May 23
Susan Walsh/AP, FILE
Which states could get new congressional maps in 2024?
An updating tracker of developments in midcycle redistricting.
May 23, 2024Will RFK Jr. qualify for the June presidential debate?
He'd be the first third-party candidate in a general election debate since 1992.
May 22, 2024Many Haley voters won't back Trump. They weren't going to anyway.
But most Republicans and GOP leaners will stick with the party.
May 23, 2024
Latest 538 Video
Latest 538 Headlines
May 24
What to know about the UK’s July general election
With the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4, the electoral picture for the Conservative Party is currently negative and they have six weeks to try to change it.
May 24
May 24
Will Nikki Haley supporters vote for Trump?
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said on Wednesday that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall, but what will her supporters do?
May 24
May 23
Senate Democrats are polling well. That could help Biden.
Voters probably won't split their tickets as much as current polls suggest.
May 23
May 23
Many Haley voters won't back Trump. They weren't going to anyway.
But most Republicans and GOP leaners will stick with the party.
May 23
May 22
Will RFK Jr. qualify for the June presidential debate?
He'd be the first third-party candidate in a general election debate since 1992.
May 22
May 22
It doesn’t matter which candidate you’d rather have a beer with
The more relatable candidate doesn’t always win.
May 22
May 21
We’re hiring a news editor
Come work with 538 and ABC News.
May 21
May 20
Will there be record-breaking turnout for the 2024 election?
The team at 538 predicts how this year’s voter turnout will compare to the unusually high turnout during the 2018 and 2020 election cycles.
May 20
May 20
Will low voter enthusiasm affect election turnout?
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we examine the low voter enthusiasm for the presidential candidates. Are there other factors that could drive Americans to the polls?
May 20
May 20
Which candidate benefits more from early debates?
The 538 crew discusses the presidential debates and which candidate benefits more from their earlier-than-usual schedule.
May 20
May 20
6 elections to watch in Georgia, Oregon and Idaho
Outside groups have spent big bucks in Oregon’s Democratic primaries for House.
May 20
May 17
Democracy is a top concern for many voters. We asked them why.
Fear of another Trump presidency is pushing some undecided voters toward Biden.
May 17
May 16
What potential threats are experts and voters concerned about?
"Experts placed a really high probability on a number of very concerning norm breaking scenarios occurring," about a second Trump term, according to Gretchen Helmke.
May 16
May 16
Polls show some Americans are losing faith in our elections
Gretchen Helmke of Bright Line Watch discusses how Americans feel about our voting systems and American Democracy.
May 16
May 16
Why are voters worried about democracy?
In the latest polling from The New York Times/Siena College, 14% of voters said the economic and political system needs to be torn down entirely, while 55% said it needs major changes.
May 16
May 15
Biden’s path to winning the Electoral College runs through the Midwest
He's polling just short of Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
May 15
May 15
Are 'soccer moms' actually swing voters?
The second episode of our podcast miniseries "Campaign Throwback."
May 15
May 14
Maryland's contentious Senate race
The 538 crew dive into Tuesday's Democratic primary election in Maryland.
May 14
May 14
Has inflation been Biden's biggest political problem?
Polling shows that President Joe Biden has a negligible lead over former President Donald Trump when it comes to job creation, infrastructure and the economy.
May 14
May 13
Consolidating the Democratic base
538 Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich discusses what can be done to consolidate the Democratic vote behind President Joe Biden.
May 13
May 13
Biden still trails Trump in various polls
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew asks why the end of the primaries, weeks of Biden campaigning and millions spent on advertising have changed the polls so little.
May 13
May 13
10 primaries to watch in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia
Maryland's Democratic primary for Senate is flush with cash and intrigue.
May 13
May 10
Don’t write off Lauren Boebert just yet
After a terrible year, she's one win away from a House seat for life.
May 10
May 09
What are the odds of a Trump win this November?
The betting markets place the likelihood of Trump winning the 2024 election at 47% — but does 538 agree?
May 09
May 09
What are the odds Democrats will win the popular vote?
The 538 crew plays a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold” and puts their wisdom to the test.
May 09
May 09
Could we see a Biden-Trump debate?
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we play a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold” and look at where the betting markets place the likelihood of certain events this election season.
May 09
May 08
Why Noem blaming shooting her dog on the realities of rural life doesn’t add up
As a rural dog owner, I know Noem's story is far from normal.
May 08
May 08
Is it still the economy, stupid?
In a new series, we look back at political wisdom from past campaigns.
May 08
May 06
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says poll shows he could beat Trump
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we ask if a new poll from the Robert F. Kennedy Jr. campaign is a good or bad use of polling.
May 06
May 06
Will Biden's handling of Gaza impact the 2024 election?
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we dig into how campus protests over the war in Gaza could shape Americans' votes this fall.
May 06
May 06
Youth polling shows Israel-Hamas war is not a top issue for 2024 election
538 Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley breaks down which issues are most important to America’s youth.
May 06
May 03
538 algorithm groups House members by how they actually vote
538 researcher and editor Cooper Burton joins the podcast to break down a new algorithm built to cluster House members into “quiet caucuses” based on their voting trends.
May 03
May 02
How voters view the economy depends on their politics — and personal lives
538 senior politics reporter Monica Potts joins the podcast to discuss the results from a focus group with undecided voters.
May 02
May 02
Focus group shows voters are down on the economy
538 senior politics reporter Monica Potts joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the results from a focus group with undecided voters.
May 02
May 02
How Trump's hush money trial is affecting his standing in the polls
538’s Galen Druke discusses how voters are reacting to the former president’s criminal trial.
May 02
April 29
Judge has few options to address Trump’s alleged gag order violations
Law professor Jessica Roth joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the latest developments in Donald Trump’s hush money trial.
April 29
April 29
Trump’s Jan. 6 trial might not start anytime soon
Law professor Jessica Roth joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss how the Supreme Court could rule on presidential immunity.
April 29
April 29
Who could testify at Trump’s trial this week?
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, law professor Jessica Roth discusses what comes next in Donald Trump’s hush money trial.
April 29
April 25
538's new polling averages show close presidential race
The 538 presidential general election polling averages are officially live!
April 25
April 24
Trump leads in swing-state polls and is tied with Biden nationally
How 538's new 2024 presidential general election polling averages work.
April 24
April 23
Are Mike Johnson’s days as House speaker numbered? | 538 Politics Podcast
After months of conflict over whether or how to aid American allies abroad, the House passed a slate of bills providing funding for Ukraine, Israel, Gazan humanitarian assistance and Taiwan.
April 23
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