One of the major concerns in structural health management (SHM) is the early detection of a growing crack. Using this, future damage due to crack propagation can be mitigated or eliminated by implementing proper repair and maintenance. Acoustic Emission (AE) is a non-destructive testing (NDT) method with potential applications for locating and monitoring fatigue cracks. The research presented in this paper focuses on SHM using AE. A novel AE signal analysis approach was proposed in order to detect crack initiation and assess small crack lengths. Experimental investigation indicated that initiation of a crack could be identified through the statistical analysis of the resulting features of the AE signals. A probabilistic AE-based model for small fatigue crack sizing was developed and the uncertainties of the model were estimated. In addition, a probabilistic model validation approach was implemented to confirm accurate estimation of the results. The outcome of this research can be used to evaluate the integrity of structures under fatigue loading. The proposed approach can also be applied as an approach to manage health and assess prognosis of structures.

Herein, we examined the effects of weather parameters and individual clinicodemographic risk factors on hemorrhagic stroke (HS) incidence, severity on admission, and disability at discharge in a harsh desert climate. In a retrospective design we studied patients admitted to a stroke unit in Arab Emirates in 2016-2019. With a distributed lag nonlinear model we explored immediate and delayed effects of weather on stroke incidence. Supervised machine learning was used to build models predictive of scores in NIHSS and mRS scales. We assessed model performance by calculating ROC AUC, F1 scores, specificity, and sensitivity. HS risk increased after a significant change in any weather parameter. The risk was reduced below baseline after 1-week adjustment to environmental changes. Climate input from the previous 3 days yielded reliable classification models. Humidex was a better predictor of severity than air temperature, whereas body mass index, age, and time of day at stroke onset were the strongest clinical predictors. Weather parameters before admission were stronger predictors of disease severity than individual clinical factors. We addressed limitations of previous studies by analyzing a full set of climate parameters: ambient temperature, relative humidity, humidex, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed. Predictive models may help to optimize patient management and develop preventative strategies.

The COVID-19 pandemic over the past years has shown a great need for rapid, low-cost and on-site detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In this paper, an aptamer-based colloidal gold nanoparticle lateral flow test strip was well developed to realize the visual detection of wild type SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (SP) and multiple variants. Under the optimal reaction conditions, a low detection limit of SARS-CoV-2 S protein of 0.68 nM was acquired, and the actual detection recovery was 83.3% to 108.8% for real world samples. This suggests a potential tool for the prompt detection of SARS-CoV-2 with good sensitivity and accuracy, and a new method for the development of alternative antibody test strips for the detection of other viral targets.

With the rapid developments that have been made in computer vision and computer technology, semantic segmentation of high-resolution images has emerged as a mainstream and challenging task. The, segmentation of water areas remains a complex task due to the similar features between water areas or between water areas and other land objects. Meanwhile, since coastlines and riverbanks are typically presented in irregular shapes, it is difficult to obtain the categories of pixels at boundaries. This paper proposed the use of a Water-Land Boundary Attention Network (WLBANet) to improve the accuracy of pixels at boundaries between water and land. This network also reinforced the performance of contextual information extraction into distinguishing between water areas and other land objects. To prove the validity of this proposed network, WLBANet was performed on the Water Land Dataset (WLD), which is also by this paper, and which contains water areas and other land objects categories. The results demonstrates that the proposed method has significant effectiveness.

Managing a portfolio whose value closely tracks an index by trading only in a subset of the index constituents involves an NP-hard optimisation problem. In the prior literature, it has been suggested to solve this problem using sequential Monte Carlo (SMC, a.k.a. particle filter) methods. However, this literature does not take transaction costs into account, although transaction costs are the primary motivation for attempting to replicate the index by trading in a subset, rather than the full set of index constituents. This paper extends the SMC approach to index tracking to allow for proportional transaction costs and implements this extended method on empirical data for a variety stock indices. In addition to providing a more practically useful tracking strategy by allowing for transaction costs, we find that including a penalty for transaction costs in the optimisation objective can actually lead to better tracking performance.

Abstract: Global ecological concern regarding the transfer of fouling organisms to ship hulls is increasing. This study investigated the species composition, dominant species, distribution patterns, community structure, and life-cycle differences of hull-fouling macroinvertebrates on five research vessels (R/Vs: Isabu, Onnuri, Eardo, Jangmok 1, and Jangmok 2) operated by the Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST). Hull-fouling macroinvertebrates were collected three to five times on quadrats from the upper and middle sectors of the hull sides, bottom, and niche areas (the propellers and shafts and the thrusters). A total of 47 macroinvertebrate species were identified, represented by 8,519 individuals(ind.)/m2 and a biomass of 1,967 gWWt/m2 on the five vessels. The number of species, density, and biomass were greater on the coastal vessels the Eardo, Jangmok 1, and Jangmok 2 than on the ocean-going vessels the Isabu and Onnuri. Among the coastal vessels, barnacles were the most abundant and had the greatest density, while mollusks had the highest biomass. Differences between hull sectors showed that the highest species abundance and density appeared on all hulls in ports and bays where the Jangmok 1 operated, while the highest species abundance, density, and biomass were identified in the niche areas of the Eardo, which operated farther from the coast. The hull-fouling macroinvertebrates that exceeded 1% of all organisms were the barnacles Amphibalanus amphitrite, Balanus trigonus, and Amphibalanus improvisus; the polychaete Hydroides ezoensis; the bivalves Magallana gigas and Mytilus galloprovincialis; and the amphipod Jassa slatteryi. The dominant species were cosmopolitan and globally distributed, and many of them were cryptogenic. Six native species were identified: M. gigas, H. ezoensis, the amphipod Melita koreana, the isopod Cirolana ko-reana, and the barnacle B. trigonus and F. kondakovi. Eight non-indigenous species (NIS) were de-tected: barnacles A. amphitrite and A. improvisus, the bivalve M. galloprovincialis, the polychaete Perinereis nuntia, amphipods J. slatteryi and Caprella californica, and bryozoans Bugulina californica and Bugula neritina. Of the fouling macroinvertebrates found on the vessel hulls, 13% were native and 17% were NIS. The nMDS ordination analysis of the five vessels showed four clusters of fouling macroinvertebrate communities: two ocean clusters (the Isabu and Onnuri), one coastal cluster (the Eardo and Jangmok 2), and one local cluster (the Jangmok 1). More diverse communities developed on the hulls of vessels that operated locally rather than globally or in deep oceans. Spearman rank correlation showed that biological indices such as number of species, density, and biomass correlated highly and positively with the numbers of days on coastal operations and negatively with the number days on ocean operations. The species diversity index correlated positively with the total number of anchoring days and coastal operation days and negatively with the total number of operation days and ocean operation days. The macroinvertebrates differed by the area of operation, the port of anchorage, the number of days in operation and at anchor, and the hull sectors. There is no previous research data on hull-fouling macroinvertebrates in the Republic of Korea, and this study provides a basis for future studies to identify introduced species and their differences based on operation area.

The purpose of this study is to establish whether digital literacy and insurtech adoption influence insurance inclusion in Uganda. Principally, we sought to determine whether insurtech adoption mediates the nexus between digital literacy and insurance inclusion. This study adopted a cross-sectional and quantitative correlational approach. The study’s sample was 391 individuals who had used digital platforms such as mobile phones and computers to access insurance products and services in Uganda. Data were collected using structured survey questionnaires. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLSEM) was employed to test the hypothesised relationships. The results demonstrate that both digital literacy and insurtech adoption significantly and positively influence insurance inclusion. We also found digital literacy to be a significant and positive determinant of insurtech adoption. Markedly, it was found that insurtech adoption mediates the association between digital literacy and insurance inclusion in Uganda. However, this study was conducted in a developing country with an underdeveloped insurance market and with low technological advancement. This may affect generalisation of the study findings. This study’s novelty lies in establishing how digital literacy and insurtech adoption interplay to influence insurance inclusion in Uganda. This is the first study to examine the effect of digital literacy and insurtech adoption on insurance inclusion.

In order to correct attenuated millimeter-wavelength (Ka-band) radar data and address the problem of instability, an attenuation correction methodology (attenuation correction with variation trend constraint; VTC) was developed. Using synchronous observation conditions and multi-band radars, the VTC method adopts the variation trends of reflectivity in X-band radar data captured with wavelet transform as a constraint to adjust reflectivity factors of millimeter-wavelength radar. The correction was evaluated by comparing reflectivities obtained by millimeter-wavelength cloud radar and X-band weather radar. Experiments showed that attenuation was a major contributory factor in the different reflectivities of the two radars when relatively intense echoes exist, and the attenuation correction developed in this study significantly improved data quality for millimeter-wavelength radar. Reflectivity differences between the two radars were reduced and reflectivity correlations were enhanced. Errors caused by attenuation were eliminated, while variation details in the reflectivity factors were retained. The VTC method is superior to the bin-by-bin method in terms of correction amplitude and can be used for attenuation correction of shorter wavelength radar assisted by longer wavelength radar data.

The Solvency II regulatory framework specifies procedures and parameters for determining solvency capital requirements (SCRs) for insurance companies. The proposed standard SCR calculations involve two steps. The Value–at–Risk (VaR) of each risk driver is measured and, in a second step, all components are aggregated to the company’s overall SCR, using the Standard Formula. This formula has two inputs: the VaRs of the individual risk drivers and their correlations. The appropriate calibration of these input parameters has been the purpose of various Quantitative Impact Studies that have been conducted during recent years. This paper demonstrates that the parameter calibration for the equity–risk module—overall, with about 25%, the most significant risk component—is seriously flawed, giving rise to spurious and highly erratic parameter values. As a consequence, an implementation of the Standard Formula with the currently proposed calibration settings for equity–risk is likely to produce inaccurate, biased and, over time, highly erratic capital requirements.

BACKGROUND Detecting total cholesterol in dried blood spots could aid in identifying individuals with a high likelihood of familial hypercholesterolemia and could be used as a screening measure. This study aims to assess the diagnostic accuracy of dried blood spots on Whatman 903 paper cards using a manual enzymatic technique. METHODS A total of 394 samples collected as serum and dried blood spots were compared. Cholesterol was determined in serum using the automated reference method, while cholesterol on paper was measured using a manual enzymatic method. Within- and between-day diagnostic variability were analyzed. The correlation between both methods was assessed using Passing-Bablok regression and Bland-Altman plot. Internal validation of our correlation formula was performed on 149 samples, along with external validation of the formula proposed by Corso et al. RESULTS The within- and between-day coefficient of variation was found to be lower than 10.14% and 14.09%, respectively. Method comparison yielded an area under the curve of 0.976, with a standard error of 0.009. Passing-Bablok regression indicated a precision of 0.803 and an accuracy of 0.96. Internal validation precision was measured at 0.716. Regarding internal validation, calculated cholesterol with our regression line did not differ from serum cholesterol analysis, while significant differences were observed in calculated cholesterol levels using the external formula. CONCLUSIONS Total cholesterol analysis in dot blood spots demonstrates high precision and reproducibility. This method reliably enables the incorporation of this biological marker into neonatal screening for familial hypercholesterolemia detection.

To decrease oral pathogens and increase the number of beneficial bacteria, probiotics and bioactive compounds made via microbial bioconversion are recently used. In addition, the interest regarding probiotics-mediated bioconversion with popular medicinal plants is increasing. These compounds produced during the process exhibit synergistic effect and enhance a variety of biological activities including pathogen inhibition in host. Therefore, we developed bioconverted milk with high inhibitory activity against oral pathogens and α-glucosidase. Lactiplantibacillus plantarum SMFM2016-RK was chosen as the probiotic due to its beneficial characteristics such as high acid and bile tolerance, antioxidant activity, and α-glucosidase inhibition. Based on the minimal bactericidal concentration against three oral pathogens, the following appropriate concentrations of Artemisia herba-alba extract were added to milk: 5 mg/mL of A. herba-alba ethanol extract and 25 mg/mL of A. herba-alba hot-water extract. Four bioconverted milks (BM), BM1, BM2, BM3, and BM4, were produced by combining L. plantarum SMFM2016-RK alone, L. plantarum SMFM2016-RK and ethanol extract, L. plantarum SMFM2016-RK and hot-water extract, and L. plantarum SMFM2016-RK with both extracts. As a result of antimicrobial activity, BM3 inhibited the growth of Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans and Porphyromonas gingivalis the most, and BM4 suppressed the growth of Fusobacterium nucleatum the most. In addition, bioconverted milk containing A. herba-alba (BM2, BM3, and BM4) inhibited α-glucosidase more effectively than BM1. In conclusion, A. herba-alba-added milk bioconverted by L. plantarum SMFM2016-RK displayed the growth inhibitory effect on oral pathogens and the α-glucosidase inhibitory activity, thus it necessitates to evaluate the effects on the alleviation of oral diseases and glycemic control through future animal experiments.

Insurance serves as a mechanism to effectively manage and transfer revenue-related risks. We conducted a study to explore the potential financial advantages of index insurance, which protects agricultural producers, specifically sugarcane, against excessive rainfall. Creation of the index involved utilizing generalized additive regression models, allowing for consideration of non-linear effects and quantile generalized additive regression to evaluate relationships with lower quantiles, such as low yield events. To quantify the financial benefits for farmers, should they opt for excessive rainfall index insurance, we employed efficiency analysis based on metrics such as Conditional Tail Expectation, Certainty Equivalence of Revenue, and Mean Root Square Loss. The results of the regression model demonstrate its accuracy in predicting sugar cane yields, with a split testing R2 of 0.691. Additionally, our study suggests that this type of insurance could also apply to sugarcane farmers and other crop producers in regions where extreme rainfall threatens the financial sustainability of agricultural production.

Deployments of real-world object-detection systems often experience a degradation in performance over time due to concept drift. Systems that leverage thermal cameras are especially susceptible because the respective thermal signatures of objects and their surroundings are highly sensitive to environmental changes. In this study, a conditioning method is investigated. The method aims to guide the training loop of thermal object detection systems by leveraging an auxiliary branch to predict the weather, while directly or indirectly conditioning the baseline detection system. Leveraging such an approach to train detection networks does not necessarily improve the performance of native architectures, however, it can be observed that conditioned networks manage to extract a signal from thermal images that guides the network to detect objects that baseline models miss. As the extracted signal appears to be quite noisy and very challenging to regress accurately, further work is needed to identify an ideal optimization vector.

Deploying search and rescue (SAR) dogs in disaster situations is crucial for effective rescue missions. This study delves into the challenges and obstacles encountered during the use of SAR dogs, particularly focusing on the earthquake that hit Turkey in February 2023. By employing a case study approach, the research explores various factors that impact the efficiency and safety of SAR dog operations, such as environmental conditions, equipment needs, cultural perceptions, and logistical hurdles. Environmental conditions such as extreme weather, hazardous materials, and unstable structures present significant risks to both the dogs and their handlers. The adequacy of equipment, including protective gear and medical supplies, is critical for ensuring the safety and efficiency of rescue operations. Logistical challenges, including the transportation and care of dogs in disaster zones, further complicate their deployment. Cultural barriers also play a crucial role, as perceptions of dogs vary widely across different communities, potentially affecting the acceptance and integration of canine units in rescue efforts. The case study of the earthquake in Turkey highlights these issues, showcasing the successes and setbacks experienced by international rescue teams. The findings indicate that although SAR dogs are invaluable in locating survivors, they face significant dangers, including hazardous materials, extreme weather, and physical injuries. Additionally, cultural differences and logistical issues complicate their deployment. This paper highlights the necessity for improved training, protective measures, and international standards to ensure SAR dogs' well-being and effectiveness in disaster response efforts. The study's implications suggest that addressing these challenges can markedly enhance the preparedness and resilience of SAR teams, leading to more efficient and safer rescue operations in future disaster scenarios.

(1) Background: Second Victims are health care workers negatively affected by adverse events and are prone to developing dysfunctional coping strategies compromising not only their own, but also patient safety. An effective way to address this issue is the implementation of peer support programs. This paper reports on the effectiveness of a peer support program at the Austrian Hietzing Clinic (KHI). (2) Methods: Telephone interviews were carried out after peer support sessions using a questionnaire. Descriptive analysis was carried out reporting frequencies and proportions for nominal variables, means with standard deviations for ordinal and interval-scaled variables. (3) Results: So far, 45 peer supporters have completed telephone interviews after a peer support session. The main reasons for the session were bad news from the private sphere and death of a patient. The peer supporters rated the helpfulness of the sessions for their colleagues as very high while not feeling very burdened themselves afterwards. (4) Conclusions: Underutilization of the program is probable. However, the high rating of helpfulness of the carried-out sessions by the peer supporters in combination with them not feeling very burdened, shows that the program is safe for the peer supporters and an upscaling is warranted.

The understanding of weather and climate extremes provides academics, decision makers, international development agencies, nongovernmental organizations and civil society the necessary information for monitoring and giving early warning to prevent or minimize the risks associated with weather related hazards. Different researches were carried out to provide vital information that will further enhance the assessment of vulnerability and its impacts. Lack of proper understanding of weather and climate extremes was realized to be responsible for the huge and devastating losses that could have being averted or minimized over the past decades. Different countries and institutions have put in place a number of ways to increase sensitization and awareness of weather extremes. This became necessary in order to reduce the losses associated with these extremes both on local and regional scales.

The North China Plain is among the regions most afflicted by ground fissure disasters in China. Recent urbanization has accelerated ground fissure activity in the three counties of the northern North China Plain, posing significant threats to both the natural environment and socioeconomic sustainability. Despite the increased attention, a lack of comprehensive understanding persists due to delayed recognition and limited research. This study conducted field visits and geological surveys across 43 villages and 80 sites to elucidate the spatial distribution patterns of ground fissures in the aforementioned counties. By integrating these findings with regional geological data, we formulated a causative model to explain ground fissure formation. Our analysis reveals a concentration of ground fissures near the Niuxi and Rongxi faults, with the former exhibiting the most extensive distribution. The primary manifestations of ground fissures include linear cracks and patch-shaped collapse pits, predominantly oriented in east-west and north-south directions, indicating tensile failure with minimal vertical displacement. Various factors contribute to ground fissure development, including fault activity, ancient river channel distribution, bedrock undulations, rainfall, and ground settlement. Fault activity establishes a concealed fracture system in shallow geotechnical layers, laying the groundwork for ground fissure formation. Additionally, the distribution of ancient river channels and bedrock undulations modifies regional stress fields, further facilitating ground fissure emergence. Rainfall and differential ground settlement serve as triggering mechanisms, exposing ground fissures at the surface. This research offers novel insights into the causative mechanisms of ground fissures in the northern North China Plain, providing valuable scientific evidence for mitigating ground fissure disasters during the urbanization process in the region.

This study critically explores the legislative frameworks and national regulations of Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia concerning the engagement, training, and responsibilities of search and rescue dogs and their handlers. The goal is to offer a thorough understanding of how these dogs and their handlers are engaged, trained, and managed in each country. By carefully analyzing the legal foundations, the study aims to clarify the rights, duties, and responsibilities of all parties involved, ensuring that search and rescue dog deployments are conducted within a structured and lawful framework. Such an understanding is crucial for improving disaster management and ensuring a coordinated response to various emergencies. The findings reveal that although each country has strong legal provisions for deploying search and rescue dogs, there are significant differences in the detail and scope of these regulations. Slovenia is notable for its detailed guidelines, regular evaluations, and licensing processes, setting a high standard. Croatia benefits from strong institutional support and active international collaboration, which greatly enhances its disaster response capabilities. On the other hand, Serbia, despite having a solid foundational framework, could improve by better coordinating with non-governmental organizations and aligning more closely with international standards. Key areas for improvement include harmonizing standards, enhancing training programs, increasing public awareness, better resource allocation, and adopting new technologies. By addressing these issues, Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia can further strengthen their legal and institutional frameworks, ensuring their search and rescue teams are better prepared for disasters. This study emphasizes the need for continuous improvement through collaboration, standardization, and innovation to maximize the effectiveness of search and rescue operations involving dogs.

Considering characteristics of high river density, special underlying surface in plain river network region, and municipal drainage system function, river network drainage unit model is proposed, which is defined as a region surrounded by main river or embankment. Flood storage variety and control projects regulation of small rivers in each unit is simulated. With drainage catchment as an object, according to its drainage capacity, simplified municipal drainage model was developed. Coupling river network drainage unit model, simplified municipal drainage model and 2D flood routing model, urban flood analysis model for plain tidal river network region was developed, which could be applied to analyzing flood from upstream river, storm surge and local rainfall. Demonstration research was carried out in Puxi flood protected area in Shanghai.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission-induced climate change, particularly occurring since the mid-20th century has been considerably affecting short-term weather conditions, such as increasing weather variability, and incidence of extreme weather-related events. Milk production is sensitive to such changes. In this study, we use spatial panel econometric models, Spatial Error Model (SEM) and Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), with a panel dataset at the state-level varying over seasons, to estimate the relationship between weather indicators and milk productivity, in an effort to reduce the bias of omitted climatic variables that can be time-varying and spatially correlated and cannot be directly captured by conventional panel data models. We find an inverse U-shaped effect of summer heat stress on milk production per cow (MPC), indicating that milk production reacts positively to a low-level increase in summer heat stress, and then MPC declines as heat stress continues increasing beyond a threshold value of 72. Additionally, fall precipitation exhibits an inverse U-shaped effect on MPC, showing that milk yield increases at a decreasing rate until fall precipitation rises to 14 inches and then over that threshold milk yield declines at an increasing rate. We also find that, relative to conventional panel data models, spatial panel econometric models could improve prediction performance by leading to smaller in-sample and out-sample root mean squared errors. Our study contributes to the literature by exploring the feasibility of promising spatial panel models and resulting in estimating weather influences on milk productivity with high model predicting performance.

Disasters, whether natural or human-induced, pose significant threats to human lives, property, and infrastructure. This study examines the effectiveness of search and rescue (SAR) dogs in locating survivors during disasters, with a focus on the experiences in Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia. The primary goals are to evaluate training protocols, operational challenges, success rates, and the overall impact of SAR dogs in disaster scenarios. The findings indicate that SAR dogs greatly enhance the efficiency of disaster response operations. Their superior sense of smell, agility, and ability to manoeuvre through complex terrains make them crucial for quickly locating survivors. However, the performance of SAR dogs is affected by various factors, including the quality of their training, environmental conditions, and the coordination between handlers and dogs. The research highlights several challenges encountered by SAR dogs, such as extreme weather conditions, hazardous terrains, fatigue, and psychological stress. Additionally, limited resources and inconsistent training standards can hinder their effectiveness. The study underscores the importance of standardized training protocols, increased resource allocation, and better coordination among SAR teams. By addressing these challenges, the efficiency of SAR dogs can be further optimized, resulting in more effective disaster responses and higher survival rates. SAR dogs play an essential role in disaster management in Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia. Ongoing investment in their training and welfare, along with improved operational protocols, will ensure their crucial contribution to saving lives during disasters. This study contributes to a broader understanding of the effectiveness of SAR dogs and provides practical recommendations for enhancing disaster response strategies.

The spectra and global distributions of the X-ray emissions generated by the solar wind charge-exchange (SWCX) process in the terrestrial magnetosheath are investigated based on a global hybrid model and a global geocoronal hydrogen model. The solar wind O6+ ions which are the primary charge state for oxygen ions in solar wind are considered. The line emissivity of the charge-exchange born O5+ ions are calculated by Spectral Analysis System for Astrophysical and Lab oratory (SASAL). It is found that the emission lines from the O5+ ranges from 105.607 to 118.291 eV with the strong line at 107.047 eV. We then simulated the magnetosheath X-ray emission intensity distributions with a virtual camera at two positions of north pole and dusk at six stages during the passing of a perpendicular interplanetary shock combined with a tangential discontinuity structure through the Earth’s magnetosphere. During this process, the X-ray emission intensity increases with time, and the maximum value is 27.11 keV cm-2 s-1 sr-1 on the dayside, which is 4.5 times that before the solar wind structure reaches the Earth. A clear shock structure can be seen in the magnetosheath and moves earthward. The maximum emission intensity seen at dusk is always higher than that seen at north pole.

This paper presents the results of quantitative research examining the impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on community resilience to disasters. The survey was carried out utilising a questionnaire distributed and subsequently collected online from 321 participants during January 2024. The study employed an adapted version of the '5S' social resilience framework, encompassing five sub-dimensions – social structure (10 variables), social capital (9 variables), social mechanisms (17 variables), social equity and diversity (13 variables), and social belief (13 variables). This customized framework includes 62 indicators, providing a thorough assessment of community (social) disaster resilience in the research context. To explore the relationship between predictors and community (social) disaster resilience in Serbia, their attitudes towards the mentioned five sub-dimensions, as well as their engagement in preventive measures and their perception of resilience to various disasters with a particular focus on demographic and socio-economic impacts, statistical methods including t-tests, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and multivariate linear regression were employed. The results of the multivariate regressions across various community disaster resilience subscales indicate that age emerged as the most significant predictor for the social structure subscale. At the same time, education stood out as the primary predictor for the social capital subscale. Additionally, employment status proved to be the most influential predictor for both social mechanisms and social equity-diversity subscales, with property ownership being the key predictor for the social beliefs sub-scale. Despite being considered in the analyses, gender, marital status, income level, and number of household members did not emerge as the most significant predictors across the investigated community (social) disaster resilience subscales. The determined mean value of the community (social) disaster resilience index is M = 2.62, and the findings reveal that participants assigned the highest ratings to the social beliefs subscale (M = 2.76), while the lowest values were observed in the social structure subscale (M = 2.46). Findings can be used to create strategies and interventions aimed at enhancing the resilience of communities in Serbia by addressing the intricate interplay between demographic characteristics, socio-economic factors, and their ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from different disasters.

The statistical analysis of impact of the top 50 solar flares of X-class (1997-2023) on the global seismic activity, as well as on the earthquake preparation zones located in illuminated part of the globe and in the area of 5000 km radius around the subsolar point was carried out. It is shown by a method of epoch superposition that for all cases the increase of seismicity is observed, especially in the region around the subsolar point (up to 38%) during 10 days after the solar flare in comparison with preceding 10 days. The case study of aftershock sequence of strong M=9.1 earthquake (Su-matra-Andaman Islands, 26.12.2004) after the solar flare of X7.2 class (20.01.2005) demonstrated that the number of aftershocks with magnitude M≥2.5 increases more than 20 times after the solar flare with a delay of 7 days. For the case of the Darfield earthquake (M=7.1, 04.09.2010, New Zealand) it was shown that strong solar flares of class X and M probably triggered two strong aftershocks (M>6) with the same delay of 6 days on the Port Hills fault, which is the most sensitive to external electromagnetic impact from point of view of the fault electrical conductivity and orientation. Based on the obtained results the possible application of natural electromagnetic triggering of earthquakes is discussed for a short-term earthquake prediction using confidently recorded strong external electromagnetic triggering impacts on the specific earthquake preparation zones, as well as ionospheric perturbations due to aerosol emission from the earthquake sources recorded by satellites.

Natural risks encompass a range of disasters and dangers, requiring comprehensive management through assessments, anticipations, and advanced alert systems. Our specific focus is on landslides in challenging terrains. The evaluation of landslide risks employs sophisticated multicriteria models, such as the weighted sum approach, integrating qualitative parameters. Despite the challenges of the rugged terrain in Northern Algeria, it paradoxically hosts a dense population attracted by valuable hydro-agricultural resources. Our research is dedicated to studying landslide risks in these areas, particularly in the Mila region, with the aim of constructing a statistical model integrating considerations of both danger and vulnerability. This complex process identifies threats and their determining factors, including geomorphology and socio-economic conditions. The result is a valuable tool for effective risk management, strengthening safety and resilience against natural disasters. By understanding the intricate interplay of geological, environmental, and social elements, our research can contribute to the development of targeted interventions, fostering a more resilient community in the face of natural adversities.

A joint analysis of solar wind, geomagnetic field, and earthquake catalog data showed that before the catastrophic M7.8 and M7.5 Kahramanmaras earthquake sequence on February 6, 2023, the closed strong magnetic storm occurred on November 7, 2022, SYM/H=-117 nT. Storm started at 08:04 UT. At this time, the high latitudinal part of Turkey's longitudinal region of future epicenters was located under the polar cusp, where the solar wind plasma would directly access the Earth's environment. The time delay between storm onset and earthquake occurrence was ~91 days. We analyzed all seven strong (M7+) earthquakes from 1967 to 2020 to verify the initial findings. A similar pattern has been revealed for all events. The time delay between magnetic storm onset and earthquake occurrence varies from some days to some months. To continue these investigations, a retrospective analysis of seismic and other geophysical parameters just after preceded geomagnetic storms in the epicenter areas is desirable.

In the last decades farm animals kept in confined and mechanically ventilated livestock buildings are increasingly confronted with heat stress (HS) due to global warming. These adverse conditions cause a depression of animal health and welfare and a reduction of the performance up to an increase of the mortality. To facilitate sound management decisions, livestock farmers need relevant arguments, which quantify the expected economic risk and the corresponding uncertainty. The economic risk was determined for the pig fattening sector based on the probability of HS and the calculated decrease in the gross margin. The model calculation for confined livestock buildings showed, that HS indices calculated by easily available meteorological parameters can be used for assessment quantification of indoor HS, which is so far difficult to determine. These weather-related HS indices can be applied not only for an economic risk assessment but also for a weather-index based insurance for livestock farms. Based on the temporal trend between 1981 and 2017, a simple model was derived to assess the likelihood of HS for 2020 and 2030. Due to global warming, the return period for a 90-percentile HS index is reduced from 10 years in 2020 to 3-4 years in 2030. The economic impact of HS on livestock farms was calculated by the relationship between an HS index based on the temperature-humidity index (THI) and the reduction of the gross margin. From the likelihood of the HS and this economic impact function, the probability of the economic risk could be determined. The reduction of the gross margin for a 10 year return period was determined for 1980 with 0.27 € per year and animal place and increased by the 20-fold to 5.13 € per year and animal place in 2030.

Weather-related risks in aviation are one of the main causes of accidents worldwide. This article aims to analyze aviation risks resulting from adverse weather conditions, using the case study of the Pucallpa accident that occurred on August 23, 2005, in eastern Peru. In this analysis, we have determined the relationship between meteorological information and aviation risks, presented a matrix of risks associated with the most predominant meteorological variables at Pucallpa airport, and drawn up three maps of meteorological risks indicating the month of the year in which their incidence is most relevant. Finally, we conclude that it is essential to emphasize the importance of considering the prevailing weather conditions at Pucallpa airport to help mitigate the potential risks that may occur during different phases of the flight.

In this paper major machine learning (ML) tools and the most important applications developed elsewhere for numerical weather and climate modeling systems (NWCMS) are reviewed. NWCMSs are briefly introduced. The most important papers published in this field in recent years are reviewed. The advantages and limitations of the ML approach in applications to NWCMS are briefly discussed. Currently, this field is experiencing explosive growth. Several important papers are published every week. Thus, this paper should be considered a simple introduction to the problem.

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, machine learning is gradually becoming popular in predictions in all walks of life. In meteorology, It is gradually competing with traditional climate predictions dominated by physical models. This survey aims to consolidate the current understanding of Machine Learning (ML) applications in weather and climate prediction—a field of growing importance across multiple sectors including agriculture and disaster management. Building upon an exhaustive review of more than 20 methods highlighted in existing literature, this survey pinpointed eight techniques that show particular promise for improving the accuracy of both short-term weather and medium-to-long-term climate forecasts. According to the survey, while ML demonstrates significant capabilities in short-term weather prediction, its application in medium-to-long-term climate forecasting remains limited, constrained by factors such as intricate climate variables and data limitations. Current literature tends to focus narrowly on either short-term weather or medium-to-long-term climate forecasting, often neglecting the relationship between the two, as well as general neglect of modelling structure and recent advances. By providing an integrated analysis of models spanning different time scales, this survey aims to bridge these gaps, thereby serving as a meaningful guide for future interdisciplinary research in this rapidly evolving field.

We identified six natural "control knobs" for global weather and climate, which clearly regulate, increase and decrease global temperatures, thus performing a true temperature "control" on Earth. Identified control knobs act as Earth's orbital forcing. We present a detailed Earth orbital model, from where the analysis proceeds. Based on our orbital model, we compare meteorological data from all over the globe, in order to detect orbital forcing fingerprints. Ninety temperature graphs and bar charts demonstrate the results. Empirical meteorological data covers the Pacific ocean, the Atlantic ocean, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent, and presents land based meteorological measurements from all continents for the year 2020, as well as multi-decadal data from global daily temperature datasets. A supplementary file provides another 100 additional graphs of weather data and temperature charts. The global orbital "temperature control" is clearly observable in all graphs and charts. Until today, orbital forcing has not been integrated in weather models and CMIP6 climate models.It is concluded that the proposed new orbital forcing should be part of weather and climate forecasting models.

In every economy, Stock markets are part of the key elements the build it up. A few decades ago, there has been a significant change in Ghana stock market returns (GSE). Our study examines the statistical and economic significance of investor sentiment, based on weather conditions/changes, on stock market returns. OLS models, assisted by unit root tests were employed in analyzing the data obtained from the Ghana stock exchange platform from 2000 to 2017. From our literature review, we discovered that investors’ perceptions play a central role in finalizing the direction of stock market returns. Regarding our empirical results, we tested whether weather variations influence the investment decisions of investors; we discovered that temperature and cloud cover significantly influences stock market returns. This is because of mood changes is associated with weather conditions variations. However, sunshine per our regression coefficient shows a statistically insignificant impact on investors’ investment choices. Precipitation to a large extend influence stock market activities further affecting its results negatively as our regression results depicted. We concluded stock brokerage firms, companies, and investors (foreign/local) must incorporate weather changes/effects when strategizing about their investment outcomes.

We consider an alternative hypothesis of crater formation -- through an electric discharge machining (EDM) of the celestial bodies' surfaces. The source of the energy and the current itself may lie in the plasma infalling on a celestial body (from an extremely strong solar outburst or a nearby supernova). This mechanism may have been even more important than impact cratering in the early Solar System, with potential implications to the history of the dynamics of the System itself and solar activity in particular. In this light, the conclusion that shocked and metamorphosed minerals found within crater sites are evidence of hypervelocity impacts might be reconsidered. There are ambiguities that remain among sources of mineralogical formations. This study is ongoing with details of investigations supporting a new approach to crater formation not yet exhausted. Apart from mineralogical analysis and theoretical considerations regarding the large scale crater formation, we present a description of experimental studies of EDM acting at low pressures. Experimental results are made with crude setups and could easily be replicated on a larger scale with valuable research potential, as there is a well understood relation between the crater size and the energy needed for its production.

Weather forecast has a big impact on the global economy, accurate and timely weather forecast is required by all, it affects many aspects of human livelihood and lifestyle, it also plays a critical role in decision making for severe weather management and for primary and secondary sectors like agriculture, transportation, tourism, and industry as they rely on good weather conditions for production and operations. The erratic and uncertain complex nature of the weather makes traditional weather forecasting tedious and a challenging task, traditional weather forecast involves applying technology and scientific knowledge on numerical weather prediction (NWP), and weather radar to solve complex mathematical equations to obtain forecasts based on current weather conditions. These traditional processes utilize expensive, complex physical and computational power to produce forecasts, which can be inaccurate and have various catastrophic impacts on society. In this research, a machine learning-based weather forecasting model was proposed, the model was implemented using 4 classifier algorithms which include Random Forest classifier, Decision Tree Algorithm, Gaussian Naïve Bayes model, and Gradient Boosting Classifier, these algorithms were trained using a publicly available dataset from Kaggle for the city of Seattle for the period 2012 to 2015. The model’s performance was evaluated; the Gaussian Naive Bayes algorithm proved to be the best performing algorithm with a predictive accuracy of 84.153 %.

The application of antimicrobials in aquaculture primarily aims to prevent and treat bacterial infections in fish. Inappropriate use of antimicrobials in fish farming may result in the emergence of zoonotic antibiotic-resistant bacteria and subsequent transmission of resistant strains to humans via food consumption. From recently, AMR emerged as a significant public health concern in the aquaculture ecosystem and fisheries. The aquatic environment serves as a potential reservoir for resistant bacteria, with aquaculture practices providing an ideal breeding ground for AMR due to the excessive use of antimicrobials to prevent and treat diseases. The mutual inter-connection of intensive fish farming systems with terrestrial environments, food processing industry and human population creates pathways for the transmission of resistant bacteria, exacerbating the problem further. One Health concept, which recognizes the interconnectedness of human, animal and environmental health, enables a holistic approach to address the challenges posed by AMR. By understanding the evolution of such approach, the future of aquaculture, being the important source of a global animal protein supply, can be safeguarded. Risk mitigation strategies for AMR should be based on One Health concept to contribute to sustainable aquaculture practices that protect human and animal health, ensure food safety and protection of environment.

Background: Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) believe that diet is a key factor in the pathogenesis of their disease and in worsening their symptoms; they often follow restrictive diets that can lead to malnutrition, anxiety, and stress. Recent studies have found an association between eating disorders and IBD, particularly anorexia nervosa and ARFID (Avoidant Restrictive Food Intake Disorder). None of these studies report the association with orthorexia nervosa, that is the obsession with healthy and natural foods. Aim: to assess the risk of orthorexia nervosa in patients with IBD. Methods: 158 consecutive subjects were recruited, including 113 patients diagnosed with IBD and 45 controls. The Donini standardized questionnaire ORTO-15 was administered to assess the risk of orthorexia; clinical and demographic data were also collected. Results: patients with IBD have a prevalence of orthorexia of 77%, significantly higher than the 47% observed in the control group. In patients with IBD, the risk of orthorexia is associated with lower BMI and history of previous surgery. Conclusion: Many patients with IBD develop orthorexia nervosa that impacts the patient's psychological and social sphere, exposes them to a high risk of nutritional deficiencies, and affects quality of life. Further high quality studies are warranted to evaluate the clinical impact of orthorexia and its correlation with clinical features and frank eating disorders.

The conformity assessment of products or a measured value with the given standards is carried out based on the global risk of producers and consumers calculation. A product may conform to specifications but be falsely rejected as non-conforming. This is about the producer's risk. If a product doesn't meet the requirements but is falsely accepted as conforming, that poses a risk to the consumer. The conventional approach to risk assessment, which yields only a single numerical value for the global risk of producers and consumers, is naturally extended, and utilized for assessing risk in measurement models with linear regression. The outcomes of the two-dimensional extension, along a moderate scale, are the parabolas with an opening upwards. Risk surfaces were obtained through three-dimensional extension over the area limited by the moderate scale and guard band axes. Four models with different ranges of tolerance intervals were used to test this innovative method of risk assessment in linear regression. The corresponding standard measurement uncertainties are determined by applying a simplified measurement model with the use of comprehensive data on the measurement performance and by determining measurement uncertainty derived from consideration of the functional relationship obtained by linear regression analysis. Models that utilize information from linear regression analysis to determine measurement uncertainty are biased towards risks at the edges of the moderate scale. Testing the model's performances with metrics related to the confusion matrix, such as the F1 score, further substantiated this assertion. The diagnostic odds ratio has been proven to be extremely effective in identifying the curve along the guard band axis, along which the global risks of producers and consumers are at their lowest.

Occupational accidents, despite continuous safety updates, are still a scourge in the occupational and forensic spheres, constituting, among other things, the subject of a large share of litigation. Demographic data can help to understand the areas where the application of health surveillance is lacking. This meta-analysis sets out to analyze data from studies on accidents at work, focusing on the correlation between the areas in which accidents occur and whether or not personal safety equipment is used, about the different regulations in force. For the selection of the data, a systematic review was carried out according to the PRISMA guidelines, with the primary objective of identifying the trend of occupational accidents in specific geographical areas, which differ in terms of the attention paid to preventive aspects. The data we highlighted showed, regarding the type of accident, substantial differences between low-income countries and industrialized countries (stratified according to the Human Development Index) and, an overall indifference as to whether or not individual safety devices were used, revealing that, despite the continuous normative evolution in the field of safety at work, even today, the investigative data on the actual application of the regulations, during accidents at work, is underestimated and little researched.

This paper studies pandemic viruses that spread during the period (1759–2020) according to solar activity cycles. Our findings and results include the following: (1) The severity of a pandemic correlates negatively with the strength of solar activity; (2) Pandemic viruses are classified into three types based on their compatibility with solar activity associations. Most of them spread through the quiet Sun, where viruses survive better in cold and rainy weather, and in stable geomagnetic fields without strong disturbances; (3) The emergence of new strains of influenza viruses was manifested in two ways. First, the annual epidemics due to antigenic drift. Second, pandemics recur every 1–12 solar cycles (about 11–120 years) due to viral reassortment of new subtypes, which results in antigenic shifts; (4) Pandemic viruses have two groups according to their recurring period: first, recurring in nine solar cycles; second, recurring in twelve solar cycles. Furthermore, we reassort pandemic viruses from their previous spread in the same periodic classification. Moreover, we derive a periodicity formula for each subtype of the pandemic virus as a spread date.

A time integration scheme based on semi-Lagrangian advection and Laplace transform adjustment has been implemented in a baroclinic primitive equation model. The semi-Lagrangian scheme makes it possible to use large time steps. However, errors arising from the semi-implicit scheme increase with the time step size. In contrast, the errors using the Laplace transform adjustment remain relatively small for typical time steps used with semi-Lagrangian advection. Numerical experiments confirm the superior performance of the Laplace transform scheme relative to the semi-implicit reference model. The algorithmic complexity of the scheme is comparable to the reference model, making it computationally competitive, and indicating its potential for integrating weather and climate prediction models.

Living organisms with developed endocrine systems react in a complex way to environmental changes. Changing atmospheric pressure causes different blood pressures or hormone levels; carcinogenic radiation modifies the structure of DNA. Charged particles and ions act as neurotransmitters and block certain types of protein channels and receptors. A high concentration of carbon dioxide has an indirect effect on both blood pressure and neuron activity. The bioelectric nature of living tissues highlights the complexity of the connection between the dynamic physical environment and biological systems. Recent results from studies on the interactions and connections mentioned above are reviewed in this paper.

In the past two decades the world experienced an exceptional number of unprecedented extreme weather events, some causing major human suffering and economic damage, such as the March 2012 heat event, which was called “Meteorological March Madness.” From the beginning of space era a correlation of solar flares with pressure changes in atmosphere within 2–3 days or even less was reported. In this study we wanted to test the possible relation of highly warm weather events in North-East America with Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. For this reason we compared ground temperatures T_M in Madison, Wisconsin, with energetic particle fluxes P measured by the EPAM instrument onboard the ACE spacecraft. In particular, we elaborated case events and the results of a statistical study of the SEP events related with the largest (Dst ≤ −150nT) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-induced geomagnetic storms, between with the years 1997–2015. The most striking result of our statistical analysis is a very significant positive correlation between the highest temperature increase_. ΔT_M and the time duration of the temperature increase ΔT_M (r = 0.8, p <0.001) at “winter times” ( r = 0.5, p , 0.01 for the whole sample of 26 SEP examined events). The time response of T_M to P was found to be in general short (a few days), but in the case of March 2015, during a gradual P8 increase, a cross-correlation test indicated highest c.c. within 1 day (p < 0.05). The March 2012 “meteorological anomaly” was elaborated in the case of South-East Europe, where, beside a period of strong winds and rainfall (6-13.3.2012), intense precipitation in North-East Greece (Alexandroupoli) were found to be correlated with distinct high energy flux enhancements. A rough theoretical interpretation is discussed for the space—atmospheric extreme weather relationship we found. However, much work should be done to achieve early warning of space weather dependent extreme meteorological events. Such future advances in understanding the relationships between space weather and extreme atmospheric events would improve atmospheric models and help people’s safety, health and life.

Stroke constitutes a significant public health concern due to its impact on mortality and morbidity. This study investigates the utility of machine learning algorithms in predicting stroke and identifying key risk factors using data from the Suita study, comprising 7,389 participants and 53 variables. Initially, unsupervised K-prototype clustering categorized participants into risk clusters, while five supervised models including Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Light Gradient Boosted Machine (Light-GBM) were employed to predict stroke outcomes. Stroke incidence disparities among identified risk clusters using the unsupervised K-prototype clustering method are substantial, according to the findings. Supervised learning, particularly RF was a preferable option because of the higher levels of performance metrics. The Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method identified age, systolic blood pressure, hypertension, estimated glomerular filtration rate, metabolic syndrome, and blood glucose level as key predictors of stroke, aligning with findings from the unsupervised clustering approach in high-risk groups. Additionally, previously unidentified risk factors such as elbow joint thickness, fructosamine, hemoglobin, and calcium level demonstrate potential for stroke prediction. In conclusion, machine learning facilitated accurate stroke risk predictions and highlighted potential biomarkers, offering a data-driven framework for risk assessment and biomarker discovery.

Cervical cancer is one of the ailments that endangers the health of women all over the world and causes infertility. Fortunately, this disease can be avoided. Both the results and participation rates of the current preventative strategy remain poor. Hence, preventative or early detection methods remain challenging and open. In gynecology and computer science fields, few studies on identifying cervical cancer are based on behavior risk factor and machine learning. Moreover, various social and behavioral aspects might often make it more difficult to detect cervical cancer especially in low‑ and middle‑income countries (LMICs). Accordingly, focus on predicting the presence of cervical cancer through behavioral risk factors is the basic structure of this research. We proposed an approach to classify cervical cancer from a social-behavioral perspective using logistic regression to predict cervical cancer. We got significantly improved outcomes than the existing methods. Moreover, we used feature engineering to formulate less dimensionality as a pre-processing step and optimized parameters to be prepared for classification phase. The results proved that using the logistic regression with regularization type L1 had a promising performance. The accuracy of Logistic Regression (LR) L1 was 97.2%. Such results support the proposed work as a reliable classification predictive tool.

Accurate seasonal weather forecasts are vital across a broad spectrum of applications, bearing significant environmental and socioeconomic implications. This importance renders the subject a matter of primary interest to a wide range of stakeholders, including the general public, agricultural sector, emergency responders, financial institutions, and policy strategists. The need for precision in long-term predictive models necessitates the development of innovative methodologies. These methodologies should be capable of deciphering atmospheric patterns and mechanisms with detail, especially at a local level, without the resource constraints that dynamical downscaling imposes. In response to this expanding demand, this study presents a novel solution, combining a stochastic deep learning methodology, specifically Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The cornerstone of the proposed model is the enhancement of gridded temperature fields from seasonal forecasts. The area of focus was the Hellenic region, wherein the spatial resolution is amplified from a coarse 1° x 1° grid to an impressively detailed 0.1° x 0.1° grid. This offers a transformative perspective for interpreting and employing this crucial meteorological data. The results suggest that the downscaled fields adequately approximate the actual spatial distribution, although the predicted values tend to slightly overestimate and in some cases underestimate the original ones. This study underlines the potential of this approach to significantly enhance the resolution and utility of weather forecasts, thereby contributing to a variety of sectors dependent on reliable meteorological data.

We propose a pricing formula for a defaultable zero-coupon bond with imperfect information under a regime-switching model using a structural form of credit risk modelling. While the value of the firm’s equity is observed continuously, we assume that the total value of the firm is only observed at discrete times, such as the dates of the release of the firm’s annual reports, or quarterly reports. This uncertainty about the true value of the firm results in credit spreads that do not approach zero as the debt approaches maturity, which is a problem with many structural models. The firm’s value is typically defined as its equity and debt; however, we consider the asset-to-equity ratio, an accounting ratio used to examine a firm’s financial well-being. A dependent regime-switching process models the components of this ratio, and the Markov chain represents the states of the economy. The main contribution is to study this problem when the dynamics of a firm’s assets have different parameters with regime changes.

The concept of vulnerable carotid plaques is pivotal in understanding the pathophysiology of is-chemic stroke secondary to large-artery atherosclerosis. At the macroscopic evaluation, vulnera-ble plaques are characterized by one or more of the following features: microcalcification, neo-vascularization, lipid-rich necrotic core (LRNC), intraplaque hemorrhage (IPH), thin fibrous caps, plaque surface ulceration, huge dimension determining stenosis, and plaque rupture. Recognizing these macroscopic characteristics is crucial to estimating the risk of cerebrovascular events, also in case of non-significant (less than 50%) stenosis. Inflammatory biomarkers, such as cytokines and adhesion molecules, lipid-related markers like oxidized low-density lipoprotein (LDL), and proteolytic enzymes capable of degrading extracellular matrix components are among the key molecules that will be scrutinized for their associative roles in plaque instability. Through their quantification and evaluation, these biomarkers reveal intricate molecular cross-talking govern-ing plaque inflammation, rupture potential, and thrombogenicity. Current evidence demonstrates that plaque vulnerability phenotypes are multiple and heterogeneous and are associated with as many highly complex molecular pathways that determine the activation of an immune-mediated cascade that culminates in thromboinflammation. This narrative review provides a comprehen-sive analysis of current knowledge on molecular biomarkers expressed by symptomatic carotid plaques. It explores the association of these biomarkers with the structural and compositional at-tributes that characterize vulnerable plaques

In the past two decades, several floods have affected people and their properties in Burkina Faso, with the unprecedented flooding occurring in Ouagadougou in September 2009. So far, most studies have focused on Ouagadougou and surrounding localities and have paid little attention to other flood-prone regions in Burkina Faso. Specifically, there is a data and knowledge gap about the flood risk in the Haut-Bassins region, which in turn hampers the development of mitigation strategies and risk reduction measures in communities. This study demonstrates how data collected at the household level can be used to understand flood risk and its components at the village level in this data-scarce region. Using an indicator-based method, we analyze both flood risk and flood risk perception at the village level. Moreover, we determine the factors influencing flood risk perception at the household level using an ordered logit model. We find that 12 out of the 14 villages considered, experience high levels of flood risk. The management of runoff from the nearest urban areas and poorly designed civil engineering infrastructures, such as roads, were highlighted by the households as significant factors that increase their vulnerability. Hence, dependencies in space and between urban and rural areas may play a substantial role in modifying risk. The perceived flood risk consistently exceeds the estimated flood risk, with an insignificant positive correlation between both risk indices. Regression results indicate that flood risk perception is mainly influenced by informational and behavioral factors of the households. The findings of this study can provide valuable information to municipal and regional authorities involved in disaster risk management in the study area. Moreover, the method is transferable to other data-scarce regions

Severe early childhood caries remains the most common chronic disease affecting children. Its multifactorial etiology has established a controversy about which risk factors were more significant to its development. Therefore our study aimed through meticulous statistical analysis to arrange the “well agreed upon” common risk factors in order of significance, to aid the clinician in tailoring an adequate preventive program for this affected age group. The study reshuffled the risk factors contributing to severe early childhood caries and placed them in the order of their significance as follows: snacking of sugary food several times a day, increased number of siblings to 3 or more, night feeding, child self-employed brushing, mother caries experience, 2 siblings, on demand feeding, once/day sugary food, sharing utensils, 1 Sibling, male gender, father’s education, late first child dental visit, brushing time, mother’s education, no dental visit, decreased brushing frequency & no night brushing.

This paper systematically discusses the application and development of federated learning in data privacy protection and data value sharing. With the rapid development of global information technology, especially the explosive growth of data from Internet of Things devices, data security and privacy protection are facing unprecedented challenges. This paper first analyzes the growth trend of global data volume and its importance to next generation technologies such as artificial intelligence technologies such as deep learning. Second, the paper provides an in-depth look at the impact of current data privacy regulations on data flows and value creation, particularly the EU's GDPR and China's Data Security and Personal Information Protection Law. Then, this paper introduces in detail federated learning, as a new distributed machine learning paradigm, which effectively solves the contradiction between existing data sharing and privacy protection by protecting individual data privacy and realizing global model collaborative construction. Finally, this paper discusses the combination of blockchain technology and federated learning, and proposes BeFL architecture as a new secure, decentralized and trusted federated learning system, which is expected to provide a comprehensive solution for large-scale data processing and value creation in multi-party scenarios. The research in this paper not only deepens the understanding of federation learning in theory, but also provides important reference and enlightenment for future research and application in related fields.

A 3-month (June-August) regime of the year 2002 summer rainfall (JJA2002) was simulated with 30 physics combinations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 12-km horizontal grid resolution. The objective is to examine summer rainfall sensitivity to parameterization of microphysical, convective, and boundary layer processes and identify the best possible combination of parameterization options that perform relatively better in simulating the spatial and temporal distribution of summer rains over Ethiopia. The WRF simulated rainfall was evaluated against station data and satellite rainfall products (CHIRPS and ENACTS) using mean absolute error, Pearson and Pattern correlation coefficients (PCC), pattern correlation, and error in a number of rainy days as evaluation metrics. Summer rainfall is found to be most sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization and least sensitive to cloud microphysics. All simulations captured the spatial distribution of mean seasonal precipitation with PCC ranging from 0.89-0.94. However, all simulations overestimated precipitation amount and number of rainy days. Out of the 30, the simulations that use a combination of Grell-3D cumulus scheme, ACM2 boundary layer, Lin Microphysics, Dudhai shortwave radiation, and RRTM longwave radiation scheme ranked the top and provided the most realistic simulation in terms of amount and spatio-temporal distribution of summer rainfall.

Extreme climates such as droughts and hot extremes, may result in marked damage to crop yields and threaten regional and global food security. Maize is a major grain crop in Liaoning Province, severely affected by drought and hot events. The objective of this study is to advance an approach to estimate the risk of crop yield reduction under the compound dry-hot events (CDHE) in Liaoning Province. Results show that the ratio of stations experiencing compound dry-hot events during the twelfth leaf and maturity stage tended to increase on the time scale. On a spatial scale, the frequency of compound dry-hot events in central Liaoning Province was relatively low during the whole and various reproductive periods of maize. In addition to the twelfth leaf, western Liaoning Province is prone to compound dry-hot events. The high-risk area for the occurrence of the compound dry-hot events in maize is Chaoyang City, located in the western part of Liaoning Province, and the cities in the low-risk area account for about 64.3% of the total number of cities in Liaoning Province, mainly in the central and northern parts of Liaoning Province. Generally, this study emphasizes focusing on the impacts of compound dry-hot events on agricultural production and provides an index to assess the risk of compound dry-hot events on maize production.

Background This study aimed to identify the prominent risk factors that may trigger danger signals of early onset of vascular deregulation in T1D. The risk factors we have identified may serve as dual-purpose biomarkers of rapid diagnosis that offer prospective tailor-made resolution therapeutics. Methods The healthy control (HC) was compared with individuals diagnosed with T1D for the risk factors of vascular deregulation in published research studies from year 2013 to 2023. The PubMed, Web of Science and Google Scholar databases were searched from 1/1/2013 to 1/9/2023. The risk of bias was assessed with the Cochrane (ROBINS-I ) tool, which is relevant to clinical subjects. A random effect model for continuous data was followed and analysed by RevMan 5.4 and GraphPad Prism software. Results 80 relevant case-control studies having 5293 HC and 7492 T1D patients were included. The age and sex-matched HC consisted of persons free of disease and not under any medication while clinical subjects of all age groups were included. 28 risk factors were grouped into six primary outcome models, all of which favoured the T1D synonymous with a high risk of CVD. Conclusions Our findings have strong implications for improving the quality of life and health economics related to vascular disease in T1D. HbA1c% is the most effective biomarker, followed by FBG, LDL-C, and AI% which the clinicians could evaluate using a simple blood test or non-invasive techniques. (Protocol registered at https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/ CRD42022384636).

There is great interest in automatically detecting road weather and understanding its impacts on the overall safety of the transport network. This can, for example, support road condition-based maintenance or even serve as detection systems that assist safe driving during adverse climate conditions. In computer vision, previous work has demonstrated the effectiveness of deep learning in predicting weather conditions from outdoor images. However, training deep learning models to accurately predict weather conditions using real-world road-facing images is difficult due to: (1) the simultaneous occurrence of multiple weather conditions; (2) imbalanced occurrence of weather conditions throughout the year; and (3) road idiosyncrasies, such as road layouts, illumination, road objects etc. In this paper, we explore the use of focal loss function to force the learning process to focus on weather instances that are hard to learn with the objective to help address data imbalance. In addition, we explore the attention mechanism for pixel based dynamic weight adjustment to handle road idiosyncrasies using state-of-the-art vision transformer models. Experiments with a novel multi-label road weather dataset show that focal loss significantly increases the accuracy of computer vision approaches for imbalanced weather conditions. Furthermore, vision transformers outperforms current state-of-the-art convolutional neural networks in predicting weather conditions with a validation accuracy of 92% and F1-score of 81.22%, which is impressive considering the imbalanced nature of the dataset.

Oilseed plants of the Brassicaceae plant family are cultivated for food, feed and industrial purposes on large-scale in Europe. This review gives an overview of current market-oriented applications of new genomic techniques (NGTs) in relevant Brassicaceae oilseed crops based on a literature survey. In this respect, changes in oil quality, yield, growth and resistance to biotic and abiotic stress are goals in oilseed rape (B. napus) and camelina (C. sativa). Environmental risk assessment scenarios are developed for specific NGT applications in Brassicaceae oilseed crops with either a changed oil composition or with fitness related traits. In case of a changed oil composition an increase or decrease of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) demonstrates risks for health and survival of pollinators. In case of fitness related traits other risks were identified, i. e. an increased risk of spread and persistence of NGT plants. Furthermore, there are indications for potential disturbance of interactions with the environment, involving signalling pathways and reaction to stress conditions. It is shown that for a comprehensive risk assessment the technological potential of NGTs, the plants’ biology and the scale of releases have to be considered in combination. Therefore, the release of NGT plants into the environment for agricultural purposes will require risk assessment and monitoring of single traits as well as of combinatorial and long-term cumulative effects. In addition, risk management should develop concepts and measures to control and potentially restrict the scale of releases. This is especially relevant for NGT Brassicaceae in Europe which is a centre of diversity of this plant family.

Obesity has increasingly become a worldwide epidemic, as demonstrated by epidemiological and clinical studies. Obesity may lead to development of a broad spectrum of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), such as coronary heart disease (CHD), hypertension, heart failure (HF), cerebrovascular disease, atrial fibrillation (AF), ventricular arrhythmias, and sudden cardiac death (SCD). In addition to hypertension, there are other cardiometabolic risk factors (CRFs) such as visceral adiposity, dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, diabetes, elevated levels of fibrinogen, and C-reactive protein and others, all of which increase the risk of CVD events. Mechanisms involved between obesity and CVD mainly include insulin resistance, oxidative stress, inflammation, and adipokines dysregulation, which cause maladaptive structural and functional alterations of the heart, particularly left ventricular (LV) remodeling and diastolic dysfunction. Natural products of plants, provide a diversity of nutrients and different bioactive compounds, including phenolics, flavonoids, terpenoids, carotenoids, anthocyanins, vitamins, minerals, fibers, and others, which possess a wide range of biological activities including antihypertensive, antilipidemic, antidiabetic, and other activities, thus conferring cardiometabolic benefits. In this review, we discussed the main therapeutic interventions using extracts from herbs and plants in preclinical and clinical trials with protective properties targeting CRFs. Molecular mechanisms and therapeutic targets of herbs and plants extracts for the prevention and treatment of CRFs are also reviewed.

Shared e-scooters are gaining popularity as a solution for first and last-mile connectivity in urban areas. This study conducted in Doha, Qatar, aimed to understand how weather and land use patterns affect e-scooter usage, utilizing various datasets. Given the novelty of micromobility systems in Qatar and their sensitivity to the local hot and humid climate, the study employed a comprehensive analytical approach. Analysis revealed that e-scooter demand spikes on weekends, particularly in the afternoon. Influential land use factors include proximity to universities and employment centers, while a higher presence of Qatari females in an area correlates with reduced usage, pointing to cultural influences. Weather conditions, especially humidity and extreme temperatures, significantly impact e-scooter demand. The study employed the Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) algorithm for trip clustering and the Random Forest (RF) algorithm to model trip counts, considering temperature and humidity. Insights showed humidity as a critical predictor of hourly e-scooter trip counts. These findings underscore the importance of considering weather, land use, the relationship between land use characteristics and weather variations, and finally cultural factors in optimizing e-scooter services. By integrating data analysis and machine learning, the study offers valuable insights for enhancing urban mobility and transportation planning in GCC countries, promoting sustainable urban mobility.

We estimated the risk of blood clots after COVID-19 vaccination accounting for the roles of vaccination in reducing the infection rate, and indirectly lowering the risk of blood clots caused by infection. A self-controlled case series method was used to examine the association between blood clots and COVID-19 vaccination. To deal with the bias due to under-reported infection among non-hospitalized subjects, a case-control study was used to compare the risk of blood clots in infected subjects to control subjects who were hospitalized due to physical injury. We found increased risks of blood clots after vaccination (incidence rate ratio is 1.13, 95% confidence interval (CI): [1.03, 1.24] after the first dose and 1.23, 95% CI: [1.13,1.34] after the second dose). Furthermore, vaccination attenuated the increased risk of blood clots associated with infection (odds ratio (OR) = 2.16, 95% CI: [1.93, 2.42] in unvaccinated versus OR=1.46, 95% CI: [1.25, 1.70] in vaccinated). A causal model was used to explain and weigh up possible risk factors for blood clots after COVID-19 vaccination. After accounting for vaccine efficacy against infection and the protection against infection-associated blood clots, receiving the COVID-19 vaccines decreases the risk of blood clots, especially during high infection rate period.

This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER) rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1) formulation of risk assessment hierarchy, (2) representation of both qualitative and quantitative information, (3) elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities, (4) aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5) quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.

Citizen science has emerged as a potent approach for environmental monitoring, leveraging the collective efforts of volunteers to gather data at unprecedented scales. Within the framework of the I-CHANGE project, MeteoTracker, a citizen science initiative, was employed to collect and analyze meteorological measurements. This paper presents the results of our analysis, demonstrating the effectiveness of citizen science in generating valuable environmental data. Through MeteoTracker, volunteers contributed to a comprehensive dataset, enabling insights into local weather patterns and trends. Our findings underscore the potential of citizen science to augment traditional monitoring efforts and inform decision-making processes in environmental research and management. The paper discusses the methodology employed, including data collection and statistical analysis techniques. Results highlight the reliability and accuracy of citizen-generated data, as well as the strengths of the MeteoTracker platform. The implications of our findings for environmental research, policy development, and public engagement are discussed, along with recommendations for enhancing the effectiveness of citizen science initiatives in environmental monitoring.

For autonomous driving, perception is a primary and essential element that fundamentally deals with the insight into the ego vehicle’s environment through sensors. Perception is a challenging task suffering from dynamic objects and continuous environmental changes. The issue gets worse due to interrupting the quality of perception by adverse weather like snow, rain, fog, night light, sand storm, strong daylight, etc. In this work, we have tried to improve camera-based perception accuracy, such as autonomous driving-related object detection in adverse weather. We proposed the improvement of YOLOv8-based object detection in adverse weather through transfer learning using merged data from various harsh weather datasets. Two prosperous open-source datasets (ACDC and DAWN) and their merged dataset were used to detect primary objects on the road in harsh weather. A set of training weights were collected from training on the individual datasets, their merged version, and several subsets of those datasets according to their characteristics. A comparison between the training weights also occurred by evaluating the detection performance on the above-mentioned datasets and their subsets. The evaluation revealed that using custom datasets for training significantly improves the detection performance compared to the YOLOv8 base weights. And using more images through the feature-related data merging technique steadily increases the object detection performance.

The emergence of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) raised multiple concerns, given their potential for malicious misuse in unlawful acts Vision-based counter-UAV applications offer a reliable solution compared to acoustic and radio frequency-based solutions because of their high detection accuracy in diverse weather conditions. The existing solutions work well on trained datasets, but their accuracy is relatively low for real-time detection. In this paper, we model deep learning-empowered solutions to improve the multi-class UAV's classification performance using single-shot object detection algorithms YOLOv5 and YOLOv7. The transfer learning is employed for performance improvement and rapid training with improved results. We customized a multi-class dataset containing multi-rotor, fixed-wing, and single-rotor UAVs in challenging weather conditions. Experiments show that the integration of transfer learning has achieved good results, with an overall best average-classification precision of 94\%, an average recall of 93.1\%, a mAP$@$0.5 average of 95.3\%, and an average F1 score of 92.33\%. The dataset and code are available as an open source: https://github.com/ZeeshanKaleem/YOLOV5-Large-vs-YOLOV7.git

Tephra plumes can cause a significant hazard for surrounding towns, infrastructure, and air traffic. The current work presents the use of a small and compact X-band Multi-Parameter (X-MP) radar for the remote tephra detection and tracking of two eruptive events at Merapi Volcano, Indonesia, in May and June 2018. Tephra detection was done by analysing the multiple parameters of radar: copolar correlation and reflectivity intensity. These parameters were used to cancel unwanted clutter and retrieve tephra properties, which are grain size and concentration. Real-time spatial and temporal forecasting of tephra dispersal was performed by applying an advection scheme (nowcasting) in the manner of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). Cross-validation was done using field-survey data, radar observations, and Himawari-8 imagery. The nowcasting model computed both the displacement and growth and decaying rate of the plume based on the temporal changes in two-dimensional movement and tephra concentration, respectively. Our results with ground-based data, where the radar-based estimated grain size distribution fell within the range of in-situ data. The uncertainty of real-time forecasted tephra plume depends on the initial condition, which affects the growth-and decaying rate estimation. The EPS improves the predictability rate by reducing the number of missed and false forecasted events. Our findings and the method presented here are suitable for early warning of tephra fall hazard at the local scale.

The paper deals with the problem of choosing the best O&M strategy for wind power plants. Current maintenance theory considers just production opportunities and minimizes the maintenance costs, but with the liberalization of the electricity market also the electricity price has become an important variable to take into account in the O&M scheduling. Another important variables that is often neglected by the existing maintenance theory is the weather condition. This paper proposes a new strategy that takes into account the electricity price and weather conditions, improves the expected profit of the systems, and reduce the overall maintenance and logistic costs. The maintenance schedule is formalized as an optimization problem where the discounted cumulative profit of a wind generation portfolio in a fixed-time horizon (e.g. two years ahead), subject to the technologically-derived maintenance time constraints is optimized. Both the theoretical and computational aspects of the proposed O&M strategy are discussed. Results show that taking into account market and weather opportunities in the design of the maintenance strategy, it is possible to achieve a more complete scheduling for a given set of wind power plants.

In today's highly digitized and globalized financial environment, the need to protect payment systems from risk is more urgent than ever. Artificial intelligence (AI) technology is rapidly becoming a key tool in this space, with machine learning algorithms, big data analytics, and real-time monitoring enabling AI to effectively detect and prevent fraudulent activity, optimize risk management processes, and deliver intelligent services. AI not only improves the security and efficiency of payment systems, but also significantly improves customer satisfaction and loyalty. With the continuous development of AI technology and financial payment technology, the financial payment industry will usher in more innovations and changes in the future, further optimizing the payment process, improving payment efficiency, and ensuring payment security.

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) accounts for approximately 90-95% of all kidney cancers in adults, with the clear cell RCC (ccRCC) the most frequently identified subtype. RCC is known for its responsiveness to immunotherapy, making it an area of significant research interest. Immune checkpoint (IC) molecules, which regulate immune surveillance, are established therapeutic targets in RCC. The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of polymorphisms in genes HVEM and CD160 on susceptibility to ccRCC and patient overall survival (OS) with over a ten-year period of observation. We genotyped three HVEM single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs): rs1886730, rs2234167, and rs8725, and two CD160 SNPs: rs744877 and rs2231375, in 238 ccRCC patients and 521 controls. Our findings indicated that heterozygosity within rs2231375 and/or rs2234167 increases ccRCC risk. Furthermore, in women, heterozygosity within additional HVEM SNPs, rs8725 and rs1886730, is associated with an increased ccRCC risk. The presence of a minor allele for rs1886730, rs2234167, rs8725, and rs2231375 was also correlated with certain clinical features of the disease. Moreover, the rs1886730 SNP was found to be associated with patients' OS. In conclusion, our study highlights an association between HVEM and CD160 polymorphisms and the risk of developing ccRCC as well as patient’s OS.

Floods are a common natural disaster whose severity in terms of duration, water resource volume, peak and accumulated rainfall-based damage are likely to differ significantly for different geographical regions. In this paper, we first propose a novel hourly flood index (SWRI24−hr−S), derived from normalising the existing 24-hourly water resources index (WRI24−hr−S) in literature, to monitor flash flood risks on an hourly scale. The proposed SWRI24−hr−S is adopted to identify a flood situation and derive its characteristics, such as the duration (D), volume (V) and peak (Q). The comprehensive result analysis establishes the practical utility of SWRI24−hr−S in identifying flood situations at seven study sites in Fiji between 2014 and 2018 and deriving their characteristics (i.e., D, V, and Q). Secondly, this study develops a vine copula-probabilistic risk analysis system that models the joint distribution of flood characteristics (i.e., D, V, and Q) to extract their joint exceedance probability for the seven study sites in Fiji, enabling probabilistic flood risk assessment. The vine copula approach, particularly suited to Fiji’s study sites, introduces a novel probabilistic framework for flood risk assessment. The results show moderate differences in the spatial patterns of joint exceedance probability of flood characteristics in different combination scenarios generated by the proposed vine copula approach. In the worst-case scenario, the probability of any flood event occurring where the flood volume, peak and duration are likely to exceed the 95th-quantile value (representing an extreme flood event) is found to be less than 5% for all study sites. The proposed hourly flood index and the vine copula approach can be feasible and cost-effective tools for flood risk monitoring and assessment. The methodologies proposed in this study can be applied to other data-scarce regions where only rainfall data is available, offering crucial information for flood risk monitoring, assessment, and the development of effective mitigation strategies.

Background: this interventional pilot study aimed to evaluate the short-term (3 years) efficacy of focal laser ablation (FLA) in treating the index lesion of low-intermediate risk prostate cancer, along with assessing the safety of the procedure (ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT04045756). Methods: forty patients aged between 46 and 86 with histologically proven organ-confined prostate cancer and low to intermediate progression risk were included. FLA was performed under percutaneous fusion magnetic resonance/ultrasound guidance in a Day Hospital setting under local anesthesia. Patients underwent regular clinical assessments, PSA measurements, post-procedure MRI scans, and biopsies at 36 months or if positive findings were detected earlier. Statistical analyses were conducted to assess trends in PSA levels and cavity dimensions over time. Results: forty patients were initially included, with 15 lost to follow-up. At 36 months, a mean PSA reduction of 60% was observed, and 80% of MRI scans showed no signs of in-field clinically significant residual/recurrent cancer. Biopsies at 36 months revealed no malignant findings in 20 patients. No deterioration in sexual function or urinary symptoms was recorded. Conclusions: FLA appears to be safe, feasible and effective in the index lesion treatment of low-intermediate risk prostate cancer, with a high rate of tumor eradication and preservation of quality of life.

Cash crops are agricultural crops intended to be sold for profit as opposed to subsistence crops, meant to support the producer, or to support livestock. Since cash crops are intended for future sale, they translate into large financial value when considered on a wide geographical scale, so their production directly involves financial risk. At a national level, extreme weather events including destructive rain or hail, as well as drought, can have a significant impact on the overall economic balance. It is thus important to map such crops in order to set up insurance and mitigation strategies. Using locally generated data -such as municipality-level records of crop seeding- for mapping purposes implies facing a series of issues like data availability, quality, homogeneity etc. We thus opted for a different approach relying on global datasets. Global datasets ensure homogeneity and availability of data, although sometimes at the expense of precision and accuracy. A typical global approach makes use of spaceborne remote sensing, for which different land cover classification strategies are available in literature at different levels of cost and accuracy. We selected the optimal strategy in the perspective of a global processing chain. Thanks to a specifically developed strategy for fusing unsupervised classification results with environmental constraints and other geospatial inputs including ground-based data, we managed to obtain good classification results despite the constraints placed. The overall production process was composed using ``good-enough" algorithms at each step, ensuring that the precision, accuracy, and data-hunger of each algorithm was commensurate to the precision, accuracy, and amount of data available. This paper describes the tailored strategy developed on the occasion as a cooperation among different groups with diverse backgrounds, a strategy which is believed to be profitably reusable in other, similar contexts. The paper presents the problem, the constraints and the adopted solutions; it then summarizes the main findings including that efforts and costs can be saved on the side of Earth Observation data processing when additional ground-based data are available to support the mapping task.

Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) after heart transplantation (HT) remains a significant clinical issue. The study aimed to explore its incidence, trends, outcomes and clinical predictors of GIB in HT patients. Adult patients who underwent HT between 2015 and 2021 at Union Hospital were recruited and divided into two groups based on the presence or absence of postoperative GIB. Primary outcomes were evaluated by follow-up. Independent predictors of GIB after HT were identified by logistic regression analysis. A nomogram prediction model was constructed according to these independent variables, and the accuracy of the model was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the calibration curve. Among 461 patients, 40 (8.7%) developed GIB post-HT. HT patients with postoperative GIB exhibited higher in-hospital, 30-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality (all P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis identified age, preoperative warfarin, postoperative continuous renal replacement therapy and postoperative nasogastric tube as independent risk factors for GIB following HT. The nomogram prediction model was performed using the 4 variables. The area under the curve (AUC) of this model was 0.852(95% CI: 0.787-0.917, P < 0.001) and the calibration curve was close to the ideal diagonal line. GIB following HT is associated with a poor clinical prognosis. The constructed nomogram, incorporating its independent risk factors, demonstrated a favorable predictive value for GIB.

Lyme disease, the leading vector-borne ailment in the U.S., annually affects an estimated 476,000 individuals, predominantly in the Northeast and Upper Midwest. Despite its increasing incidence, the evaluation of risk within U.S. cities, including natural public lands, remains inadequate. This study focuses on blacklegged tick occurrences and Borrelia burgdorferi infection prevalence in 24 Staten Island parks, aiming to assess Lyme disease exposure risk. Monthly acarological risk index (ARI) calculations from 2019 to 2022 revealed elevated values (0.16-0.53) in specific parks, notably Wolfe’s Pond Park, High Rock Park, Clay Pit Pond Park, Clove Lake Park, and Fair View Park. June (0.36) and November (0.21) consistently exhibited heightened ARIs, aligning with peak tick collection months. Despite stable yearly infection rates at 28.97%, tick densities varied significantly between parks and years. Identifying a high transmission risk in specific parks in Staten Island, a highly urbanized part of New York City, emphasizes the continuous necessity for Lyme disease risk management, even within the greenspaces of large cities.

This study comprehensively explores Serbia's Disaster (Risk) Management System, aiming to critically evaluate its inherent strengths and weaknesses. Using descriptive-analytical methods and qualitative interpretation, SWOT analysis was applied to collect data from scientific papers, books, and institutional reports. This study delves deeply into the nuances of Serbia's Disaster Management Framework, revealing a nuanced landscape of strengths, weaknesses, and strategic improvement opportunities. Identified strengths underscore a robust foundation characterized by proficient professionals, state-of-the-art technology, and cohesive teamwork, all pivotal for effective emergency preparedness and response. Conversely, weaknesses underscore pressing imperatives for enhancements in regulatory enforcement, resource allocation, and infrastructure upgrades, presently hampering the framework's efficacy and response readiness. This research contributes to the ongoing discourse on disaster risk management and serves as a catalyst for further scholarly inquiry and policy formulation. By mapping out the structure of Serbia’s Disaster (Risk) Management Framework and integrating diverse data sources, the study enriches theoretical models and lays the groundwork for practical policy interventions. Its findings, including precise recommendations for policy reform and strategic improvements, provide valuable insights for policymakers, emergency management experts, and stakeholders seeking to enhance disaster preparedness and response capabilities on both national and global scales.

Background: Both hypertension and carotid atherosclerosis are independent risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Understanding their combined impact could enhance risk assessment and management strategies. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that the synergistic effects of hypertension and carotid plaques would increase the risk of both cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. Methods: A follow-up study was conducted at the Preventive Cardiology department of Vilnius University Hospital Santaros klinikos between 2012 and 2021. The study recruited participants aged 40-60 who did not have overt CVD and were part of the Lithuanian High Cardiovascular Risk primary preventive program. The study collected demographic and clinical data, including an ultrasound assessment of carotid plaque. The participants were monitored for 4-10 years for CVD events and all-cause mortality. Results: Among 6,138 participants, 954 (16%) experienced cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. The presence of carotid plaque on both sides was significantly associated with CVD events, myocardial infarction, and all-cause mortality. However, the combination of hypertension and carotid plaque did not significantly increase the risk for CVD events, stroke, or all-cause mortality. Conclusion: The combination of hypertension and carotid plaque did not significantly increase the risk of CVD events or all-cause mortality. CV events depend on the spread of the atherosclerosis process in the carotid vessels.

In this paper, an extensive study on the operation, control and performance of a hybrid photovoltaic and wind turbine (PV-WT) system is presented. The study includes the operation of the hybrid systems under different weather conditions which are reflected on a change in the wind speed and irradiance. Various loading conditions are investigated such a change in active and reactive power demands for static and dynamic loads. The performance of the hybrid system is examined via MATLAB/SIMULINK simulations.

Pragmatic trials aim to assess intervention efficacy in usual patient care settings, contrasting with explanatory trials conducted under controlled conditions. In aging research, pragmatic trials are important designs for obtaining real-world evidence in elderly populations, which are often underrepresented in trials. In this review, we discuss statistical considerations from a frequentist approach for the design and analysis of pragmatic trials. When choosing the dependent variable, it is essential to use an outcome that is highly relevant to usual medical care while also providing sufficient statistical power. Besides traditionally used binary outcomes, ordinal outcomes can provide pragmatic answers with gains in statistical power. Cluster randomization requires careful consideration of sample size calculation and analysis methods, especially regarding missing data and outcome variables. Mixed effects models and generalized estimating equations (GEEs) are recommended for analysis to account for center effects, with tools available for sample size estimation. Multi-arm studies pose challenges in sample size calculation, requiring adjustment for design effects and consideration of multiple comparison correction methods. Secondary analyses are common but require caution due to the risk of reduced statistical power and false-discovery rates. Safety data collection methods should balance pragmatism and data quality. Overall, understanding statistical considerations is crucial for designing rigorous pragmatic trials that evaluate interventions in elderly populations under real-world conditions. In conclusion, this review focuses on various statistical topics of interest to those designing a pragmatic clinical trial, with consideration of aspects of relevance in the aging research field.

Ménière's disease (MD) has an unclear cause. The microvascular dysregulation of the inner ear has been increasingly pointed as a potential contributor. This study investigates the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) in MD patients compared to those with posterior circulation cerebral infarction (POCI). CVRFs like hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, obesity, coronary heart disease, and smoking were assessed in both MD and POCI patients. Brain MRI identified POCI etiology as "small vessel occlusion" (SVO) or "other etiology" (OE). The study included 64 MD and 84 POCI patients. Compared to MD, POCI OE showed a higher prevalence of CVRFs across various age groups, including hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and smoking. Notably, the odds of having POCI OE were significantly higher for individuals with hypertension and smoking. On the other hand, POCI SVO showed similar prevalence of CVRFs compared to MD. This study reveals no significant difference in CVRF prevalence between MD and smaller vessel POCI. However, a clear distinction emerges when comparing MD to POCI with involvement of larger blood vessels. Further research is needed to confirm these findings and explore potential shared risk factors between POCI (SVO) and MD.

This paper presents the work done to transition the lab scale synthesis (1 g) to a large scale (400 g) synthesis of the 3-5-diamino-1H-Pyrazole Disperazol; a new pharmaceutical for treatment of antibiotic resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilm infections. The potentially hazardous diazotisation step in the lab scale synthesis was transformed to a safe and easy to handle flow chemistry step. Additionally, the paper presents an OSHA recommended safety assessment of the active compound E, performed by Fauske and Associates, LLC.

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) patients experienced multiple chemotoxicity affecting treatment compliance, survival, and quality of life (QOL). Prior research shows clinician-reported chemotoxicity (i.e., grading scales or diagnostic codes) predicts rehospitalization and cancer survival. However, a comprehensive synthesis of clinician-reported chemotoxicity is still lacking. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the chemotoxicity's prevalence and risk factors in CRC. Methods: A systematic search from 2009 to 2024 yielded 30 studies for review, with 25 included in the meta-analysis. Results: Pooled prevalences of overall, non-hematological, and hematological moderate-to-severe toxicities were 45.7%, 39.2%, and 25.3%, respectively. The most common clinician-reported chemotoxicities were gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity (22.9%) and neuropathy or neutropenia (17.9%). Significant risk factors at baseline were malnutritional status, frailty, impaired immune or hepato-renal functions, short telomere lengths, low gut lactobacillus levels, age, female sex, aggressive chemotherapy, and low QOL. Age was associated with neutropenia (β: -1.44) and GI toxicity (β:1.85) (Ps 65 y.o.) had higher prevalences of overall (OR: 1.14) and GI (OR: 1.65) toxicities, but a lower prevalence of neutropenia (OR: 0.65) than younger adults (Ps

Weather radar plays a crucial role in the monitoring of severe convective weather. However, due to its limited detection range, it cannot conduct effective monitoring in remote offshore areas. Therefore, this paper utilized the Unet++ to establish a model for retrieving radar composite reflectivity based on Himawari-9 satellite datasets. In the process of comparative analysis, we found that both satellite and radar data exhibit significant diurnal cycles, but there are notable differences in their variation characteristics. To address this, we established 4 comparative models to test the influence of latitude and diurnal cycles on the inversion results. The results show that adding the distribution map of the minimum cloud-top brightness temperature at the corresponding time in the model can effectively reduce the root mean square error (RMSE) of the model and enhance the accuracy of severe convective weather monitoring. This conclusion can be applied in the future to enhance and improve satellite quantitative precipitation estimation.

Having sustained, over the course of more than two decades, record-breaking natural catastrophe losses, American insurers and reinsurers are justifiably questioning the potential linkage between anthropogenic climate change and extreme weather. Here, we explore issues pertaining to this linkage, looking at both the likely short-term implications for the insurance industry, as well as potential longer-term impacts on financial performance and corporate resilience. We begin our discussion with an overview of the implications that climate change is likely to have on the industry, especially as it relates to how catastrophic risks are construed, assessed, and managed. We then present the rudiments of an econometric analysis that explores the financial resilience of the property/casualty (P/C) industry in the face of both natural and man-made catastrophes. In this analysis, we explore the profitability consequences of several illustrative scenarios involving large-scale losses from extreme weather—specifically, a sequence of storms like those striking the U.S. in 2004—and a scenario that explores the prospect of a Katrina-scale storm in combination with a mass terror attack on the scale of 9/11. At systemic levels of aggregation, our analysis suggests a high degree of macro-resilience for the insurance industry. Moreover, we find that insurer resilience is higher for larger impacts, considering both the speed of recovery, as well as the inverse of the area under the unaffected system profile. We conclude with a summary of our findings and a closing commentary that explores the potential implications of these results for P/C insurers moving forward.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic inflammatory disease. Despite new methods of diagnostics and treatment as well as extensive biological and immunosuppressive treatment, the etiology of RA is not fully understood. Moreover, the problem of diagnosis and treatment of RA patients is still current and affects a large group of patients. It is suggested that these ER-related features may impair adaptation to chronic stress, inferring the risk of rheumatoid arthritis. The main goal in this study was evaluation of changes in mRNA translation to determine chronic ER stress conditions in rheumatoid arthritis patients. The study group consist of 86 individuals including total 56 rheumatoid arthritis patients and 30 healthy controls. The expression level of mRNA form blood samples of RA patients as well as controls of the PERK-UPR associated genes: p-eIF2, BCL-2, PERK, ATF4, BAX were investigated by Real-Time qPCR. GAPDH expression was used as a standard control. Considering the median, the expression of PERK, BCL-2, p-eIF2, ATF4, BAX was found to be significantly increased in the blood of RA patients compared with the control group. The p-value for the PERK gene was 0.0000000036, the p-value for the BCL-2 gene was 0.000000014, the p-value for the p-eIF2 gene was 0.006948, the p-value for the ATF4 gene was 0.0000056 and the p-value for the BAX gene was 0.00019, respectively. Thus, it can be concluded that targeting of the components of the PERK-dependent UPR signaling pathway via small-molecule PERK inhibitors, may contribute to the development of novel, innovative treatment strategies against rheumatoid arthritis.

Cytoglobin has been implicated in a range of pathological conditions including fibrosis and cancer, where cytoglobin expression is linked to hypoxia- and drug-resistance. One disease where there is evidence of a role for cytoglobin is head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, a disease with a poor prognosis and where clinical resistance to platinum-based drugs is common. In the current study, we demonstrate that 3D-culture of head and neck cancer cells (PE/CA-PJ41, Liv-22K) and normal oral keratinocyte cells (NOK-hTERT) results in changes in sensitivity to cisplatin cytotoxicity compared to 2D-cultures. Relative to 2D-cultures, 3D-cultures of PE/CA-PJ41 and NOK-hTERT cells demonstrated increased cisplatin resistance. In contrast, 3D-cultures of Liv-22K cells were more sensitive to cisplatin. Evidence for cisplatin genotoxicity was observed in the form of GADD45A activation in PE/CA-PJ41 cells but not the other two cell types investigated. Furthermore, DNA-strand breaks were also detected by the alkaline comet assay in PE/CA-PJ41 cells although levels were not significantly affected by 3D-culture. Cytoglobin expression levels were elevated by 3D-culture in all three cell lines investigated and there were also changes in expression of genes related to cell division (MKI57, GJB6), cell adhesion (CDH1), stress response (NFkB, NQO1) and apoptosis (Casp3) but these changes were cell line specific. We also observed consistent transcriptional activation of HIF1a in 3D-cultures of all three cell lines, suggestive of hypoxic conditions in spheroids. In support of a direct role of hypoxia in cytoglobin induction, the HIF1a stabiliser cobalt chloride also induced cytoglobin expression in spheroids. Transcriptomic profiling of PE/CA-PJ41 cells over-expressing cytoglobin identified 121 differentially regulated genes, when cells were cultured under hypoxic conditions. Major changes identified included, upregulation of G1/S cell cycle regulation as well as wnt- and RhoGTPase-signalling pathways. In conclusion, 3D-cultures are a useful model to further study the biological function of cytoglobin in head and neck cancer and we provide evidence that further supports a role for cytoglobin in hypoxia-dependent cellular proliferation and phenotypic changes that could contribute to cisplatin resistance in vivo.

Patients with Multiple Myeloma have an increased susceptibility to severe infections due to several various factors, especially the high tumor burden. The use of the anti-CD38 monoclonal antibodies-based therapies has changed the frequency and epidemiology of infections. We report herein the safety profile of the pivotal clinical trials conducted with anti-CD38 mAbs (daratumumab and isatuximab) and anti-SLAMF7 mAbs (elotuzumab) that led to the approval of regimens employed today in NDMM and RRMM patients.

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common condition in reproductive-age women. Women with PCOS are at higher risk of pregnancy complications including gestational diabetes (GDM). The prevalence of PCOS and GDM varies according to the diagnostic criteria used. The mechanism for the occurrence of GDM in women with PCOS is still unclear. Materials &amp; Methods- A systematic search of the electronic database was done using keywords like PCOS, and GDM to include studies between April 2008 and March 2023 where uniform diagnostic criteria were used. Studies were excluded with high-risk of bias after the assessment of bias, and meta-analysis was done with relative risks and confidence intervals. Results &amp; Discussion-Out of 1896 search results, 95 were selected for full-text. The quality of the studies was scrutinized and a total of 28 studies were included as they fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The incidence of GDM in women with PCOS was found to be 10.55 % (2.9- 54.9%) from pooled data involving 1,280,245. The prevalence of PCOS in women diagnosed with GDM was found from pooled data of 36,351 women in retrospective studies to be 2.47% (1.5- 50.1%). Selection predominantly included cohort studies, most commonly from China. The meta-analysis reported the risk of GDM is higher in women with PCOS than in those without PCOS (HR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.27–1.91, p &lt; 0.001). Family history of diabetes, ethnicity, pre-pregnancy BMI, insulin resistance, gestational weight gain, use of assisted reproductive techniques, and multifetal gestation were the risk factors for GDM in women with PCOS. Conclusion- The prevalence of GDM in patients with PCOS is high, but the causality is complex. The newer predictive models are promising in clarifying the causative relationships, yet use various parameters at different cut-offs. There is a need for the development of universally acceptable parameters for the early prediction of GDM in women with PCOS.

The ocean’s mixed layer depth (MLD) plays an important role in understanding climate dynamics, especially during extreme weather occurrences like hurricanes. This study investigates the effects of Hurricane Katrina (2005) on the MLD in the Gulf of Mexico, using the Delft3D modeling system. By integrating hydrodynamics and wave dynamics modules, we simulate the ocean’s response to extreme weather, focusing on temperature, salinity and MLD variations. Our analysis reveals significant cooling and mixing induced by Katrina, resulting in spatial and temporal fluctuations in temperature (~± 4°C) and salinity (~± 2.5 ppt). The MLD is estimated using a simple threshold method, revealing a substantial deepening to ~120 m on August 29th-30th during Hurricane Katrina in the middle of northern Gulf of Mexico, compared to an average MLD of ~20-40 m during pre-storm conditions. It took about 18-days to recover to ~84% of the pre-storm level after Katrina. Compared to the stand-alone FLOW model, the coupled FLOW+WAVE model yields a deeper MLD of ~5%. The MLD recovery and wave effect on the MLD provide insights from various scientific, environmental and operational perspectives, offering a valuable basis for ocean management, planning and applications, particularly during extreme weather events.

Attention to the work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) involve also statistical surveys showing an increasing trend in the incidence of WMSDs. Technological development retrieves new tools and methods for the assessment of physical load at work. In addition to the conventional questionnaires and scaling assessment systems, these methods are mostly based on the direct sensing of appropriate parameters, which allows more precise quantification. The aim of this paper is to compare the assessment of ergonomic risk through current legislative regulations. A Captiv wireless sensor system was used at a car headlight quality control assembly workplace for sensing, data acquisition and data processing. During the evaluation of the postures and movements at work, we discovered differences in the applicable standards: Decree 542/2007 Coll. (Slovak legislation), STN EN 1005-4+A1, French standards default in the Captiv system. Standards define the thresholds for hazardous postures with significant differences in several evaluated body segments, which also affects the final evaluation of the measurements. Based on the results of our research, we found that respondents were in an acceptable position for approximately 63% of the total duration of the work activity in terms of the Legislative method, 44% with Captiv and 27% with Standards method.

Accurate measurement of systemic financial risk is critical to maintaining the stability of financial markets. Taking China as the subject of investigation, the Chinese Financial Stress Index (CFSI) indicator system was con-structed by integrating six dimensions and employing Gray Relation Analysis (GRA) for dimensionality reduction of the indicators. The CFSI was derived using the Attribute Hierarchy Model (AHM) method with the Criteria Importance Through the Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) method, and an Improved Gravitational Search Algorithm (IGSA) optimized Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) was proposed for out-of-sample prediction of CFSI trends from 2024 to 2026. By analyzing the trend of financial pressure indicators, the relationship between financial pressure and economic activity can be effectively identified. The research findings indicate that: (1) The CFSI is capable of accurately reflecting the current financial stress situation in China; (2) The IGSA-RBFNN demonstrates good robustness and generalization capabilities, predicting that the CFSI index will reach a peak value of 0.543 by the end of 2024, and there exists a regular pattern of stress rebound towards the end of each year. The novel methodology benefits policymakers and regulatory authorities to formulate preventive measures and risk management by identifying potential risks and vulnerabilities in advance.

Nowadays, considering the growing tendency of companies towards e-commerce as well as green production, and dual-channel green supply chain management has become particularly important. This paper investigates pricing decisions within a dual-channel green supply chain framework while considering the capital constraints faced by risk-averse manufacturer. Simultaneously, the impact of the degree of risk aversion, consumer green preferences, and channel preferences on the optimal decision-making process of green supply chain members is analyzed. We address the issue of financial constraints faced by manufacturer through bank loans and trade credit financing and compare the two cases. Our findings illustrate that trade credit financing outperforms bank loan financing in the dual-channel green supply chain. Moreover, pricing decisions under different models are influenced by consumer preferences and risk aversion. Specifically, the greenness of the product, wholesale price, and sale price exhibit negative correlations with manufacturers' risk aversion but positive correlations with consumer preferences.

Cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN) is a severe complication of diabetes mellitus (DM) strongly linked to a nearly five-fold higher risk of cardiovascular mortality. Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) are a significant cohort in which these assessments have particular relevance to the increased cardiovascular risk inherent in the condition. This study aimed to explore the subtle correlation between the Ewing test, Sudoscan-cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy score, and cardiovascular risk calculated using SCORE 2 Diabetes in individuals with T2DM. The cohort consisted of 211 patients diagnosed with T2DM with overweight or obesity without established ASCVD, aged between 40 to 69 years. The prevalence of CAN in our group was 67.2%. In the study group, according SCORE2-Diabetes, four patients (1.9%) were classified with moderate cardiovascular risk, thirty-five (16.6%) with high risk, and one hundred seventy-two (81.5%) with very high cardiovascular risk. On multiple linear regression, the SCORE2-Diabetes algorithm remained significantly associated with Sudoscan CAN-score and Sudoscan Nephro-score and Ewing test score. Testing for the diagnosis of CAN in very high-risk patients should be performed because approximately 70% of them associate CAN. Increased cardiovascular risk is associated with sudomotor damage and that Sudoscan is an effective and non-invasive measure of identifying such risk.

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) pathophysiology comprises clinical and genetic factors. In fact, GDM has been associated with several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). This study aimed to build a prediction model of GDM combining clinical and genetic risk factors. A total of 1588 pregnant women from the San Carlos Cohort participated in the present study, 1069 (67.3%) Caucasian (CAU) and 519 (32.7%) Latin American (LAT), 255 (16.1%) with GDM. The incidence of GDM was similar in both groups (16.1% CAU and 16.0% LAT). Genotyping was performed by IPLEX Mass ARRAY PCR selecting 110 SNPs based on literature references. The SNPs showing the strongest likelihood of GDM development were the rs10830963, rs7651090 and rs1371614 in CAU and rs1387153 and the rs9368222 in LAT. Clinical variables including age, pre-pregnancy body mass index and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) at 12 gestational weeks predicted the risk of GDM (AUC 0.648, 95%CI 0.601-0.695 in CAU; AUC 0.688, 95%CI 0.628-9.748 in LAT) and adding the SNPs modestly improved prediction (AUC 0.722, 95%CI 0.680-0.764 in CAU; AUC 0.769, 95%CI 0.711-0.826 in LAT). In conclusion, adding genetic variants enhanced the prediction model of GDM risk in CAU and LAT pregnant women. An RCT is underway to demonstrate its usefulness

The present study analyzes students' weather-related hazard and risk literacy in Greece, a climate change hotspot region in the Eastern Mediterranean. In this context, we examine the students' level in two core literacy variables, namely knowledge and competency. In addition, we explore how knowledge, attitudes and socio-demographic variables influence students' competencies related to weather and climate risk assessment and adaptability. A questionnaire-based survey was conducted on 474 students aged 12-16. The regression results showed that knowledge significantly affects the level of competency. Self-belief and confidence in science were the most influential among the attitudinal variables. We conclude by discussing educational and behavioural issues highlighted as essential to address with targeted policies and measures in formal education complemented by non-formal educational activities.

This article presents a low-cost insurance system developed for small-hold farms in disaster-prone regions, primarily using free Earth Observation (EO) data and Free Open Source Software (FOSS) – collectively termed sustainable geoinformatics - with a proprietary mobile phone app that enables verification. The study examined 30 farms in Risaralda department, Colombia. A Digital Elevation Model (12.5m pixels) from the ALOS PALSAR satellite sensor was used with a Geographical Information System (GIS) to map the terrain, drainage and geohazards of each farming district. Google Earth Engine (GEE) was used to carry out Time Series Analysis of 15 EO and weather datasets for 1998 to 2020. This analysis enabled the levels of risk from hydrometeorological hazards to be determined for each farm of the study, providing key data for the setting of insurance premiums. A parametric insurance product was piloted using GPS-tagged, time-stamped mobile phone photos to verify crop health. Key features of this insurance system are its low operational cost and rapid damage verification, relative to conventional approaches to farm insurance. It is an affordable form of insurance for small-scale farmers, with the rapid verification and payment of claims. This relatively fast, low-cost and affordable approach to insurance for small-scale farming enhances sustainable development by enabling policy-holder farmers to recover more quickly from disasters.

Background: Annual influenza epidemics are a serious public health problem, causing particularly severe morbidity and mortality in high-risk groups. The study aimed to understand Poles' attitudes and beliefs towards influenza vaccinations in the flu season of 2022–2023, analyze preferences and unmet needs regarding influenza vaccinations, and examine the perception and acceptance of the influenza vaccine among individuals at risk of flu complications. Methods: A cross-sectional survey-based study was carried out on a sample of 1446 respondents. The Google Forms questionnaire was created and disseminated electronically using social media and e-mail. The pre-test was performed at the beginning of the project. Results: The majority of respondents (71%) could identify "high-risk groups" recommended for influenza vaccination. Furthermore, it was observed that individuals aged 21 to 59 demonstrated a higher level of knowledge in this regard compared to those below 20 and above 65 years old, and individuals with higher and medium education levels were much better at identifying risk groups for influenza virus infection. The majority of respondents (52.01%) reported receiving influenza vaccination at some point in the past, with 32.12% receiving it in the 2022–2023 flu season and 41.09% in the 2021–2022 season. The majority of respondents declaring acceptance of the vaccine for the 2022-2023 season were in the high-risk group. Only 17.28% of respondents declared receiving both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in the 2022-2023 season, with the vast majority being respondents from the "high-risk group" (p

Contract between grower and integrator has been used extensively in broiler industry all over the world. One important advantages of contract is risk management, in which contract shifts a portion of grower risk to integrator. Thus, this paper attempted to measure the amount of risk shifted from grower to integrator and the consequences of this benefit to grower. Using a panel data of actual production records of 46 Indonesian broiler growers for the period of January 2014 through December 2017, we systematically measure the amount of risk shifted to integrator and its consequences to grower. The results showed that 78.43% grower risk is shifted to integrator. However, to acquire this benefit grower receive 15% less income. Furthermore, grower face the possibility of losing their asset and stopping their production as the consequences of entering contract.

A review of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models of L. monocytogenes in produce was carried out, with the objective of appraising and contrasting the effectiveness of the control strategies placed along the food chains. Despite nine of the thirteen QRA models recovered focused on fresh or RTE leafy greens, none of them represented important factors or sources of contamination in the primary production, such as type of cultivation, water, fertilisers or irrigation method/practices. Cross-contamination at processing and during consumer’s handling was modelled using transfer rates, which were shown to moderately drive the final risk of listeriosis; highlighting therefore the importance of accurately representing the transfer coefficient parameters. Many QRA models coincided in the fact that temperature fluctuations at retail or temperature abuse at home were key factors contributing to increasing the risk of listeriosis. In addition to a primary module that could help assess current on-farm practices and potential control measures, future QRA models for minimally-processed produce should also contain a refined sanitisation module able to estimate the effectiveness of various sanitisers as a function of type, concentration and exposure time. Finally, L. monocytogenes growth in the products down the supply chain should be estimated by using realistic time-temperature trajectories, and validated microbial kinetic parameters, both of them currently available in the literature.

The most prevalent musculoskeletal disorder of childhood with unclear aetiology is Growing Pains (GPs). Anatomic deformities and factors that change bone turnover are implicated in GPs pathophysiology. Perinatal risk factors alter the bone metabolism affecting the bone mineral density and content. The aim of our study was to analyze the relationship between GPs, knock knees and perinatal factors. The examined population consisted of 276 children aged 3-7 years. Among them 10 pairs of dizygotic twins were evaluated. The data were collected by using a combination of semi-structured questionnaires, clinical examinations and medical charts of the children and the obstetric history of the mothers. 78 children presented GPs meeting Peterson’s criteria. Genu valgum severity was a significant factor for GPs manifestation and for their increased frequency and intensity. Subsequently, perinatal factors regarding gestational age, Apgar score, head circumference (lower than 33cm) and birth length or weight (smaller than 50 cm and 3000gr, respectively) made a remarkable contribution to the development of GPs. Conversely, antenatal corticosteroid treatment, increased maternal age and maternal smoking during pregnancy were not predictive for the disorder. Our data are potentially supportive for the “bone strength” theory and for the contribution of anatomical disturbances in GPs appearance.

Kyrgyzstan, a landlocked nation in Central Asia, is characterized by its rugged mountainous terrain, which covers approximately 90% of its land area. This unique geography poses specific challenges related to climate vulnerability. To address these challenges, we propose a comprehensive approach that involves gathering meteorological data and making it accessible to decision-makers. By leveraging LoRaWAN communication technology, which efficiently transmits sparse and low-speed data over long distances while minimizing power consumption, we can enhance climate resilience. The Internet Society Kyrgyz Chapter, in collaboration with the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) and the Central Asia Institute for Applied Geosciences (CAIAG), has initiated the installation of meteorological sensors and disaster mitigation devices, including river water level sensors, terrain moisture sensors, and tilt detectors. These sensors collect critical data, which is stored within the country on an ad hoc server. Stakeholders can access this data according to their specific requirements. This paper outlines the criteria for selecting the deployed equipment and provides details on the installation process at pilot sites, along with the challenges encountered during project execution.

Following the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, several studies have examined the possibility of correlating the virulence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, to the climatic conditions of the involved sites; however, inconclusive results have been generally obtained. Although either air temperature or humidity cannot be independently correlated with virus viability, a strong relationship between SARS-CoV-2 virulence and the specific enthalpy of moist air appears to exist, as confirmed by extensive data analysis. Given this framework, the present study involves a detailed investigation based on the first 20–30 days of the epidemic before public health interventions in 30 selected Italian provinces with rather different climates, here assumed as being representative of what happened in the country from North to South, of the relationship between COVID-19 distributions and the climatic conditions recorded at each site before the pandemic outbreak. Accordingly, a correlating equation between the incidence rate of the pandemic and the average specific enthalpy of atmospheric air was developed, and an enthalpy-based seasonal virulence risk scale was proposed as a tool to predict the potential danger of COVID-19 spread due to the persistence of weather conditions favorable to SARS-CoV-2 viability. For practical applications, a conclusive risk chart expressed in terms of coupled temperatures and relative humidity (RH) values was provided, showing that safer conditions occur in case of higher RH at the highest temperatures, and of lower RH at the lowest temperatures. The proposed risk scale was in agreement with the available infectivity data in the literature for a number of cities around the world.

An all-weather land surface temperature (LST) product derived at the Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) is presented. The product is based on clear-sky LST retrieved from MSG/SEVIRI infrared (IR) measurements, complemented by LST estimated with a land surface energy balance (EB) model to fill gaps caused by clouds. The EB model solves the surface energy balance mostly using products derived at LSA-SAF. The new product is compared with in situ observations made at 3 dedicated validation stations, and with a Microwave (MW) based LST product derived from AMSR-E measurements. The validation against in-situ LST indicates an accuracy of the new product between -0.8 K and 1.1 K and a precision between 1.0 K and 1.4 K, generally showing a better performance than the MW product. The EB model shows some limitations concerning the representation of the LST diurnal cycle. Comparisons with MW LST generally show higher LST of the new product over desert areas, and lower LST over tropical regions. Several other imagers provide suitable measurements for implementing the proposed methodology, which offers the potential to obtain a global, nearly gap-free LST product.

Deforestation is an important environmental problem in México and a key promoter of regional climate change through modifying the surface albedo. The objective of this research was to characterize the impact of deforestation and land use changes on surface albedo (α) and climate patterns in the Municipality of Tapalpa, Jalisco, México between the years 2014 and 2021. The main land cover types are coniferous forests (CF), oak and gallery woodlands (OGW), and annual agriculture (AA); which represent more than 88% of the regional territory (1066.03 km2). We used 2014 and 2021 Landsat 8 OLI images with topographic and atmospheric correction, in order to develop an inventory of albedo values for each land cover type in both time scenarios. Albedo images were generated by using the equation proposed by Liang in 2001, which is based on the reflectance of the bands 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7. Differences in albedo values were calculated between the years 2014 and 2021, and those differences were correlated with variations in climate parameters, for which we used climate data derived from the WRF model. In addition, the different land use changes found were classified in terms of triggers for increasing or decreasing surface albedo. Results showed that between 2014 and 2021, at least 38 events of land use change or deforestation occurred, with albedo increments between 1 and 11%, which triggered an average increment of 0.57% of the regional surface albedo in comparison to 2014 scenario. From 2014 to 2021, the albedo for CF, OGW, and AA, increased significantly (p&lt;0.001; Mann-Whitney U Test) by 79, 12, and 9%, respectively. In addition, the regional albedo increment was found to be significant and negatively correlated (p&lt;0.01 Spearman’s coefficient) with relative humidity (RH), maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and diurnal thermal range (DTR). The decrease in the regional values of relative humidity in 2021, occurred even when in that year the annual precipitation levels were higher than those of 2014, hence, reinforcing the fact of a possible climatic effect of the regional albedo changes. Conversion of CF and OGW into AA, perennial agriculture (PA), or grassland (GR) always yielded an albedo increment, whilst the conversion of AA to irrigation agriculture or PA triggered a decrease in albedo, and finally, the pass from GR or AA to protected agriculture caused albedo increase or decrease, depending on the greenhouse covers materials. Reducing deforestation of CF and OGW, conversion of AA or GR into PA, and selecting adequate greenhouse covers could help to mitigate regional climate change.