Forecast updates

These quick-response articles analyse key events in terms of how we expect them to affect our political and economic forecast, and are closely tied to the structure of our Country Report service.
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Politics | Forecast | Election watch |March 19th 2024

Lukashenka loyalists win Belarus's parliamentary poll

Recent elections will serve as a trial run for the presidential election next year.
Politics | Forecast | International relations |March 15th 2024

Europe chart of the week: Sweden joins NATO

Sweden and Finland's accession means that the Baltic Sea is now almost fully surrounded by NATO countries.
Politics | Forecast | International relations |January 9th 2024

Belarus's Lukashenka builds contacts in sub-Saharan Africa

Belarus is trying to develop relations with sub-Saharan Africa, but these efforts will prove insubstantial.
Politics | Forecast | Election watch |November 17th 2023

Europe chart of the week: the key elections in 2024

The European Parliament elections and votes in the UK, Austria and Portugal will be the ones to watch next year.
Politics | Forecast | International relations |October 18th 2023

Belarus to keep up pressure on Poland's incoming government

Tensions will remain elevated as Belarus continues to fuel instability on the Polish border.
Politics | Forecast | International relations |September 5th 2023

Europe chart of the week: Ukraine's swarm of drones

Russian border regions have proven particularly vulnerable to Ukrainian drone attacks.
Politics | Forecast | International relations |August 31st 2023

What are the implications of the deaths of Wagner leaders?

We do not expect a major impact in Ukraine, but there will be implications for security in some African countries.
Politics | Forecast | International relations |August 2nd 2023

Belarus's Lukashenka pledges unity with Russia

Belarus and Russia have renewed their pledges to support each other, but the rhetoric does not match reality.
Politics | Forecast | Political stability |June 26th 2023

Attempted coup ends fast, leaving many questions unanswered

The mutiny led by the Wagner paramilitary group is the biggest challenge to the Putin regime since the start of the war.
Politics | Forecast | International relations |April 28th 2023

Xi and Zelenskyi speak for first time since Russian invasion

The call does not increase the likelihood of a negotiated solution to the war in Ukraine.