TV Article Emmys 2016: Who will win and who should EW critic Jeff Jensen makes his picks By Jeff Jensen Jeff Jensen Senior Writer EW's editorial guidelines Published on September 16, 2016 12:00PM EDT Photo: Nicole Rivelli/FX; Michael Parmelee/USA Network; ABC The Emmys are here. Will The People v. O.J. Simpson win an abundance of verdicts or can Fargo pull an upset? Will The Americans triumph after years of being ignored or will Game of Thrones reign once again? Our TV critic Jeff Jensen tried to hack the Emmy database and steal the answers, but apparently he learned nothing from obsessively watching and recapping Mr. Robot. While he can’t tell you who WILL win, he does have opinions about who SHOULD win… and maybe who shouldn’t, too. Outstanding Lead Actor, Drama Kyle Chandler, Bloodline Rami Malek, Mr. Robot Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul Matthew Rhys, The Americans Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan Kevin Spacey, House of Cards Should Win: In any other year, my allegiance would be to Rhys, who has been excellent as a conflicted Reagan-era KGB agent since day one of The Americans and is finally getting props. But Malek’s electrifying, capture-the-imagination performance in the first season of Mr. Robot was the best acting turn of the 2015-2016 season by anyone on television, period, full stop, just mail him the trophy now. But I’ll be okay if… Rhys pulls the upset, or Odenkirk wins for his supremely deft mix of pathos and comedy in Better Call Saul. I’ll grumble if… Spacey wins for House of Cards. He was very good in a just-okay campaign for Frank Underwood, although he was downright snoozy in a few episodes – the ones in which Frank was in a coma. Outstanding Lead Actress, Drama Claire Danes, Homeland Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder Taraji P. Henson, Empire Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black Keri Russell, The Americans Robin Wright, House of Cards Should Win: Russell. In an emotionally tumultuous year for Soviet subversive Elizabeth Jennings – a near-death experience, bonding and betraying a mission-turned-best-friend, breaking down and building back up – Russell was raw, real, and riveting. But I’ll be okay if… Maslany finally triumphs for executing the hardest acting job on television, playing multiple fully-realized and completely distinct characters in her soon-to-end sci-fi clone drama. Whether it’s this year or next, Emmy should bling her. Also, you know who was also absolutely fantastic? Wright, who refined and perfected diamond-hard Claire as she seized power and destiny. (She also directed some of the season’s strongest episodes.) I’ll grumble if… previous winners Danes and Davis were called to stage, even though they were very good, and only because I’d like to see Russell (or Maslany) get their due. Outstanding Lead Actor, Comedy Anthony Anderson, black-ish Aziz Ansari, Master of None Will Forte, Last Man on Earth William H. Macy, Shameless Thomas Middleditch, Silicon Valley Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent Should Win: Tambor. He put scenes on film that are seared into my brain and make me laugh and weep and cringe upon recall. Maura dancing with herself in the mirror was one of the most moving moments of the past TV season. But I’ll be okay if… Anderson scores for anchoring and rocking black-ish, which had a triumphant, ascendant year. I’ll grumble if… actually, I won’t grumble at all. This is a strong category stocked with deserving candidates, and I’d be thrilled if any of them won. Outstanding Lead Actress, Comedy Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep Ellie Kemper, The Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt Tracee Ellis Ross, black-ish Laurie Metcalf, Getting On Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie Should Win: Kemper. Her Kimmy Schmidt was a more flawed creation in season 2, and Kemper nailed every challenge thrown at her. She played the peculiarities and tones of her broad character just right, keeping Kimmy constantly winsome and never wearying and even deepening her over the course of an exceptional, next level season for that show. But I’ll be okay if… Metcalf won for Getting On, an underappreciated gem. And it would correct the injustice of Metcalf not getting the award she should have won: best guest actress in Horace and Pete. (Margo Martindale picked up the trophy last week for, like, one or two scenes in The Americans. I love me the Margo, and I adore The Americans, but no. Just no.) I’d grumble if… Schumer pulled an upset. Not that anyone’s expecting it, and to be honest, I think Schumer is fantastic. I just think sketch comedy performers should have their own acting categories. Outstanding Comedy Series black-ish Master of None Modern Family Silicon Valley Transparent Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt Veep Should Win: black-ish. This is its moment… But I’d be okay if… Veep scored a repeat for being a comedy of the moment, for helping us laugh through our current high stakes and terrifying real-world presidential contest. (It also handled a showrunner transition in impressive fashion, without missing a beat or sabotaging the show’s voice.) I’ll grumble if… five-time winner Modern Family returned to the stage for a sixth trophy. This show is an all-timer for being both extremely good and paving the way for the surge of TV diversity. That said, it’s time the show facilitated diversity another way and allowed other shows to win all the Emmys forever and ever, Amen. Outstanding Drama Series: The Americans Better Call Saul Downton Abbey Game of Thrones Homeland House of Cards Mr. Robot Should Win: The Americans. Not because it’s overdue, but because it was the best drama of last season, period. Don’t let dazzling, big budget battle scenes or cutting edge unreliable narrator storytelling or sentimental attachment to beloved British melodrama fool you into thinking otherwise… But I’d be KINDA okay if… Game of Thrones or Mr. Robot took the trophy, because there was amazing artfulness in those dazzling, big budget battle scenes and that cutting edge unreliable narrator storytelling. If The Americans has to lose to something, these two are acceptable to me. On the other hand… I’d grumble if… Downton Abbey won, because this beloved British melodrama has been nothing but sentimentality for most of its consistently fine and consistently overrated life. RELATED: Hear EW’s Emmy Predictions Onward to some quick takes. My picks in bold. Outstanding Supporting Actor, Drama Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones Kit Harrington, Game of Thrones Michael Kelly, House of Cards Jon Voight, Ray Donovan Harrington came back to life in Game of Thrones, but Banks gave rich life to Better Call Saul as he attempted the folly of staying principled in an immoral business. Outstanding Supporting Actress, Drama Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones Lena Headey, Game of Thrones Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey Maura Tierney, The Affair Maisie Williams, Game of Thrones Constance Zimmer, UnREAL All those Game of Thrones actresses were great, but they were essentially lead actresses in separate arcs of story. Smith has won plenty. The Emmy should go to Zimmer, poignantly nasty and so real in the reality show satire in UnREAL. Outstanding Supporting Actor, Comedy Louie Anderson, Baskets Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine Ty Burell, Modern Family Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt Tony Hale, Veep Keegan-Michael Key, Key and Peele Matt Walsh, Veep Yep. That’s right. A tie. Deal with it. Outstanding Supporting Actress, Comedy Anna Chlumsky, Veep Gaby Hoffman, Transparent Allison Janney, Mom Judith Light, Transparent Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live Niecy Nash, Getting On Light provided essential support to Tambor, in a performance that was bold in its own right. Outstanding Limited Series American Crime Fargo The Night Manager The People v. O.J. Simpson Roots An amazing collection of shows, but let the coronation begin: The People v. O.J. Simpson will be king of the Emmy prom. Outstanding Television Movie A Very Murray Christmas All the Way Confirmation Luther Sherlock: The Abominable Bride A weak field. I’m going with Sherlock: The Abominable Bride, which was a flawed work, for sure, but I admired the mad, noodle-cooking storytelling, and it scratched my Sherlock itch. Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Bryan Cranston, All the Way Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: The Abominable Bride Idris Elba, Luther Cuba Gooding Jr., The People v. O.J. Simpson Tom Hiddleston, The Night Manager Courtney B. Vance, The People v. O.J. Simpson Vance should win, but don’t be surprised if Cranston muscles past him and goes all the way here. Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Kirsten Dunst, Fargo Felicity Huffman, American Crime Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar & Grill Sarah Paulson, The People v. O.J. Simpson Lili Taylor, American Crime Kerry Washington, Confirmation How I appreciate Emmy for remembering and honoring American Crime, but it’s Marcia! Marcia! Marcia! – Paulson! – for the win. Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Sterling K. Brown, The People v. O.J. Simpson Hugh Laurie, The Night Manager Jesse Plemons, Fargo David Schwimmer, The People v. O.J. Simpson John Travolta, The People v. O.J. Simpson Bokeem Woodbine, Fargo Brown was a revelation in The People v. O.J. Simpson. If he loses votes to his deserving costars, I bet Laurie benefits the most. But Woodbine would be my choice after Brown. Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Hotel Olivia Coleman, The Night Manager Regina King, American Crime Melissa Leo, All the Way Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Hotel Jean Smart, Fargo Smart blew me way as the matriarch of a Midwest crime family trying to keep her crumbling clan together while fighting off a city slicker takeover. Moving faster: Outstanding Variety Talk Series Last Week Tonight with John Oliver Outstanding Variety Sketch Series Documentary Now! Outstanding Reality-Competition Program American Ninja Warrior (Seriously! I dig this show!) Outstanding Writing, Drama Sam Esmail, Mr. Robot, “eps.1.0_hellofriend.mov” Outstanding Writing, Comedy Aziz Ansari, Alan Yang, Master of None, “Parents” Outstanding Directing, Drama Miguel Sapochnik, Game of Thrones, “Battle of the Bastards” Outstanding Writing, Limited Series, Movie or Dramatic Special D.V. DeVincentis, The People v. O.J. Simpson, “Marcia, Marcia, Marcia” Outstanding Directing, Comedy Jill Soloway, Transparent, “Man of the Land” Outstanding Directing, Limited Series, Movie or Dramatic Special Ryan Murphy, The People v. O.J. Simpson, “From the Ashes of Tragedy” The Emmys coverage on ABC kicks off at 7 p.m. ET with the red carpet, followed by the show at 8 p.m. ET hosted by Jimmy Kimmel.