It is crucial to forecast the water demand accurately for supplying water efficiently and stably in a water supply system. In particular, accurately forecasting short-term water demand helps in saving energy and reducing operating costs. With the introduction of the Smart Water Grid (SWG) in a water supply system, the amount of water consumption is obtained in real time through an advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) sensor, which can be used for forecasting the short-term water demand. The models widely used for water demand forecasting include the autoregressive integrated moving average, radial basis function-artificial neural network, quantitative multi-model predictor plus, and long short-term memory. However, there is a lack of research on assessing the performance of models and forecasting the short-term water demand by applying the data on the amount of water consumption by purpose and the pipe diameter of an end-use level of the SWG demonstration plant in each demand forecasting model. Therefore, in this study, the short-term water demand was forecasted for each model using the data collected from the AMI, and the performance of each model was assessed. The Smart Water Grid Research Group installed ultrasonic-wave-type AMI sensors in the block 112 located in YeongJong Island, Incheon, and the actual data used for operating the SWG demonstration plant were adopted. The performance of the model was assessed by using the residual, root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) as indices. The water demand forecast was slightly underestimated in models that employed the assessment results based on the RMSE and NRMSE. Furthermore, the forecasting accuracy was low for the NSE due to a large number of negative values; the correlation between the observed and forecasted values of the PCC was not high, and it was difficult to forecast the peak amount of water consumption. Therefore, as the short-term water demand forecasting models using only time and the amount of water consumption have limitations in reflecting the characteristics of consumers, a water supply system can be managed more precisely if other factors (weather, customer behavior, etc.) influencing the water demand are applied.

Electricity demand forecasting plays a significant role in energy markets. Accurate prediction of electricity demand is the key factor to optimize power generation, consumption, saving energy resources, and determining the energy prices. However, integrating energy mix scenarios, including solar and wind power which are highly non-linear and seasonal, into an existing grid increases uncertainty in generation, adds the challenges for precise forecast. To tackle these challenges, state-of-the-art methods and algorithms have been implemented in literature. We have developed Artificial Intelligence (AI) based deep learning models that can effectively handle the information of long time-series data. Based on the pattern of dataset, four different scenarios were developed and two best scenarios were selected for prediction. Dozens of models were developed and tested in deep AI networks. In the first scenario (Scenario1), data for weekdays excluding holidays was taken and in the second scenario (Scenario2) all the data in the basket was taken. Remaining two scenarios, weekends and holidays were tested and neglected because of their high prediction error. To find the optimal configuration, models were trained and tested within a large space of alternatives called hyper-parameters. In this study, an Aritificial Neural Network (ANN) based Feed-forward Neural Network (FNN) showed the minimum prediction error for Scenario1 while a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based Gated Recurrent Network (GRU) showed the minimum prediction error for Scenario2. While comparing the accuracy, the lowest MAPE of 2.47% was obtained from FNN for Scenario1. When evaluating the same testing dataset (non-holidays) of Scenario2, the RNN-GRU model achieved the lowest MAPE of 2.71%. Therefore, we can conclude that grouping of weekdays as Senario1 prepared by excluding the holidays provides better forecasting accuracy compared to the single group approach used in Scenario2, where all the dataset is considered together. However, Scenario2 is equally important to predict the demand for weekends and holidays.

The prediction of hydrological flows (rainfall-depth or rainfall-discharge) is becoming increasingly important in the management of hydrological risks such as floods. In this study, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a state-of-the-art algorithm dedicated to time series, is applied to predict the daily water level of lake Nokoue in Benin. This paper aims to provide an effective and reliable method enable of reproducing the future daily water level of Lake Nokoue, which is influenced by a combination of two phenomena: rainfall and river flow (runoff from the Ouémé River, the Sô River, the Porto-Novo lagoon, and the Atlantic Ocean). Performance analysis based on the forecasting horizon indicates that LSTM can predict the water level of Nokoué Lake up to a forecast horizon of t+10 days. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) agree on a forecast horizon of up to t+3 days. The values of these metrics remain stable for forecast horizons of t+1 days, t+2 days, and t+3 days. The values of R² and NSE are greater than 0.97 during the training and testing phases in the Nokoué Lake basin. Based on the evaluation indices used to assess the model's performance for the appropriate forecast horizon of water level in the Nokoué lake basin, the forecast horizon of t+3 days is chosen for predicting future daily water levels.

The high penetration of distributed energy resources poses significant challenges to the dispatch and operation of power systems. Improving the accuracy of short-term load forecasting (STLF) can optimize grid management, leading to increased economic and social benefits. Currently, some simple AI and hybrid models has issues to deal with and struggle with multivariate dependencies, long-term dependencies, and non-linear relationships. This paper proposes a novel hybrid model for short-term load forecasting (STLF) that integrates multiple AI models with Lasso regression using the stacking technique. The base learners include ANN, XgBoost, LSTM, Stacked LSTM, and Bi-LSTM, while Lasso regression serves as the meta-learner. By considering factors such as temperature, rainfall, and daily electricity prices, the model aims to more accurately reflect real-world conditions and enhance predictive accuracy. Empirical analyses on real-world datasets from Australia and Spain show significant improvements in forecasting accuracy, with a substantial reduction in Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) compared to existing hybrid models and individual AI models. This research highlights the efficiency of the stacking technique in improving STLF accuracy, suggesting potential operational efficiency benefits for the power industry.

In this paper, a systematic literature review is presented, through a survey in the main digital databases, about modelling methods for Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) for hourly electricity demand for residential electricity and to realize the performance evolution and impact of the Artificial Intelligent (AI) in STLF. With these specific objectives, it was developed a conceptual framework on the subject, a systematic review of the literature based on scientific publications with high impact and a bibliometric study directed to the scientific production of AI and STLF. The review of research articles over a 10-year period, which takes place between 2012-2022, uses the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) method. This research resulted in more than 300 articles, available in 4 (four) databases: Web of Science, IEEE Xplore, Scopus and Science Direct. The research was organized around 3 (three) central themes, which were defined through keywords: STLF, Electricity, Residential and their corresponding synonyms. 334 research articles were analyzed and identified the year of publication, journal, author, geography by continent and country and the area of application. Of the 334 documents found in the initial research and after applying the inclusion/exclusion criteria, which allowed delimiting the subject addressed in the topics of interest for analysis, 37 (thirty-seven) documents are in English (25 are journal articles and 12 are conference papers). The results point to a diversity of modelling techniques and associated algorithms. The corresponding performance is measured with different metrics and, therefore, cannot be compared directly. Hence, it should be desirable to have a unified data set together with a set of benchmarks with well-defined metrics for a clear comparison of all the modelling techniques and the corresponding algorithms.

In this work, a novel approach is presented for the multivariate prediction of hydrological variables, employing a specialized type of recurrent neural network (RNN) known as the long-term memory network (LSTM).The central objective is to develop a flood prediction model using data collected from two hydrological stations situated along the Atrato River in the Choc´o Department, Colombia. The interconnected variables of water level, water flow, and water precipitation are analyzed in this model to enhance flood prediction accuracy. The LSTM model, integrated into an RNN structure, is designed to capture the complex dynamics and cross-correlations inherent in these hydrological variables. Validation involves a comparison with linear and nonlinear Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous input (NARX) models, considering factors such as estimation error and computational time. Additionally, the study conducts further analysis for water level prediction under two scenarios: utilizing only outflow and inflow measurements or predicting outflow alongside measuring inflow, with the objective of utilizing the proposed approach as a flood early warning system. † This article is a revised and expanded version of a paper entitled Multivariable NARX based Neural Networks Models for Short-term Water Level Forecasting, which was presented at International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting (ITISE-2023), Gran Canaria, Spain, 12th-14th July, 2023.

With the global objectives of achieving a ‘carbon peak’ and ‘carbon neutrality’, along with the implementation of carbon reduction policies, China’s industrial structure has undergone significant adjustments, resulting in constraints on high-energy consumption and high-emission industries while promoting the rapid growth of green industries. Consequently, these changes have led to an increasingly complex power system structure and presented new challenges for electricity demand forecasting. To address this issue, this study proposes a 24-step multivariate time series short-term load forecasting algorithm model based on KNN data imputation and BiTCN bidirectional temporal convolutional networks combined with BiGRU bidirectional gated recurrent units and attention mechanism. The Kepler adaptive optimization algorithm (KOA) is employed for hyperparameter optimization to effectively enhance prediction accuracy. Furthermore, using real load data from a wind farm in Xinjiang as an example, this paper predicts the electricity load from January 1st to December 30th in 2019. Experimental results demonstrate that our comprehensive short-term load forecasting model exhibits lower prediction errors and superior performance compared to traditional methods, thus holding great value for practical applications.

This study proposes a short- and medium-term electricity consumption prediction algorithm by combining the GRU model suitable for long-term forecasting and the Prophet model suitable for seasonality and event handling. (1) Manufacturing Company B's Electricity consumption data and meteorological data in Naju, Jeollanam-do, South Korea are collected and preprocessed. (2) The preprocessed data proposes the Prophet model in the first step for seasonality and event handling prediction. (3) In the second step, seven multivariate data are experimented with GRU. Specifically, the seven multivariate data consist of six meteorological data and the residuals between the predicted data from the proposed Prophet model in Step 1 and the observed data. These are utilized to predict electricity consumption at 15-minute intervals. (4) Electricity consumption is predicted for short-term (2 days and 7 days) and medium-term (15 days and 30 days) scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the conventional Prophet model by more than 23 times and the modified GRU model by more than 2 times in terms of MAPE.

To enhance the safety of power grid operations, this study proposes a high-precision short-term photovoltaic power prediction method that integrates information from surrounding pho-tovoltaic stations and the Conv-LSTM-ATT model. In the deep learning prediction model, not only is numerical weather prediction (NWP) data from the target photovoltaic station used as input features, but also highly correlated features from nearby photovoltaic stations are incor-porated. The research begins by analyzing the correlation between irradiance and power se-quences, along with distance factors, to calculate a composite similarity index between the target and other regional photovoltaic stations. Stations with high similarity indices are then selected as data sources. Subsequently, Bayesian optimization techniques are employed to find the optimal data fusion ratios. Ultimately, using the selected data, power prediction mod-eling is conducted via the Conv-LSTM-ATT deep neural network. Experimental results con-firm the superiority of the proposed model, which demonstrates higher predictive accuracy compared to three other classical models. The data fusion strategy determined by Bayesian optimization significantly enhances prediction accuracy, reducing the root mean square error (RMSE) of the test set by 20.04%, 28.24%, and 30.94% for three weather types, respectively.

Nowadays, power sector is an area that gather great scientific interest, due to events such as the increase in electricity prices in the wholesale energy market and new investments due to technological development in various sectors. These new challenges have in turn created new needs, such as the accurate prediction of the electrical load of the end users. On the occasion of the new challenges, Artificial Neural Networks approaches have become increasingly popular due to their ability to adopt efficiently to time-series predictions. In this paper, it is presented the development of a model which, through an automated process, will provide an accurate prediction of electrical load for the island of Thira in Greece. Through an automated application, deep learning load forecasting models have been created, such as Multilayer Perceptron, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Network One Dimensional (CNN-1D), CNN-LSTM, Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) and a proposed hybrid model called Convolutional LSTM Encoder-Decoder. The results in terms of prediction accuracy show satisfactory performances for all models, with the proposed hybrid model achieving the best accuracy.

Climate change has become the greatest threat to the survival of world and its ecosystem. With the irreversible impact on the ecosystem, problems like rise in sea level, food-insecurity, natural resources scarcity, seasonal disorders have increased over the past few years. Among these problems, the issue of water scarcity due to the lack of water resources and global warming has plagued several nations. Owing to the rising concerns over water scarcity United Nations (UN) has acknowledged water as a primary resource to the development of societies under the ‘Water Goal’ of the sustainable development goals. As the changing climate and intermittent availability of water resources pose major challenges to forecast demand, especially in countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) which has one of the highest per capita residential water consumption rates in the world. Therefore, the aim of this study is to propose an accurate water demand forecasting technique that incorporates all significant factors to predict the future water demands of the UAE. The forecasting model used is the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), with the factors considered are mean temperature, mean rainfall, relative humidity, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and population growth. The LSTM model predicts the water demand forecasting in the UAE showing that the future demand will decrease from 1821 million m3 in 2018 to 1809.9 million m3 in 2027.

Short-term energy consumption forecasting crucial for the operation of new electrical en-ergy grids, not only due to their own characteristics, but also due to the new elements pre-sent in the energy matrix. Many existing models are limited by their methodologies or by considering only a narrow set of factors influencing energy consumption. This study in-troduces a pipeline for developing an energy forecasting model and evaluates the signifi-cance of factors affecting energy consumption and, consequently, forecast accuracy. The study utilizes a dataset from ISO NE (Independent System Operator New England), span-ning the total electric load of various cities in New England from January 2017 to December 2019. This dataset comprises 23 independent variables, including weather data, economic indicators, and market information. The results outline the steps involved in constructing energy forecast models using time series analysis. By carefully selecting variables and rep-resenting external factors, the study demonstrates the feasibility of generating more accu-rate predictions with reduced computational resources.

The electric power distribution utility is responsible for providing energy to consumers in a continuous and stable way, failures in the electrical power system reduce the reliability indexes of the grid, directly harming its performance. For this reason, there is a need for failure prediction to reestablish power in the shortest possible time. Considering an evaluation of the number of failures over time, this paper proposes to perform a failure prediction during the first year of the pandemic in Brazil (2020) to verify the feasibility of using time series forecasting models for fault prediction. The Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model will be evaluated to obtain a forecast result that can be used by the electric power utility to organize the maintenance teams. The Wavelet transform shows to be promising in improving the predictive ability of the LSTM, making the Wavelet LSTM model suitable for the study at hand. The results show that the proposed approach has better results regarding the evaluation of the error in prediction and has robustness when a statistical analysis is performed.

Commercial buildings are a significant consumer of energy worldwide. Logistics facilities, and specifically warehouses, are a common building type yet under-researched in the demand-side energy forecasting literature. Warehouses have an idiosyncratic profile when compared to other commercial and industrial buildings with a significant reliance on a small number of energy systems. As such, warehouse owners and operators are increasingly entering in to energy performance contracts with energy service companies (ESCOs) to minimise environmental impact, reduce costs, and improve competitiveness. ESCOs and warehouse owners and operators require accurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. This paper explores the performance of three machine learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)), three deep learning models (Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)), and a classical time series model, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for predicting daily energy consumption. The dataset comprises 8,040 records generated over an 11-month period from January to November 2020 from a non-refrigerated logistics facility located in Ireland. The grid search method was used to identify the best configurations for each model. The proposed XGBoost models outperform other models for both very short load forecasting (VSTLF) and short term load forecasting (STLF); the ARIMA model performed the worst.

Accurate forecasting of wind power generation plays a key role in improving the operation and management of a power system network and thereby its reliability and security. However, predicting wind power is complex due to the existence of high non-linearity in wind speed that eventually relies on prevailing weather conditions. In this paper, a novel hybrid deep learning model is proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of very short-term wind power generation for the Bodangora Wind Farm located in New South Wales, Australia. The hybrid model consists of convolutional layers, gated recurrent unit (GRU) layers and a fully connected neural network. The convolutional layers have the ability to automatically learn complex features from raw data while the GRU layers are capable of directly learning multiple parallel sequences of input data. The data sets of five-minute intervals from the wind farm are used in case studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model against other advanced existing models, including long short-term memory (LSTM), GRU, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM), which are tuned to optimise outcome. It is observed that the hybrid deep learning model exhibits superior performance over other forecasting models to improve the accuracy of wind power forecasting, numerically, up to 1.59 per cent in mean absolute error, 3.73 per cent in root mean square error and 8.13 per cent in mean absolute percentage error.

A reinforcement learning algorithm is proposed to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting (STLF) in this article. The proposed model integrates radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), support vector regression (SVR), and adaptive annealing learning algorithm (AALA). In the proposed methodology, firstly, the initial structure of RBFNN is determined by using SVR. Then, an AALA with time-varying learning rates is used to optimize the initial parameters of SVR-RBFNN (AALA-SVR-RBFNN). In order to overcome the stagnation for searching optimal RBFNN, a particle swarm optimization (PSO) is applied to simultaneously find promising learning rates in AALA. Finally, the short-term load demands are predicted by using the optimal RBFNN. The performance of the proposed methodology is verified on the actual load dataset from Taiwan Power Company (TPC). Simulation results reveal that the proposed AALA-SVR-RBFNN can achieve a better load forecasting precision as compared to various RBFNNs.

The influence of short term water absorption on the mechanical properties of halloysite nanotubes-multi layer graphene reinforced polyester hybrid nanocomposites has been investigated. The addition of nano-fillers significantly increased the flexural strength; tensile strength and impact strength in dry and wet conditions. After short term water exposure; the maximum microhardness; tensile; flexural and impact toughness values were observed at 0.1 wt% MLG. The microhardness increased up to 50.3%; tensile strength increased up to 40% and flexural strength increased up to 44%. Compared to dry samples; the fracture toughness and surface roughness of all types of produced nanocomposites were increased that may be attributed to plasticization effect. Scanning electron microscopy revealed that the main failure mechanism is caused by the weakening of nano-filler-matrix interface induced by water absorption. It was further observed that synergistic effects were not effective at concentration of 0.1 wt% to produce considerable improvement in mechanical properties of produced hybrid nanocomposites.

Recognition, decoding and tracking of vortex patterns is of increasing importance in many fields reaching from astronomical observation of distant galaxies to turbulence phenomena in liquids or gases. Currently, coherent light beams with orbital angular momentum (OAM) are of particular interest for optical communication, metrology, micro-machining or particle manipulation. One common task is to identify characteristic spiral patterns in pixelated intensity maps at real-world signal-to-noise ratios. Recently, Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) was applied to the quantitative analysis of spiral interference patterns of OAM beams. Our study considers this approach in more detail. It is demonstrated that specific information can be extracted by combining conformal mapping by polar transform with determining one- or two-dimensional angular frequency spectra either in spatially fixed or scanning mode. Results of proof-of-principle experiments are presented.

Accurately predicting electrical signals of three-phase Direct Torque Control (DTC) induction motors is crucial for optimal motor performance and effective condition monitoring. However, multiple DTC motors’ complexity and operating conditions’ variations pose challenges for traditional prediction methods. To overcome these challenges, we propose an innovative approach that combines Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to transform electrical motor simulation data and a Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) network to forecast processed motor data. By transforming the DTC induction motor signals from the time domain to the frequency domain, we enhance the capability of learning models to capture subtle differences and generate various input features. The Bi-LSTM model effectively captures both forward and backward dependencies in time series data, enabling accurate prediction of electrical signals. We evaluate the proposed approach using our simulated dataset and compare the proposed method to a state-of-the-art model, the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), demonstrating its effectiveness in improving the accuracy and reliability of induction motor signals forecasting. The finding provides valuable insights for advancing motor control and operation in industrial applications.

The application of non-uniform spiral gratings to control structure, topological parameters and propagation of orbital angular momentum (OAM) beams was studied experimentally with coherent near-infrared light. Adapted digital spiral grating structures were programmed into the phase map of a high-resolution liquid-crystal-on-silicon spatial light modulator (LCoS-SLM). It is shown that characteristic spatio-spectral anomalies related to Gouy phase shift can be used as pointers to quantify rotational beam properties. Depending on sign and gradient of spatially variable periods of chirped spiral gratings (CSG), variations of rotation angle and angular velocity as a function of propagation distance were measured. Propagation-dependent self-torque is introduced in analogy to known local self-torque phenomena of OAM beams as obtained by the superposition of temporally chirped or phase modulated wavepackets.

As a vital component of the terrestrial ecosystem, grassland accounts for one-third of the global vegetation system. Grassland degradation has been exacerbated due to extreme overgrazing in China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR). While conservation was carried out as the Ecological Subsidy and Award Program (ESAP) to mitigate grassland degradation, little is known about its effectiveness in improving the biophysical conditions of grassland. This paper integrates the conceptual frameworks of total socio-environmental systems to assess how ecological systems respond to ESAP, investigate spatial heterogeneity of ESAP, and explore the meddling effects of socio-environmental interactions on ESAP. We integrate ecological, climate, and socioeconomic data and developed several hierarchical linear mixed models (HLMM) to investigate how these factors interact with ESAP in IMAR. Our findings prove that the above-ground biomass between 2011 and 2015 responds significantly to variations in socioeconomic conditions and ecological communities. Available land resources, hospital and medical facilities, and net farmer and herdsman income are the most critical factors contributing to grassland productivity. Primary industries like mining, total consumer retail value, farming, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery productions, and GDP are the most damaging factors affecting biomass. Our study recommends a regionally or locally tailored ecological recovery policy, instead of a generalized one, in the future effort to conserve grassland.

Accurately predicting the power of solar power generation can greatly reduce the impact of the randomness and volatility of power generation on the stability of the power grid system, which is beneficial for the balanced operation and optimized dispatch of the power grid system, and reduces operating costs. Solar PV power generation depends on weather conditions, which are prone to large fluctuations under different weather conditions. Its power generation is characterized by randomness, volatility and intermittency. Recently, the demand for further investigation and effective use on the uncertainty of short-term solar PV power generation prediction has been getting increasing attention in many application of renewable energy sources. In order to improve the predictive accuracy of output power of solar PV power generation and develop a precise predictive model, the authors worked predictive algorithms for the output power of a solar PV power generation system. Moreover, since short-term solar PV power forecasting is one of the important aspects for optimizing the operation and control of renewable energy systems and electricity markets, this review focuses on the predictive models of solar PV power generation, which can be verified in the daily planning and operation of a smart grid system. In addition, the predictive methods in the reviewed literature are classified according to the input data source used for accurate predictive models, and the case studies and examples proposed are analyzed in detail. The contributions, advantages and disadvantages of the predictive probabilistic methods are compared. Finally, the future studies of short-term solar PV power forecasting is proposed.

Due to the intermittency and fluctuation of photovoltaic (PV) output power, a high proportion of grid-connected PV power generation systems has a significant impact on power systems. Accurate PV power forecasting can alleviate the uncertainty of the PV power and is of great significance for the stable operation and scheduling of the power systems. Therefore, in this study, a feature rise-dimensional (FRD) two-layer ensemble learning (TLEL) model for short-term PV power deterministic forecasting and probability forecasting is proposed. First， based on the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), CatBoost, and Long-short-term memory (LSTM) models, a TLEL model is constructed utilizing the ensemble learning algorithm. Meanwhile, the FRD method is introduced to construct the FRD-XGBoost-LSTM (R-XGBL), FRD-RF-LSTM(R-RFL), and FRD- CatBoost - LSTM (R-CatBL) models. Subsequently, the above models are combined to construct the FRD-TLEL model for deterministic forecasting, and perform probability interval forecasting based on quantile regression(QR). Finally, the performance of the proposed model is demonstrated with a real-world dataset. By comparing with other models, the proposed model displays better forecasting accuracy for deterministic forecasting and reliable forecasting intervals for probability forecasting, and good generalization ability in the datasets of different seasons and weather types.

Mammarenavirus Wenzhouense (WENV) is broadly distributed in Asia, while the he dynamics process of WENV infection remains unclear. A field derived strain of WENV was used to inoculate Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats by intramuscular injection, the process of virus infection was de-tected by controlling time for 28 days. Viral RNA became detectable in the blood at 3 d pi, and remained detectable for about 12 d. In most organ tissues, viral RNA peaked at 7 d pi, then began to decline by 14 d, however remained detectable in intestine and brain tissues at 21 and 28 d pi. Virus shedding had been detected from fecal samples for 5 days from 6 to 11 d pi using qRT-PCR, and was recovered from feces collected at 8 d pi. Horizontal contact infection occurred among cage-mates at 14 and 21 d pi. Antibodies against the nucleocapsid were detected at 5 dpi, next increased and persisted until the end of experiment. The results enabled to discriminate the kinetic of viremic response, virus shedding in feces and horizontal transmission, as well as the potential sites for WENV replication or maintenance of the virus in nature.

Accurate demand forecasting plays a critical role in most furniture businesses’ operational, tactical, and strategic decisions, as the demand in the furniture business is considered seasonal and becomes more complex in crises. In this work, a neural network model using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method was developed to forecast the demand for specific product groups. LSTM is a leading deep learning model for time series prediction, particularly seasonal, multi-item, and non-linear situations. The developed model was used to predict the demand based on old data before the Covid-19 pandemic and recent data of the first months of the pandemic as a fast response to the crisis. In addition, a comparison study was conducted between the developed model and the traditional planning inventory used by furniture businesses that provided us with the data. The results showed that the Covid-19 pandemic significantly impacted demand forecasting. Also, the fast response to Covid-19 pandemic has slightly increased the model performance. Finally, the comparison study demonstrated that our model is robust and better than the traditional demand forecasting method. Therefore, the developed model may help the business improve inventory and production planning to create a more flexible supply chain.

A block-diagonal fuzzy neural network for short-term load forecasting is proposed. DBD-FELF consists of fuzzy rules with consequent parts that are neural networks with internal recurrence. These networks have a hidden layer which consists of pairs of neurons with feedback connections between them. The overall fuzzy model partitions the input space in partially overlapping fuzzy regions, where the recurrent neural networks of the respective rules operate. The partition of the input space and determination of the fuzzy rule base is performed by use of Fuzzy C-Means clustering algorithm and the RENNCOM constrained optimization method is applied for consequent parameter tuning. The electric load time-series of the Greek power system is examined, and hourly-based forecasting for the whole year is performed. The performance of DBD-FELF is tested via extensive experimental analysis and the results are promising, since an average percentage error of 1.18% is attained, along with an average yearly absolute error of 76.2 MW. Moreover, DBD-FELF is compared with Deep Learning, fuzzy and neurofuzzy rivals, such that its particular attributes are highlighted.

In this paper we develop a forecasting algorithm for recurrent patterns in consumer demand. We study this problem in two different settings: pull and push models. We discuss several features of the algorithm concerning sampling, periodic approximation, denoising and forecasting.

The European Union Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC; WFD) aims to achieve a good ecological and chemical status of all bodies of surface water by 2027. The development of an integrated guidance on surface water chemical monitoring (e.g. WFD Guidance Document No. 7/19) has been transferred into national German law (Ordinance for the Protection of Surface Waters, OGewV). For the majority of compounds, this act requires a monthly sampling frequency to assess the chemical water quality status of a surface water body. To evaluate the representativeness of the sampling strategy under the OGewV, high-frequency online monitoring data is investigated under different sampling scenarios and compared with current, monthly grab sampling strategy. About 23 million data points were analyzed for this study, three chemical parameters (dissolved oxygen, nitrate-nitrogen, chloride concentration) and discharge data were selected from four catchment of different sizes ranging from 51391 km² to 84 km² (Elbe, Vereinigte Mulde, Neiße and two stations at Lockwitzbach). In this paper we proposed short-term online-monitoring (STOM) as a sampling alternative. STOM considers the placement of online sensors over a limited duration and return interval. In general we: (I) compare the results of conventional grab sampling with STOM, (II) investigate the different performance of STOM and grab sampling using discharge data as proxy for analyzing event-mobilized pollutants and (III) investigate the related uncertainties and costs of both sampling methods. Results show, that STOM outperforms grab sampling for parameters where minimum/maximum concentrations are required by law as the probability to catch a single extreme value is higher with STOM. Furthermore, parameters showing a pronounced diurnal pattern, like dissolved oxygen, are also captured considerably better. The performance of STOM showed no substantial improvements for parameters with small concentration variability, as nitrogen-nitrate The analysis of discharge events as a proxy parameter for event-mobilized pollutants proved that the probability of capturing samples during events is significantly increased by STOM.

Developing short-term forecasting model for global atmospheric temperature and wind in the near space is crucial for understanding atmospheric dynamics and supporting human activities in this region. While numerical models have been extensively developed, deep learning techniques have recently shown promise in improving atmospheric forecasting accuracy. In this study, convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) and convolutional gated recurrent unit (ConvGRU) neural networks were applied to build for short-term global-scale forecasting model of atmospheric temperature and wind in the `near space based on the MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset from 2010-2022. The model results showed that the ConvGRU model outperforms the ConvLSTM model in the short-term forecast results. The ConvGRU model achieved a root mean square error in the first three hours of approximately 1.8 K for temperature predictions, and errors of 4.2 m/s and 3.8 m/s for eastward and northward wind predictions, respectively.

The power system has rapidly grown and expanded over the past decades and has been experiencing major changes and challenges. The increase in energy demand and the modern advancements in the smart grid, such as solar and wind energies and electric vehicles, have led to complexity and complications for utilities. A further layer of complexity and difficulty was added by the rapid expansion of behind-the-meter (BTM) photovoltaic (PV) systems with various designs and characteristic features. The rapid increase and the invisible solar power (BTM) have led to fluctuations in power grid stability and reliability and to inefficiency. Accurate forecasting of load generation will help to assure optimal planning, minimize the negative effects of the PV systems, and minimize the operational and maintenance costs. The authors propose a solution that uses combinations of K-means clustering with neural network machine learning models, AMI real-world PV load generation, and weather data to forecast the generation load at customer locations to achieve a 2.49% error between actual and predicted generation load.

This study presents a novel approach for predicting hierarchical short time series. In this article, our objective was to formulate long-term forecasts for household natural gas consumption by considering the hierarchical structure of territorial units within a country's administrative divisions. For this purpose, we utilized natural gas consumption data from Poland. The length of the time series was an important determinant of the data set. We contrast global techniques, which employ a uniform method across all time series, with local methods that fit a distinct method for each time series. Furthermore, we compare the conventional statistical approach with a machine learning (ML) approach. Based on our analyses, we devised forecasting methods for short time series that exhibit exceptional performance. We have demonstrated that global models provide better forecasts than local models. Among ML models, neural networks yielded the best results, with the MLP network achieving comparable performance to the LSTM network while requiring significantly less computational time.

To minimise environmental impact, avoid regulatory penalties, and improve competitiveness, energy-intensive manufacturing firms require accurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. Deep learning is widely touted as a superior analytical technique to traditional artificial neural networks, machine learning, and other classical time series models due to its high dimensionality and problem solving capabilities. Despite this, research on its application in demand-side energy forecasting is limited. We compare two benchmarks (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and an existing manual technique used at the case site) against three deep learning models (simple Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)) and three machine learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVM), Random Forest, and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN)) for short term load forecasting (STLF) using data from a Brazilian thermoplastic resin manufacturing plant. We use the grid search method to identify the best configurations for each model, and then use Diebold-Mariano testing to confirm the results. Results suggests that the legacy approach used at the case site is the worst performing, and that the GRU model outperformed all other models tested.

This study introduces a comparative analysis of two deep learning (multilayer perceptron neural networks (MLP-NN) and the long short term memory networks (LSTMN)) models for transit travel time prediction. The two models were trained and tested using one-year worth of data for a bus route in Blacksburg, Virginia. In this study, the travel time was predicted between each two successive stations to all the model to be extended to include bus dwell times. Additionally, two additional models were developed for each category (MLP of LSTM): one for only segments including controlled intersections (controlled segments) and another for segments with no control devices along them (uncontrolled segments). The results show that the LSTM models outperform the MLP models with a RMSE of 17.69 sec compared to 18.81 sec. When splitting the data into controlled and uncontrolled segments, the RMSE values reduced to 17.33 sec for the controlled segments and 4.28 sec for the uncontrolled segments when applying the LSTM model. Whereas, the RMSE values were 19.39 sec for the controlled segments and 4.67 sec for the uncontrolled segments when applying the MLP model. These results demonstrate that the uncertainty in traffic conditions introduced by traffic control devices has a significant impact on travel time predictions. Nonetheless, the results demonstrate that the LSTMN is a promising tool that can has the ability to account for the temporal correlation within the data. The developed models are also promising tools for reasonable travel time predictions in transit applications.

PM-Gati-Shakti Initiative, integration of ministries, including railways, ports, waterways, logistic infrastructure, mass transport, airports, and roads. Aimed at enhancing connectivity and bolstering the competitiveness of Indian businesses, the initiative focuses on six pivotal pillars known as "Connectivity for Productivity": comprehensiveness, prioritization, optimization, synchronization, analytical, and dynamic. In this study, we explore the application of these pillars to address the problem of "Maximum Demand Forecasting in Delhi." Electricity forecasting plays a very significant role in the power grid as it is required to maintain a balance between supply and load demand at all times, to provide a quality electricity supply, for Financial planning, generation reserve, and many more. Forecasting helps not only in Production Planning but also in Scheduling like Import / Export which is very often in India and mostly required by the rural areas and North Eastern Regions of India. As Electrical Forecasting includes many factors which cannot be detected by the models out there, We use Classical Forecasting Techniques to extract the seasonal patterns from the daily data of Maximum Demand for the Union Territory Delhi. This research contributes to the power supply industry by helping to reduce the occurrence of disasters such as blackouts, power cuts, and increased tariffs imposed by regulatory commissions. The forecasting techniques can also help in reducing OD and UD of Power for different regions. We use the Data provided by a department from the Ministry of Power and use different forecast models including Seasonal forecasts for daily data.

The primary attraction of IaaS is providing elastic resources on demand. It becomes imperative that IaaS-users have an effective methodology for learning what resources they require, how many resources and for how long they need. However, the heterogeneity of resources, the diversity resource demands of different cloud applications and the variation of application-user behaviors pose IaaS-users big challenge. In this paper, we purpose a unified resource demand forecasting model suiting for different applications, various resources and diverse time-varying workload patterns. With the model, taking input from parameterized applications, resources and workload scenarios, the corresponding resources demands during any time interval can be deduced as output. The experiments configure concrete functions and parameters to help understanding the above model.

Copper demand for a country's copper industry has a greater pull effect. China's copper consumption in 2015 has accounted for 50% of the world. The scientific forecast of China's copper demands trend is also an important basis for analyzing its future environmental impact. This paper assumes that China's economy will be developing high, medium and low scenarios, and forecasts economic and social indicators such as total GDP, population and per capita GDP in China from 2016 to 2030. Then, predicted the demand of copper resources in China from 2016 to 2030 by the combination of system dynamics model, vector autoregressive moving average model and inverted U-type empirical model. The results show that: (1) in 2020, 2025 and 2030, China's refined copper demand will be 13 Mt, 15 Mt and 15.5 Mt. (2) China's copper demand growth slowed down significantly from 2016-2030. (3) 2025-2030, China's copper resource demand is stable, into the platform of demand growth, the highest peak value in 2027 will be 15.5 Mt. (4) 2030 years later, China's copper resource demand will enter a slow decline.

In this short note, the described step-by-step derivations of the industrial energy demand function from the production function framework and provided researchers with two specifications. Then we applied these theoretical specifications to the time series data as empirical analysis. We concluded that theories should be considered at the beginning of the empirical analyses but the data also should be allowed to speak freely. Hence, the main suggestion of this short note is that it would be a better strategy to consider the combination of theory-driven and data-driven approaches in the empirical analyses.

Persistent land subsidence or uplift can cause serious latent hazards to urban infrastructure. To thoroughly investigate the causes and impacts of land surface deformation, this study examines the case of Wuxi City, focusing on the land fluctuation patterns in the region following the enforcement of the groundwater abstraction prohibition policy in 2005. This research utilizes the PS-InSAR technique to quantify land surface deformations in the Wuxi region from November 2015 to June 2023 and analyzes 100 SAR images to obtain comprehensive spatiotemporal evolution data of the land surface. Furthermore, this study conducts an in-depth analysis of the effects of various factors, including groundwater, precipitation, and soil geology, on the characteristics of land surface deformation. It pioneers the application of the GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) model to analyze the time-series displacement in the study area and innovatively introduces the "amplitude factor" index to assess land surface fluctuations. This study investigates the recent land surface deformation patterns and mechanisms in Wuxi City. By integrating the "amplitude factor", it provides a scientific foundation for future urban development and disaster mitigation strategies in Wuxi City, offering valuable insights for related research.

A new model for international bed numbers is applied to local area populations for English Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) where the Age Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR) is used as a measure of population health and hence for total occupied hospital bed demand (elective plus emergency admission types, including acute, rehabilitation, mental health, and maternity), rather than simple bed availability. A 100-unit increase in ASMR (European Standard population) leads to a 15.3 – 30.7 (feasible range) unit increase in occupied beds per 1,000 deaths. ASMR shows why the Australian states of the Northern Territory and Tasmania have an intrinsic higher bed demand than the other states – although in both cases the bed planning methodologies failed to indicate this need and both states show a large bed deficit. Due to the high volatility in bed demand the average bed demand for 2019 was determined by a linear trend using data for 2014/15 to 2019/20 — as the pre-COVID-19 baseline. The slope of the relationship between occupied beds per 1,000 deaths and deaths per 1,000 population shows a power law function. As is to be expected there is scatter around the trend line which will partly arise from uncertainty in the expected occupied beds in 2019, fluctuations in both ASMR and deaths per 1,000 population from one year to another, changes in the number of persons on the elective, outpatient and diagnostic waiting lists, and local area variation in births and consequently upon maternity, neonatal and pediatric bed demand. Additional variation in bed demand will arise from differences in the level of funding for social care, especially elderly care, and to a lesser extent upon patients using private health care, and charitable hospices for palliative care. However, after including the change in bed demand arising from ASMR the model is sufficiently accurate to identify gross differences in bed demand as a prelude to further investigation. The model requires further extension to cover specialty-level demand, and perhaps segregation between elective and emergency types of inpatient demand. A method for benchmarking the whole hospital’s average bed occupancy is given which enables them to run at optimum efficiency and safety. Using this method English hospitals can be shown to operate at highly disruptive and unsafe levels of bed occupancy leading to deleterious ‘turn-away’. Turn-away implies bed unavailability for the next arriving patient. The problems associated with crafting effective bed planning are illustrated using the English NHS as an example.

In this paper we compare the effects of forecasting demand using individual (disaggregated) components versus first aggregating the components either fully or into several clusters. Demand streams are assumed to follow autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. Using individual demand streams will always lead to a superior forecast compared to any aggregates, however we show that if several aggregated clusters are formed in a structured manner then these subaggregated clusters will lead to a forecast with minimal increase in mean-squared forecast error. We show this result based on theoretical MSFE obtained directly from the models generating the clusters as well as estimated MSFE obtained directly from simulated demand observations. We suggest a pivot-algorithm, that we call Pivot Clustering, to create these clusters. We also provide theoretical results to investigate sub-aggregation, including for special cases such as, aggregating MA(1) streams and ARMA streams with similar or same parameters.

The intense motion of a ship can greatly impacts the comfort of crew members and the safety of the vessel. Therefore, accurately estimating and predicting ship attitudes has become an important issue. This paper introduces the latest development in functional deep learning model called DeepOnet. It takes wave height as input and ship motion as output, using a cause-to-result prediction approach. The modeling data used in this study is sourced from publicly available experimental data from the Iowa Institute of Hydraulic Research. Firstly, parameters system tuning was conducted for the neural network's hyperparameters to determine the appropriate combination of parameters. Secondly, the DeepOnet model for wave height and multi-degree-of-freedom motion was established, and the influence of increasing time steps on prediction accuracy was examined. Finally, a comparison was made between the DeepOnet model and the classical time series model LSTM. It was found that the DeepOnet model had a 10-fold improvement in accuracy for roll and heave attitudes. Moreover, as the forecast duration increased, the advantage of DeepOnet showed a trend of strengthening. As a functional prediction model, DeepOnet provides a new promising tool for very short-term prediction of ship motion.

Cold chain logistics of Agricultural Products demand forecasting can provide the scientific basis for the country to formulate logistics strategy, which further promotes the development of social economy and the improvement of living standards in China. In this paper, a new mathematical combined model is proposed to Agricultural Products Demand. Shandong, one of a China’s province, serves as the main producer and distributor of agricultural products. Based on the index system created from multiple related factors influencing cold chain logistics demand of agricultural products in Shandong, this paper employs principal component analysis to reduce the dimension of various indexes and predicts principal components with time series. Thereafter, multiple linear regression model and neural network model were constructed to forecast the cold chain logistics demand of agricultural products in Shandong, and their combined forecast models were compared. What's more, the paper provides insight for reference and decision-making concerning the development of cold chain logistics industry of agricultural products in Shandong province.

Hybrid forecasting methods have emerged as a solution surpassing the limitations of both statistical and deep learning approaches. While the first emphasize the significance of variables, they often produce worse forecasting results when compared to newer techniques. In contrast, deep learning models remain enigmatic "black boxes" in terms of interpretability, although achieving better results in forecasting. This article introduces the Comprehensive Cross-Correlation and Lagged Linear Regression Deep Learning (CCLR-DL) framework, designed to harness the best of both approaches, enhancing forecasting accuracy while retaining model interpretability through a feature selection process. CCLR-DL blens cross-correlation analysis, lagged multiple linear regression and granger's causality procedures with deep learning architectures based on LSTM. In a practical demonstration, CCLR-DL was applied to a real database of clinical visits associated to diagnoses in Catalonia, Spain (tracking a population of 6.3 million patients during 10 years). Predicting visits enables the healthcare managers to be ready for future demand shifts. Results demonstrate a consistent and substantial improvement over standalone statistical and deep learning methods when predicting healthcare demand. This hybrid approach not only showcases its efficacy but also offers a promising solution to the challenge of balancing predictive accuracy with model explicability. In this context, this work aims to design and validate a method for feature selection and forecasting of multivariate high dimensional time series datasets not only to improve prediction accuracy but also to model transparency by identifying a subset of variables that improve predictions and G-cause the target variable.

Water deficit (drought) is still one of the most important stress factors affecting not only yields, but also production quality. Breeders are focusing on breeding cultivars and crop lines that are more resistant to water shortages. In addition to breeding, for example, for the size of the roots and changes in the color of the leaves, focus on changing the morphotype i.e. long chaff, multirowed ear. It is predicted that wheat genotypes with a morphotype change should be more drought tolerant. Therefore, our research focused on the study of changes in the physiological parameters of wheat (cv. ´Bohemia´) with a changed morphotype (genotypes ´284-17´ [long chaff] and genotype ´29-17´ [multirowed ear]) in relation to exposure to drought. Pigment content, photosynthesis and transpiration rate, water potential were measured in plants irrigated and affected by water deficit. Water deficit was shown to have a statistically significant effect on transpiration rate, photosynthetic rate, water potential and total chlorophyll content. Furthermore, the influence of the genotype on the observed parameters and on the effect of water deficit was demonstrated. Due to the fact that cv. ´Bohemia´, increases during such periods of transpiration, so for this reason it is not suitable for dry areas. Genotype ́29-17 ́ appears promising with respect to drought resistance.

Multivariate predictive analysis of the Stream-Water (SW) parameters (discharge, water level, temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, turbidity, and specific conductance) is a pivotal task in the field of water resource management during the era of rapid climate change. The highly dynamic and evolving nature of the meteorological and climatic features have a significant impact on the temporal distribution of the SW variables in recent days making the SW variables forecasting even more complicated for diversified water-related issues. To predict the SW variables, various physics-based numerical models are used using numerous hydrologic parameters. Extensive lab-based investigation and calibration are required to reduce the uncertainty involved in those parameters. However, in the age of data-informed analysis and prediction, several deep learning algorithms showed satisfactory performance in dealing with sequential data. In this research, a comprehensive Explorative Data Analysis (EDA) and feature engineering were performed to prepare the dataset to obtain the best performance of the predictive model. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network regression model is trained using over several years of daily data to predict the SW variables up to one week ahead of time (lead time) with satisfactory performance. The performance of the proposed model is found highly adequate through the comparison of the predicted data with the observed data, visualization of the distribution of the errors, and a set of error matrices. Higher performance is achieved through the increase in the number of epochs and hyperparameter tuning. This model can be transferred to other locations with proper feature engineering and optimization to perform univariate predictive analysis and potentially be used to perform real-time SW variables prediction.

The Eastern Kunlun Fault Zone (EKFZ) is located in a seismic blank area. This study investigates the hydrogeochemical characteristics of varied-temperature springs in the EKFZ to understand the relationship between fractures, fluids and earthquakes. It aids in establishing their induction mechanisms and assists in monitoring the earthquake precursors of the EKFZ. In this study, the main elements, trace elements, hydrogen and oxygen isotopes and strontium isotopes of 23 varied-temperature springs in the EKFZ were analyzed. The results reveal the source of groundwater recharge, hydrochemical types, mineral saturation, and for a select few springs indicative of geothermal activity, collected geothermal reservoir temperatures. The study also explores the relationship between earthquakes and springs, identifying sensitive chemical indicators. Based on continuous monitoring at Maqu Station, we found that before the occurrence of the Maerkang Ms 6.0 earthquake, the concentration of Cl− rose by 2.9 times, and 46 days before the Gande earthquake (Ms = 4.7), the concentrations of Na+ and SO42− significantly increased. Finally, a conceptual model of the hydrogeochemistry of springs is presented to describe the groundwater circulation in the study area. This research is of great significance for the analysis of fluid geochemistry in this area and for assessing the seismic hazards of the EKFZ.

Evapotranspiration is a critical component of the hydrological cycle, and it has a decisive impact on the ecosystem balance in arid and semi-arid regions. The Yinchuan Plain, located in the Gobi of Northwest China, has a strong surface ET. In order to assess the ET pattern in this region, we obtained the ETa of Yinchuan Plain between 1987 and 2020 using the GEE platform. We employed the Surface Energy Balance Model (SEBAL), specifically geeSEBAL, to analyze the change pattern of ET over different seasons, years, and land types. The results show that: ① In spring, the daily ETa of the Yinchuan Plain is highest in the central lake wetland area, with a maximum value of 4.32 mm day-1. In summer, it is concentrated around the croplands and water bodies, with a maximum value of 6.90 mm day-1; In Autumn and winter, it is mainly concentrated around the water bodies and impervious areas, with maximum values of 3.93 and 1.56 mm day-1, respectively. ② From 1987 to 2020, the ET of the Yinchuan Plain showed an obvious upward and downward trend in some areas with significant land use changes, but the overall ET of the region remained relatively stable without dramatic fluctuations. ③ The evapotranspiration of different underlying land use types in the Yinchuan Plain region is as follows: water body>cultivated land>impervious>grassland>bare land. Our results showed that geeSEBAL is highly applicable in the Yinchuan Plain area. It allows for the accurate and detailed inversion of ET in the study area, which facilitates the study of regional hydrological cycle and water governance.

The Upper Hunter Valley is a major coal mining area in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Due to the ongoing increase of mining activities, PM10 (air-borne particle with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 micrometres) pollution has become a major air quality concern in local communities. The early part of this study identified two air quality subregions in the valley. This paper aims to provide a holistic summarisation of the relationships between elevated PM10 pollution in two subregions and the local- and synoptic-scale meteorological conditions for spring and summer, when PM10 pollution is relatively high. A catalogue of twelve synoptic types and a set of six local meteorological patterns have been quantitatively derived and linked to each other using the self-organising map (SOM) technique. The complex meteorology-air pollution relationships have been visualised/interpretated on the SOM planes for two representative locations. It was found that the influence of local meteorological patterns differed significantly for mean PM10 levels vs the occurrence of elevated pollution events and between air quality subregions. In contrast, synoptic types showed generally similar relationships with mean vs elevated PM10 pollution in the valley. Two local meteorological patterns, the hot-dry-northwesterly wind conditions and the hot-dry-calm conditions, were found most PM10 pollution conducive in the valley when combined with a set of synoptic counterparts. These synoptic types are featured with the influence of eastward migrating continental high pressure system and westerly troughs, or a ridge extending northwest towards coastal northern NSW or southern Queensland from the Tasman Sea. The method and results can be used in air quality research for other locations of NSW, or similar regions elsewhere.

This paper investigates the use of deep learning techniques to perform energy demand forecasting. Specifically, the authors have adapted a deep neural network originally thought for image classification and composed of a convolutional neural network (CNN) followed by a multilayered fully connected artificial neural network (ANN). The convolutional part of the network was fed with a grid of temperature forecasting data distributed in the area of interest in order to extract a featured temperature. The subsequent ANN is then fed with this calculated temperature along with other data related to the timing of the forecast. The proposed structure was first trained and then used in a real setting aimed to provide the French energy demand forecast using ARPEGE forecasting weather data. The results show that the performance of this approach is in the line of the performance provided by the reference RTE subscription-based service, which opens the possibility to obtain high accuracy forecasting using widely accessible deep learning techniques through open-source machine learning platforms.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by impairments in social interaction and communication, anxiety, hyperactivity, and restricted interest for specific subjects. In addition to the genetic factors, multiple environmental factors have been related to the development of ASD. Animal models can serve as crucial tools for understanding the complexity of ASD and identifying potential therapeutic strategies. In this study, a chemical model of ASD has been developed in zebrafish by exposing embryos to valproic acid (VPA) from 4 to 48 hours post-fertilization. After the exposure, embryos were transferred to fish water and the effects on behavior and neurotransmitters profile were analyzed at both larval and adult stages. Larvae from VPA-treated embryos showed hyperactivity and decreased visual and vibrational escape responses, as well as an altered neurotransmitters profile, with increased glutamate and decreased acetylcholine and norepinephrine levels. Adults from VPA-treated embryos exhibited impaired social behavior characterized by larger shoal sizes and a decreased interest for their conspecifics. Neurotransmitter analysis revealed a significant decrease in dopamine and GABA levels in the brain. These results support the interest of this model in the study of ASD.

Deep underground laboratories offer advantages for conducting high-precision observations of weak geophysical signals, benefitting from a low background noise level. It is both valuable and feasible to enhance strong, noisy ground electromagnetic (EM) field data using synchronously recorded underground EM signals, which typically exhibit a high signal-to-noise ratio. In this study, we propose an EM field reconstruction method employing a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network with referenced deep underground EM observations. Initially, a deep learning model was developed to capture the time-varying features of underground multi-component EM fields using the LSTM recurrent neural network. Subsequently, this model was applied to process synchronously observed strong, noisy data from other conventional observation systems, such as those at surface, to achieve noise suppression through signal reconstructions. Both theoretical analysis and practical observational data suggest that the proposed method effectively suppresses noise and reconstructs clean EM signals. This method is efficient and time-saving, representing an effective approach to fully utilizing the advantages of deep underground observation data. Furthermore, this method could be extended to the processing and analysis of other geophysical data.

Coastal wave modeling and forecasting are essential in oceanography, sustainable marine energy, and ocean engineering. Precise forecasting of wave speed and direction are crucial for offshore operations, marine energy, risk management, environmental management, coastal and sustainable maritime management. The coastline of Brunei Darussalam can generate between 15 and 126 Giga Watt of wave energy. In this experimental research, we used two numerical approaches, the finite difference, and spectral element methods, to model and simulate wave speed and direction. We calculated the mean error between numerical and analytical solutions. We proposed a novel, promising, univariate time series forecasting model by combining the Long Short-Term (LSTM) with KerasTuner hyperparameters tuning and optimization techniques. This method helps us to improve the accuracy and efficiency of time-series forecasting.. The experimental data was computed from high-precision Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) sensor data. This research is part of the preliminary feasibility analysis of wave energy production in Brunei Darussalam and net zero commitment for a sustainable environment. Seven independent forecast experiments were performed for wave speed and direction in degree and radian units for 1, 3, 6, 8, 10, 12, and 24 hours. Mean squared error (MSE) was adopted as a metric for both training and testing. The experimental results reveal that the wave speed forecast has the lowest MSE compared to direction, regardless of the unit of measure, but has a longer duration. In addition, the direction forecast in the degree unit has the lowest errors compared to the unit of radians; the latter has a longer running time than the former. The model has delivered optimal results throughout the experiments with minor training and test errors. We conducted a thorough evaluations on two benchmark time series datasets, which include the study dataset and air quality index dataset, to validate the performance of the proposed model with other models. The proposed model outperforms cutting-edge forecasting models, such as the conventional LSTM, ARIMA, and Prophet. The model has the slightest forecast error compared to the existing literature’s result.

China’s greenhouse industry has thousands of years of development history, although the development of modern greenhouses has come late. After decades of development of China, its greenhouse industry is in the forefront of the world. China’s greenhouse industry is experiencing rapid development, transformation and upgrading. China ranks first in the world in terms of greenhouse area, used mainly for vegetable cultivation and plays an important role in the utilization of agricultural resources and food production. In 2023, the cumulative area of new greenhouses nationwide was 1835.87 million ha. In this paper we present the latest developments in the greenhouse sector. More specifically, we present a greenhouse market development overview, the greenhouse production, the greenhouse industry, and technology development. Current problems are underpinned, development opportunities and prospects are analyzed, and measures and specific proposals are detailed for the technological development of the greenhouse sector both for increasing product quantity and quality.

We reviewed various physical and biological manifestations of an unprecedented large-scale water temperature anomaly that emerged in the Northeast Pacific in late 2013. The anomaly dubbed “The Blob” persisted through 2014-2016, with some signs of its persistence through 2017-2018 and a possible reemergence in 2019. The tentative timeline of The Blob’s successive appearances around the Northeast Pacific is suggestive of its advection by currents around the Gulf of Alaska, along the Aleutians, into the Bering Sea, and eventually to the Bering Strait. During the initial phase of The Blob’s development in 2013-2014, advection along the Polar Front might have played a certain role. The extreme persistence and magnitude of The Blob resulted in numerous and sometimes dramatic ecosystem responses in the eastern Bering Sea. The multi-year duration of The Blob might have preconditioned the Bering Sea for the record low seasonal sea ice extent during the winter of 2017-2018 and disappearance of the cold pool in 2016 and 2018 that profoundly affected zooplankton, invertebrates, fishes, sea birds, and marine mammals. Comparison of time-series of population responses across trophic levels suggests that The Blob lowered primary production during spring, increasing small copepod production and jellyfish, and reducing energy transfer efficiently to higher trophic levels. While the Bering Sea’s water temperature, seasonal sea ice, and cold pool seem to return to the long-term mean state in 2022, it remains to be seen if the Bering Sea ecosystem will completely recover. The two most likely alternative scenarios envision either irreversible changes or hysteresis recovery.

: Tunnel instability and lining integrity are intimately tied to the creep properties of the surrounding rock. The acquisition of rock mass creep parameters is critical in ascertaining the appropriate timing for lining construction. Nevertheless, creep tests on rock specimens conducted in a controlled setting cannot be straightforwardly extrapolated to rock mass creep analysis. This study performs laboratory-based creep tests on mudstone samples and establishes the corresponding creep constitutive model. Integration of a Mohr-Coulomb element with the Burgers model in series serves to characterise the yield creep behaviour of the rock mass. Additionally, the research outlines a series of 100 orthogonal experiments utilising randomised creep parameters, and formulates a GA-BP neural network inversion model. Employing long-term deformation measurements from the crown and sidewalls of the project site, this study deduces the creep parameters of the mudstone in the investigated tunnel section and examines the prolonged deformation traits of the surrounding rock. Drawing on the deformation traits of the surrounding rock and the forces impacting the primary support and lining structures, this paper evaluates the earliest and latest viable lining casting periods and pinpoints an optimal timing interval for lining implementation. The methodologies employed herein can serve as a benchmark for analogous endeavors internationally.

In recent years, transformer-based models have gained prominence in multivariate long-term time series forecasting (LTSF), demonstrating significant advancements despite facing challenges such as high computational demands, difficulty in capturing temporal dynamics, and managing long-term dependencies. The emergence of LTSF-Linear, with its straightforward linear architecture, has notably outperformed transformer-based counterparts, prompting a reevaluation of the transformer's utility in time series forecasting. In response, this paper presents an adaptation of a recent architecture termed extended LSTM (xLSTM) for LTSF. xLSTM incorporates exponential gating and a revised memory structure with higher capacity that has good potential for LTSF. Our adopted architecture for LTSF termed as xLSTMTime surpasses current approaches. We compare xLSTMTime's performance against various state-of-the-art models across multiple real-world datasets, demonstrating superior forecasting capabilities. Our findings suggest that refined recurrent architectures can offer competitive alternatives to transformer-based models in LTSF tasks, potentially redefining the landscape of time series forecasting.

In the present study, a hybrid optimizing algorithm has been proposed using Genetic Algorithm (GA)and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to improve the estimation of electricity demand of the state of Tamil Nadu in India. The GA-PSO model optimizes the coefficients of factors of gross state domestic product (GSDP) , electricity consumption per capita, income growth rate and consumer price index (CPI) that affect the electricity demand. Based on historical data of 25 years from 1991 till 2015 , the simulation results of GA-PSO models are having greater accuracy and reliability than single optimization methods based on either PSO or GA. The forecasting results of ANN-GA-PSO are better than models based on single optimization such as ANN-BP, ANN-GA, ANN-PSO models. Further the paper also forecasts the electricity demand of Tamil Nadu based on two scenarios. First scenario is the "as-it-is" scenario , the second scenario is based on milestones set for achieving goals of "Vision 2023" document for the state. The present research also explores the causality between the economic growth and electricity demand in case of Tamil Nadu. The research indicates that a direct causality exists between GSDP and the electricity demand of the state.

In the present study, a hybrid optimizing algorithm has been proposed using Genetic Algorithm (GA)and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to improve the estimation of electricity demand of the state of Tamil Nadu in India. The GA-PSO model optimizes the coefficients of factors of gross state domestic product (GSDP) , electricity consumption per capita, income growth rate and consumer price index (CPI) that affect the electricity demand. Based on historical data of 25 years from 1991 till 2015, the simulation results of GA-PSO models are having greater accuracy and reliability than single optimization methods based on either PSO or GA. The forecasting results of ANN-GA-PSO are better than models based on single optimization such as ANN-BP, ANN-GA, ANN-PSO models. Further the paper also forecasts the electricity demand of Tamil Nadu based on two scenarios. First scenario is the “as-it-is” scenario, the second scenario is based on milestones set for achieving goals of “Vision 2023” document for the state. The present research also explores the causality between the economic growth and electricity demand in case of Tamil Nadu. The research indicates that a direct causality exists between GSDP and the electricity demand of the state.

In the process of sewage coagulation treatment, quartz sand is often used as a heavy medium to accelerate the settling rate of flocs, but it will adversely affect the removal efficiency of pollutants. The factors that affect the coagulation effect and can be controlled manually include the quartz sand dosage, coagulant dosage, sewage pH, stirring time, settling time, etc, their reasonable setting is critical to. This paper was to study the optimal conditions of quartz sand enhanced coagulation(QSEC), first, single-factor tests were conducted to preliminarily explore the optimal range of influencing factors, and then response surface methodology（RSM）tests were performed to accurately determine the optimums of significant factors. The results showed that the addition of quartz sand can’t improve the water quality of coagulation treatment, but it can significantly accelerate the coagulation settlement process, the quartz sand dosage, the coagulant dosage and sewage pH all impacted significantly on its coagulation effect, and existed inflection points. A model that could guide QSEC was obtained by RSM tests. The model optimization and experimental validation showed that the optimal QSEC conditions for treating domestic sewage were as follows: the polyaluminum chloride(PAC) dosage, cationic polyacrylamide(CPAM) dosage, the sewage pH, quartz sand dosage, stirring time and settling time were 0.97 g·L-1, 2.25 mg·L-1, 7.22, 2 g·L-1, 5 minutes and 30 minutes, respectively, and the turbidity of treated sewage was reduced to 1.15 NTU.

Background: Pediatric mallet finger injuries lack specific treatment guidelines, necessitating an exploration of effective techniques. Our aim was to evaluate the outcomes of the extension block technique in adolescent mallet finger management. Methods: A comprehensive retrospective analysis was conducted involving 36 adolescents who underwent surgery between 2014 and 2022. Ishiguro’s extension block pinning technique was the primary method employed. Treatment outcomes were evaluated using Crawford's criteria, and complications were also assessed. Results: Bone union was achieved in all cases with a mean union time of 42 days (range: 30-92 days). According to Crawford's criteria, 27 cases (75%) were classified as excellent, 5 cases (14%) as good, and 4 cases (11%) as fair. Minimal complications were observed, including three cases (8%) of superficial infections, one case (3%) of dermal necrosis, and another rare instance (3%) of osteomyelitis. No cases of poor outcomes or significant long-term complications were noted. The average follow-up period was 8.6 months (range: 2-42 months). Conclusions: Ishiguro’s extension block technique is a promising surgical option for adolescent mallet fingers. Its adoption could enhance pediatric orthopedic care, offering a valuable child-friendly treatment alternative.

This study introduces a novel method for early prediction of Kimchi cabbage (Brassica rapa subsp. pekinensis (Lour.) Hanelt) height, utilizing drone imagery and a long short-term memory (LSTM) model. The research was conducted on a testbed at the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences (NAS) in South Korea, encompassing two distinct soil types (loam and sandy loam) to investigate their impact on growth. High-resolution drone images were captured throughout the growing season to generate a canopy height model (CHM) for estimating plant height at various stages. Missing height data were interpolated using a logistic growth curve, and an LSTM model was trained on this data to predict the final height of Kimchi cabbage at harvest. Three LSTM models were developed using time-series data collected at 29, 36, and 44 days after planting (DAP). The model trained on data from DAP 44 demonstrated the highest accuracy with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.83, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.48 cm, and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.26 cm, outperforming models trained on earlier data. Color-coded maps were generated to visualize the spatial distribution of predicted Kimchi cabbage heights, revealing variations in growth patterns across the testbed and confirming the model's potential for site-specific management. Considering the trade-off between accuracy and prediction timing, the model trained on DAP 36 data (MAE = 2.77 cm) was deemed optimal for informing cultivation management decisions. This research demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of integrating drone imagery, logistic growth curves, and LSTM models for early and accurate prediction of Kimchi cabbage height. The proposed technology enables data-driven decision-making for farmers, facilitating timely interventions based on predicted growth patterns. This could lead to improved crop yields, resource optimization, and a more sustainable agricultural future. Future research will focus on refining the model's accuracy and exploring its applicability to other crops, further expanding the potential of precision agriculture technologies.

Urban tourism has witnessed significant growth in recent years, driven by various factors that foster the transformation of urban areas into tourist hotspots. These factors include a rising interest in culture and heritage, ongoing urban redevelopment and conversion processes, and the introduction of new experiences and activities. Two particularly influential factors contributing to this growth are low-cost travel, which facilitates more accessible access to urban destinations, and the emergence of new types of accommodation, such as short-term rental (also known as local accommodation or Airbnb-type accommodation). This sudden and continuous growth of this type of tourist accommodation brings new challenges to cities and local communities. On the positive side, it contributes to job opportunities, the dynamism of the local economy, and urban revitalization. On the other hand, it also represents more difficulty in retaining the local population in city centers, as more and more buildings are converted into hostels and tourist apartments. In this context, it becomes essential to conduct studies evaluating the impacts of these dynamics in urban areas and how they influence residents' and visitors' perspectives. Therefore, this study aims to identify the main transformations resulting from short-term rental (STR) development, focusing on the impacts felt by tourists and residents in Porto. A questionnaire was distributed to tourists and residents in Porto's city center in June 2023. The results reveal differences in opinions between tourists and residents, particularly concerning historical heritage preservation, local population relocation, and reduced housing availability for residents. Nevertheless, there is a similarity in their opinions regarding the stimulus that local accommodation brings to the economy and the rehabilitation of buildings and urban areas. This study reinforces the need to pay more attention to the future development of tourist accommodation in city centers, especially regarding local policies and territorial planning, to balance better tourism development and local communities' quality of life.

Climate change is a global issue that draws widespread attention from the international society. As an important component of the climate system, the water cycle is directly affected by climate change. Thus, it is very important to study the influences of climate change on the basin water cycle with respect to maintenance of healthy rivers, sustainable use of water resources, and sustainable socioeconomic development in the basin. In this study, by assessing the suitability of multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Automated Statistical Downscaling model (ASD) were used to generate future climate change scenarios. These were then used to drive distributed hydrologic models (Variable Infiltration Capacity, Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for hydrological simulation of the Yangtze River and Yellow River basins, thereby quantifying the effects of climate change on the basin water cycle. The results showed that suitability assessment adopted in this study could effectively reduce the uncertainty of GCMs, and that statistical downscaling was able to greatly improve precipitation and temperature outputs in global climate mode. Compared to a baseline period (1961–1990), projected future periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) had a slightly decreasing tendency of runoff in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin. In particular, a significant increase in runoff was observed during flood seasons in the southeast part. However, runoff of the upper Yellow River basin decreased continuously. The results provide a reference for studying climate change in major river basins of China.

Plain lakes play a crucial role in the hydrological cycle of a watershed, but their interactions with adjacent rivers and downstream water bodies can create complex river-lake relationships, often leading to frequent flooding disasters. Taking Poyang Lake as an example, this paper delves into its interaction with the Yangtze River, revealing the spatiotemporal patterns of flood propagation within the lake and its impact on surrounding flood control measures. The aim is to provide insights for flood management in similar environments worldwide. This study employs a comprehensive approach combining hydrological statistical analysis and two-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling, based on extensive hydrological, topographic, and socio-economic data. The results indicate that the annual maximum outflow from Poyang Lake is primarily controlled by floods within the watershed, while the highest annual lake water level is predominantly influenced by floods from the Yangtze River. The peak discharge typically reaches the lake outlet within 48 hours, with the peak water level taking slightly longer at 54 hours. However, water storage in the lake can shorten the time for the peak discharge to arrive. When converging with floods from the Yangtze River, the peak water level may be delayed by up to 10 days due to the top-supporting interaction. Furthermore, floods from the "Five Rivers" propagate differently within the lake, affecting various lake regions to differing degrees. Notably, floods from the Fu River cause the most significant rise in lake water level under the same flow rate. The top-supporting effect from the Yangtze River also significantly impacts the water surface slope of Poyang Lake. When the Yangtze River flood discharge far exceeds that of the "Five Rivers" (i.e., when the top-supporting intensity f value exceeds 4), the lake surface becomes as flat as a reservoir. During major floods in the watershed, the water level difference in the lake can increase dramatically, potentially creating a "dynamic storage capacity" of up to 840 million cubic meters.

The majority of existing numerical simulations of the effect of bridge piers on water movement are based on a limited number of bridge piers at a laboratory scale. Furthermore, some 2D numerical simulations for actual bridge projects have deficiencies, including the use of overly large mesh sizes and an inadequate treatment of bridge piers. In this study, we compare three methods of structural mesh encryption, suspension mesh, and nonstructural mesh based on Delft3D, and apply the optimization scheme to a real bridge project. It is demonstrated that optimal results can be achieved by utilising a grid size comparable to the pier diameter (Dp) in the region away from the piers. In the vicinity of the piers, the grid cell size should be no larger than 1/9 Dp. The suspended grid technique (DD Boundary) can yield results consistent with those obtained using a full-area high-resolution grid, provided that the total number of grids can be reduced and the computational time is considerably reduced. In this study, the unstructured mesh (Deflt3D Flexible Mesh) scheme was unable to capture the oscillations of the wake flow behind the bridge piers. However, the application of the optimized scheme in bridge engineering has demonstrated its practical value. The findings of this study on mesh resolution and suspension mesh scheme can be applied to the Delft3D software and are also useful for other numerical simulation work.

Ti-Al based alloys, particularly TiAl and Ti3Al two-phase alloys, have garnered significant attention as potential replacements for various high-temperature structural materials due to their exceptional properties, including low density, oxidation resistance, and high strength at elevated temperatures. Despite these advantages, experimental studies on the microstructure evolution of Ti-Al based alloys under complex conditions remain challenging to observe and characterize. This review article examines the current research on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of Ti-Al based alloys, focusing on two-phase Ti-Al alloys, Ti-Al amorphous alloys, Ti-Al composite materials, and the welding and multi-layer/film applications of Ti-Al alloys. The review highlights the unique capabilities of MD simulations in predicting the behavior of Ti-Al based alloys and addresses existing scientific challenges. Furthermore, the article discusses future research directions and development prospects in this field.

The selectin of a demand forecasting method is critical for companies aiming to avoid manufacturing overproduction or shortages in pursuit of sustainable development. Various qualitative and quantitative criteria with different weights must be considered during the evaluation of a forecasting method. The qualitative criteria and criteria weights are usually assessed in linguistic terms. Aggregating these various criteria and linguistic weights for evaluating and selecting demand forecasting methods in sustainable manufacturing is a major challenge. This paper proposes an extension of fuzzy Elimination and Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE) I to resolve this problem. In the proposed method, fuzzy weighted ratings are defuzzified with the signed distance to develop a crisp ELECTRE I model. Moreover, an extension to ELECTRE I is developed by suggesting an extended modified discordance matrix and a closeness coefficient for ranking alternatives. The proposed extension can overcome the problem of information loss which can lead to incorrect ranking result when using the Hadamard product to combine concordance and modified discordance matrices. A comparison is conducted to show the advantage of the proposed extension. Finally, a numerical example is used to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method; furthermore, a numerical comparison is made to display the advantage of the proposed method.

This work focuses on short-term forecasting of PV output power. The multilayer perception (MLP), convolutional neural networks (CNN), and k-nearest neighbour (kNN) neural networks have been used singly or in a hybrid (with other algorithms) to forecast solar PV power or global solar irradiance with good success. Their performances in forecasting PV power have been compared with other algorithms but not with themselves. The study aims to compare performance of a number of neural network algorithms in solar PV energy yield forecasting under different weather conditions. The performance of MLPNN, CNN and kNN are being compared using solar PV (hourly) energy yield data for Grahamstown, Eastern Cape, South Africa. The choice of location is part of the study parameters to provide insight into renewable energy power integration in specific areas in south Africa that may be prone to extreme weather conditions. The kNN algorithm was found to have RMSE value of 4.95% and MAE value of 2.74% at its worst performance, and RMSE value of 1.49% and MAE value of 0.85% at its best performance. It outperformed the others by a good margin and kNN could serve as a fast, easy, and accurate tool to forecast solar PV output power.

Variable flow emitters are a new type of emitter for underground drip irrigation that are used in locations where soil moisture is difficult to transport to the surface, which leads to crop emer-gence difficulties. The flow channel structure parameters of emitters affect the hydraulic per-formance of the emitter and its anticlogging ability. In this study, the variable flow emitter at the conventional low–flow water supply stage is taken as the research object. A combination of CFD numerical simulation of a two–phase flow of water and sand and clear water testing of test samples is applied to study the influence laws of 10 groups of variable flow emitter structural combinations on the effluent flow rate (q), flow index (x), particle passage rate and flow field inside the flow channel. The results show that the Realizable k–ε turbulence model can be used to simulate the flow field inside the variable flow emitter flow channel. The nRMSE between the measured and simulated values of q is 11.23%, and the relative error between the measured and simulated values of x is 4.66%, which gives a high simulation accuracy. The polar analysis shows that the tooth angle A has the smallest effect on the effluent flow rate q0.1 under 0.1 MPa, x, and particle passage rate of the variable flow emitter. The depth of the flow channel D, the spacing of the teeth B, and the height of the teeth E have a different order of precedence in the influence of the three indices, which are D > B > E > A, B > E > D > A, and E > B > D > A, respectively. The value of particle passage rate is positively correlated with the mean flow velocity (v) and the mean turbulent kinetic energy (k) in the flow channel, and particle passage rate tends to increase and then decrease with the increase of x. The retention time (t) of the particles in the flow channel is closely related to the magnitude of v and k. Three multivariate linear regression equations (R2 = 0.883 ~ 0.995) were constructed for q0.1, x, and particle passage rate versus the flow channel structural parameters. Using the scipy.optimize.minimize function in Python, we de-termined the three optimal combinations of flow channel structural parameters corresponding to better hydraulic performance: q0.1 is 1.5 or 2 L/h (objective function y = min x), better clogging resistance (y = max particle passage rate), and both (y = min (0.5 x - 0.5 particle passage rate)). The research results can provide a ref-erence for the optimal design of variable flow emitters.

The Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent implementation of lockdown measures have significantly impacted global electricity consumption, necessitating accurate energy consumption forecasts for optimal energy generation and distribution during a pandemic. In this study, we propose a new forecasting model called the Multivariate Multilayered LSTM with Covid-19 case injection ($\proposedModel$) for improved energy forecast during the next occurrence of a similar pandemic. We utilize data from commercial buildings in Melbourne, Australia during the Covid-19 pandemic to predict energy consumption and evaluate the model's performance against commonly used methods such as LSTM, Bi-LSTM, Linear Regression, Support Vector Machine and the previously published work of Multilayered LSTM (M-LSTM). The proposed forecasting model was analyzed using the following metrics of mean percent absolute error (MPAE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), and $R^2$ score values. The model $\proposedModel$ demonstrates superior performance, achieving the lowest MPAE values of 0.061, 0.093, and 0.158 for data sets from 3 different buildings, respectively. Our results highlight the improved precision and accuracy of the model, providing valuable information for energy management and decision-making during the challenges posed by the occurrence of a pandemic like Covid-19 in the future.

The construction time of concrete structures in hydraulic tunnels is long, the construction environment is complex, and there are many influencing factors. The requirements for construction quality are high, not only to meet the strength requirements, but also to meet the design requirements of erosion resistance, crack resistance, and seepage resistance according to its specific operating environment. Therefore, evaluating the construction quality of concrete structures in hydraulic tunnels is of great significance. Considering the randomness and fuzziness of factors affecting the construction quality of concrete structures in hydraulic tunnels, this paper proposes a comprehensive evaluation model based on Combined Weighting (CWM) and Uncertainty Measurement Theory (UM). The IAHP method and CRITIC method are used to determine the subjective and objective weights of evaluation indicators, combined weighting is based on the principle of minimum entropy, and the UM method is used to evaluate the construction quality level. Finally, taking a hydraulic tunnel as an example, its construction quality grade is calculated to be III according to the evaluation model proposed in this paper, which matches with the engineering reality, and a comparative study is made with the mixture element topology theory at the same time. It is verified that the evaluation model can scientifically and reasonably evaluate the construction quality level of concrete structures in hydraulic tunnels.

The statistical analysis of impact of the top 50 solar flares of X-class (1997-2023) on the global seismic activity, as well as on the earthquake preparation zones located in illuminated part of the globe and in the area of 5000 km radius around the subsolar point was carried out. It is shown by a method of epoch superposition that for all cases the increase of seismicity is observed, especially in the region around the subsolar point (up to 38%) during 10 days after the solar flare in comparison with preceding 10 days. The case study of aftershock sequence of strong M=9.1 earthquake (Su-matra-Andaman Islands, 26.12.2004) after the solar flare of X7.2 class (20.01.2005) demonstrated that the number of aftershocks with magnitude M≥2.5 increases more than 20 times after the solar flare with a delay of 7 days. For the case of the Darfield earthquake (M=7.1, 04.09.2010, New Zealand) it was shown that strong solar flares of class X and M probably triggered two strong aftershocks (M>6) with the same delay of 6 days on the Port Hills fault, which is the most sensitive to external electromagnetic impact from point of view of the fault electrical conductivity and orientation. Based on the obtained results the possible application of natural electromagnetic triggering of earthquakes is discussed for a short-term earthquake prediction using confidently recorded strong external electromagnetic triggering impacts on the specific earthquake preparation zones, as well as ionospheric perturbations due to aerosol emission from the earthquake sources recorded by satellites.

With the rapid development of technology and the advancement of Internet technology, various social networking platforms are gradually coming into people's view and occupying a higher and higher position. In the recommendation scenario, the user-item interaction naturally forms a bipartite heterogeneous graph structure and with the development of graph embedding and graph neural network technologies based on deep learning to process graph domain information, the combination of graph information and recommendation systems shows strong research potential and application prospects. The methodological improvement of the recommendation algorithm based on collaborative filtering takes advantage of the nature that user-items can form a bipartite graph in the recommendation scenario. The existing methods still have some shortcomings. The methods that only use weights or convolutional recurrent neural networks to implicitly model different historical behaviors lack explicit modeling of video switching relationships in serialized behaviors. The user's interest is changing all the time, so it is not possible to recommend based on the user's history, and it is necessary to consider both the long-term and short-term interest of the user according to the video content in order to achieve accurate recommendation of short videos. In this paper, we design a recommendation model based on graph neural network, which models users' long-term and short-term interests by two vector propagation methods, respectively.

Responsible, efficient, and environmentally conscious energy consumption practices are increasingly essential for ensuring the reliability of the modern electricity grid. This study focuses on leveraging time series analysis to improve forecasting accuracy, crucial for various application domains where real-world time series data often exhibit complex, non-linear patterns. Our approach advocates for utilizing Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) models for precise time series forecasting. To ensure a fair evaluation, we compare the performance of our proposed approach with traditional neural networks, time-series forecasting methods, and conventional decline curves. Additionally, individual models based on LSTM, Bi-LSTM, and other machine learning methods are implemented for a comprehensive assessment. Experimental results consistently demonstrate that our proposed model outperforms all benchmarking methods in terms of mean absolute error (MAE) across most datasets. Addressing the imbalance between activations by consumer and prosumer groups, our predictions show superior performance compared to several traditional forecasting methods, such as the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). Specifically, the root mean square error (RMSE) of Bi-LSTM is 5.35%, 46.08%, and 50.6% lower than LSTM, ARIMA, and SARIMA, respectively, on the May test data.

Very heavy stratiform precipitation (> 200 mm/per day) occurred in the Hokitika region on the west coast of the South Island of New Zealand on 18 June 2015, under north-westerlies with small CAPE (< 25 J/kg). Analyses of model simulations and observations showed that this heavy rainfall was due to cold front lifting enhanced by orographic lifting over the Southern Alps. At 1.5 km grid-length, the model terrain underestimated the average height of the 103 tallest mountains over the South Island by ~ 800 m. This leads to weaker orographic lifting and mountain blocking, and a faster-moving and stronger cold front in the Hokitika region. As a result, large errors in the heavy rainfall prediction occur. By increasing either the resolved or the sub-grid mountain heights, the simulated rainfall errors were largely reduced through stronger orographic lifting and mountain blocking, and a better simulation of the cold front movement and strength. All the experiments have the same “flow-over” regime with mountain waves and/or wave breaking (Fm ranges 0.61 – 1.21). However, the rainfall amount and distribution on the windward side of mountains altered significantly. Our new findings were that the Southern Alps can have significant indirect effects on heavy rainfall by altering the speed and strength of the cold front, in addition to the well-known direct dynamical effects (i.e., orographic lifting and mountain blocking). A combination of these direct and indirect effects makes the heavy rainfall simulation sensitive to mountain heights even under the same “flow-over” regime.

The predictability of wind information in a given location is essential for the evaluation of a wind power project. Predicting wind speed accurately improves the planning of wind power generation, reducing costs and improving the use of resources. This paper seeks to predict the mean hourly wind speed in anemometric towers (at a height of 50 meters) at two locations: a coastal region and one with complex terrain characteristics. To this end, the Holt-Winters (HW), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Hybrid time-series models were used. Observational data evaluated by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications-Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis at the same height of the towers. The results show that the hybrid model had a better performance in relation to the others, including when compared to the evaluation with MERRA-2. For example, in terms of statistical residuals, RMSE and MAE were 0.91 and 0.62 m/s, respectively. As such, the hybrid models are a good method to forecast wind speed data for wind generation.

Most of the mid-high permeability sandstone oilfields in China have entered the ultra-high water cut stage, accompanied with the highly-dispersed residual oil, and the control effect of mi-cro-heterogeneity on the residual oil is increasingly prominent. Understanding the microscopic characteristics of pore structural and its evolution during the long-term waterflooding is critical for enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of oil field exploitation. While the previous insights paid more attention to the geometrical and morphological features of pore structure and ignores the relation of pore structure with the fluid flow capacity. In this study, we propose a microscopic pore structure classification method considering pore size and local permeable capacity, which realizes the physical classification and quantitative evaluation of pore structure characteristics for different permeability rocks. The micro-pore structure is classified into 6 types based on the key evaluation parameters of pore diameter and flow flux area. By taking six mid-high permea-bility sandstone core samples from Daqing oilfield in China, a series of long-term waterflooding experiments are carried out and the interior pore structure was captured using high precision CT scanning technique. The results reveals that high-permeability reservoirs exhibit concentrated pores diameters and finer throats, whereas mid-permeability reservoirs exhibit smaller pores and throats in greater quantity. With the increase of water injection volumes, the permeable ca-pacity and connectivity of the high-connectivity pore space in ultra-high- and high-permeability reservoirs are enhanced, and in mid-permeability reservoirs, the micro-heterogeneity intensifies the increase in low-connectivity small pores. These findings provide new insights for the micro-scopic heterogeneity and a solid theoretical basis for investigating the occurrence of microscopic residual oil and optimising enhanced oil recovery strategies at the late stage of ultra-high water cut.

The microbial communities are closely related to the overall health and quality of soil, but studies on microbial ecology in apple-pear orchard soils are limited. In the current study, 28 soil samples were collected from three apple-pear orchards in northeastern China, and the composition and structure of fungal and bacterial communities were investigated by high-throughput sequencing. Molecular ecological network showed that the keystone taxa of bacterial communities were Actinobacteria, Proteobacteria, Gemmatimonadetes, Acidobacteria, Nitrospirae, and Chloroflexi, and the keystone taxa of fungal communities was Ascomycota. Mantel tests showed that soil texture and pH were important factors shaping soil bacterial and fungal communities, and soil water soluble organic carbon (WSOC) and nitrate nitrogen (NO3--N) were also closely related to soil bacterial communities. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) and variation partition analysis (VPA) analysis revealed that geographic distance, soil texture, pH, and other soil properties could explain 10.55%, 13.5%, and 19.03% of the overall variation of bacterial communities, and they explained 11.61%, 13.03%, and 20.26% of the overall variation of fungal communities, respectively. The key stone taxa of bacterial and fungal communities in apple-pear orchard soils and their strong correlation with soil properties could provide useful clues toward sustainable management of orchards.

Due to the imbalance between the supply and demand of oxygen, the oxygen system of iron- and steel-making enterprises in China has problems with high oxygen emission and high pressure in the pipelines, resulting in the energy consumption of oxygen production being high. To relieve this problem, using a large-scale iron- and steel-making mill as a case study, the research on demand forecasting and optimal scheduling of the oxygen system was carried out. The ARIMA model and the GABP model are employed to forecast oxygen demand. Based on the forecast results, an optimal scheduling model for the oxygen system was developed to conduct optimal scheduling. The case study shows that based on the oxygen demand forecast and the optimal scheduling, the oxygen emission and the pipeline pressure in the studied iron- and steel-making enterprise can be significantly reduced, thereby achieving considerable energy-saving effects and economic benefits. Specifically, the following conclusions are obtained: (1) For the oxygen demand forecast, the prediction accuracy of the GABP model is better than that of the ARIMA model. The average MAPE of the 12 sets of data of the ARIMA and GABP models are 23.8% and 20.2%, respectively. (2) By comparing the scheduling results and the field data, it is found that after the scheduling, the amount of oxygen emission has decreased by 6.32%, the pipeline pressure has decreased by 0.61%, and the energy consumption of oxygen compression has decreased by 1.6%. Considering both the oxygen emission loss and the energy consumption of oxygen compression, the total power consumption of the oxygen system is reduced by 1.38%, which saves the electricity cost of about 9.03 million RMB per year.

Almost 115 million tons of fibers of which almost 90 million tons of chemical fibers were produced in the world in 2021, which are mainly used for the production of clothing and footwear. 30% of textile and apparel products are never sold, which means an extreme waste production. This article points out the possibilities of forecasting the sales of clothing in the case of one relatively large online store. Inadequate stocks of textile products in the company lead to loss and the need to sell products at a discount, which is undesirable for the company. The study in this article points to the calculation of the sales forecast for 2019 for the selected textile products, finding the analogy of the followed product sale. Sales for the years 2017 and 2018 serve as input data. The problem with textile products is that they have a short life cycle, i.e. the length of the life cycle is approximately half a year, and a high seasonality is also presented there. Therefore, the seasonal indices and Holt-Winters methods (multiplication and additional approaches) were used for products forecasting. Ultimately, this model could contribute to reducing the loss of unsold goods and thus reduce the waste of resources and increase the use of goods in other similar companies.

We construct a Bayesian estimator for the dilution of a wastewater sample. When wastewater is diluted by rainwater an estimate of the level of dilution is required if we are to normalise sample measurements of disease markers such as SARS-CoV-2 RNA. We consider the situation where flow measurements are available, but will regularly be unreliable because of the action of combined sewer outflows (CSOs) and wastewater storage tanks, which divert wastewater away from treatment plants when the flow is excessive. However, we also have proxies for the flow from various chemical markers (e.g.\ phosphate, ammonium, electrical conductivity), whose level per unit of population is fixed. The new flow estimator has multiple advantages compared to existing procedures: credible intervals for the estimates; optimal weighting of the chemical markers; systematic handling of missing and censored values; and model based smoothing without lags.

This study utilises NaOH to treat composite cementitious materials containing aeolian sand and zeolite powders, which were used to replace 50% of the cement in aeolian-sand concrete (ASC). The mechanical properties of treated ASC considerably improved, especially when the NaOH dosage was 4% by mass. After curing this sample (denoted as AAZC-4) for 28 d, its compressive strength improved by 17.2% and its split tensile was increased by 16.3%. Potassium feldspar and montmorillonite in zeolite powder and SiO2 in the sand were decomposed by OH− and combined with other elements to generate various silicate gels and A-type potassium zeolite crystals inside the concrete. Microscopic examination showed that the gels and crystals intertwined to fill the pores, decreasing (increasing) the percentage of large (small) pores, thus optimising the pore structure. This substantially improved the mechanical properties of ASC. Freeze–thaw salt-intrusion tests showed that the extent of mass loss, degree of damage and loss of compressive strength of AAZC-4 were similar to those of ordinary concrete but were reduced by 36.8%, 19% and 52.1%, respectively, compared with those of ASC. Therefore, AAZC-4 has sustainable working performance in the chloride ion permeable environment in cold and arid areas.

Droughts have a substantial effect on water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems on a worldwide scale. In the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, droughts exacerbated by climate change are significantly endangering the region's agricultural sustainability and output. Conventional forecasting techniques frequently do not capture the intricate dynamics of meteorological phenomena associated to drought effectively, prompting the exploration of more advanced methodologies. This work utilises artificial intelligence, par-ticularly machine learning methods like Gradient Boosting and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), to enhance drought pre-diction in the Mekong Delta. The study utilises data from 11 meteorological stations spanning from 1990 to 2022 to create and evaluate Machine Learning models based on several climatic factors. We utilise Gradient Boosting and XGBoost algorithms to estimate the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and evaluate their effectiveness in comparison to con-ventional forecasting techniques. The results show that Machine Learning, particularly XGBoost, surpasses traditional approaches in predicting SPEI accuracy at various time scales. XGBoost demonstrates skill in understanding the complex relationships between climatic factors, with R² values falling between 0.90 and 0.94 for 1-month forecasts. The progress highlights the potential of Machine Learning in improving drought management and adaptation tactics, proposing the incorporation of Machine Learning forecasting models into decision-making processes to enhance drought resistance in susceptible areas.

The mathematical structure underlying a sentence is made of two independent processing units in series. The conditional probability density function of sentence length (measured in words) recordable in the extended short–term memory (E–STM) buffer made of CF cells is Gaussian. The number of sentences that authors of Italian and English Literatures have written is compared to that theoretically available to them. The multiplicity factor α describes this comparison. α&gt;1 is more likely than α&lt;1 and often α≫1, therefore the same sentence pattern is reused many times. These texts are easier to read. Very few novels show α&lt;1. In these cases, there are enough diverse sentence patters to convey meaning, but most of them are not used. Texts are more difficult to read, as measured by a universal readability index GU. A mismatch index IM synthetically describes the process. α, GU. and IM increase with year of publication. Future work will concern other literatures – including ancient ones as Greek and Latin – to confirm what, in our opinion, is general feature of human mind.

We investigated the role of the human medio-temporal complex (hMT+) in the memory encoding and storage of a sequence of four coherently moving RDKs by applying repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) during an early or late phase of the retention interval. Moreover, in a second experiment we also tested whether disrupting the functional integrity of hMT+ during the early phase impaired the precision of the encoded motion directions. Overall, results showed that both recognition accuracy and precision were worse in middle serial positions, suggesting the occurrence of primacy and recency effects. We found that rTMS delivered during the early (but not the late) phase of the retention interval was able to impair not only recognition of RDKs, but also the precision of the retained motion direction. However, such impairment occurred only for RDKs presented in middle positions along the presented sequence, where performance was already closer to chance level. Altogether these findings suggest an involvement of hMT+ in the memory encoding of visual motion direction. Given that both position sequence and rTMS modulated not only recognition but also precision of the stored information, these findings are in support of a model of visual short-term memory with a variable resolution of each stored item, consistent with the assigned amount of memory resources, and that such item-specific memory resolution is supported by the functional integrity of area hMT+.

Large-scale hydrological modeling in China is challenging given the sparse meteorological stations and large uncertainties associated with atmospheric forcing data.Here we introduce the development and use of the China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets for the SWAT model (CMADS) in the Heihe River Basin(HRB) for improving hydrologic modeling, by leveraging the datasets from the China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS)(including climate data from nearly 40000 area encryption stations, 2700 national automatic weather stations, FengYun (FY) 2 satellite and radar stations). CMADS uses the Space Time Multiscale Analysis System (STMAS) to fuse data based on ECWMF ambient field and ensure data accuracy. In addition, compared with CLDAS, CMADS includes relative humidity and climate data of varied resolutions to drive hydrological models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Here, we compared climate data from CMADS, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and traditional weather station (TWS) climate forcing data and evaluatedtheir applicability for driving large scale hydrologic modeling with SWAT. In general, CMADS has higher accuracy than CFRS when evaluated against observations at TWS; CMADS also provides spatially continuous climate field to drive distributed hydrologic models, which is an important advantage over TWS climate data, particular in regions with sparse weather stations. Therefore, SWAT model simulations driven with CMADS and TWS achieved similar performances in terms of monthly and daily stream flow simulations, and both of them outperformed CFRS. For example, for the three hydrological stations (Ying Luoxia, Qilian Mountain, and ZhaMasheke) in the HRB at the monthly and daily Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranges of 0.75-0.95 and 0.58-0.78, respectively, which are much higher than corresponding efficiency statistics achieved with CFSR (monthly: 0.32-0.49 and daily: 0.26 – 0.45). The CMADS dataset is available free of charge and is expected to a valuable addition to the existing climate reanalysis datasets for deriving distributed hydrologic modeling in China and other countries in East Asia.

Heart rate variability (HRV) is commonly intended as the variation in the heart rate (HR) and it is evaluated in the time and frequency domains with various well known methods. In the present paper, we first consider an abstract model in which the HR is the instantaneous frequency of an otherwise periodic signal such as the electrocardiogram (ECG). Thus the ECG is assumed as a frequency modulated signal, or carrier signal, where HRV or HRVt is a supposed time-domain signal which is frequency modulating the carrier ECG signal around its average frequency. Hence we describe an algorithm able to frequency demodulate the ECG signal to extract a continuous signal HRVt with possibly enough time resolution to analyse fast time-domain variations in the instantaneous HR. After exhaustive testing of the method on simulated frequency modulated sinusoidal signals, we have applied the procedure on actual ECG tracings. The purpose of the work is to eventually use the heart as a kind of biological sensor of the fast activity of the autonomous nervous system (ANS) to study the ANS ultra-short-term event-evoked responses. A few preliminary, not clinical, real examples are also given.

In this article, we present the use of the coupled land surface model and groundwater flow model SWAT-MODFLOW with the decision support tool WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning software) to predict future surface water abstraction scenarios in a complex river basin, under conditions of climate change. The modeling framework is applied to the Dee River catchment in Wales, United Kingdom. Regarding hydrology, the coupled model improves overall water balance and low streamflow conditions, compared to a stand-alone SWAT model. The calibrated SWAT-MODFLOW is employed with high resolution climate model data from the UKCP18 project with future scenario of RCP85 from 2020 to 2040. Then, water supply results from SWAT-MODFLOW are fed into WEAP as input for the river reach in the downstream region of the river basin. This system is utilized to create various future scenarios of surface water abstraction of public water supply in the downstream region: maximum licensed withdraw, 50 % authorized abstractions, monthly time series with 1% increase of water use, and maximum water withdraw year based on historical records repeated every year with 1% increase of water use, to estimate the unmet demands and streamflow requirement. This modeling approach can be used in other river basins to manage scenarios of supply and demand.

The purpose of the evaluation of the Peruvian energy generation system is to project the electricity generation and demand until the year 2050. To achieve this, three alternative scenarios have been defined and analyzed using the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) software. The scenarios are as follows: the first one, Business-as-Usual scenario, based on normal trends according to historical data and referencing projections made by Peruvian state entities; the second one is focused on Energy Efficiency, the highlighted characteristic is taking into consideration the efficient conditions in transmission and distribution of electric energy; and the third one, centered on Geothermal Energy, focused on the development of this type of energy source and prioritizing it. The primary purpose of this analysis is to identity advantages and disadvantages inherent in each scenario in order to get the best of each one. In this way, the intention is to propose solutions based on Peru’s national reality or possible uses of the country’s energy potential to supply its energy demand. Currently, Peru’s energy demand relies on fossil fuels, hydraulic, and thermal energy. However, there is the possibility of transforming this system into a sustainable one, by strengthening existing and growing energy sources such as solar and wind energy, and new technologies for hydraulic and thermal energy, in addition to considering geothermal energy as the main energy source in the third scenario. The new system mentioned satisfactorily indicate that the CO2 equivalent emissions decrease significantly in the third scenario, with a 15.8% reduction compared to the first scenario and a 9.7% reduction in comparison to the second. On the other hand, the second scenario shows a 5.6% decrease in CO2 emissions compared to the first, resulting from improvements in technology and energy efficiency without requiring significant modifications or considerable investments, as in the third scenario.

Traditional concrete pavements have poor water permeability, while the strength of pervious concrete pavements is low. To solve these problems, this study designed Innovative recycled aggregate pervious concrete (I-RAPC) with controllable water permeability and high strength by using response surface methodology, and investigated the effects of different pore parameters (number, diameter, material, distribution form, etc.) on the performance of I-RAPC. And the strength discount factor method was proposed to construct the theoretical calculation model of compressive strength and pipe pore parameters, and the calculation model of water permeability coefficient was established at the same time. The results show that the fewer the number of holes and the smaller the pipe diameter of I-RAPC, the higher its compressive strength and the smaller the water permeability coefficient. The theoretical model of compressive strength can accurately evaluate the discounting effect of the pore parameters on the compressive strength of I-RAPC, and the maximum relative error is only 7.52%, and the maximum relative error of the calculation model of water permeability coefficient is only 4.42%. I-RAPC has the advantages of high strength and permeability with controllable performance, which overcomes the problems of random distribution of pore space, uncertainty of water permeability, and strength of ordinary pervious concrete.

The optimal surgical approach for thymoma resection is still an object of debate. The increasing experience in robotic-assisted thoracic surgery (RATS) has led to the progressive affirmation of this technique as a valid alternative to Video-Assisted Thoracic Surgery (VATS), sternotomy and thoracotomy in this setting. The present study aims to compare the post-operative and short-term results of RATS Thymectomy for thymoma with those of other main surgical approaches (sternotomy, thoracotomy, and VATS) from a high-volume single center.Between May 2021 - September 2023, 40 consecutive patients underwent RATS Thymectomy for I to limited-stage III thymoma in our center. Three homogenous groups of consecutive patients who received thymic surgery by main alternative approaches (sternotomy, thoracotomy, VATS) over the last 5 years, were identified in order to perform a comparative analysis. Data of operative technique, time of surgery, associated resections, conversion rate, overall morbidity, tumor size, radicality, postoperative pain, length of hospital stay, and cosmetic results were recorded and compared between each control group and the RATS group. Tumor size was higher in the sternotomy group, but not significantly. The mean operative time of RATS interventions was significantly lower than that of sternotomy and VATS. It was significantly shorter compared to thoracotomy if excluding docking-undocking time. Higher rate of associated adjacent structures resection was reported in the sternotomy group (p=0.005). Conversion rate was significantly higher in VATS group (p= 0.026) compared to RATS. Postoperative pain at 24 and 48 hours was significantly lower in RATS group compared to the others. Improved cosmetics results were reported after RATS compared to sternotomy (p= 0.0001) and thoracotomy (p= 0.001) groups, with a trend towards better results compared to VATS (p=0.05). Length of hospital stay was shorter in the RATS group with a significant difference vs. the sternotomy group (p<0.001). These results from a single center confirm the safety and effectiveness of RATS for the treatment of limited stage thymoma. Advantage in terms of operative outcomes, post-operative pain, cosmetic results, and hospital stay was observed if compared to the alternative approaches. Short-term oncologic outcome was excellent based on the high complete excision rate of the tumor.

Both cementless and cemented stems have exhibited favorable long-term outcomes in total hip arthroplasty. Nonetheless, in elderly patients, cemented hips offer an advantage because of their reduced risk of periprosthetic fractures. The present study aimed to assess the initial outcomes of 28 patients who underwent unilateral cemented total hip arthroplasty utilizing the calcar-guided A2 stem (Artiqo GmbH, Lüdinghausen, Germany). Various types of antibiotic-loaded cement were employed. Demographic data, comorbidities, and standardized clinical assessment tools, including the Harris Hip Score, were utilized during the follow-up. Radiographic assessments included preoperative, postoperative, and follow-up imaging to evaluate subsidence, osteolysis, and bone resorption. The results indicated that among the 28 patients, 5 withdrew consent, and 2 patients passed away from unrelated causes. Additionally, one prosthesis was explanted because of undersizing of the cement stopper, resulting in an inadequate cement mantle. As a result, 20 patients underwent a 1-year follow-up, revealing noteworthy enhancements in clinical scores, with no instances of radiolucent lines or osteolysis. In summary, our short-term experience with this particular cemented short-stem design yielded promising results, exhibiting excellent functional outcomes and no aseptic loosening attributable to the stem. Further clinical studies and registry data are essential to corroborate these findings.

Revealing the spatial distribution mechanism of the coupling effect between soil water and salt is essential for managing saline-alkali farmland. This study utilized the multifractal method to analyze soil water and salt under varying water content levels in arid saline-alkali farmland. Soil samples were collected on the second (S1), fifth (S2), eighth (S3), eleventh (S4), and fourteenth (S5) days after a rainfall event. The findings showed that a significant decrease in soil water content, contrasting with an increase in soil salt content throughout the soil layers post-rainfall. As water content decreased, the spatial variability of soil water initially increased from S1-3 and then decreased, while the spatial variability of soil salt decreased. The spatial distribution between soil water and salt exhibited a high correlation at S3-4 (with relative water content of soil ranging from 0.52 to 0.75) due to their coupling effect. However, soil salt was unevenly leached by rainfall at high water content levels (S1-2) and precipitated at low water content levels (S5), resulting in low spatial variability correlations between soil water and salt. This study elucidated the coupling process of soil water and salt, identifying their spatiotemporal distribution mechanism in dryland agricultural areas.

The pollution of the bays in Abidjan is a major concern for the Ivorian policy makers. In fact, the pollution of the bays induce high costs to the society while impacting population health dramatically. As a result, pollution reduction management of production activities has been undertaken in the Cocody Bay area. To our knowledge, no study has yet proposed a model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these pollution management strategies. A cost-effectiveness model, based on Monte Carlo simulation, was developed to assess the economic and environmental impacts of various scenarios characterized by a set of production practices, both in the short term and in the long term. The authors discuss the steps and input parameters of the model presented. The proposed model may serve as the basis for identifying an optimal production scenario defined as the scenario with the best incremental cost-effectiveness ratio considering a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold. The WTP, to be estimated based on the gross domestic product of Côte d’Ivoire, represents the opportunity costs associated with selecting the optimal scenario. The current framework can also be applied to other settings facing similar challenge.

The recent availability of commercial platforms for behavioral analysis in zebrafish larvae based on video-tracking technologies has exponentially increased the number of studies analyzing different behaviors in this model organism to assess neurotoxicity. Among the most commonly used assays in zebrafish larvae are basal locomotor activity (BLA) and visual motor response (VMR). However, the effect of different intrinsic and extrinsic factors that can significantly alter the outcome of these assays is still not well understood. In this work we have analyzed in 143 larvae the influence of age (5-8 days post-fertilization), time of day (8:00, 10:00, 12:00, 14:00; 16:00, 18:00, and 20:00 h), and experiment (three experiments performed at different days) on BLA and VMR results (4,004 analyses for each behavior). Results from both behaviors were adjusted to a Random-Effects linear regression model using generalized least squares (GLS), including in the model the effect of the three variables, the second-way interactions between them and the three-way interaction. The results presented in this manuscript show a specific effect of all three intrinsic factors and their interactions on both behaviors, supporting the view that the most stable time period for performing these behavioral assays is from 10:00 am to 04:00 pm, with some differences depending on age of the larva and the behavioral test.

There are now a wide variety of global metrics. To find the degree of overlap between these different measures, we employ a principal components analysis (PCA) to 15 indices across 145 countries. Our results demonstrate that the most important underlying dimension highlights that economic development and social progress go hand in hand with state stability. The results are used to produce categorical divisions of the world. The threefold division identifies a world composed of what we describe and map as Rich, Poor and Middle countries. A five-group classification provided a more nuanced categorization described as; The Very Rich, Free and Stable, Affluent and Free, Upper Middle, Lower Middle, and Poor and Not Free.

Immersion in forest environments was shown to produce beneficial effects to human health, in particular psychophysical relaxation, so much that this practice is increasingly recognized as a form of integrative medicine. Limited evidence exists about both statistical significance and size of the effects conditioned on personal characteristics, as well as on the main external variables. The primary purpose of this study was to substantiate the very concept of forest therapy by means of the quantification and significance of the psychological effects, stratified by gender, age groups and place of residence. A preliminary qualitative analysis of the main determinants, in particular the method of conducting, the meteorological comfort and the concentration of volatile organic compounds in the forest atmosphere, was afforded. Seven forest therapy sessions were performed in late summer though early fall, resulting in 150 psychological self-assessment questionnaires administered before and after each session. The results were comparable or even better than others reported in the international literature. Moreover, preliminary evidence arose about different functionality towards specific psychological indexes conditioned at least on gender and age groups, as well as meteorological comfort, structured programs and, possibly, volatile organic compounds showed an impact on the outcomes.

Thermal variations affect tri-trophic interactions involving plants, herbivores, and parasitoids, causing a mismatch between their phenological cycles. In the current environmental context of climate change, climatic factors can undergo profound and sudden changes, such as sudden hot or cold snaps. Here we show that episodes of short but sustained low temperatures have increased, mainly in the month of May, in the last two decades. We subjected galls induced by Asian chestnut gall wasp (ACGW) Dryocosmus kuriphilus to cold stress to assess if and how the pest and its parasitoids were affected. Over the course of two years seasonal parasitism, parasitism rates, the relative abundance of each parasitoid species, and mortality of ACGW were calculated. We found that the cold treatment affected both pest and parasitoids, resulting in a reduction in emerging ACGWs and differing ratios of species within the parasitoid community. The striking example was the change in the relative frequency of three species of Eupelmus spp. and of Mesopolobus tibialis, which doubled in thermally-stressed galls in all chestnut fields. The thermal effects on the development of the host and the direct effects of cold temperatures on the surface of galls (i.e., humidity or hardness of the galls) warrant further research in this direction.

This study develops a structure for mapping native vegetation in a transition area between Brazilian Cerrado and Atlantic Forest from integrated spatial information from the Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites. Most studies use this data separately, however, the integrated use of optical sensors with Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors can improve the methodology for classifying land use and land cover (LULC). The fusion of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2, for example, can increase the accuracy of mapping algorithms, using complementary information, such as spectral, backscattering, polarimetry, and interferometry. The study area comprises the Lobo Reservoir Hydrographic Basin, which is part of an environmental conservation unit protected by Brazilian law and with significant human development. LULC were classified, using the random forest deep learning algorithm. The classifying attributes were backscatter coefficients, polarimetric decomposition, and interferometric coherence for radar data (Sentinel-1), and optical spectral data, comprising bands in the red edge, near infrared, and shortwave infrared (Sentinel-2). The attributes were evaluated in three settings in which the SAR and optical data were evaluated separately (C1 and C2, respectively) and in an integrated manner (C3). The study found greater accuracy for C3 (96.54%), an improvement of nearly 2% compared to C2 (94.78%) and more than 40% in relation to C1 (55.73%). The classification algorithm encountered significant challenges in identifying wetlandsin C1, but performance improved in C3, enhancing differentiation by stratifying a greater number of classes during training and facilitating visual interpretation during sampling. Accordingly, the use of SAR and optical data becomes an alternative to optimize LULC mapping in tropical regions, due to the limited influence of atmosphere on images in the microwave range.

Lake sediment records are of great importance for understanding the evolution of watershed environments. Various studies have been carried out to constrain the depositional ages of lake sediments and examine their physical, chemical, and biological characteristics, aiming to construct historical vegetation, environment and climate patterns in Chinese lake watersheds. In this study, we obtained relevant literature on lake sediment records by searching the key word 'age-depth' from the databases – Web of Science and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI, the largest Chinese academic database). We analyzed the literature based on its type (published in a Chinese/English journal or as a Master’s/PhD thesis), period of publication, journal (if published in a journal), key authors, study area, dating scale, and main aims. The results suggest that the lakes in the plateau regions are the most popular research topic typically covering 100–200 years (short-term) and 500–30,000 years (long-term). The literature focuses on a wide range of topics, from past environmental evolution in the watershed to lake ecology, and provides a solid foundation for better understanding regional climate change and the preservation of lake environments and ecosystems. In the future, resulting data from environmental reconstruction with lake sediments will be needed to integrate with emerging information processing technologies (e.g., artificial intelligence and meta-analysis), to disentangle the complex interplay between Earth surface processes and global climate change; furthermore, strengthening interdisciplinary collaboration will deepen our comprehension of man-land relationship and promote the sustainable management of lake ecosystems in the context of global climate change.