In brief

The political outlook will remain extremely volatile in 2024-25 under the leadership of junta leader, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, due to governability challenges and widepsread insecurity, with large swathes of the country remaining outside government control. Planned elections in July 2024 as part of transitional agreement agreed with ECOWAS are unlikely to be delayed due to unfavourable security conditons and the junta's drive towards consolidating power. The junta is likely to introduce major constitutional reforms that entrench the role of the army in the political and electoral process. Should an election take place, Mr Traoré, or another military figure, will likely run and win, ensuring protracted military rule. Insecurity will continue to dampen Burkina Faso's growth potential and divert resources towards the war effort and tackling a severe humanitarian crisis. Growth will be supported by the agricultural sector as well as by gold and cotton output and exports. Burkina Faso has pivoted to Russia and evicted French forces in February 2023. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have formed an alliance, the Alliance of Sahel States, to deter threats against their rule, mainly coming from ECOWAS and its Western backers; all three countries have strengthened diplomatic and security relations with Russia. 

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