Forecast updates

These quick-response articles analyse key events in terms of how we expect them to affect our political and economic forecast, and are closely tied to the structure of our Country Report service.
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Economy | Forecast | International assumptions |April 19th 2024

Oil prices will remain above US$80/b until late 2025

Demand will hit record highs in 2024-25, even though geopolitical pressures and OPEC+ cuts temper the supply response.
Economy | Forecast | External sector |April 4th 2024

Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project revived

Pakistan has said that it will seek a waiver of US sanctions to allow Iranian gas imports, but this will be denied.
Economy | Forecast | Exchange rates |March 22nd 2024

Iran's currency slumps at free-market exchange rate

The rial has breached IR600,000:US$ in the run up to the Iranian new year, hindering efforts to slow inflation.
Economy | Forecast | Economic growth |March 13th 2024

Iran seeks to stem falling output from South Pars gasfield

Iran has awarded US$20bn in contracts to local companies to boost pressure at the giant South Pars offshore gasfield.
Economy | Forecast | External sector |February 15th 2024

US steps up enforcement of Iranian oil trade sanctions

Despite new actions, seriously disrupting Iran's huge international oil-smuggling network will be difficult and costly.
Economy | Forecast | Economic growth |January 25th 2024

Iran faces seasonal gas supply challenges

The suspension of a gas swap agreement with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan has led to gas shortages in the north-east.
Economy | Forecast | Policy trends |January 23rd 2024

Houthi attacks threaten Qatari LNG exports via the Red Sea

Qatar will continue to sign long-term LNG deals with European countries but will remain reliant on buoyant Asian demand.
Economy | Forecast | Fiscal policy outlook |January 17th 2024

Iran budget debates highlight economic and financial strains

Members of parliament are pushing back against austerity measures aimed at curbing economically destabilising deficits.
Economy | Forecast | External sector |January 9th 2024

Global shipping costs are soaring

Inflationary pressures seem to be contained for now, but may complicate future monetary easing planned for 2024.
Economy | Forecast | External sector |December 13th 2023

Iran and Saudi Arabia edge towards closer economic ties

The leverage Iran gains from its influence on Yemen's Houthis may moderately enhance economic ties with Saudi Arabia.