In brief

The government is struggling to contain an Islamist insurgency, necessitating foreign assistance and troop deployments. The insurgency has caused severe delays to development of major liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. Nevertheless, a smaller offshore LNG project started in late 2022. We expect firmer real GDP growth in 2024 following the expected restart of construction activity at TotalEnergies' LNG project in the coming months. An IMF programme is progressing (as the government continues to pursue fiscal consolidation, although deeper reforms are lagging), despite the long-running debt scandal, which remains unresolved. The Fund programme will help to catalyse additional donor support to plug financing gaps and address development needs.

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