In brief

Algeria will account for a growing proportion of European gas imports, owing to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Europe's need to find alternative sources of energy. Although rising gas exports and additional foreign investment in the country will boost Algeria's overall economic activity in 2024, prospects will remain constrained by an overcentralised management and an opaque business environment dominated by a small number of vested interests. Algeria's foreign-exchange reserves will increase in the medium term, owing to rising hydrocarbons export income. However, growing fiscal pressures later in our 2024-28 forecast period will push Algeria towards fiscal reforms and external borrowing, primarily from bilateral allies.

Read more: What to watch in 2024: Algeria