In brief

Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, is secure in his position, and we do not expect any regime change in 2024-28. Despite Syria's ongoing civil conflict, socioeconomic crisis and US-led sanctions, the Syrian army has solidified its control over most of the country and is highly unlikely to lose ground. The government continues to command the confidence of its primary external backers, Iran and Russia, and has made some progress in restoring ties with former Arab partners. On the economic front, we do not expect any implementation of the comprehensive economic and institutional reforms that are required to resolve the severe domestic economic and social crisis.

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