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Showing posts with label privatisation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label privatisation. Show all posts

Monday, March 21, 2022

History of disinvestment in India

by Sudipto Banerjee, Renuka Sane, Srishti Sharma and Karthik Suresh.

Disinvestment of public sector enterprises has been an important part of Indian economic policy since the 1990s. Research in this field has been constrained by a lack of foundations of facts. There is limited information on policy positions, policy actions, as well controversies around policy actions. For example, Baijal (2008) provides a history of early disinvestment decisions in India; Banerjee Sane and Sharma (2020) provide information on the more recent methods adopted for disinvestment; Banerjee, Moharir and Sane (2020) document disinvestments undertaken to meet the minimum public shareholding rule in India.

In a new working paper, History of disinvestment in India: 1991-2020, we contribute to the literature by documenting the history of disinvestment of Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs) in India between March 1991 to December 2020. The paper is a collection of facts on:

  1. The policy position of governments across the years
  2. The policy processes adopted by governments on selection of enterprises for disinvestment
  3. The difficulties encountered in various transactions on (i) methods of valuation, (ii) legal disputes challenging the transactions, (iii) adverse audit remarks of the CAG, and (iv) labour unrest.
  4. Targets for disinvestment and amounts raised
  5. The different methods of disinvestment, especially those used in recent years such as compulsory buybacks, Offer for sale through the stock exchange (OFS-SE), CPSE to CPSE sales, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), and public offers.

We found it difficult to achieve this level of clarity on the facts, and hope that this helps many others approach the field with better foundations on facts.

References

Baijal, P. (2008), Disinvestment In India: I Lose and You Gain, Pearson; 1st edition.

Banerjee S., Moharir, S., and Sane R. (2020), The problem of minimum public shareholding in public sector enterprises , The Leap Blog, 18 November 2020.

Banerjee S., Sane R. and Sharma, S. (2020), The five paths of disinvestment in India , The Leap Blog, 7 July 2020.

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

The problem of minimum public shareholding in public sector enterprises

by Sudipto Banerjee, Sarang Moharir, Renuka Sane.

In 2009-10, the government of India increased the minimum public shareholding (MPS) threshold for listed companies from 10% to 25%. The government's rationale for the MPS is that a minimum public float of shares addresses secondary market imperfections like concentration of shares and price manipulation. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has specified several methods that listed firms can use to expedite their MPS compliance. One of the methods is the offer for sale of shares through the stock exchange (OFS-SE). This was introduced in 2012 to facilitate compliance in a broad-based and transparent manner. Prior to the OFS-SE, the government divested shares through OFS by issuing a prospectus. This was a cumbersome and time-consuming process. Since 2012, the government has used the OFS-SE method to undertake disinvestment of CPSEs to meet the MPS threshold.

In 2010, when the Securities Contract (Regulations) Rules were amended [Rule 19A(1)] to increase the MPS threshold from 10% to 25%, listed Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs) were exempted. The government withdrew the exemption in 2014, and set a deadline of August 2017 for compliance with the MPS. This was extended by a year to 2018 and again by two years to 2020. Recently, listed CPSEs got another extension of one year till August 2021. Despite the extensions, 37 CPSEs out of the total 77 listed CPSEs had not met the MPS requirement as on December 31, 2019.

As we approach the August 2021 deadline, we ask if disinvestments through the OFS-SE route have achieved the 25% MPS target. This question is relevant for all disinvestments. We, however, focus on the one's done through OFS-SE as this route was designed to meet the MPS threshold. This study is useful for two reasons. First, it gives us a sense of how much more disinvestment the government has to undertake to meet the MPS. Second, the government's record on meeting the MPS threshold for CPSEs sends a strong signal of its own commitment to the MPS.

Methodology

We sourced transaction data from BSEPSU. We only consider CPSEs where at least 5% stake was divested through the OFS-SE route between 2012 and 2019. This gives us a sample of 22 CPSEs (with 31 transactions) out of the total 77 CPSEs.

Since OFS-SE is a secondary market transaction, details like name of the purchaser, the number of shares purchased and the final sales price are not available in the public domain. Therefore, we studied each annual report issued in the year of the OFS-SE transaction to document the change in the shareholding pattern of the top ten shareholders. Further, we used these changes to identify the possible purchaser of shares. For example, 5% stake of Power Finance Corporation (PFC) was divested in 2015; LIC's shareholding in PFC increased from 4.81% to 9.08% in the same year. We assume that LIC purchased a stake in the OFS-SE transaction of PFC in 2015.

Results: other CPSEs as shareholders

Table 1 shows the shareholding of CPSEs that had undergone OFS-SE as of March 2019. Public shareholding contains CPSE shareholding (column 4) i.e., shares held by other CPSEs in these companies. Since CPSEs are themselves government owned, it is useful to evaluate public shareholding after removing their holdings. As an example, National Fertilizers Ltd. has a public shareholding of 25.29% and meets the MPS requirement of 25%. The following CPSEs are listed under the public shareholding category of National Fertilizers Ltd., i.e. LIC (11.31%), NIA (1.76%), GIC (1.48%), Canara Bank (0.69%), OIC (0.29%). The total share of these firms (15.53%) is deducted from the public share of National Fertilizers (25.29%). Public shareholding of National Fertilizers at 9.76% does not meet the MPS threshold. When the share of CPSEs is excluded from the public shareholding category, 13 out of the 22 CPSEs failed to meet the MPS requirement as of March 2019.

Table 1: Shareholding of CPSEs that have undergone OFS-SE (March 2019)
Company Promoters’ share-holding Public share-holding Shareholding of CPSEs (included within public shareholding) Whether MPS requirement is met when share of CPSE is not considered?
BHARAT ELECTRONICS LTD. 55.93% 44.07% LIC (3.61%) Yes
COAL INDIA LTD. 69.26% 30.74% LIC (10.94%), LIFE INSURANCE CORPORATION OF INDIA P & GS FUND (2.18%) No
CONTAINER CORP. OF INDIA LTD. 54.80% 45.20% LIC (3.08%) Yes
ENGINEERS INDIA LTD. 52.00% 48.00% LIC (4%) Yes
HINDUSTAN COPPER LTD. 76.05% 23.95% LIC (12.14%) No
INDIAN OIL CORP. LTD. 51.50% 48.50% ONGC (14.20%), LIC (6.51%), OIL (5.16%), IOC SHARES TRUST (2.48%) No
INDIA TOURISM DEVELOPMENT CORP. LTD. 87.03% 12.97% LIC (3.22%), NIC (0.13%) No
MMTC LTD. 89.93% 10.07% LIC (3.39%), UIC (0.24%), GIC (0.18%), NIA (0.11%) No
MOIL LTD. 65.69% 34.31% LIC NEW ENDOWMENT PLUS BALANCED FUND (7.12%), UIC (1.05%), NIA (0.35%), OIC (0.46%) Yes
NATIONAL ALUMINIUM CO. LTD. 52.00% 48.00% LIC (8.2%), NIC (0.61%) Yes
NATIONAL FERTILIZERS LTD. 74.71% 25.29% LIC (11.31%), NIA (1.76%), GIC (1.48%), CANARA BANK (0.69%), OIC (0.29%) No
NBCC (INDIA) LTD. 65.93% 34.07% LIFE INSURANCE CORPORATION OF INDIA P & GS FUND (6.55%), SBI(0.48%) Yes
NHPC LTD. 73.33% 26.67% LIC (7.31%), PFCL (2.43%), REC (1.75%) No
NLC INDIA LTD. 80.85% 19.15% LIC (3.34%), UTI (0.83%), NIA (0.47%) No
NMDC LTD. 72.28% 27.72% LIC (12.9%), LIC NEW ENDOWMENT PLUS BALANCED FUND (2.03%), SBI (0.38%), NIA (0.34%) No
NTPC LTD. 54.50% 45.50% LIC JEEVAN PLUS NON UNIT FUND (11.51%) Yes
OIL INDIA LTD. 59.57% 40.43% LIFE INSURANCE CORPORATION OF INDIA P & GS FUND (12.19%), IOCL (4.71%), HPCL (2.47%), BPCL (2.47%) No
OIL & NATURAL GAS CORP. LTD. 62.98% 37.02% Yes
RASHTRIYA CHEMICALS AND FERTILIZERS LTD. 75.00% 25.00% LIC (2.07%), NIA (0.60%) No
REC LTD. 52.63% 47.37% LIC (2.30%), CPSE ETF (3.57%) Yes
STATE TRADING CORP.OF INDIA LTD. 90.00% 10.00% LIC (0.91%), NIA (0.89%), OIC (0.07%) No
STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA LTD. 75.00% 25.00% LIC (9.60%), LIC MARKET PLUS 1 GROWTH FUND (1.24%), LIFE INSURANCE CORPORATION OF INDIA P & GS FUND (0.63%) No

Source: Company Annual reports

Results: LIC as shareholder

Table 2 indicates an increase in shareholding of LIC (whose 100% shares are held by the government) in the CPSEs post OFS-SE transactions. As an example, Hindustan Copper went through disinvestment in FY16 and FY17. This lead to a decrease in government shareholding from 89.95% in 2016 to 76.05% in 2017, at the end of the two transactions. Shares of LIC increased from 5.27% at the beginning of FY16 to 12.14% in FY18. Similarly, National Fertilizers was disinvested in FY17, where the government's share decreased from 92.5% to 80%. Shares held by LIC in the company had increased from 4.16% to 11.32% in FY18.

Table 2: OFS-SE transactions and purchases by LIC
Name of entity Year Stake divested LIC's share before disinvestment LIC's share post disinvestment
NMDC FY12 10% 5% 5.54%
RASHTRIYA CHEMICALS AND FERTILIZERS LTD. FY13 12.5% 0.87% 6.45%
NTPC FY13 9.5% 5.91% 7.66%
NALCO FY13 6.09% 3.25% 6.02%
SAIL FY14 5% 6.61% 10.11%
COAL INDIA LTD. FY15 10% 2.10% 7.24%
DREDGING CORP. OF INDIA LTD. FY15 5% 2.99% 5.86%
POWER FINANCE CORP. LTD. FY15 5% 4.81% 9.08%
NHPC FY16 11.36% 3.11% 8.83%
HINDUSTAN COPPER LTD. FY16 7% 5.27% 10.70%
CONTAINER CORP. OF INDIA LTD. FY16 5% 1.03% 3.05%
NBCC FY16 15% 0% 8.11%
HINDUSTAN COPPER LTD. FY17 6.83% 11.14% 14.25%
NATIONAL FERTILIZERS LTD. FY17 15% 4.16% 11.32%
MOIL FY17 10% 3.84% 7.11%
COAL INDIA LTD. FY18 5.19% 8.97% 10.94%

Source: Annual reports

In the sample of 31 transactions concerning the 22 CPSEs selected for our study, the Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) increased its holding in 16 transactions. For six transactions, the top ten shareholders' names were not disclosed in the annual reports. LIC's equity did not change in the remaining nine transactions.

Conclusion

Out of the total 77 NSE-listed CPSEs, 37 CPSEs had not met the MPS threshold as on December 31, 2019. The government will have to do a lot more to achieve full compliance with the MPS by August 2021. Out of the 22 CPSEs that went through disinvestment by the OFS-SE route, 13 CPSEs do not meet the MPS once we exclude the share of CPSEs. LIC purchased equity in more than 50% of CPSEs in our sample.

One of objectives of disinvestment is to promote public ownership of CPSEs. This also provides an opportunity to citizens to participate in the wealth of CPSEs. The MPS also seeks to widen ownership in listed companies. Under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Rules and SEBI (Issue of Capital and Listing Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, shareholding of CPSEs and LIC may be considered as public, but their inclusion does not align with the goals of either disinvestment or the MPS. This question also assumes relevance given CAG's recent observation (Para 1.3.2) that disinvestment from one public sector firm to another 'did not change' stake of the government in the disinvested CPSEs. Disinvestment which truly widens CPSE ownership to individuals and institutions outside of the government should be an important goal for policy.


The authors are researchers at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy. The authors would like to thank Karthik Suresh and Srishti Sharma for useful discussions.

Tuesday, July 07, 2020

The five paths of disinvestment in India

by Sudipto Banerjee, Renuka Sane and Srishti Sharma.

Privatisation of Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs) in India has typically been done in one of the following ways: in the early years government equity was sold through an auction to financial investors, while since 2004, the popular method has been public offer. Strategic sales, where control of the public sector is transferred to private entities have been very few, concentrated in the 1999-2004 period. As a result, sale of government shareholding in India is referred to as disinvestment and not privatisation.

In recent years the methods used for disinvestment include: a) Public offer, b) Buybacks, c) Sale to employees, d) Exchange traded funds (ETFs), and e) CPSE to CPSE sale. Buybacks and ETFs are new ways of divesting minority stake. As we study the trajectory of disinvestment in India, it is important to understand the relative magnitudes involved in each transaction. There are two metrics that are important - first, the amount of resources raised and second, the change in government equity through these methods. The latter is especially important as disinvestment has great potential to improve economic efficiency by reducing government control. By focusing only on resources raised as an outcome, we end up ignoring the more important economic rationale for undertaking disinvestment.

In this article, we describe the methods adopted for disinvestment of CPSEs since FY2015. We use the BSEPSU disinvestment database and individual annual reports of firms to arrive at the magnitudes of disinvestment. We use two measures:

  • Disinvestment proceeds and shares sold. The proceeds are the amount realised through the sale process. Shares sold is the ratio of the number of government shares sold by the total equity of the firm.
  • Change in government equity. This is the difference between the share of government in total equity of the firm before and after the disinvestment transaction.

Disinvestment methods

Table 1 provides an overview of disinvestment by the government in the last 6 years. It shows the number of transactions, the number of CPSEs, the disinvestment proceeds, % of total shares sold and the change in government equity post the transaction.


Table 1: Disinvestment from FY15 to FY20
Methods of disinvestment Number of
transactions
Number of CPSEs
Disinvestment proceeds (INR million)
Average % of
shares sold
Average change in % of govt equity post
disinvestment
1 PUBLIC OFFER 37 32 984,054 10 10
2 BUYBACK 36 23 403,549 8.34 0.64
3 SALE TO EMPLOYEES 21 15 9,379 0.138 0.138
4 EXCHANGE TRADED FUND* 10 18 989,490 1.09# 1.09#
5 CPSE TO CPSE SALE 8 8 667,119 77.15 77.15
Source: BSEPSU database and authors' calculation based on annual reports

* There were a total of 10 tranches of ETFs in this period. Each tranche contains a basket of firms. If the disinvestment in each firm that was part of an ETF tranche is considered separately then we would have 126 ETF transactions instead of 10. The average change in government equity for ETFs is therefore calculated across these 126 transactions, and not the 10 tranches

The government of India disinvested its stake in 50 CPSEs and raised a total of INR 3,053 billion using five methods: public offer, buy back, CPSE to CPSE sale, exchange traded funds and sale to employees. On an average, the government sold 7.28% of total shares and the average reduction in government equity has been around 5.84%. The sum total of the number of CPSEs in column 2 does not match with the total number of 50 unique CPSEs because some CPSEs adopted multiple methods across years. Public offer was the most used method with 32 firms and 37 transactions. The second most popular method was buyback with 36 transactions. The maximum revenue was raised through ETFs followed by public offer. The maximum share of sales and change in government equity was through CPSE to CPSE transfers. There is some missing data on % shares sold for buyback and ETF transactions as annual reports for FY20 is not published yet (indicated by #).

Figure 1 below shows the yearly distribution of amount raised and % reduction in equity across various methods from FY15 to FY20. The significant increase in proceeds in FY18 and FY19 is driven by ETFs and CPSE to CPSE sales. Besides CPSE to CPSE sales, the average % reduction in government equity remained low and constant across all years. We next study the five methods in detail and understand the extent of disinvestment in each method.


Public offer

Public offer has been the most common method of disinvestment. Since FY 2015, there have been 37 public offer transactions including 21 offer for sale (OFS) transactions. The public offer route is considered as a transparent way of offloading government shares and aims to encourage public participation. In several public offer transactions, the Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), whose shares are fully owned by the central government, has bought majority of the shares. Some of these transactions include:

  1. In 2014, LIC bought 5.94% stake in Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) for INR 26,850 million, increasing its stake in BHEL to 14.99%.
  2. In 2015, LIC bought shares worth INR 70,000 million INR in the public offer of Coal India Ltd. This was equivalent to one-third of the public offer.
  3. In the same year, it bought nearly 86% of the shares on offer of the Indian Oil Corporation paying over INR 80,000 million.
  4. In 2016, LIC bought 59% of shares offered in NTPC stake sale worth $730 million. Thus, LIC spent approximately INR 29,000 million.
  5. In 2017, LIC bought shares worth around INR 80,000 million in the disinvestment of General Insurance Corporation of India and again bought shares worth INR 65,000 million in the IPO of New India Assurance Company.
  6. In March 2018, LIC subscribed 70% of shares in the IPO of Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, paying INR 29000 million.
  7. Between November 22, 2019 and February 27, 2020, LIC acquired 59.49 lakh shares worth INR 1,770 million, or 2.38 % stake, in RITES though an offer-for-sale (OFS).

LIC spent roughly INR 381,620 million on the transactions listed above. This constitutes 38.7% of the disinvestment proceeds raised through the public offer method in the period of our study.

Buyback

Buyback is a process where a company purchases its shares from its existing shareholders. This helps a company to restructure capital and increase the underlying value of shares. The company is required to extinguish the bought back shares. The government has used buyback in the past as a method of disinvestment. However in 2016, buyback was made compulsory for CPSEs who met the prescribed threshold of net worth and cash reserves.

A company is under an obligation to provide a buyback offer to all existing shareholders. In such a case, reduction in the total equity is higher than the reduction in government shares which may lead to an increase in % of government equity post buyback. However, if a CPSE is wholly owned by the government, total number of shares will be reduced (extinguished) by the same number of shares bought back. Hence, there will be no change in % of equity held by the government post buyback.

Table 2 presents the impact of buyback transactions on government shareholding. Since 2015, 23 CPSEs have bought back shares from the government raising INR 403,549 million. It is important to note that % shares sold for three buyback transactions in FY20 is unavailable since annual report for the year is not published yet (indicated by *). Out of total 36 buyback transactions, 9 transactions led to an increase in government equity. In 11 transactions, where CPSE was wholly owned by the government, there was no change in government holding. The remaining 16 transactions recorded an average reduction of 1.19% in government equity. In column (2) the count of individual number of CPSEs do not match with the total number of CPSEs because same 8 CPSEs recorded increase in equity in one year while decrease in another (indicated by **).


Table 2: Summary of buyback transactions
Transaction type Number of transactions No. of CPSEs Total disinvestment proceeds(INR million) Average % of shares sold Average change in % of govt equity post buyback
Reduction in government holding 16 12 244,947 7.63 (1.19)
Increase in government holding 9 9 83590.7 2.31 0.16
No change in government holding 11 7 75,011 15.55* 0
Total 36 23** 40,3549 8.34 (0.64)
Source : Authors' calculation based on annual reports

Sale to employees

As part of its disinvestment strategy, the government has often reserved a certain quantity of its shares for offer to the CPSE employees. Usually these shares are offered at a discount. Such transactions are expected to incentivise the employees and create dispersed shareholding. In the last six years, there have been 21 such transactions across 15 firms from which the government raised a total of INR 9,379 million. On an average, the % of shares sold to the employees is around 0.14%. Almost half of the proceeds from this method comes from two transactions in FY17 by Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. and NTPC Ltd. In May 2016, government sold 0.29% of the total shares of Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. to its employees raising INR 2,624 million. Pursuant to the 5% OFS stake in February 2016, NTPC offered to sell 2.06 crores equity shares of government to the employees at a discount rate of 5%. 85% of the shares were subscribed by around 10,800 eligible employees and government raised approximately INR 2,037 million.

Exchange traded funds (ETFs)

ETF is a pool of stocks that reflects the composition of an index, like S&P BSE SENSEX. This method has been frequently used for disinvestment in the recent past, where the government sells shareholding in select CPSEs to a fund house which owns the ETF. The ETF fund manager first formulates the scheme and offers to the public for subscription by way of a new fund offer (NFO). The subscription proceeds are used to purchase the shares of constituent companies in similar composition and weights based on the underlying index. Shares are usually sold at a discount to the scheme and the fund manager in turn creates and allots units of the scheme, to the investors. Once the NFO closes, the units are listed on the exchanges.

The government has launched two ETFs, namely, CPSE ETF and Bharat-22 ETF. CPSE ETF was launched in 2014. It contains stock of 11 listed CPSEs and follows the NIFTY CPSE index. In 2017, Bharat-22 ETF was created. This comprises of 16 CPSEs, 3 public sector banks and 3 private company stocks held by Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India (SUUTI). The underlying index is the S&P Bharat 22 index. From FY15 to FY20, there were six tranches of CPSE ETF and four tranches of Bharat-22 ETF transactions which raised INR 989,490 million.

Table 3 lists each ETF tranche from FY15 to FY20 and provides details on allotment date, number of constituent CPSEs, amount raised by government and average reduction in % of government equity post each tranche. It is important to note that the average % reduction in government equity for three ETF transactions in FY20 is unavailable since annual report for the year is not published yet (indicated by *NA).


Table 3: Summary of ETF tranches from FY15 to FY20
ETF Name ETF tranche No. of constituent CPSEs Allotment date of ETF units Average % reduction in government equity Amount realised (in INR million)
CPSE ETF FURTHER FUND OFFER 1 10 28/01/2017 0.98 59999.9
CPSE ETF FURTHER FUND OFFER 2 10 25/03/2017 0.39 24999.9
CPSE ETF FURTHER FUND OFFER 3 11 07/12/2018 2.88 170000
CPSE ETF FURTHER FUND OFFER 4 11 29/03/2019 1.22 93500.7
CPSE ETF FURTHER FUND OFFER 5 10 26/07/2019 NA* 100003.9
CPSE ETF FURTHER FUND OFFER 6 10 07/02/2020 NA* 165000
BHARAT 22-ETF NEW FUND OFFER 16 24/11/2017 0.93 145000
BHARAT 22-ETF FURTHER FUND OFFER 1 16 29/06/2018 0.58 83252.6
BHARAT 22-ETF TAP OFFER 16 22/02/2019 0.92 104045.9
BHARAT 22-ETF FURTHER FUND OFFER 2 16 10/10/2019 NA* 43688
Source : Author's calculation based on annual reports

While aggregate proceeds from ETF may have been high, the average reduction in government equity has been low.

CPSE to CPSE sale

Under this method, government transfers its shares in one CPSE to another CPSE. There have been eight such transactions in the last six years which raised a total of approximately INR 667,119 million. The details of each of the transaction is given in table 4. Except REC Limited, the entire government shareholding was transferred to another CPSE. In case of REC Limited, government still holds 0.25% shares. Post these sales, the firms became subsidiaries of the buyer CPSE firms, but continue to remain government companies as defined under section 2(45) of the Companies Act, 2013.


Table 4: CPSE to CPSE sales from FY15 to FY20
CPSE Date of transaction Buyer's Name % of shares sold Amount realised (in INR million)
HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORPN. LTD. 31/01/2018 OIL & NATURAL GAS CORP.LTD. 51.11 369,150
H S C C (INDIA) LTD. 06/11/2018 NBCC (INDIA) LTD. 100 2,850
DREDGING CORPN. OF INDIA LTD. 09/03/2019 CONSORTIUM OF FOUR PORTS 73.47 10,491
R E C LTD. 28/03/2019 POWER FINANCE CORP.LTD. 52.63 145,000
KAMARAJAR PORT LTD. 27/03/2020 CHENNAI PORT TRUST 66.67 23,830
NORTH EASTERN ELECTRIC POWER CORPN. LTD. 27/03/2020 NTPC LTD. 100 40,000
T H D C INDIA LTD. 27/03/2020 NTPC LTD. 74.49 750,00
NATIONAL PROJECTS CONSTRUCTION CORPN. LTD. 26/04/2020 WAPCOS LTD. 98.89 798
Source : BSEPSU disinvestment database

The CPSE to CPSE sale transactions constituted around 22% of total disinvestment proceeds in the last six years. While technically, the government may have divested 77% shareholding in these CPSEs (as shown in Table 1), it did not bring any change in government ownership of these firms.

Conclusion

There has been a huge increase in disinvestment proceeds in the recent years. However, reduction in government equity in the CPSEs has not witnessed much growth. About 5.19% of disinvestment proceeds came from buyback transactions that led to an increase (or no change) in government equity and 21.8% came from CPSE to CPSE sale transactions that led to no change in government ownership. While 32.2% of proceeds came from public offer, almost 39% of these were actually purchased by LIC. Thus, purchases by LIC accounted for 12.49% of the total proceeds which also imply no change in government ownership. Finally, around 32.4% came from ETFs which, on an average reduced government equity by 1.09%. These considerations become central issues for any research on disinvestment and its impact.


The authors are researchers at NIPFP. We thank Karthik Suresh and Sarang Moharir for useful comments.

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Applicability of the IBC to public sector enterprises: The case of Hindustan Antibiotics Ltd

by Sudipto Banerjee, Renuka Sane and Karthik Suresh.

Since the enactment of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) in 2016, the National Companies Law Tribunal (NCLT) has been admitting insolvency cases against public sector enterprises (for example, the Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Co. Ltd., the Northern Power Distribution Co. Ltd.). A final resolution order was passed in the case of Burn Standard and Co. Ltd. while liquidation proceedings were ordered in the case of Hindustan Paper Co.Ltd. This suggests that the IBC was being used for resolving defaults by public sector enterprises (PSEs).

The case of Hindustan Antibiotics Ltd. (HAL) has led to uncertainty regarding the applicability of the IBC to PSEs. In this case, the NCLT could not arrive at a decision on the applicability of the IBC to HAL. The dispute was referred to a third member of the NCLT. In the meanwhile, HAL filed a writ petition before the Bombay High Court challenging the constitutional validity of the IBC insofar as it applies to government companies, which was admitted by the Court. This, in effect, has stayed the proceedings before the NCLT. The High Court will now decide on the question of whether the IBC applies to government companies.

This article revisits the dispute and examines the position of PSEs within the ambit of the IBC. It argues that creditors of PSEs (or PSEs themselves) should be able to access the IBC. Removing PSEs from the IBC's purview may lead to delays in resolution, and may close an important route which the government could use for disinvestment.

The dispute

Hindustan Antibiotics Ltd. (HAL) is a central PSE in the business of supplying affordable drugs and antibiotics. The company has been incurring losses since 1993-94. In March 1997, HAL was declared a sick company and placed under the Board for Industrial and Financial Reconstruction (BIFR) which approved a restructuring package in June 2007. However, the company's financial situation continued to deteriorate. In December 2016, the Union Cabinet stated that it will look at options for conducting a strategic sale of HAL, dispose of the surplus land and structure a voluntary retirement scheme (VRS) for its employees. As of January 2020, the strategic sale has not taken place. The company has been unable to pay the salaries of its employees on time.

As a consequence, employees of HAL have filed cases against the company for non payment of salaries and other dues before various courts. Three public sector banks have sent recovery notices to the company under the Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Securities Interest Act, 2002 (SARFAESI Act). Employees have also filed cases before the Controlling Authority under the Payment of Gratuity Act, 1972 for non payment of dues. Three operational creditors including Mr. Harish Pinge, an employee of HAL, filed cases under the IBC before the NCLT.

The impugned order of the NCLT is concerned with the petition filed by Harish Pinge. The company acknowledged the portion of Mr. Pinge's retirement dues but was unable to pay due to its financial condition. When Mr. Pinge approached the NCLT, the company took the view that IBC does not contemplate handling the insolvency resolution process of PSEs and hence the petition was not maintainable.

The NCLT's order

The judicial member took the view that HAL was a central PSE and thus an 'instrumentality of the state'. He held that even if the company is loss-making and is unable to pay its dues, it cannot be closed. This is because it would be unconstitutional for a tribunal to pass an order to close a PSE which is an instrument of the state itself. The relevant paragraph is extracted as follows:.

In view of the above findings, I am of the considered view that CIRP process cannot be initiated against an instrumentality of the state. To say these words I have made an attempt to lift the corporate veil of the Corporate Debtor to see who is behind the same and I found that it is none other than Govt. of India, in the name of President of India. Initiating CIRP process against the Corporate Debtor practically amounts to initiating CIRP process against the Govt. of India which is impermissible under the Constitution/Law. The law makers while enacting the IBC appears to have not envisaged such a situation otherwise they would have exempted Govt. Companies from the CIRP process as the application of the Code on the said Govt. Companies would create a chaos and defeat the very intent for which IBC is brought into existence. At the same time there is also another way looking at it and that is, there is no reason even to expressly exempt the Govt. Companies because it is an instrumentality of the state and de-horsing the corporate character and independent entity, there is everything to say that the Govt. Companies are an instrumentality of the state or rather we can say that there an alter ego of the state itself and the result of the same is that the IBC cannot interfere with the state owned undertakings. In view of the above the point No. (i) and (ii) are answered against the Petitioner as the Petitioner can have an alternate remedy in a civil court or by way of proceeding under Article 226 or 32 of the Constitution of India in an appropriate forum if so advised. (emphasis added)

The technical member held that all PSEs are liable to be subject to the CIRP as prescribed in the IBC in case of a default. He was of the view that PSEs are instruments of the state but the instrumentality argument cannot be used to negate the statutory right of a reditor. Only financial services providers are explicitly excluded from the definition of 'corporate debtor'. He observed that there are lacunae in the government's own process for restructuring PSEs after the closure of Bureau for Reconstruction of Public Sector Enterprises (BRPSE) in 2015 and suggested that adoption of the IBC process is in the best interest of the corporate debtor.

Since the members had disagreed with each other, the President of the NCLT referred the case to a third member in accordance with the Companies Act, 2013. While the proceedings were pending before the NCLT, the company filed a writ petition before the Bombay High Court.

Proceedings before the Bombay High Court

At the Bombay High Court, the petitioner argued that the provisions regarding the definition of 'corporate debtor', 'person' and the provisions which give financial and operational creditors the right to approach the NCLT in case of default are in direct conflict with a) the statutory provisions of Companies Act, 2013 and b) Article 14 of the Constitution of India as far as 'government companies' are concerned.

The High Court held that the NCLT is not the proper forum for deciding on questions of constitutionality. The court referred to the Supreme Court's decision in Hindustan Construction Co. Ltd. v. Union of India where it has was held that that statutory bodies (like National Highway Authority of India) are not limited in liability and are hence not covered in either the definition of 'corporate person' or 'person' under the IBC. The Bombay High Court said that it would look at whether this decision of the Supreme Court has any bearing on government companies as well. Consequently, it imposed a stay on the proceedings before the NCLT.

In the subsequent paragraphs we discuss why the IBC should be applied to government companies as well.

The IBC does not exclude PSEs

The HAL case seems to depend on the interpretation of 'corporate debtor'. Under the provisions of the IBC, 'corporate debtor' means a corporate person who owes a debt to any person. The definition of 'person' includes a company. Most PSEs are registered as government companies under the Companies Act, 2013 and are generally subject to its provisions and rules.

A similar argument was made by the solicitor general in the context of Hindustan Construction Co. Ltd. v. Union of Indiasupra). He admitted (para 58) that government companies are covered in the definition of 'corporate person' under section 3(7) of the IBC. The court did not make a clear pronouncement on this specific issue since the facts of the case were not primarily concerned with it. But we can presume that the solicitor general, being the statutory lawyer of the Union government, has stated the view of the government on the law.

There are specific provisions in the Companies Act, 2013 which exempt government companies from certain requirements. It is a settled principle of statutory interpretation that legislature speaks its mind by use of correct expression and unless there is ambiguity in law, the law has to be read in its literal sense. The literal reading of the provisions does not indicate exemption of PSEs from IBC.

Inference can also be drawn from the earlier legislation like Sick Industrial Companies (Special Provisions) Act, 1985 (SICA) where it was expressly mentioned that the definition of company did not include a government company. This was removed by an amendment in 1993. Further, the IBC substituted the provisions on revival of sick industrial companies and winding up given under the Companies Act, 2013.

The importance of the IBC to PSEs

There are several reasons that the case before the High Court is extremely important.

The IBC is a time bound process which helps preserves the value of the firm and improves recovery. The World Bank's Ease of Doing Business survey reflects this change --- the recovery rate per dollar has increased from 28.6 cents per dollar to 71.6 cents per dollar since the IBC was brought into force. The exclusion of PSEs from this process will be expensive to its creditors, which are often public sector banks. For instance, the report of the Lok Sabha Committee on Public Undertakings observed that for 2016-17, the losses of the top three loss making central PSEs i.e. Air India, BSNL and MTNL accounted for 55.66% of total losses among central PSEs. The annual reports of BSNL (2015-16), MTNL (2018-19) and Air India (2018-19) show that all of their term loans are from public sector banks, except Air India where there is only one private sector bank. Further, if a PSE defaults on its loan repayment, resolution under IBC can help in the process of disinvestment.

The Public Enterprises Survey (2017-18) showed that 71 central PSEs are loss making, out of which 56 showed negative net worth. It is likely that several PSEs may not have been able to service their debts to their financial or operational creditors. Until 2016, these companies were subject to the restructuring process under the BIFR. However, the process of closure has been far from satisfactory. For example, in 2011, the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) in its report on closure of PSEs stressed on the need of professional insolvency practitioners to ensure maximum value is obtained either from restructuring or closure of the central PSEs. The Public Enterprises Survey (2015-16) showed that BIFR had listed 18 central PSEs for winding up and closure. But as on July, 2019, only two of those companies were actually closed. In the event of a default by a sick company, the IBC can greatly expedite the process of closure.

Conclusion

Under the older laws governing insolvency, due to multiplicity of processes, the High Court often played the role of being the main forum for settlement of claims. We have already seen that the High Courts, acting as the company court, have demonstrated high rates of pendency. For instance, the Official Liquidator in the Bombay High Court reported that out of 1464 cases pending before the court, 739 have been pending for more than ten years. The IBC has been formulated as a complete code for insolvency laws with specified tribunals and an administrative machinery for its enforcement.

We believe that there is nothing in the IBC that precludes its use by PSEs. Using the IBC to resolve the financially insolvent and bankrupt PSEs in a time-bound manner will facilitate and may even help expedite the process of disinvestment by the government. It can also have implications for the policy concerning restructuring and closure of PSEs.

 

The authors are researchers at NIPFP. We thank an anonymous referee for useful comments.

Saturday, July 01, 2017

Using the bankruptcy code for privatisation of state owned firms that have a negative value

by Ajay Shah

In the past, we have seen privatisation as a sale of equity shares. As an example, consider the VSNL privatisation. Everything else about VSNL was held intact; there was just a change in the owner of the equity shares.

This works for a firm like VSNL, where there is positive value after paying off all the liabilities. What about a firm that is so far gone that there is no bidder if we put up the shares for sale? What about the situation where the prospective cashflows from the firm don't pay for the liabilities that are in place.

As an example, consider a firm that has Rs.100 of equity that is all owned by the government, the firm has Rs.200 of debt, and the firm is worth Rs.50 if it is sold as an all-equity firm. If we simply try to sell this firm, buyers will worry about having to take responsibility for Rs.200 of debt.

India has not done a privatisation in such a situation so far. There are two ways out, one that was always possible, and one that is now possible using the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code of 2016.

One way is to permit negative bids


As an example, in Germany, in 1990 a government agency was created which was put in charge of all the property of the previous German Democratic Republic (GDR). It led the privatisation of 8,500 state owned firms with over 4 million employees. Many of those firms were in deep trouble. A key ingredient which made the privatisation strategy work was that negative bids were permitted.

In our example, the auction will reveal a price of -150. The government will pay the buyer Rs.150, who will augment it with Rs.50 of his own, and pay off the debt of Rs.200. At the end of this, he is holding an all-equity firm which has cashflows worth Rs.50.

In this case, the lenders get Rs.200, and the government gets Rs.-150. The payment of Rs.150 is an ordinary fiscal expenditure for the government.

The other possibility is to utilise the bankruptcy code


  1. The firm defaults on one payment.
  2. One creditor initiates the Insolvency Resolution Process under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016.
  3. The creditors committee is formed.
  4. The bidder comes in with a plan which offers Rs.50 for control of the company.
  5. The creditors committee agrees to wipe out the debt, take the Rs.50 in the bargain, and walk away.
  6. In the end, the bidder gets a clean all-equity firm for the price of Rs.50.

This is a method for privatisation that can now be used in India, when we face firms which have a negative net worth and the creditors will cooperate with the government.

In this case, the lenders  get Rs.50, and the government gets 0.

Conclusion


Financial engineering cannot create value. The fact, in our example, is that the NPV of the cashflows of the company are worth Rs.50. The two solutions address this problem in two different ways. If we do a pure transaction involving equity shares only, then the government has to pay Rs.150, and the lenders are fully protected. If we put the firm into the bankruptcy process, the government (i.e. the equity shareholders) walks away with nothing, and the lenders walk away with Rs.50.

Friday, June 30, 2017

What happens to private airlines when Air India is privatised?

by Ajay Shah.

What's the impact of privatising Air India upon the rest of the domestic airline industry? Some think that the capital stock of Air India will now be put into more capable hands, and that will intensify competition. Instead of a feeble competitor with assets of Rs.546 billion, we'll have a strong competitor wielding those same assets.

As was argued by me in August 2009, the `zombie firms' literature helps us think about this. A zombie firm is one which ought to go out of business, but is artificially kept on life support. Sometimes, the subsidy is explicit, such as the fiscal injections into Air India. Sometimes, the subsidy is less visible, such as banks extending additional capital to bankrupt firms. Regardless of the method adopted, the basic fact stands: A firm that ought to have gone out of business was given a subsidy through which it sold goods at below cost.

To fix intuition, imagine a market price of Rs.100. Imagine a weak firm that, on its own, is only able to produce at Rs.110. This firm ought to rapidly vanish. But instead, it's given a subsidy of Rs.11 (either by the government or by banks) and it manages to sell at Rs.99. This keeps it going. This also harms the healthy firms in the industry, who have to deal with competition from this dead man walking.

Turning to Air India, in 2014-15 the firm produced a profit after tax that was -28.4% of total income. For each Rs.100 of total income, there was a loss of Rs.28.4. The overall industry was at -11.7%, and the industry average was dragged down by Air India which is a substantial player.

The presence of zombie firms harms healthy firms. It's hard for a healthy firm to compete against one that's getting a subsidy. By this logic, the exit of a zombie firm is good news for each firm left standing in the industry.

If one of the incumbent large Indian airlines buys Air India, the combination will have significant market power, which would be a suboptimal outcome. It would be nice, from the viewpoint of competition policy, if a new player buys Air India. In either event, the low and subsidised prices charged by Air India will end. This will improve the profitability of the domestic airline industry. All healthy firms benefit when we address the problem of zombie firms.

Air India's privatisation is an interesting milestone where we may see some of these effects play out. The issue of zombie firms is, of course, present in many parts of the Indian economy. We have a peculiar arrangement where zombie banks keep zombie firms alive. Disrupting these arrangements holds the key for starting India on the next bout of growth.

Monday, March 16, 2015

Bureaucrats in business: The tension between rule of law and commercial considerations

by Anirudh Burman, Shubho Roy, Ajay Shah.

How to achieve high performance in government


In government, the route to performance lies in clarity of objectives and accountability mechanisms, grounded in the rule of law. Every transaction undertaken by a government must be grounded in a written down process, must treat all legal persons equally (Article 14 of the Constitution), must go through due process, must be open to questioning later on. All persons must have full documentation about how the government will behave under various circumstances, must be given documentation about how their transaction was processed, and explained why. Coercive actions of the State must be subject to judicial review. Purchases must be made through General Financial Rules (GFR).

How to achieve high performance in business


These bureaucratic processes have no place in the world of business.

For a firm, counterparties have no Article 14 rights. A manager must choose to give a contract to vendor A or vendor B based on an overall sense of how this will work out. The manager is not obliged to give a reasoned order or even to treat vendors equally.

In finance, private persons choose to buy equity or debt by exercising their own judgment. There is no obligation to have due process or to face audits that question commercial decisions.

This gun-slinging exercise of discretion works because the competitive market sorts it all out. Firms are kept on their toes by the accountability mechanism of the market. Firms get high speed feedback from the market about how they are faring. Good decisions yield improved profits and improved stock prices, and vice versa.

Phase I of India's journey


When Indian socialism was being constructed, the government wanted to be in business. There is a fundamental contradiction between the decision processes that are required in business when compared with the rule of law.

The solution adopted was to sacrifice the rule of law. All across the Indian state, we got politicians and bureaucrats wielding arbitrary power. The construction of Indian socialism damaged India's institutional capital.

Phase II of India's journey


In recent years, the tide has turned decisively. The Constitution of India is asserting itself. We are building the rule of law, we are restoring the institutional capital. You can no longer fudge the process for allocation of spectrum or coal mines. The old clubby ways are being stripped away, all across government.

Some people continue to yearn for the bad old days when a bureaucrat wielded unchecked power, but those days are safely behind us. As an example, see: CAG asks why Air India sold five Boeing 777s at loss to Etihad in 2013 by Mihir Mishra in today's Economic Times.

This great push towards the rule of law has one important implication: the push for the rule of law makes it  harder for the government to do business.

In the olden days, a public sector company could exercise discretion, and participate in the world of business, because the rule of law in India was in tatters. Now that India is pushing back into rebuilding the rule of law, this makes life difficult for the parts of government that are engaged in commercial activities.

On an international scale, we generally see that in countries with strong rule of law, we don't see public sector companies. The intuition that has been offered, in the past, is that there is a deeper thing called `good institutions'; in countries with good institutions, we see the rule of law and we see the absence of public sector companies. Conversely, when there is low institutional quality, we see failures on the rule of law and we see the phenomenon of public sector companies.

The main argument of this article is that there is another causal connection in the picture. A country that sets out to have public sector companies will damage the rule of law, and a country that sets out to strengthen the rule of law will damage public sector companies. Perhaps countries with strong rule of law lack public sector companies as those rule of law strictures have interfered with their functioning.

Implications for public sector companies e.g. public sector banks


In the best of times, it is difficult for bureaucrats to be in business. All over the world, there is ample evidence that government ownership of business hampers productivity. Layered on top of this is this new twist. Earlier, a bank in India could exercise more arbitrary power in trading securities, giving loans, restructuring bad loans, etc. But once public sector banks come under the full strictures of the rule of law, this becomes harder. India's drive towards the rule of law is detrimental to the concept of a public sector company that is owned by the government but engages in commercial activities.

We repeatedly hear public sector bankers complain that it's impossible to do the business of banking when placed under the myriad accountability mechanisms of the government. Their solution is that the rule of law is optional, that banks should be exempted from these requirements even when banks are owned by the government. We suggest that the solution lies in government getting out of banking.

Where is the line drawn, where a public sector company is the State?


Article 12 of the Constitution says: In this part, unless the context otherwise requires, the State includes the Government and Parliament of India and the Government and the Legislature of each of
the States and all local or other authorities within the territory of India or under the control of the Government of India.


This is important because Part III (fundamental rights) can be claimed against the State, such as equal treatment, non-discrimination, etc.

Here the word `includes' implies that this is not an exhaustive definition. The courts have developed tests to determine what `other authorities' means. The key case is Ajay Hasia. These questions turn on the issues of control and financing: (a) the degree of government control over the administration of the authority, (b) the degree of funding/ grants made to the authority, (c) power to appoint/ remove officials, etc. Based on these criteria, various kinds of entities such as public sector companies, educational institutions that receive government money, etc., have been termed state.

When the government owns less than 50% of a commercial enterprise, that organisation is generally not classified as State. However, evidence of pervasive control in such cases may lead to a judicial
determination that the entity is "state" under Article 12. For statutory monopolies or organisations with pervasive State control, even going below 50% ownership does not elude classification as State. In the case of R.D.Shetty v. International Airport Authority of India the Supreme Court stated that an entity such as the International Airports Authority could not act arbitrarily, but was subject to constitutional requirements.

It stated that, ...power or discretion of the government in the matter of grant or largesse including award of jobs, contracts, quotas, licences etc. must be confined and structured by rational, relevant and non-discriminatory standard or norm.... It then went on to say that corporations established by statute, or incorporated under law (including any company under the Companies Act) are "state"
if they satisfy certain tests based on:

  1. The source of share capital.
  2. Extent of state control over the corporation, and whether it is deep and pervasive.
  3. Whether the corporation has monopoly status.
  4. Whether the functions of the corporation are of public importance and closely related to governmental functions; and
  5. Whether, what belonged to a government department formerly was transferred to the corporation.

For a more detailed answer, see this report of the Law Commission (page 4, paras 2.3 to 2.6).

Three important issues arise related to the 1979 ruling of the Supreme Court:

  1. A business entity making a commercial decision does not hand out contracts as a "grant or largesse", but as a competitive player in the market interested in purchasing goods or services that satisfy its own requirements. To constrain it by the rule of law is to fetter its commercial decision making process.
  2. The transition of the Indian state is different from the transition of many western democracies such as the USA and UK. These democracies transitioned from laissez faire states to
    regulatory states. The Indian state on the other hand, is transitioning from a pervasive state to a regulatory state. Until not too long ago, the state ran hotels and manufactured bread. As such, most functions sought to be deregulated and/or performed by companies/ corporations are or were of public importance, and closely related to governmental functions.
  3. In India, many government functions are being privatised or handed over to government companies. A good example is telecom. Telecommunication services were first transferred to public sector companies owned by the central government, and eventually privatised.

On a related note, GFR has a rule to prevent escaping from GFR through subsidiarisation: Once government provides majority funding to a body, it must accept GFR and CAG.

This results in a situation where though de jure transfers of control, ownership and management have taken place, for government owned/ controlled corporations, there is never a complete de facto escape from the constitutional constraints on the Indian state. Such entities are unable, from the point of inception to act purely on commercial motives. It is therefore questionable whether any government
strategy that aims at greater market discipline and efficiency in a sector can be successful through the route of establishing government owned/ managed entities. Alternatively, the precedent on what constitutes "state" needs to be reviewed. The judgements on what constitutes "state" were made in the era of a pervasive state. A regulatory state must be defined differently.

Tuesday, October 09, 2012

Should government capitalise public sector banks?

by Harsh Vardhan.

What would you say if someone was borrowing money at 8% and investing it to earn around 3%? "Uninformed!", "financially illiterate!" or even outright "foolish"! And yet this is what our government has been doing with trillions of rupees over the last many years and has committed to continue to do so in the future. The process by which this is done is called capitalisation of public sector (PS) banks. Such capitalization is not only a bad idea economically as it puts enormous stress on the government resources, but also one which affects that behavior of banks and hence the robustness of the whole banking sector.

Commercial banks need capital to grow. Capital adequacy requirements ask all banks to keep a minimum amount of shareholder capital in proportion to their balance sheet size. Currently, in India this requirement is 9% of "risk weighted assets" of banks. Roughly, it means that banks are expected to have equity capital which is 9% of their commercial loans.

As banks grow their business, their risk weighted assets also grow. This means that banks has to increase their capital base in line with the growth of their loan book. Such increase in capital can come from exactly two sources - retained profits that are added to the capital base, or fresh infusion of capital from shareholders (old or new). In India, given the overall profitability of the banks (~1.1% return on assets) and the amount of dividend that they pay (~20%) of post-tax profits, banks do not have enough retained profits to support their business growth. Therefore, every now and then, they go to shareholders to raise fresh capital.

PS banks pose a peculiar challenge for the government. Being the majority owner of these banks and having committed to stay the majority owner, government has to infuse capital into these banks proportional to its ownership stake. Since the government wants to maintain its ownership at 51%, it has to supply atleast 51% of the fresh capital that PS banks need. RBI governor Dr. Subbarao, in a recent speech, said that the capital infusion by government into PS banks over the next decade will be of the order of Rs.0.9 trillion. I have read estimates of other analysts where this number is as high as Rs.2.50 trillion. These estimates depend on the assumptions one makes about a number of factors - the rate of growth of banks (which in turn depends on the growth of the overall economy), the profitability of banks, their dividend policy, their ability to raise other forms of capital (especially tier II capital), regulatory requirements on capital, etc. No matter how you estimate it, the number is very large. In other words, the government will be compelled to invest a very large amount of capital into PS banks over coming years.

Why is this a problem? Let’s look at the some simple public finance issues. India is in a deep fiscal crisis, and it is not easy to find trillions of rupees to put into PS banks. If such resources were injected into PS banks, it is not conducive to healthy public finance, since these injections are not a good deal for the government. The Indian government currently borrows long term money at over 8%. The dividend yield on PS banks shares has been between 2% and 3% over the last decade. This means that the government earns between 2% and 3% on its investments in PS banks. There is a 5% “negative carry” or loss that government bears on these investments.

A private investor also earns a low dividend yield from investing in PS banks, but can benefit from capital gains - a potential increase in the value of shares which the investor can obtain when she sells the shares. Government has never sold shares of PS banks (except when it initially listed some banks) and will not do so if it has to maintain majority ownership which is its stated policy. Hence, for the government, the financial analysis of a proposal to put money into PS banks should hinge on a comparison between the flow of dividends versus the cost of borrowing.

Capitalisation of PS banks is, thus, bad for government finances. It's a double whammy! On the one had government has to raise vast resources to be invested into banks and then carries a loss of around ~5% on these investments year after year.

Ownership and behavior of banks


Government capitalisation of PS banks is not just a fiscal challenge. It also impacts the competitive dynamics of the banking industry. Most privately owned banks are under constant scrutiny of investors and analysts. When they go to external investors for raising capital, they have to satisfy these investors on number of critical aspects of the business - profitability and its sustainability, efficiency of capital use, quality of management team, cost efficiency, etc. In other words, private banks face a market test; they do not get capital for free. Only well run private banks get equity capital that is required for growth.

None of these questions get asked when government puts capital into a PS bank. One has never heard a senior government official commenting on the Return on Asset (RoA) or Return on Equity( RoE) of PS banks. The decision to put capital into PS banks is treated as a mechanical and administrative decision. This absence of a market test has systemic consequences. PS banks have ~70% share of the Indian market. When the majority owner is asking no or very few questions on performance, and is assuring an almost unlimited supply of capital, these banks have little incentive to improve financial metrics such RoA and RoE. This hurts the overall banking industry. For example, PS banks can underprice loans compared to their private sector peers. Such behavior would migrate the whole business to lower returns. It is hard for a private bank to be profitable when facing rivals that are not concerned about return on capital.

Misplaced obsession with majority ownership


The source of this whole capitalisation issue is the government's obsession with retaining majority (over 51%) ownership of PS banks. This is often explained in terms of the need to maintain the "public sector character" of these banks. While there may be a separate debate on whether we need to maintain public sector character for all the 25 plus PS banks, the fact is that the government does not need majority ownership to achieve this objective.

  All PS banks are not companies under the Companies Act. The notion of 51% giving majority control is enshrined in the Companies Act. PS banks were created under the Nationalisation Act (SBI has its own SBI Act). The Nationalisation Act provides the government untrammelled control over these bank. While it does prescribe 51% government ownership in the PS banks, the control of government is independent of the level of its ownership. Furthermore, there is a limit of a 5% (10% with prior approval of the RBI) stake owned by any single shareholder in all banks. There is no chance, therefore, of any external shareholder acquiring control in these banks. Even relatively minor changes to the functioning of PS banks require approval of the parliament. Where is then the question of diluting the public sector character if the government ownership were to drop to, let's say 26%, which is the threshold for "significant" minority stake in a company?

In the long run, therefore, it makes no sense for the government to commit itself to the capitalisation of PS banks. Precious government resources can be better deployed in critical areas (such as power transmission and distribution) where private capital on large scale is hard to come by. In the medium term, it can use tactical measures such as merging banks where it has significantly high ownership with those where the ownership is already down to 51%. But these tactics will not solve the issue structurally. The only long term solution is to give up the majority obsession, explain to all the stakeholders the fallacy of this obsession and the resulting pressure on public finance, build a political consensus to enact necessary legislative changes and then dilute down to a reasonable level.

Thursday, October 06, 2011

Should government put fresh equity capital into State Bank of India?

The discussion about State Bank of India (SBI) has treated one proposition as a given: that it is the job of the Ministry of Finance to continually inject capital into SBI so as to enable the growth of the SBI balance sheet; that SBI has a legitimate claim upon fiscal resources at all times.

I'm not sure this is a good way to think about the business of banking. The first task of a bank should be to produce adequate retained earnings so as to support the desired growth. If a bank cannot produce retained earnings enough to grow, there is reason for thinking that it should not grow.

Let's compare the performance of the best private bank (HDFC Bank) and a good PSU bank (Bank of Baroda) from this perspective.

Growth of the balance sheet and leverage


Let's look at how the two banks have fared, from 1999-2000 onwards, on the core issues of balance sheet growth and leverage:


1999-2000 2010-11
Bank of Baroda
   Total assets 58,623 358,397
   Leverage 18.12 17.07
HDFC Bank
   Total assets 11,731 277,429
   Leverage 15.33 10.93


From 1999-2000 to 2010-11, there has been a sharply superior performance by HDFC Bank. At the start, it was a small bank - with a balance sheet of just Rs.11,731 crore while BOB was roughly 5x bigger. By the end, HDFC Bank was at a balance sheet size of Rs.277,429 crore while BOB was at Rs.358,397 crore.

What is more, HDFC Bank did this while being more prudent: they deleveraged in this period: They went from a leverage ratio of 15.33 to a leverage ratio of 10.93. In contrast, BOB stayed at a much higher leverage (18.12 at the start and 17.07 at the end).

The bottom line: BOB grew net worth by 6.5 times and the balance sheet by 6.11 times. HDFC Bank grew net worth by 33.17 times and the balance sheet by 23.65 times.

So how did the net worth grow?


In the naive intuition that's being bandied about in the discussion about SBI, there would be an expectation that the expansion of net worth would be obtained by asking shareholders (new or existing) for money. What happened in HDFC Bank and BOB was a bit different.

The hallmark of a healthy bank is the production of retained earnings which can be ploughed back into the business. HDFC Bank did that: over this period, it brought 13.23% of total assets (summing across the 12 years) back into the business, so as to grow net worth. BOB did not do as well: it brought only 7.86% of total assets back into the business.

In addition, HDFC Bank raised 13.66% of total assets by bringing in fresh capital. BOB, in contrast, brought in only 2.11% of total assets into the business. You could criticise the Ministry of Finance for being niggardly in giving BOB equity capital.

Summary


A well run bank must put retained earnings back to work. If a bank is unable to fund its own growth by increasing net worth through retained earnings, there is reason to be concerned about the health of the core business.

A steady flow of new capital from shareholders, in order to enable growth, is not that different from recapitalisation in response to bad assets.

Public money is precious. The Ministry of Finance would do well to be very, very stingy in doling out public money to PSUs. Each Rs.5000 crore that goes into a PSU comes at an opportunity cost of 1000 kilometres of NHAI highways which could have been built using that money.

If a PSU cannot grow its balance sheet, odds are the problem lies within: it needs to become a better run business and thus grow the balance sheet using retained earnings. Such PSUs are precisely the ones who are the least deserving to gain fresh capital. If anything, fresh capital should be directed into banks like HDFC Bank (as the private capital markets have), who are doing a great job of producing retained earnings.

Saturday, June 11, 2011

India's privatisation problem

When the UPA came to power, the word privatisation was buried, partly out of deference for the communist parties which were supporting the UPA. The sale of shares did revive after the UPA-2 commenced [history].

On a global scale, the experience with firms like British Airways and AlItalia has done a lot to persuade people that government is a terrible owner of firms. As a consequence, even though governments worldwide took up ownership of many financial firms during the global crisis of 2008 and 2009, there was never any question that this `nationalisation' would be more than temporary. In OECD countries, there is full clarity that even if government gets into a firm when the firm is in trouble (for certain public policy reasons), this ownership must only be temporary and government must get out of this unpleasant state as soon as possible.

Given the lack of commitment to economic reform in the UPA, expectations in India on the question of privatisation have been low. But the problems of public sector firms are glaringly large and the issue does not go away.

We are all used to Air India being a phenomenally bad use of public money. But as T. N. Ninan points out in the Business Standard today, there are quite a few other such breathtakingly large sinks for public resources. As he says:

...it takes a special kind of government company to lose Rs 8 crore a day, while earning just Rs 10 crore as revenue -- and that in the booming field of telecommunications. That's Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL) for you. Its big sister, the Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL), also loses Rs 8 crore a day, though it earns much more revenue -- about Rs 90 crore daily. BSNL blames the jailed former minister A Raja for its troubles, but there must be more to the story. Now the two companies propose to merge; expect an Air India kind of situation, with staff from the two companies battling over pay and seniority many years into the future.

Air India, meanwhile, provides more proof that the government is a lousy shareholder. One minister destroyed the airline. Another now watches while the airline cuts flights because it has exhausted its credit and credibility, and therefore has to pay for fuel in cash. The staff, meanwhile, is not paid incentives that are equal to something like half their monthly salary in most cases -- and the government expects this de-motivated staff to fight and regain lost marketshare, to offer service with a smile to passengers.

And what about Prasar Bharati, the once supposedly autonomous broadcaster which is now once again little more than a government department? It employs 38,000 people, and loses Rs 2.5 crore a day, to earn about as much revenue. Someone should ask the obvious question: Why is the government in the business of running phone companies, airlines and news broadcasting when it is losing large dollops of money, when private providers are doing a reasonable job, and when there is no shortage of competition? For that matter, does the government need to make watches (at HMT), cement (at Cement Corporation of India), tyres (at Tyre Corporation of India), or shoes (at Bharat Leather)?

The UPA-2 made a big break with the pessimism by moving forward on selling off Scooters India. The long spell of zero privatisation may come to an end, with the UPA-2 selling off Scooters India.

But how might one view the prospect of government selling off some of the other public sector firms? I think a sound approach to this question involves three elements.

1. Removing entry barriers

The first piece of the story is that it is essential to remove entry barriers in various fields, which were once dominated by the public sector. Our poster child in this regard is telecom. Private and foreign firms came into Indian telecom; Indian users of telecom services were huge beneficiaries. Whether MTNL / BSNL were privatised, as VSNL was, was of second order importance. The most important thing that is required for India to make progress is for government to not get in the way of the private sector.

As an example, Indian banking is a place where there are steep anti-competitive restrictions against private and foreign banks. While I believe we should have strong rules about ownership and governance for banks (just as we should in critical financial infrastructure), we should not be blocking the rise of suitable private and foreign banks. We should not be blocking the long-term decline in importance of PSU banks. Getting out of the way of private and foreign banks is as important, if not more important, as the task of selling PSU banks.

2. Dispersed shareholding corporations rather than strategic sales

If all PSUs were sold off, the top 500 families of India would likely endup controlling all of them. This prospect makes one worry, about the increased concentration of economic and thus political power. It would be far better if India move towards privatisation by creating dispersed shareholding (e.g. ICICI or HDFC) instead of privatisation through strategic sales (e.g. VSNL).

This issue also links nicely to the problem of corruption. A country where spectrum auctions can take place while requiring bids to be placed in 45 minutes is a country where auctions that sell off PSUs could be rigged. It is, hence, far better to setup a steady drip whereby 0.1% of the shares of a PSU are sold every day into the pre-opening call auction at NSE and BSE, so that 25% is sold every year. Such a procedure comprehensively eliminates the problems of government process in the sale of shares. The government would merely put out an advertisement, before the story began, saying that over the next 250 days, it will sell 0.1% of this firm on every single day into the NSE and BSE call auctions.

Alongside this sale of shares, government would need to take interest in establishing good quality corporate governance structures for these companies, which are transiting out of government control into becoming dispersed shareholding corporations.

Even in the case of Scooters India, suppose government decided to sell off its ownership of 95.38% within 100 days. It is better to do this without bringing any investment banker into the picture, by selling 0.9538% into the call auction for every day in the coming 100 days, after making a public announcement to this effect. Alongside this, government would need to setup a good quality board and then allow ordinary corporate governance procedures to work.

3. GDP growth, not proceeds

Every now and then, these discussions get stuck on the issue of how government can maximise the proceeds from selling off (say) Scooters India. This is the wrong end of the puzzle. The really important story is about how the labour and capital that's blocked inside Scooters India can turn into greater output. Once that's done, government collects the NPV of future taxation that this productive enterprise will generate.

The focus should be on getting assets out of public control, while avoiding the corruption or political complexity of strategic sales. As long as these are achieved, the magnitude of the proceeds is not of great importance.

Sunday, April 03, 2011

Defence land: A key dimension of India's privatisation problem

As Vijay Kelkar has long emphasised, India's privatisation question should be viewed as a question about the portfolio of the State. For each Rs.10,000 crore of shares of Air India that the government owns, it is forgoing 2,000 kilometres of highways. The State needs to ask itself whether it is better to own 2,000 kilometres of highways as opposed to owning the same shares of Air India. On this subject, also see Section 4.3 of this paper.

The second key dimension that should shape the discussion on privatisation is that of improving GDP growth. When assets are moved from public control to private control, the translation of capital stock and labour into GDP growth generally becomes more effective. Through this, India would reap GDP growth by better utilisation of existing resources.

Both these issues have, so far, been largely seen questions about the control of public sector undertakings (PSUs). But both issues are broader: they are about asset ownership by the government more broadly. Given India's socialist background, government has frequently and wantonly grabbed assets, far beyond those required for the production of public goods. Hence, the problem of selling off assets is much bigger than just PSUs.

As an example, this article says:
The defence ministry is the largest state landowner, holding 80 percent of the 7,000 square kilometres of government land, much of it now prime real estate, according to the CAG report released Friday.
Here is the CAG report referenced there.

There are two interesting dimensions to the problems of defence land. First, while the Ministry of Defence undoubtedly needs large tracts of land on which it can run exercises, training, experiments, etc., it certainly does not require prime land in cities.

The heart and soul of a city is the dense interactions between top decile people. What makes a great city is greater interactions within a greater density of higher talent people. By definition, military installations are aloof from the general population; they do not interact with the main citizenry. Hence, large military installations are like black holes in a city: they increase distances for everyone else, and they stand aloof. The presence of big defence lands in cities is not just about wasting fiscal resources (you'd be better off selling that land and retiring public debt) but primarily about increasing the quality of the cities.

There is a case for placing defence research labs in other innovation hubs of India - e.g. Bangalore, Poona or Bombay. This is justified because they would serve to increase the density of scientists thus enhancing the quality of these cities, and because these defence labs would benefit from interactions with civilian scientists. Barring research labs, there is no case for placing defence facilities in cities.

There may be a role for one big HQ in New Delhi, but I don't see why dozens or other defence installations are required to be in Delhi. The governments stands to raise trillions of rupees by selling this land and shifting these organisations to locations in the boondocks, where land is roughly free. And there is a further kicker: When defence holdings in places like New Delhi or Poona are moved off into private ownership, India's GDP will go up. So this is a win-win at two levels: First, India's fiscal problem is eased by selling defence land and writing down debt, and India's GDP is increased because the land gets put to productive use.

Similarly, I don't see why anything connected with the Indian Navy needs to be in Bombay. It's perfectly feasible to create naval bases at boondocks locations on the coast and thus free up the space used in high marginal product land.

The second interesting dimension is that of the Ministry of Defence as a creator of new cities. If you start off with land in the boondocks, on day one, nobody wants to go there. The Ministry of Defence has the ability to solve the coordination problem. It can engineer the synchronised movement of a large number of distinct pieces that are required to create a new cantonment town. Once this has been put into motion, within 20 years or so after starting up, it would be wise for the government to sell this off and start over. For MoD, there is little difference between being in a mature cantonment town versus a brand-new one. But for the exchequer, enormous value is created through this process. And for India, this works well because new cities can be steadily created in this fashion.