2024 United States presidential election in South Carolina
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| Elections in South Carolina |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in South Carolina is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. South Carolina voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of South Carolina has nine electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Although not as Republican-leaning as its fellow Deep South states apart from neighboring Georgia (which is newly competitive at the federal level but still slightly red at the state level), South Carolina nevertheless has a very conservative voting pattern, having been part of the Solid South voting bloc well into the early 1960s; and having overwhelmingly backed favorite son and segregationist Strom Thurmond for president in 1948. A state entrenched in the Bible Belt and moderately to strongly red at the federal and state levels, the only Democratic presidential candidate to win South Carolina since JFK in 1960 was Georgian Jimmy Carter in 1976, and the only ones to come within single digits of doing so were Carter in 1980, Southerner Bill Clinton in both of his 1990s victories (1992 and 1996), and Barack Obama in 2008.
Republican Donald Trump carried South Carolina by 14.2% in 2016 and by 11.6% four years later, slightly outperforming polls in both cycles. He is widely expected to comfortably win the state a third time in 2024.[2]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]On February 4, 2023, the Democratic National Committee approved a new 2024 primary calendar, moving South Carolina to hold its race first on February 3, 2024.[3] Due to protests to the change, the New Hampshire primary was scheduled for January 23, maintaining its traditional "first-in-the-nation" status. However, the primary was deemed non-binding, so the South Carolina primary was the first contest in which candidates could earn delegates.[4] President Biden won the primary in a landslide, winning all 55 of the state's unbound delegates.[5] The Democratic primary recorded low voter turnout among registered voters, with only 4% participating.[6]
The South Carolina Democratic primary was held on February 3, 2024.
- >90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 126,493 | 96.2% | 55 | TBD | 55 |
| Marianne Williamson | 2,732 | 2.1% | 0 | TBD | 0 |
| Dean Phillips | 2,247 | 1.7% | 0 | 0 | |
| Total: | 131,472 | 100% | 55 | 10 | 65 |
Republican primary
[edit]The South Carolina Republican primary was held on February 24, 2024, the fifth contest in the nationwide Republican primaries. Nikki Haley, who served as the governor of South Carolina from 2011 to 2017, lost her home state to former president Donald Trump by 20 points. Trump won six congressional districts, earning a total of 47 delegates. Haley won the 1st district, earning three delegates. The Republican primary recorded a voter turnout of 23% among its registered voters, passing its 2016 turnout record.[8]
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 452,496 | 59.79% | 47 | 47 | |
| Nikki Haley | 299,084 | 39.52% | 3 | 3 | |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 2,953 | 0.39% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 726 | 0.10% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 658 | 0.09% | |||
| Ryan Binkley | 528 | 0.07% | |||
| David Stuckenberg | 361 | 0.05% | |||
| Total: | 756,806 | 100.00% | 50 | 0 | 50 |
| Source: [10] | |||||
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[11] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[12] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[14] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[15] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[16] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[17] | Likely R | August 23, 2024 |
| 538[18] | Likely R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[19] | Likely R | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[20][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 501 (LV) | – | 52% | 40% | 8% |
| Emerson College[21] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 37% | 12% |
| The Citadel[22] | February 5–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 54% | 35% | 11% |
| Winthrop University[23] | February 2–10, 2024 | 1,717 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 35% | 15% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[24] | February 1–8, 2024 | 679 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 34% | 14% |
| 643 (LV) | 54% | 36% | 10% | |||
| Echelon Insights[25] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 51% | 39% | 10% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[26] | August 24–25, 2022 | 721 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 34% | 20% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Joe Manchin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Joe Manchin Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Citadel[22] | February 5–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 32% | 9% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Citadel[22] | February 5–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Winthrop University[23] | February 2–10, 2024 | 1,717 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 47% | 29% | 24% |
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Joe Manchin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Joe Manchin Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Citadel[22] | February 5–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 41% | 25% | 20% | 3% | 4% | 7% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[20][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 501 (LV) | – | 47% | 40% | 13% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[20][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 501 (LV) | – | 50% | 35% | 15% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights[25] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
Ballot changes after the primaries
[edit]On July 21, 2024, Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race and endorsed Kamala Harris.[27] [28] Harris and running mate Tim Walz replaced Biden on the South Carolina ballot.
On August 23, 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed Donald Trump.[29] [30] The Alliance Party of South Carolina removed Kennedy's name from the ballot, fielding no presidential candidate on their ticket for the year.[31]
South Carolina political parties had until September 3rd to make final changes and certify their presidential and vice presidential candidates for the state ballot.[32]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | |||||
| Democratic | |||||
| Libertarian | |||||
| Green | |||||
| Constitution | |||||
| South Carolina Workers Party | |||||
| United Citizens | |||||
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | |||||
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in South Carolina
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 10, 2024.
- ^ Vakil, Caroline (February 4, 2023). "DNC approves adjusted early presidential primary schedule". The Hill. Retrieved March 13, 2023.
- ^ Kashinsky, Lisa (October 30, 2023). "Democrats launch write-in campaign for Biden in N.H." Politico. Retrieved October 30, 2023.
- ^ Nicholas, Peter (February 3, 2024). "Biden wins South Carolina primary, NBC News projects". NBC News. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
- ^ Hubbard, Kaia (February 4, 2024). "South Carolina Democratic primary turnout for 2024 and how it compares to previous years - CBS News". www.cbsnews.com. Retrieved February 7, 2024.
- ^ "South Carolina Democratic Primary Results". New York Times. Retrieved February 3, 2024.
- ^ "Here's what voter turnout looked like for South Carolina's primary elections". South Carolina Public Radio. February 27, 2024. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
- ^ "Rhode Island Presidential Primary". The AP. April 16, 2024. Retrieved April 18, 2024.
- ^ "10 Republicans will be on SC's presidential primary — but not Asa Hutchinson". The Post and Courier. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (February 20, 2024). "South Carolina 2024 Poll: Trump with 23-Point Lead Over Haley Ahead of GOP Primary". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b c d "Trump Leads Haley in South Carolina, but both candidates are finding advantages in the state". The Citadel. February 16, 2024. Archived from the original on March 1, 2024.
- ^ a b "February 2024 Winthrop Poll Results". Winthrop University. February 14, 2024.
- ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - South Carolina" (PDF). FAU Polling. February 13, 2024.
- ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
- ^ "McMaster Leads by 11 in SC Gov. Race But Poll Shows Plenty of Upside for Cunningham". Blueprint Polling. August 30, 2022. Archived from the original on August 31, 2022.
- ^ "Biden drops out of 2024 race after disastrous debate inflamed age concerns. VP Harris gets his nod". AP News. July 21, 2024. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
- ^ Alvarez, Jeremy Herb, MJ Lee, Jeff Zeleny, Phil Mattingly, Arlette Saenz, Priscilla (July 21, 2024). "Inside Biden's unprecedented exit from the presidential race | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ "RFK Jr. suspends his presidential bid and backs Donald Trump before appearing with him at his rally". AP News. August 23, 2024. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
- ^ "Robert F Kennedy Jr suspends campaign and backs Trump". www.bbc.com. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
- ^ Kenmore, Abraham (August 27, 2024). "Alliance Party removes Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from SC's ballot". SC Daily Gazette. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
- ^ Kenmore, Abraham (September 3, 2024). "SC finalizing list of presidential candidates on November ballot, sample ballots available soon". SC Daily Gazette. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
- ^ "Candidate Listing". MySCVotes. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
