Estimating parameters for multiple datasets can be time consuming, especially when the number of datasets is large. One solution is to sample from multiple datasets simultaneously using Bayesian methods such as adaptive multiple importance sampling (AMIS). Here we use the AMIS approach to fit a von Misses distribution to multiple datasets for wind trajectories derived from a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model driven from a 3D meteorological data. The primary objective is to characterise the uncertainties in wind trajectories in a form that can be used as inputs for predictive models of wind-dispersed insect pests and pathogens of agricultural crops for use in evaluating risk and in planning mitigation actions. Our results show that AMIS can significantly improve the efficiency of parameter inference for multiple datasets.

Floods are a common natural disaster whose severity in terms of duration, water resource volume, peak and accumulated rainfall-based damage are likely to differ significantly for different geographical regions. In this paper, we first propose a novel hourly flood index (SWRI24−hr−S), derived from normalising the existing 24-hourly water resources index (WRI24−hr−S) in literature, to monitor flash flood risks on an hourly scale. The proposed SWRI24−hr−S is adopted to identify a flood situation and derive its characteristics, such as the duration (D), volume (V) and peak (Q). The comprehensive result analysis establishes the practical utility of SWRI24−hr−S in identifying flood situations at seven study sites in Fiji between 2014 and 2018 and deriving their characteristics (i.e., D, V, and Q). Secondly, this study develops a vine copula-probabilistic risk analysis system that models the joint distribution of flood characteristics (i.e., D, V, and Q) to extract their joint exceedance probability for the seven study sites in Fiji, enabling probabilistic flood risk assessment. The vine copula approach, particularly suited to Fiji’s study sites, introduces a novel probabilistic framework for flood risk assessment. The results show moderate differences in the spatial patterns of joint exceedance probability of flood characteristics in different combination scenarios generated by the proposed vine copula approach. In the worst-case scenario, the probability of any flood event occurring where the flood volume, peak and duration are likely to exceed the 95th-quantile value (representing an extreme flood event) is found to be less than 5% for all study sites. The proposed hourly flood index and the vine copula approach can be feasible and cost-effective tools for flood risk monitoring and assessment. The methodologies proposed in this study can be applied to other data-scarce regions where only rainfall data is available, offering crucial information for flood risk monitoring, assessment, and the development of effective mitigation strategies.

Despite being stored at 113 K and atmospheric pressure, LNG cold potential is not exploited to reduce green ships’ energy needs. An innovative system based on three Organic Ranking Cycles integrated into the regasification equipment is proposed to produce additional power and recover cooling energy from condensers. A first-law analysis identified ethylene and ethane as suitable working fluids for the first and the second ORC making available freshwater and ice. Propane, ammonia and propylene could be arbitrarily employed in the third ORC for air-conditioning. An environmental analysis that combines exergy efficiency, ecological indices and hazard aspects for marine environment and ship’s passengers, indicated propylene as safer and more environmentally friendly. The exergy analysis confirms more than 20% of the LNG potential can be recovered from every cycle to produce a net clean power of 76 kW, whereas 270 kW can be saved by recovering condensers' cooling power to satisfy some ship needs. Assuming the sailing mode, a limitation of 162 kg in LNG consumptions was determined, avoiding the emission of 1584 kg of CO2 per day. Marine thermal pollution is reduced by 3.5 times by recovering the working fluids' condensation heat for the LNG pre-heating.

One of the major concerns in structural health management (SHM) is the early detection of a growing crack. Using this, future damage due to crack propagation can be mitigated or eliminated by implementing proper repair and maintenance. Acoustic Emission (AE) is a non-destructive testing (NDT) method with potential applications for locating and monitoring fatigue cracks. The research presented in this paper focuses on SHM using AE. A novel AE signal analysis approach was proposed in order to detect crack initiation and assess small crack lengths. Experimental investigation indicated that initiation of a crack could be identified through the statistical analysis of the resulting features of the AE signals. A probabilistic AE-based model for small fatigue crack sizing was developed and the uncertainties of the model were estimated. In addition, a probabilistic model validation approach was implemented to confirm accurate estimation of the results. The outcome of this research can be used to evaluate the integrity of structures under fatigue loading. The proposed approach can also be applied as an approach to manage health and assess prognosis of structures.

The strong competition in the automotive industry has required manufacturers to implement lean production, both with methods and techniques specific to Industry 4.0. At the same time, universities must provide graduates with specific skills for applying these new production methods and techniques. In this context, a Lean Learning Factory was developed in the Pitesti University Center, which allows students to learn, experiment, and research, in an environment similar to that of enterprises, the new Lean Manufacturing methods and techniques, and Industry 4.0. The research presented in this study had as its objective identifying the minimum number of repetitions necessary to train operators who serve two differently organized workstations, one classic, the other including digital techniques, but on which the same assembly operation is performed. Several indicators were considered in the analysis, such as the number of errors, the number of stops, the effective duration of the work cycle, and the percentage ratio between the standard duration of cyclical activities and the effective duration of the work cycle. The evolution of these indicators was mathematically modelled by regression functions, using the least squares method. The obtained results also highlight the usefulness of applying the DOJO method as a Lean manufacturing-specific learning technique and the efficiency of implementing digital techniques in work organization.

The expansion of renewable energies is progressing strongly. The influence on the power supply networks by the volatility of the infeed must be met with new concepts. In this paper we investigate the possibilities of integrating microgrids as a cooperating unit in the power supply network to support further expansion of RES power plants. In this paper a differentiation of microgrids from similar network structures is established, a classification of proposed groups is made. Then, after the description of simulation of components in a microgrid, with practical advice, an example model is shown, which aids the dimensioning of the components within a microgrid to achieve a specified goal.

When wildlife and motor vehicles collide, the result for the animals is often death (roadkill). A commercial roadkill Virtual Fence (VF) mitigation device (iPTE Traffic Solutions) was used in a field trial to test its effectiveness along a 4.9-km segment of road on Bruny Island, Tasmania. A total of 585 days of monitoring of roadkill by species was conducted, with six sections alternatively switched on or off, according to a variation of a Crossover and Multiple Before-After-Control-Impact (MBACI) experimental designs that divided monitoring into “off-on” then “on-off” blocks of periods with each “on” period followed by a 16 d “wash-out” period. For the six sections over the four periods that exclude wash-outs, the 24 aggregated values of daily counts of roadkill of Tasmanian pademelons (Thylogale billardierii), that gave a total count of 222, were modelled. Other species were killed in insufficient numbers for analysis to be informative. The statistical analysis exploited the MBACI design to estimate the VF effect using a log-odds ratio parameter (LORP) while accounting for local spatio-temporal effects. Both versions of the analysis, either averaging over the three spatial replicates (paired sections) or two temporal replicates (blocks) gave no statistically significant effect of the VF judged as a LORP estimate not sufficiently below zero. Corresponding percentage reduction estimates of 9% and 16% were derived from the LORP estimates and given parameter uncertainty estimates the power to detect as significant a LORP corresponding to a 50% reduction in rate were 0.5 and 0.6, respectively. This study confirms results from a similar field trial carried out in 2018 also in southern Tasmania and adds to the evidence that this VF is likely to give if anything only a minor reduction in roadkill for a commonly killed species for which researchers have the best chance of detecting any practically useful reduction.

Probabilistic inference problems have very broad practical applications. To solve this kind of problems under conditions of certainty, an effective mathematical apparatus has been developed. In real situations, obtaining deterministic estimates of relevant probabilities is often difficult; therefore, problems with handling uncertain estimates of probabilities appear. This paper examines the problem of probabilistic inference with probability trees provided that the initial probabilities are given in the form of intervals of their possible values.

A general framework for inference in dynamical systems is described, based on the language of Bayesian probability theory and making use of the maximum entropy principle. Taking as fundamental the concept of a path, the continuity equation and Cauchy's equation for fluid dynamics arise naturally, while the specific information about the system can be included using the Maximum Caliber (or maximum path entropy) principle.

Performing optimisation and scale-up studies of crystallisation systems requires accurate and computationally efficient mathematical models. The assumption of the ideal mixing conditions in batch reactors typically produce inaccurate results while the computational expense of CFD models is still prohibitively high. Therefore, in this work, a new intermediary approach is proposed that takes into account the non-ideal mixing conditions in the reactor and requires less computational resources than full CFD simulations. Starting with the Danckwerts concept of the intensity of segregation, an analogy between its application to chemical reactions and the kinetics of the crystallisation phenomena (such as nucleation and growth) has been made. As a result, the modified kinetics expressions have been derived which incorporate the effect of non-idealities present in stirred reactors. This way, based on the experimental measurements of the mixing time using the Laser Induced Fluorescence (LIF) technique, computationally more efficient mathematical models can be developed in two ways: (1) the accurate semi-empirical correlations are available for standard mixing configurations with the most often used types of impellers, (2) CFD simulations can be utilised for estimation of the mixing time; in this case it is necessary to simulate only the mixing process. The benefits offered by the LIF experimental technique have been demonstrated and some frequent problems in its application analysed. The mixing time results for configurations with and without baffles for three types of impellers and four different rotational speeds have been presented. The false shorter mixing times in the non-baffled configurations have been observed and this phenomena explained by the existence of two segregated zones in the reactor and confirmed by additional experiments. The precise measurements in these cases have been shown as difficult using the LIF technique, particularly for higher rpms. The experimental data has been compared to the preliminary simulation results obtained from the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics method and the standard k-ε turbulence model with the modest success. The shortcomings of the SPH model have been recognized and the directions for the future work discussed.

Energy consumption modelling is of critical importance for improving energy efficiency in the drive towards sustainable manufacturing. Modern manufacturing processes and machine tools are very complex as they involve interplay of several advanced technologies. Therefore, energy modelling of modern machine tools is a complex multi-disciplinary task. This paper proposes a systematic and practical framework to choose the appropriate modelling approach for a given industrial problem. The framework was validated by applying it to diverse industrial scenarios.

Schistosomiasis, acquired by skin-penetrating cercariae of dioecious digenean schistosomes during freshwater contact, afflicts nearly 260 and 440 million people with active infections and residual morbidity, respectively; about 10 million women at reproductive age contract schistosomiasis during gestation every year. Acute schistosomiasis is characterized by pre-patent pro-inflammatory CD4+ T-helper 1 or CD4+ Th1/T-helper 17 reactivity against immature schistosomulae. Chronic schistosomiasis is dominated by post-patent anti-inflammatory CD4+ T-helper 2 reactivity against ova epitopes; flukes co-exist in immunocompetent definitive hosts as they are capable of evading their defense mechanisms. Preventive measures should be complemented by vaccination, inducing long-term protection against transmission, infection, and disease recurrence, given the latest advancements in schistosomal vaccines. Transmission models incorporating vaccination available in PubMed, Embase and Web of Science up to December 31, 2023 are presented. Besides conceptual model differences, predictions meant to guide decision- and policymaking reveal continued worm harboring facilitating transmission besides residual infections, and increased susceptibility to re-infection and rebound morbidity, both shifted to later life stages following the intervention. Consequently, a vaccination schedule is pivotal considering the optimal age for initial immunization, i.e., pre-schoolchildren or schoolchildren, in a cohort-based or population-based manner while incorporating potential non-adherers promoting ongoing transmission; longevity over magnitude of vaccine protection to antigenic schistosomal moieties is crucial including accounting for existing pre-acquired immunity from natural exposure, in utero priming besides herd immunity, and induced by chemotherapy. Combining as one multi-component approach long-term effects of vaccination with short-term effects of chemotherapy as regular repeated vaccine-linked therapy in contrast to a single-component intervention seems most promising for achieving WHO’s endpoints of transmission elimination and morbidity control.

Since its post-World War II inception, the science of record linkage has grown exponentially and is used across industrial, governmental, and academic agencies. The academic fields that rely on record linkage are diverse, ranging from history to public health to demography. In this paper, we introduce the different types of data linkage and give a historical context to their development. We then introduce the three types of underlying models for probabilistic record linkage: Fellegi-Sunter based methods, machine learning methods, and Bayesian methods. Practical considerations such as data standardization and privacy concerns are then discussed. Finally, recommendations are given for organizations developing or maintaining record linkage programs, with an emphasis on organizations measuring long-term complications of disasters such as 9/11.

Water footprint has been widely used to illustrate the consumption of water in many situations; for instance, in products, processes or regions of interest. In this work, we analyzed – using a sensitivity analysis approach – the effect of some variables in the calculation of the water footprint in the viticulture in Brazilian Serra Gaúcha (the major producing region of Brazilian Wine).The classical Penman-Monteith model for evapotransporation was considered, with uncertainties in some parameters (dead mulch covering fraction in the vineyard, maximum temperatures for some months, altitudes and latitudes of the site). The sensitivity analysis was conducted using the SAFE toolbox under Octave framework. The results indicated that the the portion of the water footprint corresponding to the evapotranspiration is more sensitive to the values of mulch covering fraction and the altitude of the site in comparison with the latitude and the maximum temperatures.

This article introduces a novel approach, termed the Asymmetric Probabilistic Tsetlin (APT) Machine, which incorporates the Stochastic Point Location (SPL) algorithm with the Asymmetric Steps technique into the Tsetlin Machine (TM). APT introduces stochasticity into the state transitions of Tsetlin Automata (TA) by leveraging the SPL algorithm, thereby enhancing pattern recognition capabilities. To enhance random search processes, we introduced a decaying normal distribution into the procedure. Meanwhile, the Asymmetric Steps approach biases state transition probabilities towards specific input patterns, further elevating operational efficiency. The efficacy of the proposed approach is assessed across diverse benchmark datasets for classification tasks. The performance of APT is compared with traditional machine learning algorithms and other Tsetlin Machine models, including the Asymmetric Tsetlin (AT) Machine, characterized by deterministic rules for Asymmetric transitions, and the Classical Tsetlin (CT) Machine, employing deterministic rules for symmetric transitions. Strikingly, the introduced APT methodology demonstrates highly competitive outcomes compared to established machine learning methods. Notably, both APT and AT exhibit state-of-the-art performance, surpassing the Classical Tsetlin Machine, emphasizing the efficacy of asymmetric models for achieving superior outcomes. Remarkably, APT exhibits even better performance than AT, particularly in handling complex datasets.

Reservoirs created by damming rivers significantly modify the environment and problems may arise: the storage of nutrients and organic matter in reservoirs often leads to decreased water quality due to eutrophication. Reservoirs built on lowland rivers are exposed to significant nutrient loads, often leading to eutrophication. In this article, the Sulejów Reservoir, in Central Poland, was the subject of the research, which focused on the use of Sentinel-2 remote sensing data to detect phytoplankton blooms, and on understanding the pattern of wind-driven surface currents using the CCHE2D model (a depth-averaged hydrodynamic model). The calculation of the total phosphorus load has shown that the reservoir mainly acts as nutrient storage. Still, during the low flow and intensive phytoplankton bloom, it can be a source of nutrients. The distribution of phytoplankton bloom on the Sulejów Reservoir was documented using eight Sentinel-2 satellite images from the vegetation season of 2020 and the Normalized Difference Chlorophyll Index (NDCl). Coupling remote sensing data and numerical modelling helps to interpret the hydrodynamic model results and understand nutrients and sediment dynamics within the reservoir. Hydrodynamic modelling combined with remote sensing data can be a valuable tool for selecting appropriate locations for water quality measurements at monitoring stations.

The Collatz conjecture, a longstanding mathematical puzzle, posits that, regardless of the starting integer, iteratively applying a specific formula will eventually lead to the value 1. This paper introduces a novel approach to validate the Collatz conjecture by leveraging the binary representation of generated numbers. Each transition in the sequence is predetermined using the Collatz conjecture formula, yet the path of transitions is revealed to be intricate, involving alternating increases and decreases for each initial value. The study delves into the global flow of the sequence, investigating the behavior of the generated numbers as they progress toward the termination value of 1. The analysis utilizes the concept of probability to shed light on the complex dynamics of the Collatz conjecture. By incorporating probabilistic methods, this research aims to unravel the underlying patterns and tendencies that govern the convergence of the sequence. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the Collatz conjecture, offering insights into the inherent complexities of its trajectories. This work not only validates the conjecture through binary representation but also provides a probabilistic framework to elucidate the global flow of the sequence, enriching our comprehension of this enduring mathematical mystery.

The partial discharge (PD) event in high voltage insulation releases energy, exerts mechanical pressure, and generates elastic waves. Detecting and locating these PD events through short-duration acoustic pulses is well-established, particularly in gas-insulated systems and oil-insulated transformers. However, its full potential remains untapped in solid insulation systems, where the propagation capability of acoustic pulse and the acoustic reflections pose fundamental challenges to the Acoustic Emission (AE) detection technique. This study investigates the influence of reflections and multiple paths on the propagating acoustic pulse in polymeric insulating materials using a finite element method (FEM) in COMSOL. It was observed that the reflections from the boundary influence the propagating pulse's shape, peak magnitude, and arrival time. An analytical MATLAB model further quantifies the impact of multiple propagation paths on the shape, magnitude, and arrival time of the pulse travelling in a cylinder. Additionally, a Perfect Matched Layer (PML) was implemented in the COMSOL model to eliminate reflections from the boundary, and it revealed that the acoustic pulse magnitude decreases with distance following the inverse square law. In essence, the models aid in measuring how reflections contribute to the observed signals, facilitating the precise identification of the source of the PD event in the tested system.

Log collection and storage is a crucial process for enterprises around the globe. Log analysis helps identify potential security breaches and, in some cases, is required by law for compliance. However, enterprises often delegate these responsibilities to third-party Cloud Service Providers (CSPs), where the logs are collected and processed for anomaly detection and stored in a data warehouse for archiving. Prevalent schemes rely on plain (unencrypted) data for anomaly detection. More often, these logs can reveal sensitive information about an organization or the customers of that organization. Hence, it is best to keep it encrypted at all times. This paper presents "SigML++," an extension of work done in "SigML." We utilize Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) with the Cheon-Kim-Kim-Song (CKKS) scheme for supervised log anomaly detection on encrypted data. We use an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based probabilistic polynomial approximations using a Perceptron with linear activation. We probabilistically approximate the Sigmoid activation function (σ(x)) in the encrypted domain for the intervals [−10,10] and [−50,50]. Experiments show better approximations for Logistic Regression (LR) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) for low-order polynomials.

In this study, the probabilistic exergoeconomic analysis was performed for four industrial gas turbine (GT) units comprising of two (GT16 and GT19) units of 100MW GE engine and two (GT8 and GT12) units of 25MW Hitachi engine at Transcorp Power Limited, Ughelli. These four industrial GT engine units were modelled and simulated using natural gas as fuel. The design point (DP) simulation results of the modelled GT engines were validated with the available DP thermodynamic data from original equipment manufacturer (OEM). This was done before the off-design point (ODP) simulation was carried out which represents the plant operations. The results obtained from exergy analysis at full load operation show that the turbine has the highest exergy efficiency followed by compressor and combustion having the least. For turbines these were 96.13% for GT8 unit, 98.02% for GT12 unit, 96.26% for GT16 unit, and 96.30% for GT19 unit. Moreover, the combustion chamber has the highest exergy destruction efficiency of 55.16% GT8 unit, 56.58% GT12 unit, 43.90% GT16 unit, and 43.30% GT19 unit respectively. The exergy analysis results obtained from the four units show that the combustion chamber (CC) is the most significant exergy destruction with lowest exergy efficiency and highest exergy destruction efficiency of plant components. The exergoeconomic analysis results from four units showed combustion chamber energy destruction cost of 531.08 $/h GT8 unit, 584.53 $/h GT12 unit, 2351.81$/h GT16, and 2315.93$/h GT19 unit. The probabilistic results analysis based on the input parameters distributions evaluated and discussed.

We are witnessing a progressive divestment of some institutions with strong traditions and skills in physical modelling and their consequent impoverishment, to the detriment of numerical modelling. For many reasons, the economic imperatives and the exponential growth of computational means and numerical methods should certainly not be excluded. In this work, we aimed to highlight the new requirements of the recent sophisticated developments in physical modelling, precisely due to the new needs imposed on them by mathematical and numerical modelling and the growing risks in civil construction works. In this context, reflections are reported, justified by scientific and real-world examples, on the need for maintenance and reinforcement of investments in physical modelling, both to support the scientific community and to design buildings of significant economic, social and environmental impact.

This paper seeks to model the crack propagation in of AAs (aluminum-alloys) 2524-T3 and 7050-T7452 subjected to fatigue loading at low temperature. Fatigue crack growth tests were performed on AAs 2524-T3 and 7050-T7452 subjected to constant-amplitude and actual random-spectra loading histories at room temperature of about 25 °C and at cryogenic temperature of -70 °C, respectively, to determine their crack growth properties and residual lives. The interaction mechanisms between cryogenic temperature and the fatigue load were deduced on the basis of the results of fractographic analysis. Temperature-dependent residual lives under actual random-spectrum load history were modeled based on a modified accumulation damage rule by accounting for the load interaction. Good correlation was achieved between the predictions and actual experiments, demonstrating the practical and effective use of the proposed method.

Reassessment of the fatigue life for wind turbines structural components is typically performed using deterministic methods with the same partial safety factors as used for the original design. However, in relation to life extension, the conditions are generally different from the assumptions used for calibration of partial safety factors; and using a deterministic assessment method with these partial safety factors might not lead to optimal decisions. In this paper, the deterministic assessment method is compared to probabilistic and risk-based approaches, and the economic feasibility is assessed for a case wind farm. Using the models also used for calibration of partial safety factors in IEC61400-1 ed. 4 it is found that the probabilistic assessment generally leads to longer additional fatigue life than the deterministic assessment method. The longer duration of the extended life can make life extension feasible in more situations. The risk-based model is applied to include the risk of failure directly in the economic feasibility assessment and it is found that the reliability can be much lower than the target for new turbines, without compromising the economic feasibility.

This study has developed a Matlab application for simulating statistical models project (SMp) probabilistic distributions that are similar to binomial and Poisson, which were created by mathematical procedures. The simulated distributions are graphically compared with these popular distributions. The application allows to obtain many probabilistic distributions, and shows the trend (τ ) for n trials with success probability p, i.e. the maximum probability as τ=np. While the Poisson distribution PD(x;µ) is a unique probabilistic distribution, where PD=0 in x=+∞, the application simulates many SMp(x;µ,Xmax) distributions, where µ is the Poisson parameter and value of x with generally the maximum probability, and Xmax is the upper limit of x with SMp(x;µ,Xmax) ≥ 0 and limit of the stochastic region of a random discrete variable. It is shown that by simulation via, one can get many and better probabilistic distributions than by mathematical one.

This study has developed a Matlab application for simulating statistical models project (SMp) probabilistic distributions that are similar to binomial and Poisson, which were created by mathematical procedures. The simulated distributions are graphically compared with these legendary distributions. The application allows to obtain many probabilistic distributions, and shows the trend (τ ) for n trials with success probability p, i.e. the maximum probability as τ=np. While the Poisson distribution PD(x;µ) is a unique probabilistic distribution, where PD=0 in x=+∞, the application simulates many SMp(x;µ,Xmax) distributions, where µ is the Poisson parameter and value of x with generally the maximum probability, and Xmax is upper limit of x with SMp(x;µ,Xmax) ≥ 0 and limit of the stochastic region of the random discrete variable X. It is shown that by simulation via, one can get many and better probabilistic distributions than by mathematical one.

By combining stochastic variational inference with message passing algorithms we show how to solve the highly complex problem of navigation and avoidance in distributed multi-robot systems in a computationally tractable manner, allowing online implementation. Subsequently, the proposed variational method lends itself to more flexible solutions than prior methodologies. Furthermore, the derived method is verified both through simulations with multiple mobile robots and a real world experiment with two mobile robots. In both cases the robots shares the operating space and needs to cross each other’s paths multiple times without colliding.

Lightning is responsible for most annually burned area by wildfires in the extratropical region of the Northern Hemisphere. Hence, predicting the occurrence of wildfires requires reliable forecasting of the chance of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes during storms. Here, we describe the development and verification of a probabilistic lightning-strike algorithm designed to run on a uniform 20-km grid over the Continental USA and Alaska. The algorithm consists of a large set of logistic equations parameterized via logistic regression using long-term data records of observed lightning strikes and meteorological reanalysis fields from NOAA. Principal Component Analysis was employed to extract 13 Principal Components (strong predictors) from a list of 611 potential predictors. Our statistical analysis revealed that the occurrence of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes primarily depends on three factors: horizontal temperature distribution by pressure levels, amount of low-level atmospheric moisture, and wind vectors. These physical variables impact the vertical separation of electric charges in the lower troposphere during storms causing the voltage potential between ground and the cloud deck to increase to a level that triggers electrical discharges. Results from a forecast verification using independent data showed excellent model skill, thus making this algorithm suitable for inclusion into software systems forecasting the chance of wildfire ignitions.

Probabilistic latent semantic analysis is a statistical technique developed for information retrieval and spanned many fields. It yields intuitive and solid results. However, the rigidity of the assumptions and the iterative nature derived from the Expectation-maximization algorithm generate several problems, dividing detractors and enthusiasts. In this manuscript, we first describe the Probabilistic latent semantic analysis. After, we discuss reformulations that attempt to solve these problems. We pay special attention to the works relating Probabilistic latent semantic analysis and the Singular value decomposition Theorem. Also, Probabilistic latent semantic analysis can be the basis for other techniques, such as kernelization or probabilistic transfer learning, and those that extend the descriptive character of the Principal component analysis to an inferential tool and open a window of opportunities.

Calculus, as a starting point to everyone's study of mathematics, was developed along with classical mechanics. Though not rigorously formulated, the intuition for differential form and infinitesimal motion makes calculus not hard to understand. And hence it does not require great effort to grasp the principles of classical mechanics. However, the situation becomes quite different when it comes to the quantum world. Given a particle system, what of interest is always the physical quantity of this system, such as energy, position, momentum, entropy, etc. But it is no longer straightforward.

This paper presents a scenario evolution model for maritime accidents using Bayesian networks (BN) to predict the most likely causes of specific types of maritime incidents. The BN nodes encompass accident type, life loss contingency, accident severity, the quarter and time period of the accident, and the type and gross tonnage of the ships involved. We analyzed 5,660 global maritime accidents from 2005 to 2020. Using Netica software, we constructed a Tree Augmented Network (TAN) model, accounting for interdependencies among risk influencing factors. We validated the results through sensitivity analysis and historical accident records. Forward causal inference and reverse diagnostic inference were then performed on each node variable to investigate the accident development trend and evolution process under predetermined conditions. The findings indicate that the model can effectively predict the likelihood of various accident scenarios under specific conditions, as well as the extrapolation of accident consequences. Forward causal reasoning reveals that general cargo ships with a gross tonnage of 1-18,500 t are most likely to experience collision, grounding, and stranding accidents in the first quarter. Reverse diagnostic reasoning indicates that during early morning hours, container ships, general cargo ships, and chemical ships with a tonnage of 1-18,500 t are less likely to involve life loss in the event of collision accidents.

The age of information (AoI) metric was proposed to measure the freshness of messages obtained at the terminal node of a status updating system. In this paper, the AoI of discrete time status updating system with probabilistic packet preemption is investigated by analyzing the steady state of a three-dimensional discrete stochastic process. Assuming the queue used in system is Ber/Geo/1/2*/η, which represents that the system size is 2 and the packet in buffer can be preempted by fresher packet with probability η. Instead of considering system’s AoI separately, we use a three-dimensional state vector (n,m,l) to simultaneously track the real time changes of the AoI, the age of packet in server, and the age of packet waiting in buffer. We give the explicit expression of system’s average AoI, and show that the average AoI of system without packet preemption is obtained by letting η=0. When η is set to 1, the mean of AoI of system having Ber/Geo/1/2* queue is obtained as well. Combining the results we have obtained and comparing them with corresponding average continuous AoIs, we propose a possible relationship between average discrete AoI with Ber/Geo/1/c queue and the average continuous AoI with M/M/1/c queue. For each of two extreme cases where η=0 and η=1, we also determine the stationary distribution of AoI using the probability generation function (PGF) method. The relations between average AoI and the packet preemption probability η, as well as AoI’s distribution curves in two extreme cases are illustrated by numerical simulations. Notice that the probabilistic packet preemption may occur, for example, in an energy harvest (EH) node of wireless sensor network, where the packet in buffer can be replaced only when the node collects enough energy. In particular, to exhibit the usefulness of our idea and methods and highlight the merits of considering discrete time systems, in this paper we give much more explanations showing that how the results about continuous AoI is derived by analyzing the corresponding discrete time system, and how the discrete age analysis is generalized to the system with multiple sources. In terms of packet service process, we also propose our idea to analyze system’s AoI when the service time distribution is relaxed to be arbitrary.

Indoor Positioning Systems (IPSs) are designed to provide solutions for location-based services. Wireless local area network (WLAN)-based positioning systems are the most widespread around the globe and are commonly found to have a ready-to-use infrastructure composed mostly of access points (APs). They provide useful information on signal strength to be processed by adequate location algorithms, which are not always capable of achieving the desired localization error only by themselves. In this sense, this paper proposes a new method to improve the accuracy of IPSs by optimizing some of their most relevant infrastructure components. Included are the arrangement of APs over the environment, the number of reference points (RPs), and the number of samples per location estimation test. A simulation environment is also proposed, in which the impact of key influencing factors on system accuracy is analyzed. Finally, a case study is simulated to validate an optimal combination of design parameters and its compliance with the requirements of localization error and the limited number of access points. Our simulation results clearly show that the desired localization accuracy, which is set as a goal, can be achieved while maintaining the factors already mentioned at minimal levels, which decreases both system deployment costs and computational effort.

Microgrids can be islanded to improve the reliability of the electrical energy supply during contingencies such as faults. It is still unclear what stability phenomena can occur in microgrids without inertia during and immediately after the fault-initiated islanding transient, and how the stability should be evaluated. To allow robust planning and operation, a stability analysis methodology should be able to take into account the inherent uncertainty of load and renewable energy sources. Therefore, this paper proposes a probabilistic stability analysis methodology for fault-initiated islanding of microgrids based on a thorough analysis of the root causes of instability during islanding transients. To perform stability analysis within reasonable time and allow control actions during operation, dynamical microgrid models in the dq reference frame are described and validated by comparing time-domain simulations results to previously validated component-based models. The stability analysis methodology is demonstrated in a case study of a generic microgrid. The instability phenomena and the dq microgrid models are successfully validated, and the results indicate that the stability analysis methodology can assist the microgrid operator to improve fault-initiated islanding capability in order to improve reliability of supply.

Runtime verification (RV) is a lightweight approach to detecting temporal errors of system at runtime. It confines the verification on observed trajectory which avoids state explosion problem.To predict the future violation, some work proposed the predictive RV which uses the information from models or static analysis. But for software whose models and codes cannot be obtained, or systems running under uncertain environment, these predictive methods cannot take effect. Meanwhile, RV in general takes multi-valued logic as the specification languages, for example the " true, false and inconclusive" in three-valued semantics. They cannot give accurate quantitative description of correctness when "inconclusive" is encountered. We in this paper present a RV method which learns probabilistic model of system and environment from history traces and then generates probabilistic runtime monitor to quantitatively predict the satisfaction of temporal property at each runtime state. In this approach, Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is firstly learned and then transformed to Discrete Time Markov Chain (DTMC). To construct incremental monitor, the monitored LTL property is translated into Deterministic Rabin Automaton (DRA). The final probabilistic monitor is obtained by generating the product of DTMC and DRA, and computing the probabilities for each state. With such method, one can give early warning once the probability of correctness is lower than pre-defined threshold, and have the chance to do adjustment in advance. The method has been implemented and experimented on real UAS (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) simulation platform.

This paper is motivated by spatio-temporal pattern in the occurrence of Leishmaniasis in Afghanistan and the relatively high number of zero counts. We hold the view that correlations that arise from spatial and temporal sources are inherently distinct. Our method decouples these two sources of correlations, there are at least two advantages in taking this approach. First, it circumvents the need to inverting a large correlation matrix, which is a commonly encountered problem in spatio-temporal analyses. Second, it simplifies the modelling of complex relationships such as anisotropy, which would have been extremely difficult or impossible if spatio-temporal correlations were simultaneously considered. We identify three challenges in the modelling of a spatio-temporal process: (1) accommodation of covariances that arise from spatial and temporal sources; (2) choosing the correct covariance structure and (3) extending to situations where a covariance is not the natural measure of association. Moreover, because the data covers a period that overlaps with the US invasion of Afghanistan, the high number of zero counts may be the result of no disease incidence or lapse of data collection. To resolve this issue, a model truncated at zero built on a foundation of the generalized estimating equations was proposed.

The second article in the series presents the application of the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method to modelling of batch crystallisation in stirred tanks. A methodology to integrate the population balance equations (PBE) in parallel and independently from the Navier-Stokes equations is demonstrated. The benefits of the proposed methodology in terms of computational requirements, accuracy and availability of the crystal size distribution are discussed. The specific formulation of the SPH equations where the resulting system of ordinary differential equations is solved using the weighted contributions rather than numerically by solving a linear system of equations allows for massive parallelisation and a very loose coupling of the population balance and the fluid dynamics. It has been demonstrated, that the population balance equations can be solved on a Shared Memory Architecture (SMA) system using the OpenMP interface while the fluid dynamics equations being computed independently on a General Purpose Graphics Processing Unit (GPGPU) using the NVidia CUDA technology. This way, a significant portion of the computational overhead due to the large number of additional transport equations resulting from the discretisation of the population balance was removed: the SPH simulation coupled with 200 population balance equations was only 40% slower compared to SPH-only simulation. Two methods for the solution of population balance equations that preserve full crystal size distribution were implemented: discretised population balance (DPB) and method of characteristics (MOCH). The DPB equations are solved using the high-resolution finite-volume method with flux limiter and the effect of a large number of different flux limiters have been investigated. Both methods were validated using the case studies from the literature where an analytical solution can be derived. The developed models were applied to a numerical solution of coupled computational fluid dynamics and population balance equations to model a batch crystallization process. The effect of the hydrodynamics on the local temperature/supersaturation and the resulting crystal size distribution was captured and compared to the ideal mixing case. The simulation results from the DPB and MOCH methods were compared in terms of computational requirements and accuracy and MOCH selected as computationally more efficient and accurate.

We propose a probabilistic graphical model for discriminative substrate characterization, to support geological and biological habitat mapping in aquatic environments. The model, called a fully connected conditional random field (CRF), is demonstrated using multispectral and monospectral acoustic backscatter from heterogeneous seafloors in Patricia Bay, British Columbia, and Bedford Basin, Nova Scotia. Unlike previously proposed discriminative machine learning algorithms, the CRF model considers both the relative backscatter magnitudes of different substrates and their relative proximities. The model therefore combines the statistical flexibility of a machine learning algorithm with an inherently spatial treatment of the substrate. The CRF model predicts substrates such that nearby locations with similar backscattering characteristics are likely to be in the same substrate class. The degree of proximity and allowable backscatter similarity are controlled by parameters that are learned from the data. CRF model results were evaluated against a popular generative model known as a Gaussian Mixture model that doesn't include spatial dependencies, only covariance between substrate backscattering response over different frequencies. Both models are used in conjunction with sparse bed observations/samples in a supervised classification. A detailed accuracy assessment, including a leave-one-out cross-validation analysis, was performed using both models. Using multispectral backscatter, the GMM model trained on 50% of the bed observations resulted in a 75% and 89% average accuracies in Patricia Bay and Bedford Basin, respectively. The same metrics for the CRF model were 78% and 95%. Further, the CRF model resulted in a 91% mean cross-validation accuracy across four substrate classes at Patricia Bay, and a 99.5% mean accuracy across three substrate classes at Bedford Basin, which suggest that the CRF model generalizes extremely well to new data. This analysis also showed that the CRF model was much less sensitive to the specific number and locations of bed observations than the generative model, owing to its ability to incorporate spatial autocorrelation in substrates. The CRF approach therefore may prove to be a powerful `spatially aware' alternative to other discriminative classifiers.

An approach to the assessment of probabilistic inference is described which quantifies the performance on the probability scale. From both information and Bayesian theory, the central tendency of an inference is proven to be the geometric mean of the probabilities reported for the actual outcome and is referred to as the “Accuracy.” Upper and lower error bars on the accuracy are provided by the arithmetic mean and the -2/3 mean. The arithmetic is called the “Decisiveness” due to its similarity with the cost of a decision and the -2/3 mean is called the “Robustness”, due to its sensitivity to outlier errors. Visualization of inference performance is facilitated by plotting the reported model probabilities versus the histogram calculated source probabilities. The visualization of the calibration between model and source is summarized on both axes by the arithmetic, geometric, and -2/3 means. From information theory, the performance of the inference is related to the cross-entropy between the model and source distribution. Just as cross-entropy is the sum of the entropy and the divergence; the accuracy of a model can be decomposed into a component due to the source uncertainty and the divergence between the source and model. Translated to the probability domain these quantities are plotted as the average model probability versus the average source probability. The divergence probability is the average model probability divided by the average source probability. When an inference is over/under-confident, the arithmetic mean of the model increases/decreases, while the -2/3 mean decreases/increases, respectively.

We introduce NodeFlow, a flexible framework for probabilistic regression on tabular data that combines Neural Oblivious Decision Ensemble (NODE) and Conditional Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNF). It offers improved modeling capabilities for arbitrary probabilistic distributions, addressing the limitations of traditional parametric approaches. In NodeFlow, the NODE captures complex relationships in tabular data through a tree-like structure, while the conditional CNF utilizes the NODE’s output space as a conditioning factor. The training process of NodeFlow employs standard gradient-based learning, facilitating end-to-end optimization of the NODEs and CNF-based density estimation. This approach ensures outstanding performance, ease of implementation, and scalability, making NodeFlow an appealing choice for practitioners and researchers. Comprehensive assessments on benchmark datasets underscore NodeFlow’s efficacy, revealing its achievement of state-of-the-art outcomes in multivariate probabilistic regression setup and its strong performance in univariate regression tasks. Furthermore, ablation studies are conducted to justify the design choices of NodeFlow. In conclusion, NodeFlow’s end-to-end training process and strong performance make it a compelling solution for practitioners and researchers. Additionally, it opens new avenues for research and application in the field of probabilistic regression on tabular data.

Problem solving is one of the most important components of the human cognition that affects for ages the progress of the human society. Mathematical modelling is a special type of problem solving concerning problems related to science or everyday life situations. The present study is a review of the author’s earlier works on problem solving and mathematical modelling from the scope of Education. Its real goal is that it presents in a systematic way and in a few pages only the results of many years research on the subject. This helps the reader to get a comprehensive idea about a very important topic belonging to the core of Mathematics Education, which is very useful to those wanting to study deeper the subject and get directions for further research in the area.

Nepal is one of the most seismically active regions in the world, as highlighted by the recent devastating 2015, Mw7.8 Gorkha earthquake and a robust assessment of seismic hazard is paramount for the design of earthquake-resistant structures. In this study we present a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model for Nepal. We considered data and findings from recent scientific publications, which allowed us to develop a unified homogenized seismicity catalogue, propose alternative Seismic Source Characterization (SSC) models including up-to-date parameters of major thrust faults like Main Frontal Thrust – MFT and Main Boundary Thrust – MBT, while also considering existing SSC models and various hazard modelling strategies within a logic tree framework. The sensitivity analyses show the hazard levels are generally higher for SSC models integrating the major thrust faults, followed by homogenous volume sources and smoothed seismicity approach. The hazard maps covering entire Nepal is presented as well as the Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) for 5 selected locations (Kathmandu, Pokhara, Biratnagar, Nepalganj and Dipayal) at return periods of 475- and 2,475-years considering Vs,30=760 m/s. The results obtained are generally consistent with most recent studies. However, a notable variability in hazard levels and several discrepancies with respect to the Nepal Building Code NBC105: 2020 [1] and Global Hazard Model, GEM [2] are noted and possible causes are discussed.

In the present work, a predictive modelling and optimization with the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system(ANFIS) modelling of mechanical properties of laser-coated NB/SiC/Ni welds was studied based on Taguchi design by laser cladding. An ANFIS model based on a Sugeno type fuzzy inference system was developed for predicting the hardness properties of SiC/BN/Ni welds by laser cladding with experimental data required for network training and prediction. Based on analysis of variance, three important factors were taken as inputs for the fuzzy logic inferences, while the hardness properties was taken as the output of the ANFIS. The microstructure of welds were analysed using scanning electron microscopy with an energy dispersive X-Ray spectrometer. Highly developed leaf-like dendrites and eutectic crystals were found in some areas of the melting zone for the BN/SiC/Ni weld, which was significantly hardened. The ANFIS model based on Taguchi's design provides a better pattern of response because the predicted and experimental values were highly similar. As a result, a satisfactory result was achieved between the predicted and experimental values of hardness in laser-coated NB/SiC/Ni welds, whereby the success and validity of the method was verified.

Photovoltaic power generation has high variability and uncertainty because it is affected by uncertain factors such as weather conditions. Therefore, probabilistic forecasting is useful for optimal operation and risk hedging in power systems with large amounts of photovoltaic power generation. However, deterministic forecasting is the mainstay of photovoltaic generation forecasting; there are few studies on probabilistic forecasting and feature selection from weather or time-oriented features in such forecasting. In this study, prediction intervals were generated by the lower upper bound estimation using neural networks with two outputs to make probabilistic predictions. The objective was to improve prediction interval coverage probability (PICP), mean prediction interval width (MPIW), and loss, which is the integration of these two metrics, by removing unnecessary features through feature selection. When features with high gain were selected by random forests (RF), in the forecast of 14.7-kW PV systems, loss improved by 1.57 kW, PICP by 0.057, and MPIW by 0.12 kW on average over two weeks compared to the case where all features were used without feature selection. Therefore, the low gain features from RF act as noise in LUBE and reduce the prediction accuracy.

Traumatic Brain Injury represents a significant public health concern due to its role in traumatic death and disability, often caused by head impacts or rapid accelerations. Despite advancements in Finite Element Head Models, existing models primarily represent adult males, neglecting anatomical and physiological differences between genders and age groups. Additionally, the mechanistic roles of specific intracranial tissues, such as the dura mater, have conventionally been overlooked. To better understand the mechanical behavior of the brain and its injured regions in the context of TBI, including the dura mater, this study proposes the development of a Female Finite Element Head Model. This model, representative of a middle-aged female subject, was developed using medical image-derived geometry and finite element modeling techniques. The validation results demonstrate a similarity between the numerical displacement curves and those obtained experimentally. In the model with dura mater, the numerical results show analogous behavior to the experimental results, despite minimal variations in the amplitude of the curves. These advancements highlight the significance of including the dura mater in biomechanical brain modeling. Incorporating the dura mater in Finite Element Head Models produces more realistic results than models without it. This emphasizes the importance of enhancing biomechanical models to better represent anatomical complexity.

This work (in two parts) will review the recently developed predictive modeling methodology called “4th-BERRU-PM” and its applicability to energy systems as exemplified by an illustrative application to the Polyethylene-Reflected Plutonium (acronym: PERP) OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark. The acronym 4th-BERRU-PM designates the “Fourth-Order Best-Estimate Results with Reduced Uncertainties Predictive Modeling” methodology, which yields best-estimate results with reduced uncertainties for the first fourth-order moments (mean values, covariance, skewness, and kurtosis) of the optimally predicted posterior distribution of model results and calibrated model parameters. The 4th-BERRU-PM uses the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) principle to incorporate fourth-order experimental and computational information, including fourth (and higher) order sensitivities of computed model responses to model parameters, thus incorporating, as particular cases, the results previously predicted by the second-order predictive modeling methodology 2nd-BERRU-PM, and vastly generalizing the results produced by extant data assimilation and data adjustment procedures. The 4th-BERRU-PM methodology encompasses the scopes of high-order sensitivity analysis (SA), uncertainty quantification (UQ), data assimilation (DA) and model calibration (MC). The application of the 4th-BERRU-PM methodology to energy systems is illustrated by means of the above-mentioned OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark, which is modeled using the neutron transport Boltzmann equation involving 21976 imprecisely known parameters, the solution of which is representative of “large-scale computations.” The model result (“response”) of interest is the leakage of neutrons through the outer surface of this spherical benchmark, which can be computed numerically and measured experimentally. Part 1 of this work illustrates the impact of high-order sensitivities, in conjunction with parameter standard deviations of various magnitudes, on the determination of the expected value and variance of the computed response in terms of the first four moments of the distribution of the uncertain model parameters. Part 2 of this work will illustrate the capabilities of the 4th-BERRU-PM methodology for combining computational and experimental information, up to and including forth-order sensitivities and distributional moments, for producing best-estimate values for the predicted responses and model parameters while reducing their accompanying uncertainties.

This paper focus on the modeling and time-domain analyzing method of piecewise-smooth fractional-order circuit systems. Firstly, an analytical framework is constructed based on a generalized piecewise-smooth two-port impedance network model, which takes the topological characteristics of Dickson type switched-capacitor converters (SCCs) as examples, and considers the fractional-order characteristics of class-2 X7R ceramic capacitors, which are widely used in SCCs. Secondly, the time-domain analyzing method for such a piecewise-smooth fractional-order circuit system is developed, numerical solutions are obtained, and the influence of the fractional-order capacitor on the power conversion efficiency of the system are revealed. Finally, in order to validate the analysis, both numerical simulation and experiments are provided in the work, the results of which confirm that, the proposed fractional-order analytical framework can capture the power loss mechanism of piecewise-smooth fractional-order circuit systems more effectively than the traditional integer-order based approach, thus benefiting the design of circuit systems.

The incorporation of renewable energy systems in the world energy system has been steadily increasing during the last years. In terms of the building sector, the usual consumers are becoming increasingly prosumers, and the trend is that communities of energy, whose households share produced electricity, will increase in number in the future. Another observed tendency is that the aggregator (the entity that manages the community) trades the net community energy in public energy markets. To accomplish economically good transactions, accurate and reliable forecasts of the day-ahead net energy community must be available. These can be obtained using an ensemble of multi-step shallow artificial neural networks, with prediction intervals obtained by the covariance algorithm. Using real data obtained by a small energy community of four houses located in the South region of Portugal, one can verify that the deterministic and probabilistic performance of the proposed approach is at least similar, typically better than using complex, deep models.

Accurate and reliable project cost estimates are fundamental to achieve successful municipal capital improvement (CIP) programs. Engineering cost estimates typically represent critical information for key decision makers to authorize and efficiently allocate the necessary funds for construction, budgeting, to generate a request for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, etc. for these reasons, cost estimators are using different estimating methods and approaches that allow for required levels of accuracy. As the project’s scope becomes more detailed and the potential risks are identified and/or the project design stage progresses these cost estimates are revised and updated. In this paper, the most common project cost estimation methods and approaches were collected and categorized into two main groups of (1) probabilistic and (2) deterministic methods. Under these groups overall ten different methods were identified and discussed addressing their requirements, advantages, and shortcomings, including the potential risk that can positively or negatively affect the project’s cost outcome. This paper will be a good resource for professionals who are in budget development and/or are seeking to a better understanding of different methods in determining an appropriate base cost margin and produce a meaningful and reliable project cost estimate.

Among the many Lysosomal Storage Disorders (LSDs) that would benefit from the establish-ment of novel cell models, either patient-derived or genetically engineered, is Mucopolysaccha-ridosis type II (MPS II). In fact, even though a specific therapeutic approach does exist for this disorder (Enzyme Replacement Therapy, ERT, with recombinant human IDS) and haematopoiet-ic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) may also hold promise whenever the disorder is diagnosed soon enough, both approaches have their own drawbacks. Here we present our results on the establishment and characterization of two MPS II pa-tient-derived stem cell line(s) from deciduous baby teeth. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time a stem cell population is isolated from LSD patient samples obtained from the oral cavity. Taking into account our results on the molecular and biochemical characterization of those cells and our first insights on their subcellular MPS phenotype, we consider these cells will be a valuable tool for both pathophysiological assessments and drugs screenings. Ultimately, we believe patient-derived dental pulp stem cells (DPSC) may represent a feasible alternative to induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSC) in many labs with standard cell culture con-ditions and limited (human and economic) resources.

In this study we discuss critical issues in modelling the structure and function of lymph nodes (LNs), with emphasis on how LN physiology is related to its multi-scale structural organization. In addition to macroscopic domains such as B-cell follicles and the T cell zone, there are vascular networks which play a key role in the delivery of information to the inner parts of the LN, i.e., the conduit and blood microvascular networks. We propose object-oriented computational algorithms to model the 3D geometry of the fibroblastic reticular cell (FRC) network and the microvasculature. Assuming that a conduit cylinder is densely packed with collagen fibers, the computational flow study predicted that the diffusion should be a dominating process in mass transport than convective flow. The geometry models are used to analyze the lymph flow properties through the conduit network in unperturbed- and damaged states of the LN. The analysis predicts that elimination of up to 60–90 % of edges is required to stop the lymph flux. This result suggests a high degree of functional robustness of the network.

The BP neural network and PSO algorithm are applied into analyzing the reliability of long-span Concrete Filled Steel Tubular (CFST) arch bridges. Firstly, using BP neural network to fit the structural performance function. And then the PSO method was used to calculate the reliability index. A long-span Concrete Filled Steel Tubular arch bridges reliability indices were calculated whether considering the geometric nonlinearity or not. The calculation and analysis results showed that the BP neural network and PSO algorithm compensated the deficiency of the traditional reliability analysis methods, improved the calculation accuracy, provided a new thought and means for the research on the reliability of long-span bridge structure, and well applied to the reliability analysis of long-span Concrete Filled Steel Tubular arch bridges. Additionally, the reliability analysis of long-span Concrete Filled Steel Tubular arch bridges on service limit state must consider the geometric nonlinearity effect, or the results will tend to be unsafe.

Energy storage systems (ESSs) are the key elements to improve the operation of power systems. On the other hand, these elements challenge the power system planners. The difficulties arise as a result of the ESSs' economic and technological features. The cycle life of ESSs is a critical aspect that influences the choices made during expansion planning processes. In this manuscript, we have focused on a new model for the expansion planning of ESSs considering the impacts of technical properties, such as the cycle life and depth of discharge. For this purpose, the proposed model consists of the hourly operation planning of ESSs in the sample days of year. A new indicator is proposed to determine the daily charging/discharging cycles of ESSs. Numerical results show the ability of the proposed model to determine the optimal technology and capacity of ESSs.

Blockchain technology has been gaining great interest from a variety of sectors including healthcare, supply chain, and cryptocurrencies. However, Blockchain suffers from its limited ability to scale (i.e. low throughput and high latency). Several solutions have been proposed to tackle this. In particular, sharding proved that it is one of the most promising solutions to Blockchain’s scalability issue. Sharding can be divided into two major categories: (1) Sharding-based Proof-of-Work (PoW) Blockchain protocols, and (2) Sharding-based Proof-of-Stake (PoS) Blockchain protocols. The two categories achieve good performances (i.e. good throughput with a reasonable latency), but raise security issues. This article focuses on the second category. In this paper, we start by introducing the key components of sharding-based PoS Blockchain protocols. Then, we briefly introduce two consensus mechanisms, namely PoS and practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance (pBFT), and discuss their use and limitations in the context of sharding-based Blockchain protocols. Next, we provide a probabilistic model to analyze the security of these protocols. More specifically, we compute the probability of committing a faulty block and measure the security by computing the number of years to fail. Finally, we evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model via numerical analysis.

This paper presents a limited scope dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (D-PRA) on the survivability of commercial of the shelf (COTS) drones tasked with surveilling areas with varying radiation levels after a nuclear accident. The D-PRA is based on a discrete-dynamic event tree (D-DET) approach, which couples with the OpenEPL error propagation framework to model sequences leading to Loss of Mission (LOM) scenarios due to component failures in the drone’s navigation system. Radiation effects are simulated by calculating the total ionizing dose (TID) against the permissible limit per component, and errors are propagated within the electronic hardware and software blocks to quantify navigation system availability per radiation zone. The proposed methods are integrated into the traditional event tree/fault tree approach and the most vulnerable components are radiation-hardened (RAD-HARD) to the extent specified by a predefined mission success criterion. The results demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach in performing trade studies for incorporating COTS components into RAD-HARD drone designs.

This study shows the application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) to probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation and ramps in Japan. SOMs are applied to atmospheric variables obtained from atmospheric reanalysis over the region, thus deriving classified weather patterns (WPs). Probabilistic relationships are established between the synoptic-scale atmospheric variables over East Japan and the generation of regionally integrated wind power in East Japan. Medium-range probabilistic wind power predictions are derived by SOM, as analog ensembles based on the WPs of the multi-center ensemble forecasts. As this analog approach handles stochastic uncertainties effectively, probabilistic wind power forecasts are rapidly generated from a very large number of forecast ensembles. The use of a multi-model ensemble provides better results than a one-forecast model. The hybrid ensemble forecasts further improve the probabilistic predictability skill of wind power generation, as compared with non-hybrid methods. It is expected that long-term wind forecasts will provide better guidance to transmission grid operators. The advantage of this method is that it can include an interpretative analysis of meteorological factors for variations in renewable energy.

Commercial development of tidal stream energy is hampered by technical and financial challenges, and impeded by uncertainty about potential environmental effects that drive environmental risk assessments and permitting (consenting) processes. The effect of greatest concern for operational tidal stream energy devices is the potential for marine animals to collide with turbine blades, resulting in injury or death. Due to the turbulent and often turbid waters that frequently characterize tidal turbine sites, there is an absence of empirical evidence about collisions with marine animals. This paucity of observations often leads to risk-averse permitting decisions that further restrict the deployment of tidal energy devices that are needed to collect this evidence. This paper relies on the framework of stressors and receptors that is used widely in marine energy studies and outlines a stepwise probabilistic methodology that applies existing knowledge to further elucidate the risk to marine animals from operational tidal turbines. A case study using striped bass from the Bay of Fundy, Canada, accompanies the methodology, to partially demonstrate its application.

Multicriteria decision aid requires a database as a decision matrix, in which two or more alternatives are evaluated according to two or more variables selected as decision criteria. Several problems of this nature use measures by Likert scales. Depending on the method, parameters from these data (e.g. means, modes or medians) are required for calculations. This parameterization of data in ordinal scales has fueled controversy for decades between authors who favor mathematical/statistical rigor and argue against the procedure, stating that ordinal scales should not be parameterized, and scientists from other areas who have shown gains from the process that compensate for this relaxation. The aim of this article is to demonstrate the advantages of the Composition of Probabilistic Preferences (CPP) method in multicriteria problems with data from Likert scales. The CPP is capable of allaying the protests raised and obtaining more accurate results than descriptive statistics or parametric models can bring. The proposed algorithm in R-code involves the use of CPP with empirical distributions and fitting histograms of data measured by Likert scales. Two case studies with simulated datasets having peculiar characteristics and a real case illustrate the advantages of the CPP.

To keep its business reliable, Google is concerned to ensure quality of apps on the store. One crucial aspect concerning quality is security. Security is achieved through Google Play protect and anti-malware solutions. However, they are not totally efficient since they rely on application features and application execution threads. Google provides additional elements to enable consumers to collectively evaluate applications providing their experiences via reviews or showing their satisfaction through rating. The latter is more informal and hides details of rating whereas the former is textually expressive but requires further processing to understand opinions behind. Literature lacks approaches which mine reviews through sentiment analysis to extract useful information to improve security aspects of provided applications. This work goes in this direction and in a fine-grained way, investigates in terms of confidentiality, integrity, availability and authentication (CIAA). While assuming that reviews are reliable and not fake, the proposed approach determines review polarities based on CIAA-related keywords. We rely on the popular classifier Naive Bayes to classify reviews into positive, negative and neutral sentiment. We then provide an aggregation model to fusion different polarities to obtain application global and CIAA reputations. Quantitative experiments have been conducted on 13 applications including e-banking, live messaging and anti-malware apps with a total of 1050 security-related reviews and 7.835.322 functionality-related reviews. Results show that 23% of applications (03 apps) have a reputation greater than 0.5 with an accent on integrity, authentication and availability, while the remaining 77% has a polarity under 0.5. Developers should make lot of efforts in security while developing codes and that more efforts should be made to improve confidentiality reputation. Results also show that applications with good functionality-related reputation generally offer bad security-related reputation. This situation means that even if the number of security reviews is low, it does not mean that security aspect is not a consumer preoccupation. Unlike, developers put much more time to test whether applications works without errors even if they include possible security vulnerabilities. A quantitative comparison against well-known rating systems reveals effectiveness and robustness of CIAA-RepDroid to repute apps in terms of security. CIAA-RepDroid can be associated to existing rating solutions to recommend developers exact CIAA aspects to improve within source codes.

Accurate agricultural commodity price models enable efficient allocation of limited natural resources, leading to improved sustainability in agriculture. Because of climate change, price volatility and uncertainty for the sector are expected to increase in the future, increasing the need for improved price modeling. With the emergence of machine learning (ML) algorithms, novel tools are now available to enhance the modeling of agricultural commodity prices. This research uses both univariate and multivariate ML techniques to perform probabilistic price prediction modelling for the Canadian beef industry, taking into account beef production, commodity market, and international trade features to enhance accuracy. We apply multivariate algorithms by using support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), and adaboost (AB) and univariate algorithms by using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA), and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous factors (SARIMAX). We apply these models to monthly fed steer price data between January 2005 and September 2023 and compare predicted prices with observed prices using several validation metrics. The outcomes indicate that both random forest (RF) and adaboost (AB) in multivariate modeling show superior performance in accurately predicting Alberta fed steer prices in comparison to other algorithms. To better account for the variance of the best model performance, we subsequently adopted a probabilistic approach by considering uncertainty in our best-selected ML model. The beef industry can use these improved price models to minimize resource waste and inefficiency in the sector and improve the long-term sustainability prospects for beef producers in Canada.

Energy system models have become indispensable to shape future energy systems by providing insights into different trajectories. However, sustainable systems with high shares of renewable energy are characterized by growing cross-sectoral interdependencies and decentralized structures. To capture important properties of increasingly complex energy systems, sophisticated and flexible modelling tools are needed. At the same time open science becomes increasingly important in energy system modelling. This paper presents the Open Energy Modelling Framework (oemof) as a novel approach in energy system modelling, representation and analysis. The framework forms a toolbox to construct comprehensive energy system models and has been published open source under a free license. With a collaborative development based on open processes the framework seeks for a maximum level of participation and transparency to facilitate open science principles in energy system modelling. Based on a generic graph based description of energy systems it is well suited to flexibly model complex cross-sectoral systems and incorporate various modelling approaches. This makes the framework a multi-purpose modelling environment for modelling and analyzing different systems ranging from an urban to a transnational scale.

The extensive deployment of wireless infrastructure provides a low-cost way to track mobile users in indoor environment. This paper demonstrates a prototype model of an accurate and reliable room location awareness system in a real public environment, where three typical problems arise. First, a massive number of access points (APs) can be sensed leading to a high-dimensional classification problem. Second, heterogeneous devices record different received signal strength (RSS) levels due to the variations in chip-set and antenna attenuation. Third, APs are not necessarily visible in every scanning cycle leading to missing data. This paper presents a probabilistic Wi-Fi fingerprinting method in a hidden Markov model (HMM) framework for mobile user tracking. Considering the spatial correlation of the signal strengths from multiple APs, a Multivariate Gaussian Mixture Model (MVGMM) is fitted to model the probability distribution of RSS measurements in each cell. Furthermore, the unseen property of invisible AP has been investigated in this research, and demonstrated the efficiency of differentiation between cells. The proposed system is able to achieve comparable localization performance. The filed test results present a reliable 97% localization room level accuracy of multiple mobile users in a real university campus WiFi network without any prior knowledge of the environment.

We discuss the influence played by different statistical models in the prediction of porosity and litho-fluid facies from logged and post-stack inverted acoustic impedance (Ip) values. We compare the inversion and classification results obtained under three different a-priori statistical assumptions: an analytical Gaussian distribution, an analytical Gaussian-mixture model and a non-parametric mixture distribution. The first model assumes Gaussian distributed porosity and Ip values, thus neglecting their facies-dependent behaviour caused by different lithologic and saturation conditions. Differently, the other two statistical models relate each component of the mixture to a specific litho-fluid facies, so that the facies-dependency of porosity and Ip values is taken into account. Blind well tests are used to validate the final predictions, whereas the analysis of the maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) solutions, the coverage ratio and the contingency analysis tools are used to quantitatively compare the inversion outcomes. This work points out that the correct choice of the statistical petrophysical model could be crucial in reservoir characterization studies. Indeed, for the investigated zone it turns out that the simple Gaussian model constitutes an oversimplified assumption, while the two mixture models provide more accurate results, although the non-parametric one yields slightly superior predictions with respect to the Gaussian-mixture assumption.

Recognizing trust as a pivotal element for success within Human-Robot Collaboration (HRC) environments, this article examines its nature, exploring the different dimensions of trust, analysing the factors affecting each of them, and proposing alternatives for trust measurement. To do so, we designed an experimental procedure involving 50 participants interacting with a modified 'Inspector game' while we monitor their brain, electrodermal, respiratory, and ocular activities. This procedure allowed us to map dispositional (static individual baseline) and learned (dynamic, based on prior interactions) dimensions of trust considering both demographic and psychophysiological aspects. Our findings challenge traditional assumptions regarding the dispositional dimension of trust and establish clear evidence that the first interactions are critical for the trust-building process and the temporal evolution of trust. By identifying more significant psychophysiological features for trust detection and underscoring the importance of individualized trust assessment, this research contributes to understanding the nature of trust in HRC. Such insights are crucial for enabling more seamless human-robot interaction in collaborative environments.

A non-steady state mathematical model of amino acid (phenylalanine (Phe)) and mineral salt (NaCl) solution separation by neutralization dialysis (ND) carried out in a batch mode is proposed. The model takes into account the characteristics of membranes (thickness, ion-exchange capacity and conductivity) and solutions (concentration, composition), as well as the flow rate of the solution in the dialyzer compartments. As compared to previously developed models, the new one considers the local equilibrium of Phe protolysis reactions in solutions and membranes and, also, the transport of all the phenylalanine forms (zwitterionic, positively and negatively charged) through membranes. A series of experiments on ND demineralization of NaCl and Phe mixed solution was carried out. In order to minimize Phe losses, the solution pH in the desalination compartment was controlled by changing the concentrations of the solutions in the acid and alkali compartments of the ND cell. The validity of the model was verified by comparison of simulated and experimental time dependencies of solution electric conductivity and pH, as well as the concentration of Na+, Cl– ions and Phe species in the desalination compartment. Based on the simulation results, the role of Phe transport mechanisms in the losses of this amino acid during ND was discussed.

Nodes in wireless sensor networks (WSN) are characterized particularly by their limited power and memory capabilities. Limited memory is an important parameter as it defines the size of the operating system and the processing code. As established previously, energy and memory efficiency is the most important evaluation factors of WSNs as they are directly related to data loss and network lifetime. However, based on our simulation results, memory efficiency determines the selection or abandon of nodes by the botmaster for the propagation of bots in an IoT infrastructure. Consequently, the node’s memory efficiency determined the spread of bots in the network and provides defense actors with an insight of the botmaster behavior for mitigation of the attack. Conventional botnet propagation and mitigation models did not consider the impact of node’s memory efficiency in the IoT platform. To address this gap, we build IoT-SIEF, a novel propagation model with forensic capability that will analyze command and control propagation behavior based on the perspective of the node’s memory efficiency. IoT-SIEF model used to explore the dynamics of propagation using numerical simulation with more than 50% outperform other models in mitigating the number of secondary bots. Consequently, it can serve as a basis for assisting the planning, design, and defense of such networks from the investigator's point of view.

The process of modelling energy systems is accompanied by challenges inherently connected with mathematical modelling. However, due to modern realities in the 21st century, existing challenges are gaining in magnitude and are supplemented with new ones. Modellers are confronted with a rising complexity of energy systems and high uncertainties on different levels. In addition, interdisciplinary modelling is necessary for getting insight in mechanisms of an integrated world. At the same time models need to meet scientific standards as public acceptance becomes increasingly important. In this intricate environment model application as well as result communication and interpretation is also getting more difficult. In this paper we present the open energy modelling framework (oemof) as a novel approach for energy system modelling and derive its contribution to existing challenges. Therefore, based on literature review, we outline challenges for energy system modelling as well as existing and emerging approaches. Based on a description of the philosophy and elementary structural elements of oemof, a qualitative analysis of the framework with regard to the challenges is undertaken. Inherent features of oemof such as the open source, open data, non-proprietary and collaborative modelling approach are preconditions to meet modern realities of energy modelling. Additionally, a generic basis with an object-oriented implementation allows to tackle challenges related to complexity of highly integrated future energy systems and sets the foundation to address uncertainty in the future. Experiences from the collaborative modelling approach can enrich interdisciplinary modelling activities. Our analysis concludes that there are remaining challenges that can neither be tackled by a model nor a modelling framework. Among these are problems connected to result communication and interpretation.

Industrial nameplates serve as a means of conveying critical information and parameters. In this work, we propose a novel approach for rectifying industrial nameplate pictures utilizing a probabilistic Hough transform. Our method effectively corrects for distortions and clipping, and features a collection of challenging nameplate pictures for analysis. To determine the corners of the nameplate, we employ a progressive probability Hough transform, which not only enhances detection accuracy but also possesses the ability to handle complex industrial scenarios. The results of our approach are clear and readable nameplate text, as demonstrated through experiments that show improved accuracy in model identification compared to other methods.

Multiple governmental agencies and private organisations have made commitments for the colonisation of Mars. Such colonisation requires complex systems and infrastructure that could be very costly to repair or replace in cases of cyber-attacks. This paper surveys deep learning algorithms, IoT cyber security and risk models, and established mathematical formulas to identify the best approach for developing a dynamic and self-adapting system for predictive cyber risk analytics supported with Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning and real-time intelligence in edge computing. The paper presents a new mathematical approach for integrating concepts for cognition engine design, edge computing and Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to automate anomaly detection. This engine instigates a step change by applying Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning embedded at the edge of IoT networks, to deliver safe and functional real- time intelligence for predictive cyber risk analytics. This will enhance capacities for risk analytics and assists in the creation of a comprehensive and systematic understanding of the opportunities and threats that arise when edge computing nodes are deployed, and when Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning technologies are migrated to the periphery of the internet and into local IoT networks.

The fuel cell particularly the Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) is a new energy technology that plays a critical role in achieving market viability. The PEMFC has high power density, zero CO₂ emissions, and high conversion efficiency. However, with uniform distribution of fuel in PEMFC, we can improve the performance and reduce the cost. The PEMFC will be more efficient and effective in terms of renewable energy as a byproduct only water. Metal foam is used as an alternative for the channels in PEMFC. The model of PEMFC was established by using the ANSYS Fluent 3D Model. Then we proposed four configurations of PEMFC. The outcome demonstrates that Case IV provided outstanding performance if it is compared with the other three cases. In terms of power density, Case IV provided a high power density that is double that of Case I. The porosity of metal foam was investigated. The 0.6 porosity value is found as the optimal value. The uniform distribution of the fuel can be achieved at this value which leads to the outstanding current density.

This study presents the results of a research project financed by the Lazio Regional Government. The research focused on defining an integrated model of recent alluvial deposits in the Tiber River. To achieve this objective, geological boreholes were made to monitor the aquifer and in situ and laboratory tests carried out. The data obtained was used to detail stratigraphic aspects and improve the comprehension of water circulation beneath the recent alluvial deposits of the Tiber River in the urban area of Rome, between the Ponte Milvio bridge and the Tiber Island. The stratigraphic intervals recognised in the boreholes were parameterised based on their litho-technical characteristics. The new data acquired, and integrated with existing data in the CNR IGAG database, made it possible to produce a three-dimensional model of the lithologies in the study area.The model of the subsoil, simplified for applied reasons, was described in hy-drostratigraphic terms: three different lithotypes were subjected to piezometric levels monitor-ing. Finally, the research generated a numerical hydrological level in a stationary regime. In general, this study demonstrates how a numerical hydrogeological model calibrated by piezo-metric monitoring data can support the construction of a geological model, discarding or con-firming certain hypotheses and suggesting other means of reconstructing sedimentary bodies.

The catastrophic failure of two dams in Libya in the night of 10th and 11th September 2023, resulted in a significant amount of water and debris destroying a large part of the city of Derna, which is located downstream of the two dams. The flood caused more than 6000 fatalities and the dis-placement of thousands of people from the city. The dams failed due to heavy rainfall caused by the Medicane Daniel, resulting in intense precipitation and the dams overspilling after reaching full capacity. This paper analyses the consequences of the dam breach by modelling the flow discharge and the flooding of the city of Derna. The analysis compares the computed quantities with the findings of the post-event satellite image analysis from UNOSAT and Copernicus, the field reports, and information gathered from the social media through AI detection. The results allows to better understand the dynamics of the dam breach, its initial parameters and an assessment of the accu-racy of the results.

Gene editing is now easy to make new disease models through in-vivo and in vitro tests. It can potentially be used to make animals with single-gene or multiple-gene changes. The mutant strains with changed germlines are no longer needed with in vivo gene editing, which uses the CRISPR-Cas9 system to target cells of interest in their normal tissues. Whereas, the AAVs and other viral vectors have made it possible to change cells selectively. Gene editing hade made it possible to use human induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSC) to model diseases that run in families. Researchers can compare and contrast the human genomes of many different ethnic and racial groups using this method. Scientists may be able to make a disease in a lab dish using iPSCs from a patient. Using CRISPR, iPSCs made from patient cells can be fixed if they have certain problems. This shows that gene therapy is possible and shows what happens when cells aren't working right. The fact that CRISPR-Cas9 can change the DNA by just one nucleotide has had a huge effect on biological studies. CRISPR is becoming more and more popular, which shows how useful, easy, and effective it is. With the broad use of CRISPR-based apps, the tool is now used for much more than just changing genes. This method can be used to screen the whole genome, control the translation of genes based on their sequence, and edit several genes at the same time. Scientists can now model diseases in different species and learn more about how genes work because of these advances. Genome-wide association studies and genome-editing tools like CRISPR are giving us a good look at the future of personalized medicine.

Neural-objective and image optimization approaches for drilling fluid rheology automation are crucial for drilling engineering optimization. A myriad of intelligent computational models are employed to predict and monitor the parameters of mud rheology and filter cake permeability posture using an artificial neural network feedforward (ANN-FF) function, a non-ANN-FF function, an image processing tool, and a model optimization tool. 498 datasets of synthetic-based mud (SBM) flat rheology from a drilling mud laboratory at Nazarbayev University were imported into a user-friendly MATLAB application using image processing and nftool. Apart from the Google TensorFlow Sequential API DNN architecture used, a Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm with input sigmoid hidden neurons 10, 12, and 18 coupled with a linear output layer was also used to predict the SBM flow index. OBM and SBM filter cakes were processed for void spaces; however, a model study was extrapolated to maximize filtration volume Vf. The study’s findings show that the ANN-FF model employed for rheological property monitoring and prediction had higher steady and exponential levels of accuracy and a correlation coefficient of 0.96-0.99. More so, SBM and OBM image processing presented an area of void spaces of 1790M2 and 1739M2, respectively. The porosity and permeability postures of both SBM and OBM resulted in a significant void space capable of maximizing the flow index. In addition, the single-objective modelling based on a genetic algorithm did validate the experimental rheological data for flow index or filtration volume Vf optimization; the study resulted in the finding that the constrained physics-informed objective function hindered maximizing oil recovery and instead predicted possible formation damage. It is empirical to note that automating flow predictions with neural, objective, and image functions has presented an alternative novel method for non-programmers using MATLAB and Google Colabs that is capable of enhancing mud rheological parameters, drilling efficiency, and hydrocarbon recovery.

Marketing is the manner of how to make our sales the best in the market, our prices the most accessible, our clients satisfactory, and thus our brand is the largest distributed. This needs sophisticated and advanced understanding of the total network related. Indeed, marketing data may be seen in different forms such as qualitative and quantitative. However, in the literature, it is easily noticed that large bibliography may be collected about qualitative studies, against few studies on the quantitative point of view. This is a major drawback that makes the marketing science still focusing on the design, although the market is strongly depending on quantities such as money and time. Indeed, marketing data may be a time series such as brand sales per specified periods, brand related-prices over specified periods, market shares, ..., etc. The purpose of the present work is to investigate some marketing models based on time series due to brands. We will precisely study the effect of the time scale on the persistence of brands sales in the market and on the forecasting of such a persistence according to the characteristics of the brand and the related market competition or competitors. Our study is acted on a sample of Saudi brands during the period November 22, 2017 to December 30, 2021.

Microbes do not live in isolation but in microbial communities. The relevance of microbial communities is increasing due to the awareness about their biotechnological influences in a huge number of environmental, health and industrial processes. Hence, being able to control and engineer the output of both natural and synthetic communities would be of great interest. However, most of the available methods and biotechnological applications (both in vivo and in silico) have been developed in the context of isolated microbes. In vivo microbial consortia development, i.e. to reproduce the community life conditions in the wet-lab, is extremely difficult and expensive requiring of computational approaches to advance knowledge about microbial communities, mainly with descriptive modelling, and further with engineering modelling. In this review we provide a detailed compilation of available examples of engineered microbial communities as a launch pad for an exhaustive and historical revision of those computational methods devoted so far toward the better understanding, and rational engineering of natural and synthetic microbial communities.

Laser scanning is an effective tool for acquiring geometric attributes of trees and vegetation, which lays a solid foundation for 3-dimensional tree modelling. Existing studies on tree modelling from laser scanning data are vast. Nevertheless, some works don’t ensure sufficient modelling accuracy, while some other works are mainly rule-based and therefore highly depend on user inputs. In this paper, we propose a novel method to accurately and automatically reconstruct tree branches from laser scans. We first extract an initial tree skeleton from the input tree point cloud, then simplify the skeleton through iteratively removing redundant components. A global-optimization approach is performed to fit a sequence of cylinders to approximate the geometry of the tree branches. Experiments on various types of trees from different data sources demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our method. The resulted tree models can be further applied in the precise estimation of tree attributes, urban landscape visualization, etc.

Selected by in vitro techniques (SELEX, cell-SELEX), aptamers are strands of DNA or RNA molecules able to bind a wide range of targets, from small molecules to live cells, and even tissues, with high affinity and specificity. Due to their efficient targeting ability, aptamers are extensively used in different fields of applications. For example, they ensure high performance as cancer-related markers or in recognizing cancer cells. Actually, they represent a promising way for early diagnosis (biosensors) and to deliver imaging agents and drugs, in both cancer imaging and therapy (therapeutic aptamers). Aptamer-based biosensors (aptasensors) have attracted particular attention over the last decades, so as the possibility of using aptamers in disease therapy in substitution of monoclonal antibodies. The paper briefly reviews the most recent literature on this topic, both concerning the advances in biomedical applications and in the development of electrical aptasensors. The investigation concerning the bioelectronics features of aptamers, to be implemented in the development of electrical nanobiosensors, is also reviewed. To this aim, some recent results of a theoretical/computational framework for modelling the electrical properties of biomolecules (Proteotronics) are reported.

In this paper, aiming at the safety evaluation of ultimate bearing safety capacity of ultra-high-performance-concrete (UHPC) composite pile bridge foundation, the symmetrical reliability method with forward and inverse analysis considering the randomness of parameters is proposed to evaluate the safety performance of composite pile foundation. The proposed method, consid-ering the randomness of parameters, was used to calculate the safety factor of ultimate bearing capacity of composite pile foundation to meet the prescribed target reliability requirements. An example was used to verify the correctness of the proposed method. The proposed method was applied to an actual engineering example and the sensitivity of the parameters were analyzed, the calculation results show that: ignoring the randomness of the parameters will overestimate the safety of the composite pile foundation; the target reliability index has a great influence on the safety of composite pile foundation; the influence of statistical parameters of random variables on the safety of UHPC composite pile foundation cannot be neglected; the initial iteration value of the safety factor has no effect on the final calculation result. The proposed method has high ac-curacy and applicability, and provides an effective way for the safety factor estimation of ultimate carrying capacity of UHPC composite pile foundation.

Animal models of diseases in particular, the mice, are considered to be the cornerstone for translational research in immunology. The aim of the present study is to model the geometry and analyze the network structure of murine lymphatic system (LS). The algorithm for building the graph model of the LS makes use of anatomical data. To identify the edge directions of the graph model, a mass balance approach to lymph dynamics based on Hagen-Poiseuille equation is applied. It is the first study in which a geometric model of the murine LS has been developed and characterized in terms of its structural organization and the lymph transfer function. Our study meets the demand for quantitative mechanistic approaches in the growing field of immunoengineering to utilize or exploit the lymphatic system for immunotherapy.

It is shown by numerical modelling that anisotropic diffusion can compensate and even overcome diffusion broadening - the main limiting factor of devices working at atmospheric pressure. The thickness of ion clouds coming out of the ionisation chamber is reduced ~ 1000 times in the ADMA inlet increasing the resolution. This finding has a great potential that enables construction of a device with resolution close to that of currently available desktop ion separation devices – high pressure mass spectrometers, but with much lower cost of manufacture and with smaller dimensions. Comprehensive numerical modelling along with mathematical analysis of physical concepts enables reduction of the footprint and manufacturing costs. Modelling determined that the resolving power (RP) potential of the ADMA is greater than the RP of currently available on the market devices for the airport security market. The ADMA technology enables very fast detection of threats; at least 100 times faster than currently used in Ion Mobility Spectrometers (IMS). This potentially allows an increase in passenger throughput in airports.

A set of programs for the numerical simulation of the diffusion decomposition processes was developed by using simulation methods, kinetic and particle method. The complex has been validated on the model system Ni-Al by the growth of -phase separations. The results on the evolution of the distribution function and other characteristics of the ensemble, which in the zero volume fraction approximation are asymptotically in good agreement with the theory and the experiment, have been obtained. The peculiarity of the created program complex is the possibility of its adaptation to the description of the decomposition of multicomponent multiphase systems. Fig. 6, list of references - 19 titles.

Globally, groundwater is the largest distributed storage of freshwater that plays an important role in an ecosystem’s sustainability in addition to aiding human adaptation to both climatic change and variability. However, groundwater resources are dynamic and often changes as a result of land usage, abstraction as well as variation in climate. Thus, efficient management of groundwater resources to prevent overexploitation, scarcity, and minimising the effects of drought has become a major challenge for researchers as well as water managers. Furthermore, a number of research challenges such as the lack of computational efficiency and scalability due to uncertainties from input parameters to the groundwater resource model have been revealed in the management of groundwater resources. To solve these challenges, many conventional solutions such as numerical techniques have been proffered for groundwater modelling. Also, the use of data-driven techniques such as machine learning is gaining more attraction to solve these aforementioned challenges. Thus, this has made efficient data gathering essential to maintain da-ta-driven groundwater resources management models from the observation site. The global evolution of the Internet of Things (IoTs), has increased the nature of data gathering for the management of groundwater resources. In addition, efficient data-driven groundwater resource management relies hugely on information relating to changes in groundwater resources as well as their availability. Although the IoTs enabled automated data processing systems are in existence by transmitting the generated data from IoT enabled devices into the cloud through the Internet. However, traditional IoT Internet is not scalable and efficient enough to process the generated vast IoT data At the moment, some pieces of the literature revealed the groundwater managers lack an efficient, scalable and real-time groundwater management system to gather the required data. Also, the literature revealed that the existing methods of collecting data lack efficiency to meet computational model requirements and meet management objectives. Thus, it is necessary to have an efficient and scalable IoT system to extract valuable information in real-time for groundwater resource management. Unlike previous surveys which solely focussed on particular groundwater issues related to simulation and optimisation management methods, nonetheless, this paper seeks to highlight the current groundwater management models as well as the IoT contributions

Resilience has emerged as a buzzword among researchers and practitioners. However, despite its popularity, there has been little progress in moving it from an elaborate metaphor describing an idyllic state of the system to a tool for planning and managing adaptation. While case study research is rich with examples of systems that have proven to be resilient or are striving to develop resilience, there is no defined approach that operationalises concepts described in the literature into the planning process. This paper helps close this gap by illustrating how facilitated modelling can be used for resilience planning in socio-ecological systems. The paper summarizes our experience using facilitated system dynamics to inform a model-based discussion of food security resilience to climate change in Guatemala. We identify at least three positive outcomes from the intervention, which a) helped to build consensus about the meaning of resilience, b) improved stakeholders understanding of adaptation and c) outlined potential policies to enhance resilience.

It is the aim of this article to introduce a concise notation that is be able to capture the most important dimensions of sexuality and thus facilitate discussions. Moreover, the major three dimensions - sex, gender, and sexual orientation - lead to a straightforward classification which motivates the quest for stringent explanatory models, some of which are also discussed.

. This paper features an analysis of the relative effectiveness of a variety of methods of modelling Realised Volatility (RV), namely: the use of Gegenbaur processes in Auto-Regressive Moving Average format, GARMA, as opposed to Heterogenous Auto-Regressive HAR models and simple rules of thumb. The analysis is applied to two data sets that feature the RV of the S&P500 index, as sampled at 5 minute intervals, provided by the Oxford Man RV database. The GARMA model does perform slightly better than the HAR model, but both models are matched by a simple rule of thumb regression model based on the application of lags of squared, cubed and quartic, demeaned daily returns.

pump as turbine (PAT); computational fluid dynamics; variable rotational nominal speed; OpenFoam.

This paper is focused on understanding multiscale modelling to obtain a bridge among different time and length scales of simulation techniques. These techniques are vital as it holds the potential to understand and predict the capabilities of polymer nanocomposites (PNCs). However, an appropriate approach in controlling the interfacial interaction between nanoparticle and polymer in nanocomposites structure is still needed to develop. In this review, an initial brief introduction to various trending simulation techniques has been discussed at all three levels of scale (nm, μm, mm). Later, descriptive study on fundamental issues such as thermodynamics, kinetics, mechanical properties, and morphology has been studied deeply. The multiscale modeling bridges the gaps of simulation between the different scales of models from molecular to mesoscale levels working over the broad range of length and timescale. Through the sequential, adaptive, and concurrent approaches, we can develop a system that may comprehend multiscale mode modeling adaptive resolution approach has recently added approach the molecule of the subject can shift their position freely in the domain and through this approach and studied the Brownian motion. Co-The co-current coach is also termed as handshaking path and it is linked aiming at different scale models. Covering the rigid techniques smoothly and linking them at different scales helps in normalizing the statistical behaviour.

Heat and power cogeneration plants based on fuel cells are interesting systems for energy- conversion at low environmental impact. Different fuel cells have been proposed, but experimental testing rigs are expensive and the development of commercial systems is time consuming if based on fully experimental activities. Furthermore, tight control of operation of fuel cells is compulsory to avoid damage, which must be based on accurate models, able to predict the cell behaviour and prevent stresses and shut-down. Some selected examples of steady state, dynamic and fluid dynamic modelling of different types of fuel cells are proposed, mainly PEMFC and SOFC type. The general ideas behind the thermodynamic, kinetic and transport description are recalled, with some examples of models derived for single cells, stacks and integrated power co-generation units.

Materials characterised by magnetorheological properties are non-classic engineering materials. A significant increase in the interest of scientific community in materials from this group can be observed over the recent several years. The results of research presented in this article are oriented on the examination of said materials’ mechanical properties. In order to do so, stress relaxation tests were conducted on cylindrical samples of magnetorheological elastomers loaded with compressive stress for various values of magnetic induction (B1 = 0 mT, B2 = 32 mT, B3 = 48 mT, and B4 = 64 mT) and temperature (T1 = 25° C, T2 = 30° C, and T3 = 40° C). The results of these tests indicate that the stiffness of examined samples increases along with the increase of magnetic field induction and decreases along with the increase of temperature. On this basis, it has been determined that: the biggest stress amplitude change caused by the influence of magnetic field was σ0ΔB = 12.7% and the biggest stress amplitude change caused by the influence of temperature was σ0ΔT = 11.3%. As a result of applying a mathematical model, it has been indicated that the stress relaxation in the examined magnetorheological elastomer for the adopted time range (t = 3600 s) has a hyperbolic decline nature. The collected test results point to examined materials being characterised by extensive rheological properties, which leads to a conclusion that it is necessary to conduct further tests in this scope.

Integrated Model of Distributed Systems is used for modeling and verification. In formalism, the distributed system is modeled as a collection of server states and agent messages. The evolution of the system takes the form of actions that transform the global system configuration (states and messages) into a new configuration. Formalism is used in the Dedan verification environment for finding different kinds of deadlocks: communication deadlocks in the server view and resource deadlocks in the agent view. For other purposes, a conversion has been developed to equivalent models: to Petri nets for structural analysis and do Distributed Autonomous and Asynchronous Automata (DA3) for easy graphical modeling in terms of system components. In addition, it is possible to simulate a verified system on distributed components in DA3. The automata have two forms: Server-DA3 (S-DA3) for the server view and Agent-DA3 (A-DA3) for the agent view. DA3 formalism is compared to other concepts of distributed automata known from the literature.

The aim of this paper is the presentation of an analytical model of insulator flashover and its application for air at atmospheric pressure and pressurized SF6. After a review of the main existing models in air and compressed gases, we develop a relationship of flashover voltage on the basis of an electrical equivalent circuit and the thermal properties of the discharge. The model includes the discharge resistance, the insulator impedance, and the gas interface impedance. The application of this model to a cylindrical resin-epoxy insulators in air medium and SF6 gas with different pressures gives results close to the experimental measurements.

In this study, an experimentally validated computational model was developed to investigate the hydrodynamics in a rotor-stator vortex RVR agglomeration reactor having a rotating disc at the centre with two shrouded outer plates. A numerical simulation was performed using a simplified form of the reactor geometry to compute the 3D flow field in batch mode operations. Thereafter, the model was validated using data from a 2D Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) flow analysis performed during the design of the reactor. Using different operating speeds—70, 90, 110 and 130 rpm, the flow fields were computed numerically followed by a comprehensive data analysis. The simulation results showed separated boundary layers on the rotating disc and the stator. The flow field within the reactor is characterized by a rotational plane circular forced vortex flow in which the streamlines are concentric circles with a rotational vortex. Overall, the results of the numerical simulation demonstrate a fairly good agreement between the CFD model and the experimental data as well as the available theoretical predictions. The swirl ratio β was found to be approximately 0.4044, 0.4038, 0.4044 and 0.4043 for operating speeds of N=70, 90, 110 and 130 rpm respectively. In terms of the spatial distribution, the turbulence intensity and kinetic energy are concentrated on the outer region of the reactor while the axial velocity showed a decreasing intensity towards the shroud. However, a comparison of the CFD and experimental predictions of the tangential velocity and the vorticity amplitude profiles shows that these parameters were under-predicted by the experimental analysis which could be attributed to some of the experimental limitations rather than the robustness of the CFD model or numerical code.

This article investigates a proposed new mathematical model that considers the infected individuals using various rate coefficients such as transmission, progression, recovery and vaccination. The fact that the dynamic analysis is completely determined by the basic reproduction number is established. More specifically, local and global stabilities of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium are proved under certain parameter conditions when the basic reproduction number is below or above unity. A realistic computer simulation is performed for better understanding of the variations in trends of different compartments after the outbreak of the disease.

A swarm based nature-inspired optimization algorithm namely fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOA) has simple structure and ease of implementation. However, FOA has a low success rate and a slow convergence because FOA generates new positions around the best location using fixed search radius. Several improved FOAs have been proposed. But their exploration ability is questionable. To make the search process to transit from the exploration phase to the exploitation phase smoothly, this paper proposes a new FOA constructed from a cooperation of the multileader and the probabilistic random walk strategies (CPFOA). It has two population types working together. CPFOA's performance is evaluated by 18 well-known standard benchmark, and 30 CEC’2017 functions. The results showed that CPFOA outperforms both the original FOA and its variants in terms of convergence speed and performance accuracy. The results base on CEC’2017 show that CPFOA can achieve a very promising accuracy when compared with the well-known competitive algorithms. CPFOA is applied to optimize two applications; the MLPs classifying real datasets and extracting parameters of T-S fuzzy system for modelling Box and Jenkins gas furnace data set. CPFOA can find parameters having a very high quality compared with the best known competitive algorithms.

The paradigm of molecular communications is applied to the concrete case for delivering electrically charged nanoparticles to tumor. Once them have been injecetd in blood it is expecetd an optimal outcome as to reduce toxicity and minimal dispersion of drugs in the blood stream. With a fraction of nanoparticles arrives to surface of tumor, the scattered part of injected ones can minimize the success of scheme of drug delivery. In this paper is presented a theory based at the sequence electrodynamics-diffusion-Bayes theorem. The resulting probability of Bayes at the end of sequence, might be telling us that dynamical processes based in the injection of electrically charged nanoparticles might be dictated by stochastic formalism more that biochemical approaches by which makes impossible to know the success or fail of drug delivery dynamics. Illustrations demonstrating the transition of a linear to nonlinear scenario are presented

A comprehensive review of uncertainties in power systems, covering modeling, impact, and mitigation, is essential to understand and manage the challenges faced by the electric grid. Uncertainties in power systems can arise from various sources and can have significant implications for grid reliability, stability, and economic efficiency. Australia, susceptible to extreme weather such as wildfires and heavy rainfall, faces vulnerabilities in its power network assets. The decentralized distribution of population centers poses economic challenges in supplying power to remote areas, a crucial consideration for emerging technologies emphasized in this paper. In addition, the evolution of modern power grids, facilitated by deploying the advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), has also brought new challenges to the system due to the risk of cyber-attacks via communication link. However, the existing literature lacks a comprehensive review and analysis of uncertainties in modern power systems, encompassing uncertainties related to weather events, cyberattacks, and asset management, as well as the advantages and limitations of various mitigation approaches. To fill this void, this review covers a broad spectrum of uncertainties considering their impacts on the power system and explores conventional robust control, and modern probabilistic and data-driven approaches for modelling and correlating the uncertainty events to the state of the grid for optimal decision making. This article also investigates the development of robust and scenario-based operations, control technologies for microgrids (MGs) and energy storage systems (ESSs), and demand-side frequency control ancillary service (D-FCAS) and reserve provision for frequency regulation to ensure a design of uncertainty-tolerance power system. This review delves into the trade-offs linked with the implementation of mitigation strategies, such as reliability, computational speed, and economic efficiency. It also explores how these strategies may influence the planning and operation of future power grids.

In this paper, we present a new stress calculation method for flexible structures, particularly, the tensile armors, and apply it to flexible riser fatigue analysis. The method is based on a 3-dimensional curved bar theory. First, the tensile armor center line was described as a cylindrical helix curve, its bended curve length and bending migration length were derived and studied under different friction scenarios. Second, the tensile and bending stiffness was given with consideration of frictional hysteretic effect, and verified through FEA analysis results. Third, we presented the stress calculation formula for tensile armor under tension and bending load. All stress components are considered, including tensile, bending and shear stresses. Fourth, the method was benchmarked with published experimental results on a flexible prototype tension and bending tests, and comparisons showed general agreements. Fifth, the method is further applied to a 8” flexible riser for fatigue assessment and lifetime extension evaluation, and showed the flexible riser has sufficient remaining fatigue life, and is suitable to continue its service under the current operating conditions. Last, conclusions are drawn. It concluded that the presented tensile armor stress calculation method and modelling techniques are valid for flexible riser fatigue analysis. This method is time efficient, and can be implemented into other multi-scale models for riser dynamic analysis. It is also applicable to other similar helix structure stress analysis, such as wire ropes, submarine hoses, and subsea umbilicals.

Since the 20th century, Japan has experienced a period of very rapid urbanization. Cities have experienced substantial densification and expansion, resulting in gradually elevated flood risk. Urban flooding has also occurred in most large cities in Japan, particularly in Tokyo. In response to this growing problem, much effort and resources have been spent on research and development aimed at understanding, simulating, and managing urban flood risk in Japan. The objective of this review is to summarize, discuss and share key outputs from some of the main research directions in this field, significant parts of which have been uniquely developed in Japan and only published in Japanese. After a general introduction to urban runoff modelling, in the next section, key historical works in Japan are summarized, followed by a description of the situation in Japan with respect to observations of precipitation and water level. Then, the storage function model approach is reviewed, including an extension to urban basins, as well as recent experiments with AI-based emulation in Japanese basins. Subsequently, we review the prospects of detailed hydrodynamic modelling involving high-resolution, vector-based Geographical Information System (GIS) data for the optimal description of the urban environment with applications in Tokyo. We conclude the paper with some future prospects related to urban flood risk modelling and assessment in Japan.

In this study, the Bohler K 190 steel was used. The steel was manufactured by the powder metallurgy (PM) process. The boronizing process was carried out in the range of 1173 to 1323 K, for 1-10 h. The samples were boronized in solid medium, called the Durborid powder mixture. For the microstructural observations, the scanning electron microscopy was utilized for determining the morphology of interfaces and measuring the layers’ thicknesses. The phase composition of boride layers was also determined with X-ray diffraction analysis. To investigate the redistribution of chemical elements redistribution during the boronizing process, the EDS mapping and EDS point analysis were used. The boride layers were constituted by FeB and Fe2B phases except for 1173 K for 1 h. The values of Vickers microhardness of Fe2B, FeB and transition zone were estimated. Finally, to assess the boron activation energies in FeB and Fe2B, the so-called integral method was applied and the results in terms of activation energies were confronted with the literature data.

Malaria is a critical fevered illness caused by Plasmodium parasites transmitted among people through the bites of infected female Anopheles mosquitoes. Public awareness about the disease is important for the control of disease. This article proposes a mathematical model to study the dynamics of malaria disease transmission with the influence of awareness-based control interventions. We found two equilibria of the model, namely the disease-free and endemic equilibrium. Disease-free equilibrium is stable globally if basic reproduction number (R0) is less than unity (R0<1). Some basic mathematical properties of the proposed model, such as nonnegativity and boundedness of solutions, the feasibility of the equilibrium points and their stability properties, have been studied. Finally, we adopted optimal control to minimize the cost of disease control and solve the problem by formulating Hamiltonian functional. The optimal use of insecticides for controlling the mosquito population is determined. Numerical simulations have been provided for the confirmation of the analytical results. We conclude that media awareness with optimal control approach is best for cost-effective malaria disease management.