Rainfall variability has resulted in extreme events like devastating floods and droughts which is the main cause of human vulnerability to precipitation in West Africa. Attempts have been made by previous studies to understand rainfall variability over Ghana but these have mostly focused on the major rainy season of April-July, leaving a gap in our understanding of the variability in the September-November season which is a very important aspect of the Ghanaian climate system. The current study seeks to close this knowledge gap by employing statistical tools to quantify variabilities in rainfall amounts, rain days, and extreme precipitation indices in the minor rainfall season over Ghana. We find extremely high variability in rainfall with a Coefficient of variation (CV) between 25.3% and 70.8%, and moderate to high variability in rain days (CV=14.0% - 48.8%). Rainfall amount was found to be higher over the middle sector (262.7 mm – 400.2 mm) but lowest over the east coast (125.2 mm – 181.8 mm). Analysis of the second rainfall season using the Mankandell Test presents a non-significant trend of rainfall amount and extreme indices (R10, R20, R99p, and R99p) for many places in southern Ghana. Rainfall Anomaly Indices show that the middle sector recorded above normal precipitation which is the opposite for areas in the transition zone. The result of this work provides a good understanding of rainfall in the minor rainfall season and may be used for planning purposes.

Climate change is an issue that is the order of the day, and among the many consequences it has on the environment one is its influence on the amount and frequency of rainfall on our planet, since our water supply depends on them. Therefore, in order to quantify these effects, a rainfall analysis has been carried out using data collected in Bilbao over the last 150 years. Thanks to this, it has been possible to observe that, although the total annual amount seems to suffer a slight decrease, hardly quantifiable with certainty, it is true that the intra-annual patterns are more concentrated at certain times of the year, with greater imbalances between one month and another than in previous years. However, taking into account the capacity of the reservoirs that supply the Greater Bilbao area, it can be concluded that this does not pose any problem for Bilbao's supply, at least at present.

This study investigates circulation types (CTs) in Africa, south of the equator, that are related to wet and dry conditions in Western Cape, the statistical relationship between the selected CTs and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and changes in the frequency of occurrence of the CTs related to the SAM under the ssp585 scenario. Obliquely rotated principal component analysis applied to sea level pressure was used to classify CTs in Africa, south of the equator. Three CTs were found to have a high probability to be associated with wet days in Western Cape, and four CTs were equally found to have a high probability to be associated with dry days in Western Cape. Generally, the dry/wet CTs feature the southward/northward track of the mid-latitude cyclone, adjacent to South Africa; anti-cyclonic/cyclonic relative vorticity, and poleward/equatorward track of westerlies, south of South Africa. One of the selected wet CTs is significantly related to variations of the SAM. Years with an above-average SAM index correlate with the below-average frequency of occurrence of the wet CT. The results suggest that through the dynamics of the CT, the SAM might control the rainfall variability of Western Cape. Under the ssp585 scenario, the analyzed climate models indicated a possibility in the decrease of the frequency of occurrence of the aforementioned wet CT associated with cyclonic activity at the mid-latitudes, and an increase in the frequency of occurrence of the CT associated with enhanced SLP in the mid-latitudes.

The growth of urban population, combined with an increase of extreme events due to climate changes call for a better understanding and representation of urban floods. Rainfall and infiltration are two important factors that affect the watershed response to a given precipitation event. In this paper, we evaluate the influence of the representation of infiltration and spatially variable rainfall on the computer simulation of the floods that affected the city of Hull, UK in June 2007. This work compares a uniform rainfall with one generated using Kriging with External Drift and a constant infiltration equal to the soil hydraulic conductivity with a neglected infiltration. The results of the four simulations are then compared with the flood extents observed by public authorities. It results that the computer model is able the reproduce the general dynamic of the flood and identify the main inundated areas. We found that neglecting the infiltration induce a better representation of this flood event. Furthermore, the use of radar rainfall results in an accuracy similar to the one obtained with a constant rainfall. This study indicates that when the spatial resolution of the rainfall data is low compared to the catchment size and the precipitation distribution is uniform, the spatial variability of the rainfall might not add significant information.

The rainfall study in the long term is essential for climatic change understanding and socioeconomic development. The main goal of this study is to explore the spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in different time scales (seasonal and annual) in Cameroon. The Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests were applied to analyze the precipitation variability. On temporal plan, the different regions of Cameroon have recorded significant drops in annual rainfall that Pet-titt's test generally situates around the 1970s. The decreases observed for the northern part of Cameroon regions are between –5.4% (Adamawa) and –7.4% (Far North). Those of west-ern part regions oscillate between –7.5% (South-West) and –12.5% (West). The southern part of Cameroon regions recorded decreases varying between –4.3% (East) and –5.9% (Center). On spatial plan, the divisions of the northern, western and southern parts of Cameroon respectively recorded after the 1970s (a pivotal period in the evolution of precipitation on temporal plan), a precipitation decrease towards the South, the South-West and the West. This study's findings could be helpful for planning and managing water resources in Cameroon.

Any change in the amount and annual distribution of rainfall causes a major socioeconomic and environmental problem where rainfed agriculture is predominant. For that reason, the objective of this study was to determine the long-term variability and trends of precipitation in the Wabi Shebele River Basin (WSRB), Ethiopia. The basin was discretized into 7 local agroclimatic zones (ACZ) based on annual rainfall and elevation. In this study, the coefficient of variation (CV) was used to check the variability of rainfall and modified Mann-Kendall (MK) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) methods were used to detect rainfall trends. For each ACZ, stations with long-term records and less than 10 % missing data were selected for further analysis. The mean annual rainfall in the basin ranges from 227.2 mm to 1047.4 mm. The study revealed most of the ACZs showed a very high variation in Belg/Spring season rainfall (CV % > 30) than Kiremt/Summer and annual rainfall. Trend analysis revealed that no uniform trend was detected among ACZs at each temporal scale. But, most ACZ in the arid and semi-arid areas showed a non-significant decreasing trend. In comparison, a similar result was observed using MK and ITA methods.

Floods and droughts are driven, in part, by spatial patterns of extreme rainfall. Heat waves are driven by spatial patterns of extreme temperature. It is therefore of interest to design statistical methodologies that allow the identification of likely patterns of extreme rain or temperature from observed historical data. The standard work-horse for identifying patterns of climate variability in historical data is Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and its variants. But PCA optimizes for variance not spatial extremes, and so there is no particular reason why the first PCA spatial pattern should identify, or even approximate, the types of patterns that may drive these phenomena, even if the linear assumptions underlying PCA are correct. We present an alternative pattern identification algorithm that makes the same linear assumptions as PCA, but which can be used to explicitly optimize for spatial extremes. We call the method Directional Component Analysis (DCA), since it involves introducing a preferred direction, or metric, such as `sum of all points in the spatial field'. We compare the first PCA and DCA spatial patterns for US rainfall anomalies on a 6 month timescale, using the sum metric for the definition of DCA in order to focus on total rainfall anomaly over the domain, and find that they are somewhat different. The definitions of PCA and DCA result in the first PCA spatial pattern having the larger explained variance of the two patterns, while the first DCA spatial pattern, when scaled appropriately, has a higher likelihood and greater total rainfall anomaly, and indeed is the pattern with the highest total rainfall anomaly for any given likelihood. In combination these two patterns yield more insight into rainfall variability and extremes than either pattern on its own.

Ethiopia has been known for its recurrent droughts and poverty due to extreme climate change and variability affecting agricultural production. This study was, therefore, conducted to analyze the seasonal and inter-annual variability in rainfall and temperature v over the past three decades in western Tigray. The study consisted of 34 years of temperature and rainfall data from nine stations in two administrative zones in the western part of Tigray. The climate data was obtained from the National Aeronautic Space Administration (NASA) from 1983 to 2016. Total rainfall, simple daily intensity index, Rx1day and Rx5day, and maximum and minimum temperature, tropical nights, diurnal temperature range, cold spell and warm spell duration indicator values, cold days and cold nights, warm days, and warm nights were analyzed. RClimDex software was employed to analyze the trends and quality control of the extreme rainfall and temperature indices; in addition, the Mann-Kendall test was also used to detect the changes and variability of the variables. The trend analysis showed that there was significant (p<0.05) variability in extreme temperatures, with maximum and minimum temperatures varying from 0.04 to 0.051 0C, and 0.022 to 0.031 0C, respectively. The results also revealed that there was a negative trend in extreme rainfall, with no uniform pattern. The highest and smallest reduction in the annual rainfall was 14.6 mm and 8.4 mm, which were observed at Maygaba and Adigoshu, respectively. More than 60% of the total rainfall was received in July and August throughout the study areas, with the maximum monthly rainfall of 294.2 mm observed at Adiremets. Finally, this study demonstrated that areas in the northwestern and western zones of Tigray were significantly affected by extreme rainfall and temperature variability, which subsequently affected crop yield, natural resources, food security, and the livelihood of the community during the last three decades.

Accurate rainfall measurement is vital when investigating spatial and temporal precipitation variability at different scales. However, there are many regions around the world, such as North Darfur State in Sudan, where ground-based observations are few. Satellite-based precipitation products can fill such regions' spatial and temporal rainfall data gaps. Six satellite rainfall prod-ucts, namely the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), African Rainfall Climatology Version 2 (ARC2.0), Climate Hazards Group In-frared Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS2.0), the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurements (GPM) Final Run v 6 (GPM IMERG6), Precipitation Estima-tion from Remote Sensing Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), and the Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT) v3.1 were evaluated to assess their accuracy in estimating rainfall amounts variability trends in the study area. The global-based satellite rainfall products were assessed at monthly and annual time scales by applying a point-to-pixel comparison with ground-based rain gauge data for the period 2000–2019. Based on the overall statistical results at monthly and temporal yearly scales, five satellite precipitation products (TMPA, CHIRPS, GPM IMERG6, PERSIANN-CDR, and TAMSATv3.1) overestimated rainfall amounts by values ranging from 1.49% to 82.69%. In contrast, the ARC2 product underestimated rainfall amounts by values ranging from-16.9% to-20.25%. The TAMSATv3.1, CHIRPS, and TMPA performed relatively better, showing stronger correlations and higher values of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. This study showed that the TAMSATv3.1 and CHIRPS products could reasonably estimate rainfall amounts in the North Darfur State.

Accurate and consistent rainfall observations are vital for climatological studies in support of better planning and decision making. However, estimation of accurate spatial rainfall is limited by sparse rain gauge distributions. Satellite rainfall products can thus potentially play a role in spatial rainfall estimation but their skill and uncertainties need to be under-stood across spatial-time scales. This study aimed at assessing the temporal and spatial performance of seven satellite products (TARCAT (Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT) African Rainfall Climatology And Time series), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM-3B43), Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Morphing (CMORPH), the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks- Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) using gridded (0.05o) rainfall data over East Africa for 15 years(1998-2012). The products’ error distributions were qualitatively compared with large scale horizontal winds (850 mb) and elevation patterns with respect to corresponding rain gauge data for each month during the ‘long’ (March-May) and ‘short’ (October-December) rainfall seasons. For validation only rainfall means extracted from 284 rain gauge stations were used, from which qualitative analysis using continuous statistics of Root Mean Squared Difference, Standard deviations, Correlations, coefficient of determinations (from scatter plots) were used to evaluate the products’ performance. Results revealed rainfall variability dependence on wind flows and modulated by topographic influences. The products’ errors showed seasonality and dependent on rainfall intensity and topography. Single sensor and coarse resolution products showed lowest performance on high ground areas. All the products showed low skills in retrieving rainfall during ‘short’ rainfall season when orographic processes were dominant. CHIRPS, CMORPH and TRMM performed well, with TRMM showing the best performance in both seasons. There is need to reduce products’ errors before applications.

The variability of ozone over Egypt has been studied in this work. Higher values of coefficient of variation (COV) at eight stations occur at winter while lowest values occur at summer. The COV is function of latitude in annual, winter and spring where it decreases gradually from the north to south of Egypt. The trend analysis of ozone over the eight stations indicates negative trends over northern stations for both annual and seasonal time series with the greatest one at winter. The horizontal distribution of ozone trend values is negative over all Egypt in winter while it positive over middle and south Egypt in the other seasons. The long-term variability of the behavior of the annual ozone shows positive trend values in ozone are the dominant features during the period 1979- 1989 at the most stations. Negative trend values in ozone are the dominant features during the period 1990- 2014 at all stations. The Mann–Kendall test confirms that there is an abrupt change towards decreasing of ozone occurs in 1981, 1984, 2012, 1999, 2000, 1998 and 2010, while a change towards increasing of ozone appears in 2006, 2014, 1993 and 1989.

Facing global warming consequences is a major issue of present times. For what concerns climate, projections say that heavy rainfalls are going to increase with high probability together with temperature rise, thus also the hazard related to rainfall induced shallow landslides will likely increase in density over susceptible territories. Different modeling approaches exist and any of them is forced to make simplifications in order to reproduce landslide occurrences over space and time. Process based models can help in quantifying the consequences of heavy rainfall on the different involved processes. In this paper, a narrative review about physically-based deterministic distributed models (PBDDMs) is presented. Models were selected based on: the adoption of the infinite slope scheme (ISS), the use of a deterministic approach (i.e., input and output are treated as absolute values), the inclusion of new approaches in modeling slope stability through the ISS. Models are presented in chronological order with the aim of drawing a timeline of the evolution of PBDDMs and to give researchers and practitioners a basic knowledge on how much has been already done. Results indicate that including vegetation effects on slope stability has raised in importance over time but that there is still the need of finding an efficient way to include them, and that in the last years the literature production seems to be more focused on probabilistic approaches.

Rain-fed maize production has significantly declined in Zimbabwe especially in semi-arid and arid areas causing food insecurity. Erratic rainfall received associated with mid-season dry spells largely contribute to low and variable maize yields. This study involved a survey of current farmers’ cropping practices, analyses of climatic data (daily rainfall and daily minimum and maximum temperature) of Hwedza station and simulation of maize yield response to climate change using DSSAT CERES crop growth simulation model. The climatic and maize yield data was analysed using mean correlation and regression analyses to establish relationships between rainfall characteristics and maize yield in the study area. Survey results showed that maize was the staple food grown by 100% of the farming households while 8.7% also grew sorghum. The survey concludes that 56.2% of the farmers grew short season varieties, 40.2% medium season varieties and 3.6% long season varieties. The result of the correlation analysis of climatic data and maize yield showed that number of rain days had strong positive relationship (r = 0.7) with maize yield. Non-significant yield differences (p > 0.05) between maize cultivar and planting date criteria were obtained. Highest yields were obtained under the combination of medium season maize cultivar and the DEPTH criterion in all simulations. The range of simulated district average yields of 0.4 t/ha to 1.8 t/ha formed the basis for the development of an operational decision support tool (cropping calendar).

Heavy rains result in significant threats to human health and life. Floods and other natural disasters, which have a global impact annually, can be attributed to extended periods of intense precipitation. Accurate rainfall prediction is crucial in nations such as Bangladesh, where agriculture is the predominant field of occupation. The efficiency of machine learning methods is enhanced by the nonlinearity of rainfall, surpassing the effectiveness of other approaches. This study proposes the novel combination of rainfall occurrence prediction, rainfall amount prediction, and daily average temperature prediction. This research implements machine learning techniques and an ensemble-based classifier to predict rainfall occurrence, as well as machine learning regressor models and an ensemble-based regressor to predict the rainfall amount and daily average temperature, using the Bangladesh Weather Dataset. The ensemble classifier demonstrated an accuracy of 83.41% and a recall of 78.17%, exhibiting the best performance in predicting when it will rain, but its precision was the lowest, at 51.16%. The ensemble regression model outperformed the base models, including linear regression, random forest, and support vector regression in rainfall amount prediction, with the lowest mean absolute error of 0.36 and root mean squared error of 0.90. Additionally, this model provided the most precise daily average temperature prediction results with the lowest mean absolute error of 0.42 and root mean squared error of 0.54, highlighting its superiority over the other regression models in forecasting temperature. Ensemble approaches consistently exhibit superior task performance metrics.

Channel bends are one of the most important characteristic features of natural streams. These bends often create the conditions for a hyporheic zone, which has been recognized as a critical component of stream ecosystems. The streambed vertical hydraulic conductivity (K_v), vertical hydraulic gradient (VHG) and Darcian flux (DF) in the hyporheic zone were estimated at 61 locations along a channel bend of the Beiluo River during July 2015 and January 2016. All the streambed attributes showed great spatial variability along the channel bend. Both upward fluxes and downward fluxes occurred during the two test periods, most of studied stream sections were controlled by downwelling, indicating stream water discharge into the subsurface. The average downward flux was higher at the downstream side than at the upstream side of the channel bend, especially in July 2015. The distribution of streambed sediment grain size has a significant influence on the variability of K_v; high percentages of silt and clay sediments generally lead to low K_v values. Higher K_v at the depositional left bank at the upstream site shifted toward the erosional right bank at the downstream site, with K_v values positively correlated with the water depth. This study suggested that the variabilities of K_v and VHG were influenced by the stream geomorphology and that the distribution of K_v was inversely related, to a certain extent, to the distribution of VHG across the channel bend. K_v and VHG were found to have opposite effects on the DF, and the close relationship between K_v and DF indicated that the water fluxes were mainly controlled by K_v.

We have defined M cycles as modified form of Gleissberg cycles to study the quasi-periodic secular changes in sunspot activity. Using direct and proxy observations for more than 1200 years we have provided evidence for the influence of the above M cyles on the monsoon rainfall variability and occurrences of major droughts in India. The solar cycle averages of All Indian summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) and probability of observation of below or above normal AISMR is found to show correlated variations with changes in amplitude of sunspot cycles during the years 1901-2018 AD. Major droughts in India show a preference to occur during minima and declining phases of the M cycles during the years 650-2018 AD . We could generally find low probability of occurrence of droughts in India during the medieval solar maximum epoch ( 1100-1250 AD) and during most of the prolonged sunspot minima periods including the Maunder minima. The evolution of mean Indian summer monsoon rainfall during 650-1900 AD is studied using proxy data from multiple sources with maxima during the 12^th century and minima during 14^th and 19^th centuries. The association of Indian droughts with El-Nino and the possibilities of long term prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability will be also discussed

Landslides are serious geological hazards that become a disaster worldwide, causing a large number of casualties and economic losses every year. There are many factors affecting landslide susceptibility, such as rainfall, soil and slope. Each of them has an important role in the process of slope losing stability. In this paper, the effects of rainfall intensity, rainfall pattern, slope gradient and soil type on landslide susceptibility are studied. In the process of rainfall-induced landslide, the relevant physical quantities of soil changes continuously. Their values and processes are closely related to the time of landslide occurrence. Hence, the variation of soil volumetric water content, matrix suction, pore water pressure and total stress throughout the rainfall are measured. As the results, soil type, slope gradient and rainfall intensity have a large influence on landslide susceptibility. The occurrence of landslides has a prerequisite that the slope is greater than or equal to 15°. The rainfall intensity needs to be not less than 80 mm/h. The difference of rainfall pattern also affects the landslide susceptibility. The rainfall pattern with rainfall intensity peak at the later stage is more likely to induce landslide. Coarser soils with gravels are prone to landslides when other conditions are the same. Steeper slopes, stronger rainfall, and coarser soils can all increase the amount of sediment yield.

The aim of this study was to examine the oxidation of human serum albumin (HSA) caused by oxidative stress after an exhaustive exercise such as ultra-marathon race. Thus, blood samples from 12 adult runners who underwent a 103 km mountain ultra-marathon race were collected pre- and 24, 48 and 72 h post race. HSA was partially purified using affinity chromatography and then was subjected to Western blot analysis for disulfide dimers determination, indicating oxidation. The results were correlated with those from a previous study in which the same samples were analyzed using different oxidative stress markers and a good correlation with protein carbonyls (PC) at all time points was observed. Moreover there was a significant correlation with static oxidation-reduction potential (sORP) at 24 h, and a negative correlation with capacity oxidation-reduction potential (cORP) at 24 and 48 h. In addition, an individual analysis of albumin dimers exhibited great inter-individual differences. This inter-individual variability in the oxidation of HSA may suggest different interventions (e.g. through diet) in order to confront the effects on athletes’ organism after a strenuous exercise. In conclusion, this study supported the importance of the assessment of albumin dimers as a predictive marker for exercise-induced oxidative stress.

The demonstration of compliance of rolling stock against disturbance limits for railway signaling, and in particular track circuits, is subject to a large deal of variability, caused by the diverse values of the electrical parameters of the railway line and resulting transfer functions, as well as operating conditions of rolling stock during tests. Instrumental uncertainty is evaluated with a Type B approach and shown to be much less than the experimental variability. Repeated test runs in acceleration, coasting, cruising, braking conditions are considered, deriving both max-hold (spread) and sample dispersion curves compared to the respective mean values (Type A approach to the evaluation of uncertainty). The major source of variability affecting a significant portion of the spectrum is caused by the superposed oscillations of the onboard LC filter, for which different choices of the transformation window duration are discussed. The test runs and the acquired data covered overall 1 day of tests along about 300 km of the Italian 3 kV DC railway network.

Ombrian curves, i.e. curves linking rainfall intensity to return period and time-scale, are well-established engineering tools, crucial to the design against storm waters and floods. Whereas at-site construction of such curves is considered a standard hydrological task, it is a rather challenging one when large regions are of interest. Regional modelling of ombrian curves is particularly complex due to the need to account for spatial dependence together with the increased variability of rainfall extremes in space. We develop a framework for the parsimonious modelling of the extreme rainfall properties at any point in a given area. This is achieved by assuming a common ombrian model structure except for a spatially varying scale parameter which is itself modelled by a spatial smoothing model for the 24 h average rainfall maxima that employs elevation as an additional explanatory variable. The fitting is performed on the pooled all-stations data using an advanced estimation procedure (K-moments) that allows both for reliable high-order moment estimation and simultaneous handling of space-dependence bias. The methodology is applied in the Thessaly region, a 13 700 km2 water district of Greece characterized by varying topography and hydrometeorological properties.

Very heavy stratiform precipitation (> 200 mm/per day) occurred in the Hokitika region on the west coast of the South Island of New Zealand on 18 June 2015, under north-westerlies with small CAPE (< 25 J/kg). Analyses of model simulations and observations showed that this heavy rainfall was due to cold front lifting enhanced by orographic lifting over the Southern Alps. At 1.5 km grid-length, the model terrain underestimated the average height of the 103 tallest mountains over the South Island by ~ 800 m. This leads to weaker orographic lifting and mountain blocking, and a faster-moving and stronger cold front in the Hokitika region. As a result, large errors in the heavy rainfall prediction occur. By increasing either the resolved or the sub-grid mountain heights, the simulated rainfall errors were largely reduced through stronger orographic lifting and mountain blocking, and a better simulation of the cold front movement and strength. All the experiments have the same “flow-over” regime with mountain waves and/or wave breaking (Fm ranges 0.61 – 1.21). However, the rainfall amount and distribution on the windward side of mountains altered significantly. Our new findings were that the Southern Alps can have significant indirect effects on heavy rainfall by altering the speed and strength of the cold front, in addition to the well-known direct dynamical effects (i.e., orographic lifting and mountain blocking). A combination of these direct and indirect effects makes the heavy rainfall simulation sensitive to mountain heights even under the same “flow-over” regime.

GR4J (Genie Rural a 4 parame`tres Journalier) is a rainfall-runoff model widely used to modelling rainfall into discharge. In this model, the input data used are daily rainfall and evapotranspiration data, calibrated using daily observed discharge data. This model seeks the optimum parameter value that produces the minimum deviation or error. The Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient and Relative Volume Error (RVE) are used to estimate the errors that occur. One of the modelling parameters, namely X4 (peak time), has a value that does not match the observed hydrograph peak time (Tp). For this reason, it is necessary to adjust the modelling equation so that the unit hydrograph of the model appropriately in terms of value and shape with observed unit hydrograph. This study examines ten watersheds in Java Island so that it is expected to represent catchment conditions in tropical areas and developing countries. A relationship was obtained between the difference peak time from modelling (X4) and observed Tp. Adjustments Formula can be made to the general GR4J modelling equation for unit hydrograph in Java Island watersheds.

The role of natural factors mainly solar eleven-year cycle variability, and volcanic eruptions on two major modes of climate variability the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are studied for around last 150 years period. The NAO is the primary factor to regulate Central England Temperature (CET) during winter throughout the period, though NAO is impacted differently by other factors in various time periods. Solar variability indicates a strong positive influence on NAO during 1978-1997, though suggests opposite in earlier period. Solar NAO lag relationship is also shown sensitive to the chosen times of reference and thus points towards the previously proposed mechanism/ relationship related to the sun and NAO. The ENSO is influenced strongly by solar variability and volcanic eruptions in certain periods. This study observes a strong negative association between the sun and ENSO before the 1950s, which is even opposite during the second half of 20th century. The period 1978-1997, when two strong eruptions coincided with active years of strong solar cycles, the ENSO, and volcano suggested a stronger association, and we discussed the important role played by ENSO. That period showed warming in central tropical Pacific while cooling in the North Atlantic with reference to the later period (1999-2017) and also from chosen earlier period. Here we show that the mean atmospheric state is important for understanding the connection between solar variability, the NAO and ENSO and associated mechanism. It presents a critical analysis to improve knowledge about major modes of variability and their role in climate. We also discussed the importance of detecting the robust signal of natural variability, mainly the sun.

The construction industry is a key driver of environmental change due to its extensive ‎use of resources and high levels of emissions, thus placing a significant burden on global ‎efforts towards sustainable development targets. A large portion of the environmental ‎footprint of buildings results from the energy required to sustain indoor comfort levels. ‎Therefore, enhancing the energy efficiency of existing buildings becomes critical in ‎reducing their environmental impact. This study examines the influence of increasing ‎thermal performance with the aim of reducing heating ‎demand. Thus, numerical modelling tools and different energy performance assessment meth-odologies have been used. ‎Specifically, it evaluates two existing residential buildings in Romania and compares ‎heating demand predictions using PHPP and Mc001-2022 methodologies across various ‎climatic data sets and case studies. The results reveal significant variability in heating ‎demand predictions, emphasizing the importance of methodological choice and climatic ‎data. The ‎study highlights that both PHPP and Mc001-2022 methodologies yield varying results ‎depending on the specific conditions and characteristics of each building. This variation in results underscores ‎the necessity for a nuanced and context-specific approach to energy performance ‎assessment, in-corporating multiple energy efficiency measures tailored to the unique ‎features of each building.

Most research on colostrum quality and colostrum management focuses on maternal IgG transfer to the newborn calf. However, in addition to being a source of antibodies, colostrum has other components that influence passive immune transfer, nutrition, gut maturation, and thermoregulation. In this review, the constituents in the bovine colostrum, as well as their variation, are explored and it is discussed the biological role of colostrum on the newborn calf. Protein is the nutrient in higher concentration and fat is the nutrient with the most variation. There is a pronounced amplitude in the total solids content of colostrum, but the average concentration does not vary much between studies (24.7%). Bovine colostrum major components can vary with several factors, such as the region, season, breed, dry period length, and nutritional aspects of the dam. Bioactive components, cells, and microbiome variability are less understood, besides IgG. Regardless, they play crucial distinct roles in the physiological development of the newborn. However, a multi-interactive effect between these components, cells, and microorganisms is more likely to occur. Recently researched components in colostrum like miRNA, nucleo(t)sides, the milk fat globule membrane, oligosaccharides, minor proteins, and the microbiome are examples of promising interest areas of study.

Several plant species produce mixtures of odorous and volatile compounds known as essential oils (EOs). These mixtures play important roles in nature and have been utilized by man for pharmaceutical and agrochemical purposes. There are more than 3000 EOs reported in the literature with approximately 300 having commercial use, including the oils from Eucalyptus species. Such oils are rich in monoterpenes and have found applications as pharmaceuticals, agrochemicals, food flavorants and in the perfume industry. Such applications are related to their diverse biological and organoleptic properties. In view of their importance, we review in this article up to date information concerning chemical composition and biological activities of essential oils from different species of Eucalyptus. Among the 900 species and subspecies of the Eucalyptus genus¸ we examined 68 species. The studies associated with these species were conducted in 27 countries. We have focused on the antimicrobial, acaricide, insecticide and herbicide activities, hoping that such information will contribute in the advances of the research in this field. It is also intended that the information herein described can be useful in the rationalization of the use of Eucalyptus EOs as components for new pharmaceutical and agrochemical applications as well as food preservatives and flavorants.

Background: Anxiety disorders can be both an independent risk factor of many somatic conditions and the cause of complications of various organic disorders leading to poor prognosis. Objectives: The purpose of this study is to compare the heart rate variability (HRV) recorded both during the day and at night in patients with anxiety disorders and healthy individuals. Methods: The study was conducted on fifty consecutive outpatients with anxiety disorders who participated in intensive group psychotherapy. The diagnosis was made according to DSM-IV-TR criteria using the PSE-10 questionnaire. Out of 50 patients under study, 17 were diagnosed with panic disorder (PD) and 21 with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). The control group consisted of 40 healthy people. The resulting three groups were compared in terms of circadian HRV using the Oxford Medilog Suprima Holter System. Results: The HRV analysis showed the nocturnal falls in the time and frequency parameters related to parasympathetic activity (rMSSD, pNN50, HF). The most unfavourable alterations were observed in the PD group, which comprised the disappearance of day vs. night amplitude of the majority of HRV parameters. Hence, the PD group was particularly susceptible to the arrhythmic events. It was noticeable that nocturnal vagotonia in the PD group was significantly lower as compared with the GAD and control group. Conclusions: The innovative aspect of the present study was to find a distinct profile of HRV with regard to the types of anxiety disorders because of the existing considerable differences between the nature of PD and GAD.

The impact of interaction SS with MJO on rainfall along Java Island to East Nusa Tenggara has been studied using daily rainfall observation data from 2140 weather observation stations, which are also equipped with GSMaP, OLR, and ERA5 data. There were 61 SS events found, 17 during active MJO and 44 in inactive MJO. Rainfall increases more in the western study area when the active MJO and more in the eastern study area when the inactive MJO is due to SS. SS reduces rainfall in the Jakarta region, regardless of the activity or inactivity of the MJO. SS causes extreme rainfall to only occur in a small part of certain areas, so it tends to significantly reduce the possibility of extreme rainfall. In the southern part of the IMC, SS predominates over MJO in supporting increased water vapor transport. Large-scale synoptic circulations like the monsoon, SS, and MJO can interact with local land-sea wind circulation to produce spatiotemporal variability in rainfall on Java Island. Rainfall mostly increases in the afternoon and decreases in the morning when SS occurs, whether there is MJO or not. Convective instability analysis indicates that SS increases precipitation, most likely by lowering CIN and raising VIMFC.

Sarcoglycanopathies are among the most frequent and severe autosomal recessive forms of limb-girdle muscular dystrophies /LGMD/ with childhood onset. Mutations in , , and sarcoglycan genes lead to various kinds of LGMD. We present the clinical variability of LGMD 2C/R5 among a genetically homogeneous group of 56 patients, belonging to 35 pedigrees. Molecular genetic analysis showed thаt all 57 patients were homozygous for C283Y variant. The muscles of the pelvic girdle and the trunk were early and more severely affected, followed by the the shoulder girdle. Macroglossia, hypertrophy of the calves, scapular winging and lumbar hyperlordosis were common in the ambulatory phase. A great variability in the clinical presentation of LGMD 2C/R5 was observed both intra and interfamilial, despite the same underlying molecular defect. Females demonstrated a relatively milder clinical course, compared to males. Mean CK levels were 20 times above normal values. Muscle CT of MRI showed earlier and more severe involvement of the flexor proximal limb muscles in comparison to the extensor ones.

Grain quality, cooking quality and nutritional quality traits are some of the major attributes that enhance uptake and utilisation of improved cowpea varieties. Therefore, there is need for a better understanding of the genetic variation and inter-relationships among these quality traits in cowpea to integrate them in cowpea breeding programs. The study was conducted to determine genetic variability among 306 cowpea genotypes for grain quality, cooking quality and nutritional quality traits and to understand the interrelationships among these traits for exploitation in breeding programs. The results showed highly significant differences (P

Abstract: Congenital hyperinsulinism (CHI) is a rare disorder of glucose metabolism and is the most common cause of severe and persistent hypoglycemia (hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemia, HH) in the neonatal period and childhood. Most cases are caused by mutations in the ABCC8 and KCNJ11 genes that encode the ATP-sensitive potassium channel (KATP). We present the correlation between genetic heterogeneity and the variable phenotype in patients with early-onset hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemia caused by ABCC8 gene mutations. In the first patients, which presented persistent severe hypoglycemia since the first day of life, molecular genetic testing revealed the presence of a homozygous mutation in the ABCC8 gene [deletion in the ABCC8 gene c.(2390+1_2391-1)_(3329+1_3330- 1)del] correlated with a diffuse form of hyperinsulinism (the parents being healthy heterozygous carriers). In the second patient, the onset was on the third day of life with severe hypoglycemia, and genetic testing identified a heterozygous mutation in the ABCC8 gene c.1792C&gt;T (p.Arg598*) inherited on the paternal line, which led to the diagnosis of focal form of hyperinsulinism. To locate the focal lesions, (18)F-DOPA (3,4-dihydroxy-6-[18F]fluoro-L-phenylalanine) PET/CT was recommended (an investigation that cannot be carried out in the country), but the parents refused to carry out the investigation abroad. In this case, early surgical treatment could have been curative. In addition, the second child also presented secondary adrenal insufficiency requiring replacement therapy. At the same time, she developed early recurrent seizures that required antiepileptic treatment. We emphasize the importance and of molecular genetic testing for diagnosis, management and genetic counseling in patients with HH.

Intermittent religious fasting increases a risk of hypo- and hyperglycemia in individuals with diabetes, but its impact in those without diabetes is poorly investigated. The study aim was to examine the effects of religious Bahá'í fasting (BF) on glycemic control and variability and compare these effects with time-restricted eating (TRE). In a three-arm randomized controlled trial, 16 subjects without diabetes were assigned to a BF, 16:8 TRE or control group. Continuous glucose monitoring and food intake documentation was conducted before and during the 19 days of intervention, and 24-hour mean glucose, glycemic variability indices, and glucotypes were assessed. BF and TRE groups, but not the control group, markedly reduced the daily eating window while maintaining macronutrient composition. Only the BF group decreased caloric intake (-677.8 ± 357.6 kcal, p=0.013), body weight (-1.92 ± 0.95 kg, p=0.011) and BMI (-0.65 ± 0.28 kg, p=0.006). Higher maximum glucose values were observed during BF in the within-group (+1.41 ± 1.04, p=0.039) and between-group comparison (BF vs. Control: p= 0.010 and TRE vs. BF: p= 0.022). However, there were no alterations of 24-hour mean glucose, intra- and inter-day glycemic variability indices, or glucotypes in any group. Proportions of time above and below range (70-180mg/dl) and HbA1c values remained unchanged. BF and TRE do not exhibit negative effects on glycemic control and variability in subjects without diabetes.

The growing concerns about floods have highlighted the need for accurate and detailed precipitation data as extreme precipitation occurrences can lead to catastrophic floods, resulting in significant economic losses and casualties. Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM-IMERG) is a commonly used high-resolution gridded precipitation dataset and is recognized as trustworthy alternative sources of precipitation data. The aim of this study is to comprehensively evaluate the performance of GPM IMERG Early (IMERG-E), Late (IMERG-L), and Run Final (IMERG-F) in precipitation estimation and their capability in detecting extreme rainfall indices over southwestern Iran during 2001-2020. The Asfezari gridded precipitation data which are developed using a dense of ground-based observation were utilized as the reference dataset. The findings indicate that the IMERG-F performs reasonably well in capturing many extreme precipitation events (defined by various indices). All the three products showed a better performance in capturing fixed and non-threshold precipitation indices across the study region. The findings also revealed that both IMERG-E and IMERG-L have problems in rainfall estimation over elevated areas showing values of overestimations. Examining the effect of land cover type on the accuracy of the precipitation products suggest that both IMERG-E and IMERG-L show large and highly unrealistic overestimations over inland water bodies and permanent wetlands. The results of the current study highlight the potential of IMERG-F as a valuable source of data for precipitation monitoring in the region.

The study focused on two climatic variables i.e. precipitation and stream flow for analysing change in trend of rainfall for the River Ssezibwa Catchment area and stream flow of River Ssezibwa. This Catchment is found in the districts of Mukono and Buikwe in Uganda. In this area agriculture is majorly dependent on rainfall and irrigation on a small scale. However, rainfall occurrence has become unpredictable over the past few years as result of the changes in patterns of weather. This has caused severe effects on the agricultural cropping system as well as caused negative effects on the natural water resources. Stream flow data of 57 years (1960 – 2017) and rainfall data for 35 years (1982 – 2017) on a daily basis was analysed to find out the trend and detect change point. Trend analysis was done by using the non-parametric analysis while the change point detection was carried out by using the Pettit test (1979).Magnitude of trend for the time series data was carried out using Sen’s Slope estimator and Mann – Kendall test was done to determine the trend. Results from the statistical analysis highlighted that; for stream flow the trend was generally positive and change point detected to be in the year 2000 while for rainfall data analysis indicated that the trend was predominantly negative and change point was in the year 1998.

Coronaviruses are a large family of diverse enveloped RNA viruses found in numerous animal species. They are well-known for their ability to cross species barriers and have been transmitted from bats or intermediate hosts to humans on several occasions. Four of the seven human coronaviruses (hCoVs) are responsible for approximately 20% of common colds (hCoV-229E, -NL63, -OC43, -HKU1). Two others (SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV) cause severe and frequently lethal respiratory syndromes but have only spread to very limited extents in human populations. In contrast, SARS-CoV-2, while exhibiting intermediate pathogenicity, has a profound impact on public health due to its enormous spread. In this review, we discuss which initial features of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein and subsequent adaptations to the new human host may have helped this pathogen to cause the COVID-19 pandemic. Our focus is on host forces driving changes in the Spike protein and their consequences for virus infectivity, pathogenicity, immune evasion and resistance to preventive or therapeutic agents. In addition, we discuss the significance and perspectives of broad-spectrum therapeutics and vaccines.

(1) Background: Heart rate variability (HRV) has emerged as a potential prognostic tool in cardiovascular diseases, offering individualized insights into autonomic nervous system activity. However, real-time HRV data during the acute phase of STEMI, particularly during percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), was not previously explored. (2) Methods: This single-center, observational cohort study included 104 STEMI patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). HRV parameters were measured using a wearable device (CE marked) during PCI, capturing dynamic responses. The association between HRV parameters and adverse outcomes, including in-hospital mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), were assessed. (3) Results: HRV parameters significantly decreased after myocardial revascularization, particularly SDNN, RMSSD, pNN50, HF, SD1, and SD2/SD1 ratio. Significant associations were found between reduced SD2/SD1 ratio, approximate entropy, and adverse outcomes, including increased in-hospital mortality and MACE. The SD2/SD1 ratio was significantly lower in patients who died during the hospital stay (p = 0.008) compared to survivors. Approximate entropy was also significantly lower in deceased patients (p = 0.019). (4) Conclusions: Real-time HRV monitoring using wearable technology offers valuable data regarding dynamic physiological changes during primary PCI. The integration of HRV into routine clinical practice, facilitated by wearable devices, could improve the risk stratification and event prediction in STEMI patients.

Philippines as an archipelago and tropical country, which is situated near the Pacific ocean, faces uncertain rainfall intensities. This makes environmental, agricultural and economic systems affected by precipitation difficult to manage. Time series analysis of Philippine rainfall pattern has been previously done, but there is no study investigating its probability distribution. Modeling the Philippine rainfall using probability distributions is essential, especially in managing risks and designing insurance products. Here, daily and cumulative rainfall data (January 1961 - August 2016) from 28 PAGASA weather stations are fitted to probability distributions. Moreover, the fitted distributions are examined for invariance under subsets of the rainfall data set. We observe that the Gamma distribution is a suitable fit for the daily up to the ten-day cumulative rainfall data. Our results can be used in agriculture, especially in forecasting claims in weather index-based insurance.

During an interdisciplinary study of the mire “Pod Małym Śnieżnikiem”, a very old specimen of the Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) was encountered. The aim of the present work was to perform a detailed examination of this tree, to compare it to other spruce trees on the mire, and to provide support for establishing protection for this tree stand. Tree-ring cores were sampled at 1.3 m above ground using Pressler borer, in two field campaigns: in June and July 2023, the latter campaign aiming to find the oldest trees. A total of 46 trees were sampled, yielding 84 measuring radii. Tree ring widths were measured down to 0.01 mm under a stereomicroscope. The oldest sampled tree yielded a total of 370 tree rings in the two radii, representing the period 1653–2022. The average tree ring width for TM15 equals 0.33 mm/year, and shows low values (on average 0.19 mm/year) for the period 1742–1943, i.e., during the Little Ice Age cooling. TM15 does not stand out from other trees from the population with respect to height or trunk diameter. A comparison of the age of this tree to the oldest spruce trees in Poland indicates that it is one of the longest living specimens of this species. Considering the natural character of the stand, the remaining flora and the peat-forming processes taking place within the mire “Pod Małym Śnieżnikiem”, we argue that the mire should become protected by the law as soon as possible in order to preserve this valuable high-mountain habitat.

The Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) on the Core GPM satellite provides spaceborne 3-dimensional observations of the precipitation field and surface rainfall rate with quasi global coverage. The present study evaluates the behavior of liquid precipitation intensity, radar reflectivity factor (ZKu and ZKa) and Drop Size Distribution (DSD) parameters (weighted mean diameter Dm and intercept parameter Nw) of the GPM DPR derived products version 07 from 2014 to 2023. Observations from seven Parsivel disdrometers located in different topographic zones in the Western Mediterranean are taken as ground reference. Four matching techniques between satellite estimates and ground level observations were tested, and best results were found for the so-called optimal comparison approach. Overall, GPM DPR products capture well the variability of the observed DSD at different rainfall intensities. However, overestimation of the mean Dm and underestimation of the mean Nw are observed, being much more sensitive to errors in drop diameters larger than 1.5 mm. Moreover, lowest errors were found for radar reflectivity factor and Dm, and highest for Nw and rainfall rate. In addition, the GPM DPR convective and stratiform classification was tested and it was found a substantial overestimation of stratiform cases compared to disdrometer observations.

With the use of linear regression modeling, this study sought to forecast and analyze rainfall patterns in Ethiopia. The dataset included historical rainfall data as well as pertinent independent variables. The R-squared score and mean squared error (MSE) were used to assess the effectiveness of the linear regression model. The results showed that the model's ability to forecast and analyze rainfall patterns was not very good. Only around 5.3% of the variance in rainfall could be explained by the chosen independent variables, according to the R-squared score of 0.053. This low number indicated that there was little correlation between the selected variables and rainfall, and that a sizable percentage of the variation in the dependent variable was not captured by the model. The model's accuracy in forecasting rainfall was shown to be quite low by the MSE error, with significant squared discrepancies between the expected and actual amounts. These results support the notion that the linear regression model as it is now designed is not appropriate for studying or forecasting Ethiopia's rainfall patterns. Alternative modeling approaches, the inclusion of other pertinent factors, and the assurance of the availability of high-quality data that faithfully captures the intricate dynamics of rainfall in the area all require more investigation.

The spatiotemporal variations of rainfall erosivity in the Hengduan Mountains, charac-terized by rugged terrain and high potential soil erosion risks, over the past 30 years was exam-ined. The changing trends of rainfall erosivity for 2025-2040 was also be investigated under the comprehensive scenario of moderate socio-economic development (SSP2-4.5) combined with me-dium-low radiative forcing, using four global climate models (GCMs) based on CMIP6. The results indicated that: (1) The annual distribution of rainfall erosivity in the Hengduan Mountains exhib-ited significant seasonal variations, with the order of erosivity being summer > autumn > spring > winter on a seasonal scale. (2) Over the past 30 years, there has been a slight decrease in annual precipitation and a slight increase in rainfall erosivity, with periodic extreme values occurring every 6-8 years. (3) Rainfall erosivity showed a decreasing gradient from southeast to northwest in terms of spatial distribution. There was a significant positive correlation between rainfall ero-sivity and precipitation, while a significant negative correlation existed with elevation in the ver-tical direction. Moreover, there was an increasing trend of rainfall erosivity in the northeastern part of the Hengduan Mountains and a decreasing trend in the southern region. (4) Under the joint driving forces of increased precipitation and erosive rainfall events, rainfall erosivity in the future is expected to significantly increase, posing a more severe risk of soil erosion in the Heng-duan Mountains.

Vehicle safety promises to be one of the Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) biggest benefits. Higher levels of automation remove the human driver from the chain of events that can lead to a crash. Sensors play an influential role in vehicle driving as well as in ADAS by helping the driver to watch the vehicle’s surroundings for safe driving. Thus, the driving load is drastically reduced from steering as well as accelerating and braking for long-term driving. The baseline for the development of future intelligent vehicles relies even more on the fusion of data from surrounding sensors such as Camera, Lidar and Radar. These sensors not only need to perceive in clear weather but also need to detect accurately adverse weather and illumination conditions. Otherwise, a small error could have an incalculable impact on ADAS. As most of the current study is based on indoor or static testing. In order to solve this problem, this paper designs a series of dynamic test cases with the help of outdoor rain and intelligent lightning simulation facilities to make the sensor application scenarios more realistic. As a result, the effect of rainfall and illumination on sensor perception performance is investigated. As speculated, the performance of all automotive sensors is degraded by adverse environmental factors, but their behaviour is not identical. Future work on sensor model development and sensor information fusion should therefore take this into account.

Solar and wind resources available for power generation are subject to variability due to meteorological factors. Here, we use a new global climate reanalysis product, Version 2 of the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2), to quantify interannual variability of monthly-mean solar and wind resource from 1980 to 2016 at a resolution of about 0.5 degrees. We find an average coefficient of variation (CV) of 11% for monthly-mean solar radiation and 8% for windspeed. Mean CVs were about 25% greater over ocean than over land, and, for land areas, were greatest at high latitude. The correlation between solar and wind anomalies was near zero in the global mean, but markedly positive or negative in some regions. Both wind and solar variability were correlated with values of climate modes such as the Southern Oscillation Index and Arctic Oscillation, with correlations in the Northern Hemisphere generally stronger during winter. We conclude that reanalysis solar and wind fields could be helpful in assessing variability in power generation due to interannual fluctuations in the wind and solar resource. Skillful prediction of these fluctuations seems to be possible, particularly for certain regions and seasons, given persistence or predictability of climate modes with which these fluctuations are associated.

When limited area models of the hydrodynamics of the atmosphere and of the ocean are 1 run over an extended time, variability unrelated to external "drivers" emerge - this variability is 2 colloquially named "hydrodynamical noise" or just "noise". This article summarises what we have 3 learned in the past few years about the properties of such noise, and the implications for numerical 4 experimentation and analysis. The presence of this noise can be identified easily in ensembles of 5 numerical simulations, and it turns out that the intensity of the noise is closely linked to the scale- 6 dependent "memory". At the system level, this "memory" term as given by Hasselmann’s Stochastic 7 Climate model plays a key role. In the case of marginal seas, the process of baroclinic instability 8 modulated by tides and the formation of seasonal thermoclines are significant aspects. Some more 9 general aspects are discussed, such as the applicability of the Stochastic Climate model to systems 10 outside of atmospheric and oceanic dynamics, the irreversibility of tipping points and the challenges 11 of detecting changes beyond a noise level and of the attribution of causes of change.

This study aims at providing a climatological analysis of annual and long-term variability of dry periods in the Polish Carpathians in the period of 35 years between 1986 and 2020. Aside days with precipitation, dry periods, namely sequences of days with no precipitation, constitute an inherent characteristic of the climate. The input data for the research was formed by daily precipitation totals from 17 meteorological stations acquired from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute, and T. Niedźwiedź catalogue of circulation types over southern Poland. Frequency of dry periods of different duration has been presented. The incidence of long-term periods has been related to the atmospheric circulation. An analysis was performed regarding the change of the average quantity and average length of dry sequences in the 35-year period covered. At most stations, there were no statistically significant trends with respect to the analysed dry day characteristics. This is an obvious result of high variability year-to-year, which means that exclusively large changes may achieve statistical significance. Dry days have been evidenced to related to circulation types. A vast majority of dry days is related to anti-cyclonal systems, particularly the anti-cyclonal wedge (Ka) and western anti-cyclonal (Wa) situations.

We have studied the stochastic processes A and B concerning fade durations due to rain, by simulating attenuation time series A(t) (dB) in the zenith paths of GeoSurf satellite constellations, at sites located in different climatic regions, with the Synthetic Storm Technique. Process B gives the statistics of outages (occurrences), process A gives the statistics of outage duration (fraction of time), for the same rain attenuation threshold A(t)&gt;S. The two processes are not independent, therefore, we have studied the relationship between their probabilities and defined a uniformity index 0&lt;U(S)≤1. U(S) is useful for comparing real cases – fade durations fragmented in many different intervals, with changing S and site – and the limiting case of all fades lasting the same time. As S increases, U(S) increases, approaching 1 at very large thresholds. These results should guide the designers of future GeoSurf satellite constellations to consider the impact of A(t) on the diverse communications services. Process B (occurrences) impacts on non–real time services, such as data delivery, more disturbed by the number of outages rather than by their duration. Process A (fraction of time) impacts on real–time services such as television, video conference etc., more disturbed by the duration of the outage.

Precipitation during 2001-2016 over the northern and central part of Tuscany was studied in order to characterize the rainfall regime. The dataset consisted of hourly cumulative rainfall series recorded by a network of 801 rain gauges. The territory was divided into 30x30 km square areas, the annual, seasonal and daily Average Cumulative Rainfall (ACR) in all areas was estimated along with its uncertainty. The trend analysis of ACR time series was performed by means of the Mann-Kendall test. Four climatic zones were identified: the north-western was the rainiest, followed by the north-eastern, north-central and south-central. An overall increase in precipitation was identified, more intense in the north-west, and determined mostly by the increase in winter precipitation. On the entire territory, the ACR, number of rainy days, mean precipitation intensity and sum of daily ACR in four intensity groups were evaluated at annual and seasonal scale. The main result was a magnitude of the ACR trend evaluated as 35 mm/year, due mainly to an increase in light and extreme precipitations. This result is in contrast with the decreasing rainfall detected in the past decades.

Gait variability (GV) is a crucial measure of inconsistency of muscular activities or body seg-mental movements during repeated tasks. Hence, GV might serve as a relevant and sensitive measure to quantify adjustments of walking control. However, has not been clarified whether GV is associated with walking speed to exploit effective better coordination level. Fourteen male stu-dents (age 22.4 ± 2.7 years, body mass 74.9 ± 6.8 kg, body height 1.78 ± 0.05 m) took part in this study. After three days of walking 1 km each day at a self-selected speed (SS) on asphalt with Apple Watch S. 7 (AppleTM), the participants were randomly evaluated on a treadmill at three different walking speed intensities for 10 minutes each one, at SS-20% / SS+20% of SS, with 5 minutes of passive recovery in-between. Heart rate (HR) was monitored beat-to beat and nor-malized as HR%MAX, while the rate of perceived exertion (RPE) (CR-10) was asked after each trial. Kinematic analysis was performed assessing the Contact Time (CT), Swing Time (ST), Stride Length (SL), Stride Cycle (SC) and Gait Variability as Phase Coordination Index (PCI). RPE and HR increased with higher walking speed (P = 0.005 and P = 0.035, respectively). CT and SC decreased as the speed increased (P = 0.0001 and P = 0.013, respectively), while ST remained un-changed (P = 0.277). SL increased with higher walking speed (P = 0.0001). Conversely, PCI was 3.81 ± 0.88 % (high variability) at 3.96 ± 0.47 km·h-1, 2.64 ± 0.75 % (low variability) at SS (4.94 ± 0.58 km·h-1), 3.36 ± 1.09 % (high variability) at 5.94 ± 0.70 km·h-1 (P = 0.001). These results indi-cate that while the metabolic demand and kinematics variables changing linearly with increasing speed, the most effective GV was observed at SS. Therefore, SS could be a new methodological approach to choose the individual walking speed, normalize the speed intensity, and avoid a gait pattern alteration.

The question whether a given set of test items can be considered “identical” is often addressed in terms of the homogeneity of the test material from which said items were taken. However, for some types of matrices – in particular, for matrices consisting of minute separate particles, only some of which carry the analyte under consideration – even in the case of homogenous test material, an irreducible source of variability between test items may remain: the fundamental variability. In this paper, the concept of fundamental variability is explained, and procedures for reducing and characterizing it are described.

We discuss what we believe could be an improvement in future discussions of the ever-changing brain. We do so by distinguishing different types of brain variability and outlining methods suitable to analyse them. We argue that, when studying brain and behaviour data, classical methods such as regression analysis and more advanced approaches both aim to decompose the total variance into sensible variance components. In parallel, we argue that a distinction needs to be made between innate and acquired brain variability. For varying high-dimensional brain data, we present methods useful to extract their low-dimensional representations. Finally, to trace potential causes and predict plausible consequences of brain variability, we discuss how to combine statistical principles and neurobiological insights to make associative, explanatory, predictive, and causal enquires; but cautions are needed to raise association- or prediction-based neurobiological findings to causal claims.

This article shortly introduces Gaussian processes as a new approach for modelling time series in the field of blazar physics. In the second part of the paper, recent results from an application of GP modelling to the multi-wavelength light curves of the blazar PKS 1502+106 are discussed.

Accurate Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) is fundamental for a large number of hydrometeorological applications, especially when addressing extreme rainfall phenomena. This paper presents a comprehensive comparison of various rainfall estimation methods, specifically those relying on weather radar data, rain gauge data, and their fusion. The study evaluates the accuracy and reliability of each method in estimating rainfall for a severe event that occurred in Tuscany, Italy. The obtained results indicate that merging radar and rain gauge data outperform both individual approaches by reducing errors and improving the overall reliability of precipitation estimates. The study highlights the importance of data fusion in enhancing the accuracy of QPE and also supports its application in operational contexts, providing evidence for the greater reliability of merging methods

Cassava brown streak disease (CBSD) threatens cassava production in sub-Saharan Africa despite the availability of resistant varieties since extreme environmental factors weakens plant defenses hence reduce CBSD resistance. This study examined the inheritance of CBSD in cassava populations, assessed genetic variability and identified superior sources of resistance through F1, S1 and half-sib offspring of populations derived from resistant sources. The offsprings underwent field evaluation at two distinct sites from 2019 to 2021, and the symptoms free genotypes were analyzed using reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). Resistance to CBSD was categorized as most resistant, resistant, most tolerant and tolerant based on symptoms and virus titer. The findings of the study indicate that the resistance to Cassava Brown Streak Disease (CBSD) is highly influenced by genotypes, F1/S1 types, and environmental conditions. The analysis of combining abilities revealed significant general combining abilities (GCA) for CBSD, cassava mosaic disease (CMD), and traits associated with yield. The heritability estimates for resistance to CBSD varied between 43.4% to 63.2% for foliar symptoms and 14.6% to 57.9% for root necrosis across locations. The inheritance pattern involved a combination of additive and recessive genes and selfed (S1) populations displayed stronger and effective resistance to the disease. There was a high prevalence of cassava brown streak virus (CBSV) and a low prevalence of Ugandan cassava brown streak virus (UCBSV). Four genotypes were identified to be highly resistant to Cassava Brown Streak Disease (CBSD) that could be used as key sources of resistance to CBSD.

Abrus precatorius is a medicinal herb originated from Southeast Asia and native to India. The Hindustani centre of origin was found to possess lot of variability especially with respect to seed color. However, no previous researchers have focused on studying the variability by including the entire variability of the region. A total of 99 accessions were analyzed for its biochemical components like moisture content, total phenols, antioxidants, ash content, protein content, total monomeric anthocyanin and flavonols. Principal component analysis (PCA) shown that first three components viz., seed color, phenols and antioxidants are major principal components that contribute to 80.86% of total variability in the germplasm. The dendrogram constructed based on the biochemical data and by using the software Darwin version 6.0. formed three main clusters i.e. cluster 1, cluster 2 and cluster 3 which contain 55 accessions, 40 accessions and 1 accession respectively. Seed color was found to be the main criteria based on which the Abrus accessions were grouped. Accessions from different clusters also differ for their mean phytochemical constituents. Germplasm curators / plant breeders can select such elite genotypes and utilize them in crop improvement programmes.

Intense rainfall events frequently occur in Brazil, often leading to rapid flooding. Despite their recurrence, there is a notable lack of sub-daily studies in the country. This research aims to assess patterns related to the structure and microphysics of clouds driving intense rainfall in Brazil, resulting in high accumulations within 1 hour. Employing a 40 mm/h threshold and validation criteria, 83 events were selected for study, observed by both single and dual-polarization radars. Contoured Frequency by Altitude Diagrams (CFADs) of reflectivity, Vertical Integrated Liquid (VIL), and Vertical Integrated Ice (VII) are employed to scrutinize the vertical cloud characteristics in each region. To address limitations arising from the absence of polarimetric coverage in some events, three case studies focusing on polarimetric variables are included. A fourth case study enhances the overall understanding of these events, emphasizing the underexplored nature of short-term intense rainfall studies in Brazil. Results reveal that the generating system significantly influences the rainfall pattern, especially in the Southern, Southeastern, and Central-Western regions. Regional CFADs unveil primary convective columns with 40-50 dBZ reflectivity, extending to approximately 6 km. The microphysical analysis highlights the rapid structural intensification, challenging the event predictability and the issuance of timely specific warnings.

This study proposes a new algorithm termed rain cell identification and tracking (RCIT) to identify and track rain cells from high resolution weather radar data. Previous algorithms have limitations when tracking non-consequent rain cells owing to their use of maximum correlation coefficient methods and their lack of an alternative way to handle the variation stages of rain cells during their life cycles. To address these deficiencies, various methods are implemented in the new algorithm. These include the particle image velocimetry (PIV) method for motion estimation and the rain cell matching rule to obtain the stage changes of rain cells. High resolution (5-min and 1-km) radar reflectivity data from three rainy days over the German federal state North Rhine Westphalia (NRW) are used to evaluate the proposed algorithm. The performance of the new algorithm is compared with a radar reflectivity map and verified by two object-oriented methods: structure–amplitude–location (SAL) and geometric index. The verification results suggest that the performance of the new algorithm is good. Application of the RCIT algorithm to the selected cases shows that the inner structure of rainfall events in the experimental region present extreme value distributions, with most rainfall events having a short duration with less intensity. The new algorithm can effectively capture the stage changes of rain cells during their life cycles. The proposed algorithm can serve as the basis for further hydro-meteorological applications such as spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall events and short-term flood forecasting.

Antibiotic resistance is a persistent and growing concern. Our objective was to analyze antibiotic prescribing in the United States (US) in the Medical Expenditure Panel System (MEPS) and to Medicaid patients. We obtained total MEPS prescriptions for eight antibiotics from 2013 to 2020. We extracted prescribing rates per 1,000 Medicaid enrollees for two years, 2018 and 2019, for four broad spectrum (azithromycin, ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, and moxifloxacin) and four narrow spectrum (amoxicillin, cephalexin, doxycycline, and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole) antibiotics. Antibiotics in MEPS decreased from 2013 to 2020 by -38.7% with a larger decline for broad (-53.7%) than narrow (-23.5%) spectrum. Antibiotic prescriptions in Medicaid decreased by -6.7%. Amoxicillin was the predominant antibiotic followed by azithromycin, cephalexin, trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole, doxycycline, ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, and moxifloxacin. Substantial geographic variation in antibiotic prescribing existed with 2.8-fold between the highest (Kentucky = 855/1,000) and lowest (Oregon = 299) states. The South prescribed 52.2% more antibiotics (580/1,000) than the West (381/1,000). There were significant correlations across states in antibiotic prescribing. This study identified sizable disparities by geography in prescribing rates of eight antibiotics with over three-fold state level differences. Areas with high antibiotic prescribing rates, particularly for outpatients, may benefit from stewardship programs to reduce potentially unnecessary prescribing.

In this work, an embroidered textile moisture sensor is presented. The sensor is based on a capacitive interdigitated structure embroidered on a cotton substrate with an embroidery conductor yarn composed by 99% pure silver plated nylon yarn 140/17 dtex. In order to evaluate the sensor sensitivity, the impedance of the sensor has been measured by means of a LCR meter from 20 Hz to 20 kHz on a climatic chamber with a sweep of the relative humidity from 25% to 65% at 20 ºC. The experimental results show a clear and controllable dependence of the sensor impedance with the relative humidity. Moreover, the reproducibility of the sensor performance subject to the manufacturing process variability and washing process is also evaluated. The results show that the manufacturing variability introduce a moisture measurement error up to 4%. The washing process impact on the sensor behavior after applying the first washing cycle implies a sensitivity reduction higher than 14%. Despite these effect, the textile sensor keeps its functionality and can be reused in standard conditions. Therefore, these properties point out the usefulness of the proposed sensor to develop wearable applications on health and fitness scope including the user needs to have a life cycle longer than one-time use

In Shark Bay, a large hypersaline bay in Western Australia, longitudinal density gradients force gravitational circulation that is important for Bay-ocean exchange. Observations of vertical stratification and velocity are presented, confirming a steady near-bed dense water outflow from Shark Bay’s northern Geographe Channel that persisted through all stages of the tide. Outflow velocities were 2–3 times stronger than the outflows recorded previously in Naturaliste Channel (in the west) and were more resistant to breakdown by tidal mixing. Estimates of turbulent kinetic energy production derived from ADCP data using the variance method showed a more complex structure in Geographe Channel, due to shear associated with the stratified conditions, with peak levels of turbulence occurring during reversal of tidal flows. For both channels the main source of turbulence was tidal flow along the seabed, with the bottom current speed cubed, |U_b³|, providing a reasonable proxy for tidal mixing and prediction of dense water outflows from Shark Bay the majority of the time. Orientation and deeper water of Geographe Channel along the main axis of the longitudinal density gradient provided an explanation for the predominant outflow from the Bay’s northern entrance. These density-driven currents could potentially influence recruitment of commercially fished scallops and prawns through dispersal and flushing of larvae.

Hydrological processes are complex to compute on hilly areas when compared to the plain areas. Most of the hydrological model do not take into account the critical rainfall-runoff generation processes such as subsurface storm flow, saturation excess flow, overland flow, return flow and pipe storage. The simulations of the above processes in the soil matrix requires detailed hillslope hydrological modelling. In present study, a hillslope experimental plot is designed to study the runoff generation processes on the plot scale. The setup is designed keeping in view the natural hillslope conditions prevailing in the north western Himalayas, India where high intensity storm event occurs frequently. Using the experimental data and the developed conceptual model, the overland flow and the subsurface flow through macropore dominated area has been estimated/analyzed on the pixel basis. Over the experimental hillslope plot, a rainfall simulator was installed to generate the rainfall intensity in the range of 15 to 150 mm/hr which represented the dominating rainfall intensity range in the region. Soil moisture sensors were also installed at 100 mm and 300 mm depth at different locations of the plot to observe soil moisture variations. It was found that once the soil is saturated, it remains in the field capacity for next 24-36 hours. Such antecedent moisture conditions are most favorable for the generation of rapid stormflow from hillslopes. Dye infiltration test was also performed on the undisturbed soil column to observe the macropore fraction variability over the vegetated hillslopes. The surface runoff predicted using the developed hillslope hydrological model compared well with the observed surface runoff under high intensity rainfall conditions.

We present a study of the radio variability of bright, $S_{1.4}\geq100$ mJy, high-redshift quasars at $z\geq3$ on timescales up to 30--40 years. The study involved simultaneous RATAN-600 measurements at frequencies of 2.3, 4.7, 8.2, 11.2, and 22.3 GHz in 2017--2020. In addition, data from the literature were used. We have found that the variability index $V_S$ of the quasars ranges from 0.02 to 0.96, with about half of the objects in the sample showing a variability index in the range of 0.25--0.50, which is comparable to that of the blazars at lower redshifts. The distribution of $V_S$ at 22.3 GHz is significantly different from that at 2.3--11.2 GHz, which may be attributed to the fact that a compact AGN core dominates at the source's rest frame frequencies greater than 45 GHz, leading to higher variability indices obtained at 22.3 GHz (the $V_S$ distribution peaks around 0.4) compared to the lower frequencies (the $V_S$ distribution peaks around 0.1--0.2). Several source groups with distinctive variability characteristics were found using cluster analysis of quasars. We propose 7 new candidates for gigahertz peaked-spectrum (GPS) sources and 5 new megahertz peaked-spectrum (MPS) sources based on their spectrum shape and variability features. Only 6 out of 23 sources previously reported as GPS demonstrate a low variability level typical of classical GPS sources ($V_{S} < 0.25$) at 4.7--22.3~GHz. When excluding the highly variable peaked-spectrum blazars, we expect no more than 20\% of the sources in the sample to be GPS candidates and no more than 10\% to be MPS candidates.

We present a method to study the interannual variability of the annual cycle. The method consists of first determining the amplitude and phase of segments of 12 monthly means at all spatial points, resulting in one complex number per grid point and per year. The complex fields, once per year, are then subject to a complex EOF (CEOF) analysis. We consider as an example the barotropic stream function in the South China Sea as simulated with an ocean general circulation model across 6 decades of years, driven my realistic (NCEP) weather forcing. We find 3 to 4 to “significant” CEOFs, which account for about 53 to 62% of variance. These CEOFs go with large-scale patterns. Their time coefficients are mostly stationary, but point to some inhomogeneities related to instationarities in the forcing. In particular, the simulation since 1950-1958 deviates from the remainder of the simulation. The first CEOF describes variations in the center of the South China Sea. Its principal component describes a systematic, albeit noisy shift by almost 180o from 1960 to about the year 2000. When overlaid the long-term mean annual mean, the overall change consists of an amplification of the annual cycle in the 1960s and 1990s, whereas In the 1970s, the amplitude was reduced. Phase shifts in the anomaly (given by the CEOFs) have a small effect, because of the dominance of the mean annual cycle. These variations are not related to ENSO variability but may origin in variations of the Southeast monsoon. The second EOF represents strong changes, both in terms of intensity and phase, in the Luzon strait.

Sesame (Sesamum indicum), a highly valued oilseed, faces challenges in cultivation, especially in regions susceptible to environmental stressors. This study investigates the interactive effects of salinity and temperature on sesame seed germination. Two cultivars, Darab 1 and Oltan, were subjected to various salinity levels (-3 to -12 bars) and temperatures (15°C, 20°C, and 25°C). Results revealed that at 15°C, salinity levels beyond -3 bars significantly reduced germination, while at 25°C, 40% and 62% germination rates were recorded even at -12 bars for Darab 1 and Oltan, respectively. The study highlights the importance of temperature in mitigating the inhibitory effects of salinity on germination. Germination speed exhibited a decline with increasing salinity, particularly at lower temperatures. Shoot and root lengths and dry weights decreased with rising salinity, but Oltan demonstrated greater tolerance than Darab 1. The research emphasises the species-specific nature of temperature-salinity interactions and the intraspecific variability among sesame cultivars. Notably, Oltan, adapted to arid regions with elevated temperatures, displayed increased tolerance to salinity stress. The findings contribute to understanding sesame's resilience to environmental stressors, aiding in developing resilient cultivars for challenging agricultural landscapes. Overall, temperature is pivotal in influencing sesame seed germination and early seedling growth under salinity stress, offering insights for optimised cultivation practices.

Following the central dogma of molecular biology, gene expression variability can aid in predicting and explaining the wide variety of protein products, functions, and, ultimately, variability in phenotypes. There is currently overlapping terminology used to describe the types of variability in gene expression profiles, and overlooking these nuances can misrepresent important biological information. Here, we describe transcriptional diversity as quantifying transcriptional changes as a measure of the variability in 1) the total expression of all genes or a gene across samples (transcriptome diversity) or 2) the isoform-specific expression of a given gene (isoform diversity). We first overview modulators and quantification of gene expression variability. Then, we discuss the role alternative splicing plays in driving transcript isoform expression variability and how isoform diversity can be quantified. Additionally, we overview computational resources for calculating transcriptome and isoform diversity for short- and long-read sequencing data. Finally, we discuss future applications of transcriptional diversity. This review provides a comprehensive overview of how gene expression variability arises, and how measuring it determines a more complete picture of heterogeneity across proteins, cells, tissues, organisms, and species

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) challenges include understanding what triggered SARS-CoV-2 emergence, how this RNA virus is evolving or how the genomic variability may impact the primary structure of proteins that are targets for vaccine. We analyzed 19471 SARS-CoV-2 genomes and 199,984 spike glycoprotein sequences available at the GISAID database from all over the world and 3335 genomes of other Coronoviridae family members available at Genbank, collecting SARS-CoV-2 high-quality genomes and distinct Coronoviridae family genomes. Here, we identify a SARS-CoV-2 emerging cluster containing 13 closely related genomes isolated from bat and pangolin that showed evidence of recombination, which may have contributed to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. The analyzed SARS-CoV-2 genomes presented 9632 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) corresponding to a variant density of 0.3 over the genome, and a clear geographic distribution. SNPs are unevenly distributed throughout the genome and hotspots for mutations were found for the spike gene and ORF 1ab. We describe a set of predicted spike protein epitopes whose variability is negligible. All predicted epitopes for the structural E, M and N proteins are highly conserved. This result favors the continuous efficacy of the available vaccines.

Dengue hemorrhagic fever is an arboviral infectious disease that has occurred frequently as an extraordinary event due to its fast spread and lethal potential in Indonesia. The vector Aedes aegypti is sensitive to climate variability. This study determines the relationship between climate variability and dengue hemorrhagic fever in Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia from 2009 to 2017. This study used the monthly dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence obtained from the Surabaya Health Office and the monthly climate variability parameters (average temperature, rainfall, humidity) obtained from the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics and website www.worldweatheronline.com. Data analysis was done using One-Sample Kolmogorov Smirnov Test and Spearman non-parametric correlation test. The results showed a correlation between all three climate variability parameters with dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence (average temperature p<0.05, r=-0.603; rainfall p<0.05, r=0.407; humidity p<0.05, r=0.7). Average temperature is negatively correlated to dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence, while rainfall and humidity are positively correlated to dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence. This study shows preliminary evidence on the correlation of climate variability and dengue hemorrhagic fever in Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia.

Dengue hemorrhagic fever is an arboviral infectious disease that has occurred frequently as an extraordinary event due to its fast spread and lethal potential in Indonesia. The vector Aedes aegypti is sensitive to climate variability. This study determines the relationship between climate variability and dengue hemorrhagic fever in Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia from 2009 to 2017. This study used the monthly dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence obtained from the Surabaya Health Office and the monthly climate variability parameters (average temperature, rainfall, humidity) obtained from the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics and website www.worldweatheronline.com. Data analysis was done using One-Sample Kolmogorov Smirnov Test and Spearman non-parametric correlation test. The results showed a correlation between all three climate variability parameters with dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence (average temperature p<0.05, r=-0.603; rainfall p<0.05, r=0.407; humidity p<0.05, r=0.7). Average temperature is negatively correlated to dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence, while rainfall and humidity are positively correlated to dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence. This study shows preliminary evidence on the correlation of climate variability and dengue hemorrhagic fever in Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia.

Advances in remote sensing have led to use of satellite-derived rainfall products to complement the sparse rain gauge data. Although globally derived and some regional bias corrected, these products often show large discrepancies with ground measurements attributed to local and external factors that require systematic consideration. Decreasing rain gauge network however inhibits continuous validation of these products. We propose to deal with this problem by the use of Bayesian approach to merge the existing historical rain gauge information to create a consistent satellite rainfall data that can be used for climate studies. Monthly Bayesian bias correction is applied to the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS v2) data to reduce systematic errors using a corresponding gridded (0.05°) rain gauge data over East Africa for a period of 33 (1981–2013) years of which 22 years are utilized to derive error fields which are then applied to an independent CHIRPS data for 11 years for validation. The bias correction is spatially and temporally assessed during the rainfall wet months of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and October–December (OND) in East Africa. Results show significant reduction of systematic errors at both monthly and yearly scales and harmonization of their cumulative distributions. Monthly statistics showed a reduction of RMSD (29–56)% and MAE (28–60)% and an increase of correlations (2–32) %, while yearly ones showed reductions of RMSD (9-23)%, and MAE (7–27)% and increase of correlations (4–77)% for MAM months, reduction of RMSD (15–35)% and MAE (16–41)% and increase in correlations (5–16)% for JJA months, and reduction of RMSD (3–35)% and MAE (9–32)% and increase of correlations (3–65)% for OND months. Systematic errors of corrected data were influenced by local processes especially over Lake Victoria and high elevated areas. Large-scale circulations induced errors were mainly during JJA and OND rainfall seasons and were reduced by the separation of anomalous years during training. The proposed approach is recommended for generating long-term data for climate studies where consistencies of errors can be assumed.

Variability is the predisposition of phenomena to assume different values over time. Variability is higher when the differences of cases from each other are larger or diverge from a specific value, such as arithmetic mean. This study focuses on the variability of research topics within and between research fields to explain, whenever possible, how the variability shapes the structure and dynamics of technological trajectories. Analysis of variability here applies the entropy and variance decomposition on main research fields in quantum technologies. Empirical evidence shows that variability in research topics is inversely proportional to the age of research fields. Inductive implications are that higher variability in research topics of recent scientific fields is due to uncertain dynamics that generates a heterogeneity of different technological trajectories some of them can growth and develop towards fruitful directions others can be dismissed. Hence the variability seems to be one of the drivers that shapes technological evolution and can provide policy and managerial implications to improve the scientific and technological forecasting that may support appropriate decisions of R&D investments towards promising research fields and technologies.

A proposed interpretation of the characteristics and causes of the variation in science dynamics for technological evolution is described. The theoretical approach focuses on variability in research topics that guide scientific and technological evolution. Statistical method verifies the proposed approach by applying entropy, measures of dispersion and variance decomposition. The statistical evidence, using data of four main research fields in quantum technologies, suggests the following empirical properties: a) the growth of heterogeneity in research topics is inversely proportional to the age of research fields: recent research fields have a higher variability between topics with uncertainty in evolutionary dynamics, whereas older research fields have a lower variability and more concentration in specific research topics with stable evolution towards clear directions; b) the nature of research fields has a systematic effects in variability guiding the evolution of technologies. The theoretical approach and findings clarify main characteristics and causes of the evolution of science and technologies considering the underlying homogeneity or heterogeneity in research topics, providing main implications to improve the scientific and technological forecasting that may support appropriate R&amp;D investments towards promising research fields and technologies

This manuscript describes the construction and validation of high resolution daily gridded (0.05° × 0.05°) rainfall and maximum and minimum temperature data for Bangladesh : the Enhancing National Climate Services for Bangladesh Meteorological Department (ENACTS-BMD) dataset. The dataset was generated by merging data from weather stations, satellite products (for rainfall) and reanalysis (for temperature). ENACTS-BMD is the first high-resolution gridded surface meteorological dataset developed specifically for studies of surface climate processes in Bangladesh. Its record begins in January 1981 and is updated in real-time monthly and outputs have daily, decadal and monthly time resolution. The Climate Data Tools (CDT), developed by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, is used to generate the dataset. This data processing includes the collection of weather and gridded data, quality control of stations data, downscaling of the reanalysis for temperature, bias correction of both satellite rainfall and downscaled reanalysis of temperature, and the combination of station and bias-corrected gridded data. The ENACTS-BMD dataset is available as an open-access product at BMD’s official website, allowing the enhancement of the provision of services, overcoming the challenges of data quality, availability, and access, promoting at the same time the engagement and use by stakeholders.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the causes of cost variation in natural disaster prevention projects (NDPP) in Gyeongsangbuk-do and to develop effective cost and risk management strategies. The study collected data by conducting an online survey of 244 stakeholders. Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the impact of various variables on cost deviation, in-cluding project management risk (PMR), project costing and execution risk (PCER), project exe-cution strategy risk (PESR), construction project risk (CPR), project cost and schedule risk (PCSR), project management challenges (PMC), and construction project subcontractor and safety man-agement (CPSSM). The results showed that PMR (OR=3.744, 95% C.I. [1.657, 8.457]), PCER (OR=5.068, 95% C.I. [2.236, 11.484]), PESR (OR=3.447, 95% C.I. [1. 853, 6.413]), CPR (OR=2.292, 95% C.I. [1.020, 5.151]), PCSR (OR=4.817, 95% C.I. [2.250, 10.317]), PMC (OR=2.954, 95% C.I. [1.452, 6. 013]), and CPSSM (OR=2.419, 95% C.I. [1.297, 4.515]) had statistically significant effects on cost deviation. In particular, PMR, PCER, and PESR were identified as the main causes, and the effects of additional factors such as CPSSM were also important. The developed predictive model plays an important role in helping stakeholders of NDPP to manage risks in advance and take appro-priate preventive measures to ensure the success of the project. This study empirically supports the theoretical hypotheses of previous studies and provides a clear understanding of the causes of cost deviation in NDPP, which provides important insights for strategic decision-making and provides a new perspective on risk management.

The mass composition of Particulate Matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 microns (PM2.5) in San Joaquin Valley (SJV) is dominated by ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3) which is a secondary pollutant. The goal of this research was the investigation of the relationship between emissions, meteorology and PM2.5 concentrations in Fresno for the winter season. It was found that the location of sites near emission sources such as freeways compared with residential sites strongly affected measured PM2.5 concentrations. It was found that although long-term trends showed declines in both emissions and PM2.5 concentrations there was substantial variability between the years in the PM2.5/emissions relationship. Much of the yearly variation in the relationship between emissions and PM2.5 concentrations can be attributed to yearly variations in weather, such as atmospheric stability, precipitation frequency and average wind speed. There are moderate correlations between PM2.5 concentrations and temperature differences between nearby surface stations at varying elevations which explains some of the daily and seasonal variation in PM2.5. Occurrence of precipitation was related to low PM¬2.5 although the higher wind speeds and lower atmospheric stability associated with precipitation likely explain some of the low PM2.5 as well as washout of PM.

Forest healing effects are increasingly valued for their contribution to human psychological and physiological health, motivating further advances aimed at improving the knowledge of the relevant forest resources. Biogenic volatile organic compounds, emitted by the plants and accumulating in the forest atmosphere, are essential contributors to the forest healing effects, and represent the focus of this study. Using a photoionization detector, we investigated the high frequency variability, in time and space, of the concentration of total volatile organic compounds, on a hilly site, as well as along forest paths and long hiking trails on Italian northern Apennines. The scale of concentration variability was found to be comparable to absolute concentration levels, within time scales of less than one hour, and spatial scales of several hundred meters. During daylight hours, the concentration peaked from noon to early afternoon, followed by early morning, with lowest levels in late afternoon. Based on a conceptual model, these results were related to meteorological variables, including the atmospheric vertical stability profile. Moreover, preliminary evidence pointed to higher concentration of volatile organic compounds in forests dominated by conifer trees, in comparison with pure beech forests.

The use of machine learning techniques in predictive health care is on the rise with minimal data used for training machine-learning models to derive high accuracy predictions. In this paper, we propose such a system, which utilizes Heart Rate Variability (HRV) as features for training machine learning models. This paper further benchmarks the usefulness of HRV as features calculated from basic heart-rate data using a window shifting method. The benchmarking has been conducted using different machine-learning classifiers such as artificial neural network, decision tree, k-nearest neighbour and naive bays classifier. Empirical results using MIT-BIH Arrhythmia database shows that the proposed system can be used for highly efficient predictability of abnormality in heartbeat data series.

Human adaptive responses to climate change occur at the local level, where climatic variability is experienced. Therefore analyzing vulnerability at the local level is important in planning effective adaptation options in a semi-arid environment. This study was conducted to assess vulnerability of Maasai pastoralist communities in Kajiado County, Kenya to climate change by generating vulnerability index for the communities. Data was collected using questionnaires that were administered to 305 households in the five different administrative wards (Oloosirkon/Sholinke, Kitengela, Kapetui North, Kenyawa-Poka and Ilmaroro) in Kajiado East. Vulnerability was measured as the net effect of adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure to climate change. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to assign weights to the vulnerability indicators used for the study and also to calculate the household vulnerability index. A vulnerability map was produced using the GIS software package ArcGIS 10.2. Results showed that gender of household head, age of household head, educational level, access to extension agents, herd size, livestock diversity and access to credit facility influenced vulnerability of the Maasai pastoralists to climate change in Kajiado East. The result showed that the most vulnerable communities with the highest negative vulnerability index value are Ilpolosat (-2.31), Oloosirikon (-2.22), Lenihani (-2.05), Konza (-1.81) and Oloshaiki (-1.53). The communities with the highest positive vulnerability index values were Kekayaya (4.02), Kepiro (3.47), Omoyi (2.81), Esilanke (2.23), Kisaju (2.16) and Olmerui (2.15). We conclude that provision of basic amenities such as good roads and electricity; access to extension agents, access to credit facilities and herd mobility will reduce vulnerability of Maasai pastoralists in Kajiado east to climate change and variability.

We investigated rainfall patterns in India over during the 60-year period from 1951 to 2010 and predicted changes for the next century (2051-2100) with an assumed 4K warming from large ensemble experiments (190 members). We focused on rainfall patterns during two periods of present-day climate (1951-1980 and 1981-2010) and their projected changes for the near and far future (2051-2080 and 2081-2110). Our analysis revealed that the northeastern region of India and some southern regions received higher rainfall during the period of 1951-2010. This finding is consistent with daily observations from the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE). In a warming climate, rainfall events in India are predicted to carry more precipitation, with the northeast and southern regions experiencing stronger rainfall events. The frequency and intensity of these events (with more than 20mm of rainfall per day, on average) are also expected to increase. Overall, our study suggests that water-related disasters such as flooding and landslides could be much worse in India in the future due to climate warming.

It has been an outstanding challenge for global climate models to simulate and predict East Asia (EA) summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall. This study evaluates the dynamical hindcast skills with the newly developed Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model version 3.0 (NESM3.0). To improve the poor prediction of an earlier version of NESM3.0, we have modified convective parameterization schemes to suppress excessive deep convection and enhance insufficient shallow and stratiform clouds. The new version of NESM3.0 with modified parameterizations (MOD hereafter) yields significantly improved rainfall prediction in the northern and southern China but not over the Yangtze River Valley. The improved prediction is primarily attributed to the improvements in the predicted climatological summer mean rainfall and circulations, seasonal march of the subtropical rain belt, Nino 3.4 SST anomaly, and the rainfall anomalies associated with the development and decay of El Nino events. However, the MOD still has notable biases in the predicted leading mode of interannual variability of precipitation. The leading mode captures the dry (wet) anomalies over the South China Sea (northern EA) but misplaced precipitation anomalies over the Yangtze River Valley. The model can capture the interannual variation of the circulation indices very well, but the bias in the circulation-rainfall connection caused predicted rainfall errors. The results here suggest that over EA land regions, the skillful rainfall prediction relies on not only model’s capability in predicting better summer mean and seasonal march of rainfall and ENSO teleconnection with EASM, but also accurate prediction of the leading modes of interannual variability.

Satellite-based rainfall estimation products provide a vital alternative source of rainfall data in areas where conventional precipitation measurement is not readily available. In order to facilitate the use of these products there is the need to evaluate their accuracies. This study evaluated the accuracy of three satellite rainfall products; TMPA 3B42RT, TMPA 3B42 and CMORPH in the Pra basin (23,330 km²) of Ghana. The evaluation was through the point-to-pixel method by comparing 0.25°x 0.25° satellite grids to gauged rainfall based on gauge locations and analyzed statistically using correlation coefficient (r), bias and percent bias (pBias) as the performance verification methods. Seven (7) gauge stations with no missing data for the period of 2003-2008 was used in the evaluation. The analysis was based on daily, monthly, annual and seasonal timescales. Our results showed a good correlation between the TMPA products and the gauged data on all timescales considered. The CMORPH on the other hand showed huge overestimation at all gauge locations. The TMPA 3B42 was seen to be the best amongst the three products. The overall rainfall in the basin was well depicted by the TMPA 3B42 and 3B42RT. Although there wasn’t a perfect match between the 3B42RT and 3B42 products and the gauged rainfall, these products can be used to supplement gauged rainfall measurements in the basin and in estimation of rainfall in ungauged basins with similar characteristics.

Ongoing climate change causes abnormal climate events worldwide such as increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. With South Korea facing growing damage from the increased frequency of localized heavy rains, the country is not an exception. In particular, its steep slope lands, including mountainous areas, are vulnerable to damage from landslides and debris flows. In addition, localized short-term heavy rains that occur in urban areas with extremely high intensity tend to lead a sharp increase in damage from soil-related disasters and cause huge losses of life and property. Currently, South Korea predicts landslides and debris flows using the standards for forecasting landslides and heavy rains. However, as the forecasting is conducted separately for rainfall intensity and accumulated rainfall, this lacks a technique that reflects both amount and intensity of rainfall in an episode of localized heavy rainfall. This study, therefore, aims to develop such a technique by collecting past cases of debris flow occurrences and rainfall events that accompanied debris flows to calculate the rainfall triggering index (RTI) reflecting accumulated rainfall and rainfall intensity. In addition, the RTI is converted into the critical accumulated rainfall (Rc) to use precipitation information and provide real-time forecasting. The study classifies the standards for flow debris forecasting into three levels: ALERT (10%–50%), WARNING (50%–70%), and EMERGENCY (70% or higher), to provide a nomogram for 6 hr, 12 hr, and 24 hr. As a result of applying this classification into the actual cases of Seoul, Chuncheon, and Cheongju, it is found that about 2–4 hr of response time is secured from the point of the Emergency level to the occurrence of debris flows.

The City of Pasadena is located in southern California; a region which has a Mediterranean climate and where the vast majority of rainfall occurs between October and April with the period between January and March being the most intense. A significant amount of the local water supply comes from regional rainfall, therefore any changes in precipitation patterns in the area has considerable significance. HYPOTHESIS: Local climate change has been occurring in the Pasadena area over the last 100 years resulting in changes in air temperature and rainfall. AIR TEMPERATURES: Between 1886 and 2016 the air temperature in Pasadena, California has increased significantly, from a minimum of 23.8°C in the daytime and 8.1°C at night between 1911 and 1920 to 27.2°C and 13.3°C between 2011 and 2016. The increase in nighttime temperature was uniform throughout the year, however daytime temperatures showed more seasonal variation. There was little change in the daytime temperatures May through July but more change the rest of the year. For example, the median daytime temperature for June between 1911 and 1920 was 27.9°C but was 28.7°C between 2011 and 2016, a difference of 0.8°C. In contrast, for October for the same periods the median daytime temperatures were 25.6°C and 28.9°C, a difference of 3.3°C. RAINFALL: There has been a change in local rainfall pattern over the same period. In comparing rainfall between 1883 – 1949 and 1950 – 2016, there appeared to be less rainfall in the months of October, December, and April while other months seemed to show no change in rainfall. For example, between the two periods mentioned above, the median rainfall in October was 12.4 mm and 8.9 mm respectively while for December they were 68.6 mm and 40.4 mm. There was comparatively a smaller change in the median volume of rainfall in April (18.8 mm vs. 17.5 mm). However, between 1883 and 2016 there were 13 with less than 1 mm of rain, 12 of which occurred after 1961. In the same line of logic, no measureable amount of rain occurred for 23 Octobers, 15 of those occurred after 1961. CONCLUSION: As air temperatures increased over the last 100 years in the Pasadena area, rainfall may have decreased in October, December, and April.

Formula feeding, as an alternative to breastfeeding, offers benefits such as convenience and consistent nutrition. Among the drawbacks of formula feeding, however, is potential dilution or concentration errors in the of formula during preparation that may lead to infant health issues. The present study aimed to investigate the accuracy of caregiver measurements as they prepared infant formula under multiple conditions, compared with manufacturer specifications. A diverse sample of caregivers (N = 84) participated in this cross-over experimental study. Participants hand-scooped infant formula powder and poured water to prepare 4oz and 7oz feedings, using both a standardized set of infant formula products and participants’ own products. Linear mixed effects models were used to estimate fixed effects of target amount (4oz versus 7oz) and products (participant versus researcher) on mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of measurement. Across all conditions MAPE was significantly greater for measuring powder than for water (9.0% vs. 4.4%; p&lt;0.001) with a combined powder and water MAPE at 13.0%. Greater measurement error was associated with the odd-sized 7oz preparation and participants’ own products. We observed considerable variability and substantial error during infant formula preparation, particularly for hand-scooping of powder, which tended toward higher values than the theoretical gold standard.

A growing number of studies focus on methods to estimate and analyze the functional connectome of the human brain. Graph theoretical measures are commonly employed to interpret and synthesize complex network-related information. While resting state functional MRI (rsfMRI) is often employed in this context, is known to exhibit poor reproducibility, a key factor which is commonly neglected in typical cohort studies using connectomics-related measures as biomarkers. We aimed to fill this gap by analyzing and comparing inter- and intra- subject variability of connectivity matrices as well as graph-theoretical measures in a large (n=1003) database of young healthy subjects which underwent four consecutive rsfMRI sessions. We analyzed both directed (Granger Causality and Transfer Entropy) and undirected (Pearson Correlation and Partial Correlation) time-series association measures and related global and local graph-theoretical measures. While matrix weights exhibit a higher reproducibility in undirected as opposed to directed methods, this difference disappears when looking at global graph metrics and, in turn, exhibits strong regional dependence in local graphs metrics. Our results warrant caution in the interpretation of connectivity studies, and serve as a benchmark for future investigations by providing quantitative estimates for the inter- and intra- subject variabilities in both directed and undirected connectomic measures.

With the continual global increase of PV power systems and the inherent weather-induced volatility of their power output, understanding the underlying variability of solar radiation in both space and time is important for the planning and reliable operation of future power grids. This paper concisely reviews recent advances in the characterization of irradiance variability with an emphasis on small spatial and temporal scales (respectively less than about 10\,km and 1\,min), for which comprehensive data sets are time consuming and expensive to collect, and although needed have not been available until recently. Special attention is given to studies dealing with the quantification of variability using such unique data, the analysis and modeling of spatial smoothing, and the evaluation of temporal averaging.

In the last century, statistical process control has been considered a successful methodology for monitoring the variability and stability of a process over time. The analysis of variability using functional data analysis has become widespread during the early years of the 21st century. The present study proposes the implementation of a hybrid methodology called functional process control based on the functional data analysis methodology and combines its advantages with those of statistical process control, in order to provide a tool for detecting functional deviations. The phases are: (1) stabilization of processes through the identification and elimination of special causes of functional variability; (2) improvement of the process to be controlled by minimizing the common causes of functional variability; and (3) monitoring of the processes to ensure the maintenance or addition of further improvements.

GDF5 gene is involved in the development of skeletal elements, synovial joint formation, tendons, ligaments, and cartilage. Several polymorphisms are present within the gene and two of them, rs143384 and 143383, have been reported as correlated with osteoarticular disease or muscle flexibility. The aim of this research is to verify if the worldwide distribution among human populations of rs143384 polymorphism has been shaped by selective pressure, or if it’s the result of random genetic drift events. Ninety-four individuals of both sexes, 18-28 years old, from Sardinia were analyzed. We observed the following genotype frequencies: 28.72% of homozygotes AA, 13.83% of homozygotes GG, and 57.45% of heterozygotes AG. Allele frequencies were 0.574 for allele A and 0.426 for alle G. Relationships between populations were verified by Multidimensional Scaling (MDS). Our data show: i) a clear heterogeneity within the African populations; ii) a strong differentiation between Africans and the other populations: iii) the Sardinian population is placed withing the European cluster. To reveal possible traces of selective pressure, Population Branch Statistic (PBS) was calculated; both SNPs rs143384 and 143383 have low PBS values, suggesting that there are no signals of selective pressure in those areas of the gene.

The operating room in a cardiothoracic surgical case is a complex environment, with multiple handoffs often required by staffing changes, and can be variable from program to program. This study was done to characterize what types of practitioners provide anesthesia during cardiac operations to determine the variability in this aspect of care. A survey was sent out via a list serve of members of the cardiac surgical team. Responses from 40 programs from a variety of countries showed variability across every dimension requested of the cardiac anesthesia team. Given that anesthesia is proven to have influence on the outcome of cardiac procedures, this study indicates the opportunity to further study how this variability influences outcomes, and to identify best practices.

The key towards a sustainable future is the reduction of mankind’s impact on natural systems via the development of new technologies and the improvement of source apportionment. Though days, years and seasons are arbitrarily set, their mechanisms are based on natural cycles driven by Earth’s orbital periods. This is not the case for weeks, which are a pure anthropic category and are known from literature to influence emission cycles. For the first time since it started data gathering operations, CO (carbon monoxide), CO₂ (carbon dioxide), CH₄ (methane) and eBC (equivalent black carbon) values detected by the Lamezia Terme WMO/GAW station in Calabria, Southern Italy have been evaluated via a two-pronged approach accounting for weekly variations in absolute concentrations, as well as the number of hourly averages exceeding select thresholds. The analyses were performed on seven continuous years of measurements, from 2016 to 2022. Moreso, the two results have been combined into a new parameter: the hereby defined WDWO (Weighed Distribution of Weekly Outbreaks) normalizes weekly trends of CO, CO₂, CH₄ and eBC on an absolute scale as percentages, with the scope of providing regulators and researchers alike with a new tool meant to better evaluate anthropogenic pollution and mitigate its effects.

In this analysis, we assess the performance of GSMaP-GNRT6 data in capturing precipitation climatology and climate variability across China from 2001 to 2020. The evaluation involves comparing four precipitation indices of accumulated precipitation, the number of rainy days, rainstorm days, and precipitation maximum with the daily precipitation data from 2419 stations in China. The findings reveal that the GSMaP data effectively captures the overall spatial distribution of annual, summer, and monthly precipitation. However, it exhibits minor limitations in accurately depicting the spatial distribution of the number of rainy days from July to September and the precipitation maximum during wintertime in eastern China. While the GSMaP data depicts a coherent annual cycle consistent with the station observations, a general underestimation is observed. Notably, the GSMaP data presents a much smoother annual cycle in precipitation maximum. Regarding accumulated precipitation, the number of rainstorm days, and precipitation maximum, the GSMaP data shows an almost consistent interannual variation and increasing trends, aligning with station observations. However, it is noteworthy that the magnitude of the increasing trend based on the GSMaP data is greater, especially entering the early 21st century. Conversely, a significant discrepancy in the annual variation and an almost opposite changing trend are noticed in the number of rainy days between the GSMaP data and station observations.

The factors influencing hepatitis E virus (HEV) circulation remain largely unexplored. We investigated HEV seroprevalence in humans and the prevalence of infection in farm pigs and rabbits in different regions of the Russian Federation, as well as the genetic diversity and population dynamics of HEV. Anti-HEV IgG antibody detection rates in the general population increase significantly with age, from 1.5% in children and adolescents under 20 years old to 4.8% in adults aged between 20 and 59 years old, to 16.7% in people aged 60 years and older. HEV seroprevalence varies between regions, with the highest rate observed in Belgorod Region (16.4% compared with the national average of 4.6%), which also has the country’s highest pig population. When compared with the archival data, both increases and declines in HEV seroprevalence have been observed within the last 10 years, depending on the study region. Virus shedding has been detected in 19 out of the 21 pig farms surveyed. On one farm, circulation of the same viral strain for five years was documented. All human and animal strains belonged to the HEV-3 genotype, with its clade 2 sequences being predominant in pigs. Sequences from patients, pigs, and sewage from pig farms clustered together, suggesting a zoonotic infection in humans and possible environmental contamination. The HEV-3 population size predicted using SkyGrid reconstruction demonstrated exponential growth in the 1970s–1990s, with a subsequent decline followed by a short rise around the year 2010, the pattern being similar to the dynamics of the pig population in the country. The HEV-3 reproduction number (Re) predicted using Birth-Death Skyline analysis has fluctuated around 1 over the past 20 years in Russia, but is 10 times higher in Belgorod Region. In conclusion, HEV-3 circulation varies both geographically and temporally, even within a single country. The possible factors contributing to this variability are largely related to the circulation of the virus among farm pigs.

The COLOSS research association has been assessing honey bee colony losses, associated risk factors and management, focusing on Western countries but with a progressive international expansion. Here, we report the first survey on the loss rates of colonies in 2022/23 in Ethiopia using COLOSS monitoring survey tools. A face-to-face interview questionnaire survey was conducted on 64 beekeepers selected from Oromia and Tigray regions. This covered 1,713 honey bee colonies distributed in 68 apiaries. The percentages of colonies lost were significantly different between Oromia (24.1%) and Tigray (66.4%) regions. Colony losses were attributed as unsolvable queen problems (8% in Oromia; 10% in Tigray), natural disaster (32%; 82%), and empty hives or dead colonies (60%; 8%). The loss rate was significantly affected by queen replacement (p

BKW is a highly efficient Storage Function-type rainfall-runoff model that utilizes the steady-state storage (S) and outflow (Q) of a catchment at different rainfall intensities as the S-Q relation of the catchment. For the inundation nowcasting of urban areas under high-intensity, short-duration rainfall, a Storage Function-type model is a judicious choice. However, S-Q hysteresis exists in the catchment S-Q relation, and BKW is unable to exhibit hysteresis due to assuming that the S-Q relation of a catchment is a nonlinear relation. The S-Q hysteresis can influence the outflow estimation of BKW, reducing the model's accuracy. Through the evaluation of analytical solutions, we found that the change in rainfall intensity dominates the S-Q relation of a catchment. The S-Q relation during a rainfall event is a dynamic process rather than a monotonic nonlinear relation. By applying the dynamic S-Q relation in BKW, we improved BKW to become a highly efficient and accurate rainfall-runoff model for small urban catchments.

This paper investigates the influence of different vegetation on the permeability of the shallow soil layers of slopes under rainfall infiltration. Firstly, four large slopes are filled in the outdoor natural environment, and the overburdens of the four slopes are Magnolia multiflora, Cynodon dactylon, Magnolia multiflora mixed with Cynodon dactylon, and no vegetation. Secondly, the four slopes are cultivated in the outdoor natural environment for one year. After the vegetation overburdens are matured, the field artificial rainfall test is carried out through the self-developed artificial rainfall device to monitor the water migration law inside the four slopes in real time. Finally, the unsaturated permeability coefficients of the shallow soil layers of slopes are calculated. The results show that the infiltration rate of rainwater in each overburden slope from fast to slow is Magnolia multiflora overburden slope, no vegetation slope, Cynodon dactylon overburden slope, Magnolia multiflora mixed with Cynodon dactylon overburden slope. In the early stage of rainfall, Magnolia multiflora increases the permeability coefficient of the shallow soil layer of the slope, thus weakening the anti-seepage ability of the slope, but the influence of Magnolia multiflora is not obvious in the later stage. Cynodon dactylon and Magnolia multiflora mixed with Cynodon dactylon can significantly reduce the permeability coefficient of the shallow soil layers of the slopes, thereby increasing the anti-seepage ability of the slopes, and the mixed planting of Magnolia multiflora and Cynodon dactylon can minimize the permeability coefficient of the shallow soil of the slope, resulting in the best anti-seepage effect.

This study proposed a spatially and temporally improving methodology adopting the Regional Frequency Analysis with L-moments approach to estimate rainfall quantiles from 22787 grids of radar rainfall in Taiwan for a 24-hour duration. Due to limited radar coverage in the eastern region, significant discordant grids were found in the coastal area of the eastern region. A K-means cluster analysis using scaled at-site characteristics was used to group the QPESUMS grids in Taiwan into 22 clusters/sub-regions based on their characteristics. Spatially, homogeneous subregions with QPESUMS data produce more detailed homogeneous subregions with clear and continuous boundaries, especially in the mountain range area where the number of rain stations is still very limited. According to the results of z-values and L-moment ratio diagrams, the Wakeby (WAK), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Generalized Pareto (GPA) distributions of rainfall extremes fitted well for the majority of subregions. The Wakeby distribution was the dominant best-fitted distribution, especially in the central and eastern regions. The east of the northern part and southern part of Taiwan had the highest extreme rainfall for each return period. Both areas were frequently struck by typhoons. By using grid-based (at-site) as the basis for assessing regional frequency analysis, the results show that the regional approach in determining extreme rainfall is very suitable for large-scale applications and even better for smaller scales such as watershed areas. The spatial investigation was performed by establishing regions of interest in small subregions across the northern part. It showed that regionalization was correct and consistent.

Rainfall retrieval using geostationary satellites provides critical means to the monitoring of extreme rainfall events. Using the relatively new Himawari 8 meteorological satellite with three times more channels than its predecessors, the deep learning framework of “convolutional autoencoder” (CAE) was applied to the extraction of cloud and precipitation features. The CAE method was incorporated into the Convolution Neural Network version of the PERSIANN precipitation retrieval that uses GOES satellites. By applying the CAE technique with the addition of Residual Blocks and other modifications of deep learning architecture, the presented derivation of PERSIANN operated at the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan (referred to as PERSIANN-CWB) expands four extra convolution layers to fully use Himawari 8’s infrared and water vapor channels, while preventing degradation of accuracy caused by the deeper network. The development of PERSIANN-CWB was trained over Taiwan for its diverse weather systems and localized rainfall features, and the evaluation reveals an overall improvement from its CNN counterpart and superior performance over all other rainfall retrievals analyzed. Limitation of this model was found in the derivation of typhoon rainfall, an area requiring further research.

In this study a new approach for planning Micro-Catchment Water Harvesting (M.C.W.H.) systems for irrigation in semi-arid regions such as the Aegean islands, is presented. M.C.W.H. is a cheap solution for constructing irrigation infrastructure with zero energy cost in regions where water is scarce. The proposed approach introduces simple linear relationships for estimating the annual volume of water V_s collected mainly from the CA (Contributing Area), stored in the root zone (Infiltration Basin, IB), according to the annual rainfall and runoff depths, after having determined the ratio of areas of micro-catchment (MC) components i.e. λ= Α_CA/Α_ΙΒ and its whole area A_MC This procedure was applied in Paros island of the Cyclades complex in the middle of the Aegean sea in east Mediterranean. Besides, income-cost analysis was performed via NPV method for almond, peach and apricot trees. The new approach was proved versatile and easy to use. Besides, the investment turned out to be advantageous two years after the MCs construction.

In this work a modified version of the well-known Simple Water Balance (SWB) model, comprising here three parameters instead of one, was used. Although simple, the model was tested in large-scale river basins in east-central Greece, upstream two hydrometric stations. The available historic runoff records comprised 19 hydrologic years each, on a monthly basis. Thirteen among them were used for calibrating the model, whereas the six subsequent, for validating it. Two different efficiency criteria were used as a measure of performance of the modified model. Their values, calculated for both calibration and validation stages, were close and relatively high. Thus, keeping in mind both the size and complexity of the river basins studied, one can conclude that the modified model, despite its simplistic concept and lumped form, fits satisfactorily the historic runoff series.

This study investigates the historical variability in annual average precipitation in the northwest region of Mexico, aiming to evaluate the cumulative impact of precipitation on soil degradation and associated risks posed by rainfall. Despite being known as "The Agricultural Heart of Mexico," the region's soil has experienced significant damage to its granulometric structure due to unpredictable rainfall patterns attributed to climate change. Sixteen historical series of average annual rainfall were analyzed as stationary stochastic processes for spectral analysis. The results revealed exponential decay curves in each radial spectrum, indicating a linear relationship between frequency and amplitude. These curves identified initial impulses correlated with moments of severity for structural damages caused by rainfall-induced degradation. The degradation process, exacerbated by water stress, accelerates, as evidenced by maps illustrating approximately 75% soil damage. In the context of climate change and the uncertainty surrounding soil responses to extreme meteorological events, understanding this phenomenon becomes crucial. Recognizing the dynamic nature of soil responses to environmental stressors is essential for effective soil management. Emphasizing the need to employ numerical processes tailored to new environmental considerations related to observed soil damages is crucial for sustainable soil management practices in any region.

In recent decades, there have been significant problems worldwide related to global warming and the intensification of extreme temperature and rainfall events. This research evaluated daily temperature and rainfall indices trends to identify whether warming signals have occurred in South Australia over the past fifty years. Extreme cold, hot, and rainfall events were calculated using climatic data from 37 weather stations. A Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis with Sen's estimator. As a result, we determined that for the 1970-2021 period, the maximum and minimum temperatures increased by 1.1 and 0.7 °C, respectively, while precipitation had a negative trend (-52.2 mm/period). Since statistical significance was found in analysing extreme cold and hot events, we find that warming signals have several impacts on South Australia. In the case of rainfall events, we identified a heterogeneous pattern characterised by a reduction in the annual amount, and an increase in extreme rainfall events. The findings enable us to conclude that the area shows signs of global warming that could affect the intensity and magnitude of droughts. This information is essential for continuing with current management strategies to adapt and mitigate the effects of global warming in South Australia.

This study aims to assess trends and significant changes in precipitation and river flow in the Senegal River basin and its upper basin over the period 1982-2021. Eight hydroclimate indicators, namely maximum river discharge (QMAX), standardized flow index, mean daily rainfall intensity index (SDII), maximum 5-day consecutive precipitation (RX5DAY), annual precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile (R95p), annual precipitation exceeding the 99th percentile (R99P), annual flows exceeding the 95th percentile (Q95p), and annual flows exceeding the 99th percentile (Q95p) were considered.. The modified Mann-Kendall test (MMK) was used to analyze trends in extremes while standard normal homogeneity and Pettit’s tests were employed to detect potential breakpoints in these trends. The results indicated an irregular precipitation pattern, with high values of extreme precipitation indices (R95p, R99p, SDII, and RX5DAY) in the southern part, while the northern part exhibits lower values. Inter-annual analysis revealed a significant increase in extreme precipitation events between 1982 and 2021, with a notable breakpoint around the years 2006 and 2007. This breakpoint marks a transition to a much wetter period starting from 2008. Regarding extreme flows, a significant increase was observed between 1982 and 2021. This study provides insights into past hydrological extremes in the study area and can serve as a basis for future research in this field.