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Volatility Forecasting via MIDAS, HAR and their Combination: An Empirical Comparative Study for IBOVESPA

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  • Douglas G. Santos
  • Flavio A. Ziegelmann

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  • Douglas G. Santos & Flavio A. Ziegelmann, 2014. "Volatility Forecasting via MIDAS, HAR and their Combination: An Empirical Comparative Study for IBOVESPA," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 284-299, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:33:y:2014:i:4:p:284-299
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    1. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2006. "Econometrics of Testing for Jumps in Financial Economics Using Bipower Variation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30.
    2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Roughing It Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling, and Forecasting of Return Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 701-720, November.
    3. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E., 2008. "Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 122-133.
    4. Martens, Martin & van Dijk, Dick & de Pooter, Michiel, 2009. "Forecasting S&P 500 volatility: Long memory, level shifts, leverage effects, day-of-the-week seasonality, and macroeconomic announcements," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 282-303.
    5. Xin Huang & George Tauchen, 2005. "The Relative Contribution of Jumps to Total Price Variance," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 456-499.
    6. Scharth, Marcel & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2009. "Asymmetric effects and long memory in the volatility of Dow Jones stocks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 304-327.
    7. Muller, Ulrich A. & Dacorogna, Michel M. & Dave, Rakhal D. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V. & von Weizsacker, Jacob E., 1997. "Volatilities of different time resolutions -- Analyzing the dynamics of market components," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 213-239, June.
    8. Ghysels, Eric & Sohn, Bumjean, 2009. "Which power variation predicts volatility well?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 686-700, September.
    9. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
    10. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521692106 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Lars Forsberg & Eric Ghysels, 2007. "Why Do Absolute Returns Predict Volatility So Well?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 31-67.
    12. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280, May.
    13. McAleer, Michael & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2008. "A multiple regime smooth transition Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 104-119, November.
    14. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    15. Eric Ghysels & Arthur Sinko & Rossen Valkanov, 2007. "MIDAS Regressions: Further Results and New Directions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 53-90.
    16. Pong, Shiuyan & Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 2004. "Forecasting currency volatility: A comparison of implied volatilities and AR(FI)MA models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2541-2563, October.
    17. Bollerslev, Tim & Law, Tzuo Hann & Tauchen, George, 2008. "Risk, jumps, and diversification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 234-256, May.
    18. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
    19. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kim, Jae H., 2008. "Quantile forecasts of daily exchange rate returns from forecasts of realized volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 729-750, September.
    20. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    21. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2004. "The MIDAS Touch: Mixed Data Sampling Regression Models," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt9mf223rs, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    22. Patton, Andrew J., 2011. "Volatility forecast comparison using imperfect volatility proxies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 246-256, January.
    23. Peter Hansen & Jeremy Large & Asger Lunde, 2008. "Moving Average-Based Estimators of Integrated Variance," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 79-111.
    24. Christian T. Brownlees & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2010. "Comparison of Volatility Measures: a Risk Management Perspective," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 29-56, Winter.
    25. Patton, Andrew J. & Sheppard, Kevin, 2009. "Optimal combinations of realised volatility estimators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 218-238.
    26. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521871549 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Koopman, Siem Jan & Jungbacker, Borus & Hol, Eugenie, 2005. "Forecasting daily variability of the S&P 100 stock index using historical, realised and implied volatility measurements," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 445-475, June.
    28. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Estimating quadratic variation using realized variance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 457-477.
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