The core of eLoran ground-based timing navigation system is the accurate measurement of groundwave propagation delay. However, meteorological changes will disturb the conductive characteristic factors along the groundwave propagation path, especially for complex terrestrial propagation environment, and may even lead to microsecond-level propagation delay fluctuation, seriously affecting the timing accuracy of the system. Aiming at this problem, this paper proposes a propagation delay prediction model based on Back-Propagation neural network (BPNN) for complex meteorological environment, which realizes the function of directly mapping propaga-tion delay fluctuation through meteorological factors. Firstly, the theoretical influence of meteoro-logical factors on each component of propagation delay is analyzed based on calculation parame-ters. Then, through the correlation analysis of the measured data, the complex relationship be-tween the seven main meteorological factors and the propagation delay, as well as their regional differences are demonstrated. Finally, a BPNN prediction model considering regional changes of multiple meteorological factors is proposed, and the validity of the model is verified by long-term collected data. Experimental results show that the proposed model can effectively predict the propagation delay fluctuation in the next few days, and its overall performance is significantly improved compared with the existing linear model and simple neural network model. eLoran; meteorological factor; propagation delay prediction model; Back-Propagation neural network;

The statistical analysis of impact of the top 50 solar flares of X-class (1997-2023) on the global seismic activity, as well as on the earthquake preparation zones located in illuminated part of the globe and in the area of 5000 km radius around the subsolar point was carried out. It is shown by a method of epoch superposition that for all cases the increase of seismicity is observed, especially in the region around the subsolar point (up to 38%) during 10 days after the solar flare in comparison with preceding 10 days. The case study of aftershock sequence of strong M=9.1 earthquake (Su-matra-Andaman Islands, 26.12.2004) after the solar flare of X7.2 class (20.01.2005) demonstrated that the number of aftershocks with magnitude M≥2.5 increases more than 20 times after the solar flare with a delay of 7 days. For the case of the Darfield earthquake (M=7.1, 04.09.2010, New Zealand) it was shown that strong solar flares of class X and M probably triggered two strong aftershocks (M>6) with the same delay of 6 days on the Port Hills fault, which is the most sensitive to external electromagnetic impact from point of view of the fault electrical conductivity and orientation. Based on the obtained results the possible application of natural electromagnetic triggering of earthquakes is discussed for a short-term earthquake prediction using confidently recorded strong external electromagnetic triggering impacts on the specific earthquake preparation zones, as well as ionospheric perturbations due to aerosol emission from the earthquake sources recorded by satellites.

Existing research indicates that mineralization of Carlin-type gold deposit is related to geological structures, but current studies mostly focus on the qualitative association, and lack quantitative analysis of the relationship between mineralization and structural features, which limits the potential for predictive mineral exploration. In this study, the Nibao Carlin-type gold deposit was selected as the research area to conduct three-dimensional geological modeling, spatial analysis, and three-dimensional prospectivity modeling. Spatial analysis revealed that the majority of gold ore bodies are situated near the main fault, with gold mineralization primarily occurring within a spatial range of approximately -80 meters to 20 meters from the main fault plane. This spatial distribution predominantly aligns in a SW-NE direction. Spatial characteristic extraction of fault slope indicators suggests that the slope angles are conducive to the migration and accumulation of ore-forming hydrothermal fluids, with ore body metal content rapidly increasing within an angle range of approximately 20° to 60°. The shape analysis of the mainfault indicates that the principal spaces of mineralization enrichment are within -10m to 20m of the fault plane undulations, where gold resources are concentrated in a relatively flat area. However, the degree of mineralization is more pronounced in the protruding sections than in the depressed areas. The areas with significant dip changes in faults display higher variations in orebody attitudes, with mineralization noticeably weaker in areas where the fault steepness changes markedly. Ore-bearing units exhibit significantly higher grades within the -17° to 3° interval of fault steepness transition. This interval also sees a rapid accumulation of gold resources. The Nibao gold mine's mineralization is derived from deep, ore-bearing hydrothermal fluids ascending along major fractures, precipitating, and accumulating in favorable ore-hosting spaces (faults, anticline cores) and lithological combinations (sedimentary tuffs, tuffs). Three deep potential gold targets were identified, highlighting the deep western edge of the F1 fault and the deep southeast-trending lower plate as prospective areas for future exploration. This study underscores the effectiveness of 3D prospective modeling as an indispensable tool for elucidating the spatial distribution of fault-controlled Carlin-type gold deposits and their tectonic determinants.

Water quality assessment in pastoral of Tibetan Plateau, which is water sources for about 40% of world's population and the runoff-yield area of Yellow rivers, is very important. In this paper, Xiahe county which belongs to Tibetan Plateau pastoral was investigated. Six parameters(via, chloride, COD, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate, fluoride, sulfate) were selected to assess the water quality and health degree by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods. The hydrochemical type in surface water was of HCO3--Mg2+-Ca2+ type. The cations and anions in surface water were mainly from weathering and dissolution of carbonate rock. Results showed that the water quality in all 69 sampling sites was all of class Ⅰ. The integrated health degree reached more than 0.85 and the health rate were 100%. Although ammonia nitrogen was regarded as the main contamination factor, but it had a little effect on the entire body of water. Overall, the surface water qualities of most samples in Xiahe County was good condition.

Danyore Valley area is a new prospect of copper-gold mineralization in the Gilgit-Baltistan province, Kohistan terrane, northern Pakistan. The mineralization is Cu-Au vein-type, localized within quartz veins and controlled by a fracture system mainly trending NW and NE. The host units belong to the Ladakh-Kohistan arc terrane, which covers northern Pakistan and north-western India and mainly comprises Precambrian basement units, Paleozoic to Cenozoic magmatic rocks, and sedimentary strata. The mineralized wall rocks consist of Mesozoic gabbro and diorite, which have undergone an intensive hydrothermal alteration. The study area, Danyore Valley, has yet to be explored. The geological background and mineralization type in literature are scarce. Moreover, the tectonic setting, petrogenesis, age, and magmatic evolution of the gabbro-diorite hosting unit still need to be better understood. Furthermore, the sources of metals and mineralized fluids and the types of mineralization and alteration are also unexplored. This research's contribution presents the field investigation, microscopic observations, whole rock geochemistry (major, trace, and REE), mineral analysis (EPMA), in situ LA–ICP–MS zircon U–Pb age dating, and zircon trace elements data for Danyore Valley Cu-Au prospect of Kohistan Batholith. The current research work's objectives are to (a) constrain the emplacement ages of the Danyore Valley host rocks, (b) determine the petrogenesis and tectonic environment of the gabbro-diorite wall rocks, and (c) identify the mineralization style and alteration patterns of Cu-Au occurrences. The U-Pb isotopic data of studied zircons from Danyore Valley diorite specimens yielded concordia ages from 111.60 ± 0.90 Ma to 112.18 ± 0.74 Ma. Correspondingly, the gabbro rock sample displayed a concordia age of 110.21 ± 0.99 Ma, indicating the crystallization time of the host bodies is mainly the early cretaceous period (∼110 Ma). The findings of this study reveal that the calc-alkaline affinity and arc-like geochemical characteristics of the gabbro and diorite rocks have been characterized by a significant enrichment in large-ion lithophile elements and an apparent depletion in high-field strength elements. The parent magma probably originated from a partial melting process of mantle depletion, and geochemical traits are characteristic of magmas associated with subduction zones. The Danyore Valley area of Kohistan terrane is defined by the existence of several mineralized quartz veins, which are mainly sulfide assemblages. The sulfide ore is mainly comprised of chalcopyrite, pyrite, and bornite, with a smaller amount of covellite and sphalerite and significant traces of gold, which are distributed mainly in sulfides. Copper and gold mineralization of Danyore Valley is associated with phyllic, propylitic, and carbonatization alteration assemblages. Metal-rich quartz veins exhibit a spatial correlation with diorite and gabbro rocks. The discovery of several surface Cu-Au vein-type mineralized areas accompanying outcrops of copper supergene enrichment at the Danyore Valley prospect is significant evidence (predictor patterns) of porphyry-style deposits in the Gilgit district, Kohistan terrane, northern Pakistan. This work also advocates the importance of the Danyore Valley prospect and Kohistan Batholith region for further detailed geological studies.

The lithium-ion batteries are widely used as a power source for portable devices, including cell phones. The useful life is about 2 years or 500 cycles, contributing to the generation of waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE). Mining of lithium and cobalt damages the environment and is onerous; therefore, sustainable alternatives, such as obtaining these elements from secondary sources as recycling of lithium-ion batteries, are essential to provide the inputs used in the sector. However, the metallurgical route which will used to recovering them must be considered, due to this work aims for a more environmentally favorable process using DL-malic acid 1.5 M and instead of compared with sulfuric acid 2 M, heat pretreatment of 1 h and 3 h, and for all conditions, experiments were carried out with and without adding the oxidizing agent hydrogen peroxide. The best yields occurred in presence of H2O2 10 % v/v, and heat pretreatment of 1 h: 33.49 % Co and 4.63 % Li, and 29.78 % Co e 3.44 % Li were recovered by sulfuric acid and DL-malic acid, respectively.

Epithelial–mesenchymal transition (EMT) is defined as a cellular process during which epithelial cells acquire mesenchymal phenotypes and behavior following the downregulation of epithelial features. EMT and its reversed process, the mesenchymal-epithelial transition (MET), and the special form of EMT, the endothelial-mesenchymal transition (EndMT), have been thought as a universal dogma controlling developmental and pathological processes. More than half a century of EMT study has made it a large research field and a mainstream concept. However, discrepancies and disputes over EMT and EMT research have also grown over time. Particularly, neither the epithelial and mesenchymal states/properties nor their regulatory networks nor specific markers have been defined, rendering the EMT, MET and EndMT concepts groundless. Moreover, EMT and MET effects should not be a cause, but rather a consequence of or an accompanying effect during developmental and pathological processes. EMT and MET represented by the change in cell shapes or adhesiveness or symbolized by EMT factors are biased interpretation of the overall change in cellular property and regulatory networks during development and cancer progression. The true meaning of EMT effects in some developmental and pathological processes, such as fibrosis, needs re-evaluation. But the core EMT factors are actually a few components of the regulatory networks of neural stemness, which determines tumorigenicity and pluripotency. The EMT effects in cancer progression and neural crest formation are wrong attribution of the role of neural stemness during cancer progression and the cell-intrinsic property of neural crest cells to the unknown mesenchymal state. It is time to reassess the significance of EMT and its related concepts in scientific research.

Accurate prediction of the degree of airport delays under the influence of convective weather is crucial for collaborative traffic management implementation and improving the efficiency of airport operations. However, existing studies usually only consider numerical-type quantitative features of weather-affected traffic in their models, and lack the introduction of spatial information to comprehensively portray the traffic operation scenarios under the influence of weather. In order to overcome this problem, this paper firstly designs a new image representation of weather-affected air traffic, and constructs a multi-channel traffic and weather scene image (MTWSI) by populating the airspace two-dimensional grid with traffic and meteorological information to represent the overall traffic operation situation in the terminal area under the influence of convective weather; then, a deep convolutional neural network-based airport delay prediction model ( ADLCNN), which takes MTWSI images as input and uses a specific CNN model to extract the deep features that affect traffic operation in it to input into the subsequent classification algorithm to predict the flight delay level; finally, a series of comparative experiments are carried out on the operational data of Guangzhou Baiyun Airport, and the experimental validation shows that, compared with the traditional machine learning methods, the proposed CNN-based airport delay prediction The experimental validation shows that the proposed CNN-based airport delay prediction model has satisfactory prediction performance compared with the traditional machine learning methods, which also proves that the proposed MTWSI method can more comprehensively respond to the real traffic conditions.

Developing short-term forecasting model for global atmospheric temperature and wind in the near space is crucial for understanding atmospheric dynamics and supporting human activities in this region. While numerical models have been extensively developed, deep learning techniques have recently shown promise in improving atmospheric forecasting accuracy. In this study, convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) and convolutional gated recurrent unit (ConvGRU) neural networks were applied to build for short-term global-scale forecasting model of atmospheric temperature and wind in the `near space based on the MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset from 2010-2022. The model results showed that the ConvGRU model outperforms the ConvLSTM model in the short-term forecast results. The ConvGRU model achieved a root mean square error in the first three hours of approximately 1.8 K for temperature predictions, and errors of 4.2 m/s and 3.8 m/s for eastward and northward wind predictions, respectively.

Flavonoids are secondary plant metabolites involved in biological activity that are present in plentiful proportions in many plant origin foods and beverages. Owing to their chemical difference and qualities that make them beneficial for human health, they have received a lot of focus in research. This review therefore presents an account on the chemical structure of flavonoids, food sources and their metabolism with emphasis on bioavailability. And they also examine their antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, anticancer, cardiovascular protective, neuroprotective, and antimicrobial properties and reveal related molecular processes. In addition, it overviews the clinical data concerning their possible use in the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases. Some of the problems that attend current flavonoid research are also dealt with; such issues as variation in the bioactivity of flavonoids and scarcity of clinical studies. This review is designed to present current state of knowledge and to provoke further research concerning the further potential of flavonoids in enhancing human health.

The high performance of liquid chromatography(HPLC) has long been an indispensable tool for vigilance and analysis across range disciplines such as pharmaceuticals, environmental monitoring, food safety attributes etc. We will discuss about HPLC method development and validation, types of liquid chromatography methods focusing on proper use of a mobile phase like an eluent selection, how to optimize the conditions as well take it through its various procedures required for approval from regulatory bodies. Strategies to improve method robustness, sensitivity and reproducibility are highlighted. The future breakthroughs in HPLC technology and some innovative trends have also been speculated to limit this fundamental methodology.

Solanum indicum Linn, is commonly known as Indian Nightshade or Poison Berry belongs to the family Solanaceae. This review studied the botanical description, traditional uses of its seeds, its chemical composition, pharmacological properties and modern applications in medicinal system. The plant is rich in alkaloids, steroidal saponins, flavonoids and phenolic acids having diverse pharmacological activities and phytochemical profile. It is used in treatment of various respiratory disorders, inflammation, skin problems and gastrointestinal disease since ancient times. Scientific research in modern times also tested many of the traditional uses revealing anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, antimicrobial activities as well as some cytotoxic and even antidiabetic effects. These pharmacological activities show potential future as uses for organic drugs, natural health products, skincare formulations and agricultural advancements.

Amidst the escalating demands for efficient Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) management, the significance of accurate Origin-Destination (OD) data prediction has emerged as a paramount concern, given its indispensable role in the ITS domain. This paper introduces a groundbreaking integrated model, creatively fusing the unique strengths of Graph Convolutional Network (GCN), Residual Neural Network (ResNet), and Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM) into a single architecture, which we name GraphResLSTM, to exploit road segment average speed data for OD prediction. Compared with conventional road segment traffic volume data, average speed data is more readily available, significantly reducing the data accessibility barrier for OD prediction. We underscore the critical role of selection of key road segments and employs a combination of Entropy Weight Method and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to identify 41 representative road segments from the experimental road network. In the experimental phase, we simulate 86400000 seconds of traffic conditions, generating a total of 1440000 data records. Utilizing these simulated data, we design and conduct comparative experiments between models as well as data types. The results demonstrate that both the GraphResLSTM model and road segment average speed data outperform other models and data types notably in OD prediction tasks.

Day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers, and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participate in predicting the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, Fixed Weight Method (FWM) and Varying Weight Method (VWM), for selecting each hour's expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features derived from information such as past electricity price data, weather data, and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than both the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF) method and our own previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) alone do on the datasets for New York, Australian, and Spanish electricity markets.

In current transportation hubs, it is a common phenomenon that passengers travel with necessary wheeled-luggage or suitcases. Due to the fact that most luggage occupies certain space within dense passenger crowds with giant mass inertia, its abnormal motions, such as drifting, frequently trig unavoidable local disturbances and turbulence in surrounding pedestrian flows, further increasing security risk. While, current researches primarily concentrate on examining the impact of luggage on crowd evacuation efficiency through scenario-based experiments and analyzing the spatial characteristics of crowd distribution in surveillance videos. There still lacks of the dynamic disturbance mechanisms and crowd stability associated with the combined motion of passengers and luggage. Therefore, this study considers the luggage-laden passenger as a deformable particle, the resulting disturbance on surrounding non-luggage passengers is analyzed and quantified into a nonlinear pressure term. Subsequently, the disturbance propagation model of passenger-luggage is developed by adapting the classical Aw-Rascle traffic flow model with incorporation of the pressure term. Simulation experiments of disturbances caused by luggage drifting and retrograding validate that the proposed propagation model aligns with real-world situations in transportation hubs. Quantitively, when luggage-laden passenger drifted left, the disturbing force of left side crowd can reach a peak of 238N in the passenger density of 3.0 p/m2, and the maximum difference between the left and right sides disturbing force can reach 153N. Furthermore, it is recommended that the proposed model can be applied to crowd flow analysis and risk assessment.

We analyze a time-delayed SIQR model that considers the transportation-related infections and entry-exit screening. This model aims to determine the measures for preventing and controlling major emergent infectious diseases and the associated costs. We calculate the basic reproduction number (R0), apply the linearization method, and construct an appropriate Lyapunov function to determine the stability of the disease-free equilibrium in the local and global. We collect COVID-19 infection data from two regions in the United States in 2020 for data fitting, obtain a set of optimal parameter values, and show that the model is suitable for simulating the outbreak and spread of emerging infectious diseases. We find that transportation-related infections increase the basic reproduction number, enhancing the impact on disease spread. Entry-exit screening effectively suppress the spread of disease by reducing the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of the incubation period on disease and find that a shorter incubation period results in a shorter duration but a larger scale of infection, and the peaks are reduced. We conduct a sensitivity analysis of the R0 and propose three measures to prevent the spread of new infectious diseases based on the most sensitive parameters: wearing masks, implementing urban closures, and administering medication to sick but not yet hospitalized patients promptly. In the case of COVID-19, we use Pontryagin’s minimum principle to get time-varying control measures to control the spread of the outbreak. Optimal control effectively controls the development and deterioration of the disease. Finally, several control measures are compared through cost-effectiveness analysis, and the results show that wearing masks is the most cost-effective measure. Our study provides some practical guidance for controlling the spread of major emerging infectious diseases.

The strategy of any organization is based on the growth of its customer base, and one of 5 its principles is that selling a product to an existing customer is much more profitable than acquiring 6 a new customer. However, this approach has several opportunities for improvement, since it usu- 7 ally has a totally reactive approach, which does not give opportunity to the areas specialized in 8 customer experience and recovery, to give an effective response for that moment, since the customer 9 is gone at the time of the intervention. This happens because usually a diagnostic analysis of cus- 10 tomers who have stopped buying products or services in a defined period, commonly three (3) pe- 11 riods or months, is performed. This paper challenges the way to face this problem, and proposes 12 the development of a complete solution, which does not focus exclusively on the prediction of 13 churn, as is usually done in the state of the art research, but to intervene in different interactions 14 that can be carried out with customers. The above focused not only to prevent customer churn, but 15 to generate an added value of continuous improvement in sales processes, increase customer pene- 16 tration, leading to an improvement in customer experience and consequently, an increase in cus- 17 tomer loyalty.

Accurate diagnosis for the 400 million people with rare diseases is critical for healthcare decisions, prognosis, understanding disease mechanisms, and identification of treatments. Despite advances in genome sequencing, barriers such as high interpretation costs, diagnostic expertise, throughput associated delays, and uncertain variant classifications persist, with demand exceeding capacity. Many variant classification methods focus narrowly on specific consequences, leading to the use of complex integrative pipelines that often overlook transcript variability and lack prediction transparency. To overcome these limitations, we introduce DITTO. This transparent, transcript-aware machine-learning method demonstrates superior overall performance in accuracy, recall, and precision when compared to existing tools. DITTO is publicly available at https://github.com/uab-cgds-worthey/DITTO

Currently, two-component integrable nonlinear equations from the hierarchies of the vector nonlinear Schrodinger equation and the vector derivative nonlinear Schrödinger equation are being actively investigated. Usually, such two-component integrable nonlinear evolutionary equations are considered, the form of which does not depend on the replacement of one component with another. In this paper, we propose for consideration and usage a new hierarchy of two-component integrable nonlinear equations, which have an important difference from the already known equations. Among the hierarchy equations there are analogues of the two-component nonlinear Schrödinger equation (second equation from hierarchy) and the two-component modified Korteweg-de Vries equation (fourth equation from hierarchy). The third equation of the hierarchy is a combination of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation for one component and the modified Korteweg-de Vries equation for the second component. The equations for the individual components are very different from each other, even if they have the same order. Let us note that even hierarchy equations can be reduced to well-known variants of the scalar derivative nonlinear Schrödinger equations, and odd equations can’t be reduced. To construct the hierarchy equations, we use the monodromy matrix method, first proposed by B.A. Dubrovin. Knowledge of the monodromy matrix makes it possible to construct spectral curves of multiphase solutions, as well as to find stationary equations that these solutions satisfy. The last section presents the simplest solutions in the form of solitons and periodic one-phase waves, as well as spectral curves corresponding to these solutions.

By repeated unloading and loading of the excavation dynamic and static loads, repeated train dynamic and static loads of multi-factors, the underpass tunnel, cross tunnel engineering influence area rock layer, the existing tunnel structure of the three constitutes a multifaceted structure, multi-factor interaction system. Existing tunnels into the prediction theory model of the new tunnel excavation process of dynamic and static loads, dynamic and static loads of existing tunnels are mostly analyzed individually, the results of synergistic analysis needs to be improved. Based on the theory of the current layer method, the paper comprehensively considers the stiffness of the existing tunnel, the stiffness of the new tunnel, the excavation method load and the existing tunnel load, coupled with Peck's empirical formula, the theoretical model of deformation prediction for excavation of a two-lane highway tunnel under the tunnel through the existing railroad is proposed, and verified and optimized by numerical calculations and monitoring data, which proves the applicability and reliability of the theoretical model in the similar strata and the project promotion.

Multimodal knowledge graph completion necessitates the integration of information from multiple modalities (such as images and text) into the structural representation of entities to improve link prediction. However, most existing studies have overlooked the interaction between different modalities. To address this issue, this paper proposed a Transformer-based knowledge graph link prediction model (MM-Transformer) that fuses multimodal features. Different modal encoders are employed to extract structural, visual and textual features, and hybrid key-value calculations are performed on features from different modalities based on the Transformer architecture. The similarities of textual tags to structural tags and visual tags are calculated and aggregated respectively, and multimodal entity representations are modeled and optimized to reduce the heterogeneity of the representations. Experimental results demonstrate that, compared to the current multimodal state-of-the-art methods, the proposed method achieves significant performance improvements in knowledge graph link prediction tasks. This proves that the proposed method effectively addresses the problem of multimodal feature fusion in knowledge graph link prediction tasks.

In order to help the transportation industry achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, this study is based on the selection of eight variables, such as population size, per ca pita GDP, personal vehicle ownership, passenger and freight turnover, and green space coverage, as the factors influencing the carbon emissions of the transportation industry in Jiangsu Province, and the prediction and analysis of the transportation carbon emission trends from 2000 to 2021, and the prediction and analysis of the carbon emissions of the transportation industry and the time of the peak of the carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province. The trend of transportation carbon emissions from 2000 to 2021 was predicted and analyzed, and the carbon emissions and peak time of carbon emissions in the transportation industry in Jiangsu Province were predicted and analyzed. Comparing the predicted results with other models to verify the accuracy of the results, it was found that the WOA-SVM model had the smallest error among several models. On this basis, targeted measures are proposed to accelerate the process of carbon peak and ensure the smooth achievement of carbon neutrality goals in Jiangsu Province. The results indicate that under the current policy measures, the peak carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province will occur in 2038, with a peak of 48.72 million tons. Jiangsu Province should actively adopt energy-saving and emission-reduction measures, build a green and low-carbon transportation development model, and achieve the carbon peak target ahead of schedule.

The increase in population and the challenges caused by it are always among the concerns of decision-makers and policymakers in large countries. One of the most serious concerns is in the field of energy consumption. Optimizing energy use is one of the most effective ways to manage limited resources and energy. Energy consumption in residential houses constitutes a significant percentage of the total energy consumption worldwide; therefore, current research focusing on mathematical models aims to provide a predictive multi-objective linear mathematical model for residential house consumption. For this purpose, the consumption of water, electricity, and gas for 80 residential houses, including 10 household appliances and equipment on a weekly basis, has been considered. The results showed that the mixed-integer multi-objective predictor model is able to optimize household consumption plans compared to the actual state of household energy consumption. Since the goals of household satisfaction and energy consumption costs in the model conflict with each other, the influence coefficient was calculated to demonstrate the simultaneous achievement of these goals. The optimal value achievable with the default model for the model's purposes is 69%.

In this paper, we consider an epidemiological Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model in which the individuals cured from the infection return back into the group of people endangered by the infection. Delay differential equations were introduced to create more realistic models since many processes depend on past history. Many different mathematical methods, including the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model as well as derivatives thereof, can be used to prognose the spread of many various infectious diseases, including Covid-19.We use a nonlinear differential system with time delay as a mathematical formulation of this model. It is examined by the existence of a positive solution which is bounded by two functions $k_1, k_2\in C([t_0,\infty),(0,\infty))$ with constants $\lambda_1 > 0,\,\lambda_2 > 0$ where $0<\lambda_1\leq \lambda_2$. The conditions are put in place for existence of a positive solution that approaches zero in infinity, if $t\to\infty$. Infectious diseases accompany a person throughout their entire life, and in the history of mankind often appeared in frequent epidemics caused high mortality. The occurrence of infectious diseases in the population represents a serious health, social and economic problem. There is a lot of ambiguity concerning the time span and final spread of the epidemic thus making it very demanding for the governing bodies, healthcare institutions, and economic sector to precisely judge the future development.Several examples are shown at the end of this paper.

This study investigates by hybrid approach of classical calculations and numerical explicit FEM simulation the strain rate sensitive hardening of Polypropylene Sabic 83MF10 under dynamic tension loads. The Cowper-Symonds model is employed to characterize the non-linear increase in yield strength with strain rate, within the range of 0,01 to 1 [1⁄s]. For lower strain rates, a drastic decrease in yield strength is observed, suggesting the significant influence of creep and relaxation phenomena. The study proposes further research incorporating viscoelastic properties for a more comprehensive material model. Additionally, the study observes a disproportionate increase in yield strength for samples with smaller radius, indicating a dependency on triaxiality which suggests further research on the Drucker-Prager model for this material. The study concludes by recommending a broader range of input parameters for future studies, including the Johnson-Cook model and comparison of tensile test results with compression test results.

This study introduces a novel method for early prediction of Kimchi cabbage (Brassica rapa subsp. pekinensis (Lour.) Hanelt) height, utilizing drone imagery and a long short-term memory (LSTM) model. The research was conducted on a testbed at the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences (NAS) in South Korea, encompassing two distinct soil types (loam and sandy loam) to investigate their impact on growth. High-resolution drone images were captured throughout the growing season to generate a canopy height model (CHM) for estimating plant height at various stages. Missing height data were interpolated using a logistic growth curve, and an LSTM model was trained on this data to predict the final height of Kimchi cabbage at harvest. Three LSTM models were developed using time-series data collected at 29, 36, and 44 days after planting (DAP). The model trained on data from DAP 44 demonstrated the highest accuracy with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.83, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.48 cm, and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.26 cm, outperforming models trained on earlier data. Color-coded maps were generated to visualize the spatial distribution of predicted Kimchi cabbage heights, revealing variations in growth patterns across the testbed and confirming the model's potential for site-specific management. Considering the trade-off between accuracy and prediction timing, the model trained on DAP 36 data (MAE = 2.77 cm) was deemed optimal for informing cultivation management decisions. This research demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of integrating drone imagery, logistic growth curves, and LSTM models for early and accurate prediction of Kimchi cabbage height. The proposed technology enables data-driven decision-making for farmers, facilitating timely interventions based on predicted growth patterns. This could lead to improved crop yields, resource optimization, and a more sustainable agricultural future. Future research will focus on refining the model's accuracy and exploring its applicability to other crops, further expanding the potential of precision agriculture technologies.

The application of non-uniform spiral gratings to control structure, topological parameters and propagation of orbital angular momentum (OAM) beams was studied experimentally with coherent near-infrared light. Adapted digital spiral grating structures were programmed into the phase map of a high-resolution liquid-crystal-on-silicon spatial light modulator (LCoS-SLM). It is shown that characteristic spatio-spectral anomalies related to Gouy phase shift can be used as pointers to quantify rotational beam properties. Depending on sign and gradient of spatially variable periods of chirped spiral gratings (CSG), variations of rotation angle and angular velocity as a function of propagation distance were measured. Propagation-dependent self-torque is introduced in analogy to known local self-torque phenomena of OAM beams as obtained by the superposition of temporally chirped or phase modulated wavepackets.

In this work, we consider a one-dimensional laminated beam in the case of non-equal wave speeds with only one infinite memory on the effective rotation angle. In this case, we establish the general decay result for the energy of solution without any kind of internal or boundary control. The main result is obtained by applying the method used in Guesmia et al. (Electron. J. Differential Equations 193: 1-45, 2012) and the second-order energy.

Electromagnetic interference (EMI) generated by switching operations within high voltage DC (HVDC) converter stations is an issue that has been addressed by CIGRE and methods to manage EMI should be considered in the design phase using electromagnetic modeling techniques. It is shown that method of moments-based techniques that have been used in many previous studies may not be sufficient. Here, the finite-difference time-domain method is used to study the properties of single switching events using a realistic model of an HVDC converter station with special emphasis on determining the impact of the valve hall on shielding EMI. It is shown that the valve hall does not confine high frequency electromagnetic fields to the valve hall; rather it delays them from exiting through bushings in the wall. Further, it is shown that incorporating electromagnetic absorbing material into the valve hall design can significantly reduce EMI outside the converter station.

To overcome the time-consuming drawbacks of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) numerical simulations, this paper proposes a hybrid model based on a parallel architecture based on the concept of intelligent aerodynamics, named PA-TLA (Parallel Architecture combining TCN, LSTM, and Attention mechanism). This model utilizes CFD data to drive efficient predictions of aircraft wake evolution at different initial altitudes during the approach phase. Initially, CFD simulations of continuous initial altitudes during the approach phase are used to generate aircraft wake evolution data, which are then validated against real-world LIDAR data to verify their reliability. The PA-TLA model is designed based on a parallel architecture, combining Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTM), Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN), and a tensor concatenation module based on the attention mechanism, which ensures computational efficiency while fully leveraging the advantages of each component in a parallel processing framework. The study results show that the PA-TLA model outperforms both the LSTM and TCN models in predicting the three characteristic parameters of aircraft wake: vorticity, circulation, and Q-criterion. Compared to the serially structured TCN-LSTM, PA-TLA achieves an average reduction in mean squared error (MSE) by 6.80%, mean absolute error (MAE) by 7.70%, and root mean square error (RMSE) by 4.47%, with an average increase in the coefficient of determination (R²) by 0.36%, and a 35% improvement in prediction efficiency. Lastly, this study combines numerical simulation and the PA-TLA deep learning architecture to analyze the characteristics of wake evolution during the near-ground phase, providing theoretical value for further reducing aircraft wake intervals and enhancing airport operational efficiency.

In this work, a small-strain phase-field model is presented, which is able to predict crack propagation in systems with anisotropic brittle and ductile constituents. To model the anisotropic brittle crack propagation, an anisotropic critical energy release rate is used. The brittle constituents behave linear-elastically, in a transversely isotropic manner. Ductile crack growth is realised by a special crack degradation function, depending on the accumulated plastic strain, which is calculated by following the J2-plasticity theory. The mechanical jump conditions are applied in solid-solid phase transition regions. The influence of the relevant model parameters on a crack, propagating through a planar brittle-ductile interface, and furthermore a crack developing in a domain with a single anisotropic brittle ellipsoid, embedded in a ductile matrix, is investigated. We demonstrate that important properties, concerning the mechanical behaviour of grey cast iron, such as the favoured growth of cracks along the graphite lamellae and the tension-compression load asymmetry of the stress-strain response, are covered by the model. The behaviour is analysed on basis of a simulation domain consisting of three differently oriented elliptical inclusions, embedded in a ductile matrix, which is subjected to tensile and compressive load. The used material parameters correspond to graphite lamellae and pearlite.

The integration of deep learning models into financial risk prediction and analysis has significantly transformed traditional approaches. While conventional quantitative methods often rely on simplistic metrics like maximum drawdown, the advent of deep learning necessitates a more nuanced evaluation, emphasizing the model's generalization ability, especially during market crises such as stock market crashes. This paper explores the critical aspects of evaluating deep learning models' risk control capabilities in finance, underscoring the importance of understanding both statistical metrics and generalization abilities, particularly in adverse market conditions. By examining deep learning models' performance in scenarios like stock market crashes and highlighting the significance of cross-validation techniques, this study aims to offer practitioners insights into constructing robust risk management systems. It advocates for a comprehensive approach integrating quantitative analysis with macroeconomic factors to enhance financial risk prediction and analysis in volatile markets. The experimentation reveals that different deep generative models excel in various aspects of financial time series analysis, with generative adversarial networks (GANs) demonstrating superior performance in predicting Value at Risk (VaR) and variational autoencoders (VAEs) excelling in return rate prediction. Moreover, integrating multiple models further enhances predictive performance, leveraging the strengths of each model to compensate for individual weaknesses. Overall, this paper underscores the potential and significance of deep generative models in financial time series analysis, offering a roadmap for improved risk management and decision-making in financial markets.

The development of computational acoustics allows simulation of sound generation and propagation in complex environment. In particular, meshfree methods are widely used to solve acoustics problems through arbitrarily distributed field points and approximation smoothness flexibility. As a Lagrangian meshfree method, smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method reduce the difficulty in solving problems with deformable boundaries, complex topologies, or multiphase medium. The traditional SPH method has been applied in acoustic simulation. This study presents the corrective smoothed particle method (CSPM), which is a combination of SPH kernel estimate and Taylor series expansion. The CSPM is introduced as a Lagrangian approach to improve accuracy in solving acoustic wave equations in the time domain. Moreover, a boundary treatment technique based on the hybrid meshfree and finite difference time domain (FDTD) method is proposed to represent different acoustic boundaries with particles. To model sound propagation in pipes with different boundaries, soft, rigid, and absorbing boundary conditions are built with this technique. Numerical results show that the CSPM algorithm is consistent and demonstrates convergence with exact solutions. Main computational parameters are discussed, and different boundary conditions are validated to be effective for benchmark problems in computational acoustics.

Addressing the significant challenge in high-speed cotton dibbling operations in Xinjiang—specifically, the duck bill’s ("Duck bill" is a type of duck-billed bunch planting mechanism or component). shortened opening duration leading to seed throwing and floating—a new crawler-type delayed hole-forming mechanism has been designed. This mechanism extends the duck bill horizontally, thereby prolonging its opening time, enabling cotton sowing speeds of up to 6 km/h. Following agronomic principles for cotton planting, the overall layout of the crawler-type hole-forming mechanism, the structural parameters of the key components and the trajectory of the hole-forming are determined. We use the Discrete Element Method (DEM) and multi-body dynamics coupling method to simulate and analyze the motion process of the device. The fixed the tilt angle of the duck bill α(A), the depth of the duck bill hole-forming into the soil h(B), and the angle of rotation of the moving duck bill β(C) were taken as the experimental factors, with the longitudinal length of cotton seed hole (Y1) and the hole-forming depth of cotton seed hole (Y2) as the response values. The parameter range of each factor and the preliminary influence on the response value were determined through pre-experiments and single-factor simulation test. Based on RecurDyn-EDEM coupling, a quadratic regression orthogonal rotation combination simulation test was carried out. The results show that the order of the primary and secondary factors affecting the Y1 of the time-lapse hole-forming device was: A > C > B. The order of primary and secondary factors affecting the Y2 of the delayed hole forming device was: B > C > A. When the A was 2.4 °, the B was 42.4 mm, and the C was 30.5 °, the performance of the hole-forming was the best, and the Y1 was 26.4 mm, and the Y2 was 25.0 mm. The bench verification test results show that under the optimized combination of operating parameters, the average Y1 was 29.1 mm, and the average Y2 was 23.2 mm. Compared with the results of the previous coupled simulation model, the average relative errors of the two are 7.23 % and 4.36 %, respectively, indicating the accuracy and effectiveness of the established DEM simulation model and virtual test analysis. The hole-forming area and the opening time of the duck bill after the stable operation of the machine were recorded and measured. The calculated hole dislocation rate Hc was 4.33 %, which did not exceed the national standard requirement of 6 %. The qualified rate of hole distance Hx was 94.33 %, which was much higher than the national standard requirement of 80 %. The average opening time of the duck bill at a speed of 6 km/h is 0.45 s, which is much longer than the time required for cotton seeds to fall from the duck bill 0.11 s. It meets the requirements of high-speed cotton planting in China and facilitating advancements in future high-speed planter technology.

The stability and optimal control for an SIS epidemic model with demographics and heterogeneous control strategies (immunization and quarantine) on complex networks are investigated. The epidemic threshold, disease-free and endemic equilibria are derived. Then, global asymptotical stability about the two equilibria are studied based on different methods. Furthermore, the optimal control issue about the system is also considered. We obtain the existence and uniqueness of the optimal control and optimal control tactics. Some numerical simulations were conducted to illustrate and supplement the theoretical results. Meanwhile, the effects of the combination of various immunization and quarantine schemes are studied and also compared with the optimal control strategies.

The degree of ore rock fragmentation of mine blasting is an important index for evaluating the effect of engineering blasting. In order to study the effect of millisecond delayed blasting on the internal fragmentation of the ore rock, LS-DYNA numerical simulation software was used to obtain the damage characteristics of the ore rock in the blasting area using the RHT model. The Mohr-Coulomb strength damage criterion was applied to analyze the internal stress state of the ore rock, and the effects of 25ms, 50ms and 75ms delay time conditions on ore rock fragmentation were studied. The results show that, within a certain range of delay time, the degree of rock fragmentation increases with the increase of delay time. The stress state in the ore rock due to blasting is strengthened with the increase of delay time in the direction of the blast hole, which shows that the stress concentration is strengthened from the excavation face to the interior of the ore rock. The damage and the degree of fragmentation show a characteristic relationship of 25ms＜50ms＜75ms, which is verified by carrying out blasting experiments on site.

This research investigates the potential benefits of integrating machine learning algorithms and IoT sensors in modern agriculture. The focus is on optimizing crop production and reducing waste through informed decisions about planting, watering, and harvesting crops. The paper discusses the current state of machine learning and IoT in agriculture, highlighting key challenges and opportunities. It also presents experimental results that demonstrate the impact of changing labels on the accuracy of data analysis algorithms. The findings recommend that by analyzing wide-ranging data collected from farms, including real-time data from IoT sensors, farmers can make more informed verdicts about factors that affect crop growth. Eventually, the integration of these technologies can transform modern agriculture by increasing crop yields while minimizing waste. In our studies, we achieve a classification accuracy of 99.59% using the Bayes Net algorithm and 99. 46% using Naïve Bayes Classifier, and Hoeffding Tree algorithms. Our results indicate that we achieved high accuracy results in our experiments in order to increase crop growth.

Plain lakes play a crucial role in the hydrological cycle of a watershed, but their interactions with adjacent rivers and downstream water bodies can create complex river-lake relationships, often leading to frequent flooding disasters. Taking Poyang Lake as an example, this paper delves into its interaction with the Yangtze River, revealing the spatiotemporal patterns of flood propagation within the lake and its impact on surrounding flood control measures. The aim is to provide insights for flood management in similar environments worldwide. This study employs a comprehensive approach combining hydrological statistical analysis and two-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling, based on extensive hydrological, topographic, and socio-economic data. The results indicate that the annual maximum outflow from Poyang Lake is primarily controlled by floods within the watershed, while the highest annual lake water level is predominantly influenced by floods from the Yangtze River. The peak discharge typically reaches the lake outlet within 48 hours, with the peak water level taking slightly longer at 54 hours. However, water storage in the lake can shorten the time for the peak discharge to arrive. When converging with floods from the Yangtze River, the peak water level may be delayed by up to 10 days due to the top-supporting interaction. Furthermore, floods from the "Five Rivers" propagate differently within the lake, affecting various lake regions to differing degrees. Notably, floods from the Fu River cause the most significant rise in lake water level under the same flow rate. The top-supporting effect from the Yangtze River also significantly impacts the water surface slope of Poyang Lake. When the Yangtze River flood discharge far exceeds that of the "Five Rivers" (i.e., when the top-supporting intensity f value exceeds 4), the lake surface becomes as flat as a reservoir. During major floods in the watershed, the water level difference in the lake can increase dramatically, potentially creating a "dynamic storage capacity" of up to 840 million cubic meters.

Recently, a large number of Transformer-based solutions have emerged for the trajectory prediction task, but there are shortcomings in the effectiveness of Transformers in trajectory prediction. Specifically, while position encoding preserves some of the ordering information, the self-attention mechanism at the core of the Transformer has its alignment invariance that leads to the loss of temporal information, which is crucial for trajectory prediction. For this reason, we design a simple and efficient strategy for temporal information extraction and prediction of trajectory sequences using the self-attention mechanism and linear layers. Experimental results show that the strategy we designed can effectively combine the advantages of the linear layer and self-attention mechanisms, compensating for the shortcomings of the Transformer. Additionally, we conducted an empirical study to explore the effectiveness of the linear layer and sparse self-attention mechanisms in trajectory prediction.

Device to Device (D2D) is a pivotal technology in the next generation of communication, allowing for direct task offloading between mobile devices (MDs) to improve the efficient utilization of idle resources. This paper proposes a novel algorithm for dynamic task offloading between active MDs and idle MDs in the D2D-MEC (Mobile Edge Computing) system by deploying multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to minimize the long-term average delay of delay-sensitive tasks under deadline constraints. Our core innovation is a dynamic partitioning scheme for idle and active devices in the D2D-MEC system, accounting for stochastic task arrivals and multi-time-slot task execution, which has been insufficiently addressed in existing literature. We adopt a queue-based system to formulate a dynamic task offloading optimization problem. To address the challenges of large action space and coupling of actions across time slots, we model the problem as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and perform the multi-agent DRL through Multi-Agent Proximal Policy Optimization (MAPPO). We employ a centralized training with decentralized execution (CTDE) framework to enable each MD to make offloading decisions solely based on its local system state. Extensive simulations demonstrate the efficiency and fast convergence of our algorithm. In comparison with the existing sub-optimal results deploying single-agent DRL, our algorithm reduces the average task completion delay by 11.0% and the ratio of dropped tasks by 17.0%.

We write the mutual information between an input speech utterance and its reconstruction by a Code-Excited Linear Prediction (CELP) codec in terms of the mutual information between the input speech and the contributions due to the short term predictor, the adaptive codebook, and the fixed codebook. We then show that a recently introduced quantity, the log ratio of entropy powers, can be used to estimate these mutual informations in terms of bits/sample. A key result is that for many common distributions and for Gaussian autoregressive processes, the entropy powers in the ratio can be replaced by the corresponding minimum mean squared errors. We provide examples of estimating CELP codec performance using the new results and compare to the performance of the AMR codec and other CELP codecs. Similar to rate distortion theory, this method only needs the input source model and the appropriate distortion measure.

Among others, UWB-based multi anchor localization systems have been established for industrial indoor localization systems. However, multi anchor systems have high costs and installation effort. By exploiting the multipath propagation of the UWB signal, the infrastructure and thus the costs of conventional systems can be reduced. Our UWB Single Anchor Localization System (SALOS) successfully pursues this approach. The idea behind SALOS is to create a localization system with a sophisticated signal modeling. Therefore, neither measured reference like fingerprinting nor training is required for position estimation. Although SALOS has been implemented and tested successfully already in an outdoor scenario with multipath propagation, it has not yet been evaluated in indoor environment with challenging and hardly predictable multipath propagation. For this purpose, we have developed new algorithms for the existing hardware mainly a three-dimensional statistical multipath propagation model for arbitrary spatial geometries. The signal propagation between the anchor and predefined candidate points for the tag position is modeled in path length and complex-valued receive amplitudes. For position estimation, these modeled signals are combined to multiple sets and compared to UWB measurements via a similarity metric. In the end, a majority decision of multiple position estimates is performed. For evaluation, we implement SALOS in a modular fashion and install the system in a building. For a fixed grid of 20 positions, SALOS is evaluated in terms of position accuracy. The system results in correct position estimations for more than 73% of the measurements.

Assessing corneal biomechanics in vivo has long been a challenge in the field of ophthalmology. Although recent wave-based optical coherence elastography (OCE) methods have shown promise in this area, the effect of intraocular pressure (IOP) on mechanical wave propagation in the cornea remains unclear. To address this, we constructed an artificial eye model and performed surface wave OCE measurements in the radial directions (54–324°) of the silicone cornea at varying IOP levels (10–40 mmHg). The results demonstrated increases in wave propagation speeds (mean ± STD) from 6.55 ± 0.09 m/s (10 mmHg) to 9.82 ± 0.19 m/s (40 mmHg), leading to an estimate of Young’s modulus, which increased exponentially from 145.23 ± 4.43 kPa to 326.44 ± 13.30 kPa. Our implementation of an artificial eye model highlighted that the impact of IOP on Young’s modulus (ΔE = 165.59 kPa, IOP: 10–40 mmHg) was more significant than the effect of stretching of the silicone cornea (ΔE = 15.79 kPa, relative elongation: 0.98%–6.49%). Our study sheds light on the potential of using an artificial eye model in OCE research for corneal biomechanics. Furthermore, it is critical to consider the impact of IOP on measurement results when utilizing wave-based OCE in clinical settings for enhanced assessment of corneal biomechanics.

This paper focuses on parametric model order reduction (PMOR) of guided ultrasonic wave propagation and its interaction with damage in a fiber metal laminate (FML). Structural health monitoring in FML seeks to detect, localize and characterize the damage with high accuracy and minimal use of sensors. This can be achieved by the inverse problem analysis approach which employs the signal measurement data recorded by the embedded sensors in the structure. The inverse analysis requires to solve the forward simulation of the underlying system several thousand times. These simulations are often exorbitantly expensive and triggered the need for improving their computational efficiency. A PMOR approach hinged on the proper orthogonal decomposition method is presented in this paper. An adaptive parameter sampling technique is established with the aid of a surrogate model to efficiently update the reduced-order basis in a greedy fashion. A numerical experiment is conducted to illustrate the parametric training of the reduced-order model. The results show that the reduced-order solution based on the PMOR approach is accurately complying with that of the high fidelity solution.

The partial discharge (PD) event in high voltage insulation releases energy, exerts mechanical pressure, and generates elastic waves. Detecting and locating these PD events through short-duration acoustic pulses is well-established, particularly in gas-insulated systems and oil-insulated transformers. However, its full potential remains untapped in solid insulation systems, where the propagation capability of acoustic pulse and the acoustic reflections pose fundamental challenges to the Acoustic Emission (AE) detection technique. This study investigates the influence of reflections and multiple paths on the propagating acoustic pulse in polymeric insulating materials using a finite element method (FEM) in COMSOL. It was observed that the reflections from the boundary influence the propagating pulse's shape, peak magnitude, and arrival time. An analytical MATLAB model further quantifies the impact of multiple propagation paths on the shape, magnitude, and arrival time of the pulse travelling in a cylinder. Additionally, a Perfect Matched Layer (PML) was implemented in the COMSOL model to eliminate reflections from the boundary, and it revealed that the acoustic pulse magnitude decreases with distance following the inverse square law. In essence, the models aid in measuring how reflections contribute to the observed signals, facilitating the precise identification of the source of the PD event in the tested system.

As people's consumption habits change, loan plays a crucial role in our modern society. It provides individuals who do not have sufficient money with funds to purchase residential property or start a business. However, for avoiding unpleasant loan defaults, all financial institutions will first assess the borrower's risk index. By predicting the default risk of the borrower to decide whether to lend money. Machine learning algorithms, including random forest, linear regression and so on, have been benefited most of the real-world applications. With the development of machine learning methods, this paper, based on the personal history loan data of an institution studies the loan default risk, and uses the random forest classification model to predict the possibility of loan default. The result showed that the accuracy of this method was 85.62%, which show its application ability of real-world loan prediction and benefits the manager to decide the degree of risk for loan grant.

Peanut leaf spot is a worldwide disease whose prevalence poses a major threat to peanut yield and quality, and accurate prediction models are urgently needed for timely disease management. In this study, we proposed a novel peanut leaf spot prediction method based on an improved long short-term memory (LSTM) model and multi-year meteorological data combined with disease survey records. Our method employed a combination of convolutional neural network (CNN) and LSTM to capture spatial-temporal patterns from the data and improve the model ability to recognize dynamic features of the disease. In addition, we introduced an attention mechanism module to enhance model performance by focusing on key features. Through several hyper-parameter optimization adjustments, we identified a peanut leaf spot disease condition index prediction model with a learning rate of 0.001, a number of cycles (Epochs) of 800, and an optimizer of Adma. The results showed that the integrated model demonstrated excellent prediction ability, obtaining an RMSE of 0.063 and an R2 of 0.951, which reduced the RMSE by 0.253 and 0.204, and raised the R2 by 0.155 and 0.122, respectively, compared to the single CNN and LSTM. Predicting the incidence and severity of peanut leaf spot disease based on the meteorological conditions and neural networks is feasible and valuable to help growers made accurate management decisions and reduced disease impacts through optimal fungicide application timing.

Rising incidences of cutaneous melanoma have fueled the development of statistical models that predict the individual melanoma risk. Our aim was to assess the validity of published prediction models for incident cutaneous melanoma using a standardized procedure based on PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool). We included studies that were identified by a recent systematic review and updated the literature search to ensure that our PROBAST rating included all relevant studies. Six reviewers assessed the risk of bias (ROB) for each study using the published “PROBAST Assessment Form” that consists of four domains and an overall rating of ROB. We further examined a temporal effect regarding changes in overall and domain-specific ROB rating distributions. Altogether 42 studies were assessed, of which a vast majority (n=34; 81%) was rated as having high ROB. Only one study was judged as having low ROB. The main reasons for high ROB ratings were the use of hospital controls in case-control studies and the omission of any validation of prediction models. However, our results of the temporal analysis showed a significant reduction in the number of studies with high ROB for the domain analysis. Nevertheless, the evidence base of high-quality studies that can be used to draw conclusions on the prediction of incident cutaneous melanoma is currently much weaker than the high number of studies on this topic would suggest.

Sinkhole formation caused by leaking pipes in karst soluble rocks is a significant concern, leading to infrastructure damage and safety risks. In this paper, an experiment was conducted to investigate sinkhole formation in dense sand induced by a leaking pipe. Fibre Bragg gratings (FBGs) sensors were used to record the strain. A balloon was gradually deflated within a bed of wet silica sand to create an underground cavity. Eighteen FBG sensors, with a wavelength range between 1550 nm and 1560 nm, were embedded horizontally and vertically in the physical model at different levels to monitor deformation at various locations. A leaking pipe was installed to induce the collapse of the formed arch above the cavity. The strain measurements suggest four phases in the sinkhole formation process: (1) cavity formation, (2) progressive weathering and erosion, (3) catastrophic collapse, and (4) subsequent equilibrium conditions. The results showed differences in strain signatures and distributions between horizontal and vertical measurements. During the critical phase of sinkhole collapse, horizontal measurements primarily showed tension, while vertical measurements indicated compression. This investigation demonstrates the effectiveness of FBGs as advanced monitoring tools for sinkhole precursor identification. The study also suggests using FBGs in geotechnical monitoring applications to improve understanding and mitigation of sinkholes and related geohazards.

Stock price prediction is of great significance but faces numerous challenges. In this study, a hybrid CNN-LSTM model was utilized. The stock data were processed and feature engineering was conducted. The model architecture and training strategies were expounded. Experimental results demonstrated that this model outperformed traditional methods and benchmark models on the test set, featuring strong capabilities in feature extraction and handling long-term dependencies. Key roles of data preprocessing, hyperparameter adjustment, and model fusion were also summarized, providing valuable references for stock price prediction.

While the language model using the stop sign as an independent token has been widely used to decide when the model should stop, it may lead to the growth of vocabulary dimensions and further problems. Similarly, present research on game algorithms usually estimate stopping point related problems based on the evaluation of the winning rate. However, information redundancy may also exist in such models, thus increasing the training difficulty. Above two types of tasks (and similar autoregressive tasks) show a common problem of stopping point prediction. In this paper, we describe a design of separated model, trying to separate the complexity of stopping point prediction from the main task model, so that the information used for estimating stopping point can be reduced. On this basis, in order to verify the rationality of using separated model, we propose a model-free test method. It judges the separability of transformed data based on point difference and sequence difference metrics. In this way, it can predict the credibility of the separated model inference.

Introduction: Within primary ARDS, SARS-CoV-2-associated ARDS (C-ARDS) emerged in late 2019, reaching its peak during the subsequent two years. Recent efforts in ARDS research have concentrated on phenotyping this heterogeneous syndrome to enhance comprehension of its pathophysiology. Methods and Results: A retrospective study was conducted on C-ARDS patients from April 2020 to February 2021, encompassing 110 participants with a mean age of 63.2±11.92 (26-83 years). Of these, 61.2% (68) were male, and 25% (17) experienced severe ARDS, resulting in a mortality rate of 47.3% (52). Ventilation settings, arterial blood gases, and chest X-ray (CXR) were evaluated on the first day of invasive mechanical ventilation and between days two and three. CXR images were scrutinized using a convolutional neural network (CNN). A binary logistic regression model for predicting C-ARDS mortality was developed based on the most influential variables: age, PaO2/FiO2 ratio (P/F) on days one and three, CNN-extracted CXR features, and age. Initial performance assessment on test data (23 patients out of the 110) revealed an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.862 CI (0.654-0.969). Conclusion: Integrating data available in all intensive care units enables the prediction of C-ARDS mortality by utilizing evolving P/F ratios and CXR. This approach can assist in tailoring treatment plans and initiating early discussions to escalate care and extracorporeal life support. Machine learning algorithms for imaging classification can uncover otherwise inaccessible patterns, potentially evolving into another form of ARDS phenotyping. The combined features of these algorithms and clinical variables demonstrate superior performance compared to either element alone.

Badminton tactics refer to the techniques and strategies employed by players to win a match. Analyzing these tactics can help players improve their performance and outsmart their opponents. To study the tactics of top players, we use a gaming tree to analyze matches between two of the most powerful badminton players in history: Lin and Lee. By employing the Nash Equilibrium, we can discover the most beneficial strategies for both players, which reflect their most powerful techniques. Additionally, with the help of this gaming tree, we can precisely predict how players will implement their tactics. Empirical experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method not only evaluates and identifies each player's weaknesses and strengths but also has powerful capabilities to predict their tactics.

In this paper, we tackle air quality forecasting by using machine learning approaches to predict the hourly concentration of air pollutants (e.g., Ozone, PM_2.5 and Sulfur Dioxide). Machine learning, as one of the most popular techniques, is able to efficiently train a model on big data by using large-scale optimization algorithms. Although there exists some works applying machine learning to air quality prediction, most of the prior studies are restricted to small scale data and simply train standard regression models (linear or non-linear) to predict the hourly air pollution concentration. In this work, we propose refined models to predict the hourly air pollution concentration based on meteorological data of previous days by formulating the prediction of 24 hours as a multi-task learning problem. It enables us to select a good model with different regularization techniques. We propose a useful regularization by enforcing the prediction models of consecutive hours to be close to each other, and compare with several typical regularizations for multi-task learning including standard Frobenius norm regularization, nuclear norm regularization, ℓ_2,1 norm regularization. Our experiments show the proposed formulations and regularization achieve better performance than existing standard regression models and existing regularizations.

Guided ultrasonic waves are suitable for use in the context of structural health monitoring of thin-walled, plate-like structures. Hence, observing the wave propagation in the plates can provide an indication of whether damage has occurred in the structure. In this work, the wave propagation in fiber metal laminate consisting of thin steel foils and layers of carbon fiber-reinforced polymer is studied, focusing on the main propagation characteristics like dispersion diagrams and displacement fields. For this purpose, the dispersion diagrams derived from the analytical framework and numerical simulations are first determined and compared to each other. Next, the displacement fields are computed using the global matrix method for two excitation frequencies. The results derived from the analytical framework is used to validate numerically determined displacement fields based on a 2D and a 3D modeling approach. For both investigations the results of the analytical treatment and the numerical simulation show good agreement. Furthermore, the displacement field reveals the typical and well-known characteristics of the propagation of guided waves in thin-walled structures. Since the use of full 3D models involves a very high computational cost, this work also successfully investigates the possibility for model order reduction to decrease the computational time and costs of the simulation without the loss of accuracy.

This paper seeks to model the crack propagation in of AAs (aluminum-alloys) 2524-T3 and 7050-T7452 subjected to fatigue loading at low temperature. Fatigue crack growth tests were performed on AAs 2524-T3 and 7050-T7452 subjected to constant-amplitude and actual random-spectra loading histories at room temperature of about 25 °C and at cryogenic temperature of -70 °C, respectively, to determine their crack growth properties and residual lives. The interaction mechanisms between cryogenic temperature and the fatigue load were deduced on the basis of the results of fractographic analysis. Temperature-dependent residual lives under actual random-spectrum load history were modeled based on a modified accumulation damage rule by accounting for the load interaction. Good correlation was achieved between the predictions and actual experiments, demonstrating the practical and effective use of the proposed method.

Climacteric fruits undergo a characteristic ripening process regulated by ethylene, a key plant hormone. Extending the shelf life of these fruits while preserving their postharvest quality poses a significant challenge for the food industry. This review provides a comprehensive overview of physiological and molecular strategies to delay ethylene-mediated ripening in climacteric fruits and their impact on shelf life, postharvest quality, sensory attributes, and volatile compounds. Additionally, it examines the role of ethylene in fruit ripening analysing various ethylene managing strategies including ethylene inhibitors, ethylene adsorbents and ethylene scavengers by catalytic oxidation The review concludes with future research directions including integrated strategies, environmental considerations and commercial applications for improving postharvest handling and fruit quality.

Color change is the most obvious characteristic of tomato ripening stage and an important indicator of tomato ripening condition, which directly affects the commodity value of tomato. To visualize the color change of tomato fruit in mature stage, a gated recurrent unit network with an encoder-decoder structure that dynamically simulates tomato growth and development with time-dependent lines using tomato color and shape as real-time data was proposed in this paper. Firstly, the .json file was converted into a mask.png file, the tomato mask was extracted, and the tomato was separated from the complex background environment, and the tomato growth and development data set was successfully constructed. Then, a network of gated recurrent units with encoder-decoder structure was constructed to predict the future growth trend of tomato under different greenhouse temperatures. The experimental results showed that for the gated recurrent unit network of encoder-decoder structure proposed, when the hidden layer number was 1 and hidden layer number was 512, a high consistency and similarity between the model predicted image sequence and the actual growth and development image sequence would be realized, and the structural similarity index measure was 0.746. It was proved that when the average temperature was 24.93℃, the average soil temperature was 24.06℃, and the average light intensity was 11.26 Klux, the environment was the most suitable for tomato growth. The environmental data-driven tomato growth model was constructed to explore the growth status of tomato under different environmental conditions, thus to understand the growth status of tomato in time. The statement provided a theoretical foundation for determining the optimal greenhouse environmental conditions to achieve tomato maturity. And it offered recommendations for investigating the growth cycle of tomatoes, as well as technical assistance for standardized cultivation in solar greenhouses.

This paper analyses the application of deep learning techniques for predicting wave overtopping events in port environments using sea state and weather forecasts as inputs. The study was conducted in the outer port of Punta Langosteira, A Coruña, Spain. A video recording infrastructure was installed to monitor overtopping events from 2015 to 2022, identifying 3709 overtopping events. The data collected was merged with actual and predicted data for the sea state and weather conditions during the overtopping events, creating three datasets. We used these datasets to create several machine learning models to predict whether an overtopping event would occur based on sea state and weather conditions. The final models achieved a high accuracy level during the training and testing stages: 0.81, 0.73, and 0.84 average accuracy during training and 0.67, 0.48, and 0.86 average accuracy during testing, respectively. The results of this study have significant implications for port safety and efficiency, as wave overtopping events can cause disruptions and potential damage. Using deep learning techniques for overtopping prediction can help port managers take preventative measures and optimize operations, ultimately improving safety and helping to minimize the economic impact that overtopping events have on the port's activities.

Despite the availability of COVID-19 vaccines, the global pandemic remains a significant health challenge. Timely detection of the virus is crucial for effective containment efforts, prompting the exploration of machine learning (ML) models for COVID-19 detection. highlights the ongoing significance of COVID-19 as a global health crisis despite the availability of vaccines. To address the need for timely virus detection, the study explores the efficacy of machine learning (ML) models, including DNN, Voting, Bagging, SVC_rbf, SVC_linear, SVC_polynomial, and SVC_sigmoid, in predicting COVID-19 infection probability. With a dataset comprising 4000 samples split into 3200 for training and 800 for testing, the analysis reveals that DNN and Voting models demonstrate the highest performance, achieving an impressive accuracy of 89%. These results underscore the potential of ML techniques, particularly DNN and ensemble methods like Voting, in facilitating early COVID-19 detection and contributing to effective pandemic management. The study emphasizes the importance of continued research to further refine and optimize ML-based COVID-19 detection systems.

The group delay response of chirped fiber Bragg gratings (CFBG) written in polarization-maintaining fiber can be measured using the beat spectrum of the reflections from the two polarization axis, with a resolution and reproducibility better than 50 fs. The method is theoretically described, and we analyze the effect of group delay ripples (GDR) on the performance of a stretcher-compressor pair used in chirped pulse amplification systems. Ripples with a spectral period of the order of the pulse bandwidth are the most deleterious. Those are readily captured with our method, despite the limit on resolution due to the fiber polarization beat length. As a rule of thumb, the GDR should not exceed half the pulse duration. The reconstructed phase of the CFBG is also used to predict the pulse compression performance for a given device. Measurement of GDR as low as 161 fs is experimentally demonstrated.

Purpose: This study aimed to investigate useful preoperative clinical and hematologic variables in predicting malignancy in patients with the atypia of undetermined significance (AUS) nodules, and to suggest a machine learning-based prediction model. Methods: We enrolled 280 patients who underwent surgery for the AUS nodules at Wonju Severance Christian Hospital between 2018 and 2022. We evaluated preoperative hematologic indices, including Delta Neutrophil Index (DNI), Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR), and Platelet-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (PLR), as well as preoperatively identifiable clinical variables such as age and sex at diagnosis, history of radiation exposure, familial history of thyroid cancer, primary tumor size, and the 2016 Korean Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (K-TIRADS) classification. Results: A total of 116 patients (41.4%) were finally diagnosed with various types of thyroid malignancy, excluding 32 patients (11.4%) with thyroid cancer incidentally identified. Age at diagnosis (p = 0.012), primary tumor size (p = 0.048), and the K-TIRADS classification (p = 0.003) were independent risk factors to predict the diagnosis of malignancy in patients with AUS nodules younger than 55 years, not in those aged of 55 years or older. Adding the NLR to these risk factors significantly improved the predictability for malignancy in the same patient group (p < 0.001). Conclusions: The inclusion of NLR in the ma-lignancy prediction model enhances the predictive accuracy for malignancy in younger patients with AUS nodules. This finding suggests that incorporating NLR into preoperative assessment could refine management strategies and improve decision-making for surgical interventions.

In this paper, we study the problem of controllability of impulsive neutral evolution integrodifferential equations with state dependent delay in Banach spaces. The main results are completely new and are obtained by using Sadovskii's fixed point theorem, theory of resolvent operators, and an abstract phase space. An example is given to illustrate the theory.

Urban growth in various cities across the world, especially in developing countries, leads to land use change. Thus, predicting future urban growth in the most rapidly growing region of Nigeria becomes a significant endeavor. This study analyzes land use and land cover (LULC) change and predicts the future urban growth of the Lagos metropolitan region, using Cellular Automata (CA) model. To achieve this, the GlobeLand30 datasets from years 2000 and 2010 were used to obtain LULC maps, which were utilized for modeling and prediction. Change analysis and prediction for LULC scenario for 2030 were performed using LCM and CA_Markov chain modeling. The results show a substantial growth of artificial surfaces, which will cause further reductions in cultivated land, grassland, shrubland, wetland, and waterbodies. There was no appreciable impact of change for bare land, as its initial extent of cover later disappeared completely. Additionally, artificial surfaces/urban growth in Lagos expanded to the neighboring towns and localities in Ogun State during the study period, and it is expected that such growth will be higher in 2030. Lastly, the study findings will be beneficial to urban planners and land use managers in making key decisions regarding urban growth and improved land use management in Nigeria.

Tsunami is a type of infrequent geohazards with devastating consequences, which makes accurate computer simulations of tsunami waves particularly desirable for hazard assessment and mitigation purposes. The evolution of a typical tsunami involves the generation, propagation and inundation phases. In this survey, we briefly describe the most common types of tsunamigenic sources and give a detailed review of some most widely used mathematical models for describing tsunami propagation. We emphasize the approximations adopted in each mathematical model and point out their most important advantages and disadvantages. Tsunami propagation modeling is computationally demanding, involving a wide span of spatial and temporal scales. While some of the approximate models are sufficiently accurate for describing wave behaviors at certain scales, they might not be applicable at other scales. Effective and efficient tsunami propagation simulations will likely depend upon the proper coupling of different models for different scales.

We present a new family of Bessel solutions of the paraxial equation. Such solutions keep their form during propagation due to a quadratic phase factor that makes them scaled propagation invariant fields. The Bessel beams we introduce have the particularity that the topological phase is twice the order of the Bessel function and the argument varies quadratically with the radius

Hospital readmission and length of stay prediction provide info to manage hospitals’ bed capacity and the number of required staff, especially during pandemics. We present a hybrid deep model called Genetic Algorithm-Optimized Convolutional Neural Network (GAOCNN) with a unique preprocessing method to predict hospital readmission and the length of stay in patients having various conditions. GAOCNN uses one-dimensional convolutional layers to predict hospital readmission and length of stay. The parameters of the layers are optimized using a genetic algorithm. To show the performance of the proposed model in patients with various conditions, we evaluate the model under three healthcare datasets; the Diabetes 130-US hospitals dataset, the COVID-19 dataset, and the MIMIC-III dataset. The diabetes 130-US hospitals dataset has information on both readmission and the length of stay, while COVID-19 and MIMIC-III datasets just include information on the length of stay. Experimental results show that the proposed model’s accuracy for hospital readmission is 97.2% for diabetic patients. Also, the accuracy of the length of stay prediction is 89%, 99.4%, and 94.1% for diabetic, COVID-19, and ICU patients, respectively. These results confirm the superiority of the proposed model compared to existing methods. Our findings offer a platform for managing healthcare funds and resources for patients with various diseases.

Factorization reduces computational complexity and is therefore an important tool in statistical machine learning of high dimensional systems. Conventional molecular modeling, including molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations of molecular systems, is a large research field based on approximate factorization of molecular interactions. Recently, the local distribution theory was proposed to factorize global joint distribution of a given molecular system into trainable local distributions. Belief propagation algorithms are a family of exact factorization algorithms for trees and are extended to approximate loopy belief propagation algorithms for graphs with loops. Despite the fact that factorization of probability distribution is their common foundation, computational research in molecular systems and machine learning studies utilizing belief propagation algorithms have been carried out independently with respective track of algorithm development. The connection and differences among these factorization algorithms are briefly presented in this perspective, with the hope to intrigue further development in factorization algorithms for physical modeling of complex molecular systems.

Nodes in wireless sensor networks (WSN) are characterized particularly by their limited power and memory capabilities. Limited memory is an important parameter as it defines the size of the operating system and the processing code. As established previously, energy and memory efficiency is the most important evaluation factors of WSNs as they are directly related to data loss and network lifetime. However, based on our simulation results, memory efficiency determines the selection or abandon of nodes by the botmaster for the propagation of bots in an IoT infrastructure. Consequently, the node’s memory efficiency determined the spread of bots in the network and provides defense actors with an insight of the botmaster behavior for mitigation of the attack. Conventional botnet propagation and mitigation models did not consider the impact of node’s memory efficiency in the IoT platform. To address this gap, we build IoT-SIEF, a novel propagation model with forensic capability that will analyze command and control propagation behavior based on the perspective of the node’s memory efficiency. IoT-SIEF model used to explore the dynamics of propagation using numerical simulation with more than 50% outperform other models in mitigating the number of secondary bots. Consequently, it can serve as a basis for assisting the planning, design, and defense of such networks from the investigator's point of view.

Neonatal hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) occurs in 1.5 per 1000 live births, leaving affected children with long-term motor and cognitive deficits. Few animal models of HIE incorporate maternal immune activation (MIA) despite the significant risk MIA poses to HIE incidence and diagnosis. Our non-invasive model of HIE pairs late gestation MIA with postnatal hypoxia. HIE pups exhibited a trend toward smaller overall brain size and delays in the ontogeny of several developmental milestones. In adulthood, HIE animals had reduced strength and gait deficits, but no difference in speed. Surprisingly, HIE animals performed better on the rotarod, an assessment of motor coordination. There was significant upregulation of inflammatory genes in microglia 24 hours after hypoxia. Single cell RNAseq revealed two microglia subclusters of interest following HIE. Pseudobulk analysis revealed increased microglia motility gene expression and upregulation of epigenetic machinery and neurodevelopmental genes in macrophages following HIE. No sex differences were found in any measures. These results support a two-hit noninvasive model pairing MIA and hypoxia as a model for HIE in humans. This model results in a milder phenotype compared to established HIE models; however, HIE is a clinically heterogeneous injury resulting in a variety of outcomes in humans. The pathways identified in our model of HIE may reveal novel targets for therapy for neonates with HIE.

Spatio-Temporal Dynamic Mode Decomposition (STDMD) is an extension of Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) designed to handle spatio-temporal datasets. It extends the framework so that it can analyze data that has both spatial and temporal variations, allowing for the extraction of spatial structures and their temporal evolution. The STDMD method extracts temporal and spatial development information simultaneously, including wavenumber, frequencies and growth rates, which is essential in complex dynamic systems. We provide a comprehensive mathematical framework for sequential and parallel STDMD approaches. We also introduce delay coordinates generalization to the presented algorithms to extend the scope of their application. The extension, labeled delay embedding STDMD allows the use of delayed data, which can be both time-delayed and space-delayed. An explicit expression of the presented algorithms in matrix form is also provided, which facilitates theoretical analysis and provides a solid foundation for further research and development. The novel approach is demonstrated using some illustrative model dynamics.

Space instable target simulator (SITS) is a vital actuator for ground verification of on-orbital capture technology, the motion performance of which directly affects simulation credibility. Different delays reduce the stability of SITS and ultimately lead to its divergence. In order to achieve high fidelity simulation, the impact of force measurement delay, discrete control cycle, and simulator response delay on stability is analyzed firstly. Then, the dynamic equation and transfer function identification model of hybrid simulator is constructed, and the necessary and sufficient conditions of its stability and convergence are obtained using the Routh criterion. After that, a switching compensator with variable gain is proposed, the compensation principle diagram of which is build, and its mathematical model including the energy observer and tracking differentiator is also established. Finally, three sets of numerical simulations are conducted to validate the correctness of the stability analysis and effectiveness of proposed compensation method. Simulation results show that all three types of delay can cause SITS to lose stability under critical stable motion state, and the delay in force measurement has the greatest impact, followed by the influence of control cycle. Compared with the force applied to simulated target, velocity and its recovery coefficient of space instable target using fixed gain and linear gain compensation, the proposed compensator has significantly better performance.

The solar energy can mitigate the power supply shortage in remote regions for portable irrigation systems. The accurate prediction of solar irradiance is crucial for determining the quantity of solar panels and the power capacity of photovoltaic power generation (PVPG) systems for mobile sprinkler machines. In this study, a prediction method is proposed to forecast the solar irradiance of typical irrigation areas. The impact of the meteorological parameters on the solar irradiance is studied, and four different parameter combinations are formed and considered as input to the prediction model. Based on meteorological data provided by ten typical radiation stations uniformly distributed nationwide, an Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model optimized using the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) is developed to predict the solar radiation. The prediction accuracy and stability of the proposed method are then evaluated for different input parameters through training and testing. The differences between the prediction performances of models trained based on single-station data and mixed data from multiple stations are also compared. The obtained results show that the proposed model achieves the highest prediction accuracy when the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, sunshine hours ratio, relative humidity, wind speed, and extraterrestrial radiation are used as the input parameters. The prediction effectiveness is also verified based on measured data. The WOA-XGBoost model has higher prediction accuracy than the XGBoost model, with predicted values falling within acceptable ranges. The model developed using mixed data of multiple stations can be applied for forecasting solar irradiance in different regions. This study provides a foundation for the optimization of the configuration of PVPG systems for mobile sprinkler machines.

Background: Ensemble tree-based models such as Xgboost are highly prognostic in cardiovascular medicine, as measured by the Clinical Effectiveness Metric (CEM). However, their ability to handle correlated data, such as hospital-level effects, are limited. Objectives: The aim of this work is to develop a binary outcome mixed effects Xgboost (BME) model that integrates random effects at the hospital level. To ascertain how well the model handles correlated data in cardiovascular outcomes, we aims to assess its performance and compare it to fixed effects Xgboost and traditional logistic regression models. Methods: A total of 227,087 patients over 17 years of age, undergoing cardiac surgery from 42 UK hospitals between 1 Jan 2012 and 31 Mar 2019 were included. The dataset was split into two cohorts: Training/Validation (n = 157196; 2012-2016) and Holdout (n = 69891; 2017-2019). The outcome variable was 30 days mortality with hospitals considered as clustering variable. The logistic regression, mixed effects logistic regression, Xgboost and binary outcome mixed effects Xgboost (BME) were fitted to both standardized and unstandardized datasets across a range of sample sizes and the estimated prediction power metrics were compared to identify the best approach. Results: The exploratory study found high variability in hospital-related mortality across datasets, which supported the adoption of mixed effects models. Unstandardized Xgboost BME demonstrated marked improvements in predictor power over the Xgboost model at small sample size ranges, but performance differences decreased as dataset sizes increased. Generalized linear models (glm) and generalized linear mixed-effects models (glmer) models followed similar results, with Xgboost models excelling also at greater sample sizes. Conclusions: These findings suggest that integrating mixed effects into machine learning models can enhance their applicability in clinical settings where sample size is small such as rare conditions.

In this paper, we study nonlocal problems for a fractional diffusion equation and a degenerate hyperbolic equation with singular coefficients in the lower terms. The uniqueness of the solution to the problem is proved by the method of energy integrals. The existence of a solution is equivalently reduced to the question of the solvability of Volterra integral equations of the second kind and a fractional differential equation. For a particular solution of the proposed problem, its visualization is carried out for various values of the order of the fractional derivative. It is shown that the order of the derivative affects the intensity of the diffusion process (subdiffusion), as well as the shape of the wave front.

Hypergravity accelerators are a type of large machinery used for gravity training or medical research. A failure of such large equipment can be a serious problem in terms of safety or costs. This paper proposes a prediction model that can proactively prevent failures that may occur in a hy-pergravity accelerator. The method proposed in this paper was to convert vibration signals to spectograms and perform classification training using a deep learning model. An experiment was conducted to evaluate the performance of the method proposed in this paper. A 4-channel accel-erometer was attached to the bearing housing, which is a rotor, and time-amplitude data were obtained from the measured values by sampling. The data were converted to a two-dimensional spectrogram, and classification training was performed using a deep learning model for four conditions of the equipment: Unbalance, Misalignment, Shaft Rubbing, and Normal. The ex-perimental results showed that the proposed method had a 99.5% F1-Score, which was up to 23% higher than the 76.25% for existing feature-based learning models.

Urbanization degrades natural habitats and creates new urban ecosystems, like domestic gardens. The plant composition of these gardens varies with socio-economic factors and urban planning levels. However, the diversity and impact of introduced species are often poorly assessed, causing potential ecological imbalances, particularly in Lubumbashi (DR Congo). The objective was to analyze the spatial structure, plant diversity, propagation strategies, and ecological functions of domestic gardens. Three distinct neighborhoods were selected: planned, unplanned and residential neighborhood. 20 avenues (with 5 plots per avenue) were chosen to represent the diversity within each neighborhood, and stratified random sampling of plots was conducted to analyze gardening practices. Gardens were classified into types, and their vegetation was evaluated based on species origin and ecological impact. The analysis of domestic gardens in Lubumbashi reveals significant variations across different neighborhood types. Residential neighborhoods exhibit larger average garden sizes (315.1 m²), higher species richness (22 species), and larger plot sizes (1032 m²) compared to unplanned and planned neighborhoods, where garden areas and species richness are notably lower. Rectangular gardens dominate in unplanned areas, while planned neighborhoods feature more intentional landscaping elements, such as flowerbeds and hedges. The use of gardens for food production is prominent in planned areas (40.7%), whereas residential neighborhoods prioritize ornamentation (51.4%). The study identifies 232 species across 68 families, with a predominance of exotic species (80%) in all neighborhoods, particularly in unplanned areas (82.25%). The data reveals that Mangifera indica and Persea americana are abundant in all neighborhoods, illustrating their adaptability to different urban contexts. Herbaceous species are most common, followed by woody plants, with vines being sparse. Species dispersal is primarily driven by human activities (anthropochory), accounting for over 85% in all neighborhoods. These findings highlight the strong human influence on the composition and structure of domestic gardens in Lubumbashi, emphasizing the dominance of exotic species and the importance of anthropogenic factors in shaping urban green spaces. Urban policies should incorporate strategies to minimize the negative impacts of exotic species on native flora.

Objective: To investigate the efficacy of a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomics model in predicting colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRLM). Methods: A total of 120 patients who underwent baseline MRI examination at the Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College from June 2016 to August 2022 and were pathologically confirmed to have colorectal cancer (CRC) were randomly divided into a training group and a validation group. The clinical risk factors and MRI data of all patients were collected. Univariate and multivariate analysis were used to screen the clinically independent risk factors for CRLM. The radiomic features of each sequence were extracted from oblique axial or axial fat-free T2-weighted imaging (T2WI) and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) sequences. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to screen the optimal radiomic features of each sequence. Logistic regression was used to establish a prediction model of each sequence (T2WI and DWI models), a combined radiomics model (M) integrating the features of T2WI and DWI sequences, and a combined imaging-clinical model (U) combining the radiomic features of each sequence with clinically independent risk factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the predictive performance of each model. Results: Among the 120 CRC patients enrolled, 57 had liver metastasis, and 63 did not. The tumor markers carcinoembryonic antigen and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 were clinically independent risk factors for CRLM. Three optimal radiomic features were screened from T2WI and DWI sequences through LASSO regression analysis, respectively. The AUC values of the T2WI, DWI, M, and U models were 0.811, 0.803, 0.824, and 0.899 in the training group and 0.795, 0.798, 0.813, and 0.889 in the validation group, respectively. The predictive performance of the combined models was better than that of the single-sequence models. The U model performed best at predicting CRLM. Conclusion: An MRI radiomics model based on CRC primary lesions can predict CRLM well. Our combined model integrating the radiomic features of each sequence and clinically independent risk factors had the best predictive performance.

Effective prediction of wastewater treatment is beneficial for precise control of wastewater treatment processes. The nonlinearity of pollutant indicators such as COD and TP makes the model difficult to fit and has low prediction accuracy. The classical deep learning methods have been shown to perform nonlinear modeling. However, there are enormous numerical differences between multi-dimensional data in the prediction problem of wastewater treatment, such as COD above 3000 mg/L and TP around 30 mg/L. It will make current normalization methods challenging to handle effectively, leading to the training failing to converge and the gradient disappears or exploding. This paper proposes a multi-factor prediction model based on deep learning. The model consists of a combined normalization layer and a codec. The combined normalization layer combines the advantages of three normalization calculation methods: z-score, Interval, and Max, which can realize the adaptive processing of multi-factor data, fully retain the characteristics of the data, and finally cooperate with the codec to learn the data characteristics and output the prediction results. Experiments show that the proposed model can overcome data differences and complex nonlinearity in predicting industrial wastewater pollutant indicators and achieve better prediction accuracy than classical models.

This paper presents an effective heart disease prediction model through detecting the anomalies, also known as outliers, in healthcare data using the unsupervised K-means clustering algorithm. Most existing approaches for detecting anomalies are based on constructing profiles of normal instances. However, such techniques require an adequate number of normal profiles to justify those models. Our proposed model first evaluates an \textit{optimal} value of K using Silhouette method. Next, it intends to locate anomalies that are far from a certain threshold distance with respect to their clusters. Finally, the five most popular classification techniques such as K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Naive Bayes (NB), and Logistic Regression (LR) are applied to build the resultant prediction model. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is justified using a benchmark dataset of heart disease.

This pandemic of COVID-19 is tedious to control. The only lockdown is the way to stop the spread of this infection. Conventional health care is facing a real challenge to operate. Primarily the challenge is to provide health care support for COVID-19 patients with limited resources and continue the health care services like earlier.Perhaps, this challenge is the same but magnitude is different from different geographical locations around the globe. In this article, we presented a Bayesian algorithm with the Code to predict cancer death due to COVID-19. This code is possible to run at different time points and different geographical locations around the world. This code will help us to get the best strategy and shift the treatment option for cancer treatment. The model would provide physicians with an objective tool for counseling and decision making at different hotspots and small areas to implement.

Terpenoids, including monoterpenoids (C₁₀), norisoprenoids (C₁₃) and sesquiterpenoids (C₁₅), constitute a large group of plant-derived naturally occurring secondary metabolites which chemical structure is highly diverse. A quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model to predict the terpenoids toxicity and to evaluate the influences of their chemical structure, was developed in this study, by assessing the toxicity of 27 terpenoid standards using Gram-negative bioluminescent Vibrio fischeri, in real time. Under the test conditions, at concentration of 1 µM, the terpenoids showed a toxicity level lower than five %, with exception of geraniol, citral, (S)-citronellal, geranic acid, (±)-α-terpinyl acetate and geranyl acetone. Moreover, the standards tested displayed a toxicity level higher than 30 % at concentration of 50 to 100 µM, with the exception of (+)-valencene, eucalyptol, (+)-borneol, guaiazulene, β-caryophellene and linalool oxide. Regarding the functional group, the terpenoids toxicity was observed in the following order: alcohol > aldehyde ~ ketone > ester > hydrocarbons. CODESSA software was employed to develop the QSAR models based on the correlation of terpenoids toxicity and a pool of descriptors related to each chemical structure. The QSAR models, based on t-test values, showed that terpenoids toxicity was mainly attributed to geometric (e.g., asphericity) and electronic (e.g., max partial charge for a C atom [Zefirov's PC]) descriptors. Statistically, the most significant overall correlation was the four-parameter equation with training and test coefficient correlation higher than 0.810 and 0.535, respectively, and square coefficient of cross-validation (Q²) higher than 0.689. According to the obtained data, the QSAR models are a suitable and a rapid tool to predict the terpenoids toxicity in a diversity of food products.

Dynamic measurement error correction is an effective method to improve the sensor precision. Dynamic measurement error prediction is an important part of error correction, support vector machine (SVM) is often used to predicting the dynamic measurement error of sensors. Traditionally, the parameters of SVM were always set by manual, which can not ensure the model’s performance. In this paper, a method of SVM based on an improved particle swarm optimization (NAPSO) is proposed to predict the dynamic measurement error of sensors. Natural selection and Simulated annealing are added in PSO to raise the ability to avoid local optimum. To verify the performance of NAPSO-SVM, three types of algorithms are selected to optimize the SVM’s parameters, they are the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), the improved PSO optimization algorithm (NAPSO), and the glowworm swarm optimization (GSO). The dynamic measurement error data of two sensors are applied as the test data. The root mean squared error and mean absoluter percentage error are employed to evaluate the prediction models’ performances. The experiment results show that the NAPSO-SVM has a better prediction precision and a less prediction errors among the three algorithms, and it is an effective method in predicting dynamic measurement errors of sensors.

Energy storage systems (ESS) are penetrating into various sections of power system through different applications. ESS can be used either as a buffer for intermittent renewable energy sources or as a stand-alone distributed storage for load shifting. ESS use different types of storage devices such as lead-acid batteries, lithium ion batteries, flow batteries, and super-capacitors. Hybrid ESS consisting of few types of storage devices are also common in practice. Determining the load demand of such ESSs at various instances (charging profile) accurately is indispensable in most of the cases. Capacity loss is common phenomenon that occurs in all types of storage devices because of ageing. Capacity loss has to be accounted while determining the charging profile of storage devices for better accuracy. Data-driven modeling is an attractive approach for determining the load demand of ESS due to the availability of valuable data from smart grid technologies. In this paper, the application of different types of data-driven models to predict the current charging profile of the ESS based on previous charging profiles is examined. The proposed method can leverage on the existing data from smart grid and is a black box modeling approach.

To assess the impact of tourism on the incidence of HIV and AIDS using Malaysian epidemiological data over the period of 1986-2011 with additional consideration for newborns infected with HIV. A population-level mathematical model was used to investigate: i) the role of tourism in the spread of HIV and measures used to reduce HIV spread in Malaysia; ii) whether the stability of infectious disease transmission is dependent on the flow of visiting tourists. We first derived an equation for the reproduction number (R0) threshold to quantify the contagiousness of HIV in Malaysia. Sensitivity analyses were used to determine the effect of various parameters on HIV transmission with respect to the increase in tourism. Our findings suggest that a stable disease-free state is sustainable based on the low value of R0 was 0.0017. This result is encouraging from a public health perspective. Approximately 14% of outbound tourists who leave the country return infected with HIV and the difference between the rate at which tourists move to the susceptible category and the rate at which tourists leave the susceptible is category is 12%. Estimated parameters for the influx of tourist rates, δ=1.1540x10-3[1.1477x10-3 - 1.15954x10-3], δ1=7.7901x10-4[7.7867x10-4 - 7.79418x10-4], and δ2=1.4030x10-8[-7.2287x10-7-7.5096x10-7], significantly impacted the spread of HIV in Malaysia. Some significant adjustments were made to the expected parameters. The methods used are helpful to public health analyses and provide a framework for epidemiological modeling of HIV spread among tourists. The trend and magnitude of tourist inflows may be determinants in the incidence of HIV and AIDS in Malaysia.

Emission, propagation, and reflection of light as mechanical phenomena in inertial frames are based on the behavior of balls at the limit when their mass is zero. The kinematics of massless balls is like that of balls with mass. Light as a wave or particle is a massless entity. Therefore, it is natural to apply the kinematics of the massless balls to light. Consequently, the kinematics of light depends on its kinetics of electromagnetic nature and its kinematics of mechanical nature in its interactions of emission and reflection with the matter. The study of the physics phenomena in the frame at absolute rest includes those in the inertial frames. Considering this and applying the emission, propagation, and reflection of light as mechanical phenomena in the vacuum of the frame at absolute rest, this study derives formulas for the speed of the wavefront of a ray of light reflected by a fixed and moving mirror when the light comes from a fixed and moving source. The derived formulas apply to the modified Michelson interferometer, employed independently by R. Tomaschek and D. C. Miller in their experiments.

Model-based fault diagnosis serves as a powerful technique for addressing fault detection and isolation issues in control systems. However, diagnosing faults in closed-loop control systems is more challenging due to their inherent robustness. This paper aims to detect and isolate actuator and sensor faults in the cascade electro-hydraulic control system of a turbofan engine. Based on the fault characteristics, we design a robust unknown perturbation decoupling residual generator and an optimal fault observer specifically for the inner and outer control loops to detect potential faults. To locate the faults, we analyze the steady-state propagation laws of actuator and sensor faults within the loops using the final value theorem. Based on this, we establish the minimal-dimensional fault influence distribution matrix specific to the cascade turbofan engine control system. Subsequently, we construct the normalized residual vectors and monitor its vector angles against each row of the fault influence distribution matrix to isolate faults. Experiments conducted on an electro-hydraulic test bench demonstrate that our proposed method can accurately locate four typical faults of actuators and sensors within the cascade electro-hydraulic control system. This study enriches the existing fault isolation methods for complex dynamic systems, and lays the foundation for guiding component repair and maintenance.

A single photon inside a gravitational field defined by the accelerates $g$ is found to have a gravitational mass given by $m_g=(\hbar/2c^3)g$, where $\hbar$ is the reduced Planck's constant, and $c$ is the speed of light in vacuum. This force is equivalent to the curvature force introduced by Einstein's general relativity. These photons behave like the radiation emitted by a black hole. A black hole emitting such a radiation develops an entropy that is found to increase linearly with black hole mass, and inversely with the photon mass. Based on this, the entropy of a solar black hole emitting photons of mass $\sim 10^{-33}eV$ amounts to $\sim 10^{77}\,k_B$. The created photons could be seen as resulting from quantum fluctuation during an uncertainty time given by $\Delta t=c/g$. The gravitational force on the photon is that of an entropic nature, and varies inversely with the square of the entropy. The power of the massive photon radiation is found to be analogous to Larmor power of an accelerating charge.

Small molecules that can modulate or stabilize cell-cell interactions are valuable tools for investigating the impact of collective cell behavior on various biological processes such as development/morphogenesis, tissue regeneration and cancer progression. Recently, we showed that budesonide, a glucocorticoid widely used as anti-asthmatic drug, is a potent regulator of stem cell pluripotency. Here we tested the effect of different budesonide derivatives and identified CHD-030498 as a more effective analogue of budesonide. CHD-030498 was able to prevent stem cell pluripotency exit in different cell-based models, including embryonic stem-to-mesenchymal transition, spontaneous differentiation and 3D gastruloid development, and at lower doses compared to budesonide.

Leaf springs are critical components for the railway vehicle safety in which they are installed. Although these components are produced in high-strength alloyed steel and designed to operate under cyclic loading conditions in the high-cyclic fatigue region, their failure is still possible to occur and hence lead to economic and human catastrophes. The aim of this document is precisely to characterise the mechanical crack growth behaviour of the 51CrV4 spring steel representative of leaf springs under cyclic conditions, that is, crack propagation in mode I. The common fatigue crack growth prediction models (Paris and Walker) considering the effect of stress ratio and parameters such as propagation threshold, critical stress intensity factor and crack closure ratio are also determined using statistical methods, which resulted in good approximations with respect to the experimental results. Lastly, the fracture surfaces under the different test conditions were analysed using SEM, with no significant differences to declare. As a result of this research work, it is expected that the developed properties and fatigue crack growth prediction models can assist design and maintenance engineers in understanding fatigue behaviour in the initiation and propagation phase of cracks in leaf springs for railway freight wagons.

This study employs the phase-field regularized cohesion model (PF-CZM) to simulate crack propagation and damage behavior in porous granite. We investigate how pore radius (r), initial crack-pore distance (D), and pore-crack angle (θ) impact crack propagation. The simulation findings reveal that, with a fixed deflection angle and initial crack-pore distance, larger pores are more likely to induce crack extension under identical loading conditions. Moreover, with r and θ keeping constant, the crack extension can be divided into two stages: from its initiation to the lower edge of the pore and then from the lower edge to the upper boundary of the model. By varying the values of D and r, we derive multiple combinations of different D/r ratios and pore radii. These results demonstrate that with constant r, cracks tend to deflect toward the pore closer to the initial crack. Conversely, when D is maintained constant, cracks will preferentially deflect toward pores with a larger r. In summary, the numerical simulation of rock pores and initial cracks, based on the PF-CZM, exhibits remarkable predictive capabilities and holds significant potential in advancing rock fracture analysis.

Longitudinal cutting is a most common process in steel structure manufacturing, and the man-hours of the process provide an important basis for enterprises to generate production schedules.However, currently the man-hours in factories are mainly estimated by experts, and the accuracy of this method is relatively low.In this study,we propose a system that predicts man-hours with history data in the manufacturing process and that can be applied in practical structural steel fabrication.The system addresses the data inconsistency problem by one-hot encoding and data normalization techniques,Pearson correlation coefficient for feature selection,and the Random Forest Regression(RFR) for prediction.Compared with the other three Machine Learning(ML) algorithms, the Random Forest algorithm has the best performance.The results demonstrate that the proposed system outperforms the conventional approach and has better forecast accuracy, so that it is suitable for man-hours prediction.

A PLS-based quality prediction method is proposed for batch processes using two-dimensional extended windows. To realize the adoption of information in the direction of sampling time and batch, a new definition region of support (ROS), k-i-back-extended region of support (KIBROS), is proposed to establish the extended window, which including the data of the previous sampling times in the same batch, the data of the same sampling time in the historical batches, the data of the previous sampling times in the historical batches and the data of the later sampling times in the historical batches. According to these regions of support, extended windows are established, and different models are proposed based on the extended windows for batch processes quality prediction. Further, using a typical batch process as an example, the injection molding process, the proposed quality prediction method is experimentally verified, proving that the proposed methods have higher prediction accuracy than the traditional method and the prediction stability is also improved.

Pseudolysimachion nakaianum (Ohwi) T.Yamaz. is an endemic species that is an important species in the forest ecosystems of South Korea. This study aimed to develop an in vitro propagation system for P. nakaianum, to enhance the availability of this rare and endemic plant for commercial horticulture and restoration efforts. We utilized cotyledon explants from in vitro germinated seeds and two types of explants (petiole and leaf) from in vitro seedlings to assess the impact of five different cytokinins on adventitious shoot organogenesis in P. nakaianum. The half-strength Murashige and Skoog (MS) medium, supplemented with 10 µM thidiazuron (TDZ) for both cotyledon and petiole explants, yielded the highest shoot induction rates (61.1 ± 9.6% and 26.7 ± 8.8%, respectively) and the greatest number of shoots (3 ± 0.6 and 4.4 ± 0.5, respectively). Responses from leaf explants were variable, with none showing in vitro regeneration. Successfully acclimatized P. nakaianum plantlets in a greenhouse demonstrated normal growth. This protocol outlines an effective method for the direct in vitro regeneration from cotyledon and petiole explants of P. nakaianum, providing valuable information for the conservation of this species.

Stroke constitutes a significant public health concern due to its impact on mortality and morbidity. This study investigates the utility of machine learning algorithms in predicting stroke and identifying key risk factors using data from the Suita study, comprising 7,389 participants and 53 variables. Initially, unsupervised K-prototype clustering categorized participants into risk clusters, while five supervised models including Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Light Gradient Boosted Machine (Light-GBM) were employed to predict stroke outcomes. Stroke incidence disparities among identified risk clusters using the unsupervised K-prototype clustering method are substantial, according to the findings. Supervised learning, particularly RF was a preferable option because of the higher levels of performance metrics. The Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method identified age, systolic blood pressure, hypertension, estimated glomerular filtration rate, metabolic syndrome, and blood glucose level as key predictors of stroke, aligning with findings from the unsupervised clustering approach in high-risk groups. Additionally, previously unidentified risk factors such as elbow joint thickness, fructosamine, hemoglobin, and calcium level demonstrate potential for stroke prediction. In conclusion, machine learning facilitated accurate stroke risk predictions and highlighted potential biomarkers, offering a data-driven framework for risk assessment and biomarker discovery.

To improve the accuracy of short-term multi-energy load prediction models for integrated energy systems, the historical development law of the multi-energy loads must be considered. Moreover, understanding the complex coupling correlation of the different loads in the multi-energy systems and accounting for other load-influencing factors, such as weather, may further improve the forecasting performance of such models. In this study, a two-stage fuzzy optimization method is proposed for the feature selection and identification of the multi-energy loads. To enrich the information content of the prediction input feature, we introduced a copula correlation feature analysis in the proposed framework, which extracts the complex dynamic coupling correlation of multi-energy loads and applies Akaike information criterion (AIC) to evaluate the adaptability of the different copula models presented. Furthermore, we combined a NARX neural network with Bayesian optimization and an extreme learning machine model optimized using a genetic algorithm to effectively improve the feature fusion performances of the proposed multi-energy load prediction model. The effectiveness of the proposed short-term prediction model was confirmed by the experimental results obtained using the multi-energy load time-series data of an actual integrated energy system.

Stocks portfolio is a form of investment that can be used to minimize the risk of loss. In a stock portfolio, the value at risk (VaR) can be predicted through the portfolio return. If portfolio return variance is heteroscedastic risk prediction can be done by using VaR with ARIMA-GARCH or Ensemble ARIMA-GARCH model approach. Furthermore, the accuracy of VaR is tested through backtesting test. In this study, the portfolio formed from Astra Agro Lestari Ltd (AALI) and Indofood Ltd (INDF) stocks from 10/02/2012 to 10/01/2019. The results showed that the best model is ARIMA(0,0,[3])-GARCH(1,2) with AIC of -5.604 and MSE 1.874e-07.At confidence level of 95% and 1 day holding period, the VaR of the ARIMA(0,0,[3])-GARCH(1,2) was -0.3464. Based on the backtesting test, it is proven to be very accurate to predict the value of loss risk because the value of the violation ratio (VR) is equal to 0.

Landslides are a frequent and recurrent problem in hilly regions of India and predicting them is always a challenging task. In this paper, an attempt was made to deal with this problem using advanced physical and numerical modeling methods. Detailed understanding of the initial slope failures is very interesting, and challenging at the same time, in the design and development of wireless sensor network based on early warning of landslide monitoring. A small scale physical model was developed to assess the instability through a sensor network with variable rain fall intensity. This was achieved by increasing the simulated rain water flow intensity in different time spans (dry condition, at t=0 to t= 30 min, 0.5 mm/min at t=30 to t= 60 min, 0.75 mm/min at t=60 to t=91 min and 1 mm/min at t=91 to t= 120 min). The water level and movement in the slope was recorded by rainfall sensor, vibration sensor, soil moisture sensor and a digital camera. The following changes were observed during the slope failure: a) movement of small particles at top of the slope; b) initial failure of medium size soil particle; c) scouring of soil mass; d) whole slope collapse. The obtained results clearly indicated the superiority and effectiveness of the proposed system in providing a factor of safety for the progressive slope.

In the dynamic landscape of the telecommunications industry, understanding and mitigating customer churn is paramount for maintaining competitive advantage and sustaining revenue streams. This comprehensive literature review delves into the intricacies of customer churn prediction, a crucial aspect in fortifying the bond between telecom businesses and their customers. The review methodically analyzes 11 articles published between 2000 and March 2024, spotlighting the strategic role of Customer Relationship Management and the prevalence of high churn rates that necessitate a shift from customer acquisition to retention strategies. Furthermore, the review navigates through the challenges inherent in churn prediction, including the complexities of managing large, imbalanced, and noisy datasets and the intricacies involved in model selection and optimization. Despite these challenges, the paper highlights the superior capability of machine learning techniques in handling complex datasets to provide accurate predictions, albeit acknowledging their practical complexities. The main aim of the study is to provide an overview, serving as a knowledge base for researchers interested in machine learning techniques within the realm of telecommunications.

This study introduces a novel predictive model for atomization droplet size, developed through comprehensive data collected under elevated temperature and pressure conditions using a twin swirl airblast nozzle. The model, grounded in flow instability theory, has been meticulously parameterized using the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. Through rigorous analysis, including analysis of variance (ANOVA), the model has demonstrated robust reliability and precision, with a maximum relative error of 19.3% and an average relative error of 6.8%. Compared to the classical atomization model by Rizkalla and Lefebvre, this model leverages theoretical insights and incorporates a range of interacting variables, enhancing its applicability and accuracy. Spearman correlation analysis reveals that air pressure and the air pressure drop ratio significantly negatively impact droplet size, whereas the fuel-air ratio (FAR) shows a positive correlation. Experimental validation at ambient conditions shows that the model is applicable with a reliability threshold of ≥0.13 and highlight the predominance of the pressure swirl mechanism over aerodynamic atomization at higher fuel flow rates (q > 1.25 kg/h). This research effectively bridges theoretical and practical perspectives, offering critical insights for the optimization of airblast nozzle design.