In recent years, with the rapid development of technology, artificial intelligence(AI) security issues represented by adversarial sample attack have aroused widespread concern in society. Adversarial samples are often generated by surrogate models and then transfer to attack the target model, and most AI models in real-world scenarios belong to black boxes, thus transferability becomes a key factor to measure the quality of adversarial samples. The traditional method relies on the decision boundary of the classifier and takes the boundary crossing as the only judgment metric without considering the probability distribution of the sample itself, which results in an irregular way of adding perturbations to the adversarial sample, an unclear path of generation, and a lack of transferability and interpretability. In the probabilistic generative model, after learning the probability distribution of the samples, a random term can be added to the sampling to gradually transform the noise into a new independent and identically distributed sample. Inspired by this idea, we believe that by removing the random term, the adversarial sample generation process can be regarded as static sampling of the probabilistic generative model, which guides the adversarial samples out of the original probability distribution and into the target probability distribution, and helps to improve transferability and interpretability. Therefore, we propose a Score Matching-Based Attack(SMBA) method to perform the adversarial sample attacks by manipulating the probability distribution of the samples, which can show good transferability in the face of different datasets and models, and give reasonable explanations from the perspective of mathematical theory and feature space. In conclusion, our research establishes a bridge between probabilistic generative models and adversarial samples, provides a new entry angle for the study of adversarial samples, and brings new thinking to AI security.

Based on recent contributions regarding the treatment of unsteady hydraulic conditions into the state-of-the-art of scour literature, the theoretically derived probability distribution of bridge scour is introduced. The model is derived assuming a rectangular hydrograph shape with a given duration, and random flood peak following a Gumbel distribution. A model extension for a more complex flood event is also presented, assuming a synthetic exponential hydrograph shape. The mathematical formulation can be extended to any flood-peak probability distribution. The aim of the manuscript is to move forward the current approaches adopted for the bridge design coupling hydrological, hydraulic, and erosional models in a mathematical closed form.

Philippines as an archipelago and tropical country, which is situated near the Pacific ocean, faces uncertain rainfall intensities. This makes environmental, agricultural and economic systems affected by precipitation difficult to manage. Time series analysis of Philippine rainfall pattern has been previously done, but there is no study investigating its probability distribution. Modeling the Philippine rainfall using probability distributions is essential, especially in managing risks and designing insurance products. Here, daily and cumulative rainfall data (January 1961 - August 2016) from 28 PAGASA weather stations are fitted to probability distributions. Moreover, the fitted distributions are examined for invariance under subsets of the rainfall data set. We observe that the Gamma distribution is a suitable fit for the daily up to the ten-day cumulative rainfall data. Our results can be used in agriculture, especially in forecasting claims in weather index-based insurance.

Distributions with bounded support show considerable sparsity over those with unbounded support, despite the fact that there are a number of real-world contexts where observations take values from a bounded range (proportions, percentages, and fractions are typical examples). For proportion modelling, a flexible family of two-parameter distribution functions associated with the exponential distribution is proposed here. Mathematical and statistical properties of the novel distribution are examined, including quantiles, mode, moments, hazard rate function, and its characterization. The parameter estimation procedure using the maximum likelihood method was carried out, and applications to environmental and engineering data were also considered. To this end, various statistical tests are used, along with some other information criterion indicators to determine how well the model fits the data. The proposed model is found to be the most efficient plan in most cases for the datasets considered.

Panel data of our interest consist of a moderate number of panels, while the panels contain a small number of observations. An estimator of common breaks in panel means without a boundary issue for this kind of scenario is proposed. In particular, the novel estimator is able to detect a common break point even when the change happens immediately after the first time point or just before the last observation period. Another advantage of the elaborated change point estimator is that it results in the last observation in situations with no structural breaks. The consistency of the change point estimator in panel data is established. The results are illustrated through a simulation study. As a by-product of the developed estimation technique, a theoretical utilization for correlation structure estimation, hypothesis testing, and bootstrapping in panel data is demonstrated. A practical application to non-life insurance is presented as well.

The probability distribution of the interevent time between two successive earthquakes has been subject of numerous studies due to its key role in seismic hazard assessment. In recent decades, many distributions have been considered and there has been a long debate about the possible universality of the shape of this distribution when the interevent times are suitably rescaled. In this work we aim to find out if there is a link between the different phases of a seismic cycle and the variations in the distribution that best fits the interevent times. To do this, we consider the seismic activity related to the Mw 6.1 L’Aquila earthquake that occurred on April 6, 2009 in central Italy by analyzing the sequence of events recorded from April 2005 to July 2009, and then the seismic activity linked to the sequence of the Amatrice-Norcia earthquakes of Mw 6 and 6.5 respectively and recorded in the period from January 2009 to June 2018. We take into account some of the most studied distributions in the literature: q-exponential, q-generalized gamma, gamma and exponential distributions and, according to the Bayesian paradigm, we compare the value of their posterior marginal likelihood in shifting time windows with a fixed number of data. The results suggest that the distribution providing the best performance changes over time and its variations may be associated with different phases of the seismic crisis.

Following Dirac’s notation in Quantum Mechanics (QM), we propose the Probability Bracket Notation (PBN), by defining a probability-bra (P-bra), P-ket, P-bracket, P-identity, etc…Using the PBN, many formulas, such as normalizations and expectations in systems of one or more random variables, can now be written in abstract basis-independent expressions, easy to expand by inserting a proper P-identity. The time evolution of homogeneous Markov processes can also be formatted in such a way. Our system P-kets are identified with probability vectors and our P-bra system is comparable with Doi’s state function or Peliti’s standard bra. In the Heisenberg picture of the PBN, a random variable becomes a stochastic process, and the Chapman-Kolmogorov equations are obtained by inserting a time-dependent P-identity. Also, some QM expressions in Dirac notation are naturally transformed to probability expressions in PBN by a special Wick rotation. Potential Applications show the usefulness of the PBN beyond the constrained domain and range of Hermitian operators on Hilbert Spaces in QM all the way to IT.

The philosophy of testing statistical hypothesis is a natural consequence and functional extension of mathematical analysis of Probability. Along with the concept of recurrence when applied to random sequences and functions, it leads to the analysis of a priori and posterior which implies testing statistical hypothesis. Testing statistical hypothesis also involves algebraic, functional and dimensional considerations, which are found in the works of Laplace. Aspects of mathematical analysis such as universality of solutions, Laws of Large Numbers, Entropy, Information, and various functional dependencies are the main factors explained in the five properties that lead to implication of testing statistical hypothesis. Various interesting examples with modern scientific significance from genetics, astrophysics, and other areas give methodological access to answers of different problems and phenomena which are involved in the logic of testing statistical hypothesis.

This paper addresses the optimal stochastic allocation of Distributed Energy Resources in distribution Networks. Typically, uncertain problems are analyzed in multi-stage formulations including case generation routines, resulting in computationally exhaustive programs. In this article, two probabilistic approaches are proposed resulting in a single-stage, convex, stochastic optimal power flow problem: The Range-Probability Optimization (RPO) and Value-Probability Optimization (VPO). The RPO maximizes probabilities within a range of uncertainty, whilst the VPO optimizes the values of the random variables and maximizes their probabilities. Random variables are modeled with hourly measurements fitted to the logistic distribution. These formulations were tested on two systems and compared against the deterministic case built from expected values. Results indicate that assuming deterministic conditions ends in highly underestimated losses. The RPO showed that by including a ±10 % uncertainty, the losses can be increased up to 40 % with up to −72 % photovoltaic capacity, depending on the system, whereas the VPO resulted in up to 85 % increases in power losses despite PV installations, with 20 % greater probabilities in average. By implementing any of the proposed approaches, it was possible to obtain more probable upper envelopes in the objective, avoiding case generation stages and heuristic methods.

Developing new ways to estimate probabilities can be valuable for science, statistics, and engineering. By considering the information content of different output patterns, recent work invoking algorithmic information theory has shown that a priori probability predictions based on pattern complexities can be made in a broad class of input-output maps. These algorithmic probability predictions do not depend on a detailed knowledge of how output patterns were produced, or historical statistical data. Although quantitatively fairly accurate, a main weakness of these predictions is that they are given as an upper bound on the probability of a pattern, but many low complexity, low probability patterns occur, for which the upper bound has little predictive value. Here we study this low complexity, low probability phenomenon by looking at example maps, namely a finite state transducer, natural time series data, RNA molecule structures, and polynomial curves. Some mechanisms causing low complexity, low probability behaviour are identified, and we argue this behaviour should be assumed as a default in the real world algorithmic probability studies. Additionally, we examine some applications of algorithmic probability and discuss some implications of low complexity, low probability patterns for several research areas including simplicity in physics and biology, a priori probability predictions, Solomonoff induction and Occam's razor, machine learning, and password guessing.

The present work deals with the development of finite element methodology for obtaining the stress distributions in thick cylindrical HK40 stainless steel pipe that carry high temperature fluids. The material properties and loading are assumed to be random variables. Thermal stresses that are generated along radial, axial and tangential directions are computed generally using analytical expressions which are very complex. To circumvent such an issue, the probability theory and mathematical statistics have been applied to many engineering problems which allows to determine the safety both quantitatively and objectively based on the concepts of reliability. Monte Carlo simulation methodology is used to study the probabilistic characteristics of thermal stresses which is used for estimating the probabilistic distributions of stresses against the variations arising due to material properties and load. A 2-D Probabilistic finite element code is developed in MATLAB and the deterministic solution is compared with ABAQUS solutions. The values of stresses that are obtained from the variation of elastic modulus are found to be low as compared to the case where the load alone is varying. The probability of failure of the pipe structure is predicted against the variations in internal pressure and thermal gradient. These finite element framework developments are useful for the life estimation of piping structures in high temperature applications and subsequently quantifying the uncertainties in loading and material properties.

With the increasing concern of environment, the energy-efficiency scheduling of manufacturing industry is becoming urgent and popular. In turning processes, both spindle speed and processing time can affect the final energy consumption and thus the spindle speed and scheduling scheme need to be optimized simultaneously. Since the turning workshop can be regarded as the flexible flow shop, this paper formulates a mixed integer linear programming model for energy-efficient scheduling of flexible flow shop. Accordingly, a new decoding method is developed by considering of the optimization of spindle speed and scheduling scheme simultaneously, and an estimation of distribution algorithm adopting the new decoding method is proposed to solve large-size problems. The parameters of this algorithm are determined by statistical technique with a simplified practical case. In order to validate the proposed method, a case from practical factories is studied, in which the makespan can be shortened by 25.22%, and the consumed energy can be saved by 5.48%. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed mathematical model and algorithm.

Modelling diameter distribution is an integral part of forest management. It requires the use of a suitable probability density function or cumulative distribution function with the appropriate fitting method. In this study, we compared the suitability of eight probability density functions fitted by derivative and optimization methods used for diameter distribution estimation of forest stands. The derivation and optimization were used on A Charlier, beta, generalized beta, gamma, Gumbel, Johnson’s SB, and Weibull (2 and 3-parameter). We used data from 167 permanent sample plots from Atlantic forest (Quercus robur) and 59 temporary sample plots from tropical forests (Tectona grandis). The quality of the fits was evaluated with different indices such as Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Cramer-von Mises, mean absolute error, bias and mean squared error. The results showed Johnson’s SB function was more suitable for describing the diameter distribution of the stands. Johnson’s SB, 3-parameter Weibull and generalized beta had consistent performance regardless of the fitting methods. The quality of fits produced by gamma, Gumbel and 2-parameter Weibull was poor.

The Active Distribution Networks (ADNs) are Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) systems with coupled dynamics which cause interactions among the control loops of the Distributed Energy Resources (DERs). This undesired effect lead to performance degradation in the voltage control. To mitigate the effects of these unavoidable coupling, the present paper proposes a systematic design procedure based on the analysis of the interaction's sources. In details, each DER is equipped with a double loop PI to control the active and reactive powers output by the Voltage Source Converter (VSC) which connects the DER to the network's node. Furthermore, to guarantee Ancillary Services (ASs), the two loops are coupled by a simple mechanism of cooperation of the active power to voltage regulation realized by a filtered droop law. To achieve voltage regulation with reduced loop interactions, the PI parameters and the filter's pulse are designed according to a two sequential steps procedure based on the (Internal Model Control) IMC technique. Simulation studies are finally presented to demonstrate that the proposed design method achieves both reduction of the loop interaction and robust voltage control in presence of model parameter uncertainty in the MIMO model.

Moso bamboo is famous for fast growing and biomass accumulation, as well as high annual output for timber and bamboo shoots. These high outputs require high nutrient inputs to maintain and improve stand productivity. Soil nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) are important micronutrients for plant growth and productivity. Due to high variability of soils, analysing spatial patterns of soil N, P and K stocks is necessary for scientific nutrient management in Moso bamboo forests. In this study, soils were sampled from 138 locations across Yong’an City and ordinary kriging was applied for spatial interpolation of soil N, P and K stocks. Soil N stock showed a strong spatial dependence while soil N and P stocks presented a moderate spatial dependence, indicating soil N was mainly controlled by intrinsic factors while soil N and P stocks were controlled by both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Different spatial patterns were observed for soil N, P and K stocks across the whole study area, indicating that fertilizations with different ratios of N:P:K should be applied for different sites to maintain and improve stand productivity. The total soil N, P and K stocks within 0-60 cm were 0.624, 0.020 and 0.583 Tg, respectively.

The interest in virtual fencing, as opposed to traditional physical barriers, has increased since it makes it easier to move the boundaries of animal enclosures for agricultural and rewilding purposes. Despite this, the implementation of virtual fence systems, such as the Nofence© system, requires large financial investments. The necessity of individual collars also makes it more difficult to implement this system on a larger scale. If a herd of cattle tend to maintain cohesive social groups around dominant individuals, it might be possible to use fewer collars thereby making the system more cost efficient. This study investigates the pattern in spatial distribution in a herd of 17 Angus cows on Fanø in Denmark with GPS locations, using a Nofence© system. The aim of this paper is to determine how individuals position themselves in a herd, spatially, and identify a pattern in ranks. The method used in this study examines the distances between an individual to the rest of the herd mates using nearest neighbour and distribution plots. Contrary to the expectations, this study did not show a distinct pattern in herd distribution. While some tendencies in spatial distribution patterns were observed, only a low concordance could be found (W=0.15,p=3.02e−16). Therefore, interactions among individuals should be considered in future studies, rather than only investigating the herd as one unit. A cumulative curves of the ranks estimated over the entire periods allowed however a rough estimation of the hierarchy and allowed the identification of the highest ranked cows. Therefore it might be possible to use fewer collars if the high ranked cows are discovered, but the estimation of the hierarchy will require a period of observation overall several days as the hierarchical positions are fluctuating too much from days to days. Therefore the cumulative rank curves seems to be a valid solution.

Revealing the spatial distribution mechanism of the coupling effect between soil water and salt is essential for managing saline-alkali farmland. This study utilized the multifractal method to analyze soil water and salt under varying water content levels in arid saline-alkali farmland. Soil samples were collected on the second (S1), fifth (S2), eighth (S3), eleventh (S4), and fourteenth (S5) days after a rainfall event. The findings showed that a significant decrease in soil water content, contrasting with an increase in soil salt content throughout the soil layers post-rainfall. As water content decreased, the spatial variability of soil water initially increased from S1-3 and then decreased, while the spatial variability of soil salt decreased. The spatial distribution between soil water and salt exhibited a high correlation at S3-4 (with relative water content of soil ranging from 0.52 to 0.75) due to their coupling effect. However, soil salt was unevenly leached by rainfall at high water content levels (S1-2) and precipitated at low water content levels (S5), resulting in low spatial variability correlations between soil water and salt. This study elucidated the coupling process of soil water and salt, identifying their spatiotemporal distribution mechanism in dryland agricultural areas.

We find that the standard relative entropy and the Umegaki entropy are designed for the purpose of inferentially updating probability and density matrices respectively. From the same set of inferentially guided design criteria, both of the previously stated entropies are derived in parallel. This formulates a quantum maximum entropy method for the purpose of inferring density matrices in the absence of complete information.

As the adoption of renewable energy sources grows, ensuring a stable power balance across various time frames has become a central challenge for modern power systems. In line with the "dual carbon" objectives and the seamless integration of renewable energy sources, harnessing the advantages of various energy storage resources and coordinating the operation of long-term and short-term storage have become pivotal directions for future energy storage deployment. To address the complexities arising from the coupling of different time scales in optimizing energy storage capacity, this paper proposes a method for energy storage planning that accounts for power imbalance risks across multiple time scales. Initially, the Seasonal and Trend decomposition using the Loess (STL) decomposition method is utilized to temporally decouple actual operational data. Subsequently, power balance computations are performed based on the obtained data at various time scales to optimize the allocation of different types of energy storage capacities and assess the associated imbalance risks. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated through hourly applications using real-world data from a province in China over recent years.

Urban rail transit hub platform is the most important area for passenger flow distribution. In order to calculate passenger flow volume in platform and evaluate platform service level during rush hours, this paper presents a method for modeling and simulation of passenger flow distribution in platform. Passenger flow distribution model (PFDM) is proposed based on the basic analysis and the superposition principle of passenger flow. Simulation design for PFDM is proposed by Anylogic, which contains simulation process and simulation model. Experiment results show that PFDM and simulation design are effective and accordant with the reality scenario, and the simulation precision is comparatively ideal. This research could provide a beneficial reference for train scheduling and operation management under the viewpoint of traffic safety and service level.

This paper discusses about the quantum energy levels of muonic hydrogen considering only Coulomb interaction. The computational analysis in this paper will help the reader get a good understanding of how different a muonic hydrogen is from its electronic counterparts. Energy eigenvalues are calculated by numerical method and the probability density distribution of muon around the nucleus is plotted for different quantum states using special functions. The code is written in python. A comparative study of emission spectra between the muonic hydrogen and hydrogen has also been discussed.

Motivated by empirical observations, we propose a possible extension of Gibrat's law. By applying it into the random growth theory of income distribution (Gabaix, 2009), we find that the income distribution is described by a generalized Pareto-type distribution (GPD) with three parameters. We observe that there is a parameter /elta in the GPD that plays a key role in determining the shape of income distribution. By using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, we empirically show that, for typical market-economy countries, /elta is close to 0 significantly, such that the income distribution is characterized by a two-class pattern in which the bottom 90% of the population is approximated by an exponential distribution and the richest 1%~3% is approximated by an asymptotic power law. However, we empirically find that, for China both in planned economy period and in early stages of market reformation (from 1978 to 1990), /elta is significantly deviated from 0, such that the bottom of the population no longer conforms to an exponential distribution.

In order to investigate the size distributions and seasonal variations of carbonaceous aerosols (OC and EC), the carbonaceous species were collected and then analyzed by using a 9-stage Anderson-type aerosol sampler and DRI Model 2001A Thermal/Optical Carbon Analyzer on the typical industrial city Nanjing in Yangtze River Delta, China in the summer, autumn and winter of 2013 and spring of 2014. OC, EC, SOC and POC exhibited obvious seasonal variations, with the highest level in winter (39.1±14.0, 5.7±2.1, 23.6±11.7 and 14.1±5.7 μg•m^-3) and the lowest level in summer (20.6±6.7, 3.3±2.0, 12.2±3.8 and 8.4±4.1 μg•m^-3), and were mainly centralized in PM_1.1 in four seasons. The concentrations of OC in PM_1.1 varied in the order of winter > autumn > spring > summer, while EC ranked in the order of autumn > winter > summer > spring. In the PM_1.1-2.1 and PM_2.1-10, the concentrations of OC and EC decreased in the sequence of winter > spring > autumn > summer. The size spectra of OC, EC and SOC had bimodal distributions in four seasons, except for EC with four peaks in summer. The size spectra of POC varied greatly with seasons, exhibiting bimodal distribution in winter, trimodal distribution in spring and summer, and four peaks in autumn. The OC/EC ratios were 7.0, 6.3, 7.6 and 6.9 in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively, which demonstrated the abundance of secondary organic aerosols in Nanjing. The sources of carbonaceous aerosol varied significantly with seasons, and were dominated by vehicle exhaust, coal and biomass burning in PM_2.1, and dominant by dust, coal and biomass burning in PM_2.1-10.

Abstract: Global ecological concern regarding the transfer of fouling organisms to ship hulls is increasing. This study investigated the species composition, dominant species, distribution patterns, community structure, and life-cycle differences of hull-fouling macroinvertebrates on five research vessels (R/Vs: Isabu, Onnuri, Eardo, Jangmok 1, and Jangmok 2) operated by the Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST). Hull-fouling macroinvertebrates were collected three to five times on quadrats from the upper and middle sectors of the hull sides, bottom, and niche areas (the propellers and shafts and the thrusters). A total of 47 macroinvertebrate species were identified, represented by 8,519 individuals(ind.)/m2 and a biomass of 1,967 gWWt/m2 on the five vessels. The number of species, density, and biomass were greater on the coastal vessels the Eardo, Jangmok 1, and Jangmok 2 than on the ocean-going vessels the Isabu and Onnuri. Among the coastal vessels, barnacles were the most abundant and had the greatest density, while mollusks had the highest biomass. Differences between hull sectors showed that the highest species abundance and density appeared on all hulls in ports and bays where the Jangmok 1 operated, while the highest species abundance, density, and biomass were identified in the niche areas of the Eardo, which operated farther from the coast. The hull-fouling macroinvertebrates that exceeded 1% of all organisms were the barnacles Amphibalanus amphitrite, Balanus trigonus, and Amphibalanus improvisus; the polychaete Hydroides ezoensis; the bivalves Magallana gigas and Mytilus galloprovincialis; and the amphipod Jassa slatteryi. The dominant species were cosmopolitan and globally distributed, and many of them were cryptogenic. Six native species were identified: M. gigas, H. ezoensis, the amphipod Melita koreana, the isopod Cirolana ko-reana, and the barnacle B. trigonus and F. kondakovi. Eight non-indigenous species (NIS) were de-tected: barnacles A. amphitrite and A. improvisus, the bivalve M. galloprovincialis, the polychaete Perinereis nuntia, amphipods J. slatteryi and Caprella californica, and bryozoans Bugulina californica and Bugula neritina. Of the fouling macroinvertebrates found on the vessel hulls, 13% were native and 17% were NIS. The nMDS ordination analysis of the five vessels showed four clusters of fouling macroinvertebrate communities: two ocean clusters (the Isabu and Onnuri), one coastal cluster (the Eardo and Jangmok 2), and one local cluster (the Jangmok 1). More diverse communities developed on the hulls of vessels that operated locally rather than globally or in deep oceans. Spearman rank correlation showed that biological indices such as number of species, density, and biomass correlated highly and positively with the numbers of days on coastal operations and negatively with the number days on ocean operations. The species diversity index correlated positively with the total number of anchoring days and coastal operation days and negatively with the total number of operation days and ocean operation days. The macroinvertebrates differed by the area of operation, the port of anchorage, the number of days in operation and at anchor, and the hull sectors. There is no previous research data on hull-fouling macroinvertebrates in the Republic of Korea, and this study provides a basis for future studies to identify introduced species and their differences based on operation area.

Recycling waste products is an environmental-friendly activity that can bring benefits to accompany, saving manufacturing costs and improving economic efficiency. For the beer industry, recycling bottles can reduce manufacturing costs and reduce the industry's carbon footprint. This paper presents a model for a multi-objective collection-distribution center location and allocation problem in a closed loop supply chain for the beer industry, in which the objective is to minimize total costs and transportation pollution. Uncertainties in the form of randomness and fuzziness are jointly handled in this paper to ensure a more practical problem solution, for which returned bottle sand unusable bottles are considered fuzzy random variables. A heuristic algorithm based on priority-based global-local-neighbor particle swarm optimization (pb-glnPSO) is applied to ensure reliable solutions for this NP-hard problem. A case study on a beer operation company is conducted to illustrate the application of the proposed model and demonstrate the priority-based global-local-neighbor particle swarm optimization.

This article explores the enduring mysteries of consciousness and the afterlife, two enigmatic topics that have fascinated humanity for ages. Despite extensive scientific efforts, the existence of an afterlife remains unproven, and understanding consciousness remains a significant challenge. The research introduces innovative hypotheses through simple thought experiments with empirical evidence and robust theoretical foundations. It delves into the complexities of consciousness, its relationship with the brain, and the need for interdisciplinary approaches encompassing physics, psychology, and philosophy. Boldly contemplating the probability of a continuous consciousness after death, the study argues that existing evidence strongly supports this idea. Beyond theoretical implications, it envisions practical outcomes, suggesting that insights into these mysteries could enhance human well-being and contribute to a more harmonious world. In summary, this article embarks on a quest to shed light on age-old questions about consciousness and the afterlife. Through fresh methodologies, it aims to provide new perspectives that could reshape our understanding of existence and inspire intellectuals to positive individual and societal advancements including psychological well-being and intelligence.

In public health literature the risk of death or disease associated with a dietary, environmental of behavioral factor is most commonly denoted by odds ratio (OR), hazard ratio (HR) or risk ratio (RR). The ratio indices have several desirable statistical properties. However, the most important question is whether there are some evolved innate norms of perception of risk that people use and what they are. We conducted a simple one question survey of 98 individuals with different age, sex, educational and professional backgrounds. The respondents were asked to judge the relative perceived risk of four different hypothetical habits for which data on the percentage of people affected by the disease with and without the habit was given. They were asked to rank the risks for the four habits. Results showed that the habits that had the highest difference between probability of acquiring the disease were ranked high on risk perception. The probability ratios did not affect risk perception significantly. Further age, sex, profession or formal training in statistics did not affect the response significantly. Even individuals that were formally trained to use OR and HR as risk indicators, preferred using probability differences over ratios for judging their own risk in the perceived context. This preliminary inquiry into intuitive statistical perception suggests that designing statistical indices based on people’s innate perception may be a better strategy than trying to train people to understand the indices designed by expert statisticians.

Identifying the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been a unique challenge for the scientific community. In this paper, we discuss a practical solution to help guide clinicians with interpretation of the probability that a positive, or negative, COVID-19 test result indicates an infected person, based on their clinical estimate of pre-test probability of infection.The authors conducted a small survey on LinkedIn to confirm that hypothesis that that the clinical pre-test probability of COVID-19 increases relative to local prevalence of disease plus patient age, known contact, and severity of symptoms. We examined results of PPA (Positive Percent Agreement, sensitivity) and NPA (Negative Percent Agreement, specificity) from 73 individual laboratory experiments for molecular tests for SARS-CoV-2 as reported to the FIND database ¹, and for selected methods in FDA EUA submissions^2,3. Authors calculated likelihood ratios to convert pre-test to post-test probability of disease and designed an online calculator to create graphics and text to report results. Despite best efforts, false positive and false negative Covid-19 test results are unavoidable^4,5. A positive or negative test result from one laboratory has a different probability for the presence of disease than the same result from another laboratory. Likelihood ratios and confidence intervals can convert the physician or other healthcare professional’s clinical estimate of pre-test probability to post-test probability of disease. Ranges of probabilities differ depending on proven method PPA and NPA in each laboratory. We recommend that laboratories verify PPA and NPA and utilize a the “Clinician’s Probability Calculator” to verify acceptable test performance and create reports to help guide clinicians with estimation of post-test probability of COVID-19.

Xinjiang, as a climate-sensitive region in northwest China, holds significant importance in studying extreme weather events for agricultural production and socioeconomic development. Based on data from 52 meteorological stations and 23 extreme climate indicators in Xinjiang from 1960 to 2021, the 5a moving average, linear trend estimation, climate tendency rate, and GIS spatial analysis methods are used to analyze the distribution and change characteristics of extreme climate. The results revealed that from 1960 to 2021, TXx, TNx, TXn, TNn, FD, ID, TN10p, TX10p, and WSDI showed a significant upward trend, while SU, TR, TN90p, TX90p, and CSDI showed a significant downward trend. What is more, the range of changes in the extreme temperature indexes from 1990 to 2021 is higher than that of 1960 to 1989. The high-value areas of extreme indexes are primarily concentrated in the northern part, while the high-value areas of cold event indexes are mainly distributed in the southern part. The upward/downward trends all accounting for over 80.00% of the entire region. The Rx1day, Rx5day, PRCPTOT, R95p, R99p, R10, R20, and R25 showed a significant growth trend from 1960 to 2021, and the range of change in the extreme precipitation indexes from 1990 to 2021 was lower than that from 1960 to 1989. Moreover, their high-value areas and high climate tendency areas are mainly concentrated in the northern and western parts of Xinjiang, with upward trends all accounting for over 71.00% of the entire region. The research results provide theoretical foundations for formulating climate risk strategies in the northwest region of China.

Contemporary financial systems, despite their inherent complexity and resilience, face significant challenges related to transparency, efficiency, and security. Notable deficiencies in transparency and emerging security vulnerabilities underscore the pressing need for innovative solutions in current financial practices. Hence, this paper introduces a financial distribution system based on a consortium blockchain. Given organizations’ preference for keeping sensitive data private, the partially decentralized nature of consortium blockchains plays a pivotal role in the proposed system’s architecture. Moreover, within this system, the proposed smart contract serves a dual role. It functions not only as a transactional tool but also as a specialized solution designed to improve transactional procedures. Its multifaceted capabilities include ensuring data accuracy, facilitating swift execution, and ensuring adherence to regulatory requirements within the dynamic financial distribution landscape. Through rigorous testing and empirical analysis utilizing the Hyperledger Besu platform, it has been observed that the performance of the proposed system surpasses traditional blockchain frameworks. The results unequivocally demonstrate the proposed system’s proficiency in handling high-frequency financial transactions with minimal computational burden.

The quiet-time solar wind electrons feature non-thermal characteristics when viewed from the perspective of their velocity distribution functions. They typically have an appearance of being composed of a denser thermal “core” population plus a tenuous energetic “halo” population. At first, such a feature was empirically fitted with the Kappa velocity space distribution function, but ever since the ground-breaking work by Tsallis, the space physics community has embraced the potential implication of the Kappa distribution as reflecting the non-extensive nature of the space plasma. From the viewpoint of microscopic plasma theory, the formation of non-thermal electron velocity distribution function can be interpreted in terms of the plasma being in a state of turbulent quasi equilibrium. Such a finding brings forth the possible existence of a profound inter-relationship between the non-extensive statistical state and the turbulent quasi-equilibrium state. The present paper further develops the idea of solar wind electrons being in the turbulent equilibrium, but unlike the previous model, which involves the electrostatic turbulence near the plasma oscillation frequency (i.e., Langmuir turbulence), the present paper considers the impact of transverse electromagnetic turbulence, particularly, the turbulence in the whistler-mode frequency range. It is found that the coupling of spontaneously-emitted thermal fluctuations and the background turbulence leads to the formation of non-thermal electron velocity distribution function of the type observed in the solar wind during quiet times. This demonstrates that the whistler-range turbulence represents an alternative mechanism for producing the Kappa-like non-thermal distribution, especially close to the Sun and in the near-Earth space environment.

One of creators of quantum mechanics P. Jordan in his work on quantum biology claimed that life's missing laws were the rules of chance and probability of the quantum world. The article presents author’s results of studying frequencies (or probabilities) of nucleotides on so-called epi-chains of long DNA sequences of various eukaryotic and prokaryotic genomes. DNA epi-chains are algorithmically constructed subsequencies of DNA nucleotide sequences. According to the algorithm of construction of any epi-chain of the order n, the epi-chain is such nucleotide subsequence, in which the numerations of adjacent nucleotides differ by natural number n (n = 1, 2, 3, 4,…). Correspondingly each epi-chain of order n ≥ 2 contains n times less nucleotides than the original DNA sequence. The presented results unexpectedly discover that in long single-stranded and double-stranded DNA of any tested genome its DNA epi-chains of different orders n (values n are not too large) have practically identical frequencies (or probabilities) of each kind of nucleotides. These data allow considering DNA as a regular rich set of epi-chains, which can play a certain role in genetic and epigenetic phenomena as the author belives. Appropriate rules of nucleotide frequencies on epi-chains of long DNA sequences are formulated for further their tests on a wider set of genomes. These results testify on existence of long-range coherence in long DNA and remind the Fröhlich's theory of long-range coherence in biological systems. The phenomenological data are discussed from different standpoints: the DNA double helices and helical antennas with circular polarizations of electromagnetic waves; relations with the Fröhlich's theory; numerical analysis of DNA epi-chains under binary representations of nucleotides. Results are useful for developing quantum and algebraic biology.

We give two examples of the appearance of heavy-tailed distributions in applications to social sciences. Among these distributions are the laws of Pareto, Lotka, and some new ones. The examples are illustrated by constructing suitable toy models.

This article presents six probability distributions from the Gamma family with three parameters, for the flood frequency analysis in hydrology. The choice of the Gamma family of statistical dis-tributions was driven by its frequent use in hydrology. In the Faculty of Hydrotechnics, the im-provement of the estimation of maximum flows and including the methodological bases for the realization of a regionalization study with the linear moments method with the corrected pa-rameters was researched, being an element of novelty. The linear moments method is better than MOM because it avoids the choice of skewness depending on the origin of the flows, practiced in Romania. The L-moments method conforms to the current trend for estimating the parameters of statistical distributions. Observed data from hydrometric stations are of relatively short length, so the statistical parameters that characterize them are of a sample that requires correction. The correction of the statistical parameters is proposed, using the method of least squares based on the inverse functions of the statistical distributions expressed with the frequency factor for L-moments. All the necessary elements for their use are presented like, quantile functions, the exact and ap-proximate relations for estimating parameters and frequency factors. A flood frequency analysis case study was carried out for the Ialomita river, to verify the proposed methodology. The per-formance of this distributions is evaluated using Kiling-Gupta and Nash-Sutcliff coefficients.

Estimating the parameters of statistical distributions generally involves solving a system of nonlinear equations or a nonlinear equation, being a technical difficulty in their usual application in hydrology. This article presents improved approximations and, in some cases, new approximations for the estimation with the method of ordinary moments and the method of linear moments, which are useful for the direct calculation of the parameters, because the errors in the approximate estimation are similar to the use of iterative numerical methods. Thirteen statistical distributions of two and three parameters frequently used in hydrology are presented, for which parameter estimation was laborious. Thus, the approximate estimation of the parameters by the two methods is simple but also precise and easily applicable by hydrology researchers. The approximate forms characterized by very small errors are the result of the research conducted within the Faculty of Hydrotechnics to update the romanian normative standards in the hydrotechnical field.

Probability is an open question in the ontological interpretation of quantum mechanics. It has been discussed in some trajectory interpretations such as Bohmian mechanics and stochastic mechanics. New questions arise when the domain of probability extends to the complex space, including the generation of complex trajectories, the definition of the complex probability, the relation of the complex probability to the real quantum probability, and so on. The complex treatment proposed here applies the optimal quantum guidance law to derive the stochastic differential (SD) equation governing the particle’s random motions in the complex plane. The ensemble of the complex quantum random trajectories (CQRTs) solved from the complex SD equation is used to construct the probability distribution ρc(t,x,y) of the particle’s position over the complex plane z=x+iy. The correctness of the obtained complex probability is confirmed by the solution of the complex Fokker-Planck equation. The significant contribution of the complex probability is that it can be used to reconstruct both quantum probability and classical probability, and to clarify their relationship. Although quantum probability and classical probability are both defined on the real axis, they are obtained by projecting complex probability onto the real axis in different ways. This difference explains why the quantum probability cannot exactly converge to the classical probability when the quantum number is large.

To generate a probability density function (PDF) for fitting probability distributions of real data, this study proposes a deep learning method which consists of two stages: (1) a training stage for estimating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) and (2) a performing stage for predicting the corresponding PDF. The CDFs of common probability distributions can be adopted as activation functions in the hidden layers of the proposed deep learning model for learning actual cumulative probabilities, and the differential equation of trained deep learning model can be used to estimate the PDF. To evaluate the proposed method, numerical experiments with single and mixed distributions are performed. The experimental results show that the values of both CDF and PDF can be precisely estimated by the proposed method.

Open source software such as OpenDSS has given a lot of help to distribution network researchers and educators. With high penetration of distributed renewable energy resources into distribution network, tradition distribution steady state analysis software such as OpenDSS is faced with difficulty in handling distributed generators. Three-phase distributed generators are often modeled in sequence frame while unbalanced distribution network are usually modeled in phase frame. So a load flow in sequence-phase coupled frame is proposed to handle models described in both frames. Voltage controlled DGs which are difficult to cope with in OpenDSS are handled in proposed program. The steady state analysis platform is programmed with open source Modelica language and the main aim of this paper is to introduce an open source platform for active distribution network steady analysis include load flow and short circuit analysis which can be easily adopted and improved by other educators and researchers.

Research for a theory of quantum gravity has recently led to the use of presheaf topos. Quantum uncertainty is linked to the truth values of intuitionistic logic. This paper proposes transposing this model into a classic probability context, that of conditional mathematical expectations. A simulation of Brownian motion is offered for illustrative purposes.

In this paper, we work with a diffusion-perturbed risk model comprising a surplus generating process and an investment return process. The investment return process is of standard Black-Scholes type, that is, it comprises a single risk-free asset that earns interest at a constant rate and a single risky asset whose price process is modelled by a geometric Brownian motion. Additionally, the company is allowed to purchase noncheap proportional reinsurance priced via the expected value principle. Using the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman approach, we derive a second-order Volterra integrodifferential equation which we transform into a linear Volterra integral equation of the second kind. We proceed to solve this integral equation numerically using the block-by-block method for the optimal reinsurance retention level that minimizes the ultimate ruin probability. The numerical results based on light- and heavy-tailed distributions show that proportional reinsurance and investments play a vital role in enhancing the survival of insurance companies. But the ruin probability exhibits sensitivity to the volatility of the stock price.

Forest ecosystems make a greater contribution to carbon (C) stocks than any other terrestrial ecosystem. To understand the role of regional forest ecosystems in global climate change and carbon exchange, forest C stock and its spatial distribution within the small (2,300 km2) Liuxihe River basin were analyzed to determine the different contributors to the C stock. Forest C stocks were quantified by measuring the biomass of trees, understory vegetation, litter and roots, as well as soil organic C, using data from field samples and laboratory experiments. The results showed that forests stored 38.04 Tg C in the entire basin, with secondary and planted forests accounting for 89.82% and 10.18%, respectively, of the stored C. Five types of forests, a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest, a subtropical coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest, a subtropical coniferous forest, a timber forest, and a non-wood forest, stored 257.55 ± 15.01, 218.92 ± 9.59, 195.24 ± 18.29, 177.42 ± 17.55, and 117.86 ± 6.04 Mg C ha−1, respectively. In the forest ecosystem C stocks of the basin, soils averagely contribute about 73.78%, not including root underground biomass. It provides a comprehensive method for forest ecosystem carbon investigation and forest management in small basin scale.

Considering that a fair coin has two sides and a cylindrical edge, the probability that it would fall on its edge is calculated, yielding the probability of heads or tails less than 50%. Theoretical models for a static case and for five dynamic cases, without and with rebounds, show that there is a small probability that the coin does not fall on its head or tail, depending on initial toss conditions, the coin geometry and conditions of the coin and landing surfaces. For the dynamic model with rebounds, it is found that the probability that a 50 Eurocent coin thrown from a normal height with common initial velocity conditions and appropriate surface conditions will end up on its edge is in the order of one against several thousand.

This paper aims to describe the geometrical structure and explicit expressions of family of finitely parametrized probability densities over smooth manifold $M$. The geometry of family of probability densities on $M$ are inherited from probability densities on Euclidean spaces $\left\{U_\alpha \right\}$ via bundle morphisms, induced by an orientation-preserving diffeomorphisms $\rho_\alpha:U_\alpha \rightarrow M$. Current literature inherits densities on $M$ from tangent spaces via Riemannian exponential map $\exp: T_x M \rightarrow M$; densities on $M$ are defined locally on region where the exponential map is a diffeomorphism. We generalize this approach with an arbitrary orientation-preserving bundle morphism; we show that the dualistic geometry of family of densities on $U_\alpha$ can be inherited to family of densities on $M$. Furthermore, we provide explicit expressions for parametrized probability densities on $\rho_\alpha(U_\alpha) \subset M$. Finally, using the component densities on $\rho_\alpha(U_\alpha)$, we construct parametrized mixture densities on totally bounded subsets of $M$. We provide a description of inherited mixture product dualistic geometry of the family of mixture densities.

We show the tensor properties of joint probabilities on a Riemannian parametric manifold. Initially we develop a binary data matrix for parameter measurements of a large number of particles confining in a closed system in order to retrieve the joint probability densities of related parameters. By introducing a new generalized inner product as a multilinear operation on dual basis of parametric space, we extract the set of joint probabilities and prove them to meet contravariant tensor properties in a general Riemannian parametric space. We show these contravariant tensors reduce to classical ordinary partial derivatives definition in ordinary Euclidean parametric space. Finally we prove by a theorem that symmetrized iterative contravariant derivative of cumulative probability function on Riemannian manifold gives the set of joint probabilities in those manifold. We bring some examples for compatibility with physical tensors.

We start with the discussion on misapplication of classical probability theory by Feynman in his analysis of the two slit experiment (by following the critical argumentation of Koopman, Ballentine, and the author of this paper). The seed of Feynman's conclusion on the impossibility to apply the classical probabilistic description for the two slit experiment is treatment of conditional probabilities corresponding to different experimental contexts as unconditional ones. Then we move to the Bell type inequalities. Bell applied classical probability theory in the same manner as Feynman and, as can be expected, he also obtained the impossibility statement. In contrast to Feynman, he formulated his no-go statement not in the probabilistic terms, but by appealing to nonlocality. This note can be considered as a part of the author's attempts for getting rid off nonlocality from quantum physics.

In this work, we derive the spectral efficiency, secrecy outage probability, and bit error rate of a communication system assisted by a large intelligent surface (LIS). We consider a single-antenna user and an array of antennas at the transmitter side and the possibility of a direct link between transmitter and receiver. Additionally, there is a single-antenna eavesdropper with a direct link to the transmitter, which is modeled as a Nakagami-m distributed fading coefficient. The channels from transmitter to the LIS and from the LIS to the user may or may not have the line-of-sight (LoS) and are modeled by the Nakagami- m distribution. Moreover, we assume that the LIS elements perform non-ideal phase cancellation leading to a residual phase error that assumes a Von Mises distribution. We show that the resulting channel can be accurately approximated by a Gamma distribution whose parameters are analytically estimated using the moments of the equivalent signal-to-noise ratio. We also provide an upper bound for the error probability for M-QAM modulations. With the derived formulas, we analyze the effect of the strength of the LoS link by varying the Nakagami parameter, m.

Packaged water consumption has grown rapidly in urban areas of many low and middle income countries, but particularly in Ghana. However, the sources of water used by this growing packaged water industry and its implications for water resource management and transport-related environmental impacts have not been described. This study aimed to assess the spatial distribution of regulated packaged water production in Ghana, both in relation to demand and for natural mineral water, to hydrogeological characteristics. 764 addresses for premises licenced to produce packaged water from 2009-2015 were mapped and compared to regional sachet water consumption and beverage import/export data examined. We find evidence to suggest packaged water is transported shorter distances in Ghana than in developed countries. For natural mineral waters, producers should be able to address the most widespread water quality hazards (including high salinity, iron and nitrates) in aquifers used for production through reverse osmosis treatment. The study suggests there is scope to integrate beverage product and groundwater regulatory databases to support groundwater management.

This paper presents the tensor properties of joint probability densities on a Riemannian manifold. Initially we develop a binary data matrix to record variables' values of a large number of particles confining in a closed system at a certain time in order to retrieve the joint probability densities of related variables. By introducing the particle oriented coordinate and generalized inner product as a multi-linear operation on the basis of this coordinate, we extract the set of joint probabilities and prove them to meet covariant tensor properties on a general Riemannian space of variables. Based on the Taylor expansion of scalar field in Riemannian manifolds, it has been shown that the symmetrized iterative covariant derivatives of cumulative probability function defined on Riemannian manifold also gives the set of related joint probability densities equivalent to the aforementioned multi-linear method. We show these covariant tensors reduce to classical ordinary partial derivatives in ordinary Euclidean space with Cartesian coordinates and gives the formal definition of joint probabilities by partial derivatives of cumulative distribution function. The equivalence between symmetrized covariant derivative and generalized inner product has been concluded. Some examples of well-known physical tensors clarify that many deterministic physical variables are presented as tensor densities with an interpretation similar to probability densities.

The evolution of even and odd Schrödinger cat states of the inverted oscillator is obtained in the center-of-mass tomographic probability description of the two-mode oscillator.The notion of entangled probability distribution is reviewed. Evolution equations describing the time-dependence of probability distributions identified with quantum system states are discussed.The connection with the Schrödinger equation and the von Neumann equation is clarified.

This article analyzes 6 probability distributions from the Generalized Pareto family, with 3, 4 and 5 parameters, with main purpose to identify other distributions from this family with applicability in flood frequency analysis compared to the distribution already used in the literature from this family such as Generalized Pareto Type II and Wakeby. This analysis is part of a larger and more complex research carried out in the Faculty of Hydrotechnics regarding the elaboration of a norm for flood frequency analysis using the linear moments method. In Romania, the standard method of parameter estimation is the method of ordinary moments, thus the transition from this method to the method of linear moments is desired. All the necessary elements for the distributions use are presented like, the probability density functions, the complementary cumulative distribution functions, the quantile functions, the exact and approximate relations for estimating parameters, for both methods of parameters estimation. All these elements are necessary for a proper transition between the two methods, especially since the use of the method of ordinary moments is done by choosing the skewness of the observed data depending on the origin of the maximum flows. A flood frequency analysis case study, using annual maximum and annual exceedance series, was carried out for the Prigor river, to numerically present the analyzed distributions. The performance of this distributions is evaluated using relative mean error, relative absolute error and linear moments diagram.

Most existing flexible count regression models allow only approximate inference. This work proposes a new framework to provide an exact and flexible alternative for modeling and simulating count data with various types of dispersion (equi-, under- and overdispersion). The new method, referred as “balanced discretization”, consists in discretizing continuous probability distributions while preserving expectations. It is easy to generate pseudo random variates from the resulting balanced discrete distribution since it has a simple stochastic representation in terms of the continuous distribution. For illustrative purposes, we have developed the family of balanced discrete gamma distributions which can model equi-, under- and overdispersed count data. This family of count distributions is appropriate for building flexible count regressionmodels because the expectation of the distribution has a simple expression in terms of the parameters of the distribution. Using the Jensen–Shannon divergence measure, we have shown that under equidispersion restriction, the family of balanced discrete gamma distributions is similar to the Poisson distribution. Based on this, we conjecture that while covering all types of dispersion, a count regression model based on the balanced discrete gamma distribution will allow recovering a near Poisson distribution model fit when the data is Poisson distributed.

In this article we explore the limiting behavior of the universal prior distribution obtained when applied over multiple meta-level hierarchy of programs and output data of a computational automata model. We were motivated to alleviate the effect of Solomonoff's assumption that all computable functions or hypotheses of the same length are equally likely, by weighing each program in turn by the algorithmic probability of their description number encoding. In the limiting case, the set of all possible program strings of a fixed-length converges to a distribution of self-replicating quines and quine-relays - having the structure of a constructor. We discuss how experimental algorithmic information theory provides insights towards understanding the fundamental metrics proposed in this work and reflect on the significance of these result in digital physics and the constructor theory of life.

Neuronal timing is critical for many brain functions such as perception and learning. At the level of the chemical synapse, the synaptic delay is determined by the presynaptic release probability (Pr) and the waveform of the presynaptic action potential (AP). Depolarization-induced analogue-digital facilitation (d-ADF) is a form of context-dependent synaptic facilitation that is induced by constant depolarization of the presynaptic neuron and is mediated by voltage inactivation of presynaptic Kv1 channels. Whether synaptic delay is modulated during d-ADF remains unclear. We show here that despite Pr is elevated during d-ADF at L5-L5 synapses, the synaptic delay is surprisingly unchanged, suggesting that both Pr- and AP-dependent changes in synaptic delay compensate for each other. We conclude that in contrast with other short- or long-term modulation of presynaptic release, timing is not affected during d-ADF because of the opposite interaction of Pr- and AP-dependent modulations of synaptic delay.

Understanding swash zone dynamics is of crucial importance for coastal management as the swash motion, consisting of the uprush of the wave on the beach face and the subsequent downrush, is responsible for driving changes the beach morphology trough sediment exchanges between the sub-aerial and sub-aqueous beach. Improved understanding of the probabilistic characteristics of these motions has the potential to allow coastal engineers to develop improved sediment transport models which, in turn, can be further developed into coastal management tools. In this paper, novel descriptors of swash motions are obtained by combining field data and statistical modelling. Our results indicate that the probability distribution function (PDF) of shoreline height (p(ζ)) and trough-to-peak swash heights (p(ρ)) measured at a high energy, sandy beach were both inherently multimodal. Based on the observed multimodality of these PDFs, Gaussian Mixtures are shown to be the best method to statistically model them. Further, our results show that both offshore and surf zone dynamics are responsible for driving swash zone dynamics, which indicates unsaturated swash. The novel methods and results developed in this paper, both data collection and analysis, could aid coastal managers to develop improved swash zone models in the future.

With the widespread use of new equipment such as distributed photovoltaics, distributed energy storage, electric vehicles, and distributed wind power, the control of low-voltage distribution networks (LVDNs) has become increasingly complex. Acquiring the most recent topological structure is essential for conducting accurate analysis and real-time control of LVDNs. The signal-injection-based topology identification algorithm is favored for its speed and efficiency. This study proposes a new signal-injection-based topology identification algorithm aimed at solving the issues of reduced completeness and correctness of identification caused by missing feature signal records (FSRs). By analyzing the correlations between FSRs of different positions, the algorithm employs vertical and horizontal completion methods to effectively address missing data, combined with inclusion detection algorithms, to identify the topology of LVDNs. Based on the study of actual LVDN data, the results indicate that the algorithm not only significantly improves the completeness and correctness of topology identification for LVDNs but can also increase the number of devices in operation by evaluating the status of topological equipment, further enhancing the topology identification performance.

Using a simple model for internal heat evolution and mass-internal heat relations found for rocky exo planetary objects in the inner solar system we have inferred the phases of volcanism at earth ( EA) or host star ages (SA) in 52 potentially habitable rocky exo planets. We have also calculated the internal tidal heat contributions and magnetic moments of these exo planets. Based on these results we have inferred the probability of existence of life favouring geophysical conditions in the above exo planets at EA and SA. In M star associated exo planets, occurrences of super flares and long night periods may pose problems for the development of advanced life

Despite the availability of COVID-19 vaccines, the global pandemic remains a significant health challenge. Timely detection of the virus is crucial for effective containment efforts, prompting the exploration of machine learning (ML) models for COVID-19 detection. highlights the ongoing significance of COVID-19 as a global health crisis despite the availability of vaccines. To address the need for timely virus detection, the study explores the efficacy of machine learning (ML) models, including DNN, Voting, Bagging, SVC_rbf, SVC_linear, SVC_polynomial, and SVC_sigmoid, in predicting COVID-19 infection probability. With a dataset comprising 4000 samples split into 3200 for training and 800 for testing, the analysis reveals that DNN and Voting models demonstrate the highest performance, achieving an impressive accuracy of 89%. These results underscore the potential of ML techniques, particularly DNN and ensemble methods like Voting, in facilitating early COVID-19 detection and contributing to effective pandemic management. The study emphasizes the importance of continued research to further refine and optimize ML-based COVID-19 detection systems.

This study investigates the impact of temperature-induced quantum proton tunneling probability on DNA amplification during polymerase chain reactions (PCR). Using a simulation model based on a Gaussian wavefunction and finite-difference time-domain method, quantum tunneling of protons across square potential barriers is examined. The results unveil consistent probability distributions for quantum tunneling across various PCR temperatures, with distinct oscillation patterns emerging post-barrier crossing. Acknowledging limitations in initial conditions due to temperature-dependent proton energy, the study highlights the need for refined models and experimental validation. These findings accentuate the potential interplay between quantum mechanics and biological systems, prompting further research to understand quantum tunnelling’s comprehensive effect on genetic variations and molecular processes.

The interaction between oceanographic, meteorological, and hydrological factors can result in an extreme flooding scenario in the low-lying coastal area, called compound flooding (CF) events. For instance, rainfall and storm surge (or high river discharge) can be driven by the same meteorological, tropical or extra-tropical cyclones, resulting in a CF phenomenon. The trivariate distributional framework can significantly explain compound events' statistical behaviour reducing the associated high-impact flood risk. Resolving heterogenous dependency of the multidimensional CF events by incorporating traditional 3-D symmetric or fully nested Archimedean copula is quite complex. The main challenge is to preserve all lower-level dependencies. An approach based on decomposing the full multivariate density into simple local building blocks via conditional independence called vine or pair-copulas is a much more comprehensive way of approximating the trivariate flood dependence structure. In this study, a parametric vine copula of a drawable (D-vine) structure is introduced in the trivariate modelling of flooding events with 46 years of observations of the west Coast of Canada. This trivariate framework searches dependency by combining the joint impact of annual maximum 24-hr rainfall and the highest storm surge and river discharge observed within the time ±1 day of the highest rainfall event. The D-vine structures are constructed in three alternative ways by permutation of the conditioning variables. The most appropriate D-vine structure is selected using the fitness test statistics and estimating trivariate joint and conditional joint return periods. The investigation confirms that the D-vine copula can effectively define the compound phenomenon's dependency. The failure probability (FP) method is also adopted in assessing the trivariate hydrologic risk. It is observed that hydrologic events defined in the trivariate case produce higher FP than in the bivariate (or univariate) case. It is also concluded that hydrologic risk increases (i) with an increase in the service design life of the hydraulic facilities and (ii) with a decrease in return periods.

Both macro and microprojectiles (e.g., interplanetary, interstellar and even intergalactic material) are seen as important vehicles for the exchange of potential (bio)material within our solar system as well as between stellar systems in our Galaxy. Accordingly, this requires estimates of the impact probabilities for different source populations of projectiles, including for intergalactic meteor particles which have received relatively little attention since considered as rare events (discrete occurrences that are statistically improbable due to their very infrequent appearance). We employ the simple but comprehensive model of intergalactic microprojectile capture by the gravity of exoplanets which enables us to estimate the map of collisional probabilities for an available sample of exoplanets in habitable zones around host stars. The model includes a dynamical description of the capture adopted from Mautner model of interstellar exchange of microparticles and changed for our purposes. We use statistical and information metrics to calculate probability map of intergalactic meteorite particle capture. Moreover, by calculating the entropy index map we estimate the concentration of these rare events. We further adopted a model from immigration theory, to show that the time dependent distribution of single molecule immigration of material indicates high survivability of the immigrated material taking into account birth and death processes on our planet. At present immigration of material can not be observationally constrained but it seems reasonable to think that it will be possible in the near future, and to use it along other proposed parameters for life sustainability on some planet.

This paper introduces an approach that chooses the fault detection by calculating probabilities using probability mass function (pmf) and cumulative distribution function (CDF). This work used a method for multiple stuck-at faults by producing a new test pattern in combinational circuits. We assumed that existence of all multiple faults is only because of one single component that is faulty. A complete test set can be created by all possible single stuck-at faults in a combinational circuit using some combination of gates. The test set generation fault detection method is applied on two different 3-bit input variable and 4-bit input variable circuits. The probability of error occurrence is calculated at both 3-bit and 4-bit input variable circuits. The resulting feature is used to obtain maximum error occurrence probability to detect faults by the logic used that the complexity of the circuit is inversely proportional to the fault occurrence probability. Then again, undetectability is directly proportional to the complexity of the circuit. Therefore, finest feasible circuit should have large input variable components with less complexity to reduce the fault occurrence probability.

Cartels cause tremendous damage to the market economy and disadvantage consumers by causing higher prices and lower quality; moreover, they are difficult to detect. We need to prevent them by scientific analysis, which includes the determination of an indicator to explain antitrust enforcement. Particularly, the probability of cartel penalization is a useful indicator for the evaluation of the competition enforcement. This study is to estimate the probability of cartel penalization by using a Bayesian approach. In the empirical study, the probability of cartel penalization is estimated by Bayesian approach from cartel data of Department of Justice in United States from 1970 to 2009. The probability of cartel penalization is seen to be sensitive to change of competition law and the results shows the usefulness of higher interpretation than other research. The result of the policy simulation shows how effective the leniency program is. From this estimation, antitrust enforcement is evaluated, and thereby, can be improved.

The main purpose of this paper is to introduce and investigate degenerate Poisson distrib- ution which is a new extension of the Poisson distribution including the degenerate expo- nential function. We then provide several properties of the degenerate Poisson distribution such as the first and the second raw moments and di¤erence operator property. Moreover, we acquired the skewness and the kurtosis for the degenerate Poisson distribution. We also derive its moment generating function by which we define the degenerate Bell polynomials and give a connection for these polynomials related to the unsigned Stirling numbers of the …rst kind.

Atmospheric turbulence characteristics are essential in determining the quality of astronomical images and implementing adaptive optics systems. In this study, the vertical distributions of optical turbulence at the Peak Terskol observatory (43.27472 ° N 42.50083 ° E, 3127 m a.s.l.) using the Era-5 re-analysis and scintillation measurements are investigated. For the closest reanalysis grid node to the observatory, vertical profiles of the structural constant of the air refractive index turbulent fluctuations Cn2 were obtained. The calculated Cn2(z) vertical profiles are compared with the vertical distribution of turbulence intensity obtained from tomographic measurements with Shack-Hartmann sensor. The atmospheric coherence length at the location of Terskol Peak was estimated. Using combination of atmospheric models and scheme paramaterization of turbulence, Cn2(z) profiles at Mt. Kurapdag were obtained. The values of atmospheric coherence length at the Peak Terskol are compared with estimated values of this length at the ten astronomical sites including Ali, Lenghu and Daocheng.

6G is already being planned and will employ much higher frequencies, leading to a revolutionary era in communication between people as well as things. It is well known that weather, especially rain, can cause increased attenuation of signal transmission for higher frequencies. The standard methods for evaluating the effect of rain on symbol error rate are based on long-term averaging. These methods are an inaccurate, which results with an inefficient system design. This is critical regarding bandwidth scarcity and energy consumption and requires a more significant margin of effort to cope with the imprecision. Recently we have developed a new and more precise method for calculating communication system performance in case of rain, using the probability density function of rain rate. For high rain rate (above 10mm/hr), for a typical set of parameters, our method shows the symbol error rate in this range to be higher by orders of magnitude than that found by ITU standard methods. Our model also indicates that sensing and measuring the rain rate probability is important in order to provide the required bit error rate to the users. To the best knowledge of the authors, this novel analysis is unique. It can constitute a more effi-cient performance metric for the new era of 6G communication and prevent disruption due to incorrect system design. Keywords: atmospheric propagation, communication system performance, attenuation, com-munication

Currently, there is no widely accepted consensus regarding a consistent thermodynamic framework within the special relativity paradigm. However, by postulating that the inverse temperature 4-vector, denoted as β, is future-directed and timelike, intriguing insights emerge. Specifically, it is demonstrated that the q-dependent Tsallis distribution can be conceptualized as a de-Sitterian deformation of the relativistic Maxwell-Jüttner distribution. In this context, the curvature of the de Sitter space-time is characterized by Λ/3, where Λ represents the cosmological constant within the ΛCDM standard model for Cosmology. For a simple gas composed of particles with proper mass m, and within the framework of quantum statistical de Sitterian considerations, the Tsallis parameter q exhibits a dependence on the cosmological constant given by q=1+ℓcΛ/n where ℓc=ℏ/mc is the Compton length of the particle and n is a positive numerical factor. This formulation establishes a novel connection between the Tsallis distribution, quantum statistics, and the cosmological constant, shedding light on the intricate interplay between relativistic thermodynamics and fundamental cosmological parameters.

As the search for exoplanets continues, more are being discovered orbiting Red Giant stars. We use current data from the NASA Exoplanet Archive to investigate planet distribution around Red Giant stars and their presence in the host’s habitable zone. As well, we explore the distribution of planet mass and orbital semi major axis for evolved stars with increasing stellar radii. We found 9 Red Giant-hosted exoplanets, and 21 Subgiant-hosted exoplanets to be in the optimistically calculated habitable zone, 5 and 17 of which are in a more conservatively calculated habitable zone. All the planets detected within their habitable zone orbit stars that are in early stages of evolution. We believe that with more powerful instrumentation, more habitable planets may be found around stars that are in later stages of evolution.

the intermittency and variability of these permeated Distributed Generators (DGs) could critically cause many security and economy risks to distribution systems. This paper applied a certain mathematical distribution to imitate the output variability and uncertainty of DGs. And then, four risk indices EENS, PLC, EFLC and SI were established to reflect the system risk level of distribution system. For the certain mathematical distribution of the DGs' output power, a developed PEM (point estimate method)-based method was proposed to calculate these four system risk indices. In this developed PEM-based method, enumeration method was used to list the states of distribution systems, an improved PEM was presented to deal with the uncertainties of DGs and the value of load curtailment in distribution systems was calculated by an optimal power flow algorithm. Finally, the effectiveness and advantages of this proposed PEM-based method for distribution system assessment were verified by the tests of a modified IEEE 30-bus system. Simulation results have shown that this proposed PEM-based method has a high computational accuracy and highly reduced computational costs compared with other risk assessment methods and is very effective for risk assessments.

The development of forecasting models for the evaluation of potential slope instability after rainfall event represents an important issue for the scientific community. This topic has received considerable impetus due to climate change effect on the territory [1, 2] as several studies demonstrate that the increase in global warming can significantly influence the landslide activity and stability conditions of natural and artificial slopes [3]. A consolidated approach in evaluating rainfall induced landslide hazard is based on the integration of rainfall forecasts and physically based (PB) predictive models through deterministic laws. However, considering the complex nature of the processes and the high variability of the random quantities involved, probabilistic approaches are recommended in order to obtain reliable predictions. A crucial aspect of the stochastic approach is represented by the definition of appropriate probability density functions (pdfs) to model the uncertainty of the input variables as this may have an important effect on the evaluation of the probability of failure (PoF). The role of the pdf definition on reliability analysis is discussed through a comparison of PoF maps generated using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations performed over a study area located in the Umbria Region of central Italy.

This article introduces an innovative design method for public lighting systems that surpasses the limitations of conventional approaches, which rely on predefined lamp characteristics and spatial arrangement. By employing a multi-criteria decision algorithm, our study proposes an optimal design methodology considering several key aspects, including the distance between lamps, their type, power, and light distribution. The goal is to achieve optimal illumination that enhances visibility on public roads for drivers and pedestrians while simultaneously minimizing glare, installation costs and maximizing energy efficiency. The proposed methodology is implemented through an algorithm developed in Matlab, with results validated through simulations in Dialux. This information is used to construct a decision matrix, assessed using the CRITIC method across 180 different scenarios within a specific case study. The findings demonstrate the effectiveness of multi-criteria decision-making as a tool for significantly improving the planning and design of lighting in public illumination systems, allowing for selecting the optimal combination of parameters that ensure the best lighting conditions.

Bipolar disorder (BD) is a high suicide-risk mental disorder. The purpose of this study was to identify the relationship between temperament and character traits with suicide probability, suicide attempt and perceived stress level in patients with BD. A total of 39 euthymic patients with bipolar disorder who had a history of suicide attempt and 39 euthymic patients without a history of suicide attempt were included in this study. Sociodemographic and clinical data form, Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS), Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS), The Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-5-Clinician Version (SCID-5/CV), Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI), Perceived Stress Scale (PSS), Suicide Probability Scale were used for obtaining the data. HDRS, PSS and SPS scores of the group comprised of patients who attempted suicide were higher than the other group. There was no significant difference between the group of patients who had attempted suicide and the other group in terms of temperament characteristics. In the group of patients who had attempted suicide, self-directedness (SD) and cooperativeness (CO) scores were lower and self-transcendence (ST) score was higher than the other group. HA and ST were positively and SD negatively associated with SPS scores. In the regression analysis for suicide risk, the factors most associated with suicide risk were high HDRS and low CO score. Low SD in BD, high ST with CO may be associated with suicide attempt. Alongside low SD, high HA and ST may be associated with suicidal ideation. Treating residual depressive symptoms can reduce the risk of suicide.

The twisted Wang transform distribution family, defined as the composition of parameter shifted inverse CDF function with an original CDF function, is found to be most suitable for matching low shape factor distributions, characterizing hard to fit or to simulate reinsurance portfolio losses for some perils from our previous study. Among them, the best form for matching a hard-to-fit empirical loss distribution for a specific peril, is the Exponential Fractional Extra Power 0 Distribution in (0,1) with CDF:.The simplest yet still a good form of this family is the Transformed Hyperbolic Tangent Distribution with CDF:,which has analytical formulas for the moments. The twisted Wang transform distribution family is compared and confirmed to be superior to all other well-known distribution families through extensive numerical optimization practice, distribution forms guesses, and computer-aided exploration experiments.

Developments of new probability models for data analysis are keen interest of importance for all fields. The log-Dagum distribution has a prominent role in the theory and practice of statistics. In this article, a new family of continuous distributions generated from a log Dagum random variable called the log-Dagum Weibull distribution is proposed. The key properties of the proposed distribution are derived. Its density function can be symmetrical, left-skewed, right-skewed and reversed-J shaped and can have increasing, decreasing, bathtub hazard rates shaped. The model parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood and illustrate its importance by means of applications to real data sets.

As global warming intensifies, the development of offshore wind farms is swiftly progressing, especially deep-water floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) capable of energy capture in deep-sea regions, which have emerged as a focal point of both academic and industrial interest. Although numerous researchers have conducted comprehensive and multifaceted studies on various components of wind turbines, less attention has been paid to the operational stage response of FOWTs to wind, waves, and currents, and the reliability of structural components. This study primarily employs theoretical analysis to establish mathematical models under a series of reasonable assumptions, examining the possibility of collisions between FOWT transport fleets and other vessels in the passage area during the towing process. Using the model, this paper takes the Wanning Offshore Floating Wind Farm (FOWF) project, which is scheduled to be deployed in the South China Sea, as the research object and calculates the probability of collisions between FOWTs and other vessels in three time periods from the total assembly pier in Hainan Wanning to the predetermined position 22 km away. The findings of the analysis suggest that the mathematical model has the capability to efficiently determine the frequency of collisions between vessels within the domain and the transport team during the transportation process. This holds substantial relevance for future risk assessment and disaster prevention and mitigation measures in the context of FOWT transportation.

White noise is fundamentally linked to many processes, it has a flat power spectral density and a delta-correlated autocorrelation. Operators acting on white noise can result in coloured noise, whether they operate in the time domain, like fractional calculus, or in the frequency domain, like spectral processing. We investigate whether any of the white noise properties remain in the coloured noises produced by the action of an operator. For a coloured noise, which drives a physical system, we provide evidence to pinpoint the mother process from which it came. We demonstrate the existence of two indices, that is, kurtosis and codifference, whose values can categorise coloured noises according to their mother process. Four different mother processes are used in this study: Gaussian, Laplace, Cauchy, and Uniform white noise distributions. The mother process determines the kurtosis value of the coloured noises that are produced. It maintains its value for Gaussian, never converges for Cauchy, and takes values for Laplace and Uniform that are within a range of its white noise value. In addition, the codifference function maintains its value for zero lag-time essentially constant around the value of the corresponding white noise.

This work is the first in literature to tackle the difficult open problem of determining the upper bound and threshold theorem for the TDCDP (time-dependent controller parameter) of the (Fokker Planck Kolmogorov) probability density function. This revolutionary exposition will put control theory and other related inter-disciplinary fields to a higher level towards contemporary control theory. Notably, based on the influential role of control theory in both engineering and industry, this paper will be of great value to all engineering and industry professionals who seek to know more about advanced trends within control theory settings. On the other remit of the spectrum, Fokker Planck Kolmogorov(FPK) equations are of high importance to physicists as well as mathematicians, based on their multiple applicability to information theory, graph theory, data science, finance, economics, and beyond. So, this by default adds more taste and credibility to this study. This leads by nature to introducing a different flavor to this ground-breaking research by highlighting the impact of Fokker Planck Kolmogorov(FPK) to revolutionize crypocurrency,which have received its name because it uses encryption to verify transactions, a new debatable digital payment system that doesn't rely on banks to verify transactions. It’s a peer-to-peer system that can enable anyone anywhere to send and receive payments. The paper ends with closing remarks combined with some challenging open problems and the next phase of research.

With the global warming and the frequent occurrences of harsh environments, mooring line failures are frequent. Response analysis of the platform structure and its residual mooring system under multiple mooring line failures is needed. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the change law of platform motion response after mooring line failure to find out the reasons for the change. Studies for different failure combinations of mooring lines show that the variation of the steady-state equilibrium position of the platform is closely related to the stiffness, with a clear functional. The duration and amplitude of the transient response are mainly influenced by the Morison drag force. And it was found that the suspended mooring line reduced the motion responses. It is also found that the mooring line failure increased the effective tension and suspension length of the riser. Based on the improved Dezert-Smarandache theory (DSmT), it is calculated that mooring line failure has little effect on the failure probability in different zones of the riser.

GANs are well known for success in the realistic image gen-eration. However, they can be applied in tabular data generation as well.We will review and examine some recent papers about tabular GANs inaction. We will generate data to make train distribution bring closer tothe test. Then compare model performance trained on the initial traindataset, with trained on the train with GAN generated data, also wetrain the model by sampling train by adversarial training. We show thatusing GAN might be an option in case of uneven data distribution be-tween train and test data

DiFX is a software VLBI correlator currently adopted by several main correlation sites around the globe. After the launch of the RadioAstron Space-VLBI mission in 2011, an extension was necessary to handle processing of an orbiting antenna, to be correlated with supporting ground arrays. We present here a branch of the main DiFX distribution (2.4), recently uploaded on the publicly available repository, that MPIfR developed to process data of the three AGN-imaging RadioAstron key science projects. It can account for general relativistic correction of an orbiting antenna with variable position/velocity, providing a routine to covert the native RDF format to the more common M5B one. Also, a fringe-finding algorithm able to manage arbitrary large fringe-search window is included, allowing one to increase the search space normally adopted by common software packages like HOPS.

The research on the distribution of rural buildings is one of the fundamental works of urban-rural development in Vietnam. Adopting Mask R-CNN deep learning framework and collecting sub-meter remote sensing images, this research used a remote sensing interpretation model of rural buildings trained based on East Asian characteristics of rural buildings and successfully recognized about 2.87 million rural buildings in 34 Vietnamese provincial administrative districts with a total area of rural buildings of 2,492 million square meters. The reliability of the identification results was verified by manual detection and quantitative statistics, and a multi-scale database of rural buildings in Vietnam based on individual rural buildings was created. Based on the database, this paper analyzes the distribution characteristics of rural buildings and summarizes characteristics of rural buildings distribution at the country, regional, and provincial scales. The identification results lay the foundation for the next study of urban-rural relations in Southeast Asia and the construction of a basic database on villages.

Integer is either a composite number or a prime number. Therefore, detecting composite numbers is important for solving prime numbers. The study of prime numbers, apart from satisfying human curiosity, can be very important. In this article, the order of composite numbers has been detected. And explained with a simple method and a simple function. And, a method has been developed in which all composite numbers and therefore prime numbers can be determined by using the specified methods, functions and formulas.

The novel respiratory disease COVID-19 has reached the status of worldwide pandemic and large efforts are currently being undertaken in molecularly characterizing the virus causing it, SARS-CoV-2. The genomic variability of SARS-CoV-2 specimens scattered across the globe can underly geographically specific etiological effects. In the present study, we gather the 48,635 SARS-CoV-2 complete genomes currently available thanks to the collection endeavor of the GISAID consortium and thousands of contributing laboratories. We analyze and annotate all SARS-CoV-2 mutations compared with the reference Wuhan genome NC_045512.2, observing an average of 7.23 mutations per sample. Our analysis shows the prevalence of single nucleotide transitions as the major mutational type across the world. There exist at least three clades characterized by geographic and genomic specificity. In particular, the clade G, prevalent in Europe, carries a D614G mutation in the Spike protein, which is responsible for the initial interaction of the virus with the host human cell. Our analysis may drive local modulation of antiviral strategies based on the molecular specificities of this novel virus.

We proposed a so-called Beta Kumaraswamy Burr Type X distribution which gives the extension of the Kumaraswamy-G class of family distribution. Some properties of this proposed model were provided, like: the expansion of densi- ties and quantile function. We considered the Bayes and maximum likelihood methods to estimate the parameters and also simulate the model parameters to validate the methods based on dierent set of true values. Some real data sets were employed to show the usefulness and exibility of the model which serves as generalization to many sub-models in the elds of engineering, medical, survival and reliability analysis.

We proposed a so-called Beta Kumaraswamy Burr Type X distribution which gives the extension of the Kumaraswamy-G class of family distribution. Some properties of this proposed model were provided, like: the expansion of densities and quantile function. We considered the Bayes and maximum likelihood methods to estimate the parameters and also simulate the model parameters to validate the methods based on different set of true values. Some real data sets were employed to show the usefulness and flexibility of the model which serves as generalization to many sub-models in the field of engineering, medical, survival and reliability analysis.

For the polymer electrolyte fuel cell (PEFC), the separator thickness plays an important role to determine the weight, the volume and the costs of the PEFC. In addition, thermal management, i.e. temperature distribution is also important for the PEFC system to obtain higher performance. However, there were few reports investigating the relationship between the temperature distribution and the power generation performance such as current density distribution of PEFC operated at higher temperature (HT-PEFC). The aim of this study is to clarify the impact of separator thickness on the relationship between the temperature distribution and the current density distribution of HT-PEFC. This study has also investigated the impact of separator thickness on the relationship between the temperature distribution and the gases such as H2, O2 and the current density distribution of HT-PEFC numerically using CFD software COMSOL Multiphysics. The separator thicknesses of 2.0 mm, 1.5 mm and 1.0 mm were studied. In the study, the operation temperature and the relative humidity (RH) of supply gas were also changed. As a result, it was revealed that the optimum separator thickness was 2.0 mm to obtain higher power generation of HT-PEFC. Since the heat capacity in the case of the separator thickness of 2.0 mm was the largest among the separators investigated in this study, the dehydration of PEM and catalyst layer was smaller compared with the thinner separator thicknesses. It was also revealed that the impacts of separator thickness on distribution of gases, e.g. O2, H2O, and current density distribution became larger under higher temperature and lower RH conditions. This study also concluded that the tendency of temperature distribution matched those of O2, H2O and current density distributions.

Species have shown their habital variations in responding to climate change, especially during the spring and summer spawning seasons. The species distribution model (SDM) is considered the most favorable tool to study the potential effects of climate change on species distribution. Therefore, we developed the ensemble SDM to predict the changes in species distribution of Portunus trituberculatus among different seasons in 2050 and 2100 under the climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results of SDM indicate that the distribution of this species will move northward and have obviouse seasonal variations. Meanwhile, the suitable habitat for the species will be significantly reduced in summer, with loses rates ranging from 45.23% (RCP4.5) to 88.26% (RCP.8.5) by 2100s. Habitat reduction will mainly occur in the East China Sea and southern part of the Yellow Sea, while there will be a small increase in the northern Bohai Sea. These findings will be important to manage the ecosystem and fishery, provide an information forecast of this species in the future, and maintain species diversity if the seawater temperature rises.

For a long time, physicists always directly use mathematical tools to deal with physical problems, and few people pay attention to the difference between mathematical theory and physical theory. Just like the dilemma that physicists once faced when dealing with the problem of blackbody radiation function.By analyzing the difference between the theoretical basis of mathematics and the theoretical basis of physics, this paper draws the following conclusions: (1) The theoretical basis of mathematics and the theoretical basis of physics are different, so when we use mathematical tools for physics research, we need to be very careful. (2) Finiteness and discreteness should be the basis of the whole physical theory; This paper points out that it is not advisable to use infinite " " and infinitesimal "0" without restriction and demonstration in physics, as well as the continuity of functions, which will bring a lot of trouble to physical theory.At the same time, through the analysis of Banach-Tarski paradox and Bertrand paradox, this paper proposes that if we revise the basic assumptions of probability theory: assuming that "points" have quantized sizes, and "lines" also have quantized widths. After the correction, we can not only avoid the troubles caused by Bertrand paradox, but also make probability theory better for practical application.

This study aims to reveal the revolutionary Gamma Distribution Manifold (GDM) info-geometric analysis combined with potential Gamma distribution (GD) applications to advance Satellite Earth Observations (SEOs). An exposition of the GDM Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) was undertaken, together with the analytic investigation of the existence of FIM’s inverse. The derivation of GDM’s Geodesic Equations (GEs) is undertaken. The solution of the obtained Geodesic Equations is optimally complicated, and it provides more extensions to numerous open problems. Notably, the current paper provides a first-time unification between three multi-interdisciplinary fields, namely, information geometry theory, probability theory, and Satellite earth observations. Looking at the other side of the coin, the provided revolutionary approach in this current work reports the significant impact of info-geometric analysis on the probabilistic dynamics as well as the influential role of information geometry on satellite and space industry. This poses numerous open issues that initiates a new form of contemporary unification between these inter-disciplinaries to discover another visionary thinking out of traditional statistical frames. In other words, refraining ourselves from using classical statistical frames of thinking and delving into a new info-geometric vision of statistical distributions as well as examining real life applications of information geometry to advance satellite earth observations. The curtain is drawn on this paper by providing several challenging open problems in combination with a concluding remark and the next phase of research.

In this study, we propose a radiomics-clinical probability weighted model for the prediction of prognosis for NSCLC. The model combines radiomics features extracted from RT planning images with clinical factors such as age, gender, histology, and tumor stage. CT images with radiotherapy structures of 422 NSCLC patients were retrieved from The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA). Radiomic features were extracted from gross tumor volume (GTV). Five machine learning algorithms, namely decision trees (DT), random forests (RF), extreme boost (EB), support vector machine (SVM) and generalized linear model (GLM), were optimized by a voted ensemble machine learning (VEML) model. A probabilistic weighted approach is used to incorporate the uncertainty associated with both radiomic and clinical features and to generate a probabilistic risk score for each patient. The performance of the model is evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC). Radiomic model, clinical factors model and combined radiomic-clinical probability weighted model demonstrated good performance in predicting NSCLC survival with AUC of 0.941, 0.856 and 0.949 respectively. The combined radiomics-clinical probability weighted enhanced model achieved significantly better performance than radiomic model in 1-year survival prediction (chi-square test, p<0.05). The proposed model has the potential to improve NSCLC prognosis and facilitate personalized treatment decisions.

Tidal stream energy is a renewable energy resource that might be developed to offset carbon emissions. A tidal energy demonstration (TED) area has been designated in Minas Passage, Bay of Fundy, for testing and installing marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbines. Regulations require quantification of the potential for MHK turbine installations to harm local populations of marine animals. Here we use acoustic telemetry to quantify probability that post smolt Inner Bay of Fundy salmon encounter a turbine installation at the TED area. Previous work has quantified detection efficiency of Innovasea HR acoustic tags as a function of current speed and range from a moored HR2 receiver and also demonstrated that drifters carrying HR tags will be effectively detected when the drifter track crosses the array of HR2 receivers in Minas Passage. Salmon smolts were tagged and released in Gaspereau and Stewiacke Rivers, Nova Scotia, in order that the HR2 receiver array could monitor seaward migration of the post smolts through Minas Passage and particularly through the TED area. Presently we demonstrate methods by which tag signals detected by the HR2 array can be used to estimate the expected number of times that a post smolt would encounter a single near-surface MHK turbine installation during its seaward migration.

Practically important properties of real liquids, including seawater, are their nonlinear properties, which include a nonlinear acoustic parameter, as well as cavitation strength – a rupture of the continuity of a liquid at high intensities in an acoustic wave. The manifestation of nonlinear effects is greatly facilitated by the presence of various nuclei in the liquid – gas bubbles, foreign particles, and other inclusions of various origins. For practical applications, it is important to study the properties of real liquids with inclusions in them. Due to the difficulties of measuring cavitation strength by acoustic methods, other methods are being sought. It is proposed to use an optoacoustic method associated with the use of laser radiation that causes optical breakdown - optical cavitation, that accompanied by a strong sound generation effect. The connection between optical breakdown thresholds and acoustic cavitation thresholds has been established, which can later be used to identify cavitation thresholds at high static pressures (at great depths in the sea), where the use of acoustic emitters is extremely difficult. The paper studies the bubble size distribution function in seawater, combined with studies of the acoustic nonlinearity parameter and cavitation strength at various depths. The interrelation of these characteristics for seawater is shown.

In this article we introduce an extension of the Akash distribution. We use the slash 1 methodology to make the kurtosis of the Akash distribution more flexible. We study the general 2 density of this new distribution, some properties, moments, coefficients of asymmetry and kurtosis. 3 Statistical inference is performed using the methods of moments and maximum likelihood via the 4 EM algorithm. A simulation study is carried out to observe the behavior of the maximum likelihood 5 estimator. An application to a real data set with high kurtosis is considered, where it is shown that 6 the new distribution fits better than other extensions of the Akash distribution.

Besides the increase in global energy demand, access to clean energy, reduction in greenhouse gas emissions caused by conventional power generation sources, energy security, and availability of electricity in remote villages in emerging nations are some of the factors that foster the use of renewable energy sources (RESs) in generating electricity. One of the aims of initiating microgrids (MGs) is to maximize the benefits of RES and alleviate the associated grid integration issues. Microgrids are made up of RES connected to electrical loads within clearly delineated electrical limits that operate as individual controllable units on the electrical network. It can operate in-dependently as well as in connection with the grid. The paper presents an overview of microgrids and investigates the system's performance when connected to and disconnected from the grid. Furthermore, in both modes of operation, the functioning and behavior of system components such as the bidirectional DC-DC converter and energy storage system (ESS) were evaluated. The architecture of the proposed microgrid consists of a small hydropower plant, a wind farm, and a battery energy storage system (BESS). The microgrid under investigation is modeled and simu-lated using MATLAB and Simulink.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) causes both acute and chronic disease of the liver that can lead to liver cirrhosis, cancer and liver failure. HCV is characterized by high genetic diversity and substantial variations in prevalence of specific HCV genotypes in different countries of the world. Many effective regimens of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), including pan-genotypic, can successfully treat HCV infection. However, genotype-specific treatments for HCV are being actively employed in the national plans for elimination of HCV infection around the world. Evaluation of HCV genotype prevalence in a country is mandatory for successful implementation of the national plans for elimination of HCV infection and allocation of financial resources to DAAs most effecting for specific HCV genotypes prevalent in a country. Here, we analyzed HCV genotypes, subgenotypes and recombinants in 10,107 serum samples from patients with chronic HCV infection from all Federal districts of Russia collected in 2015-2017. This is the first, largest evaluation of HCV genotypes performed on samples from all territories of Russia, from its Central Federal district to the Far East. Moreover, we have updated retrospective epidemiological analysis of chronic and acute HCV infection in Russia in 2001-2021. We demonstrate that the incidence of acute HCV infection in Russia reduced from 16.7 cases per 100,000 population in 2001 to 0.6 cases per 100,000 population in 2021. The number of cases of chronic HCV infection decreased from 29.5 to 16.4 per 100,000 population during this period. HCV genotype analysis indicated that HCV genotype 1 dominates in Russia (53.6%). Genotypes 3 and 2 were detected in 35.4% and 7.8% of patients respectively. These proportions are virtually identical in all regions of Russia except for Far East, where HCV genotype 2 amounts only to 1%. HCV genotypes 1 and 2 are more widespread in women, while HCV genotype 3 in men. The highest frequency of identification of genotype 3 was found in the age group of 31-40 years old (44.9%, respectively), and genotype 1 was more prevalent in a group of over 70 years old (72.2%). The proportion of HCV genotype 2 is predominant among HCV-infected persons older than 40 years. Discriminating HCV genotype 2 and recombinant RF1_2k/1b, which are frequently misclassified, is important for successful antiviral treatment of such patients. For the first time, we demonstrate the countrywide prevalence of HCV RF1_2k/1b in different regions of Russia. HCV RF1_2k/1b amounts to 3.2% in the structure of HCV genotypes, reaching 30% among samples classified as genotype 2 by some commercial genotyping tests. The highest proportion of HCV RF1_2k/1b was detected in the north-west (60%), southern (41.6%) and central (31.6%) federal district. Its frequency in Far Eastern and North Caucasus Districts was ~ 14.3%. HCV RF1_2k/1b was not detected in the Volga, Ural and Siberian districts. To conclude, this is the first and most complete evaluation of HCV epidemiology and genotype/subgenotype distribution in Russia.

Ticks drive a wide diversity of pathogens to a great variety of hosts, including humans. We conducted a tick surveillance study in northwestern Spain between 2014 and 2019. Ticks were removed from people and were identified. Tick numbers, species, development stages, evolution over time, seasonal and geographical distribution, and epidemiological characteristics of people bitten by ticks were studied. We collected ticks from 8143 people. Nymphs of Ixodes ricinus were the most frequently collected. Rhipicephalus bursa, Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato (s.l), Hyalomma marginatum, Hyalomma lusitanicum, Dermacentor marginatus, Dermacentor reticulatus and Haemaphysalis punctata were also found, with adults as the main stage. Hyalomma spp. and R. bursa have been progressively increasing over time. Although bites occurred throughout the year, the highest number of incidents were reported from April to July. The distribution patterns of the tick species were different between the north and the south of the region, which was related to cases detected in humans of the pathogens they carried. Adult men were more likely to be bitten by ticks than women. Ticks were most frequently removed from adults from the lower limbs, while for children they were mainly attached to the head. Epidemiological surveillance is essential given the increase in tick populations in recent years, mainly of species potentially carrying pathogens causing emerging diseases in Spain, such as the Crimean Congo Hemorraghic Fever (CCFH).

The power function distribution is a flexible waiting time model that may provide better fit for some failure data. This paper presents the comparison of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates of two-parameter power function distribution. The Bayes estimates are obtained, using conjugate priors, under five loss functions consist of square error, precautionary, weighted, LINEX and DeGroot loss function. The Gibbs sampling algorithm is proposed to generate samples from posterior distributions and in result the Bayes estimates are computed. The comparison of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates are done through the root mean squared errors. One real-life data set is analyzed to illustrate the evaluation of proposed methods of estimation. Finally, results from the simulation are discussed to assess the performance behavior of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates.

A new discrete distribution for count data called extended biparametric Waring (EBW) distribution is developed. Its name is related to the fact that, in a specific configuration of its parameters, it can be seen as a biparametric version of the univariate generalized Waring (UGW) distribution, a well-known model for the variance decomposition into three components: randomness, liability and proneness. Unlike the UGW distribution, the EBW can model both overdispersed and underdispersed data sets. In fact, the EBW distribution is a particular case of a UWG distribution when its first parameter is positive; otherwise, it is a particular case of a Complex Triparametric Pearson (CTP) distribution. Hence, this new model inherits most of their properties and, moreover, it helps to solve the identification problem in the variance components of the UGW model. We compare the EBW with the UGW by a simulation study, but also with other over and underdispersed distributions through the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Additionally, we have carried out a simulation study in order to analyse the properties of the maximum likelihood parameter estimates. Finally, some application examples are included which show that the proposed model provides similar or even better results than other models, but with fewer parameters.

The Doig Phosphate Zone (DPZ) is a phosphate-bearing marine unit located at the base of the Doig Formation, in the Triassic section of the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. The DPZ has a maximum thickness of 90 m and extends across northeastern British Columbia and western central Alberta. In this study we characterize the significance and interpret the origin of apatite in the DPZ, through mineralogical and geochemical analyses, thin section study and field emission-scanning electron microscopy. The occurrence of apatite in the DPZ is not evenly distributed, but restricted to discrete 10 to 20 cm thick beds, located near the base of the DPZ. Phosphorites are of two types: grainstones composed primarily of unconformity-bounded coated grains, and intraclastic phosphorites composed of detrital silt-sized grains and apatite coated grains in a cryptocrystalline phosphatic matrix. The phosphorite beds are records of stratigraphic condensation due to low detrital input during transgression. The erosionally-truncated phosphatic coated grains and intraclasts are interpreted to be a result of various phases of phosphatization, exhumation, erosion reworking, winnowing and redeposition in alternating quiescence and storms or bottom currents. The abundance of pyrite and chalcophile trace elements, as well as the low concentration of proxy elements for organic matter productivity and preservation, are further evidences of stratigraphic condensation, with sulfidic pore water development and extensive organic recycling promoted by biological activity during the long exposure times. The phosphorites were formed under oxygenated water conditions, as suggested by the depletion in Ce and presence of a diverse benthic fauna.

Keywords: leptophages; Cas system; bacteriophages; Leptospira interrogans

Location-and-scale transformation of a random variable underpins normal distribution, but it is however fundamentally incorrect for scale estimation such as relative dispersion. In this paper, a parametrized alternative to a normal distribution, called scaloc-normal distribution, is proposed that efficiently works and is fundamentally correct with absolute and relative dispersion estimators. The Monte Carlos simulation experiment was used to generate a total of 600,000 artificial datasets in 600 different simulation scenarios from loc-normal (normal) and scaloc-normal distributions. The absolute and relative dispersion were estimated and compared from the two distributions. The results show that scaloc-normal distribution is a good parametrized alternative to loc-normal distribution, fundamentally correct and efficient with both standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The key statistical advancement from loc-normal to scaloc-normal distribution is its fundamental correctness (i.e., scale-invariant property) with an efficient relative estimator of dispersion (i.e., coefficient of variation). Parametrically, the loc-normal and scaloc-normal distributions are very different, but both have linear transformations.