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August 16, 2024 8:10 PM UTC
Mexico's fiscal situation is becoming challenging, with a primary deficit emerging due to increased support for PEMEX and overestimated growth projections. The Debt/GDP ratio is expected to rise to around 50.8% by 2024, possibly stabilizing around 49-54% depending on fiscal consolidation efforts. Wh
August 16, 2024 2:28 PM UTC
EUR may come under pressure if PMIs remain relatively weak
GBP strength a little extended but should continue if PMIs remain strong
SEK may be vulnerable even though Riksbank rate cut is largely priced in
CAD would benefit if inflation data surprises on the upside
JPY still has the most potential for vo
August 16, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD with the greenback gaining strongly on strong U.S. data. SGD and CNY saw the largest losses of 0.47%, followed by CNH 0.45%, MYR 0.39%, CNH 0.43%, MYR 0.39%, IDR 0.11%, THB 0.10% and HKD 0.06%; the only winners are PHP 0.05% and TWD 0.
August 15, 2024 3:27 PM UTC
We expect July housing starts to fall by 6.1% to 1270k after a 3.0% increase in June, while permits fall by 6.5% to 1360k after a 3.9% increase in June. June’s gains came fully in the volatile multiples sector.
August 15, 2024 2:52 PM UTC
Argentina's July CPI rose 4.0%, the lowest since January 2022, yet still above the 2% crawling peg, suggesting real exchange rate appreciation. Year-over-year CPI fell to 263% from 271% in June, with further declines anticipated. Despite some inflation reduction under Milei, price distortions and re
August 15, 2024 1:47 PM UTC
July industrial production is weaker tan expected at -0.6% overall and-0.3% for manufacturing with strong data in June seeing significant negative revisions, though Hurricane Beryl was seen as taking 0.3% off the July data, while a sharp drop in autos took 0.6% off manufacturing output, leaving the
August 15, 2024 12:52 PM UTC
July retail sales with a stronger than expected 1.0% increase shows the consumer still has some momentum at the start of Q3, while a dip in initial claims to 227k from 234k suggests the labor market is not seeing increased weakness in early August. August manufacturing surveys from the Philly Fed at
August 15, 2024 10:05 AM UTC
Europe session
Subdued summer trading in Europe, with not much movement in spot rates. Next focus is the U.S. retail sales data. However, traders are also looking ahead to Fed Powell comments at Jackson Hole at the end of next week to see whether the Fed chair is leaning towards 25bps or 50bps