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Global imbalances and structural change in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Timothy J. Kehoe
  • Kim J. Ruhl
  • Joe Steinberg

Abstract

Since the early 1990s, as the United States has borrowed from the rest of the world, employment in U.S. goods-producing sectors has fallen. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we find that rapid productivity growth in goods production, not U.S. borrowing, has been the most important driver of the decline in goods-sector employment. As the United States repays its debt, its trade balance will reverse, but goods-sector employment will continue to fall. A sudden stop in foreign lending in 2015?2016 would cause a sharp trade balance reversal and painful reallocation across sectors, but would not affect long-term structural change.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl & Joe Steinberg, . "Global imbalances and structural change in the United States," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:489
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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph B. Steinberg, 2020. "The macroeconomic impact of NAFTA termination," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 821-865, May.
    2. Sposi, Michael, 2022. "Demographics and the evolution of global imbalances," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 1-14.
    3. Ravikumar, B. & Santacreu, Ana Maria & Sposi, Michael, 2019. "Capital accumulation and dynamic gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 93-110.
    4. Jacek Rothert & Jacob Short, 2014. "Non-Traded Goods and Capital Flows to Developing Countries," Departmental Working Papers 47, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    5. Robert Z. Lawrence & Lawrence Edwards, 2013. "US Employment Deindustrialization: Insights from History and the International Experience," Policy Briefs PB13-27, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, 2018. "Globalization and Structural Change in the United States: A Quantitative Assessment," 2018 Meeting Papers 1027, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Campbell, Douglas L., 2020. "Relative Prices and Hysteresis: Evidence from US Manufacturing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. George Alessandria & Horag Choi & Dan Lu, 2017. "Trade Integration and the Trade Balance in China," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(3), pages 633-674, August.
    9. Eddy Bekkers & Michael Landesmann & Indre Macskasi, 2017. "Trade in Services versus Trade in Manufactures: The Relation between the Role of Tacit Knowledge, the Scope for Catch up, and Income Elasticity," wiiw Working Papers 139, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    10. Logan T Lewis & Ryan Monarch & Michael Sposi & Jing Zhang, 2022. "Structural Change and Global Trade," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 476-512.
    11. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl & Joe Steinberg, 2013. "What will happen when foreigners stop lending to the United States?," Economic Policy Paper 13-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    12. Barattieri, Alessandro, 2014. "Comparative advantage, service trade, and global imbalances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-13.
    13. Alvarez, Fernando, 2017. "Capital accumulation and international trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1-18.
    14. Javier Cravino & Sebastian Sotelo, 2019. "Trade-Induced Structural Change and the Skill Premium," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 289-326, July.
    15. Díaz, Antonia & Franjo, Luis, 2016. "Capital goods, measured TFP and growth: The case of Spain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 19-39.
    16. Joseph Steinberg, 2018. "International Portfolio Diversification and the Structure of Global Production," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 195-219, July.
    17. Ryan Monarch & Jing Zhang & Logan Lewis, 2017. "Structural Change and Slowdown of International Trade," 2017 Meeting Papers 1542, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Michael Sposi & Ana Maria Santacreu & B Ravikumar, 2016. "Capital Accumulation and Welfare Gains from Trade," 2016 Meeting Papers 1637, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Jacek Rothert & Jacob Short, 2023. "Non-Traded Goods, Factor Markets Frictions, and International Capital Flows," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 158-177, April.
    20. Talan İşcan, 2015. "Windfall Resource Income, Productivity Growth, and Manufacturing Employment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 279-311, April.

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