In this paper, we study the semilinear pseudo-parabolic equations $\displaystyle u_{t} - \triangle_{\mathbb{B}}u - \triangle_{\mathbb{B}}u_{t} = \left|u\right|^{p-1}u$ on a manifold with conical singularity, where $\triangle _{\mathbb{B}}$ is Fuchsian type Laplace operator investigated with totally characteristic degeneracy on the boundary $x_{1} = 0$. Firstly, we discuss the invariant sets and the vacuum isolating behavior of solutions with the help of a family of potential wells. Then, we derive a threshold result of existence and nonexistence of global weak solution: for the low initial energy $J(u_{0})<d$, the solution is global in time with $I(u_{0}) >0$ or $\displaystyle\Vert \nabla_{\mathbb{B}}u_{0}\Vert_{L_{2}^{\frac{n}{2}}(\mathbb{B})} = 0$ and blows up in finite time with $I(u_{0}) < 0$; for the critical initial energy $J(u_{0}) = d$, the solution is global in time with $I(u_{0}) \geq0$ and blows up in finite time with $I(u_{0}) < 0$. The decay estimate of the energy functional for the global solution and the estimates of the lifespan of local solution are also given.

The SK model proposed by Sherrington and Kirkpatrick is an important mean field model for spin glasses. The dependence structure of Hamiltonians of the SK model is considered in this paper. We have investigated the covariance matrix of Hamiltonians of the SK model, and establish a relationship between the rank of the corresponding covariance matrix and the dimension of the space spanned by the Hamiltonians. Finally, we also give an upper bound for the rank of the covariance matrix, which might be the best.

In (Semigroup Forum 77: 325-338, 2008) Mahmoudi M. and Renshaw J. solved a study that covers of cyclic $S$-acts over monoids. This article is an attempt to initiate the covers of finitely generated $S$-acts. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for a monoid to have the properties that $n$-generated $S$-acts have strongly flat covers, Condition $(P)$ covers and projective covers. The main conclusions extend some known results. We show also that Condition $(P)$ covers of finitely generated $S$-acts are not unique, unlike the situation for strongly flat covers. Additionally, we demonstrate that the property of Enochs' $\mathcal{X}$-precover of $S$-act $A$, where $\mathcal{X}$ denotes a class of $S$-acts that are closed under isomorphisms.

In this paper, we study the global existence and exponential decay for a dynamic contact problem between a Timoshenko beam with second sound and two rigid obstacles, of which the heat flux is given by Cattaneo's law instead of the usual Fourier's law. The main difficulties arise from the irregular boundary terms, from the low regularity of the weak solution and from the weaker dissipative effects of heat conduction induced by Cattaneo's law. By considering related penalized problems, proving some a priori estimates and passing to the limit, we prove the global existence of the solutions. By considering the approximate framework, constructing some new functionals and applying the perturbed energy method, we obtain the exponential decay result for the approximate solution, and then prove the exponential decay rate to the original problem by utilizing the weak lower semicontinuity arguments.

The main contribution of this paper is to develop a graphical tool to evaluate the suitability of a candidate parametric model to fit a data set. The practical motivation is to check the adequacy of the so called SAINT model proposed in Jarner and Kryger (2011). This model has been implemented in practice by an important European pension fund concerned with setting annuity reserves for all current or former employees of Denmark. So, one particular relevant question is whether this mortality model is actually fitting old-age. Our graphical test can be described as follows. First we transform the data by means of the parametric model which is being evaluated. Should the model be correct, the transformed data will be in accordance with an Exponential distribution with rate 1. Then we construct a family of local linear hazard estimates based on the data on the transformed scale. Finally we use the statistical tool SiZer to assess the goodness-of-fit of the Exponential distribution to the data on the transformed scale. If the model is correct the SiZer map should not reveal any significant feature in the family of kernel estimates. Our method allow us to establish a diagnostic regarding the validity of the SAINT model when describing mortality patterns in four different countries.

In this paper, we study the well-posedness and asymptotics of a one-dimensional thermoelastic laminated beam system either with or without structural damping, where the heat conduction is given by Fourier's law effective in the rotation angle displacements. We show that the system is well-posed by using Lumer-Philips theorem, and prove that the system is exponentially stable if and only if the wave speeds are equal, by using the perturbed energy method and Gearhart-Herbst-Prüss-Huang theorem. Furthermore, we show that the system with structural damping is polynomially stable provided that the wave speeds are not equal, by using the second-order energy method.

In this work, we consider a one-dimensional laminated beam in the case of non-equal wave speeds with only one infinite memory on the effective rotation angle. In this case, we establish the general decay result for the energy of solution without any kind of internal or boundary control. The main result is obtained by applying the method used in Guesmia et al. (Electron. J. Differential Equations 193: 1-45, 2012) and the second-order energy.

In this paper, we study a one-dimensional Bresse-Cattaneo system with infinite memories and time-dependent delay term (the coefficient of which is not necessarily positive) in the internal feedbacks. First, it is proved that the system is well-posed by means of the Hille-Yosida theorem under suitable assumptions on the relaxation functions. Then, without any restriction on the speeds of wave propagations, we establish the exponential or general decay result by introducing suitable energy and Lyapunov functionals.

In this study, based on a new quantum integral identity, the authors establish some quantum estimates of Hermite-Hadamard type inequalities for convex functions. These results generalize and improve some known results given in literatures.

In this paper, we consider a fourth-order suspension bridge equation with nonlinear damping term |u_t|^m-2u_t and source term |u|^p-2u. We give necessary and sufficient condition for global existence and energy decay results without considering the relation between m and p. Moreover, when p>m, we give sufficient condition for finite time blow-up of solutions. The lower bound of the blow-up time T_max is also established. It worth to mention that our obtained results extend the recent results of Wang (J. Math. Anal. Appl., 2014) to the nonlinear damping case.

In his best-selling book An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, W. Feller established a way of ending the St. Petersburg Paradox by the introduction of an entrance fee, and provided it for the case in which the game is played with a fair coin. A natural generalization of his method is to establish the entrance fee for the case in which the probability of head is θ (0 < θ < 1/2). The deduction of those fees is the main result of Section 2. We then propose a Bayesian approach to the problem. When the probability of head is θ (1/2 < θ < 1) the expected gain of the St. Petersburg Game is finite, therefore there is no paradox. However, if one takes θ as a random variable assuming values in (1/2,1) the paradox may hold, what is counter-intuitive. On Section 3 we determine a necessary and sufficient condition for the absence of paradox on the Bayesian approach and on Section 4 we establish the entrance fee for the case in which θ is uniformly distributed in (1/2,1), for in this case there is paradox.

This research focuses on the Hopf bifurcation occurring at a singular point with high-order degeneracy in a class of three-dimensional systems. Based on center manifold theorem, by expanding the technique for determining singular point values of degenerate singularities in two-dimensional systems, the formal series method to determine the singular point values at the high-order degenerate critical point is discussed. Furthermore, a class of specific three-dimensional differential systems with high-order degenerate singularities is explored. By computing the singular point values and determining center conditions, we proved that a minimum of 5 small-amplitude limit cycles in the vicinity of the origin. This research provides new perspectives on the center problem and limit cycle bifurcation in high-dimensional systems with high-order degenerate singular points.

Few studies have examined the dietary protein intake and sources in combination with the longitudinal changes in brain structure markers. Our study aimed to examine the association between dietary protein intake and different sources of dietary protein with the longitudinal rate of change in brain structural markers. A total of 2723 and 2679 participants from the UK Biobank were included in the analysis. The relative and absolute amounts of dietary protein intake were calculated through a 24-hour dietary recall questionnaire. The longitudinal change rates of brain structural biomarkers were computed using two waves of brain imaging data. We utilized multiple linear regression to examine the association between dietary protein and different sources and the longitudinal changes in brain structural biomarkers. Restrictive cubic splines were used to explore nonlinear relationships, and stratified and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Increasing the proportion of animal protein in dietary protein intake is associated with a slower reduction in the total hippocampus volume (THV, β: -0.02524, P&lt;0.05), left hippocampus volume (LHV, β: -0.02435, P&lt;0.01) and right hippocampus volume (RHV, β: -0.02544, P&lt;0.05).Higher intake of animal protein relative to plant protein is linked to a lower atrophy rate in THV (β: -0.01249, P&lt;0.05) and LHV (β: -0.01173, P&lt;0.05) and RHV (β: -0.01193, P&lt;0.05). Individuals with higher intake of seafood exhibit lower longitudinal rate of change in HV compared to those with no consume (THV, β: -0.004514; P&lt;0.05; RHV, β: -0.005527, P&lt;0.05). In subgroup and sensitivity analyses, there was not a significantly alteration. A moderate increase in the intake and proportion of animal protein in the diet, especially from seafood, is associated with a lower longitudinal change rate in hippocampus volume.

Recent analyses of cosmic microwave background surveys have revealed hints that there may be a non-trivial running of the running of the spectral index. If future experiments were to confirm these hints, it would prove a powerful discriminator of inflationary models, ruling out simple single field models. We discuss how isocurvature perturbations in multi-field models can be invoked to generate large runnings in a non-standard hierarchy, and find that a minimal model capable of practically realising this would be a two-field model with a non-canonical kinetic structure. We also consider alternative scenarios such as variable speed of light models and canonical quantum gravity effects and their implications for runnings of the spectral index.

We introduce the notion of generalized contraction on dualistic partial metric spaces. A fixed point theorem for mappings satisfying above mentioned contraction is obtained. Some consequences of our result are obtained. We construct an example to demonstrate the effectiveness of our result among the corresponding results in partial metric spaces. Our results provide substantial generalizations and improvements of several well known results existing in the comparable literature. We discuss an application of our fixed point results to show the existence of solution of functional equations.

Motivated by a common Mathematical Finance topic, this paper surveys several results concerning windings of 2-dimensional processes, including planar Brownian motion, complex-valued Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and planar stable processes. In particular, we present Spitzer's asymptotic Theorem for each case. We also relate this study to the pricing of Asian options.

In this data deposit, I describe a dataset that is the result of content mining 167,318 published articles for statistical test results. As a result of this content mining, 688,112 results from 50,845 articles were extracted. In order to provide a comprehensive set of data, the statistical results are supplemented with metadata from the article they originate from. The dataset is provided in a comma separated file (CSV) in long-format. For each of the 688,112 results, 20 variables are included, of which seven are article metadata and 13 pertain to the individual statistical results (e.g., reported and recalculated p-value). A five-pronged approach was taken to generate the dataset: (i) collect journal lists, (ii) spider journal pages for articles, (iii) download articles, (iv) add article metadata, and (v) mine articles for statistical results.

In this paper, we prove the existence of three solutions for a $p$-Kirchhoff problem with $\psi$-Hilfer fractional derivative. To be more precise, we use the variational method and we prove that the associated functional energy admits a critical point in each of the three constructed sets, these critical points are weak solutions for a studied problem. Moreover, by definition of these sets, one of these solutions is positive, the second is negative, and the third one change sign. At the end of this work, we present an example to validate our main results.

The systematic sampling is used as a method to get the quantitative results from the tissues and the radiological images. Systematic sampling on real line (R) is a very attractive method within which the biomedical imaging is consulted by the practitioners. For the systematic sampling on R, the measurement function (MF) is occurred by slicing the three-dimensional object equidistant systematically. The currently used covariogram model in variance approximation proposed by [28,29] is tested for the different measurement functions in a class to see the performance on the variance estimation of systematically sampled R. This study is an extension of [17], and an exact calculation method is proposed to calculate the constant λ(q,N) of confidence interval in the systematic sampling. The exact value of constant λ(q,N) is examined for the different measurement functions as well. As a result, it is observed from the simulation that the proposed MF should be used to check the performances of the variance approximation and the constant λ(q,N). Synthetic data can support the results of real data.

This work presents a novel approach for the study of the movement of droplets on inclined surfaces under the influence of gravity and chemical heterogeneities. The developed numerical methodology uses data-driven modeling to extend the applicability limits of an analytically derived reduced-order model for the contact line velocity. More specifically, while the reduced-order model is able to capture the effects of the chemical heterogeneities to a satisfactory degree, it does not account for gravity. To alleviate this shortcoming, datasets generated from direct numerical simulations are used to train a data-driven model for the contact line velocity, which is based on the Fourier neural operator and corrects the reduced-order model predictions to match the reference solutions. This hybrid surrogate model, which comprises of both analytical and data-driven components, is then integrated in time to simulate the droplet movement, offering a speedup of five orders of magnitude compared to direct numerical simulations. The performance of this hybrid model is quantified and assessed in different wetting scenarios, by considering various inclination angles and values for the Bond number, demonstrating the accuracy of the predictions as long as the adopted parameters lie within the ranges considered in the training dataset.

The Solvency II regulatory framework specifies procedures and parameters for determining solvency capital requirements (SCRs) for insurance companies. The proposed standard SCR calculations involve two steps. The Value–at–Risk (VaR) of each risk driver is measured and, in a second step, all components are aggregated to the company’s overall SCR, using the Standard Formula. This formula has two inputs: the VaRs of the individual risk drivers and their correlations. The appropriate calibration of these input parameters has been the purpose of various Quantitative Impact Studies that have been conducted during recent years. This paper demonstrates that the parameter calibration for the equity–risk module—overall, with about 25%, the most significant risk component—is seriously flawed, giving rise to spurious and highly erratic parameter values. As a consequence, an implementation of the Standard Formula with the currently proposed calibration settings for equity–risk is likely to produce inaccurate, biased and, over time, highly erratic capital requirements.

The role played by non extensive thermodynamics in physical systems has been under intense debate for the last decades. With many applications in several areas, the Tsallis statistics has been discussed in details in many works and triggered an interesting discussion on the most deep meaning of entropy and its role in complex systems. Some possible mechanisms that could give rise to non extensive statistics have been formulated along the last several years, in particular a fractal structure in thermodynamics functions was recently proposed as a possible origin for non extensive statistics in physical systems. In the present work we investigate the properties of such fractal thermodynamical system and propose a diagrammatic method for calculations of relevant quantities related to such system. It is shown that a system with the fractal structure described here presents temperature fluctuation following an Euler Gamma Function, in accordance with previous works that evidenced the connections between those fluctuations and Tsallis statistics. Finally, the fractal scale invariance is discussed in terms of the Callan-Symanzik Equation.

Local polynomial smoother (LPS) is a weighted local least-squares nonparametric method. It provides a local Taylor series fit of the data at any location and can be directly used in a differential equation to provide a numerical scheme. In this article, we introduce this new nonparametric idea based on local polynomial smoother, for acquiring the numerical solution of the Bagley-Torvik fractional-order differential equations. Furthermore, this paper will present a numerical comparison with some methods, such as legendre operational matrix and pseudo-spectral method. The efficiency and accuracy of the LPS method are demonstrated by two numerical examples.

The impacts of inflation on international finance are generally reflected in the decline of buying power, risks of investment and deposit loss from currency devaluation. For the purpose of optimized allocation and management of asset values, i.e., annual income or research grants, a framework of a three-level model for static financial management is presented to maximize banking interests, bonuses, and the remaining balance after spending necessary expenditures. Meanwhile, in retrospect to higher-level financial inflation, strategies of dynamic investment, i.e., posing regular tests of flipping coins, exploiting variations of the currency exchange rate, as well as applying the theory of broad money, are presented to increase the appreciation rate of net assets in and post the era of COVID-19. Quantitative evaluations in case studies verify the feasibility of improving the financial situation, indicating broader applications for budgeting and investing when US inflation rate is below 3.0%. Besides, combining approaches of static and dynamic strategies, the expected annual growth rate of individual zero-risk asset investment is predicted as within the range of 8.30~9.62% according to budgeted appreciation on net assets in 12 months, which is capable of overcoming negative impacts from higher level annual inflation, i.e., those as highest as 8.01% in the Year 2022.

We explored the statistics of filtering of simple patterns on a number of deterministic and random graphs as a tractable simple example of information processing in complex systems. In this problem, multiple inputs map to the same output, and the statistics of filtering is represented by the distribution of this degeneracy. For a few simple filter patterns on a ring we obtained an exact solution of the problem and described numerically more difficult filter setups. For each of the filter patterns and networks we found a few numbers essentially describing the statistics of filtering and compared them for different networks. Our results for networks with diverse architectures appear to be essentially determined by two factors: whether the graphs structure is deterministic or random, and the vertex degree. We find that filtering in random graphs produces a much richer statistics than in deterministic graphs. This statistical richness is reduced by increasing the graph’s degree.

This paper presents a quantitative approach to poetry, based on the use of several statistical measures (entropy, informational energy, N-gram, etc.) applied to a few characteristic English writings. We found that English language changes its entropy as time passes, and that entropy depends on the language used and on the author. In order to compare two similar texts, we were able to introduce a statistical method to asses the information entropy between two texts. We also introduced a method of computing the average information conveyed by a group of letters about the next letter in the text. We found a formula for computing the Shannon language entropy and we introduced the concept of N-gram informational energy of a poetry. We also constructed a neural network, which is able to generate Byron-type poetry and to analyze the information proximity to the genuine Byron poetry.

The fitting and modeling of skewed, complex, symmetric, and asymmetric datasets is an exciting research topic in many fields of applied sciences, notably lifetime, medical, and financial sciences. The Heavy tailed Nadarajah Haghighi model is introduced by compounding the heavy tailed family and Nadarajah Haghighi distribution in this paper. The so obtained model has three parameters accounting for the scale and shape of the distribution. The proposed distribution's fundamental characteristics such as probability density, cumulative distribution, hazard rate, and survival functions are provided, and several key statistical properties are established, and several entropy information measures are proposed. The estimation of model parameter is performed via the ML procedure. Further, different simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate the performance of proposed estimator’s using some measure, like the average estimate, the average bias, and associated mean square error. Finally, we are applied our proposed model to analyze three different real datasets. In our illustration, we are compared the practicality of the recommended model with several well-known competing models.

Leishmaniasis is the third most common vector-borne disease and a very important protozoan infection. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is one of the most common types of leishmaniasis infectious diseases with up to 2 million occurrences of new cases each year worldwide. A dynamic transmission multivariate time series model was applied to the data to account for overdispersion and evaluate the effects of three environmental layers as well as seasonality in the data. Furthermore, ecological niche modeling was used to investigate the geographical suitable conditions for cutaneous leishmaniasis using temperature, precipitation and altitude as environmental layers, together with the leishmaniasis presence data. A retrospective analysis of the cutaneous leishmaniasis spatial data in Afghanistan between 2003 and 2009 indicates a steady increase from 2003 to 2007, a small decrease in 2008, then another increase in 2009. An upward trend and regularly repeating patterns of highs and lows was observed related to the months of the year which suggests seasonality effect in the data. Two peaks were observed in the disease occurrence-- January to March and September to December -- which coincide with the cold period. Ecological niche modelling indicates that precipitation has the greatest contribution to the potential distribution of leishmaniasis.

Panel data of our interest consist of a moderate number of panels, while the panels contain a small number of observations. An estimator of common breaks in panel means without a boundary issue for this kind of scenario is proposed. In particular, the novel estimator is able to detect a common break point even when the change happens immediately after the first time point or just before the last observation period. Another advantage of the elaborated change point estimator is that it results in the last observation in situations with no structural breaks. The consistency of the change point estimator in panel data is established. The results are illustrated through a simulation study. As a by-product of the developed estimation technique, a theoretical utilization for correlation structure estimation, hypothesis testing, and bootstrapping in panel data is demonstrated. A practical application to non-life insurance is presented as well.

This study considers an application of the first-order Grey Markov Model to foresee the values of Italian power generation in relation to the available energy sources. The model is used to fit data from the Italian energy system from 2000 to 2022. The integration of Markovian error introduces a random element to the model, which is able now to capture inherent uncertainties and misalignments between the Grey model predictions and the real data. This application provides valuable insights for strategic planning in the energy sector and future developments. The results show good accuracy of the predictions, which provides powerful information for the effective implementation of energy policies concerning the evolution of energy demand in the country. Despite advancements, Italy’s 2032 energy mix will still significantly rely on fossil fuels, emphasizing the need for sustained efforts beyond 2032 to enhance sustainability.

We consider the financial planning problem of a retiree wishing to enter a retirement village at a future uncertain date. The date of entry is determined by the retiree's utility and bequest maximisation problem within the context of uncertain future health states. In addition, the retiree must choose optimal consumption, investment, bequest and purchase of insurance products prior to her full annuitisation on entry to the retirement village. A hyperbolic absolute risk-aversion (HARA) utility function is used to allow necessary consumption for basic living and medical costs. The retirement village will typically require an initial deposit upon entry. This threshold wealth requirement leads to exercising the replication of an American put option at the uncertain stopping time. From our numerical results, active insurance and annuity markets are shown to be a critical aspect in retirement planning.

Categorical variables are common in spatial data analysis. Traditional analytical methods for deriving probabilities of class occurrence, such as kriging-family algorithms, have been hindered by the discrete characteristics of categorical fields. This study introduces the theoretical backgrounds of linear Bayesian updating (LBU) approach for spatial classification through expert system. Transition probabilities are interpreted as expert opinions for updating the prior marginal probabilities of categorical response variables. The main objective of this paper is to present the solid theoretical foundations of LBU and provide a categorical random field prediction method which yields relatively higher classification accuracy compared with conventional Markov chain random field (MCRF) approach. A real-world case study has also been carried out to demonstrate the superiority of our method. Since the LBU idea is originated from aggregating expert opinions and not restricted to conditional independent assumption (CIA), it may prove to be reasonably adequate for analyzing complex geospatial data sets, like remote sensing images or area-class maps.

Hybrid forecasting methods have emerged as a solution surpassing the limitations of both statistical and deep learning approaches. While the first emphasize the significance of variables, they often produce worse forecasting results when compared to newer techniques. In contrast, deep learning models remain enigmatic "black boxes" in terms of interpretability, although achieving better results in forecasting. This article introduces the Comprehensive Cross-Correlation and Lagged Linear Regression Deep Learning (CCLR-DL) framework, designed to harness the best of both approaches, enhancing forecasting accuracy while retaining model interpretability through a feature selection process. CCLR-DL blens cross-correlation analysis, lagged multiple linear regression and granger's causality procedures with deep learning architectures based on LSTM. In a practical demonstration, CCLR-DL was applied to a real database of clinical visits associated to diagnoses in Catalonia, Spain (tracking a population of 6.3 million patients during 10 years). Predicting visits enables the healthcare managers to be ready for future demand shifts. Results demonstrate a consistent and substantial improvement over standalone statistical and deep learning methods when predicting healthcare demand. This hybrid approach not only showcases its efficacy but also offers a promising solution to the challenge of balancing predictive accuracy with model explicability. In this context, this work aims to design and validate a method for feature selection and forecasting of multivariate high dimensional time series datasets not only to improve prediction accuracy but also to model transparency by identifying a subset of variables that improve predictions and G-cause the target variable.

In this paper we consider type II bivariate generalized power series Poisson distribution as a compound Poisson distribution with bivariate generalized power series compounding distribution. We obtain some properties, p.m.f. and conditional distributions. In addition we also give a brief discussion about the multivariate extension of this case. Then we introduce type II bivariate generalized power series Poisson process and consider a bivariate risk model with type II bivariate generalized power series Poisson model as the counting process. For this model we derive distribution of the time to ruin and bounds for the probability of ruin. We obtain partial integro-differential equation for the ruin probabilities and express its bivariate transform through two univariate boundary transforms,where one of the initial capitals is fi xed at zero.

A popular approach to learning about admixture from population genetic data is by computing the allele-sharing summary statistics known as f-statistics. Compared to some methods in population genetics, f-statistics are relatively simple, but interpreting them can still be complicated at times. In addition, f-statistics can be used to build admixture graphs (multi-population trees allowing for admixture events), which provide more explicit and thorough modeling capabilities but are correspondingly more complex to work with. Here, I discuss some of these issues to provide users of these tools with a basic guide for protocols and procedures. My focus is on the kinds of conclusions that can or cannot be drawn from the results of f₄-statistics and admixture graphs, illustrated with real-world examples involving human populations.

To estimate the degree of quantum entanglement, it is important to understand the statistical behavior of functions of spectrum of density matrices such as von Neumann entropy, quantum purity, and entanglement capacity. These entangle- ment metrics over different generic state ensembles have been studied intensively in the literature. As an alternative metric, in this work we study sum of square root spectrum of density matrices, which is relevant to negativity and fidelity in quantum information processing. In particular, we derive the exact mean and vari- ance of sum of square root spectrum over the Bures-Hall generic state ensemble extending known results obtained recently over the Hilbert-Schmidt ensemble.

The Thermodynamic Formalism provides a rigorous mathematical framework to study quantitative and qualitative aspects of dynamical systems. At its core there is a variational principle and corresponding, in its simplest form, to the Maximum Entropy principle, used as a statistical inference procedure to represent, by specific probability measures (Gibbs measures), the collective behaviour of complex systems. This framework has found applications in different domains of scienThe Thermodynamic Formalism provides a rigorous mathematical framework to study quantitative and qualitative aspects of dynamical systems. At its core there is a variational principle and corresponding, in its simplest form, to the Maximum Entropy principle, used as a statistical inference procedure to represent, by specific probability measures (Gibbs measures), the collective behaviour of complex systems. This framework has found applications in different domains of science, in particular, has been fruitful and influential in neurosciences. In this article, we review how the Thermodynamic Formalism can be exploited in the field of theoretical neuroscience, as a conceptual and operational tool, to link the dynamics of interacting neurons and the statistics of action potentials from either experimental data or mathematical models. We comment on perspectives and open problems in theoretical neuroscience that could be addressed within this formalism.ce, in particular, has been fruitful and influential in neurosciences. In this article, we review how the Thermodynamic Formalism can be exploited in the field of theoretical neuroscience, as a conceptual and operational tool, to link the dynamics of interacting neurons and the statistics of action potentials from either experimental data or mathematical models. We comment on perspectives and open problems in theoretical neuroscience that could be addressed within this formalism.

In wireless sensor networks (WSNs), each sensor node can estimate the global parameter from the local data in distributed manner. This paper proposed a robust diffusion estimation algorithm based on minimum error entropy criterion with self-adjusting step-size, which are referred to as diffusion MEE-SAS (DMEE-SAS) algorithm. The DMEE-SAS algorithm has fast speed of convergence and is robust against non-Gaussian noise in the measurements. The detailed performance analysis of the DMEE-SAS algorithm is performed. By combining the DMEE-SAS with diffusion minimum error entropy (DMEE) algorithms, an Improving DMEE-SAS algorithm is proposed, in non-stationary environment where tracking is very important. The Improving DMEE-SAS algorithm can avoid insensitivity of the DMEE-SAS algorithm due to the small effective step-size near the optimal estimator, and obtain a fast convergence speed. Numerical simulations are given to verify the effectiveness and advantages of these proposed algorithms.

Background: Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a persistent neurodevelopment disorder frequently co-occurring with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and behavior-related disorders. While behavioral therapy is the first-line option to manage ASD core symptoms, pharmacological therapy is sometimes needed to treat acute problems, such as agitation and aggressive behaviors. Recent guidelines recommend neuroleptics to reduce psychomotor agitation in people with ASD. However, since children with ASD are often drug-resistant, alternative treatments are often justified. Reports from literature showed that intra-venous valproate (IV-VPA) can be effective in reducing agitation in psychiatric patients, with lower frequency of adverse events compared to convention-al treatments. However, since findings are occasionally inconsistent, IV-VPA is not an approved option in clinical psychiatry. We aim at improving the knowledge on the IV-VPA treatment option in emergency psychiatry in the pediatric age. Methods: We report the case of a 11-year-old boy suffering from a complex neurodevelopmental condition, who experienced a psychotic episode with severe aggressive and disruptive behaviors, successfully treated with IV-VPA. Besides, we conducted an up-dated literature review on this topic. Conclusion: In our case, first-line therapies proved to be ineffective. On the contrary, IV-VPA led to a safe and prompt clinical success, in line with other reports. Based on our literature review, IV-VPA can be highly effective and can reduce the risk of adverse events that frequently occur with the use of high-dose standard medications in emergency psychiatry.

The late universe contains a wealth of information about fundamental physics and gravity, wrapped up in non-Gaussian fields. To make use of as much information as possible it is necessary to go beyond two-point statistics. Rather than going to higher order N-point correlation functions, we demonstrate that the probability distribution function (PDF) of spheres in the matter field (a one-point function) already contains a significant amount of this non-Gaussian information. The matter PDF dissects different density environments which are lumped together in two-point statistics, making it particularly useful for probing modifications of gravity or expansion history. Our approach in Cataneo et. al. 2021 extends the success of Large Deviation Theory for predicting the matter PDF in ΛCDM in these “extended” cosmologies. A Fisher forecast demonstrates the information content in the matter PDF via constraints for a Euclid-like survey volume combining the 3D matter PDF with the 3D matter power spectrum. Adding the matter PDF halves the uncertainties on parameters in an evolving dark energy model, relative to the power spectrum alone. Additionally, the matter PDF contains enough non-linear information to substantially increase the detection significance of departures from General Relativity, with improvements up to six times the power spectrum alone. This analysis demonstrates that the matter PDF is a promising non-Gaussian statistic for extracting cosmological information, particularly for beyond ΛCDM models.

The last-mile logistics in cities have become an indispensable part of the urban logistics system. This study aims to explore the effective selection of last-mile logistics nodes to enhance the efficiency of logistics distribution, strengthen the corporate distribution image, and further reduce corporate operating costs and alleviate urban traffic congestion. This paper proposes a clustering-based approach to identify urban logistics nodes from the perspective of geographic information fusion. This method comprehensively considers several key indicators, including the coverage, balance, and urban traffic conditions of logistics distribution. Additionally, we employed a greedy algorithm to identify secondary nodes around primary nodes, thus constructing an effective nodal network. To verify the practicality of this model, we conducted an empirical simulation study using the logistics demand and traffic conditions in the Xianlin District of Nanjing. This research not only identified the locations of primary and secondary logistics nodes but also provided a new perspective for constructing the urban last-mile logistics system, enriching the academic research related to logistics node construction. The results of this study are of significant theoretical and practical importance for optimizing urban logistics networks, enhancing logistics efficiency, and promoting the improvement of urban traffic conditions.

This paper is motivated by spatio-temporal pattern in the occurrence of Leishmaniasis in Afghanistan and the relatively high number of zero counts. We hold the view that correlations that arise from spatial and temporal sources are inherently distinct. Our method decouples these two sources of correlations, there are at least two advantages in taking this approach. First, it circumvents the need to inverting a large correlation matrix, which is a commonly encountered problem in spatio-temporal analyses. Second, it simplifies the modelling of complex relationships such as anisotropy, which would have been extremely difficult or impossible if spatio-temporal correlations were simultaneously considered. We identify three challenges in the modelling of a spatio-temporal process: (1) accommodation of covariances that arise from spatial and temporal sources; (2) choosing the correct covariance structure and (3) extending to situations where a covariance is not the natural measure of association. Moreover, because the data covers a period that overlaps with the US invasion of Afghanistan, the high number of zero counts may be the result of no disease incidence or lapse of data collection. To resolve this issue, a model truncated at zero built on a foundation of the generalized estimating equations was proposed.

Asymptotic theories for fractional cointegrations have been extensively studied in the context of time series data, with numerous empirical studies and tests developed. However, most of the previously developed testing procedures for fractional cointegration were primarily designed for time series data. This paper proposes a generalized residual-based test for fractionally cointegrated panels with fixed effects. The test development is based on bivariate panel series with the regressor assumed to be fixed across cross-sectional units. The proposed test procedure accommodates any integration order between [0,1], and it is asymptotically normal under the null hypothesis. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate that the test exhibits better size and power compared to a similar residual-based test across varying sample sizes.

The study delves into the multifaceted landscape of human-macaque conflict within temple ecosystems, with a specific focus on Bonnet Macaques. In the context of intertwined religious, cultural, and social values, understanding public attitudes towards these commensal species becomes pivotal. The research aims to decipher the socio-economic factors that shape perceptions of human-monkey conflict within temples and to explore public attitudes within sacred groves. To achieve these objectives, a comprehensive questionnaire was administered through household interviews to 100 residents living within both a 1 sq. km and a 2 sq. km radius of the study area, ensuring direct participant interaction. The survey, taking approximately 40 minutes per participant, examined six variables, including occupation, religion, and annual income. The data collected was analysed using SPSS ver. 24 software, employing the chi-square test of independence to explore associations between categorical variables. The findings revealed that occupation and religion emerged as influential factors in shaping perceptions of Bonnet Macaques as problematic. While annual income hinted at significance, age, education, and knowledge of Kysannur Forest Disease (KFD) did not significantly impact Bonnet Macaque perception. Interestingly, age emerged as a significant factor influencing the perception of the monkeys' religious significance, whereas only education and religious affiliation impacted feeding practices towards the monkeys. Surprisingly, other demographic variables such as age, gender, occupation, and income showed no significant influence on monkey feeding practices. These results underscore the intricate interplay of socioeconomic, cultural, and religious factors in shaping public attitudes and behaviours towards Bonnet Macaques. The study further sheds light on the impact of education and religious affiliation on feeding practices, emphasizing the need for nuanced conservation strategies. Recognizing these complexities is crucial for developing culturally sensitive conservation efforts. By acknowledging the influential factors identified in this research, conservation strategies can be tailored to specific communities, fostering harmonious coexistence between humans and Bonnet Macaques in temple ecosystems. This nuanced approach ensures that conservation efforts are not only effective but also respectful of the diverse socio-cultural contexts within which they are implemented.

SStatistical characteristics of the wind speed in Samaria region of Israel have been analyzed by processing 11 years of wind data provided by the Israeli Meteorological Service, recorded at 10 m height above the ground. The cumulative mean wind speed at measurement height was shown to be 4.53 m/s with standard deviation of 2.32 m/s. Prevailing wind direction is shown to be char-acterized by cumulative mean azimuth of 226° with standard deviation of 79.76°. The results were extrapolated to 70-meter height in order to estimate wind characteristics at hub height of a me-dium-scale wind turbine. Moreover, Weibull distribution parameters were calculated annually, monthly and seasonally, demonstrating a good match with histogram-based statistical repre-sentations. Shape parameter of the Weibull distribution was shown to reside within a narrow range of 1.93 to 2.15, allowing us to assume a Rayleigh distribution, thus simplifying wind tur-bines energy yield calculations. The novelty of the current paper is related to gathering wind statistics for a certain area (Samaria) we are not aware of any published statistics regarding wind velocity and direction in this area. The data may be interesting for potential regional wind energy development in which the obtained Weibull distribution can be used in calculations of expected power generation of particular turbines with known power dependence on velocity. We also point out that the fact that realistic wind velocity statistics is well described by an analytic formula (Weibull distribution) is not trivial, and in fact the fit may have been poor.

Over the last few years, Earth Observation (EO) data has shifted towards increased use to produce official statistics, particularly in the agriculture sector. National statistics offices worldwide, including in Asia and the Pacific, are expanding their use of EO data to produce agricultural statistics such as crop classification, yield estimation, irrigation mapping, and crop loss estimation. The advances in image classification, such as pixel-based and phenology-based classifications, and machine learning create new opportunities for researchers to analyze EO data applied to agriculture statistics. However, it requires the ground truth (GT) data because classification result mainly depends on the quality of GT. Therefore, in this study, we introduced a random sampling approach to design and collect GT data using EO imagery and ancillary data. As a result of data collection, GT data improve the algorithms and validates classification results. Nevertheless, despite the importance of GT data, they are rarely disseminated as a data product in themselves. Thus, this results in an untapped opportunity to share GT data as a global public good, and improved use of survey and census data as a source of GT data.

The interest in random fiber lasers (RFLs), first demonstrated one decade ago, is still growing and their basic characteristics have been studied by several authors. RFLs are open systems that present instabilities in the intensity fluctuations due to the energy exchange among their non-orthogonal quasi-modes. In this work, we present a review of the recent investigations on the output characteristics of a continuous-wave erbium-doped RFL, with emphasis on the statistical behavior of the emitted intensity fluctuations. A progression from the Gaussian to Lévy and back to the Gaussian statistical regime was observed by increasing the excitation laser power from below to above the RFL threshold. By analyzing the RFL output intensity fluctuations, the probability density function of emission intensities was determined, and its correspondence with the experimental results was identified, enabling a clear demonstration of the analogy between the RFL phenomenon and the spin-glass phase transition. A replica-symmetry-breaking phase above the RFL threshold was characterized and the glassy behavior of the emitted light was established. We also discuss perspectives for future investigations on RFL systems.

We investigate and discuss in detail the structure of the restricted singular value decomposition for a tensor triplet under t-product (T-RSVD). The algorithm is provided with a numerical example illustrating the main result. For applications, we consider color image watermarking processing with T-RSVD.

This paper presents a statistical approach to identify the underlying roughness characteristics in synthetic aperture radar (SAR) intensity data. The physical modeling of this kind of data allows the use of the Gamma distribution in the presence of fully-developed speckle, i.e., when there are infinitely many independent backscatterers per resolution cell, and none dominates the return. Such areas are often called ``homogeneous'' or ``textureless'' regions. The GI0 distribution is also a widely accepted law for heterogeneous and extremely heterogeneous regions, i.e., areas where the fully-developed speckle hypotheses do not hold. We propose three test statistics to distinguish between homogeneous and inhomogeneous regions, i.e., between gamma and GI0 distributed data, both with a known number of looks. The first test statistic uses a bootstrapped non-parametric estimator of Shannon entropy, providing a robust assessment in uncertain distributional assumptions. The second test uses the classical coefficient of variation (CV). The third test uses an alternative form of estimating the CV based on the ratio of the mean absolute deviation from the median to the median. We apply our test statistic to create maps of \(p\)-values for the homogeneity hypothesis. Finally, we show that our proposal, the entropy-based test, outperforms existing methods, such as the classical CV and its alternative variant, in identifying heterogeneity when applied to both simulated and actual data.

Smallsats are becoming the predominant electro-optical Earth observation (EO) imaging platforms. While atmospheric correction of smallsat data enhances its utility, an established pathway to do so may constrain accuracy and utility. The alternative, Closed-form Method for Atmospheric Correction (CMAC), developed for smallsat application provides surface reflectance derived solely from scene statistics. In a prior paper, CMAC closely agreed with Land Surface Reflectance Code (LaSRC) software for correction of the four VNIR bands of Landsat-8/9 images for conditions of low to moderate atmospheric effect over quasi-invariant warehouse-industrial targets. Those results were accepted as surrogate surface reflectance to support analysis of CMAC and LaSRC reliability for surface reflectance retrieval in two contrasting environments: shortgrass prairie and barren desert. Reliability was defined and tested through a null hypothesis: the same top-of-atmosphere reflectance under the same atmospheric condition will provide the same estimate of surface reflectance. Evaluated against the prior surrogate surface reflectance, the results found decreasing error with increasing wavelength for both methods. From 58 comparisons across the four bands, LaSRC average absolute error ranged from 0.59% (NIR) to 50.30% (blue). CMAC error was well constrained from 0.01% (NIR) to 0.98% (blue) sustaining the null hypothesis for reliability.

People often make mistakes, so we try to automate every aspect of our lives. Sports is no exception. While just over a decade ago humans were analyzing games, today this is being done by artificial intelligence. Due to rapid development over the past decade, neural networks are now faster, more accurate, and in some areas even better than their human counterparts. In this paper, we present an algorithm that can detect player statistics during an NBA broadcast. It also helps users better understand the game and the use of augmented reality. The algorithm detects players on the court, tracks their movements, and assigns them to their respective teams. Using homography estimation, we transform the players’ positions from a three-dimensional space in the video to a two-dimensional space on the playing field plane. We define a new algorithm that predicts the players’ actions and their statistics. The results show that the proposed method can effectively identify the players, their respective teams, and their positions. It can also analyze their actions with high accuracy.

This study contended that learning statistics and its rudiments were perceived as complicated compared to some other courses offered at the university level. Further, this investigation contested the existence of statistics anxiety among postgraduate students in an in-site university setting. Relationships and differences were determined in this study utilizing the constructs of antecedents of statistics anxiety namely academic procrastination, perfectionism, and gender. The objectives were (1) to establish the relationship between academic procrastination and statistics anxiety; (2) to find out the relationship between perfectionism and statistics anxiety; and (3) to investigate the differences between gender and statistics anxiety. The data from randomly selected 136 postgrad students (Kampala International University, Uganda) referring to dispositional (procrastination and perfectionism) and environmental antecedents (gender) and statistics anxiety were scientifically elicited, processed and analyzed utilizing the quantitative- post positivist’s research paradigm model. The findings revealed a positive but insignificant relationship between academic procrastination and statistics anxiety; a significant adverse correlation between perfectionism and statistics anxiety; an insignificant positive correlation existed between gender and statistics anxiety, and differences in statistics anxiety between the female and male students existed. Notably from the results then, academic procrastination did not significantly affect the students’ statistics anxiety; the students with higher levels of perfectionism tended to have lower levels of statistics anxiety while the levels of statistics anxiety among the female students were slightly greater than that of the male students.

In addition to their importance in statistical thermodynamics, probabilistic entropy measurements are crucial for understanding and analyzing complex systems, with diverse applications in time series and one-dimensional profiles. However, extending these methods to two- and three-dimensional data still requires further development. In this study, we present a new method to classify spatiotemporal processes based on entropy measurements. To test and validate the method, we selected four classes of similar processes related to the evolution of random patterns: dynamic colored noises ((i)~white and (ii)~red); (iii)~weak turbulence from reaction-diffusion; (iv)~hydrodynamic fully developed turbulence, and (v)~plasma turbulence from MHD. Considering seven possible ways to measure entropy from a matrix, we present the method as a parameter space composed of the two best separating measures of the five selected classes. The results highlight better combined performance of Shannon Permutation Entropy ($S^p_H$) and a new approach based on Tsallis Spectral Permutation Entropy ($S^s_q$). Notably, our observations reveal the segregation of reaction terms in this $S^p_H \times S^s_q$ space, a result that identifies specific sectors for each class of dynamic process, and can be used to train machine learning models for automatic classification of complex spatiotemporal patterns.

In this paper, we concentrate on the study of the properties of residual Tsallis entropy for order statistics. Order statistics have an important role in reliability structural engineering for example for modelling lifetimes of series and parallel systems. The residual Tsallis entropy of ith order statistic from a continuous distribution function and its deviation from the residual Tsallis entropy of ith order statistics from a uniform distribution is investigated. In a mathematical framework, a method to express the residual Tsallis entropy of the ith order statistic from a continuous distribution in terms of the residual Tsallis entropy of the ith order statistic from a uniform distribution is provided. This approach may provide insight into the behavior and properties of the residual Tsallis entropy for order statistics. Further, we study the monotonicity properties of the residual Tsallis entropy of order statistics under dierent conditions. By studying these properties, deeper understanding of the relationship between the position of order statistics and the resulting residual Tsallis entropy is gained.

Count data are used in many fields of practice, especially Poisson distribution as a popular choice for the marginal process distribution. If these counts exhibit serial dependence, a popular approach is to use a Poisson INAR(1) model to describe the autocorrelation structure of process. In this paper, the explicit formulas are proposed to evaluate performance characteristics of Double Moving Average control chart (DMA) for Integer valued autoregressive of serial dependence Poisson process. The characteristics of the control chart are frequently measured as Average Run Length (ARL) which means that the average of observations are taken before a system is signaled to be out-of-control. These proposed explicit formulas of ARL are simple and easy to implement for practitioner. The numerical results show that the DMA chart performs better than others when the magnitudes of shift are moderate and large.

The discrete element method (DEM) coupled with computational dynamics (CFD) has been considered one of the most sensitive ways of studying fluidized beds. This paper presents gas-solid fluidized bed simulations by use of CFD-DEM. The two-phase interaction is calculated in a way of decoupling. Within the effective neighborhood of the particles, the kernel approximation method is used to calculate the local porosity, thereby calculating the drag force on the particles. At the grid scale, the momentum exchange coefficient is calculated using a two fluid model based method, thereby calculating the source term of the phase interaction in the fluid control equation. The simulated form, size and motion process of the big bubble are all consistent with experimental observations. The simulated solid volume fraction and relative pressure averaged in a horizontal plane at 45 mm above the bottom are in reasonable agreement with the experimental data. The fluctuation of the simulated bed height over time is similar to the experimental measurement results. The reproduction of these qualitative and quantitative results indicates that the proposed method effectively improves simulation performance and accuracy.

In urban areas like Chicago, daily life extends above ground level due to prevalence of high-rise buildings where residents and commuters live and work. This study examines the variation in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations across building stories. PM2.5 levels were measured using PurpleAir sensors, installed between April 8 and May 7, 2023, on floors one, four, six, and nine of an office building in Chicago. Additionally, data were collected from a public outdoor PurpleAir sensor on the fourteenth floor of a condominium located 800 meters away. Results show that outdoor PM2.5 concentrations peak at 14 meters height, then decline by 0.11 μg/m3 per meter elevation, especially noticeable from midnight to 8 AM under stable atmospheric conditions. Indoor PM2.5 concentrations increase steadily by 0.02 μg/m3 per meter elevation, particularly during peak work hours, likely caused by greater infiltration rates at higher floors. Both outdoor and indoor concentrations peak around noon. We find that indoor and outdoor PM2.5 are positively correlated, with indoor levels consistently remaining lower than outside levels. These findings align with previous research suggesting decreasing outdoor air pollution concentrations with increasing height. The study informs decision-making by community members and policymakers regarding air pollution exposure in urban settings.

Objectives: To assess the short-term impact of a single global stretching session on plantar pressures and lumbar range of motion (RoM) over one week in sedentary university students. Design: A randomised controlled trial with two parallel groups. Participants: Sixty-four university students were randomly assigned to a stretching group or control group. The stretching group received a single session of global stretching and the control group remained seated for the same length of time as the stretching session. Main outcome measures: Lumbar RoM and plantar pressures were assessed before, immediately after, 48 hours after, and 7 days after intervention. Results: Group-by-time interaction was significant for lumbar lateral flexion (p = 0.044), right maximal pressure (p = 0.003), left maximal pressure (p = 0.008), right mean pressure (p = 0.025), left mean pressure (p = 0.002), and maximal pressure minus mean pressure in right foot (p = 0.007). The model with plantar pressures showed a significant difference for group-by-time interaction (p = 0.010).Conclusion: Global stretching seems to counteract the ill-effects of prolonged sitting up to seven days with respect to plantar pressure in standing without improving lumbar ROM

In the first part of this article, we discuss and generalize the complete convergence introduced by Hsu and Robbins (1947) to the r-complete convergence introduced by Tartakovsky (1998). We also establish its relation to the r-quick convergence first introduced by Strassen (1967) and extensively studied by Lai (1976). Our work is motivated by various statistical problems, mostly in sequential analysis. As we show in the second part, generalizing and studying these convergence modes is important not only in probability theory but also to solve challenging statistical problems in hypothesis testing and changepoint detection for general stochastic non-i.i.d. models.

The testing of high-dimensional normality has been an important issue and has been intensively studied in literatures, it depends on the Variance-Covariance matrix of the sample, numerous methods have been proposed to reduce the complex of the Variance-Covariance matrix. The principle component analysis(PCA) was widely used since it can project the high-dimensional data into lower dimensional orthogonal space, and the normality of the reduced data can be evaluated by Jarque-Bera(JB) statistic on each principle direction. We propose two combined statistics, the summation and the maximum of one-way JB statistics, upon the independency of each principle direction, to test the multivariate normality of data in high dimensions. The performance of the proposed methods is illustrated by the empirical power of the simulated data of normal data and non-normal data. Two real examples show the validity of our proposed methods.

In this paper, we propose a pre-configured error pattern ordered statistics decoding (PEPOSD) algorithm and discuss its application to short cyclic redundancy check (CRC)-polar codes. Unlike the traditional OSD that changes the most reliable independent symbols, we regard the decoding process as testing the error patterns, like guessing random additive noise decoding (GRAND). Also, the pre-configurator referred from ordered reliability bits (ORB) GRAND can better control the range and testing order of EPs. Offline-online structure can accelerate the decoding process. Additionally, we also introduce two orders to optimize the search order for testing EPs. Compared with CRC-aided OSD and list decoding, PEPOSD can achieve a better trade-off between accuracy and complexity.

Channel estimation is an important module to enhance the performance of orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems. However, the presence of a large amount of noise in multipath fading time-varying channels significantly affects the channel estimation accuracy and thus the recovery quality of the received signals. Therefore, this paper proposes a double-threshold (DT) channel estimation method based on adaptive frame statistics (AFS). The method first adaptively determines the number of statistical frames based on the temporal correlation of the received signals, and preliminarily detects the channel structure by analyzing the distribution characteristics of multipath sampling points and noise sampling points during adjacent frames. Subsequently, a multi-frame averaging technique is used to expand the distinction between multipath and noise sampling points. Finally, the DT is designed to better recover the channel based on the preliminary detection results. Simulation results show that the proposed adaptive frame statistics-double-threshold (AFS-DT) channel estimation method is effective and has better performance compared with many existing channel estimation methods.

In this paper we propose the explicit formulas of Average Run Length (ARL) of Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chart for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average: ARIMA (p,d,q) (P, D, Q)_L process with exponential white noise. To check the accuracy, the ARL results were compared with numerical integral equations based on the Gauss-Legendre rule. There was an excellent agreement between the explicit formulas and the numerical solutions. Additionally, we compared the computational time between our explicit formulas for the ARL with the one obtained via Gauss-Legendre numerical scheme. The computational time for the explicit formulas was approximately one second that is much less than the numerical approximations. The explicit analytical formulas for evaluating ARL0 and ARL₁ can produce a set of optimal parameters which depend on the smoothing parameter (λ) and the width of control limit (H), for designing an EWMA chart with a minimum ARL₁.

It was the aim of this study to examine whether the usage of the vaccine COXEVAC® (Ceva Santé Animale) could reduce the consumption of antibiotics in Q-fever-positive dairy farms. Additionally, the effects of other herd-level factors on the consumption of antibiotics were investigated. In this longitudinal cohort study, 36 farms with vaccination and 13 farms without vaccination participated. In all herds, Coxiella burnetii had been directly or indirectly diagnosed. To compare the treatment frequency of antibiotics between the vaccinated group and the non-vaccinated group, the consumption of antibiotics for each farm was collected using the veterinary documents about the application and delivery of antibiotics. To gather detailed information about herd data, nutrition, milking management, housing, and animal health, the farmers were interviewed with the help of a questionnaire. The results suggest that there might be an association between the vaccination against Q fever and a reduced consumption of antibiotics. Neither herd size nor milk yield level influenced the consumption of antibiotics in the study herds. Type of flooring and udder cluster disinfection while milking were associated with a lower and higher therapy frequency, respectively. Further studies are necessary to elucidate the cause-effect relationship between vaccination and the consumption of antibiotics.

We construct a Bayesian estimator for the dilution of a wastewater sample. When wastewater is diluted by rainwater an estimate of the level of dilution is required if we are to normalise sample measurements of disease markers such as SARS-CoV-2 RNA. We consider the situation where flow measurements are available, but will regularly be unreliable because of the action of combined sewer outflows (CSOs) and wastewater storage tanks, which divert wastewater away from treatment plants when the flow is excessive. However, we also have proxies for the flow from various chemical markers (e.g.\ phosphate, ammonium, electrical conductivity), whose level per unit of population is fixed. The new flow estimator has multiple advantages compared to existing procedures: credible intervals for the estimates; optimal weighting of the chemical markers; systematic handling of missing and censored values; and model based smoothing without lags.

We replace the current industry-standard empirical forecasts of oil production from hydrofractured horizontal wells in shales with a statistically and physically robust, accurate and precise approach, using the Bakken shale as an illustration. The proposed oil production forecasting method extends our previous work on predicting fieldwide gas production in the Barnett shale and merges it with our new scaling of oil production in shales. We first divide the existing 14,678 horizontal oil wells in the Bakken into 12 static samples in which depositional settings and completion technologies are similar. For each sample, we construct a purely data-driven P50 well prototype by merging the GEV distribution fits of oil production from appropriate well cohorts. We fit the parameters of our physics-based scaling curve to the statistical well prototypes, and obtain their smooth extrapolations to 30 years on production. By calculating the number of potential wells of each Bakken region, and scheduling future drilling programs, we stack up the extended well prototypes to achieve the most plausible forecast. We predict that Bakken will ultimately produce 5 billion barrels of oil from the existing wells, with the possible increments of 2 and 6 billion barrels from core and noncore areas.

Energy distance is used to eigenvalue distributions in this new Wishart distribution study, providing a new perspective on high-dimensional data. Multivariate statistics relies on Wishart distribution to explain covariance matrices. This analysis shows how degrees of freedom and covariance matrix configurations affect eigenvalue dispersion. We use energy distance based on eigenvalue distributions to assess Wishart distribution differences without the "curse of dimensionality" via extensive simulation simulations. This approach improves measurement accuracy and processing efficiency in distribution comparisons and enables new analytical pathways in scientific fields that need data covariance comprehension. Our results show that degrees of freedom and matrix structure considerably affect energy distances, expanding the theoretical framework and practical applications of statistical models.

– Every physical theory involving quantum fields does require a model of the quantum vacuum. The vacuum associated to quantum gravity must incorporate the prescriptions from both the theory of relativity and quantum physics. In this work, starting from the hypothesis of nucleation of sub-Planckian bubbles from a de Sitter vacuum, we study the necessary conditions to obtain baby universes, black holes and particles. The de Sitter-Planck background is described by an “infinite” Quantum Boltzmann statistics that generates fermions and bosons, and manifests itself as a deformation of the geometry that leads to a generalized uncertainty principle and a unified expression for the generalized Compton wavelength and event horizon size, drawing a connection between quantum black holes and elementary particles, the latter seen as a collective organization of the bubbles of the vacuum described by the generalized Compton wavelength. The quantum thermodynamics of black holes is then outlined and the physical history of each bubble is found to depend on the cosmological constant described in terms of thermodynamic pressure. Finally, a suggestive treatment of the Casimir effect is provided in the de Sitter-Planck background with Quantum-Boltzmann statistics and wormholes are explored as bubble coalescence processes.

Cranberries are rich in bioactive constituents reported to influence a variety of health benefits, ranging from improved immune function and decreased infections to reduced cardiovascular disease and more recently cancer inhibition. A review of cranberry research targeting cancer revealed positive effects of cranberries or cranberry derived constituents against 17 different cancers utilizing a variety of in vitro techniques; whereas, in vivo studies supported the inhibitory action of cranberries toward cancers of the esophagus, stomach, colon, bladder, prostate, glioblastoma and lymphoma. Mechanisms of cranberry-linked cancer inhibition include cellular death induction via apoptosis, necrosis and autophagy; reduction of cellular proliferation; alterations in reactive oxygen species; and modification of cytokine and signal transduction pathways. Given the emerging positive preclinical effects of cranberries, future clinical directions targeting cancer or premalignancy will be considered

Introduction: The association of gene variants for interleukin 6(IL-6) (rs1800796), interleukin 10 (IL-10) (rs1800896) and tumor necrosis factorα (TNFα (rs1800629) with the occurrence of spontaneous preterm birth (PTB) was investigated to determine whether these genetic variants are a risk factor. Materials and methods: 199 blood samples from pregnant women who had given birth prematurely and 200 control blood samples were analyzed to determine single nucleotide polymor-phisms (SNPs) of genes for IL-6 (rs1800796), IL-10 (rs1800896) and TNFα (rs1800629). The control samples were samples from pregnant women with term delivery. Isolation of DNA was per-formed on mini-spin columns according to the manufacturer's protocol. The quality and purity of the isolated DNA were tested using a Qubit 3 fluorometer. Genotyping was performed with an ABI PRISM 7500 SDS using TaqMan SNP genotyping assays. The genotypes obtained were an-alyzed using the 7500 Software v2.3 package. Results: Carriers of the A/A genotype for the rs1800629 of the TNFα gene have 4.81 times greater chance of late-onset PTB compared to carriers of the G/G and A/G genotypes in the recessive inheritance model. The presence of the G/G genotype in the recessive inheritance model compared with the G/A and A/A genotypes for the rs1800896 of the IL-10 gene represents a potentially protective factor, with mothers in the term-birth group having an almost 2-fold lower odds of PTB in general and an almost 10-fold lower odds of early PTB. On the other hand, carriers of the A/G genotype of rs1800896 have a 1.54-fold higher chance of preterm birth in general and a 1.6-fold higher chance of late preterm birth in the super dominant inheritance model compared to the A/A and G/G genotypes in the group of mothers with PTB. In this study, no association was found between PTB and rs1800796 of the IL-6 gene. Conclusion: rs1800629 in mothers was associated with PTB. rs1800896 shows a potentially protective effect for the occurrence of PTB in this study. No association was found between PTB and rs1800796.

In this paper, we consider a class of bilevel programming problems (abbreviated as, BLPP). Exploiting the generalized approximate convexity assumptions, we investigate the relations among the solutions of approximate Minty (respectively, Stampacchia) type variational inequalities (abbreviated as, AMTVI (respectively, ASTVI)), and the local ϵ-quasi solutions of the BLPP. Moreover, by employing the generalized Knaster–Kuratowski–Mazurkiewicz (abbreviated as, KKM)-Fan’s lemma, we derive some existence results for the solutions of approximate variational inequalities (abbreviated as, AVI), namely, AMTVI and ASTVI. A non-trivial example is given to highlight the importance of the established results. To the best of our knowledge, there is no research paper available in the literature that establishes relationships between the AVI and the BLPP under the assumptions of generalized approximate convexity in terms of limiting subdifferentials.

Sword-duels are interesting, from a game-theoretical perspective, as they correspond to sudden-death interactions between players (i.e., defeat means removal from the game), and where victory/defeat depend on not just skill, but also luck. Analyzing probabilities of victory streaks, given a certain level of self and others' skill, is thus relevant for any application domain that can be modeled in the same way. This paper takes inspiration from Miyamoto Musashi, famously undefeated for 61 duels, and implements a Markov-chain Monte-Carlo simulation approach to evaluate this scenario. Results suggest that a 61 victory streak can be probabilistically observed when skill level is roughly 6.5 times that of the average duelist, and with 95\% confidence when skill level is roughly 1000 times that of the average duelist. More generally, this paper provides a method for determining chances of victory streaks in game-theoretical sudden-death encounters, when both "skill" and "luck" contribute to the outcome of the encounter. Specific scenarios can be modeled by modifying the utilized Markov chain and adjusting sampled distributions as required.

Ayurveda as a healthcare system has survived for thousands of years but continues to be dogged by reported lack of efficacy of the treatments in clinical trials. The reported lack of efficacy could be due to a real lack of efficacy (which then contradicts the survival of Ayurveda as a functional medical system enjoying considerable public patronage) or could be attributed to inadequacies in the efforts towards evidence generation or in a larger context the overall scientific conduct of research in Ayurveda. In an effort towards better evidence generation, there is an immediate need for standardizing the design, conduct and reporting of clinical trials of Ayurveda but it is a daunting task. For this effort to benefit the scientific endeavors of Ayurveda researchers, it should allow the researchers to be able to apply Ayurveda’s multi-component, individualized and inherently holistic approach. Statistical principles can benefit this effort. Statistical hypothesis testing (SHT) is central to these statistical principles and also aligns well with conventional scientific principles of evidence generation. Although there are challenges with SHT, good practitioners engaged in it do much more than just apply the mathematical theory behind it. As a particular example, lot of time in clinical trial designing is spent in addressing biases and designing trials prudently by minimizing the effect of such biases. SHT can benefit such an effort objectively. There is a need for Ayurveda researchers to engage deeply and mindfully about biases in study design in order to gain scientific validity and acceptability. The article highlights issues that arise in Ayurveda research, and discusses few ways of dealing with these issues using statistical principles.

In a previous paper\cite{simplified}, a variation of the Collision-time Statistics method was applied to identify the relevant perturbers for line broadening under the action of a constant magnetic field. As discussed, that version was simplified and inadequate for low magnetic field and/or large perturber mass (ions). The purpose of the present work is to augment the previous work, so that such cases, corresponding to the Larmor radius exceeding the maximum impact parameter, can be handed efficiently. The results may also be used to construct analytic, i.e. impact/unified models under the usual assumptions in these models.

The statistics of grain displacements probability distribution function (pdf) during the shear of a granular medium displays an unusual dependence with the shear increment upscaling as recently evinced [Phys. Rev. Lett. 115 238301 2015]. Basically, the pdf of grain displacements has clear nonextensive ($q$-Gaussian) features at small scales but approaches to Gaussian characteristics at large shear window scales -- the granulence effect. Here, we extend this analysis studying a larger system (more grains considered in the experimental setup) which exhibits a severe shear band fault during the macroscopic straining. We calculate the pdf of grain displacements and the dependency of the $q$-statistics with the shear increment. This analysis have shown a singular behavior of $q$ at large scales, displaying a non-monotonic dependence with the shear increment. By means of an independent image analysis, we demonstrate that this singular non-monotonicity could be associated with the emergence of a shear band within the confined system. We show that the exact point where the $q$-value inverts its tendency coincides with the emergence of a giant percolation cluster along the system, caused by the shear band. We believe that this original approach using Statistical Mechanics tools to identify shear bands can be a very useful piece to solve the complex puzzle of the rheology of dense granular systems.

The origins of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) date back to the emergence of ‘graph theory’ in the early 1700s (Biggs et al. 1986). DAGs are conceptual or literal, diagrammatic representations of causal paths between variables which are constructed – as their name suggests – on the basis of two over-riding principles: first, that all causal paths are ‘directed’ (i.e. for each pair of variables, only one can represent the cause, while the other must be its consequence); and second, that no direct cyclical paths, or indirect cyclical pathways (comprising sequences of consecutive paths) are allowed, such that no consequence can be considered its own direct or indirect cause (hence ‘acyclic’; Law et al., 2012). As such DAGs reflect the knowledge, presumptions, assumptions and/or speculation of the analyst(s) concerned regarding the causal relationships between each of the variables included therein. Current convention dictates that variables are represented as nodes/vertices, and that any causal paths between variables are represented as directed arcs/edges/lines, often in the form of arrows (see Figure 1). Although each arc indicates the presence and direction of a known/presumed/assumed/speculative causal relationship between the two variables concerned, drawing an arc does not require the sign, magnitude, precision or shape of the relationship to be known or declared (Tennant et al., 2021). In this respect, DAGs provide a simple, uncomplicated, accessible and entirely nonparametric approach for postulating causal relationships amongst any variables of interest even when these are uncertain, unknown or entirely speculative (Ellison, 2020). Nonetheless, as a result of the parametric constraints imposed by the presence/absence of possible arcs within any given DAG, these also reflect and support a number of more sophisticated statistical applications which make it possible to use DAGs to inform the design of multivariable statistical models that reflect the causal structure(s) involved – albeit without the need to know or understand the mathematical technicalities on which these are based (Lewis and Kuerbis, 2016). These features make DAGs attractive cognitive, educational and analytical tools for strengthening the epistemological, theoretical and empirical basis of causal inference, and there has been a recent proliferation in the use of DAGs across a range of applied scientific disciplines (e.g. Knight and Winship, 2013), and an associated upsurge in analytical methods training (e.g. Elwert, 2011; Gilthorpe, 2017; Hernán 2018; Roy, 2021; Hünermund, 2021). This Chapter reflects on a decade of delivering medical statistics training to undergraduate medical students at the University of Leeds between 2012-2021 in which the third year research, evaluation and special studies module (‘RESS3’) has used DAGs to support the development of applied statistical skills relevant to the extended student-selected research and evaluation projects (ESREP) students undertake in their fourth and final years (Ellison, 2021; Ellison et al., 2014a,b). Based on successive iterations of the structure and content of the RESS3 module, together with notes made during formal and informal planning and review meetings with module leads, lecturers, tutors and students, we draw on the claims and criticisms made of DAGs in the epidemiological literature to identify a number of explicit strengths (and associated, often implicit. weaknesses) that are central to their use in prediction and causal inference modelling. While using DAGs requires (and benefits from) a clear understanding of their non-parametric nature and parametric implications, the weaknesses of DAGs seem likely to reflect both: the challenges inherent in the modelling of data generating processes when these are imperfectly understood; and troublesome cognitive and heuristic tendencies common to all analytical tools – in which the tool facilitates the task in hand by reducing the necessity (and benefits of) exploring uncertainties and identifying assumptions. These, more epistemological considerations appear particularly challenging for medical undergraduates to grasp (Ellison, 2021), but also appear poorly understood by many established analysts and clinical epidemiologists (Ellison, 2020).

This study explores the correlation between payment statistics and sector-wise Gross Value Added (GVA) in the Indian economy from 2011 to 2022, assessing the importance of payment and settlement systems. Through regression analysis, the impact of payment statistics on GVA across diverse sectors is assessed. The results indicate that, during the specified period, payment statistics exhibit a significant influence on sector-wise GVA. These findings underscore the pivotal role of payment and settlement systems in the Indian financial landscape.

Every biological image contains quantitative data that can be used to test hypotheses about how patterns were formed, what entities are associated with one another, and whether standard mathematical methods inform our understanding of biological phenomena. In particular, spatial point distributions and polygonal tessellations are particularly amendable to analysis with a variety of graph theoretic, computational geometric, and spatial statistical tools such as: Voronoi Polygons; Delaunay Triangulations; Perpendicular Bisectors; Circumcenters; Convex Hulls; Minimal Spanning Trees; Ulam Trees; Pitteway Violations; Circularity; Clark-Evans spatial statistics; Variance to Mean Ratios; Gabriel Graphs; and, Minimal Spanning Trees. Furthermore, biologists have developed a number of empirically related correlations for polygonal tessellations such as: Lewis’s Law (the number of edges of convex polygons are positively correlated with the areas of these polygons): Desch’s Law (the number of edges of convex polygons are positively correlated with the perimeters of these polygons); and Errara’s Law (daughter cell areas should be roughly half that of their parent cells’ areas). We introduce a new Pitteway Law that the number of sides of the convex polygons in a Voronoi tessellation of biological epithelia is proportional to the minimal interior angle of the convex polygons as angles less than 90 degrees result in Pitteway violations of the Delaunay dual of the Voronoi tessellation.

The study of precipitation amount at different time scales constitutes an important issue in climate research and risk assessment. When dealing with daily totals, a frequent but sometimes underestimated problem is at what time the observation day begins. The choice of different starting times may lead to incompatibility between stations and incorrect identification of extreme events. In this work, the problem of temporal misalignment between precipitation datasets characterized by different starting time of the observation day is analyzed. The most widely used adjustment methods (1day and uniform shift) and two methods based on reanalysis (NOAA and ERA5) are evaluated in terms of temporal alignment, precipitation statistics and percentile distributions. As test series, the precipitation amount collected from 9 a.m. local time (09 LT) on the previous day to 09 LT on the target day (9-9 datasets) of the Padua and nearby stations in the period 1993-2022 have been selected. Results show that the reanalysis-based methods, in particular ERA5, outperform the others in temporal alignment, regardless the station. But, for the periods in which reanalysis data are not available, “1day” method, which shifts the daily amount back one calendar day, and “unif” method, which distributes uniformly the daily total from a 2-day moving window surrounding the target date, can be considered valid alternatives. On the other side, concerning the precipitation statistics, the reanalysis-based methods are not the best option, as they increase the precipitation frequency and reduce the mean value over wet days, NOAA much more than ERA5. Nevertheless, the uniform method provides a larger deviation from the original daily series. The use of the series of a station nearby the target one, which is mandatory in case of missing data, gives similar or better results than applying any adjustment method to the 9-9 series. General conclusions can hardly be drawn as they depend on the method and station. For the Padua dataset, the analysis was repeated at monthly and seasonal resolution. In general, the adjustment series show the most relevant changes in the precipitation statistics in summer and less temporal alignment with the original series in summer and autumn, the two seasons mainly affected by heavy rains in Padua. Finally, the percentiles distribution, analyzed for all the methods and stations, indicates that any adjustment method underestimates the percentile values, except ERA5. Only Legnaro, the station most correlated with Padua, gives results like ERA5.

With the increase in life expectancy and consequent aging of the world’s population, the prevalence of many neurodegenerative diseases is increasing, without concomitant improvement in diagnostics and therapeutics. These diseases share neuropathological hallmarks, including mitochondrial dysfunction. In fact, as mitochondrial alterations appear prior to neuronal cell death at an early phase of the disease onset, the study and modulation of mitochondrial alterations rise as promising strategies to predict and prevent neurotoxicity and neuronal cell death before the onset of cell viability alterations. In this work, differentiated SH-SY5Y cells were treated with the mitochondrial-targeted neurotoxicants 6-hydroxydopamine and rotenone. These compounds were used at different concentrations and for different time points to understand the similarities and differences in their mechanisms of action. To accomplishing this, data on mitochondrial parameters was acquired and analyzed using unsupervised (hierarchical clustering) and supervised (decision tree) machine learning methods. Both biochemical and computational analyses resulted in an evident distinction between the neurotoxic effects of 6-hydroxydopamine and rotenone, specifically for the highest concentrations of both compounds.

Background: COVID-19 pandemic has pulled us all a few steps back, were we never shake hands or hug each other when we meet our friends and family after a gap, but instead we greet them by saying Namaste and joining our hands together. As we all know, COVID-19 spreads through air and the only way to shield ourselves is by maintaining a safe distance from one another. Methodology: In order to conduct a meta-analysis on the number of COVID-19 cases in Kerala and India, the data was retrieved from various sites hosted by the government bodies. The data for analysis was collected from May 2020 to July 2020. The average number of days required to reach every 5000 fresh cases were also calculated using this data. COVID-19 has affected all the economy holistically regardless of financial, behavioral, or societal aspects. Conclusion: Lifting of the lockdown in a step by step process keeping in mind the necessities for the nation was a thoughtful act, but the people who mistook this opportunity and did not remain in quarantine after coming from abroad was recognized as the reasons behind the sudden and uncontrolled rise in the number of COVID-19 cases in Kerala, India. The government authorities had no other option but to lift the restrictions to reduce the economic burdens that had already affected the daily wage worker and farmers prompting them to give up their lives.

The aim of this study is to investigate, by means of experimental measurements and full-wave simulations, the dominant factors for the very high-resolution (VHR) radar image speckles from exponential correlated rough surfaces. A Ka-band radar system was used to collect the return signal from such a surface sample fabricated by 3D printing, and that signal was further processed into images at different resolution scales, where the image samples were obtained by horizontally turning around the surface sample. To cross-validate the results and to further discuss the VHR speckle properties, full wave simulations by full 3D Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) method were conducted with 1600 realizations for the speckle analysis. At the considered very high resolution, speckle statistics show divergence from the fully developed Rayleigh distribution. The factors that impact on the high-resolution speckle properties from exponential correlated rough surface, are analyzed in views of the equivalent number of scatterers theory and scattering scales, respectively. From the data results and extended discussions, it is evident that both of the above factors matter for VHR speckle of backscattering, from the exponential correlated rough surface as a good representative for the ground surface.

Statistical modeling lies at the heart of product design and development throughout numerous engineering disciplines, especially since processing large amounts of data has become increasingly ubiquitous. While mathematical statistics provide elegant guidance pertaining to the question of whether or not some particular underlying modeling assumptions are justified and appropriate, when pursuing a more comprehensive assessment of product design and development other considerations often increase in significance. Therefore, we will examine and analyze the tedious interactions and implications of statistical modeling choices and product liability exposure. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to draw attention to and explore some often overlooked or oversimplified dangers and pitfalls that enter the equation when product design heavily relies on statistical modeling. In particular, through a diligent analysis of both statistical and legal aspects we will explore how statistically optimal procedures may yield far from optimal outcomes in terms of product liability when applied to actual real life problems and why suboptimal nonparametric or robust approaches may constitute better alternatives.

Counter-current spontaneous imbibition of water is a critical oil-recovery mechanism. In the laboratory, the Amott test is a widely used technique to assess efficacy of brine imbibition into oil-saturated core plugs. The classic Amott-cell methodology was designed to estimate ultimate oil recovery, but not the recovery dynamics that provides essential information about the imbibition mechanisms. Retention of oil droplets at the external core surface and delayed onset of oil production are the two key artifacts of the classic Amott experiment. This retention, referred to here as the ``external-surface oil holdup effect'', often results in stepwise recovery curves that obscure true dynamics of spontaneous imbibition. To address these holdup drawbacks of the classic Amott method, we modified the Amott cell and experimental procedure. For the first time, using water-wet Indiana limestone cores saturated with brine and mineral oil, we showed that our improvements of the Amott method enabled accurate and reproducible measurements of oil-recovery dynamics. We used the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) statistics to describe oil-production histories from water-wet heterogeneous limestone cores with finite initial water saturations, for the first time. We demonstrated that our four-parameter GEV model accurately described the recovery dynamics, and that optimal GEV parameter values systematically reflected the key characteristics of the oil-rock system, such as oil viscosity and rock permeability. These findings gave us a more fundamental understanding of spontaneous, counter-current imbibition mechanisms and insights into what constitutes a predictive model of counter-current water imbibition into oil-saturated rocks with finite initial water saturation.

In the rapidly evolving field of real estate economics, the prediction of house prices continues to be a complex challenge, intricately tied to a multitude of socio-economic factors. However, traditional predictive models have often overlooked the spatial interdependencies that play a vital role in shaping housing prices. This study applies Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) on Open Statistics Knowledge Graphs to model spatial dependencies and predict house prices across Scotland’s 2011 data zones. To this end, integrated statistical indicators are retrieved from the official Scottish Open Government Data portal. The three representative GNN algorithms employed - ChebNet, GCN, and GraphSAGE - demonstrate higher prediction accuracy than traditional models, including the tabular-based XGBoost and a simple Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). In addition, local and global explainability are employed to increase transparency and trust in the predictions made by the most accurate GNN - GraphSAGE. The global feature importance is determined by a logistic regression surrogate model while the local, region-level understanding of the GNN predictions is achieved through the use of GNNExplainer. Explainaibility results are compared with those from a previous work that applied the XGBoost machine learning algorithm and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) explainability framework on the same dataset. Interestingly, both global surrogate model and the SHAP approach underscored the Comparative Illness Factor, a health indicator, and the ratio of detached dwellings as the most crucial features in the global explainability. In the case of local explanations, while both methods showed similar results, the GNN approach provided a richer, more comprehensive understanding of the predictions for two specific data zones.

This paper examines patterns and drivers of energy choices for cooking and lighting in South Africa using the Statistics South African (StatSA, 2022) Census data at district municipality (districts) levels. Employing spatial and regression analysis, the findings show that electricity is the main source of energy for cooking across South Africa. However, there is a large swathe of the country covering districts, such as Vhembe and Mopani in Limpopo, eastern Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal, and northern Eastern Cape provinces, where wood is the predominantly used energy type for cooking. There is almost uniform use of gas for cooking across the country. Electricity is the main energy source for lighting in South Africa. It is followed by candles, likely explained by loadshedding, and surprisingly solar energy a distant third. In terms of drivers, dwelling types play statistically significant role in what energy type to use for cooking and lighting, albeit differently. In terms of lighting, formal dwelling is positively related to the choice of electricity and informal dwelling is related to the choice of electricity (negatively) and candles (positively) for lighting. The level of higher education, household size, and the dependency ratio have varied statistically significant roles in the choice of either energy type for cooking or lighting by formal, informal, and traditional dwellers. Relevant policy prescriptions that are needed to engender the country towards sustainable energy use, diversification of energy types from electricity to other renewable energy sources, such as solar, and reduction in over-dependency on the biomass energy sources, such as paraffin and wood, especially in rural and poor districts, are proposed.

Evidence-based medicine (EBM) is in crisis, in part due to bad methods, which are understood as misuse of statistics that is considered correct in itself. This article exposes two related common misconceptions in statistics, the effect size (ES) based on correlation (CBES) and a misconception of contingency tables (MCT). CBES is a fallacy based on misunderstanding of correlation and ES and confusion with 2 × 2 tables, which makes no distinction between gross crosstabs (GCTs) and contingency tables (CTs). This leads to misapplication of Pearson’s Phi, designed for CTs, to GCTs and confusion of the resulting gross Pearson Phi, or mean-square effect half-size, with the implied Pearson mean square contingency coefficient. Generalizing this binary fallacy to continuous data and the correlation in general (Pearson’s r) resulted in flawed equations directly expressing ES in terms of the correlation coefficient, which is impossible without including covariance, so these equations and the whole CBES concept are fundamentally wrong. MCT is a series of related misconceptions due to confusion with 2 × 2 tables and misapplication of related statistics. The misconceptions are threatening because most of the findings from contingency tables, including CBES-based meta-analyses, can be misleading. Problems arising from these fallacies are discussed and the necessary changes to the corpus of statistics are proposed resolving the problem of correlation and ES in paired binary data. Since exposing these fallacies casts doubt on the reliability of the statistical foundations of EBM in general, we urgently need to revise them.

Statistics of languages are calculated by counting characters, words, sentences, word rankings. Some of these random variables are also the main “ingredients” of classical readability formulae. Revisiting the readability formula of Italian, known as GULPEASE, shows that of the two terms that determine the readability index G – the semantic index G_C, proportional to the number of characters per word, and the syntactic index G_F, proportional to the reciprocal of the number of words per sentence −, G_F is dominant because G_C is, in practice, constant for any author throughout seven centuries of Italian Literature. Each author can modulate the length of sentences more freely than he can do with the length of words, and in different ways from author to author. For any author, any couple of text variables can be modelled by a linear relationship y=mx, but with different slope m from author to author, except for the relationship between characters and words, which is unique for all. The most important relationship found in the paper is, in author’s opinion, that between the short−term memory capacity, described by Miller’s “7∓2 law”, and the word interval, a new random variable defined as the average number of words between two successive punctuation marks. The word interval can be converted into a time interval through the average reading speed. The word interval is spread in the same of Miller’s law, and the time interval is spread in the same range of short−term memory response times. The connection between the word interval (and time interval) and short−term memory appears, at least empirically, justified and natural, and should further investigated. Technical and scientific writings (papers, essays etc.) ask more to their readers. A preliminary investigation of these texts shows clear differences: words are on the average longer, the readability index G is lower, word and time intervals are longer. Future work done on ancient languages, such as Greek or Latin, could bring us a flavor of the short term−memory features of these ancient readers.

Using the OCT platform, we can generate high-resolution data on retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness in a given eye at a large number of angular-points defined on a circular coordinate system. However, insightful characteristics of OCT RNFL data such as its circularity and granularity generally remain unutilized in its common downstream statistical analyses. We present a new circular statistical framework that defines an Angular Decay function and thereby provides a directional representation of an eye in terms of its focused RNFL loss. By applying to a clinical cohort of Asian Indian eyes, the generated circular data was modeled with a finite mixture of von Mises distributions, which led to unsupervised identification in different age-groups of 2 recurrent clusters of glaucomatous eyes with distinct directional signatures of RNFL decay. New indices of global and local RNFL loss were computed for comparing the structural differences between these glaucoma clusters across the age-groups.

In this paper we present experimental results concerning Acoustic Emission (AE) recorded during cyclic compression tests on two different kinds of brittle building materials, namely concrete and basalt. The AE inter-event times were investigated through a non-extensive statistical mechanics analysis which shows that their decumulative probability distributions follow q-exponential laws. The entropic index q and the relaxation parameter q  1=Tq, obtained by fitting the experimental data, exhibit systematic changes during the various stages of the failure process, namely (q; Tq) linearly align. The Tq = 0 point corresponds to the macroscopic breakdown of the material. The slope, including its sign, of the linear alignment appears to depend on the chemical and mechanical properties of the sample. These results provide an insight on the warning signs of the incipient failure of building materials and could therefore be used in monitoring the health of existing structures such as buildings and bridges.

COVID-19 Pandemic management has become the top priority of Government Institutions globally, which is justifiable seeing the high mortality of the disease. In India, Lockdowns by National, State and Local level administrations have greatly reduced the spread of the SARS COV-2 Virus. Some areas with a greater proportion of COVID-19 patients have been declared hotspots with increased restrictions on public activities through law enforcement. But quite often delay in identification of these hotspots leads to community transmission of the Virus thus aggravating the problem. A method to identify the areas which are at risk of becoming the next hotspot for the disease is the need of the hour[1]. In this Research document we will find the probable risk factors and make an appropriate scale to measure the vulnerability of an area, identified by its Postal code. To help with this a Pan India survey by the title of “Survey on General Indian population on the level of preparedness for COVID-19 pandemic” was launched and received around 1250 submissions, with the acquired data we will evaluate the risk factors and make appropriate scale to identify ‘pre-hotspots’.

(1) Background: Thrombophilia is a tendency towards hypercoagulability, and it is increased by pregnancy, peaking around delivery. Research question: does thrombophilia stimulate the in-flammatory state of the patient, already suppressed by pregnancy? (2) Methods: Eighty thrombo-philia patients admitted for delivery between 1/10/2017 and 1/12/2021 were prospectively stud-ied, together with eighty age- and para-matched control patients. Patients were admitted for de-livery at term by means of cesarean section. The inflammation indexes from the complete blood count values analysis during both the 24 hours before and after labor—extracted from the hospi-tal’s medical records—were calculated and then correlated with uterine involution. (3) Results: Except for the PLR, most of the numerous inflammation indexes studied were not significantly different in treated thrombophilia patients, before and after delivery, compared to non-thrombophilia patients. Only when we split the patients, based on the uterine haematometra in the first 24-48 hours postpartum, we found out that the few treated thrombophilia patients with haematometra (14 with haematometra out of 79 with treated thrombophilia) had elevated SII and AISI antepartum. In pregnant patients treated for thrombophilia, MLR is higher in pa-tients without the Rh factor than in those with the Rh factor. In non-thrombophilia patients, MCVL and NLPR increased with age and before labor, while SII and AISI increased with age postpartum. (4) Conclusions: Thrombophilia did not stimulate the inflammatory state of the pa-tient, already suppressed by pregnancy.

Supervised land-use/land-cover (LULC) classifications are typically conducted using class assignment rules derived from a set of multiclass training samples. Consequently, classification accuracy varies with the training data set and is thus associated with uncertainty. In this study, we propose a bootstrap resampling and reclassification approach that can be applied for assessing not only the uncertainty in classification results of the bootstrap-training data sets, but also the classification uncertainty of individual pixels in the study area. Two measures of pixel-specific classification uncertainty, namely the maximum class probability and Shannon entropy, were derived from the class probability vector of individual pixels and used for the identification of unclassified pixels. Unclassified pixels that are identified using the traditional chi-square threshold technique represent outliers of individual LULC classes, but they are not necessarily associated with higher classification uncertainty. By contrast, unclassified pixels identified using the equal-likelihood technique are associated with higher classification uncertainty and they mostly occur on or near the borders of different land-cover.

We show that low quality of all 427 Brazilian SARS-CoV-2 genomes recently published in Science (1) challenges their phylogenetic inference and may lead to incorrect typing of viral strains in clades with no statistical support. Absence of basecalling quality in genome assemblies and proper phylogeny parameter estimates preclude the assessment of signal-to-noise ratio in the data, downstream analysis and conclusions.

Background: The workplace burnout syndrome is often associated with particular aspects of certain job positions, especially those which entail working with people with special needs. The burnout syndrome in healthcare jobs is a serious problem which has grown into an epidemic among healthcare workers and associates. Objectives: The aim of this research is to assess the presence of stress and burnout syndrome at work with healthcare workers, expert workers, professional associates and associates in social service institutions in Belgrade. Material and Methods: This research has been conducted in the form of a cross-sectional study of a representative sample in social institutions in Belgrade. It has been conducted from March to the end of June of 2023. The sample of the study had 491 participants. The questionnaires used were a structured instrument with social-demographic and social-economic characteristics, workplace characteristics, life style characteristics, and the following questionnaires: DASS-21, Copenhagen, Brief Resilience Scale, and Brief Resilient Coping Scale. Results: The end results indicate the following to be significant risk factors for the occurrence of workplace burnout syndrome: overtime (OR=2.62; CI=1.50-4.56), BRS average score (OR=0.28; CI=0.17-0.44), DASS21 D heightened depression (OR=2.09; CI=1.1-4.04), DASS21 A heightened anxiety (OR=2.38; CI=1.34-4.21), DASS21 S heightened stress (OR=2.08; CI=1.11-3.89). The only protective risk factor which stood out was the self-assessment of health levels (OR=0.60; CI=0.42-0.85). Conclusion: Overtime is a significant predictor of workplace burnout. Apart from it, other significant predictors of workplace burnout were heightened depression, anxiety, and stress levels.

We aimed to evaluate the association between daily dietary calcium intake and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in postmenopausal women using data from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). This cross-sectional study included 12,348 women aged 45–70 years who had reached natural menopause. They were classified into three groups according to daily dietary calcium intake: &lt; 400 mg, 400–800 mg, and &gt;800 mg. The risks of CVD, stroke, angina, and myocardial infarction were assessed in each group. Further, we performed subgroup analysis according to the post-menopause duration (≤10 vs. &gt;10 postmenopausal years). We performed logistic regression analysis with adjustment for age, menopausal age, income, urban area, education, insulin use, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, high alcohol intake, smoking, exercise, oral contraceptive use, and hormonal therapy use. Calcium intake level was not significantly associated with the risk of CVD in the total population and the ≤10 postmenopausal years subgroup. However, in the &gt;10 postmenopausal years subgroup, daily calcium intake &gt;800 mg was associated with significantly decreased risks of all CVD (odds ratio [OR], 0.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.11–0.64), stroke (OR, 0.06; 95% CI, 0.01–0.42), and myocardial infarction (OR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.11–0.64). Our findings suggest that a dietary calcium intake of &gt;800 mg/day decreases the risk of CVD events in women who have been menopausal for &gt;10 years.

The COVID-19 pandemics has had an unprecedented global impact, and the COVID-19 mass vaccination campaign has been commonly regarded as crucial to overcome the pandemics. Since all-cause mortality is the best way to measure the consequences of a health intervention, the present study was devised to analyze the all-cause mortality data of the United Kingdom (UK), which are made publicly available broken down by vaccination status. Data from January to May 2022 were retrospectively collected and analyzed according to age groups and vaccination status and the relative risk (RR) for all-cause mortality was calculated in comparison to the corresponding unvaccinated groups. All-cause mortality RR was also calculated from January to May 2021 for vaccinated people. Results show that the all-cause mortality RR was higher in people who received one or two doses of COVID-19 vaccines throughout the whole period and in any of the age groups considered. People vaccinated with three doses more than 21 days earlier had RRs lower than unvaccinated people, which however linearly increased over time. RR in vaccinated people of all ages in comparison to unvaccinated people were lower in January-May 2021, however they steadily grew over time. The finding that all-cause mortality RR in vaccinated in comparison to unvaccinated people increases over time requires careful examination to understand the underlying factors. Meanwhile, all the other major countries should undertake a systematic collection of all-causes mortality broken down by vaccination status, and mass vaccination campaigns should be suspended.

A Challenging task in routine practice is finding distinction between benign and malignant paragangliomas and pheochromocytomas. The aim of this study is a comparative analysis of angiogenesis by assessing intratumoral microvascular density (MVD) with immunohistochemical (IHC) markers (CD31, CD34, CD105, ERG), and S100 immunoreactivity, Ki67 proliferative index, SDHB expressiveness, tumor size with one the most utilized score Pheochromocytoma of Adrenal Gland Scales Score (PASS), using tissue microarray (TMA) with 115 tumor samples, 61 benign (PASS&lt;4) and 54 potentially malignant (PASS ≥4). We found no notable difference between intratumoral MVD and potentially malignant behavior. Group of potentially malignant tumors are significantly larger in size, have lower intratumoral MVD, and decreased number of S100 labeled sustentacular cells. Both groups have low proliferative activity (mean Ki67 is 1,02 and 1,22 respectively). Most tumors maintains SDHB expression, only 6 cases (5,2%) showed a loss of expression (4 of them in PASS&lt;4 group and 2 in PASS≥4). PASS score is easy available for assessment, and complemented with markers of biological behavior completes risk stratification algorithm. Size is directly related with PASS score and malignancy. Intratumoral MVD is extensively developed but it is not crucial in evaluating the malignant potential.

Text mining is a technological trend often highlighted in the continuous exchange of information through interconnected media. Its applicability goes beyond private organizations, as the public sector also requires it to treat textual information regarding services offered. Within this scenario, public security emerges as a prominent user of text mining that seeks to ensure the construction of data and knowledgebases to support decision-making about law enforcement actions to ensure citizen welfare. The primary objectives of this article are: (i) to develop a survey to identify text mining applications, techniques, opportunities, and challenges in public security, and (ii) to outline research directions concerning these topics and provide insights so that interested researchers can develop new studies. The literature was searched within four databases: Scopus, IEEE Xplore, ACM Digital Library, and Web of Science. A filtering process was applied to extract the works most aligned with the target theme, resulting in the selection of 194 of the most relevant works for a literature review. There were identified nineteen key applications of text mining related to public security and the most recurrent techniques and technologies reported between 2014 to 2021, supporting outlining three axes for future directions: one with possible expansion of objectives for new research; another on changes and adaptations in scopes for the methodological context; and the last one on expansions and changes in application scenarios based on the literature.

Introduction: Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tears are a common injury among athletes, including NBA players. Advances in surgical techniques, rehabilitation protocols, and complementary therapies have greatly improved the outcomes for athletes undergoing ACL reconstruction surgery. Arthroscopic surgery has become the standard approach for ACL reconstruction due to its minimally invasive nature, resulting in less pain, faster recovery, and better outcomes. Accelerated rehabilitation protocols have been shown to improve outcomes by getting athletes back to playing sooner and with better functional outcomes than traditional rehabilitation programs. Physiotherapy has also played an important role in helping athletes return to play by using targeted exercises to improve range of motion, strength, and stability. Complementary therapies, such as phytotherapy, have also shown promise in aiding the healing process. These advancements in ACL tear treatment have the potential to improve outcomes for NBA players who suffer from these injuries and further research can help continue to improve prevention and management of these injuries. Methods: The study is a retrospective cohort study that focuses on NBA players who suffered from ACL tears and underwent reconstructive surgery between 2012 and 2022. The study excluded players who had not played prior to experiencing an ACL injury, players with a concurrent significant knee injury involving other ligaments, any other major leg injury, or a history of ACL tear in the contralateral knee. The study gathered data on 25 players and recorded game statistics for each player before and after surgery to assess the impact of ACL tears on players' game performance. The recorded data was analyzed using SPSS Statistics.Results: The mean age at injury was 26.12 ± 4.3 years, and the majority of injuries occurred on the left side. players experienced significant decreases in minutes per game and points per game, with a reduction of 5.9 and 3.5, respectively, during the season following the injury. Moreover, players exhibited a statistically significant decline in rebounds per game and assists per game, with a decrease of 0.91 and 1.11, respectively. These findings suggest that ACL injuries can have a severe impact on a player's ability to contribute to their team's success. The study did not find a significant difference in shooting percentages for two-pointers, three-pointers, and free throws before and after ACL injury. This suggests that ACL injuries do not significantly affect a player's shooting abilities. Discussion: This study focused on the incidence and impact of ACL injuries among NBA players between 2012 and 2022. The study found that ACL injuries had a significant negative impact on a player's performance, including decreases in minutes, points, rebounds, and assists per game. The mean time to return to play after ACL surgery was consistent with previous studies. The study also highlighted the importance of effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies, with neuromuscular training programs showing promise in reducing the incidence of ACL injuries. While ACL injuries did not significantly affect shooting percentages, further research is needed to fully understand their impact on shooting performance. Conclusion: The study sheds light on the frequency and effects of ACL injuries in NBA players and emphasizes the importance of implementing effective strategies for preventing, diagnosing, and treating such injuries in order to help players recover and return to their previous level of performance.