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In brief
The political outlook will remain extremely volatile in 2024-25 under the leadership of junta leader, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, due to governability challenges and widepsread insecurity, with large swathes of the country remaining outside government control. Planned elections in July 2024 as part of transitional agreement agreed with ECOWAS are unlikely to be delayed due to unfavourable security conditons and the junta's drive towards consolidating power. The junta is likely to introduce major constitutional reforms that entrench the role of the army in the political and electoral process. Should an election take place, Mr Traoré, or another military figure, will likely run and win, ensuring protracted military rule. Insecurity will continue to dampen Burkina Faso's growth potential and divert resources towards the war effort and tackling a severe humanitarian crisis. Growth will be supported by the agricultural sector as well as by gold and cotton output and exports. Burkina Faso has pivoted to Russia and evicted French forces in February 2023. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have formed an alliance, the Alliance of Sahel States, to deter threats against their rule, mainly coming from ECOWAS and its Western backers; all three countries have strengthened diplomatic and security relations with Russia.
Read more: Burkinabè coup leader named as transitional president
Red more: Burkina Faso expels French forces
Read more: Instability will remain high following foiled coup attempt against Mr Traoré
Read more: Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger form alternative political and security alliance
Read more: IMF approves new programme for Burkina Faso
Featured analysis
Gulf Co-operation Council's expanding African footprint
African sovereigns at high risk of distress
Sahel alliance unlikely to leave CFA franc in the near term
Economic growth
(% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
---|---|---|---|
US GDP | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
Developed economies GDP | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
World GDP | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
World trade | -0.9 | 2.8 | 3.5 |
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit |
Inflation indicators
(% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
---|---|---|---|
US CPI | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
Developed economies CPI | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
Manufactures (measured in US$) | 3.6 | 2.2 | 5.0 |
Oil (Brent; US$/b) | 76.4 | 73.0 | 70.5 |
Non-oil commodities (measured in US$) | -1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit |
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Financial variables
(% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
---|---|---|---|
US$ 3-month commercial paper rate (av; %) | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
¥ 3-month money market rate (av; %) | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
¥:US$ (av) | 120.8 | 118.8 | 114.3 |
Rmb:US$ (av) | 7.18 | 7.06 | 6.94 |
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit |