Existing research indicates that mineralization of Carlin-type gold deposit is related to geological structures, but current studies mostly focus on the qualitative association, and lack quantitative analysis of the relationship between mineralization and structural features, which limits the potential for predictive mineral exploration. In this study, the Nibao Carlin-type gold deposit was selected as the research area to conduct three-dimensional geological modeling, spatial analysis, and three-dimensional prospectivity modeling. Spatial analysis revealed that the majority of gold ore bodies are situated near the main fault, with gold mineralization primarily occurring within a spatial range of approximately -80 meters to 20 meters from the main fault plane. This spatial distribution predominantly aligns in a SW-NE direction. Spatial characteristic extraction of fault slope indicators suggests that the slope angles are conducive to the migration and accumulation of ore-forming hydrothermal fluids, with ore body metal content rapidly increasing within an angle range of approximately 20° to 60°. The shape analysis of the mainfault indicates that the principal spaces of mineralization enrichment are within -10m to 20m of the fault plane undulations, where gold resources are concentrated in a relatively flat area. However, the degree of mineralization is more pronounced in the protruding sections than in the depressed areas. The areas with significant dip changes in faults display higher variations in orebody attitudes, with mineralization noticeably weaker in areas where the fault steepness changes markedly. Ore-bearing units exhibit significantly higher grades within the -17° to 3° interval of fault steepness transition. This interval also sees a rapid accumulation of gold resources. The Nibao gold mine's mineralization is derived from deep, ore-bearing hydrothermal fluids ascending along major fractures, precipitating, and accumulating in favorable ore-hosting spaces (faults, anticline cores) and lithological combinations (sedimentary tuffs, tuffs). Three deep potential gold targets were identified, highlighting the deep western edge of the F1 fault and the deep southeast-trending lower plate as prospective areas for future exploration. This study underscores the effectiveness of 3D prospective modeling as an indispensable tool for elucidating the spatial distribution of fault-controlled Carlin-type gold deposits and their tectonic determinants.

Water quality assessment in pastoral of Tibetan Plateau, which is water sources for about 40% of world's population and the runoff-yield area of Yellow rivers, is very important. In this paper, Xiahe county which belongs to Tibetan Plateau pastoral was investigated. Six parameters(via, chloride, COD, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate, fluoride, sulfate) were selected to assess the water quality and health degree by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods. The hydrochemical type in surface water was of HCO3--Mg2+-Ca2+ type. The cations and anions in surface water were mainly from weathering and dissolution of carbonate rock. Results showed that the water quality in all 69 sampling sites was all of class Ⅰ. The integrated health degree reached more than 0.85 and the health rate were 100%. Although ammonia nitrogen was regarded as the main contamination factor, but it had a little effect on the entire body of water. Overall, the surface water qualities of most samples in Xiahe County was good condition.

The development of virtual models has recently been generalized in the field of complex mechatronic product design. Virtual models have various advantages such as: the systemic design approach, most often parametric, the implementation of extreme, expensive, and perhaps risky scenarios for the operation of the designed product, the testing of a large number of variants, etc. The main contribution of the paper consists of the development of an interface family called DeSeRoI (Dedicated Serial Robot Interface). Each member of the interface family integrates Simulink libraries and is created by the programmer in accordance with user requests. It follows that the interfaces composing the DeSeRoI family can have different levels of complexity depending on user needs and constraints. We are implementing a MATLAB-based application with user-provided configuration for serial robots in order to automatically visualize the kinematics data and simulation. Within MATLAB, two scripts are created responsible for generating Simulink models that compute the kinematics problem. One of the scripts (Main) saves information about the configuration of the robot and the other one (Generates_Simulink_Models) computes the kinematics problem. Different types of functions (software module) have been developed. Using these functions, the Simulink models result as modular entities. The automated approach eases user’s interaction and understanding of serial robots’ kinematics by performing the simulation procedure in a shorter amount of time and with higher efficiency, assuring a precise outcome despite the chosen parameters.

As one of the fastest-growing new energy sources, wind power technology has attracted widespread attention from all over the world. In order to improve the quality of wind power generation, wind speed prediction is an indispensable task. In this paper, an error correction based Variational Mode Decomposition and Broad Learning System (VMD-BLS) hybrid model is proposed for wind speed prediction. First, the wind speed is decomposed into multiple components by the VMD algorithm, and then an ARMA model is established for each component to find the optimal number of sequence divisions. Second, the BLS model is used to predict each component, and the prediction results are summed to obtain the wind speed forecast value. However, in some traditional methods, there is always time lag, which will reduce the forecast accuracy. To deal with this, a novel error correction technique is developed by utilizing BLS. Through verification experiment with actual data, it proves that the proposed method can reduce the phenomenon of prediction lag, and can achieve higher prediction accuracy than traditional approaches, which shows our method’s effectiveness in practice.

Purpose: To compare refractive prediction error (PE)s between phacotrabeculectomy and phacoemulsification. Methods: Refractive PE was defined as the difference of spherical equivalent between the predicted value using the Barrett Universal II formula and the actual value obtained at postoperative one month. Forty-eight eyes that had undergone phacotrabeculectomy (19 eyes, open-angle glaucoma; 29 eyes, angle-closure glaucoma) were matched with 48 eyes that had undergone phacoemulsification by age, average keratometry value and axial length (AL), and their PEs were compared. The factors associated with PE were analyzed by multivariable regression analyses. Results: Phacotrabeculectomy group showed a larger absolute PE compared to the phacoemulsification group (0.51 ± 0.37 Diopters vs. 0.38 ± 0.22, P=0.033). Larger absolute PE was associated with longer AL (P=0.010) and higher intraocular pressure (IOP) difference (P=0.012). Hyperopic shift (PE>0) was associated with shallower preoperative anterior chamber depth (ACD) (P=0.024) and larger IOP difference (P=0.031). In the phacotrabeculectomy group, the PE was inversely correlated with AL: long eyes showed myopic shift and short eyes hyperopic shift (P=0.002). Conclusions: Surgeons should be aware of the possibility of worse refractive outcomes when planning phacotrabeculectomy especially in eyes with high preoperative IOP, shallow ACD, and/or extreme AL.

Danyore Valley area is a new prospect of copper-gold mineralization in the Gilgit-Baltistan province, Kohistan terrane, northern Pakistan. The mineralization is Cu-Au vein-type, localized within quartz veins and controlled by a fracture system mainly trending NW and NE. The host units belong to the Ladakh-Kohistan arc terrane, which covers northern Pakistan and north-western India and mainly comprises Precambrian basement units, Paleozoic to Cenozoic magmatic rocks, and sedimentary strata. The mineralized wall rocks consist of Mesozoic gabbro and diorite, which have undergone an intensive hydrothermal alteration. The study area, Danyore Valley, has yet to be explored. The geological background and mineralization type in literature are scarce. Moreover, the tectonic setting, petrogenesis, age, and magmatic evolution of the gabbro-diorite hosting unit still need to be better understood. Furthermore, the sources of metals and mineralized fluids and the types of mineralization and alteration are also unexplored. This research's contribution presents the field investigation, microscopic observations, whole rock geochemistry (major, trace, and REE), mineral analysis (EPMA), in situ LA–ICP–MS zircon U–Pb age dating, and zircon trace elements data for Danyore Valley Cu-Au prospect of Kohistan Batholith. The current research work's objectives are to (a) constrain the emplacement ages of the Danyore Valley host rocks, (b) determine the petrogenesis and tectonic environment of the gabbro-diorite wall rocks, and (c) identify the mineralization style and alteration patterns of Cu-Au occurrences. The U-Pb isotopic data of studied zircons from Danyore Valley diorite specimens yielded concordia ages from 111.60 ± 0.90 Ma to 112.18 ± 0.74 Ma. Correspondingly, the gabbro rock sample displayed a concordia age of 110.21 ± 0.99 Ma, indicating the crystallization time of the host bodies is mainly the early cretaceous period (∼110 Ma). The findings of this study reveal that the calc-alkaline affinity and arc-like geochemical characteristics of the gabbro and diorite rocks have been characterized by a significant enrichment in large-ion lithophile elements and an apparent depletion in high-field strength elements. The parent magma probably originated from a partial melting process of mantle depletion, and geochemical traits are characteristic of magmas associated with subduction zones. The Danyore Valley area of Kohistan terrane is defined by the existence of several mineralized quartz veins, which are mainly sulfide assemblages. The sulfide ore is mainly comprised of chalcopyrite, pyrite, and bornite, with a smaller amount of covellite and sphalerite and significant traces of gold, which are distributed mainly in sulfides. Copper and gold mineralization of Danyore Valley is associated with phyllic, propylitic, and carbonatization alteration assemblages. Metal-rich quartz veins exhibit a spatial correlation with diorite and gabbro rocks. The discovery of several surface Cu-Au vein-type mineralized areas accompanying outcrops of copper supergene enrichment at the Danyore Valley prospect is significant evidence (predictor patterns) of porphyry-style deposits in the Gilgit district, Kohistan terrane, northern Pakistan. This work also advocates the importance of the Danyore Valley prospect and Kohistan Batholith region for further detailed geological studies.

Biohydrogen is a versatile energy carrier for the generation of electric energy from renewable sources. Hydrogenases can be used in enzymatic fuel cells to oxidize dihydrogen. The rate of electron transfer (ET) at the anodic side between the [NiFe]-hydrogenase enzyme distal iron-sulfur cluster and the electrode surface can be described by the Marcus equation. All parameters for the Marcus equation are accessible from DFT calculations. The distal cubane FeS-cluster has a three cysteine and one histidine coordination [Fe₄S₄](His)(Cys)₃ first ligation sphere. The reorganization energy (inner- and outer-sphere) is almost unchanged upon a histidine-to-cysteine substitution. Differences in rates of electron transfer between the wild-type enzyme and the all-cysteine mutant can be rationalized by a diminished electronic coupling between the donor and acceptor molecules in the [Fe₄S₄](Cys)₄ case. The fast and efficient electron transfer from the distal iron-sulfur cluster is realized by a fine-tuned protein environment which facilitates the flow of electrons. This study enables the design and control of electron transfer rates and pathways by protein engineering.

As the most active plateau on the Earth, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has a complex crust-mantle structure. Knowledge of the distribution of such a structure provides information for understanding the underlying geodynamic processes. We obtains a three-dimensional density model of crustal and upper mantle beneath Qinghai-Tibet plateau and its surrounding areas from the residual geoid anomalies using the Earth Gravitational Model (EGM) 2008. We estimate a refined density model by iterations, using an initial density contrast model. We confirm that the EGM2008 mission products can be used to constrain the crust-mantle density structures. Our major findings are: (1). At 300-400 km depth, high-D anomalies terminate around Jinsha River Suture (JRS) in the central TP, suggesting that the Indian plate has been reached over the Bangong Nujiang Suture (BNS) and almost reach to the JRS. (2). On the eastern TP, low-D anomalies at the depth of 0-300 km together with high-D anomalies at 400-670 km further verified the current eastward subduction of Indian plate. The ongoing subduction provides forces to the occurrences of frequent earthquakes and volcano. (3). At 600 km depth, low-D anomalies inside the TP illustrate the existence of hot weak material beneath there, contributing to the external material inward-thrusting.

Culture exploits the acquisition of meaningful content by crafting regimes of shared attention, determining what is relevant, valuable, and salient. Culture changes the field of relevant social affordances worthy of being acted upon in a context-sensitive manner. When relevant affordances are highly weighted, their attentional capture and their salience increase the probability of them being enacted due to the associated expectation for minimizing prediction error. This process is known as active inference. In the digital era, individuals need to infer the action-related attributes of digital cues, here characterized as digital affordances. The digital affordances of digital social platforms are of particular interest here. Digital social affordances are defined as online possibilities of social interactions. By their own nature, these are salient because they are related to social interactions and relevant social cues. However, the problem of digital social platforms is that they are not equivalent to situated social interactions because their structure is built, mediated, and defined by third-parties with diverse interests. The third-parties behind the digital social platforms are using the same mechanism exploited by culture to manipulate the shared patterns of attention. Moreover, digital social platforms are deliberately designed to be hyper-stimulating, making digital social affordances highly rewarding and increasingly salient. This appropriation, for economic purposes, is an issue of great importance, especially as the COVID-19 pandemic brought deep global changes, pushing societies to an online digital way of life. Here, we examined different types of digital social affordances under an active inference view, placing them into two categories, those for self-identity formation, and those for belief-updating. This paper aims to analyze digital social affordances in light of the prediction error dynamics they might elicit to their users. Although each of the analyzed digital social affordances allows different epistemic and instrumental digital actions, they all share the characteristic of having an "easy" and a fast expected rate of error reduction. Here, we aim to provide a new hypothesis about how the design behind digital social affordances is built on our natural attractiveness to minimize prediction error and the resulting positive embodied feelings when doing so. Finally, it is suggested that because digital social affordances are becoming highly weighted in the field of affordances, this might be putting at risk our context-sensitive grip on a rich, dynamic and varied field of relevant affordances.

The coseismic surface three-dimensional deformation fields were significant for quantified the geometric and kinematic characteristics of earthquake rupture faults. Traditional geodetic techniques were constrained by their intrinsic limitations, such as InSAR, which could only extract far-field deformation fields due to its incoherence, and GNSS, which could only acquire deformations at discrete points. The recently developing optical pixel correlation technique based on high resolution remote sensing images could acquire the near-field coseismic horizontal deformation. In this study, the vertical displacement field of the 2022 Mw 6.6 Menyuan earthquake was obtained by differencing the pre- and post-earthquake DEMs from GaoFen-7 stereo satellite images. Further, the line-of-sight (LOS) and azimuthal (AZI) directions far-field deformations by InSAR, the horizontal near-field deformation by optical pixel correlation based on pre- and post-earthquake GF-2/7 images, and the vertical deformation by differencing the pre- and post-earthquake DEMs, were incorporated to comprehensively solve the complete three-dimensional deformation fields of the 2022 Mw 6.6 Menyuan earthquake. Firstly, the vertical displacement field by differencing DEMs indicated there were significant vertical displacements about 1 m at the bend region, which was induced by the local compressive stress. In addition, at the epicenter on the middle segment of ruptured Lenglongling fault (LLLF), the maximum lifting occurred on the southern sides of the main and secondary faults exceeded 2 m. Secondly, the three-dimensional deformation fields solved by multiple deformation data demonstrated that the near-field deformation field calculated by optical pixel correlation method could quantify the displacements distributed over the rupture fault zone, which were not available on the InSAR deformation maps. Finally, the surface 2D strain derived from the displacement maps calculated by optical pixel correlation revealed high strain concentration on the rupture fault zone. Our study focused on the complete surface three-dimensional deformation estimation from multiple far- and near-field deformation data, and provided a new perspective for a deeper understanding of the characteristics of coseismic surface deformation and the rupture pattern of the fault.

The effectiveness of a hybrid technique for identifying seismic damage in planar, multistory, steel X or V-braced frames is demonstrated here through an example of a six-story frame. This proposed technique, referred to as “M and P”, combines the instrumental Monitoring (M) with Pushover analysis (P). According to the methodology, the diagram of stepping eigenfrequencies of the frame in the inelastic region is initially plotted against seismic roof displacement. The fundamental natural frequency detected via the monitoring process is then utilized in this key diagram to reveal the inelastic roof displacement that corresponds to the damage state of the steel braced frame. This displacement is subsequently used as the target in the pushover analysis, facilitating the identification of seismic damage in the existing steel braced frame. Finally, the damage image is correlated with the damage stiffness matrix of the frame at the same inelastic roof displacement. The investigation results indicate that combining instrumental monitoring with pushover analysis enables accurate identification of seismic damage potential in existing steel braced frames.

The information of seismic damage of buildings in SAR images of different time phase, especially in SAR images after earthquake, is easily disturbed by other factors, which affects the accuracy of information discrimination. In order to identify and evaluate the distribution information of the seismic damage accurately and make full use of the abundant texture features in the SAR image. The conventional method of change detection based on texture features usually takes the pixel as the calculating unit. In this paper, a method of texture feature change detection of SAR images based on watershed segmentation algorithm is proposed. Based on the optimization of texture feature parameters, the feature parameters are segmented by the watershed segmentation algorithm, and the feature object image is obtained. This method introduces the idea of object oriented, and carries out the calculation of the difference map at the object level, Finally, the classification threshold value of different types of seismic damage types is selected, and the recognition of building damage is achieved. Taking the ALOS data before and after the earthquake in Yushu as an example to verify the effectiveness of the method, the overall accuracy of the building extraction is 88.9%, Compared with pixel-based methods, it is proved that the proposed method is effective.

Food systems will need to undergo considerable transformation. To be better prepared for and resilient to uncertainty and disturbances in the future, resource users and managers need to further develop knowledge about the food and farming system, with its dominating feedback structures and complexities, and to test robust and integrated system-based solutions. This paper investigates how participatory system dynamics modeling can be adapted to groups at the community level with low or no formal educational background. The paper also analyzes the refinement of workshop participants’ mental models as a consequence of a participatory system dynamics intervention. For this purpose, we ran two workshops with small-scale farmers in Zambia. Analysis of workshop data and post-workshop interviews shows that participatory system dynamics is well adaptable to support an audience-specific learning-by-doing approach. The use of pictures, objects and water glasses in combination with the basic aspects of causal loop diagramming makes for a well-balanced toolbox. Participants acquire understanding that is also relevant beyond systems thinking in that is offers a range of practical insights such as a critical evaluation of common food security strategies.

Carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP), noted for its outstanding properties including high specific strength and superior fatigue resistance, is increasingly employed in aerospace and other demanding applications. This study investigates the interactions between CFRP composites and high-energy lasers (HEL), with continuous wave laser powers reaching up to 120 kW. A novel automated sample exchange system, operated by a robotic arm, minimizes human exposure while enabling a sequence of targeted laser tests. High-speed imaging captures the rapid expansion of a plume consisting of hot gases and dust particles during the experiment. The research significantly advances empirical models by systematically examining the relationship between laser power, perforation times, and ablation rates. It demonstrates scalable predictions for the effects of high-energy laser radiation. Detailed examination of the damaged samples, both visually and via micro-focused computed X-ray tomography, offers insights into heat distribution and ablation dynamics, highlighting the anisotropic thermal properties of CFRP. Compression-after-impact (CAI) tests further assess the residual strength of the irradiated samples, enhancing the understanding of CFRP’s structural integrity post-irradiation. Collectively, these tests improve the knowledge of the thermal and mechanical behavior of CFRP under extreme irradiation conditions. The findings not only contribute to predictive modeling of CFRP's response to laser irradiation but also enhance the scalability of these models to higher laser powers, providing robust tools for predicting material behavior in high-performance settings.

As the global population faces an increasing prevalence of physical disabilities, the challenge of motor rehabilitation has become increasingly urgent. Considering that approximately 15% of the global population lives with some form of disability, with a significant number having motor disa-bilities that greatly impact their quality of life, the integration of robotic technologies into rehabili-tation processes offers an opportunity for significant improvement in functional recovery and pa-tient autonomy. This analysis aims to evaluate the progress and challenges encountered in imple-menting robotic technology for the rehabilitation of patients with physical disabilities, highlighting the potential of emerging technologies such as exoskeletons, assisted training devices, and brain-computer interface systems in facilitating motor recovery. By examining relevant clinical studies, the analysis demonstrates the varied effectiveness of robotic therapies compared to traditional re-habilitation methods, while also highlighting the need for ongoing research to optimize care prac-tices and address challenges related to cost, accessibility, and treatment personalization. In con-clusion, robotic technologies represent a promising direction in motor rehabilitation, with the po-tential to revolutionize the care of patients with physical disabilities, significantly improving quali-ty of life and social integration.

Prediction markets are heralded as powerful forecasting tools, but models to describe them often fail to capture the full complexity of the underlying mechanisms that drive price dynamics. To address this issue, we propose a model in which agents belong in a social network, have an opinion about the probability of a particular event to occur, and bet on the prediction market accordingly. Agents update their opinions about the event by interacting with their neighbours in the network, following the Deffuant model of opinion dynamics. Our results suggest that a simple market model that takes into account opinion formation dynamics is capable to replicate the empirical properties of historical prediction market time series, including volatility clustering and fat-tailed distribution of returns. Interestingly, the best results are obtained when there is the right level of variance in the opinions of the agents. Moreover, this paper provides a new way to indirectly validate opinion dynamics models against real data by using historical data obtained from PredictIt, an exchange platform whose data has never been used before to validate models of opinion diffusion.

Building fires are preventable incidents that have proven to be both deadly and costly. Addressing their root causes will lead to safer neighbourhoods for families and businesses to live and operate in. Multiple studies have established the effect of residents’ socioeconomic compositions on an area’s building fire rates; however, the existing model based on the classical stepwise regression procedure has several limitations. This paper aims to construct a more accurate predictive model of building fire rates based on a set of explanatory socioeconomic variables. In building the socioeconomic model, a backward elimination by Robust Final Predictor Error (RFPE) criterion is proposed to enhance the forecasting capability of the model. The proposed method has been implemented on the census data and the fire incident data of the South East Queensland region in Australia. A cross-validation was then conducted to assess the model’s accuracy. In addition, comparative analyses of other elimination criteria, such as p-value, adjusted R-squared, Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and predicted residual error sum of squared (PRESS), were conducted. The cross-validation analyses demonstrate that the proposed criterion is a more accurate predictive model based on a couple of goodness-of-fit measures. All in all, the RFPE equation was found to be a suitable criterion for the backward elimination procedure in the socioeconomic modelling of building fires.

The NW-SE trending dextral strike-slip faults on the north side of the Tian Shan play an important role in accommodating the crustal shortening, which mainly includes the Karatau fault, Talas-Fergana fault, Dzhalair-Naiman fault, Aktas fault, Dzhungarian fault (also named Bolokenu-Aqikekuduk fault) and Chingiz fault. The classic viewpoint is that the strike-slip fault is the adjustment product caused by the difference of the crustal shortening from west to east. Another viewpoint attributes the dextral strike-slip fault to large-scale sinistral shearing. The Alakol Lake Fault is situated along the northern margin of the Dzhungarian Gate, stretching for roughly 150 km from Lake Ebinur to Lake Alakol. Our team utilized aerial photographs, Satellite Stereo-imagery, and field observation to map the distribution of the Alakol Lake fault. Our findings provided evidence supporting the assertion that the fault is a dextral strike-slip fault. In reference to its spatial distribution, Lake Alakol is situated in a pull-apart basin that lies between two major dextral strike-slip fault lines: the Chingiz and Dzhungarian faults. The Alakol Lake Fault serves as a connecting point for these two faults, resulting in the formation of a mega NW-SE dextral strike-slip fault zone. According to our analysis of the dating samples taken from the alluvial fan, as well as our measurement of the displacement of the riser and gully, it appears that the Alakol Lake fault has a dextral strike-slip rate of 0.8-1.5mm/yr. The strike-slip rate of the Alakol Lake fault is comparatively higher than that of the Chingiz fault in the northern region (~0.7 mm/yr), but slower than that of the Dzhungarian fault in the southern (3.2-5 mm/yr). The Chingiz-Alakol-Dzhungarian fault zone shows a gradual decrease in deformation towards the interior of the Kazakhstan platform. We contend that the rate of deformation observed is better explained by the crustal shortening adjustment model, rather than the large-scale sinistral shearing model.

Positioning based on wireless signals such as mobile communication networks has become an important means to provide high-precision location services in environments where satellite signals are blocked. In complex environments such as indoor and underground, wireless signal propagation is obstructed and non-line-of-sight (NLOS) phenomena appears due to serious occlusion and reflection. The time delay caused by NLOS effects has little impact on communication system but can significantly increase positioning errors in positioning systems. Therefore, effective suppression of NLOS errors is crucial to improving 5G positioning accuracy. To address the insufficient feature extraction of existing NLOS error suppression methods, the neglect of residual NLOS measurement errors, and poor stability of position estimation results, this paper innovatively proposes a NLOS mitigation and location estimation method for 5G positioning terminals. Simulation and experimental test results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the comparative methods both theoretically and practically, achieving an average positioning accuracy of 1.85 meters in complex indoor NLOS environments. The method proposed in this paper provides a new strategy for NLOS error suppression in indoor 5G positioning, which can significantly contribute to high-precision location services based on commercial 5G networks.

The paper presents an error model of a measurement chain containing link performing discrete wavelet transform algorithm which is most often the last stage of measurement signal processing. The goal is to determine the uncertainty budget of the input quantities of the wavelet transform algorithm. The error model takes into account parts of analog, analog-to-digital and digital processing, describing the properties of subsequent fragments of the chain using their transmittance and processing functions. The proposed model enables the description of both deterministic and non-deterministic properties of signal errors. The proposed model was validated using an example measurement chain created for this purpose.

As urbanization continues to increase, key conservation areas like World Heritage sites are being altered. This transformation is a cause for concern as it threatens the Outstanding Universal Value of these sites. To address this issue, a research question was formulated: How urban is World Heritage? The research focused on identifying and monitoring urbanization in heritage core zones listed on the World Heritage by tracking changes in built-up areas from 1985 to 2015. The findings revealed that urban developments, including housing, transport infrastructure construction, visitor accommodation facilities, and land conversions, have significantly impacted heritage properties. More than a third (37\%, 426) of the cultural heritage properties reported urban development, with the highest occurrences in Europe, North America, Asia, and the Pacific. Furthermore, these regions also displayed the highest rate of change per year between 1985 and 2015. This indicates the urgent need to identify and monitor the urbanization of World Heritage to preserve their OUV amidst increasing urban development.

Pedestrian Dead Reckoning (PDR) is a promising algorithm for indoor positioning. However, the accuracy of PDR degrades due to the accumulated error, especially in multi-floor buildings. This paper introduces a three-dimensional (3D) positioning method based on terrain feature matching to reduce the influence of accumulated error in multi-floor scene. The proposed method involves two steps: motion pattern recognition and position matching calibration. The motion pattern recognition aims to detect different motion states, i.e., taking the stairs or horizontal walking, from the streaming data. Then, stair entrances and corridor corners are matched with transition points of motion states and pedestrian turning points, respectively. After matching, calibration is performed to eliminate the accumulated errors. By carrying out experiments on a two-floor closed-loop path with a walking distance about 145 m, it is shown that this method can effectively reduce the accumulated error of PDR , achieving accurate 3D positioning . The average error is reduced from 6.60 m to 1.83 m.

Human civilizations are under enormous threats due to the outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) originated from Wuhan, China. The asymptomatic carriers are the potential spreads of this novel virus. Since, guaranteed antiviral treatments have not been available in the market so far, it is really challenging to fight against this contagious disease. To save the living mankind, it is urgent to know more about how the virus transmits itself from one to another quite rapidly and how we can predict future infections. Scientists and Researchers are working hard in investigating to understand its high infection rate and transmission process. One possible way to know is to use our existing COVID-19 infection data and prepare a useful model to predict the future trend. Mathematical modelling is very useful to understand the basic principle of COVID-19 transmission and provide necessary guidelines for future prediction. Here, we have reviewed 9 distinct commonly used models based on Mathematical implementations for COVID-19 transmission and dig into the deep head to head comparison of each model. Finally, we have discussed interesting key behaviour of each model, relevant upcoming important issues, challenges and future directions.

This paper focuses on improving the tracking accuracy for servo systems and increasing the contouring performance of precision machining. The dynamic friction during precision machining is analyzed using the LuGre model. The dynamic and static parameters in the friction model are efficiently and accurately identified using the improved Drosophila Swarm Algorithm based on cross-mutation. The friction tracking error can be deduced by the friction state space and an expression is derived. To compensate for the tracking error caused by friction, a feedforward compensation control is designed to avoid signal lag in traditional friction controllers. Furthermore, the factors of multi-axis parameter mismatching that impact the machining profile accuracy are analyzed for multi-axis control. An adaptive cross-coupled control-based pre-compensation strategy of contour error is designed to reduce both the tracking error and the contour error. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through several experiments, which demonstrate a remarkable improvement in tracking performance and contour accuracy.

During HIV-1 virus assembly the genomic RNA (vRNA) is selected for packaging by the viral protein Gag because it contains a specific packaging signal, Psi. While there have been numerous studies of Gag-Psi interactions, there is almost no information on kinetic aspects of this interaction. We have investigated the kinetics of Gag binding to different RNAs using switchSENSE DRX2 technology. We measured the association rate of Gag binding to monomeric Psi, to a “Multiple Binding Site Mutant” Psi that is inactive for genome packaging in vivo, and to a scrambled Psi. We discovered that Gag binds more rapidly to Psi RNA than to the mutant or scrambled RNAs. Furthermore, rapid Gag association kinetics are retained within sub-regions of Psi: Gag associates more rapidly with RNA containing only the 3’ two of the three Psi stem-loops than with monomeric RNA containing the 5’ two stem-loops or a scrambled RNA. No differences were detectable with individual Psi stem-loops. Interestingly, the rate of binding of Gag molecules to Psi increases with increasing Gag concentration, suggesting cooperativity in binding. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that selectivity in packaging derives from kinetic differences in initiation of particle assembly.

Recently, a large number of Transformer-based solutions have emerged for the trajectory prediction task, but there are shortcomings in the effectiveness of Transformers in trajectory prediction. Specifically, while position encoding preserves some of the ordering information, the self-attention mechanism at the core of the Transformer has its alignment invariance that leads to the loss of temporal information, which is crucial for trajectory prediction. For this reason, we design a simple and efficient strategy for temporal information extraction and prediction of trajectory sequences using the self-attention mechanism and linear layers. Experimental results show that the strategy we designed can effectively combine the advantages of the linear layer and self-attention mechanisms, compensating for the shortcomings of the Transformer. Additionally, we conducted an empirical study to explore the effectiveness of the linear layer and sparse self-attention mechanisms in trajectory prediction.

The influence of playing formations and team ranking on the physical performance of professional soccer players is an open question that needs to be explored. The present study aimed to investigate the impact of these factors on the physical exertion of Serie A soccer players. We analyzed match data from 375 players, categorizing teams based on their final ranking and comparing performance across different playing formations. Krustal-Wallies test, and Dunn test with Bonferroni adjustment, revealed that high-ranking (HR) teams exhibited a higher percentage of high-intensity (HI) accelerations compared to mid-ranking teams, suggesting the critical role of HI efforts in achieving favorable match outcomes. Moreover, the 4-3-3 playing formation was associated with greater acceleration demands than other formations, particularly in HR teams. Our study also established benchmarks for various performance metrics, enabling coaches to assess player performance and identify potential signs of overtraining. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the physical demands in soccer and offer practical implications for coaches and players in optimizing training and performance strategies.

In this paper we introduce a computational model for the simulation of hypervelocity impact (HVI) phenomena which is based on the Discrete Element Method (DEM). Our paper constitutes the first application of DEM to the modeling and simulating of impact events for velocities beyond 5 kms⁻¹. We present here the results of a systematic numerical study on HVI of solids. For modeling the solids, we use discrete spherical particles that interact with each other via potentials. In our numerical investigations we are particularly interested in the dynamics of material fragmentation upon impact. We model a typical HVI experiment configuration where a sphere strikes a thin plate and investigate the properties of the resulting debris cloud. We provide a quantitative computational analysis of the resulting debris cloud caused by impact and a comprehensive parameter study by varying key parameters of our model. We compare our findings from the simulations with recent HVI experiments performed at our institute. Our findings are that the DEM method leads to very stable, energy–conserving simulations of HVI scenarios that map the experimental setup where a sphere strikes a thin plate at hypervelocity speed. Our chosen interaction model works particularly well in the velocity range where the local stresses caused by impact shock waves markedly exceed the ultimate material strength.

In this paper, we present a method for estimating GPS signals from visual information captured by a monocular camera mounted on a fixed-wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle. The main challenge in visual odometry from aerial images is the computation of scale due to irregularities in the elevation of the terrain. That is, it is not possible to accurately convert from pixels in the image to meters in space, and the error accumulates. The contribution of this work is to reduce the accumulated error by comparing the images from the camera with satellite images. The algorithm has been tested in real-time experiments, and the results show that it is possible to eliminate the accumulated error using satellite images.

Stueckelberg-Horwitz-Piron (SHP) electrodynamics formalizes the distinction between coordinate time (measured by laboratory clocks) and chronology (temporal ordering) by defining 4D spacetime events x^μ as functions of an external evolution parameter τ. Classical spacetime events x^μ (τ) evolve as τ grows monotonically, tracing out particle worldlines dynamically and inducing the five U(1) gauge potentials through which events interact. Since Lorentz invariance imposes time reversal symmetry on x⁰ but not τ, the formalism resolves grandfather paradoxes and related problems of irreversibility. The action involves standard first order field derivatives but includes a higher order τ derivative that while preserving gauge and Lorentz invariance removes certain singularities and makes the related QFT super-renormalizable. The resulting field equations are Maxwell-like but τ-dependent and sourced by a current that represents a statistical ensemble of instantaneous events distributed along the worldline. The width λ of this distribution defines a correlation time for the interactions and a mass spectrum for the photons that carry the interaction. As λ becomes very large, the photon mass goes to zero and the field equations become τ-independent Maxwell’s equations. Maxwell theory thus emerges as an equilibrium limit of SHP, in which λ is larger than any other relevant time scale. Particles and fields are not constrained to mass shells in SHP theory, and by exchanging mass may produce pair creation/annihilation processes at the classical level. On-shell evolution with fixed particle masses is restored through a self-interaction associated with the 5D wave equation.

This paper presents the analysis of four error models that can appear in the field of adaptive systems, where adaptive laws for parameter estimation are represented as fractional order differential equations whose order can switch between an order within the range (0,1) and 1. These switched adaptive laws have been proposed in the past few years to improve the balance between control energy and system performance, which is often a challenge when using traditional integer-order or fractional-order adaptive laws in adaptive identification and control. Boundedness of the solutions is proved for all cases, together with the convergence to zero of the estimation/tracking error. Additionally, sufficient conditions for parameter convergence are presented, showing that the excitation condition required for parameter convergence in the vector case is also sufficient for parameter estimation in the matrix case.

Water resource is considered as a significant factor in development of regional environment and society. Water consumption prediction can provide important decision basis for the regional water supply scheduling optimisations. According to the periodicity and randomness nature of the daily water consumption data, a Markov modified autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model is proposed in this study. The proposed model, combined with the Markov chain, can correct the prediction error, reduce the continuous superposition of prediction error, and improve the prediction accuracy of future daily water consumption data. The daily water consumption data of different monitoring points are used to verify the effectiveness of the model, and the future water consumption is predicted, in the study area. The results show that the proposed algorithm can effectively reduce the prediction error compared to the ARIMA.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative brain disorder. One of the important therapeutic approaches of AD is the inhibition of β‐site APP cleaving enzyme‐1 (BACE1). This enzyme plays a central role in the synthesis of the pathogenic β-amyloid peptides (Aβ) in Alzheimer's disease. A group of potent BACE1 inhibitors with known x-ray structures (PDB ID 5i3X, 5i3Y, 5iE1, 5i3V, 5i3W, 4LC7, 3TPP) were studied by molecular dynamics simulation and binding energy calculation employing MM_GB(PB)SA. The calculated binding energies gave Kd values 0.139 µM, 1.39 nM, 4.39 mM, 24.3 nM, 1.39 mM, 29.13 mM and 193.07 nM, respectively. These inhibitors showed potent inhibitory activities in enzymatic and cell assays. The Kd values were compared with experimental values, the structures were discussed in view of the energy contributions to binding. Drug likeness of these inhibitors is also discussed. Accommodation of ligands in the catalytic site of BACE1 is discussed depending on the type of fragment involved in each structure. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and energy studies were used to explore the recognition of the selected BACE1 inhibitors by Asp 32, Asp228 and the hydrophobic flap. The results show that selective BACE1 inhibition may be due to the formation of strong electrostatic interactions with Asp32 and Asp228 and a large number of hydrogen bonds, π-π and Van der Waals interactions with the amino acid residues located inside the catalytic cavity. Interactions with the ligands show a similar binding mode with BACE1. These results help to rationalize the design of selective BACE1 inhibitors.

This paper analyses the application of deep learning techniques for predicting wave overtopping events in port environments using sea state and weather forecasts as inputs. The study was conducted in the outer port of Punta Langosteira, A Coruña, Spain. A video recording infrastructure was installed to monitor overtopping events from 2015 to 2022, identifying 3709 overtopping events. The data collected was merged with actual and predicted data for the sea state and weather conditions during the overtopping events, creating three datasets. We used these datasets to create several machine learning models to predict whether an overtopping event would occur based on sea state and weather conditions. The final models achieved a high accuracy level during the training and testing stages: 0.81, 0.73, and 0.84 average accuracy during training and 0.67, 0.48, and 0.86 average accuracy during testing, respectively. The results of this study have significant implications for port safety and efficiency, as wave overtopping events can cause disruptions and potential damage. Using deep learning techniques for overtopping prediction can help port managers take preventative measures and optimize operations, ultimately improving safety and helping to minimize the economic impact that overtopping events have on the port's activities.

Despite the availability of COVID-19 vaccines, the global pandemic remains a significant health challenge. Timely detection of the virus is crucial for effective containment efforts, prompting the exploration of machine learning (ML) models for COVID-19 detection. highlights the ongoing significance of COVID-19 as a global health crisis despite the availability of vaccines. To address the need for timely virus detection, the study explores the efficacy of machine learning (ML) models, including DNN, Voting, Bagging, SVC_rbf, SVC_linear, SVC_polynomial, and SVC_sigmoid, in predicting COVID-19 infection probability. With a dataset comprising 4000 samples split into 3200 for training and 800 for testing, the analysis reveals that DNN and Voting models demonstrate the highest performance, achieving an impressive accuracy of 89%. These results underscore the potential of ML techniques, particularly DNN and ensemble methods like Voting, in facilitating early COVID-19 detection and contributing to effective pandemic management. The study emphasizes the importance of continued research to further refine and optimize ML-based COVID-19 detection systems.

We introduce derangetropy, a novel functional measure designed to characterize the dynamics of information within probability distributions. Unlike scalar measures such as Shannon entropy, derangetropy offers a functional representation that captures the dispersion of information across the entire support of a distribution. By incorporating self-referential and periodic properties, it provides deeper insights into information dynamics governed by differential equations and equilibrium states. Through combinatorial justifications and empirical analysis, we demonstrate the utility of derangetropy in depicting distribution behavior and evolution, providing a new tool for analyzing complex and hierarchical systems in information theory.

Amidst the escalating demands for efficient Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) management, the significance of accurate Origin-Destination (OD) data prediction has emerged as a paramount concern, given its indispensable role in the ITS domain. This paper introduces a groundbreaking integrated model, creatively fusing the unique strengths of Graph Convolutional Network (GCN), Residual Neural Network (ResNet), and Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM) into a single architecture, which we name GraphResLSTM, to exploit road segment average speed data for OD prediction. Compared with conventional road segment traffic volume data, average speed data is more readily available, significantly reducing the data accessibility barrier for OD prediction. We underscore the critical role of selection of key road segments and employs a combination of Entropy Weight Method and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to identify 41 representative road segments from the experimental road network. In the experimental phase, we simulate 86400000 seconds of traffic conditions, generating a total of 1440000 data records. Utilizing these simulated data, we design and conduct comparative experiments between models as well as data types. The results demonstrate that both the GraphResLSTM model and road segment average speed data outperform other models and data types notably in OD prediction tasks.

Mammarenavirus Wenzhouense (WENV) is broadly distributed in Asia, while the he dynamics process of WENV infection remains unclear. A field derived strain of WENV was used to inoculate Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats by intramuscular injection, the process of virus infection was de-tected by controlling time for 28 days. Viral RNA became detectable in the blood at 3 d pi, and remained detectable for about 12 d. In most organ tissues, viral RNA peaked at 7 d pi, then began to decline by 14 d, however remained detectable in intestine and brain tissues at 21 and 28 d pi. Virus shedding had been detected from fecal samples for 5 days from 6 to 11 d pi using qRT-PCR, and was recovered from feces collected at 8 d pi. Horizontal contact infection occurred among cage-mates at 14 and 21 d pi. Antibodies against the nucleocapsid were detected at 5 dpi, next increased and persisted until the end of experiment. The results enabled to discriminate the kinetic of viremic response, virus shedding in feces and horizontal transmission, as well as the potential sites for WENV replication or maintenance of the virus in nature.

In patients with heart failure, the evaluation of left ventricular (LV) diastolic function is vital, offering crucial insights into hemodynamic impact and prognostic accuracy. Echocardiography stands as the primary imaging modality for diastolic function assessment, and using it effectively requires a profound understanding of the underlying pathology. This review covers four main topics: first, the fundamental driving forces behind each phase of normal diastolic dynamics, along with the physiological basis of two widely used echocardiographic assessment parameters, E/e' and mitral annulus early diastolic velocity (e'); second, the intricate functional relationship between the left atrium and LV in patients with varying degrees of LV diastolic dysfunction (LVDD); third, the role of stress echocardiography in diagnosing LVDD and the significance of parameter changes in this context; and fourth, the clinical utility of evaluating diastolic function from echocardiography images across diverse cardiovascular care areas.

A prospective clinical-epidemiological study was conducted to evaluate the dynamics of biomarkers in hospitalized patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 (according to the National Institute of Health severity scale) treated with Anakinra, compared to those receiving standard treatment. The study included 65 patients with a mean age of 75.51±9.54 years, ranging from 44 to 99 years. Among the study participants, 38 (58.5%) were male and 27 (41.5%) were female. The patients were divided into two groups: control group (standard treatment): 24 patients (36.9%) and target group (Anakinra treatment): 41 patients (63.1%). The results showed a significant relationship between the dynamics of leukocytes, ASAT, LDH, D-dimer, ferritin, and IL-6 and the administration of Anakinra. In the control group, no significant dynamics were observed in leukocyte count, D-dimer, ferritin, or IL-6. A statistically significant decrease in ASAT and LDH values in the control group was noted only on Day 7. In the Anakinra group, significantly (or with borderline statistical significance, p<0.1) lower mean values were observed for leukocytes, NLR, D-dimer, ferritin, and IL-6 on Days 3 and 7 compared to the control group. Additionally, significantly lower CRP values were detected in the Anakinra group on Day 7 compared to the control group.

Day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers, and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participate in predicting the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, Fixed Weight Method (FWM) and Varying Weight Method (VWM), for selecting each hour's expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features derived from information such as past electricity price data, weather data, and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than both the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF) method and our own previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) alone do on the datasets for New York, Australian, and Spanish electricity markets.

The work proposes a backtesting analysis in comparison between the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd mortality models, employing Italian data. The mortality data come from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) database and span the period 1975-2014, over which we computed back-projections evaluating the performances of the models in comparisons with real data. We propose three different backtest approaches, evaluating the goodness of short-run forecast versus medium-length ones. We find that both models were not able to capture the improving shock on the mortality observed for the male population on the analyzed period. Moreover, the results suggest that CBD forecast are reliable prevalently for ages above 75, and that LC forecast are basically more accurate for this data.

The combination of artificial intelligence algorithms and numerical methods has recently become popular in the prediction of macroscopic and microscopic hydrodynamics parameters of bubble column reactors. The multi inputs and outputs machine learning can cover small phase interactions or large fluid behavior in industrial domains. This numerical combination can develop the smart multiphase bubble column reactor with the ability of low-cost computational time. It can also decrease case studies for the optimization process when big data is appropriately used during learning. There are still many model parameters that need to be optimized for a very accurate artificial algorithm, including data processing and initialization, the combination of inputs and outputs, number of inputs and model tuning parameters. For this study, we aim to train four inputs big data during learning process by an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system or adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) method, and we consider the superficial gas velocity as one of the input variables, while for the first time, one of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) outputs named gas velocity is used as an output of the artificial algorithm. The results show that the increasing number of input variables improves the intelligence of the ANFIS method up to , and the number of rules during learning process has a significant effect on the accuracy of this type of modeling. The results also show that propper selection of model parameters results in more accuracy in prediction of the flow characteristics in the column structure.

The landscape of business intelligence (BI) is marked by rapid growth, extensive research, and practical implementations, reflecting its sustained relevance in modern business strategies. This paper delves into the dynamics of BI, particularly focusing on the interplay between maturity and agility. While BI maturity emphasizes optimization and predefined goals, BI agility prioritizes adaptability and response to change. The paper highlights the contradictions between these concepts, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach in BI strategy formulation.The role of organizational culture in fostering BI agility is explored through literature review and interviews with BI professionals. Key insights include the necessity of an open culture for effective BI utilization, clear strategic vision, decision delegation, information sharing, business-IT cooperation, and a learning-oriented mindset. These cultural factors contribute significantly to BI effectiveness and the ability to navigate dynamic business landscapes. The paper proposes pillars of agile maturity supported by an open organizational culture, including efficient communication, information integration, creative problem-solving, and close collaboration between business and IT. These pillars underscore the importance of a flexible and open mindset in navigating BI challenges and ensuring sustained value. Empirical validation and further research are suggested to deepen our understanding of the impact of organizational culture on BI agility and effectiveness.

Ti-Al based alloys, particularly TiAl and Ti3Al two-phase alloys, have garnered significant attention as potential replacements for various high-temperature structural materials due to their exceptional properties, including low density, oxidation resistance, and high strength at elevated temperatures. Despite these advantages, experimental studies on the microstructure evolution of Ti-Al based alloys under complex conditions remain challenging to observe and characterize. This review article examines the current research on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of Ti-Al based alloys, focusing on two-phase Ti-Al alloys, Ti-Al amorphous alloys, Ti-Al composite materials, and the welding and multi-layer/film applications of Ti-Al alloys. The review highlights the unique capabilities of MD simulations in predicting the behavior of Ti-Al based alloys and addresses existing scientific challenges. Furthermore, the article discusses future research directions and development prospects in this field.

Using geometric considerations, we provide a clear derivation of the integral representation for the error function, known as the Craig formula. We calculate the corresponding power series expansion and prove the convergence. The same geometric means finally help to systematically derive handy formulas that approximate the inverse error function. Our approach can be used for applications in e.g. high-speed Monte Carlo simulations where this function is used extensively.

The Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) poses a significant global public health concern, especially in Africa. Since its first isolation in Tanzania in 1953, CHIKV has caused recurrent outbreaks, challenging healthcare systems in low-resource settings. Recent outbreaks in Africa highlight the dynamic nature of CHIKV transmission and the challenges of underreporting and underdiagnosis. Here, we review literature and analyze publicly available cases, outbreaks, and genomic data providing insights into the epidemiology, genetic diversity, and transmission dynamics of CHIKV in Africa. Our analyses reveal the circulation of geographically distinct CHIKV genotypes, with certain regions experiencing a disproportionate burden of disease. Phylogenetic analysis of sporadic outbreaks in West Africa suggests repeated emergence of the virus through enzootic spillover, which is markedly different from inferred transmission dynamics in East Africa, where the virus is often introduced from Asian outbreaks, including the recent reintroduction of the Indian Ocean lineage from the Indian subcontinent to east Africa. Furthermore, there is limited evidence of viral movement between these two regions. Understanding the history and transmission dynamics of outbreaks is crucial for public health planning. Despite advances in surveillance and research, diagnostic and surveillance challenges persist. This review and secondary analysis highlight the importance of ongoing surveillance, research, and collaboration to mitigate the burden of CHIKV in Africa and improve public health outcomes.

Introduction: While preparing for dive exams, divers are trained to perform rescue exercises. Currently, divers think they will manage and control their body at any time.Methods: At the bottom of the water, the student takes the instructor who simulates a sickness, up to the surface, by controlling the going up. Then, if the exercise is wrong, both divers go down and exercise again. If the exercise is successful, both divers go down to perform another exercise until they are tired or until they have no more air. Results: I discovered that there was a mistake in the preparation of divers for rescue training due to Descartes’ error, “I think, thus I am”, which is part of our collective memory. Going up and going down after a sickness simulation is a repetitive action of the body and going down is therefore part of the automatisms of rescue, which is very dangerous. Conclusions: The body is not necessarily controlled by the present thinking, and if divers forget sickness while going up in a real rescue situation, they will go down automatically because their bodies were trained like this. In addition, it is very easy to forget sickness. Divers should not go down after rescue, they should be on the dive boat or on the land. Descartes’ error has to be reversed: “I am, thus I think” is right. The divers’ rescue exercises must be simplified and divers should never go down after the simulation of a sickness.

COVID-19 outbreak started in the Chinese city of Wuhan and spread around the globe in months due to its high contagious level. Hence, this disease posed a great challenge to researchers and mathematicians. Numerous mathematical models have been suggested to visualize the spreading speed and trends of this pandemic. In this paper, a comparison of a widely established and accepted method, the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered-Death-Insusceptible (SEIQRDP) model with a newly-proposed fractional-order SEIQRDP is studied. Densely populated Countries of Asia (Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh) have been chosen as data sets and both algorithms have been applied to their data. The same comparison technique has also been used on the data of two polar countries, New Zealand and Russia, that validated our findings. Error comparison of both algorithms has been recorded in a tabulated form which shows multi-fold erroneous trends over WHO data of selected countries.

In this paper, it is proved that s-iteration with error and Picard-Mann iteration with error iterative processes converge strongly to the unique fixed point of Lipschitzian strongly pseudo-contractive map. This convergence is almost -stable and -stable. Applications of these results to the operator equations, where is a strongly accretive and accretive mappings of into itself.

Longitudinal cutting is a most common process in steel structure manufacturing, and the man-hours of the process provide an important basis for enterprises to generate production schedules.However, currently the man-hours in factories are mainly estimated by experts, and the accuracy of this method is relatively low.In this study,we propose a system that predicts man-hours with history data in the manufacturing process and that can be applied in practical structural steel fabrication.The system addresses the data inconsistency problem by one-hot encoding and data normalization techniques,Pearson correlation coefficient for feature selection,and the Random Forest Regression(RFR) for prediction.Compared with the other three Machine Learning(ML) algorithms, the Random Forest algorithm has the best performance.The results demonstrate that the proposed system outperforms the conventional approach and has better forecast accuracy, so that it is suitable for man-hours prediction.

A PLS-based quality prediction method is proposed for batch processes using two-dimensional extended windows. To realize the adoption of information in the direction of sampling time and batch, a new definition region of support (ROS), k-i-back-extended region of support (KIBROS), is proposed to establish the extended window, which including the data of the previous sampling times in the same batch, the data of the same sampling time in the historical batches, the data of the previous sampling times in the historical batches and the data of the later sampling times in the historical batches. According to these regions of support, extended windows are established, and different models are proposed based on the extended windows for batch processes quality prediction. Further, using a typical batch process as an example, the injection molding process, the proposed quality prediction method is experimentally verified, proving that the proposed methods have higher prediction accuracy than the traditional method and the prediction stability is also improved.

Stroke constitutes a significant public health concern due to its impact on mortality and morbidity. This study investigates the utility of machine learning algorithms in predicting stroke and identifying key risk factors using data from the Suita study, comprising 7,389 participants and 53 variables. Initially, unsupervised K-prototype clustering categorized participants into risk clusters, while five supervised models including Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Light Gradient Boosted Machine (Light-GBM) were employed to predict stroke outcomes. Stroke incidence disparities among identified risk clusters using the unsupervised K-prototype clustering method are substantial, according to the findings. Supervised learning, particularly RF was a preferable option because of the higher levels of performance metrics. The Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method identified age, systolic blood pressure, hypertension, estimated glomerular filtration rate, metabolic syndrome, and blood glucose level as key predictors of stroke, aligning with findings from the unsupervised clustering approach in high-risk groups. Additionally, previously unidentified risk factors such as elbow joint thickness, fructosamine, hemoglobin, and calcium level demonstrate potential for stroke prediction. In conclusion, machine learning facilitated accurate stroke risk predictions and highlighted potential biomarkers, offering a data-driven framework for risk assessment and biomarker discovery.

In the dynamic landscape of the telecommunications industry, understanding and mitigating customer churn is paramount for maintaining competitive advantage and sustaining revenue streams. This comprehensive literature review delves into the intricacies of customer churn prediction, a crucial aspect in fortifying the bond between telecom businesses and their customers. The review methodically analyzes 11 articles published between 2000 and March 2024, spotlighting the strategic role of Customer Relationship Management and the prevalence of high churn rates that necessitate a shift from customer acquisition to retention strategies. Furthermore, the review navigates through the challenges inherent in churn prediction, including the complexities of managing large, imbalanced, and noisy datasets and the intricacies involved in model selection and optimization. Despite these challenges, the paper highlights the superior capability of machine learning techniques in handling complex datasets to provide accurate predictions, albeit acknowledging their practical complexities. The main aim of the study is to provide an overview, serving as a knowledge base for researchers interested in machine learning techniques within the realm of telecommunications.

This study introduces a novel predictive model for atomization droplet size, developed through comprehensive data collected under elevated temperature and pressure conditions using a twin swirl airblast nozzle. The model, grounded in flow instability theory, has been meticulously parameterized using the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. Through rigorous analysis, including analysis of variance (ANOVA), the model has demonstrated robust reliability and precision, with a maximum relative error of 19.3% and an average relative error of 6.8%. Compared to the classical atomization model by Rizkalla and Lefebvre, this model leverages theoretical insights and incorporates a range of interacting variables, enhancing its applicability and accuracy. Spearman correlation analysis reveals that air pressure and the air pressure drop ratio significantly negatively impact droplet size, whereas the fuel-air ratio (FAR) shows a positive correlation. Experimental validation at ambient conditions shows that the model is applicable with a reliability threshold of ≥0.13 and highlight the predominance of the pressure swirl mechanism over aerodynamic atomization at higher fuel flow rates (q > 1.25 kg/h). This research effectively bridges theoretical and practical perspectives, offering critical insights for the optimization of airblast nozzle design.

Elevated immunoglobulin E (IgE) levels are commonly associated with allergies. However, high IgE levels are also found in several other infectious and non-infectious disorders. Elevated IgE levels typically suggest allergies, eczema, or recurrent skin infections. Very high IgE levels are uncommon in patients with active eczema but typically reflect a monogenic atopic condition or inborn immune defects with an atopic phenotype. The aim of our research is to identify if the possible cause of high IgE levels is also dependent on external factors, age, or associated recurrent pathologies such as infections. To answer this question, we performed a one-year retrospective study that included 200 hospitalized children who had at least two viral or bacterial infections in the six months preceding hospitalization. Measurements of IgE and allergen panels (respiratory and digestive) using blood samples revealed that individuals who tested positive for the body’s synthesis of hyperimmunoglobulin E were not observably allergic to any potential allergens despite having higher total serum IgE. According to the results, there was a strong correlation between elevated IgE serum levels and a history of infectious diseases among the patients.

The refractive index of seawater is one of the essential parameters in ocean observation, so it is necessary to achieve high-precision seawater refractive index measurements. A seawater refractive index measurement system based on position-sensitive detectors is an effective means to achieve high-precision measurement of seawater refractive index. However, in the actual seawater refractive index measurement process, the impact of the measurement error caused by the jitter signal obtained from the measurement on the measurement results cannot be ignored. In this paper, we theoretically analyse the causes of the long jitter signals during seawater refractive index measurement and quantify the influencing factors. Through the analysis, it can be seen that the angle between the two windows in the refractive index measurement area of seawater causes a great error on the measurement results, so the angle between the two windows should be controlled within 2.06° in order to effectively reduce the measurement error. At the same time, the factors affecting the measurement accuracy of the position-sensitive detector are analysed, and the factors leading to the reduction of the measurement accuracy of the position-sensitive detector are mainly the background light, the size of the photosensitive surface, and the change of the temperature of the working environment. For the above factors, we add a narrow-band filter with a bandwidth of 0.9nm in front of the photosensitive surface of the position-sensitive detector during the construction of the measurement system, so as to filter out stray light other than the signal light source. On the premise of ensuring the measuring range of the refractive index of seawater, a position-sensitive detector with a photosensitive surface size of 4 mm×4 mm was selected. In order to reduce the temperature variation of the working environment of the position-sensitive detector, the measurement system was partitioned. In order to validate the testing error range of the optimised test system, standard seawater samples under the same conditions were measured. It can be seen that the jitter signal of the measurement system has been reduced from 0.0022mm before the optimisation to 0.0011mm after the optimisation, and the deviation of the refractive index has been reduced by 1.09×10−8RIU. The experimental results show that the refractive index of seawater has been effectively reduced by adjusting the optical path and the structure of the seawater refractive index measurement system.

Metabolites present in the hemolymph of honey bees play a crucial role in modulating the metamorphic process within the species. However, the precise alterations in metabolite composition, along with the associated variances and regulatory pathways implicated during the larvae-to-pupae metamorphosis of honey bees, remain incompletely elucidated. In this investigation, we gathered hemolymph samples from honey bee larvae at three distinct physiological stages-feeding, prepupal, and pupae and subjected them to metabolite analysis utilizing the liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) technique. Employing principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA), we identified significant differential metabolites and conducted a metabolic pathway analysis on those differentially up-regulated during the prepupal and pupae stages. Notably, metabolites up-regulated in the hemolymph of prepupal stage larvae primarily governed glucose metabolism and fat digestion and absorption, while those in pupae stage larvae were involved in regulating chitin and lipopolysaccharide precursor formation, as well as the biosynthesis of phenylalanine, tyrosine, and tryptophan. These findings bear significant implications for advancing our comprehension of the metamorphic processes in honey bees.

Thorough and precise gene structure annotations are essential for maximizing the benefits of genomic data and unveiling valuable genetic insights. The cucumber genome was first released in 2009 and updated in 2019. To increase the accuracy of predicted gene models, 64 published RNA-seq data and 9 new strand-specific RNA-seq data from multiple tissues were used for manual comparison with the gene models. The updated annotation file (version 2.0) contains increased 24,145 predicted genes from previous version (24317 genes) with a higher BUSCO value of 96.9%. 6231 and 1490 transcripts were adjusted and newly added, respectively, accounting for 31.99% of the overall gene tally. These newly added and adjust genes were renamed (CsaV3.1_XGXXXXX), while genes remaining unaltered preserve their original des ignations. A random selection of 21 modified/added genes were validated using RT-PCR analyses. Additionally, tissue-specific patterns of gene expression were examined using newly obtained transcriptome data with the revised gene prediction model. This improved annotation of cucumber genome will provide essential and accurate resources for studies in cucumber.

The main question proposed in this research is if different types of organizational approach, adapted from rapidly changing disciplines — such as IT industry, and software engineering in particular — could help overcome this gap by shortening the response time needed to analyze advanced solutions in accordance with changed circumstances, thus allowing for architectural programming to obtain different positions in the timeline of project planning and realization. We propose a novel methodology of architectural design as a self-reliant instrument inspired by Agile Manifesto and some of its instantiations, most notably by the Scrum Framework.

Wi-Fi fingerprinting positioning systems have been deployed for a long time in location-based services for indoor environments. Combining mobile crowdsensing and Wi-Fi fingerprinting systems could reduce the high cost for collecting the necessary data enabling the deployment of the resulting system for outdoor positioning in areas with dense Wi-Fi coverage. In this paper, we present the results attained in the designing and evaluation of an urban fingerprinting positioning system based on crowdsensed Wi-Fi measurements. We first asses the quality of the collected measurements, highlighting the influence of received signal strength on data collection. We then, evaluate the proposed system by comparing the influence of the crowdsensed fingerprints on the overall positioning accuracy for different scenarios. The evaluation helps gain valuable insight into the design and deployment of urban Wi-Fi positioning systems while also allowing the proposed system to match GPS-like accuracy in similar conditions.

On 17 October 1947, Niels Bohr was made a knight of the Order of the Elephant by the King of Denmark in view of his outstanding achievements and contributions to science. Bohr designed his own coat of arms that featured a pattern of Yin and Yang (Tai Chi symbol) to symbolize the wave-particle complementarity. However, Bohr’s Yin-Yang diagram (YYD) was neither drawn based on the principles of quantum mechanics, nor did it originate from the traditional Taoist YYD. Scientists still have doubts about the legitimacy of using YYD as the icon of the wave-particle complementarity, because the YYD belonging to quantum mechanics itself is unknown so far. This article reports the YYDs existing in quantum mechanics and justifies the role of YYD in the wave-particle duality by showing that any system, whether classical or quantum, has an ideal YYD as long as it satisfies Bohr’s principle of complementarity (BPC). The deviation of a deformed YYD from the ideal YYD indicates the extent to which a real system satisfies BPC. This article constructs the quantum YYD by the complex quantum trajectory of a particle tunneling via a step barrier, which displays the continuous transition between the wave behavior and the particle behavior. It appears that the YYD designed by Bohr in his coat of arms resembles the YYD generated by tunneling motion, not only in appearance but also in the governing equation.

All sensing systems have some inherent error. Often, these errors are systematic, and observations taken within a similar region of space and time can have correlated error structure. However, the data from these systems are frequently assumed to have completely independent and uncorrelated error. This work introduces a correlated error model for GNSS-reflectometry (GNSS-R) using observations from NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS). We validate our model against near-simultaneous observations between two CYGNSS satellites, and double difference our results with modeled observables to extract the correlated error structure due to the observing system itself. Our results are useful to catalogue for future GNSS-R missions and can be applied to construct an error covariance matrix for weather data assimilation.

In this paper, we shall introduce the interval-valued spatial error model. Based on the idea of least square method of single-valued case, we give the parameter estimator for interval-valued spatial error model. The theoretical properties of the proposed estimator are proved. Finally, we give the numerical analysis and a real example.

High-dimensional measurement error data are becoming more prevalent across various fields. Research on measurement error regression models has gained increasing attention due to the risk of drawing inaccurate conclusions if measurement errors are ignored. When the dimension p is larger than the sample size n, it is challenging to develop statistical inference methods for high-dimensional measurement error regression models due to the existence of bias, nonconvexity of objective function, high computational cost and many other difficulties. Over the past few years, some works have overcome the aforementioned difficulties and proposed several statistical inference methods. This paper mainly reviews the current development on estimation, hypothesis testing and variable screening methods for high-dimensional measurement error regression models and shows the theoretical results of these methods with some directions worthy of exploring for future research.

A method of accuracy error compensation for the time interval is examined, allowing to eliminate the dependence of accuracy error on the duration of measured intervals and minimising the influence of destabilising factors - ambient temperature changes and the initial deviation of the meter clock generator frequency from the nominal value. The compensation method is based on a calibration procedure that measures precise time intervals under conditions of changing ambient temperature. Then the dependence of the accuracy error on temperature for a particular meter is recorded. Based on these data, a correction table is compiled containing correction factors and temperature values at which these factors were determined. Under real measurement conditions, the correction factor corresponding to the current temperature is determined from the table for measured results correction. The table with correction factor values could be stored in the memory of the meter or processing computer. Experimental verification of the method showed that applying a correction for a meter with a standard XO class clock generator (certificated instability of ±50 ppm) can obtain an equivalent clock generator instability of ±0.15 ppm. The application of the method is efficient in cases where the use of high-end clocking to ensure the required measurement accuracy is not economically feasible.

Real-world time series data sets contain a combination of linear and nonlinear patterns, making the time series forecasting problem more challenging. In this paper, a new hybrid methodology is introduced for forecasting univariate time series data sets using a multiplicative error modeling approach. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is combined with an autoregressive neural network (ARNN) for improving the predictions of individual forecast models. The proposed multiplicative ARIMA-ARNN model glorifies the chances of capturing the different combinations of linear and nonlinear patterns in time series. The model shows outstanding performance on six standard time-series data sets compared to other widely used single and hybrid forecasting models.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing the textile industry by improving the prediction of fabric properties and handfeel, which are essential for assessing textile quality and performance. However, the practical application and translation of AI-predicted results into real-world textile production remain unclear, posing challenges for widespread adoption. This paper systematically reviews AI-driven techniques for predicting these characteristics by focusing on model mechanisms, dataset diversity, and prediction accuracy. Among 811 papers initially identified, 26 were selected for in-depth analysis through both bibliometric and content analysis. The review categorizes and evaluates various AI approaches, including machine learning, deep learning, and hybrid models, across different types of fabric. Despite significant advances, challenges remain, such as ensuring model generalization and managing complex fabric behavior. Future research should focus on developing more robust models, integrating sustainability, and refining feature extraction techniques. This review highlights the critical gaps in the literature and provides practical insights to enhance AI-driven prediction of fabric properties, thus guiding future textile innovations.

This work presents a novel approach for the study of the movement of droplets on inclined surfaces under the influence of gravity and chemical heterogeneities. The developed numerical methodology uses data-driven modeling to extend the applicability limits of an analytically derived reduced-order model for the contact line velocity. More specifically, while the reduced-order model is able to capture the effects of the chemical heterogeneities to a satisfactory degree, it does not account for gravity. To alleviate this shortcoming, datasets generated from direct numerical simulations are used to train a data-driven model for the contact line velocity, which is based on the Fourier neural operator and corrects the reduced-order model predictions to match the reference solutions. This hybrid surrogate model, which comprises of both analytical and data-driven components, is then integrated in time to simulate the droplet movement, offering a speedup of five orders of magnitude compared to direct numerical simulations. The performance of this hybrid model is quantified and assessed in different wetting scenarios, by considering various inclination angles and values for the Bond number, demonstrating the accuracy of the predictions as long as the adopted parameters lie within the ranges considered in the training dataset.

Background: Vestibular Neuritis (VN) induces Acute Vestibular Syndrome (AVS). This study aimed to identify predictive factors of VN recovery by healing and/or compensation. Methods: In this longitudinal and prospective study, 40 patients were included. The first assessment (T0) included medical history taking (general and specific), for cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs), a battery of diagnostic tests, bithermal caloric test (BCT), video Head Impulse Test (VHIT) and skull vibration induced nystagmus (SVIN). All patients also completed a Dizziness Handicap Inventory (DHI). All assessments were repeated 90±15 days (T3) later. Subjective criteria compensation were based on DHI total score and objective criteria compensation on the instrumental test results. Four groups of patients (A, B, C, D) were delineated by combining patients with normal vs abnormal vestibular tests and patients with normal vs abnormal DH. Results: CVRFs were associated with a poorer recovery of symptoms but not the age or BMI. Vestibular tests mainly BCT (canal paresis %), VHIT (lateral semicircular canal gain) and SVINT (nystagmus slow phase velocity) recovered within normal values in 20%, 20%, 26% of cases respectively at T3 for the 40-patient group. Conclusions: Vascular risk factors (hypercholesterolemia) are correlated with patients who do not recover their symptoms either by healing or compensation. The evolution did not show any significant difference between high or low frequency vestibular tests in patients recovering from their symptoms. However, some patients with objective recovery may continue to show persisting subjective symptoms.

Network Function Virtualization (NFV) allows for the dynamic provisioning of Virtualized Network Functions, adapting services to the complex and real-time network environment for enhanced network performance. Despite the benefits of NFV, virtual network functions (VNFs) migration and the energy consumption pose significant challenges due to the dynamic nature of the physical network, especially in the edge-cloud continuum network. Currently, people tackle this challenge by predicting the network traffic and then proactively migrating the VNFs using the predicted values. There are two challenges here. First, when SFCs belong to different network service providers, the historical network traffic data is held by the service providers, and they are reluctant to share the historical data due to privacy concerns. Without the historical network traffic data of each SFC, the resource provider that owns the underlying network cannot effectively predict the network traffic; in addition, without the feedback of the migration results of the underlying physical network, the network traffic prediction will be difficult to match the needs of the physical network. In this manuscript, we solve the problem of network traffic prediction in the NFV-based edge-cloud continuum network for multiple network service providers. We aim to improve migration performance and reduce energy consumption while ensuring resource and latency requirements. To protect the privacy of each network service provider, we apply an FL algorithm. After that, to improve the migration performance, we tailor the loss function. In the loss function, factors such as the number of migrations, the number of migration failures, and the energy consumption of the NFV-based edge-cloud continuum network are added. Additionally, to obtain the results of the SFC migration, we develop a mathematical model for the problem of multiple network service providers in the NFV-based network. The effectiveness of our algorithm is evaluated through extensive simulations, and the results show a significant reduction in the number of migrated nodes and energy consumption while improving the SFC acceptance ratio compared to state-of-the-art schemes which only use the difference between predicted and actual flows to define the loss function.

The advent of modern satellite technology has transformed observational astronomy and astrophysics, offering unprecedented insights into the large-scale behavior of gravitation and challenging established cosmological models. This technological progress has reinvigorated the study of relativistic cosmology, leading to a critical reassessment of foundational assumptions, particularly the cosmological principle, which posits that the universe is homogeneous and isotropic on large scales. While this principle underpins the Standard Cosmological Model and the Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker metric, emerging data has increasingly been challenging its validity. Central to this investigation are the redshift-distance and light intensity-distance relations, essential for testing cosmological models. The integration of both parametric and nonparametric redshift models provides a more comprehensive analysis, addressing discrepancies in our understanding of the universe's structure and evolution. However, unresolved mysteries, particularly concerning dark matter and dark energy, complicate these models. This research critically examines the cosmological principle using the latest observational data and scrutinizes the Friedmann model's assumptions. The study shows that galaxy formation was most rapid in the early universe, especially within the redshift range of , with notable peaks around at and These two characteristic redshift values, predicted by our standard Friedmann redshift model used in this work, are confirmed by the observational data utilized in this research. The research also highlights that dark matter plays a significantly more critical role than dark energy in the process of galaxy formation. While dark energy primarily affects the large-scale expansion of the universe, dark matter seems to go beyond the domination of local galaxy formation and evolution of cosmic structures. These findings underscore the limitations of current models and contribute to the ongoing refinement of cosmological theories, offering a clearer understanding of the universe’s evolution.

This paper describes a system that is used to gather data from Smart Home sensors measuring energy consumption, analyze and predict future consumption by using machine learning algorithm for prediction. It focuses on the architecture of the system as well as the need for such system to exist in practice – why the consumption should be measured at all and how that measurement can be put to good use for achieving energy efficiency.

Computational simulations of three-dimensional flow around a NACA 0018 wing with an aspect ratio of AR=5 are carried out using the Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) equations with the Shear-Stress Transport turbulence model closure. Simulations were performed to capture the aerodynamic stall hysteresis using a developed Pseudo-Transient Continuation (PTC) method based on a dual time step approach in the CFD code OpenFOAM. The flow was characterized by an incompressible Mach number of M=0.12 and a moderate Reynolds number Re=0.67×10^6. The results obtained indicate the presence of a noticeable aerodynamic hysteresis in the static dependencies of the force and moment coefficients, as well as the manifestation of bi-stable flow separation patterns, accompanied by the development of asymmetry in the stall zone. The URANS simulation results are in good agreement with the experimental data obtained for the NACA 0018 finite aspect ratio wing from the low-speed wind tunnel under the same test conditions. A new phenomenological bifurcation model of aerodynamic stall hysteresis under static and dynamic conditions is formulated, which is proven to be able to closely match the experimental data.

Kisspeptin, a key neuropeptide derived from the KISS1 gene, is renowned for its critical role in regulating the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis and reproductive hormone secretion. Beyond its primary function in reproductive biology, emerging research has illuminated its influence in various cancers, mediating significant effects through its interaction with the G-protein coupled receptor, Kisspeptin receptor. This interaction has been implicated in modulating cellular pro-cesses such as proliferation and metastasis, making it a potential target for therapeutic interven-tion. Our study initially screened ten kisspeptin-10 analogs through cytotoxic effects of kisspep-tin-10 (KP10) and its analogs in several cancer types, including cervical, prostate, breast, and gastric cancers, with a particular focus on cervical cancer where the most profound effects were observed. Further exploration using kinase array assays revealed that these analogs specifically alter key kinases involved in cancer progression. Migration assays demonstrated a substantial decrease in cell motility, and Bioluminiscence Resonance Energy Transfer assays confirmed these analogs strong interactions with the kisspeptin receptor. Overall, our results indicate that these KP10 analogs not only hinder cervical cancer cell proliferation but also curtail migration through targeted modulation of kinase signaling, suggesting their potential as therapeutic ayfgents in managing cervical cancer progression. This comprehensive approach underscores the therapeutic promise of exploiting kisspeptin signaling in cancer treatment strategies.

The effect of the heterogeneity in sex factor is considered in the Markovian manpower modeling model. The estimation of the transition probability matrix of the staff flow was done using the maximum likelihood method. The expected future durations of the individuals in the manpower system were obtained under the aggregated and disaggregated (male and female) staff flow as well as their variances. Test for the heterogeneity of the staff based on sex factor was performed and the result of the heterogeneity test shows that there is difference between the disaggregated staff flows. The computed entrant probabilities also indicate that the male group has higher probabilities of attaining higher grades than the female group.

By repeated unloading and loading of the excavation dynamic and static loads, repeated train dynamic and static loads of multi-factors, the underpass tunnel, cross tunnel engineering influence area rock layer, the existing tunnel structure of the three constitutes a multifaceted structure, multi-factor interaction system. Existing tunnels into the prediction theory model of the new tunnel excavation process of dynamic and static loads, dynamic and static loads of existing tunnels are mostly analyzed individually, the results of synergistic analysis needs to be improved. Based on the theory of the current layer method, the paper comprehensively considers the stiffness of the existing tunnel, the stiffness of the new tunnel, the excavation method load and the existing tunnel load, coupled with Peck's empirical formula, the theoretical model of deformation prediction for excavation of a two-lane highway tunnel under the tunnel through the existing railroad is proposed, and verified and optimized by numerical calculations and monitoring data, which proves the applicability and reliability of the theoretical model in the similar strata and the project promotion.

Field of Research This research study investigates the role of distributed leadership and culture within small enterprises in Malta, an area in which there has been very limited research. It focuses on the interaction between these two elements and their impact on organizational behaviour and effectiveness. Several studies (Jardon et al 2019; Cope et al., 2011; de Oliveira et al., 2015; Mohanty et al., 2012;) suggest that effective leadership and culture are vital elements in the successful endeavours of small organizations. Schein (2006) further asserts that they are two different faces on the same coin and the dyadic interaction characterizes “how leaders create culture and how culture defines and creates leaders”. Distributed Leadership is a systematic practice of interactions and synergies between leaders, followers, and the situation (Spillane 2013). It is different from traditional leadership, which involves top-down management because it tends to be more democratic and participatory, whereby influence and decision-making are shared among multiple individuals rather than being controlled by a single leader. (Xhemajli et al. 2022) Methodology Adopting a naturalistic approach and guided by an interpretivist, constructivist epistemological stance, this research delves into the intricate interplay between leadership and culture within small businesses. The chosen research methodology employs Grounded Theory, recognized for its robust and systematic process facilitating the observation of patterns through intensive iterative and highly analytical procedures (Charmaz, 2015).In the initial stages of field research, characterized by 'responsive interviewing' (Rubin and Rubin, 2012), data sampling commenced with convenience sampling. This initial phase gradually evolved into a refined strategy incorporating selective sampling and theoretical sampling (Corbin and Strauss, 2015). The shift in sampling approaches reflects a deliberate focus on collecting data based on its specific contribution to the development and comprehension of the dimensions, properties, and characteristics of key concepts.The induction of theory is a product of successive comparative analyses, involving the systematic comparison of data points to identify both similarities and variations. Abductive reasoning is integral throughout the analytical process, with particular emphasis during constant comparative analysis of categories, leading to theoretical integration (Charmaz, 2006). This meticulous approach aligns with the assertion of Strauss and Corbin (2015) that grounding theory in data enhances the likelihood of deriving theories that authentically reflect reality.The key advantage of using this approach is that the analysis carried out goes beyond deep exploration and rich description and actually develops a framework that explains the phenomena observed (Parker and Roffey, 1997, p.218). This is very important if the findings are to contribute to the knowledge enhancement of any field of practiceThe culmination of this research effort is the presentation of a set of interconnected concepts, intricately woven together into an emergent parsimonious model (Corbin and Strauss, 2015). This model serves to explain the dynamic interplay between leadership and culture, elucidating its tangible impact on the effectiveness of small enterprises. Research Contribution:Implications for Practice This research contributes to the literature on leadership and organizational culture in small enterprises, particularly in the context of Malta where such studies are scarce. By providing an initial exploration of these phenomena and their impact on organizational behavior, this paper lays the groundwork for further inquiry into this important area. Furthermore, the study offers practical insights for leaders of small enterprises by elucidating leadership behaviors observed in established organizations. Through applied cases, it demonstrates how the abstract concept of culture can be translated into a practical instrument that supports leadership and organizational development. This not only enriches the understanding of leadership dynamics but also provides tangible strategies for implementation. Moreover, the research contributes empirical evidence on the development of leadership functions within small enterprises, emphasizing the potential of shared and distributed leadership models. By grounding its findings in data, the study equips leaders with a deeper understanding of how these leadership approaches can shape organizational development, fostering more effective management practices in small businesses. Methodologically, the adoption of Grounded Theory methodology showcases its efficacy in exploring complex management phenomena. By employing this approach, the researchers were able to gather rich descriptions and develop an explanatory framework, highlighting its applicability in studying nuanced organizational dynamics. Implications for Policy and Theory This research also holds significant implications for policymakers, academic researchers and institutions involved in supporting small businesses. By providing insights into distributed leadership and cultural influences on organizational effectiveness, it offers a basis for informed policy formulation and support mechanisms. The conceptual model emerging from this study serves as a foundation for designing more targeted policies that cater to the unique needs of small enterprises. By understanding the intricacies of leadership dynamics and cultural contexts, policymakers can develop interventions that foster a conducive environment for small business growth and sustainability. Additionally, academic researchers can use these findings to further refine theoretical frameworks and empirical studies in the field, contributing to ongoing scholarly dialogue and knowledge advancement.

The dielectric constant (ε) reflects the ability of a material to align and orient electrical dipoles within its structure in response to an externally applied electric field; the greater the polarizability of molecules, the greater the value of dielectric constant. In this study a data set of 86 polymers was investigated to develop a structure-property quantitative relations (QSPR) model to predict the dielectric constant in polymers. An initial set of 1273 descriptors was used to select a best set of descriptors and to construct two machine learning models with Gradient Boosting Regressor (GB_A and GB_B). The best performing model (GB_A) with 8 descriptors, exhibited a performance of (R2train) = 0.938 and (R2test) = 0.802. The models were internally validated by 5 folds cross-validation, demonstrating robustness. Additionally, using the Accumulative Local Effect (ALE) technique, we analyzed the relationship between the 8 descriptors involved and the impact of these descriptors to dielectric constant of polymers.

Fibroin-chitosan composites, especially those containing nanohydroxyapatite, show potential for bone tissue regeneration. The physicochemical properties of these biocomposites depend on the compatibility between their components. In this study, the intermolecular interactions of fibroin and chitosan were analyzed using a molecular dynamics approach. Two types of systems were investigated: one containing acetic acid and the other containing calcium (Ca²⁺) and hydrogen phosphate (HPO₄²⁻) ions mimicking hydroxyapatite conditions. After obtaining the optimal equilibrium structures, the distributions of several types of interactions including hydrogen bonds, ionic contacts, and hydrophobic contacts along with the structural and energetical features were examined. The calculated binding energy values for the fibroin-chitosan complexes confirm their remarkable stability. The high affinity of fibroin for chitosan can be explained by the formation of a dense network of interactions between considered biopolymers. These interactions were found to be primarily hydrogen bonds and ionic contacts involving ALA, ARG, ASN, ASP, GLN, GLU, GLY, LEU, PRO, SER, THR, TYR, and VAL residues. As it was established, the complexation of fibroin with chitosan maintains the β-sheet conformation of the peptide. β-Sheet fragments in fibroin are involved in the formation of significant amount of hydrogen bonds and ionic contacts with chitosan.

The Huaniushan lead-zinc-silver deposit is a hydrothermal sedimentary exhalative deposit (SEDEX). The mining area has complex geological conditions. The main tectonic structure in the area is the Huaheitan-Shuangfengshan Fault (F3), which controls the distribution of strata and magmatic rocks. Since the discovery of the Huaniushan Lead-zinc-silver polymetallic deposit, there are diverse understandings of the deposit's genesis and mineralization law, making it challenging to meet the geological interpretation requirements of the Huaniushan Lead-zinc-silver polymetallic deposit. Moreover, a single geophysical exploration method utilizes limited rock physical parameters, making it difficult to effectively characterize underground structures. The integrated exploration of multiple geophysical methods can effectively integrate the geophysical characteristics of different rock physical parameters, reducing the multiplicity and uncertainty of geophysical data inverse interpretation. The comprehensive interpretation of three-dimensional inversion based on various geophysical data, the construction of geological-geophysical models based on geological grounds, the establishment of hidden ore exploration and positioning, and the rapid evaluation of geophysical technology systems are the current development trends in mineral exploration. In light of this, this paper conducts research on the three-dimensional inversion interpretation of the heavy magnetoelectric exploration data of the Huaniushan sedimentary exhalative deposit lead-zinc-silver polymetallic deposit in the mining area and constructs a three-dimensional geological-geophysical model of the study area based on the obtained three-dimensional physical structure of the underground three-dimensional density, magnetization intensity, resistivity, and polarizability structure of the study area, in combination with the information of related geology and drilling holes. It comprehensively interprets the favorable mineralization parts in the study area.

The fixed and random effects models are popular methods for identifying the causal effects of treatment. First, I introduce the two-way fixed effects model and show a class of the estimators for the random effects models. Misidentification may occur in these models due to the treatment effect heterogeneity. Then, I propose the differential error component models to address such problems while the models exclude the fixed effects of units and time periods and consider the random effects of units and time periods. Meanwhile, I present a simulation of a staggered design and revisit the application in (De Chaisemartin and D'Haultfoeuille, 2020). The results demonstrate that one additional newspaper increases the 0.31% average effect of the presidential turnout and the 1.05% average effect when the newspapers’ changes are non-negative, where the proposed estimators are robust and efficient.

The redshifted 21 cm line signal is a powerful probe of the cosmic dawn and the epoch of reionisation. The global spectrum can potentially be detected with a single antenna and spectrometer. However, this measurement requires an extremely accurate calibration of the instrument to facilitate the separation of the 21 cm signal from the much brighter foregrounds and possible variations in the instrument response. Understanding how the measurement errors propagate in a realistic instrument system and affect system calibration is the focus of this work. We simulate a 21 cm global spectrum observation based on the noise wave calibration scheme. We focus on how measurement errors in reflection coefficients affect the noise temperature, and how typical errors impact on the recovery of the 21 cm signal, especially in the frequency domain. Results show that for our example set up, a typical VNA measurement error in the magnitude of the reflection coefficients of the antenna, receiver, open cable which are 0.001, 0.001, 0.002 (linear) respectively would result in a 200 mK deviation on the detected signal, and a typical measurement error of 0.48∘, 0.78∘, 0.15∘ in the respective phases would cause a 40 mK deviation. The VNA measurement error can greatly affect the result of a 21 cm global spectrum experiment using this calibration technique, and such a feature could be mistaken for or be combined with the 21 cm signal.

Antiviral peptides (AVPs) represent a promising strategy for addressing the global challenge of viral infections and their growing resistance to traditional drugs. Lab-based AVP discovery methods are resource-intensive, highlighting the need for efficient computational alternatives. In this study, we developed five non-trained but supervised Multi-Query Similarity Search Models (MQSSMs) integrated into the StarPep toolbox. Rigorous testing and validation across diverse AVP datasets confirmed the models' robustness and reliability. The top-performing model, M13+, demonstrated impressive results with an accuracy of 0.969 and a Matthew’s correlation coeffi-cient of 0.71. To assess their competitiveness, the top five models were benchmarked against 14 publicly available machine learning and deep learning AVP predictors. The MQSSMs outper-formed these predictors, highlighting their efficiency in terms of resource demand and public ac-cessibility. Another significant achievement of this study is the creation of the most comprehensive dataset of antiviral sequences to date.

The AUC-ROC is a widespread measure to assess the performance of a binary classification model across various discrimination thresholds. Yet, it is not apt for unbalanced class problems and is misleading for early retrieval. For instance, link prediction in complex networks is an unbalanced early retrieval problem, whose goal is to offer a ranking of the nonobserved network links, prioritizing a small cohort of positive links (for which we are sure the labels are reliable) on top of a list largely populated by unlabeled links (for which the labels are uncertain). Differently from binary classification, here the evaluation focuses on how the predictor prioritizes the positive class, because the negative class does not exist and is replaced by an unlabeled class. For decades, scholars have been investigating the necessity to correct and to generalize the AUC-ROC to work for both unbalanced classification and early retrieval evaluation, this is requested in many applied domains of computational science. Here we propose the area under the magnified ROC (AUC-mROC), a new measure that adjusts the standard AUC-ROC to work for unbalanced early retrieval problems such as link prediction. Finally, we introduce the area under the generalized ROC (AUC-gROC), which unifies both AUC-mROC and AUC-ROC to provide a universal and reliable evaluation measure that can work for both classification and early retrieval problems, regardless of class proportion.This discovery represents a critical achievement, culminating in success after decades of contentious research. Its solution promises to significantly impact various domains within applied computational science.

With the significant annual increase in the market demand for biopesticides, the industrial production demand for predatory mites, which hold the largest market share among biopesticides, has also been rising.To achieve efficient and low energy consumption control of predatory mite breeding environmental parameters, accurate estimation of breeding environmental parameters is necessary. This paper collects and pre-processing hourly time-series data of temperature and humidity from industrial breeding environments. Time series prediction models such as SVR, LSTM, GRU, and LSTNet are applied to model and predict historical data of the breeding environment. Experiments validate that the LSTNet model is more suitable for such environmental modeling. To further improve prediction accuracy, the training data for the LSTNet model is enhanced using hierarchical clustering of time-series features. After augmentation, the root mean square error (RMSE) of temperature prediction decreased by 27.3%, and the RMSE of humidity prediction decreased by 32.8%, significantly improving the accuracy of multi-step predictions and providing substantial industrial application value.

Organic carbon (OC) accumulation in soil mitigates greenhouse gases emission and improves soil health. We aimed to quantify the dynamics of OC stock in soils and to justify technologies that allow annual increasing OC stock in the arable soil layer by 4‰. We based the study on a field experiment established in 1936 in the 9-field crop rotation with a fallow on Chernozem in European Russia. The RothC version 26.3 was used for the reproducing and forecasting OC dynamics. In all fertilizer applications at FYM background, there was a decrease in the OC stock with preferable loss of active OC, except the period 1964-71 with 2-5‰ annual OC increase. The model estimated the annual C input in the arable soil layer as 1,900 kg·ha-1. For increasing OC stocks by 4‰ per year, one should raise input to 2400 kg·ha-1. Simulation was made for 2016-2090 using climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Crop rotation without fallowing provided an initial increase of 3‰ and 6‰ of stocks in the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios accordingly, followed by a loss in accumulated OC. Simulation demonstrates difficulties to increase OC concentration in Chernozems under intensive farming and potential capacity to rise OC stock through yield management.

The Mara River basin (MRB) has a world-famous ecosystem, but the vegetation has been damaged due to economic development in recent years, and there is little known about the area that will experience severe vegetation damage in the future. Based on the vegetation vulnerability system, principal component analysis, and three CMIP6 scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), vegetation vulnerability was calculated in the base period (2010-2019), near-term period (2020-2059) and long-term period (2060-2099) in the MRB. The spatial cluster of vegetation vulnerability was revealed by spatial correlation analysis, and the transition of vegetation vulnerability of different periods was analyzed by stochastic matrix. The results showed that in all periods, the vulnerability showed a high-high cluster in the east, and a low-low cluster midstream and downstream. From the stochastic matrix, the area of high vulnerability increased the least under the SSP1-2.6, while it increased the most under the SSP5-8.5. The vegetation vulnerability upstream increased the most from the base period to the near-term period and long-term period in the MRB. By comparing the vegetation vulnerability under different scenarios, and pointing out the areas with the highest vulnerability increase, this study can better provide comprehensive decision-making for vegetation protection in the MRB.

This study proposes and validates a novel combustion control system for Oil-Fired Boilers aimed at reducing air pollutant emissions through flame image prediction. The proposed system is easily applicable to existing ships. Traditional proportional combustion control systems supply fuel and air at fixed ratios according to the set steam load, without considering the emission of air pollutants. To address this, a stable and immediate control system is proposed, which adjusts the air supply to modify the combustion state. The combustion control system utilizes oxygen concentration predictions from flame images via SEF+SVM as control inputs, and applies Internal Model Control (IMC)-based Proportional-Integral (PI) control for real-time combustion control. Due to the complexity of modeling the image-based system, IMC parameter tuning through experimentation is essential for achieving effective control performance. Experiments conducted on a 3000 kg/h marine oil-fired boiler in actual operation optimized the controller parameters for stability and responsiveness, and validated their effectiveness. The results demonstrate the potential of the proposed system to improve combustion efficiency and reduce emissions of air pollutants. This study provides a feasible and effective solution for enhancing the environmental performance of marine oil-fired boilers. Given its ease of application to existing ships, it is expected to contribute to sustainable air pollution reduction across the maritime environment.

Our recent analysis of empirical limit order flow data in financial markets reveals a power-law distribution in limit order cancellation times. These times are modeled using a discrete probability mass function derived from the Tsallis q-exponential distribution, closely aligned with the second form of the Pareto distribution. We elucidate this distinctive power-law statistical property through the lens of agent heterogeneity in trading activity and asset possession. Our study introduces a novel modeling approach that combines fractional Lévy stable motion for limit order inflow with this power-law distribution for cancellation times, significantly enhancing the prediction of order imbalances. This model not only addresses gaps in current financial market modeling but also extends to broader contexts such as opinion dynamics in social systems, capturing the finite lifespan of opinions. Characterized by stationary increments and a departure from self-similarity, our model provides a unique framework for exploring long-range dependencies in time series. This work paves the way for more precise financial market analyses and offers new insights into the dynamic nature of opinion formation in social systems.

Although the water absorption feature (WAF) at 970 nm is not very well-defined, it may be used alongside other indices to estimate the canopy water content. The individual performance of a number of existing vegetation water content (VWC) indices against the WAF is assessed using linear regression model. We developed a new Combined Vegetation Water Index (CVWI) by merging indices to boost the weak absorption feature. CVWI showed a promise in assessing the vegetation water status derived from the 970 nm absorption wavelength. CVWI was able to differentiate two groups of dataset when regressed against the absorption feature. CVWI could be seen as an easy and robust method for vegetation water content studies using hyperspectral field data.

Formula feeding, as an alternative to breastfeeding, offers benefits such as convenience and consistent nutrition. Among the drawbacks of formula feeding, however, is potential dilution or concentration errors in the of formula during preparation that may lead to infant health issues. The present study aimed to investigate the accuracy of caregiver measurements as they prepared infant formula under multiple conditions, compared with manufacturer specifications. A diverse sample of caregivers (N = 84) participated in this cross-over experimental study. Participants hand-scooped infant formula powder and poured water to prepare 4oz and 7oz feedings, using both a standardized set of infant formula products and participants’ own products. Linear mixed effects models were used to estimate fixed effects of target amount (4oz versus 7oz) and products (participant versus researcher) on mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of measurement. Across all conditions MAPE was significantly greater for measuring powder than for water (9.0% vs. 4.4%; p<0.001) with a combined powder and water MAPE at 13.0%. Greater measurement error was associated with the odd-sized 7oz preparation and participants’ own products. We observed considerable variability and substantial error during infant formula preparation, particularly for hand-scooping of powder, which tended toward higher values than the theoretical gold standard.

Academic publishing is undergoing a highly transformative process, and many rules and value systems that were in place for years are being challenged in unprecedented forms leading to the evolution of novel ways of dealing with new pressures. One of the most important aspects of an integrated and valid academic literature is the ability to screen publications for errors during peer review to weed out mistakes, fraud and inconsistencies, such that the final published product represents a product that has value, intellectually, and otherwise. It is difficult to claim the existence of perfect manuscripts. The level of errors that exist in a manuscript will depend on the rigor of the research group and of the peer review process that was used to screen that paper. When errors slip into a final published paper, either through honest error or misconduct, and are not detected during peer review and editorial screening, but are spotted during post-publication peer review, an opportunity is created to set the record straight, and to correct it. To date, the most common forms of correcting the literature have been errata, corrigenda, expressions of concern, and retractions. Despite this range of corrective measures, which represent artificially created corrals around pockets of imperfect literature, certain cases do not quite fit this mold, and new suggested measures for correcting the literature have been proposed, including manuscript versioning, amendments, partial retractions and retract and replace. In this commentary, a discussion of the evolving correction of the literature is provided, as are perspectives of the risks and benefits of such new measures to improve it.

Accurate diagnosis for the 400 million people with rare diseases is critical for healthcare decisions, prognosis, understanding disease mechanisms, and identification of treatments. Despite advances in genome sequencing, barriers such as high interpretation costs, diagnostic expertise, throughput associated delays, and uncertain variant classifications persist, with demand exceeding capacity. Many variant classification methods focus narrowly on specific consequences, leading to the use of complex integrative pipelines that often overlook transcript variability and lack prediction transparency. To overcome these limitations, we introduce DITTO. This transparent, transcript-aware machine-learning method demonstrates superior overall performance in accuracy, recall, and precision when compared to existing tools. DITTO is publicly available at https://github.com/uab-cgds-worthey/DITTO

During the hand-eye calibration process of the manipulator, the Euclidean distance error of the calibration results cannot be calculated because the true values of the hand-eye conversion matrix cannot be obtained. In this paper, a new method of projection error analysis is presented. Error analysis is carried out by using a priori knowledge that the location of AR markers is fixed in the calibration process. The coordinates of the AR marker center point are reprojected to the pixel coordinate system, and then compared with the true pixel coordinates of the AR marker center point obtained by corner detection or manual labeling in order to obtain the Euclidean distance between the two coordinates as the basis for error analysis. Experimental results show that the proposed optimization method can greatly improve the accuracy of hand-eye calibration results.

This paper proposes a novel hybrid control strategy for quadrotor unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) based on bio-inspired neural dynamics. This strategy addresses the velocity jump issue prevalent in traditional backstepping control and the control signal chattering problem common in traditional sliding mode control. The control system comprises an outer-loop bio-inspired backstepping controller and an inner-loop bio-inspired sliding mode controller, ensuring smooth trajectory tracking even in the presence of external disturbances. The stability of the quadrotor UAV control system is rigorously analyzed using Lyapunov stability theory. Extensive comparative simulation experiments are conducted to assess the robustness and effectiveness of the control system. Results demonstrate superior trajectory tracking performance of the proposed control system compared to other control systems for quadrotor UAVs.

Balancing the levels of ammonia, in poultry facilities plays a role in enhancing the welfare and productivity of animals. Various environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, ammonia concentrations, carbon dioxide concentration and exposure to light have an impact on the wellbeing and efficiency of poultry. It is essential to monitor these elements to achieve outcomes necessitating practical, reliable and cost-effective solutions. Leveraging the Internet of Things (IoT) in conjunction with LoRa-WAN (Long Range Wide Area Network) technology presents an opportunity in the industry by enhancing connectivity among devices and facilitating real time data transmission. This research introduces a hardware and software setup for monitoring conditions at poultry farms through LoRa WAN and IoT technologies. More-over researchers employed Random Forest Machine Learning prediction models to tune the concentration of Ammonia (NH3) in poultry facilities across a wide area or multiple Poultry houses. Comparative assessments were conducted to evaluate the proposed system against devices revealing a correlation exceeding 0.9830 between the sensors and standard equipment while costing 28% less than traditional tools. The prototype displayed outcomes underscoring its potential, for managing poultry facilities across multiple farms with centralized oversight.

Multimodal knowledge graph completion necessitates the integration of information from multiple modalities (such as images and text) into the structural representation of entities to improve link prediction. However, most existing studies have overlooked the interaction between different modalities. To address this issue, this paper proposed a Transformer-based knowledge graph link prediction model (MM-Transformer) that fuses multimodal features. Different modal encoders are employed to extract structural, visual and textual features, and hybrid key-value calculations are performed on features from different modalities based on the Transformer architecture. The similarities of textual tags to structural tags and visual tags are calculated and aggregated respectively, and multimodal entity representations are modeled and optimized to reduce the heterogeneity of the representations. Experimental results demonstrate that, compared to the current multimodal state-of-the-art methods, the proposed method achieves significant performance improvements in knowledge graph link prediction tasks. This proves that the proposed method effectively addresses the problem of multimodal feature fusion in knowledge graph link prediction tasks.

This research investigates the complex transformation of the Baltic Clean and Dirty Tankers markets from 1998 to 2023. Our study quantifies the market multifractality in two distinct periods, from 1998 to 2010 and 2010 to 2023. We compare multifractal measures of the original, surrogated, and shuffled data, which indicate high multifractality and a complex market structure influenced by temporal organization and inherent volatility. Shuffled data analysis emphasizes the critical role of temporal sequences within market behaviour. Additionally, the study delves into external factors such as regulatory changes, economic disturbances, technological innovation, and environmental concerns contributing to market complexity. A distinct shift in multifractal values between the two periods suggests an evolution from crisis-induced complexities to a market influenced by diversified and modern dynamics. Our findings offer a concise understanding of the multifractal nature of the tanker markets and how global crises can impact the markets, emphasizing the importance of considering systemic risks in freight market analysis.

In this paper we compare the effects of forecasting demand using individual (disaggregated) components versus first aggregating the components either fully or into several clusters. Demand streams are assumed to follow autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. Using individual demand streams will always lead to a superior forecast compared to any aggregates, however we show that if several aggregated clusters are formed in a structured manner then these subaggregated clusters will lead to a forecast with minimal increase in mean-squared forecast error. We show this result based on theoretical MSFE obtained directly from the models generating the clusters as well as estimated MSFE obtained directly from simulated demand observations. We suggest a pivot-algorithm, that we call Pivot Clustering, to create these clusters. We also provide theoretical results to investigate sub-aggregation, including for special cases such as, aggregating MA(1) streams and ARMA streams with similar or same parameters.