Bailey Cole
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Bailey Cole (Libertarian Party) is running for election to the U.S. House to represent Texas' 28th Congressional District. He is on the ballot in the general election on November 5, 2024. He advanced from the Libertarian Party convention on March 23, 2024.
2024 battleground election
Ballotpedia identified the November 5 general election as a battleground race. The summary below is from our coverage of this election, found here.
Incumbent Henry Cuellar (D), Jay Furman (R), and Bailey Cole (L) are running in the general election in Texas' 28th Congressional District on November 5, 2024.
The election is taking place after Cuellar's indictment on charges of bribery, money laundering, and acting as an unregistered agent of a foreign government. The Department of Justice charged Cuellar and his wife with 14 criminal counts on May 3, 2024. The indictment said the couple had accepted money from a Mexican bank and from Azerbaijan's state-owned oil company in exchange for official acts Cuellar carried out as a member of Congress.[1] As of July 30, 2024, jury selection for Cuellar's trial was scheduled to begin March 31, 2025.[2] In a statement following the indictment, Cuellar said he had not done anything illegal: "Everything I have done in Congress has been to serve the people of South Texas...Before I took action, I proactively sought legal advice from the House Ethics Committee, who gave me more than one written opinion, along with an additional opinion from a national law firm."[3] Click here for more on the indictment.
A Democrat has represented the 28th district since it was created following the 1990 census.[4] In the 2022 election, Cuellar defeated Cassy Garcia (R) 56.7% to 43.3%. As of July 17, 2024, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball rated the election Lean Democratic and Decision Desk HQ and The Hill and Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rated it Likely Democratic.
First elected in 2004, Cuellar is an attorney and former state legislator. Cuellar says he is one of the most bipartisan and most educated members of Congress. Cuellar says his "principles are based on the belief that education, family values and hard work should open doors to new opportunities for all Americans."[5]
Furman is a U.S. Navy veteran. Furman says he is running because after retiring from the Navy and returning to Texas, he was "shocked by our fake borders, lost freedoms, and sky-rocketing prices...bad policies causing problems that are clear and present dangers to South Texan’s safety, freedom, and survival." Furman says it is "time for Texans of every heritage to hold the line and defend this land from all enemies, foreign and domestic."[6]
Based on Q2 2024 reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Cuellar raised $2.1 million and spent $1.8 million and Furman raised $0.2 million and spent $0.2 million. To review all the campaign finance figures in full detail, click here.
All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election in 2024. Republicans have a 220 to 211 majority with four vacancies.[7] As of June 2024, 45 members of the U.S. House had announced they were not running for re-election. To read more about the U.S. House elections taking place this year, click here.
In the 2022 election in this district, Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. [8]
Elections
2024
See also: Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2024
Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2024 (March 5 Republican primary)
Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2024 (March 5 Democratic primary)
General election
The candidate list in this election may not be complete.
General election for U.S. House Texas District 28
Incumbent Henry Cuellar, Jay Furman, and Bailey Cole are running in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 28 on November 5, 2024.
Candidate | ||
 | Henry Cuellar (D) | |
 | Jay Furman (R) | |
| Bailey Cole (L) | |
| ||||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
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Republican primary runoff election
Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 28
Jay Furman defeated Lazaro Garza Jr. in the Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 28 on May 28, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Jay Furman | 65.3 | 8,297 |
 | Lazaro Garza Jr. | 34.7 | 4,410 | |
| Total votes: 12,707 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 28
Incumbent Henry Cuellar advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 28 on March 5, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Henry Cuellar | 100.0 | 35,550 |
| Total votes: 35,550 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 28
Jay Furman and Lazaro Garza Jr. advanced to a runoff. They defeated Jose Sanz and Jimmy León in the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 28 on March 5, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Jay Furman | 44.8 | 12,036 |
| ✔ | | Lazaro Garza Jr. | 27.1 | 7,283 |
 | Jose Sanz | 20.5 | 5,502 | |
 | Jimmy León | 7.5 | 2,021 | |
| Total votes: 26,842 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Kyle Sinclair (R)
- Maria Perez (R)
Libertarian convention
Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 28
Bailey Cole advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 28 on March 23, 2024.
Candidate | ||
| ✔ | | Bailey Cole (L) |
| ||||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
We provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. We will regularly check for polling aggregation for this race from those sites and add polls here once available. To notify us of polls available on either outlet for this race, please email us.
Election campaign finance
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cuellar | Democratic Party | $2,176,689 | $1,870,805 | $350,709 | As of June 30, 2024 |
| Jay Furman | Republican Party | $227,167 | $209,877 | $17,289 | As of June 30, 2024 |
| Bailey Cole | Libertarian Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
Satellite spending
- See also: Satellite spending
Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[9][10][11]
If available, this section includes links to online resources tracking satellite spending in this election. To notify us of a resource to add, email us.
| By candidate | By election |
|---|---|
Note: As of July 15, 2024, Bailey Cole (L) had not registered as a candidate with the Federal Election Commission.
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[12]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[13][14][15]
| Race ratings: Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2024 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| August 20, 2024 | August 13, 2024 | August 6, 2024 | July 30, 2024 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | |||||
| Decision Desk HQ and The Hill | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week. | |||||||||
Endorsements
Ballotpedia is gathering information about candidate endorsements. To send us an endorsement, click here.
Campaign themes
2024
Ballotpedia survey responses
See also: Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection
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Campaign ads
Campaign finance summary
Campaign finance information for this candidate is not yet available from the Federal Elections Commission. That information will be published here once it is available.
See also
2024 Elections
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ U.S. Department of Justice, "U.S. Congressman Henry Cuellar Charged with Bribery and Acting as a Foreign Agent," May 3, 2024
- ↑ The Texas Tribune, "Henry Cuellar’s corruption trial delayed until after election," June 7, 2024
- ↑ Associated Press, "Democratic US Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas and his wife are indicted over ties to Azerbaijan," May 3, 2024
- ↑ Our Campaigns, "TX - District 28 - History," accessed July 17, 2024
- ↑ Henry Cuellar 2024 campaign website, "Biography," accessed July 17, 2024
- ↑ Jay Furman 2024 campaign website, "About," accessed July 17, 2024
- ↑ A majority in the U.S. House when there are no vacancies is 218 seats.
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts," accessed September 15, 2022
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," December 12, 2021
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
