Pennsylvania State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Pennsylvania Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | April 26, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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A total of 25 seats out of the 50 seats in the Pennsylvania State Senate were up for election in 2016. Republicans gained three seats in the November 2016 general election.
Pennsylvania state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the senate is up for election every two years.
Introduction
Elections for the Pennsylvania State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election was held on April 26, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was February 16, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Pennsylvania State Senate:
| Pennsylvania State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 19 | 16 | |
| Republican Party | 31 | 34 | |
| Total | 50 | 50 | |
Retired incumbents
Four incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Shirley Kitchen |  Democratic |
Senate District 3 |
| Lloyd Smucker |  Republican |
Senate District 13 |
| Pat Vance | Republican |
Senate District 31 |
| John Wozniak | Democratic |
Senate District 35 |
Note: District 9 was vacant, but Thomas Killion (R) was elected to the seat in a special election on April 26, 2016. The seat was last represented by Republican Senator Dominic Pileggi.
2016 election competitiveness
Pennsylvania saw a dip in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Pennsylvania performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Pennsylvania State Senate, there were 19 Democratic incumbents and 31 Republican incumbents. Three incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. No incumbents faced primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 84 Democratic incumbents and 119 Republican incumbents. Sixteen state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. Nine incumbents faced primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Pennsylvania can be found below.
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Pennsylvania Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | Lawrence Farnese (I)  |
No candidate | |
| 3 | Sharif Street |
No candidate | |
| 5 | John Sabatina, Jr.: 64,508 (I) |
Ross Feinberg: 31,644 | |
| 7 | Vincent Hughes (I) |
No candidate | |
| 9 | Martin Molloy: 67,011 | Thomas Killion: 70,764 (I) |
|
| 11 | Judith Schwank (I) |
No candidate | |
| 13 | Gregory Paulson: 48,476 | Scott Martin: 66,595 |
|
| 15 | Rob Teplitz: 58,591 (I) | John DiSanto: 62,774 |
|
| 17 | Daylin Leach: 88,827 (I) |
Brian Gondek: 50,010 | |
| 19 | Andy Dinniman: 75,615 (I) |
Jack London: 58,456 | |
| 21 | No candidate | Scott Hutchinson (I) |
|
| 23 | No candidate | Gene Yaw (I) |
|
| 25 | Jerri Buchanan: 25,686 | Joe Scarnati: 76,416 (I) |
|
| 27 | No candidate | John Gordner (I) |
|
| 29 | No candidate | David Argall (I) |
|
| 31 | John Bosha: 38,478 | Mike Regan: 87,269 |
Kenneth Gehosky: 9,331 (Unaffiliated) |
| 33 | No candidate | Richard Alloway (I) |
|
| 35 | Ed Cernic Jr.: 41,349 | Wayne Langerholc: 68,397 |
|
| 37 | Edward Eichenlaub: 59,044 | Guy Reschenthaler: 90,987 (I) |
|
| 39 | No candidate | Kim Ward (I) |
|
| 41 | Tony DeLoreto: 30,739 | Don White: 76,843 (I) |
Stanley Buggey: 4,701 (USA Minutemen) |
| 43 | Jay Costa (I) |
No candidate | |
| 45 | James Brewster (I) |
No candidate | |
| 47 | No candidate | Elder Vogel (I) |
|
| 49 | Sean Wiley: 50,356 (I) | Daniel Laughlin: 57,790 |
|
Notes:
| |||
Primary election
| 2016 Pennsylvania Senate primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Democrat
|
Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | Lawrence Farnese: 37,647 (I) John Morley: 13,049 |
No candidate | |
| 3 | Sharif Street |
No candidate | |
| 5 | John Sabatina, Jr.: 17,449 (I) Kevin Boyle: 16,757 |
Ross Feinberg |
|
| 7 | Vincent Hughes (I) |
No candidate | |
| 9 | Martin Molloy |
Thomas Killion |
|
| 11 | Judith Schwank (I) |
No candidate | |
| 13 | Gregory Paulson |
Scott Martin: 17,142 Ethan Demme 4,977 Neal Rice: 12,654 |
|
| 15 | Rob Teplitz: 19,076 (I) Alvin Q. Taylor: 6,037 |
John DiSanto: 19,283 Andrew Lewis: 18,748 |
|
| 17 | Daylin Leach (I) |
Brian Gondek |
|
| 19 | Andy Dinniman (I) |
Jack London |
|
| 21 | No candidate | Scott Hutchinson (I) |
|
| 23 | No candidate | Gene Yaw (I) |
|
| 25 | No candidate | Joe Scarnati (I) |
|
| 27 | No candidate | John Gordner (I) |
|
| 29 | No candidate | David Argall (I) |
|
| 31 | No candidate | Jon Ritchie: 15,751 Brice Arndt: 7,204 Scott Harper: 1,460 Mike Regan: 26,767 |
|
| 33 | No candidate | Richard Alloway (I) |
|
| 35 | Gerald Carnicella: 9,900 John Wozniak: 17,599 (I) |
Wayne Langerholc: 17,632 Dwight Winck: 14,233 |
|
| 37 | Edward Eichenlaub |
Guy Reschenthaler (I) |
|
| 39 | No candidate | Kim Ward (I) |
|
| 41 | Tony DeLoreto |
Don White (I) |
|
| 43 | Jay Costa (I) |
No candidate | |
| 45 | James Brewster (I) |
No candidate | |
| 47 | No candidate | Elder Vogel (I) |
|
| 49 | Sean Wiley (I) |
Daniel Laughlin |
|
Notes:
| |||
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Pennsylvania State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 25 races in the Pennsylvania State Senate in 2016, 12 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 23 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[2]
| Democratic candidates in the Pennsylvania State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won nine races. In the three races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 25 percent. Republicans won 16 races in 2016. In the nine races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 22.4 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Three of the 12 contested races in 2016—25 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Two races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Republicans won all three races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Pennsylvania State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 9 R 2.7 percent District 15 R 3.5 percent District 49 R 6.9 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Pennsylvania State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 19 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the seven winning Pennsylvania State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 27.1 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Pennsylvania State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. 11 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the four races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 28.7 percent. Eight Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the three races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 25 percent. |
Pennsylvania State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[3] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[3] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 9 25.0 percent 8 25.0 percent 5 6 66.7 percent Republican 16 22.4 percent 11 28.7 percent 7 7 43.8 percent Total 25 23.0 percent 19 27.1 percent 12 13 52.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Pennsylvania State Senate districts in 2016.
| Pennsylvania State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | D | Unopposed |
| District 3 | D | Unopposed |
| District 5 | D | 34.2 percent |
| District 7 | D | Unopposed |
| District 9 | R | 2.7 percent |
| District 11 | D | Unopposed |
| District 13 | R | 15.8 percent |
| District 15 | R | 3.5 percent |
| District 17 | D | 28.0 percent |
| District 19 | D | 12.8 percent |
| District 21 | R | Unopposed |
| District 23 | R | Unopposed |
| District 25 | R | 49.7 percent |
| District 27 | R | Unopposed |
| District 29 | R | Unopposed |
| District 31 | R | 36.1 percent |
| District 33 | R | Unopposed |
| District 35 | R | 24.7 percent |
| District 37 | R | 21.3 percent |
| District 39 | R | Unopposed |
| District 41 | R | 41.1 percent |
| District 43 | D | Unopposed |
| District 45 | D | Unopposed |
| District 47 | R | Unopposed |
| District 49 | R | 6.9 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Pennsylvania elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Pennsylvania in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description |
| February 16, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day to file nomination petitions for the primary election |
| March 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | Sixth Tuesday pre-primary report due |
| April 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second Friday pre-primary report due |
| April 26, 2016 | Election date | Primary election |
| May 26, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day post-primary report due |
| August 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day to file nomination petitions for the general election |
| September 27, 2016 | Campaign finance | Sixth Tuesday pre-general report due |
| October 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second Friday pre-general report due |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election |
| December 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day post-general report due |
| January 31, 2017 | Campaign finance | 2016 annual report due |
| Source: Pennsylvania Department of State, "2016 Election Calendar," accessed January 11, 2016 | ||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 13 of the 25 districts up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of six Democrats and 7 Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 12 (48.0%) of the 25 districts up for election.
Primary challenges
Four incumbents faced primary competition on April 26. Three incumbents (as of the primary election) did not seek re-election, one seat is vacant and another 17 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Four incumbents did not run for re-election, while 21 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, two Republicans and two Democrats, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Pennsylvania's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Pennsylvania General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 11.4% | 20.8% | 45.6% | 25.9 | 32 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Pennsylvania in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[4]
| Pennsylvania State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 56 | $26,495,859 |
| 2012 | 55 | $31,094,665 |
| 2010 | 53 | $15,465,834 |
| 2008 | 65 | $30,928,634 |
| 2006 | 63 | $19,461,558 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Pennsylvania, at $473,140 per candidate, is ranked three of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[4][5]
Qualifications
Under Article II of the Pennsylvania Constitution, Senators shall be at least 25 years of age and Representatives 21 years of age. They shall have been citizens and inhabitants of their respective districts one year next before their election (unless absent on the public business of the United States or of this State) and shall reside in their respective districts during their terms of service.
See also
External links
- Pennsylvania Department of State - Candidate Information
- Pennsylvania Department of State - Primary election results
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Pennsylvania," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
