Open seats in state legislative elections, 2021

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Last updated on September 17, 2021
2021 State Legislative Competitiveness
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There were 220 state legislative seats up for election on November 2, 2021, across two states: New Jersey and Virginia.

This page analyzes open seats in those state legislative races. Ballotpedia considers a seat to be open if the incumbent legislator did not file to run for re-election or if he or she filed for re-election but withdrew before the primary.[1] When a seat is open, it is guaranteed that a new legislator will take office at the start of the next session.

In 2021:

  • 92.3% of incumbents (203) filed to seek re-election, the highest rate since 2013 which saw 93.2% of incumbents seeking re-election.
  • 7.7% of incumbents (17) did not file to seek re-election leaving those seats open, meaning new legislators were guaranteed to win those seats.[2]
  • Of the 17 incumbents who did not file for re-election, seven (42.2%) were Democrats and ten (58.8%) were Republicans.
  • Neither New Jersey nor Virginia had state legislative term limits, meaning all open seats were left by incumbents choosing not to file for re-election.


    • The table below shows a national overview of open seats in the 2021 state legislative elections broken down by party and chamber.


    Overview of open seats in state legislative elections, 2021
    Chamber Seats Democratic Republican Total
    Open % Open % Open %
    Senate 40 1 2.5% 3 7.5% 4 10%
    House 180 6 3.3% 7 3.9% 13 7.2%
    Total 220 7 3.2% 10 4.5% 17 7.7%

    Open seats by state

    Two states—New Jersey and Virginia—held state legislative elections in 2021. New Jersey held elections in the House and Senate. Virginia held elections in the House.

    The chart below shows the number of open seats relative to the number of incumbents who filed for re-election across all state legislative elections in 2021. Use the links on the graphic to view state- or chamber-specific information.

    The table below shows information on open seats and guaranteed new legislators in those states. The "Seats up" column shows the total number of seats up for election. The "Open Democratic" and "Open Republican" columns show the number of open seats based on the party affiliation of their incumbents. The "% of seats up" columns show the open seat figures as a percentage of the total number of seats up for election.

    Open state legislative seats, 2021
    State Chamber Seats up
    Democratic Republican Total
    # % of seats up # % of seats up # % of seats up
    New Jersey
    Senate 40 1 2.5% 3 7.5% 4 10.0%
    House 80 5 6.3% 3 3.8% 8 10.0%
    Total 120 6 5.0% 6 5.0% 12 10.0%
    Virginia[3]
    Senate 0 - - - - - -
    House 100 1 1.0% 4 4.0% 5 5.0%
    Total 100 1 1.0% 4 4.0% 5 5.0%
    Nationwide
    Senate 40 1 2.5% 3 7.5% 4 10.0%
    House 180 6 3.3% 7 3.9% 13 7.2%
    Total 220 7 3.2% 10 4.5% 17 7.7%

    Historical context

    The percentage of open seats in 2021, 7.7%, was the lowest since 2013 when 6.8% of state legislative seats up for election were open. In New Jersey, 10.0% of seats (12) were open in 2021, tied with 2017 for the second-highest rate in the state since 2011. In Virginia, 5.0% of seats (5) were open, a decade-low rate for the state.

    Four states—Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia—hold state legislative elections in odd-numbered years. New Jersey and Virginia hold elections every two years, whereas Louisiana and Mississippi hold them every four years. The chart below shows historical open seat information in those four states from 2011 to 2021. Use the "See also" links to view specific historical information for New Jersey and Virginia.


    Click "Show more" to read more about historical open seat rates in odd-numbered election years from 2011 to 2021.

    Show more

    2019

    See also: Open seats in the 2019 state legislative elections

    In 2019, there were 103 guaranteed new legislators in state legislative elections due to incumbents not seeking re-election. Open seats represented 19.1% of the 538 state legislative seats up for election that year.

    2017

    See also: Open seats in the 2017 state legislative elections

    In 2017, there were 19 guaranteed new legislators in state legislative elections due to incumbents not seeking re-election. Open seats represented 8.6% of the 220 state legislative seats up for election that year.

    2015

    See also: Open seats in the 2015 state legislative elections

    In 2015, there were 75 guaranteed new legislators in state legislative elections due to incumbents not seeking re-election. Open seats represented 13.9% of the 538 state legislative seats up for election that year.

    2013

    See also: Open seats in the 2013 state legislative elections

    In 2013, there were 15 guaranteed new legislators in state legislative elections due to incumbents not seeking re-election. Open seats represented 6.8% of the 220 state legislative seats up for election that year.

    2011

    See also: Open seats in the 2011 state legislative elections

    In 2011, there were 105 guaranteed new legislators in state legislative elections due to incumbents not seeking re-election. Open seats represented 18.2% of the 578 state legislative seats up for election that year.

    Impact of term limits

    See also: Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2021

    Neither New Jersey nor Virginia had state legislative term limits, meaning all open seats were left by incumbents choosing not to file for re-election.

    Term limits affect the members of 29 legislative chambers in 15 states. There are 1,972 state senate seats and 5,411 state house seats in the U.S. Of the 1,972 senate seats, 562 seats (29%) are subject to term limits. Of the 5,411 house seats, 1,368 seats (25%) are subject to term limits.

    Historical context

    Of the four states that hold state legislative elections in odd-numbered years—Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia—only Louisiana mandated term limits for state legislators as of 2021. Since Louisiana holds state legislative elections every four years, term limits only affect state legislative open seats across these states in odd-numbered years following midterm elections (i.e. 2015, 2019, 2023).

    The chart below breaks down open seat figures into voluntary open seats where the incumbent chose not to seek re-election and term-limited open seats where the incumbent was unable to seek re-election due to term limit laws.


    Click "Show more" to read more about historical affect of term-limits on state legislative open seats in odd-numbered election years from 2011 to 2021.

    Show more

    2019

    See also: Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2019

    In 2019, 103 state legislative seats were open, 45.6% of which (47) were caused by term-limits. Term-limited legislators represented 8.7% of the 538 seats up for election that year.

    2017

    No states with term limits held elections in 2017.

    2015

    See also: Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2015

    In 2015, 75 state legislative seats were open, 29.3% of which (22) were caused by term-limits. Term-limited legislators represented 4.1% of the 538 state legislative seats up for election that year.

    2013

    No states with term limits held elections in 2013.

    2011

    See also: Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2011

    In 2011, 105 state legislative seats were open, 15.2% of which (16) were caused by term-limits. Term-limited legislators represented 2.8% of the 578 state legislative seats up for election that year.

    Compared to 2020

    See also: Open seats in the 2020 state legislative elections

    Most states hold state legislative elections in even years, with 5,875 state legislative seats most recently up for election on November 3, 2020. This section provides a brief comparison with topline open seat figures from the 2020 state legislative elections.

    • 85.1% of incumbents (5,001) sought re-election, the highest percentage in a decade.
    • 14.9% of incumbents (877) did not run for re-election, meaning newcomers were guaranteed to win those seats.[4]
    • 394 Democratic state legislators (44.9% of the total) did not seek re-election.
    • 477 Republican state legislators (54.4% of the total) did not seek re-election.
    • Six minor-party or independent state legislators (0.7% of the total) did not seek re-election.

    Click [show] on the table header below for complete, state-by-state information on open seats and guaranteed newcomers.

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ In the analysis below, open Democratic seats refer to seats most recently held by a Democrat. Open Republican seats refer to seats most recently held by Republicans. Other open seats refer to seats most recently held by a third party or independent/nonpartisan legislator.
    2. ↑ This number does not include legislators who filed for re-election, advanced past the primary, and then withdrew or otherwise did not appear on the general election ballot.
    3. ↑ Senators in Virginia serve four-year terms. No elections for state Senate were held in 2021.
    4. ↑ This number includes legislators who did not file for re-election or who filed to run for re-election but withdrew before the primary. This number does not includes legislators who advanced past the primary and then withdrew or otherwise did not appear on the general election ballot.
    5. ↑ Arizona utilizes term limits: 4 terms (8 years) in the House, 4 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    6. ↑ Arkansas utilizes term limits: 16 year cumulative total, in either chamber or both
    7. ↑ California utilizes term limits: 12 years cumulative total, in either chamber or both
    8. ↑ Colorado utilizes term limits: 4 terms (8 years) in the House, 2 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    9. ↑ Florida utilizes term limits: 4 terms (8 years) in the House, 2 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    10. ↑ Maine utilizes term limits: 4 terms (8 years) in the House, 4 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    11. ↑ In 2020, one seat in Maine was left open by a third party or independent candidate reflected in the totals shown here.
    12. ↑ Michigan utilizes term limits: 3 terms (6 years) in the House, 2 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    13. ↑ Missouri utilizes term limits: 4 terms (8 years) in the House, 2 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    14. ↑ Montana utilizes term limits: 4 terms (8 years) in the House, 2 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    15. ↑ Nebraska utilizes term limits: 2 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    16. ↑ In 2020, one seat in Nebraska was left open by a third party or independent candidate reflected in the totals shown here.
    17. ↑ Nevada utilizes term limits: 6 terms (12 years) in the House, 3 terms (12 years) in the Senate
    18. ↑ Ohio utilizes term limits: 4 terms (8 years) in the House, 2 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    19. ↑ Oklahoma utilizes term limits: 12 years cumulative total, in either chamber or both
    20. ↑ South Dakota utilizes term limits: 4 terms (8 years) in the House, 4 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    21. ↑ In 2020, three seats in Vermont were left open by third party or independent candidates reflected in the totals shown here.
    22. ↑ In 2020, one seat in West Virginia was left open by a third party or independent candidate reflected in the totals shown here.
    23. ↑ In 2020, six seats were left open by third party or independent candidates reflected in the totals shown here.
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