In order to investigate the size distributions and seasonal variations of carbonaceous aerosols (OC and EC), the carbonaceous species were collected and then analyzed by using a 9-stage Anderson-type aerosol sampler and DRI Model 2001A Thermal/Optical Carbon Analyzer on the typical industrial city Nanjing in Yangtze River Delta, China in the summer, autumn and winter of 2013 and spring of 2014. OC, EC, SOC and POC exhibited obvious seasonal variations, with the highest level in winter (39.1±14.0, 5.7±2.1, 23.6±11.7 and 14.1±5.7 μg•m^-3) and the lowest level in summer (20.6±6.7, 3.3±2.0, 12.2±3.8 and 8.4±4.1 μg•m^-3), and were mainly centralized in PM_1.1 in four seasons. The concentrations of OC in PM_1.1 varied in the order of winter > autumn > spring > summer, while EC ranked in the order of autumn > winter > summer > spring. In the PM_1.1-2.1 and PM_2.1-10, the concentrations of OC and EC decreased in the sequence of winter > spring > autumn > summer. The size spectra of OC, EC and SOC had bimodal distributions in four seasons, except for EC with four peaks in summer. The size spectra of POC varied greatly with seasons, exhibiting bimodal distribution in winter, trimodal distribution in spring and summer, and four peaks in autumn. The OC/EC ratios were 7.0, 6.3, 7.6 and 6.9 in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively, which demonstrated the abundance of secondary organic aerosols in Nanjing. The sources of carbonaceous aerosol varied significantly with seasons, and were dominated by vehicle exhaust, coal and biomass burning in PM_2.1, and dominant by dust, coal and biomass burning in PM_2.1-10.

In the paper the verification of forecasts of precipitation conditions measured by the standardized precipitation index SPI is presented. For the verification of categorical forecasts a contingency table was used. Standard verification measures were used for the SPI value forecast. The 30 day SPI moved every 10 days by 10 days was calculated in 2013-2015 from April to September on the basis of precipitation data from 35 meteorological stations in Poland. Predictions of the 30 day SPI were created in which precipitation was forecasted in the next 10 days (the SPI 10-day forecast) and 20 days (the SPI 20-day forecast). Both for the 10 and 20 days, the forecasts were skewed towards drier categories at the expense of wet categories. There was a good agreement between observed and 10-day forecast categories of precipitation. Less agreement is obtained for 20-day forecasts – these forecasts evidently “over-dry” the assessment of precipitation anomalies. The 10-day SPI value forecast accuracy is acceptable, whereas for the 20-day forecast is unsatisfactory. Both for the SPI categorical and the SPI value forecast, the 10-day SPI forecast is reliable and the 20-day forecast should be accepted with reservation and used with caution.

Radar observation data with high temporal and spatial resolution are used in the data assimilation experiment to improve precipitation forecast of a numerical model. The numerical model considered in this study is Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with double-moment 6-class microphysics scheme (WDM6). We calculated radar equivalent reflectivity factor using higher resolution WRF and compared with radar observations in South Korea. To compare the precipitation forecast characteristics of three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation of radar data, four experiments are performed based on different precipitation types. Comparisons of the 24-h accumulated rainfall with Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data, Contoured Frequency by Altitude Diagram (CFAD), Time Height Cross Sections (THCS), and vertical hydrometeor profiles are used to evaluate and compare the accuracy. The model simulations are performed with and with-out 3D-VAR radar reflectivity, radial velocity and AWS assimilation for two mesoscale convective cases and two synoptic scale cases. The radar data assimilation experiment improved the location of precipitation area and rainfall intensity compared to the control run. Especially, for the two convective cases, simulating mesoscale convective system was greatly improved.

The socioeconomic sectors increasingly rely on prompt and affordable tools to predict climatic conditions. This study uses a decision tree classifier model to identify similar monthly ENSO 3.4 indices from March 2001 to February 2011 through monthly historical ENSO3.4 indices (December 1950 – February 2001). Historical monthly ENSO3.4 indices were used to extract available high-resolution monthly historical precipitation grids (1950-2001) for Mexico and constructed monthly ensembles (March 2001 – February 2011 hindcasts). Formerly, a precipitation categorization of monthly observed and simulated precipitation (2001-2011 hindcasts) was employed. Thereafter, global vector data and spatial map assessments were performed seasonally (winter, spring, summer, and fall). Global KSS and HSS metrics indicated the model approach has skill, especially in the spring and fall. Spatial metrics exposed large areas with hit rates > 0.60 in winter and spring, though in winter and spring (dry seasons), it was due to the precipitation categorization hindcast and observed were within the first classification. Lower hit rates, but still acceptable (> 0.40), were detected in summer and fall (during the rainy season and at the end, respectively) because more precipitation classifications were tested and prone to miss. Spatial Spearman correlations provided specific areas of significant model performances and found that high hit rates during the winter and spring are spurious. Meanwhile, it was also found that during the fall the model approach is reliable in most of Mexico, followed by the spring, and in constraint areas in summer and winter across the country. It also appears that dominant ENSO neutral events followed by balanced ENSO cooling and warming events do not prefer the model skill. Overall, the empirical method shows promise (low-cost human and computational resources if ENSO indices expose certainty in its Lead months to forecast) and has the potential to be used in other developing countries influenced by El Niño phenomena.

An accurate and timely precipitation forecast is essential for water resources management in hydropower, irrigation, and reservoir control. The conventional methods are limited by their inability to capture the high precipitation variability in time and space. In the present work, a wavelet-based deep learning approach is adopted to forecast precipitation using the lagged monthly rainfall, local climate variables, and global teleconnections such as IOD, PDO, NAO, and Nino 3.4 as predictors. The method was tested and validated over the Krishna River Basin in India. Overall, the forecasting accuracy was higher using the wavelet-based hybrid models than the single-scale models. The proposed multi-scale model was then applied to the different climatic regions of the country, and it was shown that the model could forecast the rainfall at reasonable accuracy for different climate zones of the country.

Global climate change primarily affects the spatiotemporal variation of physical quantities such as relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, ambient temperature, and notably, precipitation levels. Accurate precipitation predictions remain elusive, necessitating tools for detailed spatiotemporal analysis to better understand climate impacts on the environment, agriculture, and society. This study compares three learning models: ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), RF-R (Random Forest Regression), and LSTM-NN (Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network), utilizing monthly precipitation data (in millimeters) from 757 locations in Boyacá, Colombia. The LSTM-NN model outperformed others, precisely replicating precipitation observations in both training and testing datasets, significantly reducing the root mean square error (RMSE) with average monthly deviations of approximately 19 mm per location. Evaluation metrics (RMSE, MAE, R², MSE) underscore the LSTM model’s robustness and accuracy in capturing precipitation patterns. Consequently, the LSTM model was chosen to predict precipitation over a 16-month period starting from August 2023, offering a reliable tool for future meteorological forecasting and planning in the region.

Purpose of research was to determine changes in optical quality for monthly disposable soft contact lenses (SCL) wearers with new and monthly worn SCL. Retinal straylight was assessed in SCL wearers using a C-Quant straylight meter. The study included 33 participants (age 22 ± 1.4 years) who wore monthly disposable silicone hydrogel contact lenses. Measurements were taken with month-old SCL that had been worn for no more than 4 hours. Participants then replaced the old lenses with new ones. After a 15-minute adaptation period, straylight measurements were taken with the new SCL. A questionnaire was administered to all participants, inquiring about vision complaints and the type of contact lens material used. The decimal logarithm of the stray-light parameter, log(s), was notably higher with month-old SCL (log(s) = 0.97±0.17) than with brand-new SCL (log(s) = 0.86±0.15), p < 0.001. The average increase in retinal straylight after a month of SCL use was log(s) = 0.11 ± 0.08. The questionnaire revealed that 35% of participants observed a reduction in visual quality after wearing the contact lenses for a month. Results showed that monthly disposable soft contact lenses could reduce visual quality when scheduled replacement time has been reached.

Tamil Nadu, a state in southern India, is bereft of any native milch or dual-purpose cattle breed and the state depends chiefly on crossbred cattle for milk production. As most (90 percent) of the milk production in the state was contributed by Jersey crossbred cattle, the genetic evaluation study was intended to assess the milk production traits viz., test-day milk yields (TDMYs), total milk yield (TMY) and 305-day milk yield (305MY) in these crossbred cattle reared under farmers’ rearing environment. Data on monthly TDMYs (TDMY1 to TDMY10) of Jersey crossbred cows (n=81,653) reared by the farmers over 24 years (1999-2022) were collected for evaluation. The influence of non-genetic factors viz., location (agroclimatic zones), period and season of calving, and parity on TDMYs, TMY, and 305MY were assessed, and the variance and covariance components for genetic parameters (heritability and genetic correlation) of the traits were estimated by the method of restricted maximum likelihood (REML) under multivariate animal model and by random regression model (RRM). The overall means of various TDMYs ranged from 4.98 (TDMY10) to 9.95 kg (TDMY2) and, for TMY and 305MY the means were 2480.33 and 2393.71 kg respectively. The heritabilities estimated by animal model for TDMYs were high and ranged from 0.39 ± 0.01 to 0.47 ± 0.01 and were fairly less variable throughout the lactation while the estimates obtained by RRM were medium to high and ranged between 0.28 ± 0.01 and 0.65 ± 0.02 for different days in milk (DIMs). The heritability estimated for TMY and 305MY were 0.48 ± 0.01 and 0.49 ± 0.01 respectively. The estimates of heritability in mid-lactation yields were comparatively little less than those at the beginning and the end of lactation. The high estimates of heritabilities for TDMYs, TMY, and 305MY obtained in the present study offered an ample scope for improving milk production through selective breeding. Genetic correlations between TDMYs estimated by animal model were positive and moderate to high, with a range between 0.47 ± 0.01 and 0.99 ± 0.00. Considerably higher estimates (0.97-0.99) were observed between adjacent TDMYs showing strong genetic associations. By RRM, genetic correlations estimated between DIMs were positive, except for a few estimates and the magnitude of genetic correlation decreased with an increase in the interval between the DIMs. The high genetic correlation observed between the TDMYs in early and mid stages of lactation with TMY and 305MY suggested that these test day yields could be used favorably for the early selection of cows for milk production which facilitates reduction in the generation interval and consequently increase the annual genetic gain for the milk production traits.

In this paper, the forecast horizon and solar variability influences on MHFM model based on multiscale decomposition, AR and NN models, are studied. This article follows the works published in [1] showing the performance of the MHFM using 3 multiscale decomposition methods and a forecast horizon equal to 1 hour. Several forecast horizon strategies and his influence on the MHFM performances are investigated. We show that the best strategy for a rRMSE variying from $4.43\%$ to $10.24\%$ is obtained for forecast horizons from $5$ minutes to $6$ hours. In a second part, the solar variability influence on the MHFM is studied. A classification based on a shows that the best performance of MHFM is obtained for clear sky days with a rRMSE of $2.91\%$ and worst for cloudy sky days with a rRMSE of $6.73\%$.

Climate change is a crucial issue of the 21st century, leading to more frequent and severe extreme precipitation events globally. These events result in significant social and economic disruptions, including flooding, loss of life, and damage to infrastructure. Projections suggest that extreme rainfall will intensify in the latter half of the century, underscoring the need for accurate and timely forecasting. Despite advancements in meteorological and climate models that offer high accuracy for various weather parameters, these models still struggle to detect extreme values, particularly for precipitation. This research examines the sensitivity of extreme precipitation events to temperature, based on the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, focusing on Thessaloniki, Greece. It also evaluates the effectiveness of reanalysis data in identifying extreme precipitation and explores how rainfall-temperature relationships can enhance prediction accuracy. The findings are vital for improving the estimation of extreme rainfall events and informing the design of flood-resilient infrastructure.

Precipitation patterns are critical for understanding the hydrological and climatological dynamics of any region. Sicily, the largest island of the Mediterranean sea, with its diverse topography and climatic conditions, serves as an ideal case study for analyzing precipitation data to gain insights into regional water resources, agricultural productivity, and climate change impacts. This paper employs advanced statistical physics methods, particularly Tsallis q-statistics, to analyze sub-hourly precipitation data from 2002 to 2023, provided by the Sicilian Agrometeorological Informative System (SIAS). We investigate several critical variables related to rainfall events, including duration, depth, maximum record, and inter-event time. The study spans two decades (2002-2012 and 2013-2023), analyzing the distributions of relevant variables. Additionally, we examine the simple returns of these variables to identify significant temporal changes, fitting these returns with q-Gaussian distributions. Our findings reveal the scale-invariant nature of precipitation events, the presence of long-range interactions and memory effects, characteristic of complex environmental processes.

Different machine learning models (multiple linear regression, vector support machines, artificial neural networks and random forests) are applied to predict the monthly global irradiation (MGI) from different input variables (latitude, longitude and altitude of meteorological station, month, average temperatures, among others) of different areas of Galicia (Spain). The models were trained, validated and queried using data from three stations, and each best machine model was checked in two independent stations. The results obtained confirmed that the best ML methodology is the ANN model which presents the lowest RMSE value in the validation and querying phases 122.6·10kJ/(m2∙day) and 113.6·10kJ/(m2∙day), respectively, and predict conveniently for independent stations, 201.3·10kJ/(m2∙day) and 209.4·10kJ/(m2∙day), respectively. Given the good results obtained, it is convenient to continue with the design of artificial neural networks applied to the analysis of monthly global irradiation.

Anthropogenic development can strongly influence natural river processes, leading to environmental changes that negatively affect important habitats and biodiversity, and consequently reduce economically important natural resources. This study investigated the effects of salinity intrusion on the habitat of the clam Corbicula japonica in the Seomjin River estuarine zone. We employed the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model, which incorporates topographic data and hydrological changes, to simulate salinity concentrations. Two salinity measurement facilities were installed in Seomjin River estuarine and operated to optimize the EFDC model. The results show that reduced flow rates due to intake have a negligible impact on the increased salinity. Maintaining optimal salinity (15–20 psu) during neap tides at the Seomjin River Bridge requires constant high flow rates, which poses significant challenges. Saltwater stratification is identified as the primary cause of pronounced salinity stratification, particularly during neap tides. Addressing this issue through river discharge and intake facility operation is challenging. Structural measures, including riverbed restoration and underwater barriers, are recommended to improve resistance to seawater intrusion. Future research should aim to develop scenarios to reduce salinity concentrations, quantify the reduction efficiency, and propose region-specific measures.

The Tibetan Plateau(TP) is known as ‘the water tower of Asian’, its precipitation variation play an important role in the eco-hydrological processes and water resources regimes. based on the monthly mean precipitation data of 65 meteorological stations over the Tibetan Plateau and the surrounding areas from 1961-2015,variations, trends and temporal-spatial distribution were analyzed, furthermore, the possible reasons were also discussed preliminarily. The main results are summarized as follows: the annual mean precipitation in the TP is 465.54mm during 1961-2015, among four seasons, the precipitation in summer accounts for 60.1% of the annual precipitation, the precipitation in summer half year (May.- Oct.) accounts for 91.0% while that in winter half year (Nov.- Apr.) only accounts for 9.0%; During 1961-2015, the annual precipitation variability is 0.45mm/a and the seasonal precipitation variability is 0.31mm/a, 0.13mm/a, -0.04mm/a and 0.04mm/a in spring, summer, autumn and winter respectively on the TP; The spatial distribution of precipitation can be summarized as decreasing from southeast to northwest in the TP, the trend of precipitation is decreasing with the increase of altitude, but the correlation is not significant. The rising of air temperature and land cover changes may cause the precipitation by changing the hydrologic cycle and energy budget, furthermore, different pattern of atmospheric circulation can also influence on precipitation variability in different regions.

The COVID-19 infections in Pakistan are spreading at an exponential rate and a point may soon be reached where rigorous prevention measures would need to be adopted. Mathematical models can help define the scale of an epidemic and the rate at which an infection can spread in a community. I used ARIMA Model, Diffusion Model, SIRD Model and Prophet Model to forecast the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan and compared the numbers with the reported cases on the national database. Results depicts that Pakistan could hit peak number of infectious cases between June 2020 and July, 2020.

Droughts have a substantial effect on water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems on a worldwide scale. In the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, droughts exacerbated by climate change are significantly endangering the region's agricultural sustainability and output. Conventional forecasting techniques frequently do not capture the intricate dynamics of meteorological phenomena associated to drought effectively, prompting the exploration of more advanced methodologies. This work utilises artificial intelligence, par-ticularly machine learning methods like Gradient Boosting and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), to enhance drought pre-diction in the Mekong Delta. The study utilises data from 11 meteorological stations spanning from 1990 to 2022 to create and evaluate Machine Learning models based on several climatic factors. We utilise Gradient Boosting and XGBoost algorithms to estimate the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and evaluate their effectiveness in comparison to con-ventional forecasting techniques. The results show that Machine Learning, particularly XGBoost, surpasses traditional approaches in predicting SPEI accuracy at various time scales. XGBoost demonstrates skill in understanding the complex relationships between climatic factors, with R² values falling between 0.90 and 0.94 for 1-month forecasts. The progress highlights the potential of Machine Learning in improving drought management and adaptation tactics, proposing the incorporation of Machine Learning forecasting models into decision-making processes to enhance drought resistance in susceptible areas.

This study presents a novel approach for quantifying the dynamics of monthly hydraulic geometry relationships in the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River by integrating leaf area index (LAI) data as an indicator of riparian vegetation. A comprehensive system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) couples traditional power-law hydraulic geometry equations with LAI, capturing the influence of erosion control on channel morphology. The periodic delayed response theory and automatic differentiation techniques are employed to enhance the modeling framework's capabilities. Calibration and verification demonstrate the models' effectiveness in capturing overall trends in discharge, width, and depth dynamics, outperforming traditional constant-parameter approaches. However, model predictive abilities are limited under extreme climate conditions due to training on normal climate data. Key assumptions, including the periodic delayed response theory's neglect of peak discharges, simplified representation of artificial cut-offs, and reliance on remotely sensed data with limited local validation, introduce uncertainties. The proposed modeling framework shows potential for broader application to other river systems with appropriate adjustments. Future research could incorporate additional environmental factors, integrate models across scales, couple with advanced simulation techniques, and expand stability assessments beyond the riverbed index. By addressing related challenges, this integrated approach lays a foundation for enhancing understanding of river morphodynamics and channel stability.

Long term Precipitation and temperature variations are one of the main determinants of climate variability of one’s area. The aim of this study is to determine trends variation in climatic elements of temperature and precipitation in the southern zone of Tigray regional state, Ethiopia. The station is assumed for the study of climatic records over southern zone of the region in detection for probable trends. The daily, monthly and annual precipitation totals and temperature observed at korem meteorological station were used for the period of 1981-2010 for Precipitation and 1985 – 2010 for minimum and maximum temperature. Summary of descriptive statistics and Mann Kendall test methods were employed for the observed data analysis to demonstrate any existence of possible trends. The main findings of the study indicated that the mean and maximum temperature had a general increasing trend; however, minimum temperature showed decreasing trend. In general annual temperature from 1985 – 2010 of the area showed a warming trend. Moreover analysis of the 30 years (1981-2010) annual precipitation showed a coefficient of variation ranging from 33.77 – 233 %. It indicated that the precipitation dissemination is not normal with large year to year variances.

This article presents the implementation of a model to estimate the future price of commodities in the Brazilian market from time series of short-term technical evaluation. For this, data from two databases were used, one referring to the foreign market (opening values, maximum, minimum, closing, closing adjustment and volume) and the other, from the Brazilian market (the price of the day), considering commodities, sugar, cotton, corn, soybean and wheat. Subsequently, the technical indicators were calculated from the TA-Lib technical analysis library. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was applied, records with low correlation were removed, and then the database was consolidated. From the pre-processed data, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks were used to perform data prediction at the one and three day interval. These models were evaluated using the mean square error (MSE), obtaining results between 0.00010 and 0.00037 on test data one day ahead, and from 0.00017 to 0.00042 three days ahead. However, based on the results obtained, it was observed that the developed model obtained a promising forecasting performance for all the commodities evaluated. As a main contribution, there is the consolidation of databases that can be used in future scientific research. Furthermore, based on its interpretation, it can assist in decision making regarding the buying and selling of commodities to increase financial gains.

With the growing size and use of night lights time series from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Day/Night Band (DNB), it is important to understand the stability of the dataset. All satellites observe differences in pixel values during repeat observations. In the case of night lights data, these changes can be due to both environmental effects and changes in light emission. Here we examine the stability of individual locations of particular large scale light sources (e.g. airports, prisons) in the monthly composites of DNB data from April 2012 to September 2017. The radiances for individual pixels of most large light emitters are approximately normally distributed, with a standard deviation of typically 15-20% of the mean. We observe geospatial autocorrelation in the monthly variations for nearby sites, while the correlation for sites separated by large distances is small. This suggests that local factors contribute most to the variation in the pixel radiances, and furthermore that averaging radiances over large areas will reduce the total variation. A better understanding of the causes of temporal variation would improve the sensitivity of DNB to lighting changes.

During the smelting process of AOD furnace, the unbalanced reaction of material will lead to the occurrence of splashing. It will not only damage the smelting equipment, but also seriously injure the personnel. In this study, first, the information of liquid level, audio information, and vibration information are detected by multiple sensors respectively. Then, the fused information is used to forecast the splashing. Finally, the multitasking fuzzy controller is used to suppress splashing. The results show that the method of forecasting and suppressing splashing can accurately forecast and achieve rapid suppression. Thus, the efficiency of smelting can be improved.

A major challenge for the dissemination, replication, and reuse of epidemiological forecasting studies during COVID-19 pandemics is the lack of clear guidelines and platforms to exchange models in a Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) manner, facilitating reproducibility of research outcomes. During the beginning of pandemics, models were developed in diverse tools that were not interoperable, opaque without traceability and semantics, and scattered across various platforms - making them hard to locate, infer and reuse. In this work, we demonstrate that implementing the standards developed by the systems biology community to encode and share COVID-19 epidemiological models can serve as a roadmap to implement models as a tool in medical informatics, in general. As a proof-of-concept, we encoded and shared 24 epidemiological models using the standard format for model exchange in systems biology, annotated them with cross-references to data resources, packed up all associated files in COMBINE archives for easy sharing, and finally, disseminated the models through BioModels repository to significantly enhance their reproducibility and repurposing potential. We recommend the use of systems biology standards to encode and share models of epidemic and pandemic forecasts to improve their findability, accessibility, interoperability, reusability, and reproducibility.

Droughts have negative impacts on agricultural productivity and economic growth. Effective monitoring and accurate forecasting of drought occurrences and trends are crucial for minimizing drought losses and mitigating their spatial and temporal effects. In this study, trend dynamics in monthly total rainfall time series measured at Cape Town International Airport were analyzed using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) and innovative trend analysis (ITA) were examined. Additionally, we utilized hybrid prediction method that combined the model with the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) technique, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the long short-term memory (LSTM) network (i.e. CEEMDAN-ARIMA-LSTM) to forecast SPI values of 6-, 9-, and 12-months using rainfall data between 1995 and 2020 from Cape Town International Airport meteorological rainfall stations. The results demonstrate the following essential points: (1) The trend analysis results of the total monthly rainfall values indicate a significant decreasing trend with the negative z-score (MK= -3.7541 and MMK= - 4.0773). ITA also indicated a significant downwards trend of rainfall in the study area. (2) As the forecasting horizon increases, the prediction accuracy of the models and CEEMDAN-combined models gradually improves, reaching their optimum performance at the 12-month horizon. (3) CEEMDAN efficiently stabilizes time-series data, resulting in greater prediction accuracy in the hybrid model compared to individual models at all timescales. (4) The RMSE and R2 values for the hybrid CEEMDAN-ARIMA-LSTM model at a 12-month forecasting horizon are 0.042 and 0.995, demonstrating the applicability of this hybrid approach for drought forecasting.

This paper presents a new and enhanced fusion module for the Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) that would objectively blend real-time satellite quantitative precipitation estimates (SQPE) with radar and gauge estimates. This module consists of a preprocessor that mitigates systematic bias in SQPE, and a two-way blending routine that statistically fuses adjusted SQPE with radar estimates. The preprocessor not only corrects systematic bias in SQPE, but also improves the spatial distribution of precipitation based on SQPE and makes it closely resemble that of radar-based observations. It uses a more sophisticated radar-satellite merging technique to blend preprocessed datasets, and provides a better overall QPE product. The performance of the new satellite-radar-gauge blending module is assessed using independent rain gauge data over a 5-year period between 2003-2007, and the assessment evaluates the accuracy of newly developed satellite-radar-gauge (SRG) blended products versus that of radar-gauge products (which represents MPE algorithm currently used in the NWS operations) over two regions: I) inside radar effective coverage and II) immediately outside radar coverage. The outcomes of the evaluation indicate a) ingest of SQPE over areas within effective radar coverage improve the quality of QPE by mitigating the errors in radar estimates in region I; and b) blending of radar, gauge, and satellite estimates over region II leads to reduction of errors relative to bias-corrected SQPE. In addition, the new module alleviates the discontinuities along the boundaries of radar effective coverage otherwise seen when SQPE is used directly to fill the areas outside of effective radar coverage.

Background: Many clinical conditions are affected by meteorological factors and climate changes. Psychiatric disorders are large contributors to the global disease burden, but the literature on the impact of climate changes on mental health is limited. The aim of this study is to investigate the correlation between rising temperatures and admissions for acute exacerbations of psychiatric disorders. Methods: Data were collected for summer months of years 2013 to 2022. Mean monthly tempera-tures were obtained from the meteorological station of the Department of Physics of the Universi-ty of Turin. Data on patients admitted to the acute psychiatric unit of San Luigi Gonzaga Univer-sity Hospital (Turin, Italy) were extracted from the hospital registry. Linear regression analyses were used to investigate the correlation between temperature and number of admissions. Results: A total of 1600 admissions to our psychiatric ward were recorded. Mean monthly temper-ature and monthly number of admissions were directly correlated (P = 0.0020). The correlation between temperature and admissions was significant for the subgroup of admissions due to Bipo-lar Disorders (BD) (P=0.0011), but not for Schizophrenia (P=0.6070) (SCZ) or Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) (P=0.0588). Conclusions: These results confirm the impact of meteorological factors on mental disorders, and in particular on the course of BD. This provides new insights into etiopathological mechanisms and can contribute to improved follow up and relapse prevention.

Forecasting streamflow accurately is essential to achieve an efficient integrated water resources management strategy and provide consistent support to water decision-makers. We present a simple, low-cost and robust approach for forecasting monthly and yearly streamflow during the hydrological year in course, applicable to headwater catchments. It combines the use of regression analysis techniques, the two-parameter Gamma continuous cumulative probability distribution function and the Monte Carlo method. It is based on a probabilistic comparison of the progression of the current hydrological year with the historic observed series. The methodology has been successfully applied to two headwater reservoirs within the Guadalquivir River Basin in southern Spain. The root-mean-square error and correlation coefficient were used to measure the accuracy of the model and the results showed good levels of reliability. The outputs are the probabilistic monthly and yearly streamflow and 80% confidence interval. Further reductions in prediction errors may be achieved from increasing the number of observed years. These risk-based predictions are of great value, especially, before the intensive irrigation campaign starts (usually in April), when Water Authorities are to take responsible management decisions about the best allocation of the available water volume between the different water users and environmental needs.

Solar radiation is the main energy source for mankind and an accurate data of solar radiation levels for a particular location is vital for the optimum operation of solar energy transducers such as photovoltaic cells and solar thermal collectors. In this work, we show that there is a linear relationship between recorded monthly average temperatures and solar radiation in Swaziland. The correlation can be utilized to develop two mathematical models for the estimation of solar radiation: one from the measured monthly average temperatures and the other based on the square-root of the difference between measured maximum and minimum monthly average temperatures. Both models fit the data well and can be applied to estimate solar radiation in other parts of the region.

Photovoltaic (PV) generation is potentially uncertain. Probabilistic PV generation forecasting methods have been proposed with prediction intervals (PIs). However, several studies have dealt with geographically distributed PVs in a certain area. In this study, a two-step probabilistic forecast scheme is proposed for geographically distributed PV generation forecasting. Each step of the proposed scheme adopts ensemble forecasting based on three different machine-learning methods. In this case study, the proposed scheme was compared with conventional non-multistep forecasting. The proposed scheme improved the reliability of the PIs and deterministic PV forecasting results through 30 days of continuous operation with real data in Japan.

An optical fiber scale sensor based on the detection principle of surface plasmon resonance (SPR) was developed for the rapid, high-sensitivity real-time evaluation of scale precipitation from geothermal fluids. The optical fiber SPR scale sensor was fabricated by depositing a gold thin film on the surface of an optical fiber with an exposed core. The optimal gold film thickness of the sensor was determined to be 30 nm, which achieved a refractive index sensitivity of 2140 nm per refractive index unit. A field test was conducted using geothermal brine from the Obama Binary Geothermal Power Plant in Unzen, Nagasaki Prefecture. A conventional optical fiber scale sensor and the SPR sensor were simultaneously assessed using raw and pH-adjusted brines. For the SPR sensor, a peak shift of 0.27 nm/min was observed at a response time of 1 min, whereas no change in transmittance was observed for the conventional sensor until 180 min. After the experiments, scanning electron microscopy–energy-dispersive spectroscopy analysis was conducted on the sensors, and findings showed that the deposition of Mg–SiO2 scale did not significantly differ between the two sensors. The developed SPR sensor achieved faster scale precipitation detection (tens of minutes to hours) than the conventional sensor.

Rainfall, or more generally the precipitation process (flux), is a clear example of chaotic variables resulting from a highly nonlinear dynamical system, the atmosphere, represented by a set of physical equations such as the Navier-Stokes equations, energy balances and hydrological cycle among others. As a generalization of the Euclidean (ordinary) measurements, chaotic solutions of these equations are characterized by fractal dimensions, which are non-integer values that represent the complexity of variables like the precipitation. However, observed precipitation is measured as an aggregate variable over time, thus physical analysis of the observed fluxes is very limited. Therefore, this review aims to go through the different approaches used in the identification and analysis of the complexity of the observed precipitation, taking advantage of its geometry footprint. To address the review, it ranges from classical perspectives of fractal-based techniques to new perspectives at temporal and spatial scales as well as for classification of climatic features, including monofractal dimension, multifractal approaches, Hurst exponent, Shannon entropy and time scaling in intensity-duration-frequency curves.

The purpose of the evaluation of the Peruvian energy generation system is to project the electricity generation and demand until the year 2050. To achieve this, three alternative scenarios have been defined and analyzed using the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) software. The scenarios are as follows: the first one, Business-as-Usual scenario, based on normal trends according to historical data and referencing projections made by Peruvian state entities; the second one is focused on Energy Efficiency, the highlighted characteristic is taking into consideration the efficient conditions in transmission and distribution of electric energy; and the third one, centered on Geothermal Energy, focused on the development of this type of energy source and prioritizing it. The primary purpose of this analysis is to identity advantages and disadvantages inherent in each scenario in order to get the best of each one. In this way, the intention is to propose solutions based on Peru’s national reality or possible uses of the country’s energy potential to supply its energy demand. Currently, Peru’s energy demand relies on fossil fuels, hydraulic, and thermal energy. However, there is the possibility of transforming this system into a sustainable one, by strengthening existing and growing energy sources such as solar and wind energy, and new technologies for hydraulic and thermal energy, in addition to considering geothermal energy as the main energy source in the third scenario. The new system mentioned satisfactorily indicate that the CO2 equivalent emissions decrease significantly in the third scenario, with a 15.8% reduction compared to the first scenario and a 9.7% reduction in comparison to the second. On the other hand, the second scenario shows a 5.6% decrease in CO2 emissions compared to the first, resulting from improvements in technology and energy efficiency without requiring significant modifications or considerable investments, as in the third scenario.

How do sensor research and technologies grow over time? This paper applies the network analysis with a new computational approach to map the structure and evolution of sensor research and technologies over a 30-year time frame (1990-2020).The goal of this study is to analyze the evolution of sensor research for forecasting emerging scientific and technological trajectories. Results show that the scientific interaction within ecosystem (represented with networks) of sensor generates a co-evolution of scientific fields supporting the accelerated growth of different technological tra-jectories, such as: wireless sensors, fiber optic and optical sensors, gas sensors and biosensors. These results suggest main theoretical implications that explain the evolution of sensor research with critical aspects of innovation management to support R&D investments towards new technological trajectories having a high potential of growth.

Recent maritime legislations demand the transformation of the sector to greener and more energy efficient transportation. Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) seems a promising alternative fuel solution that could replace the conventional fuel sources. Various studies have been focused on the prediction of LNG price, however, no previous work has been made on the forecast of spot charter rate of LNG carrier ships. An important knowledge for the maritime industries and companies when it comes to decision-making. Therefore, this study is focused on the development of a machine learning pipeline to address the aforementioned problem by: (i) forming a dataset with variables relevant to LNG; (ii) identifying the variables that impact on the freight price of LNG carrier; (iii) developing and evaluating regression models for short and mid-term forecast. The results showed that the General Regression Neural Network presented a stable overall performance for 2, 4 and 6 months forecast.

The predictability of wind information in a given location is essential for the evaluation of a wind power project. Predicting wind speed accurately improves the planning of wind power generation, reducing costs and improving the use of resources. This paper seeks to predict the mean hourly wind speed in anemometric towers (at a height of 50 meters) at two locations: a coastal region and one with complex terrain characteristics. To this end, the Holt-Winters (HW), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Hybrid time-series models were used. Observational data evaluated by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications-Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis at the same height of the towers. The results show that the hybrid model had a better performance in relation to the others, including when compared to the evaluation with MERRA-2. For example, in terms of statistical residuals, RMSE and MAE were 0.91 and 0.62 m/s, respectively. As such, the hybrid models are a good method to forecast wind speed data for wind generation.

Measuring bias is important as it helps identify flaws in quantitative forecasting methods or judgmental forecasts. It can, therefore, potentially help improve forecasts. Despite this, bias tends to be under-represented in the literature: many studies focus solely on measuring accuracy. Methods for assessing bias in single series are relatively well-known and well-researched, but for datasets containing thousands of observations for multiple series, the methodology for measuring and reporting bias is less obvious. We compare alternative approaches against a number of criteria when rolling-origin point forecasts are available for different forecasting methods and for multiple horizons over multiple series. We focus on relatively simple, yet interpretable and easy-to-implement metrics and visualization tools that are likely to be applicable in practice. To study the statistical properties of alternative measures we use theoretical concepts and simulation experiments based on artificial data with predetermined features. We describe the difference between mean and median bias, describe the connection between metrics for accuracy and bias, provide suitable bias measures depending on the loss function used to optimise forecasts, and suggest which measures for accuracy should be used to accompany bias indicators. We propose several new measures and provide our recommendations on how to evaluate forecast bias across multiple series.

The properties of the annual, semiannual and triennial oscillations (AO, SAO and TO) in the middle atmosphere have been investigated using the TIMED/SABER temperature data. The Lomb-Scargle and wavelet spectra were used to determine the dominant oscillations in the background temperature field. The AO is prominent at the mid-latitudes. The AO amplitudes present an asymmetry between the two Hemispheres, being larger in the mesosphere than in the stratosphere. The SAO dominates the tropical regions, with three amplitude maxima at altitudes of 45, 75, and 85 km. The SAOs in the upper mesosphere (75 km) are out of phase with those in the mesopause (85 km) in the tropical regions, which can generate an enhancement of 11 K at each equinox, contributing to the lower mesospheric inversion layer. The TO is significant in the tropical region, with amplitude being maximum at 35, 45 and 85 km. Result shows that there may be potential interaction by the TO with SAO at 85km at the equator. The relation between ENSO and TO has also been discussed. The ENSO signal may modulate the amplitude of the TO, mainly in the lower stratosphere. The real origin of the TO may lie in the wave-mean-flow interaction.

The high spatial complexities of soil temperature modelling over semiarid land have challenged the calibration—predication framework, whose composited objective lacks comprehensive evaluation. Therefore, this study, based on the Noah land surface model and its full parameter table, utilizes two global searching algorithms and eight kinds of objective with dimensional—varied metrics, combined with dense site soil moisture and temperature observations of central Tibet, to explore different metrics’ performances on the spatial heterogeneity and uncertainty of regional land surface parameters, calibration efficiency and effectiveness, as well as spatiotemporal complexities in surface forecasting. Results have shown that metrics’ diversity has shown greater influence on the calibration—predication framework than the global searching algorithms themselves. Besides being significantly better than other metrics, the enhanced multi objective metric (EMO) and the enhanced Kling-Gupta efficiency (EKGE) have their own advantages and disadvantages in simulations and parameters respectively. Especially, EMO that composited with four metrics as correlated coefficient, root mean square error, mean absolute error, and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, has shown relatively balanced performance in surface forecasting when compared to EKGE. In general, the calibration—predication framework that benefited from EMO could greatly reduce the spatial complexities in soil temperature modelling of the semiarid land.

The fidelity of the decadal experiment in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) has been examined, over different climate variables for different temporal and spatial scales, in many previous studies. However, most of the studies were for the temperature and temperature-based climate indices. A quite limited study was conducted on precipitation of decadal experiment and no attention was paid to a catchment level. This study evaluates the performances of eight GCMs (MIROC4h, EC-EARTH, MRI-CGCM3, MPI-ESM-MR, MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC5, CMCC-CM, and CanCM4) for the monthly hindcast precipitation of decadal experiment over the Brisbane River catchment in Queensland, Australia. First, the GCMs datasets were spatially interpolated onto a spatial resolution of 0.050×0.050 (5 km× 5 km) matching with the grids of observed data and then were cut for the catchment. Next, model outputs are evaluated for temporal skills, dry and wet periods, and total precipitation (over time and space) based on the observed values. Skill test results reveal that model performances varied over the initialization years and showed comparatively higher scores from the initialization year 1990 and onward. Models with finer spatial resolutions show comparatively better performances as opposed to the models of coarse spatial resolutions where MIROC4h outperformed followed by EC-EARTH and MRI-CGCM3. Comparing the skills, models are divided into three categories (Category-I: MIROC4h, EC-EARTH, and MRI-CGCM3; Category-II: MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR; and Category-III: MIROC5, CanCM4, and CMCC-CM). Three multimodel ensembles’ mean (MMEMs) are formed using the arithmetic mean of Category-I (MMEM1), Category-I and II (MMEM2), and all eight models (MMEM3). The performances of MMEMs are also assessed using the same skill tests and MMEM2 performed best which suggests evaluating the models before the formation of MMEM.

Precipitation plays vital role in the economy of agricultural country like Pakistan. Baluchistan being the largest province of Pakistan in term of land is facing reoccurring droughts as well as flashflood due unprecedent torrential precipitation pattern.

The aim of this technical note is to describe the Cycle 46 reference configuration of the HARMONIE-AROME convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. HARMONIE-AROME is a configuration of the shared ALADIN-HIRLAM system, which is developed, maintained, and validated in the ACCORD consortium, a collaboration of 26 countries in Europe and northern Africa on short-range mesoscale NWP. This technical note describes updates to the physical parametrizations, both upper-air and surface, configuration choices such as lateral boundary conditions, model levels, horizontal resolution, model time step and databases associated with the model, such as for physiography and aerosols. An outlook on upcoming developments is also included.

: Innovative solutions are now being researched to manage the ever-increasing amount of data required to optimize the performance of internal combustion engines. Machine Learning ap-proaches have shown to be a valuable tool for signal prediction due to their real-time and cost-effective deployment. Among them, the architecture consisting of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and one-dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks (1DCNN) has emerged as a highly promising and effective option for replacing the role of physical sensors. The architecture com-bines the capacity of LSTM to detect patterns and relationships in smaller segments of the signal with the ability of 1DCNN to detect patterns and relationships in larger segments of the signal. The purpose of this work is to assess the feasibility of substituting a physical device dedicated to calculating the torque supplied by a spark-ignition engine. The suggested architecture was trained and tested using signals from the field during a test campaign conducted under transient operating conditions. The results reveal that LSTM+1DCNN is particularly well suited for signal prediction with considerable variability. It constantly outperforms other architectures used for comparison, with average error percentages of less than 2%, proving the architecture's ability to replace physical sensors.

Predicting electricity prices is a very important issue in modern society, because the associated decision process under uncertainty requires accurate forecasts for the economic agents involved. In this paper, we apply the decision tree extension of Random Forests to the prediction of electricity prices in Spain, but with the novelty of modeling prices jointly with demand, with the purpose of achieving greater accuracy than with univariate response Random Forests, particularly in price prediction, as well as understanding the effect of the input variables (lagged values of price and demand, current production levels of available energy sources) on the joint of the two outputs. The results are very encouraging, providing significant increase in price prediction accuracy. Also, interesting methodological challenges appear as far as the appropriate choice of the relative weights of price and demand in the joint modeling is concerned and a new procedure to provide the importance variable ranking is proposed. The partykit (package of R software) library allowing for multivariate Random Forests has been used.

The growing concerns about floods have highlighted the need for accurate and detailed precipitation data as extreme precipitation occurrences can lead to catastrophic floods, resulting in significant economic losses and casualties. Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM-IMERG) is a commonly used high-resolution gridded precipitation dataset and is recognized as trustworthy alternative sources of precipitation data. The aim of this study is to comprehensively evaluate the performance of GPM IMERG Early (IMERG-E), Late (IMERG-L), and Run Final (IMERG-F) in precipitation estimation and their capability in detecting extreme rainfall indices over southwestern Iran during 2001-2020. The Asfezari gridded precipitation data which are developed using a dense of ground-based observation were utilized as the reference dataset. The findings indicate that the IMERG-F performs reasonably well in capturing many extreme precipitation events (defined by various indices). All the three products showed a better performance in capturing fixed and non-threshold precipitation indices across the study region. The findings also revealed that both IMERG-E and IMERG-L have problems in rainfall estimation over elevated areas showing values of overestimations. Examining the effect of land cover type on the accuracy of the precipitation products suggest that both IMERG-E and IMERG-L show large and highly unrealistic overestimations over inland water bodies and permanent wetlands. The results of the current study highlight the potential of IMERG-F as a valuable source of data for precipitation monitoring in the region.

The study of precipitation amount at different time scales constitutes an important issue in climate research and risk assessment. When dealing with daily totals, a frequent but sometimes underestimated problem is at what time the observation day begins. The choice of different starting times may lead to incompatibility between stations and incorrect identification of extreme events. In this work, the problem of temporal misalignment between precipitation datasets characterized by different starting time of the observation day is analyzed. The most widely used adjustment methods (1day and uniform shift) and two methods based on reanalysis (NOAA and ERA5) are evaluated in terms of temporal alignment, precipitation statistics and percentile distributions. As test series, the precipitation amount collected from 9 a.m. local time (09 LT) on the previous day to 09 LT on the target day (9-9 datasets) of the Padua and nearby stations in the period 1993-2022 have been selected. Results show that the reanalysis-based methods, in particular ERA5, outperform the others in temporal alignment, regardless the station. But, for the periods in which reanalysis data are not available, “1day” method, which shifts the daily amount back one calendar day, and “unif” method, which distributes uniformly the daily total from a 2-day moving window surrounding the target date, can be considered valid alternatives. On the other side, concerning the precipitation statistics, the reanalysis-based methods are not the best option, as they increase the precipitation frequency and reduce the mean value over wet days, NOAA much more than ERA5. Nevertheless, the uniform method provides a larger deviation from the original daily series. The use of the series of a station nearby the target one, which is mandatory in case of missing data, gives similar or better results than applying any adjustment method to the 9-9 series. General conclusions can hardly be drawn as they depend on the method and station. For the Padua dataset, the analysis was repeated at monthly and seasonal resolution. In general, the adjustment series show the most relevant changes in the precipitation statistics in summer and less temporal alignment with the original series in summer and autumn, the two seasons mainly affected by heavy rains in Padua. Finally, the percentiles distribution, analyzed for all the methods and stations, indicates that any adjustment method underestimates the percentile values, except ERA5. Only Legnaro, the station most correlated with Padua, gives results like ERA5.

This study explores the use of satellite-based LULC (Land Use / Land Cover) data while simultaneously correcting potential evapotranspiration (PET) input with Leaf Area Index (LAI) to increase the performance of a physically distributed hydrologic model. The mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) was selected for this purpose due to its unique features. Since LAI input informs the model about vegetation dynamics, we incorporated the LAI based PET correction option together with multi-year LULC data. The Globcover land cover data was selected for the single land cover cases, and hybrid of CORINE (coordination of information on the environment) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) land cover datasets were chosen for the cases with multiple land cover datasets. These two datasets complement each other since MODIS has no separate forest class but more frequent (yearly) observations than CORINE. Calibration period spans from 1990 to 2006 and corresponding NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) values varies between 0.23 and 0.42, while the validation period spans from 2007 to 2010 and corresponding NSE values are between 0.13 and 0.39. The results revealed that the best performance is obtained when multiple land cover datasets are provided to the model and LAI data is used to correct PET, instead of default aspect-based PET correction in mHM. This study suggests that to minimize errors due to parameter uncertainties in physically distributed hydrologic models, adequate information can be supplied to the model with care taken to avoid over-parameterizing the model.

The paper presents an assessment of the growth dynamics of the modal fir plantations in the Lower Angara region. At present, a vast area of fir forests in the Lower Angara region is characterised by a significant decrease in sustainability due to periodic forest fires, insect pests outbreaks and diseases, which lead to their natural degradation and death. However, the intensity of coniferous stand growth in certain forest site characteristics persists in the long term. Therefore, creating regression models of forest growth and development involving the identification of site conditions is very important both from a practical point of view and for environmental monitoring. The materials of the mass inventory of 3491 stands served as the initial data for studying the processes of fir plantations natural growth. The Hoerl Model function is suitable for the best approximation of stand growth since it is characterised by high levelling factor (from 0.970 to 0.987) and a small standard error (not exceeding 7%). As a result of the research, there have been constructed sketches of the growth rate tables for the modal Siberian fir stands of the third bonitet class of the forb and mossy groups of forest types.

Precipitation is a crucial driver for many environmental processes and weather radars are capable of providing precipitation information with high spatial and temporal resolution. However, radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) are also subject to various potential uncertainties. This study explores the development, uncertainties and potentials of the hourly operational German radar-based and gauge-adjusted QPE called RADOLAN and its reanalysed radar climatology dataset named RADKLIM in comparison to ground-truth rain gauge data. The precipitation datasets are statistically analysed across various time scales ranging from annual and seasonal aggregations to hourly rainfall intensities in regard to their capability to map long-term precipitation distribution, to detect low intensity rainfall and to capture heavy rainfall. Moreover, the impacts of season, orography and distance from the radar on long-term precipitation sums are examined in order to evaluate dataset performance and to describe inherent biases. Results revealed that both radar products tend to underestimate total precipitation sums and particularly high intensity rainfall. But our analyses also showed significant improvements throughout the RADOLAN time series as well as major advances through the climatologic reanalysis regarding the correction of typical radar artefacts, orographic and winter precipitation as well as range-dependent attenuation.

With advances in the development of autonomous vehicles (AVs), more attention has been paid to the effects caused by adverse weather conditions on them. It is well known that the performance of self-driving vehicles is reduced when they are exposed to stressors that impair visibility or generate water or snow accumulation on sensor surfaces. This paper proposes a model to quantify weather precipitation, such as rain and snow, perceived by moving vehicles based on outdoor data. The modelling covers a wide range of parameters, such as varying wind direction and realistic particle size distributions. The model allows the calculation of precipitation intensity on inclined surfaces of different orientations and on a circular driving path. The modelling results were partially validated against direct measurements carried out by a test vehicle. The model outputs showed strong correlation with the experimental data for both rain and snow. Mitigation strategies for heavy precipitation on vehicles can be developed and correlations between precipitation rate and accumulation level can be traced using the presented analytical model. Dimensional Analysis of the problem has highlighted the critical parameters that can help the design of future experiments. The obtained results highlight the importance of the angle of the sensing surface on the perceived precipitation level. The proposed model is used to analyze optimal orientations for minimization of the precipitation flux, which can help to determine the positioning of sensors on the surface of autonomous vehicles.

Observation of the ambient aerosol surface area concentrations is important to understand the aerosol toxicity because an increased surface area may be able to act as an enhanced reaction interface for certain reactions between aerosol particles and biological cells, as well as an augmented carrier surface for co-pollutants. In this study, the concentration of aerosol surface area was measured from April 2015 to March 2016 in Fukuoka, Japan. We investigated the monthly and diurnal variations in the correlations between the aerosol surface area and black carbon (BC) and sulfate concentrations. Throughout the year, aerosol surface area concentration was strongly correlated with the concentrations of BC, which has relatively large surface area since BC particles are usually submicron agglomerates consisting of much smaller (tens of nanometers) sized primary soot particles. The slopes of the regression between the aerosol surface area and BC concentrations was highest in August and September 2015. This appears to have been the results of an increase in the proportion of the airmass that originated on the main islands of Japan. This may enhance the introduction of the BC from the main islands of Japan that is relatively fresh (or “uncoated”), thereby maintaining its larger surface area.

Accurate monthly runoff estimation is fundamental in water resources management, planning, and development, resulting in preventing and reducing water-related problems, such as flooding and drought. This article evaluates the performance of the monthly hydrological rainfall-runoff model, GR2M model, in Thailand's southern basins. The GR2M model requires only two parameters, and no prior research has been reported on its application in this region. The 37 runoff stations, which are distributively located in three sub-watersheds of Thailand's southern region, namely; Thale Sap Songkhla, Peninsular-East Coast, and Peninsular-West Coast, were selected as study cases. The available monthly hydrological data of runoff, rainfall, air temperature from the Royal Irrigation Department (RID) and the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) were collected and analyzed. Thornthwaite method was utilized for the determination of evapotranspiration. The model's performance was conducted using three statistical indices: Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Correlation Coefficient (r), and Overall Index (OPI). The model's calibration results for 37 runoff stations gave the average of NSE, r, and OPI of 0.637, 0.825, and 0.757, and those values for verification of 0.465, 0.750, and 0.639, respectively. It indicated a model's acceptable performance and could apply the GR2M model for determining monthly runoff variation in this region. The spatial distribution of X1 and X2 values was conducted by using IDW method. It was susceptible to the X1 value and X2 value of approximately more than 0.90 gave the higher model's performance.

BackgroundThe novel virus COVID-19, also known as SARS-CoV‑2, is currently rapidly spreading around the globe and pushing healthcare systems to the limits of their capacity. One of the functions of predictive models is to timely act for epidemic preparedness including hospital preparedness. In Egypt, like many other countries in the world, the epidemic situation and forecasting have not yet sufficiently studied. ObjectiveThe study was carried out to develop a short-term forecast scenario for the COVID-19 epidemic situation in Egypt and predict the hospital needs to accommodate the growing number of cases.MethodsSecondary data from the COVID-2019 daily reports and the report issued 8^th of April by the Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population were used. Due to the daily changing level of knowledge and data, the article reflects the status up to 18 April 2020. The prediction was based on the exponential growth rate model. For the depiction of the situation, the full length of the epidemic timeline was analyzed (from February 14^th till April 18^th). The growth rates and their rates of decline during the period from the 22^nd of March till the 18^th of April were calculated and extrapolated in the coming 7 weeks. The predicted hospital needs were assessed against the announced allocated resources.ResultsThe epidemic curve in Egypt is on the ascending arm as of April, 18. The active cases showed exponential growth from the start of the epidemic till April, 18. At the end of this period time, the recovery rate was 23.12% and the case fatality rate (CFR) was7.39. The case fatality rate median level during the last four weeks was 6.64. The active cases are expected to reach more than 20,000 by late May then starts to decline. The allocated regular hospital beds are predicted to show shortage by the time of the release of the paper. The intensive care units (ICU) beds and ventilators are predicted to show insufficiency on May 6.Conclusions: The COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt is expected to continue on the rise for the next few weeks and expected to start to decline late in May, 2020. Our estimates should be useful in preparedness planning. Serious actions should be taken to provide ICU beds and ventilators enough for the predicted number of cases that would need them, not later than the end of April. Mitigation actions have to continue for the coming 6 weeks or until the epidemic situation is more clearly seen.

In this study, we have first studied the trend in meteorological data from the Harmaleh, Vanai and Farsesh stations in the 50-year period in the Dez catchment area. The meteorological data will be then forecasted using SWAT and Mann-Kendall. Forecasting the results in the Mann-Kendall and SWAT model has been done using the code written in MATLAB software and RCP (4.5, 8.5) scenarios, respectively. Studying the results of the trend in the data of meteorological stations in this catchment area indicated that these two parametric and non-parametric methods have been used to determine trends in meteorological data. The results of the parametric method are positive in all meteorological parameters. Non-parametric method over a period of 50 years shows the presence of trends in the data. The comparison on the forecasting results at maximum temperature suggested that during summer, we will see an increase in temperature compared to the ground state in all three forecasts. The results of the minimum temperature forecast show a decrease in the minimum increase during the winter and the precipitation forecast indicates that at the end of autumn (Nov) precipitation decreased by 20 mm in the Mann-Kendall and 4.5 RCP while RCP8.5 suggests the increase in precipitation compared to the ground state. Studying the runoff forecast results using SWOT show that at the end of winter (Feb) and almost all spring (Mar, Apr) a decrease of about 40%, 15% and 14% will be seen, respectively

This study provides a unique procedure for validating and reconstructing temperature and precipitation data. Although developed from data in Middle Italy, the validation method is intended to be universal, subject to appropriate calibration according to the climate zones analysed. This~research is an attempt to create shared applicative procedures that are most of the time only theorized or included in some software without a clear definition of the methods. The purpose is to detect most types of errors according to the procedures for data validation prescribed by the World Meteorological Organization, defining practical operations for each of the five types of data controls: gross error checking, internal consistency check, tolerance test, temporal consistency, and~spatial consistency. Temperature and~precipitation data over the period 1931--2014 were investigated. The~outcomes of this process have led to the removal of 375 records (0.02%) of temperature data from 40 weather stations and 1286 records (1.67%) of precipitation data from 118 weather stations, and 171 data points reconstructed. In conclusion, this work contributes to the development of standardized methodologies to validate climate data and provides an innovative procedure to reconstruct missing data in the absence of reliable reference time series.

This paper presents the evaluation of a fungal disease forecast model in vineyards for qualitative parameter analysis using the data from off the shelf sensors, i.e. temperature and air relative humidity, rain precipitation, and leaf wetness. The rules for the fungal disease models are digitalized as a decision support tool that serve as an indicator to farmers for the need of spraying of the chemical substances to ensure the best growing condition and suppress the level of parasites. The temperature and humidity contexts are used interchangeably in practice to detect the risk of the disease occurrence. By taking into account a number of influences on these parameters collected from the shelf sensors, new topics for research in the multidimensional field of precision agriculture emerge. In this study, the impact of the humidity is evaluated by assessing how different humidity parameters correlate with the accuracy of the Botrytis cinerea fungi forecast. Each humidity parameter has it’s own threshold that triggers the second step of the disease modeling - risk index based on the temperature. The research showed that for humidity a low-cost relative humidity sensor can detect in average 14.61% risk values, a leaf wetness sensor an additional 3.99% risk cases, and finally, a precipitation sensor will detect only an additional 0.59% risk cases.

Following electrification of automotive transport, studies on the penetration of Electric Vehicles (EVs) are widespread, especially in defined contexts, e.g. cities. As major transport hubs, airports fall within contexts worth of interest. In this work, a forecast of the demand for electric mobility in an Italian international airport (Rome, Fiumicino) is presented. First, a wide review of proposed sce-narios on the penetration of EVs at international and national level and available data on local automotive transport are presented, as preliminary study for the definition of reference scenarios for the local context. Then the methodology proposed is presented and applied to the specific case study. Finally, a preliminary sizing of the required charging infrastructure is reported. The proposed approach can be considered as reference for similar studies on electrical mobility in other airport areas around the world.

The forecast of electricity demand has been a recurrent research topic for decades, due to its economical and strategic relevance. Several Machine Learning (ML) techniques have evolved in parallel with the complexity of the electric grid. This paper reviews a wide selection of approaches that have used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to forecast electricity demand, aiming to help newcomers and experienced researchers to appraise the common practices and to detect areas where there is room for improvement in the face of the current widespread deployment of smart meters and sensors, which yields an unprecedented amount of data to work with. The review looks at the specific problems tackled by each one of the selected papers, at the results attained by their algorithms, and at the strategies followed to validate and compare the results. This way, it is possible to highlight some peculiarities and algorithm configurations that seem to consistently outperform others in specific settings.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides crucial data on monthly and annual fuel consumption for electricity generation. This data covers significant fuels such as coal, petroleum liquids, petroleum coke, and natural gas. Fuel consumption patterns are highly dynamic, influenced by diverse factors. Understanding these fluctuations is essential for effective energy planning and decision-making. This study outlines a comprehensive analysis of fuel consumption trends in electricity generation. Utilizing advanced statistical methods, including time series analysis and autocorrelation, our objective is to uncover intricate patterns and dependencies within the data. This paper aims to forecast fuel consumption trend for electricity generation using data from 2015 to 2022. Several time-series forecasting models, including all four benchmark methods (Mean, Naïve, Drift, and seasonal Naïve), Seasonal and Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL), Exponential Smoothing (ETS), and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methods, have been applied. The best-performing models are determined based on Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) values. For Natural Gas (NG) consumption, the ETS model achieves the lowest RMSE of 20,687.46. STL demonstrates the best performance for coal consumption with an RMSE of 5,936.203. The seasonal Naïve (SNaïve) model outperforms others for petroleum coke forecasting, yielding an RMSE of 99.49. Surprisingly, the Mean method has the lowest RMSE of 287.34 for petroleum liquids, but the ARIMA model is reliable for its ability to capture complex patterns. Residual plots are analyzed to assess the models' performance against statistical parameters. Accurate fuel consumption forecasting is very important for effective energy planning and policymaking. The findings from the study help policymakers strategically allocate resources, plan infrastructure development and support economic growth.

This article presents a forecast model that uses a hybrid architecture of recurrent neural networks (RNN) with surface neural networks (ANN), based on historical records of exported active energy (EAE) and weather data. Two types of models were developed: the first type includes six models that use EAE records and weather variables as inputs, while the second type includes eight models that use only weather variables. Different metrics were applied to assess the performance of these models, and the best model of each type was selected. Finally, a comparison of the performance between the selected models of both types is presented, and they are validated with real data provided by a solar plant, achieving acceptable levels of accuracy. The selected model of the first type has an RMSE of 0.19, MSE of 0.03, MAE of 0.09, a correlation coefficient of 0.96, and a determination coefficient of 0.93. The other selected model of the second type showed lower precision in the metrics (RMSE = 0.24, MSE = 0.06, MAE = 0.10, Corr. Coef. = 0.95, and Det. Coef. = 0.90). Both models demonstrated good performance and acceptable accuracy in forecasting the weekly photovoltaic energy production of the solar plant.

The data assimilation method to improve sea fog forecast over the Yellow Sea is usually three-dimensional variational assimilation (3DVAR), whereas ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has not yet been applied on this weather phenomenon. In this paper, two sea fog cases over the Yellow sea, one spread widely and the other spread narrowly along the coastal area, are studied in detail by a series of numerical experiments with 3DVAR and EnKF based on the Grid-point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results show that the assimilation effect of EnKF outperforms that of 3DVAR: for the widespread-fog case, the probability of detection and equitable threat scores of the forecasted sea fog area get improved respectively by ~57.9% and ~55.5%; the sea fog of the other case completely mis-forecasted by 3DVAR is produced successfully by EnKF. These improvements of EnKF relative to 3DVAR are benefited from its flow-dependent background error, resulting in more realistic depiction of sea surface wind for the widespread-fog case and better moisture distribution for the other case in the initial conditions. More importantly, the correlation between temperature and humidity in the background error of EnKF plays a vital role in the response of moisture to the assimilation of temperature, which leads to a great improvement on the initial moisture conditions for sea fog forecast.

Precipitation type is a key parameter used for better retrieval of precipitation characteristics as well as to understand the cloud-convection-precipitation coupling processes. Ice crystals and water droplets inherently exhibit different characteristics in different precipitation regimes (e.g., convection, stratiform), which reflect on satellite remote sensing measurements that help us distinguish them. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory’s Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) together provide ample information on global precipitation characteristics. As an active sensor, DPR provides an accurate precipitation type assignment, while passive sensors like GMI are traditionally only used for empirical understanding of precipitation regimes. Using collocated precipitation type flags from DPR as the “truth”, this paper employs machine learning (ML) models to train and test the predictability and accuracy of using passive GMI-only observations together with ancillary information from reanalysis and GMI surface emissivity retrieval products. Out of six ML models, four simple ones (Support Vector Machine, Neural Network, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting) and the 1-D convolutional neural network (CNN) model are identified to produce 90% - 94% prediction accuracy globally for 5 types of precipitation (convective, stratiform, mixture, no precipitation, and other precipitation), which is much more robust than previous similar effort. One novelty of this work is to introduce data augmentation (subsampling and bootstrapping) to handle extremely unbalanced samples in each category. Careful evaluation of Impact matrices demonstrate that polarization difference (PD) and surface emissivity at high-frequency channels dominate the decision process, which are consistent with the physical understanding of polarized microwave radiative transfer over different surface types, as well as in snow and liquid clouds with different microphysical properties. Furthermore, the view-angle dependency artifact that DPR precipitation flag bears with does not propagate into the conical-viewing GMI retrievals. This work provides a new and promising way for future physics-based ML retrieval algorithm development.

This paper explores the use of different deep learning models for predicting precipitation in 56 meteorological stations in Jilin Province, China. The models used include Stacked-LSTM, Transformer, and SVR, and Gaussian noise is added to the data to improve their robustness. Results show that the Stacked-LSTM model performs the best, achieving high prediction accuracy and stability. The study also conducts variable attribution analysis using LightGBM and finds that temperature, dew point, precipitation in previous days, and air pressure are the most important factors affecting precipitation prediction, which is consistent with traditional meteorological theory. The paper provides detailed information on the data processing, model training, and parameter settings, which can serve as a reference for future precipitation prediction tasks. The findings suggest that adding Gaussian noise to the dataset can improve the model's generalization ability, especially for predicting days with zero precipitation. Overall, this study provides useful insights into the application of deep learning models in precipitation prediction and can contribute to the development of meteorological forecasting and applications.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology offers a national operational 7-day ensemble streamflow forecast service covering regions of high environmental, economic and social significance. This semi-automated service generates streamflow forecasts every morning and is seamlessly integrated into the Bureau's Hydrologic Forecasting System (HyFS). Ensemble rainfall forecasts, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Poor Man's Ensemble (PME), available in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) suite, are used to generate these streamflow forecasts. The NWP rainfall undergoes pre-processing using the Catchment Hydrologic Pre-Processer (CHyPP) before being fed into the GR4H rainfall-runoff model, which is embedded in the Short-term Water Information Forecasting Tools (SWIFT) hydrological modelling package. The simulated streamflow is then post-processed using the Error Representation and Reduction In Stages (ERRIS). We evaluated the performance of the operational rainfall and streamflow forecasts for 96 catchments using four years of operational data between January 2020 and December 2023. Performance evaluation metrics included CRPS, relative CRPS, CRPSS, and PIT-Alpha for ensemble forecasts and NSE, PCC, MAE, KGE, PBias and RMSE and three categorical metrics CSI, FAR and POD for deterministic forecasts. The skill scores CRPS, relative CRPS, CRPSS and PIT-Alpha, gradually decreased for both rainfall and streamflow as the forecast horizon increased from Day 1 to Day 7. A similar pattern emerged for NSE, KGE, PCC, MAE and RMSE as well as the categorical metrics. Forecast performance also progressively decreased with the higher streamflow regime. Most catchments showed positive performance skills, meaning the ensemble forecast outperformed climatology. Both streamflow and rainfall forecast skills varied spatially across the country – and were generally better in the high runoff generating catchments, and poorer in the drier catchments situated in the western part of the Great Dividing Range, South Australia and mid-west of Western Australia. We did not find any association between model forecast skill and the catchment area. Our findings demonstrate that the 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasting service is robust and draws great confidence from agencies that use these forecasts to support decisions around water resources management.

This paper proposes a non-extensive entropy econometric technique to predict energy efficiency at province (NUT-2) level based on imperfect knowledge of the national overall efficiency in the sectors of industry, transport, households and services. The model is applied to the polish case. As acknowledged in recent literature, non-extensive entropy model should remain a valuable device for econometric modelling even in the case of low frequency series since outputs provided by the Gibbs-Shannon entropy approach correspond to the Tsallis entropy limiting case of the Gaussian law when the Tsallis q-parameter converges to unity. Therefore, we set up a q-Tsallis-Kullback-Leibler entropy criterion function with a priori consistency moment and model data constraints, including province energy intensity (known with uncertainty), regional climate differentiation and regular conditions. The model outputs continue to conform to empirical expectations. In spite of the close to unity q-Tsallis parameter, this Tsallis related approach reflects higher stability for parameter computation in comparison with the Shannon-Gibbs entropy econometrics technique. The proposed technique can be applied in different EU countries and elsewhere for example in the context of experimental official statistics.

Financial bubble prediction has been a significant area of interest in empirical finance, garnering substantial attention in the literature. This study aimed to detect and forecast financial bubbles in the Vietnamese stock market from 2001 to 2021. The PSY procedure, which involves a right-tailed unit root test to identify the existence of financial bubbles, was employed to achieve this goal. Machine learning algorithms were then utilized to predict real-time financial bubble events. The results revealed the presence of financial bubbles in the Vietnamese stock market during 2006-2007 and 2017-2018. Additionally, the empirical evidence supported the superior performance of the Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network algorithms over traditional statistical methods in predicting financial bubbles in the Vietnamese stock market.

The increasing use of renewable energies as a source of electricity has led to a fundamental transition of the power supply system. The integration of fluctuating weather-dependent energy sources into the grid already has a major impact on the load flows of the grid. As a result, the interest in forecasting wind and solar radiation with a sufficient accuracy over short time horizons grew. In this study the short-term forecast of the effective cloud albedo based on optical flow estimation methods are investigated. The optical flow method utilized here is TV-L¹ from the open source library OpenCV. This method uses a multi-scale-approach to capture cloud motions on various spatial scales. After the clouds are displaced the solar surface radiation will be calculated with SPECMAGIC NOW which computes the global irradiation spectrally resolved from satellite imagery. Due to a high temporal and spatial resolution of satellite measurements the effective cloud albedo and thus solar radiation can be forecasted from 5 minutes up to 4 hours with a resolution of 0.05°. In the following there will be a brief description of the method for the short-term forecast of the effective cloud albedo. Subsequently evaluation results will be presented and discussed. Finally an outlook of further developments will be given.

COVID 19 has caused social distancing and lead to the reductions of various anthropogenic activities. Correspondingly this study has two fold objectives. First, aims to provide quantification measurement of social distancing impacts on air quality. Second, to forecast the air quality if social distancing is continued. The measured air quality parameters consist of NO₂, SO₂, and O₃. According to the results, the order of air quality parameters was NO₂<SO₂<O₃. The NO₂, SO₂, and O₃ levels were observed lower after social distancing than before social distancing was implemented. The reductions of NO₂, SO₂, and O₃ levels were 5%, 3%, and 5% respectively. Likewise, 65% of study periods (30 days) after implementation of social distancing have lower NO₂ than before social distancing. The exponential smoothing forecasts show the decreasing trends for NO₂ and SO₂. While O₃ levels are estimated will remain stable after social distancing. This study has shown that the social distancing has an impact on the NO₂, SO₂, and O₃. Correspondingly, if the social distancing is continued, then it is estimated can provide a positive impact on urban quality. Keywords: COVID 19, forecast, NO₂, O₃, SO₂.

In this paper, corticosteroid–β-cyclodextrin (β-CD) inclusion complexes have been prepared by Supercritical AntiSolvent (SAS) precipitation to enhance the dissolution rate of dexamethasone (DEX) and prednisolone (PRED), which are poorly water-soluble drugs. The processing of the active principles in the absence of a carrier led to the almost complete extraction of the active principle (the small amount of obtained material precipitates in the form of crystals). The coprecipitation of the ingredients in the presence of β-CD was investigated at different concentrations, pressures, and molar ratios. For both the corticosteroids, the optimized operating conditions were 40 °C, 120 bar, an equimolar ratio, and a concentration in DMSO of 20 mg/mL; these conditions led to the attainment of microparticles with a mean diameter equal to 0.197±0.180 μm and 0.131±0.070 μm in the case of DEX and PRED, respectively. The Job’s method confirmed the formation of inclusion complexes in correspondence with the 1/1 mol/mol ratio. Compared to the pure ingredients, the obtained powders have an improved release rate, which is about 3 times faster in both cases.

Observations collected during cold season precipitation periods at Utquagvik, Alaska and at the mul-tidisciplinary drifting observatory for study of Arctic climate (MOSAiC) are used to statistically ana-lyze relations among the atmospheric water cycle parameters including the columnar supercooled liq-uid and ice amounts (expressed as liquid water and ice water paths, i.e., LWP and IWP), the integrated water vapor (IWV) and the near-surface snowfall rate. Data come from radar and radiometer-based retrievals and from optical precipitation sensors. While correlation between snowfall rate and LWP is rather weak, correlations coefficients between radar-derived snowfall rate and IWP are high (~ 0.8), which is explained, in part, by generally low LWP/IWP ratios during significant precipitation. Corre-lation coefficients between snowfall rate and IWV are moderate (~0.45). Correlations are generally weaker if snowfall is estimated by optical sensors, which is, in part, due to blowing snow. Correlation coefficients between near-surface temperature and snowfall rates are low (r<0.3). Results from the Alaska and MOSAiC sites are generally similar. These results are not very sensitive to the amount of time averaging (e.g., 15-minute averaging versus daily averages). Observationally-based relations among the water cycle parameters are informative about atmospheric moisture conversion processes and can be used for model evaluations.

In this analysis, we assess the performance of GSMaP-GNRT6 data in capturing precipitation climatology and climate variability across China from 2001 to 2020. The evaluation involves comparing four precipitation indices of accumulated precipitation, the number of rainy days, rainstorm days, and precipitation maximum with the daily precipitation data from 2419 stations in China. The findings reveal that the GSMaP data effectively captures the overall spatial distribution of annual, summer, and monthly precipitation. However, it exhibits minor limitations in accurately depicting the spatial distribution of the number of rainy days from July to September and the precipitation maximum during wintertime in eastern China. While the GSMaP data depicts a coherent annual cycle consistent with the station observations, a general underestimation is observed. Notably, the GSMaP data presents a much smoother annual cycle in precipitation maximum. Regarding accumulated precipitation, the number of rainstorm days, and precipitation maximum, the GSMaP data shows an almost consistent interannual variation and increasing trends, aligning with station observations. However, it is noteworthy that the magnitude of the increasing trend based on the GSMaP data is greater, especially entering the early 21st century. Conversely, a significant discrepancy in the annual variation and an almost opposite changing trend are noticed in the number of rainy days between the GSMaP data and station observations.

This article presents an analysis of monthly precipitation totals based on the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre database and monthly mean temperatures based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data for 377 catchments located around the world. Data sequences covering 110 years from 1901 to 2010 were analysed. The long-term sequences of precipitation and temperature were used to assess the variability of climate extremes, referred to here as polarisation. Measures of polarisation used in the natural sciences are discussed. A simple measure of polarisation was presented and applied to long-term sequences of monthly precipitation totals and monthly mean temperatures. Due to the nature of the proposed polarisation measure, other characteristics of precipitation and temperature sequences are also presented as a background for the discussion of the polarisation index. The study showed the existence of trends related to the polarisation of temperature and precipitation phenomena. As a result of the analysis, trends of polarisation factors in the area of precipitation and temperature were identified in 11 catchments out of the 377 analysed catchments. The trend analysis used Mann-Kendall tests at a level of significance of 5%. The Pettitt test was used to determine the point of trend change for precipitation and temperature data. The whole investigation is supported by rich graphical analyses, and the results are presented in tabular form.

Extracellular vesicles (EVs) are enclosed by a lipid-bilayer membrane and secreted by all types of the cells under various physiological conditions. EVs play important roles in intercellular communication and crosstalk between tissues in the body. They are classified into three groups, such as apoptotic bodies, microvesicles, and exosomes. Exosomes were isolated from biofluids including blood, urine, milk, and cell culture media. Exosomes have significant potential for drug delivery and diagnosis. However, the method of isolation affects the physical and biological properties of exosomes. Several methods based on different principles have been developed for exosome isolation. These include ultrafiltration, precipitation, ultracentrifugation, size-exclusion chromatography, and microfluidics. In this study, we applied three common methods, such as ultrafiltration, precipitation, and ultracentrifugation, to isolate exosomes from the cell culture medium and investigated the effects of these different isolation methods on the size distribution and quality of the isolated exosomes. Field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM) images, size distribution, total protein content, and the effect of exosomes on the viability of hypoxic cells were analyzed in this study. The analysis revealed that compared to other methods, the ultracentrifugation method can isolate exosomes with smaller diameter (ranging from 20 to 80 nm), lower total protein content (50 µg/ml), and causing the increased viability of the hypoxic cells. The precipitation method does not require special equipment and is inexpensive, if the quality and purity of this method are solved, and it can be used as the best method for exosome isolation. This study can serve as a guide for choosing the best exosome isolation method for applications in medicine according to the needs, time, cost, and equipment.

Abstract The global concern about the leather industries is increasing as the leather industries grow bigger each year. These industries face a very challenging task with an increase in stringent pollution control regulation enforced by various bodies due to environmental concern and human risks. The chromium salts are the most widely used chemical for the tanning process in leather industries, about 35% of chromium used for the tanning process remain as metal and discharge to wastewater stream. The removal and recovery of this quantity of wasted chromium are necessary for environmental pollution control and economic reason. This paper sheds light on the chromium recovery and reuse system of Chromium salts in tanning wastewater by using NaOH as an effective chemical precipitation method to regenerate chromium solution, adapted chrome recovery plant, and evaluated the system technically and economically.

The impacts of climate change on precipitation and drought characteristics over Bangladesh were examined by using the daily precipitation outputs from 29 bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. A precipitation-based drought estimator, namely, the Effective Drought Index (EDI), was applied to quantify the characteristics of drought events in terms of the severity and duration. The changes in drought characteristics were assessed for the beginning (2010–2039), middle (2040–2069), and end of this century (2070–2099) relative to the 1976–2005 baseline. The GCMs were limited in regard to forecasting the occurrence of future extreme droughts. Overall, the findings showed that the annual precipitation will increase in the 21st century over Bangladesh; the increasing rate was comparatively higher under the RCP8.5 scenario. The highest increase of rainfall is expected to happen over the drought-prone northern region. The general trends of drought frequency, duration, and intensity are likely to decrease in the 21st century over Bangladesh under both RCP scenarios, except for the maximum drought intensity during the beginning of the century, which is projected to increase over the country. The extreme and medium-term drought events did not show any significant changes in the future under both scenarios except for the medium-term droughts, which decreased by 55% compared to the base period during the 2070s under RCP8.5. However, extreme drought days will likely increase in most of the cropping seasons for the different future periods under both scenarios. The spatial distribution of changes in drought characteristics indicates that the drought-vulnerable areas are expected to shift from the northwestern region to the central and the southern region in the future under both scenarios due to the effects of climate change.

The future of the Colorado River water supply (WS) affects millions of people and the U.S. economy. A recent study suggested a cross-basin correlation between the Colorado River and its neighboring Great Salt Lake (GSL). Following that study, the feasibility of using the previously developed multi-year prediction of the GSL water level to forecast the Colorado River WS was tested. Time-series models were developed to predict the changes in WS out to 10 years. Regressive methods and the GSL water level data were used for the depiction of decadal variability of the Colorado River WS. Various time-series models suggest a decline in the 10-year-averaged WS since 2013 before starting to increase around 2020. Comparison between this WS prediction and the WS projection published in a 2012 government report (derived from climate models) reveals a widened imbalance between supply and demand by 2020. Further research to update similar multi-year prediction of the Colorado River WS is needed. Such information could aid in management decision making in the face of future water shortages.

A forecasting scheme of the thermal updraft velocity based on a theoretical model and data collected from flights records at gliding competitions, is presented. The forecasting scheme was based on the hypothesis that there is linear relationship between the overheat function at ground surface and the temperature difference between soil and air. The proportionality factor of this relationship was determined experimentally using observations recorded during gliding flights. The results showed that based on this simple scheme forecasting thermal convection is possible at any geographical location.

One of the major problem of photovoltaic grid integration is limiting the solar-induced imbalances since these can undermine the security and stability of the electrical system. Improving the forecast accuracy of photovoltaic generation is becoming essential to allow a massive solar penetration. In particular, improving the forecast accuracy of large solar farms generation is important both for the producers/traders to minimize the imbalance costs and for the Transmission System Operators to insure stability. In this article, we provide a benchmark for the day-ahead forecast accuracy of utility scale PV plants in 1325 locations spanning the country of Italy. We then use these benchmarked forecasts and real energy prices to compute the economic value of forecast accuracy and accuracy improvement in the context of the Italian energy market regulatory framework. Through this study, we further point out some several important criticisms of the Italian “single pricing” system that brings to paradoxical and counterproductive effects regarding the need to reduce the imbalance volumes. Finally, we propose a new market-pricing rule and innovative actions to overcome these undesired effects of the current dispatching regulations.

With a mild Mediterranean-type climate, Corsica is endemic for canine vector-borne diseases (CVBDs) such as dirofilariosis (a mosquitoes borne-diseases: MBDs), leishmaniosis and ehrlichiosis. The aim of this present study was to evaluate a monthly multi-modal prophylactic strategy (MMP) against CVBDs occurring in Corsica. The study was conducted as a comparative field trial in which eighty dogs allocated into two groups were included: (i) Group 1 consisted of 25 dogs under the MMP [per-os administration of 1.5 tablet of milbemycine oxime-praziquantel and a topical line-on application of a 3.6 mL solution of dinotefuran-permethrin-pyriproxyfen] and (ii) Group 2 under various real-life prophylactic treatment (RLP) based on the use of ectoparasiticide products [different formulations: deltamethrin, fluralaner, fipronil] and/or macrocyclic lactones based-products [milbemycin oxime/praziquantel, milbemycin oxime, moxidectin] during the period ranging from June to October 2017. All animals were followed for one year and had blood drawn at day 0, followed by follow-up at 6 and 12 months. Samples were screened for filariosis using molecular tools as well as for leishmaniosis and ehrlichiosis using indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA). At the end of the study, no new cases of CVBDs were recorded within Group 1. In Group 2, the cumulative incidence of CVBDs was 20.0% (n= 11; p= 0.015) including dirofilarioses due to Dirofilaria immitis and/or D. repens, with 16.4% (n= 9; p=0.027). Ehrlichiosis was 5.5% (n= 3; p=0.241). No new cases of leishmaniosis were detected in Group 2. The data illustrated that, unlike the RLP treatment which failed to protect at least 20% of dogs, the MMP based on the concurrent administration of milbemycine oxime-praziquantel and dinotefuran-permethrin-pyriproxyfen is efficient to protect dogs against CVBDs in a high-risk area.

This study examines the improvement in coupled intercomparison project phase six (CMIP6) models against the predecessor CMIP5 in simulating mean and extreme precipitation over the East Africa region. The study compares the climatology of the precipitation indices simulated by the CMIP models with the CHIRPS dataset using robust statistical techniques for 1981 – 2005. The results display the varying performance of the general circulation models (GCMs) in the simulation of annual and seasonal precipitation climatology over the study domain. CMIP6-MME shows improved performance in the local annual mean cycle simulation with a better representation of two peaks, especially the MAM rainfall relative to its predecessor. Moreover, simulation of extreme indices is well captured in CMIP6 models relative to its predecessor. The CMIP6-MME performed better than the CMIP5-MME with lesser biases in simulating SDII, CDD, and R20mm over East Africa. Remarkably, most CMIP6 models are unable to simulate extremely wet days (R95p). A few CMIP6 models (e.g., NorESM2-MM and CNRM-CM6-1) depicts robust performance in reproducing the observed indices across all analyses. Conversely, OND season shows the overestimation of some indices (i.e., R95p, PRCPTOT), except for SDII, CDD, and R20mm. Consistent with other studies, the mean ensemble performance for both CMIP5/6 shows better performance due to the cancellation of some systematic errors in the individual models. Generally, the CMIP6 depicts improved performance in the simulation of MAM season akin CMIP5 models. However, the new model generation is still marred with uncertainty, thereby depicting substandard performance over the East Africa domain. This calls for further investigation of attribution studies into the sources of persistent systematic biases and a prerequisite for identifying individual models with robust features that can accurately simulate observed patterns for future usage.

The energy sector relies on numerical model output forecasts for operational purposes on a short-term scale, up to 10 days ahead. Reducing model errors is crucial, particularly given that coarse resolution models often fail to account for complex topography, such as that found in Costa Rica. Local circulations affect wind conditions at the level of wind turbines, thereby impacting wind energy production. This work addresses a specific need of the Costa Rican Institute of Electricity (ICE) as a public service provider for the energy sector. The developed and implemented product in this study serves as a proof of concept that could be replicated by WMO Members. It demonstrates a product for wind speed forecasting at wind power plants by employing a novel strategy for input selection based on large-scale indicators to enhance Artificial Intelligence-based forecasting methods. The product is developed and implemented based on the full-value chain framework for weather, water, and climate services for the energy sector introduced by the WMO. The results indicate a reduction of wind forecast RMSE by approximately 55% compared to the GFS grid values. The conclusion is that combining coarse model outputs with regional climatological knowledge through AI-based downscaling models is an effective approach for obtaining reliable local short-term wind forecasts up to 10 days ahead.

This study explores the effects of tempering on the precipitation behavior and impact toughness of high-nickel steel. The specimens underwent double quenching at 870°C and 770°C, followed by tempering at various temperatures. Advanced characterization techniques including optical microscopy (OM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) were used to elucidate precipitation phenomena. Additionally, electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) was employed to assess the misorientation distribution after tempering. Charpy impact tests were performed on specimens tempered at different temperatures to evaluate their toughness. The findings reveal that with increasing tempering temperature, the fraction of low-angle grain boundaries decreases, which correlates positively with enhanced impact toughness. The impact toughness peaks at 580°C and then diminishes with further temperature increases.

The article presents an analysis of monthly precipitation totals based on the GPCC database, and monthly mean temperatures (NOAA data) for 377 catchments distributed across the globe. The analysis included 110-year data sequences from 1901 to 2010 calculated from grid data with a spatial resolution of 0.5°x 0.5° longitude and latitude. Long-term sequences of precipitation and temperature were used to assess the polarization of climatic phenomena. The noticeable impact of polarization in the area of extreme changes in temperature and precipitation is related to anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation and pollution, which affect ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, water resources and economies. The paper demonstrates the existence of trends related to the polarization of temperature and precipitation phenomena. The measures of polarization used in science are discussed. A simple measure of polarization was proposed and applied to both long-term sequences of monthly precipitation totals and monthly mean temperature. Due to the nature of the proposed polarization measure, other characteristics of the precipitation and temperature sequences are also presented as background for the discussion of the polarization index. The paper presents, for a selection of several hundred catchments from around the world, analyses of the assessment of precipitation and temperature trends using non-parametric tests. The trend analyses use Mann -Kendall tests at the 5% significance level. A Pettitt test was used to determine the trend change point for precipitation and temperature data. The whole is supported by rich graphical analyses and the results are presented tabularly.

The objective was to estimate the monetary loss of potato producers up to the year 2100 as a result of temperature and precipitation impacts, taking into account the A2 and B2 scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The Pooled Production Panel Model was used, whose database was prepared taking into account climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) and agricultural variables (production, harvested area, farm-gate price) for the period 1996 - 2020, which form the independent variables of the study. The estimations used 60 observations and a total of 38 estimations were run in the econometric software EViews8, of which Equation 05 of the Production Pooled Panel Model was chosen as the best. The model obtained used temperature and precipitation forecasts from Brazil's INPE (National Institute for Space Research), validated for the study area. The results indicate a concave function between potato production (t/ha), temperature and precipitation. Finally, based on the A2 climate scenario, which is the most pessimistic and using the period 2021 - 2100, a loss for potato producers of approximately 8'927,521.48 million soles was estimated.

During the night between 9 and 10 September 2017, multiple flash floods associated to a heavy-precipitation event affected the town of Livorno, located in Tuscany, Italy. Accumulated precipitation exceeding 200 mm in two hours, associated with a return period higher than 200 years, caused all the largest streams of the Livorno municipality to flood several areas of the town. We used the limited-area Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, in a convection-permitting setup, to reconstruct the extreme event leading to the flash floods. We evaluated possible forecasting improvements emerging from the assimilation of local ground stations and X- and S-band radar data into the WRF, using the configuration operational at the meteorological center of Tuscany region (LaMMA) at the time of the event. Simulations were verified against weather station observations, through an innovative method aimed at disentangling the positioning and intensity errors of precipitation forecasts. By providing more accurate descriptions of the low-level flow and a better assessment of the atmospheric water vapour, the results demonstrate that assimilating radar data improved the quantitative precipitation forecasts.

Precipitation downscaling is widely employed for enhancing the resolution and accuracy of precipitation products from general circulation models (GCMs). In this study, we propose a novel statistical downscaling method to foster GCMs’ precipitation prediction resolution and accuracy for monsoon region. We develop a deep neural network composed of convolution and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent module to estimate precipitation based on well-resolved atmospheric dynamical fields. The proposed model is compared against GCM precipitation product and classical downscaling methods in the Xiangjiang River Basin in South China. Results show considerable improvement compared to the ECMWF-Interim reanalysis precipitation. Also, the model outperforms benchmark downscaling approaches, including 1) quantile mapping, 2) support vector machine, and 3) convolutional neural network. To test the robustness of the model and its applicability in practical forecast, we apply the trained network for precipitation prediction forced by retrospective forecasts from ECMWF model. Compared to ECMWF precipitation forecast, our model makes better use of the resolved dynamical field for more accurate precipitation prediction at lead time from 1 day up to 2 weeks. This superiority decreases along forecast lead time, as GCM’s skill in predicting atmospheric dynamics being diminished by the chaotic effect. At last, we build a distributed hydrological model and force it with different sources of precipitation inputs. Hydrological simulation forced with the neural network precipitation estimation shows significant advantage over simulation forced with the original ERA-Interim precipitation (with NSE value increases from 0.06 to 0.64), and the performance is just slightly worse than the observed precipitation forced simulation (NSE=0.82). This further proves the value of the proposed downscaling method, and suggests its potential for hydrological forecasts.

In this work we aim to experimentally study the nucleation and growth of CaCO3 phases precipitated from supersaturated aqueous solutions in the presence of varying concentrations of sulphate oxyanion. The experiments were conducted under pH conditions close to neutral (7.6) and considering a wide range of initial (SO42-)/(CO32-) ratios (0 to ~ 68) in the aqueous solution. We paid special attention to the evolution of the precipitates during ageing within a time framework of 14 days. The mineralogy, morphology and composition of the precipitates were studied by X-ray diffraction, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy and EDX microanalysis. The concentration of sulphate ions in the reacted aqueous solution was study by ICPs. The experimental results show that the mineral composition of the precipitate recovered in each run varied with the (SO42-)/(CO32-) ratio in the parental solution, which influences the mineral evolution of the precipitates during ageing. We observe that high concentrations of sulphate in the aqueous solution stabilize the vaterite precipitates and inhibit calcite formation. Furthermore, aragonite never precipitates directly form the solution and it is only formed via a dissolution-precipitation process in solutions with high (SO42-)/(CO32-) ratio after long reaction times. Finally, gypsum only precipitates after long ageing in those aqueous solutions with the highest concentration of sulphate. The reaction pathways during ageing, the morphology of the calcite crystals and the composition of vaterite and calcite are discussed considering both, kinetic and thermodynamic factors. These results show a considerably more complex behavior of the system than that observed in experiments conducted under higher pHs and supersaturation levels and lower (SO42-)/(CO32-) ratios in the aqueous phase.

In the modern world where research is taking a huge leap, the collaboration network between authors is also expanding, increasing the probability of different authors coming together to work on the same project, same research paper making them co-authors. In coauthorship, link prediction is used to anticipate new interactions between its members that are likely to occur in the future. Researchers have concentrated their efforts on studying and suggesting methods for providing effective reviews for authors who can collaborate on a scientific endeavor. In order to provide a precise link prediction, a graph database approach is proposed in this paper using nodes to determine most possible co-authors in future. In order to forecast the connections, we preprocessed the data set for the maximum relative contents. A supervised learning approach is used to execute the solution, which includes random forest classifier and logistic regression. The first findings of our technique reveal that the total of two author node’s research collaboration indices has the greatest influence on the performance of supervised link prediction than that of the traditional approach, which stimulates us to conduct further study on employing such a forecast.

This study aims at improving the forecast accuracy of primary energy consumptions in China, Japan and South Korea and verifying the correlation in primary energy consumptions among the neighboring countries. Considering the diversity of primary energy composition, this study selects 6 components of primary energy, including oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear energy, hydropower and renewable energy as characteristic variables. A collaborative prediction model based on SVR for primary energy consumption prediction is proposed to explore the correlation of primary energy consumption among three countries in China, Japan and South Korea. The results show that there is a strong correlation between primary energy consumption when multiple countries make collaborative prediction, among which the primary energy consumption of South Korea has the largest impact on the primary energy consumption of China and Japan. In the primary energy cooperation of China-Japan-South Korea, a primary energy cooperation system with the South Korea as the link should be established through regional coordination to alleviate the shortage of traditional fossil energy.

The terrain of Changbai Mountain has great influence on the distribution of atmospheric flows and the occurrence and development of precipitation. This study quantitatively analyzes the regional characteristic of topographic perturbations and the relationship between terrain, wind and precipitation in Changbai Mountain region, by using a spectral analysis of the two-dimensional discrete cosine transform. Three domains with relatively heavy summer precipitation are selected as the study region. The results indicate that the overall terrain of Changbai Mountain region exhibits anisotropic characteristics. The terrain spectra of domain B are less than those of domain A and C across the whole wavelength (λ) bands, indicating that the large-scale topographic perturbations of domain B are relatively weak. The largest topographic spectral peak of domain C shows the most pronounced undulation of terrain among the three domains. The dominant wavelengths of terrain height variance for domain A and C, both close to the respective maximum wavelengths, indicate more prominent large-scale topographic perturbations. For domain A, the variation of the precipitation spectra is consistent with that of the wind spectra at the wavelength bands of λ < 390 km, showing a high correlation between wind field and the occurrence of rainfall. The inverse relationship at larger wavelengths indicates that multiple factors contribute to the occurrence of rainfall. For domain B, there is consistency in the fluctuations of terrain spectra, precipitation spectra, and wind spectra at the wavelength bands of λ < 278.3 km, implying that the smaller-scale terrain has an important effect on the occurrence of summer precipitation. For domain C, the variations of terrain spectra, precipitation spectra, and wind spectra are almost consistent across the whole wavelength bands, indicating that the large-scale terrain and minor terrain both play a crucial role in atmospheric uplift and the occurrence and development of summer rainfall.

Elevated antimony concentrations in aqueous environments from anthropogenic sources is becoming of global concern, here iron oxides are known to strongly adsorb aqueous antimony species with different oxidation states, but the effect of silica on the removal characteristics is not well understood despite being a common component in the environment. In this study, ferrihydrite was synthesized at various Si/Fe molar ratios to investigate its adsorption and co-precipitation behaviors with aqueous antimony anionic species, Sb(III) and Sb(V). The XRD analyses of the precipitates showed two broad diffraction features at approximately 35° and 62° 2θ, which are characteristic of 2-line ferrihydrite, no significant shifts in peak positions in the ferrihydrite regardless of the Si/Fe ratios. The infrared spectra showed a sharp band at ~990 cm⁻¹, corresponding to asymmetric stretching vibrations of Si-O-Fe bonds which increased in intensity with increasing Si/Fe molar ratios. Further, the surface charge on the precipitates became more negative with increasing Si/Fe molar ratios. The adsorption experiments indicated that Sb(V) was preferentially adsorbed at acidic conditions and decreased dramatically with increasing pH while the adsorption rate of Sb(III) ions was independent of pH, however, the presence of silica suppressed the adsorption of both Sb(III) and Sb(V) ions. The results showed that Sb(III) and Sb(V) ions were significantly inhibited by co-precipitation with ferrihydrite even in the presence of silica by isomorphous substitution in the ferrihydrite crystal structure.

This study leverages the relationships between the Great Plains low-level jet (GP-LLJ) and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) to enhance the 30-day rainfall forecast skill in the Northern Great Plains (NGP). The assessment of 30-day simulated precipitation using the Climate Forecast System (CFS) is contrasted with the North American Regional Reanalysis, searching for sources of precipitation predictability associated with extended wet and drought events. We analyze the 30-day sources of precipitation predictability using (1) the characterization of dominant statistical modes of variability of 900-mb winds associated with the GP-LLJ, (2) the large-scale atmospheric patterns based on 200-mb geopotential height (HGT), and (3) the use of GP-LLJ and CGT conditional probability distributions using a continuous correlation threshold approach to identify when and where the forecast of NGP precipitation occurs. Two factors contributing to the predictability of precipitation in the NGP are documented. We found that multi-scale geospatial interactions occur at the daily and sub-seasonal time windows. The CFS reforecast suggests that the ability to forecast sub-seasonal precipitation increases in response to the enhanced simulation of the GP-LLJ and CGT. Finally, the multi-dimensional analysis of covariance reveals that high-precipitation forecasting skill is associated with a better prognostic of GP-LLJ and CGT.

In late/early 2019/2020, unprecedented high-water-levels were observed in Lake Victoria causing massive flooding in the low-lying lake-adjacent areas and disrupting human and natural systems in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB). The high lake water-level coincided with unusually heavy and prolonged 2019 June to December precipitation in the LVB. The current study estimates future precipitation patterns over the LVB using HighResMIP and ScenarioMIP general circulation model (GCM) simulations from the 6^th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Results show that HighResMIP and ScenarioMIP simulations can adequately reproduce LVB’s precipitation patterns – albeit with location-specific biases. Generally, the GCM simulations tend to over-estimate precipitation patterns over Lake Victoria while under-estimating precipitation patterns over the lake-adjacent areas. Projections show significant future precipitation changes over the LVB relative to the 1970-1999 baseline, with more pronounced changes over the lake than in lake-adjacent areas. Overall, mean annual precipitation is projected to increase by about 18% and 31% by the end of the century, under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Additionally, mean daily precipitation intensity (SDII) is projected to increase by up-to 14% while the maximum 5-day precipitation values (RX5Day) increase by up-to 71% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Heavy precipitation events, represented by the width of the right tail distribution of precipitation (99p-90p), are projected to increase by 50% and 94% under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Given that direct precipitation accounts for about 80% of Lake Victoria’s water budget, the lake’s future water-level fluctuations are likely to be more rampant and unpredictable under the changing climate. Hence, enhanced production and use of climate services is recommended to minimize the risk posed by potentially high water-level fluctuations in Lake Victoria and, ultimately, enhance the socio-economic safety of communities in the LVB.

Microalloying of low carbon steel with niobium (Nb) and titanium (Ti) is standardly applied in high-strength low-alloy (HSLA) steels enabling austenite conditioning during thermo-mechanical controlled processing (TMCP), which results in pronounced grain refinement in the finished steel. The metallurgical effects of microalloying elements are related solute drag and precipitate particle pinning, both acting on the austenite grain boundary thereby delaying or suppressing recrystallization of the deformed grain. In that respect it is important to better understand the precipitation kinetics as well as the precipitation sequence in a typical Nb-Ti-microalloyed steel. Various characterization methods have been utilized in this study for tracing microalloy precipitation after simulating different austenite TMCP conditions in a Gleeble apparatus. Atom probe tomography (APT), scanning transmission electron microscopy in a focused ion beam equipped scanning electron microscope (STEM-on-FIB) and electrical resistivity measurements provide complementary information on the precipitation status and are correlated with each other. It will be demonstrated that accurate electrical resistivity measurements can monitor the general consumption of solute microalloys (Nb) during hot working which was complemented by APT measurements of the steel matrix. On the other hand, STEM revealed that a large part of Nb-containing particles during hot working are co-precipitated with titanium during cooling from the austenitizing temperature. Precipitates that form during cooling or isothermal holding can be distinguished from strain-induced precipitates by corroborating STEM measurements with APT results. APT specifically allows obtaining detailed information about the chemical composition of precipitates as well as the distribution of elements inside the particle. Electrical resistivity measurement, on the contrary, provides macroscopic information on the progress of precipitation and can be calibrated by APT. The current paper highlights the complementarity of these methods and shows first results within the framework of a larger study on strain-induced precipitation.

The mixing of terrestrial groundwater and seawater creates dynamic reaction zones in intertidal areas, where land-derived Fe(II) is oxidized to Fe(III) and then precipitates as Fe hydroxides at groundwater-seawater interface. These hydrogeochemical processes contribute to the formation of iron curtains beneath soil surface, which in turn influences the evolution of coastal aquifers. This paper provides a comprehensive review of physical and geochemical processes at field scale in coastal areas, explores the impact of mineral precipitation on pore structure at pore scale, and synthesizes reactive transport modeling (RTM) approaches for illustrating continuum-scale soil physio-chemical parameters during the evolution of porous media. Upon this review, knowledge gaps and research needs are identified. Additionally, challenges and opportunities are presented. Therefore, the incorporation of observational data into a comprehensive physico-mathematical model becomes imperative for capturing the pore-scale processes in porous media and their influence on groundwater flow and solute transport at large scales. Furthermore, a synergistic approach integrating pore-scale modeling and non-invasive imaging can provide detailed insights into intricate fluid-pore-solid interactions for future studies, as well as facilitate the development of regional engineering-scale models and physio-chemical coupled models with diverse applications in submarine science and engineering.

Arid- and semi-arid Central Asia is particularly sensitive to climate change. The changes in extreme precipitation in Central Asia stemming from climate warming are the subject of intense debate within the scientific community. This study employed a Morlet wavelet analysis to examine the annual occurrence number of extreme precipitation in Central Asia from May to September during the period of 1951–2005. Their modulating planetary-scale climate modes were identified by using a linear regression analysis. Two major scales of the temporal variability were derived: 2–3.9 yr and 4–6 yr. The dominant variability was 2–3.9-yr scale and was associated with the negative phase of the Polar/Eurasia (POL) pattern. The 4–6-yr scale provided a secondary contribution and was closely linked to the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These planetary climate modes acted as precursors of extreme precipitation over Central Asia. The negative phase of POL directly contributed to a negative height anomaly over Central Asia, which was intimately related to extreme precipitation. In contrast, the negative NAO phase possibly manifested as a Rossby wave source, which was subsequently exported to Central Asia through a negative–positive–negative Rossby wave train.

Drought events are evident effects of climate change around the globe and yield several socio-economic impacts. Such effects are even more relevant for South America (SA) since different activities essential for the continent, like agriculture and energy generation, depend highly on water resources. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate future changes in precipitation and hydro-logical droughts occurrence in SA through climate projections from eight global climate models (GCMs) of CMIP6. To this end, statistical downscaling was applied to the projections with the Quantile Delta Mapping technique, and the method proved to be efficient in reducing systematic biases and preserving GCMs’ trends. For the following decades, the results show considerable and statistically significant reductions in precipitation over most of SA, especially during the austral spring, with the most intense signal under the SSP5-8.5 forcing scenario. Furthermore, GCMs showed mixed signals about projections of the frequency and intensity of drought events. Still, they indicated agreement regarding the increase in duration and severity of events over all of SA and a substantial proportion of moderate and severe events over most of Brazil during the 21st century. These results can be helpful for better management of water resources by deci-sion-makers and energy planners.

The horizontal storm structure surrounding lightning ignited wildfires is examined using Vaisala’s National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), NCEP’s Stage IV gauge corrected radar precipitation mosaic, and the US Forest Service’s Fire Occurrence Database. Though lightning flash density peaks strongly around fire ignitions on the instantaneous 1 km scale, on the hourly 10 km scale both the lightning and precipitation peaks are typically offset from fire ignitions. Lightning density is higher and precipitation lower around ignition points compared to non-ignition points. Both regression and horizontal distributions are consistent with the claim that positive flashes have a stronger association with ignition than negative flashes, but the statistical significance remains ambiguous

Various products of the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and passive mi-crowave (PMW) sensors are assessed with respect to near-surface wet-bulb temperature (Tw), precipitation intensity, and surface type (i.e., with and without snow and ice on the surface) over the CONUS and using Stage-IV product as reference precipitation. IMERG products include precipitation estimates from infrared (IR), combined PMW, and their combination. PMW products generally have higher skills than IR over snow- and ice-free surfaces. Over snow- and ice-covered surfaces (1) PMW products (except AMSR-2) show a higher correlation coefficient than IR, (2) IR and PMW precipitation products tend to overestimate precipitation, but at colder temperatures (e.g., Tw<-10oC) PMW products tend to underestimate and IR product continues to show large overestimations, and (3) PMW sensors show higher overall skill in detecting precipitation oc-currence, but not necessarily at very cold Tw. The results suggest that the current approach of IMERG (i.e., replacing PMW with IR precipitation estimates over snow- and ice-surfaces) may need to be revised.

Precipitation processes are technologies commonly used in hydrometallurgical plants to recover metals or to treat wastewaters. Moreover, solid-liquid separation technologies, such as thickening or filtering, are relevant unit operations, included in the precipitation technologies. These methods are strongly dependent on the characteristics of the solid precipitates formed during the specific precipitation reaction. One of these characteristics is the particle size distribution (PSD) of the solid precipitates which are fed into a solid-liquid separation process. Therefore, PSD determination is a typical practice for the characterization of the slurries generated in a precipitation plant. Furthermore, the precipitates generated in these processes have a colloidal or aggregation behavior, depending on the operational conditions. Nevertheless, the conventional methods used to estimate PSD (e.g., laser diffraction and/or ciclosizer) have not been designed to measure particles that tend to aggregate or disaggregate, since they include external forces (e.g., centrifugal, agitation, pumping and sonication). These forces affect the true size of the aggregates formed in a unit operation, thereby losing representativity in terms of aggregates particle size. This study presents an alternative method of measuring the size distribution of particles with aggregation behavior, particularly, by using non-invasive microscopy and image processing and analysis. The samples used have been obtained from an experimental precipitation process by applying sulfidization to treat the cyanide-copper complexes contained in a cyanidation solution. This method has been validated with statistical tools and compared with a conventional analysis based on laser diffraction. Our results show significant differences between the methods analyzed, demonstrating that image processing and analysis by microscopy is an excellent and non-invasive alternative to obtaining size distribution of aggregates in precipitation processes.

The effects of heating rate before solution treatment and cooling rate after solution treatment on the morphological distribution and evolution of precipitation phase of nickel-based single crystal superalloy were studied. The dissolution, precipitation and growth of precipitation phase and matrix phase during heat treatment were analyzed by means of high power scanning electron microscopy. The results show that the morphology of precipitated phase has nothing to do with the distribution of precipitated phase and the heating rate in the heating process, but the cooling rate in the cooling process affects the shape, size and distribution of precipitated phase. The faster the cooling rate, the smaller the precipitated phase is, the more irregular the shape is, the smaller the equivalent edge length is, and the smaller the channel width of matrix phase is.

A smart precipitation estimation method based on FY-4B meteorological satellite data (FY-4B_AI) is proposed in this paper. This method spatiotemporally matches 125 features derived from multi-temporal and multi-channels of FY-4B satellite data with the precipitation at stations. Then a precipitation model using the Light Gradient Boosting Machine algorithm is constructed. Comparative results between FY-4B_AI and GPM/IMERG-L products for over 450 million station cases throughout 2023 shows that: 1) FY-4B_AI is superior to GPM IMERG-L in the average absolute error, root mean square error, relative error, correlation coefficient, probability of detection and critical success index. While in the mean error and false alarm rate, FY-4B_AI is slightly inferior to GPM/IMERG-L. 2) Evaluation of strong weather event applications reveals that both FY-4B_AI and GPM/IMERG-L can accurately represent the spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation, no matter in the southeast humid region or the northwest dry region. Notably, FY-4B_AI, due to its higher spatiotemporal resolution, provides a more detailed distribution of precipitation.