Big Tech earnings start this week, with a broad range of companies reporting. As well, key inflation data is due as is an update on GDP. Last week, markets were volatile and there was a theme of rotation out of Information Technology and into small caps. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.7% for the week, the S&P 500 lost 2%, and the Nasdaq fell 3.7%. Year to date, the Dow is higher by 7%, the S&P is up 15%, and the Nasdaq is 18% ahead. On the economic calendar, Friday is the big day, with fresh inflation data. Economists are looking for more evidence that inflation is tracking lower. If it is, that should help build the case for a Fed rate cut. This week, the data comes in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE). In May, both PCE and Core PCE came in at 2.6%. We expect both to slow to 2.4% for June. In other economic news, Existing Home Sales data will be reported on Tuesday. On Wednesday, New Home Sales come out. On Thursday, GDP and Durable Goods Orders hit the tape. And on Friday, Personal Income and Personal Spending will be updated. On the earnings calendar, Monday brings news from Verizon. On Tuesday, Alphabet, Tesla, Comcast, Coca-Cola, GE Aerospace, General Motors, Philip Morris, UPS, and Lockheed Martin. On Wednesday, IBM, AT&T, Chipotle, and Ford. On Thursday, Northrop Grumman, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Juniper Networks, AstraZeneca, and Union Pacific. And on Friday, 3M, Bristol Myers Squibb, Colgate-Palmolive, and Charter Communications. Earnings are coming in 11.1% higher this quarter than a year ago, but only 14% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far. Expectations are for 8%-12% earnings growth in the second quarter. This follows 8% growth in 1Q and 10% in 4Q23. At Argus, we forecast that full-year 2024 EPS will come in 8%-9% better than last year. Last week, mortgage rates fell 12 basis points to 6.77% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices rose a penny to $3.50 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 2Q and calls for expansion of 2.7%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow indicator forecasts 3.01% for July CPI. The next Fed rate decision is on July 31, with odds at 4% for a cut. Then in mid-September, there is a big jump in odds for a cut, to 98%. That spike follows that recent news that inflation is tracking down and the labor market is showing some weakness. As the probability is so high for a rate cut at the September meeting, the odds have jumped to 60% for a second cut in November. In December 18, odds increase to 94% for that second cut. All of this data is according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
