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2024 Venezuelan presidential election

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2024 Venezuelan presidential election

← 2018 28 July 2024 2030 →
 
Candidate Nicolás Maduro Edmundo González
Party PSUV Independent
Alliance GPPSB PUD

President before election

Nicolás Maduro
PSUV

Elected President

TBA

Presidential elections were held in Venezuela on 28 July 2024 to choose a president for a six-year term beginning on 10 January 2025.[1][2] The contentious election, which was not free or fair,[3] occurred in a context where the incumbent Maduro administration controlled all power and repressed the political opposition.[1][4]

President Nicolás Maduro ran for a third consecutive term, while former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia represented the Unitary Platform (Spanish: Plataforma Unitaria Democrática; PUD), the main opposition political alliance. Other leading candidates of the Venezuelan opposition were disqualified by the government from participating in the election during their campaign or in previous elections. In June 2023, leading candidate María Corina Machado was barred from participating by the Venezuelan government.[5][6] This move was regarded by the opposition as a violation of political human rights and has been condemned by international bodies such as the Organization of American States,[7] the European Union,[8] and Human Rights Watch,[5] as well as numerous states.

There is strong evidence to suggest that González won the election by a wide margin,[9][10] with the opposition releasing tally sheets collected by poll watchers from a majority of polling centers showing a landslide victory for González.[7][11][12][13] The government-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) announced falsified[14][15][16] results claiming a narrow Maduro victory on 29 July.

In the aftermath of the government's announcement of falsified results claiming victory for Maduro, protests broke out across the country and the Maduro administration detained opposition political figures whilst refusing to relinquish power. World leaders predominantly rejected the CNE's claimed results and recognized González as the election winner[10][17][18] with a few exceptions such as Russia, China, and Iran.[19] The CNE's claimed results were also rejected by the Carter Center and Organization of American States, as well as media sources including El Espectador and Infobae.[15][16] The first country to recognize González as Venezuela's president-elect was Peru, on 30 July;[20] the United States, on 1 August;[need quotation to verify][21] followed by Argentina on 2 August.[22] Political scientist Steven Levitsky called the vote "one of the most egregious electoral frauds in modern Latin American history."[23]

Background

Democratic backsliding

The elections occurred within an authoritarian regime.[23][24] Since the 1990s, there has been significant democratic backsliding in the nation, with an increasing trend towards authoritarianism.[23]

Political scientist Steven Levitsky has considered "the years between 2004 and 2016 as a period of competitive authoritarianism" in which "government abuses power and violates rights such that the opposition is playing on a tilted playing field... But there is a playing field, there is an opposition and there is real competition for power".[23] Since Nicolás Maduro's presidency in 2013, Levitsky has argued that the nation has "approached" the status of a full-scale dictatorship, particularly "since the largest opposition parties and major politicians were prohibited from running" in the 2018 Venezuelan presidential election.[23] The elections were not considered free or fair by observers.[3]

Crisis in Venezuela

Since 2010, Venezuela has been suffering a socioeconomic crisis under Nicolás Maduro and briefly under his predecessor Hugo Chávez as rampant crime, hyperinflation and shortages diminish the quality of life.[25][26] As a result of discontent with the government, the opposition was elected to hold the majority in the National Assembly for the first time since 1999 following the 2015 parliamentary election.[27] After the election, the lame duck National Assembly—with a pro-government majority—filled the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, the highest court in Venezuela, with Maduro allies.[27][28] The tribunal stripped three opposition lawmakers of their National Assembly seats in early 2016, citing alleged "irregularities" in their election, thereby preventing an opposition supermajority which would have been able to challenge President Maduro.[27]

The tribunal approved several actions by Maduro and granted him more powers in 2017.[27] As protests mounted against Maduro, he called for a constituent assembly that would draft a new constitution to replace the 1999 Venezuela Constitution created under Chávez.[29] Many countries considered these actions a bid by Maduro to stay in power indefinitely,[30] and over 40 countries stated that they would not recognize the 2017 Constituent National Assembly (ANC).[31][32] The Democratic Unity Roundtable—the opposition to the incumbent ruling party—boycotted the election, saying that the ANC was "a trick to keep [the incumbent ruling party] in power".[33] Since the opposition did not participate in the election, the incumbent Great Patriotic Pole, dominated by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, won almost all seats in the assembly by default.[34] On 8 August 2017, the ANC declared itself to be the government branch with supreme power in Venezuela, banning the opposition-led National Assembly from performing actions that would interfere with the assembly while continuing to pass measures in "support and solidarity" with President Maduro, effectively stripping the National Assembly of all its powers.[35]

2018 election and presidential crisis

In February 2018, Maduro called for a presidential election four months before the prescribed date.[36] He was declared the winner in May 2018 after multiple major opposition parties were banned from participating, among other irregularities; many said the election was invalid.[37] Politicians both internally and internationally said Maduro was not legitimately elected,[38] and considered him an ineffective dictator.[24] In the months leading up to his 10 January 2019 inauguration, Maduro was pressured to step down by nations and bodies including the Lima Group (excluding Mexico), the United States, and the OAS; this pressure was increased after the new National Assembly of Venezuela was sworn in on 5 January 2019.[39][40] Between the May 2018 presidential election and Maduro's inauguration, there were calls to establish a transitional government.[41][42]

Maduro's new six-year term did not begin until 10 January 2019, when he took his official oath at a public ceremony in Caracas in front of the Venezuelan Supreme Court.[43] The election results were widely disputed both within Venezuela and in the broader international community.[44] Some politicians both internally and internationally said Maduro was not legitimately elected[45] In January 2019, the National Assembly invoked clauses of the 1999 Venezuelan Constitution to install National Assembly Speaker Juan Guaidó as acting president, precipitating the Venezuelan presidential crisis.[46]

By January 2020, efforts led by Guaidó to create a transitional government had been unsuccessful and Maduro continued to control Venezuela's state institutions.[47][48][49] In January 2021, the European Union stopped recognizing Guaidó as president, but still did not recognize Maduro as the legitimate president;[50] the European Parliament reaffirmed its recognition of Guaidó as president,[51][52] and the EU threatened with further sanctions.[50] After the announcement of regional elections in 2021, Guaidó announced a "national salvation agreement" and proposed the negotiation with Maduro with a schedule for free and fair elections, with international support and observers, in exchange for lifting international sanctions.[53]

In December 2022, three of the four main opposition political parties (Justice First, Democratic Action and A New Era) backed and approved a reform to dissolve the interim government and create a commission of five members to manage foreign assets, as deputies sought a united strategy ahead of the 2024 elections,[54][55] stating that the interim government had failed to achieve the goals it had set.[56]

2020 transitional government proposal

On 31 March 2020, the United States proposed a transitional government that would exclude both Maduro and Guaidó from the presidency.[57] The deal would enforce a power-sharing scenario between the different government factions. Elections would have to be held within the year, and all foreign militaries, particularly Cuba and Russia, would have to leave the country. The US were still seeking Maduro's arrest at the time of the announcement.[58] Other aspects of the US deal would include releasing all political prisoners and setting up a five-person council to lead the country; two members each chosen by Maduro and Guaidó would sit on the council, with the last member selected by the four. The European Union also agreed to remove sanctions if the deal went ahead. Experts have noted that the deal is similar to earlier proposals but explicitly mentions who would lead a transitional government, something which stalled previous discussions, and comes shortly after the US indicted Maduro, which might pressure him to peacefully leave power.[59]

Guaidó accepted the proposal,[60] while Venezuela's foreign minister, Jorge Arreaza, rejected it and declared that only the parliamentary election would take place in 2020.[61]

Opposition primaries

In November 2022, Diosdado Cabello, vice-president of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), insisted that the presidential election be moved forward to the first semester of 2023, stating that the opposition would end up confronting each other if this were the case considering that the primaries to define the candidate to represent them were planned for the same year.[62] The 2023 Unitary Platform presidential primaries were held on 22 October 2023.[63]

June

A group of women identified with the ruling party insulted and physically assaulted pre-candidate Henrique Capriles during a visit to Santa Inés, Carabobo state, in an attempt to disrupt his campaign.[64][65]

On 30 June 2023, the Comptroller General announced that pre-candidate and former National Assembly member María Corina Machado was disqualified from holding public office for 15 years, linking her to alleged crimes of Juan Guaidó, as well as supporting international sanctions against the country. She was allowed to participate in the opposition primaries because they are not regulated by Maduro's government.[66][67][68] Capriles was given the same sentence and barred from holding office until 2032.[66] Analysts stated that the accusations were incoherent, as Machado was not a member of the 2015 opposition National Assembly (having been disqualified by the Comptroller's Office), in addition to never having served in Guaidó's interim government.[69] The disqualification was considered illegal and unconstitutional by several jurists, including constitutional lawyer Allan Brewer Carías [es]. The Latin American and Caribbean Network for Democracy cited the precedent of the Petro Urrego v. Colombia sentence of the Inter-American Court of Human Rights in 2020, which determined that "it is a serious violation of political human rights if an administrative authority, and not a judge through due judicial process, politically disqualifies a citizen".[70]

July

On 10 July 2023, reported militants of the Communist Party of Venezuela filed a writ of amparo to the Supreme Tribunal of Justice to appoint an ad hoc board considering to the party, saying that it is "kidnapped" by its general secretary Óscar Figuera. The action followed the pattern of the Democratic Action, Copei and Tupamaro parties, where new presidencies were imposed judicially, co-opting the name and symbols of the parties. Communist movements in Latin America expressed their support for the party, as well as the Communist Workers' Platform USA and the American Council of Bolsheviks, who said in a joint statement "the [United Socialist Party of Venezuela] (PSUV), as a servant of the bourgeoisie, can never fulfill their false promise of socialism".[71][72]

Eight of the thirteen opposition candidates held a debate in the Universidad Católica Andrés Bello. It was the first presidential debate in Venezuela in 11 years. The participants were María Corina Machado for Vente Venezuela, Carlos Prosperi for Democratic Action, Freddy Superlano for Popular Will, transgender candidate Tamara Adrián for Unidos por la Dignidad, Delsa Solórzano for Encuentro Ciudadano, Andrés Velásquez for La Causa R, César Pérez Vivas for Concertación Ciudadana and Andrés Caleca for Movimiento por Venezuela.[73][74][75]

The Venezuelan fact checking outlet Cazadores de Fake News denounced an operation to discredit María Corina Machado. The operation was promoted by a disinformation network that originally spread disinformation about Leopoldo López, Juan Guaidó and other opposition politicians.[76] Pro-government militants tried to attack María Corina during a 15 July campaign act in Vargas state. The following day, they prevented a campaign rally in Petare, in the east of Caracas.[77][78] On 22 July, Vente Venezuela denounced death threats to Machado by the National Liberation Army (ELN), a far-left Colombian guerrilla group, after her campaign headquarters in La Fría, Táchira state, was painted overnight with messages such as "death to María Corina" and "primaries without María Corina", signed by the ELN. The group denied being the authors of those threats.[79][80]

On 27 July, the Popular Will denounced that Freddy Superlano, the party's pre-candidate, had his passport taken away by Venezuelan authorities at the Atanasio Girardot international bridge on the border with Colombia.[81]

August

Pre-candidate Delsa Solórzano denounced death threats involving the ELN, including messages on social media such as "the collective forces of the ELN are going to kill you".[82] Followers of Henrique Capriles said that Chavistas attacked Capriles supporters at a rally in Apure state. According to his party, Justice First, this was the seventh aggression against the pre-candidate or his followers since 29 May.[83]

On 14 August, the Unitary Platform issued a communiqué rejecting statements by government authorities linking the opposition primaries to political violence.[84]

October

On 12 October, political organization Fuerza Vecinal requested the primaries be suspended, arguing that conditions for primaries were not met.[85][86] On the day before the primaries, the National Union of Press Workers denounced that the regulatory entity CONATEL prohibited several media from covering the elections, causing the main radio circuits and some television channels in Venezuela to suspend operations.[87][88]

Conduct

In the early morning of 22 October, the day of the primary, Acción Democrática candidate, Carlos Prosperi, insulted journalist Eugenio Martínez after Martínez questioned accusations about the process of designation of table members.[89]

The president of the National Primary Commission (CP), Jesus María Casal, offered the first balance of the primaries around 9:15 am, stating that by that time more than 70% of the polling stations had been installed and that by then no incidents had been registered.[90]

In the morning, in the El Guarataro neighborhood of western Caracas, colectivos prevented the installation of the voting center in the area. The non-governmental organization Voto Joven denounced that the groups stole material from a voting table and that violence with a firearm was registered.[91] Neighbors of the neighborhood installed the voting center after the intimidation.[92] In Plaza La Estrella, in Caracas, the beginning of voting was postponed due to the intentional burning of garbage in the center of the voting point.[93][94] Nuns of the Patronato San José de Tarbes denounced that voters who tried to participate were threatened by colectivos, and that the center had to be moved to another location.[95] Also in the morning, armed civilians entered the voting point La Cañada, in San Juan parish, pointed at the coordinator of the voting center and took away a table during the beginning of the process, firing several shots.[96]

In Santa Rosalía parish, motorcyclists threw a tear gas cannister in the vicinity of the voting center. The point remained open and voters continued with the process.[97][98] In the afternoon, two men fired shots into the air at the voting point in Las Acacias, Caracas. Voters temporarily dispersed before returning to the polling place again.[96]

The vice-president of the Regional Board of Monagas state, Dexcy Moya, denounced that colectivos shouted expletives and threats in several voting centers in Maturin.[99]

From his polling station, Prosperi criticized again the organization of the primary election, stating that in some polling stations there was no distribution of electoral material. Prosperi was booed by the voters present.[100][101] A video was later leaked on social networks where Prosperi disowned in advance the results of the primaries, before they were announced.[102][103] His party Acción Democrática rejected the statements, saying that "it does not represent the position of the party" and to be "firm with unity".[104]

Exclusion of Machado and broken 2023 deal

In May 2023, the Unitary Platform announced primaries would be held to choose a single candidate for the presidential election. The October 2023 Unitary Platform presidential primaries was won in a landslide by María Corina Machado.[105] A few months earlier, in 30 June 2023, she had been disqualified for fifteen years by the Comptroller General of Venezuela. The sentence was then pending a decision in court.[106]

In October 2023, a deal was made between the opposition and Maduro's government over the holding of free and fair elections and the US in return for easing sanctions over the sale of oil.[107]

María Corina Machado disqualification was however confirmed by the Supreme Court of Justice of Venezuela in January 2024.[108] Moreover, following the poor turnout in the 2023 Venezuelan referendum, the chief prosecutor of Venezuela, Tarek William Saab, accused opposition leaders of sabotaging the referendum and issued arrest warrants for 15 of them, with charges such as treason and conspiracy. This appeared to be a further attempt to suppress political opposition ahead of the 2024 presidential election, despite free and fair elections being agreed with the US as a condition for lifting sanctions.[109] María Corina Machado and her supporters said they were attacked by colectivos during a February 2024 campaign rally in Charallave, Miranda state. Machado denounced that the attack occurred in front of security officials, who did not intervene.[110] With the main opposition candidate being banned from running, the US claimed Maduro's government had "fallen short" on its commitments, and reinstated the oil sanctions in April 2024.[111][112]

Organizations such as the United Nations, the Organization of American States, the European Union, and Human Rights Watch, as well as countries such as Colombia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Ecuador, United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Chile, Canada and France, rejected the political disqualification of opposition pre-candidate María Corina Machado.[113] Several foreign political leaders have condemned her disqualification, such as President Luis Lacalle Pou of Uruguay, President Mario Abdo Benítez of Paraguay, and President Gustavo Petro of Colombia, who in the past was also disqualified by an administrative instance and the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights restored his political rights.[114][115] At the Mercosur summit, President Alberto Fernández of Argentina, and President Lula da Silva of Brazil, refused to reject the disqualification.[116][117] Antony Blinken, U.S. Secretary of State, called Machado's disqualification "deeply unfortunate".[118] The European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, stated that the disqualification "undermines democracy".[119][120] On 13 July 2023, the European Parliament passed a resolution condemning the disqualification.[121]

Election dates and new law

The presidential election was scheduled to be held in 2024; according to the Venezuelan Constitution, presidential elections are to take place no later than December in the election year.[122][123]

The National Election Council (CNE) announced in March 2024 that the election would be held on 28 July, the day that would have been Hugo Chávez's 70th birthday,[124] with filing of candidacies taking place from 21 to 25 March[125] and campaigning from 4 to 25 July.[126] On 2 April, Delcy Rodríguez presented the Law against Fascism, Neofascism and Similar Expressions to the V National Assembly of Venezuela, controlled by the Maduro administration;[127][128] it passed its first reading that day.[129][130] The law, which would need a second hearing, would create penalties including increased sentences for organizations that promote what Maduro's government defines as fascism;[131][132][133] critics say it would be used to limit opposition to Maduro's government ahead of the July election.[129][132][133][134][135]

Negotiations with United States

Direct talks between senior Venezuelan and United States officials that had been stalled since mid-April were restarted in early July, a few weeks prior to the election.[136][137] In 2023, the Biden administration had relaxed some sanctions on Venezuela based on Maduro being willing to hold free and fair elections.[138] According to The Washington Post, the US was willing to remove all sanctions if conditions were met, but the Maduro-controlled Venezuelan Supreme Court made Machado ineligible for the presidency in January 2024.[138] The opposition was not included in the negotiations. Former US ambassador to Venezuela Bill Brownfield stated that the US deal was "looser than it should have been" and "Maduro got, front-ended, all of the benefits he was supposed to get in exchange for promises to comply with in the future. He didn't comply, but he got the stuff he really wanted."[138] Several proposals to grant immunity to the loser of the election have been proposed; while the US restarted talks in the hope of furthering a fair election, the opposition held out "that a strong showing will force Maduro to the table".[138]

Possibilities of a Maduro exit deal

On 19 July 2024, Elliott Abrams, diplomat and former special representative of the Trump administration for Venezuela, suggested that the United States should offer amnesty to Nicolás Maduro so that he recognizes the victory of Edmundo González Urrutia in the presidential election.[139][140]

González expressed his willingness to negotiate a transfer of power with Maduro, which included not persecuting his party and giving it a place in the National Assembly.[141]

"In a scenario where Maduro does not win the election, the U.S. stands ready to support a peaceful, negotiated post-election period and consider measures that would facilitate a peaceful transition of power," according to a senior Biden administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity.[141]

Electoral process

The President of Venezuela is elected by plurality in a single round of voting.[142] On 5 March 2024, the National Electoral Council in Venezuela called the presidential election for 28 July 2024, also announcing events and dates on the electoral schedule:[143]

N.º Event Dates Status
Start End
1 Call for the process 5 March 2024 Finished
2 Special registration day for the Electoral Registry 18 March 2024 16 April 2024 Finished
3 Selection of members of subordinate organizations 20 March 2024 Finished
4 Registration of candidates for the presidency 21 March 2024 25 March 2024 Finished
5 Electoral Registration Court 16 April 2024 Finished
6 Election campaigning 4 July 2024 25 July 2024 Finished
7 Presidential election 28 July 2024 Finished

Venezuelan elections are overseen by the National Electoral Council (CNE), with poll workers drafted via a lottery of registered voters. Polling places are equipped with multiple high-tech touch-screen DRE voting machines, one to a "mesa electoral", or voting "table". After the vote is cast, each machine prints out a paper ballot, also known as a Voter-verified paper audit trail, which is inspected by the voter and deposited in a ballot box belonging to the machine's table. The voting machines perform in a stand-alone fashion, disconnected from any network until the polls close.[144][145] Voting session closure at each of the voting stations in a given polling center is determined either by the lack of further voters after the lines have emptied, or by the hour, at the discretion of the president of the voting table.[citation needed]

Poll witnesses

Venezuelan law provides for representatives of the opposition to observe at each voting place; anyone can witness the electoral process.[146] Each machine prints tally sheets (actas de escrutinio or actas[147]) after the polls close, showing how many votes were received by each candidate, and representatives of the parties receive a copy.[145] After the secretary of the voting table and the witnesses accredited by the CNE agree that the acta tally matches the paper receipts in the ballot boxes, they sign the acta, which is transmitted to the CNE and signed copies are given to the witnesses.[146][147] CNE typically posts counts, but not images of the tally sheets.[145]

Anticipating fraud in the vote tally, Lester Toledo, a strategist for the opposition, told the Miami Herald that the opposition coordinated for several months before the election to arrange 600,000 volunteers into "command" groups of 10 (comanditos) to include "witnesses for each voting machine, lookouts outside the centers to ensure everything ran smoothly and monitors who made sure the actas were printed and then taken to outside locations to be scanned and, ultimately, uploaded to a centralized cloud". Volunteers scanned and uploaded 24,576 actas and tallied the votes by using the QR codes printed on each one.[148]

Following the election, the opposition published a database and searchable website with images of the tally sheets, which registered voters can check[7][11][12] and which they have provided to international observers. Parties and governments disputing the government results have urged CNE to produce the tally sheets to verify its count.[145]

As part of the election administration the National Electoral Council planned a post-election audit of 54% of polling places, comparing the electronic records with the paper trail.[citation needed]

Number of voters and voting stations

The first issue[when?] of the Electoral Gazette reported that Venezuela's Electoral Registry had 21,010,514 registered voters. Of these, 20,675,478 were in Venezuela, 107,836 were abroad, and 227,200 were foreign citizens in the country. The NGO Súmate noted a decline in registered voters over the past six publications in 2021 and 2022, with 84,115 fewer voters since the last publication. They also highlighted that 53,991 voters had objections and couldn't vote, urging them to check their status on the Electoral Council's website and file a claim if necessary.[149]

On election day, 15,767 poll stations had been set up by 08:20 local time, which amounted to 95% of the total, according to CNE.[150][151]

Sample ballot

Ballot for the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election.[152]

Observers

There were very few international election observers.[153][154]

Carter Center

On 20 June 2024, the Carter Center agreed to send observers in response to concerns about the lack of sufficient independent monitors, which could undermine the legitimacy of the election results.[155] The Carter Center sent only "small technical team", according to the BBC[153] of 17 experts to 4 cities.[156]

Following the election, the Carter Center stated that there was a "complete lack of transparency" and that the election "did not meet international standards", "cannot be considered democratic", and had occurred in "an environment of restricted freedoms" and "clear bias" from electoral authorities; they could not verify the results from the electoral authority.[156][157]

United Nations

On 25 June 2024, the United Nations announced that it would send four monitors, following the opposition's refusal to sign an agreement recognizing the presidential vote's results. The UN team would independently produce a confidential report for the Secretary-General of the United Nations, including recommendations for future elections in Venezuela.[158][153]

European Union

On 28 May 2024, the CNE revoked its invitation for observers from the European Union to monitor the election, citing existing sanctions against Elvis Amoroso, the head of the CNE and a Maduro ally.[153][159]

After the European Parliament passed a resolution condemning the political disqualification of opposition pre-candidate María Corina Machado, the president of the pro-government National Assembly, Jorge Rodríguez, declared on 13 July 2023 that the Venezuelan government would not allow a European Union electoral observation mission.[160][161][162]

Argentina and Brazil

On 17 July 2024, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) of Brazil, which had previously rejected an invitation from Maduro's government to send observers to the election, announced a reversal of its decision, stating that it would send two observers. The TSE later informed Brazil's Ministry of Foreign Affairs that it would dispatch Sandra Damiani, director of the TSE's Electoral Management Advisory, and José de Melo Cruz, head of the Electoral Systems Coordination.[163]

On 22 July 2024, Brazilian President Lula da Silva stated:

If Maduro wants to contribute for growth to return to Venezuela, for people who left Venezuela to come back and to establish a state of economic growth, he needs to respect the democratic process.

Lula, who had previously refused to openly criticize Maduro, said he would send former foreign minister Celso Amorim to watch the election.[164]

On 24 July 2024, TSE announced it would no longer send observers to the election in light of statements by Maduro in which, without proof, he accused the Brazilian electoral system of not being auditable.[165][166]. Despite this, Celso Amorim's visit went on as planned, and he was welcomed to Palacio Miraflores by the Venezuelan government.[167]

Alberto Fernández, former president of Argentina, was uninvited to observe after agreeing with Lula.[153][168]

Other countries

Officials from Spain (ten members of its parliament), Portugal,[169] and Colombia (senator Angelica Lozano) said they were denied entry to Venezuela days before the election.[170]

A Copa Airlines flight from Panama[171] bound for Caracas the day before the vote with former presidents Mireya Moscoso (Panama), Miguel Angel Rodriguez (Costa Rica), Jorge Quiroga (Bolivia) and Vicente Fox (Mexico), as well as Marta Lucia Ramirez (former Colombian vice president), was unable to depart Panama until the former officials deplaned.[170][172][173]

Chilean Senators Felipe Kast and Rojo Edwards were also deported by Venezuelan authorities a day after arriving to observe the vote.[174] Francisco Paoltroni [es], president of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Argentine Senate, invited by the opposition for the election, was also deported from Venezuela.[175] Former Mayor of Bogotá, Claudia López, was also expelled from Venezuela after arriving to observe the election.[176]

On 27 July 2024, Uruguayan deputy Pablo Viana was deported from Venezuela after being invited by the opposition to attend the election.[177]

Candidates

The Great Simón Bolívar Patriotic Pole

On 16 March 2024, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) formally announced that incumbent President Nicolás Maduro would be their candidate to run in the presidential election. This will be Maduro's third run for a six-year term as president.[178] Maduro officially registered his candidacy on 25 March.[179]

Unitary Platform

On 16 May 2023, the Unitary Platform announced the holding of a primary process to elect a single candidate for the presidential election, the 2023 Unitary Platform presidential primaries. On 24 July 2023, the application period ended, in which 14 candidates registered. After the primary election was held on 22 October 2023, a first bulletin was released with only 26% counted and the winner was María Corina Machado, sweeping more than 90% of the vote. On 23 October, the second electoral bulletin of the National Primary Commission was delivered, where it was announced that with 92.65% counted, Corina Machado maintained more than 90% of the votes and was determined to be the candidate for the Unitary Platform for the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election.[180]

On 22 March 2024, María Corina Machado announced that historian and professor Corina Yoris was selected as the presidential candidate of the Venezuelan opposition due to Machado's disqualification.[181]

Yoris was unable to officially register as a candidate in the presidential election, with Unitary Platform representatives saying that the electoral commission had blocked her registration. Following outcry from countries including the US, Brazil, Colombia, and Guatemala the Unitary Platform registered former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia as its temporary candidate pending the selection of another one.[182] On 19 April 2024, the Unitary Platform voted, alongside the cooperation of aspiring candidate Governor Manuel Rosales, to have González Urrutia be the only candidate that represents the Venezuelan opposition. Rosales accepted this result, leaving González Urrutia to be the official opposition candidate for the July election.[183]

A New Era

Governor Manuel Rosales officially inscribed and launched his candidacy for president "at the last minute"—a move that took the Unitary Platform by surprise, though he indicated he would cede his position to a unified opposition candidate.[184] Rosales has been recognized as a more moderate opposition candidate and has been negotiable with the Maduro government; he recognized Maduro's contested 2018 election and condemned sanctions on Venezuela enacted by the United States.[185]

On 19 April 2024, A New Era and the Unitary Platform announced that, after a unanimous vote, Rosales would withdraw from the race and endorse Edmundo González.[186]

Democratic Alliance

At the moment, the Democratic Alliance, which has stated that it would not participate in the Unitary Platform's primary process, has not yet said by which means it will elect its candidate. Nonetheless, they have expressed their intentions for their nominee to be the sole candidate of the opposition.[187][188][189]

On 22 April 2024, Juan Carlos Alvarado pulled out of the race to support Luis Eduardo Martínez.[190] Martínez stated that if elected, he would appoint Alvarado as vice president.[191]

Major candidates

Candidate Party and Coalition Ref.
Edmundo González Urrutia Independent
Unitary Platform
Slogan: Edmundo for the world!
[192][193]
Nicolás Maduro United Socialist Party of Venezuela
Great Patriotic Pole
Slogan: #ElQueVaEsNicolás
[194]

Other candidates

During the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, eleven candidates without significant representation were registered following the Maduro administration's veto of opposition candidates María Corina Machado and Corina Yoris.[195] Chavismo in Venezuela allowed the registration of candidates considered to be collaborators, false opposition, and politicians aligned with the Bolivarian strategy for the July 2024 presidential election, while blocking genuine opposition candidates.[196]

Among these candidates are individuals with ties to Chavismo and diverse figures such as a comedian and an evangelical pastor.[195] Luis Eduardo Martínez, a deputy for Acción Democrática (AD), has held positions as governor and councilor.[195] Daniel Ceballos [es], former mayor of San Cristóbal and former member of the opposition student movement, has been favored by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ).[195] Antonio Ecarri [es], with a background in education and public management, has declined multiple candidacies in his political career.[195] Juan Carlos Alvarado, current Secretary-General of COPEI, was appointed by the TSJ and has validated the Chavismo's control of the Parliament.[195] Benjamín Rausseo, a comedian and businessman known as "Er Conde del Guácharo", has made previous attempts for public office. Javier Bertucci, an evangelical pastor and deputy, has a criminal record related to diesel smuggling. José Brito, a former member of Primero Justicia, has been accused of corruption and collaborating with the administration to prevent the re-election of Juan Guaidó.[195] Claudio Fermín, with extensive political experience and positions in the Executive Branch, has been an unsuccessful presidential candidate several times. Luis Ratti, a businessman and preacher, requested the suspension of opposition primaries. Enrique Márquez, a former rector of the National Electoral Council (CNE), has held seats in the National Assembly and served as its vice president (2016-2017, after the electoral victory of the opposition). Finally, Manuel Rosales, current governor of Zulia and member of Un Nuevo Tiempo, has a history of confrontation and collaboration with Chavismo, having been a presidential candidate in 2006 and faced accusations of illicit enrichment.[195]

Candidate Party and/or Coalition Ref.
Luis Eduardo Martínez Democratic Action
Slogan: United we live better
[197]
José Brito Venezuela First [198]
Antonio Ecarri Angola [es] Pencil Alliance [199][200]
Enrique Márquez CENTRADOS
Benjamín Rausseo National Democratic Confederation (CONDE)

Slogan: With Rausseo, I stand up!

[201][202]
Javier Bertucci EL CAMBIO

Slogan: Yes, there is hope!

Claudio Fermín Solutions for Venezuela
Daniel Ceballos AREPA

Conduct and irregularities

Disqualification of political parties

On 17 March, the CNE disqualified 16 political parties from nominating candidates in the presidential election, after not reaching 1% of the minimum votes in the 2021 Venezuelan regional elections, without offering a validation or repair process required by electoral law. The parties disqualified included:[203][204] Adelante, Centrados, Única, National Convergence, Suma País, Encuentro Ciudadano, Generación Independiente (Gente), Partido Unión y Entendimiento (Puente), Movimiento al Socialismo (Venezuela) (MAS), Fuerza del Cambio (FDC), Nueva Visión para mi País (Nuvipa), Unidad Política Popular 89 (UPP-89), Unión y Progreso (Venezuela), Prociudadanos (LPC), Compromiso País (Compa).

Blocking of the CNE portal

Following the end of the registration period for candidates on 25 March, María Corina Machado said the next day that the Unitary Platform was prevented from registering Corina Yoris's candidacy, while Manuel Rosales said that he did not represent the Unitary Platform.[205] Shortly afterwards, the CNE, following international pressure, authorized a 12-hour extension to register candidates, which enabled the Unitary Platform card to provisionally register its candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia.[206]

Issues in overseas voter registration and voting

The special day for voter registration abroad was marred by delays in the process of up to five days, as occurred in Spain, Argentina, Peru and Chile. Citizens complained that they were not able to register or update their data. The head of the negotiating delegation of the Unitary Platform, Gerardo Blyde, said the government was unwilling to guarantee the participation of Venezuelans abroad.[207]

The requirements for voters to register abroad are very restrictive and not contemplated in the constitution. Requirements included a current passport (one of the most expensive in the world to obtain) and having permanent residence; the majority have the PTP (Temporary Permission to Stay) or PPT (Permission for Temporary Protection) and do not have residence, consequently, very few are registered.[207]

On 16 April, registration and updating of the Electoral Registry of Venezuela concluded. With approximately 7.7 million Venezuelans abroad, 80% of whom have the right to vote, the CNE only authorized some consulates to hold registration; many Venezuelans could not register because there was no authorized consulate or it was very far from their location. In many of the consulates, delays were observed and the CNE registered little political interest in solving the problem; the majority of voters abroad register an opposition tendency.[208] David Smolansky, former mayor of El Hatillo, accused the administration of blocking the registration of at least 4.5 million Venezuelans abroad through "a policy of systematic and generalized discrimination" as well as its "requirements to register and change residence address" that led to "queues at the consulates".[209]

According to a preliminary report on 2 May from the CNE, of the almost 7.7 million Venezuelans abroad, only 69,189 will be able to vote, of which only 6,020 citizens abroad managed to change their voting center in Venezuela to the country where they reside. The number of new people registered to vote abroad was negligible due to the number of requirements imposed by the CNE and the Foreign Ministry: in Mexico 69 people managed to register as new voters, in Spain 97, in Argentina 27; in Colombia only 25; in Ecuador 13 and in Peru only six. The exact number of citizens able to vote is 21,402,220 citizens, of which only 69,189 will be able to do so outside the country.[210][211]

In mid-June the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) demanded that Venezuela "adopt the necessary measures" to guarantee the right to vote for compatriots abroad for the presidential elections. He reiterated that "a genuine commitment to democracy requires that the State immediately reestablish the separation and independence of public powers".[212]

Harassment, intimidation and other irregularities

Along with the issues in overseas voter registration and voting that "effectively disenfranchised most of the migrant population", the Carter Center listed other problems with the electoral process. Checkpoints were placed near polling stations to intimidate voters. Individuals and companies providing services to the opposition were harassed and intimidated. Registration of the political parties of the opposition were changed to pro-Maduro leadership. The Maduro campaign frequently used government vehicles and social programs to promote their campaign.[146][157]

The New York Times stated that irregularities on election day throughout the country "provoked fury". Intimidation of voters with violence and threats, and by state forces, included an example in Cumaná, where dozens of armed authorities lined up at a polling station. In one city, voters reported that government security forced tried to replace designated witnesses with their own personnel. The Venezuelan Electoral Observatory said that 17,000 voters found their polling place changed at the last minute; a New York Times reporter was detained after trying to enter an unofficial polling place. Voting centers stayed open past the required closing time to allow Maduro supporters to round up more votes. Some voting centers refused to print the vote tallies as required by law.[213]

According to Toledo, as the polls were about to close, "he received reports from about 90% of the volunteers that the government had ordered election workers to not print the actas. But after a tense period of back-and-forth, soldiers with the national guard allowed most volunteers to take the actas home anyway."[148] Inside the CNE as the machine vote tallies were being received, the two witnesses from the opposition were denied entry, and according to the Miami Herald, "Enrique Marquez, one of a handful of presidential candidates, said his own campaign monitor was allowed in the room and reported that the Council did not print the results of the election."[148]

CNE rectors

In August 2023, the NGO Súmate denounced that at least 92 candidates for rectors of the CNE were linked to Chavismo, pointing out that article 9 of the Organic Law of Electoral Processes prohibits members of the Council to have any political affiliation. Sumate also stated that one of the nominees had been convicted for homicide and extortion in 1998, that 46 candidates repeated the candidacy after running in 2021 and that by that time they were deputies of the pro-government National Assembly.[214] On 15 August, the pro-government National Assembly declared itself in permanent session to appoint the new CNE rectors.[215]

Censorship

TechRadar reported that websites, including Wikipedia and voting information websites, were blocked in Venezuela beginning on 28 July.[216]

Endorsements

González

Venezuelan officials and politicians
Notable individuals
Political parties

Maduro

Venezuelan officials and politicians
Political parties
Notable individuals
International politicians

Other

Luis Eduardo Martínez was endorsed by Juan Carlos Alvarado, Deputy to the National Assembly;[261] Luis Ratti, former independent candidate for president;[261] and the political parties Democratic Action (minority faction), COPEI (minority faction) and Red Flag (minority faction).[citation needed]

Antonio Ecarri was endorsed by political parties Neighborhood Force (partial);[citation needed] Alianza del Lápiz [es];[citation needed] Progressive Advance (intervened by the National Electoral Council);[262] and Cambiemos Movimiento Ciudadano.[citation needed]

Enrique Márquez was endorsed by the Communist Party of Venezuela[263] and the Networks Party.[citation needed]

Polling

As of July 2024, most polls favored González Urrutia to win by a wide margin, particularly among higher-quality polls.[264][265][266][267][268][269][270]

An exit poll by Edison Research which – according to The Guardian – "conducts high-profile election polling in the US and other countries", gave González 65% of the vote and Maduro 31%.[271][272]

Alleged manipulation of polls

During the run-up to the election, several news outlets reported on the proliferation of polls favoring Maduro published since May 2024 by previously unknown polling firms,[273][273][274][275] fuelling concerns that some polls were being used as propaganda tools by Chavismo.[276] These poll results differed significantly from those published by more traditional pollsters, which showed Maduro trailing.[274]

According to Medianálisis, Efecto Cocuyo, Cazadores de Fake News and Probox, working with the Latin American Center for Investigative Journalism, these polls were being used to discredit opposition candidates[275] in what some outlets called a "poll war".[274] Polls showing Maduro ahead were predominantly disseminated by media outlets claimed to be pro-Maduro, such as Globovisión, El Universal, Venezuela News [es], Correo del Orinoco and NotiTarde.[277]

Six pollsters consistently placed opposition candidate González in first place, while others placed Maduro in front. Well-known pollsters in the Venezuelan political sphere, such as Datanálisis, Datincorp, Delphos, and Consultores 21, along with the emerging Poder y Estrategia, indicated that Urrutia had more than 50% of voting intentions.[276] Results by lesser-known firms Hinterlaces, ICS Latam, IMC Orientación, and DataViva, among others, showed Maduro with between 54% and 70% of votes.[276] Results by CECA Consultores showed a technical tie slightly favoring the opposition.[276]

On 28 May, Colombian newspaper El Tiempo named IdeaDatos and Data Viva as examples of suspicious pollsters.[273] NTN 24 singled out Insight in June 2024, writing that "Eight of ten [recent] polls give the winner to the opposition candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, and the only two that give victory to ... Maduro, are unknown firms and their social media accounts are recent", adding that IdeaDatos and PoliAnalítico "actively campaign for Nicolás Maduro".[274][278]

Venezuelan independent journalism website Efecto Cocuyo published several detailed exposés of pollsters, alleging faulty methodology, systematic bias in favor of Maduro, and repeated dissemination of their polls by pro-Maduro outlets. Polling firms alleged to be unreliable include IdeaDatos, CMIDE, Parametrica, Hinterlaces, IMC Orientación, and ICS Latam.[279][280][281]

Hinterlaces

Efecto Cocuyo analyzed an April 2024 poll by Hinterlaces and concluded that its methodology was inconsistent, citing contradictory dates, a small sample size, high number of undecided voters, and very high margin of error.[282][280] The poll results were published on website Fuser News, alleged by Efecto Cocuyo to be disseminators of Russian, Iranian, Chinese and Venezuelan state propaganda,[283] and also by Telesur, a state-controlled Venezuelan media company.[citation needed]

Univision

Univision announced in June 2024 that it was investigating the publication by an unauthorized user of inaccurate polling data on its website.[284][285]

After the official confirmation of candidates

Pollster Date Sample size Nicolás Maduro
PSUV (incumbent)
Edmundo González
Independent-Unitary Platform
Luis Martínez
Democratic Action
Antonio Ecarri
Alianza del Lápiz [es]
Benjamín Rausseo
Independent-CONDE
Claudio Fermin
Solutions For Venezuela
Javier Bertucci
EL CAMBIO
José Brito
Venezuela First
Daniel Ceballos
AREPA
Enrique Márquez
CENTRADOS
Others Undecided None/Not voting
(Exit Poll)

Edison Research[271]

28 July 2024 6,846 31% 65%
(Exit Poll)

Meganálisis[286]

28 July 2024 14% 65%
28 July 2024 Presidential election
25 July 2024 End of the electoral campaigns
21 July 2024 Closing of the legal period for polling
Poder y Estrategia[287] 15 – 20 July 2024 1,100 21% 64% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% - 6% -
Hercon Consultores[288][better source needed] 19 July 2024 1,200 29.8% 63.3% 0.8% 1.2% 1.5% - 0.6% - - - 0.5% 2.3% -
4 July 2024 Start of the electoral campaigns
Hercon Consultores[289] 20 June – 3 July 2024 1,200 28.1% 62.1% 0.6% 1.3% 2.6% - 0.5% - - - 0.4% 1.5% 3%
ORC Consultores[290] 22 – 28 June 2024 1,177 14.5% 58.6% - - - - - - - - 4.3% 22.6%
Meganalisis[291][better source needed] 17 – 22 June 2024 1,123 11.3% 68.4% - 1.8% 0.7% - 1.5% - - 0.2% 0.6% 8.3% 7.2%
Hinterlaces[292][293] 14 June 2024 1,200 55.6% 22.1% 0.7% 1.5% 5.6% 2.6% 1.1% 1% 1.4% 0.6% - 8% -
Hercon Consultores[294] 10 June 2024 1,000 24.1% 61.1% 0.8% 2.8% 4.5% - 0.7% - - - 1% 2.5% 2.5%
Mass Behavior Research[295][better source needed] 3 – 5 June 2024 1,315 24% 58% - 3% 2% 1% 1% - - - 2% 3% 7%
Meganalisis[296][better source needed] 16 – 23 May 2024 1,116 9.8% 61.1% - 1.1% 0.9% - 1.3% - - 0.3% 0.7% 16.7% 8.1%
Mass Behavior Research[297][better source needed] 20 – 22 May 2024 1,259 21% 58% 1% 4% 1.4% 2.6%% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 0.4% - 2% 6%
Mass Behavior Research[citation needed] 6 – 8 May 2024 1,441 19% 57% 0.5% 7% 0.2% 3% 2% 0.01% 0.09% 0.2% - 3% 8%
Hercon Consultores[citation needed] 3 May 2024 1,000 22.5% 58.8% 2% 3.1% - - - - - - 1.2% 2.2% 10.2%
Consultores 21[298] 23 April – 2 May 2024 1,004 32% 50% - 5% 13% - 11% - - 4% - - -
Datincorp[299][better source needed] 28 April 2024 1,000 20% 62% - - - - - - - - 9% 9%
Meganalisis[citation needed] 25 – 28 April 2024 1,000 23.5% 68.1% - 1.9% 2.3% - - - - - 4.2% 52.4%
Mass Behavior Research[300][better source needed] 21 – 23 April 2024 1,311 18% 55% 1% 5% 0.25% 4% 2% 0.10% 0.15% 0.5% - 5% 9%
Meganalisis[301][vague] 21 – 23 April 2024 1,009 11.2% 32.4% - 0.9% 1.1% - - - - - 2.0% 33.1% 19.3%
More Consulting[302] 19 April 2024 - 21.6% 45.8% - - - - - - - - - - -

Before the official confirmation of candidates

Pollster Date Margin of error Sample size Nicolás Maduro
PSUV
Great Patriotic Pole(incumbent)
María Corina Machado (disq.)
Unitary Platform
Corina Yoris
(ineligible)
Unitary Platform
Edmundo González Unitary Platform Benjamín Rausseo
Independent
Manuel Rosales
A New Era
Henrique Capriles
Justice First
Juan Guaidó
Popular Will
Others Undecided None/Not voting
22 April 2024 Luis Ratti and Juan Carlos Alvarado withdraw from the presidential race, endorse Luis Eduardo Martínez
19 April 2024 Manuel Rosales withdraws from the presidential race, endorses Edmundo González. Machado and Yoris also endorse González
Meganalisis[303] 2-7 April 2024 3.43% 1,002 13.2% - - - 1.3% 5.8% - - 2.9% 14.7% 62.1%
10.4% - 37.9% - 1.4% 2.5% - - 3.4% 27.2% 17.2%
9.4% 70.8% - - 1.2% 2.2% - - 2.2% 5.1% 9.1%
27 March 2024 The Unitary Platform registers Edmundo González Urrutia as a temporary candidate
26 March 2024 The National Electoral Council prevents Corina Yoris from registering as presidential candidate. Manuel Rosales registers
22 March 2024 María Corina Machado announces that Corina Yoris will take Machado's place as the nominee of the Unitary Platform
Meganalisis[301] 7-13 March 2024 3.41% 1,010 7.4% 69.1% - 0.8% - - - 1.3% 12.8% 8.6%
Datincorp[304] 25 February 2024 2.83% 1,200 13.92% 55% - 4.83% - - - 3.25% 8.58% 14.92%
26 January 2024 The Supreme Tribunal of Justice of Venezuela upholds the ban of Maria Corina Machado, disqualifying her
Hinterlaces[305][unreliable source?] January 2024 3% 1,200 55% 21% 24%
Meganalisis[301] 22-31 January 2024 1,029 7.9% 71.80% - 0.9% - - - 1.0% 10.3% 8.1%
Hinterlaces[306][unreliable source?] November 2023 3% 1,200 63% 18% 9% 10%
Meganalisis[307] 24-28 November 2023 N/A 896 7.90% 72.70% - 0.6% - - - 0.1% 10.2% 8.4%
22 October 2023 Maria Corina Machado wins the 2023 Unitary Platform presidential primaries
Meganalisis[308] 31 July 2023 N/A 1,013 12.10% 50.10% - 0.9% - - - 0.1% 23.9% 12.9%
Meganalisis[308] 31 July 2023 N/A 1,013 11.50% 32.88% - - - 4.41% - 13.01% 24.65% 13.55%
30 June 2023 Venezuela's controller general bars María Corina Machado from running for political office for 15 years
Meganalisis 30 June 2023 N/A 1,011 6.90% 31.50% - - - 5.51% - 1.21% 25.23%
Datincorp[309] 5 February 2023 N/A 1,192 15.69% 16.86% - 11.91% 9.23% 6.8% 2.27% 5.7% 7.47% 24.08%

By party affiliation

Pollster Date Margin of error Sample Size Great Patriotic Pole (Chavismo) Unitary Platform Other Undecided Not voting
Hinterlaces[310][unreliable source?] June 2024 3% 1,200 53.2% 14.3% 20.6% 11.9% -
Datincorp[311] 25 February 2024 N/A 1,198 14.4% 53% - 11% 21.5%
Hinterlaces[312][unreliable source?] November 2023 3% 1,200 63% 18% 9% --
Meganalisis[308] 31 July 2023 - 1,013 11.5% 76.1% - 12.4% N/A
Hinterlaces[306][unreliable source?] November 2023 3% 1,200 47% 18% 35%
Consultores 21[313] 29 March 2023 - 1,500 25.4% 55.1% - 10.3% 9.2%
Hercon Consultores[314] 3 February 2023 - 1,000 17.2% 20.1% - 62.7% N/A

Results

Political scientist Steven Levitsky called the vote “one of the most egregious electoral frauds in modern Latin American history.”[23]

According to The New York Times, "Maduro was declared the winner in a presidential vote ... marred by irregularities"; these irregularities included "polling places [that] refused to release paper tallies of the electronic vote count, and ... widespread reports of fraud and voter intimidation", results that varied "wildly" from public opinion polls and voting center samples, "major irregularities and problems at those voting centers", and blocking of legal monitors from polling places.[315][316]

On 29 July 2024, opposition groups stated that they would publish the detailed electoral results in the form of image files and other digital formats[7]: 21  on a website resultadospresidencialesvenezuela2024.com[11] where registered voters can check the results for their place of voting. According to La Patilla, Venezuelan authorities blocked access to the server on Venezuelan internet providers. La Patilla recommended the use of VPNs for accessing the website.[12] The opposition reported that, on 31 July, more than 44 website attacks were prevented, with more than 32 million users consulting the database in 24 hours.[317]

Parallel vote tabulation

In the AltaVista PVT project with a preregistered statistical sampling method of parallel vote tabulation,[318] a team of statisticians applied their method by photographing results from 997 polling stations and inferring the national vote shares. They found 66.1% for González and 31.4% for Maduro, each with an error margin of 0.5%. The participation rate was estimated as 60.1%.[319][320]

Results announced by the PUD

Results by state announced by the PUD
Results by municipality announced by the PUD

A database which allowed Venezuelans to use their national identity card to verify vote tallies was released by the PUD on 30 July, which they said reflected 73% of the votes cast. The database shows scans of the vote tally sheets, with votes cast for each candidate at each voting place gathered during the electoral process. As of 30 July, the government had not released a similar accounting, which the Carter Center said was needed.[13][145]

81.70% reporting
CandidateParty or allianceVotes%
Edmundo GonzálezUnitary PlatformIndependent7,156,46267.14
Nicolás MaduroGreat Patriotic PolePSUV3,241,46130.41
Javier BertucciHope for Change261,2052.45
Benjamín RausseoNational Democratic Confederation
Antonio EcarriPencil Alliance
Claudio FermínSolutions for Venezuela
José BritoVenezuela First
Luis Eduardo MartínezDemocratic Action
Daniel CeballosCountry Renewal and Hope Assembly
Enrique MárquezCentrados en la Gente
Total10,659,128100.00
Valid votes10,659,12899.83
Invalid/blank votes18,1590.17
Total votes10,677,287100.00
Registered voters/turnout17,777,95560.15
Source: https://resultadosconvzla.com
States won by Edmundo González (24)
States won by Nicolás Maduro (0)
State Edmundo González
Nicolás Maduro
Others Difference Blank/Null Total/Participation
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Amazonas 27,220 59.51 17,375 37.99 1,146 2.50 9,845 21.52 56 0.12 45,797 60.45
Anzoátegui 420,076 66.57 194,615 30.84 16,282 2.58 225,461 35.73 735 0.12 631,708 61.06
Apure 134,304 62.99 75,005 35.18 3,901 1.83 59,299 27.81 194 0.09 213,404 59.74
Aragua 487,938 67.51 212,296 29.37 22,554 3.12 275,642 38.14 921 0.13 723,709 60.07
Barinas 279,157 74.58 88,840 23.76 6,225 1.66 190,039 50.82 285 0.08 374,229 62.79
Bolívar 338,744 71.66 122,321 25.87 11,664 2.47 216,423 45.79 531 0.11 473,260 58.01
Carabobo 465,194 70.89 172,820 26.33 18,249 2.78 292,374 44.55 1,553 0.24 657,816 58.58
Cojedes 108,871 62.88 60,149 34.74 4,112 2.38 48,722 28.14 174 0.10 173,306 66.31
Delta Amacuro 29,541 53.32 24,534 44.28 1,331 2.40 5,007 9.04 61 0.11 55,467 55.49
Capital District 468,200 64.57 232,653 32.08 24,277 3.35 235,547 32.48 1,493 0.21 726,623 59.54
Falcón 294,993 70.77 112,610 27.02 9,228 2.21 182,383 43.75 1,010 0.24 417,841 61.3
Guárico 221,156 64.03 115,934 33.87 7,199 2.10 103,207 30.15 337 0.10 342,611 66.39
La Guaira 97,817 61.03 57,713 36.01 4,747 2.96 40,104 25.02 227 0.14 160,504 63.83
Lara 459,771 68.23 191,104 29.39 15,500 2.38 252,628 38.85 1,275 0.20 651,611 65.25
Mérida 303,664 76.95 84,410 21.39 6,533 1.66 219,254 55.56 1,421 0.36 396,028 63.1
Miranda 649,628 65.59 310,528 31.44 29,294 2.97 337,361 34.16 2,005 0.20 989,716 57.43
Monagas 201,689 60.40 125,364 37.54 6,861 2.06 76,325 22.86 334 0.10 334,248 60.88
Nueva Esparta 151,664 66.50 70,606 30.96 5,804 2.54 81,058 35.54 483 0.21 228,557 61.79
Portuguesa 281,236 64.10 147,539 33.65 9,860 2.25 133,503 30.45 2,671 0.61 441,112 68.57
Sucre 217,556 49.97 208,006 47.78 9,780 2.25 9,550 2.19 528 0.12 435,870 64.01
Táchira 399,267 81.94 79,445 16.31 8,547 1.75 319,822 65.63 455 0.09 487,714 57.54
Trujillo 222,093 63.94 119,877 34.51 5,357 1.54 102,216 29.43 312 0.09 347,639 63.45
Yaracuy 180,334 60.67 109,678 36.90 7,241 2.44 70,656 23.77 393 0.13 297,646 66.33
Zulia 730,852 69.52 292,397 29.04 14,443 1.44 407,523 40.48 705 0.07 1,007,465 51.43
Total 7,119,768 67.19 3,225,819 30.45 250,135 2.36 3,893,949 36.74 18,159 0.17 10,613,881 60.19
Source: https://resultadosconvzla.com . Vote count tally sheet scans


Results announced by the CNE

As of 30 July, the CNE had not released any tally sheets or voter data to support its results.[319][321] On both 31 July and 1 August, the CNE announced that it would release the second bulletin of the results.[322] On 2 August, the CNE announced a second bulletin of votes, still in favor of Maduro, but still without tally sheets or other polling station level details.[323] Jennie Lincoln, who headed the Carter Center observation of the election, rejected the results again as not being transparent, and stated that Venezuela was able to provide individual table tallies as they had done so in past elections.[324] The CNE's 29 July counts of 5,150,092 votes for Maduro, 4,445,978 votes for González, and 462,704 other votes, released on 29 July 2024, correspond, to a precision of 5 decimal places, to 51.20000%, 44.20000%, and 4.60000%, respectively.[14] The fact that the counts correspond to percentages with a sequence of zeros to such high precision was seen as highly improbable by Kiko Llaneras, a statistician writing in El País, and by mathematician Terence Tao, with a chance of one in 100 million of occcurring by chance.[325][15][326] This coincidence of such precise decimals did not repeat in the 2 August count of results published by the CNE, which tallied 6,408,844 votes (51.95%) for Maduro and for 5,326,101 votes (43.18%) González. [327]

96.87% reporting
CandidateParty or allianceVotes%
Nicolás MaduroGreat Patriotic PolePSUV6,408,84451.95
Edmundo GonzálezUnitary PlatformIndependent5,326,10443.18
Luis Eduardo MartínezDemocratic Action152,3601.24
Antonio EcarriPencil Alliance116,4210.94
Benjamín RausseoNational Democratic Confederation92,9030.75
José BritoVenezuela First84,2310.68
Javier BertucciHope for Change64,4520.52
Claudio FermínSolutions for Venezuela40,9020.33
Enrique MárquezCentrados en la Gente29,6110.24
Daniel CeballosCountry Renewal and Hope Assembly20,0560.16
Total12,335,884100.00
Registered voters/turnout21,392,46459
Source: ALBA[14][15][16][328]

Reactions

Independent observers have described the election results as arbitrary, even by Venezuelan standards, according to The Guardian.[329] On 30 July, the Carter Center issued a harsh rebuke of the election authorities,[156][330] stating there was a "complete lack of transparency" and that the election "cannot be considered democratic".[157]

Claims of fraud

According to El Espectador, the fact that the CNE's official vote counts of 29 July[14] correspond to percentages that have zeros in the second to fifth decimal places is a coincidence indicating fraud. Kiki Llaneras, writing in El País, estimated the chance of the coincidence as one in 100 million.[15] Infobae also saw the percentages as having values that were unlikely to occur by chance, which it said raised the suspicion of the CNE statement of the results.[16] Anne Applebaum wrote in The Atlantic on 31 July that "the election had been stolen".[319]

Opposition leaders, world leaders and observers have forcefully urged Maduro to make the vote tallies at the table level public. Rather than having the election authority (CNE) release the table-level results (as the opposition has), Maduro approached the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ – overwhelmingly "government loyalists") on 1 August, and according to the BBC, "took the unusual step" of asking the court to audit and approve the results; this process is "likely to be conducted behind closed doors" where only the TSJ members will see them. The Carter Center, anticipating this move, stated that "the TSJ is another government institution, appointed by the government ...  not an independent assessment".[146] This move always delays the process while giving the appearance of compliance.[146]

Domestic

Machado and González along with his wife, addressing the nation in front of the United Nations Development Programme office in Caracas, 2024

Supporting the PUD/González win announcement, María Corina Machado and Edmundo González rejected the results from the CNE and claimed victory.[331] On 31 July, Maduro alleged that the US was fomenting civil war in Venezuela.[332] González, at an event accompanied by Machado, said "The Venezuelans and the entire world know what happened ... Our struggle continues and we will not rest until the will of the Venezuelan people is respected".[331]

The Communist Party of Venezuela objected to the CNE announcement and called for the complete election results to be published.[333]

Supporting the CNE's announcement of his victory, Maduro described the result as "a triumph of peace and stability".[334] Candidates Benjamín Rausseo, Daniel Ceballos, Luis Eduardo Martínez and José Brito recognized the official results.[335] The latter three were nominated by intervened parties.[195]

International

The election results released by the government-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) were followed by a mixture of scepticism and criticism from the leaders of most Latin American countries. Some Latin American countries – including Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua – recognized and congratulated Maduro as the election winner.[18][17] World leaders predominantly expressed skepticism of the claimed results and did not recognize the CNE claims;[17][19][18] however, The Washington Post reported that "Russia, China, Iran and Cuba were among those to congratulate Maduro".[19]

International reactions to the results of the election
  Venezuela
  Recognize
  Do not recognize/Asks for verification
  EU rejection without national response
  Not stated

President Gabriel Boric of Chile was the first foreign leader to question the CNE result, stating that the "results are difficult to believe".[336] President Daniel Noboa of Ecuador warned that "that is the danger of dictatorship, and today we are witnessing how one more of them tries to take hope away from millions of Venezuelans."[18] Condemnation from some countries, including Costa Rica, El Salvador, Peru and Uruguay described the CNE result in terms of fraud or corruption.[18][17][336] Harsh criticism came from President Javier Milei of Argentina, who called Maduro a dictator.[18][337]

The three leftist presidents of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico[319][338][339] were quick in demanding that all votes be counted, along with full transparency of all ballot records from each precinct.[340] Mexico and Colombia rejected the results and called for transparency and verification.[2][18] The Colombian government called for the "total vote count, its verification and independent audit to be carried out as soon as possible".[18] President Luís Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil called the controversy a "normal" process, but asked for the release of the total vote tally.[341] President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico said on 30 July that the vote tallies should be publicized, but he saw no evidence of fraud.[342] On 1 August, the three presidents released a joint statement of concern over post-election violence, and asking for "impartial verification of results"[339] quickly, at the disaggregated level.[343]

The day after the election, nine Latin American countries (Argentina, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay[344][345]) called for an emergency meeting of the Organization of American States (OAS), for 31 July.[346][347] The member states did not reach consensus on a resolution.[348][349] OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro – referencing the ongoing investigation in the International Criminal Court (ICC) of Venezuela for crimes against humanity – said he would petition the ICC for the arrest of Maduro. Prior to the election, Maduro had stated that if he did not win, there would be a "bloodbath, a civil war"; Almagro said Maduro was fulfilling that promise and it was time for justice.[350]

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed doubts about the veracity of the results from the CNE[18] and Biden administration officials, speaking anonymously to Reuters, said that Maduro's reported victory lacked credibility.[351] President Biden called President Lula on 30 July to discuss the election; the two leaders agreed to press for transparent vote tallies.[352] On 1 August, Blinken said there was "overwhelming evidence" that González won[353] and called for talks and a peaceful transition.[332][a]

The first country to recognize González as Venezuela's president-elect was Peru, on 30 July;[20] the United States, on 1 August;[21] followed by Argentina on 2 August.[22]

Aftermath

Protests

Protesters took to the streets of Caracas one day after the CNE results

Venezuelan citizens who considered the results to be fraudulent took to the streets to protest.[356][357][358] As of 31 July, at least 16 people have been killed during protests nationwide.[359] Demonstrators also pulled down statues of Maduro's predecessor, Hugo Chávez.[360]

According to Infobae a "forceful statement following the electoral fraud in Venezuela and the criminalization of protests" was published on 1 August by Amnesty International in a joint statement with ten other human rights organizations that "condemned the repressive actions of the Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela and demanded that it guarantee the right to protest and full respect for the rights to life, personal integrity and freedom".[361][362]

Crackdown

In a crackdown by Maduro security forces following the elections,[359][363] at least 1,200 people have been arrested as of 1 August.[343] A campaign worker for the opposition told The Washington Post that "security forces and the Maduro-supporting bikers known as colectivos appear to be targeting low-income areas that have previously been strongholds of government support".[359]

Maduro personally encouraged individuals to report those protesting the CNE election result through an internet application, VenApp.[359] According to The Washington Post, "human rights advocates warned that [the app] could be repurposed" when it was created to report medical emergencies.[359] Maduro stated: "We're opening a new page in the app for all the Venezuelan population, so they can confidentially give me all the information about the delinquents who have threatened the people — attacked the people — so we can go after them and bring them to prompt justice."[359] Following a flood of complaints, the app is no longer found on Google and Apple stores because of the harassment potential. Another internet page created by the government allows users to post media of protesters where they can be identified by other users.[359] As of 1 August, another 1,000 individuals are being sought for arrest.[343] On 2 August, Vente Venezuela said its offices in Caracas were attacked by six armed individuals who ransacked the premises.[364]

Allegations of persecution of poll watchers

Opposition leaders said that citizens who witnessed the vote tally sheets in the electoral process (poll watchers) were persecuted and detained.[359] The CNE had their contact data; Maduro accused them of being guerillas, according to NTN 24.[365] Many poll watchers reportedly have "fled their homes in fear".[359]

Charges and arrests of politicians

Freddy Superlano, the national coordinator for Voluntad Popular, was detained two days after the election.[13][363][366] A video of his detention by masked men was published by Brazilian outlet Poder360 and,[367] without revealing Superlano's whereabouts, Diosdado Cabello confirmed 30 hours later that he had been arrested and "was speaking very well" in detention.[368] Cabello did not reveal why Superlano, his assistant and driver were detained, but hours before he had announced that the arrest of ten opposition leaders was planned.[368] Representatives of Superlano's party said they were told by chavista informants that the intent was to torture Superlano and "make him confess to the false plan set up by regime spokesmen such as Tarek William Saab"; they requested the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights intervene.[369][370]

Regarding accusations by Saab of an orchestrated cyberattack during the election originating in North Macedonia,[371] Stefan Andonovski, Minister of Digital Transformation for North Macedonia, stated that "this is a socialist regime that for years has often leaked information not supported by evidence and accuses interested parties and states that have no responsibility in such cases."[369]

The same day that Superlano was detained, Ricardo Estévez, an advisor with Vente Venezuela for the González Urrutia campaign, was taken from his residence by armed men from two unmarked cars, presumed to be from the Bolivarian Intelligence Service.[372] Rafael Sivira, the youth coordinator for opposition party Radical Cause, and another unidentified person were also detained.[373]

Maduro administration figures Jorge Rodríguez and Diosdado Cabello suggested two days after the election that Machado and González go to prison.[369][374][375] Agreeing with Rodriguez and Cabello, Maduro asked authorities to apply "maximum justice" to Machado and González, accusing them of being leaders of violent groups.[376] Cabello stated that 10 political figures would be detained and go to prison.[369] Costa Rica offered political asylum to opposition politicians, including González, Machado, and those hosted by the Argentine Embassy in Caracas;[377][378] Machado responded with gratitude but stated she would "continue the struggle".[379]

On 1 August, Machado published a letter in The Wall Street Journal, stating that she had gone in to hiding "fearing for my life, my freedom, and that of my fellow countrymen from the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro"; in the letter, she laid out the evidence she said she had from the vote tallies supporting PUD's win, and stated that Maduro had expelled witnesses from the polls, while the witnesses "protected the voter receipts with their lives throughout the night" of the elections.[380]

Diplomatic relations

Peru recalled its ambassador from Venezuela[18][337] and expelled the Venezuelan diplomats from Peru;[381][382] Panama suspended diplomatic relations with Venezuela.[383] Venezuela also expelled diplomats from Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Panama and Uruguay and severed its relationship with Peru; as of 1 August, Brazil took over running the Caracas embassies of Argentina and Peru.[384][385]

Maduro ordered Argentina to abandon its embassy in Caracas within 72 hours, by 1 August, and cut power to the embassy residence, which was surrounded by security forces. The Argentine Embassy has given asylum to six of Machado's campaign workers since December 2023, when the Maduro administration sought their arrest while she was still a presidential candidate. The Argentine government said the asylum seekers must be given safe passage to leave with embassy personnel, but the Maduro administration did not agree to that condition;[359][386] Brazil assumed mediation of the situation with the asylum seekers in the embassy residence after Argentine diplomats were expelled.[384] Costa Rica has offered asylum to the six; international law affords protection of diplomatic personnel and political asylum seekers.[387]

Venezuela suspended flights between Venezuela and both Panama and the Dominican Republic after those countries requested a review of the election results.[388] It also ordered the temporary suspension of flights to Peru.[389]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The Washington Post[332] and The Wall Street Journal[354] say that Blinken did not recognize González as president-elect; The Guardian says that he did.[355]

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