The Cuban national Integrated Medical Emergeny System or "Sistema Integrado de Urgencias Med... more The Cuban national Integrated Medical Emergeny System or "Sistema Integrado de Urgencias Medicas" (SIUM) was formed in 1997. In 1998, the SIUM began an active out-of-hospital thrombolysis program using Heberkinasa, the only streptokinase obtained through recombinant DNA techniques, produced by the Cuban Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology. An active community training program has also been implemented, standardizing training for the almost 20,000 members of the national emergency medical services.
The objective of our study was to assess the diagnostic quality of low-dose computed tomography (... more The objective of our study was to assess the diagnostic quality of low-dose computed tomography (CT) when compared to ultrasound (US) in diagnosis of urolithiasis using STONE score as a predictor of pre-test probability and the Bayesian statistical model to calculate post-test probabilities (POST) for both diagnostic tests. STONE score was used to form risk groups to obtain pre-test probabilities. Likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated from external data for low-dose CT and US. POST were obtained using pre-test probabilities and likelihood ratios with Bayesian nomogram. Absolute (ADG) and relative (RDG) gains in diagnostic value were calculated. Calculated +LR for US was 12 and -LR was 0.32; for CT, +LR was 19 and -LR 0.04. +LR and low STONE for US yielded POST 57% and RDG 470%; intermediate STONE POST 92% and RDG 84%; and high STONE POST 99% and RDG 10%. -LR and low STONE for US POST 3% and RDG -70%; intermediate POST 24% and RDG -52%; and high STONE POST 74% and RDG -17.7%. +LR an...
Introduction:No widely accepted, specialized medical training exists for police officers confront... more Introduction:No widely accepted, specialized medical training exists for police officers confronted with medical emergencies while under conditions of active threat. The purpose of this study was to assess medical decisionmaking capabilities of law enforcement personnel under these circumstances.Methods:Web-based surveys were administered to all sworn officers within the county jurisdiction.Thirty-eight key actions were predetermined for nine injured officer scenarios, with each correct action worth one point.Descriptive statistics and t-tests were used to analyze results.Results:Ninety-seven officers (65.1% response rate) responded to the survey. The majority of officers (68.0%) were trained to the first-responder level. Overall mean score for the scenarios was 15.5 ±3.6 (range 7–25). A higher level of medical training (EMT-B/P versus first responder) was associated with a higher mean score (16.6 ±3.4, p = 0.05 vs. 15.0 ±3.6, p = 0.05).Tactical unit assignment was associated with a...
Background: Bayes' theorem describes the probability of an event, based on conditions that mi... more Background: Bayes' theorem describes the probability of an event, based on conditions that might be related to the event.[1] We developed the Bayesian Diagnostic Gains (BDG) method as a simple tool for interpreting diagnostic impact.[2],[3],[4],[5],[6],[7] Aim: We aimed to evaluate the clinical diagnostic impact of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) compared to traditional abdominal computed tomography (CT) and standard ultrasound (US) in a Bayesian Clinical Decision Scheme. Materials and Methods: Our mathematical method uses Bayesian Diagnostic Gains (BDG) model. For the purposes of our model, the EMTRAS was used as pretest probability and stratified as low risk (0–3 points = 10%), moderate risk (4–6 points = 42%), and high risk (7–12 points = 80%) based on mortality risk. Sensitivity and specificity for US, CT, and CEUS were obtained from pooled data and used to calculate LR- and LR+. Bayesian/Fagan nomogram was used to attain posttest probabilities using baseline probability...
Research within security studies has struggled to determine whether infectious disease (ID) repre... more Research within security studies has struggled to determine whether infectious disease (ID) represents an existential threat to national and international security. With the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), it is imperative to reexamine the relationship between ID and global security. This article addresses the specific threat to security from COVID-19, asking, “Is COVID-19 a threat to national and international security?” To investigate this question, this article uses two theoretical approaches: human security and biosecurity. It argues that COVID-19 is a threat to global security by the ontological crisis posed to individuals through human security theory and through high politics, as evidenced by biosecurity. By viewing security threats through the lens of the individual and the state, it becomes clear that ID should be considered an international security threat. This article examines the relevant literature and applies the theoretical framework to a case study analysis focu...
A terrorist attack on US schools no longer can be considered a Black Swan event. Mounting evidenc... more A terrorist attack on US schools no longer can be considered a Black Swan event. Mounting evidence suggests that extremist organizations actively are targeting US schools. Equally disturbing are data suggesting that schools, universities, and communities are unprepared for large-scale violence. The Operational Medicine Institute Conference on an Integrated Response to the Modern Urban Terrorist Threat revealed significant variations in the perceived threats and critical response gaps among emergency medical providers, law enforcement personnel, politicians, and security specialists. The participants recommended several steps to address these gaps in preparedness, training, responses, and recovery.
Introduction: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 is a major health concern worldwide. The objecti... more Introduction: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 is a major health concern worldwide. The objective was to develop a Bayesian model to predict critical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Methods: Sensitivity and specificity were obtained from previous meta-analysis. Using the IVC-COV2 index as pretest probability, likelihood ratios were integrated in a Fagan nomogram for posttest probabilities, generating IVC-COV2 + NEWS and CURB-65 scores values. Absolute and Relative Diagnostic Gains (ADG, RDG) were calculated. Results: The IVC-COV2 index was derived from a population of 1,055,746 individuals and based on mortality divided into high (71.97%) Intermediate (26.11%) and low (1.91%) risk groups. Integrating the IVC-COV2 intermediate + NEWS≥5 and CURB-65 >2 score models found that the Number Needed to Diagnose demonstrated a slight improvement for the CURB-65 model [2.00 (2) vs 2.71(3)]. When comparing diagnostic gains, no statistical differences were found on the IVC-CoV2 NEWS mod...
Background Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is one of the leading causes of morbidity and morta... more Background Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in the USA. Our objective was to assess the predictive value on critical illness and disposition of a sequential Bayesian Model that integrates Lactate and procalcitonin (PCT) for pneumonia. Methods Sensitivity and specificity of lactate and PCT attained from pooled meta-analysis data. Likelihood ratios calculated and inserted in Bayesian/ Fagan nomogram to calculate posttest probabilities. Bayesian Diagnostic Gains (BDG) were analyzed comparing pre and post-test probability. To assess the value of integrating both PCT and Lactate in Severity of Illness Prediction we built a model that combined CURB65 with PCT as the Pre-Test markers and later integrated the Lactate Likelihood Ratio Values to generate a combined CURB 65 + Procalcitonin + Lactate Sequential value. Results The BDG model integrated a CUBR65 Scores combined with Procalcitonin (LR+ and LR-) for Pre-Test Probability Inter...
Background Dignitary medicine is an emerging field of training that involves the specialized care... more Background Dignitary medicine is an emerging field of training that involves the specialized care of diplomats, heads of state, and other high-ranking officials. In an effort to provide guidance on training in this nascent field, we convened a panel of experts in dignitary medicine and using the Delphi methodology, created a consensus curriculum for training in dignitary medicine. Methods A three-round Delphi consensus process was performed with 42 experts in the field of dignitary medicine. Predetermined scores were required for an aspect of the curriculum to advance to the next round. The scores on the final round were used to determine the components of the curriculum. Scores below the threshold to advance were dropped in the subsequent round. Results Our panel had a high degree of agreement on the required skills needed to practice dignitary medicine, with active practice in a provider’s baseline specialty, current board certification, and skills in emergency care and resuscitat...
Our objective was to evaluate the diagnostic value of computed tomography angiography (CTA) and v... more Our objective was to evaluate the diagnostic value of computed tomography angiography (CTA) and ventilation perfusion (V/Q) scan in the assessment of pulmonary embolism (PE) by means of a Bayesian statistical model. Wells criteria defined pretest probability. Sensitivity and specificity of CTA and V/Q scan for PE were derived from pooled meta-analysis data. Likelihood ratios calculated for CTA and V/Q were inserted in the nomogram. Absolute (ADG) and relative diagnostic gains (RDG) were analyzed comparing post- and pretest probability. Comparative gain difference was calculated for CTA ADG over V/Q scan integrating ANOVA p value set at 0.05. The sensitivity for CT was 86.0% (95% CI: 80.2%, 92.1%) and specificity of 93.7% (95% CI: 91.1%, 96.3%). The V/Q scan yielded a sensitivity of 96% (95% CI: 95%, 97%) and a specificity of 97% (95% CI: 96%, 98%). Bayes nomogram results for CTA were low risk and yielded a posttest probability of 71.1%, an ADG of 56.1%, and an RDG of 374%, moderate-...
Introduction:The importance of accessing care within the first hour after injury has been a funda... more Introduction:The importance of accessing care within the first hour after injury has been a fundamental tenet of trauma system planning for 30 years. However, the scientific basis for this belief either has been missing or largely derived from case series from trauma centers. This study sought to determine the correlation between prehospital times and outcomes among severely injured elderly patients.Methods:This is a cross-sectional, observational study. All adults (<18 years of age) with acute trauma as defined byThe International Classification of Diseases Ninth Edition, Clinical Modificationdiagnostic codes and E-codes were included. Poisonings, single system burns, and late effects of injury were excluded. Chi-square and Student's ttest were used for significance testing. To assess the predictive effects of prehospital time and outcomes, three inde-pendent logistic regression models were constructed for both young and elderly groups, with hospital length of stay, mortalit...
The Cuban national Integrated Medical Emergeny System or "Sistema Integrado de Urgencias Med... more The Cuban national Integrated Medical Emergeny System or "Sistema Integrado de Urgencias Medicas" (SIUM) was formed in 1997. In 1998, the SIUM began an active out-of-hospital thrombolysis program using Heberkinasa, the only streptokinase obtained through recombinant DNA techniques, produced by the Cuban Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology. An active community training program has also been implemented, standardizing training for the almost 20,000 members of the national emergency medical services.
The objective of our study was to assess the diagnostic quality of low-dose computed tomography (... more The objective of our study was to assess the diagnostic quality of low-dose computed tomography (CT) when compared to ultrasound (US) in diagnosis of urolithiasis using STONE score as a predictor of pre-test probability and the Bayesian statistical model to calculate post-test probabilities (POST) for both diagnostic tests. STONE score was used to form risk groups to obtain pre-test probabilities. Likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated from external data for low-dose CT and US. POST were obtained using pre-test probabilities and likelihood ratios with Bayesian nomogram. Absolute (ADG) and relative (RDG) gains in diagnostic value were calculated. Calculated +LR for US was 12 and -LR was 0.32; for CT, +LR was 19 and -LR 0.04. +LR and low STONE for US yielded POST 57% and RDG 470%; intermediate STONE POST 92% and RDG 84%; and high STONE POST 99% and RDG 10%. -LR and low STONE for US POST 3% and RDG -70%; intermediate POST 24% and RDG -52%; and high STONE POST 74% and RDG -17.7%. +LR an...
Introduction:No widely accepted, specialized medical training exists for police officers confront... more Introduction:No widely accepted, specialized medical training exists for police officers confronted with medical emergencies while under conditions of active threat. The purpose of this study was to assess medical decisionmaking capabilities of law enforcement personnel under these circumstances.Methods:Web-based surveys were administered to all sworn officers within the county jurisdiction.Thirty-eight key actions were predetermined for nine injured officer scenarios, with each correct action worth one point.Descriptive statistics and t-tests were used to analyze results.Results:Ninety-seven officers (65.1% response rate) responded to the survey. The majority of officers (68.0%) were trained to the first-responder level. Overall mean score for the scenarios was 15.5 ±3.6 (range 7–25). A higher level of medical training (EMT-B/P versus first responder) was associated with a higher mean score (16.6 ±3.4, p = 0.05 vs. 15.0 ±3.6, p = 0.05).Tactical unit assignment was associated with a...
Background: Bayes' theorem describes the probability of an event, based on conditions that mi... more Background: Bayes' theorem describes the probability of an event, based on conditions that might be related to the event.[1] We developed the Bayesian Diagnostic Gains (BDG) method as a simple tool for interpreting diagnostic impact.[2],[3],[4],[5],[6],[7] Aim: We aimed to evaluate the clinical diagnostic impact of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) compared to traditional abdominal computed tomography (CT) and standard ultrasound (US) in a Bayesian Clinical Decision Scheme. Materials and Methods: Our mathematical method uses Bayesian Diagnostic Gains (BDG) model. For the purposes of our model, the EMTRAS was used as pretest probability and stratified as low risk (0–3 points = 10%), moderate risk (4–6 points = 42%), and high risk (7–12 points = 80%) based on mortality risk. Sensitivity and specificity for US, CT, and CEUS were obtained from pooled data and used to calculate LR- and LR+. Bayesian/Fagan nomogram was used to attain posttest probabilities using baseline probability...
Research within security studies has struggled to determine whether infectious disease (ID) repre... more Research within security studies has struggled to determine whether infectious disease (ID) represents an existential threat to national and international security. With the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), it is imperative to reexamine the relationship between ID and global security. This article addresses the specific threat to security from COVID-19, asking, “Is COVID-19 a threat to national and international security?” To investigate this question, this article uses two theoretical approaches: human security and biosecurity. It argues that COVID-19 is a threat to global security by the ontological crisis posed to individuals through human security theory and through high politics, as evidenced by biosecurity. By viewing security threats through the lens of the individual and the state, it becomes clear that ID should be considered an international security threat. This article examines the relevant literature and applies the theoretical framework to a case study analysis focu...
A terrorist attack on US schools no longer can be considered a Black Swan event. Mounting evidenc... more A terrorist attack on US schools no longer can be considered a Black Swan event. Mounting evidence suggests that extremist organizations actively are targeting US schools. Equally disturbing are data suggesting that schools, universities, and communities are unprepared for large-scale violence. The Operational Medicine Institute Conference on an Integrated Response to the Modern Urban Terrorist Threat revealed significant variations in the perceived threats and critical response gaps among emergency medical providers, law enforcement personnel, politicians, and security specialists. The participants recommended several steps to address these gaps in preparedness, training, responses, and recovery.
Introduction: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 is a major health concern worldwide. The objecti... more Introduction: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 is a major health concern worldwide. The objective was to develop a Bayesian model to predict critical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Methods: Sensitivity and specificity were obtained from previous meta-analysis. Using the IVC-COV2 index as pretest probability, likelihood ratios were integrated in a Fagan nomogram for posttest probabilities, generating IVC-COV2 + NEWS and CURB-65 scores values. Absolute and Relative Diagnostic Gains (ADG, RDG) were calculated. Results: The IVC-COV2 index was derived from a population of 1,055,746 individuals and based on mortality divided into high (71.97%) Intermediate (26.11%) and low (1.91%) risk groups. Integrating the IVC-COV2 intermediate + NEWS≥5 and CURB-65 >2 score models found that the Number Needed to Diagnose demonstrated a slight improvement for the CURB-65 model [2.00 (2) vs 2.71(3)]. When comparing diagnostic gains, no statistical differences were found on the IVC-CoV2 NEWS mod...
Background Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is one of the leading causes of morbidity and morta... more Background Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in the USA. Our objective was to assess the predictive value on critical illness and disposition of a sequential Bayesian Model that integrates Lactate and procalcitonin (PCT) for pneumonia. Methods Sensitivity and specificity of lactate and PCT attained from pooled meta-analysis data. Likelihood ratios calculated and inserted in Bayesian/ Fagan nomogram to calculate posttest probabilities. Bayesian Diagnostic Gains (BDG) were analyzed comparing pre and post-test probability. To assess the value of integrating both PCT and Lactate in Severity of Illness Prediction we built a model that combined CURB65 with PCT as the Pre-Test markers and later integrated the Lactate Likelihood Ratio Values to generate a combined CURB 65 + Procalcitonin + Lactate Sequential value. Results The BDG model integrated a CUBR65 Scores combined with Procalcitonin (LR+ and LR-) for Pre-Test Probability Inter...
Background Dignitary medicine is an emerging field of training that involves the specialized care... more Background Dignitary medicine is an emerging field of training that involves the specialized care of diplomats, heads of state, and other high-ranking officials. In an effort to provide guidance on training in this nascent field, we convened a panel of experts in dignitary medicine and using the Delphi methodology, created a consensus curriculum for training in dignitary medicine. Methods A three-round Delphi consensus process was performed with 42 experts in the field of dignitary medicine. Predetermined scores were required for an aspect of the curriculum to advance to the next round. The scores on the final round were used to determine the components of the curriculum. Scores below the threshold to advance were dropped in the subsequent round. Results Our panel had a high degree of agreement on the required skills needed to practice dignitary medicine, with active practice in a provider’s baseline specialty, current board certification, and skills in emergency care and resuscitat...
Our objective was to evaluate the diagnostic value of computed tomography angiography (CTA) and v... more Our objective was to evaluate the diagnostic value of computed tomography angiography (CTA) and ventilation perfusion (V/Q) scan in the assessment of pulmonary embolism (PE) by means of a Bayesian statistical model. Wells criteria defined pretest probability. Sensitivity and specificity of CTA and V/Q scan for PE were derived from pooled meta-analysis data. Likelihood ratios calculated for CTA and V/Q were inserted in the nomogram. Absolute (ADG) and relative diagnostic gains (RDG) were analyzed comparing post- and pretest probability. Comparative gain difference was calculated for CTA ADG over V/Q scan integrating ANOVA p value set at 0.05. The sensitivity for CT was 86.0% (95% CI: 80.2%, 92.1%) and specificity of 93.7% (95% CI: 91.1%, 96.3%). The V/Q scan yielded a sensitivity of 96% (95% CI: 95%, 97%) and a specificity of 97% (95% CI: 96%, 98%). Bayes nomogram results for CTA were low risk and yielded a posttest probability of 71.1%, an ADG of 56.1%, and an RDG of 374%, moderate-...
Introduction:The importance of accessing care within the first hour after injury has been a funda... more Introduction:The importance of accessing care within the first hour after injury has been a fundamental tenet of trauma system planning for 30 years. However, the scientific basis for this belief either has been missing or largely derived from case series from trauma centers. This study sought to determine the correlation between prehospital times and outcomes among severely injured elderly patients.Methods:This is a cross-sectional, observational study. All adults (<18 years of age) with acute trauma as defined byThe International Classification of Diseases Ninth Edition, Clinical Modificationdiagnostic codes and E-codes were included. Poisonings, single system burns, and late effects of injury were excluded. Chi-square and Student's ttest were used for significance testing. To assess the predictive effects of prehospital time and outcomes, three inde-pendent logistic regression models were constructed for both young and elderly groups, with hospital length of stay, mortalit...
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