This article analyzes the determinants of the "Broadband Price Index" in Europe. The data used refer to 28 European countries between 2016 and 2021. The database used is the Digital, Economy and Society Index-DESI of the European Commission. The data were analyzed using the following econometric techniques, namely Panel Data with Random Effects, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Pooled OLS, WLS and Dynamic Panel. The value of the "Broadband Price Index" is positively associated with the DESI Index, and "Connectivity" while it is negatively associated with "Fixed Broadband Take Up", "Fixed Broadband Coverage", "Mobile Broadband", "e-Government", "Advanced Skills and Development", "Integration of Digital Technology", "At Least Basic Digital Skills ", "Above Basic Digital Skills "," At Least Basic Software Skills ". A cluster analysis was carried out below using the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Silhouette coefficient. The analysis revealed the existence of three clusters. Finally, an analysis of the machine learning algorithms was carried out to predict the future value of the "Broadband Price Index". The result shows that the most useful algorithm for prediction is the Artificial Neural Network-ANN with an estimated value equal to an amount of 9.21%.

The current paper provides a detailed review of the historical outbreaks of each of the four plague locust species found in South Africa, namely the brown locust, the African migratory locust, the red locust and the southern African desert locust. The history and dynamics of the plague infestations and the major local outbreaks are summarized. The typical patterns of the outbreaks of the different species are described and the threat of these locusts to agriculture in South Africa is defined. The brown locust produces regular outbreaks in the semi-arid Karoo, with large-scale eruptions of plague proportions occurring once or twice per decade. Patterns of outbreaks often repeat themselves, but the sheer size of the plague outbreaks are almost impossible to stop and the brown locust has the potential to threaten food security throughout southern Africa. The African migratory locust produces outbreaks in some of the main maize and wheat cropping areas where it is difficult to control. This locust has taken advantage of the man-made crop environment to produce an extra generation per year that was not previously possible in the original grasslands. The coastal area of KwaZulu Natal in South Africa was a prime reception and breeding area for plague invasions of the red locust in the past and the country therefore relies on the successful control of outbreaks in east and central Africa into prevent the recurrence of the plague invasions. The southern African desert locust occurs in the Kalahari Desert area and outbreaks requiring chemical control are rare.

One of the factors in the mobility of a nation's economy is the stock exchange which plays a decisive role in sustainable economic development. Accordingly, and for the special place of the stock exchange in the economy, we decided to investigate the relationship between the interest and exchange rates and the Tehran stock exchange dividend and price index (TEDPIX). Using the autoregressive distributed lag method, the present study is conducted utilizing the annual data over the period of 1991 to 2020. The results indicate that the exchange rate has a positive long-run relationship with the TEDPIX, but no statistically significant relationship was found between the TEDPIX and the interest rate. Furthermore, the results of the estimation of the error correction model show that 30.786% of the disequilibrium in each period is adjusted to the long-run equilibrium.

Day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers, and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participate in predicting the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, Fixed Weight Method (FWM) and Varying Weight Method (VWM), for selecting each hour's expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features derived from information such as past electricity price data, weather data, and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than both the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF) method and our own previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) alone do on the datasets for New York, Australian, and Spanish electricity markets.

Considering that cryptocurrencies are now present in practically every financial transaction because they are widely accepted as an alternate means of making payments and exchanging currencies, academics and economists have more opportunities to study cryptocurrency prices. Over the years, investors, traders and investment banks have found it difficult to predict the closing daily price of Ethereum due to its rapid price fluctuation. The daily closing price of cryptocurrency is essential to consider when trading or investing in Ethereum. This report focuses on carrying out a comparative study of the predictive capabilities of deep machine learning algorithms with a stacking ensemble modelling framework using daily historical observations of the price of Ethereum obtained from Coindesk, tweets extracted from Twitter ranging from the 1st of August 2022 to the 8th of August 2022 and other five covariates (closing price lag1, closing price lag2, noltrend, daytype and month) engineered from the closing price of Ethereum. Seven models are used to compute the forecasts for the daily closing price of Ethereum; these are the recurrent neural network, ensemble stacked recurrent neural network, gradient boosting machine, generalized linear model, distributed random forest, deep neural networks and stacked ensemble for gradient boosting machine, generalized linear model, distributed random forest and deep neural networks. The main evaluation metric used is the mean absolute error. According to MAE, RNN forecasts outperform the other model’s forecasts in this study, producing an MAE of 0.0309.

Chinese investors are easily affected by hot topics on the media and Internet and likely take irrational behavior. They tend to consume rationally and invest emotionally. This research aims to analyze the Baidu index’s effect on share price of solar power industry in China. Three main models are established to identify the correlation between Baidu index and stock price of solar industry. The media index and searching index of Baidu are chosen as an independent variable to measure the influence from media and Internet, and stock price as the dependent variable. To improve and complete the analysis, Hexun index is taken into consideration as mediator variable. This study applied Multiple Linear Regression Model and VAR (Vector auto-regression) Model. The research mainly uses the tools of SPSS, Eviews and Excel to conduct data analysis. The test is based on the theories of Granger Causality, unit root test, F-test, and t-test. The research proves the relationship between the close price of stock and Baidu index, and it also created a model for further forecasting.

This paper describes a system that is used to gather data from Smart Home sensors measuring energy consumption, analyze and predict future consumption by using machine learning algorithm for prediction. It focuses on the architecture of the system as well as the need for such system to exist in practice – why the consumption should be measured at all and how that measurement can be put to good use for achieving energy efficiency.

Daily maximum surface air temperature (Tamax) is a crucial factor for understanding complex land surface processes under rapid climate change. Remote detection of Tamax has widely relied on the empirical relationship between air temperature and land surface temperature (LST), a product derived from remote sensing. However, little is known about how such a relationship is affected by the high heterogeneity in landscapes and dynamics in seasonality. This study aims to advance our understanding of the roles of land cover and seasonal variation in the estimation of Tamax using the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) LST product. We developed statistical models to link Tamax and LST in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China for five major land-cover types (i.e., forest, shrub, water, impervious surface, cropland, and grassland) and two seasons (i.e., growing season and non-growing season). Results show that the performance of modeling the Tamax-LST relationship was highly dependent on land cover and seasonal variation. Estimating Tamax over grasslands and water bodies achieved superior performance; while uncertainties were high over forested lands that contained extensive heterogeneity in species types, plant structure, and topography. We further found that all the land-cover specific models developed for the plant non-growing season outperformed the corresponding models developed for the growing season. Discrepancies in model performance mainly occurred in the vegetated areas (forest, cropland, and shrub), suggesting an important role of plant phenology in defining the statistical relationship between Tamax and LST. For impervious surfaces, the challenge of capturing the high spatial heterogeneity in urban settings using the low-resolution MODIS data made Tamax estimation a difficult task, which was especially true in the growing season.

The main objective of this study was to compare the removal efficiency of nutrients using Lactuca sativa, Medicago sativa and Phragmites australis in subsurface flow constructed wetlands with horizontal flow. In order to test water quality, fabricated reactors designed and the plants cultivated in the soil while their root were inside the wastewater. A long time study carried out from spring till end of autumn (9 months) in order to evaluate the difference in removal rate based on the seasonal changes. The highest removal rate was during summer which followed by spring and autumn. Thus, the effect of plants on the removal efficiency of organic matter (COD, BOD), TSS and nutrient (P and TN) appeared to be dependent on the seasonal growth. Phragmites australis the most sensitive species in order the removal of nutrient from wastewater.

Background: The modified Duke index derived from coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) was designed to predict cardiovascular outcomes based on the severity of coronary ste-nosis. However, it does not take into consideration the presence or severity of peri-coronary in-flammation. The peri-coronary fat attenuation index (FAI) is a novel imaging marker determined by CCTA which reflects the degree of inflammation in the coronary tree in patients with coronary artery disease. Purpose: To assess the association between the modified Duke index assessed by CCTA, cardiovascular risk factors and peri-coronary inflammation in the coronary arteries of pa-tients with coronary artery disease. Methods: One hundred seventy-two patients who underwent CCTA for typical angina were assigned into two groups based on the modified Duke index: group 1 – patients with low index ≤ 3 (n=107) and group 2 – patients with high index > 3 (n=65). Demo-graphic, clinical and CCTA data were collected for all patients, and FAI analysis of coronary in-flammation was performed. Results: Patients with increased values of the modified Duke index were significantly older compared to those with a low index (61.83 ± 9.89 vs. 64.78 ± 8.9; p = 0.002). No differences were found between the two groups in terms of gender distribution, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia or smoking history (all p > 0.5). The FAI score was significantly higher in patients from group 2, who presented a significantly higher score of inflammation compared to the patients in group 1, especially at the level of the right coronary artery (FAI score 20.85 ± 15.80 vs. 14.61 ± 16.66; p = 0.01 for the right coronary artery, 13.85 ± 8.04 vs. 10.91 ± 6.5; p = 0.01 for the circumflex artery, and 13.26 ±10.18 vs. 11.37 ± 8.84; p = 0.2 for the left anterior descending artery). CaRi-Heart® analysis identified a significantly higher risk of future events among patients with a high modified Duke index (34.84 % ± 25.86 % versus 16.87 % ± 15.80 %; p

Abstract: The VSI represents a significant advancement in the assessment of gastrointestinal-specific anxiety among patients with Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS) and other Chronic Inflammatory Bowel Diseases (IBD). However, an Italian version of the instrument is not yet available for the reference population. This study utilized a national sample of 500 individuals, including healthy controls and patients with Ulcerative Colitis and Crohn's Disease, to test the validity and reliability of the Italian VSI. Using back-translation methodology to ensure translation fidelity, the research applied a questionnaire and the VSI through an online format to 500 participants. Data analysis revealed that the Italian VSI had excellent psychometric properties, demonstrating high internal consistency (Cronbach’s α = 0.95) and construct validity. The scale proved sensitive in detecting significant differences in visceral sensitivity among groups, highlighting its utility as a clinical and research assessment tool. Specifically, the Italian VSI exhibited a unidimensional factorial structure and maintained a strong correlation with other measures of anxiety and the severity of gastrointestinal symptoms, confirming its role in enhancing the understanding and management of IBS and IBD in Italy.

When sellers set the price for ex-ante unobservable and ex-post unenforceable quality, price signals credence quality. Hedge funds resemble incomplete long-term contracts for credence goods under buyer-determined auctions. I show that hedge funds' ability to solicit investments at higher management fees signals their capacity to generate higher net returns. This result is more pronounced during bust cycles and closer to financial hubs, i.e., when signaling quality is more valuable. The findings are relevant to understanding price and effort in the provision of credence goods like medical procedures and legal advice.

Annually, the oak forests of the Zagros Mountain chains, in western Iran and northeastern Iraq, face recurring challenges posed by forest fires, particularly in the Kurdo-Zagrosian forests situated in western Iran and northeastern Iraq. Assessing fire susceptibility relies significantly on vegetation condition. Integrating in situ data, Remote Sensing (RS) data, alongside the integration of Geographical Information Systems (GIS), presents a cost-effective and precise approach to capturing environmental conditions before, during, and after fire events, minimizing the need for extensive fieldwork. This study refines and applies the Zagros Grass Index (ZGI), a local vegetation index tailored to discern between grass-covered surfaces from tree canopies in Zagros forests, identifying the grass masses as the most flammable fuel type. Utilizing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) product as input, from 2013 to 2022, the ZGI aims to mitigate the influence of tree canopies, isolating NDVI values solely attributable to grass cover. By incorporating phenological characteristics of forest trees and grass species, the ZGI outperforms NDVI in mapping grass-covered areas that are crucial for fire susceptibility assessment in the study region. Results demonstrate a strong overlap between ZGI-based maps and recorded fire occurrences, validating the efficacy of the index in fire susceptibility estimation.

Managing a portfolio whose value closely tracks an index by trading only in a subset of the index constituents involves an NP-hard optimisation problem. In the prior literature, it has been suggested to solve this problem using sequential Monte Carlo (SMC, a.k.a. particle filter) methods. However, this literature does not take transaction costs into account, although transaction costs are the primary motivation for attempting to replicate the index by trading in a subset, rather than the full set of index constituents. This paper extends the SMC approach to index tracking to allow for proportional transaction costs and implements this extended method on empirical data for a variety stock indices. In addition to providing a more practically useful tracking strategy by allowing for transaction costs, we find that including a penalty for transaction costs in the optimisation objective can actually lead to better tracking performance.

The paper proposes a game theory model of price oligopoly with a heterogeneous product, where total demand depends linearly on the minimum market price. This model develops the Bertrand oligopoly for the case of imperfect price elasticity of demand. The most interesting result is an asymmetric Nash equilibrium with different prices and sales in the situation of symmetric oligopolists. The asymmetry is explained by the fact that a decrease in the minimum market price leads not only to a reallocation of consumers among firms, but also to an increase in total demand. Modifications of a two-stage game with a leader and followers and the price discrimination model are also considered. Microeconomic substantiation of the model is given on the basis of the spatial differentiation approach.

In order to investigate the size distributions and seasonal variations of carbonaceous aerosols (OC and EC), the carbonaceous species were collected and then analyzed by using a 9-stage Anderson-type aerosol sampler and DRI Model 2001A Thermal/Optical Carbon Analyzer on the typical industrial city Nanjing in Yangtze River Delta, China in the summer, autumn and winter of 2013 and spring of 2014. OC, EC, SOC and POC exhibited obvious seasonal variations, with the highest level in winter (39.1±14.0, 5.7±2.1, 23.6±11.7 and 14.1±5.7 μg•m^-3) and the lowest level in summer (20.6±6.7, 3.3±2.0, 12.2±3.8 and 8.4±4.1 μg•m^-3), and were mainly centralized in PM_1.1 in four seasons. The concentrations of OC in PM_1.1 varied in the order of winter > autumn > spring > summer, while EC ranked in the order of autumn > winter > summer > spring. In the PM_1.1-2.1 and PM_2.1-10, the concentrations of OC and EC decreased in the sequence of winter > spring > autumn > summer. The size spectra of OC, EC and SOC had bimodal distributions in four seasons, except for EC with four peaks in summer. The size spectra of POC varied greatly with seasons, exhibiting bimodal distribution in winter, trimodal distribution in spring and summer, and four peaks in autumn. The OC/EC ratios were 7.0, 6.3, 7.6 and 6.9 in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively, which demonstrated the abundance of secondary organic aerosols in Nanjing. The sources of carbonaceous aerosol varied significantly with seasons, and were dominated by vehicle exhaust, coal and biomass burning in PM_2.1, and dominant by dust, coal and biomass burning in PM_2.1-10.

Climate change is challenging the agricultural sector worldwide. The pressure exerted by the altered thermal conditions drives the zonal shift for various cultivations. This study presents the multiyear analysis of the Growing Degree Days (GDD) index over the Northern Mediterranean Basin (NMB), focused on the high-value vine cultivation derived from the E-OBS dataset. To handle this extensive environmental dataset, R-language scripts and packages were applied, along with the capabilities of the GIS software. The investigated time period spans from 1969 to 2018, and the performed analysis indicates a broad shift/expansion in areas of GDD exceeding 2000 heat units. The extracted results specify the viticultural areas where the GDD index surpasses the suitable values for vine cultivation, owing to the increase of the thermal stress risk. In addition to mapping areas with GDD ≥ 2000, spatial calculations of the surface of areas meeting this criterion per country in the study area were made. In the northern parts of the NMB, the rise of the GDD index values indicates the establishment of vine plantations in the future.

Floods are a common natural disaster whose severity in terms of duration, water resource volume, peak and accumulated rainfall-based damage are likely to differ significantly for different geographical regions. In this paper, we first propose a novel hourly flood index (SWRI24−hr−S), derived from normalising the existing 24-hourly water resources index (WRI24−hr−S) in literature, to monitor flash flood risks on an hourly scale. The proposed SWRI24−hr−S is adopted to identify a flood situation and derive its characteristics, such as the duration (D), volume (V) and peak (Q). The comprehensive result analysis establishes the practical utility of SWRI24−hr−S in identifying flood situations at seven study sites in Fiji between 2014 and 2018 and deriving their characteristics (i.e., D, V, and Q). Secondly, this study develops a vine copula-probabilistic risk analysis system that models the joint distribution of flood characteristics (i.e., D, V, and Q) to extract their joint exceedance probability for the seven study sites in Fiji, enabling probabilistic flood risk assessment. The vine copula approach, particularly suited to Fiji’s study sites, introduces a novel probabilistic framework for flood risk assessment. The results show moderate differences in the spatial patterns of joint exceedance probability of flood characteristics in different combination scenarios generated by the proposed vine copula approach. In the worst-case scenario, the probability of any flood event occurring where the flood volume, peak and duration are likely to exceed the 95th-quantile value (representing an extreme flood event) is found to be less than 5% for all study sites. The proposed hourly flood index and the vine copula approach can be feasible and cost-effective tools for flood risk monitoring and assessment. The methodologies proposed in this study can be applied to other data-scarce regions where only rainfall data is available, offering crucial information for flood risk monitoring, assessment, and the development of effective mitigation strategies.

Recent analyses of cosmic microwave background surveys have revealed hints that there may be a non-trivial running of the running of the spectral index. If future experiments were to confirm these hints, it would prove a powerful discriminator of inflationary models, ruling out simple single field models. We discuss how isocurvature perturbations in multi-field models can be invoked to generate large runnings in a non-standard hierarchy, and find that a minimal model capable of practically realising this would be a two-field model with a non-canonical kinetic structure. We also consider alternative scenarios such as variable speed of light models and canonical quantum gravity effects and their implications for runnings of the spectral index.

In the paper the verification of forecasts of precipitation conditions measured by the standardized precipitation index SPI is presented. For the verification of categorical forecasts a contingency table was used. Standard verification measures were used for the SPI value forecast. The 30 day SPI moved every 10 days by 10 days was calculated in 2013-2015 from April to September on the basis of precipitation data from 35 meteorological stations in Poland. Predictions of the 30 day SPI were created in which precipitation was forecasted in the next 10 days (the SPI 10-day forecast) and 20 days (the SPI 20-day forecast). Both for the 10 and 20 days, the forecasts were skewed towards drier categories at the expense of wet categories. There was a good agreement between observed and 10-day forecast categories of precipitation. Less agreement is obtained for 20-day forecasts – these forecasts evidently “over-dry” the assessment of precipitation anomalies. The 10-day SPI value forecast accuracy is acceptable, whereas for the 20-day forecast is unsatisfactory. Both for the SPI categorical and the SPI value forecast, the 10-day SPI forecast is reliable and the 20-day forecast should be accepted with reservation and used with caution.

Aim: To investigate inflammation indices and erythropoietin (EPO) levels for their potential role in distinguishing polycythemia vera (PV) from secondary polycythemia (SP), and to compare different parameter combinations in terms of diagnostic accuracy. Methods: This retrospective cohort was created from patients assessed for polycythemia from January 2020 to December 2023. PV diagnosis was made according to the 2016 WHO criteria (n=145). Those who did not fulfill the criteria were defined as having SP (n=84). Results: NLR, PLR and SII were significantly higher in the PV group (p

This research aimed to investigate the relationship between climate policy uncertainty (CPU), clean energy (ENERGY), carbon emission allowance prices (CARBON), and Bitcoin returns (BTC) for the period from August 2012 to August 2022. The empirical analysis strategies utilized in this study included the Fourier Bootstrap ARDL long-term coefficient estimator, Fourier Granger Causality, and Fourier Toda Yamamoto Causality methods. Following the confirmation of cointegration among the variables, we observed a positive relationship between BTC and CARBON, a positive relationship between BTC and CPU, and a negative relationship between BTC and ENERGY. In terms of causal associations, we identified one-way causality running from CARBON to BTC, BTC to CPU, and BTC to the ENERGY variable. The study underscores the potential benefits and revenue opportunities for investors seeking diversified investment strategies in light of climate change concerns. Furthermore, it suggests actionable strategies for policymakers, such as implementing carbon taxes and educational campaigns, to foster a transition towards clean energy sources within the cryptocurrency mining sector and thereby mitigate environmental impacts.

Grasslands are at risk of degradation due to unsustainable management practices and climate change. Sustainable grassland soil management can promote ecosystem service delivery and improve the resilience of the entire grassland ecosystem to anthropogenic change. Here, we re-view the principal soil quality indicators (SQIs) and how they have been used to evaluate the sustainability of different grassland management practices globally. We then discuss sustainable grazing management practices, before reviewing some novel grassland species which may im-prove grassland resilience with relevance for grassland management in Europe and the UK. We also give an overview of current sustainable grassland management methods and their assessment at field scale. From this, we suggest that sustainable Grazing Management Plans (GMPs), together with the testing of drought-resistant grass species and appropriate SQIs monitoring, is key to increasing resilience of grassland ecosystems to anthropogenic change.

Floods are among the most serious natural disasters worldwide; they cause enormous crop losses every year and threaten world food security. There are many studies focused on flood impact assessments for administrative districts but fewer on postdisaster impact assessments for specific crops. Therefore, this study used remote sensing data, including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), elevation data, slope data, and rainfall data, combined with crop growing season data to construct a crop flood damage assessment index (CFAI). First, an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to assign weights to the impact factors; then, the weighted composite score method was used to calculate the CFAI; and finally, the impact was classified as slight, moderate, or severe based on the magnitude of the CFAI . This method was used for the Missouri River floods of 2019 in the U.S. Due to the lack of measured data, the disaster vegetation damage index (DVDI) was used to validate the results. The combined approach achieved a high degree of consistency in spatial distribution. The CFAI can respond well to the degree of crop impact after flooding, providing new ideas and reference standards for agriculture-related departments.

Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) is an important deciduous species in western U.S. forests. Existing maps of aspen distribution are based on Landsat imagery and often miss small stands (<0.09 ha or 30 m²), which rapidly regrow when managed or following disturbance. In this study, we present methods for deriving a new regional map of aspen forests using one year of Sentinel-1 (S1) and Sentinel-2 (S2) imagery in Google Earth Engine. We assessed the annual phenology of aspen in the Southern Rockies and leveraged the frequent temporal resolution of S1 and S2 to create ecologically relevant seasonal composites. Additionally, we derived spectral indices and radar textural features targeting the canopy structure, moisture, and chlorophyll content. Using spatial block cross-validation and Random Forests, we assessed the accuracy of different scenarios and selected the best performing set of features for classification. Comparisons were then made with existing landcover products across the study region. The resulting map improves on existing landcover products in both accuracy (average F1-score = 93.1%) and detection of smaller forest patches. These methods enable accurate mapping at spatial and temporal scales relevant to forest management for one of the most widely distributed tree species in North America.

The majority of adults in the world (around 83%) carry antibodies reactive with HCMV and are thought to retain inactive or latent infections lifelong. The virus is transmitted via saliva so infection events are likely to be common. Indeed it is hard to imagine a life without exposure to HCMV. From 45 seronegative individuals (13 renal transplant recipients, 32 healthy adults), we present seven cases who had detectable HCMV DNA in their blood and/or saliva, or a CMV-encoded homologue of IL-10 (vIL-10) in their plasma. One case displayed NK cells characteristic of CMV infection, and HCMV DNA became undetectable. In other cases, the infection may persist with seroconversion blocked by vIL-10. Future research should seek mechanisms that can prevent an individual from seroconverting despite a persistent HCMV infection, as HCMV vaccines may not work well in such people.

Baggage overweight is a significant phenomenon in the air travel in- dustry which is both regulated by the governments and highly profitable for the airlines. The recent years increase in airlines' profits is attributed to so-called ancillary payments – all consumer costs excluding the actual transportation fare. Baggage overweight fees, being a part of such pay- ments, have high profit-generation potential. Is the pricing for baggage overweight positioned correctly? The rationality of policies currently used by airlines is questionable, as they lack a customer-oriented marketing ap- proach. The general purpose of this research is to explore the possibilities of rational baggage overweight pricing for airlines by developing a multi- level price optimization model aimed to maximize company revenue. The modeling is based on determining consumer Willingness-To- Pay values for baggage overweight, and providing an optimal ticket price for them to maximize company expected revenue. The total profit value is forecasted too, based on the company market share and revenue level.

The NP method was used to elucidate the contributions of vehicles and coal combustion to seasonal and long-term atmospheric PM-bound Pyr and 1-NP concentrations in Kanazawa, Kitakyushu, Shenyang, and Shanghai in the Western Pacific region from 1997 to 2021. Among the four cities, Kanazawa demonstrated the lowest Pyr concentration. The contribution of vehicles to Pyr before and after 2010 were 35% and 5%, respectively. The 1-NP concentration reduced by a factor of more than 1/10. These changes can be attributed to the emission control from vehicles. Kitakyushu revealed the second lowest Pyr and the lowest 1-NP concentrations. Coal combustion was found to be the main contributor to Pyr, while its contribution to 1-NP increased from 9% to 19%. The large contribution of coal combustion is attributed to iron manufactures. Shenyang demonstrated the highest atmospheric Pyr concentration with its largest seasonal change. Vehicles are the largest contributors to 1-NP. However, coal combustion, including winter coal heating, contributed 97% or more to Pyr and more than 14% to 1-NP. Shanghai revealed the second highest Pyr and 1-NP concentrations, but the former was substantially lower than in Shenyang. Coal combustion was the major contributor, but the contribution of vehicles to Pyr was larger before 2010 similar to Kanazawa.

The fetal splenic artery pulsatility index (PI) is a parameter that reflects fetal well-being and has been used as a predictor of adverse pregnancy outcomes. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive value of splenic artery PI in GDM class A1 cases for NICU admission. In this prospective case controlled study, only sixty single pregnancy cases diagnosed with gestational diabetes mellitus class A1 were evaluated. Fetal splenic artery Doppler parameters Peak systolic velocity (PSV), Pulsatility index (PI), Resistivity index (RI) and End diastolic velocity (EDV) were measured in all cases. The rate of re-quirement of need of neanoatal intensive care unit was noted. In cases with need fetal intensive care, fetal splenic PI index was found to be statistically significantly lower than in healthy cases without it (0.94 ± 0.29 vs. 1.70 ± 0.53, respectively, p

Surface water distribution extracted from remote sensing data has been used in water resource assessment, coastal management, and environmental change studies. Traditional manual methods for extracting water bodies cannot satisfy the requirements for mass processing of remote sensing data; therefore, accurate automated extraction of such water bodies has remained a challenge. The histogram bimodal method (HBM) is a frequently used objective tool for threshold selection in image segmentation. The threshold is determined by seeking twin peaks, and the valley values between them; however, automatically calculating the threshold is difficult because complex surfaces and image noise which lead to not perfect twin peaks (single or multiple peaks). We developed an operational automated water extraction method, the modified histogram bimodal method (MHBM). The MHBM defines the threshold range of water extraction through mass static data; therefore, it does not require the identification of twin histogram peaks. It then seeks the minimum values in the threshold range to achieve automated threshold. We calibrated the MHBM for many lakes in China using Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) images, for which the relative error (RE) and squared correlation coefficient (R2) for threshold accuracy were found to be 2.1% and 0.96, respectively. The RE and root-mean-square error (RMSE) for the area accuracy of MHBM were 0.59% and 7.4 km2. The results show that the MHBM could easily be applied to mass time-series remote sensing data to calculate water thresholds within water index images and successfully extract the spatial distribution of large water bodies automatically.

Plant leaf area index (LAI) is a key characteristic affecting field canopy microclimate. In addition to traditional professional measuring instruments, smartphone camera sensors have been used to measure plant LAI. However, when smartphone methods were used to measure conifer forest LAI, very different performances were obtained depending on whether the smartphone was held at the zenith angle or at a 57.5° angle. To validate further the potential of smartphone sensors for measuring conifer LAI and to find the limits of this method, this paper reports the results of a comparison of two smartphone methods with an LAI-2000 instrument. It is shown that both methods can be used to reveal the conifer leaf-growing trajectory. However, the method with the phone oriented vertically upwards always produced better consistency in magnitude with LAI-2000. The bias of the LAI between the smartphone method and the LAI-2000 instrument was explained with regard to four aspects that can affect LAI: gap fraction, leaf projection ratio, sensor field of view (FOV), and viewing zenith angle (VZA). It was concluded that large FOV and large VZA cause the 57.5° method to overestimate the gap fraction and hence underestimate conifer LAI, especially when tree height is greater than 2.0 m. For the vertically upward method, the bias caused by the overestimated gap fraction is compensated for by an underestimated leaf projection ratio.

We report on ground-based measurements of the atmospheric electric field (Ez= -Potential Gradient (PG)) and current density (Jz) that were conducted at two locations in Israel. One is the Emilio Segre cosmic ray station located on Mt. Hermon (34.45 N, 2020 m AMSL) located in northern Israel near the Syrian-Lebanon border and at the other at the Wise astronomical observatory in the Negev desert highland plateau of southern Israel (31.18 N, 870 m AMSL). We searched for possible effects of strong, short-term solar events on the potential gradient and the vertical current density, as disruption to the Global Electric Circuit are often observed following strong solar events. The first case study (St. Patrick Day, 17 March 2015) was classified as the strongest event of 2015. The second case study (8 Sep 2017) was categorized as the strongest event of 2017 and one of the twenty strongest events on record to date. The results show that the electrical parameters measured at ground level at both stations were not affected during the two massive proton events and the ensuing geomagnetic storms. The magnetospheric shielding in lower latitudes is strong enough to shield against flux of energetic particles from solar events, obscuring any impact that may be noticeable above the local daily variations induced by local meteorological conditions (aerosol concentrations, clouds, high humidity, and wind speed) which were investigated as well.

Properties of time domain parameters of the vibration signal have been extensively studied for the fault diagnosis of rolling element bearings (REB). Parameters like kurtosis and Envelope Harmonic-to-Noise Ratio are most widely applied in this field and some important progress has been made. However, since only one-sided information is contained in these parameters respectively, problems still exist in practice when the signals collected are of complicated structure and/or contaminated by strong background noises. A new parameter, named Shock pulse index (SPI), is proposed in this paper. It integrates the mutual advantage of both parameters above and can help effectively identify fault related impulse components under the interference of strong background noises, unrelated harmonic components and random impulses. The SPI optimizes the parameters of Maximum Correlated Kurtosis Deconvolution (MCKD), which is used to filter the signals under consideration. Finally, the interested transient information contained in the filtered signal can be highlighted through demodulation with Teager Energy Operator (TEO). Fault related impulse components can therefore be extracted accurately. Simulations and experiment analyses verify the effectiveness and correctness of the SPI.

Load transfer through orthopaedic joint implants is poorly understood. The longer-term outcomes of these implants are just starting to be studied, making it imperative to monitor contact loads across the entire joint implant interface to elucidate the force transmission and distribution mechanisms exhibited by these implants in service. This study proposes and demonstrates the design, implementation, and characterization of a 3D-printed smart polymer sensor array using conductive polyaniline (PANI) structures embedded within a polymeric parent phase. The piezoresistive characteristics of PANI were studied to characterize the sensing behaviours inherent to these embedded pressure sensor arrays. PANI's stable response to a continuous load, its stability throughout loading and unloading cycles, and its repeatable and linear response to incremental loading cycles together with the accuracy of these measurements were investigated. It is demonstrated that this specially developed multi-material additive manufacturing process for polyaniline is an attractive approach for the fabrication of implant components having embedded smart-polymer sensors for the measurement and analysis of joint loads in orthopaedic implants.

Abstract: Doppler renal resistive index (RRI) has been used for several decades as a potential indi-cator for renal disease and progression. In recent years, RRI has emerged as a useful prognostic indicator for a range of co-morbidities in patients who are acutely unwell and as a potential marker for sub-clinical acute kidney injury (AKI) and post procedural AKI risk. Despite this, the clinical and theoretical determinants of RRI are poorly understood and remain contentious. Method: A narrative review of studies exploring the theoretical, experimental, and clinical evidence for factors affecting RRI. No date restrictions were set. Findings: Both experimental and clinical data confirm that RRI is markedly affected by a range of systemic and renal determinants and is influenced closely by the underlying risk factors and sys-temic vascular changes that lead to progressive renal damage. Discussion: This paper provides an overview of the key haemodynamic determinants of renal re-sistive index and aims to clarify their relative importance. With reference to a simplified theoretical model, evidence from experimental and clinical studies is reviewed. Pathophysiological factors and patient characteristics that influence RRI are explored to provide a better understanding of why RRI values change in the presence of common or complex pathologies. Conclusion: By gaining a better understanding of the complex systemic and renal factors that influ-ence RRI, ultrasound users will be better prepared to understand and interpret changes in RRI across a range of patient presentations.

With the rise of Blockchain technology, the cryptocurrency market has been gaining significant interest. In particular, the number of cryptocurrency traders and the market capitalization have grown tremendously. However, predicting cryptocurrency price is very challenging and difficult due to the high price volatility. In this paper, we propose a classification machine learning approach in order to predict the direction of the market (i.e., if the market is going up or down). We identify key features such as Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) to feed the machine learning model. We illustrate our approach through the analysis of Bitcoin close price. We evaluate the proposed approach via different simulations. Particularly, we provide a backtesting strategy. The evaluation results show that the proposed machine learning approach provides buy and sell signals with more than 86% accuracy.

Complex models have received significant interest in recent years and are being increasingly used to explain the stochastic phenomenon with upward and downward fluctuation such as the stock market. Different from existing semi-variance methods in traditional integer dimension construction for two variables, this paper proposes a simplified multi-factorized fractional dimension derivation with the exact Excel tool algorithm involving the fractional center moment extension to covariance, which is a complex parameter average that is a multi-factorized extension to Pearson covariance. By examining the peaks and troughs of gold price averages, the proposed algorithm provides more insight into revealing underlying stock market trends to see who is the financial market leader during good economic times. The calculation results demonstrate that the complex covariance is able to distinguish subtle differences among stock market performances and gold prices for the same field that the two variable covariance may overlook. We take the London, Tokyo, Shanghai, Toronto and Nasdaq as the representative examples.

This article presents the implementation of a model to estimate the future price of commodities in the Brazilian market from time series of short-term technical evaluation. For this, data from two databases were used, one referring to the foreign market (opening values, maximum, minimum, closing, closing adjustment and volume) and the other, from the Brazilian market (the price of the day), considering commodities, sugar, cotton, corn, soybean and wheat. Subsequently, the technical indicators were calculated from the TA-Lib technical analysis library. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was applied, records with low correlation were removed, and then the database was consolidated. From the pre-processed data, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks were used to perform data prediction at the one and three day interval. These models were evaluated using the mean square error (MSE), obtaining results between 0.00010 and 0.00037 on test data one day ahead, and from 0.00017 to 0.00042 three days ahead. However, based on the results obtained, it was observed that the developed model obtained a promising forecasting performance for all the commodities evaluated. As a main contribution, there is the consolidation of databases that can be used in future scientific research. Furthermore, based on its interpretation, it can assist in decision making regarding the buying and selling of commodities to increase financial gains.

Accurate electricity price forecasting has become a substantial requirement since the liberalization of the electricity markets. Due to the challenging nature of the electricity prices, which includes high volatility, sharp price spikes and seasonality, various types of electricity price forecasting models still compete and can not outperform each other consistently. Neural Networks have been successfully used in machine learning problems and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have been proposed to address time-dependent learning problems. In particular, Long Short Term Memory and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) are tailor-made for time series price estimation. In this paper, we propose to use Gated Recurrent Units as a new technique for electricity price forecasting. We have trained a variety of algorithms with rolling 3-year window and compared the results with the RNNs. In our experiments, 3-layered GRUs outperformed all other neural network structures and state of the art statistical techniques in a statistically significant manner in the Turkish day-ahead market.

Snowpack seasonality in the conterminous United States (U.S.) is explored using a daily,14 km horizontal resolution gridded snow water equivalent and snow depth reanalysis product. I2calculated seasonal snowpacks using two established methods: (1) the classic Sturm approach that3requires 60 days of snow cover with a peak depth >50 cm and (2) the snow seasonality metric (SSM)4that only requires 60 days of continuous snow cover. The latter approach yields continuous values5from -1 to +1, where -1 (+1) indicates an ephemeral (seasonal) snowpack. Both approaches identify6seasonal snowpacks in western mountains and the northernmost central and eastern U.S. By relaxing7the depth constraint and providing continuous values, the SSM identifies greater areas of seasonal8snowpacks compared to the Sturm method, particularly in the upper Midwest, New England, and the9Intermountain West. Ephemeral snowpacks are identified throughout lower elevation regions of the10western U.S. and across a broad swath centered near 35°N spanning the lee of the Rocky Mountains11to the Atlantic coast. Because it lacks a depth constraint, the SSM approach is sensitive to interannual12variability, indicating it may inform the location of shallow but long-duration snowpacks at risk13of transitioning to becoming ephemeral with climatic change. A case study in Oregon during an14extreme snow drought year highlights seasonal to ephemeral snowpack transitions.

Solar and wind resources available for power generation are subject to variability due to meteorological factors. Here, we use a new global climate reanalysis product, Version 2 of the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2), to quantify interannual variability of monthly-mean solar and wind resource from 1980 to 2016 at a resolution of about 0.5 degrees. We find an average coefficient of variation (CV) of 11% for monthly-mean solar radiation and 8% for windspeed. Mean CVs were about 25% greater over ocean than over land, and, for land areas, were greatest at high latitude. The correlation between solar and wind anomalies was near zero in the global mean, but markedly positive or negative in some regions. Both wind and solar variability were correlated with values of climate modes such as the Southern Oscillation Index and Arctic Oscillation, with correlations in the Northern Hemisphere generally stronger during winter. We conclude that reanalysis solar and wind fields could be helpful in assessing variability in power generation due to interannual fluctuations in the wind and solar resource. Skillful prediction of these fluctuations seems to be possible, particularly for certain regions and seasons, given persistence or predictability of climate modes with which these fluctuations are associated.

Rainfall variability has resulted in extreme events like devastating floods and droughts which is the main cause of human vulnerability to precipitation in West Africa. Attempts have been made by previous studies to understand rainfall variability over Ghana but these have mostly focused on the major rainy season of April-July, leaving a gap in our understanding of the variability in the September-November season which is a very important aspect of the Ghanaian climate system. The current study seeks to close this knowledge gap by employing statistical tools to quantify variabilities in rainfall amounts, rain days, and extreme precipitation indices in the minor rainfall season over Ghana. We find extremely high variability in rainfall with a Coefficient of variation (CV) between 25.3% and 70.8%, and moderate to high variability in rain days (CV=14.0% - 48.8%). Rainfall amount was found to be higher over the middle sector (262.7 mm – 400.2 mm) but lowest over the east coast (125.2 mm – 181.8 mm). Analysis of the second rainfall season using the Mankandell Test presents a non-significant trend of rainfall amount and extreme indices (R10, R20, R99p, and R99p) for many places in southern Ghana. Rainfall Anomaly Indices show that the middle sector recorded above normal precipitation which is the opposite for areas in the transition zone. The result of this work provides a good understanding of rainfall in the minor rainfall season and may be used for planning purposes.

COPD is currently the fourth leading cause of death in the world. Globally, due to continued exposure to COPD risk factors and an aging population, the burden of COPD is expected to increase in the coming decades. The BODE (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity) index is a practical and multidimensional predictor for prognosis of COPD, and better than FEV1.We used the database of Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital medical center, Taiwan to analyze the correlation between BODE index, healthcare resource utilization, and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). This retrospective study to collect COPD patients with complete BODE index data who had undergone a 6-minute walk examination in our hospital from January 2015 to December 2016. The medical cost and comorbidities database were analyzed from January 1, 2015, to August 31, 2017. Of 396 patients, 382 (96.5%) were male, with an average age of 71.3 ± 8.4 years. There was a significant association between the BODE index and the CCI of COPD patients (p < 0.001). Healthcare resource utilization was positively correlated with the BODE index during the 32 months of retrospective clinical outcomes: positively correlated with the number of hospitalizations (p<0.001), hospitalization days (p<0.001), hospitalization expenses (p=0.005), and total medical expenses (p=0.024), respectively. Our findings provide the crucial information for clinician to predict medical burden and comorbidities in patients with COPD by using BODE index.

This study used the ECOSSE model (v. 5.0.1) to simulate soil respiration (Rs) flux-es estimated from ecosystem respiration (Reco) for eight European permanent grassland (PG) sites with varying grass species, soils, and management. The main aim was to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the model in estimating Rs from grasslands, and to gain a better understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle and how Rs is affect-ed by natural and anthropogenic drivers. Results revealed that the current version of the ECOSSE model may not be reliable for estimating daily Rs fluxes, particularly in dry sites. However, it could still be a valuable tool for predicting cumulative Rs from PG. Additionally, the model demonstrated accurate simulation of Rs in response to grass cutting and slurry application practices. The sensitivity analyses and attribution tests revealed that increased soil organic carbon (SOC), soil pH, temperature, reduced precipitation, and lower water table (WT) depth could lead to increased Rs from soils. The variability of Rs fluxes across sites and years was attributed to climate, weather, soil properties, and management practices. The study suggests the need for additional development and application of the ECOSSE model, specifically in dry and low input sites, to evaluate the impacts of various land management interventions on carbon sequestration and emissions in PG.

In Bangladesh, climate change is a major concern because of its geophysical location and climate dependent agriculture. As sessile organisms, crops plants have to face difficulties often in this environmentally vulnerable country. Therefore, this study examines the seasonal trend of two climatic parameters viz. temperature (maximum and minimum) and rainfall over a period of 1983 to 2013. Besides, this study provides insight into the relationship between climatic parameters and crop yield of two major crops viz. rice and wheat during 1997-2013. To assess the relationship of climatic parameters with time and yield using Pearson correlation analysis, time series data used at an aggregate level. SPSS software utilized for this analysis. The cropping seasons such as rice growing seasons Aus (summer rice), Aman (autumn rice) and Boro (winter rice) exhibited a significant increase in maximum and minimum temperature. Rainfall found to have a decreasing trend for all the seasons. This study also revealed that the climatic parameters had significant effects on rice yield, but these results varied among three rice crops. Maximum temperature had positive effects on all rice yields, especially on Aus and Aman. Minimum temperature had a negative effect on Aman rice yield but a positive effect on Aus rice yield. Wheat yield negatively associated with temperature. Rainfall exhibited negative relation with both rice and wheat yield.

The limitedness of the nonrenewable local energy resources in Israel, even in background of the later gas fields’ findings, continues to force the state to devote various efforts for the ‘green’ energy development. These efforts include installations both in the solar and in the wind energy, with a purpose to improve the diversity of energy sources. While the standard discounted cash flow (DCF) method using the net present value (NPV) criterion is extensively adopted to evaluate investments, the standard DCF method is inappropriate for the rapidly changing investment climate and for the managerial flexibility in investment decisions. In recent years, the real options analysis (ROA) technique is widely applied in many studies for valuation of renewable energy investment projects. Hence, we apply in this study the real options analysis approach for the valuation of wind energy turbines and apply it to the analysis of wind energy economic potential in Israel.

The development of reliable predictive algorithm for house price as the housing market is a stand-out among the most involved regarding valuing the price and continues to fluctuate, is constantly a need for socio-economic advancement and welfare of citizen. In this paper, we develop machine learning algorithms for forecasting UK housing Price, and find an optimal algorithm that forecasts housing price accurately on the premises of the presence of many features or covariates. After applying correlation analysis to remove correlated variables in order to avoid multicollinearity, thereby increasing the statistical power, a novel method of using regression analysis to first of all understand and select statistically significant features for the various regions in England based on North South divide is adopted. These features are then used in the machine learning algorithm to further increase the statistical power of the algorithm, increase the level of accuracy for each of them and ultimately increase the predictive values for the algorithms. The model construction involves 3 stages: 1- correlation analysis to identify and remove correlated variables thereby avoiding multicollinearity and increasing the statistical power of the linear regression, 2 - using linear regression to determine variables that are statistically significant and 3 - building the machine learning algorithms based on the variables that are statistically significant from the linear regression. A comprehensive dataset of UK Paid housing Price from 2010 to 2019 was linked to a number of other datasets to generate a total 21 variables or features used for the models. Catboost, Gradient Boosting, Bagging, Random Forest, Extra Tree all achieved the excellent models performance result in all the regions considered. The comparison of the seven models showed that Extra Tree algorithm consistently achieved the best performance in term of level of accuracy in all the regions. K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) is the only algorithm with less than 50% level of accuracy. Noticeably, the regions considered had varying or differing insignificant variables, implying that although many variables are common (statistically significant) to all the regions, there are regional differences and impact when modelling or predicting housing prices. This study validates the practicability of developing a machine learning methodology for the prediction of housing price. This research offers a reference for future house price prediction based on machine learning.

Prediction markets are heralded as powerful forecasting tools, but models to describe them often fail to capture the full complexity of the underlying mechanisms that drive price dynamics. To address this issue, we propose a model in which agents belong in a social network, have an opinion about the probability of a particular event to occur, and bet on the prediction market accordingly. Agents update their opinions about the event by interacting with their neighbours in the network, following the Deffuant model of opinion dynamics. Our results suggest that a simple market model that takes into account opinion formation dynamics is capable to replicate the empirical properties of historical prediction market time series, including volatility clustering and fat-tailed distribution of returns. Interestingly, the best results are obtained when there is the right level of variance in the opinions of the agents. Moreover, this paper provides a new way to indirectly validate opinion dynamics models against real data by using historical data obtained from PredictIt, an exchange platform whose data has never been used before to validate models of opinion diffusion.

Predicting copper price is essential for making decisions that can affect companies and governments dependent on the copper mining industry. Copper prices follow a time series that is non-linear, non-stationary, and which have periods that change as a result of potential growth, cyclical fluctuation and errors. Sometimes the trend and cyclical components together are referred to as a trend-cycle. In order to make predictions, it is necessary to consider the different characteristics of trend-cycle. In this paper, we study a copper price prediction method using Support Vector Regression. This work explores the potential of the Support Vector Regression with external recurrences to make predictions at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 days into the future in the copper closing price at the London Metal Exchanges. The best model for each forecast interval is performed using a grid search and balanced cross-validation. In experiments on real data-sets, our results obtained indicate that the parameters (C, ε, γ) of the model Support Vector Regression do not differ between the different prediction intervals. Additionally, the amount of preceding values used to make the estimates does not vary according to the predicted interval. Results show that the support vector regression model has a lower prediction error and is more robust. Our results show that the presented model is able to predict copper price volatilities near reality, being the RMSE equal or less than the 2.2% for prediction periods of 5 and 10 days.

The aim of the study was to examine the use of video-based communication and its association with loneliness, mental health and quality of life in older adults (60-69 years versus 70+ years) during the COVID-19 pandemic. A cross-sectional online survey was conducted in Norway, UK, USA and Australia during April/May 2020, and 836 participants in the relevant age groups were included in the analysis. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to examine associations between use of video-based communication tools and loneliness, mental health and quality of life within age groups, while adjusting by sociodemographic variables. Video-based communication tools were found to be more often used among participants aged 60-69 years (60.1%), compared to participants aged 70 or above (51.8%, p < 0.05). Adjusting for all variables, use of video-based communication was associated with less loneliness (β = -0.12, p < 0.01) and higher quality of life (β = 0.14, p < 0.01) among participants aged 60-69 years, while no associations occurred for participants in the oldest age group. The use of video-based communication tools was therefore associated with favorable psychological outcomes among participants in their sixties, but not among participants in the oldest age group. The study results support the notion that age may influence the association between use of video-based communication tools and psychological outcomes amongst older people.

COVID-19 has been a global healthcare concern impacting multiple aspects of individual and community wellness. As one moves forward with different methods to reduce the infection and mortality rates, it is critical to continue to study the impact that national and local ‘social distancing’ policies have on the daily lives of individuals. The aim of this study was to examine loneliness in relation to risk assessment, measures taken against risks, concerns, and social media use, while adjusting for sociodemographic variables. The cross-sectional study collected data from 3469 individuals from USA, UK, Norway, and Australia. Loneliness was measured with the de Jong Gierveld Loneliness Scale. Multiple linear regression was used in the analysis of associations between variables. The results showed that concerns about finances were more strongly associated with social loneliness, while concerns about the future was more strongly associated with emotional loneliness. Longer daily time spent on social media was associated with higher emotional loneliness. In conclusion, pandemic-related concerns seem to affect their perceptions of loneliness. While social media can be used productively to maintain relationships, and thereby prevent loneliness, excessive use may be counterproductive.

Background Due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the strict national policies regarding social distancing behavior in Europe, America and Australia, people became reliant on social media as a means for gathering information and a tool for staying connected to family, friends and work. This is the first trans-national study exploring the qualitative experiences and challenges of using social media while in lockdown or shelter in place during the current pandemic. Methods This study was part of a wider cross-sectional online survey conducted in Norway, UK, USA and Australia during April/May 2020. The manuscript reports on the qualitative free text component of the study asking about the challenges of social media users during the Covid-19 pandemic in UK, USA and Australia. 1991 responses were included in the analysis. Thematic analysis was conducted independently by two researchers. Results Three overarching themes identified were: Emotional/Mental Health, Information and Being Connected. Participants experienced that using social media during the pandemic amplified anxiety, depression, fear, panic, anger, frustration and loneliness. They felt that there was information overload and social media was full of misleading or polarized opinions from which was difficult to switch off. Nonetheless, participants also thought that there was an urge for connection and learning which was positive and stressful and the same time. Conclusion Using social media while in shelter in place or lockdown could have a negative impact on the emotional and mental health of some of the population. To support policy and practice in strengthening mental health care in the community, social media could be used to deliver practical advice on coping and stress management. Communication with the public should be strengthened by unambiguous and clear messages and clear communication pathways. We should be looking at alternative ways of staying connected.

The main aim of this article is to examine the inter-relationships among the top cryptocurrencies on the crypto stock market in the presence and absence of the COVID-19 pandemic. The nine chosen cryptocurrencies are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, Eos, BitcoinCash, Binance, Stellar, and Tron and their daily closing price data are captured from coinmarketcap over the period from 9/13/2017 to 9/21/2020. To determine the order of integration, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP), and Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (KPSS) unit root tests were carried out, and all of the cryptocurrencies were found to be integrated of order 1 i.e. I(1). It has been found that there is strong evidence of a long-run relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins irrespective of whether it is pre-pandemic or pandemic period. Hence these cryptocurrencies' prices and their inter-relationship are resilient to the pandemic.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze market reflexivity in agricultural futures contracts with different maturities. To this end, we apply a four-dimensional Hawkes model to storable and non-storable agricultural commodities. We find market reflexivity for both storable and non-storable commodities. Reflexivity accounts for about 50 to 70 percent of the total trading activity. Differences between nearby and deferred contracts are less pronounced for non-storable than for storable commodities. We conclude that the co-existence of exogenous and endogenous price dynamics does not change qualitative characteristics of the price discovery process that have been observed earlier without consideration of market reflexivity.

The prediction of stock prices holds significant implications for researchers and investors in evaluating stock value and risk. In recent years, researchers have increasingly replaced traditional machine learning methods with deep learning approaches in this domain. However, the application of deep learning in forecasting stock prices is confronted with the challenge of overfitting. To address the issue of overfitting and enhance predictive accuracy, this study proposes a stock prediction model based on GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) with reconstructed datasets. This model integrates data from other stocks within the same industry, thereby enriching the extracted features and mitigating the risk of overfitting. Additionally, an auxiliary module is employed to augment the volume of data through dataset reconstruction, thereby enhancing the model’s training comprehensiveness and generalization capabilities. Experimental results demonstrate a substantial improvement in prediction accuracy across various industries.

Fluctuating stock prices make it difficult for investors to see investment opportunities. One tool that can help investors overcome this is forecasting techniques. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is one of deep learning methods used in forecasting time series. The training and success of deep learning is strongly influenced by the selection of hyperparameters. This research uses a hybrid method between the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and LSTM to find a suitable model for predicting stock prices. GA is used in optimizing the architecture such as the number of epochs, window size, and the number of LSTM units in the hidden layer. Tuning optimizer is also carried out using several optimizers to achieve the best value. From method that has been applied, it shows that the method has a good level of accuracy with MAPE values below 10% in every optimizer used. The error rate generated is quite low, in case-1 with a minimum RMSE value of 93.03 and 94.40, & in case-2 with an RMSE value of 104.99 and 150.06 during training and testing. A fairly stable and small value is generated by setting it using the Adam Optimizer.

Droughts are a common occurrence in various climates and are primarily caused by a prolonged decrease in rainfall. Several factors contribute to droughts, including temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, rainfall timing, amount, and intensity during the growing season. The objective of this study is to establish a new index, named soil moisture and evapotranspiration revealed drought index (SERDI), for displaying dry and wet conditions based on combining both soil moisture and evapotranspiration (Penman-Monteith) to improve drought early warning and its severity globally. For validation of the SERDI with other indices such as LST, VHI, NDVI, and NDWI, different ways used such as R-square, RMSE, MAPE, and P-value to estimate the accuracy, variability of data, the forecast conditions, and how the significance of data. The results showed that the low RMSE and high r² were found between SERDI with LST and VHI. In contrast, the low R- square and high RMSE were between SERDI with NDVI and NDWI in most of the semi-arid areas. Furthermore, most of the semi-arid areas from Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, and Israel experienced moderate and severe dry conditions, except some parts of these regions had normal conditions in Iran and Syria. The SERDI analysis revealed a strong correlation between (LST) and a moderate correlation with (VHI) across all study areas. However, the relationship between other indices, like (NDWI) and (NDVI), varied depending on the regions. To conclude, SERDI can be used globally for detecting drought based on soil moisture and evapotranspiration.

Accurate seasonal weather forecasts are vital across a broad spectrum of applications, bearing significant environmental and socioeconomic implications. This importance renders the subject a matter of primary interest to a wide range of stakeholders, including the general public, agricultural sector, emergency responders, financial institutions, and policy strategists. The need for precision in long-term predictive models necessitates the development of innovative methodologies. These methodologies should be capable of deciphering atmospheric patterns and mechanisms with detail, especially at a local level, without the resource constraints that dynamical downscaling imposes. In response to this expanding demand, this study presents a novel solution, combining a stochastic deep learning methodology, specifically Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The cornerstone of the proposed model is the enhancement of gridded temperature fields from seasonal forecasts. The area of focus was the Hellenic region, wherein the spatial resolution is amplified from a coarse 1° x 1° grid to an impressively detailed 0.1° x 0.1° grid. This offers a transformative perspective for interpreting and employing this crucial meteorological data. The results suggest that the downscaled fields adequately approximate the actual spatial distribution, although the predicted values tend to slightly overestimate and in some cases underestimate the original ones. This study underlines the potential of this approach to significantly enhance the resolution and utility of weather forecasts, thereby contributing to a variety of sectors dependent on reliable meteorological data.

We define a new seasonal forecasting method based on fuzzy transforms. We use the best interpolating polynomial for extracting the trend of the time series and generate the inverse fuzzy transform on each seasonal subset of the universe of discourse for predicting the value of a an assigned output. Like first example, we use the daily weather dataset of the municipality of Naples (Italy) starting from data collected from 2003 till to 2015 making predictions on the following outputs: mean temperature, max temperature and min temperature, all considered daily. Like second example, we use the daily mean temperature measured at the weather station “Chiavari Caperana” in the Liguria Italian Region. We compare the results with our method, the average seasonal variation, ARIMA and the usual fuzzy transforms concluding that the best results are obtained under our approach in both examples.

The general objective of the study is to analyze food insecurity determinants mainly related to food price at macro level. The study used a time series data from the year 1988 quarter one to 2018 quarter four. Our empirical finding on the macroeconomic model show the short term consequence of food price change is positive with food security (negative with food insecurity). The long term consequence of food price change is, however, negative with food security (positive with food insecurity) at macro level. From the variance decomposition, it can be learned that the speed by which the undernourished people decrease in number in the short term because of the inflation happened is higher than the speed by which the number of undernourished people increase in the long run. At macro level, concern should be made to the supply side for food security improvement.

Empirical evidence is lacking on the nexus between coffee commodity output, climate change and commodity price volatility of Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria and other developing countries. To fill this gap, this study analyzed the reaction of coffee output to climate change and commodity price volatility. We used secondary data from 1961 to 2015 from reliable sources for Nigeria. The study adopted GARCH, ARCH and FMOLS in analysis of coffee output reaction to climate change and commodity price volatility. The findings show that coffee output in Nigeria is influenced by climate change and the international commodity price of coffee. The study demonstrates the potential benefits of improving coffee output and export through climate mitigation and adaptation measures and revival of Agricultural Commodity Marketing in Nigeria and other developing countries.

China combines green energy and industrial policy in its power market reform with various policy initiatives, including price support scheme for electricity from renewable sources and subsidies in the push for broader use of greener energy. This study focuses on the impacts of power market reform on the stock price volatility of listed power companies: 1) we use the Iterative Cumulative Sums of Squares (ICSS) algorithm to identify structural break points in stock prices; 2) we analyze the characteristics of stock price volatility based on the GARCH model; 3) we report the impact of power regulation on stock price fluctuations based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The result suggests three structural breaks in China’s power stock price volatility were related to the promulgation of power market reform policies. We find that industrial policies promote the reduction of power stock price fluctuations and its impact on power stock price volatility is consistent in the long run. However, our study also indicates the recent policies related to renewable energy do not have a very significant impact on the power stock market.

This paper investigates the impact of price and real exchange rate volatility on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in a panel of 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries, observed between 1990 and 2012. Both price and exchange rate volatility series are estimated through the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH). Our results, obtained employing the Fixed Effects estimator, confirm the theory of hysteresis and option value, in so far it is found a statistically significant negative effect of exchange rate volatility on FDI. Price volatility, instead, turns out to be positive but insignificant. Moreover, we show that human capital and trade openness are key for attracting foreign capital. From the policy perspective, our analysis suggests the importance of stabilization policies as well as the one of government credibility in promoting trade openness and human capital formation.

This narrative review aims to summarize evidence regarding the current utilization and future applications of neuromodulation in patients with headaches, with special attention paid to migraine and chronic cluster headache. We performed a narrative review of the literature to identify studies that detail the effectiveness of neuromodulation therapies in the treatment of headache syndromes. The literature was refined to predominantly focus on systematic reviews published in the last year that have the most robust reporting of research done on this topic. Patients with headache face several challenges, including medication overuse, cost burden, non-compliance to medications due to inability to tolerate side effects, or treatments that are ineffective. Neuromodulation is an emerging field that encompasses implantable and non-implantable technologies that intervene on the signaling and perception of pain. In recent years, this technology has been used as an analgesic, and has been shown to be effective for treatment-resistant headache, particularly when used in patients with migraine and chronic cluster headache.

The International Roughness Index (IRI) is the standard scale for evaluating road roughness in many countries in the world. The Taipei City government actively promotes a Road Smoothing Project and plans to complete the rehabilitation of the main and minor roads within its jurisdiction. This study aims to detect the road surface roughness in Taipei City and recommend appropriate IRI thresholds for road rehabilitation. A total of 171 asphalt concrete pavement sections in Taipei City with a total length of 803.49 km were analyzed and compared by IRI. The longitudinal profile of the detected road sections was measured using an inertial profiler. The statistical analysis showed that the IRI value prior to road leveling was mainly distributed between 5 and 8 m/km, while the IRI value after road leveling was mainly distributed between 3 and 4.5 m/km. This confirms that the implementation of the Road Smoothing Project has a significant effect on improving road smoothness. Moreover, based on the analysis results, it is recommended that the IRI threshold value for road rehabilitation in Taipei City be set at 4.50 m/km.

The recent consecutive economic and social crises impose sustainable “form farm to fork” food chain management to feed the global population. In this study we investigate young consumers (Gen Z) price perceptions in purchasing foods in Greece to find out the determinants ensuring sustainable, future food consumption. We used 8 overall price perceptions determinants, 5 with negative roles namely value &amp; price consciousness, coupon &amp; sales proneness, price mavenism and 3 with positive roles namely price-quality, price-value, and prestige-sensitivity for the formation of the study’s questionnaire. A total of 514 students (Gen Z by 85%) answered the questionnaire, promoted through the Google platform during September and October 2023. Data was analyzed with statistical tools, combining cross and chi-square tests. Between the negative determinants the “value consciousness” price perceptions (71.02%) were the most important parameters in purchasing food, followed by “price consciousness” (55.02%) parameters. “Coupon proneness” by 48.4% and “sales proneness” by 49% parameters were equally lower to the participants’ references, while “price mavenism” parameters were minimally preferred by only 26.4% by the participants. Participants exhibited major preference for “value to price” interconnection (66.7%) such as for good value for money, value exceeding its price, overvalued low priced foods, while their preference for “quality to price” interconnection was significantly lower (48.8%) such as for getting what you pay, more money for better quality, priced quality foods. The “prestige- sensitivity” price perception was out of their preference for food purchase (only 7.1%). Our findings indicate that young consumers (Gen Z) pay more attention to the value negative and positive parameters concerning price perceptions for food purchase rather than quality, coupons &amp; sales, low price, and mavenism or even prestige of the foods. This means that value issues such as the perceived environmental impact (green value), the climate crisis, the social signaling potential and others are high in their concerns for their future including their price perceptions for food purchase.

A simple bounded stochastic motion is employed for modelling equity price dynamics under shocks, where the prices are constrained to lie between two positive bounds. While the stochastic process has an inaccessible boundary, the other boundary is quasi-bounded, implying that the boundary can be breached if the probability leakage condition is met. The quasi-boundedness of the process at the boundary can thus provide an indicator of possible risk of equities under price shocks. Empirical calibration of model parameters of the proposed process for equities can be performed easily due to the availability of an analytically tractable probability density function which generates fat-tailed distributions consistent with empirical observations. The volatility and mean-reversion of the S&P500 dynamics calibrated by the process is positively and negatively co-integrated respectively with the VIX index representing the level of market distress. The process captures the high likelihood of Hertz’s default about two months earlier, using only information until that point, and before the firm filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in May 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. Empirical calibration of the process for GameStop’s stock price shows that the short squeeze of the stock occurred when the condition for breaching an upper boundary was met on 14 January 2021, i.e., about two weeks before major short sellers closed out their positions with significant losses. The trading volume of the stock was positively co-integrated with the probability leakage ratio.

With a data revolution underway for some time, there is an increasing demand for formal privacy protection mechanisms that are not so destructive. Hereof microaggregation is a popular high-utility approach designed to satisfy the popular k-anonymity criteria while applying low distortion to data. However, standard performance metrics are commonly based on mean square error, which will hardly capture the utility degradation related to a specific application domain of data. In this work, we evaluate the performance of k-anonymous microaggregation in terms of the loss in classification accuracy of the machine learned models built from perturbed data. Systematic experimentation is carried out on four microaggregation algorithms that are tested over four data sets. The empirical utility of the resulting microaggregated data is assessed using the learning algorithm that obtains the highest accuracy from original data. Validation tests are performed on a test set of non perturbed data. The results confirm k-anonymous microaggregation as a high-utility privacy mechanism in this context and distortion based on mean squared error as a poor predictor of practical utility. Finally, we corroborate the beneficial effects for empirical utility of exploiting the statistical properties of data when constructing privacy preserving algorithms.

Predicting electricity prices is a very important issue in modern society, because the associated decision process under uncertainty requires accurate forecasts for the economic agents involved. In this paper, we apply the decision tree extension of Random Forests to the prediction of electricity prices in Spain, but with the novelty of modeling prices jointly with demand, with the purpose of achieving greater accuracy than with univariate response Random Forests, particularly in price prediction, as well as understanding the effect of the input variables (lagged values of price and demand, current production levels of available energy sources) on the joint of the two outputs. The results are very encouraging, providing significant increase in price prediction accuracy. Also, interesting methodological challenges appear as far as the appropriate choice of the relative weights of price and demand in the joint modeling is concerned and a new procedure to provide the importance variable ranking is proposed. The partykit (package of R software) library allowing for multivariate Random Forests has been used.

Purpose: To evaluate seasonal variation in intra-ocular pressure (IOP) with and without short tear break-up time (SBUT, BUT ≤ 5 s). Methods: This study enrolled 176 patients who visited one of six eye clinics in Japan for IOP measurement at every season. The mean patient age was 67.9 years, including 79 males. We compared the seasonal variation in IOP (mean ± SD) across spring (Mar-May), summer (Jun-Aug), fall (Sep-Nov), and winter (Dec-Feb). Results: The IOP (mmHg) in winter and summer, respectively, was 12.8 ± 3.7 and 12.8 ± 3.1 for non-glaucoma patients without SBUT (n = 47, P = 0.964), 14.8 ± 3.4 and 13.3 ± 3.4 for non-glaucoma patients with SBUT (n = 57, P < 0.001), 14.3 ± 3.2 and 14.1 ± 3.4 for glaucoma patients without SBUT (n = 36, P = 0.489), and 13.3 ± 3.0 and 11.6 ± 2.9 for glaucoma with SBUT (n = 36, P < 0.001). Seasonal variation was largest across the seasons in the glaucoma with SBUT group, and the magnitude of seasonal variation correlated with BUT (β = 0.228, P = 0.003). Conclusions: Seasonal variation tended to be larger in patients with SBUT than those without SBUT.

In Taiwan, mountainous areas account for approximately two-thirds of the total area. The steep terrain and concentrated rainfall during typhoons cause landslides, which pose a considerable threat to mountain settlements. Therefore, models for analyzing rainfall-induced landslide hazards are urgently required to ensure adequate land use in mountainous areas. In this study, focusing on Pingtung County in southern Taiwan, we developed a landslide hazard index (IRL) to land use. Using FORMOSA-2 and SPOT-5 satellite images, data were collected before and after four typhoons (one in 2009 and three in 2013). The ArcGIS random tree classifier was used for interpreting satellite images to explore surface changes and disasters, which were used to analyze slope disturbances. The product of the maximum 3-h rolling rainfall intensity and effective accumulated rainfall was used as a rainfall trigger index (IRT). Considering environmental and slope disturbance factors, an index of slope environmental strength potential (ISESP) was developed through logistic regression (LR). Landslide hazard to land use was estimated using IRT and ISESP. The average coefficient of agreement (Kappa) was approximately 0.71 (medium to high accuracy); the overall accuracy of slope environmental strength potential analysis was approximately 80.4%. At a constant ISESP, IRT increased with the increasing hazard potential of rainfall-induced landslides. Furthermore, IRT and ISESP were positively correlated with landslide occurrence. When large ISESP values occur (e.g., fragile environment and high land development intensity), small IRT values may induce landslides.

In developed countries, especially the big-sized ones like Australia and the USA, a car is almost an inevitable necessity to carry out daily activities. Due to this, used cars have become a great alternative to brand new cars because of their cost effectiveness. In this work, estimation of prices of used cars based on numerous factors is studied statistically. Data is based on prices of used cars sold across Australia. Statistical methods like correlation and permutation tests using linear regression model, exact tests and non-parametric bootstrapping is implemented to study the relationship of price with mileage and year of manufacture of the car using p-values and null hypothesis. Predictions are also made on the price by calculating a 95% confidence interval (CI) of median prices in small portions of the dataset. The study presents potential ideas for understanding correlation between variables and parameters in business studies.

During few last years, climate change including global warming which is attributed to human activities and also its long-term adverse effects on the planet’s functions have been identified as the most challenging discussion topics which have arisen many concerns and efforts to find the possible solutions. Since the warmth arising from Earth’s landscapes affects the world’s weather and climate patterns, we decided to study the changes in the Land Surface Temperature (LST) patterns in different seasons through non-linear methods. Here, we particularly want to estimate the non-integer dimension and fractal structure of the land surface temperature. For this study, the (LST) data has been obtained during the daytime by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite. Depending on what time of the year data has been collected, temperatures change in different ranges. Since equatorial regions remain warm, and Antarctica and Greenland remain cold, and also because altitude affects temperature, we selected Riley County in the U.S. state of Kansas, which does not belong to any of this type locations and we are interested to observe the seasonal changes in temperature in this county. The results of the present study show that the Land Surface Temperature (LST) belongs to the class of fractal process with non-integer dimension.

The present study analyzed seasonal (i.e., Dec-Jan [DJF] and June – August [JJA]) temperature change for the near (2025-2054) and far future (2070-2099) under SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios over Pakistan. The anomalies, Mann-Kendall trend tests, Sequential Mann-Kendall trend test (SQMK), and probability density frequency (PDF) analysis were used to investigate future mean temperature variations. The DJF season projected higher increase in temperature in the northern (3.8 ^oC, 5.1 ^oC and 6.5 ^oC), followed by central regions (3.8 ^oC, 4.9 ^oC and 6.4 ^oC) under SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The central region is likely to record significant increase in JJA (3.0 ^oC, 4.4 ^oC and 5.4 ^oC) mean temperature in far future under the given SSP scenarios. Compared to historical (PDF), the far future DJF temperature changes revealed significant higher warming over northern, central and then over southern regions under most of SSP scenarios. The southern regions are projected to possible rise in far future JJA temperatures by 2.7 ^oC, 3.3 ^oC and 4.3 ^oC, under SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585, respectively. The PDFs for JJA further verify the highest positive abrupt shift in temperature across the central region and then southern region. The future diverse seasonal temperature changes supports further examination of the associated mechanisms and factors responsible for temperature changes to address climate change.

The Work Ability Index (WAI) is the most widely used questionnaire for the self-assessment of working ability. Because of its different applications, shorter versions, and widespread use in healthcare activities, it is worthwhile assessing its characteristics. The WAI was distributed online among the workers of a healthcare company; the results were compared with data contained in the workers' personal health records and with absence registers. 340 out of 575 workers (59.1%) participated; 6.5% of them reported poor work ability. Exploratory factor analysis indicated that the one-factor version best described the characteristics of the WAI. The scores of the complete WAI, the shorter form without the list of diseases, and the minimal one-item version (WAS) had equal distribution and were significantly correlated. The WAI score was inversely related to age and significantly lower in women than in men, but it was higher in night workers than in colleagues due to the probable effect of selective factors. The WAI score was also correlated with absenteeism, but no differences were found between males and females in the average number of absences, suggesting that cultural or emotional factors influence the self-rating of the WAI. Workers tended to overreport illnesses in the online survey compared to data collected during occupational health checks. Musculoskeletal disorders were the most frequently reported illnesses (53%). Psychiatric illnesses affected 21% of workers and had the greatest impact on work ability. Multilevel ergonomic and human factor intervention seems to be needed to recover the working capacity of healthcare workers.

This paper initiates the study of the mathematical aspects of the ad-hoc Lanzhou index. If G is a graph with the vertex set {x1,⋯,xn}, then the ad-hoc Lanzhou index of G is defined by Lz¯(G)=∑i=1ndi(n−1−di)2, where di represents the degree of the vertex xi. Several identities for the ad-hoc Lanzhou index, involving some existing topological indices are established. The problems of finding graphs with the extremum values of the ad-hoc Lanzhou index from the following sets of graphs are also attacked: (i) set of all connected ξ-cyclic graphs of a fixed order, (ii) set of all connected molecular ξ-cyclic graphs of a fixed order, (iii) set of all graphs of a fixed order, (iv) set of all connected molecular graphs of a fixed order.

In geotechnical engineering applications, it is very important to obtain the undrained shear strength of remolded soils accurately and reliably. This study aims to obtain a trustworthy solution to determine the undrained shear strength of remolded clay mixtures using Atterberg limit test results in various states of consistency. An experimental study was carried out involving a wide range of clay mixtures of varying plasticity and geological origin. In the analyses, the variation of the remolded undrained shear strength depending on the cone penetration depth, water content, flow index, liquidity index and log liquidity index were investigated. In the study, the highest undrained shear strength of 100% Na-montmorillonite (NaM) was obtained at 171.89 kPa at 56.60% water content, while the lowest undrained shear strength was obtained for 100% Sepiolite (S), 9.28 kPa at 31.65% water content. The results of this study revealed that the shear strength is significantly affected by soil conditions, rather than dominant clay mineral. Besides, it was observed that the undrained shear strength at the plastic limit was approximately 30-35 times greater than that at liquid limit. The equations of liquid limit-flow index and plasticity index- flow index were proposed. It was concluded that the interdependence between undrained shear strength, liquidity index, log liquidity index, and flow index is not unique due to the different physical and chemical properties of clays.

Phytoseiidae inhabit a wide range of herbs, shrubs and trees. Aesculus hippocastanum is an important ornamental tree in Europe and is likely reservoir of these mites. We therefore assessed the species composition and the spatial and seasonal variability in the abundance of Phytoseiidae in city parks in South Bohemia, Czech Republic. Leaf samples were randomly collected from horse chestnut tree branches at eight sites, five times during the vegetation season in 2013. The mites were collected by washing technique and mounted on slides for identification. In total, 13,903 specimens of phytoseiid mites were found, and eight species were identified: Amblyseius andersoni, Euseius finlandicus, Kampimodromus aberrans, Neoseiulella tiliarum, Phytoseilus macropilis, Paraseiulus talbii, Paraseiulus triporus and Typhlodromus (Typhlodromus) pyri. Paraseiulus talbii and P. macropilis were recorded on the leaves of horse chestnut trees for the first time in the Czech Republic in this study. The predominant species was E. finlandicus (96.25%). The number of mites per compound leaf was, on average, 2.53, 10.40, 23.54, 11.59 and 9.27 on the sampling dates in each month between May and September, respectively. The mite density was significantly affected by the sampling site and date.

There is a global rise in the emergence of infectious diseases and the enigmatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) being the most recent one. It is ravaging the world with little understanding of its etiology and factors affecting its transmission dynamics. Meanwhile, seasonal variations in weather are major factors impacting infectious disease transmission patterns. Developing countries are likely to be most affected by weather changes, largely because of challenges such as inadequate drainage and sewage management systems, healthcare facilities, education, and funding to efficiently mitigate infectious diseases. In Nigeria, weather conditions alternate between rainy and dry seasons. Conditions such as rainfall, flood, and humidity have been reported to influence infectious disease transmission. Thus, understanding the impact of weather changes in transmission dynamics and immune response to COVID 19 will help in preventive measures and policy making to curtail its spread most especially in Nigeria as the rainy season fully sets in.

Psyllids (Hemiptera: Psylloidea) can transmit the phloem restricted bacterium ‘Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum’ (Lso). In Europe, Lso causes severe losses to carrot and represents a threat to the potato industry. A rising concern of Lso transmission from carrot to potato and within potato has driven the need for monitoring populations of psyllid species that could serve as vectors on both crops, which would provide a fundamental understanding of the epidemiology of this pathogen. Different sampling methods were used to survey populations of psyllid species in commercial carrot and potato fields in Central and Eastern mainland Spain from 2015 to 2017. Two psyllid species, Bactericera trigonica and Bactericera nigricornis were found to be mainly associated with carrot and potato crops. In carrot fields the most abundant species was B. trigonica occurring from crop emergence to harvest, whereas in potato crops the most abundant psyllid species was B. nigricornis. The maximum psyllid population occurred between June and October its timing depending on the field location. Since B. nigricornis was found on both carrot and potato and is the only psyllid species able to feed and breed on both these crops in Europe, there is the potential risk of Lso transmission from carrot to potato

In this paper, we consider a manufacturer who produces and sells a kind of innovative product in the monopoly market environment. Because the life cycle of innovative product is usually shorter than its procurement lead time, one unique demand quantity (scenario) will occur in the selling season, thus there is only one chance for the manufacturer to determine both optimal production quantity and optimal sale price. Considering this one-time feature of such a decision problem, a price-setting newsvendor model for innovative products is proposed. Different to the existing price-setting newsvendor models, the proposed models determine the optimal production quantity and sale price based on some specific state (scenario) which is most applicable for the manufacturer. The theoretical analysis provides managerial insights into the manufacturers’ behaviors in a monopoly market of an innovative product and several phenomena in the luxury goods market are well explained.

The aim of this report is to evaluate the segmental rib index (RI) from T1-T12 spinal level in mild and moderate idiopathic scoliosis (IS) curves of thoracic, thoracolumbar and lumbar type by gender. The relationship of segmental RI to the frontal plane radiological deformity presented as the Cobb angle and to the posterior truncal surface deformity presented as the scoliometric readings of Angle of Trunk Rotation (ATR) in these patients is also assessed. Any statistical significant rela-tionship of these parameters would be very important for biomechanical relations of the rib cage (RC) deformity presented as the rib hump deformity (RHD) and the deformity in the spine and it would thus provide valuable information about scoliogeny. The segmental rib index (RI) is presented in 83 boys and girls with mild and moderate IS. The measurements include the scoliometric readings for truncal asymmetry (TA), the Cobb angle assessment and the segmental RI from T1-T12. The statistical package SPSS 23 was used for statistical analysis. The TA is documented and the Cobb angle is presented by gender and curve type. The segmental RI of thoracic, thoracolumbar and lumbar curves are presented for the first time. The correlations of the segmental RI to surface deformity presented as the rib hump deformity (RHD) in all IS patients and particularly in thoracic curves, to Cobb angle by gender and age and the comparison of the segmental RI index of asymmetric but not scoliotic children to the scoliotic peers by curve (in thoracic, thoracolumbar, lumbar curves) in boys and girls are presented. The findings emphasize the significant protagonistic role of the thoracic asymmetry in relation to the spinal deformity mainly in girls for the thoracic and in boys for the thoracolumbar curves. The cut-off point of age of the examined scoliotics is 14 years, that is when the RI shows stronger correlation with the spinal deformity, namely when the thoracic deformity is decisively effective to the developing thoracic spinal deformity, in terms of Cobb angle. In summary, the results of this study provide aetiological implications for IS, as far as the role of thorax is con-cerned.

The Metropolitan Economic Freedom Index (MEFI) ranks cities based on their support of free market enterprise. In its current state, MEFI purports to measure three constructs (government spending, taxation, and labor market freedom) with three equally weighted variables for each one, assuming perfect substitutability of variables. This study investigates the statistical consistency of MEFI through Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Multiple models investigate current variable selection by providing a potentially better indicator of labor market freedom, aggregation assumptions by removing the requirements for fixed and equal weights, and statistical consistency by evaluating the fit between the data and models. Results indicate that the current MEFI model is not statistically consistent with the data, that weighting of variables should not be equal, that variable selection should be investigated, and that constructs should be re-imagined. The models investigated provide an initial starting point for redefining MEFI.

Background: The seasonal variation of peptic ulcers is a rhythmic phenomenon reported worldwide, exhibiting diverse patterns and controversies. Unfortunately, it has remained an unresolved mystery for more than 90 years. Numerous studies have found that this phenomenon was closely associated with multiple environmental factors, but the underlying mechanism has never been elucidated. Objectives: This study aims to elucidate the seasonal variation of peptic ulcers and identify the role of environmental factors in the disease. Methods: Based on a recently identified etiology of peptic ulcers, two inverse operations in calculus, differentiation and integration, are iterated to analyze the existing data. First, the fluctuation curve in the seasonal variation is differentiated twice into the monthly incidences caused by multiple individual environmental factors, and the fluctuation curve due to each individual environmental factor is generated separately. Second, the monthly incidences caused by the individual environmental factors are integrated twice to reproduce the fluctuation curves in the seasonal variation of peptic ulcers. Results: The differentiations of the fluctuation curves in the season variation reveal a parallel relationship between the psychological impacts of each individual environmental factor and the monthly incidences of peptic ulcers. The integrations of the monthly incidences caused by 3 environmental factors reproduce the fluctuation curves in 3 representative seasonal patterns of peptic ulcers but make the parallel relationships invisible. Discussion: The parallel relationships revealed a causal role of environmental factors in peptic ulcers, whereas the reproduction of the fluctuation curves elucidated that multiple environmental factors cause the seasonal variation of peptic ulcers by Superposition Mechanism. The regional differences in environmental factors result in the diverse patterns, as well as the controversy questioning the seasonality of peptic ulcers. Significantly, the data analyses exemplify the application of a new concept, Superposition Mechanism, which might be an indispensable methodological complement to life science and medicine.

The literature, aimed at understanding the income-price elasticity of air passenger demand, bases its analysis on airport movement. The diversity of studies regarding the casualty between air transportation and economic growth are examples. Some studies covering this link, estimate the income-price relationship with the demand considering international traffic. Considering a domestic setting, where this traffic is significant in Brazil, studies related to remote regions are scarce, and the existing ones focus on governmental policies and subsidies. In addition, empirical studies on the theme consenter themselves in developed regions, such as Europe, North America, and Australia. For Brazil, where we find the Amazon region, there are no empirical researches. This paper analyses the price-income elasticity of the demand regarding domestic passengers in air links from remote cities of the Brazilian Amazon. This study uses panel data regression analysis method on a database of domestic scheduled flights of Brazil´s National Civil Aviation Agency. The results show that air passengers involving remote region flights present a lower sensitiveness regarding local income and airline´s price variations than those in flights among capitals. The higher difference is in income-elasticity of the remote city of origin, which is lower than that of the air traffic among capitals.

We propose a model for medium-term hydropower scheduling (MTHS) with variable head and uncertainty in inflow, reserve capacity, and energy price. With an increase of intermittent energy sources in the generation mix, it is expected that a flexible hydropower producer can obtain added profits by participating in other markets than just the energy market. To capture this added potential the hydropower system should be modeled with a higher level of details. In this context, we apply an algorithm based on stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) to solve the nonconvex MTHS problem, and show that the use of Strengthened Benders (SB) cuts to represent the expected future profit (EFP) function provide accurate scheduling results for slightly nonconvex problems. A method to visualize the EFP function in a dynamic programming setting is provided, serving as a useful tool for a priori inspection of the EFP shape and its nonconvexity.

Cancer cells are adept at reprogramming energy metabolism and the precise manifestation of this metabolic reprogramming exhibits heterogeneity across individuals (and from cell to cell). In this study, we analyzed the metabolic differences between interpersonal heterogeneous cancer phenotypes. We used divergence analysis on gene expression data of 1156 breast normal and tumor samples from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and integrated this information with a genome-scale reconstruction of human metabolism to generate personalized, context-specific metabolic networks. Using this approach, we classified the samples into four distinct groups based on their metabolic profiles. Enrichment analysis of the subsystems indicated that amino acid metabolism, fatty acid oxidation, citric acid cycle, androgen and estrogen metabolism and ROS detoxification distinguished these four groups. Additionally, we developed a workflow to identify potential drugs that can selectively target genes associated with the reactions of interest. MG-132 (a proteasome inhibitor) and OSU-03012 (a celecoxib derivative) were the top-ranking drugs identified from our analysis and known to have anti-tumor activity. Our approach has the potential to provide mechanistic insights into cancer-specific metabolic dependencies, ultimately enabling the identification of potential drug targets for each patient independently, contributing to a rational personalized medicine approach.

India is one of the large sources of the anthropogenic pollutants and their increasing emission due to the recent economic growth in India. In this study we analyzed the annual and seasonal behaviors of ozone (O₃) gas using satellite remote sensing dataset from the sources Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) over India region from 2006-2015. The study focuses on the seasonal behaviors of O₃ gas i.e., monthly, seasonal, annual mean variations of trace gas and also trend analysis of O₃ gas and comparison of the seasonal behavior of the ozone gas by trend analysis were assessed. In this study we also taken eleven cities to show the increment and decrement in four seasons of O₃ gas by taking 2006 as a base year and investigate the behaviors of gases during (2007-2015) years. Higher concentrations of O₃ south-to-north gradient, indicating the variations due to the impact of emissions and local meteorology. Ozone concentrations were higher during the warmer months. However, in winter season lowest concentration of O₃ seen due to the less amount of heat and due to cold days and ozone holes in the stratosphere. Instead, total O₃ concentrations rises over Delhi, Lucknow and Kolkata due to large population density, high traffic emission, highly polluted air and larger industrial activities.

The following article analyzes the determinants of the innovation index in Europe. The data refer to the European Innovation Scoreboard-EIS of the European Commission for the period between 2010 and 2019 for 36 countries. The data are analyzed using the following econometric techniques: Panel Data with Random Effects, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Dynamic Panel Data, Pooled OLS, WLS. The results show that the Innovation Index is negatively connected to some variables, among which the most significant are "GDP per capita", "R&D expenditure public sector", "Venture capital", "Tertiary education", and positively connected to some variables among which the most relevant are: "Government procurement of advanced technology products", "Average annual population growth", "Finance and support", "Human resources", "Marketing or organisational innovators", "Linkages". A clustering was then carried out using the unsupervised k-Means algorithm optimized with the Silhouette coefficient which shows the presence of 2 clusters per value of the Innovation Index. Eight machine learning algorithms has been used for prediction with real data. The Tree Ensemble Regression algorithm has been chosen as best performer. A further prediction has been made with the augmented data. The result shows that the best performing algorithm is Linear Regression with an innovation index value predicted to grow by approximately 3.38%.

The distribution laws of various natural and anthropogenic processes in the world around us are stochastic in nature. The development of mathematics and, in particular, of stochastic modelling allows us to study regularities in such processes. In practice, stochastic modelling finds a huge number of applications in various fields, including finance and economics. In this work, some particular applications of stochastic processes in finance are examined in the conditions of financial crisis. More specifically, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Modified Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) models, which have been previously developed by the authors to predict assets’ prices of four Bulgarian companies, are validated on a time period during the crisis. Estimated rates of return are calculated from the models for one period ahead. The errors are estimated and the models are compared. The predicted return values with each of the two approaches are used to derive optimal risk portfolios based on the Markowitz Model. The resulting portfolios are compared in terms of distribution (weights of the stocks), risk and rate of return.

Contract violations, uncontracted load, and the alternating nature of electricity are the key causes of the frequency irregularity and Unscheduled Interchange (UI) / Deviation Settlement pricing in a restructured organized smart grid. These variations cause the frequency to fluctuate. The topic of frequency variation is discussed in this paper under various market circumstances. To correct frequency discrepancies under various market conditions, a fleet of electrical vehicles (EV) is offered as a distributed energy storage (DES). A bidirectional charger with a PI controller is suggested for the EV bidirectional power transfer. It is suggested to use a fuzzy logic (FL) controller to modify the proportional-integral (PI) controller gains. It has been noted that utilizing such a new approach lowers the UI prices.

We study in this paper the time evolution of stock markets using a statistical physics approach. We consider an ensemble of agents who sell or buy a good according to several factors acting on them: the majority of the neighbors, the market ambiance, the variation of the price and some specific measure applied at a given time. Each agent is represented by a spin having a number of discrete states q or continuous states, describing the tendency of the agent for buying or selling. The market ambiance is represented by a parameter T which plays the role of the temperature in physics: low T corresponds to a calm market, high T to a turbulent one. We show that there is a critical value of T, say T_c, where strong fluctuations between individual states lead to a disordered situation in which there is no majority: the numbers of sellers and buyers are equal, namely the market clearing. The specific measure, by the government or by economic organisms, is parameterized by $H$ applied on the market at the time t₁ and removed at the time t₂. We have used Monte Carlo simulations to study the time evolution of the price as functions of those parameters. In particular we show that the price strongly fluctuates near T_c and there exists a critical value H_c above which the boosting effect remains after H is removed. Our model replicates the stylized facts in finance (time-independent price variation), volatility clustering (time-dependent dynamics) and persistent effect of a temporary shock. The second party of the paper deals with the price variation using a time-dependent mean-field theory. By supposing that the sellers and the buyers belong to two distinct communities with their characteristics different in both intra-group and inter-group interactions, we find the price oscillation with time. Results are shown and discussed.

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore and analyse the dynamic relationship between remittances inflows of Egyptians working abroad and asymmetric oil price shocks. Design: This study uses a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to explain the impulse response functions (IRFs) and the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). The rationale behind using these tools is its ability to examine the dynamic effects of our variables of interest. Findings: The impulse response functions confirmed that remittance inflows have various responses to asymmetric oil price shocks. For instance, inflowing remittances increase in response to positive oil price shocks, while it decreases in response to negative oil price shocks. Also, the results indicate that the responses are significant in the short and medium-run and insignificant in the long run. The magnitude of these responses reaches its peak or trough in the third year. Further, the variance decomposition reveals that oil price decreases are more influential than oil price increases. Originality: This means that remittances inflows in Egypt are pro-cyclical with oil price shocks. That explained by the fact that more than one-half of those remittances sent from GCC countries where real economic growth is very pro-cyclical with the oil prices. This empirical assessment will help policymakers to determine the behaviour of remittances and highlights the impact of different kinds of oil prices shocks on remittances. Unlike the little existing literature, this study is the first study applied the VAR model using a novel dataset spanning 1960-2016.

The paper examines the effects of crude oil price shocks on the Indian economy development and GDP Growth for the period of 2010 till 2018. The present Indian economy growth has been facing the identical issues of escalating the trade disparity and continuing inflation. In this connection, the study focused on the determine relationship between the speculation and crude oil price impact on the Indian economic development activity and GDP growth and the paper investigated the how oil price variations effect on the Indian economy development through different networks, viz. WPI, CP, IIP, GDP, Monetary policy, trade and investment. The paper used methods an GARCH model and description to tool the volatility on both the oil and stock markets and then developed an extension of the vector auto-regression (VAR) models are also applied to determine the oil price shocks effect on macroeconomic indicators and the outcomes of co-integration model propose that crude oil is pro‐cyclical to output, and the paper used VAR investigation to the discrepancy decomposition to capture the linear inter‐dependencies among the variables.

The paper examines the effects of crude oil price shocks on the Indian economy development and GDP Growth for the period of 2010 till 2018. The present Indian economy growth has been facing the identical issues of escalating the trade disparity and continuing inflation. In this connection, the study focused on the determine relationship between the speculation and crude oil price impact on the Indian economic development activity and GDP growth and the paper investigated the how oil price variations effect on the Indian economy development through different networks, viz. WPI, CP, IIP, GDP, Monetary policy, trade and investment. The paper used methods an GARCH model and description to tool the volatility on both the oil and stock markets and then developed an extension of the vector auto-regression (VAR) models are also applied to determine the oil price shocks effect on macroeconomic indicators and the outcomes of co-integration model propose that crude oil is pro‐cyclical to output, and the paper used VAR investigation to the discrepancy decomposition to capture the linear inter‐dependencies among the variables.

Uncertain price movement in staple food commodities puts agrarian economies at risk if not monitored and managed consistently. Hence, an attempt has been made to analyze the price behavior and integration across major wholesale and retail markets for rice and wheat in India. Monthly data (July 2000 to June 2022) on prices viz., wholesale and retail were sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization and analyzed using growth rate, instability index, seasonal price index, Johansen’s test on cointegration, Granger causality test, and impulse response function. Findings indicated strong evidence of price dynamics in the selected markets in terms of spatial and temporal variation, clear-cut seasonality linking to production, and price divergence between wholesale and retail markets. Johansen’s test indicated a strong integration between wholesale and retail markets exhibiting unidirectional-, bidirectional- and no-causality. Impulse response analysis revealed that the selected wheat and rice markets are efficient in terms of ‘price discovery’ which takes place initially in the wholesale market, and then transmitted to the retail market. The study advocates decision-making information to the producers, traders, and consumers who have a potential interest in getting advantage of the price movement. It is concluded that strengthening market intelligence and reducing the distortion in markets will improve the existing overall performance.

The consumer’s acceptability of hamburgers elaborated with the flank of culling cows in which the content of salt or fat had been partially replaced was studied. A mixture of potassium chloride, potassium ferrocyanide and sodium ferrocyanide was used as substitutes for the salt. Oat flakes or a mixture of chia and flax seeds were used as substitutes for the fat. The hamburgers were tasted by 34 consumers. Consumers did not detect significant differences between the control and the rest of the formulations. Neither the gender nor the age of the consumers influenced the sensory appraisal. However, many comments regarding texture failures were recorded. Therefore, the substitution of salt and / or fat in the composition of hamburgers made with the flank of cows is a viable alternative for the commercialization of these pieces of low commercial value as long as the texture of the same is adjusted to resemble it to the control.

Many metrics exist for the evaluation of binary classifiers, all with their particular advantages and shortcomings. Recently an “Efficiency Index” for the evaluation of classifiers has been proposed, based on the consistency, or matching, and contradiction, or mismatching, of outcomes. This metric and its confidence intervals are easy to calculate from base data in a 2x2 contingency table, and values can be qualitatively and semi-quantitatively categorised. For medical tests, in which context the Efficiency Index was originally proposed, it facilitates communication of risk (of correct diagnosis versus misdiagnosis) to both clinicians and patients. Variants of the efficiency index (balanced, unbiased) which take into account disease prevalence and test cut-offs have also been described. The objectives of the current paper were firstly to extend the EI construct to other formulations (balanced level, quality) and secondly to explore the utility of EI and all four of its variants when applied to the dataset of a large prospective test accuracy study of a cognitive screening instrument. This showed that the balanced level, quality, and unbiased formulations of EI are more stringent measures.

Let G[F,Vk, Huv] be the graph with k pockets, where F is a simple graph of order n ≥ 1,Vk= {v1,v2,··· ,vk} is a subset of the vertex set of F and Hvis a simple graph of order m ≥ 2,v is a specified vertex of Hv. Also let G[F,Ek, Huv] be the graph with k edge pockets, where F is a simple graph of order n ≥ 2, Ek= {e1,e2,···ek} is a subset of the edge set of F and Huvis a simple graph of order m ≥ 3, uv is a specified edge of Huvsuch that Huv− u is isomorphic to Huv− v. In this paper, we derive closed-form formulas for resistance distance and Kirchhoff index of G[F,Vk, Hv] and G[F,Ek, Huv] in terms of the resistance distance and Kirchhoff index F, Hv and F, Huv, respectively.

Enteric viruses are the major cause of gastroenteritis and enteric hepatitis worldwide, but in some areas like Saudi Arabia little data is known about their presence in water sources. The available information from clinical samples is not enough to figure their actual prevalence. The aim of this study was to gather information for the first time in Saudi Arabia on the presence of Norovirus (NoV) genogroup GI and GII, hepatitis A virus (HAV) and hepatitis E virus (HEV) in water. For this purpose, thirteen monthly samples were collected in lake Wadi Hanifa and surrounding wells from December 2014 to November 2015. Viruses were detected and quantified by Real-time RT-qPCR. Despite HEV findings were anecdotic, our results highlight interesting behaviors of the other viruses. There was a higher prevalence of noroviruses in Wadi Hanifa samples than in well water samples (46.43% vs12.5% of NoV GI; 66.67% vs8.33% of NoV GII). On the contrary, similar levels of HAV positivity were observed (40.48% in surface water vs 43.06% in well water). Also, a strong influence of flooding events on HAV and NoV GI occurrence was observed in both surface and well water samples, being NoV GII apparently not affected.