Optimal dividend payment under a ruin constraint is a two objective control problem which—in simple models—can be solved numerically by three essentially different methods. One is based on a modified Bellman equation and the policy improvement method (see Hipp C., 2003). In this paper we use explicit formulas for running allowed ruin probabilities which avoid a complete search and speed up and simplify the computation. The second is also a policy improvement method, but without the use of a dynamic equation (see Hipp C., 2003). It is based on closed formulas for first entry probabilities and discount factors for the time until first entry (see Hipp C., 2016). Third a new, faster and more intuitive method which uses appropriately chosen barrier levels and a closed formula for the corresponding dividend value. Using the running allowed ruin probabilities, a simple test for admissibility—concerning the ruin constraint—is given. All these methods work for the discrete De Finetti model and are applied in a numerical example. The non stationary Lagrange multiplier method suggested in (see Hipp C., 2016), Section 2.2.2 does also yield optimal dividend strategies which differ from those in all other methods, and Lagrange gaps are present here. These gaps always exist in De Finetti models, see (see Hipp C., 2017).

In this paper, we work with a diffusion-perturbed risk model comprising a surplus generating process and an investment return process. The investment return process is of standard Black-Scholes type, that is, it comprises a single risk-free asset that earns interest at a constant rate and a single risky asset whose price process is modelled by a geometric Brownian motion. Additionally, the company is allowed to purchase noncheap proportional reinsurance priced via the expected value principle. Using the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman approach, we derive a second-order Volterra integrodifferential equation which we transform into a linear Volterra integral equation of the second kind. We proceed to solve this integral equation numerically using the block-by-block method for the optimal reinsurance retention level that minimizes the ultimate ruin probability. The numerical results based on light- and heavy-tailed distributions show that proportional reinsurance and investments play a vital role in enhancing the survival of insurance companies. But the ruin probability exhibits sensitivity to the volatility of the stock price.

This paper considers the solution of the equations for ruin probabilities in infinite continuous time. Using the Fourier Transform and certain results from the theory of complex functions, these solutions are obtained as com- plex integrals in a form which may be evaluated numerically by means of the inverse Fourier Transform. In addition the relationship between the re- sults obtained for the continuous time cases, and those in the literature, are compared. Closed form ruin probabilities for the heavy tailed distributions: mixed exponential; Gamma (including Erlang); Lognormal; Weillbull; and Pareto, are derived as a result (or computed to any degree of accuracy, and without the use of simulations).

Panel data of our interest consist of a moderate number of panels, while the panels contain a small number of observations. An estimator of common breaks in panel means without a boundary issue for this kind of scenario is proposed. In particular, the novel estimator is able to detect a common break point even when the change happens immediately after the first time point or just before the last observation period. Another advantage of the elaborated change point estimator is that it results in the last observation in situations with no structural breaks. The consistency of the change point estimator in panel data is established. The results are illustrated through a simulation study. As a by-product of the developed estimation technique, a theoretical utilization for correlation structure estimation, hypothesis testing, and bootstrapping in panel data is demonstrated. A practical application to non-life insurance is presented as well.

The foot-mounted inertial navigation system is an important application of pedestrian navigation as it in principle does not rely any external assistance. A real-time range decomposition constraint method is proposed in this paper to combine the information of dual foot-mounted inertial navigation systems. It is well known that low-cost inertial sensors with ZUPT (zero-velocity update) and range decomposition constraint perform better than in either single way. This paper recommends that the distance of separation between the position estimates of feet-mounted inertial navigation systems be restricted in the ellipsoidal constraint which relates to the maximum step and leg height. The performance of the proposed method is studied utilizing experimental data. The results indicate that the method can effectively correct the dual navigation systems’ position over the existing spherical constraint.

Quantum optimization is a significant area of quantum computing with anticipated near-term quantum advantages. Current quantum optimization algorithms, most of which are hybrid variational Hamiltonian-based algorithms, struggle on present quantum devices due to noise and decoherence. Existing techniques attempt to mitigate these issues through employing different Hamiltonian encodings or Hamiltonian clause pruning but often rely on optimistic assumptions rather than a deep analysis of the problem structure. We demonstrate how to formulate the problem Hamiltonian for the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm to satisfy all the requirements that correctly describe the considered tactical aircraft deconfliction problem, achieving higher probabilities of measuring solutions compared to previous works. Our results indicate that constructing Hamiltonians from an unconventional, quantum-specific perspective with a high degree of entanglement results in linear number of entangleming gates instead of exponential and superior performance compared to standard formulations. Specifically, we achieve higher probabilities of measuring feasible solutions in 9 out of 9 instances compared to standard Hamiltonian formulations and surpass quadratic programming formulations known from quantum annealers in 7 out of 9 instances. These findings suggest that there is substantial potential for further research in quantum Hamiltonian design and that gate-based approaches may offer superior optimization performance over quantum annealers in the future.

We introduce derangetropy, a novel functional measure designed to characterize the dynamics of information within probability distributions. Unlike scalar measures such as Shannon entropy, derangetropy offers a functional representation that captures the dispersion of information across the entire support of a distribution. By incorporating self-referential and periodic properties, it provides deeper insights into information dynamics governed by differential equations and equilibrium states. Through combinatorial justifications and empirical analysis, we demonstrate the utility of derangetropy in depicting distribution behavior and evolution, providing a new tool for analyzing complex and hierarchical systems in information theory.

The paper addresses the energy consumption minimization problem in wireless powered communication networks (WPCNs) and proposes a DT-SWIPT-assisted time allocation scheme, named DaTA, such that the wireless station can share the remaining energy after transmission to the HAP to those who have not transmitted to the HAP to minimize the energy consumption of the network. In addition to proposing a new frame structure, the paper also considers the SNR (Signal-to-Noise) constraint to guarantee that the HAP can successfully receive data from wireless stations. In the paper, the energy consumption minimization problem is formulated as a nonlinear programming model. We employ the SQP (Sequential Quadratic Programming) algorithm to figure out the optimal solution. Moreover, a heuristic method is proposed as well to obtain a near-optimal solution in a shorter time. Simulation results showed that the proposed scheme can have better performance than the related work in terms of energy consumption and energy efficiency.

Following Dirac’s notation in Quantum Mechanics (QM), we propose the Probability Bracket Notation (PBN), by defining a probability-bra (P-bra), P-ket, P-bracket, P-identity, etc…Using the PBN, many formulas, such as normalizations and expectations in systems of one or more random variables, can now be written in abstract basis-independent expressions, easy to expand by inserting a proper P-identity. The time evolution of homogeneous Markov processes can also be formatted in such a way. Our system P-kets are identified with probability vectors and our P-bra system is comparable with Doi’s state function or Peliti’s standard bra. In the Heisenberg picture of the PBN, a random variable becomes a stochastic process, and the Chapman-Kolmogorov equations are obtained by inserting a time-dependent P-identity. Also, some QM expressions in Dirac notation are naturally transformed to probability expressions in PBN by a special Wick rotation. Potential Applications show the usefulness of the PBN beyond the constrained domain and range of Hermitian operators on Hilbert Spaces in QM all the way to IT.

Developing new ways to estimate probabilities can be valuable for science, statistics, and engineering. By considering the information content of different output patterns, recent work invoking algorithmic information theory has shown that a priori probability predictions based on pattern complexities can be made in a broad class of input-output maps. These algorithmic probability predictions do not depend on a detailed knowledge of how output patterns were produced, or historical statistical data. Although quantitatively fairly accurate, a main weakness of these predictions is that they are given as an upper bound on the probability of a pattern, but many low complexity, low probability patterns occur, for which the upper bound has little predictive value. Here we study this low complexity, low probability phenomenon by looking at example maps, namely a finite state transducer, natural time series data, RNA molecule structures, and polynomial curves. Some mechanisms causing low complexity, low probability behaviour are identified, and we argue this behaviour should be assumed as a default in the real world algorithmic probability studies. Additionally, we examine some applications of algorithmic probability and discuss some implications of low complexity, low probability patterns for several research areas including simplicity in physics and biology, a priori probability predictions, Solomonoff induction and Occam's razor, machine learning, and password guessing.

The philosophy of testing statistical hypothesis is a natural consequence and functional extension of mathematical analysis of Probability. Along with the concept of recurrence when applied to random sequences and functions, it leads to the analysis of a priori and posterior which implies testing statistical hypothesis. Testing statistical hypothesis also involves algebraic, functional and dimensional considerations, which are found in the works of Laplace. Aspects of mathematical analysis such as universality of solutions, Laws of Large Numbers, Entropy, Information, and various functional dependencies are the main factors explained in the five properties that lead to implication of testing statistical hypothesis. Various interesting examples with modern scientific significance from genetics, astrophysics, and other areas give methodological access to answers of different problems and phenomena which are involved in the logic of testing statistical hypothesis.

The uncertainty in the secondary path of an Active Noise Control (ANC) headphone affects the waterbed effect and stability of the feedback system. This study focuses on the uncertainty of the secondary path when real users wear headphones, and proposes a new uncertainty constraint based on the measured results of the secondary path transfer function under different wearing conditions of dummy head and limited subjects. This constraint and a cascaded second-order infinite impulse response filter with fixed coefficients are used to formulate a control strategic function, which is optimized by the Improved Grey Wolf Optimizer (IGWO) algorithm to obtain the optimal controller with better noise reduction performance. The proposed method and simulation model are validated based on the experimental test results. The results demonstrate that the safety factor and waterbed suppressing factor contained in the proposed uncertainty constraint ensures more stable noise reduction and effective suppression of the waterbed effect for new subjects without a priori data.

Despite the availability of COVID-19 vaccines, the global pandemic remains a significant health challenge. Timely detection of the virus is crucial for effective containment efforts, prompting the exploration of machine learning (ML) models for COVID-19 detection. highlights the ongoing significance of COVID-19 as a global health crisis despite the availability of vaccines. To address the need for timely virus detection, the study explores the efficacy of machine learning (ML) models, including DNN, Voting, Bagging, SVC_rbf, SVC_linear, SVC_polynomial, and SVC_sigmoid, in predicting COVID-19 infection probability. With a dataset comprising 4000 samples split into 3200 for training and 800 for testing, the analysis reveals that DNN and Voting models demonstrate the highest performance, achieving an impressive accuracy of 89%. These results underscore the potential of ML techniques, particularly DNN and ensemble methods like Voting, in facilitating early COVID-19 detection and contributing to effective pandemic management. The study emphasizes the importance of continued research to further refine and optimize ML-based COVID-19 detection systems.

Hypersonic aircraft focuses more on the integration of aircraft and engine than ordinary aircraft owing to high performance requirements, and the nozzle design is reflected in the required large area ratio of nozzle inlet and outlet and the compactness of the overall size of the aircraft. In this study, the height constraint is directly introduced into the maximum thrust nozzle design method. A new method for designing nozzles under the height constraints that consults the maximum thrust theory is proposed. Initially, the condition that the nozzle reaches the maximum thrust under the height constraint is deduced mathematically. Then, a nozzle design method satisfying the height constraint is computed using the method of characteristics (MOC). Subsequently, the influence of the design parameters on the design method is studied parametrically. Results show that Mach number scale and asymmetrical factors can affect ramp length and flap length of the nozzle, respectively. These factors great influence the axial thrust performance and lift under a specific height constraint. Compared with the traditional truncation design method, the thrust coefficient and lift increased by 11.93% and 138.45% respectively.

Aging rate differs greatly between species, indicating that the process of senescence is largely genetically determined. Senescence evolves in part due to antagonistic pleiotropy (AP), where selection favors gene variants that increase fitness earlier in life but promote pathology later. Identifying the biological mechanisms by which AP causes senescence is key to understanding the endogenous causes of aging and its attendant diseases. Here we argue that the frequent occurrence of AP as a property of genes reflects the presence of constraint in the biological systems that they specify. This arises particularly because the functionally interconnected nature of biological systems constrains the simultaneous optimization of coupled traits (interconnection constraints), or because individual traits cannot evolve (impossibility constraints). We present an account of aging that integrates AP and biological constraint with recent programmatic aging concepts, including costly programs, quasi-programs, hyperfunction and hypofunction. We argue that AP mechanisms of costly programs and triggered quasi-programs are consequences of constraint, in which costs resulting from hyperfunction or hypofunction cause senescent pathology. Impossibility constraint can also cause hypofunction independently of AP. We also describe how AP corresponds to Stephen Jay Gould’s constraint-based concept of evolutionary spandrels, and argue that pathologies arising from AP are bad spandrels. Biological constraint is a missing link between ultimate and proximate causes of senescence, including diseases of aging. That this was not realized previously may reflect a combination of hyperadaptationism among evolutionary biologists, and the erroneous assumption by biogerontologists that molecular damage accumulation is the principal primary cause of aging.

We find that the standard relative entropy and the Umegaki entropy are designed for the purpose of inferentially updating probability and density matrices respectively. From the same set of inferentially guided design criteria, both of the previously stated entropies are derived in parallel. This formulates a quantum maximum entropy method for the purpose of inferring density matrices in the absence of complete information.

The rapid development of the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) has brought enormous opportunities to the industrial environment but has also posed significant challenges to network security, especially the physical layer security challenges,which is crucial for the reliable transmission of messages interconnected devices and sensors. Focus on the enhancing the physical layer security in the IIoT communication, this paper proposed a mechanism of Spatial Secrecy Outage Probability (SSOP) to ensure the secure transmission of data. The SSOP algorithm assumes that the location of legitimate device is known, while eavesdropper on the random distribution of device locations, forming the SSOP model related to device locations from the perspective of insecure regions (ISR) and secure regions (SR), and deduce the closed-form expression for its upper bound. Subsequently under the constraint of SSOP conditions, establish an optimization model with the objective of system throughput maximization based on Spatial Secrecy Outage Probability(SRM-SSOP). By optimizing the transmission rate of legitimate channels or controlling the transmission power, the maximization of system throughput can be achieved, thus reducing the consumption of communication resources. Through sophisticated modeling and simulation in the MATLAB, we verified the accuracy of the definition and derived upper bound of SSOP. The experimental results also show that SSOP algorithm gradually converges to a specific value as the number of antenna elements increases. In addition, we observed that when the receiver device is aligned with the normal direction of the transmit antenna array, the SSOP reaches a minimum value. These performance are crucial for understanding and optimizing the security performance of IIoT communication systems.

The impact of the crystalline or amorphous structure of a solid on the solubility and pharmacokinetic properties of a drug candidate is always considered by the pharmaceutical industry during the development of a new drug, however, it is not so frequently considered during the early discovery process by organic and medicinal chemists, particularly working at the academia. We want to share, as an example case, the false negative obtained in the biological testing of a solid sample of a tyrosine kinase inhibitor due to an unexpected crystallinity with respect to a solid amorphous batch of the same compound and the experimentation carried out to establish the origin of such inconsistency.

This paper discusses about the quantum energy levels of muonic hydrogen considering only Coulomb interaction. The computational analysis in this paper will help the reader get a good understanding of how different a muonic hydrogen is from its electronic counterparts. Energy eigenvalues are calculated by numerical method and the probability density distribution of muon around the nucleus is plotted for different quantum states using special functions. The code is written in python. A comparative study of emission spectra between the muonic hydrogen and hydrogen has also been discussed.

For the set of probability measures ${\sf I}(X)$, where $X$ is a compact Hausdorff space, we propose a new way to introduce the topology by using open subsets of the space $X$. Then, among other things, we give a new proof that for a compact Hausdorff space $X$ the space ${\sf I}(X)$ is also a compact Hausdorff space. For a Tychonoff space $X$, we consider the topological space ${\sf I_{\tau}}(X)$ of $\tau$-smooth idempotent probability measures on $X$,and show that the space ${\sf I_{\tau}}(X)$ is \v{C}ech-complete if and only if the given space $X$ is \v{C}ech-complete.

. In this paper, we introduce a series of definitions of generalized affine functions for vector-valued functions. We prove that our generalized affine functions have some similar properties with generalized convex functions. We present examples to show that our generalized affinenesses are different from one another, and also provide an example to show that our definition of presubaffinelikeness is non-trivial; presubaffinelikeness is the weakest generalized affineness introduced in this article. We work with optimization problems that are defined and taking values in linear topological spaces. We devote to the study of constraint qualifications, and derive some optimality conditions as well as a strong duality theorem. Our optimization problems have inequality constraints, equality constrains and abstract constraints; our inequality constraints are generalized convex functions and equality constraints are generalized affine functions.

In recent years, with the rapid development of technology, artificial intelligence(AI) security issues represented by adversarial sample attack have aroused widespread concern in society. Adversarial samples are often generated by surrogate models and then transfer to attack the target model, and most AI models in real-world scenarios belong to black boxes, thus transferability becomes a key factor to measure the quality of adversarial samples. The traditional method relies on the decision boundary of the classifier and takes the boundary crossing as the only judgment metric without considering the probability distribution of the sample itself, which results in an irregular way of adding perturbations to the adversarial sample, an unclear path of generation, and a lack of transferability and interpretability. In the probabilistic generative model, after learning the probability distribution of the samples, a random term can be added to the sampling to gradually transform the noise into a new independent and identically distributed sample. Inspired by this idea, we believe that by removing the random term, the adversarial sample generation process can be regarded as static sampling of the probabilistic generative model, which guides the adversarial samples out of the original probability distribution and into the target probability distribution, and helps to improve transferability and interpretability. Therefore, we propose a Score Matching-Based Attack(SMBA) method to perform the adversarial sample attacks by manipulating the probability distribution of the samples, which can show good transferability in the face of different datasets and models, and give reasonable explanations from the perspective of mathematical theory and feature space. In conclusion, our research establishes a bridge between probabilistic generative models and adversarial samples, provides a new entry angle for the study of adversarial samples, and brings new thinking to AI security.

Based on recent contributions regarding the treatment of unsteady hydraulic conditions into the state-of-the-art of scour literature, the theoretically derived probability distribution of bridge scour is introduced. The model is derived assuming a rectangular hydrograph shape with a given duration, and random flood peak following a Gumbel distribution. A model extension for a more complex flood event is also presented, assuming a synthetic exponential hydrograph shape. The mathematical formulation can be extended to any flood-peak probability distribution. The aim of the manuscript is to move forward the current approaches adopted for the bridge design coupling hydrological, hydraulic, and erosional models in a mathematical closed form.

Philippines as an archipelago and tropical country, which is situated near the Pacific ocean, faces uncertain rainfall intensities. This makes environmental, agricultural and economic systems affected by precipitation difficult to manage. Time series analysis of Philippine rainfall pattern has been previously done, but there is no study investigating its probability distribution. Modeling the Philippine rainfall using probability distributions is essential, especially in managing risks and designing insurance products. Here, daily and cumulative rainfall data (January 1961 - August 2016) from 28 PAGASA weather stations are fitted to probability distributions. Moreover, the fitted distributions are examined for invariance under subsets of the rainfall data set. We observe that the Gamma distribution is a suitable fit for the daily up to the ten-day cumulative rainfall data. Our results can be used in agriculture, especially in forecasting claims in weather index-based insurance.

Camera malfunctions or loss of storage elements in imaging devices may lead to loss of important image information or random impulse noise interference. Low rank is one of the important prior information in image optimization processing. This paper uses different low-rank constraint models of the image matrices to recover the impulse interference satellite images. Firstly, an overview of image inpainting models based on nuclear norm, truncated nuclear norm, weighted nuclear norm, and matrix-factorization-based F-norm is presented, and corresponding optimiza-tion iterative algorithms are provided. Then, we conducted experiments under three types of pulse interference and provided visual and numerical results. Finally, it is concluded that the WSVT_ADMM method based on the weighted nuclear norm can obtain the best image inpainting results; The UV_ADMM method based on F norm of matrix factorization has the least computa-tion time and can be used for large-scale low-rank matrix computation; The WSVT_ADMM method based on weighted nuclear norm and the TSVT_ ADMM method based on truncated nuclear norms can significantly improve the repair effect compared to the nuclear norm-based methods such as SVT, SVP, and n_ADMM.

In heterogeneous networks, the random walks based on meta-path requires prior knowledge and lacks flexibility. And the random walks based on non-meta-path only considers the number of node types, but does not consider the influence of schema and topology between node types in real networks. To solve the above problems, this paper proposes a novel model HNE-RWTIC (Heterogeneous Network Embedding Based on Random Walks of Type & Inner Constraint). Firstly, to realize the flexible walks, we design a Type strategy, which is the node type selection strategy based on the co-occurrence probability of node types. Secondly, to achieve the uniformity of node sampling, we design an Inner strategy, which is the node selection strategy based on the adjacency relationship between nodes. The Type & Inner strategy can realize the random walks based on meta-path, the flexibility of the walks, and can sample the node types and nodes uniformly in proportion. Thirdly, based on the above strategy, a transition probability model is constructed; then, we obtain the nodes embedding based on the random walks and Skip-Gram. Finally, in classification and clustering tasks, we conducted a thorough empirical evaluation of our method on three real heterogeneous networks. Experimental results shown that F1-Score and NMI of HNE-RWTIC outperform state-of-the-art approaches.

Microalgae biomass is a budding raw material for the origination of food, fuel, and other value-added products. However, bulk production of microalgal biomass at commercial level is a herculean task for the current microalgal mass production technologies due to the undesirable contaminations by biological pollutants. These contaminants hamstring the production of microalgae biomass by debilitating the growth of cultures, crumble the quality of biomass and sometimes may crash the whole culture. The best utilization of the microalgae biomass at industrial level could be attained by avoiding various possible biological contaminations in mass cultivation system, understanding the contamination mechanisms, and the complex interactions of algae with other microorganisms. This review explores the various types of biological pollutants, their possible mode of infection along with mechanisms, different controlling methods to maintain desired microalgae culture.

An inverse aeroacoustic problem for a helicopter rotor combined with aerodynamic constraint is proposed based on Ffowcs Williams and Hawkings equation in subsonic. The rotor noise includes thickness noise and loading noise when quadrupole noise is neglected. Thickness noise is related to geometry and motion conditions. Loading noise is related to the pressure on the wall. Therefore, the equation between pressure on the wall and far-field noise can be established, thus the pressure on the wall can be obtained by solving this equation. Since this equation is an ill-posed, the singular value decomposition combined with the regulation method is applied and the aerodynamic constraint is taken into account. The direct noise prediction is verify firstly and then the inverse problem is solved. The reconstruction pressure is compared to the input data. The result is in good agreement with the input value. At the same time, the influence of interference noise is also considered. Under low signal-to-noise ratio, the reconstruction result is also reasonable.

This article explores the enduring mysteries of consciousness and the afterlife, two enigmatic topics that have fascinated humanity for ages. Despite extensive scientific efforts, the existence of an afterlife remains unproven, and understanding consciousness remains a significant challenge. The research introduces new hypotheses through simple experiments with empirical evidence and theoretical foundations. It delves into the complexities of consciousness, its relationship with the brain, and the need for interdisciplinary approaches. Boldly contemplating the probability of a continuous consciousness after death, the study argues that existing evidence strongly supports this idea. In other words, if we do not accept the hypothesis of an afterlife, we may not be able to discuss the experimental results in the context of any alternative theories. Beyond theoretical implications, it envisions practical outcomes, suggesting that insights into these mysteries could enhance human well-being and contribute to a more harmonious world. This article sheds light on age-old questions about consciousness and the afterlife. Through fresh methodologies, it seeks to provide new perspectives that could reshape our understanding of existence and inspire intellectuals to positive individual and societal advancements including psychological well-being and intelligence.

Healthcare leaders are faced with many financial challenges in the contemporary environment, leading to many bankruptcies in recent years. What is not well understood are the specific conditions that lead to organizational economic failure. Ideally, hospital leaders could examine the literature for guidance to predict bankruptcy before it occurs. However, existing regression methods have proven inadequate, especially when the finance variables follow a nonnormal frequency pattern. Furthermore, the regression approach encounters difficulties due to multicollinearity and nonnormality issues. Therefore, an alternate stochastic approach for predicting the probability of hospital bankruptcy is warranted. This new method includes computing and interpreting the correlations between the hospital’s revenue and expenses for bivariate lognormal data, calculating the risk of bankruptcy due to the mismatch between revenues and expenses, determining the likelihood of a hospital’s expense exceeding the state’s median expense level, and evaluating a hospital’s financial memory level. Ultimately in our research, we demonstrate a novel approach to anticipate hospital bankruptcy, which can be particularly useful for health policy analysts and hospital leaders in making informed financial decisions and proactively managing risks to ensure the sustainability and stability of their institutions.

In public health literature the risk of death or disease associated with a dietary, environmental of behavioral factor is most commonly denoted by odds ratio (OR), hazard ratio (HR) or risk ratio (RR). The ratio indices have several desirable statistical properties. However, the most important question is whether there are some evolved innate norms of perception of risk that people use and what they are. We conducted a simple one question survey of 98 individuals with different age, sex, educational and professional backgrounds. The respondents were asked to judge the relative perceived risk of four different hypothetical habits for which data on the percentage of people affected by the disease with and without the habit was given. They were asked to rank the risks for the four habits. Results showed that the habits that had the highest difference between probability of acquiring the disease were ranked high on risk perception. The probability ratios did not affect risk perception significantly. Further age, sex, profession or formal training in statistics did not affect the response significantly. Even individuals that were formally trained to use OR and HR as risk indicators, preferred using probability differences over ratios for judging their own risk in the perceived context. This preliminary inquiry into intuitive statistical perception suggests that designing statistical indices based on people’s innate perception may be a better strategy than trying to train people to understand the indices designed by expert statisticians.

Identifying the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been a unique challenge for the scientific community. In this paper, we discuss a practical solution to help guide clinicians with interpretation of the probability that a positive, or negative, COVID-19 test result indicates an infected person, based on their clinical estimate of pre-test probability of infection.The authors conducted a small survey on LinkedIn to confirm that hypothesis that that the clinical pre-test probability of COVID-19 increases relative to local prevalence of disease plus patient age, known contact, and severity of symptoms. We examined results of PPA (Positive Percent Agreement, sensitivity) and NPA (Negative Percent Agreement, specificity) from 73 individual laboratory experiments for molecular tests for SARS-CoV-2 as reported to the FIND database ¹, and for selected methods in FDA EUA submissions^2,3. Authors calculated likelihood ratios to convert pre-test to post-test probability of disease and designed an online calculator to create graphics and text to report results. Despite best efforts, false positive and false negative Covid-19 test results are unavoidable^4,5. A positive or negative test result from one laboratory has a different probability for the presence of disease than the same result from another laboratory. Likelihood ratios and confidence intervals can convert the physician or other healthcare professional’s clinical estimate of pre-test probability to post-test probability of disease. Ranges of probabilities differ depending on proven method PPA and NPA in each laboratory. We recommend that laboratories verify PPA and NPA and utilize a the “Clinician’s Probability Calculator” to verify acceptable test performance and create reports to help guide clinicians with estimation of post-test probability of COVID-19.

In this paper, we study the constrained minimization problem for an energy functional which is related to the following Kirchhoff type equation \begin{equation*} -\Big(\eta+b\big(\int_{\R^{3}}|\nabla u|^{2}dx\big)^{s}\Big)\Delta u+V(x)u=\mu u +\lambda|u|^{p}u,\end{equation*} where $b$ is a positive constant, parameters $\eta\geq0, \lambda>0$, exponents $s>0$, $0

Carbon nanotube (CNT) yarns are fiber-like materials that exhibit excellent mechanical, electrical and thermal properties. More importantly, they exhibit a piezoresistive response that can be tapped for sensing purposes. The objective of this study is to determine experimentally the piezoresistive response of CNT yarns that are embedded in a polymeric medium while subjected to either compression or tension, and compare it with that of the free or unconstrained CNT yarns. The rationale for this study is the need to know the response of the CNT yarn while in a medium, which provides a lateral constraint to the CNT yarn thus mimicking the response of integrated CNT yarn sensors. The experimental program will include the fabrication of samples and their electromechanical characterization. The CNT yarns are integrated in polymeric beams and subjected to four-point bending, allowing the determination of their response under tension and compression. The electrical resistance data from an Inductance-Capacitance-Resistance (LCR) device is used with the data acquired from the mechanical testing system to determine the piezoresistive response of the CNT yarns. This data and information will be used for future modeling efforts and to study the phenomena that occur when CNT yarns are integrated in polymeric and composite materials and structures.

Deep learning has achieved lots of successes in many fields, but when trainable sample are extremely limited, deep learning often under or overfitting to few samples. Meta-learning was proposed to solve difficulties in few-shot learning and fast adaptive areas. Meta-learner learns to remember some common knowledge by training on large scale tasks sampled from a certain data distribution to equip generalization when facing unseen new tasks. Due to the limitation of samples, most approaches only use shallow neural network to avoid overfitting and reduce the difficulty of training process, that causes the waste of many extra information when adapting to unseen tasks. Euclidean space-based gradient descent also make meta-learner's update inaccurate. These issues cause many meta-learning model hard to extract feature from samples and update network parameters. In this paper, we propose a novel method by using multi-stage joint training approach to post the bottleneck during adapting process. To accelerate adapt procedure, we also constraint network to Stiefel manifold, thus meta-learner could perform more stable gradient descent in limited steps. Experiment on mini-ImageNet shows that our method reaches better accuracy under 5-way 1-shot and 5-way 5-shot conditions.

This paper presents an alternative constraint handling approach within a specialized genetic algorithm (SGA) for the optimal reactive power dispatch (ORPD) problem. The ORPD is formulated as a nonlinear single-objective optimization problem aiming to minimize power losses while keeping network constraints. The proposed constraint handling approach is based on a product of sub-functions that represents permissible limits on system variables and that includes a specific goal on power loss reduction. The main advantage of this approach is the fact that it allows a straightforward verification of both feasibility and optimality. The SGA is examined and tested with the proposed constraint handling approach and the traditional penalization of deviations from feasible solutions. Several tests are run in the IEEE 30, 57, 118 and 300 bus test power systems. The results obtained with the proposed approach are compared to those offered by other metaheuristic techniques reported in the specialized literature. Simulation results indicate that the proposed genetic algorithm with the alternative constraint handling approach yields superior solutions when compared to other recently reported techniques.

In order to understand the hot deformation behavior of novel Cu/Al laminated composites, isothermal hot compression tests were conducted by Gleeble-1500D thermo-mechanical simulator. And the effect of bonding interface, deformation temperature and strain rate on the deformation behavior was analyzed. Results show that under the interface constraint effect, soft Al layer trends to flow synchronously with hard Cu layer. And further microstructure examinations indicate the cooperative deformation capability of Cu/Al composites increases with increasing stain rate and decreasing deformation temperature. Strain hardening exponent, calculated based on the true stress-true strain data, also proves the effect of deformation temperature and strain rate on the cooperative deformation behavior. Meanwhile, unique composites structure allows the Al matrix to exhibit the characteristic of dynamic recrystallization during the hot deformation process. Lastly, strain compensated Arrhenius-type constitutive equation was employed to describe the coupling effect of temperature, strain rate and strain on the flow stress.

Distributions with bounded support show considerable sparsity over those with unbounded support, despite the fact that there are a number of real-world contexts where observations take values from a bounded range (proportions, percentages, and fractions are typical examples). For proportion modelling, a flexible family of two-parameter distribution functions associated with the exponential distribution is proposed here. Mathematical and statistical properties of the novel distribution are examined, including quantiles, mode, moments, hazard rate function, and its characterization. The parameter estimation procedure using the maximum likelihood method was carried out, and applications to environmental and engineering data were also considered. To this end, various statistical tests are used, along with some other information criterion indicators to determine how well the model fits the data. The proposed model is found to be the most efficient plan in most cases for the datasets considered.

One of creators of quantum mechanics P. Jordan in his work on quantum biology claimed that life's missing laws were the rules of chance and probability of the quantum world. The article presents author’s results of studying frequencies (or probabilities) of nucleotides on so-called epi-chains of long DNA sequences of various eukaryotic and prokaryotic genomes. DNA epi-chains are algorithmically constructed subsequencies of DNA nucleotide sequences. According to the algorithm of construction of any epi-chain of the order n, the epi-chain is such nucleotide subsequence, in which the numerations of adjacent nucleotides differ by natural number n (n = 1, 2, 3, 4,…). Correspondingly each epi-chain of order n ≥ 2 contains n times less nucleotides than the original DNA sequence. The presented results unexpectedly discover that in long single-stranded and double-stranded DNA of any tested genome its DNA epi-chains of different orders n (values n are not too large) have practically identical frequencies (or probabilities) of each kind of nucleotides. These data allow considering DNA as a regular rich set of epi-chains, which can play a certain role in genetic and epigenetic phenomena as the author belives. Appropriate rules of nucleotide frequencies on epi-chains of long DNA sequences are formulated for further their tests on a wider set of genomes. These results testify on existence of long-range coherence in long DNA and remind the Fröhlich's theory of long-range coherence in biological systems. The phenomenological data are discussed from different standpoints: the DNA double helices and helical antennas with circular polarizations of electromagnetic waves; relations with the Fröhlich's theory; numerical analysis of DNA epi-chains under binary representations of nucleotides. Results are useful for developing quantum and algebraic biology.

We give two examples of the appearance of heavy-tailed distributions in applications to social sciences. Among these distributions are the laws of Pareto, Lotka, and some new ones. The examples are illustrated by constructing suitable toy models.

This article presents six probability distributions from the Gamma family with three parameters, for the flood frequency analysis in hydrology. The choice of the Gamma family of statistical dis-tributions was driven by its frequent use in hydrology. In the Faculty of Hydrotechnics, the im-provement of the estimation of maximum flows and including the methodological bases for the realization of a regionalization study with the linear moments method with the corrected pa-rameters was researched, being an element of novelty. The linear moments method is better than MOM because it avoids the choice of skewness depending on the origin of the flows, practiced in Romania. The L-moments method conforms to the current trend for estimating the parameters of statistical distributions. Observed data from hydrometric stations are of relatively short length, so the statistical parameters that characterize them are of a sample that requires correction. The correction of the statistical parameters is proposed, using the method of least squares based on the inverse functions of the statistical distributions expressed with the frequency factor for L-moments. All the necessary elements for their use are presented like, quantile functions, the exact and ap-proximate relations for estimating parameters and frequency factors. A flood frequency analysis case study was carried out for the Ialomita river, to verify the proposed methodology. The per-formance of this distributions is evaluated using Kiling-Gupta and Nash-Sutcliff coefficients.

Estimating the parameters of statistical distributions generally involves solving a system of nonlinear equations or a nonlinear equation, being a technical difficulty in their usual application in hydrology. This article presents improved approximations and, in some cases, new approximations for the estimation with the method of ordinary moments and the method of linear moments, which are useful for the direct calculation of the parameters, because the errors in the approximate estimation are similar to the use of iterative numerical methods. Thirteen statistical distributions of two and three parameters frequently used in hydrology are presented, for which parameter estimation was laborious. Thus, the approximate estimation of the parameters by the two methods is simple but also precise and easily applicable by hydrology researchers. The approximate forms characterized by very small errors are the result of the research conducted within the Faculty of Hydrotechnics to update the romanian normative standards in the hydrotechnical field.

Probability is an open question in the ontological interpretation of quantum mechanics. It has been discussed in some trajectory interpretations such as Bohmian mechanics and stochastic mechanics. New questions arise when the domain of probability extends to the complex space, including the generation of complex trajectories, the definition of the complex probability, the relation of the complex probability to the real quantum probability, and so on. The complex treatment proposed here applies the optimal quantum guidance law to derive the stochastic differential (SD) equation governing the particle’s random motions in the complex plane. The ensemble of the complex quantum random trajectories (CQRTs) solved from the complex SD equation is used to construct the probability distribution ρc(t,x,y) of the particle’s position over the complex plane z=x+iy. The correctness of the obtained complex probability is confirmed by the solution of the complex Fokker-Planck equation. The significant contribution of the complex probability is that it can be used to reconstruct both quantum probability and classical probability, and to clarify their relationship. Although quantum probability and classical probability are both defined on the real axis, they are obtained by projecting complex probability onto the real axis in different ways. This difference explains why the quantum probability cannot exactly converge to the classical probability when the quantum number is large.

To generate a probability density function (PDF) for fitting probability distributions of real data, this study proposes a deep learning method which consists of two stages: (1) a training stage for estimating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) and (2) a performing stage for predicting the corresponding PDF. The CDFs of common probability distributions can be adopted as activation functions in the hidden layers of the proposed deep learning model for learning actual cumulative probabilities, and the differential equation of trained deep learning model can be used to estimate the PDF. To evaluate the proposed method, numerical experiments with single and mixed distributions are performed. The experimental results show that the values of both CDF and PDF can be precisely estimated by the proposed method.

Electricity distribution network operators face several operational constraints in the provision of safe and reliable power given that investments for network area reinforcement must be commensurate with improvements in network reliability. This paper provides an integrated approach for assessing the impact of different operational constraints on distribution network reliability by incorporating component lifetime models, time-varying component failure rates as well as the monetary cost of customer interruptions in an all-inclusive probabilistic methodology that applies a time-sequential Monte Carlo simulation. A test distribution network based on the Roy Billinton test system is modelled to investigate the system performance when overloading limits are exceeded as well as when preventive maintenance is performed. Standard reliability indices measuring the frequency and duration of interruptions, and the energy not supplied are complemented with a novel monetary reliability index. The comprehensive assessment includes not only average indices but also their probability distributions to adequately describe the risk of customer interruptions. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of this holistic approach as the impacts of operational decisions are assessed from both reliability and monetary perspectives. This informs network planning decisions through optimum investments and consideration of customer outage costs.

: Following the phenomenal growth of and competition among coffee chain retailers, the coffee chain market has expanded substantially thanks to rising income levels, the increasing young population, and rapidly changing lifestyles. Attracting consumers’ attention and enhancing their loyalty behaviors have become very difficult for coffee chain retailers. This study seeks to understand the mechanisms through which emotions and the dedication-constraint model lead to brand loyalty and willingness to pay more to certain coffee chain retailers. Emotions and the dedication-constraint model are major factors in the research, but few studies have combined them to examine the formation of loyalty behaviors. This study synthesizes emotional responses and the dedication-constraint model to develop a theoretical model. Based on the ambivalent view of emotions, it also examines how positive and negative emotions affect the combination of brand loyalty and willingness to pay more to certain coffee chain retailers. Moreover, it identifies the antecedents of affective and calculative commitments in the context of coffee chain retailers. Our findings indicate that loyalty behaviors (dedication- and constraint-based mechanisms from brand loyalty and willingness to pay more to certain coffee chain retailers), emotional responses, and affective and calculative commitments significantly affect brand loyalty directly and indirectly through both positive and negative emotions. Furthermore, service quality, physical environment quality, and price fairness significantly affect affective commitments, while price fairness significantly affects both affective and calculative commitments. Finally, affective and calculative commitments significantly affect willingness to pay more, both directly and indirectly, through positive emotions and affect it directly through negative emotions. The results’ theoretical and managerial implications and possible future research directions are discussed.

With the renewed interest for lunar surface exploration, the European Space Agency envisions to stimulate the creation of lunar communications and navigation services (LCNS) to enable, among others, autonomous navigation capabilities for lunar rovers. As the number of satellites foreseen in such a service is much smaller compared to Earth based global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), different complementary technologies are pursued to improve the attainable navigation accuracy for lunar rovers. One way to improve the position accuracy provided by the LCNS satellites is to constrain the vertical position using a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM). This article presents the results of a variance covariance analysis of an extended Kalman filter (EKF) implementation in which the LCNS ranging measurements are used together with DEM from the LRO LOLA instrument. Assuming a realistic orbit determination and time synchronization (ODTS) accuracy of the LCNS satellites, the usage of a navigation grade IMU and an oven controlled crystal oscillator (OCXO), a 3-sigma position accuracy of less than 10 meters can be obtained. Furthermore, the availability is substantially improved as the DEM aided solution enables a position solution in case of only 3 visible satellites.

Research for a theory of quantum gravity has recently led to the use of presheaf topos. Quantum uncertainty is linked to the truth values of intuitionistic logic. This paper proposes transposing this model into a classic probability context, that of conditional mathematical expectations. A simulation of Brownian motion is offered for illustrative purposes.

Considering that a fair coin has two sides and a cylindrical edge, the probability that it would fall on its edge is calculated, yielding the probability of heads or tails less than 50%. Theoretical models for a static case and for five dynamic cases, without and with rebounds, show that there is a small probability that the coin does not fall on its head or tail, depending on initial toss conditions, the coin geometry and conditions of the coin and landing surfaces. For the dynamic model with rebounds, it is found that the probability that a 50 Eurocent coin thrown from a normal height with common initial velocity conditions and appropriate surface conditions will end up on its edge is in the order of one against several thousand.

This paper aims to describe the geometrical structure and explicit expressions of family of finitely parametrized probability densities over smooth manifold $M$. The geometry of family of probability densities on $M$ are inherited from probability densities on Euclidean spaces $\left\{U_\alpha \right\}$ via bundle morphisms, induced by an orientation-preserving diffeomorphisms $\rho_\alpha:U_\alpha \rightarrow M$. Current literature inherits densities on $M$ from tangent spaces via Riemannian exponential map $\exp: T_x M \rightarrow M$; densities on $M$ are defined locally on region where the exponential map is a diffeomorphism. We generalize this approach with an arbitrary orientation-preserving bundle morphism; we show that the dualistic geometry of family of densities on $U_\alpha$ can be inherited to family of densities on $M$. Furthermore, we provide explicit expressions for parametrized probability densities on $\rho_\alpha(U_\alpha) \subset M$. Finally, using the component densities on $\rho_\alpha(U_\alpha)$, we construct parametrized mixture densities on totally bounded subsets of $M$. We provide a description of inherited mixture product dualistic geometry of the family of mixture densities.

We show the tensor properties of joint probabilities on a Riemannian parametric manifold. Initially we develop a binary data matrix for parameter measurements of a large number of particles confining in a closed system in order to retrieve the joint probability densities of related parameters. By introducing a new generalized inner product as a multilinear operation on dual basis of parametric space, we extract the set of joint probabilities and prove them to meet contravariant tensor properties in a general Riemannian parametric space. We show these contravariant tensors reduce to classical ordinary partial derivatives definition in ordinary Euclidean parametric space. Finally we prove by a theorem that symmetrized iterative contravariant derivative of cumulative probability function on Riemannian manifold gives the set of joint probabilities in those manifold. We bring some examples for compatibility with physical tensors.

High-precision dynamic positioning of highway vehicles is the foundation and prerequisite for achieving intelligent connected transportation. For the shortcomings of GNSS/INS combination and GNSS/INS/OD combination in tunnel vehicle positioning, this paper proposes a tunnel vehi-cle positioning method of GNSS/INS/OD combination based on lateral distance measurement and lane constraint. Firstly, lateral distance measurement of vehicles inside the tunnel is conducted based on laser radar point cloud data. Secondly, map matching positioning is performed based on lateral distance measurement, odometer, and lane markings. Experimental results demonstrate that for a 4.6 km tunnel, the average absolute error of lateral positioning is 0.294 meters, and the longitudinal positioning error is no more than 0.6 meters, which can effectively meet practical operational requirements.

Continuous Distributed Constraint Optimization Problem (C-DCOPs) are a powerful framework to model problems with continuous variables in multi-agent systems. Previous works about C-DCOP algorithms mainly use pseudo-trees to guarantee the anytime property or are without anytime property guarantees. However, there is a risk of privacy leakage in the pseudo-tree due to utility passing between agents. Therefore, based on the basic constraint graph instead of the pseudo-tree, we (i) extend the Maximum Gain Message (MGM) algorithm by combining the local search strategy to solve C-DCOPs, named Continuous MGM (C-MGM), and it’s able to guarantee the monotonicity of the solution quality; (ii) propose a Parallel C-MGM (C-PMGM) algorithm to improve the solution quality through parallel random search; and (iii) introduce the differential search into C-PMGM to design a Parallel Differential Search C-MGM (C-PDSM) algorithm, which constructs a heuristic method to speed up convergence and improve solution quality. Compared to other anytime C-DCOP algorithms using pseudo-trees, the proposed three algorithms can exhibit better performance in avoiding privacy violations. We theoretically prove that the proposed algorithms are the anytime algorithms and empirically demonstrate that our algorithms outperform the state-of-the-art C-DCOP algorithms.

Computers have evolved over the years and as the evolution continues, we have been ushered into an era where high-speed internet has made it possible for devices in our homes, hospital, energy and industry to communicate with each other. This era is what is known as the Internet of Things (IoT). IoT has several benefits in the health, energy, transportation and agriculture sectors of a country’s economy. These enormous benefits coupled with the computational constraint of IoT devices which makes it difficult to deploy enhanced security protocols on them make IoT devices a target of cyber-attacks. One approach that has been used in traditional computing over the years to fight cyber-attacks is Intrusion Detection System (IDS). However, it is practically impossible to deploy IDS meant for traditional computers in IoT environments because of the computational constraint of these devices. In this regard, this study proposes a lightweight IDS for IoT devices using an incremental ensemble learning technique. We used Gaussian Naive Bayes and Hoeffding tree to build our incremental ensemble model. The model was then evaluated on the TON IoT dataset. Our proposed model was compared with other state-of-the-art methods proposed and evaluated using the same dataset. The experimental results show that the proposed model achieved an average accuracy of 99.98\%. We also evaluated the memory consumption of our model which showed that our model achieved a lightweight model status of 650.11KB as the highest memory consumption and 122.38KB as the lowest memory consumption.

At present, indoor localization is one of the core technologies of location-based services (LBS), and there exist numerous scenario-oriented application solutions. Visual features, as the main semantic information to help people understand the environment and thus occupy the dominant part, many techniques about indoor scene recognition are widely adopted. However, the engineering application problem of cell phone indoor scene recognition and localization has not been well solved due to insufficient semantic constraint information of building map and the immaturity of building map location anchors (MLA) matching positioning technology. To address the above problems, this paper proposes a cell phone indoor scene recognition and localization method with building map semantic constraints. Firstly, we build a library of geocoded entities for building map location anchors (MLA), which can provide users with "immersive" real-world building maps on the one hand and semantic anchor point constraints for cell phone positioning on the other. Secondly, using the improved YOLOv5s deep learning model carried on the mobile terminal, we recognize the universal map location anchors (MLA) elements in building scenes by cell phone camera video in real-time. Lastly, the spatial location of the scene elements obtained from the cell phone video recognition is matched with the building MLA to achieve real-time positioning and navigation. The experimental results show that the model recognition accuracy of this method is above 97.2%, and the maximum localization error is within the range of 0.775 m, and minimized to 0.5 m after applying the BIMPN road network walking node constraint, which can effectively achieve high positioning accuracy in the building scenes with rich MLA element information. In addition, the building map location anchors (MLA) has universal characteristics, and the positioning algorithm based on scene element recognition is compatible with the extension of indoor map data types, so this method has good prospects for engineering applications.

A basic pattern in the body plan architecture of many animals, plants and some molecular and cellular systems is five-part units. This pattern has been understood as a result of genetic blueprints in development and as a widely conserved evolutionary character. Despite some efforts, a definitive explanation of the abundance of pentagonal symmetry at so many levels of complexity is still missing. Based on both, a computational platform and a statistical spatial organization argument, we show that five-fold morphology is substantially different from other abundant symmetries like three-fold, four-fold and six-fold symmetries in terms of spatial interacting elements. We develop a measuring system to determine levels of spatial organization in 2D polygons (homogeneous or heterogeneous partition of defined areas) based in principles of regularity in a morphospace. We found that spatial organization of five-fold symmetry is statistically higher than all other symmetries studied here (three to ten-fold symmetries) in terms of spatial homogeneity. The significance of our findings is based on the statistical constancy of geometrical constraints derived from spatial organization of shapes, beyond the material or complexity level of the many different systems where pentagonal symmetry occurs.

We start with the discussion on misapplication of classical probability theory by Feynman in his analysis of the two slit experiment (by following the critical argumentation of Koopman, Ballentine, and the author of this paper). The seed of Feynman's conclusion on the impossibility to apply the classical probabilistic description for the two slit experiment is treatment of conditional probabilities corresponding to different experimental contexts as unconditional ones. Then we move to the Bell type inequalities. Bell applied classical probability theory in the same manner as Feynman and, as can be expected, he also obtained the impossibility statement. In contrast to Feynman, he formulated his no-go statement not in the probabilistic terms, but by appealing to nonlocality. This note can be considered as a part of the author's attempts for getting rid off nonlocality from quantum physics.

In this work, we derive the spectral efficiency, secrecy outage probability, and bit error rate of a communication system assisted by a large intelligent surface (LIS). We consider a single-antenna user and an array of antennas at the transmitter side and the possibility of a direct link between transmitter and receiver. Additionally, there is a single-antenna eavesdropper with a direct link to the transmitter, which is modeled as a Nakagami-m distributed fading coefficient. The channels from transmitter to the LIS and from the LIS to the user may or may not have the line-of-sight (LoS) and are modeled by the Nakagami- m distribution. Moreover, we assume that the LIS elements perform non-ideal phase cancellation leading to a residual phase error that assumes a Von Mises distribution. We show that the resulting channel can be accurately approximated by a Gamma distribution whose parameters are analytically estimated using the moments of the equivalent signal-to-noise ratio. We also provide an upper bound for the error probability for M-QAM modulations. With the derived formulas, we analyze the effect of the strength of the LoS link by varying the Nakagami parameter, m.

Given the increase in consumers’ preferences for coffee, it is becoming important to understand their decision-making processes in the coffee chain context. To deepen the understanding of sustainable outcomes in this context, this study investigates the role of dedication- and constraint-based mechanisms in forming consumers’ repurchase and positive word-of-mouth (WOM) intentions, two critical sustainable outcomes. We examined the effects of coffee quality, the quality of the physical environment, and service quality in accelerating the formation of dedication-based factors. Moreover, this study offers an in-depth understanding of the enablers of perceived switching costs. Data collected from 238 university students that frequently visit coffee chains are empirically tested against the proposed theoretical framework by using structural equation modeling. The results confirm that both dedication- and constraint-based factors substantially predict consumers’ sustainable outcomes in the coffee chain context. Brand image and perceived switching costs play an important role in enhancing consumers’ repurchase and positive WOM intentions compared with customer satisfaction. Coffee quality is significantly associated with both customer satisfaction and brand image, whereas the quality of the physical environment and service quality are only significantly associated with brand image. Habit is found to be the key enabler of perceived switching costs, while loyalty programs have no significant impact on perceived switching costs.

In this paper, we present a rigorous proof demonstrating the stabilization of percolation probability in supercritical regimes for percolation models. We analyze a sequence of expanding compact balls in ℝ

We prove that the probability of “A OR B”, where A and B are events or hypotheses that are recursively dependent (OR is the logico-probabilistic operator) is given by a "Hyperbolic Sum Rule” (HSR) relation isomorphic to the hyperbolic-tangent double-angle formula, and that this HSR is Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). The possibility of recursive probabilities is excluded by the “Conventional Sum Rule” (CSR) which we also prove MaxEnt (within its narrower domain of applicability). The concatenation property of the HSR is exploited to enable analytical, consistent and scalable calculations for multiple recursive hypotheses: such calculations are not conveniently available for the CSR, and are also intrinsic to current artificial intelligence and machine learning architectures presently considered intractable to analytical study and methodological validation. We also show that it is as reasonable to state that “probability is physical” (it is not merely a mathematical construct) as it is to state that “information is physical” (now recognised as a truism of communications network engineering). We relate this treatment to the physics of Quantitative Geometrical Thermodynamics which is defined in complex hyperbolic (Minkowski) spacetime, and show how the HSR is isomorphic to other physical quantities including certain components important for digital signal processing.

This paper presents the tensor properties of joint probability densities on a Riemannian manifold. Initially we develop a binary data matrix to record variables' values of a large number of particles confining in a closed system at a certain time in order to retrieve the joint probability densities of related variables. By introducing the particle oriented coordinate and generalized inner product as a multi-linear operation on the basis of this coordinate, we extract the set of joint probabilities and prove them to meet covariant tensor properties on a general Riemannian space of variables. Based on the Taylor expansion of scalar field in Riemannian manifolds, it has been shown that the symmetrized iterative covariant derivatives of cumulative probability function defined on Riemannian manifold also gives the set of related joint probability densities equivalent to the aforementioned multi-linear method. We show these covariant tensors reduce to classical ordinary partial derivatives in ordinary Euclidean space with Cartesian coordinates and gives the formal definition of joint probabilities by partial derivatives of cumulative distribution function. The equivalence between symmetrized covariant derivative and generalized inner product has been concluded. Some examples of well-known physical tensors clarify that many deterministic physical variables are presented as tensor densities with an interpretation similar to probability densities.

The evolution of even and odd Schrödinger cat states of the inverted oscillator is obtained in the center-of-mass tomographic probability description of the two-mode oscillator.The notion of entangled probability distribution is reviewed. Evolution equations describing the time-dependence of probability distributions identified with quantum system states are discussed.The connection with the Schrödinger equation and the von Neumann equation is clarified.

This article analyzes 6 probability distributions from the Generalized Pareto family, with 3, 4 and 5 parameters, with main purpose to identify other distributions from this family with applicability in flood frequency analysis compared to the distribution already used in the literature from this family such as Generalized Pareto Type II and Wakeby. This analysis is part of a larger and more complex research carried out in the Faculty of Hydrotechnics regarding the elaboration of a norm for flood frequency analysis using the linear moments method. In Romania, the standard method of parameter estimation is the method of ordinary moments, thus the transition from this method to the method of linear moments is desired. All the necessary elements for the distributions use are presented like, the probability density functions, the complementary cumulative distribution functions, the quantile functions, the exact and approximate relations for estimating parameters, for both methods of parameters estimation. All these elements are necessary for a proper transition between the two methods, especially since the use of the method of ordinary moments is done by choosing the skewness of the observed data depending on the origin of the maximum flows. A flood frequency analysis case study, using annual maximum and annual exceedance series, was carried out for the Prigor river, to numerically present the analyzed distributions. The performance of this distributions is evaluated using relative mean error, relative absolute error and linear moments diagram.

Most existing flexible count regression models allow only approximate inference. This work proposes a new framework to provide an exact and flexible alternative for modeling and simulating count data with various types of dispersion (equi-, under- and overdispersion). The new method, referred as “balanced discretization”, consists in discretizing continuous probability distributions while preserving expectations. It is easy to generate pseudo random variates from the resulting balanced discrete distribution since it has a simple stochastic representation in terms of the continuous distribution. For illustrative purposes, we have developed the family of balanced discrete gamma distributions which can model equi-, under- and overdispersed count data. This family of count distributions is appropriate for building flexible count regressionmodels because the expectation of the distribution has a simple expression in terms of the parameters of the distribution. Using the Jensen–Shannon divergence measure, we have shown that under equidispersion restriction, the family of balanced discrete gamma distributions is similar to the Poisson distribution. Based on this, we conjecture that while covering all types of dispersion, a count regression model based on the balanced discrete gamma distribution will allow recovering a near Poisson distribution model fit when the data is Poisson distributed.

In this article we explore the limiting behavior of the universal prior distribution obtained when applied over multiple meta-level hierarchy of programs and output data of a computational automata model. We were motivated to alleviate the effect of Solomonoff's assumption that all computable functions or hypotheses of the same length are equally likely, by weighing each program in turn by the algorithmic probability of their description number encoding. In the limiting case, the set of all possible program strings of a fixed-length converges to a distribution of self-replicating quines and quine-relays - having the structure of a constructor. We discuss how experimental algorithmic information theory provides insights towards understanding the fundamental metrics proposed in this work and reflect on the significance of these result in digital physics and the constructor theory of life.

In recent years, the abundance of streaming data has posed significant challenges for traditional machine learning algorithms due to the dynamic nature and high volume of data. To address these challenges, this paper presents an adaptive supervised learning framework designed for data streams, leveraging the power of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) while incorporating a data sparsity constraint. The proposed framework aims to adaptively update the model to efficiently handle the continuous arrival of streaming data while ensuring accurate and reliable predictions. The primary objective is to exploit the RKHS framework, which provides a rich mathematical structure for learning in high-dimensional feature spaces. By utilizing RKHS, the model can capture complex patterns and nonlinear relationships in the streaming data. Furthermore, the framework incorporates a data sparsity constraint to address the issue of limited resources and computational efficiency. The constraint promotes the selection of a subset of relevant features, reducing the dimensionality of the problem and enhancing the scalability of the learning algorithm. This constraint not only improves computational efficiency but also mitigates the effects of noisy or irrelevant features, leading to more robust and accurate predictions. To achieve adaptability, the proposed framework employs an online learning approach that incrementally updates the model parameters as new data arrives. This allows the model to adapt to concept drift and changing data distributions, ensuring its relevance and effectiveness over time. The adaptation process is guided by a mechanism that balances the exploitation of current knowledge with the exploration of new information, enabling the model to gradually evolve and refine its predictions. Experimental evaluations on various benchmark datasets demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed framework in handling streaming data. The results indicate that the adaptive supervised learning approach in RKHS with a data sparsity constraint outperforms traditional batch learning methods and exhibits superior accuracy, scalability, and adaptability in dynamic data stream scenarios. Overall, this research contributes to the development of adaptive supervised learning methods for data streams, highlighting the effectiveness of RKHS and the significance of incorporating a data sparsity constraint. The proposed framework offers a promising solution to handle the challenges posed by streaming data, paving the way for real-time, efficient, and accurate learning in diverse application domains.

This paper develops Bayesian inference in reliability of a class of scale mixtures of log-normal failure time (SMLNFT) models with stochastic (or uncertain) constraint in their reliability measures. The class is comprehensive and includes existing failure time (FT) models (such as log-normal, log-Cauchy, and log-logistic FT models) as well as new models that are robust in terms of heavy-tailed FT observations. Since classical frequency approaches to reliability analysis based on the SMLNFT model with stochastic constraint are intractable, the Bayesian method is pursued utilizing a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling based approach. This paper introduces a two-stage maximum entropy (MaxEnt) prior, which elicits a priori uncertain constraint and develops Bayesian hierarchical SMLNFT model by using the prior. The paper also proposes an MCMC method for Bayesian inference in the SMLNFT model reliability and calls attention to properties of the MaxEnt prior that are useful for method development. Finally, two data sets are used to illustrate how the proposed methodology works.

Neuronal timing is critical for many brain functions such as perception and learning. At the level of the chemical synapse, the synaptic delay is determined by the presynaptic release probability (Pr) and the waveform of the presynaptic action potential (AP). Depolarization-induced analogue-digital facilitation (d-ADF) is a form of context-dependent synaptic facilitation that is induced by constant depolarization of the presynaptic neuron and is mediated by voltage inactivation of presynaptic Kv1 channels. Whether synaptic delay is modulated during d-ADF remains unclear. We show here that despite Pr is elevated during d-ADF at L5-L5 synapses, the synaptic delay is surprisingly unchanged, suggesting that both Pr- and AP-dependent changes in synaptic delay compensate for each other. We conclude that in contrast with other short- or long-term modulation of presynaptic release, timing is not affected during d-ADF because of the opposite interaction of Pr- and AP-dependent modulations of synaptic delay.

Understanding swash zone dynamics is of crucial importance for coastal management as the swash motion, consisting of the uprush of the wave on the beach face and the subsequent downrush, is responsible for driving changes the beach morphology trough sediment exchanges between the sub-aerial and sub-aqueous beach. Improved understanding of the probabilistic characteristics of these motions has the potential to allow coastal engineers to develop improved sediment transport models which, in turn, can be further developed into coastal management tools. In this paper, novel descriptors of swash motions are obtained by combining field data and statistical modelling. Our results indicate that the probability distribution function (PDF) of shoreline height (p(ζ)) and trough-to-peak swash heights (p(ρ)) measured at a high energy, sandy beach were both inherently multimodal. Based on the observed multimodality of these PDFs, Gaussian Mixtures are shown to be the best method to statistically model them. Further, our results show that both offshore and surf zone dynamics are responsible for driving swash zone dynamics, which indicates unsaturated swash. The novel methods and results developed in this paper, both data collection and analysis, could aid coastal managers to develop improved swash zone models in the future.

Monitoring seaweed growth rates and biomass is crucial for optimizing harvest strategies in aquaculture systems. While such a task can be performed manually on a small farm, such as the Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA) system at Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute at Florida Atlantic University (HBOI), a commercial farm will have to rely on the automated sensor to perform such a task. This study introduces an advanced LSTM-based approach for forecasting seaweed growth and biomass. Utilizing a combination of real and synthetic data, LSTM models are trained and evaluated for their predictive performance. Synthetic sensor data was generated using mathematical equations that simulate realistic aquaculture conditions, with added noise to reflect sensor variability. Building on the foundation of the Pseudorandom Encoded Light for Evaluating Biomass (PEEB) sensor deployed at the seaweed tank in the HBOI IMTA system, we refine the process of biomass estimation by introducing non-linear regression models for predicting seaweed growth and biomass. The results showed that the LSTM model trained with a loss function under physics constraint, combining MSE and physical laws, outperformed models trained with MSE alone, achieving a significantly lower error in predicting seaweed growth. The variation trend of the predicted biomass from the network matched well with the sensor measurement after moving average preprocessing, demonstrating the robustness of the proposed technique in handling noisy sensor data. This study highlights the potential of integrating machine learning with physical models to optimize seaweed cultivation and support sustainable aquaculture practices.

Using a simple model for internal heat evolution and mass-internal heat relations found for rocky exo planetary objects in the inner solar system we have inferred the phases of volcanism at earth ( EA) or host star ages (SA) in 52 potentially habitable rocky exo planets. We have also calculated the internal tidal heat contributions and magnetic moments of these exo planets. Based on these results we have inferred the probability of existence of life favouring geophysical conditions in the above exo planets at EA and SA. In M star associated exo planets, occurrences of super flares and long night periods may pose problems for the development of advanced life

This study investigates the impact of temperature-induced quantum proton tunneling probability on DNA amplification during polymerase chain reactions (PCR). Using a simulation model based on a Gaussian wavefunction and finite-difference time-domain method, quantum tunneling of protons across square potential barriers is examined. The results unveil consistent probability distributions for quantum tunneling across various PCR temperatures, with distinct oscillation patterns emerging post-barrier crossing. Acknowledging limitations in initial conditions due to temperature-dependent proton energy, the study highlights the need for refined models and experimental validation. These findings accentuate the potential interplay between quantum mechanics and biological systems, prompting further research to understand quantum tunnelling’s comprehensive effect on genetic variations and molecular processes.

The interaction between oceanographic, meteorological, and hydrological factors can result in an extreme flooding scenario in the low-lying coastal area, called compound flooding (CF) events. For instance, rainfall and storm surge (or high river discharge) can be driven by the same meteorological, tropical or extra-tropical cyclones, resulting in a CF phenomenon. The trivariate distributional framework can significantly explain compound events' statistical behaviour reducing the associated high-impact flood risk. Resolving heterogenous dependency of the multidimensional CF events by incorporating traditional 3-D symmetric or fully nested Archimedean copula is quite complex. The main challenge is to preserve all lower-level dependencies. An approach based on decomposing the full multivariate density into simple local building blocks via conditional independence called vine or pair-copulas is a much more comprehensive way of approximating the trivariate flood dependence structure. In this study, a parametric vine copula of a drawable (D-vine) structure is introduced in the trivariate modelling of flooding events with 46 years of observations of the west Coast of Canada. This trivariate framework searches dependency by combining the joint impact of annual maximum 24-hr rainfall and the highest storm surge and river discharge observed within the time ±1 day of the highest rainfall event. The D-vine structures are constructed in three alternative ways by permutation of the conditioning variables. The most appropriate D-vine structure is selected using the fitness test statistics and estimating trivariate joint and conditional joint return periods. The investigation confirms that the D-vine copula can effectively define the compound phenomenon's dependency. The failure probability (FP) method is also adopted in assessing the trivariate hydrologic risk. It is observed that hydrologic events defined in the trivariate case produce higher FP than in the bivariate (or univariate) case. It is also concluded that hydrologic risk increases (i) with an increase in the service design life of the hydraulic facilities and (ii) with a decrease in return periods.

Both macro and microprojectiles (e.g., interplanetary, interstellar and even intergalactic material) are seen as important vehicles for the exchange of potential (bio)material within our solar system as well as between stellar systems in our Galaxy. Accordingly, this requires estimates of the impact probabilities for different source populations of projectiles, including for intergalactic meteor particles which have received relatively little attention since considered as rare events (discrete occurrences that are statistically improbable due to their very infrequent appearance). We employ the simple but comprehensive model of intergalactic microprojectile capture by the gravity of exoplanets which enables us to estimate the map of collisional probabilities for an available sample of exoplanets in habitable zones around host stars. The model includes a dynamical description of the capture adopted from Mautner model of interstellar exchange of microparticles and changed for our purposes. We use statistical and information metrics to calculate probability map of intergalactic meteorite particle capture. Moreover, by calculating the entropy index map we estimate the concentration of these rare events. We further adopted a model from immigration theory, to show that the time dependent distribution of single molecule immigration of material indicates high survivability of the immigrated material taking into account birth and death processes on our planet. At present immigration of material can not be observationally constrained but it seems reasonable to think that it will be possible in the near future, and to use it along other proposed parameters for life sustainability on some planet.

This paper introduces an approach that chooses the fault detection by calculating probabilities using probability mass function (pmf) and cumulative distribution function (CDF). This work used a method for multiple stuck-at faults by producing a new test pattern in combinational circuits. We assumed that existence of all multiple faults is only because of one single component that is faulty. A complete test set can be created by all possible single stuck-at faults in a combinational circuit using some combination of gates. The test set generation fault detection method is applied on two different 3-bit input variable and 4-bit input variable circuits. The probability of error occurrence is calculated at both 3-bit and 4-bit input variable circuits. The resulting feature is used to obtain maximum error occurrence probability to detect faults by the logic used that the complexity of the circuit is inversely proportional to the fault occurrence probability. Then again, undetectability is directly proportional to the complexity of the circuit. Therefore, finest feasible circuit should have large input variable components with less complexity to reduce the fault occurrence probability.

Cartels cause tremendous damage to the market economy and disadvantage consumers by causing higher prices and lower quality; moreover, they are difficult to detect. We need to prevent them by scientific analysis, which includes the determination of an indicator to explain antitrust enforcement. Particularly, the probability of cartel penalization is a useful indicator for the evaluation of the competition enforcement. This study is to estimate the probability of cartel penalization by using a Bayesian approach. In the empirical study, the probability of cartel penalization is estimated by Bayesian approach from cartel data of Department of Justice in United States from 1970 to 2009. The probability of cartel penalization is seen to be sensitive to change of competition law and the results shows the usefulness of higher interpretation than other research. The result of the policy simulation shows how effective the leniency program is. From this estimation, antitrust enforcement is evaluated, and thereby, can be improved.

Scheduling and optimization have a central place in the research area of computing because it is increasingly important to achieve fully automated production processes to adjust manufacturing systems to the requirements of Industry 4.0. In this paper, we demonstrate how an automated wet-etch scheduling problem for a semiconductor industry can be solved by constraint answer set programming (CASP) and, its solver called clingcon. The considered scheduling problem includes a robot for lot transfers between the baths. CASP is a hybrid approach in automated reasoning that combines different research areas such as answer set programming, Constraint Processing and Satisfiability Modulo Theories. For a long time, exact methods such as constraint programming have displayed difficulties in solving real large-scale problem instances. Currently, the performance of state-of-the-art constrains solvers is comparatively better than a decade ago, and some complex combinatorial problems can be optimally solved. These theoretical and technical achievements open new horizons for declarative programming applications such as logistics. A successful solution to this problem is achieved and we found that in most cases tested, CASP is faster and obtains in most cases similar makespan values than solutions based on mixed integer linear programming and constraint paradigms.

The probability distribution of the interevent time between two successive earthquakes has been subject of numerous studies due to its key role in seismic hazard assessment. In recent decades, many distributions have been considered and there has been a long debate about the possible universality of the shape of this distribution when the interevent times are suitably rescaled. In this work we aim to find out if there is a link between the different phases of a seismic cycle and the variations in the distribution that best fits the interevent times. To do this, we consider the seismic activity related to the Mw 6.1 L’Aquila earthquake that occurred on April 6, 2009 in central Italy by analyzing the sequence of events recorded from April 2005 to July 2009, and then the seismic activity linked to the sequence of the Amatrice-Norcia earthquakes of Mw 6 and 6.5 respectively and recorded in the period from January 2009 to June 2018. We take into account some of the most studied distributions in the literature: q-exponential, q-generalized gamma, gamma and exponential distributions and, according to the Bayesian paradigm, we compare the value of their posterior marginal likelihood in shifting time windows with a fixed number of data. The results suggest that the distribution providing the best performance changes over time and its variations may be associated with different phases of the seismic crisis.

6G is already being planned and will employ much higher frequencies, leading to a revolutionary era in communication between people as well as things. It is well known that weather, especially rain, can cause increased attenuation of signal transmission for higher frequencies. The standard methods for evaluating the effect of rain on symbol error rate are based on long-term averaging. These methods are an inaccurate, which results with an inefficient system design. This is critical regarding bandwidth scarcity and energy consumption and requires a more significant margin of effort to cope with the imprecision. Recently we have developed a new and more precise method for calculating communication system performance in case of rain, using the probability density function of rain rate. For high rain rate (above 10mm/hr), for a typical set of parameters, our method shows the symbol error rate in this range to be higher by orders of magnitude than that found by ITU standard methods. Our model also indicates that sensing and measuring the rain rate probability is important in order to provide the required bit error rate to the users. To the best knowledge of the authors, this novel analysis is unique. It can constitute a more effi-cient performance metric for the new era of 6G communication and prevent disruption due to incorrect system design. Keywords: atmospheric propagation, communication system performance, attenuation, com-munication

The development of forecasting models for the evaluation of potential slope instability after rainfall event represents an important issue for the scientific community. This topic has received considerable impetus due to climate change effect on the territory [1, 2] as several studies demonstrate that the increase in global warming can significantly influence the landslide activity and stability conditions of natural and artificial slopes [3]. A consolidated approach in evaluating rainfall induced landslide hazard is based on the integration of rainfall forecasts and physically based (PB) predictive models through deterministic laws. However, considering the complex nature of the processes and the high variability of the random quantities involved, probabilistic approaches are recommended in order to obtain reliable predictions. A crucial aspect of the stochastic approach is represented by the definition of appropriate probability density functions (pdfs) to model the uncertainty of the input variables as this may have an important effect on the evaluation of the probability of failure (PoF). The role of the pdf definition on reliability analysis is discussed through a comparison of PoF maps generated using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations performed over a study area located in the Umbria Region of central Italy.

In developing his cosmological model of 1917, de Sitter theoretically predicted the phenomenon of cosmological redshift (the de Sitter effect), which he did long before the discovery of this phenomenon in observations. The de Sitter effect is gravitational by its nature, as it is due to differences between the coordinate systems of the observer and the distant source. However, the relationship between the redshift and distance derived from the de Sitter metric is at odds with observations, since this relationship is nonlinear (quadratic) for small redshifts, while the observed relationship between the same quantities is strictly linear. This paper discusses the possibility that cosmological redshift is gravitational by its nature, as in de Sitter’s 1917 model. At the same time, here, as in de Sitter’s model, an elliptical space is used, the main characteristic of which is the identification of its antipodal points. But, unlike de Sitter’s model, here, in order to ensure a strict linear dependence of the redshift on distance, the origin of the reference system is transferred to the observer’s antipodal point. The Schwarzschild-de Sitter metric used in this model allows you to estimate the curvature of space from observational data. To do this, a theoretical Hubble diagram is built within the framework of the model with the Schwarzschild-de Sitter metric, which is compared with observations from the Pantheon+ catalogue of type Ia supernovae and the Amati catalogue of gamma-ray bursts in the redshift range of 0<z<8. As a results of the comparison, the lower estimate of the radius of curvature of space turned out to be quite large: 2.3·1015 Mpc. This means that the observational data indicate a negligible curvature of space.

Laser metal deposition with wire (LMD-w) is a developing additive manufacturing (AM) technology that has a high deposition material rate and efficiency, and is suitable for fabrication of large aerospace components. However, control of material properties, geometry, and residual stresses is needed before LMD-w technology can be widely adopted for the construction of critical structural components. In this study, we investigated the effect of interlayer cooling time, clamp constraints, and tool path strategy on part distortion and residual stresses in large-scale laser additive manufactured Ti-6Al-4V components using finite element method (FEM). The simulations were validated with the temperature and the distortion measurements obtained from a real LMD-w process. We found that a shorter interlayer cooling time, full clamping constraints on the build plates, and a bidirectional tool path with 180⁰ rotation minimized part distortion and residual stresses and resulted in symmetric stress distribution.

Bipolar disorder (BD) is a high suicide-risk mental disorder. The purpose of this study was to identify the relationship between temperament and character traits with suicide probability, suicide attempt and perceived stress level in patients with BD. A total of 39 euthymic patients with bipolar disorder who had a history of suicide attempt and 39 euthymic patients without a history of suicide attempt were included in this study. Sociodemographic and clinical data form, Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS), Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS), The Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-5-Clinician Version (SCID-5/CV), Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI), Perceived Stress Scale (PSS), Suicide Probability Scale were used for obtaining the data. HDRS, PSS and SPS scores of the group comprised of patients who attempted suicide were higher than the other group. There was no significant difference between the group of patients who had attempted suicide and the other group in terms of temperament characteristics. In the group of patients who had attempted suicide, self-directedness (SD) and cooperativeness (CO) scores were lower and self-transcendence (ST) score was higher than the other group. HA and ST were positively and SD negatively associated with SPS scores. In the regression analysis for suicide risk, the factors most associated with suicide risk were high HDRS and low CO score. Low SD in BD, high ST with CO may be associated with suicide attempt. Alongside low SD, high HA and ST may be associated with suicidal ideation. Treating residual depressive symptoms can reduce the risk of suicide.

As global warming intensifies, the development of offshore wind farms is swiftly progressing, especially deep-water floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) capable of energy capture in deep-sea regions, which have emerged as a focal point of both academic and industrial interest. Although numerous researchers have conducted comprehensive and multifaceted studies on various components of wind turbines, less attention has been paid to the operational stage response of FOWTs to wind, waves, and currents, and the reliability of structural components. This study primarily employs theoretical analysis to establish mathematical models under a series of reasonable assumptions, examining the possibility of collisions between FOWT transport fleets and other vessels in the passage area during the towing process. Using the model, this paper takes the Wanning Offshore Floating Wind Farm (FOWF) project, which is scheduled to be deployed in the South China Sea, as the research object and calculates the probability of collisions between FOWTs and other vessels in three time periods from the total assembly pier in Hainan Wanning to the predetermined position 22 km away. The findings of the analysis suggest that the mathematical model has the capability to efficiently determine the frequency of collisions between vessels within the domain and the transport team during the transportation process. This holds substantial relevance for future risk assessment and disaster prevention and mitigation measures in the context of FOWT transportation.

White noise is fundamentally linked to many processes, it has a flat power spectral density and a delta-correlated autocorrelation. Operators acting on white noise can result in coloured noise, whether they operate in the time domain, like fractional calculus, or in the frequency domain, like spectral processing. We investigate whether any of the white noise properties remain in the coloured noises produced by the action of an operator. For a coloured noise, which drives a physical system, we provide evidence to pinpoint the mother process from which it came. We demonstrate the existence of two indices, that is, kurtosis and codifference, whose values can categorise coloured noises according to their mother process. Four different mother processes are used in this study: Gaussian, Laplace, Cauchy, and Uniform white noise distributions. The mother process determines the kurtosis value of the coloured noises that are produced. It maintains its value for Gaussian, never converges for Cauchy, and takes values for Laplace and Uniform that are within a range of its white noise value. In addition, the codifference function maintains its value for zero lag-time essentially constant around the value of the corresponding white noise.

This work is the first in literature to tackle the difficult open problem of determining the upper bound and threshold theorem for the TDCDP (time-dependent controller parameter) of the (Fokker Planck Kolmogorov) probability density function. This revolutionary exposition will put control theory and other related inter-disciplinary fields to a higher level towards contemporary control theory. Notably, based on the influential role of control theory in both engineering and industry, this paper will be of great value to all engineering and industry professionals who seek to know more about advanced trends within control theory settings. On the other remit of the spectrum, Fokker Planck Kolmogorov(FPK) equations are of high importance to physicists as well as mathematicians, based on their multiple applicability to information theory, graph theory, data science, finance, economics, and beyond. So, this by default adds more taste and credibility to this study. This leads by nature to introducing a different flavor to this ground-breaking research by highlighting the impact of Fokker Planck Kolmogorov(FPK) to revolutionize crypocurrency,which have received its name because it uses encryption to verify transactions, a new debatable digital payment system that doesn't rely on banks to verify transactions. It’s a peer-to-peer system that can enable anyone anywhere to send and receive payments. The paper ends with closing remarks combined with some challenging open problems and the next phase of research.

With the global warming and the frequent occurrences of harsh environments, mooring line failures are frequent. Response analysis of the platform structure and its residual mooring system under multiple mooring line failures is needed. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the change law of platform motion response after mooring line failure to find out the reasons for the change. Studies for different failure combinations of mooring lines show that the variation of the steady-state equilibrium position of the platform is closely related to the stiffness, with a clear functional. The duration and amplitude of the transient response are mainly influenced by the Morison drag force. And it was found that the suspended mooring line reduced the motion responses. It is also found that the mooring line failure increased the effective tension and suspension length of the riser. Based on the improved Dezert-Smarandache theory (DSmT), it is calculated that mooring line failure has little effect on the failure probability in different zones of the riser.

Non-pneumatic tires have gained a lot of attention due to their advantages, including not having to worry about getting a flat tire. In this type of tire, metamaterial cells replace the pneumatic part of the tire. In general, metamaterials are formed by stacking cells together. These cells are obtained by various methods including topology optimization. Therefore, in this research, to achieve a metamaterial cell suitable for a non-pneumatic tire with the objective function of increasing compressive strength and bending fatigue life, optimization for three types of geometry including (1) square plane, (2) rectangular plane, and (3) entire circumference of tire and three types of material including polylactic acid (PLA), thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) and void have been done. Optimization has been implemented by using MATLAB code in 2D mode. The cubic cell is obtained from extruding the optimized response of the square plane. From the optimized response of the rectangular plane, the cylindrical cell and from extruding the optimized response of the entire circumference of tire to the tire cross-section size, the main geometry of the tire has been calculated. Finally, to check the quality of 3D printing in producing cells and how they are connected, the optimal cell fabricated by the fused deposition modeling (FDM) method has been observed using a field-emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM). The results show that in the optimization of the square plane, the sample with the minimum remaining weight constraint equal to 40% and in the optimization of the rectangular plane and the entire circumference of tire, the sample with the minimum remaining weight constraint equal to 60% was selected as the optimal sample. From checking the quality of 3D printing, it has been concluded that PLA and TPU materials are completely connected.

Modelling diameter distribution is an integral part of forest management. It requires the use of a suitable probability density function or cumulative distribution function with the appropriate fitting method. In this study, we compared the suitability of eight probability density functions fitted by derivative and optimization methods used for diameter distribution estimation of forest stands. The derivation and optimization were used on A Charlier, beta, generalized beta, gamma, Gumbel, Johnson’s SB, and Weibull (2 and 3-parameter). We used data from 167 permanent sample plots from Atlantic forest (Quercus robur) and 59 temporary sample plots from tropical forests (Tectona grandis). The quality of the fits was evaluated with different indices such as Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Cramer-von Mises, mean absolute error, bias and mean squared error. The results showed Johnson’s SB function was more suitable for describing the diameter distribution of the stands. Johnson’s SB, 3-parameter Weibull and generalized beta had consistent performance regardless of the fitting methods. The quality of fits produced by gamma, Gumbel and 2-parameter Weibull was poor.

For a long time, physicists always directly use mathematical tools to deal with physical problems, and few people pay attention to the difference between mathematical theory and physical theory. Just like the dilemma that physicists once faced when dealing with the problem of blackbody radiation function.By analyzing the difference between the theoretical basis of mathematics and the theoretical basis of physics, this paper draws the following conclusions: (1) The theoretical basis of mathematics and the theoretical basis of physics are different, so when we use mathematical tools for physics research, we need to be very careful. (2) Finiteness and discreteness should be the basis of the whole physical theory; This paper points out that it is not advisable to use infinite " " and infinitesimal "0" without restriction and demonstration in physics, as well as the continuity of functions, which will bring a lot of trouble to physical theory.At the same time, through the analysis of Banach-Tarski paradox and Bertrand paradox, this paper proposes that if we revise the basic assumptions of probability theory: assuming that "points" have quantized sizes, and "lines" also have quantized widths. After the correction, we can not only avoid the troubles caused by Bertrand paradox, but also make probability theory better for practical application.

In this study, we propose a radiomics-clinical probability weighted model for the prediction of prognosis for NSCLC. The model combines radiomics features extracted from RT planning images with clinical factors such as age, gender, histology, and tumor stage. CT images with radiotherapy structures of 422 NSCLC patients were retrieved from The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA). Radiomic features were extracted from gross tumor volume (GTV). Five machine learning algorithms, namely decision trees (DT), random forests (RF), extreme boost (EB), support vector machine (SVM) and generalized linear model (GLM), were optimized by a voted ensemble machine learning (VEML) model. A probabilistic weighted approach is used to incorporate the uncertainty associated with both radiomic and clinical features and to generate a probabilistic risk score for each patient. The performance of the model is evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC). Radiomic model, clinical factors model and combined radiomic-clinical probability weighted model demonstrated good performance in predicting NSCLC survival with AUC of 0.941, 0.856 and 0.949 respectively. The combined radiomics-clinical probability weighted enhanced model achieved significantly better performance than radiomic model in 1-year survival prediction (chi-square test, p<0.05). The proposed model has the potential to improve NSCLC prognosis and facilitate personalized treatment decisions.

Tidal stream energy is a renewable energy resource that might be developed to offset carbon emissions. A tidal energy demonstration (TED) area has been designated in Minas Passage, Bay of Fundy, for testing and installing marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbines. Regulations require quantification of the potential for MHK turbine installations to harm local populations of marine animals. Here we use acoustic telemetry to quantify probability that post smolt Inner Bay of Fundy salmon encounter a turbine installation at the TED area. Previous work has quantified detection efficiency of Innovasea HR acoustic tags as a function of current speed and range from a moored HR2 receiver and also demonstrated that drifters carrying HR tags will be effectively detected when the drifter track crosses the array of HR2 receivers in Minas Passage. Salmon smolts were tagged and released in Gaspereau and Stewiacke Rivers, Nova Scotia, in order that the HR2 receiver array could monitor seaward migration of the post smolts through Minas Passage and particularly through the TED area. Presently we demonstrate methods by which tag signals detected by the HR2 array can be used to estimate the expected number of times that a post smolt would encounter a single near-surface MHK turbine installation during its seaward migration.

In this paper, four probability functions are compared with the purpose of establishing a methodology to improve the accuracy of the estimated wind energy in a desert city in northwestern Mexico. For the statistical modeling, 3 time series of wind speed data were used, corresponding to the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, recorded with a sonic anemometer at a sampling frequency of 10 Hz. From these, the analysis is performed with different stationarity periods (5, 30, 60, and 600 seconds). The estimation of the parameters characterizing the probability density functions was performed using different methods; the statistical models were evaluated by the coefficient of determination and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, while their accuracy by the measured quadratic error, the mean square error, the mean absolute error, and the mean absolute percentage error. It was found that Weibull with the energy pattern factor method and Gamma using the method of moments were the probability density functions that best describe the statistical behavior of the wind speed and, therefore, better estimate the energy generated, so it is concluded that the proposed methodology will allow having greater confidence, both in the estimation of the wind speed and in the small wind energy available for its use.

Background: Qazvin province has suffered a lot of natural disasters (earthquakes) for a long time. so, the establishment of the first industrial city in Iran, has always been a source of concern. One of these problems is the possibility of chlorine gas leaking from the chlorination system of drinking water and treatment plant the existing ones are on the health of the inhabitants of this region.Material and method: This analytical study was carried out in Novorossiysk district of Alborz in December 2012. Initially, chlorine gas leakage scenarios from these facilities were simulated by ALOHA and WISER software, and then using the Emergency Level System, according to the CCPS Consultative Center's Chemical Process Safety Advice, the Emergency Response Program was presented. Results: ALOHA software, in comparison with WISER software, has more precision to identify and address the consequences of chlorine gas leakage hazards and according to the simulation of this software in the event of a leak from the well and water resources unit at 8240 m from the area and at night 7520 meters will be affected. Due to the speed of delivering results through the WISER software, this software can be used at times when the operating speed is considered (incident time).Conclusion: According to the CCPS model, the emergency conditions were classified at levels 3 and 4, therefore, the relevant crisis management agencies (Qazvin Crisis Management Committee, Alborz City Health Center, Red Crescent and Firefighting Authority) should provide training maneuvers At Alborz city level, and informing people of cities and industrial companies, many efforts have been made to reduce human and environmental damage in case of possible leakage.

The present work deals with the development of finite element methodology for obtaining the stress distributions in thick cylindrical HK40 stainless steel pipe that carry high temperature fluids. The material properties and loading are assumed to be random variables. Thermal stresses that are generated along radial, axial and tangential directions are computed generally using analytical expressions which are very complex. To circumvent such an issue, the probability theory and mathematical statistics have been applied to many engineering problems which allows to determine the safety both quantitatively and objectively based on the concepts of reliability. Monte Carlo simulation methodology is used to study the probabilistic characteristics of thermal stresses which is used for estimating the probabilistic distributions of stresses against the variations arising due to material properties and load. A 2-D Probabilistic finite element code is developed in MATLAB and the deterministic solution is compared with ABAQUS solutions. The values of stresses that are obtained from the variation of elastic modulus are found to be low as compared to the case where the load alone is varying. The probability of failure of the pipe structure is predicted against the variations in internal pressure and thermal gradient. These finite element framework developments are useful for the life estimation of piping structures in high temperature applications and subsequently quantifying the uncertainties in loading and material properties.

This paper presents a new approach of eddy current methods for determining the size of the co-axial hole in the metallic circular disk. In recent decades, for the air-cored sensor probe, the impedance change due to the presence of an infinite metal plate can be calculated by the Dodd-Deeds model. However, in practical measurements, the sample cannot match with the condition required - ‘infinite’, thus the Dodd-Deeds model could not be applied to the disk with finite size and certainly not a co-axial hole in the center. In this paper, a dual-constraint analytical method is proposed. That is, the upper and lower limits of the integration are substituted with specific values instead of the original 0 and . Besides, it is found that, once the outer radius of the disk is fixed (i.e. the lower limit of integration is fixed), the upper limit reduces linearly as the size of the coaxial hole increases. Both the FEM simulation and experiments have been carried out to validate this method. The radius of the hole can be estimated based on the dual-constraint integration feature.

The hard open problem of finding the lower bound for the Fokker Planck Kolmogorov’s time-dependent controller parameter probability density function is addressed for the first time in literature in this work. This revolutionary exposition will put control theory and other related inter-disciplinary fields to a higher level towards contemporary control theory. Notably, based on the influential role of control theory in both engineering and industry, this paper will be of great value to all engineering and industry professionals who seek to know more about advanced trends within control theory settings. On the other remit of the spectrum, Fokker Planck Kolmogorov(FPK) equations are of high importance to physicists as well as mathematicians, based on their multiple applicability to multi-interdisciplinary fields of human knowledge, and beyond. So, this by default adds more taste and credibility to this study. Concluding thoughts are included at the end of the work along with a difficult outstanding problem and the direction of future work.

Objective: To assess the functionality of the affected upper limb in children diagnosed with hemiplegia aged between 4 and 8 years after applying low-intensity modified constraint-induced movement therapy(mCIMT). Methods: Prospective case series study. A mCIMT protocol was applied for five weeks, with two hours of containment per day. The study variables were: quality of movement of the upper limb, spontaneous use, participation of the affected upper limb in activities of daily living, dynamic joint position, grasp-release action, grasp strength, supination and extension elbow movements. Four measurements were performed, using the QUEST scale, the SHUEE Evaluation, a hand dynamometer and a goniometer. Results: The sample was composed of 8 children with moderate manual ability. Statistically significant differences were detected in all the studied variables (p&lt;0.05). The greatest increase occurred in spontaneous use from assessment 1-4 (p = 0.01), reaching 88.87% active participation in bimanual tasks. The quality of movement of the upper limb obtained a significant value due to the increase in dissociated movements and grasp (p = 0.01). Conclusion: A low dose (50 hours) of mCIMT increased the functionality of children diagnosed with congenital hemiplegia between 4 and 8 years of age with moderate manual ability.

A difficult open problem that has never been fully resolved in the literature to date is the behaviour of the (TDCDP) third approximation. As a giant step towards modern control theory, this cutting-edge paper will advance control theory and other relevant inter-disciplinary subjects. Because control theory is important in industry and engineering, this study will be especially beneficial to anyone working in these disciplines who wish to understand more about recent advances in control theory settings. In contrast, the wealth of applications of Fokker Planck Kolmogorov (FPK) equations numerous disciplines As a result, the study instantly gains more taste and credibility. At the end of the paper, there are several challenging open problems, some concluding remarks, and recommendations for further investigation.