In brief

Uzbekistan is an authoritarian regime and a rapidly developing lower-middle-income country. Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the president, will continue to foster closer ties with neighbouring countries and attract foreign investment through economic liberalisation. We forecast that the economy will register robust growth in 2024-28, driven in part by continuing foreign direct investment, a growing population and increasing government spending. However, structural deficiencies, rampant corruption and extensive state involvement in the economy will continue to weigh on the business environment, potentially limiting foreign investment.

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