Existing research indicates that mineralization of Carlin-type gold deposit is related to geological structures, but current studies mostly focus on the qualitative association, and lack quantitative analysis of the relationship between mineralization and structural features, which limits the potential for predictive mineral exploration. In this study, the Nibao Carlin-type gold deposit was selected as the research area to conduct three-dimensional geological modeling, spatial analysis, and three-dimensional prospectivity modeling. Spatial analysis revealed that the majority of gold ore bodies are situated near the main fault, with gold mineralization primarily occurring within a spatial range of approximately -80 meters to 20 meters from the main fault plane. This spatial distribution predominantly aligns in a SW-NE direction. Spatial characteristic extraction of fault slope indicators suggests that the slope angles are conducive to the migration and accumulation of ore-forming hydrothermal fluids, with ore body metal content rapidly increasing within an angle range of approximately 20° to 60°. The shape analysis of the mainfault indicates that the principal spaces of mineralization enrichment are within -10m to 20m of the fault plane undulations, where gold resources are concentrated in a relatively flat area. However, the degree of mineralization is more pronounced in the protruding sections than in the depressed areas. The areas with significant dip changes in faults display higher variations in orebody attitudes, with mineralization noticeably weaker in areas where the fault steepness changes markedly. Ore-bearing units exhibit significantly higher grades within the -17° to 3° interval of fault steepness transition. This interval also sees a rapid accumulation of gold resources. The Nibao gold mine's mineralization is derived from deep, ore-bearing hydrothermal fluids ascending along major fractures, precipitating, and accumulating in favorable ore-hosting spaces (faults, anticline cores) and lithological combinations (sedimentary tuffs, tuffs). Three deep potential gold targets were identified, highlighting the deep western edge of the F1 fault and the deep southeast-trending lower plate as prospective areas for future exploration. This study underscores the effectiveness of 3D prospective modeling as an indispensable tool for elucidating the spatial distribution of fault-controlled Carlin-type gold deposits and their tectonic determinants.

Water quality assessment in pastoral of Tibetan Plateau, which is water sources for about 40% of world's population and the runoff-yield area of Yellow rivers, is very important. In this paper, Xiahe county which belongs to Tibetan Plateau pastoral was investigated. Six parameters(via, chloride, COD, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate, fluoride, sulfate) were selected to assess the water quality and health degree by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods. The hydrochemical type in surface water was of HCO3--Mg2+-Ca2+ type. The cations and anions in surface water were mainly from weathering and dissolution of carbonate rock. Results showed that the water quality in all 69 sampling sites was all of class Ⅰ. The integrated health degree reached more than 0.85 and the health rate were 100%. Although ammonia nitrogen was regarded as the main contamination factor, but it had a little effect on the entire body of water. Overall, the surface water qualities of most samples in Xiahe County was good condition.

The escalation of climate change and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events have amplified the importance of precise and timely lightning prediction. This predictive capability is pivotal for the preservation of life, protection of property, and maintenance of crucial infrastructure safety. Recently, the rapid advancement and successful application of data-driven deep learning across diverse sectors, particularly in computer vision and spatio-temporal data analysis, have opened up innovative avenues for enhancing both the accuracy and efficiency of lightning prediction. This article presents a comprehensive review of the broad spectrum of existing lightning prediction methodologies. Starting from traditional numerical forecasting techniques, we traverse the path to the most recent breakthroughs in deep learning research. We encapsulate these diverse methods, shedding light on their progression and summarizing their capabilities, while also predicting their future development trajectories. This exploration is designed to enhance our understanding of these methodologies, allowing us to better utilize their strengths, navigate their limitations, and potentially integrate these techniques to create novel and powerful lightning prediction tools. Through such endeavors, our aim is to bolster our preparedness against the growing unpredictability of our climate and ensure a proactive stance towards lightning prediction.

While thunderstorms can pose severe risks to property and life, forecasting remains challenging, even at short lead times, as these often arise in meta-stable atmospheric conditions. In this paper, we examine the question of how well we could perform short-term (up to 180min) forecasts using exclusively multi-spectral satellite images and past lighting events as data. We employ representation learning based on deep convolutional neural networks in an “end-to-end” fashion. Here, a crucial problem is handling the imbalance of the positive and negative classes appropriately in order to be able to obtain predictive results (which is not addressed by many previous machine-learning-based approaches). The resulting network outperforms previous methods based on physically-based features and optical flow methods (similar to operational prediction models) and generalizes across different years. A closer examination of the classifier performance over time and under masking of input data indicates that the learned model actually draws most information from structures in the visible spectrum, with infrared imaging sustaining some classification performance during the night.

The horizontal storm structure surrounding lightning ignited wildfires is examined using Vaisala’s National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), NCEP’s Stage IV gauge corrected radar precipitation mosaic, and the US Forest Service’s Fire Occurrence Database. Though lightning flash density peaks strongly around fire ignitions on the instantaneous 1 km scale, on the hourly 10 km scale both the lightning and precipitation peaks are typically offset from fire ignitions. Lightning density is higher and precipitation lower around ignition points compared to non-ignition points. Both regression and horizontal distributions are consistent with the claim that positive flashes have a stronger association with ignition than negative flashes, but the statistical significance remains ambiguous

Atmospheric lightning is an outcome of extreme complex physical processes occurring in the atmosphere. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is considered as a natural disaster. Understanding the importance of CG lightning and implication of the lightning phenomena, Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), world meteorological organization, in its report in the year 2016, introduced the lightning as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV). The present report uses the Lightning Detection Sensor Network (LDSN) established by the National Remote Sensing Centre, Indian Space Research Organization over India to generate the Lightning ECV. A use case of these ECVs are also showcased for an event in Bihar, India, when 42 deaths were reported at locations with large number of CG occurrences.

The atmospheric lightning is one of the natural disasters which need to be considered in the sustainable development. The National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) has installed 46 lightning detection sensors (LDS) across the country. These sensors work in radio frequencies having their detection range up to 1000 km with more than 98% detection efficiency within 300 km range. The network is put in a way that sensors have about 50% sensor-to-sensor overlap in their detection ranges to enable high geolocation accuracy and maintain redundancy. The NRSC-LDS network (LDSN) estimates the current associated with each cloud to ground (CG) lightning flash which can be utilized for the risk assessment. The current estimates from one network to the other need to be inter-calibrated and harmonized. Present study compares the LDSN current estimates with Lightning Location Network (LLN) estimates and results are discussed with their impact on the estimation of vulnerable zones. A case study of lightning-induced fire event is presented to showcase the importance of the currents associated with lightning for future planning.

Electric and/or magnetic fields are generated by stationary charges, uniformly moving charges and accelerating charges. These field components are described in the literature as static fields, velocity fields (or generalized Coulomb field) and radiation fields (or acceleration fields), respectively. In the literature, the electromagnetic fields generated by lightning return strokes are presented using the field components associated with short dipoles and in this description the one to one association of the electromagnetic field terms with the physical process that gives rise to them is lost. In this paper, we will derive expressions for the electromagnetic fields using field equations associated with accelerating (and moving) charges and separate the resulting fields into static, velocity and radiation fields. The results illustrates how the radiation fields emanating from the lightning channel give rise to field terms varying as inverse of distance and distance squired, the velocity fields generating field terms varying as inverse of distance squired and the static fields generating fields components varying as inverse of distance squired and distance cube. These field components depend explicitly on the speed of propagation of the current pulse. However, the total field does not depend explicitly on the speed of propagation of the current pulse. It is shown that these field components can be combined to generate the field components pertinent to the dipole technique. However, in this conversion process the connection of the field components to the physical process taking place at the source that generate these fields (i.e. static charges, uniformly moving charges and accelerating charges) is lost.

This paper analyses the application of deep learning techniques for predicting wave overtopping events in port environments using sea state and weather forecasts as inputs. The study was conducted in the outer port of Punta Langosteira, A Coruña, Spain. A video recording infrastructure was installed to monitor overtopping events from 2015 to 2022, identifying 3709 overtopping events. The data collected was merged with actual and predicted data for the sea state and weather conditions during the overtopping events, creating three datasets. We used these datasets to create several machine learning models to predict whether an overtopping event would occur based on sea state and weather conditions. The final models achieved a high accuracy level during the training and testing stages: 0.81, 0.73, and 0.84 average accuracy during training and 0.67, 0.48, and 0.86 average accuracy during testing, respectively. The results of this study have significant implications for port safety and efficiency, as wave overtopping events can cause disruptions and potential damage. Using deep learning techniques for overtopping prediction can help port managers take preventative measures and optimize operations, ultimately improving safety and helping to minimize the economic impact that overtopping events have on the port's activities.

Day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers, and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participate in predicting the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, Fixed Weight Method (FWM) and Varying Weight Method (VWM), for selecting each hour's expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features derived from information such as past electricity price data, weather data, and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than both the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF) method and our own previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) alone do on the datasets for New York, Australian, and Spanish electricity markets.

Physical reason for the small scale tortuosity observed in sparks and lightning channels is unknown at present. In this paper it is suggested that the small scale tortuosity of the discharge channels is caused by the natural tendency for subsequent leader streamer bursts to avoid each other but at the same time to align as much as possible along the direction of the background electric field. This process will give rise to a discharge channel that re-orients in space during each streamer burst creating the small scale tortuosity.

A PLS-based quality prediction method is proposed for batch processes using two-dimensional extended windows. To realize the adoption of information in the direction of sampling time and batch, a new definition region of support (ROS), k-i-back-extended region of support (KIBROS), is proposed to establish the extended window, which including the data of the previous sampling times in the same batch, the data of the same sampling time in the historical batches, the data of the previous sampling times in the historical batches and the data of the later sampling times in the historical batches. According to these regions of support, extended windows are established, and different models are proposed based on the extended windows for batch processes quality prediction. Further, using a typical batch process as an example, the injection molding process, the proposed quality prediction method is experimentally verified, proving that the proposed methods have higher prediction accuracy than the traditional method and the prediction stability is also improved.

In the dynamic landscape of the telecommunications industry, understanding and mitigating customer churn is paramount for maintaining competitive advantage and sustaining revenue streams. This comprehensive literature review delves into the intricacies of customer churn prediction, a crucial aspect in fortifying the bond between telecom businesses and their customers. The review methodically analyzes 11 articles published between 2000 and March 2024, spotlighting the strategic role of Customer Relationship Management and the prevalence of high churn rates that necessitate a shift from customer acquisition to retention strategies. Furthermore, the review navigates through the challenges inherent in churn prediction, including the complexities of managing large, imbalanced, and noisy datasets and the intricacies involved in model selection and optimization. Despite these challenges, the paper highlights the superior capability of machine learning techniques in handling complex datasets to provide accurate predictions, albeit acknowledging their practical complexities. The main aim of the study is to provide an overview, serving as a knowledge base for researchers interested in machine learning techniques within the realm of telecommunications.

We evaluated the detection efficiency and location accuracy of lightning discharges in Japan using Blitzortung.org, a volunteer-based network for locating lightning discharges from sferics measured by VLF electromagnetic receivers that have been deployed worldwide in recent years. A comparison of the flash rate (the detected lightning rate per area and period) from Blitzortung.org with that from the satellite-based OTD/LIS and the ground-based World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) observations showed that Blitzortung.org clearly observed intense lightning activity in and around the Kanto area, including Tokyo, in summer, which is typical of Japanese lightning activity. However, it did not clearly observe lightning activity in and around the Nansei Islands, including Okinawa. Conversely, Blitzortung.org observed winter lightning activity in the Hokuriku area and off the Kanto. In addition, event studies have compared the detection efficiency and location accuracy of Blitzortung.org with those of the Japanese Lightning Location Network (JLDN) to infer their absolute values. The latest detection efficiency of Blitzortung.org in the Kanto area was estimated at roughly 90%. The mean location accuracy was estimated at up to 5.6 km.

This study analyses the detection efficiency of the Worldwide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) of sensors over Spain, a comparison is made with the Meteorological Spanish Agency (AEMET) Lightning Detection Network. The WWLLN operates a planetary distributed network of Very Low Frequency (VLF) antennas which detect lightning VLF signals around the Earth. Very high currents from lightning strokes radiate strong VLF signals in the band 6-22 kHz, which are detected up to 10,000 km, therefore WWLLN receiving sensors can be sparsely spaced. However the detection capability of VLF signals depends on the environment, and clean areas with a good ground and no metal parts around must be selected for proper reception. For the area of Spain and Portugal we had two WWLLN sensors in 2012, and three sensors later on for the data of 2020, 2021 and 2022. The sensors in Iberian Peninsula are at a distance of around 760 km; that is very close in comparison with other WWLLN sensors in the Earth which are around 5.000-15.000 km. The WWLLN sensors send the timing of the detection to the central sensor where the location of the lightning is determined with an improved algorithm when a mini-mum of 5 sensors detect the VLF signal. We show that detection efficiency was excellent and consistent with previous studies. Lightning location data from 1st January 2012 to 30st April 2012 from AEMET was used to analyze time and space shared events with the WWLLN network with 0.5s time difference and 20 km distance. The results improved in 2020, 2021 and 2022. More than 40,000 lightning strikes were analyzed in the present work, and we found a detection efficiency > 38%.

Currently, the number of lightning casualties and casualty rates have significantly reduced in developed countries, but there has been no significant reduction in developing countries. On the one hand, this is due to the high frequency of lightning; on the other hand, the vulnerability of people in developing countries is also an influencing factor. Through case analysis and summary, this paper expounds on lightning injury’s mechanism and clinical manifestations. It points out that lightning injury is mainly related to heart problems and the impact on the nervous system, rather than burns, which usually cause fewer consequences. Medical treatment needs to pay attention to the order and principles of treatment. Implementing CPR and auxiliary AED is the most effective way to save lives. Attention should be paid to the practical and effective treatment and nursing of lightning stroke sequelae. Finally, combined with the situation of lightning casualties in china, the existing problems are put forward during the process of early treatment, post-hospital treatment, and nursing observation, which provides an objective basis for the cognition of the scientific nature of the lightning injury.

By repeated unloading and loading of the excavation dynamic and static loads, repeated train dynamic and static loads of multi-factors, the underpass tunnel, cross tunnel engineering influence area rock layer, the existing tunnel structure of the three constitutes a multifaceted structure, multi-factor interaction system. Existing tunnels into the prediction theory model of the new tunnel excavation process of dynamic and static loads, dynamic and static loads of existing tunnels are mostly analyzed individually, the results of synergistic analysis needs to be improved. Based on the theory of the current layer method, the paper comprehensively considers the stiffness of the existing tunnel, the stiffness of the new tunnel, the excavation method load and the existing tunnel load, coupled with Peck's empirical formula, the theoretical model of deformation prediction for excavation of a two-lane highway tunnel under the tunnel through the existing railroad is proposed, and verified and optimized by numerical calculations and monitoring data, which proves the applicability and reliability of the theoretical model in the similar strata and the project promotion.

A physical model based on the mechanism observed in experimental investigations is introduced to describe the formation of negative leader steps. Starting with a small length of a space leader located at the periphery of the negative streamer system of the stepped leader the model simulates the growth and the subsequent formation of the leader step. Based on the model, the average step length, the average step forming time and the average stepped leader propagation speed is estimated as a function of prospective return stroke peak current. The results show that the average step length and the average leader speed increases with increasing prospective return stroke current. The results also show that the speed of the stepped leader increases as it approaches the ground. For a 30 kA prospective return stroke current the average leader speed obtained is about 5 x 10⁵ m/s and the average step length was about 10 m. The results obtained are in reasonable agreement with the experimental observations.

Lightning is responsible for most annually burned area by wildfires in the extratropical region of the Northern Hemisphere. Hence, predicting the occurrence of wildfires requires reliable forecasting of the chance of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes during storms. Here, we describe the development and verification of a probabilistic lightning-strike algorithm designed to run on a uniform 20-km grid over the Continental USA and Alaska. The algorithm consists of a large set of logistic equations parameterized via logistic regression using long-term data records of observed lightning strikes and meteorological reanalysis fields from NOAA. Principal Component Analysis was employed to extract 13 Principal Components (strong predictors) from a list of 611 potential predictors. Our statistical analysis revealed that the occurrence of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes primarily depends on three factors: horizontal temperature distribution by pressure levels, amount of low-level atmospheric moisture, and wind vectors. These physical variables impact the vertical separation of electric charges in the lower troposphere during storms causing the voltage potential between ground and the cloud deck to increase to a level that triggers electrical discharges. Results from a forecast verification using independent data showed excellent model skill, thus making this algorithm suitable for inclusion into software systems forecasting the chance of wildfire ignitions.

This paper describes a system that is used to gather data from Smart Home sensors measuring energy consumption, analyze and predict future consumption by using machine learning algorithm for prediction. It focuses on the architecture of the system as well as the need for such system to exist in practice – why the consumption should be measured at all and how that measurement can be put to good use for achieving energy efficiency.

The Mara River basin (MRB) has a world-famous ecosystem, but the vegetation has been damaged due to economic development in recent years, and there is little known about the area that will experience severe vegetation damage in the future. Based on the vegetation vulnerability system, principal component analysis, and three CMIP6 scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), vegetation vulnerability was calculated in the base period (2010-2019), near-term period (2020-2059) and long-term period (2060-2099) in the MRB. The spatial cluster of vegetation vulnerability was revealed by spatial correlation analysis, and the transition of vegetation vulnerability of different periods was analyzed by stochastic matrix. The results showed that in all periods, the vulnerability showed a high-high cluster in the east, and a low-low cluster midstream and downstream. From the stochastic matrix, the area of high vulnerability increased the least under the SSP1-2.6, while it increased the most under the SSP5-8.5. The vegetation vulnerability upstream increased the most from the base period to the near-term period and long-term period in the MRB. By comparing the vegetation vulnerability under different scenarios, and pointing out the areas with the highest vulnerability increase, this study can better provide comprehensive decision-making for vegetation protection in the MRB.

This paper explores the capability of various machine learning algorithms, including Random Forests and advanced gradient boosting techniques such as XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost, to predict customer churn in the telecommunications sector. For this analysis, a dataset available to the public was employed. The performance of these algorithms was assessed using recognized metrics, including Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-score, and the Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under Curve (ROC AUC). These metrics were evaluated at different phases: subsequent to data preprocessing and feature selection; following the application of SMOTE and ADASYN sampling methods; and after conducting hyperparameter tuning on the data that had been adjusted by SMOTE and ADASYN. The outcomes underscore the notable efficiency of upsampling techniques such as SMOTE and ADASYN in addressing the imbalance inherent in customer churn prediction. Notably, the application of random grid search for hyperparameter optimization did not significantly alter the results, which remained comparatively unchanged. The algorithms' performance post- ADASYN application marginally surpassed that observed after SMOTE application. Remarkably, LightGBM achieved an exceptional F1-score of 89% and an ROC AUC of 95% subsequent to the ADASYN sampling technique. This underlines the effectiveness of advanced boosting algorithms and upsampling methods like SMOTE and ADASYN in navigating the complexities of imbalanced datasets and intricate feature interdependencies.

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) thunderclouds, produced from extreme bushfires, can initiate frequent cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning strikes containing extended continuing currents. This, in turn, can ignite new spotfires and inflict massive harm on the environment and infrastructures. This study presents a 3D numerical thundercloud model for estimating the lightning of different types and its striking zone for the conceptual tripole thundercloud structure which is theorized to elucidate the lightning phenomenon in pyroCb storms. More emphasis is given to the lower positive charge structure thundercloud to thoroughly examine various electrical parameters including the longitudinal electric field, electric potential, and surface charge density. The simulation outcomes on pyroCb thunderclouds with a tripole structure confirm the presence of negative longitudinal electric field initiation at the cloud’s lower region. This initiation is accompanied by enhancing the lower positive charge region, resulting in an overall positive electric potential increase. Consequently, negative surface charge density appears underneath the pyroCb thundercloud which has the potential to induce positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) lightning flashes. The suggested model would establish the basis for identifying the potential area impacted by lightning and could also be expanded to analyze the dangerous conditions that may arise in wind energy farms or power substations in times of severe pyroCb events.

When overhead lines are impacted by lightning, the traveling wave of the fault contains a wealth of fault information. The accurate extraction of feature quantities from transient components and their classification is fundamental to the identification of lightning faults. The extraction process may involve modal aliasing, optimal wavelet base issues, and inconsistencies between the lightning strike distance and the fault point, which have the potential to impact the effectiveness of recognition. This paper presents a method for identifying lightning strike faults by utilizing Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence enhanced Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and Symmetric Geometry Mode Decomposition (SGMD) improved with Permutation Entropy (PE) to address the aforementioned issues. A model of a 220 kV overhead line is constructed using real faults to replicate scenarios of winding strike, counterstrike, and short-circuit. The three-phase voltage is chosen and then sub-jected to Karenbaren decoupling in order to transform it into zero mode, line mode 1, and line mode 2. The zero mode voltage is decomposed using KL-VMD and PE-SGMD methods, and lightning identification criteria are developed based on various transient energy ratios. The research findings demonstrate that the criteria effectively differentiate between winding strike, counterstrike, and short-circuit faults, thus confirming the accuracy and efficacy of the lightning fault identification criteria utilizing KL-VMD and PE-SGMD.

The current methods for lightning risk warnings that are based on atmospheric electric field (AEF) data have a tendency to rely on single features, which results in low robustness and efficiency. Additionally, there is a lack of research on cancelling warning signals, contributing to the high false alarm rate (FAR) of these methods. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a lightning risk warning method that incorporates enhanced empirical Wavelet transform-Adaptive Savitzky Gorey filter (EEWT-ASG) and one-dimensional morphology, using time-frequency domain features obtained through the Wavelet transform (WT). The proposed method achieved a probability of detection (POD) of 77.11%, miss alarm rate (MAR) of 22.89%, FAR of 40.19%, and critical success index (CSI) of 0.51, as evaluated on 83 lightning processes. This method can issue a warning signal up to 22 minutes in advance for lightning processes.

In the lightning rods categorized as ESE an intermittent voltage impulse is applied to the lightning rod to modulate the electric field at its tip in an attempt to speed up the initiation of a connecting leader from the lightning rod when it is under the influence of a down coming stepped leader. In this paper it is shown that due to the stepping nature of the down coming stepped leader, there is a natural modulation of the electric field at the tip of any lightning rod exposed to the lightning stepped leaders and this modulation is much more intense than any artificial modulation that is possible under practical conditions. Based on the results it is claimed that artificial modulation of the electric field at the tip of lightning rods by applying voltage pulses to it is an unnecessary endeavor because the nature itself has endowed the tip of the lightning rod with a modulating electric field. Thus, as far as the effectiveness of artificial modulation of the tip electric field is concerned, there could be no difference in the lightning attachment efficiency between ESE and Franklin lightning rods.

Although the water absorption feature (WAF) at 970 nm is not very well-defined, it may be used alongside other indices to estimate the canopy water content. The individual performance of a number of existing vegetation water content (VWC) indices against the WAF is assessed using linear regression model. We developed a new Combined Vegetation Water Index (CVWI) by merging indices to boost the weak absorption feature. CVWI showed a promise in assessing the vegetation water status derived from the 970 nm absorption wavelength. CVWI was able to differentiate two groups of dataset when regressed against the absorption feature. CVWI could be seen as an easy and robust method for vegetation water content studies using hyperspectral field data.

Accurate diagnosis for the 400 million people with rare diseases is critical for healthcare decisions, prognosis, understanding disease mechanisms, and identification of treatments. Despite advances in genome sequencing, barriers such as high interpretation costs, diagnostic expertise, throughput associated delays, and uncertain variant classifications persist, with demand exceeding capacity. Many variant classification methods focus narrowly on specific consequences, leading to the use of complex integrative pipelines that often overlook transcript variability and lack prediction transparency. To overcome these limitations, we introduce DITTO. This transparent, transcript-aware machine-learning method demonstrates superior overall performance in accuracy, recall, and precision when compared to existing tools. DITTO is publicly available at https://github.com/uab-cgds-worthey/DITTO

We have developed additive logistic models for the occurrence of lightning, large (≥ 2 cm), and very large (≥ 5 cm) hail to investigate the evolution of these hazards in the past, in the future, and for forecasting applications. The models, trained with lightning observations, hail reports, and predictors from atmospheric reanalysis, assign an hourly probability to any location and time on a 0.25° × 0.25° × 1-hourly grid as a function of reanalysis-derived predictor parameters, selected following an ingredients- based approach. The resulting hail models outperform the Significant Hail Parameter and the simulated climatological spatial distributions and annual cycles of lightning and hail are consistent with observations from storm report databases, radar, and lightning detection data. As a corollary result, CAPE released above the -10°C isotherm was found to be a more universally skilful predictor for large hail than CAPE. In the period 1950–2021, the models applied to the ERA5 reanalysis indicate significant increases of lightning and hail across most of Europe, primarily due to rising low-level moisture. The strongest modelled hail increases occur in northern Italy with increasing rapidity after 2010. Here, very large hail has become 3 times more likely than it was in the 1950s. Across North America trends are comparatively small, apart from isolated significant increases in the direct lee of the Rocky Mountains and across the Canadian Plains. In the southern Plains, a period of enhanced storm activity occurred in the 1980s and 1990s.

The Lightning Network (LN), a second-layer protocol built on top of the Bitcoin blockchain, is an innovative digital payment solution that offers increased convenience, speed, and cost-effectiveness to consumers and businesses alike. However, there is limited literature available on the characteristics of this nascent technology, the depth and breadth of the various business LN-related applications as well as relevant adoption/implementation challenges. This study aims to contribute to the understanding of the LN’s characteristics, its potential in enhancing business operations and its applicability across different sectors, while taking into account adoption and implementation challenges. We apply a narrative review methodology using a semi-systematic approach to examine new and emerging business models empowered by the LN and its characteristics, topology, performance, privacy, and security. We analyze the data to identify key themes and trends in the literature, offering a critical analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the existing literature. Based on the findings, we provide several clusters of fruitful areas for future research directions. The findings of this study will help businesses make more informed decisions about adopting and leveraging the LN to improve their operations and enhance customer experience.

Heavy rains have created significant threats to human health and life. Floods and other natural disasters, which have a global impact annually, can be attributed to extended durations of intense precipitation. Accurate rainfall predictions are crucial in nations such as Bangladesh, where agriculture is the predominant occupation. The efficiency of machine learning (ML) methods is enhanced by the non-linearity of rainfall, surpassing the effectiveness of other alternative ways. Machine learning techniques show that individual classifiers exhibit worse accuracy than ensemble learning (EL) methodologies. Ensemble Learning techniques are utilized for rainfall prediction and estimating rainfall quantity and daily average temperature to enhance comprehension of the diverse Machine Learning algorithms. This research implements the machine learning techniques and ensemble-based classifier to predict the rainfall occurrence, along with the machine learning regressor models and ensemble-based regressor for the rainfall amount prediction and daily average temperature prediction, using Bangladesh Weather Dataset. The results of the machine learning and ensemble-based models are compared using the Accuracy and F1 score for rainfall occurrence prediction. In contrast, MAE and RMSE evaluation metrics are used for ensemble regressor and regression algorithms for the rainfall amount and daily average temperature prediction. With an accuracy of 83.41% and a recall of 78.17%, the Ensemble Classifier is the best at predicting when it will rain, but its precision of 51.16% stands in for the lowest. The Ensemble Regression model outperforms Linear Regression, Random Forest, and SVR in rainfall amount prediction, with the lowest MAE of 0.36 and RMSE of 0.90. The Ensemble Regression provides the most precise results for daily average temperature prediction with the lowest MAE 0.42 and RMSE 0.54 highlighting its superiority over the other regression models in forecasting temperature with less error. Ensemble approaches consistently lead task performance metrics.

Lightning strike can cause a considerable damage in aircraft parts made from semiconducting materials such as Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastics (CFRPs). Therefore, in recent years, the lightning strike phenomenon has attracted the interest of the academic community and the aircraft industry. Until now, the problem has been addressed mainly experimentally, while the reported numerical works are very limited. In the present work, a coupled electro-thermal FE model has been developed using the ANSYS commercial FE code to simulate the lightning strike damage in unidirectional CFRP laminates due to the Joule heat flux phenomenon. The model is based on the SOLID69 thermoelectric element and applies a non-linear, time-transient analysis. The main input to the model is the thermal-electrical properties of the composite material which vary with temperature. Using the model, a parametric study on the effect of mesh density and peak intensity on the thermal damage has been performed. Three electrical lightning strikes of low (10 kA), medium (30 kA) and high peak intensity (40 kA) have been applied according to the SAE ARP 5412 standard. The electro-thermal model has been validated against a numerical model from the literature. The numerical results reveal that the increase of peak intensity leads to the increase of the area and penetration depth of matrix thermal damage (pyrolysis) as well as to the increase of the area of fiber damage (deterioration and ablation). Through progressive damage modeling, the residual tensile strength of the CFRP plate after being subjected to lightning strike of different peak intensity has been predicted. Lightning strike initial damage has been simulated by translating the thermal field into degradation of elastic properties of the lamina. The results show an increase in the accumulated matrix damage and a decrease of tensile strength due to the initial lightning strike damage. For the maximum peak intensity of 40 kA, a decrease in tensile strength of 4.8% has been predicted

We use the third version of the Canadian Local Climate Model as a diagnostic tool to study the climatology of observed CG lightning activity at Maniwaki (latitude: 46,23°N; Longitude: 75,58°W). We examine the dependence between the hourly lightning activity and the related atmospheric variables during the warm season of sixteen years (between 1984 and 2004). The goal of this research is: a) to evaluate the atmospheric static state evolution and its moisture contents for conditions having generated lightning occurrence, b) to develop a CG lightning parameterization, and c) to verify this CG lightning parameterization on other Canadian areas. The freezing level altitude and the precipitable water content are used to estimate the static air instability and its moisture content respectively. These two parameters are served to develop the CG lightning parameterization. A comparison between the observations and simulations CG lightning occurrence and frequency at Maniwaki showed a mean absolute error rate of 27% and 55% respectively. We apply this parameterization at four Canadian regions, distributed from west to east. The simulated CG lightning results are comparable to observed CG lightning at Maniwaki and tested regions. The application of the CG lightning parameterization to the daily data enabled us to find the monthly results. This application represents a preliminary stage for validation this parameterization in regional numerical models in Canada during the historic period.

Background and Objectives: ARNE score was developed for the prediction of difficult airway for both general and ENT surgery with a universal cut-off value. We tested the accuracy of this score in the case of laryngeal surgery and provided an insight of its combination with flexible laryngoscopy. Materials and Methods: This prospective pilot clinical study included 100 patients who were being scheduled for microscopic laryngeal surgery. We have calculated ARNE score for every patient and flexible laryngoscopy was provided preoperative. Difficult intubation was assessed according to intubation difficulty score (IDS). Results: A total of 33% patients had difficult intubation according to IDS. ARNE score showed to be accurate for prediction of difficult intubation in laryngology with P<0.0001 and AUC 0.784. Flexible laryngoscopy showed to be an independent parameter with P<0.0001 and AUC 0.766. We have defined a new cut-off value of 15.50 for laryngology, according to AUC curve. After the patients were divided in two groups, according to the new cut-off value and provided cut-off value, AUC improved to 0.707 from 0.619 respectively. Flexible laryngoscopy improved the prediction model of ARNE score to AUC 0.882 and of new cut-off value to AUC 0.833. Conclusions: It is recommended to use flexible laryngoscopy together with ARNE score in difficult airway prediction in patients with laryngeal pathology. Also, universally recommended cut-off value of 11 can not be effectively used in laryngology and a new cut-off value of 15.50 is recommended.

Taiwan developing offshore wind power to promote green energy and self-electricity production. In this study, a Light Detection and Ranging (Lidar) was set up at Chang-Hua development zone one on the sea and 10km away from the seashore. At Lidar location, WRF (3.33km & 2km grid lengths) model and WAsP were used to simulate the wind speed at various elevations. Three days mean wind speed of simulated results were compared with Lidar data. From the four wind data sets, developed five different comparisons to find an error% and R-Squared values. Comparison between WAsP and Floating Lidar was shown good consistency. Lukang meteorological station 10 years wind observations at 5m height were used for wind farm energy predictions. The yearly variation of energy predictions of traditional and TGC wind farm layouts are compared under purely neutral and stable condition. The one-year cycle average surface heat flux over the Taiwan Strait is negative (-72.5 (W/m2) and 157.13 STD), which represents stable condition. At stable condition TGC (92.39%) and 600(92.44%), wind farms were shown higher efficiency. The Fuhai met mast wind data was used to estimate roughness length and power law exponent. The average roughness lengths are very small and unstable atmosphere.

The intense motion of a ship can greatly impacts the comfort of crew members and the safety of the vessel. Therefore, accurately estimating and predicting ship attitudes has become an important issue. This paper introduces the latest development in functional deep learning model called DeepOnet. It takes wave height as input and ship motion as output, using a cause-to-result prediction approach. The modeling data used in this study is sourced from publicly available experimental data from the Iowa Institute of Hydraulic Research. Firstly, parameters system tuning was conducted for the neural network's hyperparameters to determine the appropriate combination of parameters. Secondly, the DeepOnet model for wave height and multi-degree-of-freedom motion was established, and the influence of increasing time steps on prediction accuracy was examined. Finally, a comparison was made between the DeepOnet model and the classical time series model LSTM. It was found that the DeepOnet model had a 10-fold improvement in accuracy for roll and heave attitudes. Moreover, as the forecast duration increased, the advantage of DeepOnet showed a trend of strengthening. As a functional prediction model, DeepOnet provides a new promising tool for very short-term prediction of ship motion.

In this study, in order to explore the failure mode of ZnO varistors under multiple lightning stroke, a 5-pulse 8/20 μs nominal lightning current with pulse intervals of 50 ms was applied to the ZnO varistors. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffractometry (XRD) were used to analyze the microstructure of the material. The failure processes of ZnO varistors caused by multiple lightning impulse current were described. The performance changes of ZnO varistors after multiple lightning impulses were analyzed from macro and micro perspectives. According to the results of this study’s experiments, the macroscopic failure mode of the ZnO varistors after multiple lightning impulse was that the electrical parameters deteriorate rapidly with the increase of the number of impulse groups, and finally destroyed by side-corner cracking. The microstructural examination indicated that after the multiple lightning strokes, the proportion of Bi in the several crystal phases had been converted, the grain size of ZnO varistors became smaller, and the white intergranular phase (Bi-rich grain boundary layer) increased significantly. The failure mechanism was thermal damage and grain boundary structure damage caused by temperature gradient thermal stress generated by multiple lightning current.

Keywords: Lightning; Land Cover and Land Use; Topographic Effects, Itacaiúnas River Hydrographic Basin

An observational cohort study of patients diagnosed with endometrial cancer (EC) stage IA G1, or atypical endometrial hyperplasia (AHE), undergoing organ-preserving treatment, was conducted. Objective of the study: to determine CDO1, PITX2, and CDH13 gene methylation levels in early endometrial cancer and atypical hyperplasia specimens obtained before organ-preserving treatment in the patients with adequate response and with insufficient response to hormonal treatment. Materials and methods: 41 endometrial specimens obtained during diagnostic uterine curettage in women with EC (n=28) and AEH (n=13), willing to preserve reproductive function, were studied; 18 specimens of endometrial cancer IA stage G1 from peri- and early postmenopausal women (comparison group) were included in the study. The control group included 18 endometrial specimens from healthy women obtained by diagnostic curettage for missed abortion and/or intrauterine adhesions. Methylation levels were analyzed using the modified MS-HRM method. Results: All 13 women with AEH had complete response (CR) to medical treatment. In the group undergoing organ-preserving treatment for uterine cancer IA stage G1 (n=28), 14 patients had complete response (EC CR group) and 14 had not (non-CR). It was found that all groups had statistically significant differences in CDO1 gene methylation levels with the control group (p<0.001) except for the EC CR group (p=0.21). The p-value of difference between EC CR and EC non-CR groups was <0.001. The differences in PITX2 gene methylation levels between the control and study groups were also significantly different (p<0.001), except for AEH group (p=0.21). For the difference between EC CR and EC non-CR groups, the p-value was 0.43. For CDH13 gene methylation levels, statistically significant differences were found between the control and EC non-CR groups (p<0.001), and the control and EC comparison groups (p=0.005). When comparing the EC CR group with EC non-CR group, the p-value for this gene was <0.001. Simultaneous assessment of CDO1 and CDH13 genes methylation allowed to accurately distinguish between EC CR and EC non-CR groups (AUC=0.96). Conclusion: Assessment of CDO1 and CDH13 gene methylation in endometrial specimens from patients with endometrial cancer (IA stage G1), planned for medical treatment, can predict the treatment outcome.

Whistler mode waves play a major role in regulating the lifetime of trapped electrons in the Earth's radiation belts. Specifically, whistler mode hiss waves are one of the mechanisms that maintains the slot region between the inner and outer radiation belts. The generation mechanism of hiss is a topic still under debate with at least three prominent theories present in the literature. Lightning generated whistlers in their ducted or non-ducted modes, are considered to be one of the possible sources of hiss. We present a study of new observations from the Radio Receiver Instrument (RRI) on the Enhanced Polar Outflow Probe (ePOP: currently known as SWARM-E). RRI consists of two orthogonal dipole antennas, which enables polarization measurements, when the satellite boresight is parallel to the geomagnetic field. Here we present 75 passes of ePOP - RRI from 2014 - 2018, in which lightning whistlers and hiss waves were observed. In more than 50% of those passes hiss is found to co-exist with the lightning whistlers. Moreover, the whistler observations are correlated with observations of wave power at the lower-hybrid resonance. The observations and a whistler mode ray-tracing study suggest that multiple-hop lightning induced whistlers can be a source of hiss and plasma instabilities in the magnetosphere.

Lightning has received a lot of attention in scientific literature during the recent decade, not only because it is an impressive atmospheric phenomenon but also its associations with severe storms that cause unprecedented damages to agriculture, electric power networks, property, and life. This study assessed the Spatio-temporal characteristics of lightning occurrence with elevation in Uganda using lightning flash and elevation datasets for a period of fifteen years (1998-2013). Datasets used in this study included daily lightning flashes as captured by Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) aboard on Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite and elevation data in form of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) obtained from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). Spatio-temporal results indicated that ~80% of areas with an elevation that ranges from 800-1200 m above mean sea level (masl) in Uganda had severe lightning occurrences and ~20% of areas with an elevation greater than 1200 m (masl) had severe lightning occurrences. The country received an enhanced number of lighting events with the highest number in 1999. Subsequently, a reduced trend was observed from 2002 to 2007 followed by an increment in the number of lightning events in (2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013). The intensity of the events decreased gradually though two peaks were observed, (1998-2001) and (2010-2013). Furthermore, results indicate escalations in the frequency and duration of lightning events from 60 times in 1998 to approximately 200 times in 2013 and from 1000 microseconds in 1998 to more than 2000 microseconds in 2013. Generally, the country experienced an enhanced increase in lighting occurrences over the study period which therefore calls for urgent actions to combat the root cause and also provide effective measures to reduce the impacts of lightning strikes.

High-throughput screening technologies continues to produce large amounts of multiomics data from different populations and cell types for various diseases, such as cancer. However, analysis of such data encounters difficulties due to cancer heterogeneity, further exacerbated by human biological complexity and genomic variability. There is a need to redefine the drug discovery development pipeline, bringing an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-powered informational view that integrates relevant biological information and explores new ways to develop effective anticancer approaches. Here, we show SynPred, an interdisciplinary approach that leverages specifically designed ensembles of AI-algorithms, links omics and biophysical traits to predict synergistic anticancer drug synergy. SynPred exhibits state-of-the-art performance metrics: accuracy – 0.85, precision – 0.77, recall – 0.75, AUROC – 0.82, and F1-score - 0.76 in an independent test set. Moreover, data interpretability was achieved by deploying the most current and robust feature importance approaches. A simple web-based application available online at http://www.moreiralab.com/resources/synpred/ was constructed to predict synergistic anticancer drug combinations requiring only the upload of the two drug SMILES to be tested, allowing easy access by non-expert researchers.

The statistical analysis of impact of the top 50 solar flares of X-class (1997-2023) on the global seismic activity, as well as on the earthquake preparation zones located in illuminated part of the globe and in the area of 5000 km radius around the subsolar point was carried out. It is shown by a method of epoch superposition that for all cases the increase of seismicity is observed, especially in the region around the subsolar point (up to 38%) during 10 days after the solar flare in comparison with preceding 10 days. The case study of aftershock sequence of strong M=9.1 earthquake (Su-matra-Andaman Islands, 26.12.2004) after the solar flare of X7.2 class (20.01.2005) demonstrated that the number of aftershocks with magnitude M≥2.5 increases more than 20 times after the solar flare with a delay of 7 days. For the case of the Darfield earthquake (M=7.1, 04.09.2010, New Zealand) it was shown that strong solar flares of class X and M probably triggered two strong aftershocks (M>6) with the same delay of 6 days on the Port Hills fault, which is the most sensitive to external electromagnetic impact from point of view of the fault electrical conductivity and orientation. Based on the obtained results the possible application of natural electromagnetic triggering of earthquakes is discussed for a short-term earthquake prediction using confidently recorded strong external electromagnetic triggering impacts on the specific earthquake preparation zones, as well as ionospheric perturbations due to aerosol emission from the earthquake sources recorded by satellites.

The static formation temperature (SFT) is required to determine the thermophysical properties and production parameters in geothermal and oil reservoirs. However, the SFT is not easy to be obtained by both experimental and physical methods. In this paper, a mathematical approach to predicting SFT based on a new model describing the relationship between bottom hole temperature (BHT) and shut-in time was proposed. The unknown coefficients of the model were derived from least squares fit by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. Besides, the ability to predict SFT based on a few BHT data (such as first 3, 4, or 5 ones of a data set) was evaluated. The accuracy of the proposed method to predict SFT was testified with a deviation percentage less than ±4% and high values of regression coefficient R² (>0.98). The proposed method could be used as a practical tool to predict SFT in both geothermal and oil wells.

Aiming at the development of the application of massive and heterogeneous LEO constellations, the influence of typical perturbation forces on the orbit prediction of LEO satellites at different altitudes is analyzed. Firstly, the main perturbation force model of LEO satellites is introduced. Then experiments for analyzing the influence of orbit prediction on LEO satellites at different altitudes are designed. Finally, the influence of typical perturbation forces on the orbit prediction under different prediction durations by numerical analysis is assessed systematically, and the orbit prediction of LEO satellites with different non-spherical gravitational field orders, ocean tide orders and atmospheric density models were compared and calculated. The research results show that different orders of non-spherical gravitational fields should be considered when the altitude of satellites is different, the reasonable gravitational field orders for LEO satellites at 500km, 1000km, 1500km and 2000km under 1-hour forecast time are 140x140, 80x80, 60x60 and 40x40 orders, the reasonable orders of ocean tide perturbation for 1500km and 2000km satellites are 20x20 orders. Under the 24-hour forecast time, atmospheric resistance has a great influence on the precision of LEO satellites at orbit altitude below 1,000km. The forecast deviation of the LEO satellites orbit at 500km reaches 8751.576m. The difference of orbit precision between different atmospheric density models is in the meter level. The orbit deviation by the Standard Atmosphere 1976 and NRLMSISE 2000 atmospheric models respectively reaches 25.494m. Relevant conclusions provide support for the optimization and selection of dynamical models in high precision orbit determination and fast orbit prediction of LEO satellites.

This overview study set out to compare and synthesise the findings of review studies conducted on predicting student academic performance (SAP) in higher education using educational data mining (EDM) methods, EDM algorithms and EDM tools from 2013 to June 2020. It conducted multiple searches for suitable and relevant peer-reviewed articles on two online search engines, on nine online databases, and on two online academic social networks. It, then, selected 26 eligible articles from 2,050 articles. Some of the findings of this overview study are worth mentioning. First, only 2 studies explicitly stated their precise sample sizes with maths and science as the two most mentioned subject areas. Second, 16 review studies had purposes related to either EDM techniques, EDM methods, EDM models, or EDM algorithms employed to predict SAP and student success in the higher education sector. Third, there are six commonly used typologies of input variables reported by 26 review studies, of which student demographics was the most commonly utilised variable for predicting SAP. Fourth and last, seven common EDM algorithms employed for predicting SAP were identified, of which Decision Tree emerged both as the most used algorithm and as the algorithm with the highest prediction accuracy rate for predicting SAP.

(1) Background Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) is the primary cause of poor vision in young adults. Screening for DR is important but many patients do not attend; (2) Methods: We validated an algorithm for predicting DR and its progression by conducting a retrospective study of 11 children in a population of 120,389 T2DM (3) Results: By applying the algorithm to the population showed an AUC of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.92–0.94) for any-DR and 0.90 (95% CI, 0.89–0.91) for referable-DR(4) Conclusions: The algorithm is useful for predicting patients who could develop referable forms of DR and also for any-DR. This would allow a personalized screening plan to be drawn up for each patient.

The ability to predict the skin sensitization potential of small organic molecules is of high importance to the development and safe application of cosmetics, drugs and pesticides. One of the most widely accepted methods for predicting this hazard is the rodent local lymph node assay (LLNA). The goal of this work was to develop in silico models for the prediction of the skin sensitization potential of small molecules that go beyond the state of the art, with larger LLNA data sets and, most importantly, a robust and intuitive definition of the applicability domain, paired with additional indicators of the reliability of predictions. We explored a large variety of molecular descriptors and fingerprints in combination with random forest and support vector machine classifiers. The most suitable models were tested on holdout data, on which they yielded competitive performance (Matthews correlation coefficients up to 0.52; accuracies up to 0.76; areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves up to 0.83). The most favorable models are available via a public web service at https://nerdd.zbh.uni-hamburg.de/skinDoctor/ that, in addition to predictions, provides assessments of the applicability domain and indicators of the reliability of the individual predictions.

The present minireview assessed the benefits of using artificial intelligence applications in healthcare at predicting the targets of bioactive small molecules in human. Method. The tool is a tuned algorithm, with novel data in web interface. Results. We used tables to order the information of Swiss Target Prediction that allow predictions on combination of chemotherapies and probable side effects. This tool is useful to understand the molecular mechanisms underlying a given phenotype or bioactivity, to rationalize possible favorable or unfavorable side effects and to predict off-targets of known molecules as well as to clear the way for drug repurposing. Predictions are done using a ligand-based approach to compare the similarity between a query molecule and the known ligands of a large collection of protein targets. Conclusion. This study allowed us to formulate recommendations for the use of some of the chemotherapeutic agent groups in cancer patients at a low cost. It is very important and beneficial for patients that take medicine for a longer period and on whose lives depend on such treatment.

The following article presents an analysis of the determinants of diabetes using a dataset containing the surveys of 2000 patients from the Frankfurt Hospital in Germany. The data were analyzed using the following models, namely: Tobit, Probit, Logit, Multinomial Logit, OLS, WLS with heteroskedasticity. The results show that the presence of diabetes is positively associated with "Pregnancies", "Glucose", "BMI", "Diabetes Pedigree Function", "Age" and negatively associated with "Blood Pressure". A cluster analysis is realized using the fuzzy c-Means algorithm optimized with the Elbow method and three clusters were found. Finally a confrontation among eight different machine learning algorithms is realized to select the best performing algorithm to predict the probability of patients to develop diabetes.

Ambrosia trifida is a kind of malignant invasive plant, which has very high reproductive and en-vironmental adaptability. Through strong resource acquisition ability and allelopathy, it could inhibit the growth and reproduction of surrounding plants, destroy the stability of an invasive ecosystem. It is very important to predict the change of suitable distribution area of Ambrosia trifida with climate change before implementing scientific control measures. Based on 106 Ambrosia trifida distribution data and 14 environmental data, the optimal parameter combination (RM = 0.1, FC = LQ) was obtained by using the MaxEnt model optimized by Kuenm package, the potential suit-able areas of Ambrosia trifida in Northeast China under three different climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) with different emission intensities in the future (2050,2070) were predicted. The changes of Ambrosia trifida suitable area in Northeast China under three climate scenarios were compared, and the relationship between the change of suitable area and emission intensity was analyzed. In general, the suitable area of Ambrosia trifida in Northeast China will expand gradually in the future, and the area of its highly suitable area will also increase with the increasing emission intensity, which is unfavorable to the control of Ambrosia trifida.

Despite the availability of COVID-19 vaccines, the global pandemic remains a significant health challenge. Timely detection of the virus is crucial for effective containment efforts, prompting the exploration of machine learning (ML) models for COVID-19 detection. highlights the ongoing significance of COVID-19 as a global health crisis despite the availability of vaccines. To address the need for timely virus detection, the study explores the efficacy of machine learning (ML) models, including DNN, Voting, Bagging, SVC_rbf, SVC_linear, SVC_polynomial, and SVC_sigmoid, in predicting COVID-19 infection probability. With a dataset comprising 4000 samples split into 3200 for training and 800 for testing, the analysis reveals that DNN and Voting models demonstrate the highest performance, achieving an impressive accuracy of 89%. These results underscore the potential of ML techniques, particularly DNN and ensemble methods like Voting, in facilitating early COVID-19 detection and contributing to effective pandemic management. The study emphasizes the importance of continued research to further refine and optimize ML-based COVID-19 detection systems.

ABSTRACT Underwater mines may destroy friendly submarines and marine habitats, compromising nonmilitary security. Finding credible information is vital to avoiding scams and spotting hazards. This article employs Supervised Machine literacy models to appropriately categorize subsea items like mines or gems based on Sonar sounds. Python constructs three double classifier models using Gorman and Sejnowski (1988) training data. Through the extraction of key aspects from the Sonar signals, such as spectral components and intensity, the models are able to match newly obtained data with the gemstone order or mine. Delicacy decreases the chance of misidentifications in nonmilitary activities. Machine literacy offers full validation that accommodates real-world Sonar data noise and unpredictability. Based on test results, the highest performing algorithm will deliver the required ratio of accuracy to perceptivity for the bracket task. Central keywords: vaticination model, bracket algorithms, supervised machine literacy, SONAR, and aquatic mining emphasize particular foundations. Improved sophistication in spotting undersea Mines let nonmilitary defence systems respond to proven threats only, preventing friendly submarines or sea life from unnecessary damage owing to false duplicity. This work is a promising start to real-world mine detection devices. Further developments may incorporate greater training data sets, real-time testing on subsea platforms equipped with integrated sonar, and optimization for the discovery of new mine-types. Overall, machine learning and Sonar vision decrease signal fluctuation and noise, making it easier to determine accurate boundaries for non-military applications and environmental protection. The recommended automated discovery technique must balance computational efficiency, generalizability, and delicacy. Prior a real crime, new quality control and verification procedures could boost trust even further.

Coastal inundation is recently requiring a significant attention worldwide. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events (sea storms, tsunami waves) are highly stressing the coastal envi-ronments, e.g. endangering a large number of residential areas, ecosystems, tourist facilities, and also leading to potential environmental risks. Predicting such events and the generated coastal flooding is thus of paramount importance and can be reached by exploiting the potential of different tools, like remote sensors and numerical modeling. To this aim, a combination is possible between marine radars and wave-resolving propagation models. While instruments like X-band radars are able at precisely reconstructing both wave field and bathymetry within a coastal area that is some kilometers offshore, wave-resolving Boussinesq-type models can reproduce the wave propagation in the nearshore and the consequent coastal flooding. The present work illustrates the reconstruc-tion of coastal data (wave field and seabed depth) conducted using radar signals and a specifically suited data processing, named “Local Method”, and the use of such coastal data to run numerical simulations of wave propagation (using the FUNWAVE-TVD solver) aimed at reproducing coastal inundation over different scenarios. Such scenarios are built using two different European beaches, i.e. Senigallia (Italy) and Oostende (Belgium), and three different directional spreading values, to evaluate the performances in case of either long- or short-crested waves. The overall validation of the methodology, in terms of maximum inundation, shows good performances, especially in case of short-crested wind waves. Furthermore, the application on the Oostende beach demonstrates that the present methodology might work only using open-access tools, i.e. an easy investigation of the coastal inundation and a potential low-cost integration into early warning systems.

As one of the fastest-growing new energy sources, wind power technology has attracted widespread attention from all over the world. In order to improve the quality of wind power generation, wind speed prediction is an indispensable task. In this paper, an error correction based Variational Mode Decomposition and Broad Learning System (VMD-BLS) hybrid model is proposed for wind speed prediction. First, the wind speed is decomposed into multiple components by the VMD algorithm, and then an ARMA model is established for each component to find the optimal number of sequence divisions. Second, the BLS model is used to predict each component, and the prediction results are summed to obtain the wind speed forecast value. However, in some traditional methods, there is always time lag, which will reduce the forecast accuracy. To deal with this, a novel error correction technique is developed by utilizing BLS. Through verification experiment with actual data, it proves that the proposed method can reduce the phenomenon of prediction lag, and can achieve higher prediction accuracy than traditional approaches, which shows our method’s effectiveness in practice.

With the rise of Blockchain technology, the cryptocurrency market has been gaining significant interest. In particular, the number of cryptocurrency traders and the market capitalization have grown tremendously. However, predicting cryptocurrency price is very challenging and difficult due to the high price volatility. In this paper, we propose a classification machine learning approach in order to predict the direction of the market (i.e., if the market is going up or down). We identify key features such as Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) to feed the machine learning model. We illustrate our approach through the analysis of Bitcoin close price. We evaluate the proposed approach via different simulations. Particularly, we provide a backtesting strategy. The evaluation results show that the proposed machine learning approach provides buy and sell signals with more than 86% accuracy.

As the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is continuously increasing in India, so epidemiological modeling of COVID-19 data is urgently required for administrative strategies. Time series and is capable to predict future observations by modeling the data based on past and present data. Here, we have modeled the epidemiological COVID-19 Indian data using various models. Based on the collected COVID-19 outbreak data, we try to find the propagation rule of this outbreak disease and predict the outbreak situations in India. For India data, the time series model gives the best results in the form of predication as compared to other models for all variables of COVID-19. For new cases, new deaths, total cases and total deaths, the best fitted ARIMA models are as follows: ARIMA(0,2,3), ARIMA(0,1,1), ARIMA(0,2,0) and ARIMA(0,2,1). Based on time series analysis, we predict all variables for next month and conclude that the predictive value of Indian COVID-19 data of total cases is more than 20 lakhs with more than 43 thousand total deaths. The present chapter recommended that a comparison between various predictive models provide the accurate and better forecast value of the COVID-19 outbreak for all study variables.

Biomolecular structure drives function, and computational capabilities have progressed such that the prediction and computational design of biomolecular structures is increasingly feasible. Because computational biophysics attracts students from many different backgrounds and with different levels of resources, teaching the subject can be challenging. One strategy to teach diverse learners is with interactive multimedia material that promotes self-paced, active learning. We have created a hands-on education strategy with a set of fifteen modules that teach topics in biomolecular structure and design, from fundamentals of conformational sampling and energy evaluation to applications like protein docking, antibody design, and RNA structure prediction. Our modules are based on PyRosetta, a Python library that encapsulates all computational modules and methods in the Rosetta software package. The workshop-style modules are implemented as Jupyter Notebooks that can be executed in the Google Colaboratory, allowing learners access with just a web browser. The digital format of Jupyter Notebooks allows us to embed images, molecular visualization movies, and interactive coding exercises. This multimodal approach may better reach students from different disciplines and experience levels as well as attract more researchers from smaller labs and cognate backgrounds to leverage PyRosetta in their science and engineering research. All materials are freely available at https://github.com/RosettaCommons/PyRosetta.notebooks.

Geospatial Information Systems (GIS) can provide a great environment for using machine learning algorithm for spatial data such as satellite images. Integrating this functionality with artificial intelligence algorithms for analyzing spatial data enables us to predict challenging disasters such as deforestation. Deforestation as an environmental problems has been recorded the most serious threat to environmental diversity and one of the main components of land-use change. In this paper, we investigate spatial distribution of deforestation using artificial neural networks and satellite imagery. We modeled deforestation process using various factors in determining the relationship between deforestation and environmental and socioeconomic factors. Hence, for this purpose, the proximity to roads and habitats, fragmentation of the forest, height from sea level, slope, and soil type are considered in the model. In this research, we modeled land cover changes (forests) to predict deforestation using an artificial neural network due to its significant potential for the development of nonlinear complex models. The procedure involves image registration and error correction, image classification, preparing deforestation maps, determining layers, and designing a multi-layer neural network to predict deforestation. The satellite images for this study are of a region in Hong Kong which are captured from 2012 to 2016. The results of the study demonstrate that neural networks approach for predicting deforestation can be utilized and its outcomes show the areas that destroyed during the research period.

Living organisms are active open systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium. The ability to behave actively corresponds to dynamical metastability: minor but supercritical internal or external effects may trigger major substantial actions such as gross mechanical motion, dissipating internally accumulated energy reserves. Gaining selective advantage from beneficial use of activity requires a consistent combination of sensual perception, memorised experience, statistical or causal prediction models, and resulting favourable decisions on actions. This information processing chain originated from mere physical interaction processes prior to life, here denoted as structural information exchange. From there, the self-organised transition to symbolic information processing marks the beginning of life, evolving by novel purposivity of trial-and-error feedback and accumulation of symbolic information. The emergence of symbols and prediction models can be described as a ritualisation transition, a symmetry-breaking kinetic phase transition of the 2^nd kind previously known from behavioural biology. The related new symmetry is the neutrally stable arbitrariness, conventionality or code invariance of symbols with respect to their meaning. The meaning of such symbols is given by the structural effect they ultimately unleash, directly or indirectly, by deciding on which actions to take. The early genetic code represents the first symbols. The genetically inherited symbolic information is the first prediction model for activities sufficient for survival under the condition of environmental continuity, sometimes understood as a “final causality” property of the model.

This article presents an estimation of the hypertension risk based on a dataset on 1007 individuals. The application of a Tobit Model shows that “Hypertension” is positively associated to “Age”, “BMI-Body Mass Index”, and “Heart Rate”. The data show that the element that has the greatest impact in determining inflation risk is “BMI-Body Mass Index”. An analysis was then carried out using the fuzzy c-Means algorithm optimized with the use of the Silhouette coefficient. The result shows that the optimal number of clusters is 9. A comparison was then made between eight different machine-learning algorithms for predicting the value of the Hypertension Risk. The best performing algorithm is the Gradient Boosted Trees Regression according to the analyzed dataset. The results show that there are 37 individuals who have a predicted hypertension value greater than 0.75, 35 individuals who have a predicted hypertension value between 0.5 and 0.75, while 227 individuals have a hypertension value between 0.0 and 0.5 units.

Predicting the popularity of posts on social networks has taken on significant importance in recent years, and several social media management tools now offer solutions to improve and optimize the quality of published content and to enhance the attractiveness of companies and organizations. Scientific research has recently moved in this direction, with the aim of exploiting advanced techniques such as machine learning, deep learning, natural language processing, etc., to support such tools. In light of the above, in this work we aim to address the challenge of predicting the popularity of a future post on Instagram, by defining the problem as a classification task and by proposing an original approach based on Gradient Boosting and feature engineering, which led us to promising experimental results. The proposed approach exploits big data technologies for scalability and efficiency and is general enough to be applied to other social media as well.

Rising incidences of cutaneous melanoma have fueled the development of statistical models that predict the individual melanoma risk. Our aim was to assess the validity of published prediction models for incident cutaneous melanoma using a standardized procedure based on PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool). We included studies that were identified by a recent systematic review and updated the literature search to ensure that our PROBAST rating included all relevant studies. Six reviewers assessed the risk of bias (ROB) for each study using the published “PROBAST Assessment Form” that consists of four domains and an overall rating of ROB. We further examined a temporal effect regarding changes in overall and domain-specific ROB rating distributions. Altogether 42 studies were assessed, of which a vast majority (n=34; 81%) was rated as having high ROB. Only one study was judged as having low ROB. The main reasons for high ROB ratings were the use of hospital controls in case-control studies and the omission of any validation of prediction models. However, our results of the temporal analysis showed a significant reduction in the number of studies with high ROB for the domain analysis. Nevertheless, the evidence base of high-quality studies that can be used to draw conclusions on the prediction of incident cutaneous melanoma is currently much weaker than the high number of studies on this topic would suggest.

COVID-19 has substantially influenced healthcare systems, requiring early prognosis for innovative therapies and optimal results, especially in individuals with comorbidities. Healthcare practitioners have used AI systems for investigating, anticipating, and predicting diseases, through means including medication development, clinical trial analysis, and pandemic forecasting. This study proposes the use of AI to predict disease severity in terms of hospital mortality among COVID-19 patients. Methodology: A cross-sectional study was conducted the approval from the Research Ethics Committee of King Abdulaziz University (KAU), Saudi Arabia. The study used sequential sampling approaches to include 50 Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) positive COVID-19 patients from KAU's coronavirus isolation wards. A pre-designed form was used to collect each patient's demographic information, including age and gender, signs and symptoms, illness severity (mild, moderate, severe), and laboratory findings. Furthermore, the length of the hospital stay and the result, whether the patient recovered or died, were reported. Results: The study involved 50 patients with varying degrees of disease severity, most of whom suffered from fever, fatigue, cough, sore throat, and diarrhoea. Laboratory analysis of COVID-19 patients showed increased white blood cell and platelet counts, with C-reactive protein levels above normal. Elevated LDH levels indicated possible tissue damage, while ferritin levels were elevated. Other enzymes were in the normal range, but bilirubin levels were slightly elevated. Overall, the patient's lab results indicated inflammation and possible blood clot formation. The study evaluated the predictive accuracy for outcomes and mortality of COVID-19 patients based on factors such as CRP, LDH, Ferritin, ALP, Bilirubin, D-dimers, and hospital stay (p-value ≤0.05). The predictive accuracy mortality of patients with COVID-19 using AI showed Hospital stay, D-Dimers ALP, Bilirubin, LDH, CRP, and Ferritin significantly affected hospital mortality. (p ≤ 0.0001). Conclusion: Artificial Intelligence is crucial for identifying early coronavirus infections and monitoring patient conditions. It improves treatment consistency and decision-making via the development of algorithms. AI can track the crisis at various scales, facilitate research, and aid in developing treatment regimens, prevention strategies, and drugs and vaccines. It also aids in monitoring health and facilitating research on the virus.

Predicting anomalies in manufacturing assembly lines is crucial for reducing time and labor costs and improving processes. For instance, in rocket assembly, premature part failures can lead to significant financial losses and labor inefficiencies. With the abundance of sensor data in the Industry 4.0 era, machine learning (ML) offers potential for early anomaly detection. However, current ML methods for anomaly prediction have limitations, with F1-measure scores of only 50% and 66% for prediction and detection, respectively. This is due to challenges like the rarity of anomalous events, scarcity of high-fidelity simulation data (actual data is expensive), and the complex relationships between anomalies not easily captured by traditional ML approaches. Specifically, these challenges relate to two dimensions of anomaly prediction: predicting when anomalies will occur and understanding the dependencies between them. This paper introduces a new method called Robust and Interpretable 2D Anomaly Prediction (RI2AP) designed to address both dimensions effectively. RI2AP is demonstrated on a rocket assembly simulation, showing up to a 30-point improvement in F1 measure compared to current ML methods. This highlights its potential to enhance automated anomaly prediction in manufacturing. Additionally, RI2AP includes a novel interpretation mechanism inspired by a causal-influence framework, providing domain experts with valuable insights into sensor readings and their impact on predictions. Finally, the RI2AP model is deployed in a real manufacturing setting for assembling rocket parts. Results and insights from this deployment demonstrate the promise of RI2AP for anomaly prediction in manufacturing assembly pipelines.

This paper investigates the roll parameter estimation of periodic disturbances where the amplitude, frequency, offset, and phase are hardly recognized in real practice. The key problem is to make an estimation that could eliminate the unknown disturbance parameters. An adaptive mechanism applies these four parameters to the globally exponential convergence using linear second-order filters and parameter estimation errors. Then, a backstepping controller is employed to make an exponential convergence to zero of the state variables. Moreover, reservoir computing is used to forecast chaotic roll motions to support predictability using Lyapunov exponents and the Poincaré map. Numerical simulations are demonstrated to validate the dynamical behaviors and efficacy of the proposed control scheme with machine learning.

Infrared dim and small target detection is a key technology of various detection tasks. However, due to the lack of shape, texture, and other information, it is a challenging task to detect dim and small targets. Recently, since many traditional algorithms ingore global information of infrared images, they generate some false alarms in complicated environments. To address this problem, in this paper, a coarse-to-fine deep learning-based method is proposed to detect dim and small targets. Firstly, a coarse-to-fine detection framework integrating deep learning and background prediction is applied for detecting targets. The framework contains of coarse detection module and fine detection module. In coarse detection stage, Region Proposal Network (RPN) is employed to generate masks in target candidate regions. Then, for further optimize the result, inpainting is utilized to predict the background by the global semnantic of images. In this paper, inpainting algorithm with a mask aware dynamic filtering module is incorporated into the fine detection stage to estimate background in candidate target areas. Finally, compared with existing algorithms, the experimental results indicate that the proposed framework have effective detection capability and robustness for complex surroundings.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), dementia is the seventh leading reason of death among all illnesses and one of the leading causes of disability among the world’s elderly people. Day by day the number of Alzheimer’s patients is raising. Considering the increasing rate and the dangers, Alzheimer’s disease should be diagnosed carefully. Machine learning is a potential technique for Alzheimer’s diagnosis but general users do not trust machine learning models due to the black-box nature. Even, some of those models do not provide the best performance because of using only neuroimaging data. To solve these issues, this paper proposes a novel explainable Alzheimer’s disease prediction model using a multimodal dataset. This approach performs a data-level fusion using clinical data, Freesurfer MRI segmentation data, and psychological data. For Alzheimer’s disease vs cognitively normal prediction, the random forest classifier provides 100% accuracy. Furthermore, Alzheimer’s disease and non-Alzheimer’s dementia should be classified properly because their symptoms are similar. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to present a three-class classification on Alzheimer’s disease vs cognitively normal vs non-Alzheimer’s dementia and achieved 99.86% accuracy using an ensemble model. Besides, a novel Alzheimer’s patient management architecture is also proposed in this work..

This paper presents a two-way factor design incorporating both spatial and temporal variation in the prediction of COVID 19 in Africa. In line with this, the impact of COVID-19on the GDP in Africa is well scrutinized. In contrast to the existing works [1–3], this work also extends the two-factor design into the one-way factor design through incorporating covariates into spatial effects. The data rely on the spatial and temporal obtained from WHO datasets [4, 5]. The one-factor design with more covariates is taken into consideration to identify the major potential predictor variables responsible for the deaths and confirmed cases due to COVID 19 in Africa. The MANCOVA considered population density, temperature, humidity; perception, and wind are all considered as co-variates. Simulations show that the two-way analysis of variance has shown that there is a statistically significant difference between the spatial (Fcal= 8.2704, Pvalue= 3.099∗10−6)and temporal (Fcal= 48.7964, Pvalue= 9.147∗10−16) effects. South Africa and Nigeria are highly influencing due to the pandemic where their GDP also relatively mostly declined. A significant economic change is observed before the pandemic and after the outbreak of the pandemic(tcal= 2.9548, Pvalue= 0.01805). COVID 19 negatively influenced the economy of1 most of the African countries. The population density, temperature, and wind are found to be statistically significantly associated with COVID 19 cases and deaths.

An application of deep convolutional neural network and recurrence plot for financial market movement prediction is presented. Though it is challenging and subjective to interpret its information, the pattern formed by a recurrence plot provide a useful insight into the dy- namical system. We used a recurrence plot of seven financial time series to train a deep neural network for financial market movement predic- tion. Our approach is tested on our dataset and achieved an average of 53.25% classification accuracy. The result suggests that a well trained deep convolutional neural network can learn a recurrence plot and pre- dict a financial market direction.

We write the mutual information between an input speech utterance and its reconstruction by a Code-Excited Linear Prediction (CELP) codec in terms of the mutual information between the input speech and the contributions due to the short term predictor, the adaptive codebook, and the fixed codebook. We then show that a recently introduced quantity, the log ratio of entropy powers, can be used to estimate these mutual informations in terms of bits/sample. A key result is that for many common distributions and for Gaussian autoregressive processes, the entropy powers in the ratio can be replaced by the corresponding minimum mean squared errors. We provide examples of estimating CELP codec performance using the new results and compare to the performance of the AMR codec and other CELP codecs. Similar to rate distortion theory, this method only needs the input source model and the appropriate distortion measure.

The accuracy of sales prediction models based on the big data of online word-of-mouth (eWOM) is still not satisfied. We argue that eWOM contains heat and sentiments of different product dimensions, which can improve the accuracy of these models. In this paper, we propose a dynamic topic analysis (DTA) framework in order to extract heat and sentiments of product dimensions from the big data of eWOM. Finally, we propose an autoregressive-heat-sentiment (ARHS) model, which integrates heat and sentiments of dimensions into the baseline predictive model. The empirical study in movie industry confirms that heat and sentiments of dimensions can improve the accuracy of sales prediction model. ARHS model is better for movie box-office revenue prediction than other models.

Propolis is a bee product widely used as a dietary supplement and included in sweets or baby foods due to its well-known antioxidant and nutritional properties that are directly correlated with its phenolic composition. For this reason, this study analysed the total contents of flavones and flavonols, flavanones and dihydroflavonols, and the antioxidant capacity by using the methods of ABTS and linoleic acid/β-carotene in 99 samples of propolis from Spain and Chile. A rapid method was developed for quantifying these parameters in raw propolis using near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy with an optical fibre probe of remote reflectance applied directly to the ground up sample. The models developed allow the determination of the total of flavones and flavonols (0-183 mg rutin/ g propolis), of the total of flavanones and dihydroflavonols (9-109 mg pinocembrin/ g propolis extract), and the antioxidant capacity by the ABTS method (0-3212 nmolesTrolox/ mg of propolis) and of linoleic acid/β-carotene (22-86% inhibition). The NIR spectroscopy models were applied in external validation to different samples of the calibration group, which led to the conclusion that the methods developed provide significantly identical data to the initial chemical data of reference.

Authorities and governmental bodies strongly emphasize the importance of residents preparing for natural disasters, particularly underscoring the significance of readiness for geophysical hazards like earthquakes. In this study, which represents comparative quantitative research, the levels and predictors of the impact on preparedness for earthquake-induced disasters in South-Eastern Europe countries such as Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia are examined. Using the snowball sampling technique (online questionnaire), a survey of 1245 respondents (Montenegro (n = 400), North Macedonia (n = 345), and Serbia (n = 500) was conducted from February 2023 to February 2024. The paper is based on the central hypothesis that the most significant predictor of earthquake preparedness in Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia is age, followed by gender and education. Multivariate regression analysis was used to determine the extent to which five scores of the subscales (household preparedness, community preparedness, disaster preparation, earthquake risk awareness, reinforced house) were associated with seventh demographic and socio-economic variables. In addition to the mentioned analysis, other statistical analyses such as T-test, one-way ANOVA analysis, and Pearson correlation were also utilized. The results indicate that age emerges as a predictor in various aspects of earthquake-induced disaster preparedness and awareness in most models, followed by education. These findings confirm the significance of respondents' age in determining levels of preparedness and earthquake awareness. Overall, in North Macedonia, respondents recorded the highest ratings (M = 3.52) for household preparedness for earthquakes, compared to Montenegro (M = 2.98) and Serbia (M = 3.26), where the lowest ratings were recorded. Research findings, taking into account cultural characteristics, can serve as a basis for the development of targeted interventions, strategies, policies, and programs aimed at improving the level of societal preparedness for earthquake-induced disasters.

The strategy of any organization is based on the growth of its customer base, and one of 5 its principles is that selling a product to an existing customer is much more profitable than acquiring 6 a new customer. However, this approach has several opportunities for improvement, since it usu- 7 ally has a totally reactive approach, which does not give opportunity to the areas specialized in 8 customer experience and recovery, to give an effective response for that moment, since the customer 9 is gone at the time of the intervention. This happens because usually a diagnostic analysis of cus- 10 tomers who have stopped buying products or services in a defined period, commonly three (3) pe- 11 riods or months, is performed. This paper challenges the way to face this problem, and proposes 12 the development of a complete solution, which does not focus exclusively on the prediction of 13 churn, as is usually done in the state of the art research, but to intervene in different interactions 14 that can be carried out with customers. The above focused not only to prevent customer churn, but 15 to generate an added value of continuous improvement in sales processes, increase customer pene- 16 tration, leading to an improvement in customer experience and consequently, an increase in cus- 17 tomer loyalty.

Prediction of stock groups values has always been attractive and challenging for shareholders. This paper concentrates on the future prediction of stock market groups. Four groups named diversified financials, petroleum, non-metallic minerals and basic metals from Tehran stock exchange are chosen for experimental evaluations. Data are collected for the groups based on ten years of historical records. The values predictions are created for 1, 2, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 days in advance. The machine learning algorithms utilized for prediction of future values of stock market groups. We employed Decision Tree, Bagging, Random Forest, Adaptive Boosting (Adaboost), Gradient Boosting and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Artificial neural network (ANN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Long short-term memory (LSTM). Ten technical indicators are selected as the inputs into each of the prediction models. Finally, the result of predictions is presented for each technique based on three metrics. Among all algorithms used in this paper, LSTM shows more accurate results with the highest model fitting ability. Also, for tree_based models, there is often an intense competition between Adaboost, Gradient Boosting and XGBoost.

(1) Background: The analysis of athletic performance has always aroused great interest from sport scientist. This study utilized machine learning methods to build predictive models using a comprehensive CrossFit (CF) dataset, aiming to reveal valuable insights into the factors influencing performance and emerging trends.; (2) Methods: The study used Random Forest (RF) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models to predict performance in four key weightlifting exercises within CF: clean & jerk, snatch, back squat, and deadlift. Performance was evaluated using R-squared (R2) values and Mean Squared Error (MSE). Feature importance analysis was conducted using RF, XGBoost, and AdaBoost models.; (3) Results: The RF model excelled in deadlift performance prediction (R2 = 0.80), while the MLR model demonstrated remarkable accuracy in clean & jerk (R2 = 0.93). Across exercises, clean & jerk consistently emerged as a crucial predictor. The feature importance analysis revealed intricate relationships among exercises, with gender significantly impacting deadlift performance.; (4) Conclusions: This research advances our understanding of performance prediction in CF through machine learning techniques. It provides actionable insights for practitioners, optimize performance, and demonstrates the potential for future advancements in data-driven sports analytics.

This work focuses on identifying the most effective machine learning techniques and supervised learning models to precisely estimate power output from Photovoltaic (PV) plants. The performance of various regression models is analyzed by harnessing experimental data, including Random Forest, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), Linear Regressor (LR), Gradient Boosting, and k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN). The methodology applied starts with meticulous data preprocessing steps aimed at ensuring dataset integrity. Following the preprocessing phase, which entails eliminating missing values and outliers using Isolation Feature selection based on a correlation threshold, is performed to identify relevant parameters for accurate prediction in PV systems. Subsequently, Isolation Forest is employed for outlier detection, followed by model training and evaluation using key performance metrics such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R-squared (R2). Among the array of models evaluated, Random Forest emerges as the top performer, highlighting promising results with an RMSE of 19.413, NRMSE of 0.048% and an R2 score of 0.968. Furthermore, the best-performing model is integrated into a MATLAB application for real-time predictions, thereby enhancing usability and accessibility for a wide range of applications in renewable energy.

Software defect prediction models enable test managers to predict defect-prone modules and assist with delivering quality products. A test manager would be willing to identify the attributes that can influence defect prediction and should be able to trust the model outcomes. The objective of this research is to create software defect prediction models with a focus on interpretability. Additionally, it aims to investigate the impact of size, complexity, and other source code metrics on the prediction of software defects. This research will also assess the reliability of cross-project defect prediction. Well-known machine learning techniques such as support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, random forest classifiers, and artificial neural networks were applied to publicly available PROMISE datasets. The interpretability of this approach has been demonstrated by SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) techniques. The developed interpretable software defect prediction models showed reliability on independent and cross-project data. Finally, the results demonstrate that static code metrics can contribute to the defect prediction models, and the inclusion of explainability assists in establishing trust in the developed models.

The rapid evolution of information and communication technologies, notably the Internet, has yielded substantial benefits while posing challenges to information system security. With an increasing frequency of cyber threats—from unauthorized access to data breaches—the digital landscape's vulnerability is evident. Addressing the financial impact of cybercrime, this study delves into the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) technologies in cybersecurity. Analyzing advancements and outcomes, the research explores practical techniques for anomaly detection, threat prediction, and automated response. By investigating prior research and real-world implementations, the study provides valuable insights into the potential of AI/ML, uncovering current trends, challenges, and prospects in enhancing cybersecurity tactics amid a dynamically changing threat landscape.

Electroencephalography (EEG) is essential for tracking brain activity and identifying seizure effects. However, epileptic behaviour can only be detected after a specialist has carefully analysed all EEG recordings along with a proper history of the patient. A skilled physician is required for the right epilepsy diagnosis and therapy. But most of the time, patients visit the clinician in the interictal stage with no proper history documented. Therefore, it was essential to the automatic prediction of stages of seizure. K nearest neighbours (KNN) and random forest (RF) models using raw EEG signals, preictal, ictal, postictal, and interictal stages were identified in this study. The possibility of these characteristics is explored by examining how well time-domain signals work in the prediction of epileptic stages using intracranial EEG datasets from Freiburg Hospital (FH), Children's Hospital Boston-Massachusetts Institute of Technology (CHB-MIT), and Temple University Hospital (TUHEEG). To test the viability of this approach, two different types of simulations were carried out on three binary classifications (interictal vs. preictal, interictal vs. ictal, preictal vs. postictal, and interictal vs. postictal), and one four-class problem (interictal vs. preictal vs. ictal vs. postictal) was performed for each model. The average accuracy when using time-domain signals in the FH database was 90.5% and 75.0%; CHB-MIT was 92.87% and 75.9%; and TUHEEG was 94.46% and 76.8%, respectively, for the KNN and RF models.

In recent years, intelligent identification and prediction of ore deposits based on deep learning algorithm and image processing technology has gradually become one of the research frontiers in the field of geological and metallogenic prediction. However, this method also has many problems that need to be solved. For example, (1) very few trainable image samples containing mineral point labels; (2) The geological image features are small and irregular, and the image similarity is high; (3) It is difficult to calculate the influence of different geological prospecting factors on ore mineralization. Based on this, this paper constructs a deep learning network model Multiscale Feature Attention Framework (MFAF) based on geo-image data. The results show that MFCA-Net module in MFAF model can solve the problem of scarce mine label images to a certain extent. In addition, the channel attention mechanism SE-Net module can quantify the difference of influence of different source factors on mineralization. The prediction map is obtained by applying the MFAF model in the study of deposit identification and prediction in the research area of the southern section of Qin-hang metallogenic Belt. In the forecast map, many regions have high metallogenic potential. Through observation, it is found that the above predicted area covers 100% of the known ore deposits at present, which has a good prediction effect. Later, we can find out the specific reasons through field verification. The multi-scale feature fusion and attention mechanism MFA Framework in this paper can provide a new way of thinking for geologists in mineral exploration. The research of this paper also provides resource guarantee and technical support for the sustainable exploitation of mineral resources and the sustainable growth of society and economy.

Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) is one of the most important factors to consider when evaluating water contamination. BOD5 is the amount of oxygen consumed in five days by microorganisms that oxidize biodegradable organic materials in an aerobic biochemical manner. The primary objective of this effort is to use microbial fuel cells (MFCs) to shorten the time required for BOD5 measurements. We created a regression artificial neural network (AI), and the predictions we obtained for BOD5 measurements were taken over 6 – 24 hours with an average error of just 7%. The outcomes demonstrated by our AI MFC/BES BOD5 sensor’s viability for use in real-world scenarios.

A time integration scheme based on semi-Lagrangian advection and Laplace transform adjustment has been implemented in a baroclinic primitive equation model. The semi-Lagrangian scheme makes it possible to use large time steps. However, errors arising from the semi-implicit scheme increase with the time step size. In contrast, the errors using the Laplace transform adjustment remain relatively small for typical time steps used with semi-Lagrangian advection. Numerical experiments confirm the superior performance of the Laplace transform scheme relative to the semi-implicit reference model. The algorithmic complexity of the scheme is comparable to the reference model, making it computationally competitive, and indicating its potential for integrating weather and climate prediction models.

The accurate prediction of molecular properties such as lipophilicity and aqueous solubility are of great importance and pose challenges in several stages of the drug discovery pipeline. Machine learning methods like graph-based neural networks (GNNs) have shown exceptionally good performance in predicting these properties. In this work, we introduce a novel GNN architecture, called directed edge graph isomorphism network (D-GIN). It is composed of two distinct sub-architectures (D-MPNN, GIN) and achieves an improvement in accuracy over its sub-architectures employing various learning, and featurization strategies. We argue that combining models with different key aspects help make graph neural networks deeper and simultaneously increase their predictive power. Furthermore, we address current limitations in assessment of deep-learning models, namely, comparison of single training run performance metrics, and offer a more robust solution.

Different machine learning models (multiple linear regression, vector support machines, artificial neural networks and random forests) are applied to predict the monthly global irradiation (MGI) from different input variables (latitude, longitude and altitude of meteorological station, month, average temperatures, among others) of different areas of Galicia (Spain). The models were trained, validated and queried using data from three stations, and each best machine model was checked in two independent stations. The results obtained confirmed that the best ML methodology is the ANN model which presents the lowest RMSE value in the validation and querying phases 122.6·10kJ/(m2∙day) and 113.6·10kJ/(m2∙day), respectively, and predict conveniently for independent stations, 201.3·10kJ/(m2∙day) and 209.4·10kJ/(m2∙day), respectively. Given the good results obtained, it is convenient to continue with the design of artificial neural networks applied to the analysis of monthly global irradiation.

This paper aims to provide an overall review of degradation, damage evolution and fatigue models in the literature of various engineering materials, mostly metals, and composites.

The sudden pervasive of severe acute respiratory syndrome Covid-19 has been leading the universe into a prominent crisis. It has influenced each zone, for example, industrial area, horticultural zone, Public transportation, economic zone, and so on. So as to see how Covid-19 affected the globe, we conducted an investigation characterizing the effects of the pandemic over the world using Machine Learning (ML) method. Prediction is a typical data science exercise that helps the administration with function planning, objective setting, and anomaly detection. We propose an additive regression model with interpretable parameters that can be naturally balanced by experts with domain intuition about the time series. We focus on global data beginning from 22^nd January 2020, till 26^th April 2020 and performed dynamic map visualization of Covid-19 expansion globally by date wise and predicting the spread of virus on all countries and continents. The major advantages of this work include accurate analysis of country-wise as well as province/state-wise confirmed cases, recovered cases, deaths, prediction of pandemic viral attack and how far it is expanding globally.

While lidar-based forest inventory methods have been widely demonstrated, prediction of tree diameters with lidar is not well understood. The performance metrics typically used in studies for prediction of diameters can be difficult to interpret and may not support comparative inferences between sampling designs or study areas. We evaluate a variety of lidar and k nearest neighbor (k-NN) strategies for prediction of tree diameter distributions using two indices which are easier to interpret and compare. The indices are based on the coefficient of determination (R²), and root mean square deviation (RMSD). These indices facilitate comparisons with alternative (non-lidar) inventory strategies, and with other project areas. We evaluate k nearest neighbors (k-NN) dbh density (relative frequency by dbh class) prediction strategies with lidar for 190 training plots distribute across the 800 km² Savannah River Site in South Carolina, USA. We evaluate the performance of k-NN with respect to distance metrics, number of neighbors, predictor sets, and response sets. Amongst the examined strategies we found Mahalanobis distance with k = 3 neighbors performed best according to a number of criteria.

This work addresses the intricate task of predicting the prices of diverse financial assets, including stocks, indices, and cryptocurrencies, each exhibiting distinct characteristics and behaviors under varied market conditions. To tackle the challenge effectively, a novel hybridized architecture, AE-GRU, integrating the encoder-decoder principle with GRU is designed. The experimentation involves multiple activation functions and hyperparameter tuning. With extensive experimentation and enhancements applied to AE-LSTM, the proposed AE-GRU architecture still demonstrates significant superiority in forecasting the annual prices of volatile financial assets from multiple sectors mentioned above. Thus, the novel AE-GRU architecture emerges as a superior choice for price prediction across diverse sectors and fluctuating market scenarios by extracting important non-linear features of financial data and retaining the long-term context from past observations.

Small peptides are an important component of the vertebrate immune system. They are important molecules for distinguishing proteins that originate in the host from proteins derived of a pathogenic organism, such as a virus or bacterium. Consequently, these peptides are central for the vertebrate host response to intracellular and extracellular pathogens. Computational models for prediction of these peptides have been based on a narrow sample of data with an emphasis on the position and chemical properties of the amino acids. In past literature, this approach has resulted in higher predictability than models that rely on the geometrical arrangement of atoms. However, protein structure data from experiment and theory are a source for building models at scale, and, therefore, knowledge on the role of small peptides and their immunogenicity in the vertebrate immune system. The following sections introduce procedures that contribute to theoretical prediction of peptides and role in immunogenicity. Lastly, deep learning is discussed as it applies to immunogenetics and the acceleration of knowledge by a capability for modeling the complexity of natural phenomena.

As cancer remains resistant to several modes of treatment, novel therapeutics are still under active investigation to overcome treatment inefficacy in cancer. Given the high attrition rate of de novo drug discovery, drug screening, and drug repurposing have offered time- and cost-effective alternative strategies for the identification of potentially effective therapeutics. In contrast to large-scale drug screens, computational approaches for drug repurposing leverage the increasing amounts of biomedical data to predict candidate therapeutic agents prior to testing in biological models. Current studies in drug repurposing for cancer therapy prediction have increasingly focused on the prediction of combination therapies, as combination therapies have numerous advantages over monotherapies. These include increased effect from synergistic interactions, reduced toxicity from lowered drug doses, and a reduced risk of resistance due to multiple non-overlapping mechanisms of action. This review provides a summary of several classes of computational methods used for drug combination therapy prediction in cancer research, including networks, regression-based machine learning, classifier machine learning models, and deep learning approaches, with the goal of presenting current progress in the field, particularly to non-computational cancer biologists. We conclude by discussing the need for further advancements in technologies that incorporate disease mechanisms, drug characteristics, multi-omics data, and clinical considerations to generate effective patient-specific drug combinations, as holistic data integration will inevitably result in optimal targeted therapeutics for cancer.

This research investigates the potential benefits of integrating machine learning algorithms and IoT sensors in modern agriculture. The focus is on optimizing crop production and reducing waste through informed decisions about planting, watering, and harvesting crops. The paper discusses the current state of machine learning and IoT in agriculture, highlighting key challenges and opportunities. It also presents experimental results that demonstrate the impact of changing labels on the accuracy of data analysis algorithms. The findings recommend that by analyzing wide-ranging data collected from farms, including real-time data from IoT sensors, farmers can make more informed verdicts about factors that affect crop growth. Eventually, the integration of these technologies can transform modern agriculture by increasing crop yields while minimizing waste. In our studies, we achieve a classification accuracy of 99.59% using the Bayes Net algorithm and 99. 46% using Naïve Bayes Classifier, and Hoeffding Tree algorithms. Our results indicate that we achieved high accuracy results in our experiments in order to increase crop growth.

For disciplines like biological science, security, and the medical field, link prediction is a popular research area. To demonstrate the link prediction many methods have been proposed. Some of them that have been demonstrated through this review paper are TransE, Complex, DistMult, and DensE models. Each model defines link prediction with different perceptions. We argue that the practical performance potential of these methods, having similar parameter values, using the fine-tuning technique to evaluate their reliability and reproducibility of results. We describe those methods and experiments; provide theoretical proofs and experimental examples, demonstrating how current link prediction methods work in such settings. We use the standard evaluation metrics for testing the model's ability.

We study the problem of predicting time series data using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in an online manner. Existing algorithms require model selection, which is time consuming and inapt for the setting of online learning. Using adaptive online learning techniques, we develop algorithms for fitting ARIMA models with fewest possible hyperparameters. We analyse the regret bound of the proposed algorithms and examine their performance using experiments on both synthetic and real world datasets

Several outbreak prediction models for COVID-19 are being used by officials around the world to make informed-decisions and enforce relevant control measures. Among the standard models for COVID-19 global pandemic prediction, simple epidemiological and statistical models have received more attention by authorities, and they are popular in the media. Due to a high level of uncertainty and lack of essential data, standard models have shown low accuracy for long-term prediction. Although the literature includes several attempts to address this issue, the essential generalization and robustness abilities of existing models need to be improved. This paper presents a comparative analysis of machine learning and soft computing models to predict the COVID-19 outbreak. Among a wide range of machine learning models investigated, two models showed promising results (i.e., multi-layered perceptron, MLP, and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system, ANFIS). Based on the results reported here, and due to the highly complex nature of the COVID-19 outbreak and variation in its behavior from nation-to-nation, this study suggests machine learning as an effective tool to model the outbreak.

Force reduction is one of the most important benefit of applying ultrasonic vibration on milling. However, most of studies so far are limited to experimental investigation. In the current study, an analytical predictive model on cutting forces in ultrasonic vibration-assisted milling is proposed. The three types of tool-workpiece criteria are considered based on the instantaneous position and velocity of tool center. Type I criterion indicates that there is no contact if the instantaneous velocity is opposite to tool rotation direction. Type II criterion checks whether the vibration displacement is larger than the instantaneous uncut chip thickness. Type III criterion considers the overlaps between current and previous tool paths due to vibration. If none of these criteria is satisfied, milling forces are nonzero. Then the calculation is performed by transforming milling and tool geometry configuration to orthogonal cutting at each instant. The orthogonal cutting forces are predicted through the exhaustive search of shear angle and calculation of shear flow stress on tool-chip interface. The axial force is then calculated based on tool geometry, and the milling forces in feed, cutting, and axial directions are calculated after coordinate transformation. The proposed predictive force model in ultrasonic vibration-assisted milling is validated through comparison to experimental measurements on Aluminum alloy 2A12. The predicted values are able to match the measured milling forces with high accuracy of average difference of 13.6% in feed direction and 13.8% in cutting direction.

Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, which are highly complex to model. The research on the advancement of flood prediction models has been contributing to risk reduction, policy suggestion, minimizing loss of human life and reducing the property damage associated with floods. To mimic the complex mathematical expressions of physical processes of floods, during the past two decades, machine learning (ML) methods have highly contributed in the advancement of prediction systems providing better performance and cost effective solutions. Due to the vast benefits and potential of ML, its popularity has dramatically increased among hydrologists. Researchers through introducing the novel ML methods and hybridization of the existing ones have been aiming at discovering more accurate and efficient prediction models. The main contribution is to demonstrate the state of the art of ML models in flood prediction and give an insight over the most suitable models. The literature where ML models are benchmarked through a qualitative analysis of robustness, accuracy, effectiveness, and speed have been particularly investigated to provide an extensive overview on various ML algorithms usage in the field. The performance comparison of ML models presents an in-depth understanding about the different techniques within the framework of a comprehensive evaluation and discussion. As the result, the paper introduces the most promising prediction methods for both long-term and short-term floods. Furthermore, the major trends in improving the quality of the flood prediction models are investigated. Among them, hybridization, data decomposition, algorithm ensemble, and model optimization are reported the most effective strategy in improvement of the ML methods. This survey can be used as a guideline for the hydrologists as well as climate scientists to assist them choosing the proper ML method according to the prediction task conclusions.

Mutual information between the brain state and the external world state represents the amount of information stored in the brain that is associated with the external world. On the other hand, surprise of sensory input indicates the unpredictability of the current input. In other words, this is a measure of prediction capability, and an upper bound of surprise is known as free energy. According to the free-energy principle (FEP), the brain continues to minimize free energy to perceive the external world. For animals to survive, prediction capability is considered more important than just memorizing information. In this study, the fact that free energy represents a gap between the amount of information stored in the brain and that available for prediction is established, where the latter will be referred to as predictive information as an analogy with Bialek's predictive information. This concept involves the FEP, the infomax principle, and the predictive information theory, and will be a useful measure to quantify the amount of information available for prediction.

Turnovers in the National Football League (NFL) occur whenever a team loses possession of the ball due to a fumble, or an interception. Turnovers disrupt momentum of the offensive team, and represent lost opportunities to advance downfield and score. Teams with a positive differential turnover margin in a given game win $70\%$ of the time. Turnovers are statistically rare events, occurring apparently randomly. These characteristics make them difficult to predict. This investigation advances the hypothesis that turnovers are predictable in NFL football. Machine learning models are developed to learn the concept: At any point within a football game, what is the likelihood that a turnover will be observed on the next play from scrimmage? Results presented suggest evidence to support the working hypothesis. Under certain conditions, both fumbles and interceptions can be anticipated at low false discovery rates (less than $15\%$). This approach may be useful to inform in-game strategies to mitigate the negative consequences of turnovers by an offensive team, or to maximize their probability by a defensive squad.