Microplastics are a fast emerging group of contaminants. Their worldwide occurrence in water, sediment, and aquatic fauna raises questions and concerns as to their probable effects on aquatic life and ecology. This study investigates for the first time presence, abundance, and types of microplastics in water and sediment from a lagoon bordering the large urban agglomeration of Lagos in Nigeria, and renders additional information about grain size and sediment composition. Water and sediment samples were collected from four locations in the Lagos lagoon and a tributary. The abundance and distribution of microplastics in four range classes were determined for the sampled locations. Plastic particles were counted using digital microscopy, and identified with FTIR and pyrolysis GC-MS. The abundance of microplastics ranged from 310-2319 microplastic particles/kg in sediment, and 139-303 particles/m³ in water. The large discrepancy in the sediments can be explained by sediment characteristics as more microplastics were detected in the fine-grained sediments of Makoko. Fibres were the predominant shape found in all samples followed by fragments and few films whereas spheres were missing. Fibres were more abundant in water (92.6 %) than in sediments (32.5 %) while more fragments and foils occurred in sediments. The most commonly used polymers polypropylene and polyethylene were also the most detected ones in both matrices. Compared to other studies in Nigeria, our findings especially in the coarser sediments were lower while the fine-grained site revealed similar results.

This paper reports the findings from a pilot study designed to explore the barriers, facilitators and similarities with the delivery and implementation of two distinct models of Advance Care Planning (ACP) documentation for older adults in their last year of life used by health care professionals in their clinical practice. PACe (Proactive Anticipatory Care Plan): a GP led model and PEACE (Proactive Elderly Persons’ Advisory CarE): a nurse led model with community geriatrician oversight were used by participants in their clinical practice. Telephone interviews were conducted with general practitioners (GPs) to explore their views of using the PACe tool. Hospital admission avoidance matrons took part in face to face interviews and care staff employed in private residential care homes took part in individual telephone interviews to explore their views of using the PEACE tool. GPs and admission avoidance matrons were employed by Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) and all study participants were recruited from the South East of England where data collection took place in 2015. Nine telephone interviews and two face-to-face interviews (one joint and one individual) were conducted with twelve participants. The data was analysed thematically. Participants highlighted the similarity of both tools in providing focus to ACP discussions to inform individual end-of-life care preferences. The importance of relationships was a pivotal theme-established, trusting inter-professional relationships to enable multidisciplinary teamwork and a prior relationship with the older person (or their proxy in the case of cognitive impairment) to enable conversations of this nature. Using both tools enabled participants to think critically and reflect on their own practice was another theme identified. Notwithstanding participants’ views to improve the layout of both tools, using a paper-based approach to deliver streamlined ACP and end-of-life care was a theme to emerge as a barrier which focused on the problems with access to paper-based documentation, accuracy and care co-ordination in the context of multidisciplinary team working. The value of technology in overcoming this barrier and underpin ACP as a means to help simplify service provision, promote integrated professional practice and provide seamless care was put forward as the solution.

The purpose of the study is to establish compliance of the design of the modernized car with the requirements for safe operation. An option has been proposed for upgrading a passenger wagon to a Mobile Diagnostic Complex for transporting a combined vehicle equipped with appropriate flaw detection equipment intended for rail diagnostics. The authors have established the most optimal option for locating the diagnostic vehicle on board the Mobile Diagnostic Complex (MDC) wagon, taking into account the additional load from the vehicle. To achieve this goal, the article developed a three-dimensional model of the supporting structure of the wagon body, proposed a methodology and presented the results of a study of the stress-strain state of the wagon body, taking into account the additional weight of the wagon. The article develops a methodology for studying the natural frequencies of vibrations of the wagon body and develops a three-dimensional model of the wagon for calculating dynamic indicators in the Universal Mechanism software package. Taking into account the previously carried out strength calculations, as well as in order to maintain the factory life cycle indicators of the supporting structure of the wagon body, it is recommended to use the model in the first version.

Many studies in the current literature annotate patterns in stock prices and use computer vision models to learn and recognize these patterns from stock price-action chart images. Additionally, current literature also use Long Short-Term Memory Networks to predict prices from continuous dollar amount data. In this study, we combine the two techniques. We annotate the consolidation breakouts for a given stock price data, and we use continuous stock price data to predict consolidation breakouts. Unlike computer vision models that look at the image of a stock price action, we explore using the convolution operation on raw dollar values to predict consolidation breakouts under a supervised learning problem setting. Unlike LSTMs that predict stock prices given continuous stock data, we use the continuous stock data to classify a given price window as breakout or not. Finally, we do a regularization study to see the effect of L₁, L₂, and Elastic Net regularization. We hope that combining regression and classification shed more light on stock market prediction studies.

This paper examines the transformation of the Ukrainian stock market by analyzing daily returns from the PFTS stock index spanning 1995-2022. Segmented into sub-periods, it tests the hypothesis that the market's efficiency has grown over time. Various data properties, including persistence, volatility, normality, and resistance to anomalies, are explored using different statistical techniques and methods. Volatility, indicated by standard deviation, exhibits a general decreasing trend, suggesting a shift towards a more efficient market. Returns show no significant differences across sub-periods, except for 2005-2007. R/S analysis indicates the decrease of persistence in the market: a trend towards increased efficiency. Normality tests support a normal distribution of daily returns throughout sub-periods. An analysis of anomalies reveals the market's resilience to day-of-the-week effects, with no specific trends observed. The results suggest the absence of serious changes in data properties in the Ukrainian stock market over the time, means evolutionary processes over 25 years can’t be clearly observed. Reforms and changes have had limited impact, justifying continued reform for the market's evolution.

Stock assessment determines the status of fishery stock to support manage- ment decision making. Considering the iterations between exploratory cal- culations and the need to compare outputs to elicit better model settings, we should focus on not only the accuracy of abundance estimation and the toler- ance of uncertainty but also the efficiency of the project workflow. Although in Japan, a stock assessment model was introduced written in the R language in 2012, the workflow did not sufficiently adjust, creating problems because the current workflow is contrary to the principles of effective value creation. To make our project sustainable, we propose adopting the agile methodol- ogy, an iterative development method used by software developers, for stock assessment. Therefore, we wrote an example report as a package document in the R language. Developed under a continuous integration environment, the report remains up to date, with every modification on component files. This method enabled our work to be efficient and transparent by allowing and documenting scenario branching, error corrections, and annual updates. We show that the iterative development cycle benefit us by allowing us to focus on the essential business problem of the assessment project.

This study will investigate different signals and events/news that determined the stock market's movements. As we know, many factors affect the stock market on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis, e.g., rate of interest, exchange rate, and oil prices, etc. Our research will investigate the impact of daily events/news in the KSE-100 index due to several policies announced and events/news in the country because the daily movements in the stock market can be determined only by different signals and events/news. Time series data is collected daily for particular reasons from "The News" (Daily Newspaper, Sunday edition) from 2010 to 2019. The results of this study show that political and global news affects the stock market index ferociously. For investors, the investment in blue chips is not less than a safe haven. When day-to-day transactions are concerned, there is always a higher panic attack than the herd behaviour in the stock exchange. Investors tend to make prompt responses to negative rather than positive news, which makes them risk averters. Our finding also confirmed that the ARCH/GARCH model is better than the simple OLS method concerning stock market upheaval.

We investigate the impact of air quality and weather on the equity returns of the Shenzhen Exchange. To capture the air quality and weather effects, we use dummy variables created by employing a moving average and moving standard deviation. The important results are as follows. First, in the whole sample period (2005–2019), we find that high air pollution and extremely high temperature have significant and negative influence on the equity returns. In the sub-period I (2005–2012), the 11-day model and 31-day model show that high air pollution have significant and negative impacts on the Shenzhen stock returns. Second, the results of the quantile regression show that high air pollution have significant and negative effects during bullish market phase, and extremely high temperature have significant and negative effects during bearish market phase. This implies that the air quality and weather effects are asymmetric. Third, the weather effect of the abnormal temperature on the stock returns is greater in severe bearish market. Whereas the effect of the air pollution on the stock returns is greater in the bullish market. Fourth, the least squares method underestimates the air quality and weather effects compared to the quantile regression method, suggesting that the quantile regression method is more suitable in analyzing these effects in a very volatile emerging market such as the Shenzhen stock market.

We investigate the impact of air quality and weather on the stock market returns of the Shenzhen Exchange. To capture the air quality and weather effects, we apply dummy variables generated by applying a moving average and moving standard deviation. Our study provides several interesting results. First, in the whole sample period (2005–2019), we find that high air pollution and extremely high temperature have significant and negative effects on the Shenzhen stock returns. In the sub-period I (2005–2012), the 11-day model and 31-day model show that high air pollution have significant and negative effects on the Shenzhen stock returns. Second, the results of the quantile regression show that high air pollution have significant and negative effects during bullish market phase, and extremely high temperature have significant and negative effects during bearish market phase. This implies that the air quality and weather effects are asymmetric. Third, the more the Shenzhen stock returns drop, the greater the effect of the abnormal temperature is. Whereas, the more the Shenzhen stock returns increase, the greater the effect of the abnormal air quality is. Fourth, the least squares method underestimates the air quality and weather effects compared to the quantile regression method, suggesting that the quantile regression method is more suitable in analysing these effects in a very volatile emerging market such as the Shenzhen stock market.

Based on a large sample of publicly listed and non-listed US commercial banks from 1996 to 2011, we find robust evidence consistent with banks using realized available for sale (AFS) securities gains and losses to smooth earnings and increase low regulatory capital. We also find that (i) banks with positive earnings smooth earnings, and banks with negative earnings generally take big baths; (ii) regulatory capital constrains big baths; (iii) banks with more negative earnings and more unrealized beginning-of-quarter losses (gains) take big baths (smooth earnings); and (iv) banks with low regulatory capital and more unrealized gains realize more gains. Also, banks with negative earnings tak big baths (avoid or reduce the earnings loss) if their unrealized gains are insufficient (sufficient) to offset the negative earnings. Our inferences apply to listed and non-listed banks, which indicates that the earnings management incentives do not derive solely from public capital markets. Our findings reveal that the accounting for AFS securities gains and losses enables banks to manage regulatory capital and earnings in a variety of ways.

The stock beta coefficient literature extensively discusses the proper methods for the estimation of beta as well as its use in asset valuation. However, there are relatively few references with respect to the appropriate time horizon that investors should utilize when evaluating the risk-return relationship of a stock. We examine the appropriate time horizon for beta estimation differentiating our results by sector according to the Industry Classification Benchmark. We employ data from the NYSE and we estimate varying lengths of beta employing data from 30 to 250 trading days. The constructed beta series is then examined for the presence of breaks using the endogenous structural break literature. Results show evidence against the use of betas that employ more than 90 trading days of data provisional to the sector under study.

Prediction of stock groups values has always been attractive and challenging for shareholders. This paper concentrates on the future prediction of stock market groups. Four groups named diversified financials, petroleum, non-metallic minerals and basic metals from Tehran stock exchange are chosen for experimental evaluations. Data are collected for the groups based on ten years of historical records. The values predictions are created for 1, 2, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 days in advance. The machine learning algorithms utilized for prediction of future values of stock market groups. We employed Decision Tree, Bagging, Random Forest, Adaptive Boosting (Adaboost), Gradient Boosting and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Artificial neural network (ANN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Long short-term memory (LSTM). Ten technical indicators are selected as the inputs into each of the prediction models. Finally, the result of predictions is presented for each technique based on three metrics. Among all algorithms used in this paper, LSTM shows more accurate results with the highest model fitting ability. Also, for tree_based models, there is often an intense competition between Adaboost, Gradient Boosting and XGBoost.

This study is the first to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price volatility on stock returns for the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE). We utilized weekly series of VN30-Index, WTI crude oil prices, geopolitical risks (GPR) index and gold prices spanning from 6 February 2012 to 31 December 2023 as data sources. Using a nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) bounds testing approach, we found that in the short-term, oil price volatility has negative asymmetric effects on the market returns. Specifically, in the short-term, a one percent increase in oil price volatility immediately leads to a 2,6868 percent decrease in the market returns while a similar magnitude decrease in oil price volatility is associated with 6.3180 percent increase in the market returns. In addition, the results obtained from the NARDL model indicated that, in the long-term, the negative and positive changes of oil price volatility have significantly negative effects on the market returns. Finally, the findings derived from the error correction model (ECM) show that 98.21 percent of the disequilibria from the previous week are converged and corrected back to the long-term equilibrium in the current week.

News on the stock market contains positive or negative sentiments depending on whether the information provided is favorable or unfavorable to the stock market. This study aims to discover the news sentiment and classify news according to its sentiments with the application of PhoBERT, a Natural Language Processing model designed for the Vietnamese language. A collection of nearly 40,000 articles on financial and economic websites is used to train the model. After training, the model succeeds in assigning news to different classes of sentiments with an accuracy level of over 81%. The research also aims to investigate how investors concern about the daily news by testing the movements of the market before and after the news is released. The analysis results show that there is an insignificant difference in the stock price as a response to the news. However, investors tend to overreact to negative and positive news in the Vietnam stock market.

Complex models have received significant interest in recent years and are being increasingly used to explain the stochastic phenomenon with upward and downward fluctuation such as the stock market. Different from existing semi-variance methods in traditional integer dimension construction for two variables, this paper proposes a simplified multi-factorized fractional dimension derivation with the exact Excel tool algorithm involving the fractional center moment extension to covariance, which is a complex parameter average that is a multi-factorized extension to Pearson covariance. By examining the peaks and troughs of gold price averages, the proposed algorithm provides more insight into revealing underlying stock market trends to see who is the financial market leader during good economic times. The calculation results demonstrate that the complex covariance is able to distinguish subtle differences among stock market performances and gold prices for the same field that the two variable covariance may overlook. We take the London, Tokyo, Shanghai, Toronto and Nasdaq as the representative examples.

In every economy, Stock markets are part of the key elements the build it up. A few decades ago, there has been a significant change in Ghana stock market returns (GSE). Our study examines the statistical and economic significance of investor sentiment, based on weather conditions/changes, on stock market returns. OLS models, assisted by unit root tests were employed in analyzing the data obtained from the Ghana stock exchange platform from 2000 to 2017. From our literature review, we discovered that investors’ perceptions play a central role in finalizing the direction of stock market returns. Regarding our empirical results, we tested whether weather variations influence the investment decisions of investors; we discovered that temperature and cloud cover significantly influences stock market returns. This is because of mood changes is associated with weather conditions variations. However, sunshine per our regression coefficient shows a statistically insignificant impact on investors’ investment choices. Precipitation to a large extend influence stock market activities further affecting its results negatively as our regression results depicted. We concluded stock brokerage firms, companies, and investors (foreign/local) must incorporate weather changes/effects when strategizing about their investment outcomes.

Time series data having low signal-to-noise ratio, non-stationarity and non-linearity are commonly seen in high-frequency stock trading, where the objective is to increase the likelihood of profit by taking advantage of tiny discrepancies in prices and trading on them quickly and in huge quantities. For this purpose, it is essential to apply a trading method that is capable of fast and accurate prediction from such time series data. In this paper, we develop an online time series forecasting method for high-frequency trading (HFT) by integrating three neural network deep learning models, i.e., Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and Transformer; and we abbreviate the new method to online LGT or O-LGT. The key innovation underlying our method is its efficient storage management, which enables super-fast computing. Specifically, when computing the forecast for the immediate future time, we use only the output calculated from the previous trading data (rather than the previous trading data themselves) together with the current trading data. Thus, the computing involves updating only the current data into the process. We evaluate the performance of O-LGT by analyzing the high-frequency Limit Order Book (LOB) data from the China market. It shows that our model in most cases achieves similar speed with much higher accuracy than the conventional fast supervised learning models for HFT. However, with a slight sacrifice in accuracy, O-LGT is approximately 40 times faster than the existing high-accuracy neural network models for the LOB data in China market.

Abstract—Annually, approximately 500,000 Merger and Ac- quisition (M&A) transactions are disclosed globally, each trans- action inciting substantial perturbations to the associated com- panies’ equity prices. The probability of an M&A transaction’s closure, as perceived by the public, inherently influences the stock price of the target company leading up to the proposed date of the deal. Given the recent advancements in the realm of Natural Language Processing (NLP), we propose an empirical investigation into the correlation between digital dialogue sur- rounding M&A transactions and consequent movements in the stock prices of involved companies. Utilizing transformer-based encoder-only architectures, we fine tune a stance detection model on an extensive dataset, amassed from digital communication platforms, featuring public discourse related to five historical M&A transactions. Ultimately, we achieved 70% accuracy on deal-completion stance detection using the Roberta-base model. We subsequently employ the aggregated the public sentiment towards the completion or termination of a proposed M&A transaction to model stock price movement. Utilizing a multitude of time-series based approaches, we achieve a mean absolute error of 2.29 USD for next-day price prediction and 3.40 USD for next-week price prediction. Ultimately, we find an existing but tenuous relationship between online discourse and the price trajectory of target companies, ultimately highlighting the complex social and economic phenomena behind M&A deals.Index Terms—Mergers and Acquisitions, Stock prediction, su- pervised learning, neural networks, Recurrent Neural Network, LSTM, stance detection, transformers

We use the Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) to analyse the interconnectedness between the stock markets of continental Europe and the BRICS countries. More specifically, we examine the presence of financial contagion in the stock markets of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa subsequent to the EuroZone Sovereign Debt Crisis (EZDC). We find evidence of co-movement and volatility spillover at short time scales between the Eurozone equity market and the equity markets in South Africa and Russia, with the Eurozone stock market leading the BRICS markets. The presence of co-movement in short time scales is indicative of the presence of financial contagion. No financial contagion is observed in the Brazilian, Chinese, and Indian stock markets during the European sovereign debt crisis. The absence of financial contagion observed in these three BRICS countries during the European sovereign debt crisis suggests that policymakers in these countries should prioritise addressing idiosyncratic shock channels.

The method propose in this study for stock market multi-objective mathematical model was linear programming using simplex algorithms to optimize the portfolio in the Nigerian Stock Market. The study selected five banks from the list of operators in the market and data were gathered from the banks to have individual market performances over a period of 5years. The data collected contains: Geometric Mean of Monthly Capital Gain Yields and Annual Capital Gain Yields from which Dividend Yields (%) were deducted to arrive Actual rate of return for the banks and the expected rate of return. Furthermore, the risk of semi-absolute deviation below the expected return is reduced. The data was analysed using Python programming because of some clauses in the data gathered. At first, the data assumes integer (-or +) and random in nature. As such, Python programming is one of the software suitable for such solution since the barrier for additivity is broken. Based on the analysis, the study therefore conclude that the potential investor(s) should invest in 13 units of investment x(GTbank Plc), 3 units of First Bank Plc`s Investment (y), 450 units of Zenith bank`s investment (z), and 8 units of Wema bank`s investment (m), and no units of investment of (n) Access bank. These investment quantities will result in the Optimal profit of p= 12797.902 billion naira.

This paper aims to analyze the effects of Covid-19 on financial markets from the perspective of Complexity. The Covid-19 pandemic has caused turmoil in financial markets and is already one of the most important financial crises in history, causing a fall in several stock markets as well as great volatility. Unlike past crises, which in most cases were caused either by problems of fiscal deficits or in the financial system, this crisis has its origin in an epidemic disease, which occurred in Wuhan, China, and quickly spread across the globe affecting transport networks, commerce and finance, and will affect the public debt of many countries. This is a systemic situation in which there is a need to consider several interconnected systems, financial instability and high financial risk, something that econophysics and some complexity theorists already do. Therefore, this paper intends to show, theoretically, the systemic and complex character of the recent financial crisis caused by Covid-19.

This paper intends to examine whether a company’s policy of dividend would impact or influence the price fluctuation of respective common stock in the designated stock market particularly in Hong Kong. Hence, there are 354 companies in Hong Kong which are all listed company on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (HKEX), were chosen as sample data for analysis with their audited financial information ranged from 2001 to 2020. Two proxies, the yield and the ratio of pay-out of dividend were widely adopted for the measurement of the effect of dividend policy and the possible influence on the volatility of respective common stock price by employing two statistical models, which are the model of fixed and random effects to provide accurate regression coefficients. With the results from the model of fixed effects, the yield and the pay-out ratio of dividend have been found statistically associated to the price volatilization of respective common stock in Hong Kong. The statical results in this study also find the yield and the ratio of pay-out of dividend are apparently and negatively associated to the price volatilization of respective common stock in Hong Kong. The research outcomes will be a reference for further study on different variables may have effects or volatilize the price of common stock price particularly in Hong Kong capital market.

In the interaction of the rolling stock and the upper structure of the railway track, intense dynamic loads occur. They have a destructive effect both on the parts of the rolling stock and on the elements of the superstructure of the track. In order to develop a durable, rational and reliably functioning design of cars and locomotives with good dynamic properties and good indicators of the impact of rolling stock on the railway track, along with theoretical computational studies, experimental studies are also required, which are usually the final stage in the design and implementation of rolling stock or modernization of existing ones. Locomotives and wagons in order to improve their strength and dynamic performance. The article presents the results of field tests to determine the dynamic performance of the type CKD6e diesel locomotive. The description of the preparation of the CKD6e shunting locomotive for testing is given. An analysis of the dynamic performance of a diesel locomotive during the passage of turnouts, on a straight section of the track and in a curve with a radius of 400 m, was carried out. The studies performed showed that the minimum value of the stability factor against wheel derailment on a straight section of the track is significantly higher than the standard value. The experimentally obtained ratio of frame forces to the static load from the wheelset on the rails, the coefficients of vertical dynamics of the first and second stages of suspension and the coefficient of stability against derailment of the wheel from the rail, registered on the track section in a curve with a radius of 400 m) meet the current requirements. A calculation scheme and equations of vertical oscillations are proposed, an analysis is carried out according to the graphs of movements of bogies and a locomotive body when moving along irregularities of different lengths at different speeds.

The dataset reports a collection of earnings call transcripts, the related stock prices, and the related sector index. It contains a total of 188 transcripts, 11970 stock prices, and 1196 sector index values. Furthermore, all of these data originated in the period 2016-2020 and are related to the NASDAQ stock market. The data have been collected using Yahoo Finance and Thomson Reuters Eikon. Specifically, Yahoo Finance offered daily stock prices and traded volume. At the same time, Thomson Reuters Eikon has been used as source for the earnings call transcripts. The dataset can be used as a benchmark for the evaluation of several NLP techniques as well as machine learning algorithms for understanding their potential for financial applications. Moreover, it is also possible to expand the dataset by extending the period in which the data originated following a similar procedure.

Does the choice of proxy for stock market development matter? This paper suggests that the growth effect of stock market development is sensitive to the choice of proxy and using alternative financial development indicators have practically no influence on the results. We found that using either the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio or the stock market returns; have a positive and significant effect on growth. However, we cannot make same conclusion when one uses either the ratio of total value of trades on the major stock exchanges to GDP or stock market turnover ratio to proxy for stock market development as the coefficient on these variables were found to be statistically insignificant. The indexes extracted from principal component analysis confirm the sensitivity of the effect to the choice of proxy. This finding suggest that stock market development is a conceptual terms, thus, representing it with single indicators make it impossible to identify which stock market development indicators have a significant positive growth effects.

Stock market prediction is a challenging task to perform, as we know the fluctuations that take place in the market makes it versatile and hard to predict the prices. In this research, we have explored the power of usage of hybrid ensemble algorithms to improve the predictive accuracy in the stock market forecasting. Our research comprises construction and evaluation of diverse hybrid models using different algorithms. The methodology presented in the paper involves comprehensive data preparation, feature engineering, and model normalization. Evaluating the different hybrid models, one stands out distinctly: LSTM (long short-term memory networks) + GRU (Gated recurrent units) + Conv1D (one-dimensional convolutional layer) hybrid. It illustrated its potential to revolutionize decision-making tools for investors and financial analysts in stock market analytics. The harmonious integration of algorithms not only underscores the effectiveness of hybrid modeling but also beckons for further exploration within the ever-evolving domain of predictive modeling, driven by the pursuit of precision and accuracy. This model shows a remarkable accuracy metrics including a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.95, a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 2.1222, a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 1.52, and a R-squared (R2) score of 0.9982.

The prediction of stock prices holds significant implications for researchers and investors in evaluating stock value and risk. In recent years, researchers have increasingly replaced traditional machine learning methods with deep learning approaches in this domain. However, the application of deep learning in forecasting stock prices is confronted with the challenge of overfitting. To address the issue of overfitting and enhance predictive accuracy, this study proposes a stock prediction model based on GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) with reconstructed datasets. This model integrates data from other stocks within the same industry, thereby enriching the extracted features and mitigating the risk of overfitting. Additionally, an auxiliary module is employed to augment the volume of data through dataset reconstruction, thereby enhancing the model’s training comprehensiveness and generalization capabilities. Experimental results demonstrate a substantial improvement in prediction accuracy across various industries.

Fluctuating stock prices make it difficult for investors to see investment opportunities. One tool that can help investors overcome this is forecasting techniques. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is one of deep learning methods used in forecasting time series. The training and success of deep learning is strongly influenced by the selection of hyperparameters. This research uses a hybrid method between the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and LSTM to find a suitable model for predicting stock prices. GA is used in optimizing the architecture such as the number of epochs, window size, and the number of LSTM units in the hidden layer. Tuning optimizer is also carried out using several optimizers to achieve the best value. From method that has been applied, it shows that the method has a good level of accuracy with MAPE values below 10% in every optimizer used. The error rate generated is quite low, in case-1 with a minimum RMSE value of 93.03 and 94.40, & in case-2 with an RMSE value of 104.99 and 150.06 during training and testing. A fairly stable and small value is generated by setting it using the Adam Optimizer.

The authors propose in this study to evaluate financial performance applications for stock prices of the Indonesian Stock Exchange in manufacturing companies. The method of research used here is a quantitative descriptive method. In that statement, Indonesian Stock Exchange manufacturing companies between 2016 and 2018 are the population use in this research, using the sampling technique Purpose Sampling. This research uses secondary data from 2016 to 2018, the financial reports of Indonesian Stock Exchange manufacturing companies. The Indonesian stock exchange web site has been provided with all data sources at https://www.idx.co.id, and searching for www.google.id. Our analysis shows that book value prices and the net profit margin affect stock prices. The value of financial performance at the Indonesian Stock Bourses manufacturing companies' cost amounts to 64.5 percent, while other factors not listed in this study account for 35.4 percent.

United Nations Framework Conventions on Climate Change (UNFCC) conventions in their conference of parties (COPs) has continuously considered and agreed reducing emission level in order to minimize the impact of global climate change. Reducing emission due to deforestation and degradation (REDD) ,was considered as one of the major activities in this regard during Kyoto protocol in 2009 which laid foundation for the participating countries to be compensated financially for reduced carbon emission. Mexico convention -2012 required the countries to develop and implement a transparent and consistent monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) process. Later in Paris agreement-2015, the parties agreed to limit the global warming to 2 degree centigrade and with further efforts to 1.5-degree centigrade furthering entailing the parties to prepare and communicate nationally determined contributions (NDCs) every five years. Nepal aimed to decrease the average annual deforestation rate by 0.05 percent from existing 0.44 percent in the terai region and 0.1 percent in the Chure. Nepal decided to develop its forest reference level (FRL) in national level for the historical period 2000-2010 considering Carbon dioxide and carbon pools above and below ground. As per the Forestry Sector Strategy, Nepal aims to increase carbon stock growth by at least 5% by 2025 as compared to 2015 and decrease mean annual deforestation rate to 0.05. After major change in administrative division in Nepal, forest management responsibility has shifted down to the Sub-national level. But forest resource studies have not been conducted yet in these levels. Despite a small country, Nepal has at least four clear physiological regions. The amount of carbon stock stored by different forest type are different depending upon species distribution, carbon volume and density for each species, and their distribution along ecological and physiological regions. Sal (shorea Robusta), for example, having one of the highest carbon densities, is a major forest types in Nepal. The purpose of this study was to generate forest map of the country, calculate carbon stock, gain and loss, and their rate in each province due to deforestation/afforestation using remote sensing data. Further Sal forest map was generated and its contribution in carbon stock was calculated using averaged national carbon density as well as using regional density method. According to the study, around 5.1 million hectares of Nepali land was forest in 2015 increasing from 4.2 million hectares in 2005. However, Sal forest has decreased during the same period. Province 1 contributed the maximum (130 Tg) and Province 2 the minimum (40Tg) of Carbon stock in 2015. Using the conventional method of calculation with national average density (108.08 t/ha), a total of 36.7T CO2 yr-1 carbon sink was observed in the Country. Whereas, with the new approach of calculation, a total of 44.7 T CO2 e of carbon sink per year was estimated during the same period. This approach holds potential for qualifying as an MRV process of Nepal. The subnational level forest and carbon statistics produced during this study can be important assets for the better forest governance. This can also pave way for policy formation and preparation of action plan for sustainable forest management and intervention strategy and obtaining better financial incentives participating in the reduction of emission due to deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) plus programs.

In this paper, we focus on the impact of financial liberalization on stability of emerging stock market. We identify crises in a group of Latin American (Argentina, Brazil and Chile) and Asian countries (Philippines, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand) during 1975–2005. This paper aims to apply the methodology of CMAX method. Our results indicate that liberalization triggers more unstable stock market in the short run and generate several crises. Still, liberalization seems to generate more stable financial markets in the long run. Financial liberalization does not increase the frequency of crises in emerging countries and at long-term, crises are less several.

This paper employs the two-step procedure developed by Cheung and Ng (1996) to analyze the causality-in-mean and causality-in-variance between the housing and stock markets of the UK. The empirical findings make two key contributions. First, although previous studies have indicated a one-way causal relation from the housing market to the stock market in the UK, this paper discovered a two-way causal relation between them. Second, a causality-in-variance as well as a causality-in-mean was detected from the housing market to the stock market.

“Blue carbon”, apart from marine humus, includes the carbon (C) stock of coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, marshes, and seagrass meadows, which have been overlooked until recently. Information about the role of coastal wetlands in C sequestration and providing other ecosystem services is still insufficient. In the present study, we assessed the C reserves of soils and vegetation biomass in two complex coastal landscapes (tombolos) located on the coasts of the White and Baltic seas. The soil and plant C stocks were slightly higher at the plot at the Baltic Sea (93.4 ± 46.7 Mg C·ha-1 and 5.22 ± 2.51 Mg C·ha-1, respectively) than at the plot on the White Sea (71.4 ± 38.2 Mg C·ha-1 and 3.95 ± 2.42 Mg C·ha-1, respectively). We attributed the higher values of the C reserved to a warmer climate and less saline water at the plot on the Baltic Sea. Both soil and plant C showed high heterogeneity due to geomorphological complexity and differences in vegetative communities. The Phragmites australis community showed the highest plant biomass and, in some places, high soil C reserves. Allochthonous C contributed to the soil C stock at the site on the White Sea. Though P. australis sequestered more C than other communities, its effect on ecosystem services was mostly negative because the invasion of reeds reduced the biological diversity of the marshes.

In this study, I extend the Fama and French five-factor asset pricing model with a sixth factor, namely, carbon risk, to investigate its impact on equity returns. To measure carbon risk, a new factor ‘pollutant minus green,’ is developed using the difference between the weighted average returns of pollutant and green firms across 51 developed and emerging countries across four categories—North America, Europe, Emerging Markets, and the Asia Pacific. The results reveal that North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific markets have a carbon risk premium that gets eliminated in small-cap firms. The carbon risk factor is further tested in left-hand side (LHS) test asset portfolios and found to be more pronounced with size-effect anomaly; specifically, small stock firms report greater declining average returns because of more exposure than the mega-cap stocks to carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, size-effect anomaly prevails with profitability and investment factors across firms. Therefore, high profitability, as well as high investment small firms, show a greater decline than the big stock firms in average returns when their carbon dioxide emissions increase. The asset pricing model evaluation is carried out through the Gibbons, Ross, and Shanken test. The six-factor model directed at capturing carbon risk patterns in average equity returns performs better than the three-factor and five-factor models of Fama and French (1993 and 2015) in the majority of categories under 3x3 sorting and compete with both Fama and French model under 2x4x4 sorted LHS portfolios. The finding of this study offers various useful applications for investors, policymakers, brokers, corporations, governmental pollution abatement institutions, and other stakeholders who wish to obtain carbon risk premium.

In this paper we provide a highly selected review and synthesis on some of the recent and notable contribution to research in portfolio analysis. A unique perspective on this development in the literature is offered in this paper by judiciously identifying a few sample eigenvalues adjustment patterns in a portfolio that leads to an improvement in the out-of-sample portfolio Sharpe ratio when the population covariance matrix admits a high-dimensional factor model. These patterns unveil a key insight into a portfolio performance improvement and shed an important light on the effectiveness of a few recently introduced ”robust to estimation errors” covariance matrix estimation approaches, which were not originally designed with the goal to improve the out-of-sample portfolio performance.

Herpesviruses produce a plethora of pleomorphic and heterogeneous particle populations. The composition and biological role of these is not understood. Detailed analysis has been challenging due to the lack of multidimensional identification and purification methodologies. Fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS), originally developed to sort objects with at least ten thousand-fold larger volumes, has recently been applied to cellular exosomes as well as viral particles and has been dubbed nanoscale flow cytometry or “flow virometry”. In comparison to other nanoparticles, herpesvirus concentrations can be measured with high precision using simple culturing methods. Here, we used this unique capability to evaluate a standard FACS sorter. We demonstrate that detection and separation capabilities were insufficient to distinguish infectious fluorescent viral populations from populations lacking fluorescence and infectivity. Moreover, fluorescent populations did not contain single virus particles but mostly aggregates. On top, analysis of viral samples by flow cytometry was confounded by swarm detection, as multiple objects are measured simultaneously and interpreted as a single object. Despite these technical difficulties, comparison of crude supernatant to gradient purified HCMV revealed that infectious virus is a minor proportion of the particles released from infected cells. Our data stress the need for a set of standardized controls and protocols when applying FACS to biological nanoparticles and highlights technical challenges that need to be solved before flow virometry can achieve its full potential.

The Algiers Stock Exchange (ASE) is the only stock exchange in Algeria. It’s one of the newest and smallest emerging stock exchanges in the world. The focus of this paper is to model and forecast monthly returns of the ASE index (DZAIRINDEX) using The Box- Jenkins methodology. The period of this study is from Jun 2010 to July 2019. According to Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) estimator, the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average SARIMA(2,0,0)(0,0,1) is chosen as the best model for forecasting the monthly DZAIRINDEX returns. Diagnostic tests confirm that the fitted model is adequate, where the residuals of this model are normally distributed with no autocorrelation and no heteroskedasticity. The forecast of the monthly DZAIRINDEX returns for one year ahead using this model shows a decreasing fluctuations trend. Based on different measures of forecast accuracy such as ME, MAE, RMSE, MASE, we show that the forecast accuracy of SARIMA(2,0,0)(0,0,1) is acceptable and this model performs much better than a naïve model. These results could be used by the financial communities in Algeria to deal with stock exchange risks and to improve their decisions.

Ninety percent of the existing building stock in Europe was built before 1990. These buildings are in urgent need for a significant improvement of energy-efficiency through renovation. Regrettably, so far only five percent of renovation projects have been able to yield energy-saving at deep renovation level. State-of-the-art renovation solutions are available, but costly and lengthy renovation processes and incomprehensible technical complexities hinder the achievement of a wide impact at a European scale. This paper presents research on Plug-and-Play (PnP) technologies supported by Building Information Modelling (BIM) to provide affordable, interchangeable and quick-installation solutions to overcome the main barriers of building deep renovation.

China combines green energy and industrial policy in its power market reform with various policy initiatives, including price support scheme for electricity from renewable sources and subsidies in the push for broader use of greener energy. This study focuses on the impacts of power market reform on the stock price volatility of listed power companies: 1) we use the Iterative Cumulative Sums of Squares (ICSS) algorithm to identify structural break points in stock prices; 2) we analyze the characteristics of stock price volatility based on the GARCH model; 3) we report the impact of power regulation on stock price fluctuations based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The result suggests three structural breaks in China’s power stock price volatility were related to the promulgation of power market reform policies. We find that industrial policies promote the reduction of power stock price fluctuations and its impact on power stock price volatility is consistent in the long run. However, our study also indicates the recent policies related to renewable energy do not have a very significant impact on the power stock market.

Green hydrogen is likely to play an important role in meeting the net zero targets of countries around the globe. Hence, producing green hydrogen cheaply and effectively is an important area of research. One potential option for green hydrogen production is to run electrolysers directly from offshore wind turbines, with no grid connection and hence no expensive cabling to shore. The removal of the grid presents an unusual integration challenge. The variable nature of wind turbines and farms results in a power output that can fluctuate more quickly than the electrolyser’s ability to respond without significantly stressing the electrolyser. Thus, the use of a battery, with the wind farm, becomes essential to even out some of the power variations that the electrolyser cannot deal with. In this work, a proof of concept of a wind farm control methodology designed to reduce variability in wind farm active power output is presented. Smoothing the power supplied by the wind farm to the battery reduces the size and number of battery charge cycles and helps to increase battery lifetime. Considering off-grid wind farms which exclusively power an electrolyser, this work quantifies the impact of the wind farm control method on battery lifetime for wind farms of 1, 4, 9 and 16 wind turbines. This is achieved using suitable wind farm, battery and electrolyser models. As an example, for the largest wind farm studied, consisting of 16 x 5 MW wind turbines, batteries with a lifetime of 15 years have approximately a 30 % reduction in required capacity (reduced from 14 MWh to 10 MWh) compared to operating without wind farm control. It is found that reducing the variability of the active power output of wind farms through the wind farm control methodology presented can have a significant impact on battery degradation and hence on battery lifetime. Hence, wind farm control can reduce the required battery capacity for a given lifetime or it can increase the lifetime of a given battery capacity. The work presented shows that wind farm control could play a critical role in reducing the levelised cost of green hydrogen produced from wind farms with no grid connection and paves the way for the design and testing of a full implementation of the wind farm control.

The rapid expansion of China's A-share market, coupled with the burgeoning volume of financial research reports, presents a unique challenge to traditional stock price prediction methodologies. This study introduces FAST-SCAN, a novel framework designed to leverage natural language processing (NLP) and time series analysis for the efficient and accurate prediction of stock market trends. By integrating advanced sentiment analysis, primarily through the utilization of the RoBERTa model, with dynamic time series forecasting, FAST-SCAN aims to distill actionable insights from the vast corpus of financial research reports. This approach not only enhances the speed and efficiency of financial analysis but also addresses the time-sensitive nature of market-influencing factors, thereby providing a competitive edge in stock price prediction. The framework demonstrates a notable improvement in predictive performance, achieving a 20% annualized return and a 7.19% RankIC, marking a significant advancement over conventional statistical analysis methods. Through its innovative combination of NLP and predictive analytics, FAST-SCAN paves the way for a more informed and strategic approach to investment in the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of timely, data-driven decision-making in the financial industry.

The objective of this study is to determine the impact of COVID-19 on the performance of Pakistani Stock Market. This study uses the data of COVID-19 related positive cases, fatalities, recovers and the closing prices of PSX 100 index of the first half of 2020. The findings of the study suggest that only COVID-19 recoveries are influencing the performance of the index and the daily positive cases and fatalities are insignificantly related to the performance. Further studies can be performed by incorporating other variables such as economic growth, interest rate and inflation rate along with the COVID-19 related variables at a cross-country level.

The aim of this research work was to provide model for predicting stock volatility in Nigeria Stock market. To achieve this, monthly data for Nigerian stock exchange, Exchange rate, Share index and inflation rate was collected for a period of January 1990 to December 2016.The descriptive statistics revealed these variables to exhibit volatility as a characteristics of financial time –varying series. DCC Model was fitted, were the coefficients for all the parameters and that of the correlation-Targeting (rho_21) are both negative and positive and tend very close to 1 and -1, indicating that high persistence in the conditional variances. The Model DCC, satisfied the properties of a good model of conditional mean and variance of the confidential Interval (C.I) of 1 and -1, that is, the conditional variances are finites and their series are strictly stationary. This therefore implies that the Nigerian Stock Exchange, Exchange rate, share index and Inflation rate will experience a non-steady shock in the Stock market. However Each of these variables have different length of recovery (volatility half- life) ranging from 1.5month, 6.5months, 6months to 2,4months for stock exchange, exchange rate, share index and inflation rate respectively. By implication, the volatility of these variables had a long memory, persistence and mean-reverting.

Age-related macular degeneration is a progressive retinal disease that is associated with factors such as oxidative stress, decreased phagocytic activity, and inflammation. In this study, we evaluated the protective effects of SIG-1451, a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug developed for treating atopic dermatitis and known to inhibit toll-like receptor 4, on light-induced photoreceptor degeneration. SIG-1451 was intraperitoneally injected into rats once a day before exposure to 1000 lx light for 24 h; one day later, optical coherence tomography showed a decrease in retinal thickness, and electroretinogram (ERG) amplitude was also found to have decreased 3 d after light exposure. Moreover, SIG-1451 protected against this decrease in retinal thickness and increase in ERG am-plitude. One day after light exposure, upregulation of inflammatory response-related genes was observed, and SIG-1451 was found to inhibit this upregulation. Iba-1, a microglial marker, was suppressed in SIG-1451-injected rats. To investigate the molecular mechanism underlying these effects, we used lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-stimulated rat immortalised Müller cells. The upregu-lation of C-C motif chemokine 2　by LPS stimulation was significantly inhibited by SIG-1451 treatment, and western blot analysis revealed a decrease in phosphorylated I-κB levels. These results indicate that SIG-1451 protects photoreceptor cells by attenuating light damage progression through inhibiting inflammatory responses.

The demonstration of compliance of rolling stock against disturbance limits for railway signaling, and in particular track circuits, is subject to a large deal of variability, caused by the diverse values of the electrical parameters of the railway line and resulting transfer functions, as well as operating conditions of rolling stock during tests. Instrumental uncertainty is evaluated with a Type B approach and shown to be much less than the experimental variability. Repeated test runs in acceleration, coasting, cruising, braking conditions are considered, deriving both max-hold (spread) and sample dispersion curves compared to the respective mean values (Type A approach to the evaluation of uncertainty). The major source of variability affecting a significant portion of the spectrum is caused by the superposed oscillations of the onboard LC filter, for which different choices of the transformation window duration are discussed. The test runs and the acquired data covered overall 1 day of tests along about 300 km of the Italian 3 kV DC railway network.

The present paper examines the impact of herding behavior on market capitalization in the Egyptian stock market before and after the disclosure of environmental-social-governance scores (ESG Score Index). This line of thought and research contributes to the literature on the interrelationships between ESG factors and market dynamics. Consequently, the evolving landscape of how to sustain investments in emerging markets like Egypt can be enlightened. Two main hypotheses were tested in the paper. The first hypothesis is on the expected significant impact of herding behaviour on market capitalization. The second hypothesis is on the expected positive impact of ESG on the relationship between herding behaviour and market capitalization. Panel data analysis using data extracted from financial statements of 22 Egyptian EGX 30 companies, over the period 2018-2023 will be used. This is to control for the cross-section and time characteristics of the research sample. The empirical findings reveal a positive significant effect of herding behavior on market capitalization before disclosing ESG scores. Another finding is that after the implementation of mandatory ESG disclosure, the relationship between herding behavior and market capitalization is strengthened. Moreover, it is empirically evident that companies with higher ESG performance attract more investments and higher valuations. The importance of ESG in shaping investment decision-making, enhancing transparency, and market dynamics has important policy implications.

This article deals with a finite-source stock-dependent stochastic inventory system with heterogeneous servers and retrial facility. The system can store up to S number of items, and the lifetime of each item follows an exponential distribution. The primary customers arrive in a finite waiting hall from a finite source and get service from the multi-channel (c-heterogeneous servers). The customer’s arrival rate depends on the present stock level. Those customers who arrive while the waiting hall is full enter into the finite orbit. Also, customers in the waiting hall can become impatient and enter the orbit. The (s,Q) ordering policy is adopted for the replenishment of stocks. In the steady state, the joint probability distribution of a number of items in the inventory, busy servers, customers in the waiting hall, and orbit is computed. The comparative numerical analysis of heterogeneous and homogeneous servers on the expected total cost, the average number of customers in the waiting hall and orbit, the fraction of successful retrial rate, and the average impatient customer rate are also carried out.

This study examines the relationship between firm-level and macroeconomic variables and stock prices (SP) in Iran, Saudi Arabia (KSA), and Iraq, where economic conditions are uncertain. The sample consists of all firms listed on these countries' stock exchanges between 2015 and 2019, yielding a comprehensive dataset from 154 Iranian firms, 82 KSA firms, and 33 Iraqi firms. Using a fixed effect model, intriguing relationships are uncovered between firm-level and macroeconomic factors on SP. The findings indicate that, at a 1% significance level, there is a strong link between Iran and Iraq's GDP and their respective SP. In KSA, the association between GDP and SP is positive and significant at a 5% level. In addition, there is a positive and statistically significant correlation between the inflation rate and SP in all three countries. Moreover, the association between exchange rates and SP is significant and positive in KSA and Iraq but negative and significant at the 1% significance level in Iran. Furthermore, in KSA, the connection between oil prices and SP is positive and significant, whereas, in Iran, the relationship is negative at the 1% level. Surprisingly, there is no association between the price of oil and Iraqi SP. Regarding intangible assets, their impact on SP in Iran and KSA is negligible. In Iraq, however, there is a negative and significant relationship at the 5% level, indicating that intangible assets have a detrimental impact on SP. These findings highlight the complex link among macroeconomic factors, intangible assets, and SP in the examined countries. Policymakers and governments should prioritize implementing measures to foster sustainable economic growth, manage inflation, and stabilize exchange rates. These actions can boost investor confidence and contribute to the stock market's overall development.

One of the factors in the mobility of a nation's economy is the stock exchange which plays a decisive role in sustainable economic development. Accordingly, and for the special place of the stock exchange in the economy, we decided to investigate the relationship between the interest and exchange rates and the Tehran stock exchange dividend and price index (TEDPIX). Using the autoregressive distributed lag method, the present study is conducted utilizing the annual data over the period of 1991 to 2020. The results indicate that the exchange rate has a positive long-run relationship with the TEDPIX, but no statistically significant relationship was found between the TEDPIX and the interest rate. Furthermore, the results of the estimation of the error correction model show that 30.786% of the disequilibrium in each period is adjusted to the long-run equilibrium.

This paper examines the dynamic dependence structure of crude oil and East Asian stock markets at multiple frequencies using wavelet and copulas. We also investigate risk management implications and diversification benefits of oil-stock portfolios by calculating and comparing risk and tail risk hedging performance. Our results provide strong evidence of time-varying dependence and asymmetric tail dependence between crude oil and East Asian stock markets at different frequencies. The level and fluctuation of their dependencies increase as time scale increases. Furthermore, we find the time-varying hedging benefits differ at investment horizons and reduced over the long run.

This paper presents a novel approach to sentiment analysis specifically customized for predicting stock market movements, bypassing the need for external dictionaries which are often unavailable for many languages. Our methodology directly analyzes textual data, with a particular focus on context-specific sentiment words within neural network models. This specificity ensures our sentiment analysis is both relevant and accurate in identifying trends in the stock market. We employ sophisticated mathematical modeling techniques to enhance both the precision and interpretability of our models. Through meticulous data handling and advanced machine learning methods, we leverage large datasets from Twitter and financial markets to examine the impact of social media sentiment on financial trends. We achieved an accuracy exceeding 75%, highlighting the effectiveness of our modeling approach, which we further refined into a convolutional neural network model. This achievement contributes valuable insights into sentiment analysis within the financial domain, thereby improving the overall clarity of forecasting in this field.

The present study investigates the decision-making process of investors on the Pakistan Stock Exchange with regard to portfolio construction, explicitly focusing on the incorporation of ESG concerns. The present study employed SmartPLS and structural equation modeling (SEM) to quantitatively assess data received from a sample of 393 out of 400 respondents. Based on the available data, investors participating in the Pakistan Stock Exchange are notably impacted by ESG aspects. The findings of this study hold significance for emerging economy firms, regulators, and investors, both in terms of theoretical and practical ramifications. The study's findings demonstrate a clear indication of investors' significant emphasis on ESG matters. Furthermore, it provides valuable insights for stakeholders who are involved in the ever-evolving realm of sustainable finance within developing countries

This study examines the effect of market risk on the financial performance of 31 non-financial companies listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) over the period 2000-2016. We utilize three alternative variables to assess financial performance, namely return on assets, return on equity and profit margin. Next, we use the degree of financial leverage, the book-to-market ratio, and the gearing ratio as market risk variables. Besides, we employ the pooled OLS model, the fixed effects model, the random-effects model, the difference GMM and the system GMM models. The results show that market risk indicators have a negative and significant influence on the companies' financial performance. The elasticities are greater following the book-to-market ratio compared to the degree of financial leverage and the gearing ratio, respectively. In most cases, the firm size, the tangibility ratio, and the cash holdings ratio have a positive effect on financial performance, whereas the firms' age, the debt-to-income ratio, stock turnover, and leverage hurt the performance of these non-financial companies. Therefore, decision-makers and managers should mitigate market risk through appropriate strategies of risk management, such as derivatives and insurance techniques.

Among the plethora of financial management tools available, stock investments stand out as the most recognizable and widely accepted option. However, investors often make buying and selling decisions based on unverified information provided by stock analysts. Since the credibility of this information remains uncertain, it frequently results in investment losses. Ordinary investors relying solely on rumors often miss out on prime opportunities for buying and selling stocks. In the current volatile investment landscape, various investment strategies cater to different situations. If individuals can effectively identify opportunities within this complex environment and dynamically adapt suitable investment strategies at any given time, substantial returns can be achieved. The ability of investors to promptly detect shifts in the current stock market environment and make accurate decisions regarding stock selection, timing, and capital allocation strategies is of utmost importance. This study presents a dynamic framework for investment decision support, which utilizes evolutionary strategies to determine the optimal timing for key strategic tools such as stock selection, timing, and capital allocation. By leveraging historical data for training and testing, this approach aims to assist investors in adapting to the ever-changing stock market environment. If investors can successfully identify and implement an appropriate investment strategy to aid in making accurate decisions, it is possible to achieve significant excess returns.

The distribution laws of various natural and anthropogenic processes in the world around us are stochastic in nature. The development of mathematics and, in particular, of stochastic modelling allows us to study regularities in such processes. In practice, stochastic modelling finds a huge number of applications in various fields, including finance and economics. In this work, some particular applications of stochastic processes in finance are examined in the conditions of financial crisis. More specifically, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Modified Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) models, which have been previously developed by the authors to predict assets’ prices of four Bulgarian companies, are validated on a time period during the crisis. Estimated rates of return are calculated from the models for one period ahead. The errors are estimated and the models are compared. The predicted return values with each of the two approaches are used to derive optimal risk portfolios based on the Markowitz Model. The resulting portfolios are compared in terms of distribution (weights of the stocks), risk and rate of return.

Financial markets require a great deal of decision making from the investors and market makers. One metric that can help ease the process of decision making is investment risk which can be measured in two parts; systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk. Clear understanding of the volatilities in each risk component can be a powerful signal in recognizing the right assets to maximize the investment returns. In this paper, we focus on the idiosyncratic volatility values and pre-calculate the idiosyncratic volatility values for 31,198 members of NYSE, Amex and Nasdaq markets for the trades occurring between January 1963 and December 2019. Utilizing a subset of dataset, limited to Nasdaq100 index, we consider the application of machine learning techniques in predicting the idiosyncratic volatility values using the raw trade data to explore a data extension option for the future market trade records that have not yet occurred. We offer a deep learning based regression model and compare it with traditional tree-based methods on a small subset of our per-calculated idiosyncratic volatility dataset. Our analytical results show that the performance of the deep learning techniques is much more robust in comparison to that of the traditional tree-based baselines.

Land’s basic metric is soil organic carbon (SOC) yet global estimates range 1,417–15,000 Gt C. Erosion of ancient topsoil and loss of soil taxa are most urgent of all context-triage concerns, and most ignored. Re-evaluation of topographical terrain on a non-flat Earth increases most soil dynamic inventories. Carbon credits of our neglected and disappearing SOC stocks are enumerated for mineral soils (~4,100 Gt C plus ca. 20–30% glomalin), Permafrost (>4,200 Gt C), peat (1,123 Gt C), plant roots (916 Gt C), litter (600 Gt C), microbes (200 Gt C), fungi (30 Gt C), biocrust (10–20 Gt C), earthworms (2.3–3.6 Gt C), termites (0.15 Gt C), nematodes (0.06 Gt C), ants (0.024 Gt C), and soil viruses (0.02–4.0 Gt C). Net contribution to atmospheric CO₂ is more from biotic topsoil loss (>10 Gt C/yr) than fossil fuels (<10 Gt C/yr). Although higher CO₂ results in a terrestrial greening effect with Net Primary Productivity (NPP) now ~220 Gt C/yr (cf. ~20 Gt C/yr Ocean NPP), this is arguably offset by topsoil erosion, desert expansion, plus fire at net ~16–20 Gt C/yr lost due, in part, to extravagant meat-eating with unsupportable, humus-depleting farm management. In particular, excess synthetic Nitrogen acidifies topsoil and destroys the natural SOC biota. Review shows critical topsoil loss up to 20,000 tonnes per second and, when soil microbes/invertebrates are properly considered, extinctions as high as 23 taxa per second. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) fail without solid soil foundation. Rather, heritage farm-data points to resolution in organic husbandry. Remedy via natural vermi-compost, 100% organic farming and practical Permaculture is under a simple premise that the Problem (i.e., SOC loss) is the Solution (viz., SOC restoration).

We analyze the upside and downside risk connectedness among international stock markets. We characterize the connectedness among international stock returns using the Diebold and Yilmaz spillover index approach and compute the upside and downside value-at-risk. We document that the connectedness level of the downside risk is higher than that of the upside risk and that stock markets are more sensitive when the stock market declines. We also find that specific periods (e.g., the global financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and the COVID-19 turmoil) intensify the spillover effects across international stock markets. Our results demonstrate that the EU, Ger-many, and the US acted as net transmitters of dynamic connectedness; however, Japan (JP), China (CH), and India (IN) acted as net receivers of dynamic connectedness during the sample period. These findings provide significant new information to policymakers and market participants.

Finding the key factor and possible "Newton's laws" in financial markets has remained the central issue in this area. However, with the development of information and communication technologies, financial models are becoming more and more realistic but complex which is contradictory to the objective law “Greatest truths are the simplest”. Therefore, this paper attempts to discover the most critical parameter and establishes an evolutionary model which is independent of micro features. In the model, information is the only key factor and stock price is the emergence of the collective behavior. The statistical properties of the model are significantly similar to the real market. It also explains the correlations of stocks within an industry, which provide a new idea for the study of key factors and core structures in the financial market.

We study in this paper the time evolution of stock markets using a statistical physics approach. We consider an ensemble of agents who sell or buy a good according to several factors acting on them: the majority of the neighbors, the market ambiance, the variation of the price and some specific measure applied at a given time. Each agent is represented by a spin having a number of discrete states q or continuous states, describing the tendency of the agent for buying or selling. The market ambiance is represented by a parameter T which plays the role of the temperature in physics: low T corresponds to a calm market, high T to a turbulent one. We show that there is a critical value of T, say T_c, where strong fluctuations between individual states lead to a disordered situation in which there is no majority: the numbers of sellers and buyers are equal, namely the market clearing. The specific measure, by the government or by economic organisms, is parameterized by $H$ applied on the market at the time t₁ and removed at the time t₂. We have used Monte Carlo simulations to study the time evolution of the price as functions of those parameters. In particular we show that the price strongly fluctuates near T_c and there exists a critical value H_c above which the boosting effect remains after H is removed. Our model replicates the stylized facts in finance (time-independent price variation), volatility clustering (time-dependent dynamics) and persistent effect of a temporary shock. The second party of the paper deals with the price variation using a time-dependent mean-field theory. By supposing that the sellers and the buyers belong to two distinct communities with their characteristics different in both intra-group and inter-group interactions, we find the price oscillation with time. Results are shown and discussed.

In air quality management, at urban and regional levels, road transport remains the cornerstone of residential, commercial, and industrial activities, and the vehicle exhaust emissions maintain the position of one of the key contributing sources. In Indian cities, big and small, vehicle exhaust emissions and dust from vehicle movement on the roads, contribute to as much as 50% of particulate matter pollution in a year. So, having access to a vehicle exhaust emissions inventory that is reliable and replicable is critical for air quality management and this exercise starts with access to vehicle stock numbers. These numbers are typically obtained from vehicle registration databases, traffic surveys, and other governmental records, and often require time consuming data cleaning protocols before they can used for emissions and pollution baseline analysis. This paper provides a cleaned and open-access vehicle stock database, as registered and in-use fleet, for the period covering 1993 and 2018, for all India and states, along with an estimate of age-mix of the vehicles using survival functions.

Forest ecosystems provide diverse services and values that contribute to human well-being. Although high proportion of species is still undiscovered, tropical forests alone are thought to host more than 50% of the world’s biodiversity. Beyond supporting via direct use of products like timber, fiber and biomass energy, they play an important role in providing a wide range of ecosystem services such as regulating water flow and quality, water purification, improving infiltration, fresh water, erosion control, carbon sequestration and sedimentation control. They are one of the important parts of terrestrial and the largest carbon pool, occupying an integral position in the global carbon cycle. However, these days, deterioration of nature and forest biodiversity is a severe danger to the global environment. This will be accompanied by increased strains on food supply, causing increased pressure on already delicate ecological systems. Thus, better forest management strategies are necessary for managing forests sustainably. Nevertheless, little is known regarding the existing forest management approaches and their associated benefits and challenges. Multidisciplinary approaches are needed to achieve sustainable management of forests. These can be accomplished if suitable forest management innovations are put in place. Various technologies can also be adopted through applying different forest assessment tools like remote sensing using light detection and ranging technology (LiDAR) in forest management. Harnessing such technologies will definitely result in providing increased socio-economy as well as improved environmental sustainability. However, the speed of transformation depends much on level of commitment of stakeholders including policy makers. As a result, this review is intended to explore existing forest management innovations which are suitable both ecologically as well as socio-economically. This shows that while there is a lot to be improved, there are already developed forest management innovations that are already in use including PFM and MFM, which helps to achieve SFM.

The research is a deep study of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which represent the market sentiments of the S & P 500 Index (SPX) over a period of 33 years. It evaluates how the two indexes perform in the stock market crash and how reliable VIX is in predicting market sentiments. The research distributes the market rally in two forms, and one is a trust rally, when investors are happy to see the market in a stable form, and investors' sentiments are positive towards the stock market. Second is a fear rally, where investors' sentiments are negative, and their outlook is bearish for various reasons. It observes the pattern of rallies, like the longest trust or fear rally, in which year and its duration. The research analyzes data to reach a meaningful conclusion and various inferences that can be drawn from the study of historical data.

This study investigates the impact of global financial crisis and the present COVID-19 pandemic on daily and weekly Crude oil futures using four variants of ARMA-GARCH models: ARMA-sGARCH, ARMA-eGARCH, ARMA-TGARCH and ARMA- aPARCH with dummy variables We also investigated the persistence, half-life and backtesting of the models. This study therefore seeks to contribute to the body of literature on the impact of global financial crisis and the present COVID-19 pandemic on crude oil futures market. This investigation of the impact of global financial crisis and the COVID-19 on crude oil futures has not been much studied at present. We obtained and analyzed the daily and weekly crude oil futures from secondary sources. Daily crude oil futures used in this study covers the period from the 4th January 2000 to 27th April 2020 while the weekly crude oil futures covered from 2ndJanuary 2000 to 26th April 2020 . The global financial crisis period covered from 2nd July 2007 to 31st March 2009 and the current COVID-19 pandemic covered from 1st January 2020 to 27th April, 2020. The study used both student t and skewed student t innovations with AIC, goodness-of-test fit and backtesting to select the best model. Most of the estimated ARMA-GARCH models are supported by skewed student t distribution while most of the ARMA-GARCH models exhibited high persistence values in the presence of global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. In the overall, the estimated ARMA(1,0)-eGARCH(2,1) and ARMA(1,0)-eGARCH(2,2) model for daily crude oil futures and weekly crude oil futures respectively have been significantly impacted by the global financial crisis and the Present COVID-19 pandemic while the preferred estimated models also passed the goodness-of-test fit and backtesting.This study recommends shareholders and investors should think outside the box as crude oil futures tend to be affected by global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic while countries also that depend mostly on crude oil are encouraged to diversify their economy in other to survive and be sustained during financial and health crisis.

This study rigorously investigates the impact of COVID-19 on the Tunisian stock market volatility. The investigation spans from January 2020 to December 2022, employing a GJR-GARCH model, bias-corrected wavelet analysis, and an ARDL approach. Specific variables related to health measures and government interventions are incorporated. The findings highlight that confirmed and death cases contribute significantly to the escalation in TUNINDEX volatility. Interestingly, certain indices related to government interventions exhibit no substantial impact on volatility, indicating a weak resilience of the Tunisian stock market amidst the challenges posed by COVID-19. However, the application of the bias-corrected wavelet analysis yields more nuanced outcomes in terms of correlations of volatility to the same metrics. Notably, the study recognizes the potential influence of uncertainties linked to the duration of lockdowns on financial market volatility. The positive and long-term impact on volatility of the US Equity Market uncertainty and VIX is evident through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), whereas economic policy uncertainty shows no significant impact. This indicates a potential vulnerability of the Tunisian stock market to future shocks, emphasizing the need for government efforts to instill investor confidence. This comprehensive exploration contributes to our understanding of the dynamics between the pandemic’ metrics, government interventions, and financial market stability. Our findings provide valuable insights for implementing risk management strategies amid the COVID‐19 crisis.

This study challenges the prevailing belief in the necessity of complex models for accurate forecasting by demonstrating the effectiveness of parsimonious econometric models, namely ARCH(1) and GARCH(1,1), over deep learning robust approaches, such as LSTM and 1D-CNN neural networks, in modeling historical volatility within pre-emerging stock markets, specifically the Moroccan and Bahraini stock markets. The findings suggest reevaluating the balance between model complexity and predictive accuracy. Future research directions include investigating the potential existence of threshold effects in market capitalization for optimal model performance. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of volatility dynamics and enhances forecasting models’ effectiveness in diverse market conditions.

This study investigates the complex interplay between public sentiment, as captured through news titles and descriptions, and the stock prices of three major tech companies: Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL). Leveraging advanced analytical methods including Pearson correlation, wavelet coherence, and regression analysis, this research probes the degree to which stock price fluctuations can be attributed to the polarity of media sentiment. The methodology combines statistical techniques to assess sentiment's predictive power on stock opening and closing prices, while wavelet coherence analysis unveils the temporal dynamics of these relationships. Results demonstrate a significant correlation between sentiment polarity and stock prices, with description polarity affecting Microsoft's opening prices, title polarity influencing Tesla's opening prices, and a positive impact of title polarity on Apple's closing prices. However, Tesla's stock showed no significant coherence, indicating a potential divergence in how sentiment affects stock behavior across companies. The study highlights the importance of sentiment analysis in forecasting stock market trends, revealing not only direct correlations but also lagged influences on stock prices. Despite its focus on large-cap tech firms, this research provides a foundational understanding of sentiment's financial implications, suggesting further investigation into smaller firms and other market sectors.

This paper aims to measure the effects of delisting on stock returns for Vietnam stock market. The study employs a sample of 118 stocks that were compulsorily delisted from the market between January 2011 and December 2021. Using an event study methodology, the empirical findings confirm that the delisting has negative effects on stock returns in the Vietnam stock market. Specifically, results derived from tests show that the average abnormal return of delisted stocks continuously declines during three trading days following the announcement of delisting. Moreover, it is found that the differences in cumulative abnormal returns between post-delisting and pre-delisting periods are significantly negative for all tracking periods. Apart from the negative effect of delisting on stock abnormal returns, we also find that the impact of delisting on stock returns for smaller companies is greater than bigger companies.

Financial bubble prediction has been a significant area of interest in empirical finance, garnering substantial attention in the literature. This study aimed to detect and forecast financial bubbles in the Vietnamese stock market from 2001 to 2021. The PSY procedure, which involves a right-tailed unit root test to identify the existence of financial bubbles, was employed to achieve this goal. Machine learning algorithms were then utilized to predict real-time financial bubble events. The results revealed the presence of financial bubbles in the Vietnamese stock market during 2006-2007 and 2017-2018. Additionally, the empirical evidence supported the superior performance of the Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network algorithms over traditional statistical methods in predicting financial bubbles in the Vietnamese stock market.

This paper aims to quantify the effect of the deadly novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak on Chinese stock market performance. Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and its component sector indices are examined in this study. The pandemic is represented by a lockdown dummy, new COVID-19 cases and a dummy for 3 February 2020. First, descriptive analysis is performed on these indices to compare their performances before and during the lockdown period. Next, regression analysis with Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity specification is estimated to quantify the pandemic effect on the Chinese stock market. This paper finds that health care, information technology and telecommunication services sectors were relatively more pandemic-resistant, while other sectors were more severely hurt by the pandemic outbreak. The extent to which each sector was affected by pandemic and sentiments in other financial and commodity markets were reported in details in this paper. The findings of this paper are resourceful for investors to avoid huge loss amid pandemic outburst and the China Securities Regulatory Commission in handling future pandemic occurrence to cool down excessive market sentiments.

In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the spatial distribution of soil organic carbon stock (SOC stock) and the associated uncertainties in two soil layers (0–10 cm and 0–30 cm; SOC stock 10 and SOC stock 30 respectively), in Valchiavenna, an alpine valley located in northern Italy . We employed the digital soil mapping (DSM) approach within different machine learning models, including multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), and elastic net (ENET). Our dataset comprised soil data from 110 profiles, with SOC stock calculations for all sampling points based on bulk density (BD), whether measured or estimated, considering the presence of rock fragments. As environmental covariates for our research we utilized environmental variables, in particular geomorphometric parameters derived from a digital elevation model (with a 20 m pixel resolution), land cover data, and climat-ic maps. To evaluate the effectiveness of our models, we evaluated their capacity to predict SOC stock 10 and SOC stock 30 using the coefficient of determination (R2). The results for the SOC stock 10 were as follows: MARS 0.39, ENET 0.41, RF 0.69, and SVR 0.50. For the SOC stock 30, the corresponding R2 values were: MARS 0.45, ENET 0.48, RF 0.65, and SVR 0.62. Additionally, we calculated the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for further assessment. To map the spatial distribution of SOC stock and address uncertainties in both soil layers, we chose the RF model, due to its better performance, as indicated by the highest R2 and the lowest RMSE and MAE. The resulting SOC stock maps using the RF model demonstrated an accuracy of RMSE = 1.35 kg.m-2 for the SOC stock 10 and RMSE= 3.36 kg.m-2 for the SOC stock 30. To further evaluate and illustrate the precision of our soil maps, we conducted an uncertainty assessment and mapping by analyzing the standard deviation (SD) from 50 iterations of the best-performing RF model. This analysis effectively highlighted the high accuracy achieved in our soil maps. The maps of uncertainty demonstrated that the RF model better predicts the SOC stock 10 compared to the SOC stock 30.

Chinese investors are easily affected by hot topics on the media and Internet and likely take irrational behavior. They tend to consume rationally and invest emotionally. This research aims to analyze the Baidu index’s effect on share price of solar power industry in China. Three main models are established to identify the correlation between Baidu index and stock price of solar industry. The media index and searching index of Baidu are chosen as an independent variable to measure the influence from media and Internet, and stock price as the dependent variable. To improve and complete the analysis, Hexun index is taken into consideration as mediator variable. This study applied Multiple Linear Regression Model and VAR (Vector auto-regression) Model. The research mainly uses the tools of SPSS, Eviews and Excel to conduct data analysis. The test is based on the theories of Granger Causality, unit root test, F-test, and t-test. The research proves the relationship between the close price of stock and Baidu index, and it also created a model for further forecasting.

Time series (TS)-based predictions are made by examining the behaviour of historical data to forecast future values. Multiple industries; such as stock market trading, power load forecasting, medical monitoring, and intrusion detection; frequently use it. Several variables; such as the performance of other markets as well as the economic situation of a country which affect its market performance; significantly affect the prediction of stock market prices. Therefore, this present study uses numerous variables; such as the opening, lowest, highest, and closing prices; to predict the indices of the stock market of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Successfully accomplishing an investment goal largely depends on choosing the right stocks to buy, sell, or maintain. The project's output is the projected closing prices (regression) over the next seven days, which helps investors make the best decisions. This present study used exponential smoothing (ES) to remove noise from the input data obtained from the Saudi Stock Exchange, or Tadawul, before using a multivariate long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning (DL) algorithm to forecast stock market prices. The proposed multivariate LSTMDL model had satisfactory prediction rates of 97.49% and 92.19% for the univariate model. Therefore, it can be used to effectively predict stock market prices. The results also indicate that DL as well as multiple sources of information can be used to accurately predict stock markets.

The construction industry has witnessed the increasing use of digital tools and smart solutions, particularly, in the realm of buildings energy automation within the concept of smart cities. While to truly realize the potential benefits of smart cities, a broader scope of smart initiatives is required to support the transition from smart buildings towards smart neighbourhoods, appreciated as the critical unit of urban development. To support this interplay of smart solutions between buildings and neighbourhoods, this article aims to collect and review all smart solutions presented in existing scientific articles, technical literature, and realized European projects. These solutions are classified under two main sections of buildings and neighbourhoods, which are investigated through five domains: buildings energy-related uses, renewable energy sources, water, waste, and open space management. Showcasing the quantitative outcomes demonstrates the potential benefits of implementing smart solutions from buildings to neighbourhoods. Moreover, this research concludes that the true enhancement of energy conservation goes beyond the buildings’ energy component and can be genuinely achieved by integrating intelligent elements of the neighbourhood, due to their strong interdependencies. Future research is recommended to focus on assessing the effectiveness of these solutions towards resource conservation.

Mistrust between scientists and non-scientist stakeholders is a key challenge in fishery management. This problem is exacerbated with the use of complex models to support management: these models suffer from difficulties in communicating their results and a lack of confidence from end users. The European eel is an illustrative example; its complex life cycle raises problems of coordination and discussion among the multiple actors involved in the management of the species. The GEREM model has been proposed as a tool for estimating recruitment, but its complexity, which is essential for addressing the characteristics of the species, makes it difficult to understand and accept by all stakeholders. In the context of the SUDOANG project, we proposed a co-parametrization of this assessment model to tackle this mistrust. Through the use of various questionnaires and appropriate statistical analyses, stakeholders were involved in two important choices for the model (zone definition and prior construction). Regular workshops and presentations were organised to explain the model rationales and to gather feedback and expectations. The results show that stakeholders have very similar perceptions of the potential definitions of sub-areas of recruitment in south-western Europe, and these perceptions are consistent with the underlying environmental conditions. On the other hand, the stakeholders have contrasting opinions about the exploitation rates of fisheries in different river basins, and the use of their knowledge currently has little effect on GEREM estimates. More importantly, the overall approach of this study is thought to have reconstructed the trust and confidence among participants.

The future index prices are viewed as a critical issue for any trader and investor. For this craving, various models have shown up in the literature. The Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is one of the popular models. This work examines four types of GBM as per the presence of memory or kind of volatility. These models include classical GBM with memoryless and constant volatility assumptions, SVGBM with memoryless and stochastic volatility assumption, GFBM with memory and constant volatility assumption, and SVGFBM with memory and stochastic volatility assumption. These models are utilized in an empirical study to forecast the future index price of Energy Sector in the Saudi Stock Exchange Market. The assessment was led by utilizing two error standards, mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The outcomes showed that the SVGFBM occupies the highest level of accuracy according to smallest values of MSE and MAPE. While the accuracy of GBM come in the tail of the list models under study. These results have affirmed the positive affection of combining memory and stochastic volatility assumption into the GBM model, which agreed findings of numerous earlier works. Furthermore, the findings showed the GFBM models are more accurate than GBM models regardless of the type of volatility. While, under the same type of memory, the models with stochastic volatility assumption are more accurate than the corresponding models of constant volatility assumption. In general, all models considered in this work uncovered high accuracy through the value of MAPE ≤ 10%. This indicates of the ability of applying these models in a real financial environment. Through this empirical study, we can say that the Energy Sector in Saudi Arabia is predictable and stable and afterward we urge financial investors and stockholder to trade and invest in this sector.

This study uses a recently developed theory and technique to examine post-acquisition evidence as to the motives for mergers and acquisitions(M&As), and decomposed the M/B ratio into three components: firm-specific error, time-series sector error, and long-run value-to-book. We make a multidimensional grouping according to the frequency of M&As , payment method, proportion of shares acquired, M/B ratio before the merger and total assets of the acquirers before the merge. The results confirm that M&As involve multiple motives, such as market timing, industry and economic shocks, agency and hubris. Using a sample of 2,035 M&As in China, we find that 59% are related to market timing, 68% are related to agency and hubris, 21% are related to industry and economic shocks, 51% are related to multiple motives. Our empirical research finds that the main motives for M&As of listed companies in China are value-decreasing, which have negative impact on the acquirers‘ sustainable development.

Current stock market forecasting methods encompass fundamental, technical, emotional, and bargaining factors. Predominantly, price prediction hinges on order volume and price, although correlating these two within existing models proves challenging. This study employs Cycle Generative Adversarial Network (Cycle GAN) to unravel the intricate price-volume relationship, combining it with Bollinger Bands for trading signal analysis, overcoming hurdles in short-term forecasting prevalent in numerical analysis and AI. Focusing on TSMC (2330.TW) stock price, the research leverages Cycle GAN in deep learning to master the price-volume nexus, juxtaposed with LSTM and RNN. Historical TSMC closing prices and transaction counts are model inputs, scrutinizing their interconnectedness for predictions. This innovative approach aligns stock price, volume, market value, taxes, and prior changes via system engineering. By intertwining Bollinger Bands with stock price forecasts, trading signals are distilled, factoring in extended index %b for a comprehensive market picture.

In a business environment that is constantly changing, intellectual capital stands out as the most valuable asset for companies. Those who invest in developing their employees, especially their Chief Financial Officers (CFOs), tend to outperform their competitors. This study explores the relationship between the intellectual Capital of CFOs and the financial performance of companies listed on B3. The 100 companies with the largest capitalization listed on B3 in 2022 were analyzed, with available data on the CFO. A statistical model was applied in a cross-section analysis, considering two of the three subdivisions of Intellectual Capital: Human Capital ( experience, education, and certifications) and Relational/Social Capital ( network and reputation of the CFO). The results indicated a statistically significant relationship between CFOs' Human Capital level and the performance of the companies they manage, measured by EPS, ROA, and ROE. However, no statistical significance was found for Relational/Social Capital. This study contributes to the literature on intellectual capital and corporate finance in the Brazilian context, providing new evidence on the importance of CFOs' intellectual capital for company performance. It was observed that there are few equivalent studies in Brazil on the topic, especially about the Intellectual Capital of CFOs of companies listed on the stock exchange (BOVESPA).

The article analyzes the transitional mode of movement of a passenger train caused by emergency braking by the driver. To study the possibility of derailment of passenger cars, a simulation model of the movement of a train consisting of a locomotive and twenty passenger cars was developed in the Universal Mechanism software environment, designed to study the dynamics and kinematics of mechanical systems, which include railway rolling stock. The developed model allows taking into account the longitudinal, transverse and vertical vibrations of all cars and locomotive. All bodies in the model are assumed to be absolutely rigid. The assumption of non-deformability of the bodies is based on the fact that the stiffness of the spring suspension and elastic connections is significantly less than the structural rigidity of the bogie frames and the bolster structure, and the frequency of elastic vibrations of these bodies is much higher than the frequency of their vibrations on the spring suspension. Passengers and cargo in a wagon are considered to be non-deformable and integral with the wagon body, similarly in the case of a locomotive body. Between the elements of the system, connections are involved that regulate certain relative movements of these elements.

Individual investors often struggle to predict stock prices due to the limitations imposed by the computational capacities of personal laptop Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) when running intensive deep learning models. This study proposes solving these GPU constraints by integrating deep learning models with technical analysis methods. This integration significantly reduces analysis time and equips individual investors with the ability to identify stocks that may yield potential gains or losses in an efficient manner. Thus, a comprehensive buy and sell algorithm, compatible with average laptop GPU performance, is introduced in the study. This algorithm offers a lightweight analysis method that emphasizes factors identified by technical analysis methods, thereby providing a more accessible and efficient approach for individual investors. To evaluate the efficacy of this approach, we analyzed the performance of eight deep learning models: LSTM (4 layers), CNN, BiLSTM (4 layers), CNN Attention, BiGRU CNN BiLSTM Attention, BiLSTM Attention CNN, CNN BiLSTM Attention, and CNN Attention BiLSTM. These models were used to predict stock prices for Samsung Electronics and Celltrion Healthcare. The CNN Attention BiLSTM model displayed superior performance among these models, with the lowest validation mean absolute error value. In addition, an experiment was conducted using WandB Sweep to determine the optimal hyperparameters for four individual hybrid models. These optimal parameters were then implemented in each model to validate their back-testing rate of return. The CNN Attention BiLSTM hybrid model emerged as the highest-performing model, achieving an approximate rate of return of 5 percent. Overall, this study offers valuable insights into the performance of various deep learning and hybrid models in predicting stock prices. These findings can assist individual investors in selecting appropriate models that align with their investment strategies, thereby increasing their likelihood of success in the stock market.

This paper analyzes the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and social impact within the oil industry in an emerging market (Peru). Following the emerging literature on the social impact field, and using the case study methodology, the findings show that the expected positive relationship is diverse depending on several factors. Specifically, the results reveal that companies must focus on community and environmental responsibility, together with stakeholders' involvement to achieve social impact. However, when companies are weak in any of the previous factors, then the social impact is only partially accepted or even withdrawn.

With the increasing of copper consumption, the in-use stock of copper tends to increase. This paper used the “average use life method” to quantify the amount of copper in-use stock, and calculated the average age of in-use stock. It was indicated that the total in-use stock had an overall smooth trends, and reached its peak in 2007 was about 68.9 Mt (million tons), in addition, in-use stock per capita reached its peak ,234 kg/capita in 2001. The results demonstrated that during the period 1992-2002, the average age of copper in-use stock was continually decreased, but gradually increased since the year 2003. The fixed assets depreciation method used in this paper is applied to analyze depreciated copper in-use stock, and to analyze the relationship with economic indicator (GDP). It is demonstrated that it was inconsistent with the theory of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) before 2000, this might be the demand for copper in the service sector is greater than the reduced strength of alternatives. Finally, scenario analysis of future copper in-use stock and depreciated copper in-use stock per capita in the U.S. were presented. The corresponding average age of the in-use stock will have a slight rise in the next decade.

Inflation in 2021 and 2022 grew much faster than the Federal Reserve expected. The Fed downplayed inflation in 2021 and then increased the federal funds rate by 500 basis points between March 2022 and May 2023. This paper investigates how this unprecedented tightening impacted the stock market. To do so it estimates a fully specified multi-factor model that measures the exposure of 53 assets to Bauer and Swanson (2022) monetary policy surprises over the 1988 to 2019 period. It then uses the monetary policy betas to gauge investors’ beliefs about monetary policy between 2020 and 2023. The results indicate that changing perceptions about monetary policy multiplied uncertainty and stock market volatility.

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between the institutional investors which can affect financial performance for corporate sustainability on the income smoothing. Therefore, this study focus on the connection between the nature of stock rights and income smoothing in China. For this study, hypotheses were established on the relationship each state-controlled companies, income smoothing, and information equilibrium of individual investors, and empirical analysis was conducted through related variables. The analysis results are summarized in three categories as follows. First, this research finds that state-controlled firms (CONTs) prefer income smoothing activities compared to non-state-controlled firms for the long-term sustainable development of firms using data from 2011 to 2019. Second, this study found out that Institutional investors support the behavior of CONTs to smooth their earnings because this behavior is seen as an attempt by CONTs to convey valuable private information to other investors. Third, we was able to discover that institutional investors' monitoring effect is predominantly driven by pressure-resistant institutional investors. This research complements the lack of empirical research on income smoothing and enable to give a guideline that the type of stock rights is a critical key determinant of participation in income smoothing activities for stable growth and sustainability in the future.

In financial time series modelling and forecasting, combining ARMA and GARCH models tend to produce superior and reliable models for volatility persistence, half-life volatility and backtesting (application of model in real life). In Nigeria, banking stocks are mostly traded because of its potential benefits to investors. This study modelled and forecasted the Guaranty Trust (GT) Bank daily stock returns from January 2^nd 2001 to May 8^th 2017 data set collected from a secondary source. The ARMA-GARCH models, persistence, half-life and backtesting were used to analysed the collected data using student t and skewed student t distributions, and the analyses are carried out R environment using rugard and performanceAnaytics Packages. The study revealed that using the lowest information criteria values only could be misleading rather we added the use of backtesing. The ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) models fitted exhibited high persistency in the daily stock returns while the days it takes for mean-reverting of the models ranges from 5 days to 100 days but unfortunately the models failed backtesting. The results further revealed ARMA(1,1)-eGARCH (2,2) model with student t distribution provides a suitable model for evaluating the GT bank stock returns among the competing models while it takes less than 30 days for the persistence volatility to return back to its average value of the stock returns. This study recommended that researchers should adopt backtesting approach while fitting GARCH models while GT bank stocks investor should be assured that no matter the fluctuations in the stock market, the GT bank stock returns has the ability to returns to its mean price return.

This study aims to determine how the effect of interest rates and changes in the dollar exchange rate (USD) on the stock price. The type of research carried out in this research is quantitative research with the object of research, namely Bank Central Asia (BCA). The data used in this study comes from secondary data, namely from books, the internet, documents, and banking sites. This study indicates that the independent variable, namely the interest rate, has a significant negative effect on the joint-stock price index and the other independent variable, namely the dollar exchange rate (USD), has a significant positive effect on the joint-stock price index. The coefficient test results show that interest rates and exchange rates (USD) simultaneously affect stock prices, namely 67.2% while the remaining 32.8% is influenced by other factors.

COVID-19 was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and has caused huge death and has spread to almost all the parts of the world. There are speculation that most of the world economy and financial markets would be affected due to lockdown and social distancing. The first case of COVID-19 was first identified in Nigeria on 27th February 2020 and this study examines the effect of COVID-19 outbreak on the performance of the Nigeria stock exchange using historical data covering 2nd March 2015 to 16th April, 2020 sourced from a secondary source. This study considered the COVID-19 period from 2nd January 2020 to 16th April 2020, the results revealed a loss in stock returns and high volatility in stock returns under the COVID-19 period in Nigeria as against the normal period under study. In addition, Quadratic GARCH (QGARCH) and Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models with dummy variable were applied to the stock returns shows that the COVID-19 has had negative effect on the stock returns in Nigeria. The study recommended that political and economic policy such as stable political environment, incentive to indigenous companies, diversification of the economy, flexible exchange rate regime be implemented so as to improve the financial market and to attract more and new investors to the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

Total Nigeria Plc is a Marketing and Services subsidiary of Total; a multinational energy company operating in more than 130 countries and committed to providing sustainable products and services for its customers. For over 50 years, Total Nigeria Plc has remained the leader in the downstream sector of the Nigerian oil and gas industry. This study investigated the volatility of the stock price of Total Petroleum Nigeria plc using nine (9) GARCH models namely sGARCH, gjrGARCH, eGARCH, iGARCH, aPARCH, TGARCH, NGARCH, NAGARCH and AVGARCH. We also investigated the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Backtesting of the Models. The aim actually of this study is to boost the confidence of the shareholders and investors of the Total Nigeria plc. To achieve this, daily stock price for Total petroleum Nigeria plc from secondary was collected from January 2^nd 2001 to May 8^th 2017. . The study used both normal and student t innovations, using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to select the best model, for normal innovations for log returns and cleansed log returns of Total plc, the eGARCH and sGARCH models performed best respectively, while NGARCH model performed best for student t innovation for both log returns and cleansed returns of Total plc. The persistence of the models are stable except in few cases where iGARCH, eGARCH where not stable. Also for student t innovation, the sGARCH and gjrGARCH fails to converge. The mean-reverting number of day for the returns of Total Nigeria plc differs from model to model. Evidence from the VaR Analysis revealed from the selected models revealed that the Risk of VaR losses is high at 99% confidence level, slightly high at 95% confidence level and better at 90% confidence level. Although The Duration-Based Tests of independence conducted revealed that the models are correctly specified since in all cases the null hypotheses were accepted. This means that the probability of an exception on any day did not depends on the outcome of the previous day. Finally, both the unconditional (Kupiec) and conditional (Christoffersen) coverage tests for the correct number of exceedances for both Total stock returns and cleansed returns. The tests revealed rejection of the models at 1% level of significance. This confirms that unconditional (Kupiec) and conditional (Christoffersen) coverage tests for the correct number of exceedances are reliable compared to the Duration-Based Tests of independence. Therefore we recommend that shareholders and investors in Total Nigeria plc are to remain and continue to investment in Total Nigeria plc because if there is any form of losses, the price of the stock has the potentials to improve in the future. Again, though the risk is high at 99% confidence level, this in line with the financial theory that states that an asset with high expected risk would pay higher return on the average.

Deforestation through land-use conversion, illegal logging, and timber trafficking is believed to cause ~10% of the annual human carbon dioxide emissions at the global level. Given the large contribution, local and national policies have been set in place in the effort to reduce deforestation and support reforestation. However, accurate assessment of forest carbon stock is expensive and challenging in remote areas and on large geographical scales. To improve carbon stock monitoring and evaluation of fine-scale forest loss, we developed a rapid, automatic, scalable, and cost-efficient generalized deep learning framework that uses diverse remote sensing data and satellite imagery to derive aboveground carbon density from accurate estimates of tree canopy heights at fine-grained resolution (30x30 meters) in remote tropical rainforests. The remote sensing data is composed of Landsat-8, Sentinel-1, land cover, digital elevation model, and NASA CMS airborne LiDAR, as well as vegetation indices, texture metrics, and climatic data. Data sources were compiled into a data pipeline which produced &gt;300 features and 2 million observations over forests in Indonesian Borneo. Using LiDAR swath data on canopy forest high for ~100,000 hectares in Indonesian Borneo to create a training and validation datasets, our neural network model produced aboveground carbon density estimates with R2 of 0.82, which is a significant improvement from comparable works by using Random Forest (R2 of 0.3-0.5). This deep learning framework can be used to facilitate further carbon stock modeling in other forest regions (e.g., Brazil) as well as for the general purpose of climate change mitigation.

Stock bubbles are characterized by unpredictable price surges and subsequent declines, causing significant losses for investors. The study aimed to detect mildly explosive patterns in S&P 500-listed stocks in real-time using the GSADF test. This study focused on the length, the normality of the stock bubble episode and compared the effectiveness of SADF and GSADF tests in bubble detection, consistently finding GSADF's superiority. The duration of breakouts exhibited non-normality, suggesting unusually long bubble durations.

This research article focused on discovering appropriate liquidity risk concerns in the financial Sector. Primarily, it deals with the appropriate liquidity factors that affect financial performance services pertained to several liquidity crises and the respective liquidity measures. Liquidity is considered the primary constraint. The Liquidity Ratios are the defective condition of calculating the financial performance services and their respective status. For fulfilling this performance service status prediction, this research use calculation for consistency index procedure. Liquidity index-based predictions have collaborated concerning the price movement in the stock market. The Liquidity will affect the trading and market transparency whenever the price moment varies. To control this trading and not market transparency of liquidity index be employed the greedy approach for estimating the most factor affected by the liquid index. Hence, this research elaborates on the greedy approach today with 25 essential financial factors. Each Panther will have combined with the tractor-confirmed liquidity crisis whenever the factors of liquidity crisis are combined with the actual financial factor, the minimum and maximum Degree of matching are calculated. This calculation determines the factors that affected the Liquidity concerning their exact, Plugin, subsume, and fail condition. Eventually, the search concludes the determination of factors affecting Liquidity concerning the actual finance factor and liquidity crisis. Finally, the result was concluded with the Degree of matching and their efficiency of finding liquidity factors with a successful reasonable result. Based on the Degree of matching result, this research found the actual reason for Liquidity with the help of various financial factors

The assessment of biomass carbon stocks was conducted at plot scale as a sample to estimate for all vegetation areas by using destructive sampling and or allometric equation method. Remote sensing is one of the techniques can be used to estimate and mapping biomass carbon stock for the entire areas. The objectives of the study are the identification and determine the range of electromagnetic wave of Landsat 8 satellite data that most suitable for assessing and mapping biomass carbon stock distribution. This research analyses exponential regression equation between spectral radiance values (Lλi) for with biomass measurement results on the field to find the best correlation based on the coefficient of determination value (R2). It also analyses the relationship between field biomass and NDVI value (Normal Differences Vegetation Index) from satellite data. The study area consists of 54.9% bush (Bs), 24.5% scrub (Sc), 16.8% secondary forest (Sf), while the rest (3.8%) is a water body. The with average biomass carbon stock value 4.11 tons.ha-1, 64.43 tons.ha-1, and 85.36 tons.ha-1, for strata Sc, Bs, and Sf respectively. Spectral radiance of SWIR (Shortwave Infra-Red) band 6 is determined as a spectral characteristic that can be used to estimating carbon stock with following the equation Y= 12657(EXP(-0.642(Lλband6)) with r2 = 0.75. Correlation NDVI and field biomass showed the low r2 value (0.08), so in this study, NDVI cannot be used to estimate the biomass carbon stock.

Through this study, we established equations for estimating the standing tree carbon stock, based on 24 tree species in multiple size classes in a case study at the Ngao Demonstration Forest (NDF) in northern Thailand. Four hundred thirty-nine wood samples from trees in mixed deciduous forest (MDF), dry dipterocarp forest (DDF), and dry evergreen forest (DEF), were collected using non-destructive methods to estimate above-ground carbon equations through statistical regression. The equations were established based on four criteria: 1) the coefficient of determination (R2), 2) Standard error of estimate (SE), 3) F-value, and 4) Significant value (p-value, α ≤ 0.05). The above-ground carbon stock (C) equations for standing trees in the MDF was C = 0.0199DBH2.1887H0.5825, for DDF was C = 0.0145DBH2.1435 H0.748, for DEF was C = 0.0167DBH2.1423H0.7070, and the general equation for all species/wood density groups was C = 0.017543DBH2.1625H0.6614, where DBH is tree diameter at breast height and H is tree total height. The above-ground carbon stock in the DDF, MDF, and DEF was 142, 53.02, and, 12 tons/ha, respectively, and the estimated above-ground carbon stock in the Mae Huad sector at the NDF was 61 tons/ha.

Using recent developments in econometrics and computational statistics we consider the estimation of the instantaneous rate of asset return process when the underlying Data Generating Mechanism (DGM) is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, driven by fractional noise, and sampled at fixed intervals of length h. To address the problem we adopt throughout the paper an exact discretization approach. This enable us to exploit the fact that a flow sampling scheme arises naturally when observing the DGM. For, while the instantaneous rate of return process is unobservable at points in time, its time integral over successive observations is observable since it equals the increment of log-prices. Exact discretization delivers an ARIMA(1,1,1) model for log-prices with a fractional driving noise. Building on the resulting exact discretization formulae and covariance function, a new Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme is proposed and we examine the properties of both the time and frequency domain likelihoods / posteriors through Monte Carlo. For the exact discrete model we adopt a general sampling interval of length h. This allow us to determine the optimal choice of h independent of the sample size. An empirical application using high frequency stock price data is presented showing the relevance of aggregation over time issues in modelling asset prices.

The paper focuses on the application of a multilevel, integrative and territorial approach to the protection of cultural heritage through planning instruments in Serbia. It points out the problems of the sectoral approach and discusses international recommendations that can be integrated into the planning methodology. The case study is the area of Djerdap National Park, which has an already established international and national importance. The research suggests that the cultural heritage in the area, with the exception of the Roman limes, is still recognized at the level of individual localities. The study emphasizes the importance of aligning all levels of governance to safeguard the whole spatial entity rather than focusing solely on its particular areas. The interna-tional and national importance of the planning area contributes to the strengthening of awareness of heritage and its institutional protection. However, the vitality of the area, which is key to its sustainable development, comes from the local level. Planning documents contribute to the inte-gration of local values and local communities into development programs and projects.

Polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PolSAR) images with dual polarization modes have great potential to map FSV by excellent penetration capabilities and distinct microwave scattering processes. However, the response of these SAR data to FSV is still uncertain at non-growing season. To further interpret the response of forest FSV to these dual-polarization SAR images, three types of dual polarization SAR images (GF-3, Sentinel-1, and ALOS-2) were initially acquired in coniferous planted forest at non-growing season. Then, sensitivity between FSV and all alternative features extracted from each type of SAR images were analyzed to express the difference of bands and polarization modes in deciduous (Larch) and evergreen (Chinese pine) forests. Finally, mapped FSVs using single and combined dual polarization images were derived by optimal feature sets and four machine learning models, respectively. The combined effects were also analyzed to clarify the response of FSV to dual polarization SAR images with bands and polarization modes at non-growing season. The results demonstrated that the difference of backscattering energy from different sensors is significant in Chinese pine forests, and the difference is gradually reduced in Larch forests. it is also implied that polarization mode is more important than penetration capability in mapping forest FSV in deciduous forest at non-growing season. By comparing the accuracy of mapped FSV using single and combined images, combined images have more capability to improve the accuracy and reliability of mapped FSV. Meanwhile, it is also confirmed that compensation effect with bands and polarization modes not only have great potential to delay the saturation phenomenon, but also have capability to reduce errors caused by over-estimation.

Research background – In the conditions of a modern developed market economy, a rather important characteristic of the activities of a public company is its activity in the stock market (market activity), which involves the development of a dividend policy, which, on the one hand, should contribute to the achievement of the main goal of financial management - maximizing the material well-being of shareholders, and, on the other hand, take into account the interests of all other stakeholders interested in the activities of a public company (including potential investors) to ensure its sustainable development in the long term. Fulfillment of this requirement is possible only within the framework of a neutral approach to the implementation of the dividend policy of a public company.Purpose – The article is devoted to the consideration of the conceptual foundations for analyzing the sensitivity of key indicators of the activity of a public company in the stock market (market activity) to the main determining factors in the context of a neutral approach to the implementation of its dividend policy.Design/methodology/approach – The methodological basis of the study was the concept of a neutral approach to the dividend policy of a public company and the concept of sensitivity analysis, developed earlier by the author of this article.Findings – It is shown that the key indicators of the market activity of a public company include the dividend yield ratio, dividend coverage ratio, the expected price of an ordinary share, the dividend yield of an ordinary share and the quote ratio of an ordinary share (price and earnings ratio per ordinary share). An analysis of the sensitivity of these indicators to the main determining factors in the context of a neutral approach to the implementation of the dividend policy of a public company involves the construction of appropriate elasticity models that allow determining the change in key indicators of market activity depending on changes in the factors that determine them. The constructed elasticity models of the key indicators of market activity listed above can be used in predictive and analytical assessments of their changes, and also make it possible to identify the causes of these changes by calculating the impact on the specified elasticity of the determinants contained in their models, performed by the appropriate methods of factor analysis, under the conditions of a neutral approach to the implementation of the dividend policy of a public company.Originality/value – The author comes to the conclusion that the elasticity models developed by him for key indicators of the activity of a public company in the stock market in terms of the main factors determining them are a fairly effective tool for managing the market activity of a public company in the context of a neutral approach to the implementation of its dividend policy.

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of information technology in management of risks in the capital market-listed company is in Tehran Stock Exchange. The purpose of the present study is an applied descriptive approach. The target population for the survey, companies that from 2009 to the first half of 2015 have been a member of the Tehran Stock Exchange, through Cochranʼs sample size of 140 companies, respectively. We used cluster sampling method. In order to collect data from two questionnaires: risk management questionnaire Foakeh (2013) has 38 items and a standard questionnaire Chanvyas (2006) has 40 items, the whole five-item Likert scale questionnaire is above has been used. Data gathered through the questionnaire, sign the application was 21spss. For inferential analysis of the variables and to analyze the data from different statistical tests and regression was used Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The results showed that information technology on risk management and its dimensions (primary market risk, market risk and the risk of secondary non-financial) impact.

Sleep quality has been directly linked to cognitive function, quality of life, and a variety of serious diseases across many clinical domains such as psychiatry and cardiology. Standard methods for assessing sleep involve overnight studies in hospital settings, which are uncomfortable, expensive, not representative of real sleep, and difficult to conduct on a large scale. Recently, a number of commercial digital devices have been developed that record physiological data which can act as a proxy for sleep quality in lieu of standard electroencephalogram recording equipment. Each device company makes different claims of accuracy and measures different features of sleep quality, and it is still unknown how well these devices correlate with one another and perform in a research setting. In this pilot study of 21 participants, we investigated whether outputs from four sensors, specifically FitBit, Withings Aura, Hexoskin, and Oura Ring, were related to known cognitive and psychological metrics, including the PSQI and N-back test. We found that sleep metrics extracted from these devices did not predict cognitive and psychological metrics well in our pilot data. However, we did identify certain signification associations, specifically the Oura Ring’s total sleep duration and efficiency in relation to the PSQI measure with p=0.004 and p=0.033, respectively. Additionally, correlation of various sleep features among the devices across the sleep cycle was almost uniformly low. These findings can hopefully be used to guide future sensor-based sleep research.