy system has been steadily increasing during the last years. In terms of the building sector, the usual consumers are becoming increasingly prosumers, and the trend is that communities of energy, whose households share produced electricity, will increase in number in the future. Another observed tendency is that the aggregator (the entity that manages the community) trades the net community energy in public energy markets. To accomplish economically good transactions, accurate and reliable forecasts of the day-ahead net energy community must be available. These can be obtained using an ensemble of multi-step shallow artificial neural networks, with prediction intervals obtained by the covariance algorithm. Using real data obtained by a small energy community of four houses located in the South region of Portugal, one can verify that the deterministic and probabilistic performance of the proposed approach is at least similar, typically better than using complex, deep models.