In brief

Ties between Belarus and Russia have strengthened since the latter's invasion of Ukraine, with Belarus acting as Russia's sole supporter in the war effort—an abandonment of the country's previous official policy of neutrality. Belarus will thus remain isolated from Europe over the 2024-28 forecast period as the war drags on and domestic support for the president, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, relies in large part on his ties to Russia and the support of Russia's security apparatus. Western sanctions will continue to hamper Belarus's economic activity, which will decelerate steadily throughout the forecast period, supported mainly by trade with Russia and non-aligned nations.

Read more: Belarus suspends participation in peace treaty

Read more: Belarus emerges from recession, with help from Russia